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I think in some ways I should have been in the last session and Congress should have been in this

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session because we already broached the environment and I'm not going to be talking about it much.

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What I really want to stress is the idea that we've tended to think of deindustrialisation as an established fact in the 19th century,

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which I think is basically incorrect.

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I think there is a really interesting question which remains which is there was industrialisation everywhere in the world,

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but could it have been greater? This is, to my mind, is a much more interesting question than the deindustrialisation.

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One gene to when I said this to him in Lausanne got really annoyed with me.

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And this is kind of old style and dependency theory idea of deindustrialisation.

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I think there is a sense that the West may have prevented the creation of modern industry.

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And the question is, does it do it through colonialism? Does it do it through soft power?

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And Kyra, of course, has shown that writing the rules of the game doesn't always go the way you expect it.

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And that in many ways, free trade in Asia benefits in Japan much more than it benefited those who wrote those rules.

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But this is the soft power model. Now what do I mean by industry?

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I got caught up with this by Maxine Berg, who I think she's here,

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but I gave a version of this paper in Warwick, and so I'm not sure that I've got a good definition.

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I think these three ideas we talked about energy already machinery factories.

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The trouble is that these things you can find in different combinations at different times, in different places.

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I've tried, I'm doing as a case study of the Philippines trying to look at industrialisation in the late Spanish period in the 19th century,

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and I tried to use installed horsepower as a kind of rough index.

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But the trouble is that even the Americans with their efficient census of 1982 to three, they asked the question to everybody.

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And roughly half or more of the people didn't answer the question.

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So we don't have what I hoped would be a kind of benchmark of the end of the Spanish period.

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This is what we all expect factories to look like on modern industries look like.

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And of course, half the time it doesn't. Then there's been a recent shift from the kind of job to type dependency theory to Jeffrey Williamson,

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who's arguing it's not really imperialism, whether soft or hard.

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It's really free trade, because the terms of trade favoured are Ontario's labour moved into that sector.

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I think that's that's true. That's quite a good point.

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But then he argues that that involves lower skills, lower productivity and higher price volatility.

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So this is his book. I think we spoke a little bit about books which engender debate, but which are not terribly good.

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I would say this is in that category. I quite strongly disagree with virtually everything, he says, but it is quite it's quite a provocative book.

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And yes, Jeff himself, of course, has taken part in some of the deliberations of organised by Patrick.

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So our problems with Jeff's thesis. One of them, which I'd like to encourage you to look at more, is the question of futures markets.

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A lot of the price volatility is hedged by the emergence of futures markets.

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And of course, it's true that direct producers don't often have access, particularly peasants.

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Nevertheless, the people who they sell to the merchants do have access to futures markets,

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and the question of volatility then is, I think, more complicated than Williamson says.

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I also think that the labour productivity thing is a chicken and egg problem.

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I think in many ways there is low productivity in the global south.

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But is it a result of moving into primary production or is it a cause of I mean, is there are there other causes rather which lower productivity?

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We all know about stinginess of colonialism, but one of the things which I've been struck by my own work is how colonialism was actually

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quite often less stingy in the provision of public goods than independent states.

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I've done a comparison between the Gold Coast of modern Ghana and Bahia in Brazil, and my God,

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the Brazilian authorities were a lot stronger than the Gold Coast authorities in terms

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of providing anything at all for the taxes that they screwed out of the coca producers.

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Oops. Sorry, wrong one.

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So this is a monument to the first known futures markets in rice futures markets in Japan, surprisingly early, many ways under the 17th century.

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There is a slight countervailing current, and I'm a very great fan of Ken Pomerantz is not the great divergence,

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but the Pacific in the age of early industrialisation, which is the edited collection by Ken,

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which I think actually is a very good set of studies show.

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How you get industrialisation occurring right around the world from the early 19th century,

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this is the book itself with a very unexciting Rutledge cover, which Routledge seems to specialise in.

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So one sort of strand of this is the question of artisans, and we all know the idea that artisans are ruined.

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Karl Marx is famous statement cos Karl Marx have never been to India, so he didn't see the bones of the cotton weavers.

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But this is the sort of person we're talking about.

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And if you put in deindustrialisation, if you type it into the internet, this is the image that springs up.

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So they've gone from producing cotton cloth, being the workshop of the world to producing raw cotton.

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Now this cotton is almost certainly industrially baled. Right?

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So it's actually a very bad illustration of the idea that you get a complete wipe out.

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In fact, as to funk art, of course, is very famously shown. Artisans don't disappear.

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They this is also true elsewhere. So this is your tanker's book, which I think is an extremely important milestone in this.

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But we've got other ones. We've spoken very little about the Middle East at this conference, I think is a bit unfortunate.

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The Middle East has been largely left out, but we get a similar process sent by Syria for anarchy by part of IS, maybe for Iran again,

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very important and very under use book because you wrote in French and not as French is no longer really much of a second language and most recently,

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this, this author's being quoted earlier for something else. But this is just come out on the history of chin crafts now.

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Crafts that's fairly loaded word in its own right now.

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It's undoubtedly the fact that some artisans were negatively affected.

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But of course, the point is that weavers actually benefited from the rise of cheap, reliable factory made threads.

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So we get a kind of dual situation where spinning goes backwards, but weaving develops.

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Much less known, I think, is in fact, the dyes and embroideries benefited from the creation of cheap factory made cloth.

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I've looked at this for batik, for instance, and for embroidery batik in Indonesia,

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embroidery in the Middle East, and we get exactly the same pattern.

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And most interesting of all,

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I think in years tanker's book is the the idea that certain artisans turn into industrialists slowly by kind of process of osmosis.

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And I think his case study of the brass in Moradabad, near Delhi, this is one of these workshops, which, you know, looks very traditional.

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But the fascinating thing is that they invest in machinery in energy and become really particularly in the Second World War,

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come off to become really important industrialists.

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We also tend to underestimate the industrialisation of services because we always think that we do have to be talk-,

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we're talking about tangible goods. But in fact, what we find is the service sector from the 19th century diverges quite strongly.

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Bits of the service sector become very highly industrialised and the repair and maintenance workshops for

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this newly industrialised services transport services very often turn into industrial enterprises over time.

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I think it's how Dick has looked at this for Indonesia, where you get the shift from repair and maintenance into manufacturing.

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This is, you know, fairly obvious pictures, although this one is interesting because this is a railway which had very little economic benefit.

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This is really to justify the Ottoman sultan continuing as the Khalifa of the faithful.

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This is, of course, a service sector which is very slow to industrialise, and nowadays it has industrialise.

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But you could argue that it's very retarder kind of sector.

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But the thing I'm most interested in is the is the export substitution industrialisation through the processing of so-called raw materials.

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And I think this is one of the areas we've got to be really careful with our language. We use this term raw materials all the time.

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And if you look at them, they're often not very raw at all. And they're increasingly less raw.

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So that all this emphasis on finished consumer goods, I think, needs to be thrown out the window.

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That's not really what's important at the beginning of the 19th century.

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It's the adding of value through and through industrial investment in so-called raw materials, sometimes also industrially extracted.

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This is an early photograph of gold mines in South Africa, where industrialisation is going to the actual extraction process.

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But most of the times to South Africa again, the industrialisation is occurring at the processing stage, the extraction of gold from the oil.

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So we get all sorts of reasons, perhaps for this industrialisation to occur, some of which are technical.

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And that's all. That said, not to change the argument. You have to process stuff because it spoils.

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Right? I've worked on a number of different commodities where if you don't process them quickly,

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they're basically either dropped completely like meat and fish, or they become less effective in whatever they're meant to be doing.

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Also, to save transport costs of certain materials are very expensive transport,

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and if you process them at source, you actually reduce your transport costs very considerably.

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This is quite an interesting pick, just as from vector-borne of Thomas's history,

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when we get the real factory in the field, the sugar factory in the field and of course, with the locomotive in front.

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And Cuba is one of the most precocious areas in the world in the adoption of new industrialised transport services,

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which I think is often forgotten by which John Kerry Machado, for instance, says this is true came grinding.

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You can see what how sugarcane really is a factor in the field. Sugar packing is in colonial Taiwan.

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The Japanese had earlier developed sugar. This is a very interesting picture of a tea lost factor.

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I think this is in Java and actually being able to. You can see the the steam machinery right at the front.

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But a lot of this is actually not machine based industry.

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It's actually just providing loads of rooms in which you can do various things to the tea leaf.

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This is a modern examples from Mozambique cashew processing and meat and fish, I think often forgotten in this kind of non spoiling.

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Now we've got a real problem with statistics. I think one of the reasons why some of this has gone unnoticed is that customs service is right

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around the world tend to be quite conservative in the labelling of certain categories of goods.

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And once these established, they tend to go on forever.

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Although to be fair to customs authorities, they often introduced various footnotes and various subdivisions,

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which historians have rather cavalierly, I think, ignored. So this is a Spanish import statistics in which you get really interesting.

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I can't see a sorry bad photograph, but I think, ah, the cover is that's a highly processed, highly industrially processed good.

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And then we have cocoa in Ghana, which is virtually unprocessed,

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and the two are put in exactly the same category within the Spanish import statistics in 1898.

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This is another one of my famous examples.

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So creating factory in Japan, the product of this, which I think is so jam, is always, always called raw silk.

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There's nothing raw about this at all.

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I mean, this really is a crazy piece of of labelling, but really quite reputable historians have fallen into this trap of calling this raw silk.

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It's not. It's not raw. We have a real problem, which I'd be really glad of getting some help with,

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which is why the same commodities process to differing degrees in different places.

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I think there's a number of possible reasons for this. I don't think distance to markets which have been put forward is actually very important.

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But I think the available factors of production for setting up modern factory industry are probably much more important.

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So some extent colonies of rich or poor countries are important to this has to do with the degree of protectionism.

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So I give you the example here this is cassiterite sound, which is exported as such from the Jos Plateau in Nigeria.

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Instead of making it into tin, this is tin smelting in Australia.

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You can see what large scale industrial process this involves.

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Another example this is from Belize, where you're doing all the fashioning of the timber by hand.

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This is a Japanese electric sawmill in East Sumatra and exactly the same period where you've got a really high degree of mechanisation.

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And interestingly,

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the use of electricity in Indonesia is actually quite a pioneer in the use of electricity for manufacturing for reasons which are not entirely clear.

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So one of the reasons for this then, particularly in poorer and more backward metropolises,

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is that workers tried to stop colonial processing to save their jobs at home.

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Senegalese groundnuts a good example of this you can't press them into oil in Dakar because the workers in Marseilles want to keep their jobs.

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So here we have the ground not ready for export in which risk.

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And this is an early 19th century Marseilles soap factory. Interestingly, of course,

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moving from olive oil olive oil used to be the reason why there was certain manufacturing in this area to imported colonial groundnuts.

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So this export substitution industrialisation that I think is hugely benefited by free trade.

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The real economies of scale for the world market.

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Australia succeeds essentially on World Japan, as we had earlier, essentially on tea and silk better process than their Chinese rivals.

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I was interested to hear from currency was largely with firewood and charcoal, which I didn't know.

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It's just early stages of Japanese manufacture.

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This is a tea factory in Japan and tea labels, this is tea labels showing that some of the markets for Japanese tea were in North Africa,

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which is something I'm working on at the moment.

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Consumer goods, I think, are more effects for some consumer goods industrialisation from the early 19th century.

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But it's unusual. Indian case, which is ignored by Williamson, is largely a story of Indian yarn.

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Replacing British yarn in the Indian Ocean and Chinese sea markets have been then replaced by Japanese yarn and its term.

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Early textile mill in India, a certain amount of pretty uncompetitive consumer goods and ISI pushed through by settlers.

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Example from South Africa.

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And then we got the second period, which Williamson sees as a more positive period for industrialisation was, I think, in many ways,

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much more negative period when free trade collapses and nationalism becomes obsessed with import substitution industrialisation of consumer goods.

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Kwame Nkrumah in the gold has been a very good example of this. What we get then, is a very poor quality industry.

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It's poorly planned, poorly coordinated, badly integrated with artisans, very badly sighted.

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This is hashtag has some of the best critiques of particularly Turkish siting of import substitution industrialisation,

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which is just mind bogglingly crazy. And of course, we get better about my neighbour policies, which the most famous example is India.

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Setting up a sugar industry against Java basically through protectionist methods is a large sugar factory in colonial Java,

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and this is a sugar factory in India. Catalysts are, I think, terribly divided coming to capitalism at last.

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Metropolitan manufacturers the musées argument inefficient, declining sectors essentially tried to stop colonial industrialisation.

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Entrepreneurs and dynamic sectors think of developing it with the French thinking of Vietnam as a new Japan.

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This is Ramos's book is 1984 long time ago and yet in many ways, perhaps it's written in French again.

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Same problem has had less of an impact than myself expected. Jacques Marseille, a former Communist Communist militant,

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also noted that workers in the West were a very important group in trying to damp down colonial industrialisation in a time,

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of course, of growing structural unemployment.

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And Lenin argued in a slightly different vein, actually, that workers at home in the tropics were bribed by distribution of surplus value.

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But I think it that I say raise this really interesting question is to what extent organised

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labour was responsible for slowing down the industrialisation of the Third World.

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This is the take in long term sugar refinery. Why not refine?

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Why did you go through all these processes except refining a source?

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And this is the Iron Tin smelter of the built on supply, which caused great problems for the Malaysian Peninsula tin smelters,

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which were at that time already exporting tin as ninety nine point six per cent pure tin metal.

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So in conclusion, then I'm arguing against Jeffrey Williamson and saying that, eh, there was much more manufacturing than we thought.

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B that actually his periodisation is completely the wrong way round.

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The free trade period was a much better period than the final collapse of free trade, but I think we do need to do the spadework.

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We need to look at actual rates as far as possible of industrial growth in the global south.

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And we need to bear in mind that Massey's very productive, important contribution on the role of Western labour.

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Thank you.