1 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:14,840 Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Oxford Martin School. 2 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:22,850 And thank you for coming on this lovely day or not, not quite as nice has been for the last few days. 3 00:00:22,850 --> 00:00:28,880 It's an enormous pleasure to welcome you here this afternoon to a lecture. 4 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:35,060 African transformation economic development in the age of that, which is given by Carlos Lopez. 5 00:00:35,060 --> 00:00:39,740 Karzai is a very good friend of the school and spent quite a lot of time here. 6 00:00:39,740 --> 00:00:44,480 It's always nice to welcome someone who has a new and fascinating book out. 7 00:00:44,480 --> 00:00:52,140 It's even nicer when that book was actually written in this building, just in fact in the offices across there. 8 00:00:52,140 --> 00:00:55,590 So we're particularly proud of this cast. 9 00:00:55,590 --> 00:01:04,400 As Professor in the Mandela School of Public Governance and the University of Cape Town and is a visiting professor at Sales PO in Paris. 10 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:16,070 Because has had a long and very distinguished career and I can't mention everything, but he led, for example, several United Nations institutions, 11 00:01:16,070 --> 00:01:22,010 including the Economic Commission for Africa from 2012 to 2016, 12 00:01:22,010 --> 00:01:29,280 and has many other links with this country, including being a associate fellow at Chatham House. 13 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:43,570 So with no further ado, let me invite you to the lectern to give your lecture. 14 00:01:43,570 --> 00:01:49,600 Good afternoon. It's really a pleasure to be back in this city and at this school. 15 00:01:49,600 --> 00:02:02,170 Thank you, Charles, for the introduction. I'm very pleased to present to you my new book that was especially written here in 2017, 16 00:02:02,170 --> 00:02:10,360 and it was an attempt at the time to basically structure some of my thoughts after the experience of 17 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:18,910 working at the Economic Commission for Africa for years and being an actor in transformation processes, 18 00:02:18,910 --> 00:02:28,120 discussions in Africa, being very close to the African Union and trying to influence that agenda in different ways. 19 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:36,580 Very happy and excited that now the African Continental Free Trade Area has just been 20 00:02:36,580 --> 00:02:43,060 signed last year and the ratifications have reached a point where it can enter into force. 21 00:02:43,060 --> 00:02:54,640 This is a battle of many decades, and it's really something that can change the landscape quite significantly for reasons that I will mention to you. 22 00:02:54,640 --> 00:03:08,160 So the book is basically an attempt to try to revisit why Africa after more than doubling its GDP over the past 20 years. 23 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:15,510 And making progress in areas such as education and health, improving governance systems, 24 00:03:15,510 --> 00:03:20,610 creating the world's second most attractive region for foreign direct investment, 25 00:03:20,610 --> 00:03:28,050 reducing poverty slightly despite the explosion of the demography and rapid urbanisation. 26 00:03:28,050 --> 00:03:38,440 Why this continent is still very much in lack of real economic and social transformation. 27 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:44,800 Partly industrialisation, we know is the necessary step towards economic and social transformation, 28 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,610 and Africa has missed many opportunities to accelerate industrialisation. 29 00:03:48,610 --> 00:03:56,050 It's not like the continent doesn't have any experience with industrialisation. 30 00:03:56,050 --> 00:04:06,010 In fact, Africa produces right now about 500 billion dollars worth of goods from the industrial sector. 31 00:04:06,010 --> 00:04:12,640 But if you take into account the size of the continent and the size of significant 32 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:17,740 developments that took place in other regions of the world in industrialisation, 33 00:04:17,740 --> 00:04:24,700 certainly we can see that Africa lacks industrialisation not only because of its 34 00:04:24,700 --> 00:04:33,250 importance in terms of modernising the social and economic systems of production, 35 00:04:33,250 --> 00:04:40,630 but also because this is an indication that Africa has been very slow in structural 36 00:04:40,630 --> 00:04:49,450 transformation and that has implications in terms of absorbing its huge youth bulge. 37 00:04:49,450 --> 00:04:58,420 And as a result, you know, you have problems of employment, you have problems of the economy responding to the needs. 38 00:04:58,420 --> 00:05:05,110 It is important to mention from that angle that industrialisation is not just manufacturing. 39 00:05:05,110 --> 00:05:14,530 Manufacturing is obviously a very important dimension of it, but it's more about modernising the economic systems. 40 00:05:14,530 --> 00:05:19,840 And that includes modernising but also formalising the economic systems. 41 00:05:19,840 --> 00:05:25,000 If you have a reality that is mostly dominated by informal transactions, 42 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:37,480 obviously it's much more difficult to talk about policy proposals that are based on formal economies like policies, fiscal policy, taxation, etc. 43 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:47,410 So the book tries to revisit this dilemmas, try to understand the ecosystem that exists right now in most African countries. 44 00:05:47,410 --> 00:05:54,940 Obviously, taking into account the diversity of the continent because you have countries that are more industrialised than others, 45 00:05:54,940 --> 00:06:00,340 and it tries also to bring the debate to the industrial policy debate of today, 46 00:06:00,340 --> 00:06:08,410 which is a debate about how the technological impact is going to change the rules of the game with the robot ization, 47 00:06:08,410 --> 00:06:11,500 with automation and machine learning. 48 00:06:11,500 --> 00:06:19,990 It's going to be much more difficult to sustain certain types of jobs that were based in the equation where labour costs were very important. 49 00:06:19,990 --> 00:06:29,590 Now, labour costs are a dimension that is becoming less and less relevant in some of the policy decisions that you have to to make. 50 00:06:29,590 --> 00:06:40,990 And as a result, industrial policy from the perspective of certain specialists is now much more difficult and much more complex to undertake. 51 00:06:40,990 --> 00:06:45,580 For instance, let's take into account the notion of productivity. 52 00:06:45,580 --> 00:06:53,380 The terms, productivity and performance are commonly used within academic and commercial circles. 53 00:06:53,380 --> 00:06:58,200 They are, however, rarely adequately defined or explain. 54 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:07,830 Indeed, they are often confused and considered to be interchangeable, along with terms such as efficiency, effectiveness, profitability, 55 00:07:07,830 --> 00:07:17,490 measurement and improvement regimes are often built without a clear understanding of what is being measured and what needs to be improved. 56 00:07:17,490 --> 00:07:23,580 This can be regarded as simply a pragmatic approach to improvement or a missed opportunity to fully 57 00:07:23,580 --> 00:07:31,120 understand and therefore optimise important factors relating to competitiveness and success. 58 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:38,430 I mention all of this being much more complex when a lot of the dimensions of productivity, 59 00:07:38,430 --> 00:07:46,830 effectiveness and efficiency are influenced by algorithms rather than what we used to attribute to human interventions. 60 00:07:46,830 --> 00:07:55,020 Manufacturing value addition, for instance, which is the way you know economists measure the contribution of manufacturing to GDP, 61 00:07:55,020 --> 00:08:01,050 are now very much in question as a good measurement. 62 00:08:01,050 --> 00:08:08,460 There are some authors like rather and close to Joseph Stiglitz that talk about premature deindustrialisation, 63 00:08:08,460 --> 00:08:19,140 where they try to identify factors that are influencing the peak period for industrial possibilities of manufacturing, 64 00:08:19,140 --> 00:08:25,650 adding to GDP becoming much more earlier in stages of development of countries. 65 00:08:25,650 --> 00:08:35,850 And therefore, you know, African countries as late comers industrialisation will be the subjects of this premature industrialisation possibilities. 66 00:08:35,850 --> 00:08:44,250 In the book, I try to challenge that. I try to demonstrate that in fact, there are lots of negative set that associated with industrialisation, 67 00:08:44,250 --> 00:08:49,230 but also some positive elements that Africans can build on. 68 00:08:49,230 --> 00:09:00,120 The book tries to go beyond economic arguments alone, even if we can go quite a great deal in detail on issues relating to industrialisation. 69 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,770 Because it's a strong proponent for the structural transformation. 70 00:09:04,770 --> 00:09:12,180 The book has tried to go into the politics, into the social dimensions as well, 71 00:09:12,180 --> 00:09:20,130 and it tries to increase our understanding of the meaning of transformation from an historical perspective, 72 00:09:20,130 --> 00:09:25,590 all the way to revisiting some concepts that started in the heart of Europe in the 18th 73 00:09:25,590 --> 00:09:32,640 century when Industrial Revolution took place on two of the contemporary discussions of today. 74 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:40,620 There are eight challenges that that identified as the most relevant for transformation. 75 00:09:40,620 --> 00:09:50,940 They range from the choice of development policies, the reforms of the the policy space, the respect for diversity, 76 00:09:50,940 --> 00:10:01,350 which is quite evident in a continent with more languages than the other in the world and more cultural diversity than the other in the world. 77 00:10:01,350 --> 00:10:06,000 The issues relating to agricultural productivity, 78 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:15,720 revitalising the social contract and what its meaning is when we revisit the concept of sustainable development, taking climate change into account. 79 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:22,170 And finally, the last chapter is about harnessing the relationship between Africa and China. 80 00:10:22,170 --> 00:10:28,380 It's picked on purpose because this this partnership is going to define, 81 00:10:28,380 --> 00:10:34,170 to a large extent, the future of the continent's relations with the rest of the world. 82 00:10:34,170 --> 00:10:39,650 The controversial link between democracy and development is not avoided in the book, 83 00:10:39,650 --> 00:10:46,620 and I tried to institute the debate based on the African intellectual contributions to this debate. 84 00:10:46,620 --> 00:10:55,890 I avoid categorisations that are favoured outside Africa, such as liberal versus socialist systems and the like. 85 00:10:55,890 --> 00:11:03,570 The tendency today is for the division between all totalitarian minded developing states and open democracies, 86 00:11:03,570 --> 00:11:10,050 which unfortunately often produce no patrimonial or rent seeking a. 87 00:11:10,050 --> 00:11:13,920 And I try to divide the countries in Africa more or less in these two categories. 88 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:22,490 The reformers and the rent seekers, I go into the detail about how democracies like Botswana demolishes the scenic channel for development. 89 00:11:22,490 --> 00:11:29,400 What we can learn from them. The book also assesses some other aspects that they are influencing our politics. 90 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:38,520 Like, for instance, the Washington consensus exposing in the book the internal tensions and arguments that contributed 91 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:44,970 for the changes that occurred and made made the Millennium Development Goals possible, 92 00:11:44,970 --> 00:11:54,750 basically moving from the period to decades, 80s and 90s, where most of the discussions in Africa were on prescriptive policies. 93 00:11:54,750 --> 00:12:03,390 Structural adjustment policies toward. And after the 2000 where the Millennium Development Goals became the mantra 94 00:12:03,390 --> 00:12:08,430 and what was the most important contribution from the Millennium Development 95 00:12:08,430 --> 00:12:14,940 Goals discussion was that we moved out of prescriptive policies into goals 96 00:12:14,940 --> 00:12:20,460 and obviously with different ways of attaining those goals becoming possible, 97 00:12:20,460 --> 00:12:25,500 but not as much as probably we we think it was. 98 00:12:25,500 --> 00:12:33,750 And the book goes into the detail, starting by revisiting the Washington consensus orthodoxy, 99 00:12:33,750 --> 00:12:38,880 looking into how internal debates of the institutions have promoted it. 100 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:43,740 Like the IMF, the World Bank were taking shape and how, for instance, 101 00:12:43,740 --> 00:12:54,000 the evaluation department of the IMF was so critical of the ways in intellectual attitudes of 102 00:12:54,000 --> 00:13:05,470 the IMF staff UM became possible and how Africans have to take advantage of this opportunity. 103 00:13:05,470 --> 00:13:09,660 The windows of opportunity, where there are doubts, 104 00:13:09,660 --> 00:13:18,360 where there are discussions to basically assert a bit more that interests and create more policy space for themselves. 105 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:26,160 In Africa, the weak performance of structural adjustment policies is not questioned. 106 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:36,360 For instance, the continent GDP grew only one percent between 79 and 92 compared to countries in East Asia and the Pacific regions, 107 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,670 about five percent during the same period. 108 00:13:38,670 --> 00:13:49,500 Precisely because they were not playing with the same policy recommendations and were actively promoting industrial policies, 109 00:13:49,500 --> 00:14:01,380 I think after the financial crisis of 2008 2009, all the neo classical notions of market efficiency are now being questioned more openly. 110 00:14:01,380 --> 00:14:11,700 The choice of Taiwanese then Justin Lin, a former military man who joined Mainland China after, you know, 111 00:14:11,700 --> 00:14:23,520 being born in and making a good career in Taiwan to become chief economist of the World Bank was also a surprise. 112 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:33,000 It was, in fact, um, a good indication that the more the model of development of his country based on the role of the state, 113 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:41,280 as we know, China was now welcome in the discussions within the Washington circles. 114 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:50,820 It's true that Justin Lin did not last too long as chief economist of the World Bank, but his Monacan, his sprint is very much there. 115 00:14:50,820 --> 00:14:55,110 The book reviews also the point of view of several other economists, like Thomas Piketty, 116 00:14:55,110 --> 00:15:03,300 author of The Monumental Capitalism of the 21st Century that analyses the deepening of inequalities in modern societies tries 117 00:15:03,300 --> 00:15:13,980 to translate that debate into African inequality issues that are quite significant or somewhat like What is your blood sugar? 118 00:15:13,980 --> 00:15:19,890 Which was the former chief economist of the IMF. 2008 2015. 119 00:15:19,890 --> 00:15:27,150 Or believe that the pendulum and moved from the more neo liberal traditional ways of 120 00:15:27,150 --> 00:15:35,010 perceiving the markets to giving a much more prominent role to the state as a regulator, 121 00:15:35,010 --> 00:15:41,340 but also as a facilitator of some of the structural transformation processes? 122 00:15:41,340 --> 00:15:46,620 Try to compare some of the African developments to countries outside Africa, 123 00:15:46,620 --> 00:15:53,820 because that's the best way to demonstrate that Africans are often shortchanged. 124 00:15:53,820 --> 00:16:00,090 Like, for instance, if we look into what happened and the way Ukraine on Ireland was treated, 125 00:16:00,090 --> 00:16:07,080 it was very different from the way we treat the same African countries in terms of the list of conditionalities, 126 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:14,250 the type of policy recommendations, etc. So it's very important to bring these type of comparisons. 127 00:16:14,250 --> 00:16:19,530 And I think all of this is basically to try to give the impression that we need 128 00:16:19,530 --> 00:16:24,930 to ensure agency on the part of the Africans to ensure agency Africans have 129 00:16:24,930 --> 00:16:30,780 to demonstrate that they really are prepared for what the world considers to be 130 00:16:30,780 --> 00:16:35,370 the three pillars of the current transformation processes in the continent. 131 00:16:35,370 --> 00:16:43,830 They have to be much more ambitious, much more sophisticated and much more coherent now of the ambitions. 132 00:16:43,830 --> 00:16:47,880 It's basically about bringing on board the megatrends, 133 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:57,260 like the megatrends of demography and the megatrends on the climate that are going to oblige every country to set a vision that is not just. 134 00:16:57,260 --> 00:17:05,210 Based on what they know right now, but what may happen, which is quite phenomenal in many respects, 135 00:17:05,210 --> 00:17:12,590 but also being capable of the fighting, particularly the young people, because, you know, 136 00:17:12,590 --> 00:17:18,050 the average age in continents right now is 19 years old is five people to actually 137 00:17:18,050 --> 00:17:24,200 contribute to that vision and all the reform minded leaders who really are in this, 138 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,500 uh, sort of, uh, frame of mind. 139 00:17:27,500 --> 00:17:38,690 Otherwise, you know, you will not have that sophistication because we are now exposed to value chains that have become all global. 140 00:17:38,690 --> 00:17:44,450 So if you want to do anything that is prominent in terms of economic development, 141 00:17:44,450 --> 00:17:53,240 particularly if we talk about industrialisation, but it's also relevant for other areas like like services or agriculture. 142 00:17:53,240 --> 00:18:01,220 One needs to know the value chains globally and gets to know what are the issues of opportunities that one given country has. 143 00:18:01,220 --> 00:18:07,730 You cannot too many. So this is about focus. It's about priority setting. 144 00:18:07,730 --> 00:18:15,050 And this is the most difficult part because most countries believe that they have to do everything. 145 00:18:15,050 --> 00:18:21,470 It is very difficult to go and try to revisit the concept of competitive advantage. 146 00:18:21,470 --> 00:18:25,790 Some believe that competitive advantage is static is what you know. 147 00:18:25,790 --> 00:18:37,640 The hearse has given a country either his geolocation or its riches in terms of natural resources or some, 148 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,140 you know, neighbourhood that facilitates certain types of economic activities. 149 00:18:42,140 --> 00:18:52,310 Those are all static elements. You can create your own competitive advantage by being very aggressive but also sophisticated. 150 00:18:52,310 --> 00:19:00,980 So the book goes into some examples like, you know, Vietnam creating a naval industry out of nothing or, you know, 151 00:19:00,980 --> 00:19:05,810 different countries doing things that were not really in anybody's mind that created 152 00:19:05,810 --> 00:19:11,270 their own competitive advantage out of this sophistication and then coherence, 153 00:19:11,270 --> 00:19:24,920 because we're at the time where planning and the way management of economic activities was shaped and based on sectoral policies is over. 154 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:30,020 It's not that sectoral policies have disappeared, but to make a difference today. 155 00:19:30,020 --> 00:19:33,860 You need to have a certain number of very well can see it, 156 00:19:33,860 --> 00:19:41,930 but very few priorities the thought of national undertakings and from those national undertakings that everybody has 157 00:19:41,930 --> 00:19:51,440 to identify what is their collaborative dimension to make them happen and countries that are really making it happen. 158 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:55,220 And in the discussion, we can, you know, talk about some of them. 159 00:19:55,220 --> 00:20:04,610 They have this capacity to make their machinery coherent and not just the state machinery or the administration of the state, 160 00:20:04,610 --> 00:20:11,540 but also bringing the economic actors, private sector and others into the picture, too. 161 00:20:11,540 --> 00:20:18,650 To make this coherence, you know, sort of a national national undertaking. 162 00:20:18,650 --> 00:20:25,020 So if I had to metaphorically. 163 00:20:25,020 --> 00:20:37,260 Synthesise the book, it could have been with the title that I chose, and the publisher refused because it felt that it was not commercial enough. 164 00:20:37,260 --> 00:20:49,290 And the title was, you know, the smooth seas don't make skilful sailors because of the difficulties that the continent is facing. 165 00:20:49,290 --> 00:20:57,720 You can actually be quite skilful, and if you are you, you are a winner in terms of transformation. 166 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,710 It's not given to everybody. It's not given to every country. 167 00:21:01,710 --> 00:21:05,790 So few will succeed. Most will not. 168 00:21:05,790 --> 00:21:14,310 But that's what makes the whole process very dynamic. And that's why, you know, I wrote the book so we can have the challenges of the dilemmas. 169 00:21:14,310 --> 00:21:23,700 And at the same time, some of the solutions that can respond to the most difficult debates that are taking place around each one of the dilemmas. 170 00:21:23,700 --> 00:21:37,270 Thank you. Thanks very much indeed, tell us, which gives us plenty of time for discussion. 171 00:21:37,270 --> 00:21:47,530 Who would like to go first with a question to our lady over there? 172 00:21:47,530 --> 00:21:55,930 I think that was a fascinating talk. And you mentioned the Millennium Development Goals as a real game changer, 173 00:21:55,930 --> 00:22:04,090 and it made me wonder what your thoughts were about the Sustainable Development Goals and whether they're going to be another game changer, 174 00:22:04,090 --> 00:22:10,330 a continuation, a positive or or a barrier to this development. 175 00:22:10,330 --> 00:22:21,640 Well, I did say that the Millennium Development Goals were extremely important to move us from the prescriptive policies period to, you know, 176 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:28,600 sort of a more open policy space because shifting the debate towards goals gave 177 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:33,930 the latitude for different countries to select how they would reach those goals. 178 00:22:33,930 --> 00:22:36,670 But there are three difficulties with the Millennium Development Goals that are 179 00:22:36,670 --> 00:22:41,800 important to mention if we are going to talk about the Sustainable Development Goals. 180 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,530 The first issue is that they were not universal. 181 00:22:44,530 --> 00:22:55,780 So it was still a compact of sorts between developed countries giving money or support to developing countries to do the right thing. 182 00:22:55,780 --> 00:23:02,140 And, you know, the compact worked in the following way you deliver good governance, 183 00:23:02,140 --> 00:23:07,540 meaning countries that are going to receive that support developing countries, 184 00:23:07,540 --> 00:23:13,630 you deliver good governance and will support you to attain these goals and the goals were attained. 185 00:23:13,630 --> 00:23:24,010 Actually, they were surpassed universally, but mostly due to the excellent performance of about two countries China and India, 186 00:23:24,010 --> 00:23:30,610 as we know, because of their demographic size. They made all the goals being attained. 187 00:23:30,610 --> 00:23:39,370 The second problem with these goals is that it translated universal defined, not universal application, 188 00:23:39,370 --> 00:23:45,880 obviously defined targets to national realities, and that is completely unfair. 189 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:57,550 It's like asking, you know, I'm going to use a metaphor is like asking a marathon is to run with the sprinter. 190 00:23:57,550 --> 00:24:03,160 You see, uh, you have a country that has to reduce poverty by half. 191 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:10,870 But let's say it has eight percent of poor running at the same time as the other countries that has to reduce poverty by half. 192 00:24:10,870 --> 00:24:18,040 But there's 80 percent of poor. So reducing 40 percent of your population is not the same as four percent. 193 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:26,060 So but we basically apply these rules. As if the countries were all the same, and they obviously they are not the same. 194 00:24:26,060 --> 00:24:37,460 And this is particularly important because Africa obviously coming from a much lower base, was set by this definition to fail. 195 00:24:37,460 --> 00:24:45,380 So it was not possible for all of us, for countries in Africa to succeed because they had a long way to go. 196 00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:50,590 And even if their level of effort was superior and when I was in economic commission for Africa, 197 00:24:50,590 --> 00:24:57,800 we made the statistics of efforts for the MDGs implementation rather than attaining the targets. 198 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:04,700 And then out of the 20 most impressive performances, about 15 were African. 199 00:25:04,700 --> 00:25:08,100 But, you know, they were not given any credit for it. 200 00:25:08,100 --> 00:25:17,500 So that was the second problem, the third problem is that the Millennium Development Goals were based on an assumption. 201 00:25:17,500 --> 00:25:21,310 That was still coming with basic needs in mind. 202 00:25:21,310 --> 00:25:31,750 It was mostly about, you know, making sure that the social is fixed rather than real transformation, for instance, 203 00:25:31,750 --> 00:25:39,820 what you will find in the Sustainable Development Goals is very much akin to structural transformation as defined by the economists. 204 00:25:39,820 --> 00:25:45,310 You know, you have like infrastructure is the domestic resource mobilisation is there. 205 00:25:45,310 --> 00:25:50,440 You have even support for industrialisation there. 206 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:58,340 But all of this was absent from the Millennium Development Goals. So it's important just to mention this because. 207 00:25:58,340 --> 00:26:08,810 It was a good effort because it changed this from prescriptive to, you know, more policy space, but it was not enough an effort. 208 00:26:08,810 --> 00:26:16,390 Now the Sustainable Development Goals have gone too far in the pendulum, in the other direction. 209 00:26:16,390 --> 00:26:25,980 Because of the success of the Millennium Development Goals to a large extent. The ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals are unattainable. 210 00:26:25,980 --> 00:26:34,530 And any expert in a specific area of the 17 areas will tell you my area is unattainable. 211 00:26:34,530 --> 00:26:42,300 It's aspirational, is so aspirational that is like you reading the Bible or the Koran. 212 00:26:42,300 --> 00:26:53,040 You know, it's it's not possible. We are not going to in 15 years finished with all diseases, all the problems of education on Earth, oil poverty. 213 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,540 The slogan is Leave no one behind. 214 00:26:57,540 --> 00:27:04,770 I mean, very nice. But that's that's an ideology that's not really a target. 215 00:27:04,770 --> 00:27:07,800 And I don't think it is going to be possible. 216 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:19,780 Now we have even built a second problem because the aspirations are so high, you have created a discussion about the truth. 217 00:27:19,780 --> 00:27:23,620 That really bothers me because more and more people, 218 00:27:23,620 --> 00:27:33,070 they see the Russian organisations and state and governments organisations as proclaiming these things that are not attainable, 219 00:27:33,070 --> 00:27:44,290 and then this creates frustrations, and we have not really calculated the risk of creating expectations that cannot be met. 220 00:27:44,290 --> 00:27:51,760 And I think that is really a big problem. And then the third problem that I see with the Sustainable Development Goals is 221 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:59,950 that the Sustainable Development Goals are supposed to be this time universal, meaning as much for Sweden as it is for Burkina Faso. 222 00:27:59,950 --> 00:28:11,140 But is it? Is it going to work like that? Obviously, what we can expect is that we'll have a report prepared by UN agencies for Burkina Faso, 223 00:28:11,140 --> 00:28:21,070 but who is going to produce really a report for Sweden? I don't even dare mention the US. 224 00:28:21,070 --> 00:28:25,840 So this is going to come to the fore. It's not yet there. 225 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,210 It's coming to the fore. And last but not least. 226 00:28:30,210 --> 00:28:38,040 Every single international agency, not just the UN or the international financial institutions, even a big NGO. 227 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:44,580 Every single international organisation is faced with decreased funding. 228 00:28:44,580 --> 00:28:48,990 To justify not being a bit cynical, you forgive me. 229 00:28:48,990 --> 00:28:55,160 To justify what they do, which is the best of intentions, obviously. 230 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,490 They need more resources than what they have right now. 231 00:28:58,490 --> 00:29:06,890 So the only way they can attract the attention of the public at large is by demonstrating our bed. 232 00:29:06,890 --> 00:29:13,490 Their specific area of concern is so you have these aspirations that are going all the way to the top and then 233 00:29:13,490 --> 00:29:21,560 the people that are in charge saying it's going so bad because they need the money to attain the aspiration. 234 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:26,810 So this gap is going to be very difficult to manage. Carl, can I ask you a question? 235 00:29:26,810 --> 00:29:31,370 And it's about a narrative you hear quite a negative narrative about South African. 236 00:29:31,370 --> 00:29:33,560 You touched upon it a bit in your talk. 237 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:42,680 And that is that the way large areas content developed is by utilising the comparative advantage of low wages and argument to South America to Asia. 238 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:49,100 Did it? And then a negative bet is that Africa is missed that boat, that automation, 239 00:29:49,100 --> 00:29:56,780 especially in Asia South America, means that South Africa can't change advantage in that. 240 00:29:56,780 --> 00:30:04,200 Do you think there's truth in that narrative? And if there is, how will South Africa be able to do that? 241 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:14,510 I think there is truth in it, obviously, because we are entering a stage of the industrial systems where machine learning 242 00:30:14,510 --> 00:30:19,280 is occupying a lot of functions that were previously occupied by humans, 243 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,080 but it's still very expensive. 244 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:28,850 And you know, part of the research about job losses due to automation has actually been done here at Oxford Martin School. 245 00:30:28,850 --> 00:30:35,180 So I had the privilege of going through what has been produced, and I'm very familiar with the debate. 246 00:30:35,180 --> 00:30:45,880 I was a member of the Global Commission for the Future of Work of the ILO, which, by the way, is co-chaired by the Prime Minister of Sweden. 247 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:51,160 And the president of South Africa, and this is very interesting because both of them are now, 248 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:55,840 of course, in leading positions in their countries, but we are trade unionists in the past. 249 00:30:55,840 --> 00:31:02,580 So they kind of have this background and we can say, you know, one of them has become a big capitalist, too. 250 00:31:02,580 --> 00:31:13,240 But that's what I think it's interesting in this debate is to is to not confuse how 251 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:23,590 we measure costs across the world with how we measure cost in a given economy in, 252 00:31:23,590 --> 00:31:29,750 let's say, an African country, because obviously if you are talking about the world. 253 00:31:29,750 --> 00:31:36,200 What serves as a reference point is the most productive in the world, and therefore, you know, 254 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:46,790 the labour costs are going to be measured against that level of productivity and Africans being late comers will not fare well in that comparison. 255 00:31:46,790 --> 00:31:52,610 But this comes with one advantage lots of disadvantages with one advantage. 256 00:31:52,610 --> 00:31:57,710 Amongst the disadvantages just to start is the fact that obviously we cannot imitate the 257 00:31:57,710 --> 00:32:02,510 industrialisation that others have done because those conditions are no longer available. 258 00:32:02,510 --> 00:32:06,230 It's not just the labour costs is the intellectual property regimes, 259 00:32:06,230 --> 00:32:13,760 it's the regulatory systems that are in place right now, like certifications of health, environment and you name it. 260 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:22,880 It's the fact that trade conditions have changed dramatically is the fact that supply chains have become extremely complex. 261 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:30,360 We can go on with the list all the way to Africa has less infrastructure, Africa is less skilled labour and so on. 262 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:38,800 So those are the disadvantages. We cannot do import substitution like Latin America did. 263 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:45,980 We cannot do export oriented industrialisation like Southeast Asia and China did. 264 00:32:45,980 --> 00:32:51,660 As the main vehicle for industrialisation, but there is one thing we can do. 265 00:32:51,660 --> 00:33:01,340 Look at our demographic dimensions. The population is going to increase to two billion by 2050. 266 00:33:01,340 --> 00:33:09,980 Most of the growth that Africa has experienced in the last 20 years has been propelled by internal consumption. 267 00:33:09,980 --> 00:33:13,500 Precisely because of these demographics. Now, 268 00:33:13,500 --> 00:33:20,370 this first line of consumption that people have when they have a bit of income is going to be 269 00:33:20,370 --> 00:33:32,730 used mostly on low manufacturing value addition products and also on agro processed products. 270 00:33:32,730 --> 00:33:38,880 This is very interesting because if you create a space within Africa that is protected 271 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:43,740 with some tariff regimes like the free trade area that is being established right now, 272 00:33:43,740 --> 00:33:49,920 you have possibilities for agro processing that are immense because Africans will consume first, 273 00:33:49,920 --> 00:34:00,270 you know, your pasta, your yoghurt and you name it before they go for more expensive things. 274 00:34:00,270 --> 00:34:04,380 And in terms of the labour costs themselves, 275 00:34:04,380 --> 00:34:13,470 there are certain types of industries where it's still competitive to go human rather than full automation. 276 00:34:13,470 --> 00:34:18,810 You can do part of automation. Full automation is still a bit too expensive. 277 00:34:18,810 --> 00:34:23,070 This is going to offer a window of opportunity that is very short in time. 278 00:34:23,070 --> 00:34:28,230 So Africans have to rush and occupy that so they can scale up quickly. 279 00:34:28,230 --> 00:34:37,600 But it is true it is still possible to do it. And some countries are doing it with success that is mixed, but it's it's happening. 280 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,200 Thank you. I should have reminded people that we webcast this. 281 00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:46,900 So when you ask a question, do you remember your broadcast, Simon and David? 282 00:34:46,900 --> 00:34:54,690 Yeah, thank you. Mentioned another megatrend as climate change in relation to your framework of sophistication and coherence. 283 00:34:54,690 --> 00:35:02,760 Where do you see that elements of preparedness, response and opportunities in relation to climate change within the continent? 284 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,180 I think it's in the first element of vision. 285 00:35:06,180 --> 00:35:13,980 If you don't include the two most important megatrends in the continent, demographic and climate, you are going to fail. 286 00:35:13,980 --> 00:35:20,260 And I'll tell you how much the link with industrialisation is powerful. 287 00:35:20,260 --> 00:35:29,000 Most of the debates on climate change tend to, you know, box the Africans on the discussion about adaptation. 288 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:34,500 And obviously, there's nothing wrong with adaptation. Most of the things that are. 289 00:35:34,500 --> 00:35:44,040 Very difficult to argue in terms of policy debate is because it's not necessarily wrong, it's like the is not necessarily that is wrong. 290 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:48,990 It's it's the nuance. And of course, adaptation is good. 291 00:35:48,990 --> 00:35:57,960 But Africans should not limit themselves to adaptation alone because if they are going to now industrialise as late comers, 292 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:06,180 they will have to do it differently. They cannot do like the others with smokestacks and basically doing it the old fashioned way. 293 00:36:06,180 --> 00:36:14,580 Africans can generate power from renewables at the cost that is matching fossil fuel, 294 00:36:14,580 --> 00:36:19,890 if not going to take advantage because it's going to be cheaper than fossil fuels. 295 00:36:19,890 --> 00:36:26,040 No other region in the world when they industrialised and this luck, that's a look. 296 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:36,060 So we can go straight to green energy. So that's just the energy element that we know now that you can build in a completely 297 00:36:36,060 --> 00:36:40,290 different way than what you used to build before can build in a sustainable way. 298 00:36:40,290 --> 00:36:46,350 You don't need to imitate the way factories were conceived in the past can go straight 299 00:36:46,350 --> 00:36:52,560 into a much more modern and sustainable way of constructing the same for infrastructure. 300 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,840 And the list goes on. So climate has to become part of this equation. 301 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:08,020 That's why in the vision, if you know leaders, but not just leaders, if a country does not have that type of ambition is going to miss the boat. 302 00:37:08,020 --> 00:37:19,150 Thank you, David. And David MacDonald wild card, as you mentioned, various attributes and aspects and opportunities about Africa that are special. 303 00:37:19,150 --> 00:37:28,030 And one of the things about that continent is its environment and indeed its wildlife, and we happen to know that those are enthusiasms of yours. 304 00:37:28,030 --> 00:37:37,420 So considering that specialness, do you see opportunities for Africa to develop to industrialise alongside its 305 00:37:37,420 --> 00:37:44,710 environment that can be developed in ways we have not seen in other parts of the world? 306 00:37:44,710 --> 00:37:57,130 I would say, David, that is even a must because Africans come late to this game again, just not to repeat, they have to leapfrog. 307 00:37:57,130 --> 00:38:03,800 But in leapfrogging, they really can learn a lot from what is the right thing to do. 308 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:13,940 For instance, I'm going to take the example of my little country, Guinea-Bissau, which is an amazingly biodiverse country. 309 00:38:13,940 --> 00:38:22,550 So when the government started discussing what should be done in terms of structural transformation for Guinea-Bissau, 310 00:38:22,550 --> 00:38:28,070 they asked my advice and I went there and sat with the policymakers on a retreat 311 00:38:28,070 --> 00:38:34,310 and we had a very long discussion and eventually that made emerge a plan that, 312 00:38:34,310 --> 00:38:38,660 unfortunately, because of political instability, has not been implemented so far. 313 00:38:38,660 --> 00:38:46,130 And the plan was all about making Guinea-Bissau a biodiverse jewel because 314 00:38:46,130 --> 00:38:51,620 that was the most important ingredient for the transformation of the country. 315 00:38:51,620 --> 00:38:52,760 And, you know, people say, 316 00:38:52,760 --> 00:39:00,350 what is the link with industrial industrialisation because we tend to think industrialisation always in terms of manufacturing first. 317 00:39:00,350 --> 00:39:09,380 But in fact, this is about modernising it. It's bringing the economy to the industrial era of transactions and relations more formal. 318 00:39:09,380 --> 00:39:13,220 So we have less informality. We have the capabilities of, you know, 319 00:39:13,220 --> 00:39:19,220 basically providing a social contract that is much more enhanced than what exists 320 00:39:19,220 --> 00:39:26,030 in terms of subsistence and informality that people leave out of right now. 321 00:39:26,030 --> 00:39:34,100 And for that, we need a modern economic structure that modern economic structure in a country like that, it's about sustainable tourism. 322 00:39:34,100 --> 00:39:41,510 That's industrialisation. And, you know, making sure that, you know, with Echo Echo Resorts and so on, 323 00:39:41,510 --> 00:39:51,650 you can take advantage of of of the of the opportunities offered by nature, the same in terms of fisheries. 324 00:39:51,650 --> 00:40:02,150 The way fisheries can help a country is it is very different from the way it is exploited right now. 325 00:40:02,150 --> 00:40:04,490 We have these agreements with the European Union, 326 00:40:04,490 --> 00:40:13,280 each one of the coastal countries in Africa that basically are exhausting the seas, and there is no need to go that route. 327 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:23,450 If you actually have the introduction of aquaculture, different types of industrialisation that actually protects the biodiversity. 328 00:40:23,450 --> 00:40:29,650 So it's always possible to link the two. Question here. 329 00:40:29,650 --> 00:40:37,120 Hello. You mentioned that the last chapter of your book was about the role of China in transforming Africa. 330 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:43,210 Can you just briefly explain how you see that playing out? 331 00:40:43,210 --> 00:40:51,380 First, I try to correct the perception that we are very important for China. 332 00:40:51,380 --> 00:40:58,590 I think China is very important for Africa, but the reciprocal. 333 00:40:58,590 --> 00:41:08,060 View is is missing. I think for China, Africa is just a reservoir of sorts, because if you see, 334 00:41:08,060 --> 00:41:13,350 for instance, in terms of foreign direct investment, outward foreign direct investment. 335 00:41:13,350 --> 00:41:23,220 Africa represents about four percent of Chinese foreign direct outward investment. 336 00:41:23,220 --> 00:41:28,510 That is as much as Pakistan, the entire continent receives as much as Pakistan. 337 00:41:28,510 --> 00:41:33,910 So that puts things into perspective when it comes to investment, when it comes to trade. 338 00:41:33,910 --> 00:41:42,350 It is true that the trade dimensions have evolved over time and we now see trade the Chinese number one. 339 00:41:42,350 --> 00:41:54,880 African trade partner. As a country, yes, but if you take the EU 28, soon, 27, we don't know. 340 00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,350 It's much more important than China by far. 341 00:41:58,350 --> 00:42:07,320 But what is fascinating is that what is our place in terms of being a trading partner for China and Africa is like No. 342 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:16,050 17 as a continent. Whereas for Europe, we are number three after the US and China were the third. 343 00:42:16,050 --> 00:42:20,920 Trading partner of Europe. Europe is number one for us. 344 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:27,480 We are number three for the. And I think that tells you that the relationship and the partnerships have to 345 00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:33,910 be shaped in a very different way from what the debate right now is offering. 346 00:42:33,910 --> 00:42:40,420 The other very important aspect that I bring in the book is the African agency in its relationship with China, 347 00:42:40,420 --> 00:42:48,070 because less talked about is the fact that China receives foreign direct investment from Africa, 348 00:42:48,070 --> 00:42:55,150 that China as a very large African community living in one of their cities, Gwangju, 349 00:42:55,150 --> 00:43:05,860 that basically serves as the most important link for a lot of trading relations with the continent. 350 00:43:05,860 --> 00:43:13,300 And I revisit some of the other aspects that are quite interesting. For instance, the fact that now you have six African airlines that fly to China, 351 00:43:13,300 --> 00:43:19,330 and only last year, China for the first time started flying to to Africa. 352 00:43:19,330 --> 00:43:30,800 So there is some agency on the part of the Africans, and for those who don't know the largest of the largest enterprises in Africa. 353 00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,320 Is Naspers based in Cape Town, 354 00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:43,460 just basically I.T. communications group that invests in different parts of the world and one of their assets is in Tencent, 355 00:43:43,460 --> 00:43:46,940 which is the third largest I.T. company in China. 356 00:43:46,940 --> 00:44:00,680 And just out of that investment, they have a capitalisation of about 120 billion dollars, which is in terms of size and importance. 357 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:10,760 I'm not comparing apples and oranges just to give you sort of reasoning about the agency of the Africans in terms of size is like, 358 00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:17,070 you know, uh, five times what China invest in Africa per year. 359 00:44:17,070 --> 00:44:22,430 So we have to put things in perspective. Thank you. 360 00:44:22,430 --> 00:44:28,980 At the moment. So thank you for the really interesting talk, 361 00:44:28,980 --> 00:44:35,600 and I'm interested that you say there was this demographic dividend keeps coming up on the youngest continent and so forth. 362 00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:40,310 And I'm curious to hear if you have examples of how countries have worked towards setting 363 00:44:40,310 --> 00:44:44,150 up the education sector to be able to handle this industrialisation and if at all, 364 00:44:44,150 --> 00:44:52,490 is anything happening in that space? Or will it still be a lot of imported ideas, imported foods, imported technologies? 365 00:44:52,490 --> 00:45:02,990 Yes. Some countries are very, very much aware of the fact that they need to prepare and that their use for the jobs of the future, 366 00:45:02,990 --> 00:45:13,880 not for the jobs of today. For instance, Ethiopia has decided to have universities across the country. 367 00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:22,580 You can question the quality of those universities, but the bottom line is this they have the lowest. 368 00:45:22,580 --> 00:45:30,190 They have the lowest urbanisation. In the continent, 20 percent. 369 00:45:30,190 --> 00:45:36,460 And that is because, you know, they basically decentralised their education system now. 370 00:45:36,460 --> 00:45:42,310 Also very interesting, they are now building some of the most innovative industrial parts. 371 00:45:42,310 --> 00:45:51,070 They have started with one in the USA. Now they are doing in different parts of the country that the total number of products planned 12th. 372 00:45:51,070 --> 00:45:57,820 Each one of these products is next to a university, one of those universities across the country. 373 00:45:57,820 --> 00:46:06,110 Outside of this, only one is not is actually. Now, I I'm quite familiar with the was industrial park, 374 00:46:06,110 --> 00:46:14,180 which was the first one because it has been the subject of a lot of studies, including from many people here in in Oxford, 375 00:46:14,180 --> 00:46:18,650 because of its fascinating combination of innovations, 376 00:46:18,650 --> 00:46:27,020 some not yet to the point where you can judge whether they were successful or not, but everybody is accompanying them very closely. 377 00:46:27,020 --> 00:46:34,600 And I really find it fascinating that, you know, the University of Iowa that. 378 00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:41,980 Shares a wall with the industrial park, so it's really neighbour. 379 00:46:41,980 --> 00:46:49,090 Has been reoriented in terms of its offering to basically correspond to the needs of the park. 380 00:46:49,090 --> 00:46:52,760 You know, you have it's a park is specialised in Techstars, 381 00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:58,690 so you have people that are doing chemistry because they work with the collar in the collaring and so on. 382 00:46:58,690 --> 00:47:07,900 You have people that are textile export, all kinds of things relating to the employability of of those people. 383 00:47:07,900 --> 00:47:15,670 And we can say that Ethiopia has been very successful so far in attaining at least two things that we can measure. 384 00:47:15,670 --> 00:47:19,240 One is reducing the fertility rate. 385 00:47:19,240 --> 00:47:29,140 Second, reducing urbanisation that is quite significant, coming from the second largest population in the continent, you know. 386 00:47:29,140 --> 00:47:34,780 And I think it's a good example, but we have other examples in Rwanda and Mauritius. 387 00:47:34,780 --> 00:47:44,140 They are introducing universities that are so innovative and so different from anything that has been experimented so far, 388 00:47:44,140 --> 00:47:46,870 not just in the continent, even worldwide. 389 00:47:46,870 --> 00:47:56,410 Like this, African Leadership Academy has now, uh, produced, uh, one of the Africans to be recognised in the Time magazine. 390 00:47:56,410 --> 00:48:01,010 100 the most famous influential people. 391 00:48:01,010 --> 00:48:07,600 You know, the value of that is what it is. I mean, I'm not giving too much importance to it, but I know the gentleman is Fred. 392 00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:17,080 Swaniker is a Ghanaian, and he's really quite impressive by bringing completely different ways of understanding the role of higher education. 393 00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:20,650 But some someone dreaming is fine. 394 00:48:20,650 --> 00:48:28,870 But when he when he gets the backup that he's getting from the likes of the president of Rwanda or the government of non-issues, 395 00:48:28,870 --> 00:48:34,450 it's something to take notice. Thank you. Thank you. 396 00:48:34,450 --> 00:48:40,420 She must have a doctoral student in business school. 397 00:48:40,420 --> 00:48:50,600 Thank you. Professor Canners. Uh. My question is to add to I don't know whether you can give me to two questions. 398 00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:57,870 And the first question is on MTG and stages. 399 00:48:57,870 --> 00:49:00,900 In the course of your dog, 400 00:49:00,900 --> 00:49:16,800 I'm afraid you are not specific that it appears no statistics on how many African countries and 10 MDG fully before the estimates are in, 401 00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:26,400 my question is this the cost of your work? Nigeria is a key African country, which I'm afraid. 402 00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:32,910 MDG was a very critical policy of the. 403 00:49:32,910 --> 00:49:39,450 Videos, government and the current deputy deputies as children of an Indonesian, 404 00:49:39,450 --> 00:49:50,930 Amina Mohammed was the head of the MDG goals, do you what do you see is wrong in Nigeria and concepts in terms of MDG? 405 00:49:50,930 --> 00:49:57,660 A. Means that's the key question. Second question Nigeria is here. 406 00:49:57,660 --> 00:50:05,870 Oyo Rich Nation is known globally. Well, it appears that the oil and money. 407 00:50:05,870 --> 00:50:15,650 Receipts have to help the poor to such an extent and policy. 408 00:50:15,650 --> 00:50:25,580 I mean. Regulation of a policy subsidy issue, functionality, functionally less functioning refineries. 409 00:50:25,580 --> 00:50:32,960 Issues which have a bit of no transparency in the industry and the cost of your work. 410 00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:42,030 What is is wrong with Nigeria in terms of the flying economy so that the unemployment, 411 00:50:42,030 --> 00:50:48,650 which is critical at this current time and the three percent as we speak? 412 00:50:48,650 --> 00:50:57,260 And then is there anything you can speak about Nigeria positive way and the negative aspects? 413 00:50:57,260 --> 00:51:03,200 Thanks so much. Well, of course, I follow Nigeria very closely because being the largest economy in the continent, 414 00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:08,840 its influence is immense, but also because it's the largest country in terms of population. 415 00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:16,940 So both are reasons for being quite curious about everything that happens in Nigeria. 416 00:51:16,940 --> 00:51:23,510 And I would say also because Nigeria has incredible talent and innovation in many areas like, 417 00:51:23,510 --> 00:51:29,330 for instance, creative industries that are one way of defining sort of the future. 418 00:51:29,330 --> 00:51:34,850 Nigeria is by far the most talented African country. 419 00:51:34,850 --> 00:51:46,340 To the point that surprise, surprise in rebasing exercise, the the contribution of creative industries for GDP has surpassed agriculture. 420 00:51:46,340 --> 00:51:50,480 So it's something that people normally don't know. 421 00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:58,790 So definitely Nigeria is very important in in many respects when it comes to the MDGs. 422 00:51:58,790 --> 00:52:09,030 I think all countries in Africa have adopted their messages as their sort of policy because it was still the time we are talking about. 423 00:52:09,030 --> 00:52:23,230 The early part of this century, the first decade, it was still the time where a lot of the policy debate was around what was agreed with the donors. 424 00:52:23,230 --> 00:52:31,600 Even countries that don't depend on donors. Nigeria doesn't depend on donors still were influenced by that policy debate. 425 00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:38,720 So, for instance, the main institution in the African Union dealing with economic issues is not by mistake. 426 00:52:38,720 --> 00:52:47,080 It's called the New Partnership for Africa, a new economic partnership for Africa, developing NEPAD partnership or these days. 427 00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:58,990 So it's like we can't define. The policies of development of the continent without the partnership, meaning the donors, because that's what is meant. 428 00:52:58,990 --> 00:53:08,110 And everything was about how this compact that I mentioned is going to work, we deliver good governance and receive support, 429 00:53:08,110 --> 00:53:15,820 and the support could come in different ways, one of which would be through concessional lending. 430 00:53:15,820 --> 00:53:20,950 What people don't realise is that concessional lending in the late part of the 431 00:53:20,950 --> 00:53:29,140 90s and concessional lending today has not increased significantly in size, 432 00:53:29,140 --> 00:53:36,290 but the economies have more than doubled. So what was available in terms of concessional lending? 433 00:53:36,290 --> 00:53:44,090 Then in what is today is diminishing significantly in relation to the size of the economies. 434 00:53:44,090 --> 00:53:51,950 Therefore, countries have to go and contract that or find other ways of financing their development, 435 00:53:51,950 --> 00:54:00,750 and part of it has to be through, you know, increase the efficiency of their fiscal fiscal machinery. 436 00:54:00,750 --> 00:54:08,070 So fiscal pressure in Africa being so low, if you don't collect taxes because you don't modernise the economy, 437 00:54:08,070 --> 00:54:17,410 you are going to be dependent on debt or you are going to be dependent on foreign direct investment if you can be attractive enough to get it. 438 00:54:17,410 --> 00:54:21,550 Or you forget about all that, I just said. 439 00:54:21,550 --> 00:54:29,710 And here comes Nigeria, and you leave out of the rest of your product that is sort of your your. 440 00:54:29,710 --> 00:54:41,050 Gift from God. In this case, oil, the problem with that is that it becomes like a vicious circle. 441 00:54:41,050 --> 00:54:51,580 You depend so much on oil that your public revenue is almost all based on oil, and therefore when the oil prices go down, your public revenues suffer. 442 00:54:51,580 --> 00:55:00,130 Part of those public revenues they use actually to subsidise oil consumption because the refined oil you don't refine it, you imported. 443 00:55:00,130 --> 00:55:09,490 So you have to subsidise it. And we end up with this difficulty that countries that tend to depend too much on the 444 00:55:09,490 --> 00:55:16,780 commodity don't reform enough in terms of having other sources of public revenue. 445 00:55:16,780 --> 00:55:22,390 And this is the problem with with Nigeria and its problem with Angola is a problem with a number of countries. 446 00:55:22,390 --> 00:55:29,710 If you go into the list of the most reform minded countries, you'll find that it's not a coincidence. 447 00:55:29,710 --> 00:55:34,820 Those who are leading the pack are not natural resources. Rich. 448 00:55:34,820 --> 00:55:42,620 Because they had to find another way. And the others are now nicely following that lead. 449 00:55:42,620 --> 00:55:47,720 If you don't have your own resources, how are you going to implement the MDGs? 450 00:55:47,720 --> 00:55:51,410 You are going to implement it partly with lip service because you don't have the 451 00:55:51,410 --> 00:55:59,150 revenues and it doesn't matter how brilliant and mindful those in charge of them are. 452 00:55:59,150 --> 00:56:06,380 If the structure of the economy doesn't change, we are not going to make the dent that is needed for, 453 00:56:06,380 --> 00:56:11,060 you know, the kind of aspirations that are in the images now in the SDGs. 454 00:56:11,060 --> 00:56:16,940 So it's not specific to Nigeria what I'm saying, but it definitely applies to Nigeria. 455 00:56:16,940 --> 00:56:19,640 So we just have time for the last question. 456 00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:29,300 Rick, thanks very much for the fascinating talk in discussions about development in Africa over the last 10 years or so. 457 00:56:29,300 --> 00:56:35,810 The same success stories have been named. Again and again, it's Botswana, it's Rwanda. 458 00:56:35,810 --> 00:56:41,210 You mentioned Mauritius, which is a tiny island, of course, over the next 10 years. 459 00:56:41,210 --> 00:56:47,420 Are we going to hear the same names over again? Or do you see other countries coming to the fore? 460 00:56:47,420 --> 00:56:53,330 And if so, which ones and why? Well, I can expand your list. 461 00:56:53,330 --> 00:57:02,450 I would include the number of other countries that are really making incredible changes in terms of their economic policy. 462 00:57:02,450 --> 00:57:12,020 I will include in that list, you know, countries like Morocco that has accelerated its industrialisation as very coherent 463 00:57:12,020 --> 00:57:17,300 policies for industrialisation is doing quite significant transformations right now. 464 00:57:17,300 --> 00:57:27,170 I can include countries like Djibouti and Togo, small countries, but with ports that have become huge logistical centres. 465 00:57:27,170 --> 00:57:35,060 Djibouti, now the largest port in East Africa and Lomi, the largest port in West Africa. 466 00:57:35,060 --> 00:57:41,630 I can include countries like other small islands like Cape Verde that is growing at more than five percent. 467 00:57:41,630 --> 00:57:44,870 I can include countries like Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, 468 00:57:44,870 --> 00:57:57,260 Ghana that are actually very consequential in their reforms and are changing completely their infrastructure and the way they are dealing with it. 469 00:57:57,260 --> 00:58:06,170 And I would include countries that are not doing very well in terms of economic growth, but they are transforming like Namibia. 470 00:58:06,170 --> 00:58:10,670 And the reason they are not having a very significant economic growth is because they are 471 00:58:10,670 --> 00:58:16,880 part of a customs union with South African and South African economy not growing enough. 472 00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:25,790 They are penalised significantly in terms of the value of the rand and the way that transactions depend so much on South Africa. 473 00:58:25,790 --> 00:58:34,370 So my list is growing. Now, what I think is important is for us to bear in mind that in the last 24 months. 474 00:58:34,370 --> 00:58:40,620 Twenty four months, we had 19 changes of leaders in Africa. 475 00:58:40,620 --> 00:58:47,860 That means almost one per month. You get the rest. 476 00:58:47,860 --> 00:58:58,360 Thanks very much, Colin. And the visitor programme the Martin School is due to the generosity of Lillian Martin, who gave us the gift to win that, 477 00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:07,270 and Lillian wanted us to be enabled to bring some of the world's leading thinkers on solution oriented ideas and research to Oxford and to the school. 478 00:59:07,270 --> 00:59:14,260 And you can say in Call us our perfect visitor. Thank you so much for coming back and launching your book here. 479 00:59:14,260 --> 00:59:21,460 For those of you who want to buy the book, we have plenty of copies outside the added benefit of it being signed by us as well. 480 00:59:21,460 --> 00:59:45,323 So please do come and join us for a glass of wine to talk further to call us and join me in thanking college for a fabulous talk.