1 00:00:05,300 --> 00:00:19,510 So we have. I feel like a broken man did not made very much coming to the office all afternoon, 2 00:00:19,510 --> 00:00:27,100 my name is Sam because I lead the work here on the economics of Planetary Health funded by the Rockefeller Foundation. 3 00:00:27,100 --> 00:00:31,360 And over the years, I worked on climate policy. 4 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:45,970 There seems to be a constant engagement with this organisation called NRDC and is a fantastic organisation based in the US working in lots of places. 5 00:00:45,970 --> 00:00:49,330 And today we're going to hear about one of those big places, 6 00:00:49,330 --> 00:00:56,740 which is so significant in this area of planetary health or climate change, or we can call it a number of things. 7 00:00:56,740 --> 00:01:01,720 So it's a great, great privilege to have Barbara Fenimore here. 8 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:06,700 Barbara's I'm going to talk about whether China will save the planet seems the 9 00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:11,140 ambitious thing to explain or find out whether it's true or false in the next hour. 10 00:01:11,140 --> 00:01:17,710 But we need to hear about it, don't we? Because there's China as a state itself. 11 00:01:17,710 --> 00:01:27,670 What does it do with its own people, its own resources, natural resources and financial resources to reduce the fact that air pollution kills over a 12 00:01:27,670 --> 00:01:35,890 million people a year and a huge mortality driven by bad planetary health practises in China? 13 00:01:35,890 --> 00:01:40,840 We were talking about the damages of the fertiliser subsidies in China. 14 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,180 We can't quite grasp the numbers at the moment, 15 00:01:43,180 --> 00:01:51,940 but we know if China could modify its fertiliser and agricultural practises that would have a global impact on emissions. 16 00:01:51,940 --> 00:01:55,820 But it's not just China, isn't it is China, the United States, India, 17 00:01:55,820 --> 00:02:06,640 three big players and they came together with 190 other countries in Paris in 2015 and reached an agreement. 18 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:10,240 That agreement was constituted over the nationally determined contributions. 19 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:19,480 Those contributions that all the countries could make and countries have gone away since since 2015 have been trying to get those underway. 20 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:23,890 We see that in the, you know, in the U.K., in the changes in our energy mixture. 21 00:02:23,890 --> 00:02:29,170 It makes the new ambitions to go to net zero, which is, of course, fantastic. 22 00:02:29,170 --> 00:02:37,840 But how does this play out in other countries in particular? We're going to hear about that from China today. 23 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:44,800 But of course, for us here in Oxford or in the U.K. or in the United States, a lot of people are quite grumpy about China. 24 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:50,030 Mr Trump is probably the grumpy person about China, but so is my brother in law. 25 00:02:50,030 --> 00:02:55,180 My brother in law lives in a very small village in the east coast of England in Suffolk. 26 00:02:55,180 --> 00:03:00,580 And he says, why should I change my behaviour when China's building a power station every week? 27 00:03:00,580 --> 00:03:05,470 We haven't been ascertaining whether that number that Barbara puts in her book for a period of time. 28 00:03:05,470 --> 00:03:09,160 I think 10 years ago, which direction it's going. 29 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:16,040 But is it actually building a power station in China or across the region in the scheme known as the Belt and Road Initiative? 30 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:22,810 So we need to look at China at home. We need to look at China abroad and look at China in the world. 31 00:03:22,810 --> 00:03:32,720 And so it's great to have you here. Barbara, you worked on China for nearly 30 years, so we couldn't ask for a better expert. 32 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:41,410 You'll be talking about your book. I've I've read it today, so it's a wonderful and accessible read. 33 00:03:41,410 --> 00:03:48,160 There are some copies at the back which you people should buy until they've all gone. 34 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,880 But please, please do that and please do stay afterwards. 35 00:03:51,880 --> 00:04:00,160 So for a drink as well, so but to kind of round off the conversation, there isn't totally going to get stuck in China. 36 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:05,290 We're very lucky to have radical because the radical is also part in our DC tribe and 37 00:04:05,290 --> 00:04:09,790 spent five years developing the India programme of an Odyssey number of years ago, 38 00:04:09,790 --> 00:04:12,520 but is here now based, based. 39 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:21,250 Based in Oxford, as a research director of the Oxford India Centre and part of an upcoming Oxford Martin School programme on the future of cooling. 40 00:04:21,250 --> 00:04:25,270 So it's fantastic to have you back here with us today. 41 00:04:25,270 --> 00:04:34,750 So we're going to go over to Barbara now here from her radical and Barbara have a bit of a conversation and we'll open up for questions after that. 42 00:04:34,750 --> 00:04:45,920 So I'd like to welcome you both. Thank you very much. 43 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:54,140 Thank you so much, Sam and Radhika and everyone else at the Oxford Martin School who made it possible for me to be here today, 44 00:04:54,140 --> 00:05:05,050 and especially thanks to so many of you for spending a lovely afternoon on this very important topic. 45 00:05:05,050 --> 00:05:19,210 We are at the cusp of a paradigm shift in energy, global energy that is as profound as the shift from burning biofuels to coal. 46 00:05:19,210 --> 00:05:23,160 Over two centuries ago. 47 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:35,550 But we're also living in an era of rapidly accelerating climate change, a climate emergency, as the UK parliament has just declared. 48 00:05:35,550 --> 00:05:43,530 We must act now to cut our emissions in half within the next 10 to 12 years to have 49 00:05:43,530 --> 00:05:51,310 any hope of limiting the impacts of climate change to mostly survivable levels. 50 00:05:51,310 --> 00:05:59,710 And to do so will require a shift in our global economy and our energy systems. 51 00:05:59,710 --> 00:06:06,430 That is unprecedented in scope and speed and scale. 52 00:06:06,430 --> 00:06:12,400 So the question is how do these two major paradigm shifts intersect? 53 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:21,910 Can we move ahead with clean energy fast enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change the world? 54 00:06:21,910 --> 00:06:32,730 And we are at a crossroads. And right in the centre of that crossroad is China. 55 00:06:32,730 --> 00:06:42,300 When I first moved to China in 1990, winter meant coal every year on November 15th on the dot. 56 00:06:42,300 --> 00:06:51,660 Regardless of the weather, the government of Beijing and other large cities would switch on the heating system powered by coal and instantly, 57 00:06:51,660 --> 00:07:00,300 instantly our faces would darken and we'd start to cough. 58 00:07:00,300 --> 00:07:08,160 And this is what I would say when I looked out my window the coal piles that people used for heating and cooking, 59 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,450 so they piled them up right outside of their homes. 60 00:07:12,450 --> 00:07:24,720 And in Beijing itself, I could see from my window the smokestacks of four major coal plants and the largest steel mill in the country, 61 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:29,580 right within the limits of Beijing. All of those are gone now. 62 00:07:29,580 --> 00:07:43,800 But the problems largely remain. Two years after I arrived in Beijing, I was present at the emergence of China on the international climate stage. 63 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:49,830 It actually began in Beijing in a crowded ballroom in the Cleveland Hotel. 64 00:07:49,830 --> 00:07:52,200 The premier at the time, Li Peng, 65 00:07:52,200 --> 00:08:03,990 had invited ministers from 40 different developing countries to come to Beijing and work out a joint strategy for negotiating the Framework. 66 00:08:03,990 --> 00:08:14,280 Convention on Climate Change and the principles that they came up with at this meeting were enshrined in something called the Beijing Declaration. 67 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:19,410 And many of them made their way into the framework convention, 68 00:08:19,410 --> 00:08:28,830 most notably the idea of common but differentiated responsibilities for developed and developing countries. 69 00:08:28,830 --> 00:08:40,020 China held firm to that through the Copenhagen climate negotiations and blocked real progress 70 00:08:40,020 --> 00:08:47,160 in coming up with global top-down limits on CO2 emissions because of that principle. 71 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:57,270 And the Premier at the time was widely blamed for the failure of the Copenhagen Agreement to reach a global climate targets. 72 00:08:57,270 --> 00:09:08,850 Yet just a few years later in Paris. China was widely credited with playing a very positive role and through a series 73 00:09:08,850 --> 00:09:13,020 of bilateral climate agreements with the second largest emitter in the world, 74 00:09:13,020 --> 00:09:24,680 the United States. Really developed the momentum for reaching the Paris Agreement and also the speed with which it entered into force. 75 00:09:24,680 --> 00:09:33,200 Now these are the indices that China committed to at the Paris Agreement nationally determined contributions. 76 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:48,710 And I might say the second one, which was widely considered to be very ambitious, to raise the percentage of non-fossil energy to 20 percent by 2030. 77 00:09:48,710 --> 00:09:58,150 That includes nuclear, high, large hydro and other things that we don't always call renewable energy. 78 00:09:58,150 --> 00:10:06,180 And in a draught renewable energy document that came out a few months ago, 79 00:10:06,180 --> 00:10:17,100 China is now considering raising that second target to 35 percent by 2030 and not just non-fossil, but just renewable energy. 80 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:30,510 That's how fast it's grown. But now that the U.S. has retreated from the climate scene, the question arises, 81 00:10:30,510 --> 00:10:38,910 will try to take the reins and try to save the planet, can try to be a leader in global climate mitigation. 82 00:10:38,910 --> 00:10:51,150 And to answer that question, as I explained in my book, requires an understanding of the economic and political context that China operates in. 83 00:10:51,150 --> 00:10:59,700 And the fundamental obstacles to its low carbon transition that it faces and is grappling with now, 84 00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:06,510 and also the powerful vested interests that are standing in the way. 85 00:11:06,510 --> 00:11:17,070 But one thing is clear to me that China plays an outside role not only in terms of CO2 emissions, 86 00:11:17,070 --> 00:11:20,880 of which it is by far the world's largest contributor, 87 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:33,600 but also in the outside role outsized role that it is playing in catalysing that very clean energy revolution that I talked about in the beginning. 88 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,750 And to discuss this, there's a lot to talk about. 89 00:11:36,750 --> 00:11:48,840 I'm going to only focus on four main issues key issues coal, renewable energy, electric vehicles and green finance. 90 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:59,700 So in 2006, China overtook the US with the dubious honour of being the world's largest emitter of CO2, 91 00:11:59,700 --> 00:12:10,860 though it is important to note that China's per capita emissions are still less than half those of the United States, 92 00:12:10,860 --> 00:12:22,200 similar per capita emissions to the EU and lower cumulative emissions than either the US or the EU, though it is catching up fast. 93 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:27,270 And the main reason for China's large CO2 emissions is coal. 94 00:12:27,270 --> 00:12:32,790 Coal is responsible for about 80 percent of China's CO2 emissions. 95 00:12:32,790 --> 00:12:37,380 And if CO2 emissions in China were a separate country, 96 00:12:37,380 --> 00:12:46,150 it would have the number two emissions in the world after China itself and ahead of any other country. 97 00:12:46,150 --> 00:12:52,200 Now what caused this rapid growth starting in 2001? 98 00:12:52,200 --> 00:13:00,510 Well, that was the year that China entered the WTO and became the manufacturing centre of the world. 99 00:13:00,510 --> 00:13:09,420 During that first decade, it witnessed the most amazing economic miracle that had ever been seen in the world. 100 00:13:09,420 --> 00:13:17,430 It quadrupled its GDP. It nearly quintupled its exports, and it tripled its coal consumption. 101 00:13:17,430 --> 00:13:28,890 It was all powered by coal. And at that time, China was also in the middle of building the largest urban area in the world, 102 00:13:28,890 --> 00:13:34,030 and it still is the largest construction site that the world has ever seen. 103 00:13:34,030 --> 00:13:43,790 So that's the reason why. But if you look here, you'll see that last couple of years coal use has. 104 00:13:43,790 --> 00:13:48,680 Dropped or begun to drop. That is remarkable. 105 00:13:48,680 --> 00:13:55,600 Why is that? It's because starting in the mid 2000s, 106 00:13:55,600 --> 00:14:02,950 China began to realise that its development model based on exports based on heavy 107 00:14:02,950 --> 00:14:10,270 industry powered by coal and just continuing its economic growth was no longer enough 108 00:14:10,270 --> 00:14:16,270 to guarantee the quality of life for its citizens and that this path was simply 109 00:14:16,270 --> 00:14:22,580 unsustainable and was leaving a trail of environmental devastation in its wake. 110 00:14:22,580 --> 00:14:33,680 And things came to a head in 2013. That was the year known by many as China's air apocalypse, when instead of fog, 111 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:40,010 people began to get information about how high the levels of actual pollutants were. 112 00:14:40,010 --> 00:14:50,090 And public concern began to soar. People were wearing face masks outside hospital admissions, reach levels never seen before. 113 00:14:50,090 --> 00:14:57,200 And some estimates were that 4000 people were dying from air pollution every day. 114 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:05,300 So by the end of that year, 2013, China had launched a one point seven trillion renminbi programme. 115 00:15:05,300 --> 00:15:17,630 Air Pollution Control, an action plan targeting coal consumption in its most polluted regions along in populated regions along the eastern seaboard. 116 00:15:17,630 --> 00:15:22,430 That was also the year that my organisation, NRDC had. 117 00:15:22,430 --> 00:15:29,600 We had brought together a group of 20 major Chinese stakeholders, research institutes, academic experts and so on, 118 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:44,170 and managed to put together a proposal for a national cap on coal consumption that was included in the 13th Five-Year Plan as a mandatory cap. 119 00:15:44,170 --> 00:15:53,350 So the results of that, those efforts at air pollution control plant, the coal cap and others policies subsidies, 120 00:15:53,350 --> 00:16:01,090 a whole range of steps that China took to cut its air pollution primarily, 121 00:16:01,090 --> 00:16:08,740 but also to cut its CO2 emissions because the same basic cause is for both is coal. 122 00:16:08,740 --> 00:16:12,540 The results were quite impressive. 123 00:16:12,540 --> 00:16:23,640 The following year after the apocalypse, after going up double digits, China's coal use was essentially flat for the first time since then. 124 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:32,580 Economic miracle began, and for the next two years, 2014 through 2016, it actually began to go down. 125 00:16:32,580 --> 00:16:37,140 That meant, of course, that China's CO2 emissions went down. 126 00:16:37,140 --> 00:16:44,160 And because China is such a major player in terms of CO2 emissions, this last year, 127 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:50,100 it was responsible for 29 percent of global emissions when China's emissions went down. 128 00:16:50,100 --> 00:17:00,630 Global CO2 emissions also stabilised for those three years, even as the global economy continued to grow. 129 00:17:00,630 --> 00:17:08,340 Some people even thought that China may have already peaked its coal consumption and its CO2 emissions. 130 00:17:08,340 --> 00:17:21,030 But unfortunately, that's not the case. And in 2017, and even more so this past year, coal consumption has begun to rise in China again. 131 00:17:21,030 --> 00:17:31,920 China's CO2 emissions have begun to rise three percent this year, and unfortunately, that plays a major role in global CO2 emissions. 132 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:39,390 Also growing this past year by two percent. We cannot afford this continued growth. 133 00:17:39,390 --> 00:17:50,130 But the question in everyone's mind is, is this a blip or is this a long term trend? 134 00:17:50,130 --> 00:17:54,690 And to answer that question really illustrates something I said earlier, 135 00:17:54,690 --> 00:18:00,630 which is what are the fundamental obstacles that China faces in trying to decarbonise? 136 00:18:00,630 --> 00:18:10,050 Who are the stakeholders that are standing in the way the powerful vested interests and some of the ones that I have identified are, 137 00:18:10,050 --> 00:18:19,560 in fact, local governments, local governments whose leaders are still pretty much rated primarily by how well 138 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:25,080 they grow their GDP and their local GDP and their economies were built on coal. 139 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:31,500 Their jobs primarily were derived from the coal industry and from heavy industry. 140 00:18:31,500 --> 00:18:39,930 And so when the government tried to cut back on coal use in these provinces, local governments resisted. 141 00:18:39,930 --> 00:18:49,350 But then inexplicably, in 2014, the government decided to delegate approval for new coal plants to local governments, 142 00:18:49,350 --> 00:18:55,050 thinking they would have a better idea of what capacity was needed. Well, can you imagine the result? 143 00:18:55,050 --> 00:19:02,850 A glut of new coal plant approvals, even though they were none of them were needed. 144 00:19:02,850 --> 00:19:06,390 And because of the way China's power system is set up, 145 00:19:06,390 --> 00:19:12,330 any new coal plant that comes in is guaranteed a certain number of operating hours and is 146 00:19:12,330 --> 00:19:20,310 guaranteed similar to every other coal plant and guaranteed a fixed price for their electricity. 147 00:19:20,310 --> 00:19:25,860 So with more coal plants, you bring on board the less profit that you have. 148 00:19:25,860 --> 00:19:33,960 And so the government has tried to cut back on that willy nilly growth of coal plants in the past couple of years. 149 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:42,320 But then the big problem now is the economic slowdown in China. 150 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,920 The trade wars between the US and China do play a very important role, 151 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:52,940 but that's not by any means the only reason and the Chinese government is once again 152 00:19:52,940 --> 00:20:00,770 resorting to these same measures that worked before in the 2008 global economic recession. 153 00:20:00,770 --> 00:20:08,240 They are supporting more infrastructure, more coal powered, 154 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:17,450 highly polluting infrastructure rather than using a stimulus to promote more green jobs, more transition to clean energy. 155 00:20:17,450 --> 00:20:23,810 So that is a second reason why we're seeing a real growth again here. 156 00:20:23,810 --> 00:20:29,450 Hopefully, China can find its way to what it says, 157 00:20:29,450 --> 00:20:36,590 where it says it wants to go to the new normal of slower but higher quality 158 00:20:36,590 --> 00:20:44,160 economic growth that protects the environment and the health of its citizens. 159 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:54,720 Just a few weeks ago, my organisation and those 20 other Chinese stakeholder groups came out with a report, 160 00:20:54,720 --> 00:21:03,210 the mid-term evaluation of the cold cap policy and looked at all the things China we recommend 161 00:21:03,210 --> 00:21:10,800 that China does to get a handle and on its coal consumption to bring it back where it needs to be, 162 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:18,510 where China says it wants to be. So here are some of the key recommendations that we have made. 163 00:21:18,510 --> 00:21:21,690 I will just highlight two of them. 164 00:21:21,690 --> 00:21:32,910 One is power sector reform because the all the rules of the power sector were developed at a time when all China wanted to 165 00:21:32,910 --> 00:21:43,950 do was to build new coal plants as fast as possible to power its growing industrial sector because it wasn't succeeding. 166 00:21:43,950 --> 00:21:52,920 There was strong, widespread outages. So the rules of the game still favour coal fired power. 167 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:59,100 So power sector reform and here are some of the examples China has been working on for some time. 168 00:21:59,100 --> 00:22:05,820 But the powers that would be the losers from that type of power sector reform are dragging their feet. 169 00:22:05,820 --> 00:22:17,640 The second major focus that we recommend is something that China also has done very well globally on, but in recent years has has given less priority. 170 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:25,020 That is energy efficiency. There is so much wastage of energy in China's system. 171 00:22:25,020 --> 00:22:27,870 Even though China, by its own lights, 172 00:22:27,870 --> 00:22:38,430 says that it's responsible for two thirds of the improvements in energy efficiency over the last two decades of its energy intensity, 173 00:22:38,430 --> 00:22:41,880 that's the amount of energy it uses to produce. 174 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:47,640 One unit of GDP is still far below the world average, 175 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:55,230 and we've been to factories all over China and have seen how low cost no cost measures can save 176 00:22:55,230 --> 00:23:02,310 energy much more quickly and cheaply than building coal plants or building renewable energy plants. 177 00:23:02,310 --> 00:23:05,400 That's what we recommend in detail. 178 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:16,650 But the interesting conclusion of our new report is that we model three different economic and energy growth scenarios. 179 00:23:16,650 --> 00:23:31,920 And even in the high growth scenario, if China follows these recommendations, we believe that it can cap its coal consumption beginning in 2020. 180 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,370 That's next year. Why 2020? 181 00:23:35,370 --> 00:23:45,150 Because number one, there is so much wastage in the system, both overcapacity in coal plants and inefficiencies in its industrial sectors, 182 00:23:45,150 --> 00:23:53,460 and too, because there's a much cheaper, cleaner and faster alternative that is growing like wildfire in China. 183 00:23:53,460 --> 00:24:05,220 And that is renewable energy. China has many reasons to promote wind and solar plants. 184 00:24:05,220 --> 00:24:12,300 Air pollution is one. Climate change is another. Energy security is the third. 185 00:24:12,300 --> 00:24:21,960 Climate change is fourth. China is one of the countries that is actually most susceptible to the impacts and risks of climate change, 186 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:34,170 and there was a good study done in collaboration with the UK that recently came out detailing exactly what types of climate risks China faces. 187 00:24:34,170 --> 00:24:47,880 But China also recognises that clean energy is the largest market opportunity of the 21st century, and they recognise that it is a clean job creator. 188 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:54,930 China leads the world in clean energy jobs nearly 40 percent of the total. 189 00:24:54,930 --> 00:24:58,840 That's over four million. 190 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:10,570 Clean energy jobs in 2018, how did try to get there to lead the world in solar and wind capacity, many other forms of renewable energy? 191 00:25:10,570 --> 00:25:16,600 Massive investments for one. If you look here, you'll see that in 2017, 192 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:27,670 China's investments in renewable energy were greater than the next three countries put together the US, the EU and Japan. 193 00:25:27,670 --> 00:25:32,560 And last year, it invested another hundred billion in renewable energy. 194 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:38,530 In comparison, say, to the US, which was sixty four billion. 195 00:25:38,530 --> 00:25:43,570 Right, so right now, China has one out of every three. 196 00:25:43,570 --> 00:25:47,800 More than one out of every three wind turbine in the world. 197 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:59,020 And you know, when I when I think about the arguments we're having in the United States about immigration and building a wall with Mexico, 198 00:25:59,020 --> 00:26:10,300 I'm reminded of an old Chinese proverb which I may have made up where when the winds of touch, 199 00:26:10,300 --> 00:26:19,540 when the winds of change blow, some people build walls, others build windmills. 200 00:26:19,540 --> 00:26:24,700 But really, the most exciting story here is solar power. 201 00:26:24,700 --> 00:26:30,040 Ten years ago, China was already the leading exporter of solar panels. 202 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:35,470 But if you put together all of the solar capacity it had on the ground. 203 00:26:35,470 --> 00:26:42,490 It's it's less than one small city in the US the city of San Antonio has today. 204 00:26:42,490 --> 00:26:50,050 Yet in 10 years, China is now by far the juggernaut of solar power. 205 00:26:50,050 --> 00:27:00,970 Why? Because in the 2008 recession, countries like Germany, which had very good subsidies for solar power with China, was selling them solar panels. 206 00:27:00,970 --> 00:27:06,520 They cut their subsidies, so the market dropped out of the Chinese solar power industry, 207 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,960 and they recognised that they needed to develop a domestic capacity. 208 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:20,890 And so they did so again with heavy, heavy subsidies, about 60 billion dollars for solar panel, as well as investments in R&D. 209 00:27:20,890 --> 00:27:27,010 They named solar panel as a strategic industry in 2012. 210 00:27:27,010 --> 00:27:35,710 They invested in R&D, and they set targets for innovation, for expanding their markets overseas and for bringing down the cost. 211 00:27:35,710 --> 00:27:44,950 So in the five years alone, from 2008 to 2013, the year of the Apocalypse? 212 00:27:44,950 --> 00:27:59,190 Excuse me. In just five years, China had dropped the cost of solar power globally by 80 percent. 213 00:27:59,190 --> 00:28:09,480 And. Let in 2017, China installed as much solar power as the entire world had on the ground just two 214 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:17,400 years before and last year also they installed more solar power alone than coal, 215 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,330 nuclear and gas combined. 216 00:28:21,330 --> 00:28:34,230 The amount of power that they generated in 2018 from wind and solar was equal to the total power generation of the UK and the Netherlands, 217 00:28:34,230 --> 00:28:40,380 and by next year, China will have as much solar capacity on the ground. 218 00:28:40,380 --> 00:28:52,400 Two equals four times that of the United States. But China built its solar power mainly through subsidies, 219 00:28:52,400 --> 00:29:02,960 and the number of plants that were built was so high that they ran out of money to in their renewable energy fund to pay for those subsidies. 220 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:08,390 The shortfall is now about 20 billion dollars. 221 00:29:08,390 --> 00:29:16,820 But at the same time, because the cost of solar is dropping so much, China is embarked on an enormous transformation here, 222 00:29:16,820 --> 00:29:27,800 from supporting solar to having it stand on its own economically and compete head to head with solar plants. 223 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,920 They have slashed the subsidies from last year. 224 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:38,600 They're requiring different solar plants to compete with each other to see who can offer the cheapest price to the grid. 225 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:48,720 And they have their first. They announced their first batch of totally unsubsidised solar and wind power earlier this year. 226 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:54,090 Everybody thought that was the death of solar power in China, where they couldn't survive without subsidies. 227 00:29:54,090 --> 00:30:01,560 But what happened instead? Because once the subsidies were taken away, the price dropped even more. 228 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:09,650 And in this last year, the price of solar has dropped another thirty five percent. 229 00:30:09,650 --> 00:30:14,870 China is also setting up other market mechanisms like quotas. 230 00:30:14,870 --> 00:30:18,440 Well, this is a combination of regulation and market mechanism, 231 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:26,060 but they are in the process of setting a renewable energy quota for every province and major power user and those provinces. 232 00:30:26,060 --> 00:30:33,150 If they don't generate enough themselves, they have to buy renewable energy certificates from other provinces. 233 00:30:33,150 --> 00:30:41,750 This will go a long way towards addressing some of the curtailment problems that China has had for so solar and wind energy, 234 00:30:41,750 --> 00:30:53,090 and the fact that the renewable energy is is really at its highest rate in the western part of the country, far from the populated eastern centres. 235 00:30:53,090 --> 00:31:02,840 So here we go. This just is. The new Global Renewable Energy Report came out this morning, as I put it in here, 236 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:07,340 despite what people thought about China's market bottoming bottoming out. 237 00:31:07,340 --> 00:31:20,550 It did decline, but it's still greater than four times the new solar additions as the next highest mark as the United States and. 238 00:31:20,550 --> 00:31:35,460 This is the global energy transition now. 11 of Chinese in 11 of Chinese provinces already, it's as solar power is as cheap as coal. 239 00:31:35,460 --> 00:31:41,190 And more provinces are following hard behind. 240 00:31:41,190 --> 00:31:45,030 This is the global energy transition. 241 00:31:45,030 --> 00:31:54,420 The fact remains, however, that despite this rapid growth, our world energy system is still two thirds fossil fuels. 242 00:31:54,420 --> 00:32:00,750 But because of what China has done to bring those costs down and really tackle a lot 243 00:32:00,750 --> 00:32:07,530 of the questions of curtailment and integrating renewable energy into the grid. 244 00:32:07,530 --> 00:32:13,710 Experts say that when bringing down the costs of energy storage, 245 00:32:13,710 --> 00:32:25,030 experts say that we are now on a path where we the world could reach 50 percent renewables by 2050. 246 00:32:25,030 --> 00:32:30,730 And sure enough, in the world, so this is again from this brand new report, China, 247 00:32:30,730 --> 00:32:36,670 excuse me, the world added more renewables last year than fossil fuel and nuclear. 248 00:32:36,670 --> 00:32:45,940 So we are in a paradigm shift. And I think this is the perfect picture to illustrate what I'm talking about China. 249 00:32:45,940 --> 00:32:58,980 A year or two ago turned on the world's largest floating solar power plant on top of a collapsed coal mine. 250 00:32:58,980 --> 00:33:04,950 But it's not enough. It's by far not enough for us to deal with our climate emergency here. 251 00:33:04,950 --> 00:33:13,500 According to the latest report by the International Panel for Climate Change, the U.N. scientists say we have to as a society, 252 00:33:13,500 --> 00:33:22,830 as a world, reach 60 to 85 percent renewable energy by 2050, so every country needs to ramp up. 253 00:33:22,830 --> 00:33:35,130 Their efforts in China itself still faces enormous geographical, technical and most of all, political challenges to really ramping up solar and wind. 254 00:33:35,130 --> 00:33:41,460 And so do other countries. So there's a tremendous opportunity for collaboration here because to my mind, 255 00:33:41,460 --> 00:33:50,040 the real issue is not competition between the U.S. and China, say or any other country on energy. 256 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:57,780 It's a competition between solar and fossil fuels so quickly on electric vehicles. 257 00:33:57,780 --> 00:34:02,880 This is another area where starting that year of the apocalypse. 258 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:12,060 China launched in earnest what journalist Tom Friedman called a moonshot a 259 00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:17,040 multibillion dollar moonshot to lead the world in electric vehicle production again. 260 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:25,140 Why is that energy? Security China is now the world's largest oil importer. 261 00:34:25,140 --> 00:34:28,320 Environmental protection, climate change, but once again, 262 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:36,900 market opportunity and people often think that China is one monolithic government making decisions in every province implements them. 263 00:34:36,900 --> 00:34:42,690 But I have seen over by 30 years in China that the impact of an individual can make an enormous difference. 264 00:34:42,690 --> 00:34:49,800 And I would argue that this fellow here who was became the Minister of Science and 265 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:56,490 Technology after becoming after starting off as an automotive engineer here in Germany. 266 00:34:56,490 --> 00:35:05,310 Working for Audi is the one with the vision who pushed through China's moonshot on electric vehicles. 267 00:35:05,310 --> 00:35:19,710 Again, it's a combination of subsidies $10000 US average per electric vehicle, nonfinancial perks such as parking places, 268 00:35:19,710 --> 00:35:26,550 special lanes, not having to enter a lottery, to get a licence plate and so on. 269 00:35:26,550 --> 00:35:36,000 China also has come up with tougher standards for diesel and combustion engine cars, and they did something else. 270 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:46,950 That, to me, is brilliant. Last September, they announced that if any of the world's largest automakers wished to sell vehicles in China, 271 00:35:46,950 --> 00:35:56,160 the world's largest auto market, they had to ensure that a certain percentage percentage of them were these new energy vehicles. 272 00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:01,590 And I never saw such a quick response from the automakers who have been dragging 273 00:36:01,590 --> 00:36:08,010 their feet for years because they make more money from this larger SUV. 274 00:36:08,010 --> 00:36:11,820 Now, every one of them has announced joint ventures in China. 275 00:36:11,820 --> 00:36:22,500 New investments totalling something like three hundred billion dollars estimated over the last five years and new lines of electric vehicles. 276 00:36:22,500 --> 00:36:30,240 China's also dropped the price. They are also the world's largest manufacturer of electric vehicle batteries. 277 00:36:30,240 --> 00:36:34,950 About 50 percent of the ones in the world last year were sold by China. 278 00:36:34,950 --> 00:36:38,190 So the problem is here once again, 279 00:36:38,190 --> 00:36:47,250 is that China recognises that this electric vehicle prices are coming down so low they don't need to keep subsidising them so heavily. 280 00:36:47,250 --> 00:36:54,900 And the subsidies have had some unintended impacts of stifling innovation and so forth. 281 00:36:54,900 --> 00:37:06,890 So they are moving ahead to slash the. Subsidies for electric vehicles as well, and they hope to phase them all out by 2020. 282 00:37:06,890 --> 00:37:11,870 So can can the electric vehicle industry survive? 283 00:37:11,870 --> 00:37:18,860 Well, you've got things like the electric taxis and the ridesharing companies like China's Uber Didi Chuxing, 284 00:37:18,860 --> 00:37:26,630 who's investing hundreds of millions of dollars on their own electric vehicles and transforming entire fleets. 285 00:37:26,630 --> 00:37:31,370 You've also got electric buses in China. This is an amazing story. 286 00:37:31,370 --> 00:37:38,210 China is now responsible for 99 percent of the world's electric buses, 287 00:37:38,210 --> 00:37:47,780 and they've done it not by what some countries and cities do of replacing buses with electric once they reach the end of their useful life. 288 00:37:47,780 --> 00:37:57,560 They are transforming entire fleets in cities to electric buses, and they have announced a new proposal last year, 289 00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:08,570 excuse me, a new policy last month requiring every city to come up with a phaseout programme for electric buses. 290 00:38:08,570 --> 00:38:14,990 So China is now responsible by far the world's largest market for electric vehicles and, 291 00:38:14,990 --> 00:38:19,640 like I said, ninety nine percent of the world's electric buses. 292 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,880 But still, it's just like the solar and wind. 293 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:29,150 It's still such a tiny percentage of the fleet as we have it right now. 294 00:38:29,150 --> 00:38:33,260 But because of what China has done again, 295 00:38:33,260 --> 00:38:45,740 the experts are now they keep changing their estimates of when electric vehicles will become as cheap as combustion engine vehicles. 296 00:38:45,740 --> 00:38:51,110 When I started this book, it was 10 years now, five four. 297 00:38:51,110 --> 00:38:58,880 Now they're talking about it in a couple of years in certain markets. It'll be as cheap to buy an electric vehicle as a regular gas guzzler. 298 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:08,570 And for that reason, experts say we could get to 50 percent of the global car fleet electric by 2050. 299 00:39:08,570 --> 00:39:13,250 But once again, the IPCC says No, not enough. Not enough. 300 00:39:13,250 --> 00:39:17,510 Sixty five percent of all transport needs to be. 301 00:39:17,510 --> 00:39:33,460 Electric by 2050, it's a very, very big, big ask, but we're working on it finally really quickly green finance. 302 00:39:33,460 --> 00:39:38,470 China is a leader in green finance, and again, I would put it to one fellow named John, 303 00:39:38,470 --> 00:39:46,450 who's head of China's Green Finance Committee and is leading the world in the development of a green finance system for China. 304 00:39:46,450 --> 00:39:52,870 And the UK again has a lot of expertise in green finance and has been working very closely with China 305 00:39:52,870 --> 00:39:58,660 on things like developing a green bond system and making sure that it works and can be verified. 306 00:39:58,660 --> 00:40:10,960 But what we heard from Sam earlier is China is not at the point yet where it is applying those green finance principles to its investments overseas, 307 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:19,760 particularly in this Belt and Road Initiative, which is covering right now almost 70 countries. 308 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:30,260 China is financing or wants to finance infrastructure, roads, ports, power plants. 309 00:40:30,260 --> 00:40:34,310 And together, these countries in the region that have signed up for this Belt and Road 310 00:40:34,310 --> 00:40:40,640 Initiative are responsible for 60 percent right now of the world's CO2 emissions. 311 00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:47,390 And China's much U.N. recognises that if China doesn't work to green its Belt and Road Initiative, 312 00:40:47,390 --> 00:40:54,050 these countries emissions will be three times those of China in just a few years. 313 00:40:54,050 --> 00:41:05,940 So China has done a lot to set up guidelines principles. 314 00:41:05,940 --> 00:41:09,930 Committees to Green the Belt and Road, 315 00:41:09,930 --> 00:41:17,970 and you can see that it's investment in renewable energy in these Belt and Road countries has grown quite a bit. 316 00:41:17,970 --> 00:41:22,560 And it should be because solar and wind are now cheaper than coal plants, 317 00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:31,710 because China has all the expertise to help these recipient countries transition to low carbon just like it's doing. 318 00:41:31,710 --> 00:41:42,690 But unfortunately, this is dwarfed by the amount of money that China, Japan and Korea are financing if coal plants in Belt and Road countries. 319 00:41:42,690 --> 00:41:51,570 Some estimates are that 50 percent of the new coal plants being built around the world are being financed by China in these Belt and Road countries. 320 00:41:51,570 --> 00:41:57,210 And it's not by private companies because the market is leaning everybody towards renewables. 321 00:41:57,210 --> 00:42:04,410 These are being financed by Chinese state owned banks. So there's a lot that needs to be done to green the BRT. 322 00:42:04,410 --> 00:42:11,640 There was a huge second annual forum in May. 40 different countries participated. 323 00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:16,050 They set up green 10 working groups for greening the Belt and Road. 324 00:42:16,050 --> 00:42:23,490 My organisation is part of one of setting up environmental standards and targets that are going to be hopefully mandatory. 325 00:42:23,490 --> 00:42:30,780 But what can China do to really put its money where its mouth is and green the Belt and Road? 326 00:42:30,780 --> 00:42:38,040 And one very important thing, especially as we our goal with the U.N. is asking every country to increase its ambition. 327 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:46,980 Its Paris pledges its NDC if China can use those countries indices as a guideline for its Belt and Road investments. 328 00:42:46,980 --> 00:42:50,970 There are billions of dollars available in financing. 329 00:42:50,970 --> 00:42:58,170 World Resources Institute estimated that there is two hundred and thirty billion dollars worth of renewable energy 330 00:42:58,170 --> 00:43:08,490 investment opportunities in the three countries that have indicated renewable energy goals in their Paris commitments. 331 00:43:08,490 --> 00:43:14,250 China's May Solar, a strategic industry in China. 332 00:43:14,250 --> 00:43:22,190 It can do the same in other countries. But the bright countries have a lot that they can do as well. 333 00:43:22,190 --> 00:43:28,760 In particular, update their NDC so that they have quantitative teeth to them and can serve as a guideline 334 00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:35,180 for investments from China and work with China and others to strengthen their policies, 335 00:43:35,180 --> 00:43:43,190 their grids and deal with the incumbent advantages that they to give to coal power. 336 00:43:43,190 --> 00:43:52,070 Strengthen their green financing policies. So in conclusion, you may ask, so will China save the planet? 337 00:43:52,070 --> 00:43:57,380 And I'm tempted to say we'll just buy my book and you'll find out. 338 00:43:57,380 --> 00:44:03,530 But really, it's so clear to me that not one country can do it all. 339 00:44:03,530 --> 00:44:15,950 Every the new UN Emissions Gap report said that every country needs to do more to increase their efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change. 340 00:44:15,950 --> 00:44:22,910 But what China can do is is something that the Tufts University just released 341 00:44:22,910 --> 00:44:33,950 another report showing that China can peak its CO2 emissions much earlier. 342 00:44:33,950 --> 00:44:38,960 And some of the top recommendations they have were very similar to what what 343 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:43,430 we had in our NRDC report that came out at the same time power sector reform. 344 00:44:43,430 --> 00:44:51,110 Level the playing field for solar and wind so that they can become the world's largest energy source, 345 00:44:51,110 --> 00:44:56,450 as many are predicting and energy efficiency get the waste out of the system. 346 00:44:56,450 --> 00:45:04,420 It saves money, it makes you more competitive and it's cleaner. 347 00:45:04,420 --> 00:45:08,260 So what gives me hope this is my office in Beijing. 348 00:45:08,260 --> 00:45:17,500 We have got about 50 people right now working with China on every almost every aspect of its low carbon transition. 349 00:45:17,500 --> 00:45:21,700 And I feel like we have worked with Oxford. 350 00:45:21,700 --> 00:45:26,410 I was just telling you that we had a programme recently, 351 00:45:26,410 --> 00:45:32,560 a couple of years ago where our environmental law team worked with the counterparts here at Oxford 352 00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:40,030 to come up with a series of recommendations for China on strengthening its environmental law. 353 00:45:40,030 --> 00:45:46,390 And I feel like there's a lot more that we can do to work together to help save the planet. 354 00:45:46,390 --> 00:46:04,090 So thank you all so much, and I look forward to our discussion and your questions. 355 00:46:04,090 --> 00:46:12,650 Thank you, Barbara. It's really lovely to have you here, not just as a fellow researcher and policy colleague, but as a friend from NRDC. 356 00:46:12,650 --> 00:46:16,900 It's an organisation that we've both had the pleasure of working with. 357 00:46:16,900 --> 00:46:23,530 You continue to be there. So there's, you know, there's something very striking about the story that you tell about China, 358 00:46:23,530 --> 00:46:30,350 about how this is a country that started and grew to become one of the largest emitters and then move 359 00:46:30,350 --> 00:46:38,050 to become a country that really started to take climate change mitigation and adaptation seriously, 360 00:46:38,050 --> 00:46:45,100 particularly through renewables. And and this is remarkable, of course, in many ways. 361 00:46:45,100 --> 00:46:56,200 It also leaves open some unanswered questions about other countries that are at a similar brink of expansion and of growth. 362 00:46:56,200 --> 00:47:02,680 And you know, I'm particularly interested in the case of India because there's there's this sort of 363 00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:09,460 narrative around how India and China together will determine the fate of the planet. 364 00:47:09,460 --> 00:47:15,010 And I think that that clubbing can be a little bit problematic for a variety of number of ways. 365 00:47:15,010 --> 00:47:19,390 But, you know, just to sort of try to talk through that a little bit. 366 00:47:19,390 --> 00:47:24,820 Now these are both countries that that share some similar duality. 367 00:47:24,820 --> 00:47:35,710 Right. So India is amongst the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters, and it has one of the largest economies. 368 00:47:35,710 --> 00:47:43,150 But on the flip side, in terms of its multidimensional poverty index, which is an index that counts not just for GDP, 369 00:47:43,150 --> 00:47:52,060 but also for other indicators of, you know, sort of well-being or sort of health education. 370 00:47:52,060 --> 00:48:00,730 India ranks very low, much lower than than China does, and it ranks with countries that it's not clubbed with in the negotiations. 371 00:48:00,730 --> 00:48:07,810 And then similarly, in terms of the number of people that it has that do not have access to clean cooking fuels or to electricity, 372 00:48:07,810 --> 00:48:14,170 we're talking about hundreds of millions of people sizes of, you know, large European countries sometimes. 373 00:48:14,170 --> 00:48:22,780 And then in terms of its greenhouse gas emissions, the low capita number for India is very low compared to China. 374 00:48:22,780 --> 00:48:28,690 And the model predictions tell us that actually, even in 2030, 375 00:48:28,690 --> 00:48:34,840 when we know that both India and China are going to keep growing in terms of their emissions and their economies, 376 00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:45,520 even in 2030, India's per capita emissions are going to be lower than the global per capita emissions in 2014. 377 00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:48,220 Right. So this is, I mean, just I'm going to say that again. 378 00:48:48,220 --> 00:48:55,450 So the 2030 per capita emissions are going to be lower than the 2014 world average per capita emissions. 379 00:48:55,450 --> 00:48:58,540 And the the emissions, 380 00:48:58,540 --> 00:49:08,800 the sort of cumulative emissions are the aggregate emissions of India in 2030 are still going to be less than half of China's emissions in 2015. 381 00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:13,450 Right. So it is clubbing. I mean, I want to sort of disassociate the clubbing. 382 00:49:13,450 --> 00:49:18,580 But but I want to come back to China and the model of development that did that, it sort of undertook, 383 00:49:18,580 --> 00:49:25,360 which is that, you know, it basically in that decade or more created this huge middle class. 384 00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:30,790 Hundreds and millions of people were taken out of poverty. And that is not trivial. 385 00:49:30,790 --> 00:49:38,200 That's not trivial for any country. There's a sort of certain quality of life and basic services that were given to many, many people. 386 00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:44,470 And as you quote in your book and there are two things that you say that, you know, really the sort of stayed in my head. 387 00:49:44,470 --> 00:49:56,800 One was that more coal was consumed in China in 2011 within the 600 kilometre radius of the capital than the entire United States. 388 00:49:56,800 --> 00:50:02,980 Right. So, so just like that, part of China consumed more coal than the entire United States, 389 00:50:02,980 --> 00:50:07,030 and we know what lifestyles and consumption in the United States is. 390 00:50:07,030 --> 00:50:13,270 And the second was that in that decade, or a little more than the decade between 2000 and 2013, 391 00:50:13,270 --> 00:50:20,080 China burned more coal to enable its economic boom than the rest of the world. 392 00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:28,330 So, you know, this is and it's it's sort of there is this this level of wealth development, 393 00:50:28,330 --> 00:50:32,740 quality of life, whatever we want to call it, that rode on the back of fossil fuels. 394 00:50:32,740 --> 00:50:41,740 And it led to this environmental damage, particularly around air that really spiked the concern around how the country should move forward. 395 00:50:41,740 --> 00:50:48,550 But the sort of provocative question I have for you is that, you know, given that other countries like India and, you know, 396 00:50:48,550 --> 00:50:59,230 large parts of Africa will will soon be at that at that place, given that these countries are at least 15 to 20 years behind China. 397 00:50:59,230 --> 00:51:07,980 Why should they be not in their own? In their own national interest, not follow the same path and say, we're going to develop first, 398 00:51:07,980 --> 00:51:13,470 bring hundreds and millions of people out of poverty and we'll clean up afterwards. 399 00:51:13,470 --> 00:51:18,930 And and you know what, what response do you have to that, particularly in a context? 400 00:51:18,930 --> 00:51:27,090 I mean, most see for India the, you know, most of the worst popular polluted cities in the world are now in India. 401 00:51:27,090 --> 00:51:34,140 But it doesn't drive the same political momentum. There isn't the same kind of public outcry that could change policies because there is a real 402 00:51:34,140 --> 00:51:39,750 question of of needing to develop and that tension between environment and development, 403 00:51:39,750 --> 00:51:45,540 which is sort of at the heart of our negotiations and our climate conversations, 404 00:51:45,540 --> 00:51:52,110 it's very hard for that to come out in favour of the environment when we are really struggling with questions of development. 405 00:51:52,110 --> 00:51:56,070 So how would you respond to that publication that it shouldn't shouldn't? 406 00:51:56,070 --> 00:52:04,490 Emerging economies develop first and clean up after I ran into this problem when I started working in China, 407 00:52:04,490 --> 00:52:09,630 actually, NRDC was always promoters of energy efficiency, 408 00:52:09,630 --> 00:52:15,840 and I would go to China and make that argument that California was able to keep its per 409 00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:23,820 capita energy use flat for since the 1970s oil crisis while continuing to grow its economy. 410 00:52:23,820 --> 00:52:28,530 California is maybe the fifth largest economy in the world right now. 411 00:52:28,530 --> 00:52:32,640 Nobody wanted to hear it in China because they were in the process of electrification. 412 00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:41,070 As you say, so many people didn't have power at all, and they were concerned, like you say, bringing people out of poverty. 413 00:52:41,070 --> 00:52:49,560 And it was about eight years in the wilderness before the outages I mentioned due to the skyrocketing economic growth 414 00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:57,540 really started to get so bad that the only way out was either just shut down all the factories or come back to NRDC, 415 00:52:57,540 --> 00:53:02,730 see and say, What were you saying about energy efficiency? And that's how we got started. 416 00:53:02,730 --> 00:53:06,930 But there's one big difference, and that's what I talk about here. 417 00:53:06,930 --> 00:53:12,090 That's why the only reason I would even have this title of will try to save the planet. 418 00:53:12,090 --> 00:53:17,040 It's not because of what China's doing on coal, it's because of renewable energy. 419 00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:27,270 And what we're learning now is these coal plants that China is financing overseas or that India is building actually India. 420 00:53:27,270 --> 00:53:33,600 They have found it's already solar is cheaper than building new coal plants. 421 00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:39,420 Sometimes building new solar and wind is cheaper than buying the coal for the existing coal plants. 422 00:53:39,420 --> 00:53:50,670 Even solar and wind, including energy storage to take, you know, note of the fact that it's variable source of energy is cheaper than the coal plants. 423 00:53:50,670 --> 00:53:58,620 So what what people are finding? The analysts are finding that it's these are stranded assets. 424 00:53:58,620 --> 00:54:05,370 These plants, the only 40 percent of the coal plants in China, some say 50 or uneconomic. 425 00:54:05,370 --> 00:54:10,740 They are not going to ever, ever return a profit. 426 00:54:10,740 --> 00:54:15,990 And all these coal plants that China is financing overseas, it's going to be stranded assets. 427 00:54:15,990 --> 00:54:21,130 So these countries and India too do not have to follow the same path. 428 00:54:21,130 --> 00:54:29,540 There is a new path that China has helped to to blaze, and that is. 429 00:54:29,540 --> 00:54:34,010 Clean energy, that's the clean energy revolution that we're talking about, countries can take advantage of that, 430 00:54:34,010 --> 00:54:41,900 but again, it's not easy because the rules of the road are are still stacked in favour of coal. 431 00:54:41,900 --> 00:54:47,460 But it can be done. I'm conscious of time, so I have more questions, 432 00:54:47,460 --> 00:54:54,770 but I think we should open it up and then it can come back, I can ask you some more at the end of room. 433 00:54:54,770 --> 00:55:02,570 So, yes, we don't need and stranded assets. I think the answer's been been given, but let's have some questions and we start from the back. 434 00:55:02,570 --> 00:55:10,820 This lady and I should say before you speak and say, this is broadcast live. 435 00:55:10,820 --> 00:55:17,600 So if you don't want to be seen, don't say anything, okay? If you could say who you are, where you're from, that would be great. 436 00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:28,040 My name is in the running and I run a construction company and it is eco sustainable green homes and I am very happy with China. 437 00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:32,270 It's been last eight years that we have all our measly. 438 00:55:32,270 --> 00:55:40,640 Most of the material is coming from China. And I've been there for the last three years every year and I think there will be a leader very soon. 439 00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:51,050 That's all I can say that the whole world's leader, because when we get there and be with panels from them and they are always helping us and 440 00:55:51,050 --> 00:55:57,530 they are also helping if anybody else is interested and the rates are absolutely phenomenal. 441 00:55:57,530 --> 00:56:03,800 Thank you very much. And I think a short statement, I appreciate this gentleman. I would take two or three questions together. 442 00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,910 So my name is Judy Madison, and I'm a second year law student at Saint Peter's College, 443 00:56:07,910 --> 00:56:11,850 which is right next to the union is quite small, so not everyone's always seen it. 444 00:56:11,850 --> 00:56:23,090 And my question was related to the grass that you showed early on and the idea that when China started to slow down in terms of economic growth, 445 00:56:23,090 --> 00:56:26,840 they reverted to old tactics and started using coal again. 446 00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:37,340 I was wondering if you think that as a result of that, the future of the environment depends directly on China's economic stability. 447 00:56:37,340 --> 00:56:46,200 One more of the back. This gentleman, just to add to John Hofmeister, I'm involved in one of the cheapening programmes at Oxford. 448 00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:52,190 I actually have a similar question, but I want to tie it into Trump's trade policies. 449 00:56:52,190 --> 00:56:57,350 I do a fair amount of work in China, and I'm noticing a new fear. 450 00:56:57,350 --> 00:57:02,690 Similar to one, President Xi first started the anti-corruption campaigns. 451 00:57:02,690 --> 00:57:07,820 Now the fear is around this economic instability potential. 452 00:57:07,820 --> 00:57:19,070 I just want you to comment on whether you see that also. I think that those are both very important questions, because as I said before, 453 00:57:19,070 --> 00:57:28,790 and as you pointed out this China's concerns about its continued economic growth are really driving this, 454 00:57:28,790 --> 00:57:36,710 this growth in coal consumption and CO2 emissions. But I would just I would not say that because of that, 455 00:57:36,710 --> 00:57:44,120 China's economic future is going to determine the future of our planet because it doesn't have to be, as I said before, 456 00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:48,080 with what the examples of California, for example, 457 00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:55,590 I have to show that you can continue to protect the environment in the climate whilst continuing to grow your economy. 458 00:57:55,590 --> 00:58:04,490 That's really the main mission of my organisation in China is to show best practises, market mechanisms. 459 00:58:04,490 --> 00:58:14,280 Incentives, and so if that can help China to continue and reach that economic stability without, I mean, just let me give you one example. 460 00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:27,960 China launched a green bond programme in 2016, and within two years it's now the second largest in the world after the United States and. 461 00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:32,580 It offers lower interest rates for green bonds, and last year again, it was, 462 00:58:32,580 --> 00:58:39,240 I think, one hundred and twenty green bonds worth $31 billion were issued in China. 463 00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:47,010 But a few weeks ago, China announced a new bond programme for local governments to help shore up the economy. 464 00:58:47,010 --> 00:58:50,970 And they're not green bonds. They're just regular bonds. Well, 465 00:58:50,970 --> 00:58:57,270 that one simple change China could harness the power of the private sector through 466 00:58:57,270 --> 00:59:07,160 green finance in a way that's going to reach help it reach all of its goals. 467 00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:12,050 Hi, I'm a DPhil student here studying in China, in the environment. 468 00:59:12,050 --> 00:59:19,640 And given that the IPCC, the Paris Climate Change Acts, 469 00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:26,900 have been criticised as techno utopianism from people such as Kevin Anderson at Manchester University. 470 00:59:26,900 --> 00:59:37,670 Have you not just presented a techno utopianism of China when actually the second half of the problem of climate change is political and social? 471 00:59:37,670 --> 00:59:48,410 And how is China able to quickly adapt itself to the political and social realities of a transition for a stable future? 472 00:59:48,410 --> 00:59:53,180 Well, China is dealing with political and economic realities here. 473 00:59:53,180 --> 01:00:03,800 That's why it is using these infrastructure investments in heavy industry and dirty industry as a way to shore up its economy, 474 01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:05,210 not because those are the best. 475 01:00:05,210 --> 01:00:12,710 In fact, many experts say it's the issue of diminishing returns what worked before when China was still growing at a rapid rate? 476 01:00:12,710 --> 01:00:17,420 It's no longer effective. But why is China using these methods? 477 01:00:17,420 --> 01:00:21,470 It's because the fossil fuel industry is very powerful. 478 01:00:21,470 --> 01:00:27,200 Coal is a very powerful incumbent. Why is China financing coal plants overseas? 479 01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:33,470 They don't make economic sense. It's because the state owned fossil fuel companies are pushing it. 480 01:00:33,470 --> 01:00:41,240 This is the political reality. But the fact of the matter is that the air pollution is going up again. 481 01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:44,180 So when you have public concern rising, 482 01:00:44,180 --> 01:00:53,990 that's when China takes action and when people see there's ways to make money and to transition to close clean energy jobs, 483 01:00:53,990 --> 01:00:59,720 that's when you're going to really see a change. We've already seen, I mean, the fact of the matter is, as I've said, 484 01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:07,910 the coal consumption and the CO2 emissions are still not where they were before the air apocalypse. 485 01:01:07,910 --> 01:01:12,670 Because China is serious, it has a lot of its own reasons. 486 01:01:12,670 --> 01:01:18,890 It's it's only going to act in its own best interest, whether it be climate, environment or economy. 487 01:01:18,890 --> 01:01:24,440 And it's only a question of how China defines its own self-interest. 488 01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:32,450 Thank you. Nice try. My name is Nicholas, president of a member of the International Society for the Study of Time. 489 01:01:32,450 --> 01:01:41,990 A question often raised meetings. Here is how you deal with climate variability and the variability of day and night in these systems. 490 01:01:41,990 --> 01:01:49,070 And the answer usually is enormous coverage of land with batteries and other identifiable assets. 491 01:01:49,070 --> 01:01:54,680 How is China coping and how, broadly speaking, do you see the answer to this question? 492 01:01:54,680 --> 01:02:02,090 Thank you. Let's take this up here and then this is take two more then. 493 01:02:02,090 --> 01:02:05,720 Make it short, please. I study law in Chicago. 494 01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:14,750 I wonder if you think that China's grasp on the renewable market is in the bag or do you think if a Democrat becomes president 2020, 495 01:02:14,750 --> 01:02:19,900 the U.S. can rival in that sector? One more question for you. 496 01:02:19,900 --> 01:02:31,530 Hold on. Oh, hi there. 497 01:02:31,530 --> 01:02:36,600 I'm Rebecca. I am a second year candidate in the School of Geography and Environment for a PhD. 498 01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:43,680 I lived and worked in China for a year with the Nature Conservancy, and we were dealing a lot with the issue of hydropower. 499 01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:50,910 And my question is, what's your opinion or stance on the role of hydropower within the renewable energy future, 500 01:02:50,910 --> 01:02:54,930 both within China and Ashley and its investments internationally? 501 01:02:54,930 --> 01:02:57,690 Thank you. OK, three issues, OK? Three issues. 502 01:02:57,690 --> 01:03:08,520 So in terms of the variability of renewable energy, China is capturing the field on energy storage and batteries, and it has some of the largest. 503 01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:14,290 You know, we've heard in the news about Tesla was building a Gigafactory four for electric vehicle batteries. 504 01:03:14,290 --> 01:03:23,190 Well, China's building giga cities. I would term them entire cities just devoted to building electric batteries. 505 01:03:23,190 --> 01:03:26,520 And the good news there, once again, is that China's brought. 506 01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:36,300 Because of this, China's brought down the cost of batteries of electric batteries again by nearly three quarters in just five years. 507 01:03:36,300 --> 01:03:41,970 We cannot keep up with that. That's why electric vehicles will soon be cost competitive. 508 01:03:41,970 --> 01:03:51,240 That's why solar and wind will be able to be integrated on the grid as variable energy sources. 509 01:03:51,240 --> 01:03:58,230 But that's not the only option. China's invested in pumped hydro, which I will talk about in a minute. 510 01:03:58,230 --> 01:04:09,510 China's looking at options, and this is in our report for building more flexibility into the grid so that the the grid operators can react 511 01:04:09,510 --> 01:04:17,040 more quickly to the availability of solar and wind and aren't stuck with just continuing to accept coal power, 512 01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:21,510 no matter how dirty or expensive it is becoming. 513 01:04:21,510 --> 01:04:28,830 So I'm a similar point your question about the U.S. and China on renewable energy. 514 01:04:28,830 --> 01:04:34,380 The race is nowhere near over. And again, I want to point out to my mind, it's not a U.S. China race. 515 01:04:34,380 --> 01:04:44,460 It's a race between solar and coal. But what the US, who invented the solar cell has still is the lead in innovation. 516 01:04:44,460 --> 01:04:47,070 And unfortunately, we've been squandering that. 517 01:04:47,070 --> 01:04:55,650 Our president has been trying every year in his proposed budget to slash the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R&D. 518 01:04:55,650 --> 01:05:00,480 And so that has really stifled our innovation. 519 01:05:00,480 --> 01:05:11,520 But there has to be there's such enormous opportunity to develop the next type of renewable energy that's going to be even faster and cheaper. 520 01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:13,590 And there's potential again, 521 01:05:13,590 --> 01:05:23,370 for the whole new wonderful report by some Stanford researchers called the new Solar System that spells out exactly the benefits, 522 01:05:23,370 --> 01:05:28,500 the comparative advantage of each country and how they can work together to benefit 523 01:05:28,500 --> 01:05:35,910 themselves by together ramping up the global solar and wind markets and hydropower and, 524 01:05:35,910 --> 01:05:41,970 yes, China. You know, when we hear these non-fossil targets, it sounds good. 525 01:05:41,970 --> 01:05:50,610 It's not at all just solar and wind. China leads the world in hydropower by far, but there's, you know, 526 01:05:50,610 --> 01:05:58,620 a lot of people don't consider it renewable because of these severe environmental problems that it causes. 527 01:05:58,620 --> 01:06:04,620 And China is not just within China itself, but in the countries downstream. 528 01:06:04,620 --> 01:06:15,540 And most of the major rivers of Asia find begin in China, and China has been very busy damming them up, leading to severe droughts downstream. 529 01:06:15,540 --> 01:06:22,800 China is beginning. I'm seeing the glimmer of changes here for two reasons, I think. 530 01:06:22,800 --> 01:06:30,570 One is that the impacts of climate change water scarcity in China is one of the major ones. 531 01:06:30,570 --> 01:06:35,520 So the water table in these rivers is dropping and they are no longer you're seeing the amount of 532 01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:44,220 power that is being generated by these dams is is dropping and will continue to drop so that again, 533 01:06:44,220 --> 01:06:48,240 economic cost because solar and wind is getting so cheap. 534 01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:56,460 All the other forms of energy are finding it difficult to find that power up ramp up. 535 01:06:56,460 --> 01:07:08,820 And here's what I thought was very telling. Remember, I mentioned that China is talking about increasing its target for renewable energy by 2030. 536 01:07:08,820 --> 01:07:19,470 This current one is non-fossil, but they're setting one just for solar and wind, not even for hydro and when they're developing. 537 01:07:19,470 --> 01:07:24,750 They started this already last year, developing renewable energy quotas for every province. 538 01:07:24,750 --> 01:07:28,630 They have to for every province one is including. 539 01:07:28,630 --> 01:07:34,240 Hydro and the other is not including hydro, so they recognise a different programme. 540 01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:38,350 One more question why didn't you ask a question that you were going to ask? 541 01:07:38,350 --> 01:07:49,360 And then I got my four individual companies so long term investment on development, more efficient energy use would be costly and risky. 542 01:07:49,360 --> 01:07:51,070 So. Right. 543 01:07:51,070 --> 01:08:02,620 So in this case, I'm just thinking, should we just let the market just do its function or do we do think that what is the role of government in here? 544 01:08:02,620 --> 01:08:14,370 That's the question. And Mike, do you want ask a question? So the one thing you haven't addressed at all is the issue of food and agriculture. 545 01:08:14,370 --> 01:08:24,870 And I know it seems like in China there there are levels of of fertiliser application and therefore production and energy use is very high. 546 01:08:24,870 --> 01:08:31,680 Plus, their levels of imports from across the globe is leading to a lot of CO2 release as well. 547 01:08:31,680 --> 01:08:38,040 How are they factoring that into all of their calculations around greenhouse gases and around environmental sustainability? 548 01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:40,650 Yeah, I in fact, there are many, 549 01:08:40,650 --> 01:08:48,330 many issues other sources of of greenhouse gas emissions that just didn't have the scope in my book or am I talked to cover? 550 01:08:48,330 --> 01:08:57,000 And that's a very important one. That was actually the subject I was telling Sam of Energy CS First Project in China almost 30 years ago, 551 01:08:57,000 --> 01:09:01,140 we identified the fertiliser industry as a very important one. 552 01:09:01,140 --> 01:09:11,340 So China has developed. I mean, it's part of the IPCC, but it really relies on its own scientists, and it has come up with it several times now. 553 01:09:11,340 --> 01:09:21,570 But most recently, a 900 page climate change assessment report in I urge you to take a look because that's where they get into the brawl, 554 01:09:21,570 --> 01:09:29,680 the broader issues that you're talking about, including food and agriculture. 555 01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:34,800 Thank you. But again, it's not there. I can't pretend that it's their main focus right now. 556 01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:40,980 I hope someone's going to have a difficult question. You. But the gentleman at the back and we can take maybe one or two more question. 557 01:09:40,980 --> 01:09:45,900 Barbara, thanks so much for your talk today. Roger Ailes of Palo Alto, California. 558 01:09:45,900 --> 01:09:54,810 I'm channelling my son, who was born in California, studied Earth systems at Stanford, and Siddharth was an NRDC fellow. 559 01:09:54,810 --> 01:10:00,330 So the question here, it's a comment and a question or an asking a question. 560 01:10:00,330 --> 01:10:05,250 First of all, could you compare and contrast California and China? 561 01:10:05,250 --> 01:10:15,420 That false sense of what states are nation states leave the U.S. to the side, leave Trump to the side, please speak to California and China. 562 01:10:15,420 --> 01:10:20,080 And then secondarily, is it really China who will save the Earth or is it California? 563 01:10:20,080 --> 01:10:27,150 Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Yes, my colleagues in our San Francisco office are always making that point for me. 564 01:10:27,150 --> 01:10:37,110 And in fact, what what one of the things we've done for 30 years is to bring experts from California to China to share their best practises. 565 01:10:37,110 --> 01:10:40,740 But increasingly, it's going in the other direction as well. 566 01:10:40,740 --> 01:10:46,890 I remember Arnold Schwarzenegger coming to China several times to beg for high speed rail. 567 01:10:46,890 --> 01:10:56,760 China leads the world in high speed rail, and a year ago there's something called the Clean Energy Ministerial, 568 01:10:56,760 --> 01:11:06,060 where energy ministers from every country who wishes to attend come together to discuss sharing energy policies and technologies, 569 01:11:06,060 --> 01:11:14,160 and Beijing hosted it last year. So our current secretary of energy, Rick Perry, can. 570 01:11:14,160 --> 01:11:18,480 But the Chinese minister wouldn't meet with him. Who did he meet with? 571 01:11:18,480 --> 01:11:25,350 Jerry Brown and Jerry Brown has been to China many times and signed a series of environmental agreements, in fact, 572 01:11:25,350 --> 01:11:33,390 that we we facilitated we meaning NRDC and another NGO that I founded in San Francisco 573 01:11:33,390 --> 01:11:37,410 ten years ago called the China-U.S. Energy Efficiency Alliance because China, 574 01:11:37,410 --> 01:11:47,520 California leads the world in efficiency. We facilitated the first province to California Clean Energy Agreement, and I'm very happy to say that. 575 01:11:47,520 --> 01:11:53,880 Just the other day, Jerry Brown announced that he's setting up a California China institute to 576 01:11:53,880 --> 01:11:58,800 help that exchange to continue because that's where the action is right now. 577 01:11:58,800 --> 01:12:07,290 So before I think we're going have to stop that there's an opportunity to have a drink together next door in a cafe and talk more 578 01:12:07,290 --> 01:12:14,670 to Barbara as an opportunity to buy a book in here or at the cafe in the cafe next door as quite a limited number of copies. 579 01:12:14,670 --> 01:12:21,510 So they almost go first, come first before Radhika makes a closing comment. 580 01:12:21,510 --> 01:12:25,740 As a closing comment or a forward looking, it's a forward looking question. 581 01:12:25,740 --> 01:12:30,000 I want you just to think about the answer to the question that's written on the front of the book. 582 01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:37,620 Will China save the planet? I think we've heard a pretty balanced assessment about it might or it might not work at national. 583 01:12:37,620 --> 01:12:43,410 I think this really important point about the subnational actors has come out very strongly today, but it works regionally. 584 01:12:43,410 --> 01:12:47,550 We heard about the Belt and Road and it works significantly in international level. 585 01:12:47,550 --> 01:12:55,110 So while Radhika is putting her question and before you leave, you know, actually think about what you're going to do with your hand in a minute, 586 01:12:55,110 --> 01:12:59,610 whether it's a yes or no to the question of whether China will save the planet radical, 587 01:12:59,610 --> 01:13:05,640 why didn't you ask the question what people think it might help? My question might help in formulating that answer. 588 01:13:05,640 --> 01:13:09,600 It's really about the negotiations that are coming up this year in Chile. 589 01:13:09,600 --> 01:13:16,710 And, you know, given that the US has decided to exit the stage and the US-China bilateral was 590 01:13:16,710 --> 01:13:21,570 really key in formulating the Paris Agreement and the text and the Paris Agreement. 591 01:13:21,570 --> 01:13:29,210 Do you see China occupying that stage, which is currently vacant at the international negotiations? 592 01:13:29,210 --> 01:13:33,720 Oh, that's the $64000 question. 593 01:13:33,720 --> 01:13:38,460 I do say that in my experience, China does not want to act alone. 594 01:13:38,460 --> 01:13:41,370 Their answer to this question is no. 595 01:13:41,370 --> 01:13:54,150 So that's why things like UK's recent decision to adopt a zero carbon net zero carbon target for 2050 is so important. 596 01:13:54,150 --> 01:14:00,450 That's why the EU cooperation with China on climate change is so important. 597 01:14:00,450 --> 01:14:06,240 That's why the state to China cooperation is so important. 598 01:14:06,240 --> 01:14:12,270 China will not act alone. Okay, so the question isn't can China save the planet? 599 01:14:12,270 --> 01:14:19,540 Is the question is, will China save the planet? Those in favour? 600 01:14:19,540 --> 01:14:25,500 Come on, hold hands up. OK. 601 01:14:25,500 --> 01:14:35,590 Those who think it won't. Barbara, I didn't see what you did with your hands. 602 01:14:35,590 --> 01:14:39,130 Fine, we have to come back and say that we had to buy the book. Yes, that's right. 603 01:14:39,130 --> 01:14:44,470 All right, Barbara, thank you very, very much. It's been very engaging, very illuminating. 604 01:14:44,470 --> 01:14:48,430 I think we all knew a bit about China. We all know a lot more now. 605 01:14:48,430 --> 01:15:07,806 So please, David, thank you very much indeed.