1 00:00:06,520 --> 00:00:14,320 Hello, everyone, and a very warm welcome to the first in a new series of conversations titled Oxford Net Zero Climate in the Balance, 2 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:19,510 which will run weekly throughout the term. First up, huge apologies for the slight delay. 3 00:00:19,510 --> 00:00:22,450 Technical gremlins as expected on the first one of these series. 4 00:00:22,450 --> 00:00:28,510 Hopefully we'll have them ironed out from now on and we'll give you a seamless set of conversations. 5 00:00:28,510 --> 00:00:33,160 This series will take us on a Wide-Ranging journey across the issues and questions the world 6 00:00:33,160 --> 00:00:38,740 needs to tackle as we transitions in that zero emissions and hence the stable climate, 7 00:00:38,740 --> 00:00:44,050 hopefully in an effective and equitable way. And we'll be doing so by talking to the leading lights of Oxford. 8 00:00:44,050 --> 00:00:53,080 Net zero. Oxford Net Zero is a new university funded initiative, bringing together experts from across departments including geography, 9 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:58,230 physics, economics, biology, law and earth sciences, a really wide range. 10 00:00:58,230 --> 00:01:04,930 And the aim is to provide key insights and resources at this critical juncture for international action on climate change. 11 00:01:04,930 --> 00:01:12,220 My name is Steve Smith. I'm based at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment and I'm executive director of Oxfam Net Zero. 12 00:01:12,220 --> 00:01:16,930 It's my pleasure to chair these conversations. Now, before we go on, 13 00:01:16,930 --> 00:01:25,300 I should let you know that this talk is being recorded and also that we very much encourage you to ask questions as we go throughout these sessions. 14 00:01:25,300 --> 00:01:31,090 And to do so, you must be locked into crowd casts, viewing it on crowd cost rather than via YouTube. 15 00:01:31,090 --> 00:01:39,280 And hopefully, if you are in crowd cast, you can see and ask a question button at the bottom right of the screen and you can write in your question. 16 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:44,020 And equally importantly, you can vote up existing questions that you like. 17 00:01:44,020 --> 00:01:49,960 And I'm gonna do my best to ensure that we cover a good number of those before we close. 18 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:55,450 Now, to help me with this first seminar, this first conversation, 19 00:01:55,450 --> 00:02:03,050 I'm delighted to have three other members of Oxford and zero the team with me who will be helping set the scene with why net zero. 20 00:02:03,050 --> 00:02:08,520 So I have Professor Myles Allen, Caia Axelsson and Professor Sam Fankhauser. 21 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:15,490 And the way we're going to structure this is that each of them is going to talk for hopefully no more than five minutes Miles, on why net zero? 22 00:02:15,490 --> 00:02:20,440 So the physics of the climate system, which leads us to be talking about net zero in the first place. 23 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:25,300 Sam is going to talk about why net zero is relevant to our activities as a society. 24 00:02:25,300 --> 00:02:31,420 So where do emissions come from and where are the key challenges? Where do they lie in terms of economic sectors? 25 00:02:31,420 --> 00:02:36,650 And then CIA is going to talk about the why and how of net zero organisational and individual levels. 26 00:02:36,650 --> 00:02:42,790 So in particular, what are the tools and information needed to drive net zero ambition and importantly, action? 27 00:02:42,790 --> 00:02:52,930 Of course, after that, we're going to open it up to a bit of conversation and ask as many of your questions as possible to to these three people. 28 00:02:52,930 --> 00:02:57,640 So we're gonna kick off with Professor Myles Allen. Many of you will know Miles already. 29 00:02:57,640 --> 00:03:04,090 He is a professor of Geo Systems Science in the School of Geography and the Environment and the Department of Physics as well. 30 00:03:04,090 --> 00:03:13,240 He's actually been described as the physicist behind net zero on BBC Radio four and is also the overall director of Oxford Net Zero. 31 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:20,160 So, Miles, hopefully your slides are going to work well and I'm gonna hand it over to you. 32 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:27,360 Thank you very much indeed, Steve. And yes, I just wanted to show you a few slides which Hal is putting up for me. 33 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:33,450 Thanks, Hannah. And we'll start off with the science of net zero normally. 34 00:03:33,450 --> 00:03:39,320 But the science talk is considered the complicated one, and then we get onto the sort of more straightforward stuff. 35 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,890 But actually, when it comes to net zero, it's almost the other way round. 36 00:03:43,890 --> 00:03:48,360 The science is zero is really astonishingly simple. 37 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:53,250 And it's summarised by are attracted logo are created for us. 38 00:03:53,250 --> 00:04:00,810 Our last term. And if we go to the first slide, we can illustrate the point of this logo. 39 00:04:00,810 --> 00:04:12,030 So the the fundamental observation that underlies the fact that we need to get to net zero emissions is that it's cumulative 40 00:04:12,030 --> 00:04:20,790 carbon dioxide warming equivalent emissions to the time of peak warming that determine the level of temperature we end up at. 41 00:04:20,790 --> 00:04:28,950 So this was an insight that really came out of research in the 2000s that it was the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 42 00:04:28,950 --> 00:04:34,260 The globe drove global temperatures, not the rate of emission at any particular year. 43 00:04:34,260 --> 00:04:40,710 I hope you can see the whole slide, by the way, because it's it's slightly corrupted on my screen, but hopefully great. 44 00:04:40,710 --> 00:04:44,550 That's that's just sorted it out. Thank you, Hannah. 45 00:04:44,550 --> 00:04:55,470 So so it's that sort of Left-Hand Wedge is the as a schematic of the accumulation of carbon dioxide emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. 46 00:04:55,470 --> 00:05:05,400 And the reason we sort of sketched it in this way is that it's almost inevitable that a pathway to net zero will look something like this. 47 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:10,680 We've got we've got to start reducing emissions. We've got to start reducing emissions as soon as we can. 48 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:20,490 And the longer we delay reducing emissions, so the longer that round hump at the beginning of this declining pathway to net zero, 49 00:05:20,490 --> 00:05:27,780 the faster we have to reduce them in the future. It's analogies to the motion of a braking time if you're approaching the stop sign. 50 00:05:27,780 --> 00:05:31,590 You've got a few seconds to go before you reach the stop sign. 51 00:05:31,590 --> 00:05:38,400 The longer you put off hitting the brakes, the harder you're gonna have to brakes brake to actually stop in time. 52 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:47,400 And so that's that pay off. We see between delaying now and faster reductions in the future to achieve the same climate goal. 53 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:57,870 Given this challenge, it's almost inevitable if we go to the next slide that the amount we can reduce our production of carbon dioxide, 54 00:05:57,870 --> 00:06:06,000 which is the outer envelope of these three curves. The total amount of carbon dioxide we're producing from our continued use of fossil fuels, 55 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:11,430 the amount we can reduce it by reducing production of carbon dioxide alone, 56 00:06:11,430 --> 00:06:19,260 by changing behaviour patterns, electrifying transport and so forth, won't be enough to get emissions down in time. 57 00:06:19,260 --> 00:06:27,150 So there's an urgent need to complement near-term emission reductions with nature based climate solutions. 58 00:06:27,150 --> 00:06:40,020 So storing carbon, restoring carbon back into the Earth's biosphere in wonderful resources such as our own white and woods, 59 00:06:40,020 --> 00:06:46,260 the acute minded, the acute eyes amongst you may spot that's a little scene of white in there. 60 00:06:46,260 --> 00:06:51,630 But one thing I'm doing here in this schematic, and this is where, you know, here's a schematic, 61 00:06:51,630 --> 00:06:57,150 but it does illustrate the big issues we need to think about are in on the paths to net zero. 62 00:06:57,150 --> 00:07:02,850 Is that this process, as we move forward in time to the right of the slide? 63 00:07:02,850 --> 00:07:08,370 This process of storing carbon in the biosphere has an end date to it. 64 00:07:08,370 --> 00:07:13,290 At some point, we will reach, as it were, peak tree. 65 00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:21,450 At some point, our ability to store carbon in the biosphere, if we go to the next slide, please, is going to run out, 66 00:07:21,450 --> 00:07:28,920 because in the longer term, net carbon dioxide uptake by the biosphere must decline due to Earth's system feedbacks. 67 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:38,070 So many of the natural process systems we have that currently absorb carbon or could absorb carbon if they were better managed from the atmosphere, 68 00:07:38,070 --> 00:07:42,450 will struggle to continue to absorb carbon at the same rate as the world warms. 69 00:07:42,450 --> 00:07:48,480 That's just due to the warming we're going to get from from the emissions we're already committed to. 70 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,180 So this doesn't apps I should very much stress on. 71 00:07:51,180 --> 00:07:58,290 And Nathalie Seddon is going to be coming back to nature based climate solutions later in this in this series. 72 00:07:58,290 --> 00:08:02,120 This absolutely doesn't undermine the importance of nature based climate solutions. 73 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:10,410 In fact, it's it's vitally important that we conserve and we protect natural carbon sinks in 74 00:08:10,410 --> 00:08:16,650 order to to to put off the time at which they they may be degraded by warming itself. 75 00:08:16,650 --> 00:08:24,210 But we also have to acknowledge that. The process of turning fossil fuels into trees, so to speak, just a caricature. 76 00:08:24,210 --> 00:08:35,700 The whole thing can't go on forever. And the devil is in need if we go to the next slide, please, to scale up geological carbon dioxide storage. 77 00:08:35,700 --> 00:08:40,420 And that final wedge is the. Is this carbon dark? 78 00:08:40,420 --> 00:08:47,980 If the carbon dioxide. We will need to pump back underground if we go to the final slide. 79 00:08:47,980 --> 00:08:52,480 The destination we need to be aiming for is what we might call hard. 80 00:08:52,480 --> 00:09:01,780 Net zero. That's a situation in which one ton, every ton of CO2 that's generated by the burning of fossil fuels needs to be re fossilised. 81 00:09:01,780 --> 00:09:10,600 We need to move on from changing fossil fuels into active forms of carbon, either in the atmosphere or in the surface biosphere. 82 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:17,770 And we need to essentially stop fossil fuels from causing global warming by pumping CO2 back down underground. 83 00:09:17,770 --> 00:09:21,640 And that's going to be our ultimate destination for achieving net zero. 84 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,870 So that's really sets the parameters, these sort of three things we need to do. 85 00:09:25,870 --> 00:09:33,100 Reducing consumption, reducing the production of CO2 in the first place, offsetting by some as far as we can, 86 00:09:33,100 --> 00:09:41,080 or remaining emissions with nature based climate solutions and recognising that in the long term we need to be moving to our 87 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:49,150 geological storage of the remaining CO2 we produce as the only way of ultimately stopping fossil fuels from causing global warming. 88 00:09:49,150 --> 00:09:51,970 That's the scientific context in which we're working. 89 00:09:51,970 --> 00:09:57,310 And that's the challenge which the economists like Sam Fankhauser are going to have to step up to. 90 00:09:57,310 --> 00:10:01,840 Over to Sam. Thank you, Miles. 91 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,990 Just just before I start up, before I introduce Sam, 92 00:10:04,990 --> 00:10:12,190 I'm going to take chairmen's privilege and ask you a question with a very quick response since you're the climate scientist in this conversation. 93 00:10:12,190 --> 00:10:18,170 What actually happens to the climate system when we get to net zero CO2 emissions? 94 00:10:18,170 --> 00:10:26,100 Oh, we get to net zero CO2. It's no longer seeing any carbon dioxide induced warming. 95 00:10:26,100 --> 00:10:32,310 So carbon and we then get stable temperatures. We don't we don't see any further warming that's cooling either. 96 00:10:32,310 --> 00:10:38,580 If you want to draw temperatures down again, you actually have to actively take CO2 back out of the atmosphere. 97 00:10:38,580 --> 00:10:46,860 There are other pollutants which cause warming as well. And so that's why we increasingly talk in terms of warming equivalent emissions, 98 00:10:46,860 --> 00:10:56,370 which is a composite of the various greenhouse gases we are dealing with that have the same warming impact as CO2. 99 00:10:56,370 --> 00:11:03,480 There's a technical discussion we can wander off on, too, if if we if anybody, anybody's interested as to exactly how we define warming emissions. 100 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:09,960 But that's the essential point, is that they they have the same warming impact on the climate system as CO2 itself. 101 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:16,920 And the crucial point is if you stop CO2 emissions, you stop causing warming, but you don't undo the warming you've already caused. 102 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:25,350 So the warming caused by British emissions up until till now will remain in the climate system indefinitely unless we 103 00:11:25,350 --> 00:11:31,960 actually actively take some of the CO2 that we have already dumped into the atmosphere back out again in the future. 104 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:38,920 Thanks. Good to know. So if if we're serious about stabilising temperatures at any level, we'll be at one and a half to three, four degrees. 105 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:43,430 We have to ultimately reach this net zero CO2 and point. But some still have to get. 106 00:11:43,430 --> 00:11:48,910 Yeah, we have to get exactly. We have to get CO2 emissions back down to zero. Thank you very much, Miles. 107 00:11:48,910 --> 00:11:51,370 I'm going to pass it over to Sam Funkhouser now. 108 00:11:51,370 --> 00:11:59,260 Now, Sam is currently the director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. 109 00:11:59,260 --> 00:12:00,710 And many of you will know him, too. 110 00:12:00,710 --> 00:12:08,930 His work to the forefront not only of research in climate economics, but also advising policymakers and businesses in many contexts. 111 00:12:08,930 --> 00:12:15,220 Now, we're delighted that Sam is actually gonna be joining us later in the spring at Oxford to become professor of Climate Change, 112 00:12:15,220 --> 00:12:19,870 Economics and Policy and the director of research for Scrubland Zero. 113 00:12:19,870 --> 00:12:24,770 So over to you, Sam. Thanks, Steve. 114 00:12:24,770 --> 00:12:29,710 That. I can see that you can see it. 115 00:12:29,710 --> 00:12:38,230 Can you hear me all right? Can you see my screen hope? Yeah, it's it's it's great to be part of Oxford next year at the moment. 116 00:12:38,230 --> 00:12:49,180 I'm still part of the LSC. So dislikes, you're going to see a combination of work that I've done in the past and some of the Oxford maps, euro scenes. 117 00:12:49,180 --> 00:12:56,830 The question I'm going to answer in the sense of trying to answer is to what extent is the economics and the 118 00:12:56,830 --> 00:13:03,820 policy of the politics of net zero different from the economics and the policy of climate change has been, 119 00:13:03,820 --> 00:13:12,400 as we had it for many years and many decades. The opening thing I'm going to say is that one big thing that's changed over the last, say, 120 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:21,100 to maybe two years or so is that there is now a big, broad societal consensus about the need to do something about climate change. 121 00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:24,850 Two years ago or so, you have to make the case for climate action. 122 00:13:24,850 --> 00:13:29,210 You have to ask you why it was important. You have to explain what it was. 123 00:13:29,210 --> 00:13:33,520 And that sort of narrative has really shifted. 124 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:38,320 A lot of people now understand why climate change is important. 125 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:45,490 And I tell you, six feet pictures here of wider societal consensus is so broad. 126 00:13:45,490 --> 00:13:47,970 It isn't just the ones you're familiar with, 127 00:13:47,970 --> 00:13:55,900 the sort of national governments passing climate policies or civil society, people going on school strike and so on. 128 00:13:55,900 --> 00:14:00,940 We also see a lot of work, a lot of interest in local communities, for example. 129 00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:09,160 And in the UK there something like 400 or so local councils, some 300 of them have declared the climate emergency. 130 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:16,180 And they're starting to take actions including very participatory things like climate assemblies and citizens juries. 131 00:14:16,180 --> 00:14:24,400 As you see in the little picture of Leeds Leapster, the courts are also increasingly taking an interest in climate change, 132 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:33,940 are starting to to implement the legislative assets that exist and they are starting to do on climate change. 133 00:14:33,940 --> 00:14:38,620 The picture, I fear, is of a Dutch NGO that the Dutch government, 134 00:14:38,620 --> 00:14:45,550 the court and one the Dutch government had to tighten its climate change provisions in climate change ambitions. 135 00:14:45,550 --> 00:14:53,650 I would all in the world, there's something like fourteen hundred climate change court cases already. 136 00:14:53,650 --> 00:15:00,850 I will tell you another time about finance and what happens when the fish shop, when the stock exchange. 137 00:15:00,850 --> 00:15:06,100 Let's look a little bit about the picture there in the middle of those national government actions. 138 00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:11,990 The picture you see there is the number of climate change laws that there exists in the world. 139 00:15:11,990 --> 00:15:20,080 There's about two thousand of them. And the good news is that every country in the world is doing something about climate change. 140 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:24,520 The bad news is it doesn't add up to net zero yet. 141 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:33,200 The little waterfall chart you're looking at here is a piece of sort of counterfactual analysis that we recently date and we tried 142 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:44,080 to calculate how much carbon dioxide would have been emitted if there had been no climate change action whatsoever since 1999. 143 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:53,600 And the answer is that between 1999 and 2016 and we would have saved about one year's worth of carbon emissions. 144 00:15:53,600 --> 00:16:01,300 So about 38 kickett tons of CO2. That's a lot of carbon, but it doesn't sort of make a lot of inroads. 145 00:16:01,300 --> 00:16:08,620 It doesn't use a lot of carbon space in the diagram that mindset shown you a while ago. 146 00:16:08,620 --> 00:16:19,900 That Boatful also shows you here that it's about 40 percent of the emissions growth since 1999 has been avoided through climate legislation. 147 00:16:19,900 --> 00:16:27,290 Of course, that means that 60 percent has still happened. And that, in a sense, gets us to the challenge of net zero, 148 00:16:27,290 --> 00:16:35,050 to the things that make net zero different from from just climate politics and climate policy as we have had it. 149 00:16:35,050 --> 00:16:40,920 Let me give you three items that I think are particularly sort of salient for next. 150 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:47,290 You wrote on the first one is the first challenge is that we have to speed up that, 151 00:16:47,290 --> 00:16:52,510 that the action at that the speed at which we reduce our emissions. 152 00:16:52,510 --> 00:16:56,890 This chart jockey is quite busy, but hopefully in Twitter, if it's also quite old. 153 00:16:56,890 --> 00:17:05,470 But let me quickly talk you through it. The formula there on the right tells you what determines carbon emissions in the energy sector. 154 00:17:05,470 --> 00:17:10,540 And it's a combination pathologically, almost a combination of three factors. 155 00:17:10,540 --> 00:17:14,500 One is the amount of CO2 that we use per unit of energy. 156 00:17:14,500 --> 00:17:21,220 So the carbon intensity of our energy. The second is how much energy use per unit of GDP. 157 00:17:21,220 --> 00:17:25,450 So that's our energy intensity. And then the final one is GDP. 158 00:17:25,450 --> 00:17:27,370 So our economic output. 159 00:17:27,370 --> 00:17:36,340 We don't want to reduce economic output, which means we have to play around with the CO2 intensity of energy and the energy intensive just yet at GDP. 160 00:17:36,340 --> 00:17:42,550 You see those here on the two axis, on the Y axis, you have the CO2 intensity on the x axis. 161 00:17:42,550 --> 00:17:51,430 You have energy intensity. Each dot is a country. And you see that a lot of countries, particularly the grey and low income countries, 162 00:17:51,430 --> 00:17:59,050 are still intensifying their their CO2 and the energy that their carbon ising their energy sector. 163 00:17:59,050 --> 00:18:06,160 But most countries are to the left of the chart. That means energy intensity of GDP is improving. 164 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:12,880 That's the good news. The bad news is look at that red line there to be on on the path that even for two degrees, 165 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:20,200 let alone one and a half degrees, warming each country, each one of those stocks would have to be below the red line. 166 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:30,080 They would have to have a combination of their carbon intensity and energy intensity at this at this more than five percent reduction a year. 167 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:39,000 And you see there's only a handful of countries doing that. So challenge number one, speeding up the rate of decarbonisation. 168 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,730 Talash, number two, follows directly from that, 169 00:18:41,730 --> 00:18:48,960 and that's that we have to move from the sort of sectors that we have learnt to associate with climate action, 170 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:54,360 with renewable energy and energy efficiency, which are, in inverted commas, the easy things. 171 00:18:54,360 --> 00:19:02,580 We have to start moving to the broader set of emissions and to start looking at the difficult emissions that we also have. 172 00:19:02,580 --> 00:19:08,490 You've all heard sort of words like that, the race to net zero or the race of our lives. 173 00:19:08,490 --> 00:19:17,250 If you think of net zero as a race, the electric power sector, surface transport, electric cars and renewables, they're ahead in the race. 174 00:19:17,250 --> 00:19:21,060 You're not there yet, but it's happening. It's starting to happen. 175 00:19:21,060 --> 00:19:25,770 The challenge of net zero is that we start looking at the stragglers at the back of this race. 176 00:19:25,770 --> 00:19:31,320 How do we decarbonise aviation? How could it be carbonised agriculture and industry? 177 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:36,960 So the second challenge is to start looking at those difficult emissions. 178 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:44,420 The third challenge I'm going to give you is the net in net zero. We're not talking about reducing gross emissions to zero. 179 00:19:44,420 --> 00:19:50,280 We're allowing for an element of offsetting residual emissions through negative emissions. 180 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:56,370 My last month has talked about what those might be a mixture of nature based solutions, 181 00:19:56,370 --> 00:20:02,760 like a forestation and technical solutions, like direct their capture and so on. 182 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:12,450 Now, these things don't happen on their own. They don't have a value unless the government intervenes and incentivised these things to happen. 183 00:20:12,450 --> 00:20:17,250 So a third challenge is how do we give negative emissions an economic value? 184 00:20:17,250 --> 00:20:20,610 How do we incentivise people to produce them? 185 00:20:20,610 --> 00:20:27,390 For us, the various ways in which we can do that. That this info graphic here shows you two. 186 00:20:27,390 --> 00:20:31,280 And I'm not going to go into the details, but just to tell you what the two are, 187 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,130 you can I just think of a market solution where everybody who emits a positive ton 188 00:20:35,130 --> 00:20:41,880 of CO2 has to buy a negative time to sort of offset the balance individually. 189 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:46,590 Another approach is that the government, through collective action, 190 00:20:46,590 --> 00:20:56,020 buys up and incentivises and procures negative emissions through auctions in the way that the government auctions renewable energy, for example. 191 00:20:56,020 --> 00:21:00,180 And there's a lot of technical details as to which one of those we should do. 192 00:21:00,180 --> 00:21:07,830 But we definitely, as a big challenge of net zero, have to make sure that the net thought the negative emissions actually happen. 193 00:21:07,830 --> 00:21:18,210 Let me stop here. And Tando drew Kaiya. Thanks so much, Sam. 194 00:21:18,210 --> 00:21:27,490 So I'm going to build on much of that. I think a lot of people ask me about my job with Oxford Net zero. 195 00:21:27,490 --> 00:21:32,890 They asked a lot about greenwashing. Sort of trusts are a net zero trajectory. 196 00:21:32,890 --> 00:21:42,460 So I think I'll start with the moment of hope, which is that 2020 is a real landslide year for increased net zero ambition. 197 00:21:42,460 --> 00:21:45,520 According to Oxford and and Steve Smiths and Thomas Hale, 198 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:54,520 the research net Netzer commitments now covers sixty three percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and 80 percent of GDP. 199 00:21:54,520 --> 00:22:01,240 And I'm going to talk about kind of stricter criteria that we've helped to develop for the UNbacked Race to zero campaign. 200 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:11,290 Well, 50 percent of net zero targets within 50 percent of GDP covered by net zero targets is in the race to zero sort of stricter criteria. 201 00:22:11,290 --> 00:22:18,830 But, you know, a lot of a lot of people are concerned about the credibility of these targets. 202 00:22:18,830 --> 00:22:26,020 The U.N. AP puts out an annual emissions gap report of underlying simps points. 203 00:22:26,020 --> 00:22:31,420 Many current nationally determined targets are exaggerations on what national policies are delivering, 204 00:22:31,420 --> 00:22:35,680 which means that we need to advocate for new policies that integrate the net zero 205 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:40,120 target even full implementation of our current nationally determined targets. 206 00:22:40,120 --> 00:22:47,770 Still, leaves are two degree carbon budget, 80 percent depleted by 2030 and missing this COP 26 window. 207 00:22:47,770 --> 00:22:55,510 Coming up in our option to revise nationally determined targets would make closing that 2030 emissions gap practically impossible. 208 00:22:55,510 --> 00:23:00,160 So it's really, really important that this year coming up is so important. 209 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,290 There's growing but limited evidence of the subnational action, the kind of, 210 00:23:04,290 --> 00:23:10,420 you know, private sector or regional or city level action filling that gap. 211 00:23:10,420 --> 00:23:19,900 But that just shows the importance of us all doing that work, because if we begin holding our own to high standards, 212 00:23:19,900 --> 00:23:26,110 that can often influence the nationally determined target process and create more ambition. 213 00:23:26,110 --> 00:23:32,440 So that's what we call the ambition loop, which I think brings me a lot of hope when I think about it. 214 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:33,790 And I've seen it in the UK, 215 00:23:33,790 --> 00:23:43,780 just as the UK has set out a net zero target working weekly with the UK government to think about how we incentivise action amongst small businesses, 216 00:23:43,780 --> 00:23:51,490 amongst large businesses, and then in turn those businesses, as they start figuring out their net zero strategies, 217 00:23:51,490 --> 00:23:56,500 put more pressure on the government to develop policies that are that are integrating and flowing with them. 218 00:23:56,500 --> 00:24:01,330 And I added this ambition loop graphic is, I think, really inspiring. 219 00:24:01,330 --> 00:24:05,530 It was developed by a coalition of climate action organisations. 220 00:24:05,530 --> 00:24:14,470 I added one more column here very cheaply, which is just this the role of innovation and the role of research in, you know, systemic. 221 00:24:14,470 --> 00:24:24,520 Did a report that seor, that showed that low carbon solutions could be competitive in 75 percent of sectors by 2030 compared to zero in 2015. 222 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,710 So that just shows you how hard people are working. 223 00:24:26,710 --> 00:24:33,800 The real heroes of the net zero process are things that engineers and innovators who are making this possible. 224 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:39,730 And we're going to create over thirty five million jobs, we might add, in the net zero transition. 225 00:24:39,730 --> 00:24:43,300 So who is in what we would call the race to zero, 226 00:24:43,300 --> 00:24:52,090 which is this U.N. backs campaign to build momentum around the shift to a decarbonised economy ahead of COP 26 and Glasgow and Oxford 227 00:24:52,090 --> 00:25:00,310 has been really privileged to be able to help develop the criteria that have kind of created a minimum for joining this race. 228 00:25:00,310 --> 00:25:01,960 Meaning that you have to have a more robust net, 229 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:09,440 zero target than sort of whatever you come up with in your kind of corporate strategy that you think means net zero. 230 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:14,170 I'll talk about that in a second. But there's 452 cities in the race to zero. 231 00:25:14,170 --> 00:25:17,850 I mean, and this is this is a race that started just a year ago. 232 00:25:17,850 --> 00:25:21,430 Twenty two regions, over a thousand businesses and growing every day. 233 00:25:21,430 --> 00:25:29,040 I've got a message on LinkedIn yesterday from someone who had seen me speak of the race to zero from a major food company. 234 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:33,650 And they they said we saw you speak. We said we join the race to zero. 235 00:25:33,650 --> 00:25:38,380 You think you're never making an impact and you get messages like that. Forty five investors and that's growing. 236 00:25:38,380 --> 00:25:45,160 There's a U.N. Asset Owners Alliance that's growing and growing. And universities like Oxford all over the world are in the race to zero. 237 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,900 Acting as thought leaders. So what are these minimum criteria that we've come up with? 238 00:25:49,900 --> 00:25:52,240 And I really have to say that it's not just an Oxford. 239 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:59,080 We had a huge coalition building process by which we invited all the smartest people that we know in climate action organisations, 240 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:05,440 practitioners who are actually developing their strategies for their business or for their city, for the region. 241 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:13,210 And we we brought them together and we kind of developed a four step plan, which is much more detailed if you go to our Web site. 242 00:26:13,210 --> 00:26:18,550 But the kind of premises that you have to pledge at the. Head of the organisation. So maybe that's a mayor. 243 00:26:18,550 --> 00:26:25,340 Maybe that's a CEO. You have to reach net zero in the twenty 40s or much sooner. 244 00:26:25,340 --> 00:26:27,470 And you have to set out a plan. 245 00:26:27,470 --> 00:26:34,340 I think what's wonderful about net zero targets is that just as Miles said, we start from our destination, which is Hardan at zero. 246 00:26:34,340 --> 00:26:40,640 Right. And then we move backwards from that. And that's unveiling all of these uncertainties that we have to deal with. 247 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:45,260 Oh, we need more research and development on on this aspect of decarbonisation. 248 00:26:45,260 --> 00:26:49,220 Oh, it looks like I'm relying on the same resource as another sector. 249 00:26:49,220 --> 00:26:57,260 It looks like we need to pool our resources to make sure that we have alternative options and we're not fighting over the same resource in 10 years. 250 00:26:57,260 --> 00:27:00,740 We need to take immediate action as part of our criteria. 251 00:27:00,740 --> 00:27:06,410 You know, it's not enough to just say you'll you'll push it down the line and we'll handle that in 30 years. 252 00:27:06,410 --> 00:27:11,600 If you're offsetting, you need to spell out how you're offsetting, which goes to Miles Point earlier. 253 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:17,960 And you also need to publish your progress at least annually, including Veha to the extent possible, 254 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:23,960 platforms that feed into the Global Action Tracker so that we know how far we've come. 255 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:32,490 And it's not just about ambition. So has been working really hard to help people actually do the work. 256 00:27:32,490 --> 00:27:38,970 We've been reviewing tools that we think might be helpful to businesses, cities, regions, investors. 257 00:27:38,970 --> 00:27:42,450 And we have them up on a Web site. And that tool library is incomplete. 258 00:27:42,450 --> 00:27:49,020 It's not a rubber stamp on any of these tools per say, but it's a first pass to say we think these tools are part of the solution. 259 00:27:49,020 --> 00:27:58,140 And we're encouraging and engaging with those tool providers to keep maintaining robust criteria and and strategies that are aligned with science. 260 00:27:58,140 --> 00:28:04,890 So you can go over to net zero climate dot org for explanations on net zero for definitions, for tools. 261 00:28:04,890 --> 00:28:11,850 And the last thing I'll just leave you with is that, you know, no matter who you are, where you work, if you're part of any institution, 262 00:28:11,850 --> 00:28:17,940 if your children are part of any institution anywhere, if you have a phone, you can help in the race to zero. 263 00:28:17,940 --> 00:28:26,190 Sometimes all it takes was the right person asking at the right time to make a major organisation shift its course, as I've seen in the last year. 264 00:28:26,190 --> 00:28:34,790 And here are just the logos of some examples of the Coalition's campaigns, all working to raise ambition across universities. 265 00:28:34,790 --> 00:28:39,570 The climate pledges a group of companies that are trying to do it, what they call 10 years early. 266 00:28:39,570 --> 00:28:43,380 I might call it 10 years late, but it's definitely earlier than 20 50. 267 00:28:43,380 --> 00:28:48,420 So those are all 20, 40 commitments. And then you've got the business ambition for one point five. 268 00:28:48,420 --> 00:28:55,820 Science based targets is working to align. And the Global Covenant of Mayors is, I think, joining the race to zero along with an SMB climate. 269 00:28:55,820 --> 00:28:59,520 Oxford has partnered with to help launch in the fall. 270 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:11,330 So if you know any organisation, ask them to join the race to zero and help us communicate the science that you've heard about today. 271 00:29:11,330 --> 00:29:20,130 Thank you very much, Sam and CIA, for those very comprehensive overviews of Miles as well, I should say, for those of you who don't know, Kyra. 272 00:29:20,130 --> 00:29:24,050 She's a policy engagement fellow for Oxford Net Zero and actually previously as 273 00:29:24,050 --> 00:29:28,490 a student and vice president of the University Student Union here at Oxford. 274 00:29:28,490 --> 00:29:33,440 She was really a driving force behind getting the university to set its own targets for net zero carbon 275 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:39,110 emissions and also to engage on net zero in fossil fuel divestment across this whole endowment portfolio. 276 00:29:39,110 --> 00:29:45,080 So really, really keen knowledge on how this works when the rubber really hits the road. 277 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:53,720 So after those oversights, overviews, where we're going to move to questions from from you, the audience, and ask the panel members to answer them. 278 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:59,510 So if you haven't already do look in the ask a question section, 279 00:29:59,510 --> 00:30:05,930 upvote those questions you like and and add your own and we'll get through as many of them as possible. 280 00:30:05,930 --> 00:30:11,210 The first one I'd like to ask is, is the most popular one at the moment. And that's a great question from Philip Michelson. 281 00:30:11,210 --> 00:30:16,400 I think I'll I'll ask you Caia and maybe some of the car about this. 282 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:20,060 Are there global standards for assessing net zero? 283 00:30:20,060 --> 00:30:29,450 I think, Kai, you touched on the race to zero criteria and perhaps that's a start, although what strikes me is that in a way quite process focussed. 284 00:30:29,450 --> 00:30:36,200 And I saw, for instance, an article just this morning on Bloomberg which was showing the amount of offsetting that 285 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:42,230 some companies with net zero strategies were were banking on using to meet net zero sum. 286 00:30:42,230 --> 00:30:46,760 Some from some industries, which you may say are going to have a genuine tough time to get to net zero. 287 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:52,640 So perhaps they're justified in using offsets, but also some other companies, you could argue, could could do more themselves. 288 00:30:52,640 --> 00:31:01,290 So, yes, I think global standards or what what would be the way you'd think about assessing a robust net zero target and strategy? 289 00:31:01,290 --> 00:31:05,370 Sure. So you mean you've just mentioned that one of our criteria in the race, Deserto, 290 00:31:05,370 --> 00:31:09,470 is that you should decarbonise as far as possible before you rely on offsetting? 291 00:31:09,470 --> 00:31:14,210 First of all, it's going to be probably cheaper than having to invest in. 292 00:31:14,210 --> 00:31:19,910 Ultimately, what we'll need for a sustainable net zero, which is geological storage options are much more expensive. 293 00:31:19,910 --> 00:31:24,330 So you might as well do the work of decarbonising, you know, the real work of doing it in-house first. 294 00:31:24,330 --> 00:31:26,390 So that's one kind of principle. 295 00:31:26,390 --> 00:31:32,960 But then I think that there are organisations that are really great and helping other organisations set in that territory. 296 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:39,440 So I think that the SETI is one that is looked on as a really high standard organisation. 297 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:44,720 You know, like every organisation, they I think they still have some work to do to be filene that zero aligned. 298 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:49,760 But I think then in terms of reporting this, TDP is often looked to. 299 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:53,250 But I think to answer your question fully and honestly, 300 00:31:53,250 --> 00:31:58,430 and this is something that's in development and very much something that Oxford is is helping on. 301 00:31:58,430 --> 00:32:08,930 We are developing standards as we go. This Race to Zero campaign is the first coordinated international campaign ahead of cop of this scale. 302 00:32:08,930 --> 00:32:16,880 And so sort of I think you'll see our research come out to try to devise methodology on new standards over the next year. 303 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:21,440 And I hope you stay tuned for that. Some models. 304 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:26,700 Do you think that should be a single global standard? And if so, what do you think should be in it? 305 00:32:26,700 --> 00:32:33,170 Yeah, I don't think we really have a global standard any time soon that there should be national standards 306 00:32:33,170 --> 00:32:38,960 and there will be standards for particular sort of schemes are voluntary schemes or regulated schemes. 307 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:44,060 The standards come in two parts. One is the amount of offsets you you have to buy in. 308 00:32:44,060 --> 00:32:51,170 The other is the quality of the offsets. You have to buy. I sort of talked about the amount of offsets already that that's quite hard to do. 309 00:32:51,170 --> 00:33:00,180 I mean, this is to as possible is the answer. We will find out with time that we actually need fewer than the time we have sold in the beginning. 310 00:33:00,180 --> 00:33:08,840 That's my prediction. In terms of the quality of the offset, this the important distinction between offsets such as to reduce emissions. 311 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:14,900 So energy efficiency offsets, for example, are also the fuel switching offsets. 312 00:33:14,900 --> 00:33:19,610 They make you call and they make your carbon neutral. They don't make you net zero. 313 00:33:19,610 --> 00:33:26,480 So we will have to move to offsets that genuinely remove carbon from the atmosphere, the way forestation or similar. 314 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:34,690 So net zero means the quality of the offset is top and removal of other countries emission reductions. 315 00:33:34,690 --> 00:33:42,550 And the other point to stress is that in the really big picture, we are, as I emphasised at the beginning. 316 00:33:42,550 --> 00:33:49,630 At some point we're going to need all our capacity to risk for biosphere restoration 317 00:33:49,630 --> 00:33:55,600 just to compensate for the carbon being released by global warming itself. 318 00:33:55,600 --> 00:34:01,120 So we can't afford to rely on the biosphere to mop up fossil carbon emissions forever, 319 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:05,410 which is why we need to be thinking about reducing those emissions as far as possible 320 00:34:05,410 --> 00:34:11,660 and investing in longer term storage solutions for the emissions that remain. 321 00:34:11,660 --> 00:34:17,690 Thank you, and that that leads us really nicely, actually, to a couple of other questions which proved popular. 322 00:34:17,690 --> 00:34:26,500 One is. I'm interested in the panel's views on the role of soil carbon based carbon sequestration as a means of reducing 323 00:34:26,500 --> 00:34:32,740 atmospheric APAs emissions or concentrations and the CO benefits I could bring to food production below stat, 324 00:34:32,740 --> 00:34:38,390 but also linked to that as a question from Bob Dogherty saying, what can we do in the food system to reach net zero emissions? 325 00:34:38,390 --> 00:34:44,410 Obviously soils critical parts of growing food. And and I guess that the role of food, 326 00:34:44,410 --> 00:34:51,100 the food system in reaching that theory can be both emissions reductions and soil carbon sequestration and other forms of sequestration. 327 00:34:51,100 --> 00:34:57,220 So perhaps some, given that you talked a bit about the roles of different sectors and different difficulties, you can talk about that. 328 00:34:57,220 --> 00:35:02,870 And then, Miles, you could talk a bit about storing carbon in soils specifically. 329 00:35:02,870 --> 00:35:09,490 Yeah, thanks for the question in LAND-USE. This is agriculture, certainly and hard to treat. 330 00:35:09,490 --> 00:35:18,160 Habitability also emissions, but it's partly in the hard to treat degree of emissions because we we happen in policy terms anyway. 331 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,230 We haven't tried very hard. 332 00:35:20,230 --> 00:35:30,520 It's it's quite striking that in the UK at least, there's been a lot of regulation on a lot of emissions in the agricultural sector. 333 00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:37,600 It was always voluntary like approaches and that you can you can sort of do more in the 334 00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:43,420 agricultural sector by actually applying the policy tools that we have applied somewhere else. 335 00:35:43,420 --> 00:35:51,730 I don't say that very often, but there is actually a potentially as of a Brexit benefit here in that that we have 336 00:35:51,730 --> 00:35:56,560 more degrees of freedom than we used to have on the Common Agricultural Policy. 337 00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:02,560 It is a difficult area because there are a lot of competing objectives around. 338 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,280 It isn't just about maximising carbon emissions. 339 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,570 You have to worry about animal welfare. You have to worry about food production. 340 00:36:10,570 --> 00:36:22,310 You have to worry about the natural environment. So this is genuinely an area where you have multiple objectives balanced. 341 00:36:22,310 --> 00:36:33,910 Yeah, I'm soil restoration is incredibly important. And clearly, this is one of the areas where there are opportunities in the short term. 342 00:36:33,910 --> 00:36:40,840 But again, it's important to keep an eye on the fact that I my understanding is the most important earth system. 343 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:47,410 Feedback is, in fact, increased respiration of bacteria in warming soils. 344 00:36:47,410 --> 00:36:51,340 So soils could be our friend in the short term, 345 00:36:51,340 --> 00:36:59,170 but we need to look after them for fear that the carbon contained in the world soils may be released into the atmosphere later in this century. 346 00:36:59,170 --> 00:37:07,120 So that I mean, actually, that makes it all more important to look after our soils and to look often much better than we've been doing so far. 347 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,240 But again, all of these carbon storage option, 348 00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:19,090 carbon storage needs to be a become a massive industry this century because it's it's clear that we are going 349 00:37:19,090 --> 00:37:25,390 to generate more carbon dioxide than we can afford to dump in the atmosphere and still meet our climate goals. 350 00:37:25,390 --> 00:37:31,030 So the really big question for the world in addressing climate change is what are we going to do with the rest of it? 351 00:37:31,030 --> 00:37:38,560 What are we going to do with the excess? Where are we going to store it safely so that it doesn't remain a burden for future generations? 352 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:43,630 Dumping it into the atmosphere is the worst option because that just imposes climate risks on future generations. 353 00:37:43,630 --> 00:37:48,340 We're gonna have to find alternatives. They all come with pluses and minuses. 354 00:37:48,340 --> 00:37:54,670 And that's a big part of Ocean Zero is weighing up those different options. How must you make a big claim there? 355 00:37:54,670 --> 00:38:00,610 You say it's clear that we're going to be using fossil fuels for longer than the time scale needed to get to net zero. 356 00:38:00,610 --> 00:38:04,360 And that might be a claim, actually, that some people might take issue with and say, 357 00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,060 well, actually, we we need to get rid of fossil fuels and we can do that. 358 00:38:07,060 --> 00:38:12,670 We must act quickly and have a not just a zero carbon world or a net zero Kanawa, but a fossil free world. 359 00:38:12,670 --> 00:38:21,310 So on what basis are you saying that it's clear to you that that we can carry on using fossil fuels beyond the point of net zero? 360 00:38:21,310 --> 00:38:30,460 Well, there's really only two alternatives. We either have to ban fossil fuels globally or we have to if we want to stop global warming, 361 00:38:30,460 --> 00:38:33,490 we have to either ban fossil fuels or decarbonise fossil fuels. 362 00:38:33,490 --> 00:38:40,060 We have to make sure that we fully compensate for the come down side released by continued use of fossil fuels. 363 00:38:40,060 --> 00:38:48,580 The idea that we might just wait for fossil fuels to become not uneconomic so that people just stop using them one day, that will happen. 364 00:38:48,580 --> 00:38:56,770 But it could be a very long time away. And I think it's quite a risk to to rely on people just moving on from using fossil fuels. 365 00:38:56,770 --> 00:39:04,900 So so if you're counting on absolute zero, so to speak, then you are counting on a ban now. 366 00:39:04,900 --> 00:39:13,560 A ban when we hear is important. If you're talking about we being, you know, wealthy people in rich countries, I mean, 367 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:22,420 it's perhaps realistic to talk about us and not just realistic, but perhaps ethically acceptable to talk about banning fossil fuels in the. 368 00:39:22,420 --> 00:39:30,520 Fossil fuel use. In the UK, for example, the Cambridge Zero reports from last year sort of set out just such a vision, 369 00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,400 but was also commendably clear on what that meant. 370 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:40,570 It meant no further radiation, no further shipping, no you know, a lot of things changing pretty dramatically, 371 00:39:40,570 --> 00:39:44,890 which a lot of people even within the UK might take exception to. 372 00:39:44,890 --> 00:39:52,750 But a much bigger picture question is, can we really talk about banning fossil fuels worldwide? 373 00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:56,380 I think that's that's a big stretch. And actually, you know, 374 00:39:56,380 --> 00:40:07,030 I think the important way of we need to accept the way we need to frame this problem is we need to decarbonise fossil fuels by, 375 00:40:07,030 --> 00:40:14,680 in effect, allowing the next generation kind's generation, if you like, the choice of whether they use them or not. 376 00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:22,870 If we if we don't develop the technologies to make sure that fossil fuels can be used without causing climate change, 377 00:40:22,870 --> 00:40:27,860 then we cut off that option entirely from the next generation. And that's really important. 378 00:40:27,860 --> 00:40:31,420 It's not up to us to decide whether the next generation uses fossil fuels or not. 379 00:40:31,420 --> 00:40:40,340 It's going to be up to them. But it is up to us to decide whether we invest in the technologies that will allow them to use fossil fuels safely. 380 00:40:40,340 --> 00:40:46,750 I'm sure a great parts of debate we can continue with, but I must move on because there are many other great questions. 381 00:40:46,750 --> 00:40:50,650 Actually, every Laslett Bently asked a linked question about food, saying, 382 00:40:50,650 --> 00:40:54,280 how do you see the food supply chain achieving its contribution to net zero? 383 00:40:54,280 --> 00:41:02,200 It's a great question and actually it raises the important point that emissions from food are not just from food growing itself. 384 00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:08,770 A great resource if you haven't come across it already from Oxford, called Our World and Data and that they've got a really good page pointing out 385 00:41:08,770 --> 00:41:13,210 that actually six percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are from food waste. 386 00:41:13,210 --> 00:41:17,020 And of course, they say it's not just the food we waste and the emissions from the food we grow. 387 00:41:17,020 --> 00:41:18,990 It already is how we transport them. 388 00:41:18,990 --> 00:41:28,330 Our aviation of sort of precious soft fruits in the middle of winter so that we can enjoy our mangoes or other fruits or blueberries. 389 00:41:28,330 --> 00:41:35,710 Those are all issues. But there's another good question as well from Edwards or E-Trade Whittingham, 390 00:41:35,710 --> 00:41:40,030 which is a really good question, I think, for the Oxford Net Zero initiative in general. 391 00:41:40,030 --> 00:41:44,390 What does the panel believe is the role of non STEM graduates in getting to zero emissions? 392 00:41:44,390 --> 00:41:47,740 So this really touches on. Is this just a science issue? 393 00:41:47,740 --> 00:41:51,640 We're deliberately trying to attack and attack it from multiple angles and multiple disciplines. 394 00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:56,220 So, Kyra, I'm sure you'd be keen to have a go at that one. Yeah, I am. 395 00:41:56,220 --> 00:42:04,120 I'm a social scientist, and I think it was very clear from the IPCC special one point five reports that I feel 396 00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,590 in some ways the physical scientists are handing the baton to us in that report to say, 397 00:42:08,590 --> 00:42:15,460 you know, we've done the hard stuff of trying to figure out some pathways. Here you go, communicate them and help drive the policies. 398 00:42:15,460 --> 00:42:23,410 And I think that in the past year, we've seen just the role of mass social movements to create the conditions, the political conditions. 399 00:42:23,410 --> 00:42:25,300 You're sort of walking through open doors now. 400 00:42:25,300 --> 00:42:30,700 If you use the word climate change, you know, getting into the nitty gritty details, there's going to still be debate. 401 00:42:30,700 --> 00:42:40,550 But that's where I think a lot of testing around what is going to become socially acceptable and what is necessary. 402 00:42:40,550 --> 00:42:44,260 There's still a gulf between what might be socially acceptable and what's necessary. 403 00:42:44,260 --> 00:42:54,370 So we need social scientists to be helping develop policies and and risk assessment and engagement strategies that help us close that gap. 404 00:42:54,370 --> 00:42:57,730 And then also, you know, there's a lot of changing behaviour that you saw. 405 00:42:57,730 --> 00:43:04,010 You saw the curve. There's a large curve around changing behaviour that we might not want to put all our eggs in that basket. 406 00:43:04,010 --> 00:43:08,840 But it's definitely something that's coming. So it's a wave and we're riding it. 407 00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:19,940 And we're also driving it. Right. Kind of reinforced up just slightly to provoke two gentlemen at the bottom of my screen, a little bit for me. 408 00:43:19,940 --> 00:43:30,640 The on STEM subjects discussed behavioural economics, the political skills at this point, probably more important than the sort of the science. 409 00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:37,300 Why do I say that? There's a lot of people out there who say, technologically, we know what we have to do. 410 00:43:37,300 --> 00:43:41,030 We have those blueprints. We know how one decolonised is an economy. 411 00:43:41,030 --> 00:43:48,580 What we haven't figured out is how one, get societies and political systems and economies to adopt them and to do that in a rational way. 412 00:43:48,580 --> 00:44:00,950 And that's a social science show. She likes the response to that mouse. 413 00:44:00,950 --> 00:44:07,140 I'm afraid I can't hear you. Maybe you're suffering from your Internet connexion again. 414 00:44:07,140 --> 00:44:11,030 No, no. I think it was, too. That's lie. On toggling at you. So thanks. 415 00:44:11,030 --> 00:44:14,510 Thanks. No, no, no. That's absolutely fair enough. 416 00:44:14,510 --> 00:44:22,040 And I, I broadly agree on that one. But I, I do want to stress one phrase that makes me feel uncomfortable. 417 00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:28,400 Which, of course was popularised by Grétar Thornburg. And it is very dangerous to criticise anything coming from Brett or Thornburg. 418 00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:33,530 But the phrase listen to the scientists worries me. 419 00:44:33,530 --> 00:44:40,940 And because nobody told me that I had a privileged position to tell the world what to do and there's no you know, 420 00:44:40,940 --> 00:44:52,730 so I think it is important that we and I think we've seen the dangers really over recent years in sort of technocratic. 421 00:44:52,730 --> 00:44:59,030 There is no alternative. You have to do it this way because that's what the scientists say approaches 422 00:44:59,030 --> 00:45:06,140 to solving problems ranging from the global financial crisis to coronavirus. 423 00:45:06,140 --> 00:45:10,690 I mean, you know, people objecting to lockdown's and mask wearing and saying, what are these scientists? 424 00:45:10,690 --> 00:45:19,940 No, no. Because and and so. So I think it is important that we maintain the dialogue and we're not suggesting science is done. 425 00:45:19,940 --> 00:45:25,880 You need to worry about it. Just, you know, read read the latest IPCC report and it will tell you what to do. 426 00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:33,320 Now, it's just a matter of persuading people to do it. I don't I, I don't think that will work. 427 00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:40,400 I think it's going to be it's going to be up to the scientists to engage with the public and understand what they want and what's driving them, 428 00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:50,100 particularly in different parts of the world. We live in a very, you know, or bubble in terms of Europeans. 429 00:45:50,100 --> 00:46:00,640 And here's where the coastal us, in terms of our priorities and a big part of ocean net zero is actually diversifying the conversation 430 00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:06,110 so that we're getting a broader range of perspectives and not just from other countries, 431 00:46:06,110 --> 00:46:12,860 but also from other strata of society in the U.K. who perhaps haven't really engaged with the environmental 432 00:46:12,860 --> 00:46:21,550 conversation so much up until now and who might be quite adversely affected by the wrong climate policies. 433 00:46:21,550 --> 00:46:25,850 Get climate policy right and everybody wins. But but get it wrong. And that will be major losers. 434 00:46:25,850 --> 00:46:30,900 And we need to be very careful of that. Yeah, I wholly agree on that. 435 00:46:30,900 --> 00:46:35,280 I think in terms of listening to science, I agree everyone should listen to the science, 436 00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:40,740 but and they can expect that to provide answers about what is but not necessarily what we ought to do about that. 437 00:46:40,740 --> 00:46:46,980 And that in in avoidably involves science plus values. So huge role for others there. 438 00:46:46,980 --> 00:46:51,390 And I think that links quite nicely to a question from John Matteis. 439 00:46:51,390 --> 00:46:58,620 Do you think that the inequitable access to resources across the globe will be a barrier to achieving net zero? 440 00:46:58,620 --> 00:47:03,450 Again, I might be a question you all have views on, but perhaps, Miles, 441 00:47:03,450 --> 00:47:09,060 I know that's something that we are hoping to address actually or broadly address this issue 442 00:47:09,060 --> 00:47:13,170 of different ways of perceiving and dealing with the net zero challenge and other possible. 443 00:47:13,170 --> 00:47:22,780 So do you want to kick off with that one? Yes, I think, you know, for example, I can't resist the plug. 444 00:47:22,780 --> 00:47:26,270 I was involved in the TED Countdown series. Please go and look at. 445 00:47:26,270 --> 00:47:30,950 Go to Ted dot, dot, dot, dot com, slash Moreau's Ellen if you want to see more. 446 00:47:30,950 --> 00:47:35,920 But Onlar there was one of the other from from Ruth Witchey. 447 00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:47,200 So one of the follow up talks to mine was, was her perspective representing an organisation that's all about energy access for Africa. 448 00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:55,840 And you know, they feel very strongly that Africa needs energy and fossil fuels are part of that energy 449 00:47:55,840 --> 00:48:02,440 mix that Africa needs to develop and we need to engage with with these conversations. 450 00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:07,000 And, you know, it's quite it's quite easy for us in some sense in the UK. 451 00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:12,910 One of my concerns actually is the net zero conversation in the UK is very UK focussed. 452 00:48:12,910 --> 00:48:18,250 We're all working out how to get the UK to net zero by 2050, which is fine. 453 00:48:18,250 --> 00:48:23,800 But if the rest of the world, if we're not helping the rest of the world do the same on a similar timescale, 454 00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:32,350 then we're not really solving the problem. So we need to we need to be looking at this broad, much broader range of perspectives and in particular, 455 00:48:32,350 --> 00:48:36,730 avoiding being judgemental, particularly given, you know, after we started this. 456 00:48:36,730 --> 00:48:40,630 So it should be up to us really to show the world the way out of it. 457 00:48:40,630 --> 00:48:47,110 Some of my point about the UK is 2050 targets are the UK has legislated. 458 00:48:47,110 --> 00:48:51,790 It's set in law. It's going to end to hit net zero by 2050. 459 00:48:51,790 --> 00:48:56,020 And you, of course, have direct experience because you are a member of the Committee on Climate Change. 460 00:48:56,020 --> 00:49:01,780 So you appointed independent expert advisers to actually really advise the government on what it should do. 461 00:49:01,780 --> 00:49:08,620 And it was the CCC whose advice actually that pretty led pretty directly to the legislation of his target and the 2050 date. 462 00:49:08,620 --> 00:49:13,780 Do you do you see that as overall a good thing and enough from the UK, 463 00:49:13,780 --> 00:49:20,660 given that there is this inequity across the world and capabilities and any responsibility for the problem? 464 00:49:20,660 --> 00:49:25,630 Yeah, I mean, the first thing to say is equity. The equity dimension is hugely important. 465 00:49:25,630 --> 00:49:34,660 Miles mentioned just as to the right of at least developed countries for modern forms of electricity, modern forms of energy, 466 00:49:34,660 --> 00:49:41,020 which has been a huge driver of development everywhere else, that that becomes the trust that is important. 467 00:49:41,020 --> 00:49:48,340 And we also have to worry about all those people that are worried about their jobs because they happen to be high carbon jobs. 468 00:49:48,340 --> 00:49:52,300 We have to help those people make the transition into new green jobs. 469 00:49:52,300 --> 00:49:56,880 So that's absolutely important. So that equity I mentioned is important. 470 00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:59,990 The question about the UK versus the rest of the world. 471 00:49:59,990 --> 00:50:10,210 And yeah, I think the UK has an obligation under self-interest to worry about global emissions, not just the UK emissions. 472 00:50:10,210 --> 00:50:19,600 How does one do that? Step number one is lead by example. And that's in the process of doing in terms of the legislative frameworks. 473 00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:23,590 We have not necessarily yet emphasised the actions we take. 474 00:50:23,590 --> 00:50:28,990 Leading by example is very important. The second point is sharing good practise. 475 00:50:28,990 --> 00:50:32,860 To the extent that we know what good practises in this country, we can share it. 476 00:50:32,860 --> 00:50:36,620 And the UK has done things like that as its Climate Change Act. 477 00:50:36,620 --> 00:50:46,640 So I've talked to other countries about good governance and then the desert dimension is this climate finance? 478 00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:54,550 There's an obligation under the Paris Agreement and number two UNFCCC to provide generous amounts of climate finance 479 00:50:54,550 --> 00:51:02,430 over above normal financial flows and to help other countries in that better organisation and in their resilience. 480 00:51:02,430 --> 00:51:10,090 The UK is it's not. But in that the UK has quite generous climate finance budget. 481 00:51:10,090 --> 00:51:15,400 One of the biggest in the world. And obviously the UK has also just talked its point. 482 00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:19,310 Seven percent of GDP talk on development date. 483 00:51:19,310 --> 00:51:25,450 So it's a bit of swings and roundabouts. But Thursday also means three things the UK could do. 484 00:51:25,450 --> 00:51:34,180 Steve, I'll jump in on this because I think that argument is only talked about in terms of net zero, in terms of climate in this one way, 485 00:51:34,180 --> 00:51:41,410 which is people worrying about just transition and people see fighting poverty against the ways we have to address climate change. 486 00:51:41,410 --> 00:51:49,240 And that's just not always true. You know, I said earlier, thirty five million jobs are being created by green solutions over the next 10 years. 487 00:51:49,240 --> 00:51:56,490 There's 10 times more green jobs in the US economy currently than there are fossil fuel industry jobs. 488 00:51:56,490 --> 00:52:04,300 And I think that there's so much that if we do this right, if we don't do this transition right, you know, we we can really prosper. 489 00:52:04,300 --> 00:52:09,190 And there's other concerns related to equity. Any time there's a shock to the system or a major transition. 490 00:52:09,190 --> 00:52:14,040 It's often the poorest people who sort of get left out of those communities discussions. 491 00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:18,380 And so, you know. It's not just about jobs, but it's also about land use. 492 00:52:18,380 --> 00:52:24,370 How we have to make sure that we're stipulating that in these policy transitions to net zero, we're doing community consultations. 493 00:52:24,370 --> 00:52:32,140 We're not just taking people's land away in order to to get there or if we are really doing it with a fair process. 494 00:52:32,140 --> 00:52:38,950 There's definitely concerns around equity when it when it comes to indigenous communities and the way that we're gonna have to use, 495 00:52:38,950 --> 00:52:41,020 you know, new mining materials to decarbonise. 496 00:52:41,020 --> 00:52:49,690 And I think these are all the kinds of questions that come into to the net zero discussion that I'm hoping our new equity fellow is considering. 497 00:52:49,690 --> 00:52:57,980 But I just wanted to point out that, you know, equity is sometimes posed opposite climate solutions and it just doesn't have to be. 498 00:52:57,980 --> 00:53:04,040 And I think we should keep that in mind. Climate solutions are not always a cost. 499 00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:07,550 Yes, we're past two o'clock, but I'm going to continue to ten past two. 500 00:53:07,550 --> 00:53:10,910 So those of you watching do feel free to stay until then, given our late start. 501 00:53:10,910 --> 00:53:15,290 And I'm going to therefore try and squeeze in two more of these excellent questions from the 502 00:53:15,290 --> 00:53:21,110 audience and then and then take chairman's prerogative to add to squeeze in a final one of mine. 503 00:53:21,110 --> 00:53:27,470 So Alice Ultimate asks, what is the most efficient nature based climate solution today? 504 00:53:27,470 --> 00:53:31,880 I guess you could measure efficiency in one of several ways. 505 00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:37,720 Does any of you want to tackle that one? 506 00:53:37,720 --> 00:53:46,180 By that, you really like to punted forward to Natalie, to the experts on major race climate solutions in our forthcoming Net Zero talk. 507 00:53:46,180 --> 00:53:49,300 I this there's one thing that I read a lot about at the moment. 508 00:53:49,300 --> 00:53:58,730 This is things like mangroves, which seem to have multiple benefits on climate resilience, on biodiversity, on emissions. 509 00:53:58,730 --> 00:54:05,000 But I'm sure Natalie will have many better examples. That's a great plug because that is the very next talk. 510 00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:06,070 MacSween Week, actually, 511 00:54:06,070 --> 00:54:13,570 I'll be in conversation with Professor Matt Saddam and Cecil Zero down in both who can be nature based solutions initiative here at Oxford. 512 00:54:13,570 --> 00:54:18,370 So stay tuned for that one. Ask your question again. Great question. 513 00:54:18,370 --> 00:54:27,370 So one more question. This is from Jim Smith. What gives you the most hope, given that a topic tends to be pretty scary? 514 00:54:27,370 --> 00:54:31,840 I don't know about you. This is something I find I'm asked quite a lot, actually, these days. 515 00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:38,660 So I am going to ask you some to get it out first and then Kyra and Miles. 516 00:54:38,660 --> 00:54:46,640 There's two things that give me hope. One is something I mentioned at the beginning of my talk, richest. 517 00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:53,490 Really broad consensus across all stopped our society in the financial sector, in the business sector, 518 00:54:53,490 --> 00:54:59,330 at local government, in the courts and amongst civil society that we have to do something. 519 00:54:59,330 --> 00:55:02,450 If you think that sort of the last general election, 520 00:55:02,450 --> 00:55:12,710 the slowest political party or at least ambitious political party on climate action in the UK was the Tories that they wanted to be next year by 2050. 521 00:55:12,710 --> 00:55:18,080 That's the slowest ambition that we have in society at the moment. That gives me hope. 522 00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:27,370 And the other thing that gives me hope is that the technological solutions to the ingenuity of reducing emissions, 523 00:55:27,370 --> 00:55:36,530 as is becoming increasingly available and increasingly cheaper renewables, batteries, electric cars, these things are starting to happen. 524 00:55:36,530 --> 00:55:40,450 So that gives me hope. But, yeah, it's not going to be easy. 525 00:55:40,450 --> 00:55:51,740 We should be clear about that. I get a lot of hope by just seeing almost how sometimes it's really hard, but sometimes it's really easy. 526 00:55:51,740 --> 00:55:56,180 And I think I said before, sometimes it really just takes people starting the conversation. 527 00:55:56,180 --> 00:56:02,630 And because we've had these environmental movements speaking up, because people are realising partly through the work of, you know, 528 00:56:02,630 --> 00:56:06,380 oxfords research on stranded assets or sort of the normalisation of this 529 00:56:06,380 --> 00:56:10,940 understanding that it is economically important to align with climate solutions. 530 00:56:10,940 --> 00:56:16,060 Sometimes you are pushing on open doors. And the more I push that, the more they open and respond. 531 00:56:16,060 --> 00:56:24,410 And so I just think staying active and, you know, racking your brain for people you could talk to to try to influence to join the race to zero, 532 00:56:24,410 --> 00:56:32,260 that that alone would bring you hope because, you know, it's the only way to ensure that we're doing everything that we can. 533 00:56:32,260 --> 00:56:39,030 Mauls. I think it's important to recognise how far and how fast we've already come. 534 00:56:39,030 --> 00:56:43,350 I mean, I first gave a talk on the need for net zero in 2005. 535 00:56:43,350 --> 00:56:50,160 I kind of know exactly when it was because it sort of a lot of people were puzzled by it at the time. 536 00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:55,830 I was talking at one of the UNEF Triple C meetings in 2012. The one in Doha. 537 00:56:55,830 --> 00:56:59,760 And again, presenting the fact that we're going to have to get to net zero emissions. 538 00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:07,080 And at that time, a lot of the participants, even in the U.N. of Triple C process were quite suspicious of this. 539 00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:12,980 You know, it's like, you know, really. Are you sure about that? Let's wait and see what the next IPCC assessment says. 540 00:57:12,980 --> 00:57:17,940 And that was, of course, the IPCC. If the assessment which came out the following year was extremely clear on 541 00:57:17,940 --> 00:57:21,690 this point that we needed to get to net zero emissions to stop global warming. 542 00:57:21,690 --> 00:57:30,690 And within, you know, a couple of years really from then this this this point was acknowledged in the Paris agreement. 543 00:57:30,690 --> 00:57:35,400 And it seems to be broadly accepted in every government, in every country around the world. 544 00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:43,440 So, you know, in a world where everybody is wringing their hands and worrying about what happened to truth, I mean, actually, that's pretty good. 545 00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:53,580 That's you know, that's pretty fast for a scientific a pretty uncomfortable scientific result to propagate through and and be accepted in policy. 546 00:57:53,580 --> 00:57:59,740 So, you know, that doesn't mean we've done it yet. But at least we've accepted what we need to do. 547 00:57:59,740 --> 00:58:03,490 Thank you. Three of you, since Myles plenteous Ted. 548 00:58:03,490 --> 00:58:05,890 I'm just going to plug that in the last week. 549 00:58:05,890 --> 00:58:10,930 Usborne published a book for Children, The Climate Crisis for Beginners, which I was involved in advising for. 550 00:58:10,930 --> 00:58:14,790 And I was really keen, actually, that it was a book that doesn't just give people the doom and gloom. 551 00:58:14,790 --> 00:58:19,090 It gives people hope, because I think that's important when speaking to children about this. 552 00:58:19,090 --> 00:58:23,290 But it was a real challenge. I think it's important. I hope that we've achieved it. 553 00:58:23,290 --> 00:58:26,830 Finishing on a hopeful note, it's not a false hope that everything's fine. 554 00:58:26,830 --> 00:58:32,010 I mean, we're committed to future changes. And a lot of those are really not going to be good changes. 555 00:58:32,010 --> 00:58:37,240 The idea that we do have some agency in this and that agency looks different and probably 556 00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:41,580 has a different overall size for how old we are and what our roles are in society. 557 00:58:41,580 --> 00:58:43,900 But but everyone can do something. 558 00:58:43,900 --> 00:58:49,660 And I think the fact that we're talking about net zero and kind of the stats on the number of people or at least aiming for it. 559 00:58:49,660 --> 00:58:57,160 And we have to see the action that is grounds for hope. Before we wrap up, I want to ask you one final question. 560 00:58:57,160 --> 00:59:02,440 I'd like the answers to be as brief as possible, even though it's completely unjustified by the question it's given. 561 00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:10,720 We're embarking on this New York's with net zero initiative. What do you see as the really big research question that needs to be tackled in 562 00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:17,680 order for us to achieve a global net effective and equitable net zero world? 563 00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:28,970 So, Miles, would you go first? Well, I think I keep coming back to it's gonna be all about storage of CO2, not. 564 00:59:28,970 --> 00:59:32,270 You know, the many forms of sources here, too. How are we going to manage it? 565 00:59:32,270 --> 00:59:38,330 How are we gonna look after it? Who's going to own it? This is this is the big problem. 566 00:59:38,330 --> 00:59:43,580 If we leave it in the atmosphere belongs to nobody. And it's everybody's problem. 567 00:59:43,580 --> 00:59:52,540 We've got to find other things to do with it. And, of course, generate a great deal less of a problem to start with. 568 00:59:52,540 --> 00:59:59,780 Some other Laski to tackle that one next. Yes, that answer and sort of have them quite direct questions on me. 569 00:59:59,780 --> 01:00:06,770 Why? What made me choying us next? You know, what excites me is two questions, really. 570 01:00:06,770 --> 01:00:12,050 One is what Minds has already said. How does one make sense of that need for next defamations? 571 01:00:12,050 --> 01:00:16,000 How do you make economic policy societal sense? Stop that. 572 01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:24,900 But then there's also the second part which we shouldn't forget. And how do we tackle that difficult emissions that still remains that the you know, 573 01:00:24,900 --> 01:00:28,730 the amount of negative emissions that we actually need is as low as possible. 574 01:00:28,730 --> 01:00:37,930 There's some fascinating economic science, technology, engineering, lico governance questions there as well. 575 01:00:37,930 --> 01:00:44,260 And, Kyra, it won't surprise you to hear that I'm I'm focussed on impacts, and so I think in the short term, 576 01:00:44,260 --> 01:00:47,530 the research questions that I have have to do with how do we ask the right 577 01:00:47,530 --> 01:00:51,880 questions of the right people as quickly as possible to get them to take action. 578 01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:53,260 But I think long term, 579 01:00:53,260 --> 01:01:02,520 my questions are around a post a post climate era in which we have actually developed in that Zeira transition that involves issues like, 580 01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:03,970 you know, equity questions. 581 01:01:03,970 --> 01:01:09,400 People often talk about climate change as if it's a cliff, that we eventually just fall off one day and then it's all over. 582 01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:15,700 The world goes black. But that's not what it looks like. It looks like a lot more suffering for a lot more people or less suffering. 583 01:01:15,700 --> 01:01:20,440 And how can we use our opportunity that we have in these transitions to maybe create 584 01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:26,140 more distributed power to to give people more opportunities through education, 585 01:01:26,140 --> 01:01:32,890 all the kind of co benefits that come along with the climate crisis, which is a lot to handle all in one. 586 01:01:32,890 --> 01:01:39,210 And I look forward to seeing how all of our postdocs that we're bringing in help to answer those questions. 587 01:01:39,210 --> 01:01:48,330 Plenty to say, so thank you very much to two, the three people who've join me in conversation today, Myles Allen, Sam Fankhauser and Kyle Axelsson. 588 01:01:48,330 --> 01:01:51,630 And thank you to all of you for for participating online as well. 589 01:01:51,630 --> 01:01:55,710 I'm very sorry that we didn't get the chance to cover all your questions. 590 01:01:55,710 --> 01:02:00,150 But fear not, because this is the first in the series running throughout the term. 591 01:02:00,150 --> 01:02:03,600 And we'll be touching on a lot of the topics you're asking questions on. 592 01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:12,540 So the role of nature in achieving that zero different elements of energy system and energy vectors and also the roles of laws and societies, 593 01:02:12,540 --> 01:02:18,150 not just in the U.K. but around the world in very different situations. So do join us if you can. 594 01:02:18,150 --> 01:02:23,550 Next Monday, we'll be discussing the value and limits of working with nature to address climate change. 595 01:02:23,550 --> 01:02:28,370 And that will be with Professor Matsakis. Dr. Cecile, you're done here at Oxford. 596 01:02:28,370 --> 01:02:34,200 So it's a register. Click the green button under the video screen. And in the meantime, have a very good week for all of us. 597 01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:40,143 Goodbye.