Thank you for. Possibility the present of what is preservation will come back.
Last time I was talking it was February I think allowance or something like a February.
I was talking about reflection, reflective emphasis within the.
But after a couple weeks after that, there's intention lots of changes in Ukraine, Crimea and in our region.
And well now I'm presenting a bit different presentation where I have to be more positive about the field.
And of course it's probably not critical, but we'll see how to proceed because after all we have to prepare for defence of maybe Russian attack
maybe we'll see are able broke through several broken broke break to rule some in this presentation.
One is I don't like to give a slides, but I decided maybe to show some slides before because some numbers budget and force the size maybe better to
see in the slides than to listen me because it's visual visualising is better one and the second one is small.
I don't like to be how to say to play a politics,
but the title is a little bit pull it politicised because I would guess that even here in the United Kingdom and in Western countries,
there are people who think that there is no Russian-Ukrainian words freedom crisis, Crimea crisis, or I would call it in Lithuania.
It's plain, simple. It's a Russian war against the great. But that's all where I use political, let's say, some questions, etc. After that,
I will try to be as much as possible objective and talk about numbers, about situations, about facts.
But and that also reflects, let's say, mentality of Baltic states.
Because when Western countries are using, as I said, crisis management limited the war or something like that,
it's sometimes perceived in our region like a defeat of some countries to soft position against Russia.
And we are more harder position, more troops on the ground, more American troops in Baltic states, permanent bases, etc., etc.
And well, we probably now that it's not sometimes so easy to do that.
And Britain, America, Germany has maybe a much wider interpretation what has happened in Ukraine and Baltic states.
Okay, so let's try to proceed so that first some geography,
it will be maybe important in the understand so Baltic states so simple question is imagine how you have to defend if you are,
let's say Germany, Poland or Norway, you have to send troops.
The Baltic states only with 60 kilometres links between Lithuania in Poland is
direct land link with other NATO countries and that is between district and below.
So in our military planners are saying if some if there will be some attack,
you just very easily may attack this position and disconnects Lithuania and Baltic
states from the Poland and the only way is by sea or air to reach our countries.
And so Marva is important, 82% of population that is Russian.
So if you talk about Crimea and scenario in Baltic states that probably the most often city which is named
where is this scenario might be again done because 82% is a lot this local is it's around 70% Latvian cities,
around 70% of Russian living in that city.
And again, this border town, Lithuania, is more like it in this sense.
You see some numbers. We have real, really smaller numbers of Russian minorities.
So in our case, it's a bit different, but we have more broader challenge from Canada as our country.
So some numbers and we will go. So we see numbers are a little bit astonishing.
Lithuanians managed to have small minority and that is, I would say, one of the positive legacy of our Lithuanian Communist Party,
because it was a rational decision by a living communists in the late fifties
not to give permission for Russians to enter the scene or limit the numbers.
That was different with Astana and Latvia.
And now we all the countries are paying the price, are reaping the benefits of that decisions made in Soviet times.
You can see the population size of all countries. Lithuania numbers are, I would say is in some kind of flux.
All official data saying that let's see that in Lithuania we have three and a half million people.
Why I put this number?
Because there's around 300,000 Lithuanians who are living in Norway, Ireland, Great Britain, United States, Germany at this moment.
So very big migration. Estonia, not so much.
Latvia also has a lot of immigration, lots of Latvian. So. Living in Western European European Union countries, especially Britain.
English. So this Russian immigration was put forward? Yes.
Possible for true. Well, the Russians. Lithuania were lucky also in this sense, because the Russian Khrushchev, he was so generous.
He was he gave away Crimea to Ukraine.
And he was proposing for the Communist Party to to take our district and to unite as Lithuanians.
They said, well, you know, we don't want that.
Keep it to yourself. I would say from looking from this perspective,
it was a wise decision because otherwise we will have a bigger territory with very big Russian minority, probably the biggest in that region.
So and then so the problem is, again, this capital.
So in Vilnius, it's only 15%, but Riga 50%.
So if you will be in Riga, probably you will hear more often the Russian language and Latin language.
But in the streets. In taxi drivers. On public transport. Tallinn 30% and is decreasing.
So I think the biggest challenges Latvia still is Latvia numbers are going down.
I think it was in nineties, it was around 32% of Russian minority in Latvia.
So some of them went then back to Russia. Some of them just decided to be enlightened citizens and to see to to take a new identity.
But still, the big number is. So. So when we talking about little green man scenario and mind, let's say especially Crimea case,
there is some worries in Baltic states, especially in Latvia, that might happen in Lithuania.
We have different challenge. We have 11% minority of Polish people and then we say within in Poland, strategic partners, yes and no.
Taking granted our difficult historical past.
We have a big tensions is Polish minorities, especially Lithuanian, Polish, Polish, Polish parties playing some unconventional political games.
And it's clear that in some ways is financed by Russians.
At least 30% of all budget of this part is paid by Russian embassy in Lithuania.
So if we don't have Russian minority,
so we have Polish minority which is used by Russians and that minority lives around capital area and around the border region with Belarus.
So again, if you talk about secrets concealed movement of troops from Belarus to Vilnius,
Lithuania territory, that region where public knowledge is living again, some had to exist.
Okay, so that is number about population.
And overall, we may see that it's around six and a half million people living in all three countries altogether.
So. Not very big ones.
Now, armed forces are numbers are difficult again.
Actually, I have to say and I was checking military balance and all the Internet sites.
So let's see what you can find is the newest edition of Military Balance is totally different from what a Minister of Defence are putting on site.
So the question is who am I have to trust I'm looking for,
I know exactly what the final number because they are playing the Putin live in minister
defence site let's say and so again so regular forces in Lithuania 7800 in Latvia,
5000 in Estonia. Also the 5000.
Estonia 3800. Volunteer force, number one, what they have in mind.
We have we don't have conscription. Conscription was ended in 2008,
but we have the so-called basic training course where younger people may voluntarily come to have a tactical training exercises for three months,
and after that, they may go away and enter again civilian life or go to regular forces.
So that number in one year,
we are training around 1000 volunteer younger people and that is something the numbers of our conscription in 2005 for free.
So we don't have a conscription, but the same number of people are coming voluntarily to have a basic tactical training.
We have active reserve that is volunteers will volunteer. So number is not very big one 4000 we have as the rifle men union about seven.
So that is paramilitary organisation. Oh, half of that organisation is youth.
Under ages. So and there's now a big debate.
Should we train them to use a weapon or not? Because you have.
Then we have a 15 year old guy maybe training to use a serious military weapon and the big debate.
But Russia's challenge may create such kind of conditions that we would start training even maybe children or schoolchildren.
Senior classes use weapons so that we still we have some political debates.
And within about that. Latvia National Guard, something like active reserve plus paramilitary organisation.
So we have 10,000 regular forces, 5000. And Estonia has conscription, Latvia doesn't.
So that is a big difference between all three Baltic states.
And they have this volunteer defence league, which is also of in some way paramilitary organisation.
Big numbers, 15,000.
So overall, you can see that the plan is in Lithuania to increase irregular forces in up centre 22,020 to have around 11,000 to regular forces.
From now on, such numbers are planned if we will have enough funding and will to find the money.
Astana is planning to expand the military up to 1000,
up to 6000 regular forces and Astana is planning to have two operational brigades of land forces.
That means to say they have almost double that number.
And again, everything is planned up to 2020. So we will see how to proceed at least this year.
Estonia expanded by 300 people and regular forces left and expanded by 200.
So it's maybe small numbers, but they say that is additional.
Money was found to recruit 200 people to give up weapons, equipment, everything.
And next year will be higher numbers. But we'll see how we proceed.
But I would say the average is around 15,000 right now.
All now people under the arms, which may be called to in, I don't know, in one week or two weeks, we have a bigger reserve.
See people who served in the army, living an army,
all the thing that in Estonian there are some people still who have experience from Soviet times military service.
So it's a bigger pool.
But the question is, at least in Lithuania, we don't have enough weapons to supply all those people who may come in numbers, big numbers.
But you have maybe 20,000 volunteers to do something.
But you don't have equipment, you don't have nothing. So what is it? Why do you need such kind of numbers if you don't know how to use it?
But so so you can imagine.
Now, what about size, population and force the size we're talking about and compare with your own countries and compare with Russia, for example.
And where Russia has I know statistics is around 900,000 overall soldiers in the armed forces.
So it's comparable. So NATO's is essentially without NATO's even not on strategical level, but operational.
So let's say when that is states send it now keeps up in each country, our company of infantry, around 150 soldiers in each country.
That's a lot. Then you look in the numbers of our armed forces.
Because I would say at least what lieutenant military is saying when the Americans are training these Lithuanians,
one American company is one Lithuanian battalion and skills, equipment, etc. So they meet, train a lot.
Our soldiers know how to fight special tactical level decisions.
So it seems maybe minor decisions buy from United States.
Then you're looking from the Baltic states perspective. They're not so minor.
One good company, American soldiers. It makes a difference, actually.
And when also Hungary is sending one company in Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and you have well,
finish planning next year to have around 400 foreign soldiers serving within it for exercises, for training.
And lots of them started to be smaller numbers and to be as understand all Americans and some.
Maybe Germany will send some soldiers, which will be at least around 200.
Soldiers in both of these countries. So it's still quite a lot.
No. And the last slide was numbers. That is finance.
Not very nice, at least. First two, because Estonia is playing by the rules.
One of the few countries in Natal who have has 2% of GDP of budget.
And you may see the exact number of that number numbers in euros, what kind of.
But it is Lithuania was under two, I have to say.
But it's changing very rapidly and fast because next year we will have we expand our defence budget by one third compared with this year.
So it's a huge input of money and the plan is to keep on going up 2020.
Now again, Lithuania, Latvia, it was made a political decision signed by all political parties,
an agreement that up till 2020 both countries who have defence budget of equal will be equal to 2% of GDP at least next year.
This is a decision. It will be fulfilled step by step.
So let's say in 2016, within a military budget will be around €450 million and it will be expensive.
Enterprise will be enough political will to keep that promise.
I have some serious doubts, especially if Russia will stop, be after, say, overtly aggressive in Ukraine,
because then you have less tensions and you have less of debates in both in the states,
in the media and pulled in say, well, nobody cares about what is happening.
Ukraine because Russia is not playing is not any more aggressive, let's say that.
So in some ways, thank God for Russia's open,
aggressive aggression in eastern Ukraine because it keeps on going and it keeps
the debate and within and block in Estonia to keep pressure on our defence budget,
on our militaries, to expand, to have a better quality, to buy better the better equipment.
Well, Latvia also so again, you may see the numbers.
Numbers are more or less similar. It's around €400 million.
Right now, the budget is flat. So you may compare this again with your own defence budget and ask yourselves what you can do with such kind of money.
Having in mind to say the size of forces is probably the biggest question is what kind
of equipment and weaponry you mean by having such money because and all countries
are following the rules of NATO's no more than 50% of personnel that will be kept
under consideration and assume that all three countries are playing by the rules here.
So it means that at least Lithuania is planning to spend about one world, 54 to 9% for personnel and 30% for equipment and weaponry.
So we'll see. So that is numbers.
Only maybe we'll leave the map because we will really discuss what I wanted to speak more about it.
So I will talk like a military doctrine. Planning is physical, moral and conceptual level.
So I talk a little bit about physical components.
So the biggest question is in now in the countries what to do with the size of armed forces that are too small.
For example, Latvia, right now, they have 5000 irregular forces, but they have ten battalions.
Can we have proper managed manned battalions with 5000 people?
My I don't think so, because that means that we have a shortage of people like in Lithuania.
To some battalions, he has only 30% of feelings of battalion capacity.
We need more people. The question is how to get it, recruit them, provide a better salary, all come back to conscription.
That is one big debate now in living in Latvia, especially in Lithuania.
Maybe it's time again to bring back conscription. And swell and try to.
But again, political questions really have exceptions.
What kind of exceptions will students be accepted? They won't go to military.
If you don't send students, then you don't have a 50% off rolling of colour.
That means that you have a waste of conscription and you have social inequality,
etc. All these questions are coming back and there's no you have this.
We have presidential elections, municipal elections, parliamentary elections.
And politicians are very careful by playing that, because if you lose a voice mandate of youth, you won't be elected.
And conscription is that is a question of the younger generation.
And there's a big debate. Will the younger generation go to military if they will be conscripted because numbers are showing that every are moving?
At least 1000 younger people are keen to go to military no more.
But 1000 is not enough having in mind again within a minute.
So but because the thing is made them up and work is for me for them that we have
every rotation is of 500 people are leaving military 500 are entering military.
Some people are retiring. Find new jobs. So let's say if we want to increase our armed forces, we need much more than 1000.
Can we deliver or have to do we have to look for another way so that this conscription very, very big debate tends debate.
Another one is volunteers and paramilitary.
Again, if you want to have a more paramilitary organisations, what whether all useful paramilitary organisations do, they must have weapons or not.
Should we train children schools to use weapons or not?
Should we establish military training exercises in schools?
Like in Soviet times? I was born in Soviet times. I remember being in first grade during the physical exercise.
I was trained to drop artificial grenade from seven years old.
We were trained to be a soldier. One day I was lucky within and became independent.
I haven't used that school and I hope I won't never use that skill.
I still remember how to do that. So now in some way we are coming back to this question.
Should we bring such kind of training into the schools, especially senior classes, not youngsters,
but let's say guys, especially guys six and seven year old Estonia are not doing that in school.
They are using the same school. That teaching is not to say civic duty as teaching history,
etc. And they if you want to have a better training, you belong to this foreign organisation in Lithuania.
We saying that it's not enough.
In Parameterisation we should go to the schools and teach about military history, encourage our morale but also provide some skills.
Latvia is the same. So I was talking with the rub.
So it's question for you. Now imagine because of Russia's aggression, we're trying to be more prepared to fight back Russia.
We are increasing our training and morale,
especially expansion of encouraging of morale by teaching younger generation how to fight wars and even training to use military weapons.
It's is a challenge. And when we became more militaristic nations.
And that is by definition Russia.
Do you that voice propaganda information or worse and that they will be showing it for British American people and in TV shows and saying,
look, this fascist militaristic Baltic states are preparing and they're not democratic states anymore.
How British people will perceive Baltic states. Are we still members of the democratic countries, family or not?
I was too willing to help us or not because that is a big debate, philosophical debate about national security versus democracy.
Where to find this fine line and little thing in some cases, I would say we there are some proposals which are not so much democratic.
And I hope that one,
they won't be became a policy because then Russia will really have lots of material for its propaganda and for domestic and foreign.
But that is a challenge. Another one is a big debate about special forces.
That is to say, because we're small, we don't have a big army.
Maybe let's invest in special forces. All three Baltic states have their own special forces on Lithuania has special forces.
Independent military service is a fourth military service.
I think it's only Poland has the same and that's only two countries in the world.
We can say alongside land, air and Navy and Special Forces, a separate service, not some kind of operation, but that's all separate and autonomy.
And there's lots of legends about Lithuanian, Polish for Latin and Stalin and Special Forces working with the British and Americans in Afghanistan.
How we are brave, how we have good ones, etc., etc. I don't know.
Maybe you may tell more because when you're sitting in Lithuania you kinda came
to like this kind of stories that you have a really good soldier as a good ones.
I don't know. It's probably British and Americans may say more objectively about that, but the solution is simple.
It's the thing. Just expand our special forces. If they're so good, let's have more good soldiers.
Because even if you look in the Crimea in scenario area, it's not conventional forces fighting, it's small paramilitary special forces fighting.
So you need more special forces buy more better equipment, better training.
And you may have a small armed forces, but if there will be more Special Forces style, that means that, say, smaller numbers, big in quality.
Is it possible to deliver that? I don't know.
And what I'm looking and reading that say, following what is happening with some countries, I don't see that is the right decision if it will be made.
Special Forces are special forces because they are small. You cannot have special forces on massive scale, at least for all countries.
And that costs a lot of money, a physical component.
Also, what is changing? There was changes in laws in Lithuania and Estonia.
We have to say we changed our laws accordingly to Ukrainian situation that if we will have a green,
little, little green men situation, that we could use armed forces in two or 3 hours.
So that means in Lithuania, for example, if we have information that it might be something like in Crimea,
our president may sign the document which will allow military forces to take on the control of particular region and do police work,
border control work and the fighting, if it's necessary. Kind of military rule or military law in that particular era.
Estonians are more clarifying, let's say, the infrastructure and political structure who'll be in charge if everything happens,
so to say to increasing power of prime minister? Very much, actually.
Also in Lithuania, we have we decided to have a rapid, rapid reaction forces to battlegroups each 800 people,
which may be reacts from 2 to 24 hours duration in any place in the fairness.
So Special Forces Unit must be in any place in Lithuania in 2 hours time if something happens.
Other disaggregated units in 24 hour, 24 hours at the latest, and it's already on the move from 1st of November.
But that is a sad story because what does it mean at least in the that we manage only to have fully manned to battlegroups.
That is how much we have equipment weaponry because we don't have we don't have the threat battle group.
We don't have enough people and we don't have enough weaponry to have the third battle group, which could react in 24 hours.
So in some ways, we put everything what we have and we are preparing to use this force and we have all lost accordingly.
But on the other hand, that's all what we have at this moment.
Well, we have we have Special Forces, one unit serving in Afghanistan.
One unit is preparing for certain young guys. And so we may add up maybe another 100 soldiers.
That's all. So that is a situation within and Lithuania is a bigger Lithuania has a bigger regular forces in the form for all three Baltic states.
So you can ask yourself, what is the Latvian Estonian situation?
Latvians are the worst because they don't have enough people and they don't have enough equipment.
Estonians maybe don't have enough people, but they have kind of good equipment and weaponry because they they have a lot of money
and they're spending kind of wisely and buying a new stuff like javelin stingers.
We have, too. But for example, Estonians, they have a bigger stockpile of javelin, for example, than Lithuanians.
So. So that is also a challenge in enlisting ends on a silver lining for the last year we have I don't know I just stopped counting.
But around ten big training exercises, international ones, Americans, British, Germans, Denmark, Germany.
I think now we have a year policing the planes from Portugal, Canada, Belgium, Poland.
So Natal is sending a lot of people for athletes for training.
And for the next year or so we'll have a lot of training actually.
So it's in this case at least, our skills for soldiers are improved, improve very much right now in Lithuania and all the Baltic states, for example.
So they're training with the American company and that companies are having their own striker.
So to see Lithuanian soldiers can touch a real striker and do a tactical exercises
in training because Americans and strikers and it's paid by American government.
That's important, actually, when you start calculating on the costs.
And yesterday, Americans, they confirmed that Americans will remain on the rotational basis in Baltic states,
at least for the next year, all the year, maybe even 2016.
It's it'll depend probably how everything will be happening in Ukraine.
Another big task for Baltic states is because we are small, we don't have enough.
People will need the help, we will be attacked. So some our allies will coming in many different ways.
We have must have our infrastructure for. The host nation support facilities.
Railway lines, port facilities, airports, bases, barracks, ammunition, arsenal, everything.
So in the next two years there will be just big constructions and buildings in all three Baltic states.
They are happening right now actually.
So for example, Lithuania. So you can imagine we have military bases all over the place, but our capital doesn't have almost nine soldiers.
Military academy. And during all these years, we didn't have enough money or political will to build up somewhere here a military base,
because Belarus is not a question of what is its role and its connections to Russia.
So it was decided from next year to build a big military base not far away from the capital.
And that it would be the first Lithuanian original Lithuanian military base because all the other ones are from Soviet times.
Even the buildings are still built by Soviets. And we just make some cosmetic there.
Construction that was this way. So. So for the next year, a couple of years, we will be spending a lot of money for host nation supports.
So it's not mere defence intensive weaponry, but more let's say more buildings, more better roads, more railway lines, etc., etc., etc.
Equipment, anti-tank weapons, antiaircraft weapons all through the countryside.
Buying or will buy very soon are armoured personnel carriers.
Estonians already buying. Latvians have an agreement with British company or with British something.
Operation Lafiya is have to make a decision next April.
And for example, within is as big question big debate because we are planning to spend in Lithuania money of 1 billion litres that is
around three €350 million actually that is to this year's annual budget of defence we want to spend for the vehicles.
So lots of money, lots of decisions, lots of questions about possible corruption.
Do we need at all? That's a conceptual question. What we will do with this armoured personnel carriers?
What is the necessity to have such kind of equipment?
Maybe. Let's buy more javelins and stingers. Maybe invest into special forces.
Or maybe buy some helicopters. For our Special Forces again, do we need this kind of care?
That is conceptual question sexual. And the problem is that the Minister of Defence and the Armed Forces sometimes are not capable to answer.
Why do we need such kind of equipment? What is the attitude?
They start discussing about tracks and wheels, about calibre and some old technical stuff, but no conceptual questions.
Let's say you will have a conscription conscripts. How?
We will connect and unite. Consequences new vis a vis new equipment.
Can we train conscript soldiers to use this new personal care and do it as such coercion at all?
Do we see everything in holistic terms or just we buying different platforms but not seeing to see how they will all unite?
That is the question. Estonians are the best ones in this because they spend a lot of money trying to understand how to say.
And in this conceptual level, Latvian Estonians a logical difference.
And Latvians are worse on that. We still have problems with conceptualising some issues.
Okay, maybe going to more moral components. So political will, at least for now, there is political will in all of the Baltic states.
There were signed agreements, as I said, to increase budgeting.
And that is happening in real terms in Lithuania.
We increased even this year by €40 million from extra from our budget just to buy new equipment even this year.
Next year will be more expensive. I feel so Estonians like just keep on going to keeping this 2% level.
So we have a political will, but at least in Lithuanian case, I think a couple of years until it will disappear.
Unless our president, which is a very strong leader,
May said some angry words towards parliament and government and is forced to keep increasing because already we have discussions in Lithuania.
So who will pay for the studies education? Who will pay for social services?
Who will pay for health security? If we spending for the defence is it Russia?
So really big threat for us. That is really dangerous question.
Also the question of the societies. So that is very important about informational worth, very simple question,
asking all three Baltic states in the media if Russia will attack us, how fast NATO's will send its forces to our help.
One day, two days, three weeks. It might be a technical question, but also it's very political question.
If you see that Nader will send forces in three days or maybe a week.
So the answer goes next month. So what the point to be made, though, because in three days we all are occupied.
I all debt. So maybe it's not so good to be in.
That is a Russian informational war in Baltic states.
Constant message in media outlets. And you have to fight back and you have to bring conviction from NATO's headquarters, etc.
We have contingency planning. We doing training.
Everything is prepared. Everything is arranged. Don't be afraid. If there if what comes to worst?
Germany, Poland and Norway, probably the first ones will come later on.
Other countries will follow. But who knows?
So the question of this morale of society is a big question.
And the question is, again, if there will be occupation or some parts will be occupied.
What about the resistance? Should we train our societies?
To be capable to make a resistance. Passive resistance and active resistance.
Should you train that survival skills for the for people in Lithuania, for example?
My generation, I didn't serve the military and I'm too old to serve in the military.
So a younger generation, me maybe will go to military. We are conscription.
The older generation have skills from Soviet times. What about my generation?
How we will get skills to fight? Should we? Should government spend some money for training civilians?
Why not in. Not in volunteer forces, not in paramilitary force.
But I see some survival skills training. Should we do that or not?
If yes, who will pay for that? How much money we need? Again, is it worth it?
Is it not too militaristic? The same questions are asked in other two Baltic states.
Estonians are again more. I say Estonians very consistently because they always work concentrated on territorial defence.
They are more focussed on this civilian education of military skills.
Latvia and Estonia didn't spend a lot of money doing that.
And now we have a gap and we have a professional armed forces with some kind of small volunteer forces.
The rest of society does not know how to survive, let's say, in a forest or in the city without electricity.
Without credit cards. Maybe we all, all of us must have some cash at home just in case if everything went down.
So again, so that is a question. And that goes to another big question about conceptual level.
How what is the best way to defend? So in Estonia is having territorial defence reception and understanding.
Latvia and Lithuania war was more on expeditionary forces and they changed their military accordingly in 2005, 2006.
Now what we are debating that the best problem away will be fight back, Russian attack.
It will happen in the cities or urban warfare training.
But then you have a discussion bigger. So if we will fight back in our cities, what about the rest of the thing?
You know, a lot of Estonia, what cities? You can defend everyone.
So some of these probably areas will be left and permitted to be occupied.
That a political question because politicians there must now explain for people maybe that is my native town that is 50 kilometres from Canberra.
So. Looking into history. My town always was occupied in the first hours of.
First of all, war is Second World War. It's Napoleonic wars when they were entering.
So basically, if Russia decide to attack, this town is gone, it's occupied.
So you have to tell people living in that town that, you know, you must prepare to live under the Russian occupation,
maybe for one day, maybe for two days, while nature will come, while we fight back.
How to live. How to behave. Should be more active resistance or passive resistance.
And is it politically correct to say that you will be left alone because we have to concentrate on strategic areas?
Now, of course, because they are small ones and we are to fight in the cities is better because to fight in cities
is you are winning time because it's not easy so easily to defeat the enemy in the urban area.
And maybe if you need a one day or two, let's see, that is how you're buying time.
Paul And because we have a history of active resistance against Soviet regime in the late forties,
early fifties, we have another tradition we call this forest tradition.
There's active resistance everywhere, ambushes, IEDs, whatever you want.
And you have to train this population.
Population must know how to fight active resistance insurgents.
That's in the now more familiar territory. So let's say we have two different interpretations and separate city versus forest, as we call it.
Which way is best? What's what kind of equipment to buy?
Uh, and also that is only our region, but we are native.
Native has a global perspective. If you want to be a good number of Nathan, you must see our forces, which we could be capable sent to out of now.
Syria, Libya, Mali, western Iraq or wherever else.
So how you find the balance between expedition capabilities and multilateral territorial capabilities,
what you will see will be sent away from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, who will remain inside.
What is the balance? 90% to ten 5050.
Expedition expeditionary level. And that is a problem, conceptual problem in political,
political and within that are politicians and some key players are tending to ignore with global perspective.
Natal It seems that NATO's now concerned with the Russia and Ukraine as they keen to forget and ignore that,
saying that NATO has also some some other issues on agenda and when they ignoring that they are not investing
time and money and discussions into preparing some capabilities for global participation of NATO's activities,
and that may have some challenges because all countries are planning to send there are only 100 soldiers to an expedition outside their own countries.
That's all. It's a small number, actually.
One company, you may say. So that is our input into global natal agenda.
And we would like that natal will send everything into our countries, not vice versa.
And also there is another conceptual challenges.
I was talking in the fab saying the thing that we don't have a very good tradition of theoretical, conceptual reflection on our military force,
and I would say civil and sanitary, good at, let's say, studying, reading about military theories, military practice and discuss openly.
Like in Britain, like, like we don't have such kind of seminars.
It's difficult to have. And life isn't a science.
They are good ones. They have for the last seven years a think tank which is working only on defence policy.
Question Latvians in Lithuania doesn't have any of such.
So we don't have a tradition of talking. So let's say when I came back from Oxford,
so we managed to start tradition and Minister of Defence to have a Chatham House rules based discussions between officers,
politicians, experts and media. So next week we will have the third one.
And it's fruitful because for the first time you will see each other in one place and you're training and
you're teaching special military to be more transparent because what happened after the Ukrainian crisis?
Lt people became very interested in military issues.
So for example, if you decide to buy armoured personnel carriers they will thought that will be just inside the military.
The question solved now societies started asking questions. Why?
Why so expensive? What kind of company and military was caught on guard?
Oh, my God. Why are you asking this question? Just operational military stuff.
No, no, no. People said that is taxpayer money.
We would like to get some answers and we saying that the best way to fight back Russians is another way.
So let's say we have a lot of now experts in military,
former Soviet time officers and people by training in Soviet times or some would say people who were living in Ukraine,
United States during Soviet times, they have now they'll have a lot of expertise in saying, no, no, no, the best way is to fight this war.
So let's say we have this now kind of discussion about military issues, open, transparent,
but we have such men advise so many advisors and so radical advisors that sometimes it's difficult to sort it out what is best for us.
But at least military is forced to be how to say more open, transparent, and military is first.
And they now understand that this it's different ages now.
Strategic level and even operational level.
These questions will be discussed openly in society and military will be asked questions and military will be asked to provide answers.
You cannot say that is top secret and I can say no.
If you bring back conscription, if you are buying expensive equipment, you have to explain to society and society will demand.
Media is furious when they. There are no answers.
And we learning quite, quite fast, for example, very good example is Russia's challenges in the air space.
Yes. You already hear about this air policing that is increasing in numbers every day almost.
Russia is checking our borders. So it happened a couple of weeks ago.
We find out that it's not Russian planes entering the Lithuanian airspace,
but we find out that from Canadian media outlets because Canadians are now deployed
in Lithuania and we started asking our military why we know about it from Canadians,
why we don't know from our own Minister of Defence and that it was some small scandal and now it's very wise decision.
Every Monday, Minister of Defence publishes a summary of the weekly events and challenges of Russia in airspace.
So every Monday me check how many times the Russians were around our Lithuanian, Latin, Estonian borders,
how many times air policing was activated and planes were sent into the air to check Russian planes that was transparent,
that didn't that wasn't two weeks ago. Our commander in chief has its own Facebook site, which is Google, actually.
And there is a lot of good information.
But again, it was created only in September and if not Ukrainian events, I would say that this wouldn't happen.
So overall, oh, in the last one, the big debate and I have some questions about it,
maybe you answer for me the biggest trend and six, a topic now in all Baltic states is a hybrid warfare,
how to fight the hybrid warfare, what is it and etc. and I think it's too much fetishism in this war is put in and nature is using that.
But those I think it's it's became a buzzword which didn't explain nothing but everybody is using now.
Everybody knows hybrid warfare and everybody is kind of experts in hybrid warfare because everybody knows little green man in Crimea.
And they imagine that that that if something will happen, it will be like in Crimea.
And that is hybrid warfare. And I think it's to reduce perspective, to narrow perspective,
and it creates its own problems when people are starting interpreting the fighting and warfare military policy on such little context.
But I will stop here. So it was more factual. But you see that overall in the last eight, nine months,
there is so many changes in all three Baltic states which you can see in for the last ten years ago when we're entering NATO,
there was big movements of soldiers, money, etc.
Now for ten years, we just examined this and it'll be a crucial year fall for the Baltic states.
It's changing radically changing perception, mentality are all armed forces.
And I think some some lesson decisions will be made, already made because of what is happening in Ukraine.
We existential afraid of Russia. Simply put, we are afraid that they will come because it won't be the first time.
And we know from our history how it looked like when they were here.