1 00:00:00,510 --> 00:00:05,550 Hello and welcome to what is the first episode of Almanac, the Oxford Middle East podcast. 2 00:00:05,550 --> 00:00:13,170 My name Piotr Shulkes and today I'm joined by Frederic Brookhoven, and Michael Memari to discuss Netanyahu's threats to annexe the West Bank. 3 00:00:13,170 --> 00:00:17,290 The normalisation of the relationship between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. 4 00:00:17,290 --> 00:00:23,000 However, this leaves the Palestinians since the moment of its birth. 5 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:29,360 Israel has yearned for peace with our Palestinian neighbours and peace with the broader Arab world. 6 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:36,440 For decades, that piece has proved elusive peace transcends politics. 7 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:43,470 He is saying that he is giving legitimacy to a legal patronisation programme in the West Bank, 8 00:00:43,470 --> 00:00:54,020 that this is the end of the notion of a two state solution and that any way young people across the Middle East are ready for a more hopeful future. 9 00:00:54,020 --> 00:00:59,180 How do you have a Israeli-Palestinian peace deal if the Palestinians are not part of it? 10 00:00:59,180 --> 00:01:09,600 We are two hundred thousand more than the Jewish Israelis. So Israel has to face the reality. 11 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,660 I'd like to begin bringing in Iran because until this normalisation, 12 00:01:13,660 --> 00:01:21,070 the largest bit of news coming out of the Middle East was Trump's assassination of Customs Philharmonie in January. 13 00:01:21,070 --> 00:01:28,660 And Iran has been the architect against which the UAE, Israel and a Trump administration have positioned themselves. 14 00:01:28,660 --> 00:01:35,710 The statement itself says, and I quote, The three countries share a similar outlook regarding the threats in the region. 15 00:01:35,710 --> 00:01:39,970 And while it does not mention Iran, the implication there is very strong. 16 00:01:39,970 --> 00:01:42,280 Michael, what do you want to delve into that a little bit? 17 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:52,030 It's obvious that Iran is one of the biggest factors underlying the what is now called the Abrahamic chord, 18 00:01:52,030 --> 00:02:02,110 because honestly, that has been the basis for Colvert relations between Gulf states and Israel for some time now. 19 00:02:02,110 --> 00:02:07,970 Interestingly enough, however, very soon after the announcement of the Islamic Court, the UAE, 20 00:02:07,970 --> 00:02:16,240 it's say that this was not in direct response to Iran and wanted to downplay the role 21 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:23,260 of the shared perceived threat of Iran as a factor going into this normalisation deal. 22 00:02:23,260 --> 00:02:29,380 Iran obviously outright criticised a normalisation with Israel. 23 00:02:29,380 --> 00:02:41,590 Iran has no no interest whatsoever in normalising relations with Israel, perhaps even teebs it as an existential threat, as does Israel. 24 00:02:41,590 --> 00:02:53,770 These would be Iran and its whole basis is grounded in and pay Zionist policy and is very much intertwined 25 00:02:53,770 --> 00:03:05,200 with the cause of the Palestinian states as as it sees itself as sort of a Han Islamic power, 26 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:15,820 safeguarding or championing the rights and the well-being of Islamic states or of of Muslims in the region. 27 00:03:15,820 --> 00:03:20,290 And if you if you look at the Israeli perspective as well, it's very clear that for them, 28 00:03:20,290 --> 00:03:25,270 security has been the overriding priority for pretty much everything they've done in the region recently. 29 00:03:25,270 --> 00:03:33,370 And I think the best way to representatives in three different ways, in a more general aspect, I think the one which is most visible historically, 30 00:03:33,370 --> 00:03:40,060 they've always wanted a degree of the times with the Arab powers in order to not be at war constantly. 31 00:03:40,060 --> 00:03:45,940 And also deterrence through overwhelming strength has also been a central tenant in the offence. 32 00:03:45,940 --> 00:03:53,530 More recently as as the news has shown, there have been a number of attacks which are very difficult to explain in Iran. 33 00:03:53,530 --> 00:03:57,380 Explosions in sensitive sites and fires in sensitive sites. 34 00:03:57,380 --> 00:04:05,370 And that fits with the Israeli priority of wanting to limit the capability, whatever capability that may be within Iran as much as they can. 35 00:04:05,370 --> 00:04:08,380 And that obviously is much closer to home for Israel as well. 36 00:04:08,380 --> 00:04:15,560 If you think of the Iranian relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with whom Israel has a long and difficult relationship, 37 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:21,640 and especially with Hamas as well in Gaza, with whom Iran has had a relationship. 38 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:26,350 The third aspect of the security is focussed on Palestine, where, again, 39 00:04:26,350 --> 00:04:30,740 Israel's propensity for overwhelming power clearly plays a hand where they want to, 40 00:04:30,740 --> 00:04:36,280 why they want to have a position of overwhelming power when they negotiate with the Palestinians. 41 00:04:36,280 --> 00:04:39,250 And that is something we'll discuss later in the episode as well. 42 00:04:39,250 --> 00:04:46,090 But there the peace deal negotiated by Trump said between the Palestinians and the Israelis, 43 00:04:46,090 --> 00:04:52,510 although the Palestinians not participated in it, focuses very much on the security of Israel. 44 00:04:52,510 --> 00:04:58,360 And it seems also through the politics that that is the overriding priority which they have. 45 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:04,720 However, though, despite Deery being possibly the most influential state in the region, with the possible exception of Saudi Arabia, 46 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:11,110 it does not seem very likely that other states will follow its lead when it comes to normalising 47 00:05:11,110 --> 00:05:18,240 relationships with Israel in terms of the reaction of other states in the Middle East. 48 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,890 It's been a mixed bag, to be honest. 49 00:05:20,890 --> 00:05:34,210 There have been some states that have rejected and condemned the normalisation deal outright, such as Morocco or Tunisia as well as Turkey. 50 00:05:34,210 --> 00:05:42,520 Iran has has threatened to expel the UAE ambassador, cut off diplomatic ties. 51 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:51,040 And this is tied in to the competition in the region between Turkey and the UAE. 52 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:56,740 Both have been vying for regional influence for a number of years now. 53 00:05:56,740 --> 00:06:07,840 Interestingly enough, despite Turkey's condemnation of the Abraham accord, Turkey itself has extensive ties with Israel. 54 00:06:07,840 --> 00:06:11,120 Both diplomat. As well as economic. 55 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:21,590 So it's very interesting, you know, this sort of cognitive dissonance when you when you hear the extreme nation that Turkey makes of the, 56 00:06:21,590 --> 00:06:29,300 you know, the UAE decision and its own relations with Israel, 57 00:06:29,300 --> 00:06:39,890 Lebanon, Bahrain and Oman have all reluctantly supported the deal and obviously say things like, 58 00:06:39,890 --> 00:06:44,960 obviously, it's the UAE is sovereign, right to make this decision. 59 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,760 And they see it as a slightly positive development. However, 60 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:58,550 none of them and no other state in the Arab world has followed up with this normalisation deal by announcing 61 00:06:58,550 --> 00:07:07,370 its own plans normalise relations with Israel very much to the disappointment of Secretary of State Pompeo, 62 00:07:07,370 --> 00:07:12,260 who visited the region, went to Israel, went to Sudan, 63 00:07:12,260 --> 00:07:21,780 went to the Bahrain and the UAE with the very blatant purpose of with them and convinced him to follow suit. 64 00:07:21,780 --> 00:07:23,030 You know, you're completely correct. 65 00:07:23,030 --> 00:07:30,590 And something which has also been very noticeable about this normalisation is where it leaves the Palestinians, because historically, of course, 66 00:07:30,590 --> 00:07:37,730 there have been certain requirements from the Arab Peace Initiative for what relationships Arab states are going to have with the Palestinians. 67 00:07:37,730 --> 00:07:42,200 It was interesting what Michael just said about this normalisation being seen as 68 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:47,240 something positive or like how it's been tacitly approved of by other Arab states. 69 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,230 Because if you think about this normalisation without the presence of the Palestinians, 70 00:07:51,230 --> 00:07:55,940 if you completely disregard the Palestinians, I would say that for the region, this is a positive development. 71 00:07:55,940 --> 00:08:01,550 However, there are Palestinians who obviously have been stabbed in the back to vote. 72 00:08:01,550 --> 00:08:05,720 Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, he's called the deal despicable. 73 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:10,520 And the Palestinian Authority has recalled its ambassador to the UAE in protest. 74 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:17,720 And for the Palestinians who have not even there were not even consulted in the process of coming to this agreement at all. 75 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:22,880 The message is really clear, which is that they have no say and that their voice does not matter when it comes 76 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,470 to the annexation plans or just the general diplomacy in the region right now, 77 00:08:27,470 --> 00:08:32,630 which obviously is only a formalisation of what they perhaps already knew. 78 00:08:32,630 --> 00:08:35,540 But nonetheless, it's very disappointing for them. 79 00:08:35,540 --> 00:08:44,120 Historically, Palestine has been the cause around which politicians around the Middle East have rallied in which they've used to rally their citizens. 80 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:49,340 But now it seems that their security views of Iran has become the new central rallying point. 81 00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:55,460 Do you think that is why they've felt able or comfortable betraying the Palestinians? 82 00:08:55,460 --> 00:09:07,640 Or is there another reason for it? I think definitely the existential threat that Iran poses to other actors in the region certainly 83 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:19,670 plays a role in the relations that Arab states have in fostering with Israel for some time now. 84 00:09:19,670 --> 00:09:23,180 Now, these relations obviously have been more discreet, 85 00:09:23,180 --> 00:09:34,580 and that obviously serves a dual purpose and a balancing act really between practical security in terms 86 00:09:34,580 --> 00:09:42,590 of coordinating with Israel and the intelligence sharing in order to balance the threat of Iran. 87 00:09:42,590 --> 00:09:48,890 But at the same time, by having them discreet in this ambiguous zone, 88 00:09:48,890 --> 00:09:55,760 being able to play key, the domestic audience, therefore have their cake and eat it, too. 89 00:09:55,760 --> 00:10:01,640 I will say, however, that perhaps this is not just about Iran. 90 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:08,600 And on one hand, Arab states might feel that there is just no momentum, for example, 91 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:15,800 with the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 calling for complete normalisation with Israel, 92 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:27,560 but with the caveats that Israel returns all lands that had been occupied since 67 and the establishment of a Palestinian state. 93 00:10:27,560 --> 00:10:31,610 I mean, since that initiative, what has happened? 94 00:10:31,610 --> 00:10:36,650 The Palestinian cause has not only stalled, but it's degraded. 95 00:10:36,650 --> 00:10:41,210 I mean, Israel has continued with, you know, settlements. 96 00:10:41,210 --> 00:10:48,620 And unfortunately, we haven't seen any leadership in the international realm, particularly from the US. 97 00:10:48,620 --> 00:10:56,720 I mean, unfortunately, the EU is not in a position to fill the void of American leadership on this regard. 98 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:00,890 I mean, either it's unable to or it's been unwilling or both. 99 00:11:00,890 --> 00:11:08,420 They just don't want to get their hands dirty because I think you raise something interesting that there's been a lack of international leadership. 100 00:11:08,420 --> 00:11:14,850 And I do believe that a reason for that might be the total lack of no agency, 101 00:11:14,850 --> 00:11:19,350 which the Palestinian Authority seems to have despite having a fledgling state. 102 00:11:19,350 --> 00:11:25,980 They don't have the opportunity like Israel, like to do it, like other countries, to express their needs internationally. 103 00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:28,840 And it's something which Fredricka hinted towards earlier, 104 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:33,540 both saying that they have recalled their ambassador from the area and that internationally is about as 105 00:11:33,540 --> 00:11:40,140 much as they can do because they don't have the structures necessary to spread the voice any further. 106 00:11:40,140 --> 00:11:45,900 What they've done within Israel, though, recently, especially since the peace plan from those amounts, 107 00:11:45,900 --> 00:11:51,750 is quite interesting because what they have announced is that they have been absolved of all responsibilities, 108 00:11:51,750 --> 00:11:57,180 which they have to both Israel and the US as part of that tape stopped security cooperation, 109 00:11:57,180 --> 00:12:01,590 which has been probably the place where they have had the closest relationship with Israel, 110 00:12:01,590 --> 00:12:06,660 where they exchange information about potential terrorist attacks, about potential reasons for unrest. 111 00:12:06,660 --> 00:12:11,430 And they've done this in an effort to show Israel the burden Israel would have to carry, 112 00:12:11,430 --> 00:12:16,770 should they annexe or should they move towards undermining the Palestinian Authority. 113 00:12:16,770 --> 00:12:23,040 In addition to that, they also have rejected Texas, where they traditionally get from Israeli governments. 114 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:29,580 These are taxes collected in Palestine by the Israeli government to which the Israeli government then gives back to the Palestinian Authority. 115 00:12:29,580 --> 00:12:34,050 And these Texas accounts for roughly 60 percent of the Palestinian Authority's budget. 116 00:12:34,050 --> 00:12:40,530 So it is, in effect, torpedoing, doing themselves in order to put pressure on Israel. 117 00:12:40,530 --> 00:12:45,720 And the goal here seems to be to create a degree of instability in the West Bank and Gaza, 118 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:52,560 because previous occasions where there broke off security partnerships with Israel have all led to spikes in violence. 119 00:12:52,560 --> 00:12:57,840 And I think it's a very clear indication that they don't have many cards to play. 120 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:04,530 And because of that, they are doing what they can in order to create as much attention on the situation as possible. 121 00:13:04,530 --> 00:13:14,300 And both for tough and Hamas have applauded this move also because it's very popular within Palestine to stop putting pressure 122 00:13:14,300 --> 00:13:21,690 on Israel due to the anger at the annexation plan caused by Trump and now the normalisation under terms of the Muslim faith. 123 00:13:21,690 --> 00:13:29,490 Many people have in the whole process, but also in in Israel, that's been a substantial amount of resistance to the annexation plan. 124 00:13:29,490 --> 00:13:33,630 So Israel is generally quite divided about the annexation plans. 125 00:13:33,630 --> 00:13:39,420 Only four percent of Israeli society says that annexation should be at the top of the Israeli national agenda, 126 00:13:39,420 --> 00:13:45,630 which is obviously a really, really small percentage. Israel is dealing with a Korona crisis, which has hit it quite hard. 127 00:13:45,630 --> 00:13:51,000 And even before that, the current crisis started, there was already an economic crisis, unemployment. 128 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:58,170 There are some shocking in the past few years already there are some shocking numbers about children living in poverty in Israel. 129 00:13:58,170 --> 00:14:03,570 A lot of Israelis, even if they perhaps are not entirely against the idea of annexation or they have 130 00:14:03,570 --> 00:14:08,670 some ideological they haven't a real ideological understanding of the annexation. 131 00:14:08,670 --> 00:14:13,560 It doesn't mean that they actually support the annexation right now. That's only four percent. And actually, 132 00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:18,060 50 percent of Israelis right now believe that annexation is bad for Israel as it is a really 133 00:14:18,060 --> 00:14:23,520 costly project that Insteps says that should be spent on the well-being of Israeli citizens. 134 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:28,170 So there is a massive gap between government policies and what the majority of society wants. 135 00:14:28,170 --> 00:14:36,330 That being said, those that four percent of Israeli society that believes that annexation should be the priority right now is mostly the far right. 136 00:14:36,330 --> 00:14:40,890 These are mostly the settlers, which are over half a million. 137 00:14:40,890 --> 00:14:45,120 Around six and eight thousand settlers are living in the West Bank right now. 138 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:52,500 And these are usually the hardliners on annexation believe that it is a really important next step for the Israeli state. 139 00:14:52,500 --> 00:14:57,930 But even the settlers, interestingly, are divided about the annexation plans because some of them, 140 00:14:57,930 --> 00:15:03,450 some of them see it as regarded as the opportunities that they've been waiting for for over 15 years, 141 00:15:03,450 --> 00:15:11,100 while others rejected simply because the annexation plan as presented by Trump, it leaves the potential for a Palestinian state. 142 00:15:11,100 --> 00:15:18,210 And for those settlers and far right Israeli citizens, the price of a Palestinian state entity is considered too high. 143 00:15:18,210 --> 00:15:23,460 In the Yashar Council, which is an umbrella organisation made up of around 24 heads of settlements councils. 144 00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:27,540 There were splits and a slight majority supported Trump's annexation plan. 145 00:15:27,540 --> 00:15:35,310 But then again, they reject clauses like freezing construction in settlements or reaching an agreement with Palestinians. 146 00:15:35,310 --> 00:15:44,550 And this is also means that even on the far, far right, who are the main proponents of the annexation funds, there have been protests in around June. 147 00:15:44,550 --> 00:15:49,140 About 1000 settlers protested on a hilltop outside the Gush Etzion settlements, 148 00:15:49,140 --> 00:15:53,280 vowing to build more settlements in the area this month for a Palestinian state by the peace plan. 149 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:55,770 And then on the other side, on the complete opposite end. 150 00:15:55,770 --> 00:16:02,490 There have also been protests from Jewish and Arab Israeli citizens who believe that annexation jeopardises 151 00:16:02,490 --> 00:16:07,950 all prospects for peace and is absolutely not what the Israeli state should be focussing right now. 152 00:16:07,950 --> 00:16:13,440 So. Say that Israeli society is really split on the annexation plans and even within the far right. 153 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:18,930 Which is the small percentage of people who are the predominant force behind annexation plans. 154 00:16:18,930 --> 00:16:23,700 Even there is not a unanimous support for the annexation. Yeah, I found something similar. 155 00:16:23,700 --> 00:16:27,540 There's a lawmaker in Israel called the Bezalel Smokler. 156 00:16:27,540 --> 00:16:31,770 And he said my quote, Either the settlements have a future or the Palestinian state does. 157 00:16:31,770 --> 00:16:34,620 But not both. And it's in effect, highlights what you're saying, 158 00:16:34,620 --> 00:16:42,600 which is that unless Netanyahu or a future Israeli government go all the way and settlement building and annexation, 159 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:49,020 there will always, interestingly enough, face resistance from the most far right parties within their governments. 160 00:16:49,020 --> 00:16:57,000 But in addition to that, there's also more political costs for Netanyahu, because a major problem with the annexation is how expensive it is. 161 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:04,170 It's estimated that it would cost about twelve percent of the national budget to annexe even only parts of the West Bank. 162 00:17:04,170 --> 00:17:12,270 In addition to that, the military establishment or the security establishment are not happy with the annexation plans because they feel not enough 163 00:17:12,270 --> 00:17:20,160 preparation has been made for how they will deal with the potential uprisings and unrest which would happen to an annexation come. 164 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:26,280 So there have been a number of very high profile ex military individuals have expressed very strong 165 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:32,910 resistance to Netanyahu's annexation plan because they feel it would represent a danger to Israel, 166 00:17:32,910 --> 00:17:36,990 which is bigger than the gains which would justify this, interestingly. 167 00:17:36,990 --> 00:17:42,720 I've also spoken to a couple of Israelis who actually think that the annexation was never supposed to happen. 168 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:47,580 But there are, especially on the left wing, younger people who say the annexation. 169 00:17:47,580 --> 00:17:52,260 No one in their right mind would embark on such a costly project. 170 00:17:52,260 --> 00:17:56,940 It would threaten the lives of a lot of Israelis. Inevitably, violence would break out. 171 00:17:56,940 --> 00:18:02,250 And there are Israelis who think that this is simply a project for leverage, 172 00:18:02,250 --> 00:18:07,530 which the normalisation has been greatly facilitated by the threat of annexation. 173 00:18:07,530 --> 00:18:17,520 And so there are Israeli citizens who are angry because they feel like this whole project is just a political game between Netanyahu, 174 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:24,490 Trump and other political leaders. We're trying to achieve something else and that the annexation is just leverage in this whole project. 175 00:18:24,490 --> 00:18:32,520 And in addition to that, this is one of the strongest cards which Israel has, is their position as a reasonable act in the Middle East. 176 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,250 And they have always managed to portray the Palestinians. 177 00:18:35,250 --> 00:18:43,380 They've always managed to, I'd argue, mis portray the Palestinians as the party ended the negotiations, which is unwilling to compromise. 178 00:18:43,380 --> 00:18:50,550 And should Israel move towards annexation unilaterally, they would lose a lot of the goodwill who wish to have on the international scene. 179 00:18:50,550 --> 00:18:57,030 And that would severely undermine their future capabilities to create goodwill in both Europe and in the U.S. over them. 180 00:18:57,030 --> 00:19:00,600 I think what's really interesting is that for the first time in years and years and years, 181 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:07,020 we saw European leaders finally say, actually, if this annexation goes through, we have to put our foot down. 182 00:19:07,020 --> 00:19:08,580 We can't accept this anymore. 183 00:19:08,580 --> 00:19:16,770 I feel like Israel has finally reached the limits of what the democratically elected leaders in Europe can accept without losing face. 184 00:19:16,770 --> 00:19:25,050 How can they support Israel and then condemn other countries and explain to their constituencies why they are still having relations with Israel? 185 00:19:25,050 --> 00:19:30,030 And I think that the annexation would push European leaders to the point where they can no longer support Israel. 186 00:19:30,030 --> 00:19:35,400 Without that leading to a political embarrassment, Merkel, it's something you hinted further as well. 187 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,910 Do you think the same applies to regional leaders within the Middle East? 188 00:19:38,910 --> 00:19:41,160 Because you mentioned Tunisia and Morocco, 189 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:47,400 but I guess official annexation would be an indefensible step for very many leaders in the Arab world as well, 190 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:53,490 especially considering how much of a hot button issue Palestine has been historically with in the Middle East. 191 00:19:53,490 --> 00:20:05,610 Yes. I mean, it's very interesting to see where the trajectory of Arab pain is going with regards to the Palestinian and Israeli issue and 192 00:20:05,610 --> 00:20:16,330 perhaps the divergence of what the normal person on the street thinks about it and how their governments are going about it. 193 00:20:16,330 --> 00:20:21,990 And there are several reasons behind this. One is just the motivation behind this. 194 00:20:21,990 --> 00:20:27,750 And we sort of talked about this earlier. Part of it has to do with the perceived Iranian threat. 195 00:20:27,750 --> 00:20:34,050 Another part of it, however, has to do with, as we said, the momentum of the issue on the ground, 196 00:20:34,050 --> 00:20:42,960 the reality on the ground, as well as the motivation of states to use this for their own ends, 197 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:50,100 have been looking forward to attaining certain military technology, particularly the F-35, 198 00:20:50,100 --> 00:20:58,170 which it was reported as a big reason why the UAE went into this normalisation of court in the first place. 199 00:20:58,170 --> 00:21:08,680 And we are hearing the fallouts of it where Israel has reneg its approval for F-35 to be sold to the UAE. 200 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:16,090 And congressmen in Washington have also expressed their displeasure at this prospect and its 201 00:21:16,090 --> 00:21:24,030 implications for the qualitative military edge that Washington has always tried to preserve for Israel. 202 00:21:24,030 --> 00:21:31,900 Let's good to race Washington because I wanted to get there eventually because America is the most important ally Israel has. 203 00:21:31,900 --> 00:21:41,380 And it was also in the poll I saw that 25 percent of Israelis would not want to participate in annexation if it wasn't with American support. 204 00:21:41,380 --> 00:21:48,610 And it shows how central a close alliance between the two countries is. 205 00:21:48,610 --> 00:21:55,110 However, there is also strong indications that the policies which we've seen from Israel and from you, 206 00:21:55,110 --> 00:21:59,380 in all honesty, have only been possible with Trump in the White House. 207 00:21:59,380 --> 00:22:04,990 And so the next thing I wanted to raise was the potential effects of Biden becoming president, 208 00:22:04,990 --> 00:22:11,210 because, first of all, he doesn't have an as pro-Israel stance as Trump has had. 209 00:22:11,210 --> 00:22:14,890 However, he is still by no means critical of Israel. 210 00:22:14,890 --> 00:22:23,620 And he also has the left wing of the Democratic Party to deal with another poll in the U.S. show that only three percent of people in the U.S. are 211 00:22:23,620 --> 00:22:33,920 self-described as liberal support Israel more than to support Palestine and the way the ascendancy of Congress people are killed on Omar RHOA column. 212 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:40,150 There are very strong opinions on American foreign policy. I'm curious what you guys think of what will happen there. 213 00:22:40,150 --> 00:22:49,240 Should I become president? So while Biden has negatively expressed himself about the annexation, as has declared, he's against annexation. 214 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:54,850 I have not come across any statements or speeches by him or Kamala Harris that 215 00:22:54,850 --> 00:22:59,800 made me believe that he will stand against Israel if it decides to annexe. 216 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:06,490 In fact, a few days ago, Harris, who would be Vice President Joe Biden were elected as president, 217 00:23:06,490 --> 00:23:10,810 reiterated that Biden will not impose any conditions on U.S. aid to Israel, 218 00:23:10,810 --> 00:23:15,940 saying that assistance would not be linked to any political decision made by the Israeli government. 219 00:23:15,940 --> 00:23:20,200 So even if Biden himself does not support the annexation, 220 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:25,120 the three point a billion U.S. dollar that are in military aid that Israel receives 221 00:23:25,120 --> 00:23:30,220 annually will not be impacted if they do decide to proceed with annexation. 222 00:23:30,220 --> 00:23:40,420 While Biden is president, I think possibly related to that is for all the wrong content of the peace plan Trump made with Israel. 223 00:23:40,420 --> 00:23:44,650 I do think it often said the quote part out loud because there is a sentence in there 224 00:23:44,650 --> 00:23:50,380 which says that it is unrealistic to expect Israel to compromise on the security issues. 225 00:23:50,380 --> 00:23:54,530 And while I don't think American presidents would say so. 226 00:23:54,530 --> 00:23:57,860 It has been the unspoken basis of their relationship. 227 00:23:57,860 --> 00:24:04,240 As Craig, would you say for the record, that the U.S. will probably never truly put pressure on on Israel the way we wanted to, 228 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:10,360 because even J Street, which is considered a very progressive think tank in the US, 229 00:24:10,360 --> 00:24:14,410 and Bernie Sanders spoke there during his election campaign in twenty nineteen, 230 00:24:14,410 --> 00:24:19,090 they still believe in a two state solution which will discuss the status. 231 00:24:19,090 --> 00:24:23,560 But I don't think is you know, it's it's not up with the times to put it that way. 232 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,000 Also what you're saying, filter. 233 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:32,140 It's interesting that historically, if you look at the election cycle, which is obviously for every four years for the presidential elections, 234 00:24:32,140 --> 00:24:36,430 that during the elections and when re-election is is about to happen. 235 00:24:36,430 --> 00:24:44,050 So about the last year of the four year term, presidents have always been a lot more vocal about their support to Israel. 236 00:24:44,050 --> 00:24:47,020 That's actually a really interesting pattern that you can see historically. 237 00:24:47,020 --> 00:24:57,700 And so I think that Biden is all is also really afraid to say anything that might alienate voters who are still predominantly pro Israeli. 238 00:24:57,700 --> 00:25:02,500 This is also an issue that I think is becoming more and more divisive in the U.S. right now. 239 00:25:02,500 --> 00:25:09,970 The camp of people who are pro Palestinian is growing, but the camp of people who are pro Israel is growing as well at the cost. 240 00:25:09,970 --> 00:25:14,110 The people in the middle, we don't really have an opinion about this. And so does that. 241 00:25:14,110 --> 00:25:17,980 This is why I think that Biden is so quick to support Israel fully, 242 00:25:17,980 --> 00:25:23,770 because he knows that it's a very dangerous political game to position yourself on the other end of that spectrum. 243 00:25:23,770 --> 00:25:26,920 And I think there's actually been an episode recently, 244 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:33,400 which I think is extremely telling of this dynamic, which is the controversy concerning Linda Sarsour. 245 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:39,670 So Sarsour is a popular figure in progressive Muslim and Arab circles and as a supporter of the Bebe s movement, 246 00:25:39,670 --> 00:25:41,880 which I think we'll discuss later on as well. 247 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:48,250 And she appears in a panel on the Democratic National Convention to discuss voter engagement amongst the Muslim constituency. 248 00:25:48,250 --> 00:25:54,280 And Trump's campaign condemned her appearance, saying that Biden endorsed the bigotry against Jewish people. 249 00:25:54,280 --> 00:26:02,590 So there's a very quick transition from the BDA movement and critical criticism of Israel to anti-Semitism, 250 00:26:02,590 --> 00:26:06,730 which is also, I think is a historical pattern that we can see. 251 00:26:06,730 --> 00:26:13,560 And by. His campaign immediately distanced itself and announced Sarsour and have interviews. 252 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:14,760 And in fact, 253 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:22,080 I'll quote the campaign spokesman who said Joe Biden has been a strong supporter of Israel and a vehement opponent of anti-Semitism his entire life. 254 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:27,420 And he obviously condemns her views and opposes PBS, as does the Democratic platform. 255 00:26:27,420 --> 00:26:32,940 And so, interestingly, he does not only say that he uncritically supports Israel. 256 00:26:32,940 --> 00:26:38,520 He also does not counter the idea that criticism of Israel is anti-Semitism. 257 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,540 They have apologised privately about this controversy because obviously Muslim 258 00:26:42,540 --> 00:26:47,370 and Arab people quickly spoke out and said that this position was problematic. 259 00:26:47,370 --> 00:26:54,330 But it's really it's a very telling episode because it shows an unshakeable posable Israel standpoint. 260 00:26:54,330 --> 00:27:00,960 It shows that during the campaign, every presidential candidate is really keen on showing that they uncritically 261 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:06,450 support Israel and that we can equate criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism, 262 00:27:06,450 --> 00:27:12,960 I think related stuff. It's also something which has become very problematic with the Israel Palestine discourse, 263 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:21,780 and that is that overall the best is always assumed of Israeli actions, while the worst is assumed of the actions of Palestinians. 264 00:27:21,780 --> 00:27:25,140 And this is especially clear if you read Trump's peace plan, 265 00:27:25,140 --> 00:27:32,550 where Palestinians are regularly referred to as terrorists and Israel is regularly referred to as a nation under attack. 266 00:27:32,550 --> 00:27:39,090 And while that is not a lie. It is also a very generous portrayal of the truth as it is, 267 00:27:39,090 --> 00:27:45,630 because Israel is a country which has so much larger accept and vice versa, have been violent towards the Palestinians. 268 00:27:45,630 --> 00:27:53,040 And the discourse has become corrupted to such an extent where support for the Palestinians equated to being, 269 00:27:53,040 --> 00:28:02,220 as you said, an anti-Semite or a terrorist sympathiser. And a part of the corruption of the discourse has led to the rise and fall, unfortunately, 270 00:28:02,220 --> 00:28:08,080 of the PBS movement, which has seen a growth in popularity in the last five years. 271 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:15,120 But after that, it has hit quite a lot of resistance. The issue of security is also at the individual level. 272 00:28:15,120 --> 00:28:23,730 If you want to say, rather than this macro level with the beedis movement and the conflation of VVS 273 00:28:23,730 --> 00:28:30,420 and tie Israeli sort of settlement and annexation policies with anti-Semitism. 274 00:28:30,420 --> 00:28:37,560 Now we have seen this growing progressive clout within US politics. 275 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:47,460 And for example, just very recently, Congresswoman Betty McCollum from Minnesota introduced the Israeli annexation nonrecognition, 276 00:28:47,460 --> 00:28:55,490 which aims to prohibit the US from formally recognising or providing U.S. aid to any of the areas occupied 277 00:28:55,490 --> 00:29:03,240 in the West Bank and annexed by by Israel in violation of international laws and definitely putting, 278 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:09,780 you know, conditions on any U.S. aid and staking it to this issue. 279 00:29:09,780 --> 00:29:18,690 But unfortunately, PBS is definitely a really interesting grassroots movement to apply pressure at the individual 280 00:29:18,690 --> 00:29:23,730 level and sort of from the bottom up to put pressure not only on the Israeli government, 281 00:29:23,730 --> 00:29:36,510 but also on companies, even governments, to really be selective in how you support Israel and really seeing where where the money goes. 282 00:29:36,510 --> 00:29:43,020 And here we definitely see a reaction against A.D.s at the federal level. 283 00:29:43,020 --> 00:29:56,190 We have seen A.D.s laws try to be implemented by members of Congress that would make it illegal to partake in the yes movement. 284 00:29:56,190 --> 00:30:03,090 And this has definitely been followed up by I think 32 states have adopted laws, 285 00:30:03,090 --> 00:30:08,220 executive orders or resolutions designed to discourage boycotts against history. 286 00:30:08,220 --> 00:30:14,340 And the way that these initiatives work is that they require the creation of blacklists of activists, 287 00:30:14,340 --> 00:30:17,940 non-profit organisations and companies engaged in boycotts of Israel. 288 00:30:17,940 --> 00:30:26,160 They prohibit government contracts from being signed with people involved, A.D.s and also pension fund divestment. 289 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:33,330 So we definitely see this backlash against A.D.s, which is is very unfortunate, too. 290 00:30:33,330 --> 00:30:38,460 This is a question for both of you. Do you think that there will also be a backlash to the backlash? 291 00:30:38,460 --> 00:30:46,650 As the Post discussed earlier, show being proposed is becoming more common and more popular in Western Europe and America. 292 00:30:46,650 --> 00:30:53,940 I guess the question I'm asking is, will there be a degree of growing global awareness about the situation which can put pressure on Israel? 293 00:30:53,940 --> 00:31:01,710 I think the backlash against the U.S. and itself also shows its success, because the fact that people think, 294 00:31:01,710 --> 00:31:07,600 that lawmakers think and politicians think that this grassroots movement needs to be addressed and that laws need to. 295 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:14,210 Prohibit participation in videos, shows the effects and the fear that they have for the effects of the media might move. 296 00:31:14,210 --> 00:31:19,600 It might have. I also know that in Israel there's a lot of fear for the movement. 297 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:26,290 PBS activists have repeatedly been denied access to Israel. This is something part of the screen procedure. 298 00:31:26,290 --> 00:31:31,510 If you tried to enter Israel, the people that the offices at the airport will sometimes look at your social media. 299 00:31:31,510 --> 00:31:37,540 And if it becomes clear that you're involved in any previous activities, entry to Israel can be denied. 300 00:31:37,540 --> 00:31:43,720 And I think that that this these policies, in combination with the laws and state level in the US, 301 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:48,820 just demonstrate how powerful these politicians believe that videos could be. 302 00:31:48,820 --> 00:31:53,080 Which in itself shows the success and the power of PBS already. 303 00:31:53,080 --> 00:32:02,680 I'll just add one thing that within interestingly enough, yes, we could see a backlash to the backlash against Petey's has. 304 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:09,730 Unfortunately, at least on the Democratic side, we actually see a backlash to PBS been preserved, 305 00:32:09,730 --> 00:32:15,750 at least on a formal level in the official platform at the DNC. 306 00:32:15,750 --> 00:32:27,070 You know, Biden, the Biden campaign did say that it was opposed to BD s and as well as any efforts to, 307 00:32:27,070 --> 00:32:34,570 quote unquote, unfairly single out and delegitimize Israel either through s or at the United Nations. 308 00:32:34,570 --> 00:32:45,550 So it will be interesting to see the momentum of the efforts to take down S and whether or not PBS has a movement itself, 309 00:32:45,550 --> 00:32:50,830 has enough momentum to weather that storm and flourish more. 310 00:32:50,830 --> 00:32:54,560 That brings me to the very last question. I wanted to ask something. 311 00:32:54,560 --> 00:33:01,660 The episode has to select somebody building up because what we have seen so far is a degree of abdication of responsibility amongst Arab states, 312 00:33:01,660 --> 00:33:08,500 especially the UAE in this case. But also Saudi Arabia has said they are interested in following a similar path. 313 00:33:08,500 --> 00:33:15,580 Israel has shown that annexation has become a policy which is broadly acceptable. 314 00:33:15,580 --> 00:33:21,380 America has also shown itself to not be an actor which can stop or will stop Israel doing it. 315 00:33:21,380 --> 00:33:27,820 And because of that, I thought the two periods in the past where the Palestinians have had the most 316 00:33:27,820 --> 00:33:32,770 attention from the world have been the two uprisings or intifadas and in Arabic. 317 00:33:32,770 --> 00:33:33,700 And I was wondering, 318 00:33:33,700 --> 00:33:42,880 considering the total lack of faith in the process and considering the lack of capacity the Palestinian Authority has to do anything, 319 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:48,520 has it laid the groundwork for potentially a third major intifada in Palestine? 320 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:57,550 I doubt it. I really doubt it. Although I know that this intifadas were moments when the Palestinians had the most international attention. 321 00:33:57,550 --> 00:34:04,600 And in many ways, the first intifada was also quite successful. Limited success, but still right now, an intifada. 322 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,020 The Palestinians have a lot to lose right now. 323 00:34:07,020 --> 00:34:13,630 They are currently struggling with a corona virus, which has an impact not only in terms of public health, 324 00:34:13,630 --> 00:34:18,370 but is also predominantly an economic crisis in the West Bank and Gaza. 325 00:34:18,370 --> 00:34:21,790 This is taking up a lot of effort and attention right now. 326 00:34:21,790 --> 00:34:24,720 We've seen in Lebanon that after the explosion. 327 00:34:24,720 --> 00:34:31,360 KORONA Kate, the cases of Korona are rising really rapidly because people are out on the street helping each other. 328 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:37,010 And an intifada would also be an absolute disaster for the public health of the Palestinians. 329 00:34:37,010 --> 00:34:42,010 Plus, in June, when the annexation was still on the table, 330 00:34:42,010 --> 00:34:48,100 only 31 percent or less than a third of Palestinians said that they potentially supported armed resistance. 331 00:34:48,100 --> 00:34:52,330 So another father. That was when the annexation was still a possibility. 332 00:34:52,330 --> 00:34:57,670 And that would be in the case of annexation, since annexation is off the table for now. 333 00:34:57,670 --> 00:35:03,970 I think this percentage will be a lot lower. And so I think that the number of Palestinians that support armed struggle at this moment. 334 00:35:03,970 --> 00:35:11,740 I think that percentage is extremely low. Well, taking that into consideration, too, is that if you don't think that peace has actually come closer, 335 00:35:11,740 --> 00:35:22,540 thanks to the peace plan of Donald Trump and B, to normalisation of the relationship between the UK and Israel, I would say that no. 336 00:35:22,540 --> 00:35:27,370 Obviously, I don't think peace is is any closer. 337 00:35:27,370 --> 00:35:42,340 First of all, the efforts of the Trump administration have been, you know, if not one sided, extremely polarising to the actors involved. 338 00:35:42,340 --> 00:35:55,830 The Trump administration has rarely, if at all, consulted authorities in Palestine and in a way have mimicked this maximum pressure campaign on Iran. 339 00:35:55,830 --> 00:36:07,480 V, the Palestinian Authority, in terms of cutting off all aid part clearly to the P.A., to Palestinian security forces and to the UN relief. 340 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:21,280 Works agency really has just been pressuring the P.A. to sort of just give in to Israeli demands and expectations in Washington. 341 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:32,980 Now, in terms of the regional states, again, it's plagued by the the security issue, the v Iran and how the nuclear negotiations are going to be. 342 00:36:32,980 --> 00:36:35,600 Also, in terms of the Arab states, as we have, 343 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:42,670 we've seen with the fallout of the announcement of the Abrahamic court know the Arab states are definitely not united on this issue. 344 00:36:42,670 --> 00:36:49,180 There are some states that believe, yes, normalisation and sort of, you know, saying that annexations is definitely a red line. 345 00:36:49,180 --> 00:36:59,620 But if you suspend that relations, this is not a strategy that is accepted by all the major members of the Arab League and in Washington. 346 00:36:59,620 --> 00:37:08,680 Despite the obstacles that restive caucus have in terms of reframing U.S. policy to Israel, 347 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:15,760 it has shown itself to be a strong enough force to at least affect the conversation. 348 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:28,990 So even within the U.S., there is not a good idea or a unified out idea of how to address this situation and to achieve peace. 349 00:37:28,990 --> 00:37:38,560 And what final peace is going to look like. My answer to that question would be that anyone who believes or says that peace is closer due 350 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:43,630 to the normalisation agreement between the UAE and Israel is fooling themselves because, 351 00:37:43,630 --> 00:37:46,150 yes, from an Israeli perspective, 352 00:37:46,150 --> 00:37:52,570 having good and peaceful relations with Arab neighbours seems to contribute to overall stability and peace in the region. 353 00:37:52,570 --> 00:37:57,940 But as long as as you know, the Palestinians have just been blatantly ignored in this whole issue. 354 00:37:57,940 --> 00:38:01,120 But as long as the Palestinian situation is not dealt with, 355 00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:08,080 you cannot create a stable and lasting peace without having this ticking time bomb in the middle of Israel, 356 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,590 which other Palestinian people who are just being are being ignored. 357 00:38:11,590 --> 00:38:18,060 And I think that any move towards peace that does not include the Palestinians is not lasting. 358 00:38:18,060 --> 00:38:27,330 And I have one more question, and that is about the idea of a two state solution, because I feel it has always been a bit of a fudge dovish loan. 359 00:38:27,330 --> 00:38:31,210 The historian has said that the two state solution never existed. 360 00:38:31,210 --> 00:38:34,960 Last call, it is said in January of this year that it was dead. 361 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,730 But still, despite that, 362 00:38:36,730 --> 00:38:45,550 it is something that certain people within Israeli politics and especially within European and American politics keep maintaining as possible. 363 00:38:45,550 --> 00:38:52,000 My question, therefore is, is this simply a balance which Israel is making in order to continue with the status quo, 364 00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,420 which is a very slow and unofficial annexation of Palestine? 365 00:38:55,420 --> 00:39:01,930 And they only say we'll keep the two state solution alive for the benefit of politicians in the West. 366 00:39:01,930 --> 00:39:06,190 I think that the one state solution is just something that needs a lot more thought. 367 00:39:06,190 --> 00:39:14,110 And there is very little political will both in Israel as as it is amongst the Palestinians to embrace the one state solution. 368 00:39:14,110 --> 00:39:22,870 And therefore, it's much easier to just continue down the path of the two state solution, which has been reformed and reused again, again, again. 369 00:39:22,870 --> 00:39:26,410 But I believe that it might have existed one day. 370 00:39:26,410 --> 00:39:31,000 But since the Oslo Accords and since the creeping annexation which is going on 371 00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:35,080 because of the settlements which have been skyrocketing since the Oslo Accords, 372 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:41,260 the two state solution is dead and it is really important to look at alternatives. 373 00:39:41,260 --> 00:39:50,550 However, the political will for this alternative is lacking. I will say that a two state solution or one state solution. 374 00:39:50,550 --> 00:39:54,930 It's it's it's very hard to see a lasting peace. 375 00:39:54,930 --> 00:39:57,610 And either way, it's going to be a messy process. 376 00:39:57,610 --> 00:40:09,970 And I think one of the big issues at the heart of why it is part of the rhetoric is Israel as a democratic, but yet also a Jewish state. 377 00:40:09,970 --> 00:40:16,630 So this focus on an identity of Jewish state is very exclusive. 378 00:40:16,630 --> 00:40:28,720 It's hard to square a democratic state that treats its citizens equally, but also focus on this identity that is also exclusive in nature. 379 00:40:28,720 --> 00:40:35,110 If you have a one state solution, how are Arabs, Palestinians and non Jews treated? 380 00:40:35,110 --> 00:40:37,360 Are they even given citizenship? 381 00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:48,190 This is a tricky point with regards to the two state solution, given the reality on the ground and the momentum of settlements. 382 00:40:48,190 --> 00:40:56,830 My fear would be that we would see something akin to what happened with the Ottoman Empire and Greece, 383 00:40:56,830 --> 00:41:07,460 where we then have population transfers in order to to meet certain expectations of what each. 384 00:41:07,460 --> 00:41:11,450 It looks like and what their demographics look like. 385 00:41:11,450 --> 00:41:24,080 I think the this topic of how what peace looks like for the ordinary citizen, for poor Jews, for Arab Palestinians. 386 00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:28,460 Which of those solutions is best? Because I definitely agree with Federica. 387 00:41:28,460 --> 00:41:33,650 I think what you were intimating killed that this phrase two state solution 388 00:41:33,650 --> 00:41:41,360 really has just led to the status quo and a worsening reality on the ground. 389 00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:45,530 Thank you for listening to the first episode of Dokes, a Middle East podcast. 390 00:41:45,530 --> 00:41:53,310 Join us for the next episode. We'll discuss the history of the Catholicism, its impact on the Middle East and the challenges facing. 391 00:41:53,310 --> 00:41:57,530 Almanack is a student run initiative from the Middle East Centre at the University of Oxford. 392 00:41:57,530 --> 00:42:02,190 The opinions expressed within the course did not in any way represent the official opinions 393 00:42:02,190 --> 00:42:06,920 of the University of Oxford or the Middle East until it's edited and hosted by myself. 394 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:12,870 Filters focus is invaluable and inspiring. Support from Felix Walker. 395 00:42:12,870 --> 00:42:16,950 Michael Memory of Max Randall. 396 00:42:16,950 --> 00:42:26,020 Frederico Koven Eamon.