1 00:00:03,570 --> 00:00:08,430 Good evening and welcome. This is the fourth webinar for the Middle East that are in Oxford. 2 00:00:08,430 --> 00:00:17,460 My name is Eugene Rogan and as director of the centre, it's my great pleasure to welcome you to tonight's seminar presentation on Saudi Arabia. 3 00:00:17,460 --> 00:00:22,470 Our speakers will be Professor Medowie Rashid from the London School of Economics, 4 00:00:22,470 --> 00:00:27,750 author of the forthcoming book for Some Key Reform and Repression in Saudi Arabia, 5 00:00:27,750 --> 00:00:34,200 which will be due out in December of twenty twenty and then hotbed of The New York Times, 6 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:39,120 whose most recent book, MBBS, The Rise to Power of Mohammed bin Salman, 7 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:49,530 has been on the lips of everybody talking about what is going on with Saudi Arabia under its influential and impetuous Crown Prince Ben Madary. 8 00:00:49,530 --> 00:00:53,910 What a pleasure to welcome you both to the Middle East Centre's webinar. 9 00:00:53,910 --> 00:00:59,900 How would you like to begin? Did we ever agree on the order of proceeding here? 10 00:00:59,900 --> 00:01:03,540 Or are we starting with you with it? Yes, I think so. Why should I? 11 00:01:03,540 --> 00:01:08,920 Before we started, please, the floor is yours. Welcome. Thank you, Eugene. 12 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:16,620 And thanks for this opportunity at difficult times, but at least we can connect through zoo. 13 00:01:16,620 --> 00:01:25,690 I'd be talking about my forthcoming book, The Sun King, but with a special reference to populist nationalism. 14 00:01:25,690 --> 00:01:32,640 Before I start, I would like to just set the scene by saying that the rise of IBS wasn't really. 15 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,130 Twenty seventeen when he was appointed Crown Prince. 16 00:01:36,130 --> 00:01:47,500 It goes back a couple of years before that and I see the rise of Mohammed bin Sanomat as a result of the Arab uprising in 2011, 17 00:01:47,500 --> 00:01:57,430 when Saudi Arabia, specifically the ruling family, felt the pressure off the rising tide of protests in the region. 18 00:01:57,430 --> 00:02:01,330 And it was during the time of King Abdullah when, 19 00:02:01,330 --> 00:02:10,360 as the Saudi leadership looked a little bit lagging behind in terms of its reforms, in terms of its outlook. 20 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:19,000 So and haven't been Salaman, I think was a product of that time when the regime was in fear. 21 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:27,370 And also the Western allies of Saudi Arabia feared the outcome of the Arab uprisings reaching Saudi Arabia. 22 00:02:27,370 --> 00:02:37,660 So the search began to look for a young, energetic and social reformer to become the face of Saudi Arabia. 23 00:02:37,660 --> 00:02:51,370 And all that was meant to come at as a substitute or to mitigate against any kind of political change reaching the kingdom. 24 00:02:51,370 --> 00:02:57,820 And based on that, I think the idea often, having been said man, 25 00:02:57,820 --> 00:03:06,520 springs from a kind of discourse that still adheres to a kind of oriental despotism 26 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:13,810 in the sense that in order to reform the so-called conservative Saudi society, 27 00:03:13,810 --> 00:03:20,470 the so-called lazy Saudis, the so-called religious fanatics in Saudi Arabia, 28 00:03:20,470 --> 00:03:31,930 there is an inevitability of repression and coercion for a new Saudi Arabia to emerge, meaning that a new modern Saudi Arabia. 29 00:03:31,930 --> 00:03:37,660 But without the fundamental pillar of modernity, 30 00:03:37,660 --> 00:03:42,790 and that is political change and moving the political system from an absolute 31 00:03:42,790 --> 00:03:50,980 monarchy to something more and and in line with what was demanded across the region, 32 00:03:50,980 --> 00:03:56,650 across the Arab world. So Mohammed bin Salman was the choice and pemmican. 33 00:03:56,650 --> 00:04:03,760 Some men did a series of reforms and we all know what these reforms are. 34 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:10,090 They touch the fabric of the religious establishment, the religious sphere. 35 00:04:10,090 --> 00:04:24,670 They also move to the social fabric of Saudi society in the sense that he started a series of reforms when women can begin to drive. 36 00:04:24,670 --> 00:04:33,580 And there is an increased visibility of women. There is a fun culture introduced in the form of entertainment, 37 00:04:33,580 --> 00:04:44,680 entertainment and and also economic reforms which were meant to move the state centred, oil based capitalist economy of Saudi Arabia. 38 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,520 That is tied to a global world off of oil. 39 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:57,160 Consumers aim to act as sort of a new liberal economy where the state starts selling some of its assets. 40 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:03,660 And this was all summed up in Vision 2030 at the National Transformation Programme. 41 00:05:03,660 --> 00:05:14,620 However, part of that so-called reform was repression and hence my book subtitle, Reform and Repression in Saudi Arabia. 42 00:05:14,620 --> 00:05:20,560 I do challenge the thought that the idea that in order to reform Saudi Arabia politically, 43 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:26,500 socially, economically and religiously, you need a fair amount of repression and coercion. 44 00:05:26,500 --> 00:05:31,060 And I showed that in addition to repression, which is actually documented. 45 00:05:31,060 --> 00:05:41,200 And I don't want to waste the short time I have discussing the abuse of human rights, the detention campaigns against members of his own family, 46 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:51,340 and let alone the feminists and the activist, the Islamists, the professionals, intellectuals, etc. and even economists got both arrested. 47 00:05:51,340 --> 00:05:56,460 That is well documented. And anybody who was interested in that, they could consult. 48 00:05:56,460 --> 00:06:02,580 Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the UN Council on Human Rights. 49 00:06:02,580 --> 00:06:10,350 What I want to focus on is on the subtle ways of making that kind of package social, 50 00:06:10,350 --> 00:06:16,060 economic, religious reform without political change at work in Saudi Arabia. 51 00:06:16,060 --> 00:06:28,590 And Mohammed bin Satima launched a new kind of nationalism that I would call a hyper nationalist narrative summed up by hashtags on Twitter, 52 00:06:28,590 --> 00:06:36,360 such as Saudi Arabia's great or make Saudi Arabia great or even Saudi Arabia for Saudis. 53 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:41,040 These are the B the signs of this nationalism. 54 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:50,220 But how did we get to here? As I have a side of me that likes history and I would say that and that's the idea 55 00:06:50,220 --> 00:06:57,630 of Saudi nationalism or nationalism in Saudi Arabia was actually deeply in flux. 56 00:06:57,630 --> 00:07:02,490 It wasn't taken for granted. Nationalism itself was contested. 57 00:07:02,490 --> 00:07:09,060 But if we look at Saudi Arabia in a diachronic way from the beginning of the 20th century, 58 00:07:09,060 --> 00:07:14,640 I identify three phases that bring in some kind of nationalism. 59 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:20,610 The first one is religious nationalism that was associated with the Wahabi tradition. 60 00:07:20,610 --> 00:07:29,400 And the Wahhabi tradition was made to Homogenise Society in the name of bringing it to the right Islamic path. 61 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:34,320 And as such, it became the religious nationalism of Saudi Arabia. 62 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:44,310 And we could discuss that in the Q and A. But this period and it was actually at the beginning of the 20th century, up to the 1960s, 63 00:07:44,310 --> 00:07:53,280 where all regions of Saudi Arabia had to be submerged under the banner of becoming true Muslims. 64 00:07:53,280 --> 00:08:06,420 And as in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Algeria, nationalism and its sort of secular in inverted commas and version helped to homogenise the nation. 65 00:08:06,420 --> 00:08:13,680 I think religious nationalism and Wahhabism in particular, what played that role? 66 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:20,610 But it was actually based on a religious dogma, on religious text, on ways of behaving, 67 00:08:20,610 --> 00:08:33,680 ways of conducting your legal affairs that have to be homogenised in Saudi Arabia in order to achieve the unity of Saudis as true Muslims. 68 00:08:33,680 --> 00:08:40,420 So that was the first phase that lasted until the 1950s and late 1960s. 69 00:08:40,420 --> 00:08:49,080 But then something else happened and Saudi Arabia thought that the Islamic utopia was created inside Saudi Arabia. 70 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:58,020 And there is no other ways to continue to Islamise society to unify it under the banner of Wahhabism. 71 00:08:58,020 --> 00:09:10,130 So from the 1960s, because of a particular historical international context, Saudi Arabia shifted to an Islamic identity. 72 00:09:10,130 --> 00:09:17,190 So by Islamism became the pillar of what it means to be a Saudi. 73 00:09:17,190 --> 00:09:20,640 Saudis began to propagate the mission. 74 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:31,230 So once the mission of the Islamic utopia was accomplished inside the country, there was a deliberate attempt to spread it around the world. 75 00:09:31,230 --> 00:09:35,970 And this was encouraged by an international context specifically of the Cold War, 76 00:09:35,970 --> 00:09:47,610 when Saudi Wahhabism became an arm of foreign policy, used and encouraged by countries like the United States, Britain, 77 00:09:47,610 --> 00:10:02,130 and who's so in in the propagation of the Islamic utopia, a counter trend against the challenges of the 60s and 70s with Arab nationalism, 78 00:10:02,130 --> 00:10:08,880 socialism, all the kind of forecaster's off of the Moxa and and others. 79 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:21,150 So Saudi Arabia began to adopt this banned Islamic identity and created institutions whereby the ethos of this spanned Islamism is embedded, 80 00:10:21,150 --> 00:10:28,380 such as Islamic universities, Islamic banking, Islamic youth organisation. 81 00:10:28,380 --> 00:10:40,230 And this was done actually under King Cresson. However, we come to 9/11 and it was the shock that the Saudi sponsored, 82 00:10:40,230 --> 00:10:50,070 Western approved and encouraged type of pan Islamism led to kind of undesirable consequences, 83 00:10:50,070 --> 00:10:56,380 such as the 9/11, the emergence of a global jihad movement. 84 00:10:56,380 --> 00:11:07,630 Became a menace not only to the West, specifically to the U.S. and 9/11 and in other parts of the world, but also inside Saudi Arabia. 85 00:11:07,630 --> 00:11:15,700 Let's remember that Saudi Arabia went through a very, very bad period during the terrorism crisis, 86 00:11:15,700 --> 00:11:26,520 which started in 1979, but continued and became very, very acute between 2003 and 2008 when Saudi cities were targeted. 87 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:39,040 And so that kind of pan Islamic and our identity was gradually being abandoned in order to create a Saudi modern Saudi nation. 88 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:50,830 And today, Hamad bin Salman takes it further by and promoting Saudi Arabia and promoting Saudi nationalism. 89 00:11:50,830 --> 00:12:02,890 And the ingredients of this nationalism are different from that of those that were used in the 20s, 30s and then during the Pan Islamic period. 90 00:12:02,890 --> 00:12:09,490 So Mecca and Medina are no longer the pillars of this new Saudi nationalism. 91 00:12:09,490 --> 00:12:17,380 And there is an attempt to find other sort of secular sites for this nationalism, such as an older, 92 00:12:17,380 --> 00:12:26,980 such as the archaeological digging in terms of tourism and pushing Saudis to appreciate their pre Islamic heritage, their tree. 93 00:12:26,980 --> 00:12:40,330 And they were happy, Prae, the Islamic kind of orientation and making it more focussed on other ingredients. 94 00:12:40,330 --> 00:12:46,210 And of course, like any national narrative, the Saudi one is in a state of flux all the time. 95 00:12:46,210 --> 00:12:53,830 And it is based on forgetting and remembering like old nationalisms around the world. 96 00:12:53,830 --> 00:12:57,970 But we are now in this particular period. 97 00:12:57,970 --> 00:13:05,950 However, this populist nationalism that is encouraged today by the crown prince. 98 00:13:05,950 --> 00:13:11,440 And it has its own supporters. It is like any other nationalism. 99 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,310 It tends to unite people, but also to divide them. 100 00:13:15,310 --> 00:13:19,270 It tends to include and exclude. 101 00:13:19,270 --> 00:13:29,350 And what is really interesting is this populist nationalism goes against the Vision 2030 and and the sort of opening up of 102 00:13:29,350 --> 00:13:39,520 Saudi Arabia to global investment and capital and bringing a new entertainment that is really focussed on Western pop culture. 103 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:45,220 So it why he wants to open up the economy at the same time. 104 00:13:45,220 --> 00:13:50,200 There is this discourse that is directed against immigrants and by immigrants. 105 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:59,170 It's not only that the post oil and or post Second World War to migration to Saudi Arabia. 106 00:13:59,170 --> 00:14:04,990 It is targeting also the people who had been living in Saudi Arabia for decades, 107 00:14:04,990 --> 00:14:13,930 such as people from the caucuses, people from China, people from Thailand who are Muslims living in Mecca. 108 00:14:13,930 --> 00:14:21,820 So this kind of nationalism had its dark side, like we all know, and we have seen that. 109 00:14:21,820 --> 00:14:27,400 And it suffers from certain contradictions, like all nationalist's narrative. 110 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:36,010 First, let me just go through a list of certain kind of evidence to document what I'm talking about. 111 00:14:36,010 --> 00:14:46,960 So there is the empowerment of women and women become the vanguards of this new Saudi national narrative because they are icons of modernity. 112 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:51,460 And at the same time, we see that women are promoted as ambassadors, 113 00:14:51,460 --> 00:14:58,890 as members of the Shura Council, and that is a deliberate attempt to feminised the nation. 114 00:14:58,890 --> 00:15:08,590 But at the same time, the same nationalism doesn't allow Saudi women to give her nationality to her children if she is married to a foreigner. 115 00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:20,590 And there are several cases in the books where women are denied and custody of their children whose fathers are are not Saudis. 116 00:15:20,590 --> 00:15:27,220 And at the same time, there is this sectarian discourse that is used in the war in Yemen. 117 00:15:27,220 --> 00:15:35,800 So they were in Yemen at the beginning to 2015, was projected as a jihad against those infidels 80s. 118 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:42,910 There is also an invocation of genealogies and tribal belonging, especially in the dispute with Qatar. 119 00:15:42,910 --> 00:15:51,940 Big at this one. At the same time, we're supposed to be all Saudis and there is actually a sinister side. 120 00:15:51,940 --> 00:15:56,300 And I should stop as Eugene is making signs that I should. 121 00:15:56,300 --> 00:16:06,950 That is the sinister side of this nationalism that is leading to a discourse about treason and and criminality. 122 00:16:06,950 --> 00:16:11,350 And it is that populist nationalism that led to the murder of Jamal. 123 00:16:11,350 --> 00:16:18,890 How should he? It is the nationalism that promotes and encourages citizens to become policemen. 124 00:16:18,890 --> 00:16:23,240 So the citizen policeman is an outcome of this nationalism. 125 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:32,120 So to just conclude, I want to say that and repression might be obvious and an old regimes use, 126 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:40,640 such as the Saudi one, would use it to promote a new era, a new and a vision. 127 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,340 And it is very obvious you could documented. 128 00:16:43,340 --> 00:16:51,560 But what I'm talking about is populist nationalism is a subtle way of achieving a similar kind of outcome. 129 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:58,570 Thank you for listening. But if I exceeded my limit, on the contrary, 130 00:16:58,570 --> 00:17:06,530 and I thank you for a very concise and brilliant analysis of where Saudi Arabia has come to arrive at this moment. 131 00:17:06,530 --> 00:17:09,800 I particularly like the way in which you period dies. 132 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:18,980 Saudi history, because it so breaks with the way in which the crown prince has spawned a kind of liberal Saudi Arabia before 1979. 133 00:17:18,980 --> 00:17:25,870 A post 1979 clampdown, Saudi Arabia of various others, religion and the new age he wants to usher in. 134 00:17:25,870 --> 00:17:31,970 So it's very good to have a counterpoint to the official periodisation of recent Saudi history. 135 00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:36,920 I'm sure it's a point we're going to come back to in the subsequent Q&A. 136 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:38,830 And I'd like to head dog to bed. 137 00:17:38,830 --> 00:17:45,560 The reason why I'm going to try and keep you both to sort of 10 to 15 minutes each is just because we'll have a little discussion that I want to be. 138 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,310 Time. The questions are already coming in. So listeners, stick with us. 139 00:17:49,310 --> 00:17:57,080 We are definitely getting to your questions. Ben, over to you. I'll try to keep it short so we can do as much discussion as possible. 140 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:03,320 My I think that my experience with Saudi Arabia is certainly much shorter than Dr. Otherways. 141 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,530 I mean, I basically, as a Middle East correspondent, working the Middle East 2013, 142 00:18:06,530 --> 00:18:11,210 my editor said, I think, you know, I think you should try to go to Saudi Arabia. I got my first B. said I went and I didn't. 143 00:18:11,210 --> 00:18:15,710 I spent a lot of time in the Arab world before that, spoke Arabic. And so it wasn't completely new to me. 144 00:18:15,710 --> 00:18:19,100 But in terms of on the ground experience, it was a very new place. 145 00:18:19,100 --> 00:18:25,720 I lived in Egypt and I travelled elsewhere. But Saudi Arabia, even if you were used to the Arab world, was an incredibly different place. 146 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:33,920 And sort of looking back now, you know, from from 2020 to 2013 or to 2015, when Mohammed bin Salman really comes onto the scene, 147 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:41,990 it's I think it's we sometimes forget how dynamic of a period has been and how much kind of accelerated change we've seen on so many fronts. 148 00:18:41,990 --> 00:18:45,500 When I went to Saudi Arabia before 2015, it was really a boring place. 149 00:18:45,500 --> 00:18:50,840 I mean, it was a place that was ruled by an elderly king. There was this idea of sort of this family council that would, you know, 150 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,290 of the senior princes who would divide up the files and they would rule by consensus. 151 00:18:54,290 --> 00:18:59,260 And, you know, in any sort of Saudi expert that you would talk to would tell you, you know, this is the way it is in Saudi Arabia. 152 00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:04,820 This is the way it's going to be. You obviously had deep social conservative Islam and, you know, music and arts and things like that, 153 00:19:04,820 --> 00:19:12,410 which sort of looked down upon and a lot of places socially and also sort of from the official narrative. 154 00:19:12,410 --> 00:19:17,540 Saudi Arabia had no influence in the region, but it was always trying to exercise it behind the scenes, you know, 155 00:19:17,540 --> 00:19:24,260 sort of working behind the curtain and paying people off in various places, but not sort of very activist foreign policy. 156 00:19:24,260 --> 00:19:25,550 And this is kind of the way it was. 157 00:19:25,550 --> 00:19:31,130 So being a journalist going there, it was a very sort of difficult, you know, you would go and there kind of wasn't all that much to see. 158 00:19:31,130 --> 00:19:35,990 It was sometimes hard to figure out what was going on. And then 2015 comes along and then, you know, 159 00:19:35,990 --> 00:19:41,420 we very quickly realised that sort of m.b us was the kind of figure that we don't see in the Middle East very often. 160 00:19:41,420 --> 00:19:47,240 And one one indicator of that is the fact that, you know, here he's been on the scene for five years. 161 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:52,370 He's not the king of Saudi Arabia. And there are all these already multiple books written about him, including my own. 162 00:19:52,370 --> 00:19:55,610 There are kings of Saudi Arabia who never had so many books written about them. 163 00:19:55,610 --> 00:19:58,530 So, you know, it's been a time of dramatic change. 164 00:19:58,530 --> 00:20:05,260 And, you know, and I won't sort of rehash a lot of the things that we brought up about what we've seen, 165 00:20:05,260 --> 00:20:09,050 you know, socially, which we've seen sort of you know, 166 00:20:09,050 --> 00:20:14,480 we've seen that trying to sort of put large parts of conservative society back in the box, whether it's, you know, 167 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:20,120 taking the power to arrest away from the religious police, extensive arrest campaigns against conservative clerics. 168 00:20:20,120 --> 00:20:24,710 There's obviously all the reforms that have had to do with women, you know, things that just may seem very common. 169 00:20:24,710 --> 00:20:29,030 But inside of Saudi Arabia, quite a big deal. Obviously, women driving's have got the most attention. 170 00:20:29,030 --> 00:20:32,780 Also, things like allowing physical education classes for girls, students. 171 00:20:32,780 --> 00:20:37,670 I mean, this is something that you didn't have in Saudi Arabia before. And they're rolling these things out. 172 00:20:37,670 --> 00:20:41,900 You know, arts going from being sort of something that was considered Western and looked down upon and music, 173 00:20:41,900 --> 00:20:47,930 you know, now they're biting, you know, almost any Western musician that they can to come perform in Saudi Arabia. 174 00:20:47,930 --> 00:20:54,390 Politically, it's also been a very dynamic time. You know, you can gauge that by the war in Yemen. 175 00:20:54,390 --> 00:20:59,870 You know, Saudi Arabia had a large military and they spent tens of billions of dollars on weapons from the United States, 176 00:20:59,870 --> 00:21:05,150 the U.K. and other countries. But they have never intervened militarily in that kind of a way. 177 00:21:05,150 --> 00:21:09,080 And we know within a few months, months of coming on the scene when he was still deputy crown prince, 178 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:14,380 you know, Mohammed bin Salman, the stature, the Saudi military to intervene in Yemen and they're still there. 179 00:21:14,380 --> 00:21:16,280 You know, and we've seen all sorts of other you know, 180 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:21,550 we could talk about sort of the standoff with Iran across the region, the various ways the Saudis have done that. 181 00:21:21,550 --> 00:21:26,420 You know, the famous sort of detention and forced resignation of Saad Hariri in Lebanon where I am. 182 00:21:26,420 --> 00:21:30,770 I mean, these are the kinds of things that nobody ever expected from Saudi Arabia before because 183 00:21:30,770 --> 00:21:35,310 they were never that assertive and never that many people would say aggressive. 184 00:21:35,310 --> 00:21:42,290 And I would agree with the subtitle of Mendo Books that I think when you look back over this very quick succession of events, 185 00:21:42,290 --> 00:21:46,610 the two the two themes that really rise up are reform and repression. 186 00:21:46,610 --> 00:21:51,620 On one hand, there has been there have been dramatic changes in terms of social life in Saudi Arabia. 187 00:21:51,620 --> 00:21:56,240 There have been, I would say at this point at least dramatic initiatives to try to reform the economy. 188 00:21:56,240 --> 00:22:02,570 I don't think those have made as much progress, certainly as as Mohammed bin Salman or his his advisers would like. 189 00:22:02,570 --> 00:22:08,310 But there's certainly been a lot of attention put into that. But it's also been a time of great repression. 190 00:22:08,310 --> 00:22:12,540 You know, I write in my book that Saudi Arabia used to be sort of a soft love autocracy. 191 00:22:12,540 --> 00:22:15,800 You know, you could get together with your friends and you could complain about this. 192 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:22,880 And as long as you were sort of plotting protests or building a political party, they would kind of, you know, likely to look the other way. 193 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,180 That's that's definitely changed. Now, people are people are scared. 194 00:22:26,180 --> 00:22:32,900 A lot of the Saudis that I got to know during the time when I was going somewhat freely back and forth to the kingdom, won't talk to me anymore. 195 00:22:32,900 --> 00:22:40,340 When they get together, they put their cell phones in the fridge because they're scared of electronic spying on their conversations you've had. 196 00:22:40,340 --> 00:22:42,770 You know, there's all kinds of swordsmen that I mentioned, the number of them. 197 00:22:42,770 --> 00:22:48,050 You know, there are people who have been basically disappeared from their families because they ran sarcastic Twitter accounts. 198 00:22:48,050 --> 00:22:51,970 I mean, this is something that you didn't have before in Saudi Arabia. And so both. 199 00:22:51,970 --> 00:22:54,340 Those things of reform with reform and repression are. 200 00:22:54,340 --> 00:22:58,420 I think that the two sort of biggest themes that we've seen and then when you start thinking about 201 00:22:58,420 --> 00:23:03,370 Saudi Arabia into the future and when we try to figure out sort of where is Saudi Arabia going, 202 00:23:03,370 --> 00:23:09,670 whereas Clinton someone going, I think it's what is the balance going to be between those two things which, 203 00:23:09,670 --> 00:23:13,150 you know, I don't think that they're mutually exclusive, as many people in the West do. 204 00:23:13,150 --> 00:23:18,100 I think some people think that if you're a former, then you must also believe in democracy and political participation. 205 00:23:18,100 --> 00:23:25,130 I don't think that's the case. I think there's plenty of plenty of examples to the contrary. 206 00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:30,010 And I think in terms of, you know, I'll just I'll just end on this. I think in terms of the future, I think about you know, 207 00:23:30,010 --> 00:23:35,290 I always spoke a lot about the political challenges and what she speaks to see on the political front. 208 00:23:35,290 --> 00:23:40,870 I think the largest I think the biggest challenge is to Mohammed bin Salman and everything that he wants to do, our economic. 209 00:23:40,870 --> 00:23:43,570 I think he faces tremendous economic challenges. 210 00:23:43,570 --> 00:23:51,520 And even though I think he deserves some credit for, I would say, addressing these head on in terms of defining the problem, diagnosing the problem, 211 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:59,830 proposing a number of ways to try to get out this, I think it's very difficult to overestimate the size of the economic challenge to Saudi Arabia. 212 00:23:59,830 --> 00:24:04,200 You know, you have a country, you know, two thirds of its population roughly is under age 30. 213 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:10,620 You have hundreds of thousands of young Saudis entering the job market every year and the government can't pinpoint them anymore. 214 00:24:10,620 --> 00:24:16,860 Historically, the Saudi government has been the largest employer in the kingdom. And there they just don't have the money that they used to do. 215 00:24:16,860 --> 00:24:21,710 And so, you know, you have Vision 2030 and you have all these other efforts to find ways to diversify the economy. 216 00:24:21,710 --> 00:24:29,760 And I think so far, we you know, we I don't think that the efforts had lived up to the size of the challenge. 217 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,180 Certainly, Koban 19 is not going to make that any easier. 218 00:24:33,180 --> 00:24:36,750 But for me, sort of thinking about the future, I mean, I think we'll keep an eye on the reforms. 219 00:24:36,750 --> 00:24:39,750 Where does that go? We keep an eye on the repression. Where does that go? 220 00:24:39,750 --> 00:24:44,970 But for me, I mean, if I were Mohammed bin Salman, the thing that would keep me up at night would be the economy. 221 00:24:44,970 --> 00:24:50,790 Then I'm going to take silence to be incompletion. Yes. We can move on to the discussion. 222 00:24:50,790 --> 00:24:59,850 Well, thank you very much. Again, a very tantalising insight into the kinds of issues that you are exploring at much greater length in your book. 223 00:24:59,850 --> 00:25:06,990 And I'd like to begin the discussion by bringing it back to the frame of analysis that our 224 00:25:06,990 --> 00:25:13,780 first speaker on the unless Randi gave us when he presented us with the dictatorship syndrome. 225 00:25:13,780 --> 00:25:20,380 Coming out of his experience in Egypt. But something that he saw as more of a symptom of our times more broadly. 226 00:25:20,380 --> 00:25:25,360 And I'm not trying to paint you into describing Saudi Arabia today as a dictatorship. 227 00:25:25,360 --> 00:25:30,160 I think that there is an authoritarianism in Saudi Arabia, which is quite distinct. 228 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:37,060 But I'm just wondering whether one element of a square needs analysis could be brought into the discussion at this point, 229 00:25:37,060 --> 00:25:43,510 which is the complicity of society as enablers of authoritarian rule. 230 00:25:43,510 --> 00:25:48,620 And I'm very struck you book then about the fear that you have encountered. 231 00:25:48,620 --> 00:25:53,170 But I think there's a generation divide between those who are openly enthusiastic about a 232 00:25:53,170 --> 00:26:00,340 reform agenda that they see favouring them and their generation amongst the 30 and younger. 233 00:26:00,340 --> 00:26:05,710 And the people that I know who have shown concern or fear tend to be 40 and above. 234 00:26:05,710 --> 00:26:10,860 And so could we talk a little bit about society's role in enabling? 235 00:26:10,860 --> 00:26:20,570 What is of five extraordinary year experiment under MBBS and whether there is a generational divide in that? 236 00:26:20,570 --> 00:26:25,140 But yes, you're absolutely right, Eugene. 237 00:26:25,140 --> 00:26:33,500 I mean, before I let swine in, we know that dictatorship or authoritarian rule doesn't work on its own. 238 00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:41,120 It doesn't descend on people. You need to have enablers and you have to enlist a society. 239 00:26:41,120 --> 00:26:47,880 And do we know from history of Europe in the 20th century or fascism and all that? 240 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:59,310 We know that the certain classes, certain categories of citizens participate in the drive to oppress and repress their own fellow citizens. 241 00:26:59,310 --> 00:27:07,480 But in my book and The Sun King, I have done quite a lot of work on the rising diaspora. 242 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:11,540 And Saudi Arabia is experiencing an incipient diaspora, 243 00:27:11,540 --> 00:27:23,400 which it has not seen for during the effluence off of oil in the modern period, a case not in the 20th century. 244 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:28,490 And yes, we had one Exide here and there leaving going to Egypt. 245 00:27:28,490 --> 00:27:36,380 Even princes left, you know, the free princes left or went to Egypt and Beirut and Iraq and other places. 246 00:27:36,380 --> 00:27:44,600 But what we have seen since 2015 is the rise of this young Saudi diaspora. 247 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:53,810 And this was actually intriguing. If if, as the journalist told us, Mohammed bin Salman appeals to this youth cohort. 248 00:27:53,810 --> 00:28:01,670 He's a young man who who changes his Nokia, dumps the Nokia telephone and gets a smartphone. 249 00:28:01,670 --> 00:28:08,870 And you see the crowds at the entertainment venues. You think everybody is supporting commitments. 250 00:28:08,870 --> 00:28:14,810 But I wasn't trying to find out why are women feminist leaving Saudi Arabia artists? 251 00:28:14,810 --> 00:28:19,760 He created Misc Misk Foundation in order to call the artist. 252 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:34,190 So why are they sleeping? We have young women and now as asylum seekers in Canada and the USA and and the Arab world and as far as Australia. 253 00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:40,790 Also, we have young men who have actually left. But these are people enabling autocracy, if you like. 254 00:28:40,790 --> 00:28:47,420 These are people fleeing it. And I wonder whether we could talk about the role of society in encouraging or enabling the 255 00:28:47,420 --> 00:28:54,440 great enthusiasm that the under 30s are showing for the personality of IBS and the project. 256 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:59,420 Absolutely. You know, you have a society that has gone through the three phases, two phases. 257 00:28:59,420 --> 00:29:05,270 I describe that the religious rationalism and the Islamism. 258 00:29:05,270 --> 00:29:16,610 So in those phases, the person that they agency that is rewarded is the one who can recite the Koran at age 15 or the one who spreads. 259 00:29:16,610 --> 00:29:24,620 They will have a mission abroad and he's given prises. But there is a generational shift, and that's not the work of Mohammed bin Salman. 260 00:29:24,620 --> 00:29:26,390 This shift had occurred. 261 00:29:26,390 --> 00:29:36,030 If you look at what the Saudis were doing in 2011 during the Arab uprising there, connectedness with with their Arab fellows, they. 262 00:29:36,030 --> 00:29:41,420 That the way they were articulating their demands for change. 263 00:29:41,420 --> 00:29:46,100 And you think that becoming a man was just a fait accompli? That came after the event. 264 00:29:46,100 --> 00:29:51,430 After the fact. They are seen in Syria, was prospering before I'm coming inside. 265 00:29:51,430 --> 00:29:57,560 And this cohort had been denied basic human rights, basic entertainment. 266 00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:02,330 And it's so obvious that when you open up, you absorb that. 267 00:30:02,330 --> 00:30:11,330 And what Mohammed bin Salman is doing is either combining the post with its red brick had been stumbling. 268 00:30:11,330 --> 00:30:18,380 There is no brand new. And he's always asking. Used to be self reliant. 269 00:30:18,380 --> 00:30:22,780 The welfare state is shrinking. So, yes, that was the circus. 270 00:30:22,780 --> 00:30:28,310 There was the circus, Hamad bin Salman. And he was the only celebrity in that circus. 271 00:30:28,310 --> 00:30:34,430 And everybody had to consume his persona, his celebrity status. 272 00:30:34,430 --> 00:30:39,440 And at the same time enjoying the fun. But what they really wanted is jobs. 273 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:44,390 I mean, if you look at the literature that is coming from Saudi Arabia, the unemployment level, 274 00:30:44,390 --> 00:30:50,570 the people who are going to universities and top universities in the kingdom, they're worried. 275 00:30:50,570 --> 00:30:57,080 They're not finding jobs, et cetera, as you were talking about, Mohammed bin Salman, the power structure, which is little optimistic. 276 00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:02,840 But let me bring better. You're actually better. Do you have any reflections to add to this? 277 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:08,450 I have one thing I would say for context, I think it's it's almost become sort of a you know, 278 00:31:08,450 --> 00:31:12,740 it's a talking point that you hear all the time, the sort of young Saudis love my husband. Some met older, Saudi, old. 279 00:31:12,740 --> 00:31:16,850 The Saudis are nervous about Mohammed bin Salman. And I think that that's true to a certain extent. 280 00:31:16,850 --> 00:31:22,330 But I think it's very difficult and almost impossible to know how true. 281 00:31:22,330 --> 00:31:25,820 You know, Saudi Arabia, let's let's remember, is a place that does not have a free press. 282 00:31:25,820 --> 00:31:31,790 It has virtually no civil society that's not controlled by the government, which I guess would mean it's not civil society anyway. 283 00:31:31,790 --> 00:31:38,330 No. Sort of realistically independent, in-depth, you know, public opinion polling. 284 00:31:38,330 --> 00:31:43,790 You know, when journalists or think tankers or researchers go pretty, you know, people know what they're supposed to say. 285 00:31:43,790 --> 00:31:45,950 And unless you spend a lot of time there and you get to know people, 286 00:31:45,950 --> 00:31:51,860 they're unlikely to sort of tell you to stray from the official line because they know what the you know, 287 00:31:51,860 --> 00:31:57,980 they know what the consequences of that could be, certainly now after all the repression that we've talked about previously. 288 00:31:57,980 --> 00:32:03,590 So I think I think it's difficult to generalise kind of about who is really onboard and who is not. 289 00:32:03,590 --> 00:32:07,460 I think it's probably also not entirely correct to assume that all young Saudis are liberals. 290 00:32:07,460 --> 00:32:12,200 I'm sure that there are plenty of young conservative Saudis that, yeah, they might think it's cool to go to a movie theatre, 291 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:17,860 but then you ask them all, what do you think about your sister going on a date and then, you know, their blood pressure goes up and they're so not. 292 00:32:17,860 --> 00:32:20,680 So they're no longer as liberal as they thought they were. 293 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:25,310 So I think, you know, I think we have to be very careful about sort of making these sweeping judgements about political opinion. 294 00:32:25,310 --> 00:32:33,620 I think we really just are about public opinion and we just don't know. And that is what makes it difficult to answer your question about sort of how. 295 00:32:33,620 --> 00:32:41,330 If you want to say sort of how culpable are citizens in the authoritarian rule that's happening in Saudi Arabia, 296 00:32:41,330 --> 00:32:45,290 I think the other thing that that it's hard for people in the West to understand 297 00:32:45,290 --> 00:32:48,970 is really the tremendous power that the state has over people in Saudi Arabia. 298 00:32:48,970 --> 00:32:54,080 I mean, if you're in the West, if you're in the United States or the U.K., you live somewhere in Europe and you want to be a dissident. 299 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,680 I mean, what does that even mean? I mean, you say you disagree with your government and maybe you're on Twitter, 300 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:05,300 you have a blog and your friends think you're kind of weird and your family may not invite you to functions, but like, nobody cares all that much. 301 00:33:05,300 --> 00:33:11,000 Saudi Arabia becoming a dissident is a major life commitment. I mean, if you're going to take that step. 302 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:15,590 The state has all kinds of means that they can bring down on your head and that they have increasingly 303 00:33:15,590 --> 00:33:20,880 not hesitated to bring down on your head since the right throughout the rise of Mohammed bin. 304 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:25,940 Descant, this a lot of this has to do with the power that the state has in the economy. 305 00:33:25,940 --> 00:33:31,850 When you look at the number of people who are employed by the state, whether it's in the National Guard, the security services, the bureaucracy, 306 00:33:31,850 --> 00:33:35,670 it's not uncommon for when people sort of get out of line to receive a phone call and say, 307 00:33:35,670 --> 00:33:42,590 you know, how many of your brothers and cousins work for the government? And this happens and people know that, like, well, if I don't get in line, 308 00:33:42,590 --> 00:33:50,050 that can that can fall back on my family and kind of a painful way that's done through tribal structures and more rural or more conservative areas. 309 00:33:50,050 --> 00:33:55,580 That's I mean, there's many different ways that they can do this that falls short of sort of what we usually think of repression, 310 00:33:55,580 --> 00:33:59,390 which means they go out and they arrest you and they throw you in prison, which does happen. 311 00:33:59,390 --> 00:34:03,450 But there's a whole kind of a whole type of repression that happens below that. 312 00:34:03,450 --> 00:34:11,930 And we don't hear much about it. And so that, you know, that that sort of makes it difficult to know who is really on board and who's not. 313 00:34:11,930 --> 00:34:19,970 Because, you know, when the government has that much ability to kind of shape the way that you behave in the way that you behave publicly, 314 00:34:19,970 --> 00:34:26,510 then it sort of forces you to question, you know, when people are on on, you know, on social media, praising the. 315 00:34:26,510 --> 00:34:30,940 The scenario when people are, you know, getting sued by some researcher who said it's going to be of go to Saudi Arabia, 316 00:34:30,940 --> 00:34:34,090 it's just very difficult to know what they saying, what they're simple, what they know they're supposed to be saying. 317 00:34:34,090 --> 00:34:39,130 Are they going to be frank with, you know, in science? I mean, I just think we need to be a little I mean, 318 00:34:39,130 --> 00:34:44,620 there are definitely plenty of plenty of citizens who are sort of playing a role in the rise of hope and some man. 319 00:34:44,620 --> 00:34:48,400 And but I think we also need to recognise the tremendous power that the state 320 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:53,080 has to sort of pull people in and to keep them from going outside of that. 321 00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,160 I mean, another great example of this is you just look at the life of Jamal Khashoggi, 322 00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:04,060 and this was a guy who for decades was sort of the consummate insider. And we all know what happened to him when he decided to become an outsider. 323 00:35:04,060 --> 00:35:09,820 Yeah, no. And I was going to say it's not a country that's celebrated for its public opinion polling, 324 00:35:09,820 --> 00:35:14,160 although it must be said that public opinion polling is not as celebrated as it used to be. 325 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:21,550 I'm going to move on to questions. We have about twenty five minutes left before we keep to our six one hour limit to these webinars. 326 00:35:21,550 --> 00:35:25,720 And the questions are coming in fast and furious. I already see 22 on the Q and A bar, 327 00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:32,800 but I'm going to start with one that comes from Mohamed left with us largely because it's a question that I wanted to put to you, 328 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:37,000 which is another enabler of Mohammed bin Suleiman's rule. 329 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:45,910 Breaking tendencies is iconoclasm has been this age of rule breakers and no one more influential in that than Donald Trump. 330 00:35:45,910 --> 00:35:52,000 It looks like tonight is the night where we will have a final result that will allow Joe Biden to 331 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:57,190 declare his victory in the presidency and at the age of Trump now seem to be coming to an end. 332 00:35:57,190 --> 00:36:03,880 Could you give us some sense of what the impact of that will be on Saudi Arabia and on Mohammed bin Salman? 333 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,920 Will he now have to consider going more by the rules than he did before? 334 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:16,810 Will be no longer have the American support for his way of doing things that seem to facilitate. 335 00:36:16,810 --> 00:36:20,270 And then we might start with you and then I'd like to go to Madali. 336 00:36:20,270 --> 00:36:27,270 Yeah, I mean, I believe as a news reporter, I really have to stay out of stay out of the fortunetelling business, so I won't. 337 00:36:27,270 --> 00:36:33,890 We don't know who's gonna win the election. And so I don't want to sort of go too far in saying what what a President Joe Biden would or would not do. 338 00:36:33,890 --> 00:36:39,770 What we can safely say is that I do think it's safe to say that the Trump administration 339 00:36:39,770 --> 00:36:43,550 and its posture towards Saudi Arabia made things much easier for Mohammed bin Sultan, 340 00:36:43,550 --> 00:36:50,060 that to basically do whatever he wanted to do. And this started barely very early in the administration when Trump basically 341 00:36:50,060 --> 00:36:53,540 surprised everybody by deciding to take his first foreign trip as president. 342 00:36:53,540 --> 00:36:57,950 Not to one of the historic allies, but to go to Saudi Arabia. First time a president has ever done that. 343 00:36:57,950 --> 00:37:03,440 And the Saudis took this as a sign of an investment in the relationship, which it was, 344 00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:07,910 and they turned it into a massive international summit for the United States in the Islamic world. 345 00:37:07,910 --> 00:37:13,220 And so that's kind of where it started off. And then, you know, you also have sort of the relationship between Jared Kushner and Mohammed bin Salman. 346 00:37:13,220 --> 00:37:17,600 There's been a lot written about that. 347 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:27,150 You know, when we look at the election, I mean, it's it's it's hard to imagine that many other American presidents would have been as oppressed, 348 00:37:27,150 --> 00:37:31,680 as protective of the Saudis when it comes to things like arms sales and the Yemen war, 349 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:32,820 where you have, I believe, 350 00:37:32,820 --> 00:37:40,470 to at least two presidential vetoes of legislation that was that was aimed at stopping arms sales to Saudi Arabia based over the war in Yemen. 351 00:37:40,470 --> 00:37:45,360 When you look at the statements that came out of the White House after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, basically saying, yeah, 352 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:49,950 maybe he did it, maybe he didn't, but we don't really care because they're good friends of ours and we really need them. 353 00:37:49,950 --> 00:37:51,210 They're really important for us. 354 00:37:51,210 --> 00:37:57,390 It's really hard to imagine previous presidents, both Republican and Democrat, putting at doing those kinds of actions. 355 00:37:57,390 --> 00:38:04,800 And so and, you know, and there has been a lot Biden has he has gone on the record quite frequently being critical of the Saudis, 356 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:10,650 both as a senator and during the campaign saying, you know, we're not going to give them a free pass that they've had in the past. 357 00:38:10,650 --> 00:38:14,040 We're going to we're we're not going to look the other way at human rights violations. 358 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:22,670 And, you know, of course, it's difficult to know how campaign talk sort of, you know, survives the election and makes its way into policy. 359 00:38:22,670 --> 00:38:30,150 And so I think the big question, if there is a President Joe Biden starting in January, then I think the question is sort of how much will will. 360 00:38:30,150 --> 00:38:34,860 Will that talk be translated into policy and how much will just have been election talk? 361 00:38:34,860 --> 00:38:42,030 You know, this was a, you know, sort of a season when being friends with Saudi Arabia was not probably going to win you a lot of votes. 362 00:38:42,030 --> 00:38:47,310 It doesn't appear to cost the Donald at the same time, it doesn't appear to Donald Trump many votes. 363 00:38:47,310 --> 00:38:52,140 But that's the question that I would be wondering about if we have a change in Washington in January. 364 00:38:52,140 --> 00:38:57,000 But we I'm sure you have plenty to add to that question. But I have a number of questions specifically targeting you. 365 00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:03,000 And if I could, I'd like to move on to those leaking messages, many of our viewers questions as possible. 366 00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:09,180 Mandy, scary. I would like you to explain now that the goals of Vision 2030 are unattainable. 367 00:39:09,180 --> 00:39:14,490 What can replace it? And what are the implications? Well, I think. 368 00:39:14,490 --> 00:39:24,150 I mean, two important events in the last year and that actually derailed Vision 2030. 369 00:39:24,150 --> 00:39:29,400 First one is the constant and continuous decline of oil prices. 370 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:37,880 And the second thing was covered that a year closed Saudi Arabia to even pilgrimage, 371 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:46,190 let alone tourism and entertainment and travel, but also before these two hit hard. 372 00:39:46,190 --> 00:39:54,270 Well, there was a huge amount of pressure, just murder that actually dissuaded many investors to rush to Saudi Arabia, 373 00:39:54,270 --> 00:39:58,580 although the three conferences held after the murder of cash. 374 00:39:58,580 --> 00:40:05,820 We did see some opportunists who want to actually make the most of this narrow 375 00:40:05,820 --> 00:40:12,000 opportunity after others had thrown it out off of the investment conferences. 376 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:21,240 So, yes, a Vision 2030 is still there, but it hasn't materialised in the way Mohammed bin Salman would have liked it to. 377 00:40:21,240 --> 00:40:31,600 And the future thing lies. And really, what what happens to oil prices and how long discovered a problem is going to last? 378 00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:39,780 And in addition to the changing climate around the world and specifically in the U.S., 379 00:40:39,780 --> 00:40:45,450 I mean, Ben talked about a change of leadership, if it happens in the U.S. by January. 380 00:40:45,450 --> 00:40:46,650 Obviously, commitments are made. 381 00:40:46,650 --> 00:40:54,360 It will feel the pressure, not because Biden is going to correct, you know, 70 years of American foreign policy in the Middle East. 382 00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:59,550 But he would make enough noise, for example, that may lead. 383 00:40:59,550 --> 00:41:07,380 And some people hope that the noises that Biden might make would lead to freeing some kind of 384 00:41:07,380 --> 00:41:14,340 prisoners of conscience and opening up the freedom of limited freedom of speech in Saudi Arabia. 385 00:41:14,340 --> 00:41:20,460 But I don't see a major change that Biden is capable of doing. 386 00:41:20,460 --> 00:41:27,240 He's not going to shun Saudi Arabia now. I mean, the whole world economy is in and it is a disaster. 387 00:41:27,240 --> 00:41:33,660 And the last thing that the U.S. wants is to sort of put more pressure on Saudi Arabia. 388 00:41:33,660 --> 00:41:43,640 So let's be realistic. A Democrat in the White House is not going to transform this sort of historical, so-called historical alliance. 389 00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:51,180 And obviously, the U.S. will continue to sell arms to Saudi Arabia, especially if we have a predatory China and Russia. 390 00:41:51,180 --> 00:41:57,390 And what might happen is Saudi Arabia would be put under more pressure to reach a kind of 391 00:41:57,390 --> 00:42:05,100 reconciliation with Iran and that would lower that threshold off of violence in the Arab world. 392 00:42:05,100 --> 00:42:10,780 And they think the competition between the two countries. So I think that is important. 393 00:42:10,780 --> 00:42:16,950 And then there remains the question that if they had normalisation with Israel, 394 00:42:16,950 --> 00:42:31,230 I don't know whether binded will go along the same path it by Trump and put more pressure on Saudi Arabia to to to follow the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan. 395 00:42:31,230 --> 00:42:35,370 Let me stop you there, only to throw another question out to you, this one from your phone. 396 00:42:35,370 --> 00:42:41,220 She would like you to extend all the elements of embassies promoting nationalism that make it populist. 397 00:42:41,220 --> 00:42:47,630 So could you develop that part of your discussion about the populist side of MBBS is nationalism. 398 00:42:47,630 --> 00:42:54,800 It is openness because it it it fires at people very much like what Trump has been doing. 399 00:42:54,800 --> 00:43:00,560 Really, I mean, these hashtags that he uses as Saudi Arabia for Saudis. 400 00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:12,620 And it makes Saudi Arabia great Saudi and all all these are tagged and hashtags that promote this kind of populism. 401 00:43:12,620 --> 00:43:21,710 His appearances and during sort of entertainment venues, when people are supposed to actually watch what is very long, 402 00:43:21,710 --> 00:43:28,070 whether it's a boxing match or a race car, executive is going to host Formula One for the first time. 403 00:43:28,070 --> 00:43:38,810 These are events that are used for this populist nationalism to appeal to the primitive sort of bottom line of people's emotions. 404 00:43:38,810 --> 00:43:42,380 And it's not the kind of nationalism that, you know, 405 00:43:42,380 --> 00:43:48,440 it is similar to what Michelle Affleck was doing in Syria and Iraq that tries to 406 00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:54,810 sort of rewrite the history of the Arab nation or as sort of unnecessary Iraq. 407 00:43:54,810 --> 00:44:04,610 It is a kind of primitive populist nationalism for consumption, instantaneous, constant consumption, and social media helps with that. 408 00:44:04,610 --> 00:44:15,680 And so I don't see this rigid nationalism of the 1960s. I see a different kind of nationalism that is in tune with the needs of its own transmission, 409 00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:24,740 that works on social media, that works on television, that works in this kind of Leive venues. 410 00:44:24,740 --> 00:44:29,840 And it lacks it lacks a serious theorise mission and is very, very contested. 411 00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:39,200 The people who can talk, they still can't switch. And I interviewed people who were of the older generation, but they're not very old. 412 00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:45,770 They're still in their 40s and 50s. And they were saying, like, you know, I remember when I was a child at school, 413 00:44:45,770 --> 00:44:56,120 I had to chant Islamic recitations and an al Qaeda to promote that Omar, that Islamic Ummah, and promote Palestine and Jerusalem. 414 00:44:56,120 --> 00:45:00,560 And now I'm expected to promote a lorella order. 415 00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:11,190 And it is not easy for people to switch from that kind of pan Islamic outlook of the Saudis are the vanguards will go and spread Islam. 416 00:45:11,190 --> 00:45:16,610 They're not the ones we consume. A pop culture inside the country. 417 00:45:16,610 --> 00:45:23,060 And this is the kind of populism that is actually very, very crude and basic. 418 00:45:23,060 --> 00:45:29,000 Thank you. But it was a power. It has the power to mobilise, as we've seen. 419 00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:37,200 I've got a couple of questions, Electra. But your way, Ben. First off from Dr. Sarah Rashidi. 420 00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:41,340 Who are Mohammed bin Salmond's rivals in Saudi Arabia today? 421 00:45:41,340 --> 00:45:47,200 And do they still present a credible challenge after the sojourn in the Ritz Carlton? 422 00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:52,870 I mean, I I think from what from what we know, I don't think he has any serious rivals to speak of. 423 00:45:52,870 --> 00:45:56,970 I mean, you could say, you know, Mohammed bin Nayef was was a rival for a period. 424 00:45:56,970 --> 00:45:59,500 You know, maybe it might have been Abdullah was a rival for a period. I mean, 425 00:45:59,500 --> 00:46:03,130 these were just because these were other people who were kind of in senior positions 426 00:46:03,130 --> 00:46:07,840 in the royal family and had and had significant government positions as well. 427 00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:16,450 But they were all, you know, these these people were all sufficiently sort of disarmed, isolated, in some cases incarcerated fairly early in his rise. 428 00:46:16,450 --> 00:46:20,040 And I just you know, I mean, I don't want to say that I think it's over for Mohammed bin Salman. 429 00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:25,570 But if there is going to be a significant challenge, it's very hard to see where it would come from now. 430 00:46:25,570 --> 00:46:31,000 Saudi Arabia's not, you know, certainly has no history of sort of military coups or anything like that. 431 00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:32,710 It's it's very difficult to see. 432 00:46:32,710 --> 00:46:40,480 I mean, the fact that he has managed during his rise to really restructure how power is exercised and bring all the levers into his own hands. 433 00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:46,490 I think from the National Guard to the intelligence services, the the interior ministry, the military, 434 00:46:46,490 --> 00:46:52,540 which is very hard to see that even if there are other prend, there certainly are other princes who are not happy with the way this has happened. 435 00:46:52,540 --> 00:46:59,650 It's very hard to see where they're going to get the resources to pose a significant challenge to him and building on that. 436 00:46:59,650 --> 00:47:07,330 I mean, do you foresee there being a flashpoint for opposition in the long run over the Saudi intervention in Yemen? 437 00:47:07,330 --> 00:47:10,690 Does this fit into the narrative populist nationalism? 438 00:47:10,690 --> 00:47:15,420 Are there comparisons to be made between what Saudi Arabia is going through and what's going on in the Vietnam War? 439 00:47:15,420 --> 00:47:24,630 By extension, could there be a kind of movement against the war which would weigh down MBBS and his popularity? 440 00:47:24,630 --> 00:47:29,320 You want me to ask him? Because usually I'd love to hear from you. 441 00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:37,120 Yeah, I read that at the beginning. The war of Yemen was probably that they had flagship often come up and said men in inverted commas, 442 00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:44,200 because it is that context that would have promoted this populist nationalism that we are attacked. 443 00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:51,100 But you have to realise that at it in Saudi Arabia, Yemen is a very long way. 444 00:47:51,100 --> 00:48:07,330 And it was not felt. The war in Riyadh make a jet that the map of the eastern province as much as it would have had had there been a close proximity. 445 00:48:07,330 --> 00:48:17,150 But it did become real when the hosting missiles started arriving in Riyadh and inject that and also the oil fields where at bomb. 446 00:48:17,150 --> 00:48:27,820 And it did create that momentum and that sort of moment where we are targeted by the foreign enemy. 447 00:48:27,820 --> 00:48:36,170 And there was a lot of solidarity. But it's the whole point of the war of Yemen is not discussed. 448 00:48:36,170 --> 00:48:42,850 You cannot criticise the war. You do not know even what's going on at the borders. 449 00:48:42,850 --> 00:48:45,950 And you have to look at that sort of area. 450 00:48:45,950 --> 00:48:53,230 As strange as that, all of that and what has happened in it, there are lots of exiles will have to come out of that area. 451 00:48:53,230 --> 00:48:58,990 And that is a shift in the population composition of these places. 452 00:48:58,990 --> 00:49:03,880 And many, many of the local inhabitants had been moved to the north. 453 00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,490 And it actually started during that. 454 00:49:06,490 --> 00:49:15,340 King Abdullah, when there was an incident with that smiley community and also that residents there, the people who live in these areas, 455 00:49:15,340 --> 00:49:25,100 are very, very upset that their that their area is flooded by foreign soldiers back then is Jordanians, Egyptians, generals. 456 00:49:25,100 --> 00:49:31,940 And they they don't feel secure being there. They they told me in these interviews that, you know, 457 00:49:31,940 --> 00:49:38,830 they don't want their daughters to go in the streets because they're foreign soldiers in these cities on the border. 458 00:49:38,830 --> 00:49:44,770 So they were in Yemen is it was important for the populist nationalism. 459 00:49:44,770 --> 00:49:55,000 And it was used quite a lot to the extent of sending women journalists with the army, in addition to religious scholars, to promote Saudi nationalism. 460 00:49:55,000 --> 00:50:03,440 And you see women in military attire on top of tanks and reporting, and I'm talking to the soldiers. 461 00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:07,720 So this is the popular populist nationalism I'm talking about. And in addition, 462 00:50:07,720 --> 00:50:13,960 you get a tradition of religious scholar who would go to the to the front and 463 00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:18,660 to and fro and mobilise the soldiers on the basis that they are fighting, 464 00:50:18,660 --> 00:50:22,770 as you had against against that Zaidi who. 465 00:50:22,770 --> 00:50:25,210 So I think that all these contradictions are there, 466 00:50:25,210 --> 00:50:35,020 but it's very difficult to see how the war on Yemen would precipitate any kind of agitations inside the country first. 467 00:50:35,020 --> 00:50:39,380 People can't actually give their opinion about the war. 468 00:50:39,380 --> 00:50:44,690 Thank you both very Ben, I'm sure you could answer that one, but I've got about another one your way to keep the questions moving. 469 00:50:44,690 --> 00:50:51,030 We have from Diana Galai ever a question about Saudi Russian relations. 470 00:50:51,030 --> 00:51:00,770 And what do you see the future of relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, given the close ties between Putin and MVS? 471 00:51:00,770 --> 00:51:04,010 Yeah, I'm afraid I don't. Probably very sophisticated answer for that. 472 00:51:04,010 --> 00:51:11,360 I mean, I the only context I can provide is that he has has has made an effort to sort of diversify Saudi Arabia's foreign relations. 473 00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:15,950 And this is includes on high profile trips to China, the king himself actually went to Russia, 474 00:51:15,950 --> 00:51:21,290 which was a huge you know, that was that was something that had not happened for many, many decades. 475 00:51:21,290 --> 00:51:25,440 Where it goes in the future, I don't know. I mean, you know what we'll try to predict? 476 00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:29,690 But I think that MVS has sort of seen I think part of it has to do with you sort 477 00:51:29,690 --> 00:51:34,730 of diversifying away from just being so dependent on the United States in the UK. 478 00:51:34,730 --> 00:51:40,190 And I also think it has to do with him. You know, this perhaps plays into the sort of nationalism idea. 479 00:51:40,190 --> 00:51:47,700 But I think he also wants Saudi Arabia to be a great power. He you know, he's very they're very excited this year to get the presidency of the G20. 480 00:51:47,700 --> 00:51:52,580 And I think that he believes, as you know, for Saudi Arabia to play what he believes is their proper role in the world, 481 00:51:52,580 --> 00:51:56,750 they need to have relations with these other these other large powers where it goes in the future. 482 00:51:56,750 --> 00:52:03,690 I don't know. I mean, certainly the oil war didn't particularly help. You know, the price war earlier this year certainly didn't help relations. 483 00:52:03,690 --> 00:52:07,640 But, you know, we have to wait and see where it goes. Thank you, Ben. 484 00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:11,780 Look, I'm going to confess at this point to our viewers that I'm a bit of an interloper tonight 485 00:52:11,780 --> 00:52:16,850 as both Ben and Maddow we know this event was organised by my colleague Osama Husaini, 486 00:52:16,850 --> 00:52:22,760 and he was meant to be the moderator and his. Technology has failed him until this moment. 487 00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:28,370 I can see his face now on the screen and actually I've had a number of the questions and the question bar coming from Osama. 488 00:52:28,370 --> 00:52:35,260 So better late than never. Osama, could I invite you to ask one of your questions to bring the evening to a close? 489 00:52:35,260 --> 00:52:41,200 Thank you very much, Eugene, and I apologise to everyone, I spent a great deal of time on social media saying that I would be hosting this event. 490 00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:46,440 So it is a bit of an embarrassment for me that I'm showing up so late to my own sort of event. 491 00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:52,180 But I'm I've really been delighted to be able to sort of listen to both of you learn a great deal. 492 00:52:52,180 --> 00:53:01,030 I'm really looking forward to midways book, and I have had a wonderful experience reading Ben's book probably on four or five months ago now. 493 00:53:01,030 --> 00:53:09,790 But in a sense, you know, my my question, I think, or some of my questions have already been answered. 494 00:53:09,790 --> 00:53:17,260 You know, my my major sort of question was relating to the possibility that something would actually happen with respect to them and how shocked you. 495 00:53:17,260 --> 00:53:20,440 And I think that that has kind of been addressed that. 496 00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:31,000 And I think I can recognise but always point that there is not really much in it for a Biden presidency to try and sort of go for that. 497 00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:40,660 Another dimension which I'm curious about is what a potential Biden presidency would do with respect to the relationship with Israel. 498 00:53:40,660 --> 00:53:46,390 As you well know, fairly recently, the embassy was moved to Jerusalem. 499 00:53:46,390 --> 00:53:56,950 Is there a chance that Biden will try to reset that relationship somewhat with Netanyahu by trying to move the embassy away from it? 500 00:53:56,950 --> 00:54:01,290 Was that now athletic company? 501 00:54:01,290 --> 00:54:11,100 This is a question for either one of you, it's not here, but I would be interested to hear Benton's response, perhaps as the American. 502 00:54:11,100 --> 00:54:17,460 Yeah. I mean I mean, I certainly can't predict what a potential vice and Biden as president would do. 503 00:54:17,460 --> 00:54:23,490 I don't see any reason to. I mean, I don't know if a future administration would pursue normalisation, 504 00:54:23,490 --> 00:54:27,750 new normalisation deals kind of as assertively as the Trump administration has. 505 00:54:27,750 --> 00:54:31,560 I certainly have no reason to think that a different administration would look 506 00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:35,150 down on these deals or try to undo them or would not even welcome further deals. 507 00:54:35,150 --> 00:54:39,510 You know, I mean, if Saudi Arabia decided to to normalise with Israel, 508 00:54:39,510 --> 00:54:46,810 I don't think the administration is going to condemn that or, you know, that's something that I think they would welcome as well. 509 00:54:46,810 --> 00:54:53,180 So I don't I don't know if I can say much more. You know, how he would interact in the what we would have to wait and see. 510 00:54:53,180 --> 00:55:00,490 And I didn't. Madali, you wanted to add anything to that? We have a. 511 00:55:00,490 --> 00:55:14,380 I think the the pressure would probably be less on embryos to rush to normalisation along the lines of the one with the UAE and Bahrain and Sudan. 512 00:55:14,380 --> 00:55:24,580 So I think that someone will be relieved if Biden doesn't put pressure because he could maintain secret under the table relations with Israel, 513 00:55:24,580 --> 00:55:30,490 which had been going on for a long time now, especially if the target is Iran. 514 00:55:30,490 --> 00:55:34,810 They share intelligence. They there's a transfer of technology. 515 00:55:34,810 --> 00:55:40,730 And he prefers to keep it that way. But I don't think that's how much of this man is going to rush. 516 00:55:40,730 --> 00:55:47,080 And I'll have the Israeli flag in Riyadh just to sort of move fast. 517 00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:56,920 I don't think I think he's lost. He would be counting his loss and he gains more by by keeping the relationship under the table. 518 00:55:56,920 --> 00:56:09,070 There's no rush to do anything about that. So he might face some pressure with regard to the repression that is taking place at home. 519 00:56:09,070 --> 00:56:16,000 And we we still don't know what the advisers to Trump, to Biden, sorry. 520 00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:23,920 Should he become the president in a couple of months and whether they will revive their interest? 521 00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:33,980 Are those those the arms of the U.S. state, such as the CIA or other the Foreign Office, 522 00:56:33,980 --> 00:56:39,460 or whether they would revise and interpret their interest in Mohammed bin Nayef, 523 00:56:39,460 --> 00:56:49,480 although Mohammed bin Nayef seems to me as redundant now simply because of his cooperation in the war on terror. 524 00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:57,370 He had medals from the CIA, etc. And as Europe now is going through a wave of terrorism, 525 00:56:57,370 --> 00:57:05,320 I don't know how that is going to develop and whether the U.S. will be the next or coming target. 526 00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:11,470 And how would Biden react to that? It is it we have to wait and see. 527 00:57:11,470 --> 00:57:20,770 It's very difficult to predict. I mean, in some sense, the Biden presidency could be a boon to someone, despite all the ways in which I mean, 528 00:57:20,770 --> 00:57:23,560 with respect to Israel specifically, I think that's what you're suggesting, 529 00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:28,120 that you'd actually relieve some of the pressure of having to maintain that 530 00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:31,840 cordial relationship with the Trumps and Jared Kushner and all the rest of them. 531 00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:41,050 I think at the same time, the sort of other aspects of that relationship that you outlined can create 532 00:57:41,050 --> 00:57:45,490 other kinds of pressures that perhaps weren't present under a Trump presidency. 533 00:57:45,490 --> 00:57:50,860 I I'm really conscious. We have literally one minute left. 534 00:57:50,860 --> 00:57:56,830 I'm very curious about one particular question, which either you can take and I but if you can gives me the signal. 535 00:57:56,830 --> 00:58:00,640 I would go on with this question, which is perfect. Thank you. 536 00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:06,700 And basically, this is about the relationship with Abu Dhabi and specifically with MDA. 537 00:58:06,700 --> 00:58:11,920 So there is. Jocie asks. Much has been made of M.B said in Abu Dhabi being a mentor. 538 00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:13,000 Yes, indeed. 539 00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:23,380 Many think that MBA and Visa is the brains behind IBS and B.S. is sort of rise to this crude populist brand of populism also manifest in the UAE. 540 00:58:23,380 --> 00:58:28,260 And if so, how do the two relate to each other, particularly in the context of the war in Yemen? 541 00:58:28,260 --> 00:58:34,720 Yeah, well, conciliators, populist nationalism is also elsewhere in the region. 542 00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:42,310 Qatar and especially under the sanctions of the Saudis and Moroccans. 543 00:58:42,310 --> 00:58:50,830 But I think I mean, your question reminds me of a conversation I had with an Emirati academic a long time ago. 544 00:58:50,830 --> 00:58:57,820 And I asked him, you know, what is it for the UAE to promote Hamad bin Salman? 545 00:58:57,820 --> 00:59:07,060 And eventually he's going to be a competitor. I mean, the Saudi economically in terms of the Saudi market, in terms of capabilities. 546 00:59:07,060 --> 00:59:09,400 Yes. The UAE is important, 547 00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:18,250 but it is a small country in the grand scheme of things and doesn't have the historical sort of symbolic capital that that Saudi Arabia has. 548 00:59:18,250 --> 00:59:23,860 And he said to me, it is basically the Arab uprisings. 549 00:59:23,860 --> 00:59:30,370 And if the Arab uprisings reach Saudi Arabia, then they become a danger in the UAE. 550 00:59:30,370 --> 00:59:40,390 Right. And if we wanted to defeat well, there were happy traditions that threatens our way of life in Dubai and elsewhere. 551 00:59:40,390 --> 00:59:48,340 We have to defeat it in Saudi Arabia, hands the interest off and present in MBBS. 552 00:59:48,340 --> 00:59:53,620 And if MBBS continues with his social reforms. 553 00:59:53,620 --> 00:59:54,490 Thank you very much. 554 00:59:54,490 --> 01:00:03,140 I mean, that really is an interesting perspective because it's looking at the Wahhabi dimension as being a major concern for NBC specifically. 555 01:00:03,140 --> 01:00:10,840 And that's not an analysis that you've come across very often. I'm going to very sadly have to bring things to a swift conclusion at this point. 556 01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:18,040 I'd like to extend my thanks to Madobe and Ben for really giving us a lot of food for thought. 557 01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:24,430 And I hope encouraging many of us to go out and read their books or in the case of Madobe. 558 01:00:24,430 --> 01:00:30,100 Her forthcoming book. She edited a volume, of course, on Solomon's legacy recently. 559 01:00:30,100 --> 01:00:37,960 And I'd also like to extend a very warm thanks to Eugene for really rescuing this sort of podcast. 560 01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:42,100 When my system crashed on me earlier this evening. 561 01:00:42,100 --> 01:00:46,930 But you've already really been sort of wonderful audience as well, asking many questions. 562 01:00:46,930 --> 01:00:49,760 We're very sorry not to have been able to go through all of them, 563 01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:55,660 but I'm I'm sure there will be future opportunities in which we can have more discussions 564 01:00:55,660 --> 01:01:00,970 with some of our own guests and on some of the same sorts of themes going forward. 565 01:01:00,970 --> 01:01:05,590 So with that, I'd like to again, thank you all for joining us. 566 01:01:05,590 --> 01:01:09,790 Thank the panellists and look forward to seeing you in the near future. Take care. 567 01:01:09,790 --> 01:01:19,556 But when.