1 00:00:03,610 --> 00:00:09,330 Well, good evening and welcome to the Middle East centre in Oxford. 2 00:00:09,330 --> 00:00:13,590 My name is Eugene Rogan and I'm the director of the Middle East Centre. 3 00:00:13,590 --> 00:00:23,190 And it's my great pleasure to welcome you to the second of our webinars around the theme of the Arab uprisings one decade on. 4 00:00:23,190 --> 00:00:32,070 This week, we'll be examining the ongoing process of challenging and contesting government and its accountability in two cases where popular 5 00:00:32,070 --> 00:00:40,320 demonstrations seem to be motivated as much by a challenge to the sectarian order as it is to mismanagement or bad government. 6 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:45,570 We'll be looking at Lebanon and Iraq. And it's my great pleasure to be welcoming back to the Middle East centre. 7 00:00:45,570 --> 00:00:50,250 Two old friends from Beirut. We'll be welcoming. Maha Yahya. 8 00:00:50,250 --> 00:00:52,350 Maha is the director of the Malcolm H. 9 00:00:52,350 --> 00:01:03,750 Curr Centre, the Carnegie Institute in Beirut, where she has been working on the whole host of political issues spanning the political violence. 10 00:01:03,750 --> 00:01:07,800 Identity politics, pluralism, development and social justice. 11 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,090 She's the author of a number of works, but one really stands out in her list, 12 00:01:12,090 --> 00:01:21,360 which is The Summer of our Discontent Sex and Citizen in Lebanon and Iraq, which was published in June of twenty seventeen. 13 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,360 Very much anticipating tonight's discussion. 14 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:35,860 Speaking on Iraq, we'll be welcoming Maysoon Pachachi, who is a London based filmmaker of Iraqi origin who was educated in Iraq, the UK and the USA. 15 00:01:35,860 --> 00:01:40,120 She studied filmmaking at the London Film School where she took her masters. 16 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:45,280 And since 1994, she's been an independent documentary filmmaker. 17 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:52,510 She's just completed a fiction feature film called Our River Our Sky. 18 00:01:52,510 --> 00:01:58,410 In Arabic, the title is Kushima Macu. Which was shot in Iraq in twenty nineteen. 19 00:01:58,410 --> 00:02:03,450 And even before the film was shot, it was a PRISE winner. It had taken the IWC. 20 00:02:03,450 --> 00:02:11,280 Gulf Filmmaker Award for the script for the film at the Dubai International Film Festival in December of 2012. 21 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,890 So we're very excited to see our river, our sky in the cinemas soon. 22 00:02:15,890 --> 00:02:24,990 But tonight, we're delighted to be welcoming my soon to hear her firsthand experience of the thinking between the 23 00:02:24,990 --> 00:02:30,520 different regions of Iraq in the months leading up to the outbreak of the protest movements there. 24 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:38,530 But to get us started tonight, I would like to begin by inviting mahouts. Hutson's starts with her reflections on Lebanon long overdue. 25 00:02:38,530 --> 00:02:43,720 Good evening, everyone. And Eugene, thank you for having me on this panel with my son in particular. 26 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:49,570 It's great to see you first. Going to virtually. And it's great to join this discussion tonight. 27 00:02:49,570 --> 00:02:56,200 I will start with a few comments on Lebanon and then maybe later we can get into the parallels between Lebanon and Iraq. 28 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:04,840 Lebanon, as you all know, is going through a perfect or received a perfect storm of crises. 29 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:11,770 It is facing an economic meltdown, political deadlock and now a health crisis. 30 00:03:11,770 --> 00:03:16,630 Four out of the five key pillars of the country are collapsing. 31 00:03:16,630 --> 00:03:23,590 First, the Politiken, if you want, or the social contract that has ruled the country since independence, 32 00:03:23,590 --> 00:03:27,790 and then more particularly after the end of the civil war in the 1990s, 33 00:03:27,790 --> 00:03:36,370 is under tremendous strain and is being questioned by the populace, but still by the leadership. 34 00:03:36,370 --> 00:03:44,050 The merchant public model, a economic model that relied on banking and services, as you know, 35 00:03:44,050 --> 00:03:52,420 the economic model for Lebanon is now collapsing and there is a search for a new economic model for country, for the country. 36 00:03:52,420 --> 00:03:58,990 It is one that relies on imports. The country imports close to 80 percent of what it consumes. 37 00:03:58,990 --> 00:04:01,330 The third pillar is its middle class. 38 00:04:01,330 --> 00:04:11,830 The country has always prided itself on a well-educated, very sophisticated middle class of doctors, engineers, you name it. 39 00:04:11,830 --> 00:04:19,900 It's basically innovative and an entrepreneurial class with the economic crisis that began last year in October. 40 00:04:19,900 --> 00:04:25,750 Twenty nineteen. And as most of you know, the protests started in Lebanon, 41 00:04:25,750 --> 00:04:31,480 ostensibly because of the what's app is supposed levy on what's out there will go to other things, 42 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:37,220 six cents per month to the telephone bill and all [INAUDIBLE] broke loose. 43 00:04:37,220 --> 00:04:41,020 And I think people's sense of time was enough is enough. 44 00:04:41,020 --> 00:04:48,820 I mean, you're looking for ways to raise money from a population that's already exhausted and impoverished. 45 00:04:48,820 --> 00:04:56,200 With the political protests came the economic crisis, which had been brewing for a very long time today. 46 00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:03,340 Just to give a couple of figures, the currency has lost close to 70 or 80 percent of its value. 47 00:05:03,340 --> 00:05:07,640 The inflation is at one hundred, one hundred and fifty percent. 48 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:12,340 I can't recall the price of basic goods has is skyrocketing. 49 00:05:12,340 --> 00:05:18,970 It's triple or quadruple and even more. And therefore, things like rice and flour. 50 00:05:18,970 --> 00:05:27,670 Basically, the country really is has become unaffordable in the process with the loss of the value of the currency. 51 00:05:27,670 --> 00:05:31,690 The middle class, which I come back to now, have lost their pensions. 52 00:05:31,690 --> 00:05:38,980 They've lost their faith savings and they've lost the value of their actual, you know, incomes right now. 53 00:05:38,980 --> 00:05:47,140 So just to give a sense, a university, an assistant professor at the American University in Beirut used to make sixty six thousand 54 00:05:47,140 --> 00:05:56,170 dollars per year and now makes around 800 dollars per month in the equivalent of Lebanese lira. 55 00:05:56,170 --> 00:06:02,990 And this also trickles down to the security sector pension years. 56 00:06:02,990 --> 00:06:11,080 I mean, I was talking to a judge who was probably one of the most decent judges in this country, spent his lifetime in service of this country, 57 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:20,380 and now he's talking about literally living hand to mouth because their pension is gone and his savings are locked up in the banks. 58 00:06:20,380 --> 00:06:27,070 He can't access them because of capital controls, because, I mean, I won't get into the details of on the economic front. 59 00:06:27,070 --> 00:06:31,660 But we can have this in the Q&A session. So the middle class is disappearing. 60 00:06:31,660 --> 00:06:38,260 Hundreds of Lebanese, particularly the young and the talented doctors, are leaving by the drawers. 61 00:06:38,260 --> 00:06:46,240 Their health infrastructure actually is in severe crisis, which is a real problem when we're also having to deal with a pandemic. 62 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:51,280 Today, the country is under a 24 hour curfew. 63 00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:59,770 People are meant to stay at home. And yet, for the last three days, there have been significant protests in Tripoli, Lebanon's second largest city. 64 00:06:59,770 --> 00:07:03,580 And we can talk about the roots of that protest again in the Q&A. 65 00:07:03,580 --> 00:07:14,240 But it's it's part and parcel of the widespread grievances that Lebanese society is facing or is feeling for the fourth and fifth pillars. 66 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,660 The fourth is freedoms, fundamental freedoms. 67 00:07:16,660 --> 00:07:25,900 This country has always prided itself on being the place where one can say what they want anytime, time they want. 68 00:07:25,900 --> 00:07:35,830 In the 50s and 60s and 70s, you know this, Eugene, it became the place where all the exiles from around the region, from their space. 69 00:07:35,830 --> 00:07:40,540 It is a hub for intellectual. Cultural and artistic activities. 70 00:07:40,540 --> 00:07:47,110 See it. Music writers, journalists, everyone used to eat to be here after the end of the Civil War. 71 00:07:47,110 --> 00:07:56,170 It kinda started regaining some of this. But now, you know, that sense of freedom is being slowly conscripted. 72 00:07:56,170 --> 00:08:02,020 We're seeing increasing clampdown on social media and on press freedoms. 73 00:08:02,020 --> 00:08:09,670 The final pillar is the security. The Lebanese army and the internal security services. 74 00:08:09,670 --> 00:08:15,700 Now, on the one hand, they are facing the same kind of pressure on their incomes. 75 00:08:15,700 --> 00:08:23,900 So we're starting to hear from members of the security services saying if I'm going to be earning the equivalent of 100 dollars a month for, 76 00:08:23,900 --> 00:08:28,690 you know, and I need to feed my family, why should I put myself on the line of fire? 77 00:08:28,690 --> 00:08:33,070 And yet, at the same time, the demand for the security services has ever been greater. 78 00:08:33,070 --> 00:08:41,800 We're seeing great. I mean, there were live bullets being shot, being used and rubber bullets in Tripoli last night and the night before. 79 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:49,720 Politicians are now calling for more and more security services for them to take over the streets, so to speak. 80 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:56,260 Now, just before I stop, I just want to say a few words about who's really been protesting. 81 00:08:56,260 --> 00:09:02,830 The demands that we initiated in 2019 to bring down the regime were really an indictment of 82 00:09:02,830 --> 00:09:09,550 the catastrophic political and economic mismanagement of the country by its political class. 83 00:09:09,550 --> 00:09:16,000 This is a political class that is composed mainly of four time militia leaders who came to power 84 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:22,180 after the end of the civil war in 1990 and moved into state institutions and the process. 85 00:09:22,180 --> 00:09:29,380 They turned state institutions and to or they treated state institutions does a kind of for bounty. 86 00:09:29,380 --> 00:09:36,130 Now, the profound abuse of the political system by this leadership was significant. 87 00:09:36,130 --> 00:09:46,630 I'll just quote one finger. The World Bank in 2016 estimates that nine percent of gross domestic product in Lebanon is lost to patronage politics. 88 00:09:46,630 --> 00:09:56,320 So the protest in itself began as a revolt against the system and the complete kind of collapse of trust in all institutions. 89 00:09:56,320 --> 00:10:00,160 And you see this and a lot of the polls that have happened, whether it's state institutions, 90 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:05,410 political parties, the banking sector, professional associations, et cetera. 91 00:10:05,410 --> 00:10:10,360 And then the sense, which was remarkable, that we started to see it in 2019 and October 20, 92 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:16,000 19 of the US versus them where the US was no longer about sect, 93 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:26,290 ethnicity, class or gender to address the topic of today, but rather it was about a corrupt political class versus the rest of the country. 94 00:10:26,290 --> 00:10:35,820 And here I think there was this growing realisation or acceptance by a broad cross-section of the population that these sectarian politics in Lebanon, 95 00:10:35,820 --> 00:10:40,150 that there isn't a single community that has genuinely gained out of it, and that, 96 00:10:40,150 --> 00:10:45,820 in fact, it's the political class that has won at the expense of Lebanese citizens. 97 00:10:45,820 --> 00:10:53,020 But at the same time, this moment of national awakening was also about ending a lot of social norms in the country. 98 00:10:53,020 --> 00:11:01,750 What we saw was an uprising against a factory worker system that maintains unequal relationships amongst citizens, particularly women. 99 00:11:01,750 --> 00:11:06,790 Lebanese women were really at the forefront of demonstrations. They continued to mobilise. 100 00:11:06,790 --> 00:11:12,940 They were forming lines of defence between protesters and security services, organising events, 101 00:11:12,940 --> 00:11:18,160 trying to decrease sectarian tensions when they emerged between neighbourhoods, cetera, 102 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:25,280 and they were demanding equal rights and the uplifting of the personal status laws of sectarian communities, 103 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:31,420 a kind of overhaul of the system and the move to a more secular and more civic system. 104 00:11:31,420 --> 00:11:40,960 But the protest movement was also about generations. A large number of high school and university students were participating in the protest. 105 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,120 And we I mean, there were many interviews with them. 106 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:52,390 And what's remarkable is to see these young men and women of this country talking about we don't care about losing a year from our education. 107 00:11:52,390 --> 00:11:57,070 We're actually fighting for our future. We don't want to leave. 108 00:11:57,070 --> 00:12:01,050 As many of you know, Lebanon has a history of emigration there. 109 00:12:01,050 --> 00:12:06,790 MONTREUIL As we don't want to leave. We want to stay in Lebanon. We don't want to be forced to emigrate. 110 00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:09,460 We want to stay with our family and friends. 111 00:12:09,460 --> 00:12:15,820 I think also this protest that we saw above, the systematic exclusion of the country's impoverished population, 112 00:12:15,820 --> 00:12:21,670 whether they lived in Lebanon's geographic bursaries or on the edges of major towns and cities, 113 00:12:21,670 --> 00:12:27,370 we saw populations really protesting their continued marginalisation from political and 114 00:12:27,370 --> 00:12:32,380 economic life in a country that has centralised everything historically in the capital, 115 00:12:32,380 --> 00:12:38,090 Beirut. Tripoli, for example, was dubbed the by bribe of the revolution because of. 116 00:12:38,090 --> 00:12:44,690 The high participation rates and demonstrations and we can talk a bit more about Tripoli, as I said earlier in the Q&A. 117 00:12:44,690 --> 00:12:53,180 And why Tripoli is incredibly significant, not only October twenty nineteen, but today is also incredibly important. 118 00:12:53,180 --> 00:13:01,580 And finally, I think these protests were also about, you know, opposing this privileging of connexion of sect over merit. 119 00:13:01,580 --> 00:13:06,560 You have professionals and Express Scripts that were playing a key role in the protest. 120 00:13:06,560 --> 00:13:12,940 They were funding. They were organising. They were doing everything they can to say we want a civic society. 121 00:13:12,940 --> 00:13:17,060 We do not want a privileged sect over marriage, connexion over marriage. 122 00:13:17,060 --> 00:13:22,310 And finally, two more quick points about this is there was also a rediscovery of the public, 123 00:13:22,310 --> 00:13:27,110 Qur'an and the sense of a reassertion of notions of the public good. 124 00:13:27,110 --> 00:13:32,120 Anyone who was here during that period will remember this amazing energy. 125 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:38,510 I mean, you go down to Martyrs Square, where the most of the protests were happening, and there'll be at least seven, 126 00:13:38,510 --> 00:13:44,660 eight, nine, 10 discussion groups happening around anything and everything you can think about. 127 00:13:44,660 --> 00:13:50,780 And this was happening across the country, not just in Beirut. And for the first time in the country's history, 128 00:13:50,780 --> 00:13:58,370 we saw a sense of empowerment also amongst private sector companies who began to take staging demonstrations 129 00:13:58,370 --> 00:14:03,620 and saying we're not going to pay taxes because we'd rather divert this money to our employees. 130 00:14:03,620 --> 00:14:10,880 And I think that the final one and maybe the most important one that is relevant to this discussion 131 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:18,830 today is that the protests also showed a real revolt against the sectarian leadership of the country, 132 00:14:18,830 --> 00:14:23,360 because what we saw was protests happening within communities. 133 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:31,820 This is the first time where the protests were not just in Beirut, but were actually in towns and villages across the country. 134 00:14:31,820 --> 00:14:39,210 And members of various sectarian communities were protesting against their own leadership. 135 00:14:39,210 --> 00:14:45,470 And this is also a Mindstorm, in a sense, for Lebanese internal politics. 136 00:14:45,470 --> 00:14:49,130 It's quite significant. Hence came the slogan Columbiana Galon. 137 00:14:49,130 --> 00:14:54,840 All of them means all of them are still craftier. And if for the Kewney. 138 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,340 He's so much Malha that is just so much material for us to work with. 139 00:14:58,340 --> 00:15:02,860 And I think lots of points of comparison and contrast to be drawn in the case of Iraq. 140 00:15:02,860 --> 00:15:07,500 So could I invite my son to please now take the floor? Thank you, Jim. 141 00:15:07,500 --> 00:15:15,090 Thank you. I'm going to read. I'm afraid I'm not as fluent. And just to say that I'm a filmmaker, I'm not an academic. 142 00:15:15,090 --> 00:15:21,450 I was actually not present at the protests that that kicked off in October 2019. 143 00:15:21,450 --> 00:15:27,240 I was in Iraq in 2019 shooting my film, but that was in the very beginning of the year. 144 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:34,690 But I'm very much in touch with people who were there. The protests, which began in Iraq in October 2019, were not the first. 145 00:15:34,690 --> 00:15:41,550 Between 2011 and 18, sporadic protests took place in various cities against unemployment, 146 00:15:41,550 --> 00:15:46,690 low wages, corruption and the lack of utilities like electricity and clean water. 147 00:15:46,690 --> 00:15:57,730 But 2092 protests were much bigger and much more inclusive, two events triggered the protests that began in Tahrir Square in Baghdad in October 2019. 148 00:15:57,730 --> 00:16:04,840 One month before 100 hundred university graduates had protested in front of the prime minister's office demanding jobs. 149 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,820 There was a major use of force against the protesters by the security services. 150 00:16:09,820 --> 00:16:16,150 And in response, protests around the country happened against the methods used to suppress the graduates demonstration, 151 00:16:16,150 --> 00:16:27,280 especially the violence against women. A little later, a respected Army officer, Abdulwahab Sayadi, who as head of Iraq counter-terrorism force, 152 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:35,740 had led the fight against ISIS in Mosul, where he was a hero and where a statue of him was erected in the city by a grateful population. 153 00:16:35,740 --> 00:16:43,380 This man was suddenly dismissed and transferred to a desk job in the defence ministry and his statue was taken down. 154 00:16:43,380 --> 00:16:50,070 According to many people, this decision was taken by the prime minister under pressure from Possum's Soleimani, 155 00:16:50,070 --> 00:16:54,120 the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. 156 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:59,760 He was the real power in Iraq and Saturday had had a disagreement with him. 157 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:06,360 People were outraged by this for them. This was a symbol of how the country did not really belong to its people, 158 00:17:06,360 --> 00:17:13,260 but to foreign forces and to the corrupt, incompetent Iraqi political class and their militias. 159 00:17:13,260 --> 00:17:16,860 Protests erupted in Tahrir Square, in Baghdad and in other cities. 160 00:17:16,860 --> 00:17:21,960 And the slogan was read, what on? We want a homeland. 161 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:27,450 The protesters wanted radical systemic change, a core demand was an end to the quota system. 162 00:17:27,450 --> 00:17:30,750 The mahasen on which the government was based. 163 00:17:30,750 --> 00:17:38,120 This was set up by the US occupying power after the 2003 invasion to create proportional representation. 164 00:17:38,120 --> 00:17:42,010 But on an ethnic and sectarian basis. 165 00:17:42,010 --> 00:17:52,450 Protesters blame this system for causing divisions and entrenching an identity on a sectarian basis and racing a sense of national Iraqi identity. 166 00:17:52,450 --> 00:17:57,490 The protesters also blamed this policy for the division of causing a catastrophic, 167 00:17:57,490 --> 00:18:04,180 barbaric sectarian violence of 2006 and eight, which took so many lives. 168 00:18:04,180 --> 00:18:13,420 It also meant that the political class acted in self-interest as defined by sex and ethnicity and not in the interests of the whole country. 169 00:18:13,420 --> 00:18:21,700 It enabled corruption and networks of patronage and cronyism amongst the political class and the militias who backed them. 170 00:18:21,700 --> 00:18:25,370 The scale of the corruption is unbelievable. 171 00:18:25,370 --> 00:18:31,540 And I have an anecdote to tell about this to do in Lebanon, while somewhere enriching themselves on a massive scale. 172 00:18:31,540 --> 00:18:34,270 The rest of the country was being impoverished. 173 00:18:34,270 --> 00:18:44,260 As one activist said, we can no longer tolerate a system which allows political elites to treat our country's resources as spoils. 174 00:18:44,260 --> 00:18:50,110 One slogan was not she are not, certainly not Christian. 175 00:18:50,110 --> 00:18:58,330 We are one Iraq. This reflects an outright rejection of sectarianism, but it also expresses an aspiration. 176 00:18:58,330 --> 00:19:05,200 Other demands were to reform the party and electoral laws so that no party with a militia could run for office. 177 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:11,530 The other core demand was that no foreign power should be able to influence or intervene in Iraqi affairs. 178 00:19:11,530 --> 00:19:15,850 That has been the case since 2003 from various parties. 179 00:19:15,850 --> 00:19:20,980 And the nature of these protests was different from anything that had been seen in Iraq before. 180 00:19:20,980 --> 00:19:26,210 There was a core commitment to non-violence. There was a rejection of hierarchy. 181 00:19:26,210 --> 00:19:32,760 So when they were asked who the leaders were, the protesters would say there were no leaders and nor did they want any. 182 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:37,680 Of course, this was probably also to protect the people who might have been seen as leaders. 183 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:45,810 Tahrir Square became a tent city where thousands flocked to join the protests in different parts of the city, but also from the rural areas. 184 00:19:45,810 --> 00:19:51,630 People of all ages, grandparents to primary school children brought by their teachers came. 185 00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:58,350 People brought food. They painted murals. They performed street theatre against the interference of foreign powers. 186 00:19:58,350 --> 00:20:02,580 And they made memorials for the dead from the spent to your gas canisters. 187 00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:09,030 They took took drivers, became de facto ambulances, ferrying the wounded to hospital and returning with food. 188 00:20:09,030 --> 00:20:14,700 Lawyers came to give advice. Medical volunteers, often at risk of their own lives, came to treat the wounded. 189 00:20:14,700 --> 00:20:21,600 And everywhere there were discussions, a remarkable expression of unity and grassroots solidarity. 190 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:29,900 For the first time, people from poor areas like Sadr City met those from Monsoor, which is a comfortable middle class area in Baghdad. 191 00:20:29,900 --> 00:20:34,620 For the first time, they were speaking to each other. And, of course, across sectarian lines. 192 00:20:34,620 --> 00:20:36,870 The government reacted with force. 193 00:20:36,870 --> 00:20:45,720 Initially, it was snipers and the use of military grade tear gas canisters often being aimed at the heads of the protesters. 194 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:50,760 Activists were kidnapped as they went home, either by security forces or the militias. 195 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:56,460 And some who had been targeted were assassinated, which even now after the protests have stopped. 196 00:20:56,460 --> 00:21:01,530 It's happening in cities like Basra, an armada probably as a warning to others. 197 00:21:01,530 --> 00:21:08,660 By the end, people were exhausted by the violence and possibly because there was not enough tangible progress. 198 00:21:08,660 --> 00:21:17,200 By the end, 700 people had been killed. Twenty five thousand had been wounded and 5000 left with permanent disabilities. 199 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:24,370 To finish, I'd just like to quote to you what my friend Knoff RC, who I think is joining us here from Baghdad, told me. 200 00:21:24,370 --> 00:21:29,920 She said the beginning of the protest is that there has been a development of political awareness, 201 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:35,710 a commitment to a non-sectarian, non-violent movement for justice and equality. 202 00:21:35,710 --> 00:21:40,530 And even if the political class has not changed, the society has, 203 00:21:40,530 --> 00:21:47,210 in their sense of their own power what they feel entitled to and how they identify themselves. 204 00:21:47,210 --> 00:21:55,180 Mike, thank you so much. And I take my hat off to both you and Maher for being able to address such a breadth of issues, 205 00:21:55,180 --> 00:22:02,020 driving these very different and yet comparable popular protest movements in Iraq and in Lebanon. 206 00:22:02,020 --> 00:22:07,660 I am going to want to yield the floor very quickly because I can see the questions are already beginning to come in from our audience, 207 00:22:07,660 --> 00:22:18,700 which is over 130 strong, which is wonderful to see. But I think the point you made most to in about the way in which Iraqi protesters were saying in 208 00:22:18,700 --> 00:22:23,530 particular they didn't want any outside power to have any influence on their country's politics, 209 00:22:23,530 --> 00:22:29,410 was a message that was very much coded about Iran and the one country that seems 210 00:22:29,410 --> 00:22:35,800 to be a unifying thread between the sectarian dissonance in Lebanon and in Iraq. 211 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,780 Is the role that Iran is playing now, 212 00:22:37,780 --> 00:22:43,310 whether it's through the support that they give to Hezbollah in Lebanon or whether it's through the kind of intervention that cost them, 213 00:22:43,310 --> 00:22:47,760 Soleimani was, you know, protested against for doing. 214 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:52,470 Could I ask you both to just give a little bit of thought to the role that Iran plays 215 00:22:52,470 --> 00:22:58,820 in destabilising the situation in both cases and what the way forward might be? 216 00:22:58,820 --> 00:23:08,360 I wish I knew. Bahar. Well, I mean, when it comes to Lebanon, the support for Hezbollah is the obvious one. 217 00:23:08,360 --> 00:23:19,130 Hezbollah is a Lebanese political party, but it is one that is part of a larger regional axis that is involved in regional conflicts. 218 00:23:19,130 --> 00:23:22,730 I mean, it's it's an extension of Iran's policies in the region. 219 00:23:22,730 --> 00:23:27,470 In that sense, it's interesting that I read just now, a few days ago, 220 00:23:27,470 --> 00:23:38,780 that they're now considering some sort of strategic agreement between the Republic of Iran itself and its seasoned allies, 221 00:23:38,780 --> 00:23:43,010 some sort of defence agreement where they agree to defend each other, 222 00:23:43,010 --> 00:23:51,400 which means it's going to put Lebanon even further into the orbit and to an external orbit issue like external to Lebanon. 223 00:23:51,400 --> 00:24:02,930 At least the challenge is significant. I mean, Iran's destabilising and I don't want to get into Iran versus the Saudi Arabia or Iran versus the US. 224 00:24:02,930 --> 00:24:09,800 If I just want to zoom in just to respond to your question of Iran's particular activities in Iraq, 225 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:20,250 where a lot of the protests were about Iran, Barbara and Basra and Karbala and places we never thought we would hear these words. 226 00:24:20,250 --> 00:24:25,550 Mean to hear Iran on, but it just displays the level. 227 00:24:25,550 --> 00:24:31,670 It's not just about a rediscovery of Iraqi national identity, a sense of Iraqi and us, 228 00:24:31,670 --> 00:24:39,500 but it's also the sense that their country is being exploited for external purposes that someone else. 229 00:24:39,500 --> 00:24:45,890 I mean, my sense from Iraq of Iraqi friends and colleagues and workshops support space and the 230 00:24:45,890 --> 00:24:53,210 sense that Iran acts towards Iraq in the same way that Syria used to act towards Lebanon, 231 00:24:53,210 --> 00:25:02,500 deciding making, you know, playing a big role in the internal politics, decision making, humiliating leaders, etc. 232 00:25:02,500 --> 00:25:11,950 Hezbollah is Iran's man in Lebanon, and they are at this point the kingmakers in many ways. 233 00:25:11,950 --> 00:25:16,720 Nothing will move the country if they don't agree to it. 234 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:22,450 And one of the issues today, as you may know, Lebanon is in a severe bottleneck. 235 00:25:22,450 --> 00:25:30,910 It's unable to politically where the government formation has been stalled for at least six, seven months now. 236 00:25:30,910 --> 00:25:36,370 We have a prime minister, caretaker prime minister and prime minister elect, and the government is not being formed. 237 00:25:36,370 --> 00:25:42,310 And part of the issue is and part of it is domestic politics. I won't get into the weeds here. 238 00:25:42,310 --> 00:25:49,240 But part of it also is that whatever happens in Lebanon is going to be part of a regional 239 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:56,560 discussion or international discussion between the Iranians and the United States of America. 240 00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:01,960 And as far as the U.S. is concerned, frankly, Lebanon is a footnote. It really is a footnote. 241 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,520 And this broader regional deal that's going to be put on the table. 242 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:11,080 And so for Lebanon, it's not a very comfortable position to be in. 243 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,030 No, I think I think you've made a good point. 244 00:26:13,030 --> 00:26:20,440 And if Lebanon's a footnote, you know, Iraq, because of America's historic involvement as an exclamation mark and the fear, 245 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:28,750 I think that I've heard expressed and I feel myself is that the battle between the US and Iran is going to take place in Iraq. 246 00:26:28,750 --> 00:26:34,920 Iraqis themselves are pushing back. I mean, I I'm very struck by Saddam's statue coming down. 247 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:39,970 Yeah. Or antagonism between Iraqi citizens and their neighbour, Iran. 248 00:26:39,970 --> 00:26:44,650 It's all sort of dynamism in Iran's position within Iraq. 249 00:26:44,650 --> 00:26:50,240 Sometimes for better and sometimes for the worse as far as public opinion is concerned. But in public opinion, it's happening. 250 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:51,730 But what's worrisome, for example, 251 00:26:51,730 --> 00:26:59,350 is that the rocket that was fired on Saudi Arabia a couple of days ago supposedly came from Iraq, not from Yemen this time. 252 00:26:59,350 --> 00:27:03,280 And this was Iraqi, you know, groups on the ground that claimed it. 253 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:14,680 So this attempt to drag Iraq again or for it to become the playing field for this regional and international tug of war becomes even more significant. 254 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:21,440 And perhaps all the more reason for there to be detente between the United States, Iran, Iran and regional actors. 255 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:25,640 It's very hard to see how in the current sanction regime the pressure is on Iran that one 256 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:31,660 could hope to see moderation in Iran's positions in the countries like Iraq or Lebanon. 257 00:27:31,660 --> 00:27:37,490 Well, we're part of the negotiating the arsenal of things that they will negotiate over. 258 00:27:37,490 --> 00:27:43,790 So whether it's sanctions, whether it's that's why I think the government's submission will continue to be stalled, 259 00:27:43,790 --> 00:27:48,800 because there's no reason for them to give anyone anything until they get something else for it. 260 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:53,180 So the negotiations are happening outside of Lebanon, not in Lebanon at this point. 261 00:27:53,180 --> 00:27:55,820 I don't see an opening. And I think it's the same for Iraq. 262 00:27:55,820 --> 00:28:04,830 It's part of the negotiating tactics that Iran will use to its benefits now that it's reopened a conversation with the United States. 263 00:28:04,830 --> 00:28:11,600 Well, at this point, I think I need to be handing over to the questions from our audience before we hand over to Michael Willa's, 264 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:18,110 who's going to moderate the Q&A line. Let me just remind listeners who have joined us for tonight's webinar that you 265 00:28:18,110 --> 00:28:23,690 can ask your questions to our speakers through the Q&A bar on your ZEW function. 266 00:28:23,690 --> 00:28:27,140 If you want to be anonymous, you can market as anonymous. 267 00:28:27,140 --> 00:28:32,600 If you put your name down next, your question that Michael's going to give you the satisfaction of hearing your name broadcast. 268 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:38,330 So do please put your questions up now. And Michael, let me hand over to you for the Q&A. 269 00:28:38,330 --> 00:28:44,210 Thank you very much, Eugene. Our first question is directed specifically at Malchow on Lebanon. 270 00:28:44,210 --> 00:28:48,790 But I think it's relevant really to both countries. And you've touched on it already. 271 00:28:48,790 --> 00:28:52,940 And it's a question that comes from Adam Lokke. And Adam's question is, 272 00:28:52,940 --> 00:29:02,300 to what extent can the Lebanese and Iraqi protest movements be called a nation building movement overturning the post civil war, 273 00:29:02,300 --> 00:29:11,000 civil conflict and sectarian confessional settlement? And is it comparable to the other revolutions against perceived corrupt and distant governments? 274 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:15,710 For example, the nationis revolutions against Kremlin backed dictators in Eastern Europe. 275 00:29:15,710 --> 00:29:23,030 So really, is there actually something identifiable as a nation building movement emerging in these protest movements in both countries? 276 00:29:23,030 --> 00:29:28,280 Both the Mehar and team-mates who may soon be on to start OK? 277 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:36,080 I mean, in a way and Iraq, it is a kind of nation building exercise because actually everything was razed to the ground in 2003. 278 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:44,690 Everything fell apart. The whole infrastructure of the country in the sense of the nation because of this incredible sectarian division that happened. 279 00:29:44,690 --> 00:29:50,780 So in a sense, it's rebuilding something that is, you know, when they say we are all one Iraq, 280 00:29:50,780 --> 00:29:55,610 that's what the aspiration is to be achieved and to have a homeland and to have a country. 281 00:29:55,610 --> 00:30:07,060 To have a nation. So maybe. I think for Lebanon also, it is I don't know if it's a nation building exercise or more of recapturing the nation somehow. 282 00:30:07,060 --> 00:30:11,560 So the sense that, again, like Iraq, we are all Lebanese. 283 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:17,420 Our sectarian identity doesn't matter. I mean, this sense was very genuine on the ground. 284 00:30:17,420 --> 00:30:22,030 Now, how that will translate and I think this is where we need to distinguish between 285 00:30:22,030 --> 00:30:26,330 what's happening today across the region and what's happened in Eastern Europe, 286 00:30:26,330 --> 00:30:30,850 you know, decades ago. One is this is a very different context. 287 00:30:30,850 --> 00:30:36,040 We're at a moment where people have lost belief and political parties. 288 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,370 The whole question of how you organise. How do you play politics? 289 00:30:39,370 --> 00:30:43,540 I mean, we're coming out of a period where politics was a dirty word for a long time. 290 00:30:43,540 --> 00:30:52,000 And we're also coming out of period where across the region political parties were systematically demolished by those in government. 291 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:57,010 So I think that it's a very different period in that sense. 292 00:30:57,010 --> 00:31:03,160 And this is partly reflected in the disarray we're seeing today or the diversity. 293 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:08,860 I don't see that this diversity of the diversity of people and groups are part of these movements. 294 00:31:08,860 --> 00:31:19,990 We don't have, you know, a Vaclav Havel or, you know, a kind of a leader who was kind of leading the crowds down the street. 295 00:31:19,990 --> 00:31:27,760 No, you have groups who are protesting how that will translate into a political movement that's able to 296 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:34,760 transition Lebanon or Iraq into something else I think is a much bigger and a very different question. 297 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:40,580 The last thing I would say in terms of context also is that the regional context 298 00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:44,840 of the democracy movements that emerged in Eastern Europe was very different. 299 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:50,810 They had the Europe region that was completely supportive of these movements in this region. 300 00:31:50,810 --> 00:31:56,720 And this part of the whole region was completely Amethi. These demonstrations look at 2011. 301 00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:03,890 I mean, Tunisia, Egypt. And immediately the counter-revolution kickstarted. 302 00:32:03,890 --> 00:32:08,930 The realisation was, oh, my God, this is a domino effect. And it's hitting all of us. 303 00:32:08,930 --> 00:32:18,080 So, I mean, actually, the actors in the region have played a very active role in undermining these protest movements across the board, 304 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:24,150 including, I would say, Lebanon and Iraq. There is a question on Hezbollah here. 305 00:32:24,150 --> 00:32:31,530 Hezbollah has played the role. Also, we saw the reaction at the beginning of the protest movement in 2019. 306 00:32:31,530 --> 00:32:37,260 Their reaction, you know, first saying it's OK, you you're right to protest. 307 00:32:37,260 --> 00:32:40,650 We understand you're upset, but you're not OK. Now, you can go home. 308 00:32:40,650 --> 00:32:43,290 We've heard you will try and do something about it. 309 00:32:43,290 --> 00:32:50,670 And then the next step was to say, you're all traitors and there's treason here and you're all children off and being paid by foreign embassies. 310 00:32:50,670 --> 00:32:56,280 I mean, it was a crescendo of trying to discredit the the protests. 311 00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:01,040 And what was actually happening on the ground. Thank you very much. 312 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:08,550 A couple of questions now on whether specific events changed the nature of the protests and their prospects. 313 00:33:08,550 --> 00:33:12,110 And the question for each of you, for Moha. 314 00:33:12,110 --> 00:33:18,970 Do you think if it had not been for the Cobh 19 pandemic, there would actually have been effective change by now? 315 00:33:18,970 --> 00:33:25,680 And that comes from Isabel Miller. And our second question comes from the Rush Joshi, former student. 316 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,780 Very good to see you with us. Very Ash. And this goes to May soon. 317 00:33:29,780 --> 00:33:38,240 And it is. Did the killing of Kassem's samani galvanise and incite sectarian sentiment or sharpen sectarian divides? 318 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:46,070 Did it give the government to get out of jail free card and that it was deprived of having to take action against Iranian forces? 319 00:33:46,070 --> 00:33:50,930 If you could both answer those things about how specific events may have changed the movement. 320 00:33:50,930 --> 00:33:54,950 Thank you. For Lebanon. Very quickly. Yes. 321 00:33:54,950 --> 00:34:00,680 Covered 90. Would we have seen change by now? I sincerely doubt it. 322 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:05,240 You've got the political elite that's very deeply entrenched on the numbness. 323 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,830 I mean, half the city was blown up on August 4th and they still haven't budged. 324 00:34:09,830 --> 00:34:13,640 So I'm not. Not to mention the thousands of deaths, etc. 325 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:22,790 So you have a very entrenched political elite. But what we have seen is a continuation of massive movements on the ground and that 326 00:34:22,790 --> 00:34:28,290 could have created additional pressure on this political elite to watch somehow. 327 00:34:28,290 --> 00:34:32,840 So, yes, it did change the trajectory, but not in the way of peace. 328 00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:43,220 I don't think it's taught them. I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't think it would if we would have seen a massive change by now. 329 00:34:43,220 --> 00:34:46,500 Yes, in terms of the killing of Sulaimani. 330 00:34:46,500 --> 00:34:55,830 I don't think it really I mean, there are people who are very linked to him who are in power and who are benefiting from, you know, being in power. 331 00:34:55,830 --> 00:35:02,670 And his being killed is a diminution of their power, is conceivably possibly diminishing their power. 332 00:35:02,670 --> 00:35:06,390 And so I don't think it really changed. 333 00:35:06,390 --> 00:35:09,360 It doesn't change anything in the squares, in the protests, 334 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:15,500 except that there were people who came out against the US because Soleimani had been killed. 335 00:35:15,500 --> 00:35:22,950 And so I don't think it was really has changed anything. I mean, I think they'll pick up where they left off, basically. 336 00:35:22,950 --> 00:35:28,300 That's interesting. Thank you very much. Again, the question, I think would be nice to have both of you on. 337 00:35:28,300 --> 00:35:32,610 So this comes from Catarina Delacourt up from the LSC. Thank you for joining us, Katharina. 338 00:35:32,610 --> 00:35:36,780 Good to see you. And the question she poses is this. 339 00:35:36,780 --> 00:35:43,200 Everybody dislikes the sectarian system, but there are no mechanisms in either Lebanon or Iraq. 340 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:49,830 Overcoming it in a way, the eggs have to be broken to make the omelette with the cost of doing so would be hard. 341 00:35:49,830 --> 00:35:57,840 Are there any practical steps can be taken in this direction of any institutions in which reform could be made more feasible? 342 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:05,310 So really, is there really functional alternative to the sectarian system in the country, perhaps in Lebanon? 343 00:36:05,310 --> 00:36:14,430 Yes. I mean, in Lebanon, the type of agreement already foresaw the move towards a civic form of governance. 344 00:36:14,430 --> 00:36:22,440 The idea was that there would be the formation of an upper Senate that would include members of the religious groups, 345 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:28,110 representatives of the different religious groups in Lebanon. And where any decision, 346 00:36:28,110 --> 00:36:34,110 policy decision that is considered of strategic or of national implications with 347 00:36:34,110 --> 00:36:38,670 national implications would actually be discussed in this particular Senate. 348 00:36:38,670 --> 00:36:47,820 There's actually also been discussions about including members of the diaspora, representatives of Lebanon's extensive diaspora in the Senate. 349 00:36:47,820 --> 00:36:57,000 And once that sentence is established, the idea was we will then move to parliamentary elections that would not be based on sectarian identity. 350 00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:06,840 And that's in time you would slowly move away from political appointments or appointments and the civil service based on sectarian identity. 351 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,870 The Lebanese constitution actually is very particular about this because it says that only 352 00:37:10,870 --> 00:37:17,290 seven one service civil servants should be considered based on the sectarian identity. 353 00:37:17,290 --> 00:37:20,520 And in practise, this is now at every single level. 354 00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:29,520 If you want to move a caretaker of a building from one building to another, it becomes part of the skipper or girl between the leadership. 355 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:37,590 So the Lebanese governance system does have something forward in place should they choose to implement it. 356 00:37:37,590 --> 00:37:47,260 They simply have chosen not to implement it. And so almost I mean, since since 1990 that this has been in place and they still haven't implemented it. 357 00:37:47,260 --> 00:37:53,890 Well, in Iraq, actually, some of the young people who were involved in protests in Tahrir Square and so forth. 358 00:37:53,890 --> 00:38:02,290 What they're trying to do is to set up parties that are first of all, you have to get rid of them houseless our system, occultation, the quota system. 359 00:38:02,290 --> 00:38:09,940 But the set our parties that are not based on any kind of sectarian idea, but on policy when people vote for them, 360 00:38:09,940 --> 00:38:15,640 no vote for a policy, which is a policy which addresses the needs of the whole country. 361 00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:21,130 This is the idea that it should be secular and non-sectarian. Now what this is going to take a long time, 362 00:38:21,130 --> 00:38:26,050 but I think that that's the direction in which people are moving because the consequences 363 00:38:26,050 --> 00:38:31,900 of having a sectarian based government have been really catastrophic for the country. 364 00:38:31,900 --> 00:38:35,710 I mean, the population is really traumatised. Everybody has lost people. 365 00:38:35,710 --> 00:38:40,810 So I think I think it's a possibility. Yeah, you probably do have to break a good number of eggs. 366 00:38:40,810 --> 00:38:47,920 But I think it's possible. Thank you. Another question for both of you, and this comes from Nadia Alali, thank you for joining us. 367 00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:56,810 Nadia Luddy asks, I would like to have both my heart and may soon about their view on the role of women and gender claims in the uprisings, 368 00:38:56,810 --> 00:39:07,330 especially in relation to the challenging of sectarianism. The women element in the movements have presented a challenge in any way to sectarianism. 369 00:39:07,330 --> 00:39:13,500 Women were at the forefront. I mean, they were at the forefront at every single level. 370 00:39:13,500 --> 00:39:18,090 As I said, whether it was in terms of organising the protests, 371 00:39:18,090 --> 00:39:28,470 even now an infrastructure of support for communities that were affected, families that were affected by the explosion. 372 00:39:28,470 --> 00:39:32,010 The idea is that they've stepped in too many. 373 00:39:32,010 --> 00:39:36,780 I mean, broad cross-section of women have stepped into public life. 374 00:39:36,780 --> 00:39:40,740 It's not about just doing the NGO thing anymore. 375 00:39:40,740 --> 00:39:45,720 It's actually recognising that this is all a seamless effort, 376 00:39:45,720 --> 00:39:55,290 whether it's protecting protesters from security sector violence or whether it's calling for equal citizenship, 377 00:39:55,290 --> 00:40:00,780 the right to pass on their citizenship to their children, pushing against violence, 378 00:40:00,780 --> 00:40:06,180 gender based violence and for LGBT rights, the sense that all of these are connected. 379 00:40:06,180 --> 00:40:12,970 You can no longer separate these rights if we want to move to a more civic Lebanon as such. 380 00:40:12,970 --> 00:40:18,900 So I would say that what they really were at the forefront and continue to be at the forefront in every single level. 381 00:40:18,900 --> 00:40:26,950 That is quite amazing. I mean, the leadership that we've seen emerge amongst women is something. 382 00:40:26,950 --> 00:40:32,680 Hello, Nadya. It's nice that you're here. I would say something similar about Iraq, from what I know. 383 00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:41,320 I know, for example, that it's at a certain point the Senate decided that it was shameful and sinful and so forth 384 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:46,510 for women to come out and demonstrations with the men and the women were there in large, 385 00:40:46,510 --> 00:40:52,990 large numbers. They did it an enormous number of murals and were involved in theatre and all kinds of things. 386 00:40:52,990 --> 00:41:02,040 And they were there in big numbers. So he said he said that and that they should not march together and the women went bananas. 387 00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:06,840 They they refused. They said we're not you know, we're not being threatened by this. 388 00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:14,490 And, you know, and there was threats, threats that they shouldn't be. And amongst the adherents to this address line, people did that, 389 00:41:14,490 --> 00:41:18,450 but they weren't really people who had been involved in the protests, as far as I know. 390 00:41:18,450 --> 00:41:22,980 But the people who were involved in the protests absolutely, categorically refused. 391 00:41:22,980 --> 00:41:30,900 And there was a lot of talking about women's rights and around the, you know, personal status laws and so forth. 392 00:41:30,900 --> 00:41:37,740 And people who were involved also were people who were working against gender based violence as well. 393 00:41:37,740 --> 00:41:40,260 Like, no, if I quoted earlier. 394 00:41:40,260 --> 00:41:47,070 And also the other thing that some women said and meant that there was I mean, something that they didn't expect to be the case, 395 00:41:47,070 --> 00:41:52,920 that there was no harassment of women, no sexual harassment of women in Tahrir Square. 396 00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:57,940 There wasn't. And you would have expected there to be, but there wasn't. Thank you very much. 397 00:41:57,940 --> 00:42:04,980 Question. Specifically on Lebanon, reports up by two audience members all combine asking very similar things. 398 00:42:04,980 --> 00:42:13,960 And welcome on Béatrice T.S.A. They're asking Mohie if you could a little bit more about the internal domestic regional dynamics in the protests, 399 00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:19,510 particularly the role of the protests in Tripoli, again, outside of Beirut. 400 00:42:19,510 --> 00:42:26,520 Tripoli became much more important. Is there an importance of domestic dynamics going on in Lebanon we haven't seen before? 401 00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:32,580 Sorry, is it about you, said Rachel, or within within regional in terms of within Lebanon itself, 402 00:42:32,580 --> 00:42:38,130 the Tripoli performing a new role, a particular dynamic place as opposed to Beirut. 403 00:42:38,130 --> 00:42:43,570 Is there a sort of domestic within regional dynamic within Lebanon? 404 00:42:43,570 --> 00:42:46,020 Well, I mean, each each city. 405 00:42:46,020 --> 00:42:55,650 And actually, if you go in on our website, we did a series on how the protests were being experienced from different cities, 406 00:42:55,650 --> 00:43:05,610 because each city does have its own dynamic. It has its own history. It has its own community history of protest, history of organisation cetera. 407 00:43:05,610 --> 00:43:12,480 Tripoli was incredibly important because in twenty nineteen I mean, I remember telling people constantly, 408 00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:20,170 don't look at what's happening in Beirut, look at say that in Tripoli, because it was the first time that we were seeing these massive protests. 409 00:43:20,170 --> 00:43:24,010 Spain, the second and third largest cities in the country. 410 00:43:24,010 --> 00:43:32,520 Tripoli is significant because the popular narrative about Tripoli is one of radicalisation, Islamization, terrorism. 411 00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:44,640 It's associated in a lot of people's minds, ways radical, you know, with social Islam and the fighting that came out in 2007, I believe, in the area. 412 00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:50,220 So there are lots of narratives. It's a society where there's a lot of poverty. 413 00:43:50,220 --> 00:43:55,140 And what happens in 2019 is actually capture for the suspension. 414 00:43:55,140 --> 00:43:58,890 The protests were almost like massive parties. 415 00:43:58,890 --> 00:44:07,110 People were reclaiming their city, but also making their voices heard and saying don't take us for granted anymore. 416 00:44:07,110 --> 00:44:14,100 We're sick and tired of the way this country has been run and we want to reclaim our space back. 417 00:44:14,100 --> 00:44:20,610 Now, in terms of central dynamics, it's also reflected. I mean, Tripoli is predominantly Sunni. 418 00:44:20,610 --> 00:44:27,480 It reflected the discontent of the Sunni community with its own leadership in the city, 419 00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:33,390 has eight different members of parliament, former prime ministers, two former prime ministers. 420 00:44:33,390 --> 00:44:38,300 So the the protests were very much a reflection of this discontent. 421 00:44:38,300 --> 00:44:45,510 And we could hear it in the protest. People saying, you know, you talked about you've been in power, but you've done nothing for the city. 422 00:44:45,510 --> 00:44:53,850 This is a city which has 50 percent poverty rates, which has very high levels of illiteracy, high levels of unemployment. 423 00:44:53,850 --> 00:44:58,860 There's been very little investment by the Lebanese state in the city. 424 00:44:58,860 --> 00:45:03,660 It's a very youthful population. It's a mixed city. It's a historic city. 425 00:45:03,660 --> 00:45:07,860 I mean, there are lots of things one can talk about. There is the dynamic there. 426 00:45:07,860 --> 00:45:16,380 To the extent that it's had its own particular modes of organisation, but also something that we were seeing across the country at the same time. 427 00:45:16,380 --> 00:45:22,350 There's also a question, if I could just say very quickly on whether change will happen bottom up or top down. 428 00:45:22,350 --> 00:45:26,340 I think it's both way. It will happen both bottom up and top down. 429 00:45:26,340 --> 00:45:33,660 It's not going to be a one way street. There definitely has to be more organisation on the ground to present an alternative because they will not. 430 00:45:33,660 --> 00:45:39,250 But without that. But also, there has to be external pressure on the leadership as well. 431 00:45:39,250 --> 00:45:40,330 Thank you very much. 432 00:45:40,330 --> 00:45:48,730 I'm tempted to sort of extend that question to May soon about the bottom up and top down change and also to add again, they may well be connected. 433 00:45:48,730 --> 00:45:57,880 The question is coming in from Morris Kerschbaum and Maurice is asking Maysoon how she sees the upcoming parliamentary elections laying out. 434 00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:06,040 Will there be more protests, an intensifying of a situation or a political change action based on the protests? 435 00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:11,160 OK, well, organising from the bottom up, top down business, I think it's it's. 436 00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:19,140 Yes. I mean, there is there's a long way to go to organise from the bottom to have an actual programme, which isn't there yet. 437 00:46:19,140 --> 00:46:26,260 I think people are working on it. And, you know, as I said, some people are trying to sort of think about new parties. 438 00:46:26,260 --> 00:46:30,600 And I think that that will come from the bottom. What kind of structure? 439 00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:34,620 But you know, the top down well, I don't know what is the top in Iraq. 440 00:46:34,620 --> 00:46:40,520 It's a bit difficult. A bit difficult to tell. The parliamentary elections. 441 00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:45,140 I think. Yes. I mean, these parties that are being put together will take part. 442 00:46:45,140 --> 00:46:54,290 I think the problem is that it actually if the whole Mahoso saw the whole quota structure is not abandoned. 443 00:46:54,290 --> 00:47:03,410 It's a problem. I mean, there are also parties who are asking some of the people who are involved in the protests who have sort of come up, 444 00:47:03,410 --> 00:47:09,080 appear more more apparent to people. I mean, that they might be people who would become involved in politics. 445 00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:13,580 They've been invited to join some of the parties that already exist, which, you know, 446 00:47:13,580 --> 00:47:18,780 scares me, actually, quite frankly, because, one, people can be co-opted very easily. 447 00:47:18,780 --> 00:47:25,520 And unless there's a systemic change, it's not going to mean very much in June when the elections happen. 448 00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:28,460 So I don't know quite what is happening on that score. 449 00:47:28,460 --> 00:47:34,850 If no if my friend is here, she would be a person who would be able to answer that question easily. 450 00:47:34,850 --> 00:47:36,440 So that's really all I can say. 451 00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:43,220 But yes, certainly I mean, I think the big effort is to at ground level, at grassroots level, to actually come up with a programme. 452 00:47:43,220 --> 00:47:48,590 And what's something like the government that everybody seems to want looks like? 453 00:47:48,590 --> 00:47:52,970 Because at the moment we don't have it at all. No, thank you. 454 00:47:52,970 --> 00:47:57,710 Question this time again. Back to Maha for the money. 455 00:47:57,710 --> 00:47:59,050 Good to see you having you join us. 456 00:47:59,050 --> 00:48:07,160 Frank and Frank is asking really about the effect that the reconstruction programme as and when it starts in Syria will have on Lebanon, 457 00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:11,300 particular, of course, the invasion and the involvement of the Iranians and the Russians. 458 00:48:11,300 --> 00:48:14,720 What sort of implications that might have for Lebanon? 459 00:48:14,720 --> 00:48:20,810 Well, it depends if it happens with the U.S. blessing or not, because if the Sezer act for any Lebanese, 460 00:48:20,810 --> 00:48:28,560 I mean that Lebanese companies weren't getting ready to partner with other companies and move in. 461 00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:34,670 But when this sees their act, that kind of put a damper on any initiatives in that direction. 462 00:48:34,670 --> 00:48:39,350 So I think a lot of it will depend on what kind of a reconstruction programme is put in place, 463 00:48:39,350 --> 00:48:44,840 who's sponsoring it, and whether there's an international agreement to do so. 464 00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:50,630 If and when that happens and it is an internationally sanctions reconstruction programme, then, 465 00:48:50,630 --> 00:48:56,390 yes, it will create businesses for Lebanon, of course, being the country like next door. 466 00:48:56,390 --> 00:49:03,150 Tripoli is already ready to become a hub for things to be moving in and out of Syria. 467 00:49:03,150 --> 00:49:06,660 Thank you. I've got a little bit of a question on Lebanon particularly. 468 00:49:06,660 --> 00:49:14,960 Several people have asked if you could say something, Maha, about the role of France, particularly in Makram, play a big role. 469 00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:19,770 What going to play a significant role in Lebanon or not? Well, they're trying. 470 00:49:19,770 --> 00:49:23,160 The problem is that they've got the carrots, but I don't think they have quite the stick. 471 00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:27,510 That the way they need to use and I'm not sure. 472 00:49:27,510 --> 00:49:35,340 I mean, now they just his mackerels, President Krall's initiatives, he's taken a bit more life. 473 00:49:35,340 --> 00:49:43,530 Right now, there's more kind of support for it between the call that supposedly happened between him and President Biden. 474 00:49:43,530 --> 00:49:50,520 Actually, the call happened. But what was leaked is that he, you know, said we've support your initiative on Lebanon. 475 00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:57,600 Whether that's true or not, we don't know. But also, the Vatican, it seems, is pushing for something to break. 476 00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:01,530 The political political stalemate in Lebanon will not break on its own. 477 00:50:01,530 --> 00:50:06,270 Still, it does need external political intervention, not military, 478 00:50:06,270 --> 00:50:12,180 political intervention and diplomatic intervention to try and break that political stalemate. 479 00:50:12,180 --> 00:50:14,340 It will need carrots and sticks. 480 00:50:14,340 --> 00:50:23,820 I'm fortunate to keep my counsel far, has had the carrots, but has not had the sticks to force them to move into some sort of an agreement. 481 00:50:23,820 --> 00:50:31,650 This political leadership is refusing to recognise that the economic losses as a result of the country's 482 00:50:31,650 --> 00:50:37,980 economic collapse are of such magnitude that the country will have a lost decade at the very least. 483 00:50:37,980 --> 00:50:47,610 And even when they do recognise how significant the losses are, we're talking about 50 billion dollar hole in the central bank alone. 484 00:50:47,610 --> 00:50:49,350 And what that is doing to the country, 485 00:50:49,350 --> 00:50:55,330 they're still refusing to accept that they need to share in these losses or that sharing these losses means that they're 486 00:50:55,330 --> 00:51:04,170 going to lose some of their influence in the pieces of the pie that they've carved for themselves within state institutions. 487 00:51:04,170 --> 00:51:12,270 So there needs to be an international push to get them to recognise this reform is inevitable. 488 00:51:12,270 --> 00:51:22,760 And they are going to have to let go at some point sooner rather than later, we hope, before there's not much left of the country left. 489 00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,670 Thank you. One last brief question to both of you, 490 00:51:25,670 --> 00:51:34,590 and it's a question that came up in relation to Algeria last week and came up consistently during the protests across the region in 2011. 491 00:51:34,590 --> 00:51:39,140 And it's something I think both of you refer to is the lack of leadership in the 492 00:51:39,140 --> 00:51:44,840 protest movements and whether this actually gives its strength or weakness. 493 00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:50,060 And are there any particular insights from the movements in Lebanon, the movement in Iraq? 494 00:51:50,060 --> 00:51:53,950 Or are we seeing a similar mixture where it actually weakens? 495 00:51:53,950 --> 00:52:00,690 I think initially, frankly, and then weakens it later on. So your thoughts on that particular experience will be very interesting. 496 00:52:00,690 --> 00:52:08,000 And that comes from Alexander Brendle Maha. I think that it's both a strength and a weakness. 497 00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:13,250 The strength is the kind of horizontal leadership allows many people to take ownership. 498 00:52:13,250 --> 00:52:21,530 And this comes again, as I said earlier, at a time when people have lost faith in institutions and organisations and political parties. 499 00:52:21,530 --> 00:52:28,160 It also is a strength because it prevents the security services from going after the 500 00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:34,910 leaders of the protest movements or both whether to put them in jail or in some instances, 501 00:52:34,910 --> 00:52:39,050 they've been killed, as we know historically in this part of the world. 502 00:52:39,050 --> 00:52:44,180 So in that sense, it's a strength. The weakness is obviously when it comes to presenting an alternative. 503 00:52:44,180 --> 00:52:49,530 We saw this in Iraq with sequins. We saw this in Algeria and we see this in Lebanon. 504 00:52:49,530 --> 00:52:54,470 We'll say, who's the alternative? What is the alternative? Then it becomes quite problematic. 505 00:52:54,470 --> 00:53:00,950 Let's talk to the leadership of this protest movement that becomes problematic because there is no one seeing the leadership. 506 00:53:00,950 --> 00:53:10,570 If you recall in January 25, when when the Egyptian uprising happened and there was a call, let's talk to representatives of this revolution. 507 00:53:10,570 --> 00:53:14,630 A number of people went to speak to the authorities at the time. 508 00:53:14,630 --> 00:53:20,390 And they were you know, there were lots of questions around them with people on the street. 509 00:53:20,390 --> 00:53:24,020 Sinkholes said, you can represent us. Who are you to represent us? 510 00:53:24,020 --> 00:53:28,250 We have not elected you to this position. So I think it is a conundrum. 511 00:53:28,250 --> 00:53:35,150 What I'm seeing in Lebanon, and this would be my sense, is what I'm seeing in Lebanon is that there is a move to overcome this. 512 00:53:35,150 --> 00:53:39,920 And it's an exciting time in the sense we're seeing different models of organisation happening. 513 00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:45,530 People are trying to be innovative in terms of how do you organise both horizontally and vertically at the same time? 514 00:53:45,530 --> 00:53:51,740 We're seeing opposition, kind of broad coalitions emerging as an opposition movement. 515 00:53:51,740 --> 00:54:01,100 What is the political elite in the country? So I think it's a wait and see and we have to give these things time to mature and emerge. 516 00:54:01,100 --> 00:54:07,880 Yes. I mean, what I would really agree with that in terms of Iraq, I think there is a strength and not having leaders. 517 00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:15,890 If it's really pursued and you set up groups, participatory groups, rather than choosing one person to represent everybody, 518 00:54:15,890 --> 00:54:20,720 I mean, I think it's something that might be tried as opposed to just choosing a leader. 519 00:54:20,720 --> 00:54:30,200 As you say, leader can be picked off. And actually in Iraq leadership, people who are called leaders don't have a very good image. 520 00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:36,020 I mean, through the years I've sat down and all the rest that have come and gone and the leaders that are there now, 521 00:54:36,020 --> 00:54:41,210 I think people are looking not only in our part of the world, but everywhere. 522 00:54:41,210 --> 00:54:48,380 I think people are looking for different sorts of organisation, not hierarchical, not patriarchal. 523 00:54:48,380 --> 00:54:57,890 So I don't know what form that will take. But I think there is a desire for that kind of thing for a leader in this leaderless leadership. 524 00:54:57,890 --> 00:55:02,200 Well, on that note, Maysoon Pachachi, Mahayana, 525 00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:10,370 I have to thank you for having shared of the depth of your knowledge and experience and shedding so much clarity on issues of such complexity. 526 00:55:10,370 --> 00:55:14,720 It's really been a remarkable privilege to share this hour with you. 527 00:55:14,720 --> 00:55:19,730 I'd like to invite you all to join us next week when our colleague, a summit Azami. 528 00:55:19,730 --> 00:55:24,680 We'll be speaking with Shadi Hamid from Brookings. And with Nadia. 529 00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:31,400 Oh, that from the University of Kansas. Where they going to be examining the role of religion in the Arab uprisings one decade on? 530 00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:35,090 But from all of us in Oxford, a good night. A good weekend. 531 00:55:35,090 --> 00:55:39,220 And thanks to our speakers. Goodbye. Thank you. 532 00:55:39,220 --> 00:55:43,425 Jean.