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So it's really, really a great pleasure for me to introduce our speaker to say Professor Murray Luddy, a full body,

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was the professor of demography and social sciences and the director of research at the National Centre for Scientific Research Centres in Paris.

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She also is a member of the Centre for Turkish, Ottoman, Balkan and Central Asian Studies.

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Settle back. That's which she has joined since 2001 19.

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The main focus of Professor Laddies research is on relations, the relationship between demographic changes and socio political transformations,

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using that as a lens to look at other changes which are taking place in the society and.

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One of the main areas of her research has been on women and young people as agents of change,

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political change in Iran, which is she's going to present part of that research today to us.

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And I'm delighted to say that this is about basically the Iranian population policies, that the state's population policies in Iran,

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which had very successfully managed to bring down population growth back in the 80s and 90s,

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and now they have turned the clock back on or adopting a pro nativist policy.

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So a marriage is going to talk to us today about how the new policies are going to affect women's rights in Iraq.

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And she has published extensively in the airport list of publications is too long for me, a visit to the Internet.

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We'll show you what she has been working on over the years.

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But she recently had a book published on the island called Puplick Islamic Dulong Voodoo Land Tavio, which was published in 2020.

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Can you show the book, please? It is in French. And it kind of looks lovely.

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And one of her latest articles in the Journal of Iranian Studies has been The

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Islamic Republic of Iran's New Population Policy and Recent Changes in Fertility,

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which was published in March twenty twenty one. So my daughter, further ado, I am.

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And please do remember to mute your camera as everybody.

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You can send your questions, write them and send them to me at the end of the talk and we will raise your questions, which many will answer.

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Thank you very much, Mary. Thank you very much.

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Sorry for this introduction. Before starting, I'd like to thank you for the invitation.

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I'm really very pleased to contribute the talk to this research seminar.

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So in my email to Twitter, put me at 14 on the pretext of the threat of an ageing population due to birth control and the drop in fertility.

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The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, drew up a strategic programme in the Fortune article they created called Population Control Policies.

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It did. It is the matter of deploying all means possible to reverse Canada's infertility and

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especially to reach a target population of one hundred and fifty million people.

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The first question is whether this Neil population policy justified.

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Is Iran on the brink of widespread ageing? And the number he called declined the analysis of the demographic situation and of population.

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Perspective provides some clear answers.

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Over the past two decades, the age structure of the Iranian population has changed significantly as a result of very rapid fertility transition.

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According to the 20 see, a 16th census out of 18 million inhabitants, only 24 percent were under fifteen.

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While the proportion of the working age population, age 50 to 64, reached a very high percentage of 70 percent.

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Those 65 and all, they're represented only six percent of the total population.

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That's the ratio the ratio of economically active population to economically inactive population was at a crucial moment of demographic change.

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This demographic window or gift thus offers an exceptional historic opportunity.

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To encourage economic growth. Provided that the states succeed in creating a favour.

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Well, in I want a moment. For job recovery.

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But the Islamic Republic was wasting its active population potential.

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And instead of recommending the establishment of even primaries, it proved Missouri policies.

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Conducive to taking advantage of this demographic opportunity to sell property there has chosen to highlight the ageing of the population.

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And of course, this an imminent ageing of the population is real, it is real and will.

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We'll see. This situation demands the urgent implementation of social social convert.

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For the elderly, for instance, retirement, perks, pension, all age insurance and Special K.

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In no way this population policy will constitute an adequate response to the current ageing of the population,

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according the U.S. population projection, in 2050,

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Iran reached one hundred and three million inhabitants remain one of the most populous countries in the war between 78 and 19 place at this date,

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20 50. Nearly a quarter of the population will be 65 or older, but the share of working age population will still be the largest at 60 percent.

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These contests, that data show that in the foreseeable future,

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Iran will certainly not be trying to beat decline their population or Danish generational.

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No real new. This conflict.

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Hypothesis that the new population policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, initiated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and confirmed by the supreme leader.

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Response foremost to political and ideological considerations.

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So what does these concentration pristinely?

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There are 14 article that decree called General Population Policies are drawn up in a key word,

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quote, term, which may give rise to different applications depending on the context.

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For example, the target of reaching a population of one hundred and fifteen million is not specifically state.

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But the first article stipulates that it is necessary to promote the dynamic growth and youthfulness of the population.

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Why an increase in fertility which should be above the replacement threshold without space?

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It is specifying the level of fertility target.

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According to certain policymakers, the figure is trade children.

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Why? For others, it is five to six children.

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Article two, amongst others, insist on the need to remove obstacles to reducing age at marriage.

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Yet no practical indications are given. Several of the decrease in article refer to the need to cover the cost associated

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with pregnancy and maternity for infertility treatment for men and women,

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and for nutrition and health needs, too,

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including lessons in public schooling about funding families and the merits of so doing and so on and so forth.

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All six articles seems to focus on demographic considerations.

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Six others reveal the ideological turner after recommendations.

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First one, promoting and institutionalising the Islamic and Iranian way of life to counter undesirable aspects of Western life,

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sex, to be enforcing the competence and the competence of national identity, which are Iranian, Islamic and revolutionary.

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Three, creating new settlement zones, particularly in the island along the coast of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman for managing.

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Immigration and immigration in concert with general population policies, five, promoting consensus and social integration.

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Across the territory, in particular, in the border zones, in the mark, Iranian expatriates.

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And finally,

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six encouraging Iranian expatriates to return and invest in the country and thereby benefit from the possibilities and capabilities in it,

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being well aware that the predominant family model in Iran is no is to marry late and have a small nuclear family.

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The Islamic Republic's policy makers also know that the prospect of reaching a target

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population of one hundred and fifty million Iranians in the new in the near future is utopian.

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This, to my mind, is what the decree never explicitly mentioned, this target.

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Why, no, the hinting at the IDF people in the entire territory, by means other than rising Iranian fertility rate.

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The first man could be expectorate Iranians, as mentioned in Article twelve of the decree.

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Ever given that the majority of this expatriate Iranians oppose the Islamic regime,

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assuming they are they agree to return to Iran, they might instead end up causing political unrest for the regime.

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This is why it is unlikely that this policy will be a priority of the regime.

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Why mention is made of managing immigration and immigration in compliance with

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general population policies without any practical indication on this matter.

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It mate, it may be supposed that the Islamic Republic could envisage, including greeting the Iranian population,

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the couple of million Afghans living in Iran as refugees and or as undocumented migrant.

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Especially as since 2014. Afghans enlisted by the Revolutionary Guards are wrong as militiamen called for two million to fight

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alongside the Syrian army have received Iranian industrial morality for themselves and their family.

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So it is very likely that by Iran and expatriates, the government.

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I mean, Slavic Republic of Iran referred to these Afghans recently.

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Naturaliste. This mess policy of taking in migrants and integrating them may also concern Shiite militia recruited by their pastor in Pakistan.

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Called They Love You and fighting alongside the Revolutionary Guards in Syria.

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This practise by the pastor, Ron, seems fairly close to the spirit of the twenty fourteen decree and suggest

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that where that where immigrant population included in the Iranian population,

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that prime benefits years would be Shiite.

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Furthermore, these recommendations are for border zones.

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That's very fair pay for all regions.

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People up need by Souness.

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In so far as this soon, particularly those boarding Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east and Iraq and Turkey to the west seem per porous with intense,

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regular, two way secret circulation of populations from the same ethnic,

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linguistic and religious group, the state appears determined to kerb these flows.

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In light of this Article 13 of the decree, which calls to reinforce the competence of Iranian Islamic Andrew Woloshin,

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that a national identity and promote consensus and social integration across the territory,

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in particular in the waters and amongst Iranian expatriates, takes on its full meaning.

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The objective is, above all, to provide Iran with a large population,

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but additionally one who adders to the values of the Islamic Republic defined as the components national identity.

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It is most likely that the Islamic Republic follows this path.

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And for these reasons, the new population policy of the Islamic Republic may be defined as population ist.

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Does the actual yet concealed objective of the new population policy of the Islamic Republic is in reality to boost population growth,

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to reach one hundred and fifty million inhabitants with an Iran of one million, 50 million inhabitants?

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Right to call the state hopes to cure a demographic weapon to exert influence in the region.

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It would indeed be destress if we open.

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That would be crucial for regime engaged in this protocol dispute with the immediate neighbours and with the West.

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And one can fail, not can.

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And one cannot fail to note it.

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Coherence between this population is the direction and Iran's ambition, too.

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Ambitions for regional hegemony. Excuse me.

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Because exactly of this ideological and political objective.

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I must emphasise that the Islamic Republic took some incentive Culver City and aggressive to an

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aggressive measures in order to accelerate the process of reversing the downward trend in fertility.

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It goes without saying that these measures were taken in violation of women's right.

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And, of course, their reproductive rights.

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In other words, to achieve this new population policy.

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The Islamic Republic of Iran sees the women's body.

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Let's take a look at the most significant and important incentive and aggressive measures implemented in Iran since 2009 10.

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First, instinctive measures encouraging Iranians to marry and found families Vedi York.

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In November to tell us two to 10, 2010, Ahmadinejad expressed recommended marriage at the precocious age.

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During a meeting in tribute to the actors and benefactors of Marriott.

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Get the glass I put. For me, the ideal age for women to marry is between 16 and 18.

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And for men between 19 and 21.

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What I remind you, in two thousand and six, the mean age at first married for women was twenty twenty two point seven.

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And for men, twenty six point five. Ahmadinejad went on to state that I called, okay?

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We need to move towards simple marriage and support it.

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I believe a simple and dignified, dignified Compte marriage has priority over employment and housing issues and cut the expression simple marriage.

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You was used by the head of government to mean a marriage celebrated by an inexpensive ceremony and doree of a primary symbolic value.

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For example, 40 gold coins. The name of the fourth did she Shiite any collates.

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Ahmadinejad just proposed launching an initiative to conduct pullup hunger.

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Now four simple early Megahed to this and the minister of the interior set up a foundation called

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the National Foundation for Marriage between the ministry's department for women's efforts.

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This foundation was tasked with coordinating all the state active activities for the marriage of young people supporting bodies.

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What activities cause to stop infertility, isolating fat, syndicating marriage, and helping set up new structure to monitor these goals.

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In addition, since to two thousand nine, the government grants and interest free loan to Iran young people in order to.

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It is to Mary, Mary, Yonke. At the beginning, the amount was about one to three million.

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Two months. But today it is between 70 to 100 million for months to assess the impact of this measure.

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It is necessary to carry out a field survey, which is not possible under current conditions in Iraq.

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Nevertheless, it is legitimate to assume that these measures, when these financial incentive seems significant,

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have encouraged young people from disadvantaged strata, particularly in rural sectors, to get married young.

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Did he upset that there probably single women aged 15 to 24 in Arlen Spectre?

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And aged fifteen to twenty nine in rural sectors after steady rising for three decades, has dropped from 2006 to 2016.

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In this fissure, especially in the rural sectors, the first the women of this.

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Edge, at first, the mean age, at first,

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marriage passed off fall from two twenty three point eight in 2006 to twenty two point seven in twenty twenty sixteen.

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This can be explained in part by the impact of the state campaigns promoting marriage at very young ages.

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Moreover, the change in age at Marriott.

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Sim's. To be in line with the fertility trend between 2012 and total in 2012 and 2016, should you indeed who are there for a TV deal was stablish.

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At a fair lot lower one point nine children per woman between 2010.

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One and two. Twenty eight than. Has started to rise slightly.

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Between 2012 and 20, see 16 at around two point one and two point two children per woman.

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Now, look, we look at cuirass, it seems an aggressive measures holding this through version of a free con contraceptive in August.

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2012. Taking advantage of a speech by the supreme leader during a meeting in which the professor.

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He emphasised that if the population council policy continues, the population will grow.

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Progress will be older and the population will ultimately decline.

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Ahmadinejad mocked, blocked the family planning budget for the purchase of contraceptive in 2013 following recommendations by supreme leader.

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The Family Planning Centre's budget was drastically reduced.

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Consequently, these centre definitely halted the distribution of free contraceptives and stopped offering families and tubal ligatures.

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As of 2013, of course, contraceptive admittedly still on sale in pharmacies.

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But given the serious economic crisis and soaring inflation data, price rose steadily, making them unaffordable for disadvantaged classes.

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Additionally, since these state pro-government media, including newspaper,

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radio, television, together with clear, clear colourist during Friday prayers,

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how this started its systematic offensive against contraceptive after and pupil open Yanta, the often very dangerous side effects for women helped.

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The suspension of the distribution of contraceptive affects, in particular the families from the disadvantaged,

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disadvantaged and mothers as to who ought to then could benefit from their various service

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of the family planning centre to cultural or programme the calendar of their fertility.

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Again, in the absence of appropriate data,

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Michon marriages assume that this aggressive measure has affected fertility and possibly caused

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on what that birth and consequently a slight increase in the fertility of married couples.

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More importantly, women were deprived of their right to choose whether to have a child or not and their

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reproductive health right would have been violated in case of unauthorised abortion.

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The second course, active, even aggressive measure is an article of a draught.

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No court population and to and this of the family, it concerns employment.

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According to this article, the parliament, uranian, parliament gives employment priority in both the public and private sector to first.

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Married men, Rete, Children, Segan, married man without children.

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And Leslie Terk, two married women with children.

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In the absence of married applicant, it is possible to employ qualified, unmarried individuals.

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Men first, then remit. Given that the evolution of the main determinants of fertility in here is contributing to birth control.

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I assume that this discriminatory, low hitting singles, especially women, has influenced the behaviour of married couples and young singles.

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Given the severity of the economic situation in Europe and the high rate of unemployment,

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young couples are likely to have changed their family project and the young men and women may

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have decided to marry in order to increase the chances of accessing stable out of treatment.

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It is possible that couples in particular have reduced their interval between marriage and the first,

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third or between births if they have already tried.

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Of course, until now, no data available laws to prove this hypothesis.

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However, in the current state of knowledge of the social and economic situation of the country,

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it seems to be the most likely experimentation of the slight increase in fertility between 2012 and 2016.

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Since then, the worsening economic conditions,

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mainly due to U.S. sanctions having significantly reduced the government's ability to continue both its coercive,

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too coercive and an incident in sensitive measures have led to a continued decline in marriage.

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And therefore the decline in birth and fertility.

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After a slight rise between 2012 and 2016,

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the fertility is started falling to one point nine to run in twenty eight eighteen and to one point seven in twenty nineteen.

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To conclude, I would cut the paragraph seven point three of the International Conference on Population and Development Programme of actions.

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It says, I quote, Reproductive rights are based on the right of couples and individuals to decide.

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Free from discrimination, coercion and violence, whether to have children, how often and when to do so.

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Having been necessary information and means to make such a decision.

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It is also connected with gay rights to the highest attainable standard of sexual and reproductive health.

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So you see, all the measure taken in Iran shows clearly that the Islamic Republic for this tragic take necessary.

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I I must to emphasise the survival of the regime depends on it, did not hesitate to violate once again in a different way.

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The human rights of women.

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What you meant by reappropriating their fertility succeeded in coming out of the male state of the nation and they're switching dignity and equality.

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They again find themselves subject to injunctions that will let their reproductive health rights and thereby human rights.

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Thank you for your attention. Thank you very much, Marie.

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Thank you. That's very, very rich.

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It needs a lot of support for being in fact, some people have already asked me whether they could have the script of your paper.

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If that is available, I you. Is there any way where they can access the written take your written text?

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I think that the most important things that I talk about,

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they can find in my article on the Journal of Iranian study I mentioned the article that Marty is referring

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to is called The Islamic Republic of Iran's New Population Policy and Recent Changes in Fertility.

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It's on the issue of March 20 21. So you will get all the figures that you are asking for that article.