1 00:00:00,180 --> 00:00:05,550 So what I want to do today is to continue some comments about the consequences of migration, 2 00:00:05,550 --> 00:00:12,690 broaden it into a discussion about ethnic minorities and as much as I can about 3 00:00:12,690 --> 00:00:19,840 their demography and see what the future might hold for those populations. 4 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:30,250 To reprise some of the comments made last time, migration has a number of demographic consequences, some positive and some negative, 5 00:00:30,250 --> 00:00:35,500 obviously it tends to increase the size of the populations of the area in which people are moving. 6 00:00:35,500 --> 00:00:41,080 It decreases the populations. Other things be equal of the populations from which they have moved. 7 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:50,530 Sometimes it also affects death rates and birth rates. Independently of that, usually in in the last few centuries, death rates, 8 00:00:50,530 --> 00:00:55,390 the movement of people from one part of the world to another is often accompanied by warfare, 9 00:00:55,390 --> 00:00:59,590 sometimes warfare, and extremely violent and protracted kind. 10 00:00:59,590 --> 00:01:06,190 The invasions of the Mongols into China, which created the Yuan Dynasty in the 13th century, 11 00:01:06,190 --> 00:01:11,680 is thought to have led to the loss over decades of about 50 million people from the population of China, 12 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:16,300 which then may have been of the order of 200 million people who were shifted the entire centre of gravity, 13 00:01:16,300 --> 00:01:20,500 the population of China from the north to the south for quite a long time. 14 00:01:20,500 --> 00:01:22,570 Likewise, in the New World, as I mentioned before, 15 00:01:22,570 --> 00:01:31,870 the arrival of Europeans in increasing numbers led to widespread destruction of the North and South American native populations, 16 00:01:31,870 --> 00:01:38,650 not so much by violence and warfare, although that happened, but much more through the introduction of diseases, 17 00:01:38,650 --> 00:01:44,020 smallpox, tuberculosis and other diseases for which those populations were completely unprepared. 18 00:01:44,020 --> 00:01:53,410 Having been separated from the the old world for many thousands of years, they had no natural immunity. 19 00:01:53,410 --> 00:02:03,100 It also has more subtle effects, Kingsley Davis pointed out in his seminal but neglected paper on On The Theory of Change in response that 20 00:02:03,100 --> 00:02:10,390 migration is an alternative response to to demographic pressures from from the death rates and birth rates, 21 00:02:10,390 --> 00:02:18,190 and that the effect of migration from a country where the population pressure is quite high, 22 00:02:18,190 --> 00:02:24,520 where fertility is quite high may, for example, be to delay the onset of the fertility transition. 23 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,400 This is perhaps most noted in the case of Ireland, 24 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:33,130 where despite the fact that the birth rate remained well above replacement rate until well into the 20th century, 25 00:02:33,130 --> 00:02:37,210 until the mid 1950s, in fact, considerably higher than anywhere else in Europe. 26 00:02:37,210 --> 00:02:38,020 Nonetheless, 27 00:02:38,020 --> 00:02:48,670 the population of Ireland declined from the eighteen forties to the 1950s to about a half of its previous level because the level of emigration, 28 00:02:48,670 --> 00:02:53,920 but one third of each of every person in each birth cohort cohort emigrated from 29 00:02:53,920 --> 00:02:58,720 Ireland over that period was greater than the very considerable natural increase, 30 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:03,100 more modest and consequently, population pressure was reduced. 31 00:03:03,100 --> 00:03:11,560 And it is widely believed what would have been an earlier demographic transition of fertility in Ireland was delayed by many, many decades. 32 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:16,210 Something similar on a more modest scale sort of happened in Puerto Rico because of immigration 33 00:03:16,210 --> 00:03:24,050 to the US and also possibly the emigration of Europeans from the western seaboard of Europe. 34 00:03:24,050 --> 00:03:31,480 The 54 million that I mentioned last week is thought to have delayed the demographic transition except crucially in France, 35 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,470 where you'll recall the fertility transition took place about 100 years earlier than 36 00:03:35,470 --> 00:03:39,520 in the rest of Europe and were uniquely amongst the major western parts of Europe. 37 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:48,430 There was almost no emigration from France and also little possibility of migration from town to the countryside because France's industrialisation, 38 00:03:48,430 --> 00:03:56,900 despite its technical and scientific progress, was much delayed. I also pointed out that on a much smaller scale, 39 00:03:56,900 --> 00:04:02,840 that migration is probably essential for the survival of very small populations to prevent them falling 40 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:09,080 into very low population size with increasingly erratic sex ratio for purely statistical reasons, 41 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:13,370 which may lead to the further reduction in birthrate and their eventual extinction. 42 00:04:13,370 --> 00:04:17,330 Simulations of a sarcastic kind make this a possibility. Quite clear. 43 00:04:17,330 --> 00:04:26,660 Migration balances out the numbers, prevents genetic drift, keeps off effective size and preserves a diversity. 44 00:04:26,660 --> 00:04:35,750 And of course, finally, it increases the cultural diversity of areas by the importation of new populations with new religions and cultures, 45 00:04:35,750 --> 00:04:44,060 new languages and new ways of life. The definition of ethnic groups, I'm sure, is something which we're well familiar with from from other causes. 46 00:04:44,060 --> 00:04:52,910 Another study I won't I won't dwell on this is not a sharp definition, not a sharp criterion, 47 00:04:52,910 --> 00:05:01,940 but it tends to apply apply to groups of people showing distinctive characteristics of a cultural kind of origin language, 48 00:05:01,940 --> 00:05:06,500 sometimes with a biological background, sometimes distinguishable by appearance, 49 00:05:06,500 --> 00:05:13,970 what the Canadians called visible minorities in their ethnic classification and sometimes not maybe indigenous, 50 00:05:13,970 --> 00:05:19,910 maybe arising out of migration, maybe arising out of of conquest in democracies nowadays, 51 00:05:19,910 --> 00:05:26,270 normally self attributed in autocratic societies where there is a case for it is felt 52 00:05:26,270 --> 00:05:31,850 for labelling ethnic minorities normally as a way of keeping people in their place. 53 00:05:31,850 --> 00:05:34,310 Identity is enforced by law, 54 00:05:34,310 --> 00:05:43,610 as in the case of South Africa in times gone past in democracies and free societies where there is a demand by ethnic groups for identity, 55 00:05:43,610 --> 00:05:51,600 this is done usually on an entirely voluntary basis. People say for themselves what ethnic group they belong to, if any. 56 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,540 And interestingly enough, in recent American sentences, 57 00:05:54,540 --> 00:06:03,300 quite a few people have not filled in this this question and therefore depriving themselves, as it were, of an ethnic label. 58 00:06:03,300 --> 00:06:11,790 The demographic interest is primarily in case there are differences, if there are no differences in vital rates, 59 00:06:11,790 --> 00:06:17,880 no differences in birth rates and differences in death rates and differences in rates of migration in or out. 60 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:25,020 So the relative numbers remain static. The numbers are still interesting, but the demographic interest is rather muted. 61 00:06:25,020 --> 00:06:29,220 If demographic differences emerge in terms of rates, rates of reproduction, 62 00:06:29,220 --> 00:06:35,010 rates of increased rates of decline, then of course this means that the balance of numbers is changing. 63 00:06:35,010 --> 00:06:41,280 And particularly in democracies, the balance of power may be changing in that society and sometimes creating tensions. 64 00:06:41,280 --> 00:06:47,910 And quite a lot of the demographic interest is of this political kind at the present time. 65 00:06:47,910 --> 00:06:57,570 In the past, of course, we have very little information about what the different ethnic groups in diverse societies did in terms of their birth rates. 66 00:06:57,570 --> 00:07:02,940 We only have a rather tenuous grasp about what the birth rate and the death rate of the entire population was like. 67 00:07:02,940 --> 00:07:13,380 And it's not easy to get information about about differences in birth rates for the pre transitional, pre Democratic past. 68 00:07:13,380 --> 00:07:15,130 Occasionally, there are glimmers of light. 69 00:07:15,130 --> 00:07:22,560 For example, the Ottoman Empire, which included a wide variety of different ethnic groups and religions, did have censuses. 70 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:26,910 And from that as possible, from time to time to infer differences in the birth rate. 71 00:07:26,910 --> 00:07:34,620 And it turns out, for example, perhaps surprisingly, the Christian subjects of the Sultan had a somewhat higher birth rate than Turkish 72 00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:42,600 subjects of the Sultan in pre transitional times in the 19th and 18th centuries. 73 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:54,630 As these multicultural empires are dismembered by war or collapse from various internal regions, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian, the Russian Empire, 74 00:07:54,630 --> 00:08:01,650 the Austria Hungarian Empire and the German Empire all terminated by the First World War or as they implode for other reasons, 75 00:08:01,650 --> 00:08:07,380 like the Soviet Union in 1991. Then, of course, 76 00:08:07,380 --> 00:08:17,280 what was a single political entity becomes fragmented into lots of smaller political entities and in those entities that are often ethnic minorities. 77 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:22,440 If those entities become democratic, then that then all sorts of things become salient and important, 78 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,080 which previously perhaps had a lesser importance. 79 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:35,490 And when it is the case that numbers of people in different regions, which are often, of course, people of different ethnic groups, 80 00:08:35,490 --> 00:08:43,380 or when ethnic groups or regions are recognised explicitly in constitutions, then demographic differences start to become very important indeed. 81 00:08:43,380 --> 00:08:53,970 One example is that of the Lebanon in Lebanon when it was formulated as the state after the First World War, initially under a French suzerainty, 82 00:08:53,970 --> 00:09:02,730 the Constitution provided as a result of the census of 1933 that the president of Lebanon should be a Maronite Christian, 83 00:09:02,730 --> 00:09:10,650 that the prime minister should be a Sunni Muslim, and that the speaker of the House of what we would call House of Commons. 84 00:09:10,650 --> 00:09:13,110 The Parliament was a Shia Muslim. 85 00:09:13,110 --> 00:09:20,820 And that reflected the relative numbers of people, as reflected by the census of 1933, which asked people what religion they belong to. 86 00:09:20,820 --> 00:09:26,280 It was thought to be a fair distribution of power, and that remains to the present day. 87 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,780 In the course of the present, political structure of Lebanon is somewhat shambolic. 88 00:09:30,780 --> 00:09:38,790 No one has dared to hold a census since then in Lebanon because almost certainly the positions would now be reversed. 89 00:09:38,790 --> 00:09:45,390 The birth rate of the Maronite Christians has been for many decades lower than they were the other major groups. 90 00:09:45,390 --> 00:09:53,040 The Lebanon. The birth rate of the Shia Muslims has been the highest and those of the Sunni has been in the middle there, all declining over time. 91 00:09:53,040 --> 00:10:02,160 But the rank order is quite clear. It is quite clear that this this apportionment, this formal constitutional apportionment of power, 92 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,980 according to numbers, would have to be completely reversed. 93 00:10:04,980 --> 00:10:10,920 That would undoubtedly lead to serious dissent and possibly make conflict in Lebanon always just below the surface. 94 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:12,870 Very, very likely. 95 00:10:12,870 --> 00:10:21,060 Likewise, in Nigeria, there's a similar arrangement whereby the different regions of Nigeria are allotted seats in the in the federal parliament, 96 00:10:21,060 --> 00:10:28,890 according to the numbers revealed by the census that is made holding a rational, effective census in Nigeria, nearly impossible. 97 00:10:28,890 --> 00:10:35,880 Each time that a revision is called for, the numbers jump up enormously beyond any possibility of democratic demographic increase, 98 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:41,610 because, of course, the region, which has got the most the most numbers, gets the most seats in the parliament. 99 00:10:41,610 --> 00:10:47,820 The region with the most seats in the parliament is able to award itself more federal funds for its support. 100 00:10:47,820 --> 00:10:52,920 This is very explicit in elected election time, very explicit also from time to time. 101 00:10:52,920 --> 00:11:00,880 In that sense, this time there are many other examples, but that's that's one of them. 102 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:12,340 This notion of ethnic minorities is not just apply, of course, to one kind of group of persons with a with a common kind of origin, 103 00:11:12,340 --> 00:11:21,100 following what I've been saying last last time on Tuesday, it it might follow that most ethnic minorities arise out of some migratory process. 104 00:11:21,100 --> 00:11:26,860 This is by no means the case. Ethnic minorities can be created by boundary changes. 105 00:11:26,860 --> 00:11:34,900 They can be a they can arise out of invasions. And there are a number of different categories of ethnic groupings that some minority, 106 00:11:34,900 --> 00:11:40,750 some some majority visible in the world in the past and in the present. 107 00:11:40,750 --> 00:11:49,540 In some cases, the original inhabitants are replaced or or marginalised by it, by migration. 108 00:11:49,540 --> 00:11:59,740 In Northern Africa, the original populations of Christian origin were well marginalised by the Arab invasions of the 7th century, for example. 109 00:11:59,740 --> 00:12:04,780 Likewise, in Anatolia by but by Turkish invasions in North America, as I mentioned, 110 00:12:04,780 --> 00:12:14,560 the the originally dominant indigenous populations were marginalised and greatly reduced in number by European invasions in Australia. 111 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:18,940 A similar fate befell the Aboriginals. And in England, 112 00:12:18,940 --> 00:12:24,190 the original population of Celtic origin and language and Christian Christian religion 113 00:12:24,190 --> 00:12:30,640 was submerged in the sixth and seventh centuries culturally by Anglo-Saxon invasions, 114 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:38,020 such that the remnant populations are only culturally apparent in Wales and Cornwall and in parts of Scotland. 115 00:12:38,020 --> 00:12:45,670 It used to be thought that the Celtic populations of Britannic language and 116 00:12:45,670 --> 00:12:49,900 Christian religion were essentially exterminated by the Anglo-Saxon invaders. 117 00:12:49,900 --> 00:12:55,600 This was this was assumed because of the extraordinary pattern of the of the English language, which was speaking today. 118 00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:01,780 There are about 50000 words in the English language of which not more than 50 are of Celtic origin. 119 00:13:01,780 --> 00:13:11,680 It's in the natural understanding from this population wipe out a complete ethnic cleansing except in those marginal Western areas. 120 00:13:11,680 --> 00:13:14,350 This is almost certainly not true. 121 00:13:14,350 --> 00:13:22,470 Demographic considerations, archaeological considerations, and above all, modern genetic considerations, which many of you will be very well familiar. 122 00:13:22,470 --> 00:13:30,280 I suggest quite the reverse is the case that the greater part of the genetic ancestry of the populations of British Isles are quite ancient and that 123 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:41,480 what has happened is a complete cultural makeover and not a population turnaround of the magnitude which the language patterns appear to suggest. 124 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:47,390 So things that some evidence is contrary to to the effects of other evidence. 125 00:13:47,390 --> 00:13:52,410 There are lists here, also various other ways in which people become become can become minority, 126 00:13:52,410 --> 00:14:04,010 sometimes dominant for a while, like the Manchus in China and the whites in South Africa, sometimes more more complex. 127 00:14:04,010 --> 00:14:10,400 Quite often, deliberate attempts to create more and more apparently sustainable, 128 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:20,540 more apparently viable nation states out of out of the fragmentation of empires have had unexpected, predictable negative results. 129 00:14:20,540 --> 00:14:32,000 This is a map of part of the Ostro Hungarian empire, which existed until 1918, centred on on Vienna, which is. 130 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:37,790 Can't see it on the map, it must be there. Uh, well, here's here's Bratislava, 131 00:14:37,790 --> 00:14:44,610 where the printers to this this enormous area was carved off of the Treaty of Versailles 132 00:14:44,610 --> 00:14:48,840 by the victorious allied powers with politicians crawling over maps on the wall, 133 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:54,150 drawing lines on it, saying, well, this this is mostly Hungarian origin, Hungarian. 134 00:14:54,150 --> 00:14:57,360 This is mostly Romanian origin. That ought to be Romania and so on. 135 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:03,510 Trying to create a democratic nation states in a rather naive hope that this would this would produce lasting peace. 136 00:15:03,510 --> 00:15:10,950 Well, certainly the enormous diversity of the Austrian Hungarian empire was greatly reduced by the 137 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:17,790 fragmentation of its constituent parts into into a notionally democratic national entities. 138 00:15:17,790 --> 00:15:20,520 But it created more ethnic minority problems. 139 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:31,200 It didn't solve the war, for example, in what is now Romania, part of which at that time was under Ottoman suzerainty, which, of course, disappeared. 140 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:37,410 The northern part was heavily populated by ethnic Germans and by Hungarians in Transylvania up here. 141 00:15:37,410 --> 00:15:40,920 That's why it's of green in this map. 142 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:49,620 The whole of this part of what is now Romania was transferred from Hungary to which used to belong to the new state of Romania. 143 00:15:49,620 --> 00:15:58,260 In doing so, it exchanged a Romanian minority in greater Hungary for Hungarian minority, 144 00:15:58,260 --> 00:16:05,160 as it were, greater Romania, plus an ethnic German minority, also in the same area. 145 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:10,440 And that's one example of the way in which this attempt to create more homogeneous 146 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:15,780 states that in fact failed to do so and created lasting problems of tension, 147 00:16:15,780 --> 00:16:23,280 which are still in existence in Romania, although most of the ethnic Germans have now moved back to Germany and as it were, solved. 148 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:32,730 The problem, for example, was was in in Czechoslovakia. 149 00:16:32,730 --> 00:16:35,760 This this this this is the country of Czechoslovakia, 150 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:42,510 which the the Versailles and General Mapmaker's created out of the remnants of the Austrian Hungarian empire. 151 00:16:42,510 --> 00:16:52,770 The blue bits where the Czechs lived in the far western part of Czechoslovakia is a land populated by people of German nationality, 152 00:16:52,770 --> 00:16:57,560 German ancestry, German ethnicity. One one might say that, as you recall, 153 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:05,730 your your history of the Second World War will recall that there was tremendous agitation by the the Nazi inspired leaders. 154 00:17:05,730 --> 00:17:14,880 And then to join the German Reich under Hitler in 1933 and eventually under German pressure, succeeded in doing so, 155 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:21,120 thereby making Czechoslovakia defenceless because all the mountainous areas with all the frontier forces was here. 156 00:17:21,120 --> 00:17:32,340 And that led to the easy invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938 and which precipitated the invasion of Poland that followed the the Second World War. 157 00:17:32,340 --> 00:17:38,910 So major problems of ethnic consciousness, ethnic division were created by the invention of these new states, 158 00:17:38,910 --> 00:17:43,050 which were hoped to be a more homogeneous. 159 00:17:43,050 --> 00:17:44,820 And eventually, as you also recall, 160 00:17:44,820 --> 00:17:54,030 Czechoslovakia divided itself in the so-called velvet divorce of nineteen ninety one between the Czech party here and the Slovak party here, 161 00:17:54,030 --> 00:17:58,740 which could have been predicted at the time. I thought lots of examples of that. 162 00:17:58,740 --> 00:18:04,020 Here's another example of of, um, a sort of ethnic mess. 163 00:18:04,020 --> 00:18:12,470 Here's the Balkans with. With Bosnia and Herzegovina, where, of course, the terrible conflicts took place between between Serbs, 164 00:18:12,470 --> 00:18:21,380 Croats and Muslim Bosnians in the 1990s, we have tremendous refugee movements into Germany creating new minorities there. 165 00:18:21,380 --> 00:18:25,730 And here in Serbia, we have the province of Kosovo. 166 00:18:25,730 --> 00:18:29,390 Kosovo used to be populated mostly by Serbs. 167 00:18:29,390 --> 00:18:41,010 It's the site of one of the one of the iconic military events, the battle of of what's called a terrible defeat in about 30, 168 00:18:41,010 --> 00:18:45,050 46, where essentially the Turks took over as part of this part of Serbia. 169 00:18:45,050 --> 00:18:55,640 And eventually the whole lot over the course of time, the higher birthrate of the Kosovars, who are mostly Muslim of Albanian ethnic group, 170 00:18:55,640 --> 00:19:05,660 replaced numerically or displaced numerically the Serbian population and provoked a violent and oppressive reaction by the Serbs, 171 00:19:05,660 --> 00:19:06,500 which was met, as you know, 172 00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:19,040 by air strikes by NATO in the 1990s and eventually the creation of Kosovo as a separate independent state under UN supervision just a few years ago. 173 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:26,960 Whether that would be viable or not, I don't know, but that that's a quite interesting example of of a state which detached itself or became detached, 174 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:34,970 became alienated from its parent because of long term differences in the birth rate, 175 00:19:34,970 --> 00:19:43,400 which became salient once once the states began to have democratic ideals and numbers started to get translated into power. 176 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:49,140 Um. Sometimes it seems to be the case that even oppressive dictatorships, 177 00:19:49,140 --> 00:19:58,170 as the Ottoman Empire was can can keep can keep highly mixed up populations of different ethnic origins in in order, 178 00:19:58,170 --> 00:20:03,390 even by violent means, which then once was the overriding power is removed. 179 00:20:03,390 --> 00:20:15,190 They start to seek for for a national state of their own with endless conflicts over borders and minorities of a kind which I just been describing. 180 00:20:15,190 --> 00:20:20,290 I also mentioned another way in which ethnic minorities is going to be created by arbitrary, 181 00:20:20,290 --> 00:20:24,640 sudden changes in boundaries caused by the collapse of of large empires. 182 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:31,330 This is the case of the Soviet Union in 1991 when the Soviet Union decided to abolish itself. 183 00:20:31,330 --> 00:20:38,260 And there were, as I mentioned, 24 million people of so-called Russian nationality living in the republics of the Soviet Union, 184 00:20:38,260 --> 00:20:46,780 outside the Russian Federation. And here they are. This is a map of the lands in 1994, three, three years after the separation. 185 00:20:46,780 --> 00:20:54,400 Here is Russia proper. Here, here is what the Russians will the near abroad, those republics of the former Soviet Union, 186 00:20:54,400 --> 00:21:02,260 which are joining the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states of Georgia, Azerbaijan and so on. 187 00:21:02,260 --> 00:21:14,560 All of them had Russian populations in them, indicated in red, mostly in Kazakhstan and also in Kyrgyzstan and the other Central Asian states. 188 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:21,520 And these are now in a rather problematic position. Some of the states on the left, as they are, 189 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:28,420 their birthrates have been typically smaller or lower than those of the native population other than the Kazakhs and the Kyrgyz. 190 00:21:28,420 --> 00:21:31,750 But that's not the major issue. The major issue is one of politics and power. 191 00:21:31,750 --> 00:21:35,710 And the extent to which they are expected to integrate by learning Kazakh could be coming, 192 00:21:35,710 --> 00:21:43,640 as it were, Kazakhs and Russians, very difficult and yet unsolved political problem. 193 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,450 Within the Russian Federation itself, there is enormous ethnic diversity, 194 00:21:47,450 --> 00:21:55,220 even though the Russian Federation or Russia's divested itself of its ethnic hinterland, 195 00:21:55,220 --> 00:22:00,230 all these peripheral republics, there are still tremendous variation within Russia itself. 196 00:22:00,230 --> 00:22:06,980 These this is a map of the crude birth rate by geographical region in Russia. 197 00:22:06,980 --> 00:22:13,820 Over here is, um. Moscow, I can't leave Moscow must see that here. 198 00:22:13,820 --> 00:22:20,840 St. Petersburg will will be up here and you can see how much Russia there is to the east of Moscow and St. Petersburg, 199 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:30,540 which to us seems quite a long way, is already a. The populations here are very, very sparsely spread. 200 00:22:30,540 --> 00:22:37,740 These are these are huge areas with quite small populations. Nonetheless, they are not mostly Russian. 201 00:22:37,740 --> 00:22:43,710 The ethnic Russian population is mostly in the western part here and decreases 202 00:22:43,710 --> 00:22:49,860 in numbers as we go further to the east of the populations down here are very, 203 00:22:49,860 --> 00:22:58,170 very, very predominantly of Muslim religion and Turkic language and ethnic origin over here 204 00:22:58,170 --> 00:23:04,020 that most of McGilligan ethnic origin and not ethnic Russian population size small, 205 00:23:04,020 --> 00:23:13,620 even though area huge. And one of the concerns which the Russian Federation has, which was even more potent in Soviet times for obvious reasons, 206 00:23:13,620 --> 00:23:20,760 was the birth rate is differential, that here we have the lowest birthrate is just a crude birth rate. 207 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,580 It's between six and seven in these green areas, 208 00:23:23,580 --> 00:23:32,220 which are mostly Russian Slavic populations speak the Russian language, Orthodox religion, if any religion at all. 209 00:23:32,220 --> 00:23:43,260 The yellow areas are about birthweight about eight and the red area is a group of about 12, particularly as you see in in the Muslim Turkic areas, 210 00:23:43,260 --> 00:23:51,000 including Chechnya and the other trouble spots which erupt into our news headlines from time to time. 211 00:23:51,000 --> 00:24:01,380 And so the balance is changing even in in in the Russian Federation, although less fast than it was in the Soviet Union before 1991. 212 00:24:01,380 --> 00:24:05,460 And here's a final example of population change. 213 00:24:05,460 --> 00:24:12,390 As a result of a combination of immigration, plus considerably a different birth rates. 214 00:24:12,390 --> 00:24:18,840 Here are the countries of the United States from the US Census of this is two thousand 2000, 215 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:23,550 showing the proportion of the residents in different counties identifying as Hispanic. 216 00:24:23,550 --> 00:24:27,000 And as you see that, the dark green, some sixty one to one hundred percent. 217 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:35,460 Well, no. One hundred percent, but that's a majority. Hispanic is dark, dark green, and getting home for the Hispanics is the bit green. 218 00:24:35,460 --> 00:24:41,130 And this is these these areas are increasing in frequency, the dark green ones as well all the time, 219 00:24:41,130 --> 00:24:49,080 because because of the migration of many hundreds of thousands of people from Latin America every year into the US, 220 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,710 plus, of course, the quite considerable TFR differences, 221 00:24:52,710 --> 00:24:58,720 the Hispanic TFR in the US is about two point nine five that of the non Hispanic white population, 222 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:06,660 about one point eighty five that of other minorities, usually quite low Asians lower them than the European people of European origin, for example. 223 00:25:06,660 --> 00:25:16,470 So all sorts of change happening there, of which more in a moment. 224 00:25:16,470 --> 00:25:22,890 Why do minorities often have not always often have different demographic characteristics? 225 00:25:22,890 --> 00:25:24,660 This is an unsolved problem. 226 00:25:24,660 --> 00:25:33,650 It's a kind of subset, if you like, of demographic transition theory, but rather a rather messy one and a complication to it. 227 00:25:33,650 --> 00:25:39,740 It used to be thought, particularly by sociologists, that the main, 228 00:25:39,740 --> 00:25:46,550 if not the only reasons why one observed differences in birth rates and death rates between marriage 229 00:25:46,550 --> 00:25:51,080 characteristics between different ethnic groups was because of their different socioeconomic status, 230 00:25:51,080 --> 00:26:00,080 because of the socioeconomic characteristics. That's the so called characteristics hypothesis that because certainly most immigrant groups of most 231 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,700 ethnic groups of immigrant origin tends to come from poorer countries in the 20th century anyway, 232 00:26:04,700 --> 00:26:09,650 almost by definition, they occupied a lower place in the labour market. 233 00:26:09,650 --> 00:26:12,590 Their income levels were lower, the education levels were lower. 234 00:26:12,590 --> 00:26:19,940 And this is the nature of things, as you would expect in any kind of demographic transition theory led to higher birth rates, 235 00:26:19,940 --> 00:26:25,910 which would diminish in time as as populations if they were allowed to. 236 00:26:25,910 --> 00:26:30,320 If discrimination and other handicaps didn't prevent them from doing so, they could move up. 237 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:34,790 The social hierarchy acquired the same kind of characteristics as the majority population. 238 00:26:34,790 --> 00:26:41,930 That being the case, the ethnic differentials in infertility and death rate would disappear and you have a much more 239 00:26:41,930 --> 00:26:47,960 homogeneous population at the end of the day from the point of view of demographic behaviour. 240 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:54,020 That clearly hasn't happened and a number of other modifications that those motions, 241 00:26:54,020 --> 00:26:58,970 which are specific, more specific to the minority situation, have been developed. 242 00:26:58,970 --> 00:27:09,380 The most notable being the so-called minority status hypothesis, which is a confusing one because it operates in two different directions at once. 243 00:27:09,380 --> 00:27:21,060 The. One way of interpreting a thinking about minority status is that if ethnic minority groups recognise the handicaps which they face, 244 00:27:21,060 --> 00:27:23,850 the hostility which they may face in the majority population, 245 00:27:23,850 --> 00:27:31,260 the lower social prestige which they may enjoy the handicap to the social promotion which they high birthrates may generate, 246 00:27:31,260 --> 00:27:38,670 then they may realising these handicaps take steps to to moderate them and reduce them. 247 00:27:38,670 --> 00:27:44,490 And the obvious example of that is the remarkable behaviour of Jews who moved into the United States 248 00:27:44,490 --> 00:27:51,180 and into Western Europe after the pogroms in Russia in the 1980s onwards in quite large numbers. 249 00:27:51,180 --> 00:28:02,640 Many of them came from small rural towns which were badly educated, had high birthrates and were regarded as being highly alien and undesirable. 250 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,570 But certainly in Western Europe and to some extent in the US as well, 251 00:28:06,570 --> 00:28:11,760 an impoverished population regarded as a problem within a very short space of time, 252 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:20,310 that demographic transition had accelerated and had overtaken the demographic transition of some of which is going on at the 253 00:28:20,310 --> 00:28:26,100 same time amongst the majority population in Western Europe and the US at the end of the 19th century through the 20th century, 254 00:28:26,100 --> 00:28:31,350 so that Jewish fertility for the most part in these areas has since then and up 255 00:28:31,350 --> 00:28:36,840 to the present day being lower than that of the average for party for that, 256 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:41,880 because partly for many other reasons, a Jewish social status has improved. 257 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:47,550 Jewish occupational status is higher than average. Typically in Western countries, income levels are higher than average. 258 00:28:47,550 --> 00:28:55,320 Education levels are often very much higher than average, and the numbers are declining relative to the majority. 259 00:28:55,320 --> 00:29:04,740 As a consequence, this causes concern in Jewish populations, in Jewish organisations both in the West Western Europe and in the US, 260 00:29:04,740 --> 00:29:13,110 as a chief rabbi, Jonathan Sacks said in a book of his which is entitled Shall We Have Grandchildren? 261 00:29:13,110 --> 00:29:18,750 Jewish numbers are declining in those populations, partly because the birth rate is so low, 262 00:29:18,750 --> 00:29:29,340 partly because of assimilation of people drifting out of the Jewish category, being perhaps having some vestigial Jewish identity, 263 00:29:29,340 --> 00:29:36,660 but not identifying themselves as Jewish to synagogue authority authorities, not not taking part in Jewish rituals and therefore being lost, 264 00:29:36,660 --> 00:29:44,610 as it were, the population, at least to the point of view of statistics, if not for the point of view of some kind of residual consciousness. 265 00:29:44,610 --> 00:29:50,860 There are other examples of that. The Jewish example is perhaps the obvious one. 266 00:29:50,860 --> 00:29:57,820 Another manifestation of minority status is exactly the opposite, that individuals populations, rather, 267 00:29:57,820 --> 00:30:03,100 will will will protect their minority status by emphasising the demographic differences, 268 00:30:03,100 --> 00:30:10,750 particularly the high birth rate and particularly the rule against about marriage. 269 00:30:10,750 --> 00:30:14,320 One example of this, I suppose family, all demographers are the Hutterites. 270 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:21,910 The Hutterites are a minority which has preserved the minority status by by geographical segregation, 271 00:30:21,910 --> 00:30:33,040 by the insistence that those who who who marry out of the group will leave the group by a powerful presence to prevent people doing that, 272 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,980 if possible, that they are given a year of freedom, as you know, 273 00:30:35,980 --> 00:30:42,910 and in youth to try the outside world and see if they can they want it or if they can stand it. 274 00:30:42,910 --> 00:30:50,620 And that's called by some sociologists defensive structuring that patterns of behaviour develop in society, 275 00:30:50,620 --> 00:30:57,550 which tend to preserve the culture, preserve the language, keep out outsiders hostile way, but just just keep them at arm's length. 276 00:30:57,550 --> 00:31:03,560 Another example, curiously enough, comes from the Jewish population itself, from from the Haredi, 277 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:15,370 the ultra-Orthodox Jews who are notable in places like Stanford, Hill in London and who are numerous and increasing in number in Israel itself, 278 00:31:15,370 --> 00:31:22,060 where where the notion of the strict segregation of roles in the sexes is preserved as it 279 00:31:22,060 --> 00:31:27,220 is in the Hutterites and on to other similar groups where contraception is not practised, 280 00:31:27,220 --> 00:31:35,000 where birth rates are very high, and where interaction with other members of the population is kept as an absolute minimum. 281 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:42,500 Consequently, the numbers increase rapidly, and this is thought to be one reason why the birth rate of Jews as a whole in the UK is actually going up. 282 00:31:42,500 --> 00:31:48,890 And also the birth rate of Jews in Israel, unusually, is going up because the numbers of the Haredi, 283 00:31:48,890 --> 00:31:58,280 especially in a very hygienic environment like Britain or Israel, are not kept in check by any kind of high mortality or quite the contrary. 284 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:05,600 And numbers are growing quite fast. And this causes some concern in Jewish Israel because, of course, 285 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:12,860 under the the the way in which the Jewish constitutionals Jewish politics works in Israel, 286 00:32:12,860 --> 00:32:18,680 the Likud Religious Party has particular privileges which enable large numbers 287 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:24,860 of the Haredi in Israel to remain out of the workforce until about age 40, 288 00:32:24,860 --> 00:32:26,210 studying rather than working. 289 00:32:26,210 --> 00:32:36,080 And wives earn the money and surviving on very generous government handouts, which increase with family size as a kind of family policy. 290 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:42,500 So quite an interesting, complex little problem there. Which one of us, one of the human sciences found this last year. 291 00:32:42,500 --> 00:32:47,990 A very excellent thesis about. So. 292 00:32:47,990 --> 00:32:57,350 All sorts of reasons why that ethnic minority differences, some of which may persist and some of which may or may not persist, 293 00:32:57,350 --> 00:33:03,980 which which in them in the 20th century have really become salient because of the rise of democracy, 294 00:33:03,980 --> 00:33:11,150 because of the rise of human rights, because of the the consciousness which arose for reasons beyond my capacity to 295 00:33:11,150 --> 00:33:19,760 explain in the 19th century of of a much more interest in an ethnic ethnic identity, 296 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,010 in old languages, in old customs, 297 00:33:22,010 --> 00:33:32,420 and on which led a large number of of intellectuals to research the various rather submerged ethnic differences which still existed in their country, 298 00:33:32,420 --> 00:33:38,600 and try and revive them and try and take an interest in the Finnish language in Swedish Finland, 299 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:47,720 in Welsh and Gaelic in Breton, Provençal in France, even sometimes in the 20th century as well, raising languages. 300 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:57,170 Dracula like from the dead by huge infusions of public money. The last person to speak, Cornish, died about 1850, if I recall correctly. 301 00:33:57,170 --> 00:34:02,480 Nonetheless, Cornish is now alive and well. Street names are being renamed in Cornish. 302 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:07,670 This is only possible through through government recognition of minority rights. 303 00:34:07,670 --> 00:34:14,570 They've had to be recreated from the grave and the infusion of public money into supporting it. 304 00:34:14,570 --> 00:34:22,280 And you will see that the proliferation of of Welsh roadsigns throughout Wales or the 305 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,600 fact that Rexon is now designations itself to be the first bilingual town in England. 306 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:32,330 All sorts of a passage to this council continue. Um, well, 307 00:34:32,330 --> 00:34:40,130 this has led to is a great interest in ethnic categorisation that people who are conscious of belonging to to ethnic minority 308 00:34:40,130 --> 00:34:49,460 groups of various kinds of immigrant origin or of of domestic indigenous origin are required to be labelled as that, 309 00:34:49,460 --> 00:34:58,430 partly for reasons of preserving a group identity, partly for reasons of trying to to make sure that they have an appropriate slice of the cake, 310 00:34:58,430 --> 00:35:01,700 and particularly if they regard themselves as being disadvantaged, 311 00:35:01,700 --> 00:35:06,190 they and governments feel that those populations have to be identified in order that 312 00:35:06,190 --> 00:35:10,160 they can be targeted with appropriate funds and protected from discrimination. 313 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:20,000 Consequently, an enormous expansion of of questions about ethnic minority status or ethnic status routine. 314 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:26,300 Now to ask people what their ethnic group is, almost anything which happens in this country, 315 00:35:26,300 --> 00:35:32,270 you would have had to have answered questions about your self-described ethnic identity when you applied to join the university. 316 00:35:32,270 --> 00:35:35,960 I believe if you apply for any grant, 317 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:42,710 you will be asked to identify yourself according to ethnic group and possibly even religion in some local authorities. 318 00:35:42,710 --> 00:35:48,650 If you wish to have planning permission to erect a garden shed, you have to state what ethnic group you belong to. 319 00:35:48,650 --> 00:35:53,570 And these are the categorisations of the England 2011 census. 320 00:35:53,570 --> 00:36:00,200 I don't know if you can read the labels. There are at least three questions which relate to identity. 321 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:06,080 One, the ethnic group question, which has various subdivisions here white, English, 322 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:11,540 Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish, Gypsy, Irish traveller, etc. 323 00:36:11,540 --> 00:36:15,020 Black, white, mixed, white and black, Caribbean and so on. 324 00:36:15,020 --> 00:36:26,060 Asian, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, African, Caribbean, um, other black and other ethnic group, Arab and, and so on. 325 00:36:26,060 --> 00:36:34,380 Religion sorts of religions. Any other religion right in you will all be well, well aware of the way which some people take this for a ride. 326 00:36:34,380 --> 00:36:39,140 There were I think three hundred thousand Jedi knights in the 2001 census, 327 00:36:39,140 --> 00:36:44,750 um a new a new, rather vague question about how to describe your national identity. 328 00:36:44,750 --> 00:36:52,470 Um, you can write anything you like in that in that box and also asking about birthplace. 329 00:36:52,470 --> 00:37:04,170 Not citizenship, curiously enough. Similar sorts of things in the US, I'm sorry, this reproduce very badly, it probably isn't isn't very legible. 330 00:37:04,170 --> 00:37:14,280 The United States has three or had three, in fact, four birthplace, three completely separate systems of ethnic categorisation, 331 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:21,270 a consequence of different kinds of political pressures emanating from different kinds of self-identified groups, 332 00:37:21,270 --> 00:37:27,580 which the political system had somehow to accommodate. Even that makes the demographic data very messy. 333 00:37:27,580 --> 00:37:33,150 First of all, you've got the traditional race question that's on here. 334 00:37:33,150 --> 00:37:41,640 First of all, you've got a question on Hispanic origin. People are invited to say where they are or are not of Hispanic origin if they are Mexican, 335 00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:46,350 Puerto Rican, Cuban or other, then they asked what their race is. 336 00:37:46,350 --> 00:37:53,240 Racism is an acceptable category in the US. It's been asked in the census are very, very long time. 337 00:37:53,240 --> 00:38:01,740 And it is independent of Hispanic origin, a person of Hispanic origin can be of any race, including a North American Indian, 338 00:38:01,740 --> 00:38:10,850 but that is perhaps rather unusual for the person's race is also being white, black, African American, Negro, American. 339 00:38:10,850 --> 00:38:18,050 Interesting how terms go in and out of fashion and acceptability. American Indian or Alaskan native. 340 00:38:18,050 --> 00:38:24,540 Right. Which one? Filipino, Asian, Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese and so forth. 341 00:38:24,540 --> 00:38:35,630 Or any other race. And it's possible here also to put down what your ancestry is, and it's also possible in two thousand census right down, 342 00:38:35,630 --> 00:38:43,640 more than one ancestry and ancestry became so popular that there were people putting down to three or four different ancestries, 343 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:49,010 reflecting correctly their perception about about their parentage and parentage. 344 00:38:49,010 --> 00:38:55,550 And all of these are independent. And so the nightmare which the Bureau of the Census has used in formulating 345 00:38:55,550 --> 00:39:00,080 population distributions and especially population projections can only be imagined. 346 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:06,590 This one one's actually dropped in the 2010 to the considerable consternation of some of the ethnic groups, 347 00:39:06,590 --> 00:39:13,940 because it meant that people who came from from the Middle East who regard themselves as Arab really 348 00:39:13,940 --> 00:39:20,810 had a choice in terms of a race between calling themselves white and calling themselves black. 349 00:39:20,810 --> 00:39:26,870 Not one of these ones would apply at all. A lot a lot of them objected to the notion of trying to call themselves white, 350 00:39:26,870 --> 00:39:31,280 did not differentiate themselves sufficiently from the rest of the population. 351 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,840 They felt that as Arabs, as people from the Middle East or from North Africa, who also were, 352 00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:41,390 as it were expected to call themselves, whites, that in fact they were treated as white by the rest of the population. 353 00:39:41,390 --> 00:39:47,360 They suffered from disadvantages of various kinds, which ought to be recognised in the census by enabling them to answer this question. 354 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:54,920 But that wasn't that wasn't asked. It was very interesting that these these questions are which are all self-described, you understand, 355 00:39:54,920 --> 00:40:01,700 are often strongly supported by the groups which are thereby identified and are not an imposition on them, although some regard them as an imposition. 356 00:40:01,700 --> 00:40:06,320 Others regard themselves as being very antithetical not to national identity. 357 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:10,070 In France, for example, all this would be completely illegal. 358 00:40:10,070 --> 00:40:21,590 The French constitution emphasising citizenship and the unity of citizenship, however, not quite corresponding to reality, 359 00:40:21,590 --> 00:40:30,980 that that assumption of equality might be nonetheless takes a very strong stand against identification on religious or ethnic or racial grounds. 360 00:40:30,980 --> 00:40:34,160 Because this is a complete contradiction of the French constitution, 361 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:39,920 which emphasises the equality of citizens, which is a point of view which perhaps would have some sympathy. 362 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:48,710 So there's this this pattern is very typical of the Anglo-Saxon countries Australia, Canada, New Zealand, America, United States, 363 00:40:48,710 --> 00:41:00,320 I mean U.K., much less on the continent where we are register based data are based upon upon parental citizenship and birthplace alone. 364 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:07,450 And ethnic groups only appear in a few censuses, particularly those of Russia and elsewhere. 365 00:41:07,450 --> 00:41:12,280 What actually happens to ethnic data, 366 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:19,060 these are some data showing the total fertility rate of ethnic minorities in the U.K. constructed very laboriously by 367 00:41:19,060 --> 00:41:27,490 the so-called own child method because data on a categorisation by ethnic group is not requested on the registration. 368 00:41:27,490 --> 00:41:37,690 So it's got to be done by an indirect method. As you see from 1979 on, the TFR of all groups has been going down. 369 00:41:37,690 --> 00:41:44,710 The yellow is Bangladeshi. This is Pakistani. And you can see that in the 1970s, 1970s, 1980s, 370 00:41:44,710 --> 00:41:51,550 the two fathers groups in the UK was rather like what it was in Pakistan and Bangladesh that say five or six, 371 00:41:51,550 --> 00:41:57,970 very much higher than that of the national average. The national average is this heavy line here. 372 00:41:57,970 --> 00:42:05,620 The Indian population, much there to begin with, dropping down just below the national average, 373 00:42:05,620 --> 00:42:12,130 the African population is this one here somewhat above maintain probably by very considerable 374 00:42:12,130 --> 00:42:17,260 increases in the African population from high fertility African countries like Somalia, 375 00:42:17,260 --> 00:42:25,410 where the TFR of Somalis in Britain is about five. But that other Africans in Britain is much lower, the Chinese population, much, 376 00:42:25,410 --> 00:42:31,010 much typically Chinese immigrants into Europe adopt very low fertility patterns, 377 00:42:31,010 --> 00:42:35,390 possibly following what Kerry would call a Jewish road to social mobility. 378 00:42:35,390 --> 00:42:38,180 And they are indeed a very successful group. 379 00:42:38,180 --> 00:42:43,940 So very important realise that by no means all ethnic minority populations have got higher birth rates than the native population. 380 00:42:43,940 --> 00:42:49,370 This is not true in a number of cases. And in all cases the difference is not all that great. 381 00:42:49,370 --> 00:42:57,140 This is just a model of the Chinese TFR in the in the UK showing an asymptote of about one point three. 382 00:42:57,140 --> 00:43:00,950 That is to say that it looks like stabilising at about one point three. This may change. 383 00:43:00,950 --> 00:43:10,200 Part of that is due to postponement and then the postponement comes to an end. It'll go up again, as in other populations which postpone fertility. 384 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:21,620 Here are some US data, some of these go back to to 1960, from 1960 to 2000, the yellow line is the whole population of the US. 385 00:43:21,620 --> 00:43:28,730 The non Hispanic white population is in this one here, about one point eighty five, 386 00:43:28,730 --> 00:43:33,200 compared with an average of about two point one, which is the overall American level, 387 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:41,750 that two point one moved up from one point eighty five, very much by the large and growing population of of Hispanic people, 388 00:43:41,750 --> 00:43:45,140 whether TFR is about two point nine five and not changing very much. 389 00:43:45,140 --> 00:43:56,000 As you can see, the black population, of course, not of a recent conclusion at all, showing some convergence down to to the to the national average. 390 00:43:56,000 --> 00:44:02,420 It's not distinguishable in the year 2000. So in some sense, the convergence, others are the other patterns. 391 00:44:02,420 --> 00:44:06,660 So far, not very much convergence at all. 392 00:44:06,660 --> 00:44:15,720 That depends quite a lot upon the balance of migration compared with the number of people of the same ethnic origin born in the country, 393 00:44:15,720 --> 00:44:19,950 which we are concerned with, you can see here from these data which go back to the 1970s, 394 00:44:19,950 --> 00:44:28,170 a consistent difference between the TFR of Pakistanis, according to whether they are born in the UK or born in Pakistan itself, 395 00:44:28,170 --> 00:44:41,030 the the open borders here are two thousand Pakistani women who are who are born. 396 00:44:41,030 --> 00:44:51,790 Now, the phrasing is bad. These are women who are born in Pakistan, residing in the U.K. As you can see, the white bars have the highest TFR. 397 00:44:51,790 --> 00:44:59,440 The pale grey bars are people of Pakistani origin born in the U.K. And you can see that in each case that there's a there's a difference. 398 00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:06,160 Those born of you have consistently, in some cases, much lower birth rates than those born in Pakistan, as you would imagine. 399 00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:14,180 But it's an illustration of of of the kind of assimilation, at least to local levels of fertility, which can be seen there. 400 00:45:14,180 --> 00:45:20,040 That even so in the latest data here, which are quite which are not up to date. 401 00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:28,350 The UK born Pakistani population still has a TFR about two point six, which is a lot higher than the national average. 402 00:45:28,350 --> 00:45:35,230 In the Indian case, the chief has gone down much more, and that has already started to make that ethnic population age, 403 00:45:35,230 --> 00:45:41,020 ethnic populations are by no means always youthful like this Pakistani population is. 404 00:45:41,020 --> 00:45:51,830 In the 2001 one census, the Indian population shows marked signs of population ageing, as you would expect, given the reduction in the in that TFR. 405 00:45:51,830 --> 00:46:02,600 Elsewhere, all sorts of changes are afoot, persistent differences in in birthrates and also in migration leading to to to the diminution 406 00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:08,600 of the proportion of population in some groups and the increase in the fortunes of others. 407 00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:14,120 Here in New Zealand, the people of European origin, the top dark blue light, are obviously heading downwards. 408 00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:22,700 Curiously, the population of Maori origin, not partly because Maori origin is is a very fluid definition. 409 00:46:22,700 --> 00:46:26,930 A lot of people in New Zealand have part Maori, part European origin, 410 00:46:26,930 --> 00:46:38,590 and the numbers who report themselves as being Maori changes somewhat from time to time, depending upon upon the mood of the time, as it were. 411 00:46:38,590 --> 00:46:45,100 Ethnic change in the US is projected by the US Census Bureau is quite dramatic. 412 00:46:45,100 --> 00:46:49,660 The blue line here, a thin one going up sharply, is the Hispanic population. 413 00:46:49,660 --> 00:46:52,450 The red line at the top is the white, non Hispanic population. 414 00:46:52,450 --> 00:46:59,880 And you can see that the two are heading towards convergence, admittedly, at the very long range of the end of the century for the US, 415 00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:08,320 because the census projects that the US white, non Hispanic population will become an overall minority in the US by about two thousand forty two. 416 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:12,280 And no one seems to be disputing this is almost solely as carved in stone. 417 00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:13,990 There's nothing can stop that happening. 418 00:47:13,990 --> 00:47:20,170 Very interesting new development and something similar, as I mentioned on Tuesday, is happening in European countries as well. 419 00:47:20,170 --> 00:47:28,780 These are defined on a registration basis, on the whole, not an ethnic basis by registration data in various countries which collect this information. 420 00:47:28,780 --> 00:47:35,120 The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and so on. I will skip that. 421 00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:40,130 It has been suggested, therefore, that we're now in the middle of a sort of third demographic transition, 422 00:47:40,130 --> 00:47:46,010 the first demographic transition whereby birth and death rates move from a high position with low population growth 423 00:47:46,010 --> 00:47:53,480 via a version of population growth to to a new balance where birth and death rates are both low and natural. 424 00:47:53,480 --> 00:48:01,100 Increase is moderate to the second transition of which we've all heard this revolution in family and living arrangements and sexual behaviour, 425 00:48:01,100 --> 00:48:06,320 births outside marriage and and possibly a third chance transition where the population composition itself 426 00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:14,530 is altered as a process by the presence of international migration and differential rates of reproduction. 427 00:48:14,530 --> 00:48:20,170 That's me all alter and be vitiated by much more interesting developments to do 428 00:48:20,170 --> 00:48:25,510 with with love and sex to do particularly with love and sex between ethnic groups, 429 00:48:25,510 --> 00:48:32,530 with the production of children of mixed ancestry who may be happy to consider themselves to be of mixed ancestry and who identify 430 00:48:32,530 --> 00:48:40,240 themselves as being of mixed ancestry voluntarily in questions of the census in this country and in the US and elsewhere. 431 00:48:40,240 --> 00:48:53,170 Six hundred and sixty thousand in all in the census of 2001, leading to what Jones, the great geneticist, has described as a brown future. 432 00:48:53,170 --> 00:48:55,750 Here are three very prominent people of mixed origin. 433 00:48:55,750 --> 00:49:03,460 The person on the top left, you may recognise Lewis Hamilton, is the person down below Britain's champion motor racing driver. 434 00:49:03,460 --> 00:49:13,750 And this young lady here was also an explosion, was was a candidate for Miss France who was dismissed from her, her status for some minor peccadillo. 435 00:49:13,750 --> 00:49:20,230 And she might seek asylum from the beastly French in England, but I'm sure she'd be very welcome. 436 00:49:20,230 --> 00:49:29,580 These are these are unions outside one's own group recorded in the labour force in Great Britain, not being up to date. 437 00:49:29,580 --> 00:49:36,890 It's not more than 10 years ago, but the pattern is much to say. 438 00:49:36,890 --> 00:49:45,010 Now, what we've got here is a percentage of people belonging to various different ethnic groups who are in unions, 439 00:49:45,010 --> 00:49:49,180 marital or otherwise, outside, outside their own ethnic group. 440 00:49:49,180 --> 00:49:54,160 And you can see amongst the black Caribbean population, amongst men, men are on the rights of women. 441 00:49:54,160 --> 00:50:00,150 On the left, the proportion is up to 35 percent more amongst men than amongst women. 442 00:50:00,150 --> 00:50:06,550 A high proportion of black Africans, much less amongst Indians, much, much lower amongst Pakistanis and especially Bangladeshis. 443 00:50:06,550 --> 00:50:08,170 Hardly any ethnic intermarriage. 444 00:50:08,170 --> 00:50:17,980 That a very interesting reversal in young Chinese, where a high proportion of Chinese women are in unions with with non Chinese men. 445 00:50:17,980 --> 00:50:22,120 That is the case with Chinese men in respect of non Chinese women. 446 00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:27,040 This looks wrong, but it's repeated over and over again in all the surveys which have been made. 447 00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:33,480 And it's clearly a reality. And as you as you see it, a very high proportion indeed. 448 00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:41,370 And this means, of course, the populations of ethnic origin are becoming increasingly themselves mixed. 449 00:50:41,370 --> 00:50:46,350 This is the part this is the more intelligible graph. 450 00:50:46,350 --> 00:50:55,770 This this is the population of Caribbean origin, some some level of Caribbean origin in England, Wales, 2001, by age nought to four, 10 to 14. 451 00:50:55,770 --> 00:51:02,070 And so the Darbar is a population of Caribbean origin of Caribbean origin. 452 00:51:02,070 --> 00:51:08,340 The Pilbara is the population of Caribbean origin of mixed Caribbean origin mix usually mix Caribbean and white. 453 00:51:08,340 --> 00:51:17,000 And as you can see, as time is going on, the mix part of the Caribbean origin population is becoming predominant over the other. 454 00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:23,210 That has led to the supposition that in due course, the process of ethnic intermarriage fostered some groups slow than others, 455 00:51:23,210 --> 00:51:29,810 will lead to populations of mixed origin, becoming, as it were, the most important ethnic group numerically. 456 00:51:29,810 --> 00:51:36,230 This is a very long range stochastic projection made by their show of showing in the orange line the rise of 457 00:51:36,230 --> 00:51:44,060 the population of of ethnic or ethnic origin on very conservative assumptions over the next hundred years, 458 00:51:44,060 --> 00:51:47,580 very long range of what can happen in 100 years. 459 00:51:47,580 --> 00:51:53,570 But these are very conservative assumptions and it may well be much higher than that and probably will be. 460 00:51:53,570 --> 00:51:57,860 So the question arises, is this something which will affect the whole world? 461 00:51:57,860 --> 00:52:04,250 Is the whole world going to become as mixed as it looks as though Western populations are going to do? 462 00:52:04,250 --> 00:52:09,920 Probably not, partly because some of them are too big for that to happen. 463 00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:16,700 It's not possible for the populations of India and China, which are in any case already mixed, especially in the case of India, 464 00:52:16,700 --> 00:52:26,120 to become mixed through immigration because there aren't enough immigrants in the world and not remotely possible an imaginable level of immigration, 465 00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:33,800 which would make in India as mixed by immigration as UK or Germany or the United States is big. 466 00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:39,860 And so far, the patterns of diversity integration in the Third World are quite modest. 467 00:52:39,860 --> 00:52:48,530 Many of them, of course, are already diverse because of the inclusion of a large number of traditional native persons of different origin. 468 00:52:48,530 --> 00:53:01,270 That's different from what the prospect of most of Third World countries becoming as diverse as Western Europe has done not seems to be rather small. 469 00:53:01,270 --> 00:53:06,880 For the foreseeable future, we may have all sorts of interesting connotations, the point of view of international relations, 470 00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:13,690 power relations and the perception of what national interest actually means in the West, 471 00:53:13,690 --> 00:53:20,500 which is more diverse compared with the rest of the world, which must remain less diverse, especially in the bigger countries. 472 00:53:20,500 --> 00:53:27,813 So on that contentious political point, I will stop. Thank you very much.