1 00:00:02,380 --> 00:00:09,220 This is a problem that I started off with two terms ago and echoed by Adam Smith 2 00:00:09,220 --> 00:00:14,680 in 1990 776 in his enquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of Nations, 3 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:23,080 pointing out that, generally speaking, population was regarded then as in antiquity as an indication of a successful state in a prosperous state. 4 00:00:23,080 --> 00:00:31,150 The reverse of that stagnation, horror's decline was regarded as a clear indication that things are badly wrong. 5 00:00:31,150 --> 00:00:37,090 Such things are happening now in a number of very important countries and will spread to too many others. 6 00:00:37,090 --> 00:00:44,890 These are the topics I'm going to talk about the origins of the of the fear of population decline, the history of responses to it, 7 00:00:44,890 --> 00:00:52,630 the some modern examples of population policy and and some attempts at measuring the effectiveness of 8 00:00:52,630 --> 00:01:01,220 those policies and the results which those have generated to remind you of the antiquity of all of this. 9 00:01:01,220 --> 00:01:10,870 As I mentioned, the antiquity of population policy and concern about poverty, law, regulation of fertility go right back to the earliest times. 10 00:01:10,870 --> 00:01:16,840 Some of the earliest written codes go back to almost 2000 B.C. with the Code of Hammurabi, 11 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,220 which was conceived with all sorts of things, including relations between men and women, 12 00:01:21,220 --> 00:01:32,950 but also included measures to encourage marriage, encourage reproduction, encourage fertility in those days as in most successive millennia. 13 00:01:32,950 --> 00:01:42,850 A population was one of the most important factors of production in times when productivity increases very difficult to obtain and population 14 00:01:42,850 --> 00:01:51,430 size and population growth was a very clear measure of the size of of the nation's economy and the prospects for its defence through it, 15 00:01:51,430 --> 00:02:01,780 through its armed forces and the prospects for improving the environment through great works like building canals and defensive walls, 16 00:02:01,780 --> 00:02:05,780 as well as more frivolous ones like building permits. This remains true today. 17 00:02:05,780 --> 00:02:11,380 After all, while the most important components of GDP so often cited as a measure of growth, 18 00:02:11,380 --> 00:02:19,290 as a measure of welfare of a country's economy is of course the size of its population. 19 00:02:19,290 --> 00:02:24,150 These you can chart all sorts of interesting examples through history, 20 00:02:24,150 --> 00:02:29,610 which are very, very few here of laws and enactments which are well known to us. 21 00:02:29,610 --> 00:02:37,740 They've come down to us through through through papyri, through inscriptions, on stone and various other documentations in the classical period. 22 00:02:37,740 --> 00:02:46,740 And of course, they're much more abundant documentation from more recent historical periods to attempts to to both both the birth rate, 23 00:02:46,740 --> 00:02:53,910 encourage marriage and acquire population from neighbouring countries also as long as they be to be reasonably loyal. 24 00:02:53,910 --> 00:02:56,940 Quite a few of these, of course, were concerned, not so much at all, 25 00:02:56,940 --> 00:03:02,460 not just for the total population, but particularly with the protection of the size of elites. 26 00:03:02,460 --> 00:03:10,200 The the Roman emperors were quite concerned about the relative size of the patrician class compared with the plebeians. 27 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:19,500 Given the political tensions that existed always between those two great groups of people and the laws of Augustus when he first came to power, 28 00:03:19,500 --> 00:03:25,350 the very first two enactments which he made were concerned with the with the protection of marriage, 29 00:03:25,350 --> 00:03:29,820 the encouragement of fecundity, particularly amongst the patrician class, 30 00:03:29,820 --> 00:03:36,510 by all means of penalties against bachelorhood and rewards for for numerous motherhood in terms of, 31 00:03:36,510 --> 00:03:43,510 amongst other things, changes in laws regarding what you're allowed to wear. 32 00:03:43,510 --> 00:03:51,760 By the time we get to Phillip, the fourth of the 14th and others, we coming to a rather more sophisticated approach. 33 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:57,040 This is a these are more developed states with much more control over the economy, 34 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:02,230 with regular systems of taxation, which could be tweaked or manipulated in order to encourage marriage, 35 00:04:02,230 --> 00:04:08,620 discourage bachelorhood, very much the same sort of thing that Augustus is trying to do one and a half thousand years earlier. 36 00:04:08,620 --> 00:04:14,770 But on a more sophisticated scale and in an economy which is much more recognisably 37 00:04:14,770 --> 00:04:19,090 modern and some of the characters that are well worth noting is traumatised. 38 00:04:19,090 --> 00:04:21,970 Culburra minister in the 40s, 39 00:04:21,970 --> 00:04:31,810 not only it was in charge of and in fact invented a kind of economy which is much more dirigiste than that which existed previously, 40 00:04:31,810 --> 00:04:40,000 the embodiment, if you like, of the mercantilist ideal control of of of manufactures, restriction of imports from overseas, 41 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:45,460 encouragement of of industry, the sort of industrial policy of Mr. Vince Cable is interested in today. 42 00:04:45,460 --> 00:04:53,260 We certainly find favour with Jean-Baptiste Cobell and above all, the protection of population, not just by punishing Batchelor's, 43 00:04:53,260 --> 00:04:59,020 not just by rewarding motherhood and large families with with cash, with medals, 44 00:04:59,020 --> 00:05:03,370 with honours and so on, but also, interestingly, with restricting immigration. 45 00:05:03,370 --> 00:05:09,880 One of the reasons why France did so badly later on in, for example, the Seven Years War was because Colbert, 46 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,930 his predecessor, has restricted immigration from France to New France. 47 00:05:13,930 --> 00:05:20,110 In in Canada, the French population in Canada remained very small because it was being kept at home, 48 00:05:20,110 --> 00:05:27,340 rather shortsightedly one of many reasons why North America speaks English and not, for the most part, French. 49 00:05:27,340 --> 00:05:33,140 Other examples overseas in Japan, which I haven't got time to go into. 50 00:05:33,140 --> 00:05:38,270 The modern world brings a different problem. 51 00:05:38,270 --> 00:05:39,740 Then, of course, 52 00:05:39,740 --> 00:05:49,580 the problem is balancing the forces which led to population decline against population growth in any condition where fertility was natural, 53 00:05:49,580 --> 00:05:54,950 family planning was was effectively unknown and unpractised except by some elites. 54 00:05:54,950 --> 00:05:57,620 Nowadays, because of the demographic transition, 55 00:05:57,620 --> 00:06:03,860 the two centuries of population growth unleashed by the kind of the death rate in the 18th and 19th centuries 56 00:06:03,860 --> 00:06:09,860 is now coming to an end with the wider and wider and wider application of family planning within marriage, 57 00:06:09,860 --> 00:06:17,610 the reduction of fertility, the bringing your birth rates and death rates back into equilibrium, but at much lower levels, of course, than previously. 58 00:06:17,610 --> 00:06:22,970 This was the case bringing in its trained population ageing inevitably with severity, 59 00:06:22,970 --> 00:06:31,100 depending upon the level of the birth rates primarily, and also the prospect of population decline. 60 00:06:31,100 --> 00:06:40,310 This prospect really caused a great deal of concern in the governments and chancelleries of Europe by the first few decades of 61 00:06:40,310 --> 00:06:51,090 the 20th century and provoked a great outpouring of a rather new modern kinds of encouragements to fertility and discouragement, 62 00:06:51,090 --> 00:06:56,900 to family planning of a kind, some of which were were only possible in the 20th century. 63 00:06:56,900 --> 00:06:59,600 This is these are the kind of graphs which caused concern. 64 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:09,150 On the left, you can see the TFR and also the computer family size in France from 1875 to 1976. 65 00:07:09,150 --> 00:07:18,320 If you see the scale very easily with this chart, this is 1975 is nine hundred nineteen hundred and twenty five. 66 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:23,160 Nineteen fifty nine seventy five. This is a tale of two or three. 67 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:33,360 As you can see in France, the period rate has dipped down even before the First World War by about 1913 to about just about two point three, 68 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:44,370 which is about replacement rate after the First World War, during which, of course, it felt very low levels, it fell down further to to lower levels. 69 00:07:44,370 --> 00:07:53,610 And that provoked a concern which in the French case had been a very longstanding dating, of course, from the time when France prematurely, 70 00:07:53,610 --> 00:08:01,860 as it were introduced on a national scale, reduction in the birthrate back in the day at the end of the 18th century. 71 00:08:01,860 --> 00:08:10,320 Here is the parallel graph, almost paragraph of Germany, 1921, 1931, 1941, a TFR one point five two. 72 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:16,290 So falling below replacement back by the 1930s due to quite a severe degree and then following 73 00:08:16,290 --> 00:08:21,630 a rather uneven roller coaster pattern ever since or centred around just about two, 74 00:08:21,630 --> 00:08:26,140 but at the present time well below it. 75 00:08:26,140 --> 00:08:35,260 This generated a great outburst of population projections, a technique, of course, not available to Augustus or Jean-Baptiste Colvard, 76 00:08:35,260 --> 00:08:41,560 but it was possible with the development of demographic statistics to work out what the consequences would be using 77 00:08:41,560 --> 00:08:48,520 the cohort component method or other simpler methods of population projection implied by these very low birth rates. 78 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:57,760 On the left, there are three projections produced by Dr. Enid Charles in the 1930s, which gained very wide publicity. 79 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,720 This is a population projection of the population of England and Wales, 80 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:07,660 given the continuation of the then birth rate, which is slightly below replacement but not very much. 81 00:09:07,660 --> 00:09:14,590 As you can see, it preserved a population of about 40 million, up to two thousand and twenty five or so. 82 00:09:14,590 --> 00:09:21,070 The population is up here somewhere. So it's not grossly out given the areas nor in population projections. 83 00:09:21,070 --> 00:09:29,590 This assumes the continuation of the rate of decline then apparent, and this assumes an even more severe decline, 84 00:09:29,590 --> 00:09:35,620 which has taken the population down, as we see, to about nine or ten million people. 85 00:09:35,620 --> 00:09:39,550 The first times might please the Green Party. It probably will not please anybody else. 86 00:09:39,550 --> 00:09:43,030 And, of course, would imply quite colossal levels of population ageing, 87 00:09:43,030 --> 00:09:47,830 which curiously enough, although no doubt was not the main focus of concern at the time, 88 00:09:47,830 --> 00:09:52,820 the main focus of concern at the time, despite knowledge of population ageing and predictions of it, 89 00:09:52,820 --> 00:09:57,190 was within the kind of numbers, not in changes in the age structure. 90 00:09:57,190 --> 00:10:03,160 And here we've got a similar projection for Germany around the same time. 91 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:10,980 So. Now, the continuation of the then level of fertility, which would keep German population from a high level, as you see, 92 00:10:10,980 --> 00:10:15,540 about 70 million declining slowly and at the then current rate of fertility decline, 93 00:10:15,540 --> 00:10:23,310 which should take it right down to a much lower level, as you see on the dotted line. 94 00:10:23,310 --> 00:10:30,390 By the time we get to the 1930s, net reproduction rates have generally in all these countries fallen below one, as you know, 95 00:10:30,390 --> 00:10:38,790 imply that were that to continue given a stable population, age structure, that the population would would grow or decline. 96 00:10:38,790 --> 00:10:43,590 But by that coefficient over the course of one generation, let's say, 28 years. 97 00:10:43,590 --> 00:10:51,970 So even in Australia, a country with normally a fairly robust birthrate generally is less than one, implying the population will be 96 percent, 98 00:10:51,970 --> 00:10:59,550 the present size in all the then present size in generations time, England, Wales, down to nought point seventy six. 99 00:10:59,550 --> 00:11:07,260 Germany, nought point nine. France, but no point nine point ninety three point eight, even as the states nought point nine. 100 00:11:07,260 --> 00:11:16,200 As I probably said far too often in the past. Very important to realise that low birth rates were achieved back in the 1930s and are nothing new. 101 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,450 And we are very much deluded, I think, 102 00:11:18,450 --> 00:11:27,000 by the disturbing bulge of the baby boom of the 1960s and also by the fact that so many series of data start in 1960 103 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:33,720 right at the top of the boom and don't incorporate because they weren't collected properly data from the 1930s, 104 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:39,150 which gives one a much more accurate picture of when low fertility was achieved. 105 00:11:39,150 --> 00:11:47,070 And and of course, at a time when really very high proportions of population was already practising family planning on a reasonably effective level, 106 00:11:47,070 --> 00:11:53,880 even though it was mostly cause interruptus, plus some barrier methods like the condom, the Dutch cap and other things of that kind of pill, 107 00:11:53,880 --> 00:12:01,540 the IUD injectables all still lay in the future in the 1960s and later. 108 00:12:01,540 --> 00:12:09,770 Well, we should deal with that later on, and that, too, here is a recent pessimistic projection, 109 00:12:09,770 --> 00:12:14,230 even out pessimistic those of England, Wales and France and Germany. 110 00:12:14,230 --> 00:12:20,620 This is a population projection for Japan, which you can see on an official Japanese website, 111 00:12:20,620 --> 00:12:25,000 the website of the National Institute for Social Security and Population Research. 112 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:33,980 It goes a rather ambitiously long period of time and adopts an exceptionally pessimistic view as to the future level of the Japanese birthrate. 113 00:12:33,980 --> 00:12:40,870 This assumes the continuation of the approximately contemporary Japanese TFR one point three four and 114 00:12:40,870 --> 00:12:47,410 expectation of life at birth of about 90 or something of that kind and no migration on migration. 115 00:12:47,410 --> 00:12:52,170 This is very important in Japan is assume that will continue to be the case. 116 00:12:52,170 --> 00:13:01,530 This scale here shows that the population size that scale, their chosen portion of the population in different age groups, 117 00:13:01,530 --> 00:13:05,670 at the risk of being to the tactic, perhaps I should remind you that what this graph shows us, 118 00:13:05,670 --> 00:13:13,950 amongst other things, is the way in which low fertility generates a new population age structure and then holds it constant, 119 00:13:13,950 --> 00:13:19,450 whereas at the same time it leads to a constant reduction in population size. 120 00:13:19,450 --> 00:13:23,980 This dark grey hair is a portion of the population aged over 65. 121 00:13:23,980 --> 00:13:35,420 As you can see, it increases to. Thirty five percent of the population, but by the century, dropping down from a rather for about 20 percent or so, 122 00:13:35,420 --> 00:13:39,530 but then it remains constant, as you would expect, of constant birth rates. 123 00:13:39,530 --> 00:13:45,320 Constant death rates give you a constant population structure. Even if it's an aged one, it doesn't go on getting worse and worse and worse. 124 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,980 This is the population here aged under 15. This is the working age population. 125 00:13:48,980 --> 00:13:55,220 I mean, it's constant forever, but the numbers of people go on fooling with this other person's birth rate, 126 00:13:55,220 --> 00:14:00,620 inevitably starting off at about 130 billion or so at the present time. 127 00:14:00,620 --> 00:14:07,100 By the time we get to twenty one hundred. It's down to about 55 million. 128 00:14:07,100 --> 00:14:13,520 By the time the next century, it's down to to about 12 or 13 million. 129 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:17,330 And that's only about two thousand three hundred or so. The last Japanese emerges. 130 00:14:17,330 --> 00:14:23,150 And when the last Japanese departs, that's the end of the Japanese population. 131 00:14:23,150 --> 00:14:25,340 It's fantasy. I think it's fantasy. 132 00:14:25,340 --> 00:14:31,400 And I don't believe for one moment the Japanese GFR remain at one point three, four, four, two hundred and fifty or three hundred years. 133 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,710 Nonetheless, that's the implication. 134 00:14:33,710 --> 00:14:40,970 And that's a reflection, I suppose one might say, of the kind of gloom which pervades Japanese population outlooks, 135 00:14:40,970 --> 00:14:45,710 which, despite quite low birth in Germany, does not pervade German outlooks. 136 00:14:45,710 --> 00:14:50,000 Anything like so much is much more cheerful about the prospect of of decline. 137 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:59,550 I think it's a generalisation that is the case in Japan, even though they both entered declined around about the same time. 138 00:14:59,550 --> 00:15:05,130 The population ageing pattern you're familiar with on the left is the is the sequence of the 139 00:15:05,130 --> 00:15:12,750 Australian population structure from 1875 up here to 2050 down here for Christmas tree to coffin. 140 00:15:12,750 --> 00:15:17,460 And that's on a percentage basis. It doesn't illustrate production in population size. 141 00:15:17,460 --> 00:15:21,900 Here is the population of west of Germany. 142 00:15:21,900 --> 00:15:28,320 Both of Germany's put together showing both population ageing and population size reduction. 143 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:36,450 Because this is graphing actual numbers and not just percentages, as is the case that this is 1997. 144 00:15:36,450 --> 00:15:42,150 Almost the present day is 2025, 2050 and has two thousand one hundred. 145 00:15:42,150 --> 00:15:49,990 And you can see that not only. Is the population ageing, particularly as the baby boom moves into retirement, but not just for that reason, 146 00:15:49,990 --> 00:15:58,000 primarily because of the progressive reduction of cohort size as a as a sub replacement facility for longer and longer, 147 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:07,150 longer developing a of confidence profile, as in the case of Austria, but also getting narrower and narrower and narrower. 148 00:16:07,150 --> 00:16:18,790 So eventually it will it'll eventually get so narrow if projected on the same kind of timescale as in Japan and become nothing at all. 149 00:16:18,790 --> 00:16:27,850 This does illustrate the reduction in the population size projected by the end of the century compared to it's much more healthy looking at size, 150 00:16:27,850 --> 00:16:42,470 if not shape, in 1997. That I think we can skip over as a consequence of all of this, particularly the end of the baby boom, 151 00:16:42,470 --> 00:16:47,840 the population concerns of the 1930s have somewhat re-emerged in all the more you know, 152 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:58,790 the better informed circumstances in Europe, in the post-war world in the 1970s, 1980s and up to the present day compared with the 1930s. 153 00:16:58,790 --> 00:17:05,360 This map of United Nations shows the proportion of of European countries expressing in the UN's regular 154 00:17:05,360 --> 00:17:14,030 survey whether or not they were concerned about the level of of fertility or not in their populations. 155 00:17:14,030 --> 00:17:22,880 The dark areas are those countries which were which expressed concern about the fertility level and considered to be too low back in 1975. 156 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:28,490 As you can see, only France, Finland and one or two countries down here expressed concern. 157 00:17:28,490 --> 00:17:36,470 The rest were more or less satisfied, not surprisingly, because still in the 1970s, birth rates were roughly the level of replacement, 158 00:17:36,470 --> 00:17:47,120 if only slightly below as 2005, when cyberspace and fertility is is a universal except for Iceland, concern is very much more widespread, 159 00:17:47,120 --> 00:17:54,440 not so much in Scandinavia and in the U.K., where birth rates remain quite close to replacement level, 160 00:17:54,440 --> 00:18:01,730 but even including France quite irrationally because the French birth rate then was about one point nine, something is now two point nought. 161 00:18:01,730 --> 00:18:09,470 No reason for concern in France, but from France's heritage on population matters is much more finely tuned and one might even say neurotic 162 00:18:09,470 --> 00:18:17,360 in respect of fertility and population size than is the case in almost all the other countries in Europe. 163 00:18:17,360 --> 00:18:23,540 These are the origins of the French demographic concern, France, as you know, 164 00:18:23,540 --> 00:18:32,330 was the first country in Europe where national level reductions in the birthrate arising out of the use of parity, 165 00:18:32,330 --> 00:18:37,340 specific family planning was first detected in the parish registers of the 72, 166 00:18:37,340 --> 00:18:44,120 70s and the 70s and 80s by no means across the whole country, but in important areas of the country and in rural areas importantly, 167 00:18:44,120 --> 00:18:51,860 as well as in urban areas, very slowly to begin with and then increasing in power as time went on. 168 00:18:51,860 --> 00:18:58,220 Even then, that caused concern amongst the elite, amongst the clergy, by the government concerned. 169 00:18:58,220 --> 00:19:03,470 The peasants, as it were, were doing their duty in producing a population for France. 170 00:19:03,470 --> 00:19:11,600 And it went on throughout the 19th century and into the 20th century with the consequence that France lost its demographic pre-eminence, 171 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:16,430 as you see, in eighteen hundred French population. Twenty nine million. 172 00:19:16,430 --> 00:19:22,460 It was bigger than any other aggregate in Europe, apart from European Russia, European Russia was, 173 00:19:22,460 --> 00:19:28,010 although in some parts modernised thanks to the efforts of Peter the Great and Catherine and other emperors, 174 00:19:28,010 --> 00:19:34,100 was still a very shambolic, disorganised kind of country, not capable of putting up the same kind of effort. 175 00:19:34,100 --> 00:19:39,860 Certainly not economic and certainly not military compared with with with France. 176 00:19:39,860 --> 00:19:45,260 The Russian victory over France in the War of 1812 was due to General Winter, 177 00:19:45,260 --> 00:19:53,420 much more than two General Kutuzov compared to Germany at that time, although quite substantial, was not unified. 178 00:19:53,420 --> 00:20:01,670 The Reich didn't arise until 1871. Germany was about three hundred and fifty different states, principalities, bishoprics, 179 00:20:01,670 --> 00:20:07,880 electorates and whatnot, quite incapable of unification and not a rival to France in the world. 180 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:12,980 Nine million. Very important to keep that in mind when thinking about history. If ever you do that. 181 00:20:12,980 --> 00:20:24,290 As I said before, if I've been told 40 years or 50 years ago, it was did I did a level about this disparity in population size. 182 00:20:24,290 --> 00:20:30,170 So much of history would have made more sense why it was that in order to fight the French, Britain had to gang up, 183 00:20:30,170 --> 00:20:35,870 apparently so unfairly with the Russians, the Prussians, the Austrians or anybody else to hand in or to fight the French. 184 00:20:35,870 --> 00:20:41,720 Reason was that the tremendous pre-eminence of French numbers, also French economy, 185 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,080 French military power, the concentration of power by the French state, 186 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:53,330 the the capacity by Louis the 14th hundred years earlier to to field armies of hundred thousand men unrivalled in Europe, 187 00:20:53,330 --> 00:20:59,000 but, of course, bankrupting to France and generally thought to be one of the reasons why the French Revolution arose. 188 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:04,190 As a consequence, the pressure of persistently high taxation, that's a different story anyway. 189 00:21:04,190 --> 00:21:12,860 By the end of that century, population had gone up about 11 or 12 million other populations that had grown much more rapidly. 190 00:21:12,860 --> 00:21:14,180 France had lost its pre-eminence. 191 00:21:14,180 --> 00:21:21,690 It was eclipsed by its neighbours, especially by Germany, now unified even more so by by 1940, by the French population. 192 00:21:21,690 --> 00:21:27,860 That hardly increased at all. And Germany's was still increasing very powerfully. 193 00:21:27,860 --> 00:21:33,950 The concern about the French population reinforced by the defeat by the Germans in 1870. 194 00:21:33,950 --> 00:21:41,360 Seventy one by the by the near defeat in the First World War by being overrun and indeed defeated in the Second World War. 195 00:21:41,360 --> 00:21:51,610 Consequently, for all sorts of reasons, many of them really quite rational of a concern for for population. 196 00:21:51,610 --> 00:21:56,230 Therefore, I'll talk about three examples of of of historical development, 197 00:21:56,230 --> 00:22:03,820 of of population policy and family policy before moving on to the modern manifestation of that in the present time. 198 00:22:03,820 --> 00:22:05,950 I think they are quite, quite interesting. 199 00:22:05,950 --> 00:22:12,670 Important to realise is that the policies adopted by France and by other countries before the Second World War 200 00:22:12,670 --> 00:22:18,910 were operating on a different model of family structure and family welfare than is the case at the moment. 201 00:22:18,910 --> 00:22:25,210 Before the Second World War, married women, for the most part, were not in the workforce. 202 00:22:25,210 --> 00:22:33,370 The highly important variable of opportunity cost, which is featured so, so much in our analysis of the underlying reasons for fertility. 203 00:22:33,370 --> 00:22:39,670 Changes in fertility differentials didn't exist when women were not in the workforce, married women were not in the workforce. 204 00:22:39,670 --> 00:22:50,710 You couldn't have opportunity costs. The focus of family policy and population policy was very much more to do with compensating families 205 00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:55,630 conceived in a male breadwinner model for the direct costs of children for the cost of the food, 206 00:22:55,630 --> 00:22:59,890 the clothing education has to be paid for and all the rest of it. 207 00:22:59,890 --> 00:23:04,340 Therefore, with wage supplements and and other kinds of incentives, 208 00:23:04,340 --> 00:23:12,580 a very straightforward cash basis is only half after the war that family policies had to be developed. 209 00:23:12,580 --> 00:23:19,330 First of all, family policies which got away from the then totally discredited paternalism of the of the pre-war period, 210 00:23:19,330 --> 00:23:24,790 but also which took into account the increasing contribution that women made to the family budget, 211 00:23:24,790 --> 00:23:31,090 the rise of the problem of opportunity, cost of having children, given the initial anyway, 212 00:23:31,090 --> 00:23:38,590 incompatibility of being in the workforce at the same time as bringing up a family. 213 00:23:38,590 --> 00:23:49,360 French foreign policy, as I mentioned, dates back for a long period of time and accentuated after 800 or so once once the effect 214 00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:55,690 of the adoption of family planning started to bite in terms of population statistics. 215 00:23:55,690 --> 00:24:03,820 This was manifested in Napoleon's marriage law, which encouraged marriage. 216 00:24:03,820 --> 00:24:11,050 Even even the cost of diminishing the armed forces amounts to double the crude marriage rate and increase the birth rate by 10 percent. 217 00:24:11,050 --> 00:24:17,680 Only transiently, I think. But it was interesting that it's one of the very first examples of a population policy, 218 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:22,210 a family policy which has had some measurable, measured results. 219 00:24:22,210 --> 00:24:25,870 By the time we get to the end of the 20th in the 19th century, 220 00:24:25,870 --> 00:24:32,800 we have all kinds of popular organisations springing up out of national patriotic concern 221 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:40,780 to pressure groups really to to promote the notion of the problem that France was in and to 222 00:24:40,780 --> 00:24:46,000 press the government and also press private industry and other organisations to do something 223 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:51,190 to support the wage of of workers so that they could continue to afford having children. 224 00:24:51,190 --> 00:24:58,750 The earliest national small population, France is founded in 1896, still exists, as I will show you in a moment. 225 00:24:58,750 --> 00:25:06,450 And if you're concerned about the French birthrate, you can send in some money. By the time you get to the First World War, 226 00:25:06,450 --> 00:25:12,910 the family allowances to compensate families for the cost of children were already costing about 20 percent of GDP in France. 227 00:25:12,910 --> 00:25:20,290 It was that important and starts to impinge on national finances that strongly. 228 00:25:20,290 --> 00:25:26,680 One of the characteristics of the pre-war period and not in the post-war period, except in communist countries, 229 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:35,080 is the restriction on on means of family planning, both in France and in Germany and also in the Soviet Union. 230 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:43,150 In 1920, laws were passed to outlaw abortion and outlaw contraception and impose really quite severe 231 00:25:43,150 --> 00:25:49,540 penalties on those selling or promoting or distributing contraceptives and also French abortions, 232 00:25:49,540 --> 00:25:56,500 all practical purposes made strictly illegal with severe penalties for the transgresses. 233 00:25:56,500 --> 00:26:00,370 Those laws hung on until way into the post-war period. 234 00:26:00,370 --> 00:26:08,320 It wasn't until 1967 that the law against contraception was repealed, not not till 1970 for or against abortion was repealed. 235 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:15,060 By that time, of course, most French women were were. Practising family planning, 236 00:26:15,060 --> 00:26:24,120 just like everybody else in Western Europe and and lots of French women were having abortions even though they were by definition, illegal. 237 00:26:24,120 --> 00:26:31,500 And one of the one of the propaganda coup which led to the lower veil, 238 00:26:31,500 --> 00:26:37,620 which led to the repeal of the abortion law, was the fact that a large number of French celebrities, 239 00:26:37,620 --> 00:26:44,340 actresses, female politicians and others got up in public and said, we have all had abortions, we have all broken the law. 240 00:26:44,340 --> 00:26:47,880 This law is absurd. It has to go after that. 241 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,970 It was inevitable that the law did go. 242 00:26:50,970 --> 00:26:59,280 One small hangover from that, of course, was the fact that the French colonies in West Africa and elsewhere all inherited French domestic legislation. 243 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:05,870 And some of this legislation has persisted much longer than in metropolitan France. 244 00:27:05,870 --> 00:27:10,850 In recent years, we still have a minister devoted to population, 245 00:27:10,850 --> 00:27:17,810 even though with the with the with the robust French birthrate over the last 30 or 40 years, 246 00:27:17,810 --> 00:27:26,450 it's been much less necessary to worry about it nonetheless. Generally speaking, when when French presidents come to power, Giscard, this guy was one. 247 00:27:26,450 --> 00:27:32,630 Mitterrand was another. Chirac was another. They all make a point in their early speeches of emphasising the importance 248 00:27:32,630 --> 00:27:37,460 of population for France and how France faces a future for serious problems. 249 00:27:37,460 --> 00:27:43,310 Europe, the bomb, the economy and population has always included. 250 00:27:43,310 --> 00:27:52,040 Whether Sarkozy has done so, I don't know. And the policy continues at quite a high level. 251 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:57,200 In 2003, just one example, a one billion euro scheme to to keep the birthrate up, 252 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:05,060 even though it is already a very robust is the highest in mainland Europe at about two point three and somewhat higher than Britain, 253 00:28:05,060 --> 00:28:09,290 somewhat higher than Scandinavia. And in 2006, interestingly enough, 254 00:28:09,290 --> 00:28:15,020 there was concern arose over with a faint echo of the concerns of the pre-war period 255 00:28:15,020 --> 00:28:20,270 to do with who was having the babies in the pre-war period in Britain and elsewhere. 256 00:28:20,270 --> 00:28:24,780 There was considerable concern because of the pattern of the adoption of family planning. 257 00:28:24,780 --> 00:28:32,450 The people who were educated and well off were having rather few babies, those who are less educated and less well off having more babies. 258 00:28:32,450 --> 00:28:38,540 This was thought to be financially and also possibly intellectually impoverishing to the country. 259 00:28:38,540 --> 00:28:42,980 Those concerns evaporated for the most part after the Second World War. 260 00:28:42,980 --> 00:28:51,950 In France, they have been revived. A tax incentive in 2006 is clearly focussed on higher earning couples. 261 00:28:51,950 --> 00:28:55,990 But it would seem as as a consequence of concern that higher, 262 00:28:55,990 --> 00:29:05,960 higher educated women in France were not having enough children and too much of the new generation came from the lower educated and the poor. 263 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:13,940 This is one of the medals. Just for your information, the medal Donatella family often says, is used in 1920. 264 00:29:13,940 --> 00:29:21,650 You have an awful lot of children to get one. As you see gold medal, you had to have eight, even a bronze four or five. 265 00:29:21,650 --> 00:29:27,540 But you can still get one of these medals. If you go to France and not French citizenship and have lots of babies, 266 00:29:27,540 --> 00:29:32,870 you can apply to the military and put forward these medals and wear them on Bastille 267 00:29:32,870 --> 00:29:39,920 Day and other national holidays as a mark of your democratic demographic merit. 268 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:48,860 Here is the reason. A recent bit of propaganda from the Alliance Nacionale and some of you would have read the wonderful book on 269 00:29:48,860 --> 00:29:57,590 the demographic transition by Jean-Claude Juncker is one of the five luminaries whose signature is on this. 270 00:29:57,590 --> 00:30:01,850 The idea of national still exists, although really with a TFR of two point nought three, 271 00:30:01,850 --> 00:30:07,190 you thought that he could possibly decide his job is done and pack up. 272 00:30:07,190 --> 00:30:17,660 But there it is. One of the curious by-products of French President Nicolas concern was arising out of the activities of various national and various 273 00:30:17,660 --> 00:30:23,870 other pressure groups was the way that France was swamped in the early years of the 20th century before the First World War, 274 00:30:23,870 --> 00:30:30,590 particularly with lots and lots of pronated. This propaganda in the form of these postcards, 275 00:30:30,590 --> 00:30:37,450 these were these were produced in very large numbers and people would send them to each other as a normal means of correspondence. 276 00:30:37,450 --> 00:30:40,000 Here are some examples. 277 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:48,350 Um, yeah, this one dates to 908, as you can see from when you can pick them up for a couple of euros in French provincial markets. 278 00:30:48,350 --> 00:30:58,500 In those great stores, they have full of photographs and postcards. And so the message is extremely simple, but it's to increase baby consciousness. 279 00:30:58,500 --> 00:31:03,780 Here are masses of babies forming over some sort of farmyard here. 280 00:31:03,780 --> 00:31:05,990 A lot of babies in the traditional cabbage patch. 281 00:31:05,990 --> 00:31:14,540 These are cabbages sitting it and they're always saying, I will bring you happiness, I will be faithful, I will be loyal, 282 00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:21,500 etc. This one saying I will be gay, which is perhaps not quite the message which was intended at the time. 283 00:31:21,500 --> 00:31:27,560 And this extended into the 1950s that you can see it as it is extremely first postcard here. 284 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:32,600 And here's a helicopter clearly post Second World War, early vintage 1950s helicopters, 285 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:39,680 the parachute parachuting all these babies onto an unsuspecting and defenceless French population. 286 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:44,270 Also, this is a helicopter of happiness providing with babies. 287 00:31:44,270 --> 00:31:48,900 The message is a simple one, but but constant repetition does help here. 288 00:31:48,900 --> 00:31:53,360 Here are some more babies in a top hat and being pulled out of a hat like rabbits. 289 00:31:53,360 --> 00:32:03,920 The stork you on the top left babies all over the sunflower seeds and more stalks on the right and so on and so forth. 290 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:12,420 This produced a back. Some of you may read the works of elevator bras, a very notable, very distinguished French demographer, 291 00:32:12,420 --> 00:32:18,720 highly amusing, very mischievous, who wrote this sensational book. 292 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:24,480 Marianne Marianne, as you may know, is the symbol of the French Revolution. 293 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:31,560 And her statue stands outside the armoury in every little town in France and also stands outside the 294 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:38,670 mayor's office and says Inhorn Road with some of you may have may have passed by from time to time. 295 00:32:38,670 --> 00:32:44,310 Anyway, here is Marianne, wearing a revolutionary cap and heavily pregnant. 296 00:32:44,310 --> 00:32:49,530 And Marianne part refers to the fact that the farmers have had a brass is concerned. 297 00:32:49,530 --> 00:32:57,720 The INED, the National Institute for the Study of Population is pulling rabbits out of a hat and misleading the French public. 298 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:04,650 French intellectuals, as you know, tend to be much more excited about everything than the intellectuals in England, 299 00:33:04,650 --> 00:33:07,620 insofar as we have intellectuals in England at all, 300 00:33:07,620 --> 00:33:16,890 and in France, where I think the centre of intellectual thought rather more left wing, perhaps that is the case in Britain. 301 00:33:16,890 --> 00:33:21,000 Questions of controversy and questions of population are highly controversial. 302 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:28,920 There is a strand of French demographic, another opinion which feels that that concern about population is misplaced, that it's fascist, 303 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:38,040 or that it emphasises the power of the state that is concerned too much with numbers of people possibly with somewhat racist overtones. 304 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:47,220 And other liberals was accusing the director of INED for which he worked at the time of falsifying with other colleagues the 305 00:33:47,220 --> 00:33:55,950 demographics of France in order to promote protectionist policies which he felt were and still feels were all completely wrong. 306 00:33:55,950 --> 00:34:03,840 I forgot to mention that this is this is this has is given added resonance by the fact that ined the answer to National Day, 307 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,210 to the demographic of France and Ensay, 308 00:34:06,210 --> 00:34:14,010 which is the French National Physical Office, were both founded under Vichy France under the aegis of collaborationist Vichy. 309 00:34:14,010 --> 00:34:26,910 France under German direction, might have inherited, even to this day, a slight pull of of of fascism as far as the left wing France is concerned. 310 00:34:26,910 --> 00:34:37,170 And that's the continuing a continuing fallout, if you like, from the Second World War and from the Vichy France period of 1940 to 44. 311 00:34:37,170 --> 00:34:47,070 Germany, I didn't want to go into the detail, somewhat similar pattern to France with family allowances and and also, interestingly enough, 312 00:34:47,070 --> 00:34:53,640 in the new Social Democrat government after the fall of the German empire, the departure of the Kaiser after the First World War, 313 00:34:53,640 --> 00:35:04,200 liberalisation of abortion liberalisation not tightening up this time for for for human what we now call human rights reasons for female liberation, 314 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:09,490 reasons to liberate women from from the burden of excessive childbearing, rapidly reversed, 315 00:35:09,490 --> 00:35:17,340 of course, by Nazi policy in 1933, by which time the birth rate had fallen to low levels. 316 00:35:17,340 --> 00:35:24,060 The Nazis were very anti Malthusian, as you might imagine, curious enough, did not outlaw contraception. 317 00:35:24,060 --> 00:35:26,700 In that respect. The policy was milder than that of the French. 318 00:35:26,700 --> 00:35:37,110 But they did encourage marriage very much with a policy which just possibly may have been effective in the policy 319 00:35:37,110 --> 00:35:44,250 which they adopted was to give marriage loans to people who got married in Germany after they came to power in 1933. 320 00:35:44,250 --> 00:35:51,690 Those managed loans were conditional on the young woman leaving the workforce and and staying at home. 321 00:35:51,690 --> 00:35:56,190 But those loans were cancelled on the production of successive numbers of children. 322 00:35:56,190 --> 00:36:04,140 So they became gifts rather than loans. This became very expensive, but nonetheless something or other possibly that possibly rearmament, 323 00:36:04,140 --> 00:36:12,360 possibly other policies led to a quite an important jump in the birthrate in a moment. 324 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:19,140 All that came to an end, of course, in 1945 and for the next 30 years in Germany, for quite understandable reasons, 325 00:36:19,140 --> 00:36:22,920 became almost impossible to talk about population and particularly to talk 326 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:26,700 about fertility and especially to talk about the need to increase fertility, 327 00:36:26,700 --> 00:36:34,320 even when the birthrate in Germany remained resolutely below replacement rate from the early 1970s onwards, 328 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:40,950 and when it was quite clear that rather severe levels of population, ageing and population design a decline in prospect. 329 00:36:40,950 --> 00:36:44,520 It took about. 330 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:54,000 Thirty years for this powerful effect of the Nazi experience to wear off and for it to become possible for German politicians and others to raise 331 00:36:54,000 --> 00:37:02,880 the issue of the low birth rates in public and to raise the question of whether there might not be quite sensible to to change policies in Germany, 332 00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:11,310 which appeared to be hostile to to to producing children, hostile to large families and and reverse them. 333 00:37:11,310 --> 00:37:21,000 This is now much more out in the open is now a positive government policy to increase the birthrate by means of family friendly policies put forward, 334 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:26,700 of course, as in almost all post-war policy, as meeting the gap of unmet need, 335 00:37:26,700 --> 00:37:33,900 which is apparent from the gap between the repeatedly reported preference of women to have at least two children, 336 00:37:33,900 --> 00:37:35,520 which is pretty much the case in Germany, 337 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:42,240 as in most other countries, contrasting with the actual performance of a birth rate equivalent to about one point three, 338 00:37:42,240 --> 00:37:47,100 one point for children, which is the case in Germany. These policies are presented, I think, 339 00:37:47,100 --> 00:37:54,600 not unreasonably there and elsewhere as removing the obstacles which prevent women having the number of children which they want. 340 00:37:54,600 --> 00:38:01,380 Easier said than done, but in theory, that's the idea. I visited a number of those here. 341 00:38:01,380 --> 00:38:07,230 And this is this is done. Well, first of all, first of all, here is a German demographic trends that I was talking about. 342 00:38:07,230 --> 00:38:09,630 You can see in 1933 when the Nazis came to power, 343 00:38:09,630 --> 00:38:19,230 the yellow highlighted group birthrate had dropped to fourteen point seven and then increased somewhat after that. 344 00:38:19,230 --> 00:38:27,720 And in a way which some have attributed to to the policy of which I described earlier about marriage loans and their cancellation. 345 00:38:27,720 --> 00:38:35,640 My supervisor, David Glass, feels that this is the only reasonably likely. 346 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:42,210 Evidence of effectiveness of family policy in pre-war Europe and glass being Jewish 347 00:38:42,210 --> 00:38:50,760 is not likely to want to look with favour on the policies of the German Nazi regime. 348 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,240 This is a sort of example which we're getting from Germany at the moment, 349 00:38:54,240 --> 00:39:00,390 these glamorous ladies on the left are the German ministers responsible for family planning. 350 00:39:00,390 --> 00:39:06,250 For some reason, British female ministers do not like this, but in Germany, they just do things better on the right. 351 00:39:06,250 --> 00:39:11,970 That is not a German minister of family, but it's just part of a campaign. 352 00:39:11,970 --> 00:39:20,040 We also followed by a German MEP to bear their bump in public in order to kind of promote as well pregnancy awareness and get 353 00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:31,140 rid of the embarrassment which is associated with with with reproduction and pregnancy and all the rest in the Soviet Union. 354 00:39:31,140 --> 00:39:35,490 The third example of a family policy after after the First World War, 355 00:39:35,490 --> 00:39:40,320 the Soviet Union started off turning society upside down and all sorts of ways 356 00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:44,940 in one way be the first country in the world to introduce abortion on demand, 357 00:39:44,940 --> 00:39:52,980 sweeping away all the old religious prohibitions and legal prohibitions on abortion and permitting abortion on demand. 358 00:39:52,980 --> 00:39:57,660 There was a sort of self-serving motive for that. 359 00:39:57,660 --> 00:40:02,850 One of the consequences of the of the revolution in Russia, especially in urban areas, was enormous. 360 00:40:02,850 --> 00:40:14,010 Outpouring for Enron were an enormous relaxation of sexual morality such that large numbers of young girls becoming pregnant. 361 00:40:14,010 --> 00:40:21,510 This, in Lenin's view, was interfering with production and impeding the construction of socialism. 362 00:40:21,510 --> 00:40:26,340 And one of the reasons for the for this introduction of abortion was not just 363 00:40:26,340 --> 00:40:31,410 liberal policy with communist states tend to do anyway for for liberal reasons, 364 00:40:31,410 --> 00:40:40,440 but also to to calm down this outpouring of births outside marriage to young girls, many of whom were not capable of supporting them. 365 00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:45,270 By the time we get to the 1930s and the birthrates really fallen quite low. 366 00:40:45,270 --> 00:40:48,320 All this is reversed and this is very typical of communist regimes. 367 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:56,730 Is that the in circumstances where family planning remains primitive, as it did in pre pre-war Soviet Union, as it did in post-war communist Europe, 368 00:40:56,730 --> 00:41:02,820 abortion remain a front line method of family planning, such that even in the 1980s, 369 00:41:02,820 --> 00:41:10,770 the average Russian woman would have two lifetime pregnancies producing children and six abortions by lifetime. 370 00:41:10,770 --> 00:41:19,710 The ratio of abortions of birth was well over one to one in most communist countries until until the 1980s, 371 00:41:19,710 --> 00:41:24,060 wartime brought taxes on single and childless medals, of course, 372 00:41:24,060 --> 00:41:32,280 very much on the German pattern that is in the corner and very much up and down policy until the end of communism and 373 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:39,870 all the incentives for family in a population where women taking population was thought to be particularly important, 374 00:41:39,870 --> 00:41:46,500 partly for workforce reasons, all that collapsed and the birthrate went down, it's now going back up again. 375 00:41:46,500 --> 00:41:52,080 Whether it is to do with these recent initiatives promoted by by Putin and Medvedev, 376 00:41:52,080 --> 00:42:00,840 this is one where the state is going to pay couples sixty, sixty pounds a month for a third child and every subsequent baby. 377 00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:08,430 Really quite modest stuff, but also more bizarrely promising land for babies in a country of most mostly living in cities, 378 00:42:08,430 --> 00:42:12,150 which is not really like if you go to Siberia and start playing up bits of tundra. 379 00:42:12,150 --> 00:42:20,520 And nonetheless, that's that's what's done. And here's here's another fate, which seems to me of Nazi authoritarianism. 380 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:31,650 This is Nashi, the nationalist youth movement supported by Mr Putin and his great supporters with these outdoor camps. 381 00:42:31,650 --> 00:42:37,830 It was a suggestion in the newspaper of what was accompany this picture that they were 382 00:42:37,830 --> 00:42:43,350 encouraged as they were to go out and get on with it in the hope of pushing up the birthrate. 383 00:42:43,350 --> 00:42:49,470 How far that's happened, I don't know. But the TFR has certainly increased in Russia now to one point five. 384 00:42:49,470 --> 00:42:56,460 This may well be a consequence of some of these cash bonuses for for marriage and child bearing, which Putin and his colleagues introduced. 385 00:42:56,460 --> 00:43:06,300 These, however, tend to have whenever their trade affects primarily on temper rather than quantum, of which are transient and don't and don't last. 386 00:43:06,300 --> 00:43:15,150 This is just an example of some of the numerous but probably ineffectual measures taken by provincial governments in all sorts of parts of Europe, 387 00:43:15,150 --> 00:43:20,040 all the way from Norway to Italy to try and stop their provincial rural population decline. 388 00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:20,790 You can't read it. 389 00:43:20,790 --> 00:43:35,220 It's just saying that in the town of Skoch start, the the local government has given all its female employers employees a day off to go and romp in. 390 00:43:35,220 --> 00:43:40,890 A bomb is not told if they're given forty male employees permission to romp in the barn as well. 391 00:43:40,890 --> 00:43:45,450 If if they haven't, then it's going to be a progressive occasion, but not a very productive one. 392 00:43:45,450 --> 00:43:51,900 And that one feels. To cut the cattle, can all this work? 393 00:43:51,900 --> 00:43:55,650 Does it work? Can policy affect family formation? 394 00:43:55,650 --> 00:44:01,650 That's the fundamental question that we have to ask about. There are lots of problems in sorting this out. 395 00:44:01,650 --> 00:44:09,060 One of the problems is that when modern states spend up to 50 percent of GDP and influenced by their policies, 396 00:44:09,060 --> 00:44:15,510 the provision and cost of health, of education, of housing and almost anything else you can imagine, 397 00:44:15,510 --> 00:44:23,040 many of these things plausibly affect the rational decisions upon both union formation and the production 398 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:27,540 of children in ways which are very difficult to measure because so many influences are happening at once, 399 00:44:27,540 --> 00:44:29,460 possibly of a contradictory matter. 400 00:44:29,460 --> 00:44:36,690 Very important, therefore, to remember that unintended effects of policy, as in so many other areas of the national life, 401 00:44:36,690 --> 00:44:45,960 may be just as important as intended ones in affecting union formation and and birth rates, generally speaking, 402 00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:50,970 in family policies which are which were initially introduced almost entirely for welfare reasons, 403 00:44:50,970 --> 00:44:59,190 without any hint of unpleasant paternalism, which now increasingly incorporated some hope that it might increase the birthrate. 404 00:44:59,190 --> 00:45:06,780 As well as protecting people and families and children in poverty, the demand for children is assumed be axiomatic for the most part. 405 00:45:06,780 --> 00:45:14,670 That is to say that it is taken seriously when people women keep on saying time and time again that they want to have at least two children. 406 00:45:14,670 --> 00:45:22,590 Therefore, from that is for an unmet need, as it were, for childbearing caused by an unsatisfied unmet need, 407 00:45:22,590 --> 00:45:27,990 caused by all sorts of impediments which policy might possibly ameliorate or remove altogether. 408 00:45:27,990 --> 00:45:38,010 And this this is a list of of some of the areas, the pressure points of policy, as it were, which are addressed by these these policies. 409 00:45:38,010 --> 00:45:45,070 Money cost directly and, of course, increasing of the opportunity cost, trying to bridge the gap which has arisen, 410 00:45:45,070 --> 00:45:48,690 the incompatibility which has arisen when women have moved into the workforce 411 00:45:48,690 --> 00:45:52,140 between having babies on the one hand and being the workforce on the other. 412 00:45:52,140 --> 00:46:00,810 An area where Scandinavia seems to have been particularly active and and successful time costs in terms of parental leave, 413 00:46:00,810 --> 00:46:07,600 job protection for women who take time off to have children that wish to go back into the workforce or to be rather important, 414 00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:17,220 all sorts of other burdens on on women. Other policies are well worth a mention are those which affect tempo with most of the 415 00:46:17,220 --> 00:46:23,970 policies are concerned with insofar as a demographically focussed are concerned with. 416 00:46:23,970 --> 00:46:30,300 Increasing family size in the long run is also a case, of course, increasing family size in the short run, 417 00:46:30,300 --> 00:46:36,900 partly to counteract population ageing and to give some some breathing space for other policies to develop. 418 00:46:36,900 --> 00:46:43,890 Both candidates and Vegard Skarbek are very keen on the notion of of starting 419 00:46:43,890 --> 00:46:48,720 helping families to start off earlier by means of a number of policies affecting, 420 00:46:48,720 --> 00:46:53,670 for example, tertiary education, reflecting on the fact that in some continental countries, many of them, 421 00:46:53,670 --> 00:47:01,670 tertiary education drags on for almost a decade into the late 20s and 30s as as. 422 00:47:01,670 --> 00:47:08,820 Candidates for examination can take time off from university, haven't got to attend regular tutorials or anything of that kind, 423 00:47:08,820 --> 00:47:17,010 but interspersed education with periods of of low level employment, partly to pay their way and pay their costs. 424 00:47:17,010 --> 00:47:20,960 This drags out that period of time before they're in a position to enter the 425 00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:26,480 labour market on a regular basis and start a union formation and a family. 426 00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:31,160 So tertiary education policy reform, shortening and making more condensed. 427 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:38,810 This period of education is thought to be one possible and just for kick starting an increase in the birthrate. 428 00:47:38,810 --> 00:47:46,620 This is the evidence for the for the the. Axiomatic assumption that women keep on wanting to have children. 429 00:47:46,620 --> 00:47:49,890 This is Eurobarometer in 2001. 430 00:47:49,890 --> 00:47:59,040 This is the average stated ideal family size in all cases over two except for two, which have broken ranks, Austria and Germany. 431 00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:05,820 This caused considerable suffering, the dovecote when it first came out, because it was it was an indication that this axiomatic assumption, 432 00:48:05,820 --> 00:48:09,090 which has been true for the previous 30 years, enquiry enquiries, 433 00:48:09,090 --> 00:48:14,250 when all the time of these enquiries made the women keep kept on saying they want to have these two children. 434 00:48:14,250 --> 00:48:15,690 This was ceasing to be true. 435 00:48:15,690 --> 00:48:23,250 If that seems to be true, then the underpinning of all the policies directed towards meeting unmet need would start to crumble. 436 00:48:23,250 --> 00:48:33,510 However, by 2006, Germany had popped back up to an ideal family size were two, leading only Austria out in the cold, as it were, with less than two. 437 00:48:33,510 --> 00:48:40,290 That, of course, may simply, in your mind, probably rightly point to the fragility of this kind of enquiry of ideal family size. 438 00:48:40,290 --> 00:48:47,610 Nonetheless, is given consistent results. Even if the interpretation of the data may not be all that obvious. 439 00:48:47,610 --> 00:48:52,560 There's a considerable relationship between total fertility and births outside marriage. 440 00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:58,350 This is not normally mentioned as a kind of policy aspect. 441 00:48:58,350 --> 00:49:03,480 Nonetheless, it is an empirical fact that it is only those countries where quite a developed world. 442 00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:10,950 I mean, we are quite a high proportion of births outside marriage, which also have a reasonably protective levels of total fertility. 443 00:49:10,950 --> 00:49:20,510 In other words, in order, as you'll see here, in order to have a TFR of over one point seven, which Peter McDonald and others feel, 444 00:49:20,510 --> 00:49:25,740 this is about the lowest you can have and protect yourself from the most severe levels of future population ageing. 445 00:49:25,740 --> 00:49:32,460 You've got to have empirically at least 30 percent this year of births outside marriage. 446 00:49:32,460 --> 00:49:39,090 That is not in itself enough, because over here you've got lots of countries where 30 percent or more births outside marriage, 447 00:49:39,090 --> 00:49:47,130 but were nonetheless a TFR is less than one point seven, mostly in Eastern Europe, but also including including Germany. 448 00:49:47,130 --> 00:49:51,070 Nonetheless, it is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one. 449 00:49:51,070 --> 00:49:59,610 And there are no countries where the proportion of births within marriage is high and TFR is high within the developed world, 450 00:49:59,610 --> 00:50:06,660 except for Montenegro, which I removed because it is inconvenient and it is so small, it doesn't really matter and very backward. 451 00:50:06,660 --> 00:50:13,050 And the TFR is going down by the fast. 452 00:50:13,050 --> 00:50:22,680 The pattern of policy is very much follows the kind of pattern of social welfare according to the classification of Espin Anderson, 453 00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:32,220 which may be familiar to you. The details need not concern is very much the explicit active of prenatal isn't worth a 454 00:50:32,220 --> 00:50:37,260 mention because this is usually something which is only possible in totalitarian regimes. 455 00:50:37,260 --> 00:50:41,010 That is to say, the kind of restrictions on abortion and contraception, 456 00:50:41,010 --> 00:50:51,450 which one which one saw in pre-war Europe and and the control of which one are extending right until the end of the Soviet period in 1989. 457 00:50:51,450 --> 00:50:58,590 Propaganda and prises and and and punishments on bachelors and spinsters. 458 00:50:58,590 --> 00:51:06,510 These belong to a non-democratic realm of policy and are not nowadays an issue. 459 00:51:06,510 --> 00:51:14,160 The issue is one of the big contrasts resides between those areas where it is still believed using, 460 00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,510 as it were, a male breadwinner model of the family, 461 00:51:17,510 --> 00:51:24,780 that cash bonuses are the way forward to compensate for the costs of of children and those which take the view, as in Scandinavia, 462 00:51:24,780 --> 00:51:26,880 in France and elsewhere, 463 00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:36,600 that what is really important is the relation between women and the workforce and time budgets and not just cash and not even primarily cash, 464 00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:45,300 but the question of trying to combine all desirable aspects of life in a child centred and child friendly environment. 465 00:51:45,300 --> 00:51:54,120 And very likely it is the issues, the child friendly political culture at the end of the day, which makes the difference. 466 00:51:54,120 --> 00:52:00,810 But introducing a child friendly political culture in a different kind of culture means really turning the 467 00:52:00,810 --> 00:52:06,960 national policy and the national culture upside down in a way and is extraordinarily difficult to do. 468 00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:15,000 The methodology for calculating the effectiveness of family planning policies has only really been developed over the last 15 or 20 years, 469 00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:23,460 is much less well developed than that relating to the effectiveness of family planning policy in Third World countries to bring the birthrate down. 470 00:52:23,460 --> 00:52:29,040 Here are some some results. On the whole, they're not terribly encouraging. 471 00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:36,330 Agouti and Hatzius made a major international comparison of family policies across the developed world, 472 00:52:36,330 --> 00:52:44,760 with the European developed world looking at all the policies towards encouraging women into the workforce cash bonuses, tax reliefs, 473 00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:48,000 maternity leave, paternity leave and all of us all maternal, 474 00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:58,000 they get their hands on and recommend a 25 percent increase in costs of those policies only generated as an extra one tenth of a child, 475 00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,600 in fact, slightly less than one tenth of a child. 476 00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:07,810 These international comparisons tend to produce very low discouraging results and point of view of policy analysts. 477 00:53:07,810 --> 00:53:15,480 This may be, of course, because in order to make international comparisons, you've got to get comparable data from a large number of countries, 478 00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:20,190 which may not be may not be available in comparable form and therefore all sorts 479 00:53:20,190 --> 00:53:24,780 of things which may well affect the motivations for using information like, 480 00:53:24,780 --> 00:53:28,350 for example, housing policy, a characteristic left out of these. 481 00:53:28,350 --> 00:53:32,160 They focus rather more on measurable cash benefits, 482 00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:42,210 measurable measures to do with with the labour market and return to work and and compensation for Type four income lost. 483 00:53:42,210 --> 00:53:50,230 And that's only a small part of all the policies which may well affect the rationality of childbearing, single study, single countries. 484 00:53:50,230 --> 00:53:54,660 That is maybe better, according to a number of people who know and understand. 485 00:53:54,660 --> 00:53:56,130 Others feel this quite strongly, 486 00:53:56,130 --> 00:54:04,830 those who say looking at the time trend of the birth rate over time in in relation to the inception and ending of particular policies, 487 00:54:04,830 --> 00:54:11,490 the removal of particular legal institutional obstacles to to to childbearing and family formation and all rest, 488 00:54:11,490 --> 00:54:18,670 that tends to produce rather more favourable results for family policy, but still not overwhelmingly positive ones. 489 00:54:18,670 --> 00:54:26,130 As as MacDonald insists, what really seems to matter is the consistent long term across the board, 490 00:54:26,130 --> 00:54:33,720 family effectiveness or otherwise of policies contrasting Scandinavia and France on the one hand 491 00:54:33,720 --> 00:54:41,340 with the two thousand one point nine or two with those with with the much more family oriented, 492 00:54:41,340 --> 00:54:48,750 cash benefit based policies of Southern Europe and East Asia, where TFSA at one point three, 493 00:54:48,750 --> 00:54:52,800 one point two, if somehow you could import Scandinavian attitudes, 494 00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:57,210 Scandinavian law, Scandinavian history, as it were, into those areas, 495 00:54:57,210 --> 00:55:02,220 then then then you have a very different birthrate probably, but you have a different country. 496 00:55:02,220 --> 00:55:06,900 And that kind of transformation is really beyond the power of policy. It seems. 497 00:55:06,900 --> 00:55:11,940 What Gaultier thinks is that there's a huge difference, therefore, between what you could do and what you. 498 00:55:11,940 --> 00:55:12,990 What you are doing, 499 00:55:12,990 --> 00:55:19,890 the actual international measured TFR gap between the highest and lowest countries is about nought point eight of a child, about two. 500 00:55:19,890 --> 00:55:25,920 And one point to the actual the actual gap in preferences compared with the 501 00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:31,200 declared preferences and the actual performance is about half a child policy. 502 00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:38,460 A window of opportunity seems to be about just nought point to nought point two, according to go to is very wide ranging. 503 00:55:38,460 --> 00:55:49,320 Analysis seems to be about the maximum benefit. You seem to be able to get out of specific policies which actually have been introduced. 504 00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:55,680 At the end of the day, therefore, most policies do fail or have certainly not been spectacularly successful, 505 00:55:55,680 --> 00:56:02,490 particularly those which focussed solely on throwing money at women in the hope the babies will will eventually emerge. 506 00:56:02,490 --> 00:56:09,630 And Young, whom I think sums up things quite well in this statement here, 507 00:56:09,630 --> 00:56:17,320 and possibly Heather Jocie even better by simply saying that if you look after the interests of women, then population will look after itself. 508 00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:25,320 And this is very important to for those countries which adopt a rather patriarchal attitude towards them, towards marriage, 509 00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:31,770 reproduction of women and all the rest need to keep very firmly in mind in southern Europe and particularly in the Far East. 510 00:56:31,770 --> 00:56:41,670 And the I shall end the business of the reproduction of the country and its future population size very much lies with your generation. 511 00:56:41,670 --> 00:56:50,400 So very interesting to see what you decide to do about it. And I shall sit back and not give any more lectures on this and see what happens. 512 00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:54,540 Thank you all very much.