1 00:00:03,090 --> 00:00:09,960 Good afternoon and welcome, everybody. I'm delighted to present to you our speaker today, Dr. Guy Burton, 2 00:00:10,290 --> 00:00:19,470 who is currently a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics Middle East Centre and adjunct professor at Vesalius College in Brussels. 3 00:00:20,970 --> 00:00:27,420 Dr. Burton's research interests involve the politics and international relations of the Middle East, 4 00:00:27,420 --> 00:00:35,390 and specifically that the role of emerging outside powers in in the conflict. 5 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:40,410 He is currently studying the role of China in its response towards conflict in the region. 6 00:00:40,950 --> 00:00:49,320 The title of his talk today is also the title of his recently published book, Rising Powers and the Arab-Israeli Conflict Since 1947. 7 00:00:49,770 --> 00:00:56,040 Professor Burton, thank you so much. Thank you. And thank you for so many people showing up because normally I don't get this many number of people. 8 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:03,030 So really appreciates it. And it makes it makes it coming out coming over talks so much will worth much worthwhile. 9 00:01:03,540 --> 00:01:08,159 So I've got I've been told, you know, that normally these things run for about 35 minutes or so. 10 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:16,709 So I'm just going to give you sort of the bare bones of the of of of the of the book itself, which will give which is really a historical accounts, 11 00:01:16,710 --> 00:01:23,340 but trying to sort of fit, situate or fix it in sort of the theoretical frameworks or associated with international relations and conflict management. 12 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:31,290 And so I won't probably won't get into the detail of individual country cases here, but I'm certainly willing to talk about that. 13 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:36,990 You know, after the of after the after my sort of allotted time is up because it is an interesting and, 14 00:01:37,620 --> 00:01:41,820 you know, interesting account of each of these countries that that I've been looking at. 15 00:01:42,420 --> 00:01:47,729 So we talk about the rising powers and really the when I talk about rising powers, 16 00:01:47,730 --> 00:01:51,299 I'm talking about five in particular, the so-called BRICS countries. 17 00:01:51,300 --> 00:01:57,990 So Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. And just sort of give you a little bit of an outline of what I'm going to be talking about. 18 00:01:58,350 --> 00:02:02,969 I want to start first by saying a little bit about what brought me to two to study this particular subject. 19 00:02:02,970 --> 00:02:07,980 Because, you know, when you go along to, you know, conferences and assemblies or Middle Eastern studies, 20 00:02:08,220 --> 00:02:14,730 it's a little bit out there when you start saying you want to talk about China or India, but I hope hopefully it will. 21 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,830 You know, it'll start become more sort of mainstream. 22 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:23,610 And I'm going to give you a little bit of sort of the my thinking might of what is a rising power as well as what do we mean by conflict management. 23 00:02:23,820 --> 00:02:26,530 Because then I want to by doing that, then I want to sort of talk, you know, 24 00:02:26,550 --> 00:02:33,330 basically summarise effectively about 70 years worth of of history of these different countries in relation to the Arab-Israeli conflict. 25 00:02:33,900 --> 00:02:38,700 And then maybe sort of towards the end points point towards where we might go from here, 26 00:02:38,700 --> 00:02:43,860 sort of where are the sort of the gaps that could be set, could potentially be developed, studied further. 27 00:02:44,070 --> 00:02:49,470 I see a number of students here. So, you know, this is a potential potential opportunity for you to think about your dissertations. 28 00:02:49,590 --> 00:02:56,549 So so just to sort of say a little bit about, you know, what brought me to this a number of years back, 29 00:02:56,550 --> 00:03:01,860 I was based in Birzeit University where I took where I worked at the Centre for Development Studies, 30 00:03:02,460 --> 00:03:06,960 and we were very much interested in the role of the aid industry. 31 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,590 We were interested in what did development mean for Palestine and for Palestinians. 32 00:03:11,100 --> 00:03:16,159 And so I was very much looking at things from that particular perspective during the course of that. 33 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:21,149 So I had the opportunity to look sideways and see other areas that were of interest. 34 00:03:21,150 --> 00:03:28,350 And it was around the time that I first arrived, you know, to work in Palestine in, in February 2010, 35 00:03:28,350 --> 00:03:33,630 that President Lula, then President Lula of Brazil had just made his second visit to the region. 36 00:03:33,810 --> 00:03:35,910 He had been feted in the streets of Ramallah. 37 00:03:36,090 --> 00:03:46,440 They had they had created that that's created a new roads and put a new road up called Brazil Road, which was right next to the MacArthur. 38 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,829 So, you know, there was a lot of sort of an interest in attention at the time. 39 00:03:49,830 --> 00:03:56,550 So what does this all mean? And, you know, actually, I should confess that I started off as a Latin American and comparative to myself. 40 00:03:57,150 --> 00:04:04,889 So when I came to Palestine, I was very intrigued to find that, you know, Lula had been sort of running around all over the place. 41 00:04:04,890 --> 00:04:10,379 So that sort of prompted me to start looking. I started looking at the role of Brazil. 42 00:04:10,380 --> 00:04:17,940 And at the time, you know, Venezuela under Chavez was very active, especially in the context of the 2008 nine Gaza Gaza war. 43 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,899 So I started looking at these these these countries on the side, 44 00:04:21,900 --> 00:04:26,940 and that sort of led me to looking at the BRICS as a group, both individually as well as collectively. 45 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:32,660 It was also a time around then that people were thinking, Oh, the BRICS are a new doing. 46 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,150 They offer a new way of thinking about global politics. 47 00:04:36,390 --> 00:04:40,440 So what does this mean for contact? You know, conflicts like the Arab-Israeli conflict, 48 00:04:41,700 --> 00:04:45,239 maybe that's changed a little bit since especially given sort of the economic crises 49 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:50,250 that have happened in Brazil and the lower growth rates in south South Africa. 50 00:04:50,340 --> 00:04:53,249 But I think it's important to bear in mind that there was this interest, 51 00:04:53,250 --> 00:04:57,540 but very much a lot of the international relations of the Arab-Israeli conflict, 52 00:04:57,540 --> 00:05:00,960 especially in the last 20 odd years, has been very much framed around the role of the. 53 00:05:01,190 --> 00:05:05,990 It states the Europeans. So I was interested in seeing who else is involved in all of this. 54 00:05:06,530 --> 00:05:14,809 I also think it's important to to to give you this sort of background, because it also shows you the perspective from which I was working. 55 00:05:14,810 --> 00:05:18,470 I was primarily based, living and working amongst Palestinians. 56 00:05:18,710 --> 00:05:25,130 So I'm perhaps a little bit stronger and more familiar on sort of the on the on the agenda and the interests on that side. 57 00:05:26,090 --> 00:05:27,889 It's also important to know those sort of things, 58 00:05:27,890 --> 00:05:33,500 because I know that this is a particularly this can sometimes be quite a polemical conflict and people have the particular positions and views. 59 00:05:34,010 --> 00:05:36,629 So it's useful to set those out. 60 00:05:36,630 --> 00:05:43,160 So, I mean, we talk about objective scholarship, but I think people bring their own interests to this particular conflict. 61 00:05:43,550 --> 00:05:48,290 And hopefully what I'm going to talk is more about the role of these international powers rather than the conflict itself. 62 00:05:48,290 --> 00:05:51,470 But we can discuss that as well afterwards, if you wish. 63 00:05:51,870 --> 00:05:54,590 Also, it's important to say something about the nature of the conflict, 64 00:05:55,430 --> 00:06:00,170 because a lot of the frame framing around the conflict, especially the use of the Oslo peace process, 65 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:09,020 is that of sort of two relatively equal equidistant parties, you know, Israel and Israel on one side and the PLO on the other. 66 00:06:09,230 --> 00:06:13,900 And yet, you know, there is a critique to that which says that this is not a balanced conflict. 67 00:06:13,910 --> 00:06:20,360 This is not two, two powers. The two groups are coming to the two coming to the table in an equal position. 68 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:27,739 We're talking about a situation in which Israel has significantly greater material resources. 69 00:06:27,740 --> 00:06:34,190 And we're talking about if you if you're familiar with Jeff Helper's work on the matrix of control in which he talks about sort of the 70 00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:41,240 the whole infrastructure that has been built up in the context of the West Bank and Gaza that this is an imbalanced relationship. 71 00:06:41,420 --> 00:06:44,870 So it's important to bear that in mind when lists, when, when, 72 00:06:44,870 --> 00:06:50,510 when considering sort of the rhetoric that goes on with regards to the emerging powers and their position. 73 00:06:51,260 --> 00:06:58,940 So setting that out, I want to talk a little bit about what are rising powers and and the BRICS and broadly, I mean, 74 00:06:58,940 --> 00:07:01,819 if you think about if you look at the international relations, I mean, 75 00:07:01,820 --> 00:07:06,320 often there's most focus is interest is on that of great powers and superpowers. 76 00:07:06,740 --> 00:07:14,840 So what about these other powers that sort of are in between these so-called middle powers or regional powers or in the context what I'm using here, 77 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:20,090 rising powers? Broadly, there seem to be about, you know, three different ways we can define them. 78 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:25,430 One is to look at them in terms of their their, you know, sort of in an objective way, in terms of their resources, 79 00:07:26,300 --> 00:07:32,030 in terms of sort of the size of their economy, the size of the population, the military resources that they have. 80 00:07:32,780 --> 00:07:38,809 Another way is to look at them in a subjective way. And I think that's quite what's quite important in thinking about the role of rising powers. 81 00:07:38,810 --> 00:07:42,310 And in the case of this conflict, how are they perceived by others? 82 00:07:42,590 --> 00:07:50,810 Because a lot of this is about, you know, I want to be seen to be doing something or not doing something, but it's important how others perceive me. 83 00:07:50,820 --> 00:07:53,570 It's I can do something myself, but I want to know how others see me. 84 00:07:53,810 --> 00:07:59,420 And that brings me to the third way that you can think about rising powers that of their behaviour or statecraft. 85 00:07:59,630 --> 00:08:04,350 So what kind of things do they actually do? And broadly there are sort of two types of behaviour. 86 00:08:04,370 --> 00:08:05,839 I mean, I'm going to be quite crude here, 87 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:12,290 but between these two ends of the spectrum there is what we might consider those who are sort of good international citizens 88 00:08:12,290 --> 00:08:18,020 wanting to uphold the international institutions and the structure of the international system in which they find them. 89 00:08:18,140 --> 00:08:22,460 And then there are those what you might call spoilers or challenges to that to that system. 90 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,770 I mean, we can think about, you know, you know, 91 00:08:24,770 --> 00:08:31,069 some some obvious examples I alluded to in it's a Chavez in Venezuela back in when he was alive, you know, 92 00:08:31,070 --> 00:08:36,170 he was very much seen as sort of, you know, challenging the established order of things and in Latin America, 93 00:08:36,170 --> 00:08:37,940 whereas, you know, Lula was never really doing that. 94 00:08:37,940 --> 00:08:42,680 So you kind of seen more as a sort of international good citizen, or at least that was the way that they they frenzel. 95 00:08:42,890 --> 00:08:51,950 Now, of course, it's not as crude as that. You know, actors can sort of swing back and forth between these two, two, two, two poles. 96 00:08:52,820 --> 00:08:56,540 But it's useful to have that as a sort of a framework framework to think about. 97 00:08:56,810 --> 00:09:03,620 Now, secondly, the other thing we can think about in terms of of of rising powers is their position in relation to the international system, 98 00:09:03,620 --> 00:09:06,050 not just their behaviour, but their stance. 99 00:09:06,170 --> 00:09:13,430 And so if we if you go back and look at the literature on middle powers from sort of soon after the Second World War, you see them, 100 00:09:13,610 --> 00:09:21,260 you see a lot of discussion about countries like Australia and Canada who recognised and associate themselves with the Western order, 101 00:09:22,250 --> 00:09:25,729 supported the international systems that been set up, the Bretton Woods system, 102 00:09:25,730 --> 00:09:30,320 the UN system and and actually interestingly enough, now there's a bit of a debate going on, 103 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,130 you know, regard it for in the case of Canada, which has always portrayed itself as, 104 00:09:34,340 --> 00:09:34,549 you know, 105 00:09:34,550 --> 00:09:41,660 upholding these upholding the international system as being sort of challenged by what's been by some of its relations with with regard to China. 106 00:09:42,890 --> 00:09:45,290 So there is those established bodies, 107 00:09:45,290 --> 00:09:54,109 but then there is and this is where I think the interest in the BRICS came about those the emerging sort of non-traditional actors who people said, 108 00:09:54,110 --> 00:09:58,370 do they really see themselves as part of the international system or are they challenging it? 109 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:04,020 The BRICS themselves were just the sort of. Provide some context to those who don't know. 110 00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:09,140 It was never it was never a name that they took on themselves. 111 00:10:09,150 --> 00:10:11,790 It was actually ident. It was gold. 112 00:10:12,060 --> 00:10:18,930 Jim Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs, who first wrote about them in the in an in the context of economic developments and growth. 113 00:10:18,930 --> 00:10:26,100 In about 2001, he was talking he wanted to write about where are these emerging markets, not powers, but emerging markets coming from. 114 00:10:26,220 --> 00:10:31,350 And he pointed to four neatly, basically Brazil, Russia, India and China as the BRIC. 115 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:40,590 It's interesting that from about 2008, around the time of the financial crisis, you start to see these these actors, 116 00:10:40,590 --> 00:10:46,470 the leaderships of these countries starting to take ownership of that that phrase, that term. 117 00:10:46,620 --> 00:10:53,730 And they started to organise their own meetings initially on the side of the UN General Assembly meetings in September. 118 00:10:53,850 --> 00:11:02,340 And then subsequently from about 2009, they started to organise regular annual meetings where they would sit down and and 119 00:11:02,700 --> 00:11:07,260 try to put forward sort of their vision of what the world order should look like. 120 00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:10,170 Initially, that was primarily about the the global economy. 121 00:11:10,380 --> 00:11:15,690 It was about and I think the most substantive output outcomes that have come from from the BRICS. 122 00:11:16,350 --> 00:11:24,060 South Africa joined in 2011 with. But the most substantive kind of outputs we've seen from that is the establishment of a contingency reserve 123 00:11:24,180 --> 00:11:30,420 fund to factor in sort of in financial difficulties and also the establishment of a new development bank. 124 00:11:30,450 --> 00:11:37,530 Both of those coming out in 2014. But in terms of anything more more substantive in terms of sharing or pooling sovereignty, we haven't seen that. 125 00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:44,700 And that sort of also echoes the fact that these countries, although they can work collaboratively on some things, 126 00:11:44,900 --> 00:11:48,090 they have internal tensions and conflicts between them, say, for example, 127 00:11:48,090 --> 00:11:52,990 China and India on one hand, China and Russia and, you know, the predecessors on the other. 128 00:11:53,010 --> 00:11:56,430 So it's a minimal amount of work that they can do. 129 00:11:56,700 --> 00:12:06,629 So then this raises a question. So why am I looking at these these particular countries, you know, from 1947, why particularly look at, you know, 130 00:12:06,630 --> 00:12:14,340 the Arab-Israeli conflict since and in the case of, you know, the BRICS, which we can do from a collective. 131 00:12:14,340 --> 00:12:21,750 But why why bring it back to 1947? And this is actually brings something about the debate that goes on as to when did the conflict start. 132 00:12:21,930 --> 00:12:28,319 I mean, often there's there's been sort of a I guess for some on the Israeli left, there's a sort of a talk about, well, 133 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:35,580 if we you know, we talk about 1967 as the point at which things are are the are the starting point for this conflict. 134 00:12:35,590 --> 00:12:42,420 But actually, from a Palestinian perspective, it starts from 1947. And so I wanted to try and situate where these countries sit, 135 00:12:42,450 --> 00:12:46,080 have sit and position themselves in relation to the conflict since that period 136 00:12:46,470 --> 00:12:49,790 also in 1947 is the period at which the conflict became internationalised. 137 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:55,590 It was put forward to the United Nations, you know, for debate and discussion as under under the partition plan. 138 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:03,480 So I think from those from that perspective, it makes sense to talk about 1947 as as as the moment at which the conflict became internationalised. 139 00:13:03,660 --> 00:13:07,290 And what is the role of these different countries in relation to that? 140 00:13:07,680 --> 00:13:14,490 Yes, I also look in the book, you know, what the BRICS themselves have been saying since they started to organise themselves collectively. 141 00:13:14,790 --> 00:13:19,140 But it's also quite useful to look at what they were saying individually as well. 142 00:13:19,260 --> 00:13:26,010 And it also gives us sort of some insights into different sorts of different voices from different parts of the world. 143 00:13:26,010 --> 00:13:30,450 Because if we think about, you know, the Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, 144 00:13:30,450 --> 00:13:34,769 sort of as one of the leading powers on in the communist world as opposed to China, 145 00:13:34,770 --> 00:13:40,860 which also sometimes identified with the global south, which is also where you would find, you know, Brazil and India. 146 00:13:41,010 --> 00:13:44,340 You get these different voices that emerge. 147 00:13:45,330 --> 00:13:51,660 Right. So talking having thoughts about the rising powers, let's say a little bit about the nature of conflicts and conflict management. 148 00:13:52,410 --> 00:14:00,620 I've summarised here in the table above some this distinction between, on the one hand, conservative conservative peace and liberal peace. 149 00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:07,140 This is something that has been drawn up by those who are who who work in the peace studies field. 150 00:14:07,860 --> 00:14:13,710 Very, very simply, very simply the distinction between conservative peace and liberal peace. 151 00:14:14,190 --> 00:14:17,580 Conservative peace is that where we sort of see an absence of violence. 152 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:22,080 So, no, no, no, no fighting, no violence. 153 00:14:22,530 --> 00:14:27,599 Then we've got peace. But those more critical views from the peace studies community have said, well, 154 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,710 just because there's no no violence doesn't mean that there is no conflict. 155 00:14:31,950 --> 00:14:40,229 You know, the conflict has deep roots, and that might actually require doing more than just removing physical violence. 156 00:14:40,230 --> 00:14:42,150 It might means actually building peace. 157 00:14:42,150 --> 00:14:48,860 It means, you know, getting involved in various activities that might involve development assistance or, you know, 158 00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:58,380 incorporation of particular communities, you know, reducing discrimination and marginalisation as a way to resolve the potential for conflict. 159 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:06,830 So putting it at either end. We can see there's this distinction between, you know, different forms of peace, this conservative versus liberal. 160 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:16,630 And with it, I suggest that there is this the type of conflict management processes and practices can be those between broadly active versus passive. 161 00:15:16,930 --> 00:15:25,660 So if we're just looking to try and prevent violence from breaking out, that's somewhat passive approach to to it's a conflict management. 162 00:15:25,780 --> 00:15:29,470 Whereas if we want to engage in a, in resolving the, you know, 163 00:15:29,500 --> 00:15:33,880 sort of the underlying tensions and causes of that conflict, that's a much more active approach. 164 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:40,390 But also along with that comes the idea that in some cases, you know, active conflict management may be more coercive. 165 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:46,750 It means if we think if we think about piecemeal peacekeeping, for example, peacekeeping is simply keeping two sides apart. 166 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:53,829 But if we're talking about peacebuilding, it might mean actually going into the community and actually addressing some of the different, 167 00:15:53,830 --> 00:15:57,770 you know, the tensions that exist there that might actually require, you know, taking sides. 168 00:15:58,570 --> 00:16:01,540 It therefore, it's it can be a potentially more coercive approach. 169 00:16:01,750 --> 00:16:05,110 And this is one of the things that I sort of try to break down in terms of the different ways that 170 00:16:05,110 --> 00:16:10,600 we can you can sort of analyse conflict management in the context of international relations. 171 00:16:11,110 --> 00:16:17,050 But from the I've broken it down from sort of the political and diplomatic through to the strategic, legal and social, economic. 172 00:16:18,340 --> 00:16:27,280 Now, the main argument I'm going to take is that and this is sort of where it comes, I come back to sort of international relations. 173 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:33,610 Is that rising powers? We would tend to think that rising powers are going to be more likely to act 174 00:16:33,610 --> 00:16:37,720 and perhaps take a more active role where there is space for them to do so. 175 00:16:38,170 --> 00:16:45,340 So if we think about an international system where there is, you know, more competition or more space, 176 00:16:45,340 --> 00:16:49,030 there's going to be more opportunity for these type of actions to take place, 177 00:16:49,030 --> 00:16:56,080 these type of actors to to operate on the other hands where the international system is more closed, 178 00:16:56,110 --> 00:17:02,259 there's more there's fewer opportunities for rising powers to express themselves, 179 00:17:02,260 --> 00:17:06,820 to carrot, you know, to pursue these type of these type of conflict management activities. 180 00:17:07,360 --> 00:17:12,310 And so this is the sort of the main argument that was put at the front of the book. 181 00:17:12,340 --> 00:17:17,379 Now, the rest of the book then goes through studying this, but from a historical perspective. 182 00:17:17,380 --> 00:17:25,720 So it's broken down into a number of chapters. I look at the conflict and these different countries response to this from 1947 to 67. 183 00:17:25,900 --> 00:17:29,979 Then from 1967 to 93. Then from 93 to 2000. 184 00:17:29,980 --> 00:17:37,720 And then after the second second intifada. And also, it's also useful to bear in mind, sort of very broadly, the nature of the conflict itself. 185 00:17:37,930 --> 00:17:45,680 And from the first period for the 47 to 67, it's it can probably be characterised more as a conflict between states. 186 00:17:45,700 --> 00:17:52,660 Right. The Palestinian dimension of the conflict is is somewhat reduced. 187 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:58,900 It's overshadowed by the role of the actors that go to war with Israel in 1947, 48. 188 00:17:59,140 --> 00:18:06,000 But after 1967, we see that we see sort of the rise of the Palestinian ness of the conflict and sort of the, 189 00:18:06,010 --> 00:18:09,610 in effect, the downgrading of the other states in relation to the conflict. 190 00:18:10,420 --> 00:18:17,310 It's also in that periods, I think what's interesting is that 1967 is also the moment at which we have resolution 242, 191 00:18:17,380 --> 00:18:21,100 the framework on which subsequent negotiations are built. 192 00:18:21,340 --> 00:18:26,200 And it's but it's also a very ambiguous, you know, ambiguous resolution. 193 00:18:26,380 --> 00:18:30,640 It's it says, you know, is it never actually says what should go first. 194 00:18:30,670 --> 00:18:34,750 It talks about is Israeli withdrawal from from from from occupied territory. 195 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:39,040 And, you know, sort of ends and peace peace agreement. 196 00:18:39,340 --> 00:18:40,750 But it doesn't talk about which goes first. 197 00:18:40,780 --> 00:18:48,100 It's very it's very for it has to be ambiguous for it to pass in in November 1967, in the in the UN Security Council. 198 00:18:48,250 --> 00:18:53,230 But it's also created problems because how do we move the negotiations on. 199 00:18:53,530 --> 00:18:56,650 Now with 1947. 200 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:06,549 So 1947, 67 is this period in which we sort of prioritise I guess the states two state interactions, 1967 to 93, 201 00:19:06,550 --> 00:19:14,440 we see the rise of sort of the Palestinians and the PLO as sort of the primary actor in in the in the in the conflict. 202 00:19:15,250 --> 00:19:20,140 The third chapter, which I'm which I'm talking about, 93 to 2000, obviously, is the high points of the Oslo process. 203 00:19:20,650 --> 00:19:28,719 And then from the second intifada onwards, we sort of have effectively seen sort of a well, look, the process is effectively collapsed. 204 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,850 It's not it's not it's not developed any further. 205 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:37,239 However, what is interesting and what I sort of try to draw out in the chapter is the emergence of a different form of engagement. 206 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,960 And it's that of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement after 2005. 207 00:19:41,110 --> 00:19:43,870 And now you have a different kind of form of engagement. 208 00:19:44,050 --> 00:19:49,450 There you have the emergence of this kind of grassroots civil society movement that's that has quite a lot 209 00:19:49,450 --> 00:19:57,040 of consensus in Palestinian Palestinian in the Palestinian community trying to influence governments, 210 00:19:57,220 --> 00:20:00,620 but on a transnational basis. So you see this kind of the. 211 00:20:00,710 --> 00:20:06,530 Building of transnational relationships between civil society groups in the Palestinian community, 212 00:20:06,530 --> 00:20:13,460 with civil society groups and solidarity groups outside as a form of way to try and sort of put pressure. 213 00:20:13,660 --> 00:20:17,540 So almost a third way, third sort of pattern. 214 00:20:18,620 --> 00:20:24,790 Now, thinking about all of this on sides, this is where this is where I sort of broken it down by by chapter. 215 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:31,100 Broadly, what we see I mean, I would possibly argue that in this earlier period of 47 to 67, 216 00:20:31,310 --> 00:20:38,090 you know, you can see examples of both active and passive conflict management at work and certainly, 217 00:20:38,090 --> 00:20:44,600 you know, sort of attempts to try and sort of actually resolve the conflict because it's seen as sort of a state based conflict. 218 00:20:44,630 --> 00:20:52,430 Partition will be the solution here. And pretty much most of the most of the most of these states, you know, sign up to that. 219 00:20:53,180 --> 00:20:59,209 We also see attempts at sort of peacekeeping. I mean, obviously, with hindsight, we look at peacekeeping now and say, okay, it's limited. 220 00:20:59,210 --> 00:21:02,030 It's not going to solve, you know, the causes of conflict. 221 00:21:02,030 --> 00:21:07,729 But, you know, this is us looking looking at it today, whereas in the period of 47, 67, you know, 222 00:21:07,730 --> 00:21:13,790 peacekeeping could have been seen as a way to actively resolve, resolve, resolve the conflicts. 223 00:21:13,790 --> 00:21:23,060 And we have the Brazilians and the Indians both contributing to peacekeeping in the in the Suez in the Sinai area prior to the 1967 war. 224 00:21:23,690 --> 00:21:27,230 We also see, you know, well, and this is where it might. 225 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:36,410 Whereas what we find in the 1967 to 93 and actually subsequently after we see much less active conflict management. 226 00:21:36,740 --> 00:21:38,600 And I guess my argument to that, 227 00:21:38,810 --> 00:21:45,290 the reason why I would suggest this is because just as the point I made about if the international environment is more open, 228 00:21:45,290 --> 00:21:51,860 we would expect to see more more efforts by rising powers to influence the process, the process. 229 00:21:52,100 --> 00:21:55,880 And if the international system is more closed, then there's less opportunities. 230 00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:04,640 I would argue that actually in this period, in the Cold War period, from 47 to 93, we do have. 231 00:22:05,590 --> 00:22:11,110 Space for, you know, for these rising powers to pursue different approaches. 232 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:18,760 This is it's not it's not a simple, you know, United States versus Soviet Union conflict that's going on there. 233 00:22:18,910 --> 00:22:25,710 There is with the context of détente and the emergence of the Third World and nonalignment, 234 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:31,240 I think there is space for these some of these actors to try and pursue alternative routes. 235 00:22:31,660 --> 00:22:37,660 By contrast, the end of the Cold War is the high points of American power, the union. 236 00:22:37,810 --> 00:22:46,480 And it's the the moment of union polarity. There's really very little space for inter for for other actors to become involved in the peace process. 237 00:22:46,630 --> 00:22:52,120 So broadly, what we find from, you know, with with the signing of the Oslo Agreement is all of these countries pretty 238 00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:56,620 much agreeing with with the rhetoric and agree and and and saying in public, 239 00:22:56,620 --> 00:23:03,670 we support the process. So then what about after to after, you know, after 2000, 2005, after the Second World War, 240 00:23:04,110 --> 00:23:11,680 it's the second intifada and the the emergence of the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement there, I think is more interesting. 241 00:23:12,790 --> 00:23:18,840 We find with you know, there is there is still this rhetorical support for the Oslo peace process. 242 00:23:18,850 --> 00:23:22,540 You'll find that all five of these countries talk about the importance of both sides 243 00:23:22,540 --> 00:23:28,000 getting behind the table and resolving their their differences through negotiations. 244 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,330 But we've also seen is the emergence of the BDS movement. 245 00:23:31,660 --> 00:23:36,730 How has that played out in relation to these these BRICS countries? 246 00:23:37,150 --> 00:23:46,190 What is interesting, I think, is when that the that the BDS prime initially focussed a lot of its attention and work on, you know, 247 00:23:46,270 --> 00:23:54,520 civil society movements and solidarity groups in the West, in North America, in Europe, because that's primarily had a lot of that. 248 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,650 That's where there's been a lot of interaction points of contact with Israel. 249 00:24:00,460 --> 00:24:06,250 So when I was doing this work and asking be a BDS campaigner, what is the, you know, 250 00:24:06,250 --> 00:24:11,830 sort of what is the status of of BDS is engagement interaction with countries, 251 00:24:12,220 --> 00:24:17,590 with civil society groups in the BRICS countries, it was more of an afterthought. 252 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:23,560 And what you find is that actually there's greater sympathy in the more democratic countries. 253 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:31,720 So countries that have a democratic, democratic process like Brazil and India and South Africa, as opposed to in, 254 00:24:31,900 --> 00:24:38,380 you know, countries like China and Russia, where the space for independent civil society is a lot more restricted. 255 00:24:38,790 --> 00:24:42,460 And at the same time, of course, you find that, you know, the BDS, 256 00:24:42,850 --> 00:24:48,040 which has been building these kind of ties with with, with, with different groups in Brazil, 257 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:58,120 India and South Africa has been doing it primarily with sort of politically left groups, trade union type movements, social and and solidarity groups. 258 00:24:58,270 --> 00:25:05,499 So in a way, it's it's has much more sympathy and it's more inclined to be heard when it when 259 00:25:05,500 --> 00:25:09,820 it when it's engaged with sort of subnational actors that are of of its ilk. 260 00:25:10,090 --> 00:25:15,040 So you see a number of achievements, at least from the BDS perspective, 261 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:21,489 in the cancellation of contracts at at state level in Brazil and also in India. 262 00:25:21,490 --> 00:25:24,730 But this is primarily by sort of state governments that are run by the left. 263 00:25:25,030 --> 00:25:26,979 And of course, South Africa as well is, you know, 264 00:25:26,980 --> 00:25:34,630 stands out significantly in the context of BDS because it is also sort of the model and the framework for for apartheid on which, 265 00:25:34,810 --> 00:25:37,800 you know, the BDS movement has built itself. So there is that. 266 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:44,770 So there's a much closer link and closer tie between BDS and South Africa than there is with these other two, 267 00:25:44,890 --> 00:25:48,040 you know, BRICS countries, which which may be considered democratic. 268 00:25:49,660 --> 00:25:53,319 So in some ways, that sort of brings me very brief. 269 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:59,560 It's a very sort of sweeping, you know, observation about, you know, the the periods that I'm looking at. 270 00:25:59,590 --> 00:26:03,790 I'm happy to talk in more detail about individual countries, if you're interested in that. 271 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:08,320 But in terms of thinking about sort of, well, okay, so, so conclusions and where do we go from here? 272 00:26:08,620 --> 00:26:12,640 And I would just break it down by, I think, the first points to make that. 273 00:26:12,970 --> 00:26:18,160 And there's there's the earlier period and the later period and the earlier period, as I said, 274 00:26:18,850 --> 00:26:22,959 was one when we when we think about the Cold War, we tend to think of it as quite closed. 275 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:28,630 But actually there was space an opportunity for, you know, the role of other outside, 276 00:26:28,750 --> 00:26:33,190 outside non us non Soviet actors to become more and more involved. 277 00:26:33,730 --> 00:26:37,059 There was competition as well going on between some of these actors. 278 00:26:37,060 --> 00:26:40,090 So, you know, there is the Sino-Soviet tensions, 279 00:26:40,090 --> 00:26:47,020 which meant that the Chinese were actively trying to cultivate ties with the PLO as a way of sort of, you know, 280 00:26:47,830 --> 00:26:53,320 pushing the Soviets to one side and and using them for as a way as a tool for, 281 00:26:53,470 --> 00:26:58,030 you know, claiming leadership of of of the Communist or the National Liberation World. 282 00:27:00,100 --> 00:27:04,240 Whereas the later period, I think after 1967, you know, the nature of the. 283 00:27:04,550 --> 00:27:07,910 It's become sort of confined to historic Palestine. 284 00:27:07,910 --> 00:27:10,790 So the mandatory territorial space of Palestine. 285 00:27:11,690 --> 00:27:17,929 It means it's also a period in which effectively the Americans become increasingly dominant initially in the 1970s. 286 00:27:17,930 --> 00:27:22,520 And we see that most notably with the Camp David talks, which pushes the Soviets out of the way. 287 00:27:22,730 --> 00:27:29,630 The Soviets whose who are what, who are Egypt's main sponsor, suddenly lose the Egyptians and Egypt sort of enters the American orbit. 288 00:27:29,780 --> 00:27:34,380 I think that's that sort of all that points to the fact that when it comes to the Oslo process, you know, 289 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:39,230 from the from from from the early nineties onwards, there is no sort of peer to the Americans. 290 00:27:39,290 --> 00:27:44,030 And in that respect, none of these BRICS powers seeks to to challenge that. 291 00:27:44,270 --> 00:27:48,380 And it is also, you know, it can very much be based on a cost benefit analysis. 292 00:27:48,530 --> 00:27:54,709 Do you really want to, you know, to challenge the American position, take over mediation, you know, 293 00:27:54,710 --> 00:28:00,890 control of the of the peace process and have it fail because that, you know, it would be an uncomfortable place to be. 294 00:28:02,540 --> 00:28:08,869 I think also that's the that's that's also quite notable that when you look at today, since 2005, you know, 295 00:28:08,870 --> 00:28:14,359 the number of times that BRICS countries have sort of put themselves forward as potential mediators under Lula, 296 00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:16,940 he often said, I'm willing to to mediate. 297 00:28:18,380 --> 00:28:27,080 Russia, including under Putin, has often put himself forward as a potential, you know, unifier of Palestinian and internal differences. 298 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:35,630 So back in 2006, after Hamas won the legislative elections, he said, I'm willing to talk to Hamas, just as you know, I mean, 299 00:28:35,810 --> 00:28:42,410 just as well, at the same time that people were concerned that Hamas was was was was considered to be a terrorist organisation. 300 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:47,930 More recently, in the last couple of weeks in the in the last month, Putin has talked about, you know, 301 00:28:47,930 --> 00:28:54,799 putting Russia forward as a as a as a as a as a as a broker for talks between Fatah and Hamas to 302 00:28:54,800 --> 00:29:00,230 try and resolve this the the national differences that exist in the Palestinian national movement. 303 00:29:00,950 --> 00:29:04,609 But a lot of this is rhetoric. It's not really followed up by anything. 304 00:29:04,610 --> 00:29:06,920 And we see this as well in the Chinese position as well. 305 00:29:07,190 --> 00:29:14,830 2013, the Chinese put forward a four point plan saying and they received quite a bit of coverage at the time about trying to say. 306 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:21,290 But again, it was very much following the same same language of of the Oslo peace process of saying we can mediate, 307 00:29:21,290 --> 00:29:27,280 we're willing to bring the Israelis and Palestinians together, but they didn't follow through on that. 308 00:29:27,290 --> 00:29:32,929 And that 2013 proposal was then, you know, overshadowed by, if everyone remembers this, 309 00:29:32,930 --> 00:29:38,570 John Kerry's attempts at shuttle diplomacy for about nine, ten months, which fell apart, collapsed. 310 00:29:39,710 --> 00:29:48,320 The Chinese revisited it again in 2017. So in July, they went in the space of about a month. 311 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,380 You had Netanyahu in Beijing, followed by Mahmoud Abbas. 312 00:29:51,650 --> 00:29:56,540 And of course, both times the Chinese said, we're willing to, you know, to be here, we're willing to sort of broker talks. 313 00:29:57,470 --> 00:30:01,340 But they didn't push forward and everyone kind of forgot about this until December. 314 00:30:01,580 --> 00:30:10,760 So December 2017, the Chinese hosted a seminar between a group of of delegations, one from the Israeli Knesset, 315 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:17,810 actually led by the Knesset, the head of the speaker of the Knesset, and also some representatives from the PLO. 316 00:30:18,620 --> 00:30:21,559 This happened, I think, to two or three days just before Christmas, 317 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,880 and it was just about a week or so after the Americans had said they were moving the embassy to Jerusalem. 318 00:30:26,150 --> 00:30:31,250 So this times were not propitious, propitious for this. 319 00:30:31,430 --> 00:30:35,089 But at the same time, what was really striking is that even though they they found it very difficult, 320 00:30:35,090 --> 00:30:38,720 the Chinese, to get the two sides to even agree to a non-binding resolution. 321 00:30:39,140 --> 00:30:46,910 So eventually they managed to broker some kind of communique, but they've not followed up on that since. 322 00:30:47,060 --> 00:30:52,280 And I think this also highlights the, you know, sort of the the tensions at work here, because on the one hand, 323 00:30:52,550 --> 00:30:57,560 you know, it's actually a really difficult conflict to actually make any meaningful headway. 324 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,680 I mean, the fact that the Americans haven't been able to do much over the last few years highlights that. 325 00:31:01,730 --> 00:31:04,490 So what you find, though, but what's really interesting to see how the BRICS, 326 00:31:04,490 --> 00:31:08,660 both individually and collectively, have critiqued and challenged the Americans and said, 327 00:31:08,870 --> 00:31:16,040 you're not, you know, we need to expand, open up this this, this conflict to international negotiation, mediation. 328 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,150 We're willing to be sponsors. 329 00:31:17,510 --> 00:31:24,710 But at the same time, when it comes to, you know, push comes to shove of the very wary about actually becoming actively involved in that process. 330 00:31:25,700 --> 00:31:28,819 So that's sort of the the essence of things. 331 00:31:28,820 --> 00:31:34,639 But the question is then where do we go from here? And I mean, you can probably break this up into sort of two different two different ways. 332 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:40,280 So if you're thinking about this from a policymaking point of view, obviously the question is, you know, do we keep Oslo? 333 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:44,899 Do we keep this this this peace process as the model for for future negotiations? 334 00:31:44,900 --> 00:31:48,920 Or do we try and find something different? And where where does it end? 335 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:55,370 And does what leverage do BRICS countries actually have in trying to get these parties behind the table? 336 00:31:55,370 --> 00:32:04,220 Again, you might ask, well, if you you know, China with its current belt and road proposals and initiatives in the in primarily in central. 337 00:32:04,300 --> 00:32:08,260 Asia, but increasingly reaching the Middle East. What influence, 338 00:32:08,260 --> 00:32:13,419 what leverage can the Chinese make by using their belt and road projects in 339 00:32:13,420 --> 00:32:19,120 Israel in the and with the Palestinians as a way of incentivising negotiations? 340 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:25,540 My argument to that is probably unlikely because the Chinese tend to say that we like to not interfere in internal affairs. 341 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,170 But but the nature of of setting up a project, 342 00:32:29,170 --> 00:32:36,730 of signing a contract with with with a business to do work in a country is going to necessarily necessitates taking a side and. 343 00:32:37,710 --> 00:32:38,970 From the Russian perspective. 344 00:32:38,970 --> 00:32:46,410 I mean, what's been interesting is, you know, from from its position in Syria, where it's obviously had influence over the last few years, 345 00:32:46,620 --> 00:32:51,809 it's been striking to see how much how it's trying to leverage that influence in relation to 346 00:32:51,810 --> 00:32:57,720 Israel in order to sort of coordinate action over Syria but also in the wider Middle East. 347 00:32:57,750 --> 00:33:04,709 So at the moment we talk about, you know, Putin's efforts in relation to the conflict as more as theatre, 348 00:33:04,710 --> 00:33:12,060 but is there a is there a way is a scope for him to actually leverage his position in the Middle East into something more substantive? 349 00:33:12,810 --> 00:33:18,150 And then in the case of sort of Brazil and South Africa, I mean, we have Jewish communities. 350 00:33:18,150 --> 00:33:22,950 Are these communities that could be influenced in relation to the conflict? 351 00:33:23,130 --> 00:33:28,440 I think that's one of the things that I think is missing. And now it points to where do we go in terms of scholarship. 352 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:35,549 I think one of the limits, the limitations of this of of the work so far that I've done is that I've primarily 353 00:33:35,550 --> 00:33:40,230 sort of focussed on sort of the high level sort of state to state interactions. 354 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:47,700 I think what might be quite interesting and this is this could be potential future work is to look at the nature and role of, you know, 355 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:56,190 solidarity groups or sort of Jewish and Arab populations in some of these countries and the inter and the 356 00:33:56,190 --> 00:34:04,530 and the impacts that they may or may not have in relation to the the politics of of of the conflict. 357 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,090 So one of the things I found quite striking is that when I was interviewing for this book, 358 00:34:09,390 --> 00:34:16,050 when I asked the the Israeli one of the Israeli diplomats who were responsible for Latin American affairs, 359 00:34:16,230 --> 00:34:20,130 you know, what they thought about sort of Lula's influence and involvement in all of this? 360 00:34:20,490 --> 00:34:25,440 They said, well, one thing about Lula is that he thinks that, you know, yes, he comes from a trade union background. 361 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:32,250 He's so he's used to sort of, you know, brokering agreements between sort of employers and employees. 362 00:34:33,060 --> 00:34:37,170 He sort of said he sees this as sort of a way of just getting people into the room together and saying, 363 00:34:37,170 --> 00:34:42,659 yeah, you know, I've had in Brazil, we've got experience of we've got Jewish Brazilians and Arab Brazilians. 364 00:34:42,660 --> 00:34:46,889 So we can get them together and we can yeah, they can they can resolve the differences. 365 00:34:46,890 --> 00:34:53,220 But as the diplomat said to me, this is not at what's what's missing from that is that actually this is you know. 366 00:34:54,340 --> 00:35:00,550 There is something that holds those Jewish, Brazilian and Arab Brazilian populations together that Brazilian does Brazilian ness. 367 00:35:00,820 --> 00:35:03,490 There isn't this in this particular conflict, and he's missing that. 368 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:09,850 So that does sort of raise this interesting question about sort of what is the role of these diaspora groups in relation to the conflicts? 369 00:35:10,750 --> 00:35:15,640 Which I think would be quite interesting to explore and especially in the in the in the case of of of of Israel. 370 00:35:16,140 --> 00:35:21,100 And I also think, you know, in terms of sort of other work that could potentially be done in relation to this, 371 00:35:21,310 --> 00:35:25,150 it's not to just limit this to to these five countries, these BRICS countries. 372 00:35:25,300 --> 00:35:30,250 There are other middle, middle powers out there that could could certainly be examined and explored. 373 00:35:30,250 --> 00:35:32,350 And I'm also doing that, doing this myself. 374 00:35:32,620 --> 00:35:39,279 One of the things that one of the papers that I'm now working on and I should be presenting at Christmas and in the at the Middle East Studies 375 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:46,750 Conference in a few months time is on the role of Muslim majority sorry governments from Muslim majority countries in relation to the Middle East, 376 00:35:47,140 --> 00:35:49,210 primarily Malaysia and Indonesia. 377 00:35:49,300 --> 00:35:55,450 I'm quite interested in their interaction and engagement with the middle, with the with Middle East politics more generally, 378 00:35:55,450 --> 00:36:03,150 but also specifically that of Israel-Palestine, because Israel-Palestine maintains a very highly symbolic dimension and elements to this. 379 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:08,020 So how much of this sort of plays out in terms of their domestic politics, but also in their foreign policy? 380 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:15,940 And I think also finally, you know, there is the the role of the BDS in all of this. 381 00:36:15,940 --> 00:36:23,470 I've pointed out that this is kind of a new new ish sort of elements of civil society, you know, 382 00:36:23,950 --> 00:36:30,670 relations on foreign policy, transnational groups, activities, and their impact on foreign policy. 383 00:36:30,850 --> 00:36:33,610 Certainly, I think there's much more scope to do work there. 384 00:36:33,730 --> 00:36:40,270 The role of the BDS, not just in the most obvious places that we've that's that's tends tends to be looked at in North America and Europe. 385 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,300 But in these other parts of the world that have significant, you know, 386 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:49,840 Israeli markets and significant, you know, sympathy or solidarity with with the Palestinians. 387 00:36:50,110 --> 00:36:53,530 And so I would probably leave it at that. So thank you very much. 388 00:36:59,120 --> 00:36:59,870 Thank you so much.