1 00:00:00,510 --> 00:00:04,080 So can you just start by giving me your name and your current affiliation? 2 00:00:04,860 --> 00:00:14,280 So my name is Schnetzer and I am a professor in what is soon to become the Department of Biology. 3 00:00:14,490 --> 00:00:18,480 But we've been zoology and plant sciences so far. 4 00:00:19,050 --> 00:00:24,420 And my official title is Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology. 5 00:00:25,020 --> 00:00:30,300 Thanks very much. And without telling me your entire story, because I think I didn't want to add to that. 6 00:00:31,020 --> 00:00:35,880 Can you just in a few sentences, give me an idea of how you got to where you are now? 7 00:00:37,480 --> 00:00:43,890 So I was born in Calcutta, spent some of my early childhood in Africa and in the United Kingdom, 8 00:00:44,460 --> 00:00:51,360 and then returned to Calcutta for my what I call my formative years secondary school. 9 00:00:52,620 --> 00:01:02,460 And then, by coincidence, almost ended up at university in the United States at Princeton. 10 00:01:03,030 --> 00:01:08,070 And there I studied a combination of biology and mathematics, 11 00:01:08,970 --> 00:01:15,830 which what I realised I was always very interested in applying mathematics to real world problems, 12 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,079 and I thought physics was perhaps the right field for me. 13 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:29,400 But then I found this new burgeoning area of mathematical biology as an undergraduate, which really attracts me. 14 00:01:30,300 --> 00:01:38,040 And that's where I started thinking, I mean, engaging in all of that so that my graduation, 15 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:48,390 87, came to the United Kingdom to to London to do a Ph.D. in mathematical epidemiology. 16 00:01:48,630 --> 00:02:02,790 That's the Imperial College at Imperial College, and then got a fellowship with the Wellcome Trust, early Career Training Fellowship. 17 00:02:03,300 --> 00:02:11,040 Well, just last autumn, starting that fellowship, and then I got a senior fellowship. 18 00:02:11,700 --> 00:02:22,700 And in the meantime, we've talks. And then in 1999, I secured this permanent position within the department zoology. 19 00:02:23,460 --> 00:02:32,190 So how would you encapsulate the kind of big question that drives your science and your post you work? 20 00:02:32,370 --> 00:02:41,370 So I'm broadly interested in how health well in host pathogen systems and how 21 00:02:41,370 --> 00:02:48,420 they interact at an ecological level and how that drives that revolution. 22 00:02:48,900 --> 00:02:54,750 So the evolutionary ecology of infectious disease systems is what I'm interested in. 23 00:02:55,320 --> 00:03:04,140 And but you take a mathematical approach to. So my training, as I've said, has been in mathematical modelling. 24 00:03:04,650 --> 00:03:18,750 So yes. But my my the fundamental approach is very much to develop mathematical models to try and gain insights into how these systems work. 25 00:03:20,010 --> 00:03:30,870 But in the last decade or so, we have gone from these mathematical models to testing some of the hypotheses they generate. 26 00:03:31,410 --> 00:03:40,200 And in fact, this has had some very significant translational impacts. 27 00:03:40,740 --> 00:03:49,950 So a model we developed for influenza, which we published in 2007, so 50 years ago, that was quite controversial. 28 00:03:49,950 --> 00:03:52,950 We tested it. How did you test? 29 00:03:52,970 --> 00:03:58,080 And we tested it in the laboratory by. 30 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:05,280 So so the idea with mathematical models is we take what data we have and we try and 31 00:04:05,700 --> 00:04:11,670 come up with a coherent hypothesis of what's actually going on in these systems. 32 00:04:12,180 --> 00:04:21,840 And in 2007, we suggested that perhaps the conventional view of our influence that was evolving, the influenza virus population was not correct. 33 00:04:22,620 --> 00:04:34,560 And that actually most of it was driven by immune responses targeting particular regions of the virus, which had a limited amount of variability. 34 00:04:34,890 --> 00:04:39,200 So the human population was driving the evolution of the virus. That was already understood. 35 00:04:39,510 --> 00:04:46,470 But the idea was that the the main targets of immunity were highly variable. 36 00:04:47,130 --> 00:04:53,760 And we posited that actually the main targets of immunity were not as variable. 37 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,060 They were variable, but they had limited variability. 38 00:04:58,030 --> 00:05:01,500 And so obviously this was. Met with some scepticism. 39 00:05:02,870 --> 00:05:06,060 Obviously, the only way to resolve all of this is by experiment. 40 00:05:06,690 --> 00:05:15,360 So the first experiment we did, because one of the testable predictions of this model was that children who had only, 41 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:21,420 for example, experienced a single flu strain would have immunity against previous flu strains. 42 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:31,770 Because of the limited amount of variability, the flu population would be forced to recycle some of these regions. 43 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:39,840 So we tested that by taking blood from children and looking to see if they could. 44 00:05:40,260 --> 00:05:49,620 The antibodies in their blood from recent exposure could neutralise historic losses as far back as 1934, for example. 45 00:05:50,280 --> 00:05:53,340 And we found very good evidence that that they could. Yes. 46 00:05:53,430 --> 00:06:05,549 And then we went further and great Thompson as Doc had employed to do this, to finish step two, 47 00:06:05,550 --> 00:06:16,950 to try and identify those regions which was successful in doing which then formed the basis of a new universal flu vaccine, 48 00:06:17,340 --> 00:06:27,990 which we have patented and licensed to a an industry US investor who is now helping us to really take this. 49 00:06:28,710 --> 00:06:35,490 So the idea being that instead of having to redesign the flu vaccine every year, which has happened recently and if we just have one vaccine. 50 00:06:35,730 --> 00:06:40,860 That's correct. Yeah. And so that vaccine has made it to the clinic at. 51 00:06:41,070 --> 00:06:50,250 Oh, no. Yes. But we have got the fewest know we have the patent for it that that's been granted and and it has been 52 00:06:50,250 --> 00:06:57,690 licensed and we are now trying to develop it to a stage where obviously then it would have to be had over to. 53 00:06:59,620 --> 00:07:05,770 Well, probably industry too to take it forward or month. 54 00:07:05,950 --> 00:07:10,930 I mean, ideally for me it would be something that was done as a different level. 55 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:17,830 But that's because, I mean, I'm motivated very much by principles. 56 00:07:18,010 --> 00:07:21,070 I guess you socialist in that I, 57 00:07:21,430 --> 00:07:31,260 I think life saving treatments and vaccines should really be under the control of the government rather than before them. 58 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:41,890 Mm hmm. So that was was that essentially a new departure for you to to take one of your theoretical predictions and really test it in the lab? 59 00:07:42,580 --> 00:07:55,450 I've always been a collaborator very closely with the laboratory scientists and clinicians and field workers to test hypotheses, 60 00:07:55,450 --> 00:08:02,200 because I think it's fruitless to simply hypothesise and then not test something. 61 00:08:02,770 --> 00:08:07,810 So that is what I've always done in my career. 62 00:08:08,290 --> 00:08:12,400 But this was the first time that I had the opportunity to do so in my own laboratory. 63 00:08:13,300 --> 00:08:24,760 And I, you know, did not anticipate that it would lead to such a tangible translation situation where, 64 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:36,580 you know, the impact and obviously we're a long way from saying this is actually going to work, but it's. 65 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:42,410 It's actually happening, which is it's not what I expected. 66 00:08:43,070 --> 00:08:50,299 So it's it's it's a wonderful vindication of how theoretical work can be. 67 00:08:50,300 --> 00:08:55,160 It can have obvious, it can have translational impact. 68 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:59,240 I do think that it it doesn't mean that I mean, 69 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:05,090 I strongly believe that theoretical work should that the work that people do within academic settings 70 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:17,630 that we should not be obliged to demonstrate sort of in the short term these sorts of tangible impacts. 71 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:27,560 But it's very pleasing. This is why what happened with our research and you know, it puts me in a position, I guess, 72 00:09:27,560 --> 00:09:37,040 where I can say that this has happened and this is what will happen if we invest in academia and in basic scientific research. 73 00:09:37,550 --> 00:09:46,040 But it's important also not to put scientists under pressure to provide examples of this kind of impact. 74 00:09:47,810 --> 00:10:01,190 So let's finally arrive a bit can remember how you first heard about it and how soon you started thinking this was something that you fitted into. 75 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:09,370 Well, obviously, you're an expert in the evolution of of pathogens, so obviously going to be to support that. 76 00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:12,290 Take me back to how you first. So give it. 77 00:10:12,680 --> 00:10:24,290 So I think the report starts when we see early December 2019, when the first reports started coming out, coming out of China. 78 00:10:24,950 --> 00:10:36,799 And my reaction was not very different to what it is now, which is that, you know, 79 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:44,860 I think we do regularly experience new waves of or in some senses known viruses. 80 00:10:44,870 --> 00:10:51,570 So I consider SARS-CoV-2 to be part of a known family of coronaviruses. 81 00:10:53,720 --> 00:11:05,780 And typically and this is true of South Sars-cov-1, what the toll that it takes is on the vulnerable sectors of the population. 82 00:11:06,620 --> 00:11:15,590 And so right at the outset, I felt that we should be very you know, we should have a proper plan in place to protect the vulnerable. 83 00:11:16,340 --> 00:11:21,710 And the rest of us would do we did not need to worry. 84 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:28,940 You probably get sick. Someone's might get quite sick. You know, we didn't need to worry. 85 00:11:28,940 --> 00:11:33,140 And in fact, the way that we deal with these viruses, 86 00:11:33,650 --> 00:11:47,840 including the fold that were in circulation time is by maintaining a state of endemic equilibrium where most of us are immune at any point in time, 87 00:11:49,250 --> 00:11:55,370 which means that the risk to the vulnerable population is low or as low as it could possibly be. 88 00:11:56,540 --> 00:12:04,960 And also because the vulnerable population will by then, you know, an endemic state, 89 00:12:04,970 --> 00:12:17,840 most of the vulnerable population will have been exposed, you know, before they become vulnerable, they are at low risk. 90 00:12:19,220 --> 00:12:23,410 But that's you could see that that was would be a state that it would evolve to. 91 00:12:23,420 --> 00:12:30,230 Yes. But so in the interim, you really need to focus and focus focus on protecting the vulnerable. 92 00:12:30,290 --> 00:12:33,410 Yeah, that was really the main the main thing. 93 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:41,090 And one way to protect the vulnerable, it's actually for the rest of the population to become immune. 94 00:12:43,490 --> 00:12:48,220 But while that's happening. Hmm. So that's. 95 00:12:48,230 --> 00:12:56,299 That's just fine. Yeah. Yeah. So. So that was my first my first reaction was and Andrew published a paper on that at the end of March. 96 00:12:56,300 --> 00:13:00,470 Is that so? That was so this is December. So that was in December. 97 00:13:00,470 --> 00:13:06,950 I just my feeling was, okay, this will spread to has already spread. 98 00:13:07,010 --> 00:13:13,819 Mm hmm. It had to happen. I mean, knowing the rates at which these sorts of infections spread itself, I mean, 99 00:13:13,820 --> 00:13:21,320 some people have been fairly relaxed because South one had been contained fairly well and measures had been contained in particular area. 100 00:13:21,330 --> 00:13:29,210 So the idea that it might become globally significant was something that I think quite a lot of people were relatively complacent about it. 101 00:13:29,690 --> 00:13:34,180 That's true that that was a possibility, that it would not spread far. 102 00:13:34,670 --> 00:13:36,080 I think the reasons why. 103 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:47,790 Source who's actually content is because we have a lot of Cros immunity to these things because they are part of the family of coronaviruses. 104 00:13:48,390 --> 00:13:56,730 So, yes, some kinds of common cold I. Yeah, I know that they are, they typically have very little impact except of course, sadly, 105 00:13:56,730 --> 00:14:02,820 you know, some people will die, but far fewer than pneumococcal disease, for example. 106 00:14:04,030 --> 00:14:14,380 Um, so, yes, there was a possibility that it would remain, uh, you know, it wouldn't spread, spread out. 107 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:23,940 So that was one possibility. But I think it was clear already by mid-December that it was exponential. 108 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,609 And so my you know, that was expensive. 109 00:14:28,610 --> 00:14:35,750 But I would have my gut feeling was that this is going to spread and that it was already spreading. 110 00:14:36,590 --> 00:14:41,720 And so when I got ill at the end of December, I thought, I've got I think I've got this. 111 00:14:43,550 --> 00:14:53,360 And several other people were very ill between that period, that time in March when we locked down. 112 00:14:54,050 --> 00:14:57,440 And I think they that it was that. 113 00:14:57,710 --> 00:15:05,780 I still strongly believe that the virus had spread quite substantially in some parts of the country in that period. 114 00:15:07,610 --> 00:15:10,999 So, yes. So there are two possibilities. 115 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:15,680 One is that it would have been contained, and that was a very reasonable thing to think. 116 00:15:16,700 --> 00:15:21,679 It's very unfortunate that the whole discussion on this has been so polarised. 117 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:27,500 And, you know, it's not it was not unreasonable to believe that it would not spread. 118 00:15:28,310 --> 00:15:33,590 Not unreasonable to think it had only just arrived. But it was also not unreasonable. 119 00:15:33,710 --> 00:15:36,710 And I think the right answer was that it was already spread. 120 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:44,180 And that one of the reasons I thought so is because the detection was by a very 121 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:49,130 obviously bright clinician to detect a cluster of a particular type of pneumonia. 122 00:15:49,340 --> 00:15:55,909 And to get to that point where you see a cluster of cases in the hospital to me 123 00:15:55,910 --> 00:16:01,790 suggests it's been spreading for at least a month or so in that population. 124 00:16:02,690 --> 00:16:11,870 And given the amount of air traffic and just general connectivity and social connectivity, it seemed very unlikely that it hadn't arrived here. 125 00:16:12,230 --> 00:16:19,280 That one possibility would have been it arrived soon, fizzles out. Was it, you know, at that point? 126 00:16:19,850 --> 00:16:34,489 But I did feel that there was a strong likelihood that it would spread widely and that we needed to be worried not for the general population, 127 00:16:34,490 --> 00:16:38,510 but for those at risk. Mm hmm. And so what was that? 128 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,390 I may not have gone back far enough. Was that there was a march publication. Was that your first? 129 00:16:42,410 --> 00:16:45,710 Okay. So what happened after that is that it was clear it was spreading. 130 00:16:47,090 --> 00:16:50,730 And so by the time it got to Islington. Yes, exactly. 131 00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:57,979 Initially, but it was also very obvious that it was doing exactly what these coronaviruses or many of these viruses do, 132 00:16:57,980 --> 00:17:01,700 which is particularly affecting vulnerable, 133 00:17:02,420 --> 00:17:11,210 you know, people who are either immune senescence, meaning their immune systems wanted to handle this or people with co-morbidities. 134 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:22,880 So it seemed to me that what needed to happen straightaway was some very, you know, proper shielding. 135 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:35,130 Measures to be put in place, proper recommendations to put in place for those who might be at risk. 136 00:17:35,910 --> 00:17:44,490 And for the rest of the population to simply go about their business as normal seemed to me to be the rational strategy. 137 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:59,580 But it also seemed clear, and I did not expect lockdowns which have never, ever been part of any public health policy to be institutions in this case. 138 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:09,000 But then it became clear they were going to be instituted. And that filled me with dread because I come from India. 139 00:18:10,500 --> 00:18:16,300 The idea of locking down in a slum. Is instant death. 140 00:18:18,310 --> 00:18:30,350 It's an instant loss of life, instant hunger, instant lack of access to the limited kind of forms of education and social care. 141 00:18:30,370 --> 00:18:38,530 Anything that you receive as it is, of course, in this country for a segment of the population. 142 00:18:39,790 --> 00:18:50,139 So that was what that was what motivated me to intrude into this debate, because up to that point, 143 00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:57,700 of course, and subsequently, I was never consulted by the university on this. 144 00:18:59,110 --> 00:19:12,489 I mean, you're a professor of epidemiology with a believed to be fairly decent track record in this area also with the next thing you 145 00:19:12,490 --> 00:19:23,320 know was making vaccines that um but nobody thought to talk to me speak to me obviously the government was interfacing with it, 146 00:19:24,010 --> 00:19:27,940 understandably so. 147 00:19:29,770 --> 00:19:32,440 And that's one I've always stated these things. 148 00:19:33,250 --> 00:19:43,330 But at that point I was so concerned about this twist, this term that I felt I felt I wanted to do something. 149 00:19:44,140 --> 00:19:50,110 But then what could I do? I mean. My expertise was in mathematical modelling. 150 00:19:52,140 --> 00:19:55,920 So I went back to look. I mean, so then I did beautiful like I do, 151 00:19:55,920 --> 00:20:04,319 which is to put out a paper to ask people to critically examine the assumptions under which we 152 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:14,780 were imprisoned and the wars that happened and what would have been produced by being killed, 153 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,940 which which is completely valid. 154 00:20:20,580 --> 00:20:27,990 What they've done is that produces a model, a sort of computer simulation of a standard academic process, 155 00:20:28,410 --> 00:20:37,030 and they had fitted to such data as were at the time that what our paper in March 156 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:44,480 for people to read was still preprint forms no journal be accepted to state. 157 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:51,150 So it seems to be a political statement rather than scientific paper. 158 00:20:51,550 --> 00:20:59,460 So what that scientific paper says is that you can actually fit a whole range of models to theoretical data. 159 00:21:00,510 --> 00:21:06,510 So rather than say this is what's going to happen and make it predict from prediction what we 160 00:21:06,510 --> 00:21:14,760 need to do as we go out and collect data and see to what extent it's already spread and which, 161 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:22,390 you know, it might spin that once one has had that data, you'd still say, well, actually, we must lock down. 162 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:29,640 I'm not a policymaker, but I felt that that premise needed to be examined. 163 00:21:30,150 --> 00:21:33,480 And the only way to do that is to try and find out how many people already out, 164 00:21:34,470 --> 00:21:38,640 which in practice is uncontroversial and that there's nothing in that study. 165 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:44,759 Actually, what happened that, you know, David Stewart made this he made the spike protein so that he could do the ELISA test. 166 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:50,550 And, you know, even before that, we and in my life, Craig Thomson, 167 00:21:50,940 --> 00:22:00,120 who had developed the flu vaccine for which we had to have this essay to test whether people would have neutralising antibodies. 168 00:22:00,420 --> 00:22:08,400 Within a week, Craig had developed an essay to look for antibodies, to neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. 169 00:22:09,030 --> 00:22:12,700 So we had that fact, but then we couldn't get the samples. 170 00:22:12,750 --> 00:22:18,659 I mean, what should have happened at that point is there should have been a national coordination because the allies, 171 00:22:18,660 --> 00:22:22,440 US and all of those other techniques at that point were still quite. 172 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:29,990 They have been validated, all clapping. 173 00:22:30,630 --> 00:22:38,370 Yeah, there was a very big achievement in that. I'm not saying that the methodology that we developed results was perfect either, 174 00:22:38,370 --> 00:22:48,509 but what we should have done is we should have all had a coordinated effort to try and understand what the level, 175 00:22:48,510 --> 00:22:53,430 you know, how far the virus had spread and what was your hunch. 176 00:22:53,650 --> 00:23:01,560 But I thought it might just be I still think it spread quite had quite spread quite considerably by then in certain parts of the country. 177 00:23:01,830 --> 00:23:08,550 So we finally got some samples from Scotland which indicated that it had arrived there. 178 00:23:09,180 --> 00:23:14,730 It had arrived probably around the end of March I'm sorry, end of February. 179 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:25,320 And we could see we were looking at blood donors. You could see that the rates were creeping up into April. 180 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:31,710 So it spread a bit, but then it was halted. And the reason it was halted is because of seasonality. 181 00:23:33,390 --> 00:23:37,240 So once you move into the warmer. Yes, yes, yes. 182 00:23:37,290 --> 00:23:39,860 Warm months. Yeah. Stop spreading. Yes. Yes. 183 00:23:40,260 --> 00:23:47,760 So so what you had at that point was a heterogeneous profile where I think in London it had spread quite considerably. 184 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:54,510 In other parts it had not. But the illness serology study was only finding about 10%. 185 00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:58,980 The earnest strategy study was conducted. 186 00:23:59,070 --> 00:24:04,649 So one of the problems with doing serology, Juventus was the first one. 187 00:24:04,650 --> 00:24:09,450 Not everyone develops antibodies. Secondly, they indicate a very rapid rate. 188 00:24:10,020 --> 00:24:16,680 So unlike flu, you can't actually figure out the extent to which it's spread. 189 00:24:17,070 --> 00:24:24,960 So under the throne had called for serology studies. But when they happened, do you think that actually the data were not? 190 00:24:26,310 --> 00:24:33,700 Well, the data, yeah. I mean, they're reliable data, but they don't you have to factor in the decay rate of the antibodies you realise. 191 00:24:34,260 --> 00:24:44,420 Well there are lots of things. First of all, what I said where I had hoped that we'd be able to throw out and say, look, 90% people already had it. 192 00:24:44,730 --> 00:24:50,430 I mean, that I think about 30, 40% would have had it. 193 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:58,530 I think that's correct because in London in September, Seropositivity was 20%. 194 00:24:59,250 --> 00:25:17,640 So if you factor in the decay rate, I think that was a pretty serious increase in seropositivity in exposure in the early January, February of 2020. 195 00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:27,510 I think that's the well, now, two years on, it's the only way to explain the dynamics that we've observed at the time. 196 00:25:27,780 --> 00:25:32,040 As you say, there was the seasonality, but though seasonality tends to come into it. 197 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:39,780 Yeah. But also the fact we had lockdown. Yes, but the lockdowns that we know, they did not do anything to stop the spread of the virus. 198 00:25:40,860 --> 00:25:45,510 So we didn't them. So there were two competing hypotheses. 199 00:25:46,050 --> 00:25:48,180 One is that the lockdown stopped the spread. 200 00:25:48,930 --> 00:26:01,290 The other is that a combination of herd immunity and seasonality caused it can explain the epidemic patterns everywhere. 201 00:26:02,820 --> 00:26:08,400 There's two opposite poles. Obviously, the truth lies somewhere in between. 202 00:26:08,820 --> 00:26:11,640 But the data suggests that very much the lockdowns didn't. 203 00:26:12,330 --> 00:26:18,780 And it's not something I just the lockdowns would do something is the question I was trying to get 204 00:26:18,780 --> 00:26:28,530 into the to be debated was how we dealt with the situation given the lockdowns have a very high cost. 205 00:26:29,100 --> 00:26:35,520 So I was not saying lockdowns don't work in 2020 because I didn't know nobody here. 206 00:26:36,300 --> 00:26:39,570 What I was saying is that lockdowns have an enormous cost. 207 00:26:40,230 --> 00:26:43,920 So let's try this other strategy of focus protection instead. 208 00:26:45,750 --> 00:26:50,550 It's not because lockdowns don't work. I didn't know that had. 209 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:56,480 We haven't we know that some we don't know. 210 00:26:56,550 --> 00:26:57,600 We didn't know then. 211 00:26:58,620 --> 00:27:05,670 You know, obviously, again, with lockdowns, you know that a full lockdown, if everyone's locked into their homes, it's got to work. 212 00:27:06,450 --> 00:27:17,010 You know that. You know, it doesn't it's logical to assume that some level of restrictions on movement will reduce the spread. 213 00:27:18,420 --> 00:27:23,400 But what we don't know if you look at the way that these systems behave. 214 00:27:24,150 --> 00:27:33,090 A small aid reduction, even half. So if even if you halve the rate at which something spreads, it will still spread. 215 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:41,730 And obviously, the lockdown wasn't ever total because that was those things that had to keep going in absolute health care settings, for instance. 216 00:27:42,020 --> 00:27:46,770 That's exactly where we know that strong infection occurred. 217 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:54,600 Yes. They have to keep working. Exactly. So given that, you know, a complete, you know, gaffer tape looked at it, 218 00:27:55,110 --> 00:28:00,000 you've seen what happens when you try and institute it, that that wasn't going to happen. 219 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,570 We know that if you completely lock everyone, that it can't possibly spread. 220 00:28:04,290 --> 00:28:08,609 You know that if you do lock anyone down, it will spread. But what? 221 00:28:08,610 --> 00:28:11,760 What's the shape of the curve in between? 222 00:28:12,380 --> 00:28:20,820 We do not know that we didn't know about them. We do know now that it's actually that it goes up very quickly. 223 00:28:22,740 --> 00:28:25,970 You know, as soon as you abandon the complete lockdown state. 224 00:28:26,020 --> 00:28:30,600 Yeah, it very quickly, it just spreads. 225 00:28:30,690 --> 00:28:36,780 And that is entirely in the nature of these of how infectious diseases of this sort spread. 226 00:28:37,170 --> 00:28:39,390 And we've seen with them, for example, you know, 227 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:48,120 there was a study that came out showing that 25% of New Yorkers got infected between April and May this year. 228 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:57,000 Yeah. 2022 this year. Yes. Yes. Now, there is no reason to believe that exactly the same thing did not happen two years ago. 229 00:28:59,190 --> 00:29:02,819 There is this idea that is more transmissible. 230 00:29:02,820 --> 00:29:07,740 I think that's absolute garbage. I think there's absolutely no reason to believe that. 231 00:29:09,060 --> 00:29:14,360 I think in the case, there is nothing in basic epidemiological. 232 00:29:14,370 --> 00:29:22,650 You know, there is very little that I do. I think that's something that people are conveniently believing in right now. 233 00:29:23,610 --> 00:29:28,960 But I think that's the first word that came along was very wrong. 234 00:29:29,790 --> 00:29:34,350 You didn't need to be very transmissible anyway. If you just look at standard epidemiological model. 235 00:29:34,710 --> 00:29:39,510 As long as you have an arm that's an excess of unity, it will spread. 236 00:29:41,990 --> 00:29:47,760 And when you come into a naive population, it will spread very quickly. 237 00:29:48,240 --> 00:30:01,140 And what the all these non-pharmaceutical interventions do is they lower I mean, they lower the herd immunity threshold. 238 00:30:01,260 --> 00:30:06,060 Yes. A little bit or maybe a lot depends. 239 00:30:06,630 --> 00:30:13,920 As I said, we didn't know at the time to what extent it could lower it, but they do low rates, I'm sure. 240 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,170 But it doesn't make a difference. 241 00:30:16,620 --> 00:30:24,120 So there was an article in New York Times yesterday which said, yes, these interventions work, but they don't make a difference. 242 00:30:25,890 --> 00:30:32,010 And although it's paradoxical, I think that's correct in some ways. 243 00:30:32,370 --> 00:30:41,250 But they there's no reason to completely say, of course, it doesn't work and or not wear a mask when you're visiting your home. 244 00:30:41,450 --> 00:30:47,339 But that's you know, one doesn't need to dismiss it all, particularly as an individual level. 245 00:30:47,340 --> 00:30:54,660 I think you should take every precaution you possibly can if you're visiting a vulnerable person and also, 246 00:30:54,720 --> 00:31:03,510 you know, locking down or isolating vulnerable people from risk, particularly at would risk, is very high. 247 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:09,070 I hope it works because otherwise, what else do we have really think? 248 00:31:09,750 --> 00:31:18,150 Well, I think that was the crux of it. I mean, my reading of the responses to your initial paper and subsequent look come up to 249 00:31:18,300 --> 00:31:25,800 me was not that you would use your theoretical approach was wrong in any way, 250 00:31:26,070 --> 00:31:31,920 but that it simply wasn't practical on the grounds that, first of all, how do you identify who's vulnerable? 251 00:31:32,190 --> 00:31:39,270 Because it doesn't just mean everybody over 80. If you've got ethnic issues, you've got people coming forward facing. 252 00:31:39,420 --> 00:31:45,060 It's very public facing. So I think that actually comes to we all get into a great barrier. 253 00:31:45,130 --> 00:31:52,900 Speculation because I didn't at that point. I mean, in May, I'm simply saying we don't we mustn't jump. 254 00:31:53,090 --> 00:31:57,669 We already started using the term focus protection U.S. 255 00:31:57,670 --> 00:32:00,910 I don't know. I don't know. I mean, I thought that was the right way forward. 256 00:32:01,870 --> 00:32:05,590 Okay, well, we can. Yeah, so let's just let's okay, let's talk about one sector focus. 257 00:32:05,650 --> 00:32:08,800 Yes. I mean, how how in your mind is that going to work? 258 00:32:09,430 --> 00:32:11,200 Okay. First of all, it was going to work. 259 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:20,919 A lot of a large part of it is simply a subset of what we instituted from lockdown, which is that vulnerable people stay at home. 260 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:22,120 But who are the vulnerable people? 261 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:30,330 That's what we we absolutely were very this is the point is absolute it was absolutely obvious to vulnerable people. 262 00:32:31,630 --> 00:32:35,560 They were people of a certain age group. I mean, you can see it was in the data. 263 00:32:36,550 --> 00:32:41,740 It was completely clear that the risk, the proportion, 264 00:32:41,740 --> 00:32:49,600 the risk was located very much in those of certain age and those with certain conditions, certain comorbidities. 265 00:32:51,310 --> 00:33:01,590 So I think that's you know, as with anything in life, obviously, one can't completely be sure. 266 00:33:01,610 --> 00:33:05,670 You can't you can't protect everybody. You can't simply can't. 267 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:13,360 I mean, that's public health or any kind of just living society requires the risk of death for people who are not quite so old, 268 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:23,380 so that the figures for people between 40 and 79, I think the risk of death in that group is much higher. 269 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:31,390 Only if you that it was, you know, just by age group was much higher than for flu, for instance, with COVID. 270 00:33:31,420 --> 00:33:41,140 But if you look at those cases that they were people, I mean, they knew the risk of death for people without comorbidities is very low. 271 00:33:42,460 --> 00:33:45,700 But lots of people have come. But it's it's the. 272 00:33:45,700 --> 00:33:49,080 No, yes. No, no, no. But yes, there's a there's but, you know. 273 00:33:49,100 --> 00:33:51,580 But then so how do you that so that then. Okay, 274 00:33:51,730 --> 00:33:59,650 so we've talked a little bit about how you people like co-morbidities but also also there was then there were people in certain employment categories. 275 00:34:00,010 --> 00:34:01,389 You seemed to. Exactly. 276 00:34:01,390 --> 00:34:12,250 And that's why I think lockdowns were so wrong that they were, to me a violation of the social contract, that they were highly non communitarian. 277 00:34:12,790 --> 00:34:16,569 Because what we did is we said, you're a health care worker, okay? 278 00:34:16,570 --> 00:34:20,440 You've got diabetes, you're a bus driver, you've got diabetes or you're obese. 279 00:34:21,060 --> 00:34:24,850 But, you know, you're an essential worker so you can go out and do your job. 280 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:30,160 Those people should have been provided with the means to self-isolate. 281 00:34:30,580 --> 00:34:33,520 They should not have been out there doing those jobs. 282 00:34:33,940 --> 00:34:44,440 But now those of us like myself, who, as far as I'm for a bit of asthma, comfortably sat in the houses, the laptop classes. 283 00:34:44,770 --> 00:34:51,940 We did what we could do. We had great times. I my daughters came out to, you know, spent six months with me when that happened. 284 00:34:52,870 --> 00:34:59,680 We all had lovely lockdowns and we allowed the working classes, those who had no choice, 285 00:35:00,100 --> 00:35:07,840 the front facing people who were at risk to go and do their jobs, that was unconscionable. 286 00:35:08,530 --> 00:35:21,900 That's what you should know. I think that and we allowed many, but we told young people who are practically I mean, 287 00:35:21,930 --> 00:35:31,930 except for those companies, of course, at low risk or very, very small risk of dying from COVID. 288 00:35:32,980 --> 00:35:37,360 We locked them on. So I think that we did. 289 00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:44,890 We did send people to their deaths by allowing people with obvious vulnerabilities 290 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:51,550 to go out and do the jobs that we needed because we needed to function. 291 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,879 So I do feel very strongly about what I feel that we did. 292 00:35:54,880 --> 00:36:01,180 We failed people with vulnerabilities because we said, it doesn't matter if you've got volunteers, you can still clean the hospital. 293 00:36:02,950 --> 00:36:09,399 And that's why then you see the sort of ethnic profile which has no basis in genetics or anything. 294 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:21,100 It's just because so many black people are poor and they clean up hospitals and drive our buses and deliver our food. 295 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,480 And some of these people should not have been sent to the hospital consultants. 296 00:36:26,590 --> 00:36:30,490 Yeah. Who are not poor. Yes. And they died. 297 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:37,080 I think if you look at the statistics of. Very. 298 00:36:37,090 --> 00:36:40,950 Yes. Well, obviously, there's some hospital consultants rooms available. 299 00:36:43,510 --> 00:36:48,490 You should not be me. Not everyone. But there are people who are. 300 00:36:48,940 --> 00:36:54,540 I suspect the hospital consultant who had a vulnerability had at all. 301 00:36:55,810 --> 00:36:59,320 I mean, I'm also black. I had. 302 00:37:00,940 --> 00:37:06,229 But I'm so privileged to live in a privileged community. 303 00:37:06,230 --> 00:37:09,460 But what if I had a vulnerability? 304 00:37:11,830 --> 00:37:17,140 And so I think privileged people, whether they had vulnerabilities or not, 305 00:37:18,370 --> 00:37:23,780 were able to carry on, you know, carry on with their lives and protect themselves. 306 00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:37,630 So largely, I think, you know, people with vulnerabilities, I think had would have been either state supported or supported by whatever mechanism. 307 00:37:37,930 --> 00:37:44,650 Obviously, furlough was bought in, but furlough protected people who were not at risk skilled jobs. 308 00:37:45,430 --> 00:37:49,030 So I think that our whole way, there is no way to protect it. 309 00:37:50,050 --> 00:37:59,590 And there will always be you know, it is you know, look at people are dying who shouldn't be doing it, you know, 310 00:37:59,980 --> 00:38:06,980 then the war in Ukraine, you know, this was an emergency to say that it wasn't an emergency and that some of us might. 311 00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:11,140 I mean, I could have died. I'm glad I was mum. 50 of 55. 312 00:38:12,370 --> 00:38:17,290 There was a risk, but that's a risk I feel as a member of society, 313 00:38:17,290 --> 00:38:26,200 as a university teacher I should take in order to deliver to my students and to the younger generation the experience they deserve, 314 00:38:26,980 --> 00:38:30,280 just like I take a risk with flu with many of the things. So. 315 00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,490 Some of us might've had bad outcomes. 316 00:38:37,240 --> 00:38:43,000 Uh, think that, um, those who were at any form of risk. 317 00:38:44,420 --> 00:38:49,520 I think it should have been it should have been not recommended, but enabled. 318 00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:57,339 In the way the furlough scheme did whatever that they should t teach remotely 319 00:38:57,340 --> 00:39:04,120 or just isolate themselves over that period of time when the risk was high. 320 00:39:04,570 --> 00:39:12,520 And, you know, I thought it was very likely that a vaccine would be available and so and so, so. 321 00:39:12,550 --> 00:39:24,760 So yeah, I think that just provides the very, you know, tangible and sensible way of providing folks protection. 322 00:39:25,570 --> 00:39:32,560 So I think we could have done a lot more to well, what we did is we we locked everyone down. 323 00:39:32,590 --> 00:39:40,750 So part of offering folks protection would simply be to do the same, but for a much smaller group. 324 00:39:40,810 --> 00:39:46,480 Yes. Yes. I suppose the difficulty with that. So you've got to do difficulty in my mind what is identifiable. 325 00:39:46,990 --> 00:39:49,930 Well, I don't think that's I mean, I do the other I mean, 326 00:39:49,930 --> 00:39:56,110 I'm not saying it's actually maintaining that barrier between the vulnerable population and everybody else. 327 00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:02,200 But when the disease is rapidly spreading in that population. 328 00:40:02,260 --> 00:40:07,240 Mm hmm. But what practical and how easy is that to do that? 329 00:40:07,270 --> 00:40:14,140 It's no different to what we did during not I mean, there was no tangible difference, actually. 330 00:40:14,860 --> 00:40:21,520 I mean, when you're locked down, if you're in your home and you get your groceries delivered properly, 331 00:40:22,030 --> 00:40:27,580 not by somebody or you do, I mean, the things we did was to say, 332 00:40:27,820 --> 00:40:32,680 okay, you phone will go to the shops wearing a mask, pick your vegetables, 333 00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:38,110 won't let go to a self-checkout where you touch a screen that everyone else has been touching. 334 00:40:38,950 --> 00:40:44,140 I mean, we really didn't do sort of how we did that. There were people who were advised to shield when they. 335 00:40:44,170 --> 00:40:48,410 Yes. I mean, but that should have been a broader and actually, you know, that's what I'm saying. 336 00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:51,700 You a job of making sure that they loved it. At least it doesn't. 337 00:40:52,240 --> 00:40:56,560 Well, that's what I mean. You know what you did was it in some sense. 338 00:40:56,830 --> 00:41:03,520 But, you know, just if you feel, you know, if there's a risk, I would out on the side of caution, definitely. 339 00:41:04,420 --> 00:41:08,470 And if it's possible to remove yourself without any assistance from the government, 340 00:41:09,820 --> 00:41:15,010 which many of us did have the opportunity to do, I think that was absolutely the right thing to do. 341 00:41:15,850 --> 00:41:17,230 But also in practice, 342 00:41:17,500 --> 00:41:25,150 what happened was that a number of hospitals found themselves under extreme pressure with the number of very sick people they were having to. 343 00:41:25,180 --> 00:41:28,270 Okay, let's get that. Let's first. But let's just look at the fixed protection. 344 00:41:28,330 --> 00:41:29,320 Oh, yes, sure. Yeah. 345 00:41:29,470 --> 00:41:37,270 First of all, you know, the idea that we should go down that route rather than lockdown is based very much on the cost of lockdown. 346 00:41:37,270 --> 00:41:43,510 Yes. Rather than whether fixed protection works. Right. It's what we were saying. 347 00:41:43,630 --> 00:41:49,720 I was thinking and many of us, this is that lockdown is just too costly. 348 00:41:50,410 --> 00:42:01,420 It has too much. We will be throwing the poor and the young under the bus completely, and that's not worth it. 349 00:42:02,260 --> 00:42:06,810 So focus protection is sort of the best we can do now. 350 00:42:07,390 --> 00:42:14,950 How do we do that? Is is was something we should have discussed rather than just this is my main point. 351 00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:19,930 Far be it from me to suggest that it was a double. I mean, I didn't think it was at all. 352 00:42:19,930 --> 00:42:24,280 I thought that much of it was already being enacted through the lockdown. 353 00:42:24,730 --> 00:42:27,940 It just meant that in a smaller proportion, people get lockdown. 354 00:42:28,540 --> 00:42:39,850 And then I did think there were things we can do, like, you know, multigenerational households to actually remove people, which is called evacuation. 355 00:42:40,090 --> 00:42:46,890 That happens in crises. You evacuate the vulnerable, put them in a nice hotel for three months or something. 356 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:55,870 You know, you've just got to the amount of money that we wasted or spent on it could have been put towards protecting the vulnerable. 357 00:42:57,970 --> 00:43:06,760 Or you. Yes, you do. You know, within households where there's a level of risk for the elderly, maybe you do find ways of homeschooling. 358 00:43:06,970 --> 00:43:15,790 I mean, you've got we've got to try after. I thought so so that but but I mean it would be absurd to say that was a perfect storm. 359 00:43:15,790 --> 00:43:23,440 You know, it's just lockdown. It's more that lockdown is going to hurt very, very badly. 360 00:43:23,740 --> 00:43:26,620 So what can we do instead? Lockdown is going to hurt. 361 00:43:26,620 --> 00:43:33,910 We also don't want the complete opposite, which is only able to do lockdown at all and we just let everyone get on with it. 362 00:43:34,090 --> 00:43:38,260 Yeah, some people don't. They do. That's just not acceptable. 363 00:43:38,260 --> 00:43:42,820 So, um. Yeah, but the point is, maybe this will work. 364 00:43:43,150 --> 00:43:46,960 What do we do? We were just raising. This is a problem. Yeah, it's not that. 365 00:43:48,190 --> 00:43:51,990 Maybe this is a solution. That's. But don't rush it a lot. 366 00:43:53,250 --> 00:44:02,819 Okay. So hospital care homes be I mean, the whole health care system being overwhelmed is, of course, a big issue. 367 00:44:02,820 --> 00:44:06,360 And again, that's where resources should go. 368 00:44:07,470 --> 00:44:15,830 First of all, it is. A result of the continuing continued underfunding of systems. 369 00:44:16,220 --> 00:44:21,049 So what it did. You know, what are we doing? It was saying we've underfunded these systems. 370 00:44:21,050 --> 00:44:26,120 We've streamlined them so they can't hurt at a time like this. 371 00:44:28,780 --> 00:44:35,620 I mean, part of the reason they couldn't cope is because, of course, we didn't institute focus protection on care homes. 372 00:44:37,380 --> 00:44:40,450 You know that that should introduce the point where you introduce the virus. 373 00:44:40,780 --> 00:44:48,280 What we should have done is spent that money into making care homes, you know, dividing them smaller units, 374 00:44:48,730 --> 00:44:59,350 putting in care work cameras in residence for a period of two weeks, should we say, paying them a lot of money to just be there. 375 00:44:59,650 --> 00:45:05,950 And then another set of carers when it comes and I'm sure there were ways that we could have tried it, maybe it wouldn't work, I don't know. 376 00:45:06,610 --> 00:45:11,410 But I think we should have done everything. We should throw money at that problem. 377 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:20,139 Not just just folks who food scams and just not thought about it in hospitals. 378 00:45:20,140 --> 00:45:23,140 We run hospitals. We have no resilience in the system. 379 00:45:24,230 --> 00:45:32,740 And so in that regard, I think maybe shutting everything down on the 23rd of March was not unreasonable. 380 00:45:34,130 --> 00:45:43,020 Mr. SCOTT Oh dear. We have a crisis and we have stupidly not invested enough in the NHS to deal with that problem. 381 00:45:43,030 --> 00:45:50,200 Let's at least lock in, lock everything down for two weeks, three weeks, whatever it is to get on top of it. 382 00:45:51,170 --> 00:45:56,650 You know, again, I don't think it would be reasonable for me to criticise that, 383 00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:07,810 although locking down for even two weeks in India has an enormous impact in terms of deaths from lockdown. 384 00:46:08,500 --> 00:46:12,250 So but in this country, yes, it made sense to do that. 385 00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:20,020 But then that didn't happen. We didn't invest in what we should have done, which had fever hospitals to people, you know, 386 00:46:20,020 --> 00:46:28,630 because there's a whole category of people who got very, very ill, who needed some oxygen, needed to be isolated from the vulnerable. 387 00:46:29,260 --> 00:46:34,000 And that just completely messed up the hospital system. 388 00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:38,590 And that's because we just that's what pandemic preparedness should be about, 389 00:46:39,490 --> 00:46:46,690 is let's keep maintaining a hospital system where if we suddenly have a pandemic, 390 00:46:47,050 --> 00:46:51,340 a new virus coming in, which will like this one, let's say, 391 00:46:52,780 --> 00:46:59,350 require hospitalisation of a certain segment of the population, they're not going to die, but they need our care. 392 00:46:59,770 --> 00:47:06,280 And if we put them in the hospital with all these other vulnerable people, they will post the wrong people in those will die. 393 00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:12,350 Then you need to set up field hospitals for those people who need that care. 394 00:47:13,030 --> 00:47:16,180 But we need to keep them apart from the vulnerable people. 395 00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:23,970 I don't understand why that was a bigger ask than, you know, what we ended up spending money on. 396 00:47:24,700 --> 00:47:32,230 So we spent money on trying to keep infection levels bright down, which I felt was. 397 00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:40,090 Unlikely to work. I don't think it did, but at the time we didn't know. 398 00:47:40,540 --> 00:47:52,450 But mostly I felt that the cost of trying to do that was going to be much higher than whatever else we did. 399 00:47:53,860 --> 00:47:57,850 So how did the Great Barrington Declaration come about? It's just so terrible. 400 00:47:58,060 --> 00:48:05,049 So I was initially, as I said, because I'm, you know, my ex, which is what I was trying to do, is just, you know, 401 00:48:05,050 --> 00:48:13,390 just ask people to question the fundamental scientific premise on which we were enacting some of these. 402 00:48:13,810 --> 00:48:21,760 So there was no evidence that these employees were working or anything except that we had these mathematical models saying, Oh, look. 403 00:48:22,150 --> 00:48:25,960 Fewer people have died than predicted and therefore it must be working. 404 00:48:27,010 --> 00:48:33,520 That's not really science. So I thought we needed a full discussion of that, and I thought that was the only role I could play. 405 00:48:33,940 --> 00:48:40,090 But as time wore on, I could see the effects of lockdowns mounting, particularly in the global south. 406 00:48:40,660 --> 00:48:47,800 And so because I'm from there, I'd like to think, even if I went from there and I'm sure that is true of many other people, 407 00:48:48,340 --> 00:48:53,290 that you don't have to be from the global south to the responsibility to the global south. 408 00:48:53,290 --> 00:48:56,949 I could see this was just causing enormous harm. 409 00:48:56,950 --> 00:49:03,009 I could see having said, you know, my daughters, you know, they were fortunate. 410 00:49:03,010 --> 00:49:09,969 One was finishing her degree, the other was starting to train contract law firm. 411 00:49:09,970 --> 00:49:13,420 And they came in for six months and it was great. 412 00:49:14,230 --> 00:49:18,360 And then they went back and it was a difficult year that followed. 413 00:49:19,330 --> 00:49:26,320 But I could see that if this had happened at a different time in their lives, I could see other children. 414 00:49:26,410 --> 00:49:34,360 I mean, and when you think of deprived children, it just to me, 415 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:42,280 it seemed that it was there was a strong humanitarian reason to not allow lockdowns to continue. 416 00:49:43,780 --> 00:49:53,919 Obviously, also, the plight of elderly people being isolated in the way that they were and the ways in which they died, 417 00:49:53,920 --> 00:50:02,380 which was also very difficult to to reconcile with the way that I felt society should be. 418 00:50:03,370 --> 00:50:06,639 So in the end, I decided that, no, I'm not going to just stick to the science. 419 00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:11,920 I'm going to say, look, we can all we've got to think about whether this is the right strategy. 420 00:50:14,930 --> 00:50:18,800 So I started to become vocal on that front. 421 00:50:20,510 --> 00:50:24,170 And it was an entirely lone voice where you you just you didn't have people on. 422 00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:31,610 But overall, I would say that there were very few people, very few willing people. 423 00:50:32,300 --> 00:50:37,640 A lot of colleagues. Thank you. You're absolutely right that very few willing to publicly say so. 424 00:50:38,210 --> 00:50:43,510 Very few. And I also was surprised that, you know, 425 00:50:43,910 --> 00:50:52,069 when I was first raising concerns that they were instantly interpreted as being anti-lockdown because I wasn't I wasn't anti anything. 426 00:50:52,070 --> 00:50:56,660 I was just saying, let's find the right solution to this problem. 427 00:50:57,080 --> 00:51:05,450 And lockdowns don't look to me like you're taking a hammer, as I've said before, to a pane of glass that a fly is sitting upon. 428 00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,590 So but can we discuss this point? 429 00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:17,540 But yes, there were a few voices sort of split that I became aware of who were also saying, 430 00:51:17,540 --> 00:51:22,790 this is difficult, we have to look at this and different where at least have a debate. 431 00:51:25,820 --> 00:51:35,900 And I was very pleased to see that some of them were because that unfortunately, there was another there were two types of resistance to lockdowns. 432 00:51:36,380 --> 00:51:44,240 There was the resistance from those of us who thought it would harm, particularly the poor, which is advantaged globally and the young. 433 00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:48,740 And then there was the I don't want to be locked down. 434 00:51:49,010 --> 00:51:57,110 I won't do what I want to do that sort of I guess you'd call it libertarian. 435 00:51:57,110 --> 00:52:03,620 But I think libertarians often use the individualistic, shall we say, kind of I don't want to be locked down. 436 00:52:03,950 --> 00:52:09,740 I don't want the government to tell me what to do. Well, I mean, I have no time for that, because I think that's why you have a government. 437 00:52:10,700 --> 00:52:14,330 That's why I'm in the societies. Because it's not the government. The government is us. 438 00:52:14,720 --> 00:52:18,320 It's us deciding. So I don't have I'm not. 439 00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:22,910 I'm actually I think you'd still call me very left wing. 440 00:52:22,910 --> 00:52:27,290 I mean, a more, you know, kind of in the Corbyn camp. 441 00:52:29,390 --> 00:52:36,520 So I think everything should be nationalised or the money should be put in special and education should be free. 442 00:52:36,530 --> 00:52:47,420 I mean, I'm just I completely I've been very dismayed by the growth of what I think is the neoliberal capitalist 443 00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:55,550 sort of approach to education and healthcare and everything that we've seen in the last 30 years. 444 00:52:57,110 --> 00:53:04,040 So I was coming at it from that point of view. And then, of course, you have all these people saying, you know, I don't want individual freedom. 445 00:53:04,310 --> 00:53:09,200 Now, obviously, personal liberty is an important part of the social contract, 446 00:53:09,710 --> 00:53:15,560 but I think that personal liberty has to be negotiated within, you know, what's good for society as a whole. 447 00:53:17,240 --> 00:53:26,540 So I have no problem with mandating vaccines, but I do have people mandating vaccines that don't do what they're supposed to be doing. 448 00:53:27,500 --> 00:53:39,739 So anyway, I'm just telling you that that's my position, is that I'm not I did not say I had a problem with I didn't want to be I didn't I did not. 449 00:53:39,740 --> 00:53:48,140 And I still don't align with people who believe that lockdowns are bad because they are an infringement of your personal liberty. 450 00:53:49,010 --> 00:53:59,989 I do care about personal liberty of that. Obviously, everyone wants a certain kind of liberty, liberty that gives you human dignity or whatever it is. 451 00:53:59,990 --> 00:54:05,090 But but at the societal level, I think no one's that's not important to me. 452 00:54:06,410 --> 00:54:10,490 It is important that people or people, you know, people don't die. 453 00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:20,550 So I was very pleased when Martin Kotov approached me because I just he's one of the signatories of that. 454 00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:25,760 He was a professor at Harvard, and he had just written a piece for the Jacobin, 455 00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:32,420 was a very leftwing magazine in which he'd made these points very clear. 456 00:54:33,170 --> 00:54:39,920 So I thought, okay, this is my try. You know, this these are people with whom I have, you know, an affinity. 457 00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:46,100 That's where I'm coming from. I'm not anti lockdown for any other reason. 458 00:54:46,100 --> 00:54:57,650 So. So he said he had organised a sort of press conference, a small conference and would I come. 459 00:54:58,460 --> 00:55:05,570 And he invited James Chariot, who's, who's at Stanford, an economist, health economist, 460 00:55:05,660 --> 00:55:12,580 medic who had been voicing similar concerns and had also conducted a seroprevalence study in Canada. 461 00:55:12,850 --> 00:55:17,540 Only two with the same idea, I think, of just saying, look, 462 00:55:17,540 --> 00:55:24,920 we need to think about these questions before we can go ahead with these ideas about locking people down. 463 00:55:26,390 --> 00:55:36,950 So so he invited me and I went along and the conference was in a very small kind of institutes that could be beyond which Martin had said to me, 464 00:55:36,950 --> 00:55:42,490 they are quite right wing. But, you know, there are you know, this and this was in October 2020. 465 00:55:42,500 --> 00:55:46,399 Yes, yes, yes. He said they're a bit right wing. 466 00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:51,200 But having said that, I'm extremely left wing. 467 00:55:51,200 --> 00:56:02,209 I don't have a problem. Also with talk, you know, it doesn't mean that I think of people who are right wingers as evil people. 468 00:56:02,210 --> 00:56:07,940 I think they have a different perspective on how best to run an economy. 469 00:56:08,610 --> 00:56:12,140 And I am completely respectful of their opinions. 470 00:56:13,780 --> 00:56:22,809 So I didn't have a problem with having a meeting in the small institute which was established in the thirties, 471 00:56:22,810 --> 00:56:26,230 which happened to have a sort of free market approach. 472 00:56:27,550 --> 00:56:32,350 So we went there and had a meeting and then we decided on the spur of the moment to 473 00:56:32,740 --> 00:56:38,140 write this all down and put it on the web just in case it was helpful to anybody. 474 00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:56,600 And then it attracted a lot of attention. So but for some reason, it was dismissed, vilified by those very powerful members of the. 475 00:57:00,930 --> 00:57:04,770 Academics, you know, of academia. 476 00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:15,029 And the institutions that are funding it. And I mean, some of it I mean, I've read some of those responses. 477 00:57:15,030 --> 00:57:20,700 Some of them were entirely academically respectful and said, yes, we understand everything you're saying, but we don't agree with you. 478 00:57:21,450 --> 00:57:27,689 But I guess because it became such a media thing, it was a new it. 479 00:57:27,690 --> 00:57:30,810 I mean, you use everybody's used to them there. 480 00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:34,200 No disagreement, just one where nobody went in not in the public sphere. 481 00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,710 It did become very personal. What was that like? 482 00:57:38,070 --> 00:57:47,190 It was terrible. So even the academic, apparently respectful academic said the Johnson memorandum made very strange. 483 00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:58,860 You know, the response was odd because first thing they said was there may be no immunity at all against this in October. 484 00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:07,950 And then they said the immunity may not be lifelong, which was very likely not to be, but that therefore herd immunity is impossible. 485 00:58:08,370 --> 00:58:15,510 That is a simple epidemiological mistake. That's what we have with other cranberries as well. 486 00:58:15,900 --> 00:58:21,900 You just get re-infected as you sing and then. But the level of immunity in the population remains the same. 487 00:58:22,500 --> 00:58:28,240 So it's dictated by your notes, not that the rate at which you get infected in a lot of them. 488 00:58:28,260 --> 00:58:34,739 Now on Twitch, we're just coming round to this. Oh, my God, this is epi one anyway. 489 00:58:34,740 --> 00:58:39,569 And then the very valid question. How do we institute for this? 490 00:58:39,570 --> 00:58:43,470 Protection is very valid and it should have been discussed. 491 00:58:44,130 --> 00:58:52,950 But like you say, it didn't. I mean, we had, you know, friends of mine on Twitter was saying, this is ridiculous. 492 00:58:52,950 --> 00:59:03,360 You can't it's somebody. One of them said, it's like putting your antiques in one room when you have a fire fanning the flames. 493 00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:08,190 It's not it's like putting your arms and hosing the rest of the house down. 494 00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:14,850 But, you know, all of this sort of flourished. And yeah, it was quite mystical, so hardly. 495 00:59:15,180 --> 00:59:19,090 But then, yes, what happened was this concert, it was a campaign. 496 00:59:19,110 --> 00:59:23,280 It was set up, we know now by Dominic Cummings and his cronies. 497 00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:27,390 So, you know, are these this is the the right. 498 00:59:28,230 --> 00:59:36,920 It's not accusing us. You know, stooge is being paid by the Koch brothers. 499 00:59:36,930 --> 00:59:43,080 I didn't even know the Koch brothers were. Apparently, the Koch brothers had given £20,000. 500 00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:52,400 This institute that we visited, the Koch brothers, have funded, you know, huge big institutes in Harvard. 501 00:59:52,410 --> 01:00:02,670 They gave Neil Ferguson a prize get I mean, if you think about it, Oxford, you know, we have the Blavatnik school, the scientists. 502 01:00:03,150 --> 01:00:09,150 We have the donations from all over the place. 503 01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:18,360 You know, Bill Gates funds a lot of funds. So I find that hypocritical. 504 01:00:18,690 --> 01:00:25,430 But also, I mean, of course, we have received absolutely no funding from any of these groups. 505 01:00:25,470 --> 01:00:30,840 What you don't need to be funded to write a one page declaration. 506 01:00:32,980 --> 01:00:43,000 It. It was very, very unfortunate that that was the route that people took because as you say, you know, say I think you're wrong. 507 01:00:43,750 --> 01:00:47,740 Of course, very may well be wrong. 508 01:00:48,490 --> 01:00:55,960 Somebody has to be wrong. That's the whole point. I you had, in fact, both at this time being asked to to advance. 509 01:00:57,540 --> 01:01:00,860 We had one meeting. This was before the grandparents? Yes. 510 01:01:01,410 --> 01:01:12,180 Carl Hannigan and I with the cabinets in which we were simply asked to name 12 years and asked a few questions afterwards. 511 01:01:13,410 --> 01:01:16,980 And then this was subsequently wildly misrepresented by Dominic Cummings. 512 01:01:17,220 --> 01:01:20,890 Yes. Because it's a committee report. 513 01:01:20,910 --> 01:01:28,050 Yes, sir. But I mean, what's Jeremy Farrar among those people? 514 01:01:28,950 --> 01:01:37,380 Well, their line was that if we hadn't spoken to the government, apparently they would have locked down straightaway and this would have saved lives. 515 01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:41,310 Now, the basic premise of transparency, the basic premise is incorrect. 516 01:01:42,450 --> 01:01:50,880 I mean, maybe there's evidence that there are places that did lockdown, didn't mean its death rates. 517 01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:58,510 But it's also incorrect. He said the government were influenced by us. 518 01:01:58,530 --> 01:02:03,480 They never were. I mean, I think they called us for whatever reason to just. 519 01:02:05,690 --> 01:02:13,190 Seems we to be canvassing on. Maybe somebody in the cabinet did say, look, we ought to maybe they had some giving. 520 01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:21,800 I don't know. I was simply called in, presented my opinion, which is now in the public domain so they know what we said. 521 01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:30,500 So this is another accusation that keeps being levelled against me, which is that apparently I said the pandemic is on its way out in May. 522 01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:36,500 I do think I still believe and particularly not believe that there was a very large wave. 523 01:02:36,530 --> 01:02:43,490 So the acute phase of the pandemic happened largely before March 2020, 524 01:02:44,900 --> 01:02:50,390 but I didn't think it was on its way out in the sense that I knew that would be went away. 525 01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:53,400 If I didn't think that, why would I have done it? I mean, 526 01:02:53,420 --> 01:03:03,320 I wouldn't have gone to stuck my neck out if I didn't think that was an issue and that we would have problems in the winter of 2020 and subsequently. 527 01:03:03,830 --> 01:03:07,670 So you just meant it was on its way out for the summer. It was on its way out for the summer. 528 01:03:07,670 --> 01:03:12,170 And also that a large I did think that a lot of it had already happened. 529 01:03:12,530 --> 01:03:16,510 And I still think that's the only way we can explain the patterns, 530 01:03:16,530 --> 01:03:23,150 given that we now know they're not driven by the in-person lockdowns because that experiment has been done. 531 01:03:24,530 --> 01:03:33,470 So but we didn't know at the time. So, you know, and this is the truth is that one or the other is somewhere in between. 532 01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:48,170 But, yes, it was the whole experience of being vilified in that way was quite astonishing. 533 01:03:49,340 --> 01:03:59,270 I mean, as you said, you may have been barking completely up the wrong tree, but it's your duty, your responsibility as a scientist and as a citizen. 534 01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:07,400 And I think to say I think this is not the right way. And that's what we were doing and we were doing it. 535 01:04:07,730 --> 01:04:15,020 We knew or we didn't I didn't expect this kind of backlash, but we knew we were not doing ourselves any favours. 536 01:04:15,860 --> 01:04:20,480 We weren't doing this to promote some sort to get into the news. 537 01:04:20,900 --> 01:04:24,200 I mean, now that it's been said, it's over. 538 01:04:24,200 --> 01:04:28,010 But I feel that my I have nothing further really to say. 539 01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:31,910 I'm turning down every single media opportunity. 540 01:04:32,870 --> 01:04:41,510 I mean, I'll do things like tonight. It's an event where we all go to a conference, do those. 541 01:04:42,560 --> 01:04:46,370 But I'm not appearing on the media because that's not my. 542 01:04:47,180 --> 01:05:01,129 So what I want. So what I do and I suppose one of the reasons for that, the kind of amplification of it all, is that that there was, 543 01:05:01,130 --> 01:05:08,190 as you mentioned earlier, there were political divisions on how to deal with me with the pandemic. 544 01:05:08,300 --> 01:05:14,010 They did come from perspectives, you know, you might call them libertarian or whatever. 545 01:05:14,930 --> 01:05:18,350 And I suppose some might have felt that you were giving them ammunition. 546 01:05:19,650 --> 01:05:28,620 Yes. But I mean, that's absolutely not, you know. 547 01:05:28,620 --> 01:05:35,479 No. But I mean, you can't the problem is, if you're giving someone ammunition, you know, 548 01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:44,120 it depends if you think this is the right way forward and that this will save the lives of people globally, 549 01:05:45,110 --> 01:05:50,089 then you have to do that even if someone might seize upon it and say, hey, I told you so. 550 01:05:50,090 --> 01:06:00,680 This is actually also the sensible thing to do. I mean, if it happens to be the people who also don't really like lockdown, which, 551 01:06:00,740 --> 01:06:07,820 you know, it seems most people didn't dislike lockdown within my community. 552 01:06:08,420 --> 01:06:19,250 But if people who dislike being locked down, we also got ammunition from the fact that lockdown was good for people. 553 01:06:22,190 --> 01:06:25,400 You know, that's not something we could prevent. 554 01:06:25,820 --> 01:06:33,950 But, you know, if I'd done this, if I'd had a good PR person on board, maybe we would have made that clearer. 555 01:06:36,980 --> 01:06:41,780 You know, I thought we had made it clear, but I didn't realise that there was this, you know, 556 01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:54,270 I didn't realise how polarised and toxic the debate was already that it would then, you know, separate into the sort of factionalism. 557 01:06:54,270 --> 01:07:04,940 Again, if I had known, maybe I would have been more careful or if I had, you know, that sort of thing. 558 01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:15,919 But, you know, as I said, we've never in Oxford at the moment there's no sort of sense that, you know, that that I mean, 559 01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:22,190 Oxford is at the moment following an extremely neoliberal strategy in terms of how 560 01:07:22,190 --> 01:07:29,960 it obtains funding and what the relationship is between academia and the market. 561 01:07:30,890 --> 01:07:43,190 So it seems to me that nothing I was doing was, in any case, terribly outside of the the ways in which the university operates anywhere. 562 01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:58,309 So I don't really I do think it's it's quite strange that just having had a meeting in 563 01:07:58,310 --> 01:08:04,280 which to sign this at a is a small think tank which doesn't even call itself libertarian. 564 01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:14,870 It is a very free market organisation. But then I didn't think that was a huge risk, I didn't think it was a problem. 565 01:08:14,870 --> 01:08:22,730 So subsequent to that, then we went and met with the Health Secretary for the time in the Trump administration. 566 01:08:24,500 --> 01:08:31,550 I didn't want to meet Trump himself because I do feel that's not something I was prepared to do. 567 01:08:31,970 --> 01:08:40,820 But, you know, I mean, not that we have had to talk, but I don't think that is a violation of any of our principles. 568 01:08:40,820 --> 01:08:46,460 You talk to an embassy? I didn't. I'm not a big fan of Boris Johnson. 569 01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:51,680 We have to speak to him. Yes, he was. The government's is the government. 570 01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:54,620 He speaks government. It doesn't matter. Yeah. 571 01:08:56,600 --> 01:09:03,560 And how I mean, how painful has it been personally do you hinted earlier that even friends on Twitter that that. 572 01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:09,170 Yeah I think a lot of a lot of friends have been very vicious. 573 01:09:11,550 --> 01:09:22,050 Uh, indeed. And, uh, you know, I think the university's tried its best to protect me, but also keep me at arm's length. 574 01:09:24,650 --> 01:09:30,280 It's not and it's clearly had repercussions from. 575 01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:35,460 Very clear. Um. 576 01:09:36,510 --> 01:09:46,630 And that's unfortunate. But, you know. I'm not what I anticipated at all, but there have been very clear repercussions. 577 01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:57,760 But and yes, the defamation, I think I think the university should take the defamation situation more seriously. 578 01:09:58,720 --> 01:10:09,520 All universities read the fact that people can get on Twitter and say, why are you using your platform to spread this new word disinformation? 579 01:10:11,650 --> 01:10:20,080 It is very unfortunate. So Dr. By the name of Rachel Clarke, one within my personal friends. 580 01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:30,520 I tweeted that on the very same day that Sara Gilbert de Pollard had said exactly the same thing, 581 01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:35,680 which is that vaccines do not produce provide durable immunity against infection. 582 01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:53,260 So there is definitely a particular desire to target me on this from the community and. 583 01:10:55,080 --> 01:10:59,940 And it's it's very problematic. I think the university should do more. 584 01:11:01,260 --> 01:11:04,620 To discourage this. 585 01:11:06,280 --> 01:11:16,330 And all the universities where, you know, people find it. Completely reasonable to get on Twitter or in the media. 586 01:11:18,200 --> 01:11:26,839 Or indeed in books like Jeremy Farrar is saying that, you know, apparently the decision not to lockdown in September made by Boris, 587 01:11:26,840 --> 01:11:35,060 which I don't think had anything to do with representations, cost 20,000 deaths. 588 01:11:36,290 --> 01:11:42,080 That's just completely. I mean, you know, where does that come from? 589 01:11:44,910 --> 01:11:49,110 And why is it okay for someone who is the director of the Wellcome Trust? 590 01:11:50,120 --> 01:12:01,209 To say something publicly. You know, he may think that and it would be very it would have been very productive for perhaps civil society, 591 01:12:01,210 --> 01:12:06,150 all the world countries to put on a debate where we discussed it. 592 01:12:08,270 --> 01:12:12,110 And it could have been the case. Nobody knows. 593 01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:19,670 You don't know that. So point being a scientist or a thinker or a policymaker, you just do the best you can. 594 01:12:20,540 --> 01:12:24,950 But you have to follow your conscience. You have to do what you think is right. 595 01:12:26,180 --> 01:12:36,010 And my conscience said. And my rational the rational possibly, which I think is connected to my conscience, 596 01:12:36,550 --> 01:12:43,210 said that lockdowns are going to kill a lot of people and I have to do everything in my power. 597 01:12:44,050 --> 01:12:56,520 Try to find alternative solution. And I thought when the vaccines came through and you know, again, of course, we've been labelled as anti-vaccine. 598 01:12:57,550 --> 01:13:01,900 I mean, the AstraZeneca vaccine was first tested using that. 599 01:13:02,590 --> 01:13:13,720 One of the first primary testing that occurred was in our lab with this methodology that Craig Thomson had developed. 600 01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:22,760 So, you know, obviously we make that, you know, I'm trying to make flu vaccine. 601 01:13:23,030 --> 01:13:31,819 It's it's I guess I haven't seen that accusation of Democrats that people are to because I don't think 602 01:13:31,820 --> 01:13:37,680 we should use this vaccines to vaccinate to try and do that and we should use the Indian smartphone. 603 01:13:38,060 --> 01:13:42,530 Or you know, when I say there's I that I do accept who's vulnerable. 604 01:13:42,530 --> 01:13:45,710 So you know everyone over 15, let's say. 605 01:13:46,860 --> 01:13:51,930 Plus those with obvious comorbidities. And what's the argument for not vaccinating people younger than that? 606 01:13:52,260 --> 01:14:03,420 Because there is no benefit to the individual or the community, because most people of that age very low risk of death. 607 01:14:07,690 --> 01:14:15,640 It doesn't stop you from passing and it stops for some period of time from being affected very shortly. 608 01:14:16,180 --> 01:14:20,590 Your daughter actually got two weeks off to do so. 609 01:14:20,860 --> 01:14:30,160 So it's not going to stop you from getting it focusing on. And does it reduce the severity of it? 610 01:14:31,270 --> 01:14:44,300 In that age group, it doesn't make any sense to. And um, at the time I would have said we didn't have any notion of the risk there. 611 01:14:44,450 --> 01:14:48,650 There is always a small risk associated with vaccination. 612 01:14:50,120 --> 01:14:53,310 And now we're starting to get a better sense of access. 613 01:14:57,260 --> 01:15:03,050 So it doesn't make any sense to me to. To subject people to that risk. 614 01:15:03,380 --> 01:15:08,480 And when they're no risk covered, I want them to have a tool that as long has it. 615 01:15:10,910 --> 01:15:16,790 I think term it is. You know, it's not surprising. 616 01:15:18,050 --> 01:15:21,620 Post-viral syndrome is well documented. 617 01:15:21,630 --> 01:15:31,790 And what I'd like, what I'd hope is that the observations of COVID would perhaps make people a bit more web. 618 01:15:32,870 --> 01:15:37,060 I think there's been a slight tendency to dismiss this, follow symptoms. 619 01:15:37,700 --> 01:15:45,709 And hopefully the fact that you I think because it all happened when you have an epidemic, 620 01:15:45,710 --> 01:15:52,270 these things which you don't normally see all in one go happen or one becomes visible. 621 01:15:52,940 --> 01:15:57,230 Normally you'd it's something that's regular rates. 622 01:16:00,260 --> 01:16:04,010 But, you know, that's what you saw with COVID and then, you know, for example, Zika. 623 01:16:05,420 --> 01:16:10,340 Because it suddenly had the susceptible population and it sweeps through. 624 01:16:10,340 --> 01:16:15,920 And then you get kids being born with microcephaly. The following year, it's going to probably be one or two cases. 625 01:16:16,550 --> 01:16:24,800 His mother was unfortunately not exposed previously, but you don't see that sort of concentration. 626 01:16:25,280 --> 01:16:33,620 And I think Long-covid is a is a post-war phenomenon which became highly visible because 627 01:16:33,620 --> 01:16:37,700 we were looking at the epidemic where a lot of people got infected in the same time. 628 01:16:41,120 --> 01:16:45,120 But, you know, that's all it is. It's real. 629 01:16:45,120 --> 01:16:54,530 That's that hopefully will make people who dismiss Post-viral complications a bit more cautious about doing so. 630 01:16:54,980 --> 01:17:03,470 But you don't think the fact that it's a quite high prevalence is an argument for vaccinating people in Article 50? 631 01:17:03,830 --> 01:17:07,880 I don't think it's there's enough sufficient evidence I haven't seen. 632 01:17:08,330 --> 01:17:15,340 I mean, there's been lots of studies. Look at it. And I don't think there's any reason to expect some. 633 01:17:16,720 --> 01:17:21,370 That's to take the vaccine to avoid longer. It's very, very unlikely. 634 01:17:22,700 --> 01:17:27,620 It's real. But unlike. So I don't think there's any reasons. 635 01:17:27,640 --> 01:17:33,820 And the vaccine doesn't really prevent you from getting symptomatic disease. 636 01:17:34,910 --> 01:17:42,290 So I mean, a lot of people I know and it's very well documented, you can get pretty bad. 637 01:17:42,290 --> 01:17:48,820 CURWOOD Off to cheap shots. So I'm not sure to what extent it. 638 01:17:50,380 --> 01:17:53,950 May prevent. Long COVID. 639 01:17:56,560 --> 01:18:02,410 I don't think it's I wouldn't vote me the risk benefit analysis dude. 640 01:18:02,680 --> 01:18:05,890 You know flu gives you the same thing you do. 641 01:18:07,380 --> 01:18:15,900 Investors don't take crucial things from the crucial so well that I think a similar accident could be different. 642 01:18:17,130 --> 01:18:27,060 They didn't stop them from getting infected. They might stop it from getting severe disease, which is, you know, it's under valued. 643 01:18:27,510 --> 01:18:37,420 But. You know, this is remarkable that you have the vaccine vaccine that you can give to vulnerable people and they think they don't need any more. 644 01:18:38,060 --> 01:18:50,080 Well, I mean, you know, so I, I think it's a little bit sad, but that aspect of the vaccine has been not been. 645 01:18:50,830 --> 01:18:58,660 Well, it's almost that's the problem with Rolling is trying to get something to do more than what it's actually capable of doing. 646 01:19:00,850 --> 01:19:13,390 So for example, I might say that mathematical models are very good at giving you conceptual basis frameworks and understanding pandemic spread. 647 01:19:13,400 --> 01:19:17,440 So how immunity works is even better. 648 01:19:18,310 --> 01:19:23,950 They can improve vaccine, but it's the terrible tools for predicting what's going to happen next. 649 01:19:24,910 --> 01:19:28,450 So if you push something beyond. And. 650 01:19:29,830 --> 01:19:37,960 Mr. then discredit the whole process itself. So I think obviously a looking obsessing about how much more lethal bullets. 651 01:19:38,800 --> 01:19:40,660 And that's very unfortunate. It's very. 652 01:19:42,320 --> 01:19:52,190 It's kind of heartbreaking because I think, you know, I see such, you know, um, and, but it's because it was pushed to do things. 653 01:19:52,190 --> 01:19:56,070 It can't do the good vaccination. I think it's been. 654 01:19:57,670 --> 01:20:08,770 Just wonderful to produce a vaccine, which I think, you know, still does protect against severe disease. 655 01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:14,770 That seems to be I mean, I do I don't think there's any doubt that there's still lots of code around. 656 01:20:14,770 --> 01:20:17,950 But then being very. Yeah, exactly. 657 01:20:17,950 --> 01:20:21,090 So. Right. 658 01:20:22,450 --> 01:20:27,880 You know, certainly my elderly mother encouraged her to get the vaccine straightaway. 659 01:20:28,160 --> 01:20:32,920 And, um, I was very relieved that she'd had it, so. 660 01:20:33,460 --> 01:20:36,550 I don't know. Have you had it yourself? I've had two shots. 661 01:20:36,550 --> 01:20:39,860 I didn't get it. I don't think that. That. 662 01:20:41,640 --> 01:20:46,180 I think the boost to Nixon's. I think two shots should be. 663 01:20:47,600 --> 01:20:51,820 Efficient. How often do you think that's it? 664 01:20:52,090 --> 01:21:01,360 I think if you look at the epidemiology of the other coronaviruses, one exposure, I mean, once you've been exposed, once or twice, you're. 665 01:21:03,320 --> 01:21:07,320 To protect. I mean, we don't talk criminals. No, that's because we have to. 666 01:21:08,750 --> 01:21:12,880 So I don't think you need more than one shot. 667 01:21:14,730 --> 01:21:20,370 To um, you need to because the first really doesn't do much. 668 01:21:21,180 --> 01:21:30,690 Second does check out your antibodies. But I mean overall I think personally, I mean, I'd already had it, I think and then I have to again this much. 669 01:21:31,970 --> 01:21:35,840 I mean, it's it's not I don't think it's really important. 670 01:21:36,920 --> 01:21:46,460 People were not. Obviously vulnerable to to have the vaccine of a natural infection, which will inevitably happen anyways. 671 01:21:47,990 --> 01:21:53,210 Well, actually, the data suggests it gives you more durable protection. 672 01:21:54,020 --> 01:21:59,990 Natural infection. But, you know, it's not. I think those of us who are over 50 should just. 673 01:22:00,890 --> 01:22:04,310 I think it's pretty reasonable for us to go get vaccinated. 674 01:22:04,550 --> 01:22:09,620 But people under 50 I think that was this was a critical. 675 01:22:13,290 --> 01:22:19,660 You know. It's. But again, I do know some of the motivation is that. 676 01:22:22,470 --> 01:22:29,630 Why are we doing it? First of all, as vaccines should be getting in the arms of vulnerable people and. 677 01:22:30,690 --> 01:22:36,000 The developing world. And, you know, if it doesn't give you. 678 01:22:37,220 --> 01:22:40,760 If you go and you can see three months protection against infection, what are you going to do? 679 01:22:40,770 --> 01:22:44,110 You can't keep vaccinating every three months. 680 01:22:44,810 --> 01:22:56,510 And what form? I mean, as you seen it, what if you either vaccinate the vulnerable or they get natural infection? 681 01:22:58,850 --> 01:23:03,530 You must remember the vulnerable category is dynamic. People die in the trenches. 682 01:23:03,950 --> 01:23:06,530 So two years ago, someone who is not vulnerable. 683 01:23:07,690 --> 01:23:15,640 If they've got COVID then and become immune now when they become or when they get older will be protected. 684 01:23:16,300 --> 01:23:21,190 So you have to sort of factor all of that into your thinking about what to do. 685 01:23:21,760 --> 01:23:26,260 But I would still say give that person oxygen. 686 01:23:27,670 --> 01:23:33,890 But again, it's all about focus. It's about taking the resources we have and trying to protect those who would suffer. 687 01:23:35,350 --> 01:23:40,420 And again. I might be wrong, but it deserves to be debated. 688 01:23:42,810 --> 01:23:50,790 Yes. The fundamental point is that why was why were we shut down and smeared and why still is it? 689 01:23:52,020 --> 01:24:02,500 Am I feeling the effects? Because I had this. So I mean, how how have those effects manifested themselves if they affected you? 690 01:24:02,530 --> 01:24:09,670 Well, I continue with feel I, I well, I mean when the head of the Wellcome Trust. 691 01:24:12,210 --> 01:24:21,050 Publicly declares that you are. Spreading disinformation, and you can imagine how reluctant people will be to involve you. 692 01:24:22,430 --> 01:24:28,750 I had a recent experience, which I'm. Very unhappy about. 693 01:24:29,950 --> 01:24:38,240 Which in which I was asked to give a keynote speech to a visiting contingent. 694 01:24:38,260 --> 01:24:45,130 I'm going to be vague about this accident. And. And the day. 695 01:24:46,220 --> 01:24:52,370 And I was, oh, this is so we were supposed to be showcasing vaccines of the vaccines to. 696 01:24:54,590 --> 01:25:00,470 Those visits are important visitors. And I was to give the keynote. 697 01:25:01,470 --> 01:25:04,880 And also to be in a power. And. 698 01:25:08,060 --> 01:25:15,770 To attend the dinner. The very next day I was told, Oh, sorry, there was a mix up. 699 01:25:15,770 --> 01:25:19,040 So someone's already been asked to give the keynote. 700 01:25:22,090 --> 01:25:26,360 And then so I said, All right. What about the panel? 701 01:25:26,870 --> 01:25:33,600 Oh, no. You're no longer needed on the panel like that. But the dinner invitations will follow. 702 01:25:33,780 --> 01:25:39,090 Now, as such, I'm now no longer inclined to go to the dinner, but the dinner invitations have not arrived. 703 01:25:41,660 --> 01:25:47,810 I am wondering whether to ignore this status of the university. 704 01:25:49,480 --> 01:25:53,260 Because I find it very problematic indeed. 705 01:25:54,520 --> 01:25:57,550 So but, you know, I don't want to make a fuss. 706 01:25:58,930 --> 01:26:04,200 I really don't. It's exhausting to read her. 707 01:26:06,730 --> 01:26:13,600 But yes, I think that affects the tangible. I mean, the idea of getting a grant from any of these places. 708 01:26:16,460 --> 01:26:20,840 It's difficult for any papers that we've tried to publish have been turned down immediately. 709 01:26:27,300 --> 01:26:30,350 Top German. Very flimsy. 710 01:26:31,770 --> 01:26:36,060 Very flimsy, saying that they would not be of general interest. 711 01:26:38,800 --> 01:26:42,400 Which is astonishing. So, yeah. Serious? 712 01:26:43,690 --> 01:26:49,060 Mm hmm. But, you know, I'm old enough to. 713 01:26:53,120 --> 01:27:00,590 Um. Have you picked up your flu work again? Well, yes, I have, because, of course, it's funded by industry. 714 01:27:02,680 --> 01:27:08,040 So the company, the investor who wants to license his work, set up a company, 715 01:27:08,290 --> 01:27:15,520 and they all have given us research grants and they've actually just extended and embellished it. 716 01:27:18,060 --> 01:27:24,690 So we are about to hire someone to carry that work out before. 717 01:27:24,690 --> 01:27:32,220 It is said to me that that work is ongoing and I intend I will carry on when we get funding from elsewhere. 718 01:27:33,440 --> 01:27:40,100 Of course, I'm going to carry on. And in the meantime, of course, I've made connections with a bunch of social scientists. 719 01:27:41,890 --> 01:27:46,530 Um, you know, I think with him, I think I can have a nuanced discussion. 720 01:27:46,540 --> 01:27:51,310 Yes. Because that's important to me. It's not about being right or wrong. 721 01:27:52,240 --> 01:28:04,930 But having nuanced discussions. And I overall do think that much of what happened is a consequence of the emergence of neoliberal capitalism as. 722 01:28:07,530 --> 01:28:10,530 The way that academia and. 723 01:28:11,860 --> 01:28:15,030 And. Other institutions operate. 724 01:28:16,290 --> 01:28:20,280 And I think it's. Quite deplorable. 725 01:28:21,900 --> 01:28:26,040 And do you think it's also to do with something like. 726 01:28:26,950 --> 01:28:32,200 Few regrets about is that for me, I blame social media. 727 01:28:32,770 --> 01:28:39,430 I feel that polarisation of almost every issue has just become the norm now. 728 01:28:39,940 --> 01:28:44,149 So it's very much if you don't with me, all that's media, which is the death of nuance, 729 01:28:44,150 --> 01:28:50,410 which is not just the death of violence, it's the death of all who make the death of any debate is any debate. 730 01:28:50,670 --> 01:28:54,700 Yeah, no, I totally agree. I think it's shocking. 731 01:28:55,390 --> 01:28:58,060 It's it's I did not anticipate that at all. 732 01:28:59,170 --> 01:29:06,960 You know, of course, there should be disagreements, and I can completely see why people would disagree with me. 733 01:29:07,180 --> 01:29:10,950 That's fine. That's completely normal. 734 01:29:12,680 --> 01:29:20,190 But, yes, this sort of we're not you know, we can't talk to each other now because you believe this. 735 01:29:21,600 --> 01:29:24,880 And you must be. Supporting Trump. 736 01:29:27,460 --> 01:29:37,150 That's Trump. I mean, it's so paediatric, but I think there's there's been an erosion of critical thinking. 737 01:29:38,610 --> 01:29:53,040 There's just been this. I think that's part of the whole, you know, reducing the individual to consumer rather than the thinker, the passive consumer. 738 01:29:54,190 --> 01:30:04,720 Has to find ways of expressing, you know, that's what they do. And then instead of critically gaining pleasure from critically assessing situation. 739 01:30:05,170 --> 01:30:10,530 What you do is you join a group, you say, okay, your or you feel embarrassed to be part of a. 740 01:30:12,370 --> 01:30:21,160 So it's very sad. So looking back, is there anything you would have done differently if you knew then what you know now? 741 01:30:22,310 --> 01:30:26,780 I do. I mean, given that the forces against us were so strong. 742 01:30:28,160 --> 01:30:33,970 So when you think about the people who. Decided that we should be silenced. 743 01:30:34,750 --> 01:30:40,080 And I've been very quiet about saying anything about them. Because I don't do that. 744 01:30:40,210 --> 01:30:45,630 But, you know, Jeremy Farrell, who's an old friend, very you know, it's very sad. 745 01:30:46,050 --> 01:30:53,730 Very sad for me, you know, why didn't for example, why didn't Jeremy pick up the phone to me and say, 746 01:30:53,730 --> 01:30:58,360 Schnetzer, I don't know where you're coming from. You know, I think you're wrong. 747 01:30:58,420 --> 01:31:02,560 I think this could be damaging. Let's sit down and talk about it. 748 01:31:03,860 --> 01:31:08,780 Why don't we meet for a coffee or whatever to confirm to a doctor? 749 01:31:09,140 --> 01:31:13,490 Why don't we talk about this? No. Instead, he goes on social media. 750 01:31:14,150 --> 01:31:26,950 He writes. He writes that. I actually found Chet games because I'm friends with Frank Collins. 751 01:31:26,950 --> 01:31:32,710 But they I mean the emails in that public, they said, we've got to take this down. 752 01:31:33,130 --> 01:31:39,250 Why take it down? Why not say, guys, we don't know where you're coming from? 753 01:31:40,680 --> 01:31:44,210 Let's have a public debate and dismiss us. 754 01:31:44,550 --> 01:31:49,240 Dismiss the. If you like. But through public debate. 755 01:31:51,640 --> 01:31:55,360 So. Yeah. 756 01:31:55,360 --> 01:31:58,600 I do find it. Certainly. What would I have done? 757 01:31:59,050 --> 01:32:10,300 So could we have done it in a different way? I don't think so, because I think that there was so much pressure, there was this consensus. 758 01:32:10,810 --> 01:32:14,950 It's something that's, I think, becoming characteristic of academia. 759 01:32:15,070 --> 01:32:18,180 You have to confront it. 760 01:32:18,190 --> 01:32:22,749 It's not okay. So it was as if they were colleagues, etc. completely agree with you. 761 01:32:22,750 --> 01:32:27,550 But we had taken the decision not. Painful reversals in. 762 01:32:28,890 --> 01:32:33,560 It's going to become toxic. That was not an option that I had. 763 01:32:36,330 --> 01:32:46,370 I've just stayed silent. But yeah, I mean, I'm sure maybe we should have signed the Great Barrington Declaration and, you know, 764 01:32:47,640 --> 01:32:54,300 the Kentucky Fried Chicken Declaration or something, you know, something that made it maybe the the optics of that weren't. 765 01:32:57,390 --> 01:33:00,490 One. You know, if I thought about it. 766 01:33:00,850 --> 01:33:08,620 But as I said, the context being a university where they have a blavatnik school of government does make you. 767 01:33:10,890 --> 01:33:19,510 You know? You know, it just it doesn't make you think, oh, if I go to a small right wing institute and sign a declaration, it's going to become. 768 01:33:20,750 --> 01:33:27,210 Seen as some sort of conspiracy. And with the oligarchs of this world. 769 01:33:30,630 --> 01:33:31,650 I wouldn't even. Yeah, but. 770 01:33:31,650 --> 01:33:41,670 But, but if somebody had said, look, what's the best way to do it, I, I think maybe I would have said, let's make that, let's sign it somewhere else. 771 01:33:43,870 --> 01:33:50,930 And have maybe a broader group of people to sign it. 772 01:33:52,970 --> 01:33:58,730 You know, I don't know. Just because there were a bunch of people who signed up for. 773 01:34:00,070 --> 01:34:08,700 And there are others who have some misgivings who probably wouldn't you know, we didn't have time. 774 01:34:08,710 --> 01:34:12,250 It was stealth. But, you know, we were in an emergency situation. 775 01:34:12,850 --> 01:34:17,260 So we did what we could do under those circumstances. 776 01:34:18,500 --> 01:34:24,240 Um, obviously we didn't get everything right in terms of that. 777 01:34:25,270 --> 01:34:31,179 Have that debate, but. And everyone has their own way of doing things. 778 01:34:31,180 --> 01:34:36,340 But I don't think I don't think I had much of a choice in terms of what. 779 01:34:40,470 --> 01:34:50,879 What I could have done. But, you know, having said that, I'm sure there were many best ways to try to bring this attention. 780 01:34:50,880 --> 01:34:58,320 And the truth of it now is that while I think in many respects we were right, that we failed, 781 01:34:59,040 --> 01:35:05,370 and that's we have to we failed to convince people that lockdowns would cause this level of harm, 782 01:35:05,700 --> 01:35:14,850 shutting schools for this length of time because this. To admit that the economy collapsing means young people. 783 01:35:15,510 --> 01:35:20,790 You know, when you think young people are going to pay for this. When you see it with the NHS. 784 01:35:21,390 --> 01:35:24,150 Yes. Four years you want to fund the NHS. 785 01:35:24,480 --> 01:35:31,590 Then you come to this point, a critical point where now, in order to deal with it, we have to take these drastic measures. 786 01:35:31,890 --> 01:35:40,170 What are we doing? We're transferring all of that onto the shoulders of the youth, the younger generation and all of that. 787 01:35:40,180 --> 01:35:47,970 I still find really problematic and I feel very sad that that wasn't printed. 788 01:35:49,350 --> 01:35:53,030 I mean, but we can start debate around. 789 01:35:54,120 --> 01:36:00,689 So I think at some level I think you could say some things we've said anyway. 790 01:36:00,690 --> 01:36:07,600 We've been vindicated. But there's very little comfort when you think of the home 20. 791 01:36:10,850 --> 01:36:15,440 So what are you optimistic about? What what do you look forward to? 792 01:36:16,590 --> 01:36:24,270 Well, I mean. Well, I am an optimist. 793 01:36:24,590 --> 01:36:31,890 I mean, I obviously I live in hope that now we will emerge from this and learn the lessons. 794 01:36:34,200 --> 01:36:37,350 I would like to try and. 795 01:36:40,140 --> 01:36:45,960 Push. I don't know. There's got to be some there is some process coming in at Katrina, and it's been coming for a long time. 796 01:36:47,250 --> 01:36:53,210 But I think this sort of typify I mean, it exemplifies some of the problems that. 797 01:36:54,670 --> 01:36:59,380 Like to work a little bit towards creating a better environment. 798 01:37:00,910 --> 01:37:06,729 People. I mean, there's so much emphasis on equality and diversity and all that. 799 01:37:06,730 --> 01:37:17,530 But what I saw of the pandemic was that and it's interesting as a set of social science conference where people talk about object and subject. 800 01:37:17,950 --> 01:37:24,130 If you are the be A or B object, then it's fine. 801 01:37:25,240 --> 01:37:32,040 But if you become raise yourself in a position to become a subject subject, then you are completely disregarded. 802 01:37:32,050 --> 01:37:43,840 And I think I do feel for the first time in my life that there was a discrepancy between how I was treated and how other people of the same, 803 01:37:43,840 --> 01:37:56,620 you know, with the same level of qualifications and expertise to say how they were treated and mean from the same perspective. 804 01:37:56,620 --> 01:38:01,630 You had the same perspective to you, the right thing to do? No, not just just generally. 805 01:38:01,870 --> 01:38:06,810 But there was, you know, like right at the outset, I was not consulted at any point. 806 01:38:06,820 --> 01:38:11,380 There was no point at which someone for. Oh, maybe we shouldn't have chose. 807 01:38:15,230 --> 01:38:21,320 Yes, I do for other people in zoology because I know there was a big meeting initially, but it only involved people in medical science. 808 01:38:23,270 --> 01:38:32,340 Um. No, I mean, the, you know, the. 809 01:38:33,040 --> 01:38:38,510 The. There were people in SWAT team there, two heads. 810 01:38:39,460 --> 01:38:44,010 I mean, one was incredibly supportive, but the other was very much. 811 01:38:44,010 --> 01:38:48,550 Yes. But I mean, there was no consultation. 812 01:38:48,670 --> 01:38:53,740 I mean, there were all of these groups that met to discuss what would happen with the pandemic. 813 01:38:55,460 --> 01:39:01,490 The only person who invited me to contribute to any kind of discussion was, of course, his name. 814 01:39:01,820 --> 01:39:09,670 It just happened. Communications problems are some public so some of the administrators. 815 01:39:10,930 --> 01:39:14,500 But overall it was okay, where do I think it was? 816 01:39:14,980 --> 01:39:20,200 I feel that was some sort of discrimination. One was one is that I was just simply not consulted. 817 01:39:20,200 --> 01:39:30,870 So it actually. I mean, in this university, there aren't many people who work on exactly the street. 818 01:39:31,470 --> 01:39:42,900 So I think it's strange. Secondly, I think that the ways in which I was dismissed by people, I wonder if they would do that to a white male colleague. 819 01:39:44,110 --> 01:39:49,120 And I've never in my entire career I've never felt that. 820 01:39:49,660 --> 01:39:54,130 But I just wondered whether people would be quite so dismissive. 821 01:39:56,660 --> 01:40:07,250 Because, you know, you can do you can just see that, you know, here are people who have less the history and so they don't have the same expertise. 822 01:40:07,580 --> 01:40:12,860 But you're privileging them and saying, I'm going to go with their opinion of yours rather than. 823 01:40:15,160 --> 01:40:21,070 Let's let me here. And, you know, there are a lot of people who decided they knew it was right. 824 01:40:24,310 --> 01:40:29,680 Which is interesting. I mean, you know, I'm not saying that you should always just say, well, you're the expert. 825 01:40:29,680 --> 01:40:36,710 You. To completely dismiss me as many of these people did wrote it. 826 01:40:36,850 --> 01:40:45,450 Yes. I'm not saying that didn't happen to other people. For what? You want to call around female. 827 01:40:45,460 --> 01:40:50,070 But I think there are certain instances. 828 01:40:50,080 --> 01:40:54,460 We just thought the first time would you really do to me? 829 01:40:57,230 --> 01:41:06,530 I've had you considered taking this up with me. There's a citizen I like to make fun of, but it's something I felt. 830 01:41:07,160 --> 01:41:13,870 And maybe I'm wrong, but I've never felt that. But I think my question is, what do you feel optimistic about? 831 01:41:14,700 --> 01:41:17,830 I didn't. And so I do. 832 01:41:18,580 --> 01:41:26,160 I mean, I feel. I don't feel I mean, I hope the cynics, the. 833 01:41:27,670 --> 01:41:34,100 Generations. I think that right now our job is to try and make sure that the. 834 01:41:35,420 --> 01:41:38,860 Next gen is. Good luck. 835 01:41:40,090 --> 01:41:48,740 So that's how I see it. So I'm hoping that. What they've seen will give them the courage to. 836 01:41:50,560 --> 01:42:02,410 Think about all of these things that way. And I'm I'm encouraged by actually I'm encouraged by the moral fibre that I see in my my own daughters. 837 01:42:04,310 --> 01:42:16,670 One of whom is an immigration boy who gave up a commercial opportunity, a very high paying job to be in immigration or work in that area. 838 01:42:19,820 --> 01:42:23,959 And the ongoing search to a Ph.D. in science. 839 01:42:23,960 --> 01:42:32,150 But you know that they're just very, very committed to. A communitarian way of life. 840 01:42:32,360 --> 01:42:36,090 And so that gives them and their friends off as well. 841 01:42:36,110 --> 01:42:42,200 So, um. So. That that that's really my main source of optimism. 842 01:42:42,530 --> 01:42:50,569 And with regard to my own self, I will be carrying on with the work I'm doing and I know that I will have to get funding from different sources. 843 01:42:50,570 --> 01:42:56,570 But, you know, I consider myself very fortunate to have been in a position to recruit. 844 01:42:57,960 --> 01:43:02,550 Make my position clear. And now with a clear conscience can. 845 01:43:03,730 --> 01:43:09,760 Live the rest of my life. Even though with much sadness. 846 01:43:11,120 --> 01:43:15,680 Lockdowns have caused so much. Thank you very much.