1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:05,130 Okay. Right. So can you just felt like having your name and your position? 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:13,710 So I'm Irish, so I guess I'm a professor of evolution and genomics in the Department of Zoology, and I'm also a tutorial fellow. 3 00:00:14,010 --> 00:00:17,070 So. Hilda's college. That's great. Thank you. 4 00:00:17,490 --> 00:00:19,920 So, first of all, tell me a little about yourself. 5 00:00:20,700 --> 00:00:31,980 Starting from your earliest interest in in world science generally and roughly how your career has developed from that point to where you are now. 6 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:40,710 Yeah. So I've been working on virus evolution for over 20 years now, 7 00:00:40,830 --> 00:00:51,600 and I started working in this area for my Ph.D. at Central College, um, also where I did my undergraduate degree. 8 00:00:53,280 --> 00:01:03,930 And so I did, I did my Ph.D. in this area. And then I moved to the Department of Zoology in Oxford in around 2004 to start my first postdoc. 9 00:01:04,590 --> 00:01:14,969 Um, again on virus evolution, a thing that I've been working on throughout my research career and have been here ever since, 10 00:01:14,970 --> 00:01:19,560 eventually as a full professor and also as a college tutor. 11 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,250 And it's a it's an area that I've worked on. 12 00:01:23,250 --> 00:01:27,629 I'm particularly interested in the evolutionary biology of viruses and their 13 00:01:27,630 --> 00:01:31,860 interactions with our hosts and how that's played out over various time scales. 14 00:01:31,860 --> 00:01:36,930 So from millennia down to down to a months and years and days, 15 00:01:37,260 --> 00:01:42,540 across across all the different time scales and seeing how how these two types of entity interact. 16 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,720 Mm hmm. So let's start with a really basic question. 17 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:53,730 What is a virus? Um, so, uh, well, difficult question. 18 00:01:54,720 --> 00:02:00,870 Um, so Peter Medawar famously quipped that it's a piece of bad news wrapped in a protein coat. 19 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:07,980 Um, they are basically a non cellular replicating entity. 20 00:02:08,700 --> 00:02:13,880 Um. Much debate over whether they're alive or not. 21 00:02:14,370 --> 00:02:20,370 I'm, I'm on the side of yes or it's not that relevant to the question given that they, 22 00:02:20,370 --> 00:02:24,900 they, they, they have all the properties of a living organism in many senses of the word, 23 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:33,329 um, that all around us we know about them most when they make us sick, but they don't always make the sick. 24 00:02:33,330 --> 00:02:40,080 There's lots of viruses around in the environments in our bodies, many of which are relatively unnoticeable. 25 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,759 Um, there are even viruses that are parts of our life. 26 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:53,190 For example, our genomes contain domesticated material from ancient viruses that contributes to our, um, biology. 27 00:02:53,460 --> 00:03:04,770 So oh, okay. I get that. So very occasionally viruses will infect a cell from the reproductive tissue of its host, a germline cell, as we call it. 28 00:03:05,250 --> 00:03:13,110 And if that happens, they can be passed down the generations, um, potentially for very, very long periods of time. 29 00:03:13,770 --> 00:03:17,970 Um, and if they're not harmful, they'll just stay there. 30 00:03:18,510 --> 00:03:27,600 Um, or they can just stay there forever. And occasionally, if they do actually contribute to a benefit, natural selection may act to preserve them. 31 00:03:27,930 --> 00:03:34,110 So one of the most famous examples is a gene called Sound System, which is involved in reproduction. 32 00:03:34,110 --> 00:03:42,120 It's involved in protecting the foetus from the maternal immune response, and that's derived from an ancient viral envelope gene. 33 00:03:42,450 --> 00:03:50,309 And I'm taking on that role. Um, so these endogenous viruses, these integrated viruses are a big part of my research. 34 00:03:50,310 --> 00:03:53,340 Mm hmm. Mm hmm. So if I. 35 00:03:53,340 --> 00:03:55,380 Should I jump off this one? I usually do this one first. 36 00:03:55,890 --> 00:04:01,200 If you had to define a single big question, that's the thing that gets you up to bed in the morning. 37 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:08,350 What would it be? What has. 38 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:16,210 One question what has been the the role of viruses in the evolution of their hosts? 39 00:04:18,280 --> 00:04:26,440 That's probably the most interesting one. I'm guessing that the viruses have actually driven the way of the species, including ourselves. 40 00:04:27,010 --> 00:04:31,030 Oh, comfortable? Yes. Yes, they have to. 41 00:04:31,150 --> 00:04:37,240 We don't know the extent of and understanding the extent to which they have done that is what interests me. 42 00:04:37,300 --> 00:04:42,400 No. Yeah. So what methods do you use to explore that question? 43 00:04:42,790 --> 00:04:54,400 Related questions. So most of my research until about a few months ago has been primarily computational. 44 00:04:55,240 --> 00:05:03,580 So I because of this process of integration, um, if you read the genome of an animal, 45 00:05:04,390 --> 00:05:09,910 you will find inside it's hundreds of thousands of tiny little fragments of viruses. 46 00:05:10,570 --> 00:05:16,210 And so by reading the genome of an animal like our own genomes or mouse or any other one, 47 00:05:16,630 --> 00:05:23,410 you can find this all these little pieces of DNA and try and piece together the history of 48 00:05:23,410 --> 00:05:30,550 how they go over and the pattern of interactions with their hosts at the genetic level. 49 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:36,940 You recognise that a piece of DNA is virus derived. So they they. 50 00:05:37,420 --> 00:05:46,000 So if you, if you know what's, um, if you translate DNA into a protein, 51 00:05:47,230 --> 00:05:56,350 you can look for parts of DNA that look like they would encode proteins that resemble contemporary circulating viruses. 52 00:05:59,740 --> 00:06:09,250 So of course, over time there is degradation and you have to account for that and look for things that still resemble 53 00:06:09,250 --> 00:06:13,870 viruses enough given the amount of time that they have degraded and have been in our genomes. 54 00:06:14,660 --> 00:06:21,250 Um. So that would be the way. So. 55 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:33,400 What is it about viruses that interests you? Particularly, um, aside from that public health concern. 56 00:06:34,990 --> 00:06:41,110 So, so there's a couple of reasons why that they're fascinating to an evolutionary biologist. 57 00:06:41,140 --> 00:06:48,280 One is, um, the speed at which they evolve when we interact with them in the present day. 58 00:06:48,850 --> 00:06:57,250 Um, and that's very useful to an evolutionary biology researcher because you can, 59 00:06:57,430 --> 00:07:01,120 when you, when you're interrogating a contemporary virus, you can actually see it evolve. 60 00:07:01,730 --> 00:07:09,640 Um, so, for example, in addition to the endogenous viruses before COVID came along, I was also working on, on HIV. 61 00:07:10,090 --> 00:07:14,800 Um, on the one side, you have the obvious public health reasons for that. 62 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:24,610 Um, on the other, you can see the virus picking up resistance mutations to the, to the drugs that we use to combat it. 63 00:07:25,030 --> 00:07:29,020 So the immune systems that, that interacts with, it's, um, 64 00:07:29,050 --> 00:07:33,970 and you can even see these viruses evolve within the time cause of the infection of a single patient. 65 00:07:34,390 --> 00:07:39,430 So it's a very powerful source of data to ask fundamental questions about evolutionary biology. 66 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:47,670 Um, I'm on the other hand, from a more, in a more general way, this, um, 67 00:07:48,070 --> 00:07:58,480 almost invisible entity that is pervasive throughout life and I believe has shaped the evolution of life in a way that's quite hard to, to get out. 68 00:07:58,730 --> 00:08:05,140 So the challenge of, of unravelling that and understanding that influence is one that intrigues me. 69 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,220 Mm hmm. Um, so it's, as you say, they change very rapidly. 70 00:08:09,700 --> 00:08:17,800 But in order to go on working as viruses, if you like, they also need to have some kind of stability frequently over long periods. 71 00:08:18,550 --> 00:08:23,500 Yeah. So, um, they have a tremendous capacity to mutate. 72 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:29,590 Um, but, um, evolution picks the mutations that work. 73 00:08:30,190 --> 00:08:40,510 Um, and so there is a disconnect between what mutations happen and what mutations stick around in the long term. 74 00:08:41,030 --> 00:08:47,950 Uh, because a lot of the change that happens in a virus actually breaks the virus, makes it makes it less able to do its job. 75 00:08:48,410 --> 00:08:56,140 Um, and that's that natural selection on, on that variation slows down the long term change of the virus. 76 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:03,339 Um, I'm actually one of the research questions that I've been most fascinated with over the last 77 00:09:03,340 --> 00:09:11,250 few years is a product of this is the so-called time dependency of evolutionary rates. 78 00:09:11,260 --> 00:09:13,750 It's a kind of viral version of relativity. 79 00:09:14,450 --> 00:09:22,090 Um, so depending on the timescale that you look at the virus, the apparent rate of evolution is very, very different. 80 00:09:22,100 --> 00:09:26,799 So if you examine shallow timescales, you see these very, very rapid rates of evolution. 81 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:37,300 But if you look over the, the longer term time scales, um, the apparent rates of evolution drop almost to the level of, of the of that host. 82 00:09:37,300 --> 00:09:41,080 Not quite. It's a little bit higher than mass, but, but it drops by several orders of magnitude. 83 00:09:41,890 --> 00:09:46,690 And understanding this this disconnect in rates is a theoretical problem I've been working on. 84 00:09:46,770 --> 00:09:53,500 Mm hmm. Um, so you can recognise virus that's being extracted from very, very ancient sources? 85 00:09:54,640 --> 00:10:06,880 You can, yes. So very. If you interrogate the genome, you can find viruses that are, say, 30, 40 or 50 million years old. 86 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:11,710 Um, and by rights, they shouldn't be recognisable. 87 00:10:12,010 --> 00:10:18,490 If you consider the short term rates of evolution, they should have changed so much that you wouldn't be able to recognise them. 88 00:10:18,970 --> 00:10:26,870 Um, but as a result of two processes, one is this discrepancy between long term and short term rates, but also, um, 89 00:10:27,610 --> 00:10:35,710 when they get into the genome, they stop evolving at their own rates, then they evolve at the rates that their hosts evolve. 90 00:10:35,860 --> 00:10:41,649 So they essentially freeze in time and that's that preserves them. 91 00:10:41,650 --> 00:10:47,710 So they they are essentially genomic fossils of viruses that were around a really long time ago. 92 00:10:47,950 --> 00:10:51,310 Mm hmm. I'll just put one word here. 93 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:56,170 Bats? Yeah. So, bats for something you were looking at before we came along. 94 00:10:56,950 --> 00:11:03,430 What? What what's special about bats? So bats are a, um. 95 00:11:03,820 --> 00:11:12,320 They they're a reservoir species for medical important viruses, so, you know, 96 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:20,290 rabies, Ebola, all sorts of viruses that that trouble us seem to go through bats. 97 00:11:21,650 --> 00:11:25,280 So I was one was also one that when that came along, bats were the first culprits of all that will, 98 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:32,090 in the end is severe cuts that were eventually identified as being the zoonotic reservoir. 99 00:11:33,620 --> 00:11:44,449 So they seem to be able to carry viruses without consequences for themselves and sealed viral transmissions into other species. 100 00:11:44,450 --> 00:11:49,850 So that's another major current research question of why do viruses transmit between species? 101 00:11:52,010 --> 00:12:04,070 And so we've been very interested in the intersection between these two questions, because viruses are occasionally domesticated by their hosts. 102 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:10,810 One of the ways in which they're domesticated is by contributing to the immune system of the hosts. 103 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:19,760 So. So the hosts essentially borrow bits of the viral genome and repurpose them and use them as a as a counter mechanism. 104 00:12:21,140 --> 00:12:30,350 And I'm very interested to determine whether one of the reasons why bats are really good reservoir 105 00:12:30,350 --> 00:12:37,549 species is through this co-option of viral sequences as parts of their own defence mechanism. 106 00:12:37,550 --> 00:12:43,280 And there's also some very interesting viruses in bat genomes, including Filoviruses. 107 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:48,050 So this is the, the lineage of viruses that includes Zaire, Ebola virus and Marburg. 108 00:12:48,980 --> 00:12:56,210 And we've shown almost a decade ago the bat genomes have got quite a few viruses like this. 109 00:12:57,230 --> 00:13:00,950 So viruses like these Ebola viruses or retroviruses, which are more common, 110 00:13:00,950 --> 00:13:08,750 what we're interested in determining whether they're they have such a role, and I'm close to answering that question. 111 00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:21,199 So on a on a computational level, we've identified a few integrations that appear to bear the characteristic hallmarks of selection that these kinds 112 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:31,220 of conflicts would engender in terms of actually really determining what properly we need to do some lab work. 113 00:13:31,490 --> 00:13:37,040 And this is a major part of my current research and my research going forwards over the next few years. 114 00:13:38,690 --> 00:13:45,470 Yeah. Okay. So let's, let's turn towards COVID pandemic itself. 115 00:13:45,970 --> 00:13:51,200 Can you remember how you first became aware that it was around? 116 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,559 Was it just appearing in the media like like most people that something's going 117 00:13:54,560 --> 00:13:58,970 on in China or were that kind of internal channels that you were involved with? 118 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:09,500 So, okay. So my first sort of interest sort of in this came about. 119 00:14:10,670 --> 00:14:21,260 So in January 2020, I was writing only I see grants which I have subsequently been awarded and I'm currently doing. 120 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,759 And Vikram have two questions. 121 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:33,739 One is this the role of viruses in evolution. The other one is the reconstructing the transmission dynamics of a virus over time. 122 00:14:33,740 --> 00:14:38,150 And as I was writing it and thinking of examples of interesting transmissions, 123 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:46,759 I saw news reports of an interesting looking virus that seemed to be emerging in Wuhan. 124 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,249 And actually there's a couple of sentences in my ground. 125 00:14:49,250 --> 00:15:01,040 So one thing that might be interesting is seeing what these coronavirus or viral transmissions would do and whether they might be important. 126 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:12,169 And so it was given as an example. Obviously, I didn't know at the time that quite how impactful it would end up being, 127 00:15:12,170 --> 00:15:16,220 but but it did seem like a quite worrisome and interesting transmission. 128 00:15:17,420 --> 00:15:27,980 I kept an eye on that. Um, beyond that, academically, I didn't turn much further attention to it at the time in January. 129 00:15:28,580 --> 00:15:36,320 Um, it did impact my, my, my, my life more generally. 130 00:15:38,150 --> 00:15:48,260 So the first real sort of impact on me as a, as an individual, I think probably comes from my, my, my trade union activities at the time. 131 00:15:49,760 --> 00:16:04,640 So in, in March, just before the, in early March, um, we were on, on strike, um, in the University of Oxford and in the UK more generally. 132 00:16:05,030 --> 00:16:14,450 I was coordinating the strike in Oxford as president of the of the Oxford branch of UK and. 133 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:24,940 The last day of the strikes would have been a massive rally in Oxford with speakers, an emotional sort of thing. 134 00:16:25,510 --> 00:16:30,339 But it was in sort of early to mid March and when we were starting to sort of see what 135 00:16:30,340 --> 00:16:38,379 was going on and actually in response to emerging information about the coronavirus, 136 00:16:38,380 --> 00:16:47,530 we decided to cancel that. And so we we pulled off that last day of action as a precaution because although 137 00:16:47,530 --> 00:16:52,830 at the time the government was saying we're not introducing any I mean, 138 00:16:52,870 --> 00:16:56,140 any restrictions on life, it didn't seem like a terribly good idea. 139 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:04,960 So so that was my first sort of realisation and direct impact on my day to day life from the virus. 140 00:17:06,550 --> 00:17:11,800 And since then, obviously my, my academic interest in it has also increased. 141 00:17:13,030 --> 00:17:22,690 So just to start with the impact on the day to day life, what when the lockdown finally did come into play, the university put measures in across. 142 00:17:22,900 --> 00:17:30,610 How did that affect what you were able to do? So, yeah, so so in a few a few days before lockdown, probably about four, 143 00:17:31,060 --> 00:17:37,030 four or five days before lockdown, I actually told my academic colleagues, you know, nice to see you guys. 144 00:17:37,130 --> 00:17:42,400 I'll see you in however long I'll see you. I don't think I'll be seeing you for a while. 145 00:17:43,750 --> 00:17:46,989 Which elicited slightly puzzled and quizzical responses. 146 00:17:46,990 --> 00:17:51,270 I think a few people thought I was the person talking about it. 147 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:56,020 So I stopped going to two a few days before, before the lockdown. 148 00:17:59,530 --> 00:18:12,690 At the time, academically, it meant that we shifted our research activities online, which for the kind of work I was doing then was achievable. 149 00:18:12,700 --> 00:18:17,140 I think, you know, we did a lot of computational work can be done at home. 150 00:18:18,290 --> 00:18:24,940 Like it. So did you have to take computers? Yeah, we took you know, everyone took their computers home. 151 00:18:27,940 --> 00:18:35,560 Obviously, it impacts research nonetheless because we were all at home. 152 00:18:35,770 --> 00:18:46,520 I have two small children and, you know, having them in the house is not a terribly conducive way of doing research, although schools didn't close. 153 00:18:46,900 --> 00:18:54,280 So why did they? They closed in April, if I remember correctly. Um, and so so I did carry on my research. 154 00:18:54,610 --> 00:19:07,050 I shifted more of my attention towards Kogan's. Um, but it also my trade union work activity escalated, which diverted me to, 155 00:19:07,090 --> 00:19:14,110 to an extent away from research because I became involved in making representations to the university 156 00:19:14,110 --> 00:19:21,850 on behalf of the trade union to try and ensure that things are as safe as possible for full staff. 157 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,440 Um, so yeah, I think those are the ways in which there was an impact. 158 00:19:26,570 --> 00:19:33,250 Yeah. Yeah. And presumably there was a concern, particularly for short term staff, about them being able to maintain their income. 159 00:19:34,120 --> 00:19:39,220 Yes. Yes, there were there was a lot of worry about about jobs. 160 00:19:40,900 --> 00:19:48,549 So some of these discussions with with the university, um, all the time they were well, 161 00:19:48,550 --> 00:19:54,910 initially for the first month or so, we didn't have much interaction directly with the university. 162 00:19:55,270 --> 00:20:03,880 We were sending them impassioned letters and please and that sort of thing, which initially were probably largely ignored, 163 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:14,770 but eventually that there was a decision made to to have regular meetings almost weekly between the trade union and the university. 164 00:20:15,220 --> 00:20:17,950 Um, which I think was the right decision. 165 00:20:18,910 --> 00:20:24,459 And in those meetings we talked about things like the application of the furlough scheme, the impacts on this, 166 00:20:24,460 --> 00:20:30,730 on, on short term staff, the impacts on staff with protected characteristics, all that sort of thing. 167 00:20:30,730 --> 00:20:36,850 And trying to make sure that all these things were applied in a way that was as fair as possible, 168 00:20:36,850 --> 00:20:41,470 that protected prospective people out as possible as could be. 169 00:20:42,010 --> 00:20:46,629 Um. Yeah. Mm hmm. So let's go back to your shift. 170 00:20:46,630 --> 00:20:51,070 You said you shifted your research into kind of it. Um, how did that come about? 171 00:20:51,070 --> 00:20:53,950 What what questions? About so many questions? 172 00:20:54,460 --> 00:21:01,570 This, you know, what were the immediate questions that you felt that you were in a good place to to explore? 173 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:08,710 So as an evolutionary biologist and someone who's been looking at all sorts of different viruses. 174 00:21:09,130 --> 00:21:15,330 Um, I felt in a good place to understand the, the evolution and the interactions of these viruses and the. 175 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:24,459 Host Um, and so I was interested in trying to see what we could predict, you know, whether, 176 00:21:24,460 --> 00:21:33,280 whether this is something that would run its course, whether it's something that, that would be, would be an escalating threat. 177 00:21:33,790 --> 00:21:42,820 Um. Um, and trying to sort of a lot of people at the time were saying things with incredibly incredible certainty. 178 00:21:43,340 --> 00:21:49,740 Um, and I was interested in interrogating accounts and seeing what really can be said with, with certainty, based on what we know. 179 00:21:49,750 --> 00:21:56,830 I mean, there were no SARS-CoV-2 experts at the beginning of the pandemic because this virus can exist. 180 00:21:57,410 --> 00:22:02,770 Um, but I felt that because I'd looked at viruses broadly, it's something I should think about. 181 00:22:03,220 --> 00:22:07,750 It didn't dominate my research entirely, but it was certainly something I was looking at. 182 00:22:08,350 --> 00:22:12,669 Um, and the genome was available from the end of January, I think it was, yes. 183 00:22:12,670 --> 00:22:25,360 Yeah. Um, and, uh, I mean, over the, the months after that, there were various sort of in a sense, 184 00:22:25,360 --> 00:22:31,429 you kind of had to look around for opportunities to, to say something interesting and see what you can work. 185 00:22:31,430 --> 00:22:40,090 House. Um, and, and for example, one of my Dphil students, um, was, 186 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:46,060 we were working together on this theoretical question all the time dependency of rights of evolution. 187 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:58,260 Um, but because of his background's from, um, he's originally from Iran and Iran had an incredibly horrific manifestation of, 188 00:22:58,510 --> 00:23:03,110 of the pandemic and a local manifestation of the pandemic. 189 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:12,620 Um. He was interested in seeing if we could evaluate the true impact because there was a genuine fear that there was a big undercounting. 190 00:23:14,780 --> 00:23:24,799 And so we were we suddenly turned our attention to seeing if we can measure the impacts and see, you know, how bad is the local wave in Iran? 191 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:32,780 And because of his contacts and his interest and my role as a supervisor, I said, 192 00:23:32,780 --> 00:23:37,400 Yeah, okay, just divert your research to the lab if that's what you want to do. And I hope you as much as I can. 193 00:23:37,420 --> 00:23:49,460 And so we looked at that, um, another, another thing I got involved in very, very early on was a collaboration with a team in Imperial. 194 00:23:50,210 --> 00:23:55,940 This is the team that involves one of the members of the team was Neil Ferguson, for example, 195 00:23:55,940 --> 00:24:03,620 who we did the paper on, on the initial evaluation of the epidemic that led to the lockdown. 196 00:24:05,750 --> 00:24:16,310 And one of the dominant ideas at the time was that herd immunity would naturally stop the epidemic. 197 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:26,180 And we did some some theoretical and analytical work with this team to to show that it actually didn't look to be doing a lot at all. 198 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,670 And so, you know, we we put a paper out on that and showing that. 199 00:24:32,330 --> 00:24:41,090 And in Europe, from where we went, where we had data, that there was no evidence of herd immunity, damping, damping these epidemic waves. 200 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,139 Um, so yeah, those were sort of initial things. 201 00:24:45,140 --> 00:24:48,590 I did the around work carried on. 202 00:24:48,620 --> 00:24:56,080 We're still working on, um, undercounting mortality and in reconstructing the, 203 00:24:56,100 --> 00:25:00,750 the dynamics of the epidemic in Iran with, with my students, that's, that's, 204 00:25:00,860 --> 00:25:06,019 you know, operated as a kind of case study that enables you to arrive at particular 205 00:25:06,020 --> 00:25:11,330 insights into the way the virus works and moves and how it affects populations. 206 00:25:12,230 --> 00:25:19,490 Yeah, I mean, one thing we've, we've noticed and we've just, uh, we've, 207 00:25:19,670 --> 00:25:23,899 we've just submitted a paper on this actually and we've put it out as a preprint already. 208 00:25:23,900 --> 00:25:34,100 Is, is that Iran, despite the incredible toll the virus has had, there, doesn't seem to be anywhere near Marinette. 209 00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:41,239 And so you have these peaks coming over time, peak after peak after peak, all of which are very high. 210 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:46,730 In fact, escalating peaks are higher in Iran relative to previous peaks. 211 00:25:47,870 --> 00:25:53,929 And so we're interested in in the observation that that doesn't seem to be a natural. 212 00:25:53,930 --> 00:26:00,710 And through through past infection, Iran has quite or had quite low vaccination rates. 213 00:26:02,090 --> 00:26:08,360 And so understanding that and what that might mean more, more globally is something that is very interesting to us. 214 00:26:09,230 --> 00:26:22,130 Um, it echoes findings in Manaus, Brazil, for example, where we had this, um, the second wave of the what's now called gamma variants, 215 00:26:22,850 --> 00:26:33,979 which seems to have been higher than the first, um, and of similar things in Southern Africa have been seen. 216 00:26:33,980 --> 00:26:41,720 So, so this, this, this general sort of observation of a lack of natural damping over time is something that I think is very important. 217 00:26:42,380 --> 00:26:51,680 Um, and I mean, you read general statements from time to time about things like the, that as the virus, uh, 218 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:57,530 evolves through the different letters of the alphabet, not counting over code because that seems to have come from somewhere else. 219 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:03,740 But the previous ones that affected this country became more transmissible with time. 220 00:27:03,930 --> 00:27:10,310 Is, does that general generalisation stand up? And if so, what would be the evolutionary reason for that? 221 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,159 Yeah. So, um, I believe it does stand up. 222 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:24,649 I think, um, you know, this is a virus that's, uh, crossed into humans as a sort of general as virus. 223 00:27:24,650 --> 00:27:33,200 It was quite good at replicating in humans, but also not really adapted to human replication, probably quite good at replicating in other animals too. 224 00:27:33,830 --> 00:27:43,190 Um, but what we saw in this first phase of the pandemic is this accumulation of variants that are better at transmitting in humans, 225 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:49,820 the alpha and then the delta variant being about 50% more transmissible respectively. 226 00:27:50,390 --> 00:27:53,690 Um, like you said, al-Muqrin has a slightly more complicated story. 227 00:27:53,870 --> 00:27:59,300 Um, and this is something that may continue. 228 00:28:00,230 --> 00:28:05,210 It may also change as, as immunity builds up in the population and the dynamics of the. 229 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:11,290 Do change that. But it's a very important future feature that surprised a lot of people. 230 00:28:11,300 --> 00:28:21,050 I think the idea that transmissibility would increase by 50% shortly after less than a year. 231 00:28:21,050 --> 00:28:24,680 Right. For three of the variants. Trying to do the math in my head, yeah. 232 00:28:25,610 --> 00:28:29,960 I look kind of lost the whole year. So would I try to think back to what happened? 233 00:28:30,350 --> 00:28:34,440 Yeah. The idea that it's pretty much too over years ago now seems like unbelievable. 234 00:28:35,070 --> 00:28:40,400 Yeah. So. So I think that the magnitude of that surprised a lot of people. 235 00:28:41,970 --> 00:28:49,190 And I mean, I at the time was was so taken aback, I thought, okay, if this happens, it might happen again. 236 00:28:49,190 --> 00:28:53,150 So we better take this quite seriously. Mm hmm. Yeah. 237 00:28:53,630 --> 00:28:58,910 So, in general, would you say what you knew about viruses and what you've observed about SARS-CoV-2? 238 00:28:59,960 --> 00:29:09,470 Uh, make you more or less anxious about how it might evolve in the future and, indeed, what other viruses might emerge? 239 00:29:11,570 --> 00:29:21,650 I would say probably more. Um, so, you know, I've spent a lot of my research trying to piece together what an ancient well, 240 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:29,090 what a viral transmission might have looked like by putting together indirect effects on events that happened millions of years ago. 241 00:29:29,810 --> 00:29:36,350 Here we have something that that's that's playing out in front of our, in front of our very eyes, um, 242 00:29:37,100 --> 00:29:48,470 and things that we've only hypothesised are happening, uh, adaptation and the speed of adaptation is, is happening in a measurable sense. 243 00:29:50,150 --> 00:29:58,130 And that, I don't, I don't think that any of us really thought that the speed of adaptation could be as high as it is, 244 00:29:59,330 --> 00:30:08,030 and that that definitely something that worries me. Yes. 245 00:30:08,710 --> 00:30:15,200 Among your research community, I mean, it's certainly in Oxford as a whole, but there have, you know, 246 00:30:15,290 --> 00:30:22,280 hundreds of people, thousands probably whose research pivoted to some aspect of the of the pandemic. 247 00:30:24,190 --> 00:30:31,300 Did it? Has it felt to you like being a more collaborative exercise than the way you were used to doing research previously? 248 00:30:33,750 --> 00:30:42,180 Um, it's, it's a very strange experience that I think more interactive, certainly. 249 00:30:42,690 --> 00:30:48,450 Um, a more collaborative to an extent. I mean, the speeds or. 250 00:30:50,010 --> 00:30:54,930 Doing research is one that I don't think any any of us has encountered before. 251 00:30:56,250 --> 00:30:57,240 So, for example, you know, 252 00:30:57,450 --> 00:31:04,890 the proliferation of Preprints and the fact that people put out information all the time on what they think might be happening. 253 00:31:05,730 --> 00:31:13,110 And even, you know, even on social media. Right. Likes people will put the plot on Twitter and suddenly that becomes what 254 00:31:13,110 --> 00:31:16,650 everyone is talking about for a few days and trying to work out what it means, 255 00:31:16,980 --> 00:31:26,040 how to debunk it. So, so, so having the scientific community interacting in this intense way is very, very new and very, 256 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:34,829 very, very challenging, but also also quite fascinating from a, from a research perspective collaborative. 257 00:31:34,830 --> 00:31:43,319 Yeah. I mean, the collaborations are all kind of fishing, a fusion of this in this climate because they're not all lasting. 258 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:50,820 So you may, you may sort of interact with a few people to try and follow up one question and with a different set of people to follow up another. 259 00:31:50,820 --> 00:32:01,020 So, so certainly collaboration is part of it. I don't think it's academia or academia. 260 00:32:01,020 --> 00:32:04,170 So competition always exists among the collaboration, unfortunately, 261 00:32:06,330 --> 00:32:10,020 but people are more yeah, no, I think it's fair to say people are more collaborative. 262 00:32:10,020 --> 00:32:18,299 I mean, we saw with South Africa, for example, and the data they were putting out now with the Omnicom variant, 263 00:32:18,300 --> 00:32:23,100 for example, potentially to the detriment of their own, 264 00:32:23,100 --> 00:32:32,520 um, their own interest economy, that the idea of putting out data is, is an important one and thankfully is generally upheld by most people. 265 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:42,000 HM And have you personally felt a sense of responsibility to give advice either formally 266 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:46,890 through the various committees that have been set up or through using public channels? 267 00:32:48,000 --> 00:33:01,890 Yeah, I have. I think I generally try and respond to queries and requests to to contribute as much as I can constrained by the realities of life. 268 00:33:02,420 --> 00:33:12,660 We don't have, you know, infinite time. But I have done, you know, more media work during the pandemic than I have ever done before. 269 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,000 And how do you feel about it? 270 00:33:17,370 --> 00:33:26,130 Yeah, it's it's a really interesting experience. I think it is challenging and try and trying to work out understandable ways to to explain things. 271 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:31,649 Um, it's something I feel I should do because I'm in a good position to do it. 272 00:33:31,650 --> 00:33:36,540 And so I do it in terms of committee work and that sort of thing. 273 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:43,590 I try to contribute through, through, through committees and larger groups when I can. 274 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:52,079 There's the trade union work, for example, where I do try and use my expertise there in the initial phases of of the pandemic, 275 00:33:52,080 --> 00:34:02,430 I was invited to to be co-opted on to a group called Science Scientists for Labour who were giving scientific advice to the Labour Party. 276 00:34:03,870 --> 00:34:09,900 I initially was quite involved with that. I eventually drifted away for for various reasons. 277 00:34:10,470 --> 00:34:18,300 Um, I'm now most, most recently a few weeks ago, I was asked to get involved in Independent Sage, 278 00:34:20,460 --> 00:34:28,320 which I've gone to two of the briefings so, so far and see, see what I can contribute. 279 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:36,809 So, so as, as, and when I offer my advice in, you know, in the, in zoology, for example, 280 00:34:36,810 --> 00:34:48,170 which is where I work because I recently published a paper on mitigation in universities with Chris Greenhouse. 281 00:34:48,240 --> 00:34:51,629 Oh, you people bring this up. Yes. Just tell me a bit about that. 282 00:34:51,630 --> 00:35:02,459 So what was that setting up to do? So we we were, you know, because we both work in universities and and also on COVID, 283 00:35:02,460 --> 00:35:07,320 a lot of people were asking us, well, how how do we keep ourselves safe in universities? 284 00:35:07,500 --> 00:35:12,479 So we kept on guessing these personal questions and thought, well, let's okay, well, 285 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:17,670 let's try and let's try and formalise a response and actually produce a paper 286 00:35:17,670 --> 00:35:23,670 on this to give a general guideline on how to make things as safe as possible. 287 00:35:23,700 --> 00:35:28,980 And this also included a couple of other collaborative collaborators for some Whiteson and Stephen Griffin. 288 00:35:29,970 --> 00:35:40,709 And so we put together this this paper, sent it to two trade unions, to colleagues, to anyone who are interested as well. 289 00:35:40,710 --> 00:35:49,390 We also published it as a, as a, as a paper. Um, and one of the things that came up in. 290 00:35:49,540 --> 00:35:52,570 In zoology, for example, was because we're designing a new building. 291 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,599 The people responsible for that were interested in seeing whether we could incorporate any of 292 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:04,049 this guidance into the structure of the building in terms of insulation and that sort of thing, 293 00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:10,000 because we were, you know, giving specific suggestions on on the right of our exchange of filtration and that sort of thing, 294 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:15,370 which are quite hard to add to buildings but are easier to engineer from the start. 295 00:36:15,430 --> 00:36:23,860 So I sort of thought, you know, that's something that came up. But yeah, that's so. 296 00:36:23,950 --> 00:36:29,560 And then there was the yeah, there was an open letter in the BMJ that's quite recently papers that. 297 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:37,180 Yeah, um, there've been a few open letters over the, over the years. 298 00:36:39,230 --> 00:36:44,290 When. The vaccines plus one. Well, yeah. 299 00:36:44,300 --> 00:36:48,620 So. So that. Yeah, that was. Yeah. 300 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,750 That came about. Just said a couple of months ago, I can't even remember now. 301 00:36:52,780 --> 00:37:01,760 But but the, the, the overarching sort of motivation behind that was to emphasise to the point that, 302 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,920 you know, vaccines are fantastic and we should deploy them as much as possible, 303 00:37:08,390 --> 00:37:20,000 but they may not always be enough to control inflation and everything and that we need to be using all the tools at our disposal in order to, 304 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:23,440 to to protect ourselves from from the pandemic. 305 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,930 So and this comes we didn't talk about any this case before, 306 00:37:26,930 --> 00:37:34,790 but one of the tricks that the virus viruses in general cover up their sleeve is this notion of it being this great thing. 307 00:37:34,790 --> 00:37:41,150 Phineas, talk a little bit about that. Well, yeah. Um, so. 308 00:37:42,430 --> 00:37:52,219 But not natural selection pushes the evolution of a virus in particular directions, depending on the selective pressures of the virus encounters. 309 00:37:52,220 --> 00:37:58,970 And probably the initial selective pressure SARS-CoV-2 encountered was, um, around transmission. 310 00:37:59,660 --> 00:38:07,790 Um, but as immunity becomes more of a pervasive feature of the landscape for this virus, um, 311 00:38:08,180 --> 00:38:17,140 the need to overcome this immunity is a bigger force in its evolution and has probably, 312 00:38:17,330 --> 00:38:21,740 to a large extent, determined the the emergence and dominance of the home-grown variants. 313 00:38:23,030 --> 00:38:28,600 To an extent, Delta. Delta was a little immune evasive, but nowhere near as much as Almagro. 314 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,510 Um. And so, um. 315 00:38:33,650 --> 00:38:44,020 Vaccines. Vaccines ve low levels of application interact in complex ways with natural selection. 316 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:51,010 So if replication is very high and you're introducing a bit of immunity into the population, 317 00:38:51,550 --> 00:38:59,380 that can actually escalate the evolutionary pressure and has the likelihood of 318 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:06,160 of the emergence of immune escape features in the genome of the virus are very, 319 00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:16,030 very high levels of vaccination that probably goes away because of the effects of high levels of application on the vaccine, 320 00:39:16,240 --> 00:39:24,729 on the transmission of the virus. So once you vaccinate everybody, this is probably less of a less of an importance process. 321 00:39:24,730 --> 00:39:32,710 But as you vaccinate the world, the importance of keeping transmission low, both for the public health, 322 00:39:33,670 --> 00:39:37,870 obvious public health benefits of low transmission in an unprotected population, 323 00:39:38,230 --> 00:39:46,090 but also in terms of minimising the risk of the emergence of immune escape variants, is a very important aspect. 324 00:39:46,090 --> 00:39:49,750 And one one we one we emphasised in the open letter. 325 00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,210 And, um. Yeah. 326 00:39:56,430 --> 00:40:02,089 Um. On the whole, like, well, I think we'll be able to ask the political question. 327 00:40:02,090 --> 00:40:08,690 To what extent do you think those who are setting the guidelines have paid attention to the 328 00:40:08,690 --> 00:40:14,690 the huge body of scientific research that's gone on about how to manage this outbreak? 329 00:40:16,530 --> 00:40:20,920 Um. They observe it. 330 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:32,410 I mean, you know, the there is a the the amount of evidence produced here locally in the UK that can guides the pandemic responses is vast. 331 00:40:32,500 --> 00:40:41,080 I mean, there's an incredibly, incredibly alert system by both scientists, but through public health as well. 332 00:40:42,220 --> 00:40:45,550 So we have really, really good data to to inform our response. 333 00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:55,510 I think it's fair to say that the government, while aware of it, has not always acted on it in a timely fashion. 334 00:40:57,460 --> 00:41:07,690 And I think this is this has been a pervasive feature of the response in the UK from the delays involved in in the first lockdown, 335 00:41:09,220 --> 00:41:22,240 from the delays from the lack of of an October circuit breaker in 2020, the delay in acting on on the Delta information, for example. 336 00:41:22,240 --> 00:41:35,290 And, you know, not not restricting the transmission of the virus from India where it emerged to to the UK throughout really I think a now. 337 00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,800 So here we are at the end of January 2022. 338 00:41:39,070 --> 00:41:46,540 Yeah. Being told that pretty much all restrictions will be lifted imminently if you think that's too soon. 339 00:41:46,900 --> 00:41:52,840 Yes. Yeah. And, you know, I think we're yeah, it's it's a it's a gamble. 340 00:41:52,840 --> 00:42:01,690 And, you know, it is possible that that after the current wave does pass through, 341 00:42:01,690 --> 00:42:08,950 it is possible that we may have a period of relative quiet, but it is also possible that we will not. 342 00:42:09,310 --> 00:42:21,010 And also the the level of of public health interventions will also shape the that the points at which the the case rate will settle. 343 00:42:21,550 --> 00:42:29,890 Um, and so by, by taking away all restrictions, we are going to determine the number of cases, 344 00:42:29,890 --> 00:42:33,070 hospitalisations and deaths that we will see over the coming months. 345 00:42:33,610 --> 00:42:37,120 And they could be lower if we took a more cautious approach. 346 00:42:37,990 --> 00:42:40,030 So one of your other papers which I got to pick up on, 347 00:42:40,030 --> 00:42:47,470 was also addressing this question of domestic and how that's presented in a somewhat misleading way sometimes. 348 00:42:47,890 --> 00:42:53,770 Can you just walk us through what it means to, you know, it and how it's relative? 349 00:42:53,890 --> 00:42:57,580 Yeah. Um, so so a lot a lot of time, 350 00:42:58,030 --> 00:43:06,759 a lot of the time we have people use the words and the Mr. T and they kind of intermix it with assumptions about 351 00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:15,249 what viruses do in terms of epidemiology and their infection and this sense of an inevitable march towards a calm, 352 00:43:15,250 --> 00:43:17,200 benign, harmless future. 353 00:43:17,930 --> 00:43:25,330 Um, and, you know, you sometimes hear a politician say, oh, well, and the mystery is inevitable, and then the mystery is going to be fine. 354 00:43:26,650 --> 00:43:34,090 And so I sort of wrote this piece to kind of explain what the mystery means in an epidemiological sense. 355 00:43:35,230 --> 00:43:38,350 It just means a relative stability of case rates. 356 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:45,010 It doesn't mean that that one will be it will be high or low or benign or not benign. 357 00:43:46,150 --> 00:43:51,969 And so I was interested in highlighting that the the effects of our actions will will determine 358 00:43:51,970 --> 00:43:57,850 what that potential and future would look like and whether it's one that is desirable or not. 359 00:43:58,500 --> 00:44:08,649 Um, and I think, you know, an endemic future with the really high case rates is one that will have a lot of death and disease and 360 00:44:08,650 --> 00:44:15,340 also one that will allow the virus more opportunities to to evolve and cause more problems down the line. 361 00:44:16,810 --> 00:44:24,490 And the way to avoid that is to keep the the the non-pharmaceutical interventions going for longer, do you think? 362 00:44:25,300 --> 00:44:30,070 I think until until more of the world is vaccinated in a targeted way. 363 00:44:30,070 --> 00:44:40,299 They do need to be switched on for for longer. Um, and I think we also need to look into structural alterations much more so things, 364 00:44:40,300 --> 00:44:47,230 things that can be going on in the background that disrupt our lives as little as possible, 365 00:44:47,620 --> 00:44:53,380 but can be maintained in perpetuity in order to make sure that and then acceptance as low as possible. 366 00:44:54,730 --> 00:45:03,010 So things things that things like ventilation, for example, and filtration that will require massive investments. 367 00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:11,980 But once they are put in, no longer disrupt our lives in the same way as other things, 368 00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:17,230 I mean, you know, mask wearing, for example, is is a slightly disruptive activity. 369 00:45:19,100 --> 00:45:28,520 But that could potentially be reduced as other aspects of the responses, its strength and isolation as well can be kept as a shorts as possible. 370 00:45:29,330 --> 00:45:36,469 And, you know, deploying the science through through testing and that sort of thing to ensure that it can be as assured but 371 00:45:36,470 --> 00:45:45,290 also as safe as possible is a really important aspect of our public health policy that we could maintain. 372 00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,800 Although it is looking like it won't be maintained at all going forwards. 373 00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:56,480 So these kinds of structural alterations, investments in further research, 374 00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:03,740 we're still vaccinating people against the initial strain of the virus that emerged in Wuhan two years ago. 375 00:46:05,300 --> 00:46:16,970 And I think it's about time that we consider updating our vaccines to to to other, newer strains in order to engender broader immune responses. 376 00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:27,260 And obviously, as as the science develops, the hope is that with both the structural interventions, 377 00:46:27,260 --> 00:46:34,560 the the individual level interventions and restrictions will keep going down to the point where they no longer influence our lives. 378 00:46:34,630 --> 00:46:43,510 Mm hmm. So to what extent have you felt personally threatened by the possibility of being infected? 379 00:46:43,660 --> 00:46:49,780 Or have you been afraid? Um, I don't believe I have been infected. 380 00:46:50,410 --> 00:46:59,530 Um, I've. I've never tested positive. Um, it's varied. 381 00:47:00,070 --> 00:47:07,680 Um, I'm probably, I, I worried. 382 00:47:07,690 --> 00:47:15,009 I've worried because of the unknowns. I don't know what's, um, you know, the long term impacts of COVID infection will be I don't think anybody does. 383 00:47:15,010 --> 00:47:19,409 And that's something that concerns me. Um, I'm worried about my. 384 00:47:19,410 --> 00:47:22,450 My family, my kids, my partner. Right. Right. 385 00:47:22,450 --> 00:47:26,499 I think it's a very high it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 386 00:47:26,500 --> 00:47:34,240 I mean, my, my school has got cases all the time and it's, you know, it's a, it is a matter of time until she gets is. 387 00:47:34,780 --> 00:47:50,020 Um I was extremely concerned that impacted in October this year I had to go to Greece because my my dad was in hospital and then sadly passed away. 388 00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:55,360 Um, but I was visiting him in ICU every day. 389 00:47:55,360 --> 00:48:03,370 So I had to take a test every single day. And I, you know, I was terrified of the idea that I might also bring him the virus. 390 00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,910 Um, I did everything I could to, to minimise that. 391 00:48:07,510 --> 00:48:13,659 Um, direct fear from, for myself is not, it's not the overriding concern. 392 00:48:13,660 --> 00:48:16,870 I think I, I feel. 393 00:48:17,860 --> 00:48:22,150 That I'm personally I mean, this is all subjective, right? 394 00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:25,570 We're talking about feelings. I, I don't fear death from covid. 395 00:48:26,410 --> 00:48:33,830 I, I'm concerned about the possible long term implications because it's a virus that we know so little about know. 396 00:48:37,850 --> 00:48:41,420 Uh. So did you. Did you? 397 00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:45,580 I think you mentioned that. Did you work longer hours than usual during the pandemic? 398 00:48:47,350 --> 00:48:50,590 I think that's. Yeah. Yes. 399 00:48:50,770 --> 00:48:54,580 Whether those hours could all be described as work is another question. 400 00:48:54,820 --> 00:49:00,910 I mean, the experience of of homeschooling to kids. 401 00:49:01,690 --> 00:49:08,050 While while trying to work and talk to the media and be involved in advisory abilities 402 00:49:09,190 --> 00:49:14,890 is one way you would kind of wake up and be involved in things until you went to bed. 403 00:49:16,810 --> 00:49:23,920 How much of that was actual work is another question because my my partner also 404 00:49:24,730 --> 00:49:28,720 has a full time had a full time job through throughout most of the pandemic. 405 00:49:28,900 --> 00:49:35,290 And, um, and we will kind of trying to somehow manage all of all of these activities together. 406 00:49:35,950 --> 00:49:43,870 But it's certainly certainly one where, you know, much of the working day is covered with thoughts of much of the day, 407 00:49:43,900 --> 00:49:47,810 isn't coupled with thoughts about work, although all academics tend to do that for themselves anyway. 408 00:49:47,930 --> 00:49:52,520 Yeah. Um. Yeah. And um. 409 00:49:52,890 --> 00:49:59,680 Besides, yes. I mean, are you normally involved in teaching and how is that impacted by that? 410 00:50:01,030 --> 00:50:06,130 Yeah. So, um, I, yeah, I do teaching in the department, um, in the college. 411 00:50:06,790 --> 00:50:12,759 Um, a lot of that has moved online. 412 00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:21,129 And so getting to grips with the software for moving lectures online and doing that is, 413 00:50:21,130 --> 00:50:27,550 is the paid recording lectures is, is, if it's not, not a trivial activity. 414 00:50:27,940 --> 00:50:37,960 Um, uh, I quite like the products of a recorded lecture, but, but I do obviously enjoy the, the in-person version of it more. 415 00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:42,940 Um, tutorials of course are a massive part of teaching in Oxford that I'm involved in, 416 00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:50,140 that there are periods where that has been online in the last autumn. 417 00:50:50,310 --> 00:50:59,980 Um, some of that I did in person, um, trying to incorporate all the guidance that, that, that we were working on. 418 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:06,760 So ventilation, masking distancing, keeping numbers low and encouraging people to be safe. 419 00:51:08,500 --> 00:51:15,490 Some of it inevitably moved online because if someone was sick or someone was waiting for tests and then obviously we would go online. 420 00:51:16,130 --> 00:51:19,300 Um, and so it's been a, it's been a, it's been a mix. 421 00:51:19,300 --> 00:51:26,350 It's been, it's been interesting. I, so, for example, on online tutorials, uh, I find. 422 00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:38,670 Draining for a tutor because you you end up doing more of the talking and the work compared to an in-person tutorial, I think. 423 00:51:39,780 --> 00:51:49,890 So it's it's really hard work. It's probably just because the students feel more apprehensive or nervous in an online situation, 424 00:51:50,010 --> 00:51:54,000 they're less forthcoming and they can't interact with each other in the same way. 425 00:51:54,030 --> 00:52:04,950 The contrast is, yeah, that the interactions between them are loads but but also I think, I mean two tutorials are meant to be interactive, right? 426 00:52:04,950 --> 00:52:15,150 It's not meant to be just the tutor talking. And I think non-verbal cues are an important aspect of encouraging participation. 427 00:52:15,970 --> 00:52:22,710 Um, and those are harder to do. You have to, you have to say, you know, you've got two students. 428 00:52:22,890 --> 00:52:30,840 Well, well, you know, Lisa, what do you think? Um, and in a in a real tutorial, I would almost never do that. 429 00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:34,590 I would never call someone by name and tell them to participate. 430 00:52:34,590 --> 00:52:40,470 I would pause and kind of nod and look at them, and it would happen. 431 00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,129 Um, and that's, that's difficult to replicate online. 432 00:52:44,130 --> 00:52:52,250 It's, it's, it's a lot more artificial. Um, however, in terms of what you can give them as a tutor, in terms of the delivery of material. 433 00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:59,460 I actually think it's possibly in some, some cases, even even better. 434 00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:06,449 Um, but yeah, in the long run I wouldn't like to see it replace if you think it's good for 435 00:53:06,450 --> 00:53:11,340 the having a balance between the two in future regardless of of infection. 436 00:53:11,580 --> 00:53:15,140 That's right I think a balance yeah. 437 00:53:15,150 --> 00:53:24,450 I think that there are topics that work well online and I the more didactic ones for example to do it quite well, 438 00:53:24,450 --> 00:53:28,860 I wouldn't, I don't, I don't think it's something we should exclude. 439 00:53:29,010 --> 00:53:36,360 Um, obviously, I think, you know, research and feedback is going to be really important in determining whether, 440 00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:38,400 whether there is something new that will stick around. 441 00:53:39,030 --> 00:53:46,169 Um, I don't think the, the, the, I don't think I'd like to see the lectures being be replaced with recordings. 442 00:53:46,170 --> 00:53:50,780 I think that would be a terrible, terrible thing to happen to academia in the long run. 443 00:53:50,790 --> 00:53:57,840 I think the, um, although a lecture does look like it's quite one dimensional, a lecturer is just standing in the front and talking. 444 00:53:58,460 --> 00:54:08,100 Uh, I think the, the feeling and the, the performance element of it is actually quite an important parts of, of learning. 445 00:54:08,700 --> 00:54:12,540 Um, and so I don't. I wouldn't like to see that go away. 446 00:54:12,710 --> 00:54:15,990 Mm hm. So. So we do union hat on. 447 00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:26,850 How would you evaluate how well the university managed, um, that the h or aspects, if you like, of the pandemic as a whole. 448 00:54:27,930 --> 00:54:32,190 It's been a mix. Um, some better than others. 449 00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:47,009 Um. I think locally the University of Oxford has been quite tied in to matching what the government guidance is and because in my 450 00:54:47,010 --> 00:54:53,250 view the government guidance has not always been adequate as a response because of this commitment to matching the Government's, 451 00:54:53,790 --> 00:54:57,960 the university response has not always been, in my view, enough. 452 00:55:00,990 --> 00:55:07,260 I've often found ourselves in meetings saying things and feeling like I haven't been listened to. 453 00:55:07,260 --> 00:55:16,150 This ensued. But then a month later, you know, the university side, they they they do look like they had listened to and they do so. 454 00:55:16,230 --> 00:55:23,910 So there have been cases where the university has gone over and above government guidance, for example, around masking, around testing. 455 00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:34,290 They've had an incredibly proactive approach to vaccination, and these are all really important things that they have done. 456 00:55:35,370 --> 00:55:47,340 But for example, now, you know, the university has is dropping the masking mandates and so much the government's off on the government response. 457 00:55:47,730 --> 00:55:51,810 I don't think that's right. I think we we also brought it into light. 458 00:55:52,350 --> 00:55:58,620 We've had confused guidance around masking for parts of the pandemic. 459 00:55:59,910 --> 00:56:03,900 And there are certainly been been times when I felt more more could have been done. 460 00:56:11,610 --> 00:56:19,920 So do you think? I think I think it's a it's a sort of truism that lockdown was difficult for everybody. 461 00:56:20,190 --> 00:56:26,220 Do you think the fact that you had that your work was directly related to the pandemic and it was something that you could get on with? 462 00:56:27,750 --> 00:56:37,050 Did that support your own wellbeing, do you think? Or was it the fact that you knew so much about the virus make you even more worried? 463 00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:41,760 I think it just the worry. I think a worry in the sense of having to do this. 464 00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:53,879 I don't know. I don't I don't think it's because of my. Well, I think the I mean, the union activity, for example, was very, very hard, actually. 465 00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:59,490 You know, the sense of making representations and feeling like you're not listened to is incredibly draining. 466 00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:08,600 Um, and actually I have, um, I have reduced my, my, my contributions to union work to protect my wellbeing. 467 00:57:09,370 --> 00:57:14,790 Um, and don't tend to as much of it now as I did in the, in the earlier phases, 468 00:57:14,790 --> 00:57:23,250 but because of, of wellbeing reasons, um, and I think the, you know, the kids aspects of this, 469 00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:34,860 um, however much I find my research fascinating, the, the idea of, of compromising their wellbeing because of having to do all this at the same time. 470 00:57:34,860 --> 00:57:41,100 It was not a very pleasant one. So I don't I don't, I don't think I don't think it did make it more more. 471 00:57:42,150 --> 00:57:48,960 More. Yeah, I don't. Certainly didn't make it's harmless to my well-being in terms of comparing that to other people's experience. 472 00:57:48,980 --> 00:57:52,350 I'm not sure I'm necessarily best placed to make that comparison. 473 00:57:53,210 --> 00:57:57,940 Um. Uh. 474 00:58:00,580 --> 00:58:04,180 Okay. I think we would have got to the end. So that that got two final questions. 475 00:58:04,450 --> 00:58:10,930 So has the work that you've been able to do with COVID raised new questions that you're interested in exploring in the future? 476 00:58:12,250 --> 00:58:22,140 Definitely. Definitely. Um, so, um, you know, the, the emergence of variants, for example, 477 00:58:22,150 --> 00:58:29,260 like how and why do these variants emerge within the early stages of a pandemic is something that has never, 478 00:58:29,270 --> 00:58:32,770 never really previously been thought about or seen. 479 00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:40,570 And I'm very interested in understanding that process. Um, what are the forces that, that shape thoughts? 480 00:58:40,990 --> 00:58:49,060 Um, to what extent do you know, you might have heard about this idea of long term immunocompromised, 481 00:58:49,600 --> 00:58:55,360 chronically infected patients, for example, may be the the the space in which these variants arise. 482 00:58:56,050 --> 00:59:03,280 Understanding that. So people who've got HIV, for example, HIV or immunotherapy or certain cancers, 483 00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:09,100 for example, that might be where, where these variants sort of incubates. 484 00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:13,780 Um, I'm trying to understand vaccine obviously to mitigate that as well. 485 00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:15,930 Um, it's going to be a, 486 00:59:16,370 --> 00:59:23,019 it's a really interesting question and also an important public health one to to we need to different have different vaccination strategies. 487 00:59:23,020 --> 00:59:29,020 For example, should we be deploying antiviral drugs in these situations? 488 00:59:29,020 --> 00:59:31,300 And how is how is that going to play out? 489 00:59:31,750 --> 00:59:41,320 Um, there are these fears, for example, around one of the drugs on the market at the moment which mutates the virus. 490 00:59:41,950 --> 00:59:47,800 Um, and certain people, for example, are concerned that this might actually increase the rate of emergence of variants. 491 00:59:47,810 --> 00:59:52,300 I'm less convinced of that. But, but understanding that is an interesting question. 492 00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:57,729 Yes, I see my comments on the press on that. So let's just name it because I can't remember. 493 00:59:57,730 --> 01:00:01,330 Can you read say Molnupiravir? Yeah, they've got these subtle flags. 494 01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:06,010 And so the idea is that it makes the virus mutates so much that it falls to bits essentially. 495 01:00:06,100 --> 01:00:18,850 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I, I, I some people are worried that imperfect applications of that might actually push the virus to, to evolve quicker. 496 01:00:19,540 --> 01:00:24,940 Um, I'm, I'm less convinced around that, but I can't rule it out. 497 01:00:25,300 --> 01:00:32,170 And in the long term immunocompromised patients, that might be a particular risk. 498 01:00:32,650 --> 01:00:40,270 So, so I think, um, studying, you know, sampling the virus over time in isolation, patients who, 499 01:00:40,270 --> 01:00:44,020 who are receiving that drug is going to be a really interesting research question. 500 01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:52,260 And finally, has your experience of Kobe changed your attitude or your approach to your work? 501 01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:55,580 The things you'd like to see change in the future. 502 01:00:59,020 --> 01:01:08,770 It certainly made me a lot more adaptable and trying to observe sort of lateral connections between different data streams. 503 01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:20,350 And, um, my, my research has always been a mix of hypothesis testing and hypothesis generating. 504 01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:29,940 And as an empiricist, I always felt a little bit guilty about the hypothesis generating aspects of the research. 505 01:01:30,020 --> 01:01:34,329 I think the fact that science is always a little sheepish about sort of saying, well, 506 01:01:34,330 --> 01:01:41,320 here's some data and here's some interesting hypotheses that this data might might suggest. 507 01:01:42,610 --> 01:01:52,299 And I think that kind of helps to take some of that guilt away and and sort of enable lateral thinking as long as you're 508 01:01:52,300 --> 01:01:58,960 explicit about it and unclear about the what's happening as a generational hypothesis rather than proposing a fact. 509 01:02:00,370 --> 01:02:06,430 And I think, you know, doing that in a more uninhibited way is is something that I can see happening and what I was.