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I'm not actually going to talk about the great diversity so much.

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I'm going to talk more about the great acceleration,

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which is actually the the great all economic growth in East Asia and parts of Southeast Asia in the second half of the 20th century.

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But I want to bring these two great grades and so are expressing what great acceleration means in the moment.

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But let me start with Ken Pomeranz is references to Core and North America.

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The Great Divergence debate had been primarily carried out in relation to the relative standard of living real wages, incomes and so on.

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But the other side of the Great Divergence is the the question of resources.

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But to go to resource for that bonanza, the great divergence also meant that there were actually several places in East Asia,

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South Asia, elsewhere where the growth of the market and division of labour had been reasonably in progress.

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And we can have a kind of Smithee on growth without mechanised industrial output.

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Why? And only in England, it diverged from this general pattern of Smith young growth.

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This is another way of putting the meaning to that issue of great divergence.

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In the meantime, we, as we have already heard East Asia and some Southeast Asian countries went through industrialisation beginning first in Japan.

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That 19th century.

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And the region, however, has been transformed into the fastest growing major user of energy resources by the second half of the 20th century.

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But they are an identifiable resource, enhancing root.

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If you were into Coren North America for Asia's economic development, but this is a question that I want to address.

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I think this presentation suggests that there was such a load for Japan in 1980 to 1930 and another

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much more comprehensive route for growth growth growth parts of Asia since 1960 to the present,

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I am going to talk a little bit about what the growth acceleration means in in in the first section of this presentation and then post two questions.

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The first one is how the organic economy shifted to the coal fossil fuel economy, and we compared England and Japan.

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And the second one is how the Basic Driver Library for the months in Asia, which was basically driven by water and food and energy provisions,

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was very rapidly replaced by the fossil fuel driven resource nexus in Asia for the last 70 years.

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And I think the speed of this being never seen in Europe.

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Now, the great acceleration had been coined by the Irish people,

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but I just cite international just fear if you have a programme when it ended in 2000 15 and depressed by a future us.

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It states that second half of the 20th century is unique in the history of human existence.

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Many human activities reached take off point sometime in the 20th century and sharply accelerated towards the end of the century.

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So the last 60 years, this since 2010,

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the statistics without doubt seeing the most profound transformation of the human relationship with the natural world in the history of mankind.

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As GDP compiled two sets of data socio economic indicators and Earth system trends, each with 12 indicators.

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It doesn't cover very well for historians, so this the graph can be very misleading.

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This is very often cited in the UN and future and global sustainability studies circles, and this is just nonsensical.

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It combines all of these, and you can see that they want to say that the greatest acceleration occurred around 1960 or so.

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And to prove that they had to go back to 1750 where you have there are some

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kind of expertise in the socio economic trends mainly consists of population,

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you know, GDP, urban population and particularly primary energy use.

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I am not going to be able to spend any more than this,

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and our system trends actually involves much more diverse actually indicators discover more recently by a scientists carbon dioxide, et cetera.

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And but in my two, my the best of my knowledge, no one actually calculated the share of Asia in that a great acceleration for the last 17 16 years.

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And a preliminary study suggests that roughly half of the increase not the proportion, but the increase since 1960 came from Asia.

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In terms of the first four basic socioeconomic indicators, a population are GDP, urban population and the primary energy supply.

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That is to say, the energy source change tradition and particularly urbanisation being amongst the main drivers of environmental intensification.

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Some of them, especially Asia's population proportion, you are primarily surprised.

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In 1960 was very low. We are very much driven by the biomass biomass energy, a lot of water and so forth, etc. Then it suddenly changed.

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So resource base had been changed to biomass energy, to fossil fuels.

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This is the one, and I think the proportion of Asian supply or consumption still remains less altogether,

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not a direct comparison between China and the United States. But the rate of increase in the more recent period is actually quite spectacular.

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And I think if you want to understand the future of resources, you really have to look at not just China, but growth parts of Asia.

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Did this exercise also reveals that socioeconomic trends are largely regionally identifiable?

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Were some of the Earth system trends indicate that, such as global warming in the UK does more globally oriented.

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So it's kind of difficult to disaggregate. But we it's not it's not impossible.

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And if we compare just trends with our system indicators, we find the two distinctive phases.

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And basically, this is what I would like to propose is just the until 1950 there was actually a global industrialisation,

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but it's it's pretty much driven by West and Western industrialisation, and this was replaced very clearly by West Asia Fusion.

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Now I'm going to do the first presentation that had been very decent.

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We've done it's it's completely new. You know this one, it's forward energy consumption in India.

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Waris has been cited by reality.

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It's a kind of energy consumption estimates in England and whereas 50 16 to 18 15 year long term trends with lots of estimates.

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But you know, the high organic economy that Wrigley had illustrated included use of animals and humans by firewood,

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et cetera, and this was embraced by coal. Now this is Japan.

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Japan was extremely forest rich, extremely scarce.

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This does not, I'm sorry to say, in good humour.

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So it doesn't talk about the industrial revolution. We don't have.

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We haven't actually managed to do include traditional water power wheels.

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We have a lot of water and they are not included.

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But on certain was also but the general trend is quite similar.

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You get much faster transition from firewood and charcoal to coal,

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initial stage of Japan's industrialisation and production of low tea being fuelled by timber.

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And this was quickly replaced by coal, and we had also exported quite a lot of coal and exports of manufactured goods to other Asian countries.

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Warfare by coal. So it's in terms of ecological footprint fashion.

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It's actually embodied. Core is embodied in its exports.

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So Japan benefit is just like in England,

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both from the domestic production of coal and imports of raw materials and food, raw cotton, those soybeans and sugar.

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Of course, colonial rule was kind of important.

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It's true in Taiwan, and I think Korea secured it.

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What it meant that Korean rice actually was in the water and land in these countries was embodied in the Japanese imports.

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But it also was perhaps more important in earlier period benefited.

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Japan benefited from imports from Western colonies in South and Southeast Asia, as well as from Manchuria.

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So this was age of imperialism, of free trade.

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And this was inter-regional trade that was equivalent to in North America for England.

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So we had corn and intra Asian trade instead of Korea and North America, both vertical and the expansion,

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which is called horizontal and the expansion access to Asian countries, made it possible for Japan to industrialise.

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So the final topic is about the transformation of the media.

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This is a much bigger and rougher picture. You probably have heard, how do you Osama's economic development in most of Asia?

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It described the socio ecological characteristics of Muslim Asia across South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia,

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in which water and air circulation through the use of resources intensive rice farming provided the population carrying capacity,

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which is why is a much larger population than Europe,

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which in turn offer the basis for the unlimited supplies of labour for industrialisation in a region model fashion.

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This did not easy bring the economic development with the rise of living standards, as we have heard.

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The breakthrough came from the globalisation of a resource base in the 1960s.

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First in Japan, followed by South Korea and Taiwan and eventually absorbed by China.

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So what is the equivalent to Korea, North Africa?

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I mean America here in the Far East Asian miracle, the second miracle story and I just base shifted from coal to oil pretty fast.

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The materials from cotton to Tim Cotton and timber and light industry labour intensive,

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industry based economic development was depressed to buy to steer on petroleum products.

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A man made fibre and plastic. Especially.

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So it looks like this in 1962, energy commission debate had completely changed course and began to depend on oil rather than on coal.

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Great divergence from the German policy at that time, we had completely independent of oil in the at the at the time of 1973 oil crisis,

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and then we started doing securing natural gas and a little bit of nuclear power and others before the green energy phase had started in this century.

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So we'll call it the oil transition was absolutely crucial for Asia's rapid industrialisation story.

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Traditional water energy nexus was pretty common in the more developed and populated part of Monson Asia.

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Sometimes people call it maritime monsoon India.

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The availability, timing and predictability of water largely determine the value of land in terms of how much food it produced.

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I hope that doesn't go. We elaborate on this same father they John.

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As far as energy is concerned, it was largely biomass energy.

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1952 two UN estimates actually quite clearly contrasts that Asia was primarily fuelled by biomass,

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while West and the United States and other places were ferried by coal or oil.

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The energy markets of timber and fossil fuels in Asia were integrated into the world economy only relatively recently and initially.

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The only reason I can elaborate this father, but I want.

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Thus, there was a lot of very autonomous local regional nexus,

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and this is the constraints of local resource that have been determined the course of parcel of economic

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development in the way that it promoted labour intensive rather than capital intensive industrialisation.

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Now, urbanisation and globalisation changed this completely.

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The global pattern of resource use emerged. So in Japan, the introduction of the seafront industrial complex around the Pacific course,

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there were four of them by the developmental state, combined imported oil and minerals with labour, water and domestic transport networks.

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So this is the first price where Molson Asia and Nexus had met the global resources oil from the Middle East, mere minerals from Australia, et cetera.

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National Development Plans elaborated multiple purpose domes where urban population was addressed by citizens, movements and local governments.

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This is the age where all of these pollution and it's very painful experience of diseases industrial pollution had occurred.

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Natural causes were repressed by Ukraine and Iran.

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The combination on the fusion of domestic and imported resources created synergies and trade offs, which is the subject of this recent.

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If we have an excess in water energy, food, nexus literature.

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How much? Oh, it's OK. This is Tokyo Bay.

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And if you can see that it's the most reclamation projects were connected to the development of

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industrial factories facing the bay after the so the red part is the reclaimed in between 1965 and 73.

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After the 1970s, the driver of the development shifted from economic knees to the more socially

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and environmentally acceptable gold reclamation of diverse purposes emerged.

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And now we have. We are proud of this doing new reclamation process with industrial waste, which has killed the two or three but birds in one stone.

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So this coincided with the broader ideological change from development, tourism to severe minimum and sustainability.

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But I have been studying the history of reclamation in China and many other places in South Korea and Taiwan here in Tokyo.

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Is this absurd, you know, natural course to accept this kind of tourist success?

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But China is this terrible accident.

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It's actually going much, much more seriously, and it's nothing to do with the uncertainties in general.

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It's a kind of development similar way to try and effectively combine imported

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resources from all over the world with very expensive but effective land,

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which connects residential areas and industrial areas, as well as the third tertiary sector areas.

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And this, you know, the Chinese had three major operations there.

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They are much bigger than Japan in each of them. So you can you can actually imagine how big it is.

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Now, to sum up, the you know, the water energy nexus in Monson Asia actually provided population carrying capacity in much of this area,

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more than to the already 19th century dominance of Asia in terms of relatives here in our GDP.

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And it goes down and it comes back with transformation of fossil fuels.

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So after 1950, India emerged as the driving force of the rise in real GDP on primary energy use,

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and now it is also a hotspot of global environmental problems.

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So coal in North America was replaced by fossil fuels and global exploitation of domestic resources.

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So the global exploitation of domestic resources became much tougher and severe and penetrating all over the world,

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particularly in the developing countries of Asia and Africa and elsewhere.

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Local and regional past faced tougher challenges,

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even compared to 1960s Japan to make themselves sustainable, reflecting the greater forces of capitalism.

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Thank you.