1 00:00:06,590 --> 00:00:10,070 Good afternoon, welcome to the Oxford Martin School. My name's Charles, go free. 2 00:00:10,070 --> 00:00:18,620 I'm the director. And it's my great pleasure to welcome you to another in our series of talks on the evolving economic thought, 3 00:00:18,620 --> 00:00:22,790 and I'll speak this evening is Danny Dorling, Professor Danny Dorling, 4 00:00:22,790 --> 00:00:28,250 who is a Harvard McIndoe Professor of geography at the School of Geography here. 5 00:00:28,250 --> 00:00:33,020 And Danny has been in Oxford since 2013. 6 00:00:33,020 --> 00:00:38,480 Grew up in Oxford. And before that was at Sheffield for 10 years. 7 00:00:38,480 --> 00:00:41,420 And then he works on a huge number of different things. 8 00:00:41,420 --> 00:00:49,040 But issues around social inequality, housing, health, employment, education, poverty and many other things. 9 00:00:49,040 --> 00:01:07,140 He also co-founded the internet based World Map, a project that is talking this afternoon on as a human species slowing that day coming of CO2. 10 00:01:07,140 --> 00:01:12,330 Well, thank you for coming. It's a very elegant title. 11 00:01:12,330 --> 00:01:15,120 You're not going to get the answer the next 40 minutes, 12 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:22,710 but the least I can promise you it won't be longer than 40 minutes because I'm interested in what you've got to say. 13 00:01:22,710 --> 00:01:26,160 It's a book I've been working on on and off for six years. This is not quite finished. 14 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:37,440 I'm four weeks away from the end of it, so you can absolutely wreck my next four weeks if you point out the fundamental problem. 15 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:46,890 And I'm going to talk to you a lot about demography because this is where I will show and I'm far from the first person to point this out. 16 00:01:46,890 --> 00:01:53,900 And Will Baker and John Ibbetson have done very well in the book, which has been published Nameless Languages Around the world. 17 00:01:53,900 --> 00:02:00,600 January February this year and titled Empty Planet about demographic slowing. 18 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:06,390 And if it wasn't for demographic slowing, I wouldn't be talking about this. 19 00:02:06,390 --> 00:02:14,820 What I do is collect data, lots of data data on almost everything I can measure and slow down. 20 00:02:14,820 --> 00:02:24,480 It's very, very simple. I work out the speed at which is changing, and I find it slowing down almost everything that you can measure. 21 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:29,460 And this is the problem because my worry is that there are things you can't measure which is speeding up. 22 00:02:29,460 --> 00:02:34,300 But with you, measure appears at the moment to be slowing. 23 00:02:34,300 --> 00:02:44,610 And the question is, if that's true, what what does it tell us? This man Charles Darwin. 24 00:02:44,610 --> 00:02:52,830 Amazingly, the origin of species described a population explosion. 25 00:02:52,830 --> 00:02:53,370 He was talking, 26 00:02:53,370 --> 00:03:02,820 I think about elephants and talking about what happened when there were a few favourable seasons and foodstuff was plentiful and so on. 27 00:03:02,820 --> 00:03:08,560 And how the size of a population could suddenly explode. 28 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:14,400 And the irony was that he was watching this just as this thing began for his own species he wasn't aware of. 29 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,440 It was beginning for human beings. 30 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:27,030 But we've had a population explosion that I'm sure you're aware of, and now it's it's been slowing down for some time. 31 00:03:27,030 --> 00:03:33,120 The only thing which is still rising and not slowing down that I could measure 32 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:38,370 and you can certainly is the wonderful day out there is the temperature. 33 00:03:38,370 --> 00:03:47,820 The surface temperature of the planet is not advancing because it's actually rising at a slightly accelerating rate, which obviously occupies here. 34 00:03:47,820 --> 00:03:53,580 Lots of other things are going up, but they're not going up as fast as they were. 35 00:03:53,580 --> 00:04:01,990 Here's the basic graph This is a book I wrote six years ago called Population 10 billion. 36 00:04:01,990 --> 00:04:10,330 And this is a graph of the first derivative, which just means to change its global population. 37 00:04:10,330 --> 00:04:17,950 It was rising 1820s 1930s 1940s by less than half a percent that fall. 38 00:04:17,950 --> 00:04:30,040 By the way, that slowdown in the rate of growth was associated with what happens when we and others went into Africa. 39 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:39,490 The acceleration globally begins around about 1850. By 1910, you've got world population growing at one percent a year. 40 00:04:39,490 --> 00:04:44,030 The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse intervene at various points. 41 00:04:44,030 --> 00:04:48,730 A pandemic more important than the First World War was tiny. From a global point of view. 42 00:04:48,730 --> 00:04:57,640 It wasn't really a world war, but it was much bigger the flu pandemic in 1919, you could see the effect the Second World War, 43 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:04,540 much bigger World War, the soldiers return and also, crucially at the time of this World War. 44 00:05:04,540 --> 00:05:14,200 Shortly afterwards, India gets independence. Enormous disruption in India, millions of people forced to move between Pakistan and India. 45 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,810 China has a revolution. 46 00:05:16,810 --> 00:05:26,530 And while population growth quickly moves up to over two percent a year, two percent a year, the 1960s was obviously unsustainable, 47 00:05:26,530 --> 00:05:34,270 obvious only to a few statisticians and a lovely mathematician who will tell that in just a couple of hundred years, 48 00:05:34,270 --> 00:05:45,400 the entire planet will be receiving massive bodies if it were to continue peaks sometime between 1968 and 1971, and then the rate begins to go down. 49 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:50,120 You only seen the beginning of the to go down there because this book was published six years ago. 50 00:05:50,120 --> 00:06:02,170 The date was that the little blip that kind of spikes what looks like a heart attack towards the end was principally the East African famine. 51 00:06:02,170 --> 00:06:07,810 Whenever things go bad for human beings, we have more babies anyway. 52 00:06:07,810 --> 00:06:15,580 This is old news. These are the rates of growth of different continents. 53 00:06:15,580 --> 00:06:25,060 And again, this is what we knew at about 2013 and what we or more appropriately, the UN thought was going to happen. 54 00:06:25,060 --> 00:06:30,120 And all the continents Africa heading towards that same old line. 55 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:39,360 It's a slow down. Africa's a really interesting one. 56 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:46,440 Paper came out in February of this year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 57 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:55,320 which is one of the first papers I've seen has helped explain partly why fertility decline in Africa wasn't as fast as in other continents. 58 00:06:55,320 --> 00:07:01,050 And it's very crude, to put it. I'll tell you it just in a nutshell, 59 00:07:01,050 --> 00:07:08,730 it is possible that the intervention of the IMF and the World Bank and structural adjustment had an effect in Africa in the 80s and 90s, 60 00:07:08,730 --> 00:07:16,440 and more recently, that meant that girls education was damaged by what happens on the continent. 61 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:20,070 And women, young women had more babies, and now that has ended. 62 00:07:20,070 --> 00:07:28,080 We have a fertility decline acceleration. But if anybody wants to complain about the number of people on the continent of Africa, 63 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:33,030 we need to think very carefully about what was it that happened in the 80s and 90s. 64 00:07:33,030 --> 00:07:37,140 But they can't do that. They may have had an effect, but that's the reference. 65 00:07:37,140 --> 00:07:41,370 I'm going to go for these lines very quickly, not least because this is recorded. 66 00:07:41,370 --> 00:07:44,430 So if you're fascinated by this, you've got a chance to look back. 67 00:07:44,430 --> 00:07:51,060 And also, most of you will not find most of these slides interesting, and I have too many slides. 68 00:07:51,060 --> 00:07:56,400 This is the second derivative of change. Apologies if you don't know what it will do to change it. 69 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:04,140 This is a changing change from the UN projections, and these were the UN projections as of 2011. 70 00:08:04,140 --> 00:08:09,480 And you have reality up until about 2011 and then you have the projections going forward. 71 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:16,390 Clearly, that isn't going to happen. So suddenly, can they go smooth? But demographers can't really be less exciting. 72 00:08:16,390 --> 00:08:27,330 Well, times it is true that this is six years ago, one that I thought that because I think what we're looking at is a series of population booms. 73 00:08:27,330 --> 00:08:33,210 The gap between those peaks was 18 years, then twenty one years human beings and not elephants. 74 00:08:33,210 --> 00:08:42,450 We're not flurries. We do things we used to do worldwide every 18 years now, every 21 years we do it in this country, every 31 years now. 75 00:08:42,450 --> 00:08:45,690 You can make it look more sophisticated if you just copy the pattern for the 76 00:08:45,690 --> 00:08:52,680 past or months and you end up with a planet at 9.3 million people by 2060. 77 00:08:52,680 --> 00:08:58,520 I hit this 300 pages into that book. So that they will criticise me. 78 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:03,680 I'm just pointing out now because it's kind of becoming more accepted that we may not 79 00:09:03,680 --> 00:09:08,240 get to the current U.N. projections eleven point two billion by the end of the century, 80 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:12,170 the U.N. will revise this year, possibly as early as the end of June. 81 00:09:12,170 --> 00:09:18,820 That projection name I it every two years, it'll come down from eleven point two billion and people are going to ask why. 82 00:09:18,820 --> 00:09:24,620 Part of the reason why is it should never have gone up to eleven point two billion. 83 00:09:24,620 --> 00:09:29,600 Here's a graph again. But now with the actual population on it. 84 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:34,400 And so they were saying 10 billion on the day. 85 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,420 I think of the publication of that book called Population 10 billion. 86 00:09:38,420 --> 00:09:46,490 The United Nations demographer announced they thought it was going to be 11 just to annoy me, which is why I'm kind of happy it's going down. 87 00:09:46,490 --> 00:09:52,700 I think in this graph, I'm just trying to show you these things. This is GDP falling everywhere. 88 00:09:52,700 --> 00:09:55,550 We kind of knew we've known this for two or three decades, 89 00:09:55,550 --> 00:10:04,130 but those darker cells are parts of the world, and the rate of GDP growth not going up is slowing down. 90 00:10:04,130 --> 00:10:08,120 Mobile weaver Stuart Little [INAUDIBLE] of this manor, 91 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:15,620 formerly we wrote in 2018 a more detailed book about demography, fertility and everything that's going on. 92 00:10:15,620 --> 00:10:26,660 I'm going to get off demography them in a minute. The graphs get more complicated, but the new graphs allow sixty five of them. 93 00:10:26,660 --> 00:10:34,640 I negotiate graphs when I do book contracts. Both advances a face portrays face portraits. 94 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:38,690 How many people know what a face portrait is? Phew. 95 00:10:38,690 --> 00:10:43,160 Great. Okay, we got a smattering there. 96 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,970 You've got a picture of a pendulum goes from side to side. 97 00:10:46,970 --> 00:10:52,400 In the middle, you've got a graph over time that you're used to, and it's showing the position of the pendulum. 98 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:58,490 It goes to one side and the other side is showing the velocity where the pensioners lie to one side to floss. 99 00:10:58,490 --> 00:11:07,130 It goes to zero when it's in the middle of the velocities of the maximum, it slows down, so the velocity in the position are doing different things. 100 00:11:07,130 --> 00:11:16,000 If you put velocity on one axis and position on another, you get the phase diagram and you're about to see. 101 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:20,140 Probably about 40, five thousand comes very, very quickly. OK. 102 00:11:20,140 --> 00:11:26,440 Remember, the title of this lecture series is evolving economic fault and the this is evolving. 103 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:32,830 Here's a really simple one if you don't get this, I'm afraid the next half of that was going to be a baseball for you. 104 00:11:32,830 --> 00:11:37,570 This is a country which has 100 million people in 1950. 105 00:11:37,570 --> 00:11:46,000 It is growing at a rate of two percent two percent every year since 1950, one has 102 million. 106 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:53,170 Along the x axis is the absolute increase in people along the y axis is the total number of people, 107 00:11:53,170 --> 00:11:58,390 and you'll see that by 1995 he's got 200 million, but two thousand six is called 300 million. 108 00:11:58,390 --> 00:12:02,920 By 2020 is getting faster. It's called for an immediate. 109 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:12,160 So one of these diagrams, that's what an acceleration of growth looks like two percent growth a year. 110 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:17,290 And that's a quote from Darwin. And it was recorded cases of the astonishing rapid increase in various animals, 111 00:12:17,290 --> 00:12:26,830 the nature when circumstances have been favourable to them during two or three following seasons. 112 00:12:26,830 --> 00:12:37,930 Here is a slowdown. And again, we're starting with 100 million people in 1950, and again we're starting with a two percent population growth rate. 113 00:12:37,930 --> 00:12:46,750 But every year we're going to take that 1.4 percent. So in 1951, it drops to 1.9 1950 to just one point eight percent and so on. 114 00:12:46,750 --> 00:12:52,480 By 1970, you've got zero growth. So it's back on the middle of the axis. 115 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:59,830 And then is this a bit like the the book Children of Men? You kind of you for the film if you see that we're heading down towards zero? 116 00:12:59,830 --> 00:13:10,330 That's what a rapid deceleration of the questions later becomes a pointer, a curve the province's two screens because, 117 00:13:10,330 --> 00:13:14,950 oh, I can't, because I've got too many graphs, so I'll never get to the end. 118 00:13:14,950 --> 00:13:20,500 This is not a well-honed presentation. This is in the middle of thinking. 119 00:13:20,500 --> 00:13:26,050 This is what stability looks like for those of you who basically think it's a miraculous spiral. 120 00:13:26,050 --> 00:13:32,980 This one is oscillating at around every thirty one years, but one point four one five nine, 121 00:13:32,980 --> 00:13:43,180 which you may recognise, also happens to be the average age at which Europeans are having their babies that spiral. 122 00:13:43,180 --> 00:13:53,850 On a normal graph, looks like that, and I've written the kind of Daily Mail story about the terrible population increase and decline that that is. 123 00:13:53,850 --> 00:13:59,560 And let's get towards the real data. This is babies in the world. 124 00:13:59,560 --> 00:14:07,480 Those of you who like Hans Rosling, what he used to do remember Hans falsely talking about Big Baby in 1990 is almost correct. 125 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:12,580 He was almost correct in 2015 with just most of 1990, 126 00:14:12,580 --> 00:14:22,750 but is absolutely going to go going to go down like some things which are not population are going to get loads of population later. 127 00:14:22,750 --> 00:14:26,020 But the reason I'm excited about this is like trying to write the chapter for this 128 00:14:26,020 --> 00:14:31,870 book about things that are still speeding up and they were all slowing down. 129 00:14:31,870 --> 00:14:37,590 And when that happens is when it's wet, when you get what you don't expect to get. 130 00:14:37,590 --> 00:14:44,440 You begin to think, Well, something's going on here. So you have to meet the y axis and what these graphs are. 131 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:53,320 The first, these two classes total United States student debt. It is still rising by about 2012. 132 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:59,260 It's past the trillion mark. It is currently at the 1.5 trillion dollar mark. 133 00:14:59,260 --> 00:15:05,470 But the point is that depends how you can see it. It was accelerating up to 2009. 134 00:15:05,470 --> 00:15:09,050 Can you see it's the graph is kind of leading the other way? 135 00:15:09,050 --> 00:15:17,020 Well, this is one of these talks where I'm going to try to convince you that still rising, but it's slowing down. 136 00:15:17,020 --> 00:15:24,220 It peaks every October because that's when you turn up in college full of hope and move your enormous debt in the United States. 137 00:15:24,220 --> 00:15:32,980 The second graph is the total car loan that the United States, which of course, crashed in 2008 with the financial crash. 138 00:15:32,980 --> 00:15:42,430 The car companies were not car companies, they were that companies, which just kind of that companies with an automobile attached to them. 139 00:15:42,430 --> 00:15:56,410 But again, you can see a 2018 quarter for we will not see very life for the amount of money that Americans are going to buy that cars mortgage debt. 140 00:15:56,410 --> 00:16:02,170 OK, still completely in the doldrums. But let's show you later some some UK data on that. 141 00:16:02,170 --> 00:16:10,600 Total US public debt and there may be. You have to be a bit hopeful to kind of see the thing veering toward zero. 142 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:19,210 So is that still visible, bouncing more slowly? It cannot carry on going up forever. 143 00:16:19,210 --> 00:16:27,310 At some point, the Chinese will stop sending ravaging refrigerators and the Americans will not be able to issue that to buy them. 144 00:16:27,310 --> 00:16:32,860 The question is when? How fast? Wikipedia. 145 00:16:32,860 --> 00:16:44,590 Wikipedia begins well, about 2001. The number of articles accelerate and accelerate to maximum acceleration in 2007 because 146 00:16:44,590 --> 00:16:51,130 there's a limit to how many things you can describe that it's actually worth doing. 147 00:16:51,130 --> 00:16:58,150 And it carries on rising but at a slower rate. 2008 2009 10 to 11 12, 2014. 148 00:16:58,150 --> 00:17:01,510 Somebody has a for the idea of inventing stops, 149 00:17:01,510 --> 00:17:09,100 and then you invited on Wikipedia to actually write another definition of something and that managed to get a little bit of acceleration. 150 00:17:09,100 --> 00:17:12,790 2015. Let's slow it down again. 151 00:17:12,790 --> 00:17:20,710 There's a limited number of things trying to get lots more data about the total size of the cloud, all these kinds of things. 152 00:17:20,710 --> 00:17:25,690 For every one of these graphs, I'm getting another 10 or 12 datasets to kind of confirm. 153 00:17:25,690 --> 00:17:30,680 I should say I think it's 48. The Max Roser who's based in this place. 154 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,660 This data is unbelievable, and he gets data for people. 155 00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:43,840 This graph of a dramatic slide that his book production in the Netherlands, but we have the check book production in every country. 156 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,280 Of course, book production is slowing down. There are lovely stories with these graphs. 157 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:53,050 I have a feeling that book production was at its maximum acceleration in the 70s, 158 00:17:53,050 --> 00:17:58,660 1970s and 80s because you showed off by how many books you have in your house. 159 00:17:58,660 --> 00:18:05,860 You couldn't possibly read them all. And then other things come along and it does that. 160 00:18:05,860 --> 00:18:11,380 And the lovely thing about this data centre actually begins at the time of the printing press is you can actually 161 00:18:11,380 --> 00:18:17,320 see when people decide to burn books because publishers get a bit reticent to publish in the years immediately. 162 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:23,650 After all, the books are piled up outside the cathedral and burned for heresy. 163 00:18:23,650 --> 00:18:32,790 So, OK, things which are not slowing down climate change as the hallmark kindly produce this graph. 164 00:18:32,790 --> 00:18:42,790 This particular illustration what is a gigaton? It's a billion metric tons because we have been talking about billions of tons of CO2. 165 00:18:42,790 --> 00:18:50,390 Is equal to 100 million. I think it's African elephants, the decaying carcases of six million blue whales. 166 00:18:50,390 --> 00:19:00,910 It's the big numbers here since 1750 are the estimates of the rise in CO2 emissions over time. 167 00:19:00,910 --> 00:19:09,240 And I will ignore the old data of those fascinating and I'll just look at the graph from 1960 onwards. 168 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:15,520 And the problem is that for most of the time, it's on the accelerating side. 169 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:26,380 It's going up from 10 billion tonnes in 1960 to 20 million tonnes by 1979 to over 35 billion tonnes a year. 170 00:19:26,380 --> 00:19:28,960 Now worldwide being admitted, 171 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:39,070 CO2 via Kyoto and Paris agreements look a bit miserable on this graph because I do wonder whether governments kind of think, 172 00:19:39,070 --> 00:19:48,210 How can we do a great thing? We came together in the May Day agreement because after each one, there's actually an acceleration of pollution. 173 00:19:48,210 --> 00:19:51,490 And currently we're at an acceleration. 174 00:19:51,490 --> 00:20:01,660 The good news in this desperately sad Typekit this is is that the doubling time of worldwide CO2 emissions has gone from 22 years, 175 00:20:01,660 --> 00:20:09,580 doubling every 22 years to 23. I mean, it's pathetic, and for something to hang on to is not great, 176 00:20:09,580 --> 00:20:15,130 and we're all going to this game over if we don't do something dramatic with that. 177 00:20:15,130 --> 00:20:20,190 So, yes, emissions are still going up. Ridiculously, this is what the graph looks like with this one. 178 00:20:20,190 --> 00:20:25,030 Normally, in case you're wondering, why is he playing with these weird graphs? 179 00:20:25,030 --> 00:20:31,340 Slightly the same data, you should find a traditional graph very, very easy to understand. 180 00:20:31,340 --> 00:20:38,560 The problem with the traditional graph is it hides all the really exciting thing, which is is it going up fast or slow? 181 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:47,860 It is going up before in a tiny amount of space. The graph was what the graph, the iPhone, which physicists tool and so on. 182 00:20:47,860 --> 00:20:54,220 And I'll end by showing the social scientists in Japan have been doing this for over 20 years since we were a bit slow. 183 00:20:54,220 --> 00:20:57,490 What the graph, which shows the rate of change, as well as the absolute amount this is, 184 00:20:57,490 --> 00:21:07,840 is put all the emphasis on the direction to try and give you give you a clean temperature. 185 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,780 It will get simpler in a minute. 186 00:21:10,780 --> 00:21:20,440 Three different time series of temperature one is the national space contact series The Office, the Met Office adjusted series. 187 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:28,240 It depends on the data point. So one of them is comparing to the 1951 2018 average, where we are almost one degree over it. 188 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:39,280 The average is comparing to May not 1961 2019, nor will it be much more in the area because the normal claims now for all the 2018. 189 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:45,140 Points are worrying because it's accelerating, not just going up. 190 00:21:45,140 --> 00:21:52,540 It's actually over there on the side, but have a look back at 2000 like 1990 1992. 191 00:21:52,540 --> 00:22:00,400 Global recessions are the best thing you can hope for if I see not seeing a rise in CO2 emissions. 192 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:07,720 The last graph I have a dear old friend who doesn't believe in climate change. 193 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:13,720 He sent me this data and this data comes from the satellite estimates. 194 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:22,000 And he begins in 1979 and it's all over the place so you can look at us as they called it, that's a bit warming. 195 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:26,310 I'm now going to show you to the normal graph. 196 00:22:26,310 --> 00:22:34,080 So somebody who doesn't believe in climate change said to me that data need to alter the normal refugee gut, huh? 197 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:38,940 It's heating up, isn't it? So why does it look like a mess on the graphite tool? 198 00:22:38,940 --> 00:22:47,580 It's like listening data. Because of things like 1998, something went wrong in the ratings for the satellites in 1998. 199 00:22:47,580 --> 00:22:55,500 And if you draw the rate of change, it really highlights that 1998 is very, very exciting. 200 00:22:55,500 --> 00:23:04,610 But even the data, the people who tell you that climate change isn't happening shows that climate change is happening. 201 00:23:04,610 --> 00:23:12,260 People, I'm going to show you quite a lot now about numbers of people, the numbers of babies, because this is very recent and I think interesting. 202 00:23:12,260 --> 00:23:15,590 This is the lot is wearing a Superman cape. 203 00:23:15,590 --> 00:23:23,810 Give it to him by students from the University of Sheffield when they were visiting the refugee camp in Lesbos a few years ago, 204 00:23:23,810 --> 00:23:29,830 worrying about numbers of people. Here's the global figures. 205 00:23:29,830 --> 00:23:37,390 The current latest UN figures on total world population amount about 1930, 206 00:23:37,390 --> 00:23:44,890 you've got two billion roundabout, now you've got heading towards eight million. 207 00:23:44,890 --> 00:23:51,070 And the projections this is the current projections, not the ones we should expect to get soon. 208 00:23:51,070 --> 00:23:58,570 Show it peaking shortly after 21:00. That's a slowdown that's well known. 209 00:23:58,570 --> 00:24:03,670 The exciting thing is just is it going to slow down faster than that or not? 210 00:24:03,670 --> 00:24:09,550 The other graph you can see there is exactly the same data, but with two long scales, 211 00:24:09,550 --> 00:24:16,630 which helps you visualise that turning up in the Americas with your disease is it's devastating. 212 00:24:16,630 --> 00:24:21,460 Going into Africa with your wonderful civilisation is devastating. 213 00:24:21,460 --> 00:24:34,510 And what's great at the moment, the current slowdown is not about disease or war or slavery, it's about women saying no to men. 214 00:24:34,510 --> 00:24:40,510 To put it quite crudely, the United States. 215 00:24:40,510 --> 00:24:41,950 So we've drawn a wall. 216 00:24:41,950 --> 00:24:47,980 We try to make these diagrams a bit more exciting because although all of you are loving the fact that you have to see all these graphs, 217 00:24:47,980 --> 00:24:54,730 but you know, every graph you put into a book, you have no sales. 218 00:24:54,730 --> 00:24:59,650 As the United States, it's slowing down quite slowly. 219 00:24:59,650 --> 00:25:05,920 Is China. And of course, China is slowing down dramatically quickly. 220 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:11,290 Not just because of the one-child policy. It will slow down well before that. 221 00:25:11,290 --> 00:25:15,310 That's the one child policy. And hey, people have got used to having one child. 222 00:25:15,310 --> 00:25:19,360 It turns out Africa. 223 00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:27,130 The whole of Africa, three to this one goes from well over a billion now to, in theory, 224 00:25:27,130 --> 00:25:36,070 well over four billion by the end of this century, but probably not given what we know most recently. 225 00:25:36,070 --> 00:25:44,740 And next to Africa, I put the piddling, dramatically unimportant British Isles just in case you're interested if you wanted the wine, by the way. 226 00:25:44,740 --> 00:25:50,980 It really matters what we did to Ireland in the 1840s. 227 00:25:50,980 --> 00:25:55,870 Just have a look at that. It's the British Isles, including Ireland. 228 00:25:55,870 --> 00:26:02,800 Alternatively, if you want to know whether our invitation in 2003, we're going to do these invitations. 229 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,910 Enoch Powell, whether this is the Caribbean and to India in the 1960s, please come. 230 00:26:06,910 --> 00:26:11,710 We need you to fast and pray. We issued an invitation to Eastern Europe. 231 00:26:11,710 --> 00:26:16,150 And we said, Please, can you come? We need you. It's called opening up to the AITORNEY. 232 00:26:16,150 --> 00:26:21,520 They came and we did it again. And OK, it's a big spike. 233 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:27,460 We were lucky to get it. It's going now. They're not coming anymore. That's where we're heading. 234 00:26:27,460 --> 00:26:36,010 We have everything the whole country does is of relative importance in this world, India. 235 00:26:36,010 --> 00:26:40,570 And these are the estimates who knew in India before the UN revises its figures, 236 00:26:40,570 --> 00:26:48,660 which will be an even faster slowdown that is peaking at two thousand sixty four. 237 00:26:48,660 --> 00:26:58,890 Japan, a small country, and I had just had so many things and it had in population slowdown. 238 00:26:58,890 --> 00:27:02,510 All the text is there for anybody who's completely fascinated, 239 00:27:02,510 --> 00:27:10,370 but every week on these is a story that there's a story about a war or an embargo or something else. 240 00:27:10,370 --> 00:27:16,670 This is the rest of Europe, Asia, so the rest of Europe and Asia, but taking out China, Japan and India because of what he said. 241 00:27:16,670 --> 00:27:27,790 And again, slowing down very rapidly. Oceania is mainly Australia and New Zealand and slowing down. 242 00:27:27,790 --> 00:27:34,300 The US, again, I'm sorry, no, the Americans without the US say first, 243 00:27:34,300 --> 00:27:39,460 the Americans without the US is slowing down faster than the USA and put the USA back up. 244 00:27:39,460 --> 00:27:44,650 That's equal. Compare. It's stunning. This is total population. 245 00:27:44,650 --> 00:27:49,930 These figures have been out for years now, so not really showing anything that's exciting. 246 00:27:49,930 --> 00:27:59,440 Hopefully, speed up and go on to that babies. This is total fertility rates which have their issues because sometimes people have their babies. 247 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:04,090 Early and later we put some birds on is a stork. 248 00:28:04,090 --> 00:28:09,640 As I go through this, the birds will change the national bird of each country. 249 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:16,150 I'm trying to be sort of less US centric, but anyway. 250 00:28:16,150 --> 00:28:21,850 1960 in the world, the average woman was having five children. 251 00:28:21,850 --> 00:28:27,940 Barring slow down comes in fast as deceleration in the 60s to the 70s. 252 00:28:27,940 --> 00:28:32,800 By 1976, you dropped to four, by 1963, 12 to 16. 253 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:39,640 We're looking at around about a point for the second graph here, zooming in on these last few years. 254 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:50,080 And the really exciting thing is 2014 15 or 16, which is the latest year for which we can get what we think is accurate data. 255 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:57,700 And it's moved away from the excess, which means that the rate of slowed down off fertility is accelerating, 256 00:28:57,700 --> 00:29:04,810 so it's going down even faster than before. You may think I'm obsessed by this line, though I am a bit obsessive. 257 00:29:04,810 --> 00:29:14,980 But tiny changes in the middle of this graph alters the population at the end of this century, just 81 years by a billion billion and a half people. 258 00:29:14,980 --> 00:29:29,200 And it is much easier to have a happier world, I suspect, with fewer people voting for the United States. 259 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,650 Well, over three and a half children in the 1960s, 260 00:29:32,650 --> 00:29:41,800 the pill comes along magical thing seam down and down and down and then kind of get locked in that the spa spot with a man about two children. 261 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:46,750 The US has the highest fertility of the rich world, so imagine again if you kind of obsessive about it. 262 00:29:46,750 --> 00:29:54,550 But just look at 2016 with down to below 0.8, what's going on in the US right now? 263 00:29:54,550 --> 00:30:02,510 That's why I made the last abortion clinic illegal in a particular state. 264 00:30:02,510 --> 00:30:11,810 I look at generations, this why I show you this just to break up the graphs, but you're going to get some more graphs in the minute. 265 00:30:11,810 --> 00:30:19,190 If you want to consider the speed of change of these things, you've got to not think in decades, but think of generations. 266 00:30:19,190 --> 00:30:21,770 Things really, really change over generations. 267 00:30:21,770 --> 00:30:30,830 This is my best estimate to actually put some limits on generations based on the life table and fertility vehicles in England. 268 00:30:30,830 --> 00:30:40,730 This is what had the audience. So if you were born between 1991 and 1928 inclusive, your generation of fee, generation fee, 269 00:30:40,730 --> 00:30:57,980 people know if you were born between 1929 and 1955 inclusive, your generation and generation ws consigli know well done. 270 00:30:57,980 --> 00:31:03,900 If you're born between 1956 and 1991, I quote Youth Generation X earlier before I'm Generation X. 271 00:31:03,900 --> 00:31:10,730 Well, then between 1992 and 2011, your Generation Y Williams. 272 00:31:10,730 --> 00:31:16,040 Thank you. And I guess we don't have any sense 2012. 273 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:24,780 I'm estimating 2014. Anyway, I do a lot about trying to look at those generations. 274 00:31:24,780 --> 00:31:29,850 The first two generations saw the first chapter survive in the fields. 275 00:31:29,850 --> 00:31:33,900 You'd be amazed at the Chinese, this happened over these five generations. 276 00:31:33,900 --> 00:31:39,310 These five generations have seen change that five generations have never seen before human beings. 277 00:31:39,310 --> 00:31:46,590 They've been single generations that have seen the Black Death life or the plague or an earthquake wipe out Lisbon. 278 00:31:46,590 --> 00:31:53,460 That's the single generation. These five generations have seen absolutely everything altered out of again so that 279 00:31:53,460 --> 00:31:59,190 your fundamental beliefs about the world have changed for the next generation. 280 00:31:59,190 --> 00:32:00,840 Go into thinking you're going to burn in [INAUDIBLE]. 281 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:10,230 If you say a naughty word food to believing that available to me, the are going to take over is incredibly fast. 282 00:32:10,230 --> 00:32:18,450 I go back to generation and one you can take generations back before 10 66 anyway, early on. 283 00:32:18,450 --> 00:32:25,470 Just just to give you a sense of the speed of change. The biggest change happened for Queen Elizabeth generation. 284 00:32:25,470 --> 00:32:34,370 The really big one electricity coming everywhere. Sewage systems just proliferating. 285 00:32:34,370 --> 00:32:40,400 My generation, not much change, and I know this is not what the common narrative is. 286 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,300 I fly in 747s a 747. 287 00:32:44,300 --> 00:32:51,110 Firstly, when I was born, I'm 51 years old. I used a Windows computer as a teenager. 288 00:32:51,110 --> 00:32:58,550 This system produced by ACORN. I'm geeky. I still use a Windows computer system. 289 00:32:58,550 --> 00:33:02,600 It is the kind of the lifeblood of universities to pretend. 290 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:10,880 Yes, to pretend that we are constantly making new discoveries and you never know what graphene is going to do next door. 291 00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:24,830 I was a big thing in 1968. I had a lot of I in my thesis in Nineteen Ninety One about how it wasn't working. 292 00:33:24,830 --> 00:33:32,570 I think the conditions got really good Catholic condition allows you to see faces that allows you to translate. 293 00:33:32,570 --> 00:33:39,770 People talk about lawyers losing their jobs because of artificial intelligence. That might be why lawyers lose their jobs to accountants. 294 00:33:39,770 --> 00:33:46,120 By some estimates, we have more lawyers and accountants working in this country than the whole of the rest of the continent combined. 295 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:52,730 You know, if you don't want to have lots of lawyers and accountants and ways to do it without AI, 296 00:33:52,730 --> 00:33:59,810 and you've got to ask why on earth would you create an increase in AI on America, by the way basis? 297 00:33:59,810 --> 00:34:03,680 So I'm an AI sceptic. I know I'm probably the one place to say it. 298 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:10,190 You know, prove me wrong. Maybe I'm just old warcraft's. Let's do more more for these birds. 299 00:34:10,190 --> 00:34:18,680 China has the Chinese data, and it is dramatic and has a huge effect on the world picture. 300 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:34,350 Zooming in to the most recent years, very tiny lies 1.6 children per woman to 1.6 one 1.6 to the polls of 2017 2018. 301 00:34:34,350 --> 00:34:39,170 The final slide that we can. But you know the Chinese is slowing down. 302 00:34:39,170 --> 00:34:45,920 Well, you may not know is if we take the countries of the world with the highest fertility rates in each continent is dramatic. 303 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:55,790 This is Niger, the highest fertility rate in Africa. Look at what is thought to have happened between 2000 and 2016 in Niger. 304 00:34:55,790 --> 00:35:00,710 And that's the covered area with the highest fertility rate, I think, in the world. 305 00:35:00,710 --> 00:35:07,870 East Timor. The about this being invaded by another country is biathletes. 306 00:35:07,870 --> 00:35:13,600 You really want to avoid wars and pandemics and so on. 307 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:20,380 But even East Timor now is heading below 5.5 and plummeting down. 308 00:35:20,380 --> 00:35:27,340 Guatemala, the country itself, a man with the highest fertility rates at the moment of only three children a woman. 309 00:35:27,340 --> 00:35:32,710 Even with wars, terrorism and selection the United States. 310 00:35:32,710 --> 00:35:40,030 Even then, he managed to get slow down. Haiti crisis facility rates in the Caribbean and again, 311 00:35:40,030 --> 00:35:46,150 sometimes when these patterns of taste may be suggested, the estimates are a bit dodgy, I suspect. 312 00:35:46,150 --> 00:35:53,800 But you never know. It's hard to know, but Haiti heading rapidly down towards just two children. 313 00:35:53,800 --> 00:36:02,580 Fertility across the whole Caribbean is well below two in many parts France. 314 00:36:02,580 --> 00:36:08,010 And at various points, I put on things about access to abortion because it does matter. 315 00:36:08,010 --> 00:36:18,580 And the UK and the EU probably know that, but we've gone from something to something else in a generation. 316 00:36:18,580 --> 00:36:25,390 How many children you expected to have? We have four people worrying about you having too many. 317 00:36:25,390 --> 00:36:31,870 I started putting clothes on now this is Korea, Portugal and Brazil. 318 00:36:31,870 --> 00:36:36,470 The country is absolutely plummeting in Korea. 319 00:36:36,470 --> 00:36:42,460 Now they're bringing people's grandmothers into the primary schools. 320 00:36:42,460 --> 00:36:48,700 Because they need somebody to sit at a desk in the primary school and often the grandmothers are illiterate, 321 00:36:48,700 --> 00:36:52,330 so why not teach the grandmothers well as a child how to read? 322 00:36:52,330 --> 00:36:59,180 Because then the child has somebody to read with and the ones that have children in Korea? 323 00:36:59,180 --> 00:37:04,700 For those of you who like numbers, these are the numbers of highlighted just for you an event. 324 00:37:04,700 --> 00:37:11,810 So if you very fast track record of achievement of free trade is the current total fertility rate in the whole of the continent of Africa. 325 00:37:11,810 --> 00:37:17,870 2015 4.7 2016 4.6 2017 4.5. 326 00:37:17,870 --> 00:37:26,300 If you wanted to give you something was come new and current and not known that incredible acceleration in 327 00:37:26,300 --> 00:37:33,260 the rate has slowed down in Africa at the moment and trying to work out why is particularly interesting. 328 00:37:33,260 --> 00:37:38,960 Exactly the same numbers in a minute, but just the changes are all negative. 329 00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:44,030 Apart from China and China's never going to get up to two children again, 330 00:37:44,030 --> 00:37:51,800 the way things are going and highlighting the particular needs of the changes each year recently across Africa. 331 00:37:51,800 --> 00:38:00,170 So total human beings are slowing down. But I've got to wrap up because you've got to ask questions and you want to find out more things, just people. 332 00:38:00,170 --> 00:38:07,300 GDP or GDP. And again, I'll ask you to look from 2006 to 2018. 333 00:38:07,300 --> 00:38:12,160 Ignore 2008. I think it's leading off that way. 334 00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,180 US GDP. Go forward. 335 00:38:16,180 --> 00:38:21,130 GDP in China, which you'll know from reports of the moment, is slowing down. 336 00:38:21,130 --> 00:38:29,470 Bloomberg cited Chinese data can now be relied upon. We think it is the United States, not so much. 337 00:38:29,470 --> 00:38:41,770 Maybe you can look at, of course, all the countries of the world in this way, but the GDP numbers that they report to the IMF. 338 00:38:41,770 --> 00:38:51,600 Earnings, US medium earnings. Now, about three hundred fifty five dollars a week for somebody lucky enough to have a full time permanent job. 339 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:59,220 Oh, very much appears to be stabilising. Interest rates, of course, used to be very low. 340 00:38:59,220 --> 00:39:04,400 Two years ago, if we live again, we think it's temporary. 341 00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:08,610 It carries on, goes on, maybe goes in this country. 342 00:39:08,610 --> 00:39:15,180 We might be able to engineer a situation by the thirty first of October where the Bank of England has to desperately raise interest rates, 343 00:39:15,180 --> 00:39:21,770 the fed the pound. But other than that, we seem to have entered a new era. 344 00:39:21,770 --> 00:39:25,370 House prices, I promised you something about this. 345 00:39:25,370 --> 00:39:33,980 The world's longest house price series, as far as I know, is the series about the Particulars Canal in Amsterdam, 346 00:39:33,980 --> 00:39:37,850 where of course, prices because they are everywhere, stable. 347 00:39:37,850 --> 00:39:45,620 That's what stability looks like over a house price savings that goes from 16 to 18 ended in 1973. 348 00:39:45,620 --> 00:39:51,490 In that period, there was 200 years when real terms of prices fell. 349 00:39:51,490 --> 00:39:59,160 Have since I want to start with the most expensive part of here for house prices, where is now the most expensive part of you up for house prices? 350 00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:10,230 Welcome to Oxford. We actually beat London for the average person May 17 times average incomes if they could never afford in Oxford. 351 00:40:10,230 --> 00:40:20,140 They always eventually. As the UK House price data gains 2017, one of those graphs is absolute, 352 00:40:20,140 --> 00:40:25,600 one is relative and the relative one, you can see that moving towards slow down faster. 353 00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:29,110 The highest rate of house price rises for the 1970s. 354 00:40:29,110 --> 00:40:35,320 For those of you to remember, in the 1970s, my mom and dad bought a house before the Credit Co. Six years later, 355 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,260 the whole bit, like all eight years later, they bought one. 356 00:40:38,260 --> 00:40:46,990 A twenty one thousand pounds, advising first because of only summertime was twenty two thousand pounds. 357 00:40:46,990 --> 00:40:56,050 My mum and dad were never good economists. I would be a millionaire now if they happened anyway, and you have to worry about this anymore. 358 00:40:56,050 --> 00:41:07,470 There is no we need to buy houses in the future, usually inflated prices and none of you are going to get rich on buying a house now. 359 00:41:07,470 --> 00:41:15,270 Price of gold. It's really interesting, based almost entirely on speculation, favourite movie, 360 00:41:15,270 --> 00:41:21,700 be on selling jewellery and a little bit about Connexions and computers, but that's less needed. 361 00:41:21,700 --> 00:41:27,600 That's where it is. Stocks and shares. 362 00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:33,930 Imagine that you are trader in 1996 looking at the Nasdaq. You know, you'd be amazed. 363 00:41:33,930 --> 00:41:40,680 And then, of course, you can see the dot com crash, but two dot com crashes in it, and then we are. 364 00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:46,980 The state is only about a week old 2019 or if things happening with the Nasdaq. 365 00:41:46,980 --> 00:41:50,340 You know, there wasn't the fortune-telling thing in any of this. 366 00:41:50,340 --> 00:42:03,570 This is just looking at the numbers in this case, averaging them over an entire year to get them safe enough and having a look. 367 00:42:03,570 --> 00:42:16,150 Unbelievable change. A century ago, one in 10 of the children, the surfing conservancy and classes died before they reached age five. 368 00:42:16,150 --> 00:42:25,090 That's why we're paranoid about child death. It's an amazing change that we've gone through. 369 00:42:25,090 --> 00:42:28,750 Things really can change the big fear of my life with my teenage years. 370 00:42:28,750 --> 00:42:33,550 Here was when was I going to be annihilated in the nuclear war then? 371 00:42:33,550 --> 00:42:44,680 Because got a lot of the weapons still to go with, that is the best estimate of the top 10 warheads from the worst times in 1983 to them. 372 00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,890 And the same with climate change. It's just not impossible. 373 00:42:47,890 --> 00:42:57,550 The change almost at the last graph, this is propensity to marry, and you go from one system in the 1970s when my mom at that, 374 00:42:57,550 --> 00:43:03,700 my 60s when they got married and then you got this sudden drop to actually 375 00:43:03,700 --> 00:43:08,350 becoming a choice to marry now wasn't really a choice you had to marry then. 376 00:43:08,350 --> 00:43:10,360 Now you can choose to marry. 377 00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:20,230 So you had Tony Stark comes in that way and say to, I think, change his politics, I think is the most fascinating one for slow down. 378 00:43:20,230 --> 00:43:25,360 This was the most dramatic change in polling in Britain ever for every single poll we've ever had. 379 00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:34,930 This is the voice of support for Labour in February, March, April, May and June 2017, 380 00:43:34,930 --> 00:43:42,310 the biggest, fastest change in the politics of the people in Britain. The mandatory summary couldn't form majority government. 381 00:43:42,310 --> 00:43:48,490 That year was the most exciting change until the bloody Brexit Party came along, 382 00:43:48,490 --> 00:43:55,300 and I really don't want to put a graph of the Brexit Party in the book unless they absolutely plummet. 383 00:43:55,300 --> 00:43:59,860 Which case is going in? But just a time. 384 00:43:59,860 --> 00:44:07,850 Share with you the agony of thinking about these things. Do you think politics is slowing down? 385 00:44:07,850 --> 00:44:15,070 How many isms have we invented recently? Essentially, isn't that different from other kinds of socialism, so chant, 386 00:44:15,070 --> 00:44:23,020 so this would be one environmental system where we had that well before the 1960s and 70s, 387 00:44:23,020 --> 00:44:27,940 you could find Thatcherism as a specialism, you know, with a 79 80. 388 00:44:27,940 --> 00:44:32,080 I don't think many new ideas. But I could be getting old. Great. 389 00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:35,790 Well, I half of all of this is. 390 00:44:35,790 --> 00:44:42,690 The ones you can measure something it's slowing down, but the example I give you is disease with almost all diseases in Britain. 391 00:44:42,690 --> 00:44:49,200 If you if you plot the chances of you getting a disease and drops over time because 392 00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:53,040 one of the key things about curing a disease is actually knowing it is a disease. 393 00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:57,300 And once you recognise it as tuberculosis, it generally means you can do something about it. 394 00:44:57,300 --> 00:45:05,580 There's only one exception, which is cancer the actual rates of people dying from cancer virus after we identified cancers, but that is now falling. 395 00:45:05,580 --> 00:45:08,760 So I have a well about don't want to give you a few questions. 396 00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:16,170 I have a worry that the reason I'm finally finding everything slowing down is the things we get 397 00:45:16,170 --> 00:45:22,170 good enough to be able to measure by the time we get good enough to measure them are slowing down. 398 00:45:22,170 --> 00:45:29,340 I stuck in the picture swimming pools in California to tell me that I had to stop talking. 399 00:45:29,340 --> 00:45:34,170 We really do need to slow down the death traps. 400 00:45:34,170 --> 00:45:39,660 They don't particularly make you happy. You may think swimming pool is a lovely thing to have. 401 00:45:39,660 --> 00:45:46,530 You certainly don't need so many. You can go around and talk to the neighbours and use their swimming pool that you 402 00:45:46,530 --> 00:45:53,280 wouldn't have to try and fill them all up with a diminishing quantity of water. There are lots of good reasons to think we're slowing down. 403 00:45:53,280 --> 00:46:02,400 The last graphic I put up is the CO2 one because it is depressing, and that's the one we need to slow down the most. 404 00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:11,670 But nice and simple. Pretty nice and simple. We're so lucky. Absolute linear relationship between CO2 enough and carbon gases and temperature, 405 00:46:11,670 --> 00:46:15,600 you know, for largely a dying world population, luckily kind of got decided. 406 00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:27,000 Let's make this one easy for you to understand. The final graph is from colleagues in Japan who've been told these graphs in 20 years. 407 00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:31,860 This graph happens to be of the growth of Tokyo and whichever country was growing 408 00:46:31,860 --> 00:46:39,330 at the edges or in the middle of all the entries in the middle of rather, mountain mound sets us on the middle because Tokyo's stock changing. 409 00:46:39,330 --> 00:46:44,290 So what a slowdown means. She stopped changing. 410 00:46:44,290 --> 00:46:53,960 Population, folks rising in carry on living in the same places you've been living before with much the same things that you had before. 411 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:58,270 And for the first time, we get what we've had for most of human history. 412 00:46:58,270 --> 00:47:09,160 We get two generations who experience a very similar life, have the same number of children, same kind of clothes, same expectations. 413 00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:14,650 Same living standards. That's where we appear to be heading. 414 00:47:14,650 --> 00:47:25,100 Thank you so much for your patience. Thanks, Tony. 415 00:47:25,100 --> 00:47:30,380 That was great. I saw the number of slots you had. I didn't think you'd get through it, so congratulations. 416 00:47:30,380 --> 00:47:37,470 Do we have some questions? Who would like to give someone over there? 417 00:47:37,470 --> 00:47:50,580 Sure. Thank you. And you said in passing at some point that if population continues to go down, that's a good thing because we'll be happier in 2100. 418 00:47:50,580 --> 00:47:58,470 Assume for the sake of argument, just purely hypothetical that climate change is solved tomorrow by some ingenious method. 419 00:47:58,470 --> 00:48:07,320 Would you still say that I'm an automobile optimist, so I think you could actually, 420 00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:12,840 if you were well organised, then with 15 billion people on the planet. 421 00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:19,350 But. Those people who do worry, you can suddenly calm them down. 422 00:48:19,350 --> 00:48:22,050 So all the people who worry about too many people. 423 00:48:22,050 --> 00:48:30,180 And there were a lot I think they'd be happier, though better ways to get happier than worrying about migrants, though. 424 00:48:30,180 --> 00:48:38,250 The worst thing to do is live in an area where migrants don't come. I've lived in places where migrants don't come, and it's miserable. 425 00:48:38,250 --> 00:48:44,130 I am not too worried about where if we have five million people on the planet or 15 million. 426 00:48:44,130 --> 00:48:51,390 Currently, we have one billion people who behave so badly they can't be by far the bulk of all that carbon. 427 00:48:51,390 --> 00:48:59,580 I don't tend to worry about population numbers, but it's it's interesting what you could do in a more stable world. 428 00:48:59,580 --> 00:49:02,100 We're getting more and more wilderness at the moment. 429 00:49:02,100 --> 00:49:09,810 There's actually more places to go away to get away from everything else because people are still coming off the land into cities. 430 00:49:09,810 --> 00:49:12,070 Cities are great for their urban heat islands, 431 00:49:12,070 --> 00:49:17,700 the kind of self-hate from our bodies as a as the head of an air conditioning system working in this way. 432 00:49:17,700 --> 00:49:25,200 And he'd know about that if there was one today. But I don't think the population level is that important. 433 00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:29,190 It's just the most easy one to demonstrate slow down. 434 00:49:29,190 --> 00:49:34,980 If I was to show you the speed of semiconductors and so on, but it's a lot more boring. 435 00:49:34,980 --> 00:49:39,810 And then we have a whole argument about what the [INAUDIBLE] is that semiconductor being used for? 436 00:49:39,810 --> 00:49:44,730 It's very hard to measure technological change. I'm very sceptical. 437 00:49:44,730 --> 00:49:50,850 The papers I've read that I believe the most say the 1930s was the period the fastest before the war. 438 00:49:50,850 --> 00:49:55,830 The first is that logical change, but we don't actually have a measure. 439 00:49:55,830 --> 00:50:04,920 You could do the same with drugs. You know, drugs measure them by what they've achieved and then say, So what we've invented the last 10 or 20 years, 440 00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:13,860 given how many more people we have for searching drugs so that for the planet, it doesn't compare well to the easy wins at the start. 441 00:50:13,860 --> 00:50:18,540 But once you get into an argument, you tend to defend it to the hilt. 442 00:50:18,540 --> 00:50:24,000 There is a danger. There must be things of the temperature which are accelerating. 443 00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:31,200 Still, the I have just not thought of a question there and then one over. 444 00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:39,420 Thank you very much. Presentation an impressive number of growths, which I don't think I've ever seen so many, certainly in my discipline. 445 00:50:39,420 --> 00:50:45,090 What's in your view then underpins this evolutionary change. 446 00:50:45,090 --> 00:50:54,210 This reduction and are the same changes in processes and principles driving the increase in global warming as well. 447 00:50:54,210 --> 00:51:04,740 So is there a unifying principle that you see or principles that are leading to these changes? 448 00:51:04,740 --> 00:51:12,810 Industrialisation that destroys global warming and it happened earlier and it also happened in China a lot earlier. 449 00:51:12,810 --> 00:51:23,880 But then they called a halt to it. This is centuries ago. The reason why the acceleration took off in the first place. 450 00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:33,300 It's difficult to tie down and probably related to the invasion of the Americas and then the growing wealth of Europe as a result, 451 00:51:33,300 --> 00:51:40,410 and then you begin to see Europe is the place that produced the most babies early on that then flooded the rest of the planet. 452 00:51:40,410 --> 00:51:45,390 The deceleration is much easier to understand because we can get data and it's women getting power. 453 00:51:45,390 --> 00:51:51,810 It is. It is the revolution from women in this place being subhuman. 454 00:51:51,810 --> 00:51:57,570 A century ago, you can't possibly have them studying with us, man, because we're the clever ones to. 455 00:51:57,570 --> 00:52:00,330 When the figures released in two weeks time for the first time ever, 456 00:52:00,330 --> 00:52:05,970 the University of Oxford will be solidly majority female undergraduate, but it's taken this long time. 457 00:52:05,970 --> 00:52:20,010 It's a slow university, this one. But that change in a century from seeing women as subhuman to women being a long way on equal power. 458 00:52:20,010 --> 00:52:23,520 The average woman in the world wants half a child less than the average man, 459 00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:29,430 and the average woman in the world now gets her way as opposed to the past, and he was all about education and so on. 460 00:52:29,430 --> 00:52:36,160 But above all else, it's it's that why that happened. 461 00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:41,920 I don't know. That's beyond me, but I can tie it down to the changing position of women. 462 00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:48,040 I mean, the other thing to say this is a bit trite is something have to happen. This is a change is temporary. 463 00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:53,200 We think of it as an era we live in. We think of it as a mode of production. 464 00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:59,380 We call it the capitalist mode of production because we like to think that we're in something that's a bit stable. 465 00:52:59,380 --> 00:53:02,530 But it isn't. It's a change from one thing to another. 466 00:53:02,530 --> 00:53:09,790 And for five generations, we've been on the runaway train, and for the first few generations, that train was going faster, faster, faster. 467 00:53:09,790 --> 00:53:18,370 And what's happened right now is that somebody slammed the brakes on, and it feels really bad because we used train to moving forward. 468 00:53:18,370 --> 00:53:26,470 We think we should get a new kind of invention, a new TV set. We should be able to press the button and teleport somewhere else in the future 469 00:53:26,470 --> 00:53:30,970 because the rate of change was so fast in the past that when that happens, 470 00:53:30,970 --> 00:53:35,830 when you still got a washing machine and tumble dryer and that was invented, the boxer will iron your clothes. 471 00:53:35,830 --> 00:53:42,430 Yet, you know, things really have slowed down. And that's how you GDP's are going to hardly lose. 472 00:53:42,430 --> 00:53:50,200 Your children aren't going to be better off than you. We think it's a terrible thing that has to happen at some point. 473 00:53:50,200 --> 00:54:01,940 But all I do is look at data, try to make sure it's correct to always in a particular way and keep on seeing class, the things slowing down. 474 00:54:01,940 --> 00:54:14,720 You just have to say it really, really is slowing. And not only is it slowing in the last few years, the speed of slowdown has accelerated. 475 00:54:14,720 --> 00:54:24,530 Thanks, gentlemen, the. Could you use a microphone during the period of growing population? 476 00:54:24,530 --> 00:54:32,420 We had rapid urbanisation as well from your figures, do you know urbanisation is affected by this slowdown? 477 00:54:32,420 --> 00:54:36,770 Do people more people live in the countryside now? No, no. 478 00:54:36,770 --> 00:54:41,660 The world still urbanising and there is a tiny I start the book off with this. 479 00:54:41,660 --> 00:54:45,260 I start the book off of a couple of couples I actually want to know. 480 00:54:45,260 --> 00:54:52,430 One his move to live in less force than and another Japanese companies move further because this is kind of rural little idea with some of the young. 481 00:54:52,430 --> 00:54:56,540 If we want to go and live in the village in the middle of nowhere, 482 00:54:56,540 --> 00:55:02,210 they are really where I got because if many, many other people have that dream, they will. 483 00:55:02,210 --> 00:55:12,860 Their dreams will be ruined. So for every couple that moves away to the very little island, another 100 are coming into the city. 484 00:55:12,860 --> 00:55:20,680 But as we head towards being an 80 percent urbanised world, the generations that. 485 00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:27,530 It will stop. There have to be some people out there, and some may want to be out in the countryside to go. 486 00:55:27,530 --> 00:55:31,280 I think the rate of urbanisation is now slowing, 487 00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:38,150 but it's one of those kind of cheesy things because anything that could only ever get to 100 percent has to slow. 488 00:55:38,150 --> 00:55:42,380 It's hard, but it is satisfying, but we all still urbanising. 489 00:55:42,380 --> 00:55:49,430 And the young really want to be if you give them a choice in cities around the world as far as we can see. 490 00:55:49,430 --> 00:55:56,570 So will Japan is old Japan. But it's kind of stopped at this point. 491 00:55:56,570 --> 00:56:02,420 And there are luckily enough young people who will move to villages in the middle of nowhere up in the north of 492 00:56:02,420 --> 00:56:10,200 Japan to actually help keep the village going because you can't just keep villagers going by retirees moving in. 493 00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:11,510 That's what happens in this country. 494 00:56:11,510 --> 00:56:19,790 Retirees move into their villages and you do need somebody under 60 in the village where there are lots of questions. 495 00:56:19,790 --> 00:56:25,890 And I'm sorry, we just have time for one more over there. Thank you very much. 496 00:56:25,890 --> 00:56:31,470 My question is, what do you mean, how do you measure women's education? 497 00:56:31,470 --> 00:56:36,830 How do you actually analyse a lot between the achievement? 498 00:56:36,830 --> 00:56:54,940 And then you to. The second in my thirties, I talked the name of social development will take place. 499 00:56:54,940 --> 00:57:00,780 The argument was not that it was female education, but that it was Social Security. 500 00:57:00,780 --> 00:57:07,060 It was state interventions which reduced the risk of children dying. 501 00:57:07,060 --> 00:57:11,710 Once those interventions are in place, then women can have fewer children. 502 00:57:11,710 --> 00:57:16,490 And so it's not necessarily women decision, either it's a male or female decision. 503 00:57:16,490 --> 00:57:27,820 Yeah, they what I say not too long involves, but you're like the my grandmother when when she got Alzheimer's would talk endlessly 504 00:57:27,820 --> 00:57:33,400 about babies on the cushions because she comes from an era where babies died. 505 00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:39,040 We are now in this country. We have an infant mortality rate of three point six per thousand is actually rising. 506 00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:43,810 Tragically, there's only 3.6 in the best parts of the world is just two. 507 00:57:43,810 --> 00:57:47,930 You can have a single child and expect that single child to outlive you. 508 00:57:47,930 --> 00:57:55,390 And it's the first time you'd be really lucky that way, and he changes your behaviour as something. 509 00:57:55,390 --> 00:58:00,340 Education we measure now by the number of days or years spent in secondary education. 510 00:58:00,340 --> 00:58:07,330 And the numbers who are graduating from universities and the majority of graduates in the world are now female. 511 00:58:07,330 --> 00:58:19,600 But that's that's the way in which you measure it. But you were also very light that when you see increases in fertility, 512 00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:24,070 it's partly when you need to have more children for your own Social Security later 513 00:58:24,070 --> 00:58:31,170 in life when things fall apart because you hope one of them will look after you. 514 00:58:31,170 --> 00:58:35,400 And when you can rely on the state and think that the state will look after you and 515 00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:41,100 particularly somebody will be provided to wash your body in the last year of your life, 516 00:58:41,100 --> 00:58:43,740 then you can have fewer to do it. 517 00:58:43,740 --> 00:58:53,500 So creating that situation is just as important as the increased education that is there, but the wonderful, magical thing. 518 00:58:53,500 --> 00:58:56,470 Is going from a situation. 519 00:58:56,470 --> 00:59:08,650 In which most people would see one of their children die before reaching adulthood to a situation in which that is almost completely unknown. 520 00:59:08,650 --> 00:59:10,150 And the great irony in our lives, 521 00:59:10,150 --> 00:59:21,160 leave it with you is we still have the inbuilt fear and paranoia that you need to deal with those circumstances and the tragedy. 522 00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:27,460 As we now transfer that fear about what can I do to my child doesn't die to? 523 00:59:27,460 --> 00:59:35,980 How am I going to get them to get an a star in their GCSE and the astounding GCSE really, really doesn't matter. 524 00:59:35,980 --> 00:59:42,100 But the gut feeling of absolute paranoia about the children comes from the time when they could die. 525 00:59:42,100 --> 00:59:48,680 And we've got to somehow learn to calm down and realise that they're almost certainly going to be OK. 526 00:59:48,680 --> 00:59:59,180 Thanks so much. 527 00:59:59,180 --> 01:00:07,490 So thanks again for dining, for a really fascinating talk and go and plot all your grass growth phase diagrams rather than against time. 528 01:00:07,490 --> 01:00:11,330 And just a reminder that next week we have Diana Coyle, who will be speaking. 529 01:00:11,330 --> 01:00:15,410 So I do come along for the next in our series of evolving economic thought. 530 01:00:15,410 --> 01:00:27,978 Join me by thanking Diana again.