1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:12,060 Welcome, everyone. It is my pleasure and honour to welcome Dr. Kingsley Moghalu to the Oxford Martin School. 2 00:00:12,060 --> 00:00:22,410 Dr. Moghalu is here as a guest of the Oxford Martin Programme on African Governance, which I co-directed with Professor Stephan Durcan, 3 00:00:22,410 --> 00:00:30,630 and we're, as I said, delighted to have you with us for the duration of Michaelmas Term. 4 00:00:30,630 --> 00:00:42,750 Many of you will know Dr Mugabe's trajectory. Dr Mugabe is the former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria from 2009 to 2014. 5 00:00:42,750 --> 00:00:50,340 He earlier that is the LSC and he was also in the UN system for 17 years. 6 00:00:50,340 --> 00:00:59,810 Is the author of numerous books, including Emerging Africa, and he was also in 2019, a candidate for the the. 7 00:00:59,810 --> 00:01:09,030 The Nigerian presidency is also an aspiring candidate before the elections in two thousand and twenty three. 8 00:01:09,030 --> 00:01:14,340 Without further ado, I'll pass on the words to Kingsley. 9 00:01:14,340 --> 00:01:18,330 It will be. We're looking forward to hearing your comments. Thank you. 10 00:01:18,330 --> 00:01:22,190 Thank you. So I can start. So I can stuff. 11 00:01:22,190 --> 00:01:27,260 Okay, great. Just left one. Sorry. Yeah. Just for the online audience. 12 00:01:27,260 --> 00:01:29,840 Yeah. If you'd like to ask a question, 13 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:40,100 there's a ask a question button and we have someone who will be taking on the questions and relay the questions to Dr. Midollo after his presentation. 14 00:01:40,100 --> 00:01:45,950 There will be a Q&A session, and at that stage we'll be able to deal with comments and questions, 15 00:01:45,950 --> 00:01:51,050 both from the physical audience here at the Martin School and the online audience. 16 00:01:51,050 --> 00:02:01,200 Thank you. Thank you, Ricardo. Good evening, good afternoon. 17 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:11,670 Thank you very much, Ricardo. I thank the Oxford Martin School for hosting me as a visiting fellow for this McMaster. 18 00:02:11,670 --> 00:02:20,640 It's been a great experience and this is part of what I'm supposed to deliver as a visiting fellow. 19 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:26,070 I did not come simply to look at the beautiful environment of Oxford. 20 00:02:26,070 --> 00:02:31,710 And so I'm going to be speaking this evening about political economy of Nigeria. 21 00:02:31,710 --> 00:02:37,860 I also welcome our guests on line of whom I know there are several as well. 22 00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:44,190 I'm going to be speaking about the political economy of Nigeria. 23 00:02:44,190 --> 00:02:52,350 Challenges and opportunities for many of us here, of course, are familiar with Nigeria. 24 00:02:52,350 --> 00:02:59,520 It's a country that has big, important and matters in the world. 25 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:07,140 And, you know, it's of interest to a lot of a lot of people, 200 million people. 26 00:03:07,140 --> 00:03:16,800 GDP of about 400 and 40 million estimated as of 2021, population of 200 million. 27 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:26,100 But the country is currently going through some very difficult times and it is going through economic distress. 28 00:03:26,100 --> 00:03:33,840 It's going through security challenges, attacks from terrorists, especially in the northern part of the country. 29 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:43,290 It's going through challenges to state legitimacy and, of course, a serious problems of of nationhood. 30 00:03:43,290 --> 00:03:55,680 While it is tempting to focus on the largely negative indicators that dominates the political and economic situation at this particular time, 31 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,010 admiring the problem is not an option. 32 00:03:59,010 --> 00:04:11,930 As far as I am concerned, I believe very strongly that there is a path for Nigeria's transformation and progress, and we must find that path. 33 00:04:11,930 --> 00:04:21,240 But, you know, to solve our problems, I think we have to understand exactly what those problems are and not sugarcoat them, but understand them. 34 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:25,530 Not because we want to be negative, but precisely because we should. 35 00:04:25,530 --> 00:04:29,460 We should know what obstacles we face and how to overcome them. 36 00:04:29,460 --> 00:04:33,780 And in doing so, I would recommend a political economy approach. 37 00:04:33,780 --> 00:04:40,170 Why do I recommend a why do I take a political economy approach? 38 00:04:40,170 --> 00:04:49,920 I take that because especially for a developing post-colonial state like Nigeria and the evolution of its economy, 39 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:57,240 questions of poverty and the possibility of widespread creation of wealth for and by 40 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:03,240 the citizens can only be resolved by looking at the interaction between politics, 41 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:10,290 laws, institutions and the market. That's how the development process actually happens. 42 00:05:10,290 --> 00:05:21,540 And so that's why I think it's best to take a political economy approach to a discussion of how we can resolve Nigeria's obstacles and move forward. 43 00:05:21,540 --> 00:05:32,820 There is no shortage of brilliant economists in Nigeria, you know, but of 19 million of our 200 million citizens still live in extreme poverty. 44 00:05:32,820 --> 00:05:43,290 So and it is the country's politics which is focussed on power captured by the elites so that they can control and create ransom patronage. 45 00:05:43,290 --> 00:05:52,740 That is what has framed this reality. And that's why we have to take a political economy approach on the foundation. 46 00:05:52,740 --> 00:06:00,270 Nigeria, like most sub-Saharan African states, is an artificial creation. 47 00:06:00,270 --> 00:06:12,000 It's not an organically developed state. The British colonial enterprise put together several ethnic nations in one country without their consent. 48 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:21,810 And this was done in the amalgamation of the northern protectorate and the south on protectorate in 1914, 49 00:06:21,810 --> 00:06:26,020 although there was some sort of treaty, but in reality it was cast. 50 00:06:26,020 --> 00:06:36,360 And you know, the creation of Nigeria came about by force many military defeats of several territories in the territorial area. 51 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:43,590 So, you know, but this amalgamation was problematic because the northern parts of the country 52 00:06:43,590 --> 00:06:47,910 and the south and part of the country have fundamentally different backgrounds, 53 00:06:47,910 --> 00:06:57,270 different histories, different cultures and very different worldviews. The northern part of the country is mainly Islamic. 54 00:06:57,270 --> 00:07:03,390 It's it's it's feudal was even more so at that time. 55 00:07:03,390 --> 00:07:10,890 You know, religion played and still plays a very important role in public life in the south. 56 00:07:10,890 --> 00:07:21,720 You had a more commercial culture, mostly Christian, yes, but some somewhat more secular when it comes to public affairs and public policy. 57 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:26,550 And, you know, economically even today, but certainly at that time, 58 00:07:26,550 --> 00:07:33,780 the South protectorate was economically far stronger than the northern protectorate. 59 00:07:33,780 --> 00:07:42,840 So what was the reason then that Britain decided to merge these two very dissimilar colonies again? 60 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,960 Mostly economic, mostly economic. 61 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:56,460 The whole colonial enterprise was driven by an economic worldview, and that was to, you know, the industrial revolution, 62 00:07:56,460 --> 00:08:03,090 as we know, created a need for new sources of raw materials and new markets for finished products. 63 00:08:03,090 --> 00:08:05,880 And this was what drove the colonial enterprise. 64 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:15,870 So a such of the historical archives makes it very clear that the British colonial masters matched the Colonial, 65 00:08:15,870 --> 00:08:19,560 the South and the modern protectorate for economic reasons, 66 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:28,380 mostly to utilise the budget surplus of the South to offset the budget deficits that they were running in the North. 67 00:08:28,380 --> 00:08:33,990 And as well to to create a network of railways that would connect the two and bring 68 00:08:33,990 --> 00:08:41,220 even more raw materials for the industrial projects back in the United Kingdom. 69 00:08:41,220 --> 00:08:56,850 So this was a major reason. And in doing so, the British colonial officials described the moth, which was described the moth as the poor husband. 70 00:08:56,850 --> 00:09:04,530 And described the South as the wealthy lady of Means, so the motive was very clear. 71 00:09:04,530 --> 00:09:08,390 If you go to the archives and I myself, I've researched these things, 72 00:09:08,390 --> 00:09:16,380 so I've seen the original records of these phrases used by British colonial officials in that memos back to London. 73 00:09:16,380 --> 00:09:24,660 So and yet the British colonial officials, perhaps out of a sentimental attachment to a shared feudal culture, 74 00:09:24,660 --> 00:09:34,500 had always had a stronger political, cultural and strategic alignment with nothing in Nigeria's political and religious elite, 75 00:09:34,500 --> 00:09:39,720 far more so than with the largely Christian south of Nigeria, 76 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:52,200 which was home to the vociferous campaigners for independence from colonial rule such as the nom de Azikiwe Obafemi Awolowo, Anthony Enahoro. 77 00:09:52,200 --> 00:10:04,530 So the tripartite regional structure in Nigeria, which was the northern region, the western region, the eastern region at the time in the 1950s, 78 00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:12,240 combined with the parliamentary system of government instituted by Britain as a colonial power, 79 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:18,240 led to the development of a politics that was based on ethnic affiliation. 80 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:25,050 Although there were attempts at Cross, you know, cross campaigning and mobilising support across ethnic groups. 81 00:10:25,050 --> 00:10:29,820 But the three dominant parties had regional basis. 82 00:10:29,820 --> 00:10:38,550 You know, the Northern People's Congress, the NPC, the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons, the ANC and the Action Group. 83 00:10:38,550 --> 00:10:46,620 So one of the implications of this trajectory was that Nigeria had no single founding father, you know, 84 00:10:46,620 --> 00:10:53,880 around whom a national identity and consciousness could cohere in the same manner as, for example, Susser. 85 00:10:53,880 --> 00:11:01,470 It's a of Botswana, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania, Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya or Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana. 86 00:11:01,470 --> 00:11:07,200 Rather, we had multiple founding fathers. We had at least three. 87 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:13,050 And that was Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was premier of the East, Ahmadu Bello, 88 00:11:13,050 --> 00:11:17,970 who was premier of the North, and Obafemi Awolowo, who was premier of the South. 89 00:11:17,970 --> 00:11:26,610 Now, although anecdotally, Nnamdi Azikiwe was considered as the primal of powers in the context of the nationalist 90 00:11:26,610 --> 00:11:30,780 struggle because he was clearly the leading light of the nationalist struggle. 91 00:11:30,780 --> 00:11:36,000 But in reality, they were all in charge of their regions, and so they were all Igbo. 92 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:42,990 So this is a very important understanding of the background of where Nigeria is coming from. 93 00:11:42,990 --> 00:11:52,590 Now we must recognise these unique, difficult foundations. Like I said, not because we cannot make Nigeria a truly great country in spite of them. 94 00:11:52,590 --> 00:12:03,150 I believe that we can't personally, but because, like I said, we must know consciously the roots of the obstacles that we have to overcome. 95 00:12:03,150 --> 00:12:09,090 So having said that, the strategic challenges that face Nigeria today. 96 00:12:09,090 --> 00:12:19,010 If you take a poll of Nigerians, they will come up with him myriad issues, but I have tried to synthesise it down to seven. 97 00:12:19,010 --> 00:12:29,810 And the criterion that I have used, in my view, is systemic influence and consequence on the country's security, 98 00:12:29,810 --> 00:12:32,690 on the country's politics and the country's economics. 99 00:12:32,690 --> 00:12:46,200 In other words, what are the the the causes or the issues that have causative rather than symptomatic impact based on their knock on effects? 100 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:56,380 And like I said, mention seven one the decline of national security and a sense of nationhood. 101 00:12:56,380 --> 00:13:01,300 Two week political order formation. 102 00:13:01,300 --> 00:13:07,690 Three. The decline of state capacity and the elite class. 103 00:13:07,690 --> 00:13:15,710 For the curse of oil. Five corruption. 104 00:13:15,710 --> 00:13:24,280 Six uncontrolled population growth. Uncontrolled population growth. 105 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:39,490 Seven loss of global influence. So these are the seven issues that I have identified as the most important systemic and strategic challenges. 106 00:13:39,490 --> 00:13:51,790 Yeah, that's that face Nigeria. So and I repeat the claim of national security and a sense of nationhood, which political order formation, 107 00:13:51,790 --> 00:13:58,150 decline of state capacity and the elite class for the cost a curse of oil, 108 00:13:58,150 --> 00:14:06,460 five corruption, six uncontrolled population growth and seven loss of global influence. 109 00:14:06,460 --> 00:14:12,220 I will not dwell too much on these things, but I have a written paper that can be shared. 110 00:14:12,220 --> 00:14:18,370 I want to dwell a little bit more on the path to resolution, 111 00:14:18,370 --> 00:14:25,870 but I would just skeletal in mentioning one or two things on each item the decline of national security and nationhood. 112 00:14:25,870 --> 00:14:31,170 Today, Nigeria is beset by terrorism. 113 00:14:31,170 --> 00:14:40,230 The territorial integrity of the nation of the country is under assault from Boko Haram and an assortment of other terrorist groups. 114 00:14:40,230 --> 00:14:48,750 In the past 10 years, about 50000 people have been killed by terrorist attacks, mostly in the northern in the northern states. 115 00:14:48,750 --> 00:14:54,050 So that's a very, you know, important challenge because there are risks, 116 00:14:54,050 --> 00:15:01,860 the distinct possibility if we are not careful that Nigeria can unravel as a result of terrorism. 117 00:15:01,860 --> 00:15:13,800 So that's a systemic problem right there. And along with that, of course, is what I identify as the decline of nationhood today in Nigeria. 118 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:22,320 A lot of people would much prefer to identify themselves by their ethnic group before they would say they are Nigerians, 119 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:27,420 and many of them would consider the Nigerian identity an imposition. 120 00:15:27,420 --> 00:15:32,100 Now, this has led to a challenge against the legitimacy of the states where you now 121 00:15:32,100 --> 00:15:37,800 have secessionist groups or separatist groups such as the new Biafra movement, 122 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:45,240 such as the Niger Delta Liberation Movement or Republic of Niger Delta, such as the year about Oduduwa movement. 123 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,630 So you have these movements under a very loud. 124 00:15:48,630 --> 00:15:57,750 But don't confuse that their minds or the decibel of their protests to mean that the majority of people from 125 00:15:57,750 --> 00:16:05,160 those areas identify or believe that that is the solution to the challenges Nigeria has having to nation. 126 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:12,210 Most people from those regions will tell you, yes, there are problems, but they will identify a different solution, 127 00:16:12,210 --> 00:16:18,850 which is one of the things we will discuss as the path to resolution rather than to break up a country. 128 00:16:18,850 --> 00:16:23,100 So, so that's yeah. So so today. 129 00:16:23,100 --> 00:16:26,850 The absence of nationhood reveals itself in three important ways. One. 130 00:16:26,850 --> 00:16:32,130 The rise of separatist groups sudden upsurge of second. 131 00:16:32,130 --> 00:16:36,960 Another way you can see is that even in the response to terrorism, 132 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:49,020 one of the problems we face in Nigeria is a perception that there is a divided loyalty in some parts of the architecture for national security. 133 00:16:49,020 --> 00:16:56,550 And some people may actually have that divided loyalties not by choice, but by the fact that some of these terrorists have taken some territory. 134 00:16:56,550 --> 00:17:01,440 Whether or not the state authorities accept that or not is beside the point. 135 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:08,280 We know for a fact that some parts of the North have been overrun and many people have been displaced. 136 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:17,910 And so you have a lot of internal refugees. The third evidence of an increase in absence of nationhood lies in the fractious 137 00:17:17,910 --> 00:17:23,460 controversy over the rotation of the presidency between the North and the South. 138 00:17:23,460 --> 00:17:30,540 Whether or not you accept or you believe that power rotation is a way to stabilise Nigeria, 139 00:17:30,540 --> 00:17:38,820 the very existence of that informal tradition since 1999 is a recognition that there is a problem. 140 00:17:38,820 --> 00:17:43,410 So, you know, but without fixing the challenge of the decline in nationhood, 141 00:17:43,410 --> 00:17:51,120 I think it will be very difficult for Nigeria to make real progress on any fronts, including the security front. 142 00:17:51,120 --> 00:17:56,430 The second problem is distorted democratic development. 143 00:17:56,430 --> 00:18:02,300 We've been a democracy since 1999, but in reality, what we have is civil rule. 144 00:18:02,300 --> 00:18:07,460 It's not a real democracy, it's not a democracy in which the people have a voice. 145 00:18:07,460 --> 00:18:12,020 It's not a democracy in which people are an informed electorate. 146 00:18:12,020 --> 00:18:15,420 It's not a democracy in which people can afford three square meals. 147 00:18:15,420 --> 00:18:20,870 And so if you come to them to buy their vote, what's wrong with you? You need to go to a hospital. 148 00:18:20,870 --> 00:18:27,290 But no, we see sometimes videos of people standing and just distributing money to poor people in the villages. 149 00:18:27,290 --> 00:18:31,880 And this cannot be democracy as as we know it anyway. 150 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:37,100 So the political elite are so powerful and they have changed the minds of the people, 151 00:18:37,100 --> 00:18:41,660 and the people have fallen into something that we might describe as Stockholm Syndrome, 152 00:18:41,660 --> 00:18:50,660 where they know there's a problem, but they feel a bit powerless to escape from the clutches of the people who they know are causing the problem. 153 00:18:50,660 --> 00:18:54,950 And so, for example, it's been difficult until, you know, 154 00:18:54,950 --> 00:19:03,080 up till now to have the people vote for candidates who have substance or who have solutions to their problems, 155 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:07,460 but they prefer to give their vote to people who they believe will win. 156 00:19:07,460 --> 00:19:13,160 So there is a subtle psychology of women being on a winning bandwagon. 157 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:13,880 But in reality, 158 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:21,830 it's a bandwagon to nowhere because you're voting for people who have the ability to win elections but do not have the ability to govern. 159 00:19:21,830 --> 00:19:26,270 So in some, in some instances, they don't even have the interest to govern. 160 00:19:26,270 --> 00:19:31,240 So and yet people will say, Oh, the APC or the PDP, so. 161 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:39,970 So this is this is where we are. But that problem is the decline of state capacity and the elite class. 162 00:19:39,970 --> 00:19:45,250 Now, state capacity is measured mostly in three ways. 163 00:19:45,250 --> 00:19:55,180 You know, the ability to defend territory, territorial integrity, the ability of the state to extract taxes and revenues for fiscal operations. 164 00:19:55,180 --> 00:20:00,840 The ability of the states to deliver administrative services efficiently and effectively. 165 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:07,390 So each of these measurements is it's in decline. 166 00:20:07,390 --> 00:20:12,220 And you may even say in some instances that they don't exist alongside that. 167 00:20:12,220 --> 00:20:15,970 You have the elite also in the planning before. 168 00:20:15,970 --> 00:20:19,690 Yes, years ago, the evidence was influential in society. 169 00:20:19,690 --> 00:20:23,710 Who are the people who went to school? You know, maybe they were teachers. 170 00:20:23,710 --> 00:20:27,730 Maybe they were professors. Maybe they were professionals like doctors and lawyers. 171 00:20:27,730 --> 00:20:33,840 Today, it's not quite the same. They're not necessarily the people that a lot of people look up to. 172 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:38,500 You know, so there's been the elite is in retreat first. 173 00:20:38,500 --> 00:20:43,120 It's economically emasculated because of the economic problems in the country. 174 00:20:43,120 --> 00:20:50,110 And so increasingly, people are either rich or poor and you don't have much yet and middle class. 175 00:20:50,110 --> 00:20:56,470 Secondly, they're absent from the national discourse. And then thirdly, 176 00:20:56,470 --> 00:21:01,990 that they've abandoned their their responsibility to mediate between the political 177 00:21:01,990 --> 00:21:06,940 leadership and the poor by being the ones that guide people on how to vote. 178 00:21:06,940 --> 00:21:15,460 Or you vote for Sadhana or you vote for ZIK or you vote for power and interprets maybe what their views meant. 179 00:21:15,460 --> 00:21:21,390 And that's another thing about the politics. In the fifties and sixties, the politics was far more substantive. 180 00:21:21,390 --> 00:21:28,210 Today, the politics of Nigeria is anti-intellectual. It's completely anti-intellectual. 181 00:21:28,210 --> 00:21:36,070 So it's lost substance completely. And if you are a person of intellectual substance, you run the risk of even being derided. 182 00:21:36,070 --> 00:21:43,690 When people say things like, Oh, I'm on the blow. Grammar is blurring grammar, you know, speaks good English and things like that. 183 00:21:43,690 --> 00:21:47,350 Keep speaking English. You know, you hear things like that. 184 00:21:47,350 --> 00:21:55,000 And then, you know, it's really we need collective therapy. But that's a separate mindset. 185 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,630 So forth is the curse of the Petro state. 186 00:21:58,630 --> 00:22:08,500 I don't need to go into details about the damage that oil has done, and this is the same with many resource resource rich states. 187 00:22:08,500 --> 00:22:15,400 Very few states that are resource states have a state because of of of resources. 188 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,900 You know, we have examples like Malaysia, we have examples like Thailand. 189 00:22:19,900 --> 00:22:27,280 Tomorrow, I'll be speaking at the Blavatnik School on Emerging Markets and we be discussing those kinds of things. 190 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,800 But the Petro state has hurt Nigeria. 191 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:38,560 It's made the country far poorer and made the country to lose focus on what was its original path towards industrialisation. 192 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,100 In the fifties and sixties, industrialisation was a very clear goal. 193 00:22:42,100 --> 00:22:48,880 But as soon as oil rose in importance around the Civil War and immediately after the winning to early seventies, 194 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:56,240 the Nigerian state lost its way very clear. So then you have corruption. 195 00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:01,450 A big problem. Why is it a big problem? Not because it's it's only in Nigeria. 196 00:23:01,450 --> 00:23:06,580 You have corruption. Corruption is a problem because it's not on the periphery. 197 00:23:06,580 --> 00:23:18,880 It's in the centre of the court. And that's a problem because it prevents development and increases poverty and a lot of the like, 198 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:23,380 I saw one civil society organisations say a few days ago. And I totally agree. 199 00:23:23,380 --> 00:23:30,640 Sixty percent of the corruption in Nigeria is official and it's embedded in the budget. 200 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:38,950 It's embedded in the yearly budget every year that call trillions, but a lot of these things are bloated in the view of many, many people. 201 00:23:38,950 --> 00:23:45,640 And so this becomes systemic corruption with very, very deleterious consequences. 202 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,330 It's distorted the governance and the political environment, 203 00:23:49,330 --> 00:23:57,100 shifting away focus from good governance to corrupt enrichment in a country with very few social safety nets. 204 00:23:57,100 --> 00:24:03,100 Population growth population is at once a problem, but also an opportunity. 205 00:24:03,100 --> 00:24:09,070 It depends on how we handle it. Nigeria will be 400 million people by 2050. 206 00:24:09,070 --> 00:24:17,890 That could be a good thing if it was a skilled population, if it was a population where there was a focus on human development. 207 00:24:17,890 --> 00:24:24,310 But that's not the case. And if, as we do today, you have population growth running at 2.5 percent, 208 00:24:24,310 --> 00:24:32,920 when in the past five or six years we've not had economic growth, more than two percent, really, then it's a problem. 209 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:40,480 So if you have 400 million people and the population gets younger and younger and a lot of them have no jobs, 210 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:46,060 a lot of them do not have the skills that they need to create wealth for themselves. 211 00:24:46,060 --> 00:24:50,800 Then you have, you know, a recipe for possible social instability. 212 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:56,330 So that's that's even China, for whom its population has made it a great economic power. 213 00:24:56,330 --> 00:25:03,130 Most countries with big populations today, including in the emerging markets, have significant populations. 214 00:25:03,130 --> 00:25:09,880 So we can say it's always an advantage, except you have to make sure it's an advantage. 215 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:15,250 It's not going to advantage just because the people out there what's the quality of the mass of the people? 216 00:25:15,250 --> 00:25:25,600 That's what makes population an advantage. Even China had to control its population, so there might be something to to save for population control, 217 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,920 not necessarily the way they did it in China, but through education. 218 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:39,790 You know, in a voluntary way, but very strong campaigns about why we have to control our population growth. 219 00:25:39,790 --> 00:25:44,290 Then finally, Nigeria in the world? Well, Nigeria matters. 220 00:25:44,290 --> 00:25:52,450 In the world of this, there can be no question the reality is recognised even by the great powers and assured to some extent, 221 00:25:52,450 --> 00:25:58,290 by our population and by our economic size and the African continent. 222 00:25:58,290 --> 00:26:07,150 You know, so in recent years, we've gotten some of our citizens who lost US citizens elected to leadership positions in international organisations, 223 00:26:07,150 --> 00:26:11,830 though the World Trade Organisation, the African Development Bank and so on. 224 00:26:11,830 --> 00:26:13,990 But when you look a bit deeper, 225 00:26:13,990 --> 00:26:23,470 you will find that Nigeria remains far from achieving its potential as the beacon of the black race and world politics, 226 00:26:23,470 --> 00:26:28,030 the way that China has been a beacon for the Asians. 227 00:26:28,030 --> 00:26:36,880 You know, race is an important factor in international relations, even if it's not often discussed at diplomatic summits, 228 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:44,350 because with races you don't have worldviews and worldviews shape outcomes on the ground. 229 00:26:44,350 --> 00:26:51,040 And so, you know, so I think worldviews like that of the western world based on human rights, 230 00:26:51,040 --> 00:27:01,660 based on the Enlightenment and all those types of things have yielded a certain outcome that of China has yielded a certain outcome. 231 00:27:01,660 --> 00:27:03,700 What is the worldview of the black race? 232 00:27:03,700 --> 00:27:10,210 What does the world view of the African continent or what is the world view and what are the worldviews of individual African countries? 233 00:27:10,210 --> 00:27:20,920 So I felt that Nigeria has a destiny in this particular sphere that is still to be fulfilled early in our life as a country. 234 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:27,340 In the early 60s, foreign policy was always a subject of debate in domestic politics. 235 00:27:27,340 --> 00:27:34,960 You had people criticising Tafawa Balewa. Why are you allowing improvement to take centre stage in the world? 236 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:39,760 And of all that, I will defend themselves? Well, of course, he too was very respected international. 237 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:45,460 So, so you have today. Nobody discusses foreign policy inside Nigerian politics. 238 00:27:45,460 --> 00:27:54,100 No. And so when you do find a decline in the ability to effectively project our power 239 00:27:54,100 --> 00:27:59,830 and our interests because this depends to a large extent on domestic opposition, 240 00:27:59,830 --> 00:28:06,040 if you are economically strong, the likelihood that you will be able to project power and your interest is much higher. 241 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:12,220 South Korea, for example, joined the UN only in 1990, but in 1997 it had produced the secretary general. 242 00:28:12,220 --> 00:28:19,600 But that was just amazing. They did not see the need to join the UN for many, many years because they were focussed on something else. 243 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,570 But for many of us in Africa, immediately we became independent. 244 00:28:22,570 --> 00:28:29,240 The first thing was to go to international organisations and show our physical and psychological presence. 245 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:36,690 So. Then you have issues like despite Nigeria being Africa's largest country by GDP, 246 00:28:36,690 --> 00:28:42,600 we're not a member of certain clubs of the median global economic policy. 247 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:49,110 We're not a member of the BRICS. Some people would have argued that we should be and then it would be the Brink's. 248 00:28:49,110 --> 00:28:55,050 We're not a member of the G20. You know, so some of these kinds of things and then of course, 249 00:28:55,050 --> 00:29:02,040 our Foreign Service suffers from underinvestment, live in its operations, financially stressed. 250 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:12,150 And finally, in this area, you find Nigerians increasingly Nigeria increasingly unable to protect its citizens who suffer ill treatment abroad. 251 00:29:12,150 --> 00:29:18,270 And this creates frustrations for people at home, but on the path to resolution. 252 00:29:18,270 --> 00:29:28,800 The first, I must identify is electoral reform, because most of the problems that Nigeria faces come from the nature of its politics. 253 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:36,420 So the political domestic politics and you know, its malfunctions or dysfunctions, you know, have ramifications all across. 254 00:29:36,420 --> 00:29:43,440 So if you sort out how the leaders are selected or elected, then you begin the journey. 255 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:49,440 In my view, two to two, I'm here and in the area of electoral reform. 256 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,560 We've had some very positive developments lately, 257 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:58,500 a very encouraging one of which is an amendment of the Electoral Act to allow the independent National 258 00:29:58,500 --> 00:30:04,710 Electoral Commission conduct elections and collate votes and transmit the results electronically, 259 00:30:04,710 --> 00:30:11,550 which has the potential to sharply reduce the phenomenon of rigging. 260 00:30:11,550 --> 00:30:21,810 And we saw it happen in Anambra state. You know, despite some glitches that, well, there was really no rigging in the in the actual elections. 261 00:30:21,810 --> 00:30:31,200 Then you have the the provision that parties should now conduct their primaries directly, which is good. 262 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:37,500 So it doesn't allow the political grandees in the party to simply align their candidates. 263 00:30:37,500 --> 00:30:44,700 Party members vote for who they want to select to run any race for them, whether it's presidency or government. 264 00:30:44,700 --> 00:30:52,350 So these are encouraging developments, but I say that further reform is needed. 265 00:30:52,350 --> 00:31:04,370 The most important is the matter of money. Money controls politics in Nigeria, as it does in the United States and to a significant extent, the UK. 266 00:31:04,370 --> 00:31:13,880 I would argue, and there's been a lot of scope for corruption when you are talking about how to raise money to finance elections for parties. 267 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,960 I believe in the system like in Germany and a number of other European countries. 268 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,590 The government should finance political parties. 269 00:31:21,590 --> 00:31:28,430 The presidency of General Ibrahim Babangida did this in the in the 80s and early 90s, and I think it worked. 270 00:31:28,430 --> 00:31:36,320 The National Republican Convention and the Social Democratic Party were both financed by the state, and it was a more even contest for power. 271 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:44,000 I think we should return to this. Otherwise we will continue to have an even playing field for candidates and political parties. 272 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,980 And so there will be a lot of room for the phenomenon of dark money and influence peddling. 273 00:31:48,980 --> 00:31:53,870 Yeah. So I recommend a private money should be banned in Nigeria's electoral democracy. 274 00:31:53,870 --> 00:31:58,490 The second is citizen education and participation. 275 00:31:58,490 --> 00:32:02,120 This is very important to have a real democracy. 276 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:11,660 The third is the emergence of what I call transformational leadership, not just the emergence of politicians. 277 00:32:11,660 --> 00:32:16,910 Of course, the transitional leadership will emerge through a democratic process. 278 00:32:16,910 --> 00:32:24,530 But there's a difference between politics and leadership, and politics is simply a path to producing leadership. 279 00:32:24,530 --> 00:32:28,260 And we need to our system needs to appreciate this a lot more. 280 00:32:28,260 --> 00:32:36,680 We need to start looking for leaders, not just politicians, are looking for leaders amongst politicians. 281 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:41,150 Then we need a little consensus on youth participation. 282 00:32:41,150 --> 00:32:52,040 I believe that we need a consensus amongst our elites the most now revive themselves and begin to discuss the next leadership of our country. 283 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,270 Bearing in mind the problems that we're having that we've discussed and young people who 284 00:32:56,270 --> 00:33:02,270 make up 70 percent of the population need to be a leading part of this consensus building. 285 00:33:02,270 --> 00:33:09,370 And and these discussions and I recommend in that context selection. 286 00:33:09,370 --> 00:33:14,210 Before election. Yes. Let let young people, 287 00:33:14,210 --> 00:33:18,230 let's let's let let different interests come together and see whether they can 288 00:33:18,230 --> 00:33:22,760 achieve a consensus of the kind of profiles of leadership they would like to see. 289 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:27,620 And then do you put through the normal electoral process, then? 290 00:33:27,620 --> 00:33:34,550 I think fourth or fifth is that there needs to be a third force needs to emerge to accomplish this 291 00:33:34,550 --> 00:33:42,770 transition to transformational leadership with the benefit of youth support and elite consensus. 292 00:33:42,770 --> 00:33:49,250 So I believe that this step force is necessary. My own personal view, and I think is shared by a lot of people. 293 00:33:49,250 --> 00:33:59,390 Yes, I believe that that that force is necessary because the status quo, the way it has developed, the two major parties we have, 294 00:33:59,390 --> 00:34:07,490 I believe that at least in the short term and as they are constituted today, I'm able to take Nigeria forward politically, economically. 295 00:34:07,490 --> 00:34:13,940 And if you keep looking for salvation amongst them, it's like looking for a needle in a haystack. 296 00:34:13,940 --> 00:34:23,300 It's going to be difficult for specific individuals to overcome the system that brought them to power and the system, 297 00:34:23,300 --> 00:34:33,070 a system that exists for certain purposes that are not really aligned with with good, good governance, then constitutional reform. 298 00:34:33,070 --> 00:34:38,540 See, I deliberately did not start with this. Constitutional reform is very important. 299 00:34:38,540 --> 00:34:46,280 But we should not lose sight of the importance of leadership and leadership selection, because if you say it's just the structure, 300 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:55,160 that's the problem and you can do some view, then you just localise the problems that we've been having in a unitary context. 301 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:59,780 So constitutional reform to return majorettes a true federalism is necessary for political 302 00:34:59,780 --> 00:35:05,000 stability and to prevent some groups from feeling marginalised by the powers on the centre. 303 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:11,690 It is necessary for economic development because that's what will create an incentive for the diversification of the 304 00:35:11,690 --> 00:35:18,980 economy so long as the country is presently structured the way it is where the federal government owns mineral rights. 305 00:35:18,980 --> 00:35:23,900 The costs of of RET resources will continue in the country. 306 00:35:23,900 --> 00:35:33,350 I'll just wrap up very quickly. And then finally, a philosophical framework for the Nigerian economy is absent and is necessary. 307 00:35:33,350 --> 00:35:42,730 Why is a philosophical framework necessary? It is necessary because it will bring clarity, economic thinking. 308 00:35:42,730 --> 00:35:50,790 It will bring clarity to economic policy, and it will bring consistency in execution. 309 00:35:50,790 --> 00:36:00,600 Right now, the government is trying to go back to economic planning, but their plan is an architectural for action philosophies, a belief system. 310 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:08,310 It's better to plan based on something you believe rather than planning in a vacuum. 311 00:36:08,310 --> 00:36:14,940 I think if you look at every developed economy in the world, you can identify the economic philosophy they align themselves with. 312 00:36:14,940 --> 00:36:21,420 Most and most of the world, of course, today's capitalist. And but the question is what type of capitalism is it? 313 00:36:21,420 --> 00:36:26,490 Entrepreneurial capitalism? Is it welfare capitalism? Is it crony capitalism? 314 00:36:26,490 --> 00:36:29,610 Or is it what China calls state capitalism? 315 00:36:29,610 --> 00:36:38,730 So Nigeria has to come back, but I believe you need transformational leadership to emerge before we can engage with this subject. 316 00:36:38,730 --> 00:36:42,300 The skill and the depth that it requires. 317 00:36:42,300 --> 00:36:53,370 So let me just conclude and say that while many Nigerians may be gloomy about our country's prospects for its long delayed emergence, 318 00:36:53,370 --> 00:37:01,680 I see opportunities even as we must confront the challenges that we face on both political and economic fronts. 319 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:07,590 Nigeria has difficulties have been magnified in the past few years for a combination of reasons. 320 00:37:07,590 --> 00:37:15,570 But I believe that this phase will pass. Most pertinent is the concern about the country's national colonialism. 321 00:37:15,570 --> 00:37:23,550 That's a country troubled from birth. But I'm also an international lawyer, and I understand the doctrine of beauty possibilities. 322 00:37:23,550 --> 00:37:29,370 The territories that are conquered and war remain those of the person or the entity who conquered those territories. 323 00:37:29,370 --> 00:37:33,630 Except there is a treaty that abrogates That's right. 324 00:37:33,630 --> 00:37:39,450 So you cannot unscramble the scramble for Africa, much as we would like to. 325 00:37:39,450 --> 00:37:42,090 So I proceed from the basis of reality and. 326 00:37:42,090 --> 00:37:50,460 If you want to go back to recreate every African country, you know, based on all ethnic, convenient ethnic, you know, nations, you would have chaos. 327 00:37:50,460 --> 00:37:59,760 So challenge in our cities, we have to deal with it. We have to make Nigeria work for its 200 million people and do so as soon as possible. 328 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:05,520 The matter of the emergence of a visionary and transformational leadership is the key to progress. 329 00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,870 Can we utilise Democratic leadership to bust a transformation? 330 00:38:09,870 --> 00:38:16,620 This depends not so much on the politicians who we can predict will seek to defend their vested interests, 331 00:38:16,620 --> 00:38:27,510 but rather on the youth and the women of our country. The elections scheduled for 2023 will provide us with an opportunity to look beyond our habits, 332 00:38:27,510 --> 00:38:32,400 to look beyond our prejudices and to vote for our hopes and not our fears. 333 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:46,390 Thank you. Yeah. 334 00:38:46,390 --> 00:38:56,500 Thank you, I'd like to start by thanking Dr. Moghalu for his speech, which was excellent both in its backward looking dimensions. 335 00:38:56,500 --> 00:39:04,540 Looking into the Nigerian trajectory, but also a speech that was forward-looking and aspirational. 336 00:39:04,540 --> 00:39:06,130 Thank you very much. 337 00:39:06,130 --> 00:39:15,550 Before I open the floor to questions and comments from the audience, I would also like to thank two distinguished guests in our audience. 338 00:39:15,550 --> 00:39:22,630 The 14th emir of Kano and former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the current 339 00:39:22,630 --> 00:39:27,280 chair of the Royal African Society and former vice president of the World Bank. 340 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:32,790 It's a pleasure and obviously a privilege to have you with us today. 341 00:39:32,790 --> 00:39:39,530 It didn't say Mohammad descendants of the second. Oh, sorry, that means this. 342 00:39:39,530 --> 00:39:47,440 Think the everyone in Nigeria talking about? Exactly. So the floor is open to questions. 343 00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:56,920 I would just ask you to be brief in the questions so that we have not just the audience with us here today, but an extensive audience on lines. 344 00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,880 And we we are collecting questions from that online audience. 345 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:13,000 So if you can be very sharp, very brief, very to the point, we'd be very thankful, pleased ladies if we have not. 346 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:18,250 Hello, my name is soda, and thank you very much for a very interesting talk. 347 00:40:18,250 --> 00:40:25,990 And I just wanted to ask a question about policy, design and implementation in terms of the political point of view of engineer. 348 00:40:25,990 --> 00:40:32,530 You mentioned some of the sort of hindrances, for example, how corruption is embedded in the annual budget. 349 00:40:32,530 --> 00:40:40,300 So I know a lot of the time political economy sort of the vested interest hinders all of the development policies in the country. 350 00:40:40,300 --> 00:40:48,010 So do you think that policies should be designed and implemented to accommodate the political economy of vested interests? 351 00:40:48,010 --> 00:40:54,740 Or do you think they should model the ideal system that we once the conscience vote? 352 00:40:54,740 --> 00:41:01,380 An excellent question. Excellent question. I could answer that if we were off record. 353 00:41:01,380 --> 00:41:12,910 But I will answer it. I will say that as much as possible, you see every country has vested interests even in this country. 354 00:41:12,910 --> 00:41:21,120 There are vested interests. It is possible to meet vested interests in illegal ways. 355 00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:28,170 Perfectly appropriate ways if people want to make money and create an opportunity so long as there's a level playing field. 356 00:41:28,170 --> 00:41:31,920 That's the point. You don't go and just serve an interest. 357 00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:39,690 So that's one part of the answer to the question. The second part of the answer to the question is that leadership creates a framework. 358 00:41:39,690 --> 00:41:47,430 You can also bring from the vested interest along to see why we need a different way of doing things. 359 00:41:47,430 --> 00:41:58,230 And this would be my approach as well. That leadership should frame a new vision for the country and a new way that everyone in the country, 360 00:41:58,230 --> 00:42:02,130 including the previous vested interests, can find the opportunity. 361 00:42:02,130 --> 00:42:05,580 But we create wealth for the people. That's the point. 362 00:42:05,580 --> 00:42:10,530 The current system focuses on the vested interests and doesn't even think about the poor. 363 00:42:10,530 --> 00:42:22,250 I believe we should focus first on the poor and then take it from there. 364 00:42:22,250 --> 00:42:29,050 This is if your life is, I think, the people of mine. 365 00:42:29,050 --> 00:42:37,470 Yeah, maybe so I think we need to understand that vested interests differ and vary. 366 00:42:37,470 --> 00:42:47,190 So it's one thing to have US lobby groups pushing the interests of the oil sector or manufacturing or the entrance, he said. 367 00:42:47,190 --> 00:42:54,180 It to have vested interests, as you have in Nigeria, whose interest is who turned the state into a site for rent extraction. 368 00:42:54,180 --> 00:42:58,590 Yes. And these are interests that need to be rooted out them. 369 00:42:58,590 --> 00:43:07,750 And I don't think there's any accommodation with anyone who is not interested in the growth of the country, but just the extraction of rich. 370 00:43:07,750 --> 00:43:15,090 Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. Yeah, definitely. Yeah. 371 00:43:15,090 --> 00:43:26,070 Over there, the gentleman. Thank you very much. 372 00:43:26,070 --> 00:43:38,070 Is the opposite of Al Mustafa, associate editor of Supplement and Devoted much of our two questions for you. 373 00:43:38,070 --> 00:43:43,430 One is to you directly. You contested. 374 00:43:43,430 --> 00:43:52,500 I've been to 19, and hopefully my buddy will have got you out and we see things pretty pretty again. 375 00:43:52,500 --> 00:43:56,920 You mentioned very, very important concept. 376 00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:05,080 And yes, it's a country where things happen, the way it happens, because vested interests has been the key issue. 377 00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:14,520 You have that oil. We don't know exactly what will be disrupted the metering system as key problems. 378 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:19,980 The oil revenue for Benedict gets hot, a congested issue, 379 00:44:19,980 --> 00:44:29,610 which route network power through a very weak and nobody, everybody come to say, I would do this and that's. 380 00:44:29,610 --> 00:44:38,960 Do you think? You are very prepared to govern Nigeria. 381 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,860 In relation to the visit. 382 00:44:41,860 --> 00:44:53,020 And I'm very sure blue management did a better approach to manage diversity with competence and credibility of those who they put in a position. 383 00:44:53,020 --> 00:45:00,250 Absolutely. That's just what I would. Second question, please. Probably it will have to be a rhetorical question because we're very pressed for time. 384 00:45:00,250 --> 00:45:05,170 I'm sorry, but that's the first question is a very good debate already. 385 00:45:05,170 --> 00:45:08,380 Otherwise, the detailed. Yeah. Thank you for that question. 386 00:45:08,380 --> 00:45:16,270 I actually think that in terms of being a presidential aspirant, that is one of my most unique attributes. 387 00:45:16,270 --> 00:45:22,450 I am prepared to govern Nigeria and to manage its diversity. 388 00:45:22,450 --> 00:45:31,900 And I've been I've led a life that has prepared me for that diversity in terms of race or ethnic groups, diversity in terms of religion. 389 00:45:31,900 --> 00:45:36,640 I spent 17 years in the United Nations and that's the mother of all diversities. 390 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,840 That's 200 countries, different races, different religions in Nigeria. 391 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:47,320 I have worked in a very, very important national institution, 392 00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:54,520 which was the central bank of Nigeria when I was deputy governor again, where we had people from different parts of the country. 393 00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:59,530 And my career has had political sides, economic sides and other sites. 394 00:45:59,530 --> 00:46:04,280 These are the things that prepare you to manage the diversity in the country. 395 00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:09,130 So I feel yes. And I think importantly, 396 00:46:09,130 --> 00:46:21,070 I think I have the ability to articulate a vision that people can buy into and persuade even unwilling people to to to consider that vision. 397 00:46:21,070 --> 00:46:32,240 Some people have paid me some very interesting compliments, one of which was if you don't want to support Kingsley, just don't listen to him. 398 00:46:32,240 --> 00:46:38,780 Don't listen to him because we have questions from the online audience. 399 00:46:38,780 --> 00:46:43,850 This is from opener. How can you combine a political economy and a knowledge based economy? 400 00:46:43,850 --> 00:46:50,540 Is anyone better than the other with regards to Nigeria? Is anyone better with regards to Nigeria? 401 00:46:50,540 --> 00:46:56,900 Oh, I see. OK. Well, my vision for Nigeria is, first of all, a knowledge based economy. 402 00:46:56,900 --> 00:47:05,210 You see, you can create an economy that is based on knowledge that is based on innovation, which is why my focus is on young peoples. 403 00:47:05,210 --> 00:47:13,670 That's why my focus is on the fishmeal system because every country can only be as strong as weak as its educational system. 404 00:47:13,670 --> 00:47:23,060 It's the educational system that produces the human capital, and that educational system, in my view, should focus on productive knowledge skills. 405 00:47:23,060 --> 00:47:31,670 So yes, sir, if I may just interject this part of the paradox of the Nigerian educational commitment is that 406 00:47:31,670 --> 00:47:37,820 Nigerian elites and even the Nigerian Nigerian upper middle class as they make a massive commitment, 407 00:47:37,820 --> 00:47:44,270 financial commitment towards education, but they make it over here in the UK or in the United States or Canada. 408 00:47:44,270 --> 00:47:50,360 Yes, and that's a massive disincentive to build institutions inside the country because those 409 00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:56,430 institutions are not there to serve those that would normally be using those institutions. 410 00:47:56,430 --> 00:48:01,940 How would you change incentive structures around that? Well, first of all. 411 00:48:01,940 --> 00:48:12,020 You have had a political elite that does not understand and does not care because they steal public funds and come up with their kids in schools. 412 00:48:12,020 --> 00:48:16,190 That's selfish. They are not leaders. They don't have a vision. 413 00:48:16,190 --> 00:48:19,910 So they don't invest in education. 414 00:48:19,910 --> 00:48:26,960 As president, if I were president, it would be my primary investment right now, and it takes just about five percent of the budget. 415 00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:32,060 I will spend not less than 20 percent of the budget on education, but not just, 416 00:48:32,060 --> 00:48:34,970 you know, because sometimes when Nigeria, we think money solves problems. 417 00:48:34,970 --> 00:48:45,530 No, it's what is that 20 percent going to it will be carefully thought through, and that is one that must go into teacher training and retraining. 418 00:48:45,530 --> 00:48:48,050 It must go to curriculum reform. 419 00:48:48,050 --> 00:48:54,950 I believe the curriculum should move to 70 percent stem and entrepreneurship and 30 percent other things very specific. 420 00:48:54,950 --> 00:48:59,480 It's controversial, but that's my view. China. China did it. 421 00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,910 They did it because they want transformation. 422 00:49:01,910 --> 00:49:06,800 It's not because they didn't think lawyers were important or they didn't think philosophers were important. 423 00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:12,470 No, but I think there's a stage at which you have to fix certain steps to shift the paradigm. 424 00:49:12,470 --> 00:49:16,760 And so this is the approach I would take. We will invest in education and infrastructure. 425 00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:19,490 I've studied every child in any federal institution, 426 00:49:19,490 --> 00:49:25,310 if I would a president without a laptop because we can't afford it, we just have the wrong priorities. 427 00:49:25,310 --> 00:49:31,850 We invest in everything else instead of using public private partnerships to develop massive infrastructure. 428 00:49:31,850 --> 00:49:35,300 The government awards contracts so that public officials can get rich. 429 00:49:35,300 --> 00:49:41,390 So it's about, you know, shifting the paradigm with leadership and policy. 430 00:49:41,390 --> 00:49:48,830 Thank you. We have another online question, as this is from Madina. What policies and programmes are currently in place by the federal and state 431 00:49:48,830 --> 00:49:53,240 governments of Nigeria to reduce the unemployment rate that it is currently at? 432 00:49:53,240 --> 00:50:02,110 Twenty seven percent? The unemployment rate is to three percent, actually, and the youth unemployment is, I think, 433 00:50:02,110 --> 00:50:08,800 four to six percent, and youth unemployment and underemployment is over 5.5 percent. 434 00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:16,090 So it's actually worse than the question. But right now, there isn't as a lot of rhetoric. 435 00:50:16,090 --> 00:50:24,160 But the challenge is actually not being met. The way to meet the challenge of unemployment is to go back to education reform because 436 00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:29,260 right now the university and fisheries system is a pipeline into unemployment. 437 00:50:29,260 --> 00:50:35,290 Many people are not equipped to create jobs for themselves because they don't have the skills to. 438 00:50:35,290 --> 00:50:43,570 So that's where to start in a structural way. I've also said that if I were president, I would establish a venture capital fund not credit, 439 00:50:43,570 --> 00:50:54,070 but venture capital one trillion to give young people train them with skills, fund innovation and give people venture capital to start new businesses. 440 00:50:54,070 --> 00:51:00,200 So these are the kinds of approaches that I would use. I don't think they're being used now. 441 00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:08,290 Two. It's about skills very, very important about skills and then creating access to capital, access to capital needs skills. 442 00:51:08,290 --> 00:51:15,160 And a lot of young people can create their hustle. And that's what's happening, you know, for a small group of young people now. 443 00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:19,870 Imagine if you had. It's happening in spite of the government, not because of the government. 444 00:51:19,870 --> 00:51:24,970 So imagine if you had a government that says this is actually our way forward. 445 00:51:24,970 --> 00:51:34,300 So yes. And I said also because I have come out with a seven point agenda for the young people of this country. 446 00:51:34,300 --> 00:51:43,000 And I have said that one of the things we would also do is transitional support for unemployed young people for about six months, 447 00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,400 but that's uncertain conditions. 448 00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:52,840 You have to register for training and a skill, and we'll transition you over and I'm going to keep you permanently on the dole. 449 00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:58,120 But we will help you to find employment or create one. 450 00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:03,640 I can see at least six questions in the audience. So I'm going to we're going to there's one there, the gentleman. 451 00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:09,340 And then here and there and then over there. And while they're simple, please, as I said, please be brief. 452 00:52:09,340 --> 00:52:12,550 I will. I will try to be very brief. 453 00:52:12,550 --> 00:52:23,930 First and foremost, let me acknowledge the presence of His Royal Highness, the 14th Emir of Kano, Mohammed Sulmasy, the second drug smuggler. 454 00:52:23,930 --> 00:52:30,700 Thank you very much for very insightful talk I have known Kingsley for well over 30 35 years were classmates. 455 00:52:30,700 --> 00:52:40,690 40 40 years were classmates. Now you started your very interesting talk by looking at the homogeneous nature 456 00:52:40,690 --> 00:52:47,460 of the heterogeneous nature of Nigeria and how that has been a problem. 457 00:52:47,460 --> 00:52:56,020 My first sort of problem with that is that there's hardly any country in the world that is strictly homogeneous. 458 00:52:56,020 --> 00:53:06,370 So so there must be a problem with you with leadership and how we transition from from from nationalities to nation state. 459 00:53:06,370 --> 00:53:19,470 On the one hand, but what interests me in your talk is you seem to have looked at a third force as the way forward for Nigeria. 460 00:53:19,470 --> 00:53:29,340 My question is that Third Force is going to be made up of Nigerians from outer space or are you going to create 461 00:53:29,340 --> 00:53:37,380 this third force from the current stock of Nigerians who have been polluted for several years in nation building? 462 00:53:37,380 --> 00:53:40,320 Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. 463 00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:50,700 Bankole de la Benkler Balogun is an old friend who in secondary school together federal government college in the late seventies. 464 00:53:50,700 --> 00:53:55,890 Let me answer your question then. I know there's a lot of scepticism about, 465 00:53:55,890 --> 00:54:07,560 but I can also tell a truth that many Nigerians in 2019 people were not necessarily thinking the way they're thinking now. 466 00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:12,300 The country has deteriorated quite significantly between 2019 and now. 467 00:54:12,300 --> 00:54:19,440 And sometimes people begin to shift their views based on how bad and how hard things have become. 468 00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:27,210 Many people have scepticism about small parties, but if there were to be a third force, 469 00:54:27,210 --> 00:54:38,220 which is a merger of several small parties and people feel that this is a force that is clearly an alternative to the status quo, 470 00:54:38,220 --> 00:54:41,460 you will find a lot of support. 471 00:54:41,460 --> 00:54:47,970 That's really my answer to the question, but everything is about political strategy that that force will succeed based. 472 00:54:47,970 --> 00:54:53,880 If it has a political strategy that is effective, it will succeed if it can raise financing. 473 00:54:53,880 --> 00:55:02,820 They don't have governance who controls the resources that they can steal, but they can go to the people for crowd funding if the people want change. 474 00:55:02,820 --> 00:55:10,080 If one million Nigerians or two million Nigerians, the five key, you have 20 billion already. 475 00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:19,770 It's it's it's it's about the strategy, you know, and the message, so 2022 will be a very interesting year. 476 00:55:19,770 --> 00:55:23,700 I believe that a mighty wind will blow and Iraqis will fall. 477 00:55:23,700 --> 00:55:31,080 That's the way I think. And I think it's possible if you look at America, the way Trump came to power. 478 00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:36,960 If you look at France, the way Macron came to power, they again they beat conventional wisdom. 479 00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:47,310 Things that people did not think would happen happened. You can say, OK that Macron broke out from the major two party system and from want that way. 480 00:55:47,310 --> 00:55:51,120 And they made it. You might say that is France, not Nigeria. 481 00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:55,470 But I don't believe that is possible. I don't believe that that's necessarily correct. 482 00:55:55,470 --> 00:56:03,990 In 2015, most people thinking in the Nigerian, we did not believe an incumbent would focus off. 483 00:56:03,990 --> 00:56:09,840 But it happened because a number of factors came together. The time was right. 484 00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:17,020 The insecurity, the perceptions of corruption, weak leadership, all of this has created a vacuum. 485 00:56:17,020 --> 00:56:26,610 Again, something else happened between 2015 and now. So people have tried two of the main parties and many people. 486 00:56:26,610 --> 00:56:30,120 The key will lie with the youth. That's what I want to tell you. 487 00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:34,230 If if it's up to the poor, hungry villagers, the people can go and give money. 488 00:56:34,230 --> 00:56:40,410 I don't know what will happen, but if young people, many of whom are here today and many of who are listening, 489 00:56:40,410 --> 00:56:47,190 if they were to decide to fight their policy and engage with the political process, they have the numbers. 490 00:56:47,190 --> 00:56:55,040 So we intend to create our own electorates. Let me just reveal that to you. 491 00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:56,210 Well, first of all, 492 00:56:56,210 --> 00:57:11,990 I have to thank Oxford Martin School and reporter for this opportunity that you've given Professor Muller and also to focus on Nigeria. 493 00:57:11,990 --> 00:57:22,820 I'm offering your points about Nigeria's global credibility is one that I see and I see people not even recognising Nigeria, 494 00:57:22,820 --> 00:57:29,670 even though I think that where Nigeria goes is where Africa goes and where Nigeria goes is where the world goes. 495 00:57:29,670 --> 00:57:39,820 And I have a I have an addition to what you said as to why what would make a third force work in Nigeria? 496 00:57:39,820 --> 00:57:43,930 If people gave up their personal interests. 497 00:57:43,930 --> 00:57:50,770 If that Fed force is really focussed on coming together as a third force, yes, don't give up my personal interests. 498 00:57:50,770 --> 00:57:56,830 Yes, it will not happen. The question that I have for you, even though you have a slightly different view. 499 00:57:56,830 --> 00:58:07,660 I do agree that Nigerians need to solve problems. But what do you think the West the rich nations can do to help? 500 00:58:07,660 --> 00:58:13,930 Because sometimes when you are removed from a situation, you do have power that those institutions don't have. 501 00:58:13,930 --> 00:58:25,960 Thank you. Thank you. The West and their possible role in the resolution to the Nigerian crisis is a question that comes up a lot. 502 00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:30,010 I think. I assume I was president of Nigeria. 503 00:58:30,010 --> 00:58:40,120 Let's just start from. Because when people who don't have the worldview, when people who don't have the exposure, 504 00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:44,860 the experience of international relations and diplomacy are the ones making 505 00:58:44,860 --> 00:58:50,620 decisions about how our relationship with the West can be more mutually beneficial. 506 00:58:50,620 --> 00:58:56,390 It's not going to work. The world view is to go around the world with a begging bowl. 507 00:58:56,390 --> 00:59:04,730 Oh, we have a problem in the Northeast. Give us money. All we have is give us, this is just not a place I operate from. 508 00:59:04,730 --> 00:59:09,290 I will say to the West, Here is your vested interests. 509 00:59:09,290 --> 00:59:15,920 Yes, your enlightened self-interest in a Nigeria that works. 510 00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:22,510 And that interest will benefit us all. Your companies can come and do business, I don't mind so long as they create jobs. 511 00:59:22,510 --> 00:59:29,990 You see what I'm saying? You know, here's how we can negotiate a mutually workable outcome. 512 00:59:29,990 --> 00:59:39,410 But I do believe that the primary solution for Nigeria's problems will have to come from Nigerians themselves. 513 00:59:39,410 --> 00:59:46,700 But, you know, the country's big, big economy and of course, several angles from which the West is important. 514 00:59:46,700 --> 00:59:54,020 And I think someone who understands international relations, someone who's exposed someone who can strike, you know, 515 00:59:54,020 --> 01:00:02,090 beneficial deals can deal with the West in a way that is mutual, that Nigeria's interests are not shortchanged. 516 01:00:02,090 --> 01:00:05,930 But you don't want the West into your enemy. I don't think it's necessary. 517 01:00:05,930 --> 01:00:09,780 I'm not interested in being Fidel Castro of Nigeria. No. 518 01:00:09,780 --> 01:00:14,870 And then, you know, people who spent 20 years trying to kill PetSmart. 519 01:00:14,870 --> 01:00:19,290 Not interested in that? Yeah. You know, so. So they didn't manage to. 520 01:00:19,290 --> 01:00:28,970 Yeah, Castro did well. But it's so interesting that Win-Win scenario and I think it comes to negotiate. 521 01:00:28,970 --> 01:00:37,330 Yeah. There's the question, this gentleman and lady over there. 522 01:00:37,330 --> 01:00:39,700 Thank you so much for your very nice talk. 523 01:00:39,700 --> 01:00:47,170 I have a lot of questions for you, but we're just focus to one of them is just taking off from the issue you spoke about now, 524 01:00:47,170 --> 01:00:55,090 which is interest of the different parties. So does this talk about restructuring Nigeria adopt true federalism, 525 01:00:55,090 --> 01:01:01,630 but it appears as though this opposition to that view from a region of the country, mostly the North. 526 01:01:01,630 --> 01:01:07,420 My question is like given the policy makers have come to see that this is probably the best thing to do. 527 01:01:07,420 --> 01:01:14,800 How do we get other people to understand the incentives for this new system because it appears as though they are trying 528 01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:20,440 to protect their interest and then no one is trying to tell them what their interest is going to be in the future system? 529 01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,890 But then have nothing like real practical steps about how to do that. 530 01:01:23,890 --> 01:01:31,030 So that's one question. The second one is what will be the logistics of the government's actually funding campaigns of different political parties. 531 01:01:31,030 --> 01:01:33,160 How many parties can be allowed to contest? 532 01:01:33,160 --> 01:01:40,510 What will be the criteria for registering parties and how will the current system, which is currently existing, fits into that? 533 01:01:40,510 --> 01:01:49,790 Yeah, the first the first question, it's a very important question, and it's addressed in my speech, but I didn't have time to elaborate. 534 01:01:49,790 --> 01:01:53,980 First of all, I don't agree that it is the case now. 535 01:01:53,980 --> 01:02:00,580 Perhaps I can enlighten us more, but that the MOF is opposed to restructuring. 536 01:02:00,580 --> 01:02:09,530 There are elements. People outside of the North that were very sceptical about restructuring. 537 01:02:09,530 --> 01:02:16,760 For example, the former military leadership class, which brought in more of the unitary system. 538 01:02:16,760 --> 01:02:25,400 But if you notice most of them, even the Babangida as Obasanjo, they will insist that this is how a society evolves. 539 01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:31,700 People argue, people debate and then things are happening. And then you begin to see that your position is no longer tenable. 540 01:02:31,700 --> 01:02:42,680 There are two things about managing the interests of any region that feels that if we stop everybody going to get a federal allocation account, 541 01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:46,760 the federal allocation, Clinton's life will stop tomorrow morning. 542 01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:53,690 I propose that there has to be a transitional period in the revenue allocation formula. 543 01:02:53,690 --> 01:02:57,950 You do not create a new constitution and tomorrow morning, voila. No. 544 01:02:57,950 --> 01:03:04,730 You create a transitional period so that different parts of the country will prepare themselves. 545 01:03:04,730 --> 01:03:13,430 That's number one. Two. If you are even looking at a resource endowment as a basis for wealth creation, which I don't believe in. 546 01:03:13,430 --> 01:03:22,480 But since we have the resources, we'll it to wealth. How? Look at the solid minerals in the northern part of the country. 547 01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:29,260 I'm sorry. Yeah. Look at the solid minerals all over the country. 548 01:03:29,260 --> 01:03:33,850 They come in a federal, a proper federal state where the state owned. 549 01:03:33,850 --> 01:03:39,580 Those resources are the regions on those resources. That's actually the future oil is in the past. 550 01:03:39,580 --> 01:03:47,230 These are the things you explain. And that future. How can you benefit from it in a way that avoids the mistakes we made with oil? 551 01:03:47,230 --> 01:03:51,970 One, I would argue that it shouldn't be foreign investment in natural resources without a 552 01:03:51,970 --> 01:03:57,700 component for value addition for beneficiation before it's exported out of the country to. 553 01:03:57,700 --> 01:04:04,600 If you come to the mouth to establish industries around solid minerals, you create training institutes for young people. 554 01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:13,450 It's part of the deal you create. You have to create a workforce that will help you extract those industries and add value to them. 555 01:04:13,450 --> 01:04:20,500 That's jobs for thousands of people. So these are some of the ways that you can negotiate and bring. 556 01:04:20,500 --> 01:04:28,510 You know, I believe in what is called manufacturing consent or manufacturing consensus. 557 01:04:28,510 --> 01:04:35,750 Many people have given up in Nigeria because the kind of leaders who can articulate a vision and manufacture consensus around it. 558 01:04:35,750 --> 01:04:39,370 I've not yet come up because the system is not allowing them to come. 559 01:04:39,370 --> 01:04:44,020 So therefore, everybody in Nigeria feels this is an impossible country. We should just go our separate ways. 560 01:04:44,020 --> 01:04:49,350 You know, I don't think so like like, I think they said. 561 01:04:49,350 --> 01:04:53,070 There are very few countries that are totally homogeneous, 562 01:04:53,070 --> 01:05:01,380 so I don't see what is so impossible about managing our diversity or managing the different interests that exists. 563 01:05:01,380 --> 01:05:08,700 Everybody may not get ideally what they want, but you can create, you know, a win win situation. 564 01:05:08,700 --> 01:05:15,000 Yeah. Well, I can see at least six or seven questions in the audience and many more online. 565 01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:19,050 I think they are, but unfortunately, we're just 10 minutes past the hour. 566 01:05:19,050 --> 01:05:23,490 So I'm going to give you Your Royal Highness the last word. 567 01:05:23,490 --> 01:05:30,720 And from that point onwards, we'll close the session. You had to think. 568 01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:35,930 Well, OK, OK, OK, OK. 569 01:05:35,930 --> 01:05:44,160 I believe the question was what was to comment your entree to contest for the presidency? 570 01:05:44,160 --> 01:05:51,540 Presidential candidates in a country like Nigeria, are you getting me out front three? 571 01:05:51,540 --> 01:05:56,760 What was your first choice? 572 01:05:56,760 --> 01:06:04,830 Without doubt because of both of you got that one crystal grits one? 573 01:06:04,830 --> 01:06:08,730 Well, how do you want to get there? Is it a question? Are you get what I'm saying? 574 01:06:08,730 --> 01:06:20,180 When you have the likes of talk about, Well, I need to talk to content, which is a contextual I'm not going to win a competition. 575 01:06:20,180 --> 01:06:25,590 Is the contention the competition a contention? 576 01:06:25,590 --> 01:06:30,170 I would say that is an excellent last question. Yeah. Thank you. 577 01:06:30,170 --> 01:06:36,750 Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, of course one cannot. 578 01:06:36,750 --> 01:06:40,120 It's a lot of things are about strategy, 579 01:06:40,120 --> 01:06:49,140 and you will understand that we have some detailed plans and detailed thinking that I may not be able to reveal in detail. 580 01:06:49,140 --> 01:06:55,620 But I would say that we want to go to the people. 581 01:06:55,620 --> 01:07:06,180 With a message that will resonate with them, we want to mobilise resources because we know that you cannot fight elections without money. 582 01:07:06,180 --> 01:07:10,770 You don't need the same type of money like certain people you may be mentioning. 583 01:07:10,770 --> 01:07:16,650 I don't need to have that money. What I need is a basic, you know, 584 01:07:16,650 --> 01:07:21,780 cache of resources that allows us to do the things we need to do because a 585 01:07:21,780 --> 01:07:25,920 lot of the big resources in the traditional Nigerian politics go to football, 586 01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:33,990 they go to settle in godfathers must now look out. So half of that money actually doesn't go into the election, goes into private pockets. 587 01:07:33,990 --> 01:07:40,470 So. So the point is that you have to ask people some basic questions. 588 01:07:40,470 --> 01:07:45,210 You must get into their minds what can make them change? 589 01:07:45,210 --> 01:07:55,440 What can make them do things they have not done before? What can make them respond to the power of such a political, you know, 590 01:07:55,440 --> 01:08:03,690 people in a way that they have not before the electoral reform is beginning to help the michael delay transformation of us. 591 01:08:03,690 --> 01:08:10,610 It helps. We intend that every polling booth of us will be manned on like 20 minutes. 592 01:08:10,610 --> 01:08:16,050 You know, these are lessons we have learnt. So there will be messaging and there will be structures. 593 01:08:16,050 --> 01:08:19,690 We are going to create our structures on the ground in every polling unit. 594 01:08:19,690 --> 01:08:20,940 We've already started that. 595 01:08:20,940 --> 01:08:29,400 It's not there's no big fanfare about it, but we are setting up our structures across the country and over the next three, four or five months. 596 01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:34,440 By May, June, I think we'll be in a very different place and a lot of things will also help 597 01:08:34,440 --> 01:08:41,040 us that we ourselves are not doing the the infighting in the APC and the PDP, 598 01:08:41,040 --> 01:08:46,770 the two parties. I concluded it will also have some advantage from a point of view of strategy. 599 01:08:46,770 --> 01:08:53,730 So it's a combination of the things we will do and some serendipity, which always happens when change will happen. 600 01:08:53,730 --> 01:08:59,940 Again, I refer you to Barack Obama. Somebody said, Oh, you're doing these things, but oh, it's a two party system. 601 01:08:59,940 --> 01:09:08,580 I said, If you must have a two party system in Nigeria, if you really must, then the APC and the PDP should match and then we have the third force. 602 01:09:08,580 --> 01:09:27,210 Yes, because there is a party. Thank you, Kingsley, and please join me in thanking our distinguished guests with great.