1 00:00:02,500 --> 00:00:07,070 Hey, welcome to the USD talk. 2 00:00:07,070 --> 00:00:11,230 And I'm just going to introduce now in Professor Ian Golden. 3 00:00:11,230 --> 00:00:15,820 Ian is the professor of globalisation and development at Oxford. 4 00:00:15,820 --> 00:00:22,750 He at the Martin School. He is the director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technological Economic Change. 5 00:00:22,750 --> 00:00:26,770 He also the founding director of the school and led it through its first decade. 6 00:00:26,770 --> 00:00:31,250 So it's a great pleasure to to welcome Ian today. 7 00:00:31,250 --> 00:00:36,070 He's going to be talking about his beautifully presented new book, Terra Incognita, 8 00:00:36,070 --> 00:00:44,110 which has garnered accolades from sources as diverse as comedian Stephen Fry and Lord Martin Rees, the Astronomer Royal. 9 00:00:44,110 --> 00:00:51,880 And it will speak for about 35 minutes, I think. And then there is plenty of time for him to answer your questions. 10 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:56,020 Now, if you look on the bottom right, the screen is a button. 11 00:00:56,020 --> 00:01:04,130 You can click ask a question. So please, at any point, just add your questions to that list and note that you can also vote on questions. 12 00:01:04,130 --> 00:01:09,160 So that's your way of pushing questions you like to the top of the pile. 13 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:16,270 So please use both of those functions. And I now give you here to talk about his book. 14 00:01:16,270 --> 00:01:23,560 Thank you very much, Julian, and welcome to everyone. It's a great pleasure to introduce Terra Incognita. 15 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:30,790 It's a book which spans over a vast array of areas and really would not have been possible 16 00:01:30,790 --> 00:01:38,410 if I had not been at the Oxford Martin School able to benefit from the extraordinary range, 17 00:01:38,410 --> 00:01:41,120 breadth and depth of work that is done. 18 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:49,480 And as you'll see, many of the topics covered in the book are those which are the focus of individual work programmes in the school. 19 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:55,150 And it's been a enormous pleasure as part of this process to be able to consult with colleagues, 20 00:01:55,150 --> 00:02:02,830 but also to draw on incredible data and not least the data of our world in data. 21 00:02:02,830 --> 00:02:12,160 And Max Roser and his team, who've done such an amazing job of creating a database which is publicly available. 22 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:21,460 The book was co-authored with Rob Mugga, who lived in Rio based in Rio. 23 00:02:21,460 --> 00:02:28,810 So this was a book which long before we were forced to, was largely done through our virtual connexion. 24 00:02:28,810 --> 00:02:38,290 And many of the maps presented in the book are done by the Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and the CREATE Lab there, 25 00:02:38,290 --> 00:02:45,430 which is at the forefront of analysis of data, satellite imagery making. 26 00:02:45,430 --> 00:02:48,910 And so this has been in many respects, a three way collaboration, 27 00:02:48,910 --> 00:02:59,020 although so many others have been involved because it spans an enormous variety of different areas. 28 00:02:59,020 --> 00:03:11,710 As you'll see from this table of contents, the maps cover a vast range of different areas globalisation, 29 00:03:11,710 --> 00:03:17,710 climate change and urbanisation, technology, inequality. 30 00:03:17,710 --> 00:03:21,370 Geopolitics. Violence, demography. Migration, food, health. 31 00:03:21,370 --> 00:03:31,740 Education, culture. But only in this 30 minutes, going to touch on a couple of the areas I clearly can't give full. 32 00:03:31,740 --> 00:03:38,280 Well, just but we've identified 100 maps in the book, which we think will help people think about the future. 33 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:42,880 It's a grand claim, 100 maps to survive the next hundred years. 34 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:48,820 But what we hope is that the book provides perspectives that if we act. 35 00:03:48,820 --> 00:03:55,790 On both survive and thrive in the next hundred years, we live in a extraordinarily perplexing time. 36 00:03:55,790 --> 00:04:02,610 More happening more quickly than at any time in history. And of course, Covered 19 has highlighted that. 37 00:04:02,610 --> 00:04:11,940 But we also have the ability, not least through our new data analytics and ability to see ourselves at the microscopic level, 38 00:04:11,940 --> 00:04:22,800 whether it's a virus or at the macroscopic level, whether it's the earth from space and the universe in ways that were unimaginable only 10 years ago. 39 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:32,690 And it's that richness which we've sought to draw on in helping gain perspective, which we hope allows readers to make better decisions. 40 00:04:32,690 --> 00:04:39,120 And through those better decisions that we will survive because we are at a crossroads for humanity. 41 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:46,710 The decisions we take will influence the world for many generations to come. 42 00:04:46,710 --> 00:04:55,920 Why terra incognita? Well, we chose the title because it's unknown world. 43 00:04:55,920 --> 00:05:04,590 We've always lived in an unknown world. And as the maps drawn on the earliest caves 20000 thousand years ago illustrate, 44 00:05:04,590 --> 00:05:11,190 we've used maps to try and think about the way that the world operates around us, 45 00:05:11,190 --> 00:05:17,520 to place ourselves in the context and to place other people in other places. 46 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:29,370 But not only people and places. Animals, of course, were amongst the first Reppert represented in these maps as well as Flora. 47 00:05:29,370 --> 00:05:35,790 On the early early maps of twenty thousand years ago, maps have evolved and when? 48 00:05:35,790 --> 00:05:41,700 Need be aware of the fact that they are a snapshot of what we know today. 49 00:05:41,700 --> 00:05:50,410 And so looking back at maps, one sees these extraordinary images like these of maps. 50 00:05:50,410 --> 00:05:59,270 We did not accurately reflect the world. But Tom Analise, famous geography here from 81 50. 51 00:05:59,270 --> 00:06:05,380 A flat world. Limited world. A world with dragons and angels at the edges. 52 00:06:05,380 --> 00:06:12,700 And as I argued in my book, Age of Discovery, it was that revolution to be able to see the world as a whole, 53 00:06:12,700 --> 00:06:22,810 to be able to circumnavigate, be able to have compass direction, which led to the transformation along which brought us the Renaissance. 54 00:06:22,810 --> 00:06:30,940 It's a fundamentally significant thing for us of how we imagine a world where we see ourselves in proportion to others, 55 00:06:30,940 --> 00:06:37,480 to other places and to other parts of our incredible universe. 56 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:44,410 We've all been absorbed in maps in dramatic ways in recent months and yet since February. 57 00:06:44,410 --> 00:06:49,240 And I think there's been no time in history where more people have been looking at maps. 58 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:56,860 The maps of the spread of the novel coronavirus covered 19 from. 59 00:06:56,860 --> 00:07:04,180 The source in Wertheim, and as we've seen these expanding circles here represented in the John Hopkins map, 60 00:07:04,180 --> 00:07:09,850 we understand not only how the virus has spread following the arteries of globalisation, 61 00:07:09,850 --> 00:07:15,030 but, of course, how different countries have done so differently. 62 00:07:15,030 --> 00:07:21,090 Even within the US, how different states have done so differently within Europe, 63 00:07:21,090 --> 00:07:27,630 how different countries have done so differently, and the same is true in Africa. 64 00:07:27,630 --> 00:07:33,390 And what this allows us to use maps to do is not only to chart the progress, 65 00:07:33,390 --> 00:07:42,240 but also understand the differences and try and make sense of the very, very different dimensions of this change. 66 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,420 And as the corona virus has absorbed us in MAP. 67 00:07:45,420 --> 00:07:53,850 So to have the ideas around what can be done about it, whether globalisation is going to be stopped by it, 68 00:07:53,850 --> 00:07:58,800 and how we can have a connected world without being vulnerable. 69 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:05,120 And that has been the subject of much of my previous work. 70 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:14,570 The first chapter of the book is about globalisation, and I seek in this to display the sinews of globalisation, 71 00:08:14,570 --> 00:08:23,150 to show how the arteries of globalisation have created the most rapid progress for more people, 72 00:08:23,150 --> 00:08:28,070 more quickly than any force in the history of humanity. 73 00:08:28,070 --> 00:08:37,520 And it's that connectivity which. Is absolutely vital for us today. 74 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:51,750 The connectivity that comes from globalisation, whether it's the Internet and you will connecting to my talk today or whether it's the ability of. 75 00:08:51,750 --> 00:08:58,530 Different societies to engage in commerce, financial transactions, and, of course, 76 00:08:58,530 --> 00:09:10,140 to share good ideas like the Metoo Movement and Black Lives Matter and bad ideas like those involved in very dangerous take news anti 77 00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:22,410 vaccination movements and spread all the Autry's of globalisation as we show both the super spreaders of goods as well as pad's. 78 00:09:22,410 --> 00:09:26,520 These slides that I'm showing will come to an end and then you'll see my face, 79 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:31,390 because I gather that some of you are concerned that you can't see me, I'm afraid that's the limit of the system. 80 00:09:31,390 --> 00:09:36,650 Yeah, you should have a little snapshot of me at the bottom of your screens. 81 00:09:36,650 --> 00:09:40,680 But when we get to Q&A, you will see that it indeed is me speaking. 82 00:09:40,680 --> 00:09:48,690 And what I look like. So globalisation has been an immensely powerful force for good. 83 00:09:48,690 --> 00:09:52,740 But it's also poses the grave threats we face. 84 00:09:52,740 --> 00:10:04,860 And so what we try and analyse in this book is how we can manage the sinews of the system, whether it's the fibre optics, the transport. 85 00:10:04,860 --> 00:10:12,630 The financial or the other links to ensure that we are able to harvest the opportunities and mitigate the threats. 86 00:10:12,630 --> 00:10:19,710 As I discuss in my book, The Butterfly Defect, globalisation endemically creates systemic risks. 87 00:10:19,710 --> 00:10:28,230 And by mapping its connectivity, we begin to get a sense of not only how it's connected, 88 00:10:28,230 --> 00:10:31,860 but also, of course, where the critical nodes and networks are. 89 00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:38,490 And it's these critical nodes and networks that are the weak links in the system. 90 00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:43,400 There are many ways of reflecting globalisation and the unevenness of it. 91 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:49,680 The dramatic inequalities in it. This is an representation of phones, 92 00:10:49,680 --> 00:11:00,540 computers and other connected devices and submarine cables that connect continents with fibre optics and information. 93 00:11:00,540 --> 00:11:11,250 It shows the extraordinary density, the luminosity in white of the highly populated and wealthier places. 94 00:11:11,250 --> 00:11:20,990 It also shows the vast spaces of darkness. Some of these, of course, due to desert's mountain ranges. 95 00:11:20,990 --> 00:11:27,290 The north and south, but what comes out of this very strongly is that some densely populated places, 96 00:11:27,290 --> 00:11:33,330 not least in Africa and Central Asia, are not connected. 97 00:11:33,330 --> 00:11:36,480 There are other ways of representing globalisation. 98 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:48,270 This is trade flows, and what we see here is each dot in this representing ten million dollars of the flow of manufactured rice. 99 00:11:48,270 --> 00:11:54,090 And what we show by doing snapshots over time is how this is dramatically changing, 100 00:11:54,090 --> 00:12:04,800 particularly how China has come into the equation and how much more rapid trade within Europe has been since the establishment of the European Union. 101 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:16,530 How extraordinary, robust, new, effective. We have these three poles of globalisation in East Asia, in Europe and in the Americas. 102 00:12:16,530 --> 00:12:23,550 And it's these representations which give us a much better sense of what happens if you engage, for example, 103 00:12:23,550 --> 00:12:33,850 in a Cold War and try and disconnect these different parts of the system because they are so integrated. 104 00:12:33,850 --> 00:12:39,890 Of course, the underbelly of much of globalisation is is. 105 00:12:39,890 --> 00:12:45,270 Part of the band's. Climate change and things like plastic. 106 00:12:45,270 --> 00:12:55,540 And what this representation of plastic waste shows is how, although it is concentrated in rapidly growing places, it doesn't need to be so. 107 00:12:55,540 --> 00:13:08,020 We see the extraordinary clean up of the beaches of the Mediterranean, which used to look like the beaches of the catchment areas in China, 108 00:13:08,020 --> 00:13:13,240 in Vietnam and in other places, these big blue circles represented in Asia. 109 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:23,260 And you also see the relatively low levels of plastic waste in parts of the US represented by these blue bubbles, 110 00:13:23,260 --> 00:13:27,790 the size of the bubbles representing the amount of waste. 111 00:13:27,790 --> 00:13:33,370 So one of the things we can also do with these maps is that we can do something about it. 112 00:13:33,370 --> 00:13:40,240 The chapter in the book on climate change benefits from extraordinary images which exist in many, 113 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:47,580 many, many dimensions, but they are startling and very worrying in many ways. 114 00:13:47,580 --> 00:13:52,390 The time lapses we have of the Amazon show how it is being eroded. 115 00:13:52,390 --> 00:14:00,610 This is Amazon being overtaken by farmland. The deforestation of the Amazon over the years. 116 00:14:00,610 --> 00:14:06,310 And you see this vivid portrayal from these maps of and out of the forest. 117 00:14:06,310 --> 00:14:13,420 Turning to farmland, the slash and burn the fires. And there are many ways in which we show this. 118 00:14:13,420 --> 00:14:19,510 What are the most neglected impacts of climate change is on the third pole. 119 00:14:19,510 --> 00:14:30,280 The ice caps of the world, the Himalayans ice cap, the other polls, of course, the Arctic and Antarctic. 120 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:37,030 And what you see from these satellite images, and we have a variety of them in the book, is The Melting of the glaciers. 121 00:14:37,030 --> 00:14:43,720 Here we comparing 1984 and 9th and 2019. 122 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:50,110 Both Rob and I have hiked in the glaciers in the Himalayas. 123 00:14:50,110 --> 00:14:55,600 And I've been to the north and south, the Arctic and Antarctic, and taken photographs, 124 00:14:55,600 --> 00:15:01,270 which we used to display this extraordinary collapse of this massive, 125 00:15:01,270 --> 00:15:15,190 massive ability, the fires we used to depict, not least the fires in the Arctic, the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and elsewhere. 126 00:15:15,190 --> 00:15:20,440 You'll be familiar with the fact that we're in the hottest period in a billion years. 127 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:30,370 But what we have in the book is images which are startling in terms of the ability to display using satellite imagery, 128 00:15:30,370 --> 00:15:38,290 the changes in temperature over time, and that basically the redder it gets, the hotter it guests. 129 00:15:38,290 --> 00:15:46,530 And there's an extra whole process of global warming coming from climate change. 130 00:15:46,530 --> 00:15:51,870 We also display that the changes over time of greenhouse gas emissions, 131 00:15:51,870 --> 00:16:01,470 you see in this early image of 1970 that the US was by far the biggest emitter, much bigger than China, for example. 132 00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:10,530 And by the time we get further, as China grows, its share gets bigger the size of the circle representing the size of the emissions. 133 00:16:10,530 --> 00:16:21,690 And now China, much bigger than the US, enabling us to see the relative proportions of different places. 134 00:16:21,690 --> 00:16:31,400 What I found startling and wasn't aware of before I did this book was the impact of pollution on people's life expectancy. 135 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:40,350 The yellow circles reflect how many people die of air pollution and the red circles from homicides, from murders. 136 00:16:40,350 --> 00:16:50,270 And what you see here is that for most parts of the world, pollution is a far bigger killer than. 137 00:16:50,270 --> 00:16:54,890 Homicide and this is not least the case in Africa, where indoor air pollution, 138 00:16:54,890 --> 00:17:03,260 people cooking and heating in their homes leads to these high levels of death. 139 00:17:03,260 --> 00:17:05,180 This really puts things in proportion. 140 00:17:05,180 --> 00:17:16,470 If we gave the attention to climate and to indoor air pollution that we give to homicides, I think we would act more strongly against them. 141 00:17:16,470 --> 00:17:20,490 This is fires and another dimension of climate change that we portray. 142 00:17:20,490 --> 00:17:26,640 And you see the fires spreading and the seasonality of it over time. 143 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:36,990 We've mapped in the book using satellite imagery and projections the impact of climate change on different coastal areas. 144 00:17:36,990 --> 00:17:48,060 And here you see the impact on Florida of climate change, a massive disappearance effectively of much of Florida. 145 00:17:48,060 --> 00:17:52,320 You see Miami completely underwater with four degrees. 146 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:58,130 But even with two degrees, much of Florida would disappear. 147 00:17:58,130 --> 00:18:10,160 This is not true only of Florida. It's true of other parts of the world as we show this is the Netherlands underwater as a result of climate change. 148 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,270 Of course, they will work hard and they're very good at it to stop this. 149 00:18:14,270 --> 00:18:20,840 But we believe that from me, rivers and other flows, this will become increasingly difficult. 150 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:25,640 And we do that for many places. This relates, of course, to the future of cities. 151 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:30,010 And we use many, many different images in the book to discuss these. 152 00:18:30,010 --> 00:18:36,110 But one of the things that's highlighted from this image, which is the growth of Las Vegas, 153 00:18:36,110 --> 00:18:41,360 is that if you have enough money, you can effectively live in the desert. 154 00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:51,290 You can survive at four degrees, a temperature increase and you pipe water from further and deeper living. 155 00:18:51,290 --> 00:19:02,020 Of course, on energy intensive air conditioned Kirkwood's. That the growth of Las Vegas is sprawl and other dense urban areas. 156 00:19:02,020 --> 00:19:05,590 We chart like, for example, Dubai in the desert. 157 00:19:05,590 --> 00:19:16,150 We show the changes in Dubai's landscape are testament to the fact of how inequality will change as a result of climate change. 158 00:19:16,150 --> 00:19:22,900 The chapter on technology looks at the origins of technological change, where it's going and how it's likely to impact on us. 159 00:19:22,900 --> 00:19:31,120 And this is one image that draws on work from my group in the Oxford Martin School, which shows patents and their distribution not clearly. 160 00:19:31,120 --> 00:19:41,200 Patents are not being developed over the Atlantic Ocean, as you see from the dots here between Europe and the Americas. 161 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,280 But it reflects collaboration between these different areas. 162 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:55,000 And it's that collaboration which is the heart of innovation, collaboration within cities, between teams and between countries. 163 00:19:55,000 --> 00:20:01,380 And again, will be a terrible consequence of a Cold War. 164 00:20:01,380 --> 00:20:06,660 Deep learning and its evolution is something we discuss and you see here an 165 00:20:06,660 --> 00:20:11,550 analysis of where it's happening and the changing role of different places, 166 00:20:11,550 --> 00:20:22,650 not least in Asia. Huge dominance from the coasts of the US, the north west and the East Coast, but also a growth in Europe. 167 00:20:22,650 --> 00:20:27,240 Very little, of course, in Africa or Latin America by comparison. 168 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,810 And that raises many questions of inclusion in that. 169 00:20:30,810 --> 00:20:39,990 Where is it going? Well, including in many places is, of course, electrification and the transformation of energy systems to wind and solar. 170 00:20:39,990 --> 00:20:44,190 And we chart the progress in that which is extremely encouraging. 171 00:20:44,190 --> 00:20:56,330 And you see over different times how now China is the largest producer of both solar and wind power. 172 00:20:56,330 --> 00:21:03,290 What we do in the book is look at the growth of renewable energy, but also where it's likely to go, 173 00:21:03,290 --> 00:21:14,360 an underside of technological change is the automation of jobs, the taking of jobs by robots, by automated systems. 174 00:21:14,360 --> 00:21:21,980 And that also draws on work in the Oxford Martin School that we've undertaken the future of work group that I'm responsible for, 175 00:21:21,980 --> 00:21:27,320 which is looking at this with Carl Frame, Michael Osborne and others. 176 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:33,140 And we chart how automation is likely to impact on different parts of the world. 177 00:21:33,140 --> 00:21:40,550 And you see the percentage of people at risk highlighting the point that this is not only a rich country issue on the country, 178 00:21:40,550 --> 00:21:49,840 there are many developing countries which are more at risk than rich countries where over 50 percent of the workforce are at risk. 179 00:21:49,840 --> 00:22:00,090 We spend. A lot of time in the book looking at the distributional consequences of these different dimensions of globalisation and change, 180 00:22:00,090 --> 00:22:04,830 not least with respect to income inequality. And there are many ways of looking at this. 181 00:22:04,830 --> 00:22:11,040 But one is to look at the lights at night to get a handle on what's happening. 182 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:20,370 What we do is compare, for example, Lagos. And you see it here in circles with New York, same sorts of populations. 183 00:22:20,370 --> 00:22:25,920 But New York, totally different in terms of its energy availability. 184 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:33,870 In fact, New York State, as we show, has more energy use than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. 185 00:22:33,870 --> 00:22:40,290 It also consumes more antibiotics than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. 186 00:22:40,290 --> 00:22:51,360 We draw on the latest research to look at the implications of soaring inequality on incomes, showing how the top zero point zero zero one percent, 187 00:22:51,360 --> 00:22:55,890 that's one in 100000 people have seen soaring incomes, 188 00:22:55,890 --> 00:23:07,080 while those in the lower distribution have seen their incomes decline in real terms, both before taxes and post-tax and redistribution. 189 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:13,740 And there's a number of charts in the book that display this, including by country, the stagnation of wages. 190 00:23:13,740 --> 00:23:21,090 This is the stagnation. The blue line in real wages in the U.S. is something that we consider. 191 00:23:21,090 --> 00:23:27,210 This has significant political consequences. We believe it's behind the rise in populism. 192 00:23:27,210 --> 00:23:32,820 We believe that we wouldn't have a Brexit in the UK or President Trump in the White House had 193 00:23:32,820 --> 00:23:38,550 it not been for the financial crisis and the rapid increase in inequality and unemployment, 194 00:23:38,550 --> 00:23:47,010 stagnating wages that accompany it. But how this plays through into the future is something we look at in a number of the maps 195 00:23:47,010 --> 00:23:53,580 going forward where we chart the evolution of geopolitics from the past into the future. 196 00:23:53,580 --> 00:24:01,170 The ending of the 75 year old liberal world order and the creation of a more multipolar system. 197 00:24:01,170 --> 00:24:06,240 The chapter on violence similarly charts how this is changing in place. 198 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,980 What the danger is of dying from violence, of being affected by it, 199 00:24:10,980 --> 00:24:17,520 showing that it's mainly an issue which affects a small number of countries dramatically. 200 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:22,350 And it's highly, highly concentrated even within those countries by neighbourhoods. 201 00:24:22,350 --> 00:24:34,230 And we show this through map representations. The chapter on demography highlights the factor that many of us have demographic mindsets 202 00:24:34,230 --> 00:24:42,060 which are not able to keep up with the reality of extraordinarily rapid demographic change, 203 00:24:42,060 --> 00:24:55,770 rapid in terms of the transformation of fertility, ageing and where people are well over half the world's population is in this zone. 204 00:24:55,770 --> 00:25:09,180 In China, India, Indonesia. And we show how in this area, and particularly in East Asia, population growth is slowing in dramatic ways. 205 00:25:09,180 --> 00:25:14,580 Fertility much, much slower now than many people imagined. 206 00:25:14,580 --> 00:25:19,860 Indeed, over half the countries in the world are below replacement level. 207 00:25:19,860 --> 00:25:23,730 We show snapshots over time to reflect this. 208 00:25:23,730 --> 00:25:35,550 And what you see here in the growing yellow is the growth of below replacement fertility levels and much of the world in that zone. 209 00:25:35,550 --> 00:25:42,060 Even in Africa, there's an extremely rapid transformation of this. 210 00:25:42,060 --> 00:25:45,330 And we only have about five countries left where we think we will not be 211 00:25:45,330 --> 00:25:53,640 transitioning over the next 20 years to very slow reproduction levels of fertility. 212 00:25:53,640 --> 00:26:00,960 And this, of course, is due to women's education, jobs, information and options. 213 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,830 Having contraception and other tools. And we showed that. 214 00:26:04,830 --> 00:26:08,680 So we need to remove from our mental maps. That is a population pyramid. 215 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:13,600 They still exist in a few places like Nigeria. 216 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:20,370 But the maps of the future, the mental map, should be much more informed by those of the Republic of Korea or the US. 217 00:26:20,370 --> 00:26:29,760 Korea more like a coffin shaped standing up and the US. Similarly so where we have many, many more elderly people. 218 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:35,400 What you also see from all these population projections, as we depict for all countries of the world, 219 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:41,070 is many more elder women than men because women are wiser than men. 220 00:26:41,070 --> 00:26:48,990 They don't make as many stupid decisions in terms of drinking, smoking and violence and live longer around the world. 221 00:26:48,990 --> 00:26:59,200 Also, gender inequality at the bottom. Where people have the ability to choose and sex and societies are very discriminating against women. 222 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:05,100 People are choosing to have men and so you get these very skewed dynamics going forward. 223 00:27:05,100 --> 00:27:12,060 Coming out of the demography chapter, we have a focus on migration, which has been a longtime passion of mine. 224 00:27:12,060 --> 00:27:17,290 And this really is able to show very vividly how. 225 00:27:17,290 --> 00:27:28,840 Demography is confined largely to small number of corridors and these corridors or mainly corridors within regions, not between regions. 226 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:39,010 And that is very, very easily highlighted. Using these maps, we depict where the migrants are coming from and where they are going to. 227 00:27:39,010 --> 00:27:41,920 And what you see here. The blue is arrival's net. 228 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:49,120 Arrival's the red net departures from countries is that within Africa, they are many net arrival places, 229 00:27:49,120 --> 00:27:58,420 mostly coastal and of course, Europe, the US, Australia and the Emirates, very strong net arrival centres. 230 00:27:58,420 --> 00:28:13,030 And how this is changing over time with the growing number of people going not least to the Gulf area, less to Europe, less to the US. 231 00:28:13,030 --> 00:28:19,270 We depict refugee flows. Each of these dots reflects 17 refugees. 232 00:28:19,270 --> 00:28:26,200 And what you see in this is a story where over 90 percent of the refugees go to 233 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:35,290 neighbouring countries and they are the main absorbers of the devastation that wars, 234 00:28:35,290 --> 00:28:45,690 conflict and other sources of refugees create. Using these maps, we are able to show how countries suddenly become major sources of refugees. 235 00:28:45,690 --> 00:28:55,900 You see Syria not much. And then suddenly it explodes in terms of the number of refugees coming from Syria, Iraq previously as well. 236 00:28:55,900 --> 00:29:05,920 And this changes over time. So we have these. Starts and stops the refugee flows, and we are currently in a period as we show of the maximum. 237 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,910 Most refugees in Africa. Two other African countries. 238 00:29:09,910 --> 00:29:15,340 And in the Middle East to other Middle Eastern countries, very small shares of the flows. 239 00:29:15,340 --> 00:29:20,850 As we show to the wealthier countries. Less than five percent. 240 00:29:20,850 --> 00:29:28,560 The chapter on food shows many different aspects of this, but amongst them is the fact that we are not certainly running out of food, 241 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,310 that there are a lot of sources of food, that intensity that, 242 00:29:32,310 --> 00:29:38,700 for example, the Netherlands, one of the biggest exporters of food with variable and land in new ways, 243 00:29:38,700 --> 00:29:45,090 and that over eating is becoming a much bigger problem in many countries than starvation. 244 00:29:45,090 --> 00:29:53,240 This flip from malnutrition to poor nutrition and particularly over eating. 245 00:29:53,240 --> 00:30:01,230 We show in maps the link between climate change and nutrition, and we call for flexitarian diets. 246 00:30:01,230 --> 00:30:07,710 We also show how palm oil is devastating. Indonesia and Malaysia. 247 00:30:07,710 --> 00:30:12,570 The deforestation of that. This is the palm oil which comes from there. 248 00:30:12,570 --> 00:30:21,450 By far, the major source of international oil is these two countries. 249 00:30:21,450 --> 00:30:27,990 And the source of that is the devastation of the forests within those areas. 250 00:30:27,990 --> 00:30:31,710 We look at bovine meat trade in a farm in the similar sort of way, 251 00:30:31,710 --> 00:30:40,620 showing how it is responsible for the destruction of the Amazon and the connexions between what you eat and where it comes from. 252 00:30:40,620 --> 00:30:48,090 This live trade in food and animals, as well as the implications for the places it's coming from, 253 00:30:48,090 --> 00:30:53,480 a better awareness of where what we consume comes from is vital. 254 00:30:53,480 --> 00:31:04,860 The story, which I wasn't aware of, is how aquaculture, the growing of fish is now much more significant than ocean farming or fish or fishing. 255 00:31:04,860 --> 00:31:13,710 And this is the growth in China of that. And what you see here is that basically the capture from oceans has stagnated. 256 00:31:13,710 --> 00:31:24,420 We are overfishing the oceans dramatically. But aquaculture has become a very vibrant source of protein in many, many places. 257 00:31:24,420 --> 00:31:33,420 And that, of course, is going to need to be enhanced. We look at the connexion between climate change and nutrition and are extremely 258 00:31:33,420 --> 00:31:39,600 concerned because our analysis suggests drawing on Oxford Martin school work, 259 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:51,330 that the number of people dying from climate change related nutritional local emergencies is likely to grow very, very quickly. 260 00:31:51,330 --> 00:32:01,470 And we show this in these graphics or where we see the increase that's depicted in red of the number of mean deaths per capita as a result of that. 261 00:32:01,470 --> 00:32:06,570 There are many dimensions of life expectancy that we consider. 262 00:32:06,570 --> 00:32:12,360 The one that's most important for most people is life expectancy at birth. 263 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,250 And what we show is the wonderful story, 264 00:32:14,250 --> 00:32:26,640 the good news about how this is improving everywhere and that it's really only a couple of countries in Africa where it remains under 55 years of age, 265 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:32,820 either through conflicts or in the case of Swaziland, in the city, in southern Africa, HIV AIDS. 266 00:32:32,820 --> 00:32:40,680 But the progress in terms of life expectancy of over 20 years over the last 40 years is something that we're able to chart. 267 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:47,490 And we do project that going forward as well. The attainments in education are also quite astounding. 268 00:32:47,490 --> 00:32:56,430 The improvements in global literacy rate as the world in data shows around the world that are laggards. 269 00:32:56,430 --> 00:33:01,050 Are they great sources of worry and not least in terms of mean years of schooling? 270 00:33:01,050 --> 00:33:06,240 But the convergence which we see continuing is going to continue. 271 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:11,220 We do discuss how covered 19 is likely to set this back, 272 00:33:11,220 --> 00:33:17,190 and the share of the population with no formal education has greatly been reduced 273 00:33:17,190 --> 00:33:23,800 over this period of time as well as we show in the progress of these maps. 274 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:32,420 The. Internet and the spread of the Internet is something that is depicted in yellow 275 00:33:32,420 --> 00:33:37,630 is those that don't yet have Internet and we see how penetration has improved. 276 00:33:37,630 --> 00:33:41,000 And again, is likely to continue to improve. 277 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:49,580 Culture is not often thought about in terms of Macs, but we find what we can to depict cultural soft power. 278 00:33:49,580 --> 00:33:54,970 So the growth of these Confucius Institutes, the British is due to Germany, sued the French Institute. 279 00:33:54,970 --> 00:34:05,540 How they've spread around the world and increasingly Chinese. And the withdrawal of the soft power power of the U.S. and European countries. 280 00:34:05,540 --> 00:34:10,040 We also depict the decline of languages and other dimensions of culture, 281 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:15,590 as well as in a fun graphic depicting the spread of McDonald's, for example, around the world. 282 00:34:15,590 --> 00:34:20,990 And what does the concluding chapter seeks to bring together? 283 00:34:20,990 --> 00:34:31,350 A lot of these different trends and. Provides policy recommendations, which we draw out of each chapter on how people have addressed these challenges, 284 00:34:31,350 --> 00:34:35,400 why the good stories have been there, 285 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:42,030 and why bad, bad circumstances persist, whether it's in literacy or Internet connectivity, 286 00:34:42,030 --> 00:34:48,110 whether it's an inequality, climate change or in other areas. 287 00:34:48,110 --> 00:34:53,700 There's certainly an extraordinary amount to be worried about, not least in this time. 288 00:34:53,700 --> 00:35:02,160 And as we were writing this, we were due to finish in January, but we ended up finishing in June to take accounts of COGAT 19. 289 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:08,970 The fires in Australia were happening and we were seeing the spread of the impact of climate change. 290 00:35:08,970 --> 00:35:18,320 The fires in Australia, in California and elsewhere, and, of course, covered 19. 291 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,830 Take making an impact around the world. 292 00:35:21,830 --> 00:35:30,650 But we were also very taken in the book by the good news, by the fact that they've been in so many areas, tremendous improvements. 293 00:35:30,650 --> 00:35:39,380 One of them, for example, is on mortality. Here's another way of looking at mortality, which is how many people under five die. 294 00:35:39,380 --> 00:35:45,140 And what you see here is just comparing 1990 with 2020. 295 00:35:45,140 --> 00:35:57,440 You see that whereas in 1990, large parts of the world suffered from well over 40 deaths per thousand life births. 296 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:04,310 Now, this is unusual and confined to a small number of African countries. 297 00:36:04,310 --> 00:36:10,010 That sort of change and is depicted in so many ways in the book is what inspires us, 298 00:36:10,010 --> 00:36:16,610 the ability of countries to change their destiny and the ability of the world community to make a massive difference to that. 299 00:36:16,610 --> 00:36:23,390 And we chart how this coalition of willing actors, of countries, of communities, in many cases cities, 300 00:36:23,390 --> 00:36:29,330 companies working together, learning from each other, can make that difference. 301 00:36:29,330 --> 00:36:35,960 The story of renewable power in the US, although many in a month are not aware of this, is also an inspiring story. 302 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:44,300 It shows how the combination of incentives at the different state level is able to now in many states, 303 00:36:44,300 --> 00:36:52,640 lead to renewable power being by far the stronger source of power, the greatest source of power than fossil fuels. 304 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:58,880 And this has happened over a very, very quick period of time as we compare nineteen eighty five with twenty nineteen. 305 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,080 In these images, 306 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:10,640 we show the growth of wind power photovoltaic and how this is likely in many states in the very near future to overtake other sources. 307 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:15,550 Indeed, even in Texas, we think that is the case. 308 00:37:15,550 --> 00:37:25,570 In somewhat we have in the book is a series of analysis of the key dimensions which we think will shape the future key dimensions, 309 00:37:25,570 --> 00:37:33,410 which we believe will allow us. To, by reflecting on them, shape our future for the better. 310 00:37:33,410 --> 00:37:36,140 None of these are set in stone. 311 00:37:36,140 --> 00:37:46,100 Whether it's inequality or climate change or the pandemic or other dimensions, we believe that when we have this analytic capability, 312 00:37:46,100 --> 00:37:53,720 when we develop the community solidarity and the ability to work together, we will be able to do that. 313 00:37:53,720 --> 00:38:01,940 And we hope that the book, by providing insights into this, gives people perspective, but also inspiration. 314 00:38:01,940 --> 00:38:09,860 We've been delighted with the early response it's received that Martin Rees said this was 315 00:38:09,860 --> 00:38:17,030 the book he would take to a desert island and that so many others have found it useful. 316 00:38:17,030 --> 00:38:24,440 And we hope that if you do take the opportunity to look at it, to get it, that you will find the same. 317 00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:33,620 It's a beautifully presented book. It's a book which unfortunately is rather heavy and. 318 00:38:33,620 --> 00:38:39,570 That's. Requires some looking at. 319 00:38:39,570 --> 00:38:45,210 And there it is. A rather fat book. 320 00:38:45,210 --> 00:38:59,190 So that's my introduction to it. And now let me turn to the questions that have appeared, and I'll take the one first that has the most votes. 321 00:38:59,190 --> 00:39:08,360 And it is. Do you think that humanity can continue to support globalisation and growth and be sustainable at the same time? 322 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:15,900 This is a key question and goes to the heart of what we've been trying to analyse in the book. 323 00:39:15,900 --> 00:39:26,490 And what it shows is that these huge inequalities and it's not about how many people in a place you have many places with extraordinary 324 00:39:26,490 --> 00:39:36,450 density or population which are living relatively harmoniously with the planet and other places of which are living far beyond their means. 325 00:39:36,450 --> 00:39:45,330 I mentioned New York State as an example, consuming more energy and antibiotics than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. 326 00:39:45,330 --> 00:39:51,660 I do not believe that we can stop economic growth for those that do not yet habits. 327 00:39:51,660 --> 00:40:00,630 I believe that would be to condemn Africans, Latin Americans and Asians that are living in dire poverty to permanent poverty, 328 00:40:00,630 --> 00:40:07,230 because even if everyone got the same income, they wouldn't be able to live a decent life. 329 00:40:07,230 --> 00:40:12,600 It's also the case, particularly after the pandemic in the rich countries, 330 00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:21,450 that we're going to have to develop a very different type of economic model to be able to cope with the growing inequalities, 331 00:40:21,450 --> 00:40:26,370 the enormous imbalances which have been since stone set in place. 332 00:40:26,370 --> 00:40:36,850 But what the pandemic has demonstrated to us is two things which I never thought in January would be possible in 2020. 333 00:40:36,850 --> 00:40:42,490 The one is. That we can change our behaviour very quickly. 334 00:40:42,490 --> 00:40:52,010 People have given up their social lives, they've given up. The ability to travel, to fly. 335 00:40:52,010 --> 00:40:57,320 To do other things in a very, very short period of time, because they believe it's in the common good. 336 00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:04,100 And particularly young people have given this up, which has been astounding, the sacrifices of the young for the old. 337 00:41:04,100 --> 00:41:13,100 We can't change our behaviour and we have to change it urgently to meet this challenge of sustainability, climate, water, food and other areas. 338 00:41:13,100 --> 00:41:16,190 And certainly eating less meat is a vital part of that. 339 00:41:16,190 --> 00:41:25,370 But there are many other dimensions to that, including wearing a jumper inside rather than turning the heating on, changing to renewable energy. 340 00:41:25,370 --> 00:41:34,100 The second thing that the pandemic has demonstrated to us very forcefully is that governments can act and find the money when they want to. 341 00:41:34,100 --> 00:41:42,650 The old taboos of orthodoxy. Were totally broken with this pandemic. 342 00:41:42,650 --> 00:41:48,310 What would have been regarded as impossible for governments to do in January is now commonplace. 343 00:41:48,310 --> 00:41:53,810 The rich countries have set aside over 10 percent of their GDP is in the UK alone. 344 00:41:53,810 --> 00:41:59,650 We've taken on 350 billion. Pounds of new debt. 345 00:41:59,650 --> 00:42:04,750 This would have been unimaginable in peacetime. It has never happened before. 346 00:42:04,750 --> 00:42:10,700 And so governments can act. They can support firms. They can support workers. 347 00:42:10,700 --> 00:42:17,330 They can find the resources and some countries, particularly Europe and South Korea, 348 00:42:17,330 --> 00:42:25,670 have shown that this can be done as part of a green new deal to create full employment and to create a more urgent carbon transition. 349 00:42:25,670 --> 00:42:32,000 So I'm confident that we can grow in a way that is sustainable. 350 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:36,870 But it does require those two things, that chain. It requires a change. 351 00:42:36,870 --> 00:42:44,680 In our behaviour, and it requires a change in government regulation and incentives to stop subsidising dirty fuels, 352 00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:51,850 to stop the bads of globalisation not only in climate but in other dimensions. 353 00:42:51,850 --> 00:42:57,460 And to ensure a decent life for everyone. To me, the story is not about growth. 354 00:42:57,460 --> 00:43:02,030 We have to grow particularly poor people have to grow out of poverty. 355 00:43:02,030 --> 00:43:12,500 But it's about redistribution and the levers of power and about our own behaviour as individuals at all levels, 356 00:43:12,500 --> 00:43:17,720 individuals, communities, cities, nations and the global community. 357 00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:22,350 The second is a question. Sorry, I should have gone down the list. 358 00:43:22,350 --> 00:43:32,460 There's a question with eight votes. In writing the book, what finding surprised you positively or negatively the most? 359 00:43:32,460 --> 00:43:41,150 That's a very interesting and difficult question. There are many things in the book which surprised me negatively. 360 00:43:41,150 --> 00:43:53,450 I haven't seen the extent without being up close to of the melting of the third pole of the glaciers and ice caps. 361 00:43:53,450 --> 00:43:57,980 And the extent to which this has happened shocked me deeply. 362 00:43:57,980 --> 00:44:06,990 I haven't seen the extent to which we are dependent on, for example, palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia. 363 00:44:06,990 --> 00:44:12,800 Some of the demographic changes, I hadn't appreciated the extent of them either. 364 00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:18,260 And I think I had and appreciate the extent to which the US is engaged in an energy transition. 365 00:44:18,260 --> 00:44:24,500 Until I looked at the details with Rob Mugga, my co-author of that. 366 00:44:24,500 --> 00:44:29,570 So there are many good, good and bad dimensions which have been surprising. 367 00:44:29,570 --> 00:44:37,730 I think I also did find throughout the book that trying to make sense of these maps gave me a perspective, 368 00:44:37,730 --> 00:44:43,940 historical perspective and a perspective, thinking about the way this will evolve, which was different. 369 00:44:43,940 --> 00:44:48,850 It's the breadth and depth of this. And working with Rob, who's an expert in areas that I'm not. 370 00:44:48,850 --> 00:44:55,700 He's an expert on urbanisation, on violence and on geopolitics, for example, which I certainly am not. 371 00:44:55,700 --> 00:45:05,660 Took me a huge amount about those dimensions. For example, that image of more people dying, many more people dying of pollution than murder and crime. 372 00:45:05,660 --> 00:45:11,380 I had no idea of exactly the scale of that and its ubiquity. 373 00:45:11,380 --> 00:45:15,380 That had nine votes. So I'm just going through to cheque where. 374 00:45:15,380 --> 00:45:25,010 What would be next? I think this one with four votes. The book highlights. 375 00:45:25,010 --> 00:45:32,460 Sorry. That's gone down now. The book highlights so well the interconnected nature of the world's problems. 376 00:45:32,460 --> 00:45:37,740 Thank you. What needs to change for more countries to realise that more global coordination and 377 00:45:37,740 --> 00:45:43,140 improved international governance is necessary to help us manage these problems? 378 00:45:43,140 --> 00:45:46,650 I think what needs to change is a number of things. 379 00:45:46,650 --> 00:45:56,130 Firstly, pandemics are extremely unusual and we highlight this in that they the only problem we face that really can come from anywhere in the world. 380 00:45:56,130 --> 00:46:01,620 The smallest country, the poorest country or the richest country and the richest place. 381 00:46:01,620 --> 00:46:09,180 And that requires really does require global coordination, although the things that will stop it, like vaccines, can come from one place. 382 00:46:09,180 --> 00:46:15,630 And of course, the rules like those being embodied in the WTO can come from one place. 383 00:46:15,630 --> 00:46:21,780 But it's an unusual example. Most of the challenges we face, and this is highlighted in the book on climate, for example, 384 00:46:21,780 --> 00:46:28,990 where we identified 100 countries that account for something like 70 percent of fossil fuel emissions. 385 00:46:28,990 --> 00:46:38,440 The dozen countries that account for that and within the countries, the cities, a small group of actors generally can solve most of most problems. 386 00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:46,420 The paratus principle, you can generally solve 80 percent of the problems with 20 percent or less of the actors. 387 00:46:46,420 --> 00:46:55,900 And we found this very much building on the work of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations, which Pascal Amin led to be the case in many. 388 00:46:55,900 --> 00:47:00,700 And what we are able to do is outline who those actors would be. 389 00:47:00,700 --> 00:47:04,870 In many cases it's countries, but in some cases it's companies. 390 00:47:04,870 --> 00:47:13,540 It's cities that can do a huge amount. And we show that it's actors stopping things like stopping the Amazon. 391 00:47:13,540 --> 00:47:22,870 Deforestation is going to require the big companies, which account for a large part of the trade acting as well as people changing their diets. 392 00:47:22,870 --> 00:47:28,960 And, of course, rules and regulations, satellite imagery and other dimensions of this. 393 00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:34,030 So I think we have been able to through this process. 394 00:47:34,030 --> 00:47:41,330 Help highlight some of the governance challenges around this and how one acts on it. 395 00:47:41,330 --> 00:47:51,120 Clearly, this is a massive issue and not least in the context of what we discuss in the geopolitics chapter, which is. 396 00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:58,990 Polemic, polemic, politics. Politics, which does not embrace these global challenges. 397 00:47:58,990 --> 00:48:04,930 And therefore, what happens in countries like the US are really matters. 398 00:48:04,930 --> 00:48:08,500 We highlight how much progress China's made on many dimensions. 399 00:48:08,500 --> 00:48:18,940 But there's no problem we can think of that won't involve effectively as we show China, the US and Europe working together. 400 00:48:18,940 --> 00:48:21,910 And unless those three actors are able to work together, 401 00:48:21,910 --> 00:48:28,890 it's very difficult to imagine that any of the great, great challenges that we face are addressed. 402 00:48:28,890 --> 00:48:33,840 Three votes. How are dynamic changes over time displayed in the book? 403 00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:38,940 Are they changing maps over time available online? 404 00:48:38,940 --> 00:48:53,350 Good question from Andrew Briggs. The book is a static book in the sense we have snapshots of these dynamic images that I've shown. 405 00:48:53,350 --> 00:49:00,390 But the Earth time resource, which is behind the dynamic images. 406 00:49:00,390 --> 00:49:04,620 They have a Web site. And you can go to the Earth Time Web site to do that. 407 00:49:04,620 --> 00:49:09,990 We also are developing, Rob and I, a Web site which we hope will be more integrated with the book. 408 00:49:09,990 --> 00:49:15,060 But at the moment, it's basically the Earth Time Web site, which has much more. 409 00:49:15,060 --> 00:49:19,980 And some of these images are also and we cite the sources for them or public about a lot. 410 00:49:19,980 --> 00:49:33,250 For example, the NASA images are available on the NASA Web site, our welding data on our welding data Web site and other publicly available Web sites. 411 00:49:33,250 --> 00:49:40,960 Two votes. Have you been able to map digital pollution over other forms of pollution? 412 00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,250 We seem to lock down to slow down pollution on the right and by confirmation to cheque on the girls. 413 00:49:45,250 --> 00:49:54,000 New York State consumes. Yes, that's the points are right on antibiotics and electricity. 414 00:49:54,000 --> 00:50:00,400 And you'll see the numbers in the book. And digital pollution. 415 00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:05,390 By which I presume you mean fake news. The spread of bad ideas. 416 00:50:05,390 --> 00:50:12,880 Cybercrime as well. And others. Sarah. It's good to see that you that you're online. 417 00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:20,530 Yes. The awesome images which show bad the spread of bad ideas and bad things. 418 00:50:20,530 --> 00:50:31,150 And we discussed this in the text. It's the underbelly of the digital, just as financial transactions which are illegal, illicit credit, 419 00:50:31,150 --> 00:50:37,780 financial disaster in the worst case of financial flows and other vulnerabilities of globalisation. 420 00:50:37,780 --> 00:50:46,900 So those are discussed in a variety of places, including in the chapter on politics and on culture. 421 00:50:46,900 --> 00:50:52,450 So can individual people really have an impact? 422 00:50:52,450 --> 00:50:57,190 Or do you think it's only major policy changes that can change things? 423 00:50:57,190 --> 00:51:05,020 I would argue that it's individuals in the end, the summation of individual decisions that make policy changes. 424 00:51:05,020 --> 00:51:15,460 And even in countries where there appears to be no connexion between the politicians and the people, like highly authoritarian countries, in the end, 425 00:51:15,460 --> 00:51:23,560 as I've seen from my own country, South Africa, in the end, individual will does move societies, 426 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:30,190 although it can be extremely torturous and painful and take a very, very long time. 427 00:51:30,190 --> 00:51:32,530 So individual people make an enormous difference. 428 00:51:32,530 --> 00:51:39,400 And I think increasingly so because of our connectivity and because we recognise we no longer atomised in the way that we 429 00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:47,480 were in the world before the World Wide Web and Internet movements that starts spontaneously be at the Metoo movement, 430 00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:53,950 be a greater Thornberg. And her actions on a whole variety of fronts beat the extinction. 431 00:51:53,950 --> 00:52:04,090 Rebellion bids good ideas and bad ideas that spread virally on the Internet through social media and elsewhere. 432 00:52:04,090 --> 00:52:10,510 And so I do believe that in effect, there's a battle of ideas and that unless individuals engage, 433 00:52:10,510 --> 00:52:17,230 they give over that battle to those that could have very bad ideas. 434 00:52:17,230 --> 00:52:25,390 And so being on the sidelines and individuals not taking a position, whether it's in how they live their lives, 435 00:52:25,390 --> 00:52:33,730 what they do, what they consume or in the realm of ideas and digitally. 436 00:52:33,730 --> 00:52:43,780 In my view, is to to effectively give over to the other side to forces which don't believe, 437 00:52:43,780 --> 00:52:48,970 for example, in climate change, will spread fake news about it to vaccinations or others. 438 00:52:48,970 --> 00:52:54,370 So copying opting out is not really an option if you want to change the world. 439 00:52:54,370 --> 00:53:02,970 We can try and live on an island in a cocoon, but the world will come to us in the end as it will tear down our forests. 440 00:53:02,970 --> 00:53:07,660 It will lead to burning fires. It will give us a pandemic or whatever. 441 00:53:07,660 --> 00:53:16,780 There's no wall high enough even for the mightiest countries to be islands to try and stop climate change or pandemics by cocooning themselves. 442 00:53:16,780 --> 00:53:22,570 And there's no wall high enough that will insulate the richest people in the world from what's happening in the world. 443 00:53:22,570 --> 00:53:33,470 And so I I believe that what this hyper connectivity has done and covered 19 has shown more than anything else is a demonstration. 444 00:53:33,470 --> 00:53:39,320 Of individuals being connected, that we are only as strong as our weakest parts. 445 00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:44,300 And unless we act together to manage this, we are all very vulnerable. 446 00:53:44,300 --> 00:53:56,280 And I think that's been graphically demonstrated through this. I think that's all the questions that have to votes or more. 447 00:53:56,280 --> 00:54:01,910 I've dealt with the question on do we have. There's not a companion C.D. 448 00:54:01,910 --> 00:54:10,340 So that's to go back to that. Lynn Martin would approach. 449 00:54:10,340 --> 00:54:18,200 Thanks for for watching Lee, and he's been involved in the Oxford Martin School since the very, very beginning of it. 450 00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:24,180 In fact, long before I arrived in the works of Martin School. She was thinking with her husband, Jim, about creating it. 451 00:54:24,180 --> 00:54:28,550 So thank you, Lillian, for being engaged and for everything you've done. 452 00:54:28,550 --> 00:54:32,690 We're approaching the different parts of the book in order then arranged to be advised. 453 00:54:32,690 --> 00:54:36,710 Does it rely on previous parts? No. It's an unusual book in that respect. 454 00:54:36,710 --> 00:54:41,990 It's the only one I've written that that really doesn't matter where you start in it. 455 00:54:41,990 --> 00:54:47,870 If you interest in one particular topic, climate change, inequality, technology. 456 00:54:47,870 --> 00:54:51,890 Dive in there. I hope that you'll find the others of interest. 457 00:54:51,890 --> 00:54:58,060 But over time, as you can also use it as a reference book and go to the areas that you that you want. 458 00:54:58,060 --> 00:55:03,830 And of course, the index and table of contents on maps will help guide that. 459 00:55:03,830 --> 00:55:12,710 But it is unusual in that I hope you read the introduction and conclusion because those those do provide the context. 460 00:55:12,710 --> 00:55:21,510 We have time for a couple more questions, if I'm quick. Have you mapped, covered and toxic air pollution? 461 00:55:21,510 --> 00:55:26,920 Yes, we have. The book was completed at the end of June. 462 00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:31,890 Penguin, who are the publishers to the most amazing job of printing it very quickly. 463 00:55:31,890 --> 00:55:37,200 They were going to printing in China, but then they end up printing it in Italy. 464 00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:41,970 And and so we spread we makeover to the end of June. 465 00:55:41,970 --> 00:55:50,490 And that's our Cut-Off date. But in the way we approach it and pointing to what sources we use, we hope that that's helpful. 466 00:55:50,490 --> 00:55:55,530 It's a as a demonstration of the butterfly effect of globalisation, 467 00:55:55,530 --> 00:56:01,290 as a demonstration of what we were already talking about in the book, which is the spread of other pandemics. 468 00:56:01,290 --> 00:56:06,600 Spanish flu sores, Ebola. So Murres and others. 469 00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:13,770 And so we link it to that. And, of course, use it as an illustration not only of how you can use maps, 470 00:56:13,770 --> 00:56:20,670 but also how you how globalisation can be managed and the very different ways in which different places have done it. 471 00:56:20,670 --> 00:56:27,780 But it does have to be managed globally. So, yes, urbanisation and migration. 472 00:56:27,780 --> 00:56:33,080 Good for India. Yes. You see. 473 00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:41,320 Mike, you know, as I've argued in exceptional people and elsewhere, migration is the greatest source of progress for humanity has always been, 474 00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:46,510 and it's by going to places which have higher productivity, by people coming together, 475 00:56:46,510 --> 00:56:51,340 that they innovate, that they create new ideas and that they conquer adversity. 476 00:56:51,340 --> 00:56:58,810 So we are all migrants, depending on how far back we look and an increasingly urban. 477 00:56:58,810 --> 00:57:05,110 And certainly that is going to be the story for India as well. 478 00:57:05,110 --> 00:57:10,000 Do you have a map showing over time, possibly the last 50 years, the change in poverty? 479 00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:17,680 Yes, we have a lot of graphics on poverty. We use our world in data sources and some of the others. 480 00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:24,310 And these are, in today's terms, in the currency of today. 481 00:57:24,310 --> 00:57:28,540 And thanks in for so coming online for this. 482 00:57:28,540 --> 00:57:37,450 It's good to see you are parts of us. I think I've got time for one more question. 483 00:57:37,450 --> 00:57:42,250 Let me take the most work. Okay. Where can we push the book other than Amazon dot com? 484 00:57:42,250 --> 00:57:50,230 Very good question. You can purchase it from a whole variety of different sources just if you if you look at it. 485 00:57:50,230 --> 00:58:00,070 You'll have to look at it. Google, which is, I suppose, the Amazon or hub of the Internet search engines, but it's available at Waterstones. 486 00:58:00,070 --> 00:58:05,110 It's available if you're in Oxford don't books. It's available at Blackwells. 487 00:58:05,110 --> 00:58:10,390 It's available from all good booksellers and all good websites. 488 00:58:10,390 --> 00:58:15,410 And you certainly don't need to buy it from Amazon. 489 00:58:15,410 --> 00:58:19,270 I see this. Someone's really put up some other links to places for it. 490 00:58:19,270 --> 00:58:25,870 So thanks to you. Well, I'm sorry I didn't get time to go to all your questions, but I hope that if you get it, you enjoy it. 491 00:58:25,870 --> 00:58:31,210 And I hope that in any event, you learnt from this presentation. 492 00:58:31,210 --> 00:58:38,230 Thanks to all of you. And thanks for Oxman School for hosting me. Thank you very much. 493 00:58:38,230 --> 00:58:43,190 That was fascinating. And and thank you for racing through as many of the questions as you could. 494 00:58:43,190 --> 00:58:52,840 And just before we close, I would like to just ask everyone is still online and do keep checking the events that we have coming up. 495 00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:58,040 And also, Martin, so we have a busy programme coming up to this audience in particular. 496 00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:03,400 And you may be interested in our event on the twenty seventh of October. 497 00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:12,340 Again, at five p.m. when we have Jeff Sachs talking about the ages of globalisation and that will actually be hosted by Ian. 498 00:59:12,340 --> 00:59:23,572 So I hope we'll see you back then. And in the meantime, thank you, Ian, and thank you, everyone for coming online and tuning in.