Hey, welcome to the USD talk.
And I'm just going to introduce now in Professor Ian Golden.
Ian is the professor of globalisation and development at Oxford.
He at the Martin School. He is the director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technological Economic Change.
He also the founding director of the school and led it through its first decade.
So it's a great pleasure to to welcome Ian today.
He's going to be talking about his beautifully presented new book, Terra Incognita,
which has garnered accolades from sources as diverse as comedian Stephen Fry and Lord Martin Rees, the Astronomer Royal.
And it will speak for about 35 minutes, I think. And then there is plenty of time for him to answer your questions.
Now, if you look on the bottom right, the screen is a button.
You can click ask a question. So please, at any point, just add your questions to that list and note that you can also vote on questions.
So that's your way of pushing questions you like to the top of the pile.
So please use both of those functions. And I now give you here to talk about his book.
Thank you very much, Julian, and welcome to everyone. It's a great pleasure to introduce Terra Incognita.
It's a book which spans over a vast array of areas and really would not have been possible
if I had not been at the Oxford Martin School able to benefit from the extraordinary range,
breadth and depth of work that is done.
And as you'll see, many of the topics covered in the book are those which are the focus of individual work programmes in the school.
And it's been a enormous pleasure as part of this process to be able to consult with colleagues,
but also to draw on incredible data and not least the data of our world in data.
And Max Roser and his team, who've done such an amazing job of creating a database which is publicly available.
The book was co-authored with Rob Mugga, who lived in Rio based in Rio.
So this was a book which long before we were forced to, was largely done through our virtual connexion.
And many of the maps presented in the book are done by the Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and the CREATE Lab there,
which is at the forefront of analysis of data, satellite imagery making.
And so this has been in many respects, a three way collaboration,
although so many others have been involved because it spans an enormous variety of different areas.
As you'll see from this table of contents, the maps cover a vast range of different areas globalisation,
climate change and urbanisation, technology, inequality.
Geopolitics. Violence, demography. Migration, food, health.
Education, culture. But only in this 30 minutes, going to touch on a couple of the areas I clearly can't give full.
Well, just but we've identified 100 maps in the book, which we think will help people think about the future.
It's a grand claim, 100 maps to survive the next hundred years.
But what we hope is that the book provides perspectives that if we act.
On both survive and thrive in the next hundred years, we live in a extraordinarily perplexing time.
More happening more quickly than at any time in history. And of course, Covered 19 has highlighted that.
But we also have the ability, not least through our new data analytics and ability to see ourselves at the microscopic level,
whether it's a virus or at the macroscopic level, whether it's the earth from space and the universe in ways that were unimaginable only 10 years ago.
And it's that richness which we've sought to draw on in helping gain perspective, which we hope allows readers to make better decisions.
And through those better decisions that we will survive because we are at a crossroads for humanity.
The decisions we take will influence the world for many generations to come.
Why terra incognita? Well, we chose the title because it's unknown world.
We've always lived in an unknown world. And as the maps drawn on the earliest caves 20000 thousand years ago illustrate,
we've used maps to try and think about the way that the world operates around us,
to place ourselves in the context and to place other people in other places.
But not only people and places. Animals, of course, were amongst the first Reppert represented in these maps as well as Flora.
On the early early maps of twenty thousand years ago, maps have evolved and when?
Need be aware of the fact that they are a snapshot of what we know today.
And so looking back at maps, one sees these extraordinary images like these of maps.
We did not accurately reflect the world. But Tom Analise, famous geography here from 81 50.
A flat world. Limited world. A world with dragons and angels at the edges.
And as I argued in my book, Age of Discovery, it was that revolution to be able to see the world as a whole,
to be able to circumnavigate, be able to have compass direction, which led to the transformation along which brought us the Renaissance.
It's a fundamentally significant thing for us of how we imagine a world where we see ourselves in proportion to others,
to other places and to other parts of our incredible universe.
We've all been absorbed in maps in dramatic ways in recent months and yet since February.
And I think there's been no time in history where more people have been looking at maps.
The maps of the spread of the novel coronavirus covered 19 from.
The source in Wertheim, and as we've seen these expanding circles here represented in the John Hopkins map,
we understand not only how the virus has spread following the arteries of globalisation,
but, of course, how different countries have done so differently.
Even within the US, how different states have done so differently within Europe,
how different countries have done so differently, and the same is true in Africa.
And what this allows us to use maps to do is not only to chart the progress,
but also understand the differences and try and make sense of the very, very different dimensions of this change.
And as the corona virus has absorbed us in MAP.
So to have the ideas around what can be done about it, whether globalisation is going to be stopped by it,
and how we can have a connected world without being vulnerable.
And that has been the subject of much of my previous work.
The first chapter of the book is about globalisation, and I seek in this to display the sinews of globalisation,
to show how the arteries of globalisation have created the most rapid progress for more people,
more quickly than any force in the history of humanity.
And it's that connectivity which. Is absolutely vital for us today.
The connectivity that comes from globalisation, whether it's the Internet and you will connecting to my talk today or whether it's the ability of.
Different societies to engage in commerce, financial transactions, and, of course,
to share good ideas like the Metoo Movement and Black Lives Matter and bad ideas like those involved in very dangerous take news anti
vaccination movements and spread all the Autry's of globalisation as we show both the super spreaders of goods as well as pad's.
These slides that I'm showing will come to an end and then you'll see my face,
because I gather that some of you are concerned that you can't see me, I'm afraid that's the limit of the system.
Yeah, you should have a little snapshot of me at the bottom of your screens.
But when we get to Q&A, you will see that it indeed is me speaking.
And what I look like. So globalisation has been an immensely powerful force for good.
But it's also poses the grave threats we face.
And so what we try and analyse in this book is how we can manage the sinews of the system, whether it's the fibre optics, the transport.
The financial or the other links to ensure that we are able to harvest the opportunities and mitigate the threats.
As I discuss in my book, The Butterfly Defect, globalisation endemically creates systemic risks.
And by mapping its connectivity, we begin to get a sense of not only how it's connected,
but also, of course, where the critical nodes and networks are.
And it's these critical nodes and networks that are the weak links in the system.
There are many ways of reflecting globalisation and the unevenness of it.
The dramatic inequalities in it. This is an representation of phones,
computers and other connected devices and submarine cables that connect continents with fibre optics and information.
It shows the extraordinary density, the luminosity in white of the highly populated and wealthier places.
It also shows the vast spaces of darkness. Some of these, of course, due to desert's mountain ranges.
The north and south, but what comes out of this very strongly is that some densely populated places,
not least in Africa and Central Asia, are not connected.
There are other ways of representing globalisation.
This is trade flows, and what we see here is each dot in this representing ten million dollars of the flow of manufactured rice.
And what we show by doing snapshots over time is how this is dramatically changing,
particularly how China has come into the equation and how much more rapid trade within Europe has been since the establishment of the European Union.
How extraordinary, robust, new, effective. We have these three poles of globalisation in East Asia, in Europe and in the Americas.
And it's these representations which give us a much better sense of what happens if you engage, for example,
in a Cold War and try and disconnect these different parts of the system because they are so integrated.
Of course, the underbelly of much of globalisation is is.
Part of the band's. Climate change and things like plastic.
And what this representation of plastic waste shows is how, although it is concentrated in rapidly growing places, it doesn't need to be so.
We see the extraordinary clean up of the beaches of the Mediterranean, which used to look like the beaches of the catchment areas in China,
in Vietnam and in other places, these big blue circles represented in Asia.
And you also see the relatively low levels of plastic waste in parts of the US represented by these blue bubbles,
the size of the bubbles representing the amount of waste.
So one of the things we can also do with these maps is that we can do something about it.
The chapter in the book on climate change benefits from extraordinary images which exist in many,
many, many dimensions, but they are startling and very worrying in many ways.
The time lapses we have of the Amazon show how it is being eroded.
This is Amazon being overtaken by farmland. The deforestation of the Amazon over the years.
And you see this vivid portrayal from these maps of and out of the forest.
Turning to farmland, the slash and burn the fires. And there are many ways in which we show this.
What are the most neglected impacts of climate change is on the third pole.
The ice caps of the world, the Himalayans ice cap, the other polls, of course, the Arctic and Antarctic.
And what you see from these satellite images, and we have a variety of them in the book, is The Melting of the glaciers.
Here we comparing 1984 and 9th and 2019.
Both Rob and I have hiked in the glaciers in the Himalayas.
And I've been to the north and south, the Arctic and Antarctic, and taken photographs,
which we used to display this extraordinary collapse of this massive,
massive ability, the fires we used to depict, not least the fires in the Arctic, the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and elsewhere.
You'll be familiar with the fact that we're in the hottest period in a billion years.
But what we have in the book is images which are startling in terms of the ability to display using satellite imagery,
the changes in temperature over time, and that basically the redder it gets, the hotter it guests.
And there's an extra whole process of global warming coming from climate change.
We also display that the changes over time of greenhouse gas emissions,
you see in this early image of 1970 that the US was by far the biggest emitter, much bigger than China, for example.
And by the time we get further, as China grows, its share gets bigger the size of the circle representing the size of the emissions.
And now China, much bigger than the US, enabling us to see the relative proportions of different places.
What I found startling and wasn't aware of before I did this book was the impact of pollution on people's life expectancy.
The yellow circles reflect how many people die of air pollution and the red circles from homicides, from murders.
And what you see here is that for most parts of the world, pollution is a far bigger killer than.
Homicide and this is not least the case in Africa, where indoor air pollution,
people cooking and heating in their homes leads to these high levels of death.
This really puts things in proportion.
If we gave the attention to climate and to indoor air pollution that we give to homicides, I think we would act more strongly against them.
This is fires and another dimension of climate change that we portray.
And you see the fires spreading and the seasonality of it over time.
We've mapped in the book using satellite imagery and projections the impact of climate change on different coastal areas.
And here you see the impact on Florida of climate change, a massive disappearance effectively of much of Florida.
You see Miami completely underwater with four degrees.
But even with two degrees, much of Florida would disappear.
This is not true only of Florida. It's true of other parts of the world as we show this is the Netherlands underwater as a result of climate change.
Of course, they will work hard and they're very good at it to stop this.
But we believe that from me, rivers and other flows, this will become increasingly difficult.
And we do that for many places. This relates, of course, to the future of cities.
And we use many, many different images in the book to discuss these.
But one of the things that's highlighted from this image, which is the growth of Las Vegas,
is that if you have enough money, you can effectively live in the desert.
You can survive at four degrees, a temperature increase and you pipe water from further and deeper living.
Of course, on energy intensive air conditioned Kirkwood's. That the growth of Las Vegas is sprawl and other dense urban areas.
We chart like, for example, Dubai in the desert.
We show the changes in Dubai's landscape are testament to the fact of how inequality will change as a result of climate change.
The chapter on technology looks at the origins of technological change, where it's going and how it's likely to impact on us.
And this is one image that draws on work from my group in the Oxford Martin School, which shows patents and their distribution not clearly.
Patents are not being developed over the Atlantic Ocean, as you see from the dots here between Europe and the Americas.
But it reflects collaboration between these different areas.
And it's that collaboration which is the heart of innovation, collaboration within cities, between teams and between countries.
And again, will be a terrible consequence of a Cold War.
Deep learning and its evolution is something we discuss and you see here an
analysis of where it's happening and the changing role of different places,
not least in Asia. Huge dominance from the coasts of the US, the north west and the East Coast, but also a growth in Europe.
Very little, of course, in Africa or Latin America by comparison.
And that raises many questions of inclusion in that.
Where is it going? Well, including in many places is, of course, electrification and the transformation of energy systems to wind and solar.
And we chart the progress in that which is extremely encouraging.
And you see over different times how now China is the largest producer of both solar and wind power.
What we do in the book is look at the growth of renewable energy, but also where it's likely to go,
an underside of technological change is the automation of jobs, the taking of jobs by robots, by automated systems.
And that also draws on work in the Oxford Martin School that we've undertaken the future of work group that I'm responsible for,
which is looking at this with Carl Frame, Michael Osborne and others.
And we chart how automation is likely to impact on different parts of the world.
And you see the percentage of people at risk highlighting the point that this is not only a rich country issue on the country,
there are many developing countries which are more at risk than rich countries where over 50 percent of the workforce are at risk.
We spend. A lot of time in the book looking at the distributional consequences of these different dimensions of globalisation and change,
not least with respect to income inequality. And there are many ways of looking at this.
But one is to look at the lights at night to get a handle on what's happening.
What we do is compare, for example, Lagos. And you see it here in circles with New York, same sorts of populations.
But New York, totally different in terms of its energy availability.
In fact, New York State, as we show, has more energy use than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.
It also consumes more antibiotics than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.
We draw on the latest research to look at the implications of soaring inequality on incomes, showing how the top zero point zero zero one percent,
that's one in 100000 people have seen soaring incomes,
while those in the lower distribution have seen their incomes decline in real terms, both before taxes and post-tax and redistribution.
And there's a number of charts in the book that display this, including by country, the stagnation of wages.
This is the stagnation. The blue line in real wages in the U.S. is something that we consider.
This has significant political consequences. We believe it's behind the rise in populism.
We believe that we wouldn't have a Brexit in the UK or President Trump in the White House had
it not been for the financial crisis and the rapid increase in inequality and unemployment,
stagnating wages that accompany it. But how this plays through into the future is something we look at in a number of the maps
going forward where we chart the evolution of geopolitics from the past into the future.
The ending of the 75 year old liberal world order and the creation of a more multipolar system.
The chapter on violence similarly charts how this is changing in place.
What the danger is of dying from violence, of being affected by it,
showing that it's mainly an issue which affects a small number of countries dramatically.
And it's highly, highly concentrated even within those countries by neighbourhoods.
And we show this through map representations. The chapter on demography highlights the factor that many of us have demographic mindsets
which are not able to keep up with the reality of extraordinarily rapid demographic change,
rapid in terms of the transformation of fertility, ageing and where people are well over half the world's population is in this zone.
In China, India, Indonesia. And we show how in this area, and particularly in East Asia, population growth is slowing in dramatic ways.
Fertility much, much slower now than many people imagined.
Indeed, over half the countries in the world are below replacement level.
We show snapshots over time to reflect this.
And what you see here in the growing yellow is the growth of below replacement fertility levels and much of the world in that zone.
Even in Africa, there's an extremely rapid transformation of this.
And we only have about five countries left where we think we will not be
transitioning over the next 20 years to very slow reproduction levels of fertility.
And this, of course, is due to women's education, jobs, information and options.
Having contraception and other tools. And we showed that.
So we need to remove from our mental maps. That is a population pyramid.
They still exist in a few places like Nigeria.
But the maps of the future, the mental map, should be much more informed by those of the Republic of Korea or the US.
Korea more like a coffin shaped standing up and the US. Similarly so where we have many, many more elderly people.
What you also see from all these population projections, as we depict for all countries of the world,
is many more elder women than men because women are wiser than men.
They don't make as many stupid decisions in terms of drinking, smoking and violence and live longer around the world.
Also, gender inequality at the bottom. Where people have the ability to choose and sex and societies are very discriminating against women.
People are choosing to have men and so you get these very skewed dynamics going forward.
Coming out of the demography chapter, we have a focus on migration, which has been a longtime passion of mine.
And this really is able to show very vividly how.
Demography is confined largely to small number of corridors and these corridors or mainly corridors within regions, not between regions.
And that is very, very easily highlighted. Using these maps, we depict where the migrants are coming from and where they are going to.
And what you see here. The blue is arrival's net.
Arrival's the red net departures from countries is that within Africa, they are many net arrival places,
mostly coastal and of course, Europe, the US, Australia and the Emirates, very strong net arrival centres.
And how this is changing over time with the growing number of people going not least to the Gulf area, less to Europe, less to the US.
We depict refugee flows. Each of these dots reflects 17 refugees.
And what you see in this is a story where over 90 percent of the refugees go to
neighbouring countries and they are the main absorbers of the devastation that wars,
conflict and other sources of refugees create. Using these maps, we are able to show how countries suddenly become major sources of refugees.
You see Syria not much. And then suddenly it explodes in terms of the number of refugees coming from Syria, Iraq previously as well.
And this changes over time. So we have these. Starts and stops the refugee flows, and we are currently in a period as we show of the maximum.
Most refugees in Africa. Two other African countries.
And in the Middle East to other Middle Eastern countries, very small shares of the flows.
As we show to the wealthier countries. Less than five percent.
The chapter on food shows many different aspects of this, but amongst them is the fact that we are not certainly running out of food,
that there are a lot of sources of food, that intensity that,
for example, the Netherlands, one of the biggest exporters of food with variable and land in new ways,
and that over eating is becoming a much bigger problem in many countries than starvation.
This flip from malnutrition to poor nutrition and particularly over eating.
We show in maps the link between climate change and nutrition, and we call for flexitarian diets.
We also show how palm oil is devastating. Indonesia and Malaysia.
The deforestation of that. This is the palm oil which comes from there.
By far, the major source of international oil is these two countries.
And the source of that is the devastation of the forests within those areas.
We look at bovine meat trade in a farm in the similar sort of way,
showing how it is responsible for the destruction of the Amazon and the connexions between what you eat and where it comes from.
This live trade in food and animals, as well as the implications for the places it's coming from,
a better awareness of where what we consume comes from is vital.
The story, which I wasn't aware of, is how aquaculture, the growing of fish is now much more significant than ocean farming or fish or fishing.
And this is the growth in China of that. And what you see here is that basically the capture from oceans has stagnated.
We are overfishing the oceans dramatically. But aquaculture has become a very vibrant source of protein in many, many places.
And that, of course, is going to need to be enhanced. We look at the connexion between climate change and nutrition and are extremely
concerned because our analysis suggests drawing on Oxford Martin school work,
that the number of people dying from climate change related nutritional local emergencies is likely to grow very, very quickly.
And we show this in these graphics or where we see the increase that's depicted in red of the number of mean deaths per capita as a result of that.
There are many dimensions of life expectancy that we consider.
The one that's most important for most people is life expectancy at birth.
And what we show is the wonderful story,
the good news about how this is improving everywhere and that it's really only a couple of countries in Africa where it remains under 55 years of age,
either through conflicts or in the case of Swaziland, in the city, in southern Africa, HIV AIDS.
But the progress in terms of life expectancy of over 20 years over the last 40 years is something that we're able to chart.
And we do project that going forward as well. The attainments in education are also quite astounding.
The improvements in global literacy rate as the world in data shows around the world that are laggards.
Are they great sources of worry and not least in terms of mean years of schooling?
But the convergence which we see continuing is going to continue.
We do discuss how covered 19 is likely to set this back,
and the share of the population with no formal education has greatly been reduced
over this period of time as well as we show in the progress of these maps.
The. Internet and the spread of the Internet is something that is depicted in yellow
is those that don't yet have Internet and we see how penetration has improved.
And again, is likely to continue to improve.
Culture is not often thought about in terms of Macs, but we find what we can to depict cultural soft power.
So the growth of these Confucius Institutes, the British is due to Germany, sued the French Institute.
How they've spread around the world and increasingly Chinese. And the withdrawal of the soft power power of the U.S. and European countries.
We also depict the decline of languages and other dimensions of culture,
as well as in a fun graphic depicting the spread of McDonald's, for example, around the world.
And what does the concluding chapter seeks to bring together?
A lot of these different trends and. Provides policy recommendations, which we draw out of each chapter on how people have addressed these challenges,
why the good stories have been there,
and why bad, bad circumstances persist, whether it's in literacy or Internet connectivity,
whether it's an inequality, climate change or in other areas.
There's certainly an extraordinary amount to be worried about, not least in this time.
And as we were writing this, we were due to finish in January, but we ended up finishing in June to take accounts of COGAT 19.
The fires in Australia were happening and we were seeing the spread of the impact of climate change.
The fires in Australia, in California and elsewhere, and, of course, covered 19.
Take making an impact around the world.
But we were also very taken in the book by the good news, by the fact that they've been in so many areas, tremendous improvements.
One of them, for example, is on mortality. Here's another way of looking at mortality, which is how many people under five die.
And what you see here is just comparing 1990 with 2020.
You see that whereas in 1990, large parts of the world suffered from well over 40 deaths per thousand life births.
Now, this is unusual and confined to a small number of African countries.
That sort of change and is depicted in so many ways in the book is what inspires us,
the ability of countries to change their destiny and the ability of the world community to make a massive difference to that.
And we chart how this coalition of willing actors, of countries, of communities, in many cases cities,
companies working together, learning from each other, can make that difference.
The story of renewable power in the US, although many in a month are not aware of this, is also an inspiring story.
It shows how the combination of incentives at the different state level is able to now in many states,
lead to renewable power being by far the stronger source of power, the greatest source of power than fossil fuels.
And this has happened over a very, very quick period of time as we compare nineteen eighty five with twenty nineteen.
In these images,
we show the growth of wind power photovoltaic and how this is likely in many states in the very near future to overtake other sources.
Indeed, even in Texas, we think that is the case.
In somewhat we have in the book is a series of analysis of the key dimensions which we think will shape the future key dimensions,
which we believe will allow us. To, by reflecting on them, shape our future for the better.
None of these are set in stone.
Whether it's inequality or climate change or the pandemic or other dimensions, we believe that when we have this analytic capability,
when we develop the community solidarity and the ability to work together, we will be able to do that.
And we hope that the book, by providing insights into this, gives people perspective, but also inspiration.
We've been delighted with the early response it's received that Martin Rees said this was
the book he would take to a desert island and that so many others have found it useful.
And we hope that if you do take the opportunity to look at it, to get it, that you will find the same.
It's a beautifully presented book. It's a book which unfortunately is rather heavy and.
That's. Requires some looking at.
And there it is. A rather fat book.
So that's my introduction to it. And now let me turn to the questions that have appeared, and I'll take the one first that has the most votes.
And it is. Do you think that humanity can continue to support globalisation and growth and be sustainable at the same time?
This is a key question and goes to the heart of what we've been trying to analyse in the book.
And what it shows is that these huge inequalities and it's not about how many people in a place you have many places with extraordinary
density or population which are living relatively harmoniously with the planet and other places of which are living far beyond their means.
I mentioned New York State as an example, consuming more energy and antibiotics than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.
I do not believe that we can stop economic growth for those that do not yet habits.
I believe that would be to condemn Africans, Latin Americans and Asians that are living in dire poverty to permanent poverty,
because even if everyone got the same income, they wouldn't be able to live a decent life.
It's also the case, particularly after the pandemic in the rich countries,
that we're going to have to develop a very different type of economic model to be able to cope with the growing inequalities,
the enormous imbalances which have been since stone set in place.
But what the pandemic has demonstrated to us is two things which I never thought in January would be possible in 2020.
The one is. That we can change our behaviour very quickly.
People have given up their social lives, they've given up. The ability to travel, to fly.
To do other things in a very, very short period of time, because they believe it's in the common good.
And particularly young people have given this up, which has been astounding, the sacrifices of the young for the old.
We can't change our behaviour and we have to change it urgently to meet this challenge of sustainability, climate, water, food and other areas.
And certainly eating less meat is a vital part of that.
But there are many other dimensions to that, including wearing a jumper inside rather than turning the heating on, changing to renewable energy.
The second thing that the pandemic has demonstrated to us very forcefully is that governments can act and find the money when they want to.
The old taboos of orthodoxy. Were totally broken with this pandemic.
What would have been regarded as impossible for governments to do in January is now commonplace.
The rich countries have set aside over 10 percent of their GDP is in the UK alone.
We've taken on 350 billion. Pounds of new debt.
This would have been unimaginable in peacetime. It has never happened before.
And so governments can act. They can support firms. They can support workers.
They can find the resources and some countries, particularly Europe and South Korea,
have shown that this can be done as part of a green new deal to create full employment and to create a more urgent carbon transition.
So I'm confident that we can grow in a way that is sustainable.
But it does require those two things, that chain. It requires a change.
In our behaviour, and it requires a change in government regulation and incentives to stop subsidising dirty fuels,
to stop the bads of globalisation not only in climate but in other dimensions.
And to ensure a decent life for everyone. To me, the story is not about growth.
We have to grow particularly poor people have to grow out of poverty.
But it's about redistribution and the levers of power and about our own behaviour as individuals at all levels,
individuals, communities, cities, nations and the global community.
The second is a question. Sorry, I should have gone down the list.
There's a question with eight votes. In writing the book, what finding surprised you positively or negatively the most?
That's a very interesting and difficult question. There are many things in the book which surprised me negatively.
I haven't seen the extent without being up close to of the melting of the third pole of the glaciers and ice caps.
And the extent to which this has happened shocked me deeply.
I haven't seen the extent to which we are dependent on, for example, palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia.
Some of the demographic changes, I hadn't appreciated the extent of them either.
And I think I had and appreciate the extent to which the US is engaged in an energy transition.
Until I looked at the details with Rob Mugga, my co-author of that.
So there are many good, good and bad dimensions which have been surprising.
I think I also did find throughout the book that trying to make sense of these maps gave me a perspective,
historical perspective and a perspective, thinking about the way this will evolve, which was different.
It's the breadth and depth of this. And working with Rob, who's an expert in areas that I'm not.
He's an expert on urbanisation, on violence and on geopolitics, for example, which I certainly am not.
Took me a huge amount about those dimensions. For example, that image of more people dying, many more people dying of pollution than murder and crime.
I had no idea of exactly the scale of that and its ubiquity.
That had nine votes. So I'm just going through to cheque where.
What would be next? I think this one with four votes. The book highlights.
Sorry. That's gone down now. The book highlights so well the interconnected nature of the world's problems.
Thank you. What needs to change for more countries to realise that more global coordination and
improved international governance is necessary to help us manage these problems?
I think what needs to change is a number of things.
Firstly, pandemics are extremely unusual and we highlight this in that they the only problem we face that really can come from anywhere in the world.
The smallest country, the poorest country or the richest country and the richest place.
And that requires really does require global coordination, although the things that will stop it, like vaccines, can come from one place.
And of course, the rules like those being embodied in the WTO can come from one place.
But it's an unusual example. Most of the challenges we face, and this is highlighted in the book on climate, for example,
where we identified 100 countries that account for something like 70 percent of fossil fuel emissions.
The dozen countries that account for that and within the countries, the cities, a small group of actors generally can solve most of most problems.
The paratus principle, you can generally solve 80 percent of the problems with 20 percent or less of the actors.
And we found this very much building on the work of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations, which Pascal Amin led to be the case in many.
And what we are able to do is outline who those actors would be.
In many cases it's countries, but in some cases it's companies.
It's cities that can do a huge amount. And we show that it's actors stopping things like stopping the Amazon.
Deforestation is going to require the big companies, which account for a large part of the trade acting as well as people changing their diets.
And, of course, rules and regulations, satellite imagery and other dimensions of this.
So I think we have been able to through this process.
Help highlight some of the governance challenges around this and how one acts on it.
Clearly, this is a massive issue and not least in the context of what we discuss in the geopolitics chapter, which is.
Polemic, polemic, politics. Politics, which does not embrace these global challenges.
And therefore, what happens in countries like the US are really matters.
We highlight how much progress China's made on many dimensions.
But there's no problem we can think of that won't involve effectively as we show China, the US and Europe working together.
And unless those three actors are able to work together,
it's very difficult to imagine that any of the great, great challenges that we face are addressed.
Three votes. How are dynamic changes over time displayed in the book?
Are they changing maps over time available online?
Good question from Andrew Briggs. The book is a static book in the sense we have snapshots of these dynamic images that I've shown.
But the Earth time resource, which is behind the dynamic images.
They have a Web site. And you can go to the Earth Time Web site to do that.
We also are developing, Rob and I, a Web site which we hope will be more integrated with the book.
But at the moment, it's basically the Earth Time Web site, which has much more.
And some of these images are also and we cite the sources for them or public about a lot.
For example, the NASA images are available on the NASA Web site, our welding data on our welding data Web site and other publicly available Web sites.
Two votes. Have you been able to map digital pollution over other forms of pollution?
We seem to lock down to slow down pollution on the right and by confirmation to cheque on the girls.
New York State consumes. Yes, that's the points are right on antibiotics and electricity.
And you'll see the numbers in the book. And digital pollution.
By which I presume you mean fake news. The spread of bad ideas.
Cybercrime as well. And others. Sarah. It's good to see that you that you're online.
Yes. The awesome images which show bad the spread of bad ideas and bad things.
And we discussed this in the text. It's the underbelly of the digital, just as financial transactions which are illegal, illicit credit,
financial disaster in the worst case of financial flows and other vulnerabilities of globalisation.
So those are discussed in a variety of places, including in the chapter on politics and on culture.
So can individual people really have an impact?
Or do you think it's only major policy changes that can change things?
I would argue that it's individuals in the end, the summation of individual decisions that make policy changes.
And even in countries where there appears to be no connexion between the politicians and the people, like highly authoritarian countries, in the end,
as I've seen from my own country, South Africa, in the end, individual will does move societies,
although it can be extremely torturous and painful and take a very, very long time.
So individual people make an enormous difference.
And I think increasingly so because of our connectivity and because we recognise we no longer atomised in the way that we
were in the world before the World Wide Web and Internet movements that starts spontaneously be at the Metoo movement,
be a greater Thornberg. And her actions on a whole variety of fronts beat the extinction.
Rebellion bids good ideas and bad ideas that spread virally on the Internet through social media and elsewhere.
And so I do believe that in effect, there's a battle of ideas and that unless individuals engage,
they give over that battle to those that could have very bad ideas.
And so being on the sidelines and individuals not taking a position, whether it's in how they live their lives,
what they do, what they consume or in the realm of ideas and digitally.
In my view, is to to effectively give over to the other side to forces which don't believe,
for example, in climate change, will spread fake news about it to vaccinations or others.
So copying opting out is not really an option if you want to change the world.
We can try and live on an island in a cocoon, but the world will come to us in the end as it will tear down our forests.
It will lead to burning fires. It will give us a pandemic or whatever.
There's no wall high enough even for the mightiest countries to be islands to try and stop climate change or pandemics by cocooning themselves.
And there's no wall high enough that will insulate the richest people in the world from what's happening in the world.
And so I I believe that what this hyper connectivity has done and covered 19 has shown more than anything else is a demonstration.
Of individuals being connected, that we are only as strong as our weakest parts.
And unless we act together to manage this, we are all very vulnerable.
And I think that's been graphically demonstrated through this. I think that's all the questions that have to votes or more.
I've dealt with the question on do we have. There's not a companion C.D.
So that's to go back to that. Lynn Martin would approach.
Thanks for for watching Lee, and he's been involved in the Oxford Martin School since the very, very beginning of it.
In fact, long before I arrived in the works of Martin School. She was thinking with her husband, Jim, about creating it.
So thank you, Lillian, for being engaged and for everything you've done.
We're approaching the different parts of the book in order then arranged to be advised.
Does it rely on previous parts? No. It's an unusual book in that respect.
It's the only one I've written that that really doesn't matter where you start in it.
If you interest in one particular topic, climate change, inequality, technology.
Dive in there. I hope that you'll find the others of interest.
But over time, as you can also use it as a reference book and go to the areas that you that you want.
And of course, the index and table of contents on maps will help guide that.
But it is unusual in that I hope you read the introduction and conclusion because those those do provide the context.
We have time for a couple more questions, if I'm quick. Have you mapped, covered and toxic air pollution?
Yes, we have. The book was completed at the end of June.
Penguin, who are the publishers to the most amazing job of printing it very quickly.
They were going to printing in China, but then they end up printing it in Italy.
And and so we spread we makeover to the end of June.
And that's our Cut-Off date. But in the way we approach it and pointing to what sources we use, we hope that that's helpful.
It's a as a demonstration of the butterfly effect of globalisation,
as a demonstration of what we were already talking about in the book, which is the spread of other pandemics.
Spanish flu sores, Ebola. So Murres and others.
And so we link it to that. And, of course, use it as an illustration not only of how you can use maps,
but also how you how globalisation can be managed and the very different ways in which different places have done it.
But it does have to be managed globally. So, yes, urbanisation and migration.
Good for India. Yes. You see.
Mike, you know, as I've argued in exceptional people and elsewhere, migration is the greatest source of progress for humanity has always been,
and it's by going to places which have higher productivity, by people coming together,
that they innovate, that they create new ideas and that they conquer adversity.
So we are all migrants, depending on how far back we look and an increasingly urban.
And certainly that is going to be the story for India as well.
Do you have a map showing over time, possibly the last 50 years, the change in poverty?
Yes, we have a lot of graphics on poverty. We use our world in data sources and some of the others.
And these are, in today's terms, in the currency of today.
And thanks in for so coming online for this.
It's good to see you are parts of us. I think I've got time for one more question.
Let me take the most work. Okay. Where can we push the book other than Amazon dot com?
Very good question. You can purchase it from a whole variety of different sources just if you if you look at it.
You'll have to look at it. Google, which is, I suppose, the Amazon or hub of the Internet search engines, but it's available at Waterstones.
It's available if you're in Oxford don't books. It's available at Blackwells.
It's available from all good booksellers and all good websites.
And you certainly don't need to buy it from Amazon.
I see this. Someone's really put up some other links to places for it.
So thanks to you. Well, I'm sorry I didn't get time to go to all your questions, but I hope that if you get it, you enjoy it.
And I hope that in any event, you learnt from this presentation.
Thanks to all of you. And thanks for Oxman School for hosting me. Thank you very much.
That was fascinating. And and thank you for racing through as many of the questions as you could.
And just before we close, I would like to just ask everyone is still online and do keep checking the events that we have coming up.
And also, Martin, so we have a busy programme coming up to this audience in particular.
And you may be interested in our event on the twenty seventh of October.
Again, at five p.m. when we have Jeff Sachs talking about the ages of globalisation and that will actually be hosted by Ian.
So I hope we'll see you back then. And in the meantime, thank you, Ian, and thank you, everyone for coming online and tuning in.