1 00:00:00,210 --> 00:00:06,270 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Oxford Martin School. 2 00:00:06,270 --> 00:00:15,480 My name is Jim Hall and this is the latest in what I have found to be enfolding series of 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:25,860 events on the topic of building back better lessons and opportunities from the Konbit pandemic. 4 00:00:25,860 --> 00:00:34,830 And in the softer Noon's conversation, we're literally going to be talking about building, about infrastructure, 5 00:00:34,830 --> 00:00:46,020 about the energy, transport, water, digital waste networks and the built environment more broadly upon which we all depend. 6 00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:56,580 And infrastructure is getting a great deal of focus in this context of post-conflict recovery. 7 00:00:56,580 --> 00:01:00,090 In fact, after disasters, infrastructure is often looked upon. 8 00:01:00,090 --> 00:01:08,400 We might think about the New Deal, which led to the creation of the Hoover Dam and the Grand Coulee Dam. 9 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:15,000 post-War reconstruction across Europe and Japan and many parts of the world. 10 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:23,970 But this pandemic has been different because nothing has actually been destroyed on the country. 11 00:01:23,970 --> 00:01:34,560 Public acceptance in particular, transport public transport systems, as has really been transformed. 12 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:44,070 And yet many of the people who we've had in these conversations in the in the Oxford Martin schools have spoken about a green recovery, 13 00:01:44,070 --> 00:01:52,710 about how our recovery should be focussed on the huge goal of achieving net zero. 14 00:01:52,710 --> 00:01:58,050 And meanwhile, there's the government's agenda of levelling up, 15 00:01:58,050 --> 00:02:06,750 of dealing with geographical and social inequalities and the saving to discuss these topics. 16 00:02:06,750 --> 00:02:12,990 We have Sir John Armitt. It will be hard to think of someone more qualified to talk about this. 17 00:02:12,990 --> 00:02:17,760 John is chair of the National Infrastructure Commission. 18 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:31,440 He's been absolutely central to infrastructure in this country for many years as a contractor with Lang and Costain and deigning senior 19 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:43,200 client roles as chief executive or chair at Union Railways Network Rail and the celebrated role in the Olympic Delivery Authority. 20 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,320 He's also been on the Board of Transport for London. 21 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:54,060 Part of the airport's commission and was chair of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. 22 00:02:54,060 --> 00:03:04,470 So welcome, Sir John. Thank you for joining us and welcome to all audiences. 23 00:03:04,470 --> 00:03:09,930 For those of you who haven't been in these events before. 24 00:03:09,930 --> 00:03:16,560 Let me remind you first that the event is being recorded and it will be available 25 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:23,400 later for you to look at again or pass on to people who may have missed the event. 26 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:34,200 And you can ask questions by putting them in the Q&A box and you can actually vote on questions as well. 27 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:41,580 And those votes will push the questions to the top of the list in front of me. 28 00:03:41,580 --> 00:03:47,760 But before we get to the questions. So, John, over to you. 29 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:57,570 A lot is being expected of infrastructure, not least from our prime minister, who has a penchant for the ground project. 30 00:03:57,570 --> 00:04:07,200 But can the infrastructure actually deliver on Kovik net zero and levelling out? 31 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:11,070 Well, thank you, Jim, and good evening, everyone. 32 00:04:11,070 --> 00:04:20,470 I mean, clearly, these are the three topics covered and recovering the economy, recovering from coverage. 33 00:04:20,470 --> 00:04:31,410 And the role of infrastructure, I think is probably, in a sense, the bigger challenge of expecting too much is the bigger challenge. 34 00:04:31,410 --> 00:04:37,530 The point about infrastructure is that it takes time to plan. 35 00:04:37,530 --> 00:04:45,220 It takes time to move on from concepts to the point where you go for planning consent and then take two or three years. 36 00:04:45,220 --> 00:04:49,930 And so you've got a five year front end, probably for any significant project. 37 00:04:49,930 --> 00:04:56,640 And of course, as we've seen with some projects, the 20 year front end before, actually the shovels go in the ground. 38 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,540 So when government has been saying to us in the last. Months. 39 00:05:01,540 --> 00:05:06,190 Well, what would you recommend we get on with? Which is shovel ready? 40 00:05:06,190 --> 00:05:10,900 It's not an easy question to answer, but the answer we have given is. 41 00:05:10,900 --> 00:05:15,820 Well, actually, one of these things which you can't get on more quickly with is, 42 00:05:15,820 --> 00:05:21,250 for example, the roll out of the infrastructure required for electric vehicles. 43 00:05:21,250 --> 00:05:26,610 That's relatively low, low, relatively low skill at that. 44 00:05:26,610 --> 00:05:34,180 And in many respects, because there's a lot of it's about digging trenches and the cheaper parts of that is actually putting in the cable. 45 00:05:34,180 --> 00:05:42,660 And the connexion, the expensive part is the civil engineering front end in a in a in a similar way to that. 46 00:05:42,660 --> 00:05:49,090 Of course, the roll out, which is already underway, a full fibre accelerating that is as much as possible, 47 00:05:49,090 --> 00:05:53,650 is another way of doing something which can be got on with quickly. 48 00:05:53,650 --> 00:05:58,650 And I never cease from saying to government, don't forget current expenditure. 49 00:05:58,650 --> 00:06:04,060 And, you know, if you were to say to the public what irks the most about our infrastructure, 50 00:06:04,060 --> 00:06:11,890 potholes would be fairly close to the top of the list and therefore releasing money as we recommend it. 51 00:06:11,890 --> 00:06:19,210 Back in 2018, we recommended the government five hundred million a year for the next five years be push 52 00:06:19,210 --> 00:06:25,880 towards local authorities to help them get on with the with road maintenance activity. 53 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:31,750 So those are the sort of things which you can get on with immediately postcode. 54 00:06:31,750 --> 00:06:33,310 We've also been asked, of course, 55 00:06:33,310 --> 00:06:42,970 to do work on behavioural changes arising out of Kovik and we're expected to do that work in the next six to nine months. 56 00:06:42,970 --> 00:06:50,320 Arguably, that's too quick. That's too fast. Well, we actually have any really clear picture of what the world is postcode. 57 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:56,200 I mean, Jim mentioned the whole issue of the attitude towards public transport. 58 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:56,440 I mean, 59 00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:04,960 I'm I'm chairman of National Express and we have our own views as to what pace we think people are going to come back to using public transport. 60 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:12,820 But Will, it's very difficult to to draw on just just what pace there will be a pick up of public transport. 61 00:07:12,820 --> 00:07:20,800 Government has been very successful at telling us or not to get on public transport. And of course, they've now got to reverse that message. 62 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:26,760 And that will be interesting to see how successful that is. 63 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:31,120 I mean, zero carbon is clearly there, a very big part of it. 64 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:38,140 I think what's driving infrastructure investment actually, interestingly, is the whole zero carbon agenda. 65 00:07:38,140 --> 00:07:43,240 It's a sort of virtuous circle in that sense that the big challenges in hydrogen and is 66 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:50,740 in energy and the sources of energy and nuclear is clearly still there on the agenda. 67 00:07:50,740 --> 00:07:54,490 But no agreement whatsoever between governments and the private sector yet as 68 00:07:54,490 --> 00:07:59,950 to how it's going to be paid for and how the risks are going to be allocated. 69 00:07:59,950 --> 00:08:06,280 Heat is probably one of the biggest challenges of all. How are we going to address the question? 70 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,080 Is it hydrogen and wick? 71 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:15,010 And how long is it going to take us to get to the point where we know how we can produce hydrogen at any sort of economic rate? 72 00:08:15,010 --> 00:08:19,540 And how do we then distribute it safely? Or are we going to go down the heat pump route to pump? 73 00:08:19,540 --> 00:08:24,910 Sounds seductive, but not much use unless the home that they're being applied to is efficient. 74 00:08:24,910 --> 00:08:34,270 The bulk of our housing stock is not efficient. So heat pumps not necessarily an immediate and easy answer to to heat. 75 00:08:34,270 --> 00:08:38,050 And of course, improving the general efficiency of our housing stock has proved one of the most 76 00:08:38,050 --> 00:08:43,570 difficult things politically to to achieve in recent years have been many failed starts. 77 00:08:43,570 --> 00:08:48,370 And at the moment, the gains government's allocated some money to that, too. 78 00:08:48,370 --> 00:08:54,490 Over the coming years, but getting public acceptance of people coming in and trampling all over your home in 79 00:08:54,490 --> 00:08:58,330 order to make it more efficient is not particularly attractive to the public and not good. 80 00:08:58,330 --> 00:09:01,690 They're not going to be willing to borrow lots of money to do it. 81 00:09:01,690 --> 00:09:11,200 So that whole programme and how you take that programme forward with either public housing or private housing is a real, real challenge. 82 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,410 Back to electric vehicles. I think that is something which is interesting. 83 00:09:15,410 --> 00:09:22,570 The government's made a very clear policy objective that to not allow the sale of petrol and diesel after 2030, 84 00:09:22,570 --> 00:09:26,530 that will only be practically deliverable as a policy if, in fact, 85 00:09:26,530 --> 00:09:31,120 the infrastructure is there to charge these vehicles and people are willing to buy them. 86 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:38,650 So, again, there is a need for delivery as opposed to policy and as attention inevitably that between how much 87 00:09:38,650 --> 00:09:47,020 government has to inject some support into that and how much they can rely on the private sector to do it. 88 00:09:47,020 --> 00:09:50,730 The whole issue of natural capital, of course, is part of that. 89 00:09:50,730 --> 00:09:59,490 A zero carbon agenda and the use of natural capital for our infrastructure, our great, great capital is there is another debate on. 90 00:09:59,490 --> 00:10:10,110 Coming up, I fear there's a risk that this is a very obvious and politically popular slogan, 91 00:10:10,110 --> 00:10:19,140 but there will be a limit to the public patience as to how long they can wait to see any real action in that field. 92 00:10:19,140 --> 00:10:30,550 We believe it requires more devolution of decision making and devolution of finance to enable that those decisions to be fulfilled at a local level. 93 00:10:30,550 --> 00:10:38,970 That is something where there is, I think, still quite some quite a major question mark over that, the degree to which the government is willing, 94 00:10:38,970 --> 00:10:50,970 if you like, to sort of release the reins and to be more trusting of city mayors and combined authorities in allocating resources. 95 00:10:50,970 --> 00:10:56,220 The tendency still at the moment tends to be that they have to bid for the 96 00:10:56,220 --> 00:11:02,310 financial resources necessary to level up using infrastructure as part of that. 97 00:11:02,310 --> 00:11:09,900 So I think that's quite a long way to go on that whole devolution debate and infrastructure by itself isn't going to deliver levelling up. 98 00:11:09,900 --> 00:11:16,800 There are other factors, particularly skills and training, which are going to need to be addressed in a significant way. 99 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:25,080 So there's a few introductory thoughts anyway. Thanks very much indeed for that, John. 100 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:32,040 And a number of points I'd I'd like to come back on. 101 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:40,650 First of all, in relation to the fact that the demand side shock with respect to public transport. 102 00:11:40,650 --> 00:11:43,950 And you were all on the airports commission. 103 00:11:43,950 --> 00:11:52,800 Do you think we're going to see a third runway at Heathrow and fat HST to a lot of the argument there was around? 104 00:11:52,800 --> 00:12:03,510 Well, the justification was around capacity. On what sort of timescales do you see those that demand ramping back up? 105 00:12:03,510 --> 00:12:12,720 I think the both very fascinating questions. I mean, as you say, when I was on the airport commission, we were looking at a continuous growth. 106 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:19,260 I mean, Heathrow itself runs at something like 98 percent capacity and it doesn't need very much to go wrong. 107 00:12:19,260 --> 00:12:25,980 Heathrow before the wheels come off. And you could see a continued potential growth, 108 00:12:25,980 --> 00:12:35,050 particularly with expansion of international markets requiring an improvement in the facilities at Heathrow. 109 00:12:35,050 --> 00:12:41,070 Of course, the big challenge at Heathrow is that investment largely comes essentially does come from the private sector. 110 00:12:41,070 --> 00:12:49,530 And so the you know, that is going to be a a group of pension funds and private sector owners of 111 00:12:49,530 --> 00:12:55,500 Heathrow making the decision as to when they feel is the right time to make that, 112 00:12:55,500 --> 00:13:04,150 to take that bet on investing sort of Circo fifteens 20 billion pounds as being the right time. 113 00:13:04,150 --> 00:13:13,510 I personally I would say this is still a good bet to make in the long term. 114 00:13:13,510 --> 00:13:19,690 But of course, this won't get finished until 2030, even if they press the button tomorrow. 115 00:13:19,690 --> 00:13:28,440 So that sort of judgement, which has to be made in a commercial sense against some seeing what's happening. 116 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,850 I mean, if I were them, I suspect they're not going to make a decision in the next 12 months. 117 00:13:32,850 --> 00:13:45,590 They'll wait for 12 to 18 months before they can see what's happening on the global markets in terms of the travelling expectation. 118 00:13:45,590 --> 00:13:52,960 We don't personally continue to believe in cities. I continue to believe in people's desire to actually travel. 119 00:13:52,960 --> 00:14:03,270 I read something this morning about virtual holidays and the fact that that's picked up as a market in the last in the last year. 120 00:14:03,270 --> 00:14:09,120 I mean, at the end of the day, a virtual holiday is not going to give you the opportunity to go on your sightseeing trip and then go to the local 121 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:15,980 restaurants and do all the other things that we do when we go on on on holiday to get the full the full experience. 122 00:14:15,980 --> 00:14:24,210 So. And with the growth of the growth of the economies in Asia particularly, 123 00:14:24,210 --> 00:14:28,350 and the need and the expectation of people in the Asian economies to be able to travel 124 00:14:28,350 --> 00:14:36,060 the world and then use the increased income and spend it in that discretionary way, 125 00:14:36,060 --> 00:14:44,610 I would expect to continue. So in in that sort of medium to long term, I would think those markets are still going to come back. 126 00:14:44,610 --> 00:14:49,480 Now, when it comes to rain in the UK, people are saying, well, 127 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:54,400 probably there might be a diminution in the number of executive journalists being made 128 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:59,440 that creates an interesting revenue stream challenge because like the aeroplanes, 129 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:07,080 more of the revenue comes from the sort of first class ticket or the front end of the aeroplane, which subsidises the back end of the aeroplane. 130 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:15,350 So if you see a drop off in executive travel, that's going to have an impact on on fares overall. 131 00:15:15,350 --> 00:15:22,000 But I don't see, you know, maybe a 20 percent drop in executive travel, perhaps, where people will say, 132 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:27,550 well, do we really need to go on the train, go for that meeting face to face, or can we do it over Zoome? 133 00:15:27,550 --> 00:15:33,130 Yes, we've all got used to zoom. We can see the advantages and disadvantages of Zoom. 134 00:15:33,130 --> 00:15:42,100 Every boulder I'm on, everybody's can't wait for the moment when they actually get back to a proper probable beating as opposed to zoom board meeting. 135 00:15:42,100 --> 00:15:46,540 But there will be choices which will now be created as a consequence of government. 136 00:15:46,540 --> 00:15:52,900 So yes, there must be a risk of some drop off. How many people will work from home and not go back to the office? 137 00:15:52,900 --> 00:16:01,000 Totally contradictory views being bandied around about that at the moment between different companies and what they think is going to happen. 138 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:07,660 I read the other day somebody who has been doing this since September and the interesting that they said 139 00:16:07,660 --> 00:16:12,850 the worst thing is not having control of your staff and then choosing whether they come in Tuesday, 140 00:16:12,850 --> 00:16:14,640 Thursday or Friday, 141 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:24,670 and if they are going to have a more working from home approach than it needs to be much more directed and controlled by the company to say. 142 00:16:24,670 --> 00:16:27,970 Right, okay. Almost. But we had dress down Friday in the old days. 143 00:16:27,970 --> 00:16:36,430 It's now going to be a work from home Friday because that having the whole mixture of some people in the office, 144 00:16:36,430 --> 00:16:41,250 some people out of the office, doesn't necessarily work very well when it comes to meetings. 145 00:16:41,250 --> 00:16:44,620 This other research being done, which shows that, in fact, 146 00:16:44,620 --> 00:16:49,750 people are not in the office are less likely to be recognised, less likely to come up for promotion. 147 00:16:49,750 --> 00:16:54,550 You need to be seen to be heard, as it were. And that could be another factor. 148 00:16:54,550 --> 00:17:05,320 So a lot of uncertainties. But I'd be surprised if in the long term, we weren't back at somewhere between 80 and 90 percent of current views. 149 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:18,310 And just still, briefly on on the recovery, you mentioned the sorts of smaller scale things which can be a much shorter lead times. 150 00:17:18,310 --> 00:17:26,710 There are always the ball band, the home insulation, the E.V. charging, fixing the leaks in the water distribution network. 151 00:17:26,710 --> 00:17:31,900 I would add to that. Do you see any any evidence of that actually happening? 152 00:17:31,900 --> 00:17:36,820 I mean, if it's if we're going to stimulate the economy, it needs to be happening now, doesn't it? 153 00:17:36,820 --> 00:17:49,570 Yes. And of course, this is gets you into that very increasing trauma for us, I suppose, between government, the regulator and the utility sector. 154 00:17:49,570 --> 00:18:00,730 And as a continued focus, of course, by the by the regulators and by government on lowest, lowest charge to the consumer, 155 00:18:00,730 --> 00:18:08,020 lowest charge to the consumer, then can act as a constraint on some of the rate of investment or the nature of the investment. 156 00:18:08,020 --> 00:18:18,550 I mean, there's a negotiation still to be had, for example, and finalised between governments and people like Openreach and and Virgin in 157 00:18:18,550 --> 00:18:24,370 terms of how is the last 20 percent of fibre rollout going to be paid for? 158 00:18:24,370 --> 00:18:32,300 And you know, what's gonna be the balance between private sector investment or government support for that last 20 percent? 159 00:18:32,300 --> 00:18:35,300 The harder to reach places, I mean, 160 00:18:35,300 --> 00:18:42,550 that they will compete with one another enormously to be the ones to put a fibre down in the high streets in the centre of town. 161 00:18:42,550 --> 00:18:47,110 They're not going to compete violently to be the ones who takes it down to the to 162 00:18:47,110 --> 00:18:51,580 the small industrial estates in the country with five users on the end of the cable, 163 00:18:51,580 --> 00:18:56,680 which is going to cost, you know, under thousand pounds to cable that. 164 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:07,030 So there is that tension, which is going to need to be addressed to get that full rollout and therefore of addressing that tension sooner rather 165 00:19:07,030 --> 00:19:16,810 than later is what's needed if we are going to get that extra that extra resource directed to particularly fibre. 166 00:19:16,810 --> 00:19:26,470 The Eevee infrastructure, I think is a is a more complex question around what is going to be the nature of E.V. charging. 167 00:19:26,470 --> 00:19:29,680 To what extent can people rely on slow charge? 168 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:37,300 To what extent do you actually need really rapid charge points that actually plays back into the motor vehicle itself? 169 00:19:37,300 --> 00:19:44,540 Because some of the cheaper motor vehicles won't be able to take a superstar superfast charge anyway. 170 00:19:44,540 --> 00:19:53,570 So you've got a again, a real need for collaboration and discussion, which I would argue requires more government leadership, 171 00:19:53,570 --> 00:20:01,310 more willingness by governments get on the front foot and be seen to be more demanding and if necessary, 172 00:20:01,310 --> 00:20:07,640 initially taking some risk before I can step back and say, right, we've got the ball rolling now. 173 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:15,440 We can leave it to the private sector to to continue road maintenance is pretty straightforward. 174 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:19,850 You know, I mean, it's just a case of money, you shovelling the money out the door, quite frankly. 175 00:20:19,850 --> 00:20:24,280 But that comes back to the whole devolution. 176 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:30,590 I mean, what you see at the moment with road maintenance is it all happens in February or March as people sort of rush to get through their 177 00:20:30,590 --> 00:20:41,020 budgets at the end of the financial year to make sure that it's spent because they can't be rolled over into the following year. 178 00:20:41,020 --> 00:20:50,500 Let's some move on to Nazir, and you referred to it in many respects, 179 00:20:50,500 --> 00:21:00,810 they let's say the very positive direction of travel and one might even say a success story in terms of electricity. 180 00:21:00,810 --> 00:21:10,720 The more or less total removal of coal fired generation from from the great in this country, what was it, two months last summer without any coal? 181 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:16,150 A totally wrong on the grid for the first time since the 1980s. 182 00:21:16,150 --> 00:21:25,480 But as the analysis found from the end, I, Sanie, demonstrated that I know a lot of this is down to plummeting cost of offshore wind, 183 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:35,590 which has been a fantastic example of how competition fuels innovation and gets prices down. 184 00:21:35,590 --> 00:21:44,440 But the NYSE analysis showed that it does get more tricky as you get more and more wind onto the grid. 185 00:21:44,440 --> 00:22:01,770 And you were questioning the extent to which new nuclear would be necessary and whether one can make do with hydrogen or other forms of storage. 186 00:22:01,770 --> 00:22:05,710 Why do you think we should go on that? It is becoming more tricky now, isn't it? 187 00:22:05,710 --> 00:22:09,630 That question with respect to the grid, I don't think it's changed. We. 188 00:22:09,630 --> 00:22:17,050 We actually published a report earlier this week on the system operation. 189 00:22:17,050 --> 00:22:24,250 And of course, interestingly, the regulator is seeking to separate the system operator out from national grid 190 00:22:24,250 --> 00:22:29,380 to have the news recognising the importance of the system operator in all this. 191 00:22:29,380 --> 00:22:40,980 And the point we make in our report this week is we we still believe that, in fact, for the consumer in 2050, maybe 2040, 192 00:22:40,980 --> 00:22:47,470 the electricity should need to be no more expensive because you have got a very large reliance on renewables. 193 00:22:47,470 --> 00:22:58,210 But what it will require is more investment in the distribution network systems, using using the sort of digital resources and the use of data. 194 00:22:58,210 --> 00:23:05,920 So smarter and smarter systems in order to cope with the variances which are coming on due to renewables. 195 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:10,930 But we have moved away in our latest analysis from the fact that we think that you can't have 196 00:23:10,930 --> 00:23:21,130 a highly renewable provision of electricity and that you at the moment we would still say. 197 00:23:21,130 --> 00:23:24,750 Yes, get on it if you like, an order, one more nuclear power station. 198 00:23:24,750 --> 00:23:31,720 Still a question mark over whether you'll need anything more beyond tinkly and, say, a Sizewell. 199 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:37,600 And of course, at current rates of which that is I mean, if you worry about brownouts and say, 200 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:43,420 well, we've got to have that sort of traditional baseload facility with nuclear. 201 00:23:43,420 --> 00:23:49,480 Then again, things are moving too slowly. 202 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:57,010 They haven't got to them got a financial basis and a commercial basis going ahead with another nuclear power station at the moment. 203 00:23:57,010 --> 00:24:05,170 EDF clearly not going to make a costs and the programme is overrunning Hinkley. 204 00:24:05,170 --> 00:24:11,580 Not surprisingly, and if you look at the history of nuclear power, that's been the case for the last 25, 30 years. 205 00:24:11,580 --> 00:24:16,960 So I think, you know, potentially you might finish up, 206 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:26,710 coming back to what you have to have green hydrogen combined cycle power stations as being your your basic, 207 00:24:26,710 --> 00:24:35,840 you know, your backup baseload in the way that we've had gas fired power stations as a quick turn on, turn off, back up in the past. 208 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:40,860 So might we be looking at that in the future rather than nuclear? 209 00:24:40,860 --> 00:24:48,500 That that brings you back to what pace? So we developing our understanding of the best way to produce hydrogen. 210 00:24:48,500 --> 00:25:01,940 Yeah. And then on the demand side, you you mentioned heat and buildings and the and the behaviour, 211 00:25:01,940 --> 00:25:17,250 all the resistance and yet the sheer logistical difficulty of doing what needs to be done at scale in people's homes. 212 00:25:17,250 --> 00:25:24,690 Any thoughts on what what needs to be done to actually crack crack? Well, as as we suggested in the first place, 213 00:25:24,690 --> 00:25:32,490 move on the large scale Housing Association owned public housing side because that's where you can't get repetitions. 214 00:25:32,490 --> 00:25:36,120 Big challenge with the private sector is how do you know, 215 00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:40,350 how does anybody walk down the high streets as a as a provider and persuade 216 00:25:40,350 --> 00:25:44,580 sort of sixty percent of the homes in that particular street in Casey Grove, 217 00:25:44,580 --> 00:25:51,810 let's call it, that they should actually spend more money on making their homes more efficient. 218 00:25:51,810 --> 00:25:54,810 People move home on average every seven years or so. 219 00:25:54,810 --> 00:26:03,420 So their willingness to invest in and what essentially is maybe the lost investment, unless it's going to make it easier to sell. 220 00:26:03,420 --> 00:26:11,340 At the end of the day, it didn't work at all under the green under the green incentive of a few years ago. 221 00:26:11,340 --> 00:26:21,660 And I think there is still a major challenge in public trust as to how you get the public to feel that they are being sold, 222 00:26:21,660 --> 00:26:27,870 something which that is where they can trust the supplier or the installer or the energy 223 00:26:27,870 --> 00:26:33,150 company at the end of the day that this is going to be in that in their benefit. 224 00:26:33,150 --> 00:26:37,910 And the smart metering has not helped. That's not been a successful rollout so far. 225 00:26:37,910 --> 00:26:42,780 And in the same way, as, you know, you don't have compulsion on smart metres in the water sector. 226 00:26:42,780 --> 00:26:46,800 So that continues to be a bit of a hit to miss. 227 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:56,260 I mean, I think perhaps, you know, my own view is at the end of the day, the compulsion around metering and smart metering, it will become necessary. 228 00:26:56,260 --> 00:27:03,660 The. How do you get. I mean, companies, you know, everybody every company I'm involved in or every organisation, 229 00:27:03,660 --> 00:27:07,830 I'm sure Oxford University, everybody's drawing up their green strategies and saying, 230 00:27:07,830 --> 00:27:14,780 well, we're going to be carbon zero by 2040, 2050, and we're not going to use so much energy in our buildings and so on. 231 00:27:14,780 --> 00:27:22,860 That, again, it's easy to say, much more difficult to do or require behavioural change will require incentives. 232 00:27:22,860 --> 00:27:27,440 And it's the easiest thing is to look at new buildings. 233 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:33,600 But in 2050, probably in buildings which we haven't built today will not for more than 20 percent of 234 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:38,730 the most of the stock of buildings which are around in 2050 with commercial buildings, 235 00:27:38,730 --> 00:27:46,770 hospitals or will private homes. So we've still got how do we retrofit and how do we deal with the 80 percent of buildings that 236 00:27:46,770 --> 00:27:51,390 are going to be as they are today and we're going to have to be retrofitted in some way? 237 00:27:51,390 --> 00:27:54,690 Well, there's going to have to be a behavioural change by us as occupiers in the way 238 00:27:54,690 --> 00:27:59,430 that we that we use those buildings if we're going to actually reduce demand, 239 00:27:59,430 --> 00:28:05,120 as opposed to only focussing on how do we change our supply mechanisms. 240 00:28:05,120 --> 00:28:13,640 Yeah, well, you're right. There's a great deal of thinking going on about that and Oxford University, which, as you will recognise, 241 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:24,410 there is an organisation with a diverse building stock, let's say a levelling out. 242 00:28:24,410 --> 00:28:31,510 I actually I suppose that is surprising, 243 00:28:31,510 --> 00:28:42,850 possibly a disproportionate amount of the discussion around levelling out ease in relation to infrastructure transport for the north, 244 00:28:42,850 --> 00:28:47,610 for example, how much driving infrastructure can actually do when. 245 00:28:47,610 --> 00:28:50,890 How important is it for levelling out? 246 00:28:50,890 --> 00:28:59,410 Well, where there's a discussion going on at the moment as to whether or not we might do a piece of work on that and try and understand that better. 247 00:28:59,410 --> 00:29:09,490 And in which in what ways can infrastructure be most effectively used to do that? 248 00:29:09,490 --> 00:29:16,150 You know, it's easy to imagine know the extremes, isn't it, that well, if if there's a city sitting there which doesn't have a real connexion, 249 00:29:16,150 --> 00:29:20,470 there's not a decent road connexions, then investors aren't going to make their way there. 250 00:29:20,470 --> 00:29:25,580 On the other hand, if you're talking about marginal improvements. To what extent does that help? 251 00:29:25,580 --> 00:29:30,250 And of course, it's we get into the much wider debate now anyway about, well, you know, 252 00:29:30,250 --> 00:29:38,780 to what extent is infrastructure improving the quality of life rather than just improving the economic cost benefit analysis approach? 253 00:29:38,780 --> 00:29:45,490 And when we did our analysis of Raelynn investments in the North, for example, recently for the government, 254 00:29:45,490 --> 00:29:53,470 and finished up recommending more investment at the cities which are close together rather than the cities which are a long way apart. 255 00:29:53,470 --> 00:30:00,100 That was partly a debate around the use of the rail network, not just for getting to him from work, 256 00:30:00,100 --> 00:30:08,650 but for access to social activities, social amenity, as well as just well, are there going to be more commuters going between A and B. 257 00:30:08,650 --> 00:30:13,570 But interestingly, when you look at that, I mean, if you look at the northeast or the northwest, 258 00:30:13,570 --> 00:30:17,830 70 per cent of people who get on a train are making that journey locally. 259 00:30:17,830 --> 00:30:20,770 They are not making that journey to London. 260 00:30:20,770 --> 00:30:27,310 And in fact, some analysis shows only 10 per cent of journalism made between the northeast, northwest and down to London. 261 00:30:27,310 --> 00:30:31,720 The majority of journeys are actually made between cities in those regions. 262 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:37,090 And therefore, the argument which we propounded to government is that in the short term, medium term, 263 00:30:37,090 --> 00:30:47,180 you are better off making those infrastructure improvements to benefit those northern Midland, Midland cities. 264 00:30:47,180 --> 00:30:53,570 That seems you know, there are other factors which are equally important and skills is certainly one of them. 265 00:30:53,570 --> 00:30:57,860 And that's a whole extra debate system. 266 00:30:57,860 --> 00:31:04,240 But one of the roadblocks in this country at the moment, we are effective in creating skills bridges, for example, 267 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:10,720 from one one set of skills to another, which are needed tomorrow, which can't be taught any longer today. 268 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,100 And how we do that, 269 00:31:12,100 --> 00:31:21,460 whether young people coming out of school have sufficient encouragement to go into further education as a fund as opposed to advanced education, 270 00:31:21,460 --> 00:31:26,380 which frankly, I don't think is is working at the moment to the degree that it should. 271 00:31:26,380 --> 00:31:29,290 That starts back in schools. It doesn't start at 18. 272 00:31:29,290 --> 00:31:38,290 You've got actually got to be getting people into that mentality when they're 10 and 12, not when they're 16 and 18 and it's too late. 273 00:31:38,290 --> 00:31:45,220 So I think Skills is a is a massive debate. And I, I have a personal view, which is that, in fact, 274 00:31:45,220 --> 00:31:55,440 government gets too involved almost in this and industry needs to actually be far more engaged in this in the way that they they are in Germany, 275 00:31:55,440 --> 00:32:00,100 where you get a much more collaborative approach between local governments, 276 00:32:00,100 --> 00:32:05,470 between industry and between the educators as to how best to get the balance between those 277 00:32:05,470 --> 00:32:12,520 who've got a university education and those who've got a technical application or education. 278 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:20,800 But it's you know, that's a big challenge for investors and people wanting to start up new businesses. 279 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:24,580 Oh, come. We've got a number of questions coming up. 280 00:32:24,580 --> 00:32:32,200 Now, which I'll I'll come to it in a moment. But. 281 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:38,580 Looking at the shopping list, we've just talked about that the next question. 282 00:32:38,580 --> 00:32:47,370 Looking at the same old say that the state of the public finances is how much of this is is affordable? 283 00:32:47,370 --> 00:32:58,480 How should we prioritise? Well, I think the interesting thing there, of course, is that so much of this is private sector investment. 284 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:03,700 Public sector investment in infrastructure is only in one, three, three and a half ways. 285 00:33:03,700 --> 00:33:09,070 I was I would suggest there's there's road and rail, which is the bulk of it at the moment. 286 00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:18,460 It's sort of Circo somewhere between twenty three. Twenty five billion a year goes into public expenditure, into infrastructure. 287 00:33:18,460 --> 00:33:25,480 Most of that is road and rail. A small amount goes into flood management and flood control. 288 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:35,420 And there is obviously that which goes to support private sector programmes such as digital, essentially apeace. 289 00:33:35,420 --> 00:33:41,350 And and so the government is in fact, I think, announced a total of about two point three billion in one way or another, 290 00:33:41,350 --> 00:33:48,680 either in supporting battery manufacturer in research or in supporting the rollout of the infrastructure. 291 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,730 But two point three billion over the next five years is, you know, 292 00:33:51,730 --> 00:33:56,710 two percent of what's going on, the total budget of government spend on infrastructure. 293 00:33:56,710 --> 00:34:01,990 But the much bigger investment is being made by the private sector, whether it's in energy, 294 00:34:01,990 --> 00:34:12,280 which is massive, as big at least as transport investment, telecoms and water. 295 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:20,560 All of which are in private sector hands. So their ability to invest is driven by the regulatory regime and the settlements which are reached. 296 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:28,510 And what's the working cost of capital and all these sort of erudite arguments which go on within that sphere. 297 00:34:28,510 --> 00:34:35,380 But government does have a role to play. And we've argued this in terms of better regulation. 298 00:34:35,380 --> 00:34:36,670 We have argued that, in fact, 299 00:34:36,670 --> 00:34:47,170 government should be more directive and broader in its direction to the regulator because the regulator essentially responds to government direction. 300 00:34:47,170 --> 00:34:52,180 So there is an opportunity for government to to influence that. 301 00:34:52,180 --> 00:34:54,910 But in terms of public expenditure at the moment, 302 00:34:54,910 --> 00:35:02,650 it's one point to bear on point two percent of GDP is what the government roughly says to us is the fiscal remit. 303 00:35:02,650 --> 00:35:08,860 Now, that could potentially be increased by a couple of a couple of points going's going forward. 304 00:35:08,860 --> 00:35:15,280 I think what's interesting is the way we seem to be in a bit of a Keynesian moment at the moment, not just in the UK, 305 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:20,800 but around the world in responding to to cover it, particularly need to get economies going again. 306 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:26,380 And so we're seeing bigger. We're seeing more government, not less government. 307 00:35:26,380 --> 00:35:30,580 And you can see in the programmes, whether in Europe or in America or in the UK, 308 00:35:30,580 --> 00:35:40,310 the temptation for government to at the moment take the brakes off and to be willing to put more financial stimulus into economies. 309 00:35:40,310 --> 00:35:43,720 Some part of that will be through through infrastructure. 310 00:35:43,720 --> 00:35:49,360 But of course, inevitably, there will be those who say, well, it's all very well, but sooner or later it's going to have to be paid for. 311 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,140 So you're going to get the money back. 312 00:35:51,140 --> 00:35:59,930 But in the next 12 months, one can see there's probably more pressure on releasing money rather than clawing it back. 313 00:35:59,930 --> 00:36:09,100 Do you think the government and the privatised utilities are getting value for money from the construction sector? 314 00:36:09,100 --> 00:36:13,840 It doesn't have a great reputation for productivity. 315 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:22,030 The Olympics were delivered on time, on time under your leadership. But Crossrail is is not such a great story. 316 00:36:22,030 --> 00:36:30,100 And perhaps this links to your point around skills as well. All we do, we have a sufficiently skilled up construction sector. 317 00:36:30,100 --> 00:36:41,560 No, we probably don't. But I would argue my arguments, having been a contractor and having been a client and everything in between. 318 00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:51,650 What happens in an industry is driven by client. And the degree to which the client is demanding of its supply chain, 319 00:36:51,650 --> 00:37:00,060 the degree to which a client is demanding of the quality degree to which client sets the standards that it expects to achieve, 320 00:37:00,060 --> 00:37:05,970 is what potentially is going to drive innovation and is going to drive price competition more than anything else. 321 00:37:05,970 --> 00:37:13,500 So I would say the people who can drive a better supply chain from the construction industry at the end of the day, 322 00:37:13,500 --> 00:37:17,550 whether it's in the quality of the product or the materials which are being used. 323 00:37:17,550 --> 00:37:23,640 I mean, I was in a debate a couple of days ago where I mean, we were talking about. 324 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:30,630 About this. And I said, well, you know, if if you want less embedded carbon in your buildings, 325 00:37:30,630 --> 00:37:34,590 you're not gonna get that simply because somebody sits there thinking what might be a good idea? 326 00:37:34,590 --> 00:37:40,080 If I came up with a project, a product which was less embedded carbon, you're more likely to get it. 327 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:51,840 If more clients are saying to the designers and the designers, to the contractors and the material suppliers, I require this standard in future. 328 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:59,400 I require this level of embedded carbon to be, you know, from reduced from X to Y over the next five years. 329 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:05,880 Now, how do we work together in a collaborative way between client, designer, supplier, 330 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:13,770 contractor to actually achieve those improved efficiencies and those improved 331 00:38:13,770 --> 00:38:17,880 quality of materials and less carbon in the materials which are being used? 332 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:25,500 Just sitting back and hoping it's gonna happen? It won't happen. There have to be real incentives and real real challenges. 333 00:38:25,500 --> 00:38:34,300 I mean, I'm a supplier. I'm far more interesting offering more returns to my supplier chain. 334 00:38:34,300 --> 00:38:38,260 In order to get my work under budget and on time than I am, 335 00:38:38,260 --> 00:38:45,310 it's in writing endless contracts which set out all the penalties that I'm going to apply to them if they fail, 336 00:38:45,310 --> 00:38:49,360 because their intellect will then go into making sure that they don't pay those penalties. 337 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:55,900 Dreaming up all sorts of reasons why it's my fault. Therefore, put the projects like or overrun on the programme. 338 00:38:55,900 --> 00:39:01,810 So I'd much rather be sitting down with them and saying, why do we need to do next to make sure that we still come in under the budget? 339 00:39:01,810 --> 00:39:07,090 That I can afford and we still come in on the time that I require. That's what we did at the Olympics. 340 00:39:07,090 --> 00:39:11,470 But I think there needs to be a lot more of that approach within the industry to get the 341 00:39:11,470 --> 00:39:15,970 improvements that are required rather than the confrontational approach that the UK, 342 00:39:15,970 --> 00:39:23,620 particularly more so than any other country almost has had for the last 200 years. 343 00:39:23,620 --> 00:39:39,040 That reference to materials, low carbon materials now speaks to a couple of the questions we've got here from Harriet Moggridge and Stephanie Burrow. 344 00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:51,800 And we know that steel and cement as some of the tough nut to crack in terms of decarbonising. 345 00:39:51,800 --> 00:40:02,440 I mean, how much of that do you think can be done with its savings on materials substitution, 346 00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:10,780 or to what extent are we just going to have to rely on carbon capture and storage that still works in cement works playing? 347 00:40:10,780 --> 00:40:21,610 Interesting question, Zain. In in recent years, I think the Chinese have put up a something like a 40 storey building in Superfriends. 348 00:40:21,610 --> 00:40:26,050 Demonstrating that timber is a structural material can be used on a building. 349 00:40:26,050 --> 00:40:37,270 That sort of scale. On the other hand, here, as a consequence of Grenfell and fire regulations or fire standards going forward, 350 00:40:37,270 --> 00:40:45,610 we've almost probably got into sharp reverse gear when it comes to using timber as a material in buildings. 351 00:40:45,610 --> 00:40:50,800 So if you want to actually use timber as an alternative to steel and concrete, 352 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:59,680 then we've got to really get our heads around how we do that in a way which removes that fear of fire in buildings and makes buildings safe. 353 00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:04,990 And you get into a very tricky debate then about what's more important, the building or the person. 354 00:41:04,990 --> 00:41:08,200 Should we actually worry about the building burning down at the end of the day, 355 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:14,770 or should we worry about the means of escape and egress, the way in which if that ultimate problem doesn't rise? 356 00:41:14,770 --> 00:41:20,980 And in fact, more people have died as a consequence of fires in homes than they have in high rise buildings. 357 00:41:20,980 --> 00:41:27,440 So, you know, there are a lot of tricky issues around that area of substitution. 358 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:36,810 Steel, of course. Do you produce it from. And you produce it from a steelworks which relies on coal to fire the furnaces or to use electric car. 359 00:41:36,810 --> 00:41:41,980 Do you use to use them recycled materials? 360 00:41:41,980 --> 00:41:49,030 Now, recycled materials at the moment cost more to produce a tonne of steel than it does if you use coal. 361 00:41:49,030 --> 00:41:53,230 And you've got that debate going on at the moment about whether or not we should have a new coal mine in 362 00:41:53,230 --> 00:42:03,070 this country under the under the sea in order to to fire up our steel mills in Stockport and elsewhere. 363 00:42:03,070 --> 00:42:04,740 I mean, these are these are real. 364 00:42:04,740 --> 00:42:10,860 You know, the end of the day, these are almost binary choices which somebody has to make as to which way they want to go. 365 00:42:10,860 --> 00:42:17,350 Do you want to say, well, we'll have another coal mine because then we don't have to import it from somewhere else? 366 00:42:17,350 --> 00:42:21,280 No, the costs of importing the carbon, which is generated by that. 367 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:27,250 Well, OK. No, we don't want to do that. But if you don't want to do that, then you've got to be prepared to make ORFEUS Steel. 368 00:42:27,250 --> 00:42:33,460 And so you could argue there's a public debate. There's often, I think, in all of these areas of public debate to be had, 369 00:42:33,460 --> 00:42:39,400 which isn't hard as to public understanding of what the choices are, public understanding of. 370 00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:45,130 Do I want to spend a bit more? Do I want to be charged a bit? Or in order to have a, if you like, 371 00:42:45,130 --> 00:42:53,910 a salve my green conscience that in fact we are we are having the right effects or now on our climate change challenges. 372 00:42:53,910 --> 00:43:01,840 I mean, when we were doing the Olympics, we were in discussion again with the cement manufacturers about how they could reduce the carbon, 373 00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:06,130 if you like, the carbon output of their works and in producing their cement. 374 00:43:06,130 --> 00:43:11,920 And that came back to what alternative fuels which could be used in in that regard. 375 00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:15,390 And again, I think you have to set these challenges, Devons, 376 00:43:15,390 --> 00:43:22,930 if you if you get large scale setting challenges where large scale plants acting together are actually willing to set these challenges, 377 00:43:22,930 --> 00:43:33,090 then you'll get the technological innovation which is required to come up with come up with some of these solutions. 378 00:43:33,090 --> 00:43:39,440 There's a question here about water, which we haven't talked about a great deal yet. 379 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:47,850 The NASA did a study on on the water, the resilience of water supplies. 380 00:43:47,850 --> 00:43:54,840 And the question here is around that national wars have great. 381 00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:59,630 But perhaps you could just surmise, Forest, what what you think needs. 382 00:43:59,630 --> 00:44:04,950 Think needs to be done in terms of the resilience of water supplies? 383 00:44:04,950 --> 00:44:14,880 Well, there are two options kicking around. And what's interesting is, since our report is that there has been an increase, I think, 384 00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:21,870 in cooperation between water companies in terms of work, working together, combining their resources, 385 00:44:21,870 --> 00:44:28,200 combining know sort of accepting risk across two or three water companies rather than across just one to say, 386 00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,620 well, you know, if we need to make a significant investment, for example, 387 00:44:31,620 --> 00:44:37,950 in a new reservoir or if we need to look at how we can efficiently move water between us and support 388 00:44:37,950 --> 00:44:45,530 one another in terms of when we've got peaks and peaks of demand and how how best we can come, 389 00:44:45,530 --> 00:44:54,540 can we devise cost efficient pumping systems which move water between one water morseu catchment area and another? 390 00:44:54,540 --> 00:44:57,780 I mean, there is more happening is what I would say. 391 00:44:57,780 --> 00:45:04,890 And I think it's encouraging to see that the water companies are working together more today than they were five years ago. 392 00:45:04,890 --> 00:45:07,170 But that's that's what's required. 393 00:45:07,170 --> 00:45:15,340 I mean, to have a whole national water grid I think is still questionable in terms of can that be done in an efficient way? 394 00:45:15,340 --> 00:45:22,730 It will be. The cost of water is very heavy. Moving water and pumping water around the country is not going to be cheap. 395 00:45:22,730 --> 00:45:31,770 But Opas, I mean, come Skane back to work. Can we reduce demand as opposed to just thinking we've got to meet supply and increase supply all the time? 396 00:45:31,770 --> 00:45:37,320 And how can we get ourselves from using under 30 litres per person a day in our homes, 397 00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:43,380 but down to sort of 80 litres a day with that sort of on the Olympics again? 398 00:45:43,380 --> 00:45:48,570 We we reduce the flow of water in the shallows by 30 percent just by putting a valve in, 399 00:45:48,570 --> 00:45:52,510 which makes sure the athletes got 30 percent less water and they might've thought 400 00:45:52,510 --> 00:45:57,630 they up because behaviourally people don't actually notice that much difference. 401 00:45:57,630 --> 00:46:04,920 And you can actually you can't actually get people used to using a lot less water than they might normally think they need. 402 00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:13,770 So we have to put as much focus, I think, on how do we address how can we address the demand side in our production of paper, 403 00:46:13,770 --> 00:46:19,500 of course, is one of the massive I mean, it's staggering when you see how much water gets used in the production of paper. 404 00:46:19,500 --> 00:46:30,000 So, again, those technological challenges within the manufacturing sector, which need to be to be addressed as much as as much as in the domestic use. 405 00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:35,370 But I think it's it's an area where, you know, I think it's what I'm seeing is is encouraging. 406 00:46:35,370 --> 00:46:41,260 Whether it's fast enough is another question, but at least I think it is starting to move. 407 00:46:41,260 --> 00:46:46,260 And just to have to answer the subquestion on Daniel's question as well. 408 00:46:46,260 --> 00:46:52,050 What about that carbon footprint if I'm pumping water around the country? 409 00:46:52,050 --> 00:47:01,600 Because that depends on where your electricity comes from and where a good way to decarbonising the power network and the attraction of them, 410 00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:14,820 in a sense, if water transfers is you can to some extent, when the renewable electricity is available, you can modify your demand side. 411 00:47:14,820 --> 00:47:18,570 You've also helped the goals. I got the costs of putting the network in, of course. 412 00:47:18,570 --> 00:47:22,590 And if that's going to be in plastic pipes or whatever, then you know what? 413 00:47:22,590 --> 00:47:25,560 What's the carbon footprint of the pipes that's going to be used? 414 00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:31,110 Or can you actually make those movements, as has been suggested, for example, between seven and 10 times? 415 00:47:31,110 --> 00:47:36,540 Can you actually move it between one water course and on the next? 416 00:47:36,540 --> 00:47:41,280 Then you find the next minute you've got a biodiversity debate going on is to 417 00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:45,330 what extent can you mix the water from this watercourse with that water cost? 418 00:47:45,330 --> 00:47:50,340 Now you're going to affect the biodiversity of the with the system, 419 00:47:50,340 --> 00:47:57,840 which is receiving water from somewhere where there's a different sort of geological makeup and so on, that the water is of a different type. 420 00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:04,110 What effect impact does that have on the on on the on the on the on the nature 421 00:48:04,110 --> 00:48:10,620 aspects like the folder in the floor and everything else of the receiving network. 422 00:48:10,620 --> 00:48:18,080 So these are complicated, complicated issues, the periphery bright idea that somebody will turn around and say, well, that might be a bright idea. 423 00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:32,930 But what about this consequence? What about that consequence? Now, there are a couple of questions around electric vehicle charging, both from, 424 00:48:32,930 --> 00:48:40,610 I suppose, the point of view that and maybe in a town like Oxford with crowded streets. 425 00:48:40,610 --> 00:48:50,090 We just struggle to see how exactly that's going to work. And there's a coordination problem here. 426 00:48:50,090 --> 00:48:58,400 Is this best done in a devolved way or to what extent does there need to be national 427 00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:05,390 leadership and indeed national standards to just sort out some of these really tricky, 428 00:49:05,390 --> 00:49:16,580 very local issues? No, no. I was in a conversation before this one, actually one two conversations ago today where we were talking about standards, 429 00:49:16,580 --> 00:49:19,780 not only the standards of the product, but also the standards. 430 00:49:19,780 --> 00:49:30,080 And should there be almost a licence, the skills licence in terms of the people installing these systems and so on? 431 00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:40,800 I mean, this was by somebody who who's actually go to Tesla. And so he was talking about his experience of having that vehicle and the charging. 432 00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:48,770 I mean, yes, I think local planning has a lot to do with this local planning concept, local planning demand again. 433 00:49:48,770 --> 00:49:57,080 So, you know. No, no, Mr. Waitrose, you can't have a new safe new sort of supermarket and a car park unless you are going to pay for the 434 00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:03,740 installation of 20 percent of the car parking spaces or maybe 40 percent of the car parking spaces, 435 00:50:03,740 --> 00:50:10,100 providing a charging opportunity for Evey's. To what extent local authorities are willing. 436 00:50:10,100 --> 00:50:14,210 I mean, so look, many local authorities in London now, 437 00:50:14,210 --> 00:50:21,410 the boroughs are actually you see more and more lampposts with charge points in them in London at the moment. 438 00:50:21,410 --> 00:50:27,880 So I think local local government has a big role to play in the provision of charge points. 439 00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:31,240 When I talk to the people on the charging side of this, 440 00:50:31,240 --> 00:50:39,290 it's quite interesting because they will point out that not all cars are capable of taking superfast charge. 441 00:50:39,290 --> 00:50:46,690 The cheaper cars don't have the battery technology in them to actually take a challenge in 15 minutes before they charge. 442 00:50:46,690 --> 00:50:55,070 They actually rely more on a slower charging mechanism. Easy to deal with in terms of new housing. 443 00:50:55,070 --> 00:50:59,920 But again, it requires legislation to say that every new home will have a charge point. 444 00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:04,900 If it's got a garaged attached to that home in future. 445 00:51:04,900 --> 00:51:10,000 But the normal number of people, of course, have vehicles where they're not parked in the garage. 446 00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:14,610 They're parked on the streets one on one for a start. And I've not yet. 447 00:51:14,610 --> 00:51:21,730 So if that conundrum listed what I might do if I had an electric road in the petrol car, I switch from diesel to petrol. 448 00:51:21,730 --> 00:51:27,640 The next change is clearly going to be from petrol to electric. And how do I deal with that? 449 00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:35,390 So I think this and it seems crazy not to have a single standard. 450 00:51:35,390 --> 00:51:40,680 But then we've not succeeded in that with our electric with our mobile phones, have we? 451 00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:46,680 And it's even worse with the mobile phone, because even if you buy it from the same supplier each time you buy one, 452 00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:54,880 the charge cable from the old one doesn't fit the new one. So you cope for another 20 quid for a new cable. 453 00:51:54,880 --> 00:52:04,010 So whether or not legislation and the introduction of standards will potentially what I think would be a good thing in in that regard. 454 00:52:04,010 --> 00:52:06,490 But then it's not just, you know, it's not local. 455 00:52:06,490 --> 00:52:11,920 I mean, you could argue that's international, because when you take your electric car off across Europe, 456 00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:18,370 you generally want to see a single charging type of opportunity, 457 00:52:18,370 --> 00:52:25,440 single type of cable connexion, whether you're in Italy or whether you're in Germany or whether you're in Poland. 458 00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:29,020 So there are some big international questions around around that. 459 00:52:29,020 --> 00:52:35,830 But at the end of the day, we're not people are going to be reluctant to buy these vehicles unless they can see that 460 00:52:35,830 --> 00:52:41,530 these sort of opportunities for charging their vehicles without hassle are available. 461 00:52:41,530 --> 00:52:44,830 When I listen to somebody on the radio the other day said that she'd driven from 462 00:52:44,830 --> 00:52:51,520 the UK back and it only cost 19 pounds and electricity for her car using the app, 463 00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:56,340 which told her where all the charge points still are at the moment, where there is no charge. 464 00:52:56,340 --> 00:53:01,690 So at the moment, you have got energy companies making energy available for your TV at no charge. 465 00:53:01,690 --> 00:53:06,130 Now, the energy companies themselves say we're only doing this as an introduction. 466 00:53:06,130 --> 00:53:10,480 Most we've got your hopes there will obviously start. We'll start charging you. 467 00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:17,380 But again, we're going to be looking for competition, of course, in terms of that charge. 468 00:53:17,380 --> 00:53:27,910 But electric vehicles are going to be setting aside whether the petrol cost on the electricity cost become the same at the end of the day. 469 00:53:27,910 --> 00:53:34,350 The it's got to be a very complex world, I think, or very simple world. 470 00:53:34,350 --> 00:53:40,030 So will the manufacturer of cars only take place where there is a battery factory next door? 471 00:53:40,030 --> 00:53:44,770 Or are we going to be shipping batteries halfway around the world as we do at the moment? 472 00:53:44,770 --> 00:53:53,200 Or do we actually need to make sure that this is a single facility which makes the car the battery is going to be the most important part of the car. 473 00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:58,240 It's where the value will be. The shell will become cheaper and cheaper. 474 00:53:58,240 --> 00:54:05,500 And the and in a sense, do you even own the vehicle in the future or do you just simply rent the vehicle? 475 00:54:05,500 --> 00:54:14,660 Because what you're really doing is renting the battery. And so does the whole concept of vehicle ownership change as we change to electric vehicles? 476 00:54:14,660 --> 00:54:20,230 The garages will go out of business to a certain extent because there'll be no maintenance or very limited maintenance 477 00:54:20,230 --> 00:54:30,730 compared with what there is today on a conventional internal combustion vehicle with gearboxes and complicated engines. 478 00:54:30,730 --> 00:54:35,380 You know, the electric car is much, much simpler, much fewer things to go wrong. 479 00:54:35,380 --> 00:54:41,480 Fewer things to change. So it changes the whole dynamic of ownership, potentially. 480 00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:50,440 But fascinating, fascinating area. And I I suppose at the end of the day, one can't help but believe this will be like the mobile phone technology. 481 00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:58,760 All of a sudden there will be a tipping point at which this will just become will become the norm. 482 00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:06,440 John, we're almost out of time. But I wanted to end before we finish. 483 00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:11,720 Ask you about the National Infrastructure Commission itself. 484 00:55:11,720 --> 00:55:19,520 I know you were instrumental in making the case for the NASA to come into existence. 485 00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:23,640 It's been around for about five years now. 486 00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:36,040 You've had a first national infrastructure assessment, a belated government national infrastructure strategy. 487 00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:42,920 You argued for it with a view to taking a longer term perspective. 488 00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:49,820 depoliticising as far as is possible infrastructure decision making. 489 00:55:49,820 --> 00:55:57,910 To what extent do you think the National Infrastructure Commission has is achieve those goals you originally had? 490 00:55:57,910 --> 00:56:03,230 And what more really needs to be done? 491 00:56:03,230 --> 00:56:15,350 Yeah, I think again, at this conversation this morning where I said that I thought what was interesting about the politicalization, 492 00:56:15,350 --> 00:56:18,370 because the model that we have is not the model I suggested. 493 00:56:18,370 --> 00:56:23,540 And the model I suggested actually was one where there was more cross-party debate within parliament 494 00:56:23,540 --> 00:56:31,570 leading to national policy statements and then therefore getting that greater sort of cross-party cohesion. 495 00:56:31,570 --> 00:56:36,740 The model we have doesn't do that. I mean, the decisions are made by the government of the day. 496 00:56:36,740 --> 00:56:41,420 Having said that, whenever I talk to opposition spokesman in infrastructure, 497 00:56:41,420 --> 00:56:48,030 there really isn't that much argument about that, about the sense of direction as it is more about money. 498 00:56:48,030 --> 00:56:51,920 Maybe the money made available. To what extent does government get involved? 499 00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:55,820 But but in terms of what we should be doing, there isn't a great debate. 500 00:56:55,820 --> 00:57:04,130 And I think that's partly because another debate has overtaken the other debate, which has overtaken, of course, is the zero carbon debate. 501 00:57:04,130 --> 00:57:10,050 So I think what we've now got is where there is cross-party support and cross-party recognition. 502 00:57:10,050 --> 00:57:21,530 Public support is that at the end of the day. Zero carbon climate change has created a level of agreement which is enabling 503 00:57:21,530 --> 00:57:27,850 the infrastructure to then become the enabler itself of achieving that goal, 504 00:57:27,850 --> 00:57:34,070 of achieving that zero carbon. So then it's back to what are the technologies and what are the choices of 505 00:57:34,070 --> 00:57:38,960 technologies and how do we actually get ourselves into that zero carbon space, 506 00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:44,360 which I think has enabled some of the some of which have been potentially 507 00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:49,490 arguments in the past to come away from the infrastructure debates themselves. 508 00:57:49,490 --> 00:57:54,680 I think the bigger infrastructure debate will continue to be around resilience. 509 00:57:54,680 --> 00:58:05,540 And how do you actually ensure that you get that investment for the future, which lays a cost on today's taxpayer or today's consumer? 510 00:58:05,540 --> 00:58:11,240 And so that whole regulatory debate. And how do we know? 511 00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:11,840 To my mind, 512 00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:20,750 it does require an even greater opening up of the debate and the discussion with the public and a more honest debate with the public about, 513 00:58:20,750 --> 00:58:27,920 well, are we going to sort of try to get along simply by focussing on the lowest charge for the next three years? 514 00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:36,440 Or are we willing to talk about what the cost of some of these choices are for the next 30 years, not just the next three years? 515 00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:42,590 But I think we're in a reasonably feel we've got off to a reasonable start. 516 00:58:42,590 --> 00:58:50,000 And I think the concept of the National Infrastructure Commission seems to be reasonably well accepted and established. 517 00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:58,850 Might be my famous last words. But but overall, I think government and politicians recognise that there is some benefit, 518 00:58:58,850 --> 00:59:06,440 particularly in having somebody else other than themselves who is prepared to ask or put forward 519 00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:11,330 some sort of challenging solutions which they don't necessarily want to put forward themselves. 520 00:59:11,330 --> 00:59:16,280 But, you know, the role of theodicy, in effect, is to be the the dark lady in the room, 521 00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:21,410 if you like, who ask the question that nobody else wants to ask or opposes the solution. 522 00:59:21,410 --> 00:59:25,070 Other people don't really want to grapple with that in mind, the consequences. 523 00:59:25,070 --> 00:59:35,130 And I think there's a role for us in being that sort of spur for for new ideas and for pushing for new solutions. 524 00:59:35,130 --> 00:59:42,780 Well, John, thank you so much for coming to talk in the Oxford Martin School this evening. 525 00:59:42,780 --> 00:59:47,310 It's been a incredibly wide ranging conversation which has taken us from some of 526 00:59:47,310 --> 00:59:52,190 the biggest challenges which we face as a as a society and indeed of the planet. 527 00:59:52,190 --> 00:59:57,120 I'm down to some really pretty techie local details. 528 00:59:57,120 --> 01:00:02,210 So very impressive. Thank you very much indeed for that. 529 01:00:02,210 --> 01:00:10,680 And just one final reminder to our audience that the next talk in our series is Professor Sady Crease. 530 01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:16,230 [INAUDIBLE] be talking about emerging technologies and systemic risks. 531 01:00:16,230 --> 01:00:23,520 So I hope that you'll be able to join us for that. And thank you again to Sir John, to our audience. 532 01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:28,068 And I wish you all a very good evening. Thank you very much. Thank you to the audience.