1 00:00:01,900 --> 00:00:08,080 Welcome, everyone. It is my great pleasure to start this event. 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:16,390 This is the book launch for us, as you know, for Stefan Durkin's gambling on development, why some countries win and others lose. 3 00:00:16,390 --> 00:00:23,800 Stefan is professor of economic policy at the Blavatnik School of Government and at the Department of Economics. 4 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:33,370 He's also the director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies and the co-director of the Oxford Martin Programme on African Governance, 5 00:00:33,370 --> 00:00:39,530 which is the the entity hosting hosting the event today. 6 00:00:39,530 --> 00:00:47,170 And let me start by thanking the Martin School and Clara Boyer in particular for all the support 7 00:00:47,170 --> 00:00:53,890 in putting together the event and generally speaking and supporting our programme here. 8 00:00:53,890 --> 00:01:03,880 Stefan, as you know, is not just an academic, is also someone who has a very long trajectory in policy advice. 9 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:14,560 Most recently as development policy advisor to successive foreign secretaries in the UK, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. 10 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:25,300 But before that, Stefan has literally decades of field experience across both Africa and Asia and most parts of the world, in fact. 11 00:01:25,300 --> 00:01:31,630 And so his his book, which I have to say is written with a degree of honesty, 12 00:01:31,630 --> 00:01:40,870 a candid sort of demeanour which is rarely the case in policy and policy advice. 13 00:01:40,870 --> 00:01:48,070 And therefore, having just finished reading reading the book, I very heartily recommend it's read. 14 00:01:48,070 --> 00:01:59,140 It has amazingly insightful experiences shared out of his long engagement with the field, but it's also not holding back. 15 00:01:59,140 --> 00:02:06,550 It's not the sort of treatment of these issues that we sometimes see as characterised by understatement. 16 00:02:06,550 --> 00:02:13,600 Is Stefan is definitely not pussyfooting around some of the hottest and most 17 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:21,070 controversial topics that we've seen in this field to discuss Stefan's book. 18 00:02:21,070 --> 00:02:24,340 We have two distinguished guests. 19 00:02:24,340 --> 00:02:32,980 It's my great pleasure to introduce Melinda Bohannan, who's strategy director at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. 20 00:02:32,980 --> 00:02:39,850 Melinda was previously strategy director at the Department for International Development. 21 00:02:39,850 --> 00:02:46,570 She's been with the civil service for more than 20 years and has had again a vast amount 22 00:02:46,570 --> 00:02:54,460 of experience in the field that in a way mirrors Stefan's long and diverse engagements. 23 00:02:54,460 --> 00:02:59,050 Melinda's voyage from the Middle East and North Africa to sub-Saharan Africa, 24 00:02:59,050 --> 00:03:06,190 the former Soviet Union and China, so it will be a great pleasure to hear from Melinda. 25 00:03:06,190 --> 00:03:13,150 And finally, we have David Pilling, who is the Africa editor of the Financial Times. 26 00:03:13,150 --> 00:03:26,020 David was previously Asia editor and also Tokyo bureau chief of the Financial Times, and he has been with the FTA since 1990. 27 00:03:26,020 --> 00:03:32,800 And amongst many other achievements, he's written Outstanding Book on Japan, which I very much enjoyed. 28 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:42,850 And without further ado, I'd like to call on Stefan to come and present his book, and then we will have Melinda and David in succession. 29 00:03:42,850 --> 00:03:48,730 And finally will open the floor to questions from the audience. 30 00:03:48,730 --> 00:03:55,720 Let me just say that in addition to those in the audience here today, we also have an online audience, so we will take turns. 31 00:03:55,720 --> 00:04:00,790 We will deal with the questions and comments that will come from from this room. 32 00:04:00,790 --> 00:04:17,700 But Clara Boyer will also bring in contributions from our, I imagine, sizeable online audience. 33 00:04:17,700 --> 00:04:25,710 So well. Well, thank you very much, Sir Ricardo, for this very nice welcome. 34 00:04:25,710 --> 00:04:31,620 I have this feeling that maybe I should have had a few more people read the book beforehand because 35 00:04:31,620 --> 00:04:39,810 I get this gentle sense that I'll get a bit in trouble here and there with with the book anyway. 36 00:04:39,810 --> 00:04:50,460 One thing that the publisher let me sign is that he has no liability for anything if there is any libel trials, but I don't think I went that far. 37 00:04:50,460 --> 00:04:57,840 But you know, of course, I would like you later on to read the book, and I think black holes will be here later on over a drink. 38 00:04:57,840 --> 00:04:59,340 You can, you can get it. 39 00:04:59,340 --> 00:05:10,650 But I thought it would be a good idea to try to tell you a little bit about the book and get a bit of the the story line of it. 40 00:05:10,650 --> 00:05:15,330 So, you know, Ricardo was introducing, it's already, you know, 41 00:05:15,330 --> 00:05:21,960 I've been for 30 years actually hanging around in Oxford, doing research, going all kinds of places. 42 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:26,490 And you know, I work in the countryside, largely in developing countries. 43 00:05:26,490 --> 00:05:35,400 I also work on, you know, big problems of development, industrialisation and in Ethiopia, all kinds of things that I was involved in. 44 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:39,660 And I do what academics do is talk a lot, you know, and go and give talks and so on. 45 00:05:39,660 --> 00:05:46,980 But the luck that I had was about 10 years ago, I managed to get much more involved in the publishing world. 46 00:05:46,980 --> 00:05:57,510 I was really lucky to. In many ways, I was a total unknown quantity for them, but different, you know, Ohio, the Belgian as their chief economist. 47 00:05:57,510 --> 00:06:02,460 And you know, I and I thoroughly enjoyed this and I must say, you know, 48 00:06:02,460 --> 00:06:09,990 lots of what you see here is also the result of just endless interactions with people in that organisation. 49 00:06:09,990 --> 00:06:13,020 And basically, you know, we as academics, we have a certain knowledge. 50 00:06:13,020 --> 00:06:18,750 But you know, what do you do with it in a political environment is actually quite a different, different matter. 51 00:06:18,750 --> 00:06:22,830 And then of course, you do what you then can do as a senior official in your organisation. 52 00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:25,320 You can travel around, meet all kinds of people. 53 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:35,280 And I must say I've been lucky to to meet with extraordinary people such as the governor of the central Bank of Uganda recently passed away. 54 00:06:35,280 --> 00:06:39,930 An amazing figure, quite amazing figures in other countries as well. 55 00:06:39,930 --> 00:06:43,890 Like in Nigeria, he had the vice president. So now you talk to them and you listen to them. 56 00:06:43,890 --> 00:06:50,520 What they tell you and a lot of the book also tries to do is to reflect a bit, you know, what are they trying to do actually? 57 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:55,940 Well, what is it that in many of these countries, we're actually doing now? 58 00:06:55,940 --> 00:07:01,430 Behind it, we should just be have actually quite an amazing story in this period that I've 59 00:07:01,430 --> 00:07:06,710 been in the policy world and there's absolutely no there's only pure correlation. 60 00:07:06,710 --> 00:07:11,070 But but you know, you know, we have an amazing thing. 61 00:07:11,070 --> 00:07:18,410 This is from our world in data. If you have any data, just look at them. But basically, this is the total population, extreme poverty in the world. 62 00:07:18,410 --> 00:07:22,620 You know, this is the definition, whereas carefully as we can and as wealth and data. 63 00:07:22,620 --> 00:07:29,660 And in fact, it's using World Bank data trying to get us compatible as we can at a very low standard of 64 00:07:29,660 --> 00:07:34,730 living in some kind of what we call purchasing power parity dollars of one point ninety, 65 00:07:34,730 --> 00:07:40,160 but call it a very low level of of of of income or consumption. 66 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:44,180 Try to actually just count how many people are below that kind of line. 67 00:07:44,180 --> 00:07:49,880 And it's all the time trying to be consistent so you allow for price changes and all the kinds of things. 68 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:57,440 So when you look at that, of course, we have an amazing thing around 1990s that, you know, we were not very far off two billion people. 69 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:05,900 That's way below that line. And what, however we calculated was definitely well above a billion and a half, and it was a lot of them was in Asia. 70 00:08:05,900 --> 00:08:14,480 The rents, the population here. There was a quite a lot in South Asia, which is like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and so on. 71 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:20,180 And then there was some in Africa as well, which is smaller in Africa because population wasn't that. 72 00:08:20,180 --> 00:08:28,550 And I want you can see over time and especially somewhere around 2005, this kind of acceleration of poverty reduction in Asia. 73 00:08:28,550 --> 00:08:33,890 Not the same things. I mean East Asia here. That is actually declining dramatically. 74 00:08:33,890 --> 00:08:36,380 South Asia, that gets kind of a positive line. 75 00:08:36,380 --> 00:08:42,590 Maybe it's not as dramatic as it suggested, but it's definitely by the time COVID came was going down dramatically. 76 00:08:42,590 --> 00:08:47,960 And Africa, well, you know, the number of people below the line keeps on going up. 77 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:49,410 Now it's not a percentage. 78 00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:56,880 You know, there is a decline in the percentage of people below the poverty line in African countries, but the picture is very mixed. 79 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:02,810 OK, so but it is a time of quite dramatic progress in some places of the world. 80 00:09:02,810 --> 00:09:11,900 And in a way, this is this. Even within Africa, we have this kind of distinction between different places, what's been going on? 81 00:09:11,900 --> 00:09:17,900 And so sub-Saharan Africa, the kind of the growing the green part of Africa here in that map, 82 00:09:17,900 --> 00:09:23,870 you know, we we we had in 1990 quite a lot of countries with really high, very high poverty. 83 00:09:23,870 --> 00:09:32,070 18 countries have a population of more than 18, sorry of more than eight million, and they have more than a fifth of their population below that line. 84 00:09:32,070 --> 00:09:35,380 OK, so it would have been 50 60 percent. 85 00:09:35,380 --> 00:09:43,690 Actually, since then, there's only two of these countries that actually have seen poverty declining significantly housing and what's gone on Ethiopia, 86 00:09:43,690 --> 00:09:46,420 actually, there's other countries where it doubles. 87 00:09:46,420 --> 00:09:52,180 So we get a whole heterogeneity of the story of some countries with changes happening in other countries. 88 00:09:52,180 --> 00:09:58,300 That's not. And in some places, it's really dramatic the DRC, Nigeria, Madagascar, 89 00:09:58,300 --> 00:10:03,970 these are a lot of people that actually ended up in extreme poverty and where it actually has changed. 90 00:10:03,970 --> 00:10:07,660 And so this is not just in extreme poverty, 91 00:10:07,660 --> 00:10:14,590 it's also reflected so this that difference between the experience of countries is also something we see simply in the economy. 92 00:10:14,590 --> 00:10:19,270 This is GDP growth where you get, you know, quite a lot of the Asian countries. 93 00:10:19,270 --> 00:10:22,540 So very dramatically, this is China. 94 00:10:22,540 --> 00:10:29,980 Over this year at ninety nine point twenty seventeen, this is GDP per capita in comparable prices and so on and so on. 95 00:10:29,980 --> 00:10:34,150 China doing really well, Indonesia actually doing remarkably well as well. 96 00:10:34,150 --> 00:10:39,670 India beginning to take off as well, Vietnam taking off, Nigeria seemingly doing something, 97 00:10:39,670 --> 00:10:44,590 but having started actually well above, say, India or Vietnam doing a bit. 98 00:10:44,590 --> 00:10:50,530 And there's a lot to do with how you recalculate your GDP, unfortunately, and this is actually just essentially stagnation. 99 00:10:50,530 --> 00:10:56,350 There's not much happening. DRC, the Democratic Republic of Congo, it's actually in income. 100 00:10:56,350 --> 00:11:03,820 In economic terms. It's actually poorer now than it was by 1990. And even then, it was so much poorer than it was in 1970. 101 00:11:03,820 --> 00:11:05,600 And so you actually have a declining thing. 102 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:11,380 Ethiopia, belatedly very poor country to start with the poorest of this list, but actually starting to rise. 103 00:11:11,380 --> 00:11:19,240 And in fact, Ethiopia in this period since 2010 has the fastest growth in GDP per capita actually of the whole world. 104 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:27,160 OK, so you get countries where things are beginning to happen. Bangladesh here, Ghana, Nigeria, not very much Vietnam, India and so on. 105 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:31,030 So you get to heterogeneity and this is actually what I wanted to start saying. 106 00:11:31,030 --> 00:11:39,160 OK. Yes, the world sucks. So we can all be saying it's a lot of terrible things happening and poverty and North-South difference are massive. 107 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:43,570 Or, you could say, is a really great story to tell, as they sometimes like to tell them in New York, 108 00:11:43,570 --> 00:11:46,660 at the U.N. and saying, Look, poverty has been going down dramatically. 109 00:11:46,660 --> 00:11:51,760 Whatever we should celebrate that, you know, we should celebrate it in some place, but not places. 110 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:57,400 It actually is not happening. And that's actually is a bit like what I wanted to kind of talk about in the book. 111 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,690 And that definitely by having the chance not just to work on one country but 112 00:12:01,690 --> 00:12:06,520 having a lot of places I could start comparing and and working in and so on. 113 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,340 And over the last 30 years, probably, you know, 20, 114 00:12:09,340 --> 00:12:15,730 30 countries or more where I've spent actually considerable time written about it, usually internally. 115 00:12:15,730 --> 00:12:21,940 And I should say actually quite a lot to the book initially started its life as internal notes and in different so. 116 00:12:21,940 --> 00:12:22,990 And it's these questions. 117 00:12:22,990 --> 00:12:30,280 You know why countries that seemingly quite similar in the same continent together and some are actually doing really well and others doing it all? 118 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:36,040 Not at all. Not all. Well, that's what we're trying to do now. I'm not the first one, of course, that writes about developments. 119 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:45,730 I don't know. This is could be a good pop quiz. Who do you recognise? Who is the who is the calmest or the most tolerant person in this picture? 120 00:12:45,730 --> 00:12:53,830 I'm so on. And so you could have talk a lot about a lot of things, but actually, maybe we don't usually do quizzes with people. 121 00:12:53,830 --> 00:12:57,400 We do Christmas, maybe with books. Now this is the kind of standard fair. 122 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,270 It's actually the fair that I used to set in to develop a of scores here at Oxford. 123 00:13:01,270 --> 00:13:07,930 Why don't you read these books? That gives you a sense, a diverse sense of what is development or what they think about, and this is not a perfect. 124 00:13:07,930 --> 00:13:13,180 These are the bestsellers that's probably for better books. And in fact, I will mention a few during the talk. 125 00:13:13,180 --> 00:13:16,390 But is the kind of things the dominant view that you have? 126 00:13:16,390 --> 00:13:28,680 And in fact, I have a chapter, let's say, not always gently discussing each of these books, but the diagnosis that comes out of it. 127 00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:33,350 Is. Well, a lot of what they write about is to say, well, 128 00:13:33,350 --> 00:13:38,420 this is what you should do and then you develop and this is what you don't do and then you develop, 129 00:13:38,420 --> 00:13:43,130 you know, we're very good at telling them, do this, don't do that. But we actually. 130 00:13:43,130 --> 00:13:46,890 And within it, we get a lot of competing diagnosis. 131 00:13:46,890 --> 00:13:56,290 You could probably have two broad groups. In diagnosis, one would say this is the Acemoglu Robinson, why nations fail, but a lot of others as well, 132 00:13:56,290 --> 00:14:02,080 they just get your institutions right and where whether institutions come from, they come from history. 133 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:06,850 So why don't you get your histories right? OK, that's all you need to do, and you'll develop. 134 00:14:06,850 --> 00:14:12,240 So but actually, it's not as easy as this. 135 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:21,650 You know. When we start looking at these countries that progressed, Bangladesh actually has terrible institutions in our normal rankings. 136 00:14:21,650 --> 00:14:26,570 We can look at China in all these rankings. Where do we go on any kind of thing? 137 00:14:26,570 --> 00:14:32,030 It looks really bad in its institutions. In fact, in 79, in any case. 138 00:14:32,030 --> 00:14:41,240 China came out of real conflict. The Cultural Revolution, the gang of four year old Mao's death and the gang of four. 139 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:47,330 It was like, you know, you really started wondering whether they would survive and where it would turn into a massive civil war. 140 00:14:47,330 --> 00:14:55,670 This is not a country with strong institutions, but we all date. 1979 The reform of the Chongqing Natural Things suddenly is all good. 141 00:14:55,670 --> 00:15:00,710 So we should be very careful. Simply saying it's all institutions. 142 00:15:00,710 --> 00:15:07,760 It's all history. Because why the seventy 1979 and nine, why not nineteen, forty seven and so on? 143 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:12,170 So you actually listings that and success cases. 144 00:15:12,170 --> 00:15:15,950 They didn't wait for it. Yang Yang and has a really good book on China. 145 00:15:15,950 --> 00:15:19,280 I use, you know, how China escaped the poverty trap. 146 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:27,550 And one of the big things is is that they had lousy institutions when they started and they did so well and arguably would say, 147 00:15:27,550 --> 00:15:31,610 at least if we seen it saved from Washington institutions World Bank or IMF. 148 00:15:31,610 --> 00:15:36,810 They still have lousy institutions very far, and they got very far in these things. 149 00:15:36,810 --> 00:15:44,400 OK, now there's another line of thought in these books as well that you usually would say, Oh, but this is the list of things you should be doing. 150 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:50,450 These are the policy should be doing. These are the things you just do getting your policy struck. 151 00:15:50,450 --> 00:15:54,860 Now that list, once you start looking at the more detail, 152 00:15:54,860 --> 00:16:01,520 when you start comparatively saying what's on that list, we're actually relatively trivial things. 153 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:08,300 You don't get a good investment climate, get your get your infrastructure somewhat under control, do education do on health. 154 00:16:08,300 --> 00:16:13,550 And of course, that list gets full. And in fact, about 10 years ago, there was a bit longer than 50 years ago. 155 00:16:13,550 --> 00:16:20,090 Now there was a review by something called the Growth Commission. A Nobel prise winner, Michael Spence was put in charge. 156 00:16:20,090 --> 00:16:24,320 And the one line I always remember from it, and in fact, I don't often remember it for the book. 157 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:30,590 I looked it up again, but I didn't remember much else. It was basically saying there is no recipe for success in development. 158 00:16:30,590 --> 00:16:36,770 We know some of the ingredients, but actually the quite trivial, the quite self-evident what you should be doing. 159 00:16:36,770 --> 00:16:41,020 So why is it that some countries do these things in other countries don't? 160 00:16:41,020 --> 00:16:46,210 And that actually suggesting is that while there is actually some choice, there is some agency, 161 00:16:46,210 --> 00:16:52,900 there's something to doing in these countries that some countries actually start doing it in other countries, not now. 162 00:16:52,900 --> 00:16:59,380 History weighs on you and makes it hard, and I'm not trying to trivialise colonial history or that. 163 00:16:59,380 --> 00:17:06,830 But within colonial history, some do quite well in, some don't. And that's actually what I wanted to start explaining, you know? 164 00:17:06,830 --> 00:17:11,870 So why don't they, why don't they actually start doing it? 165 00:17:11,870 --> 00:17:19,470 And for me, it was brought out best with. Within the space of six months. 166 00:17:19,470 --> 00:17:25,470 I was actually in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, for David, and I was in Ethiopia. 167 00:17:25,470 --> 00:17:28,570 I'm actually quite similar events interacting in Kinshasa. 168 00:17:28,570 --> 00:17:34,620 I was invited because they wanted me as a kind of a good economist, the chief economist at the time. 169 00:17:34,620 --> 00:17:39,540 They wanted to tell me about all the development plans that we're going to do. And this was the Prime Minister's Office. 170 00:17:39,540 --> 00:17:43,770 And so I walk into the Prime Minister's Office and I kind of show you the suits for billions. 171 00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:51,030 I mean, it was amazing sets of suits around. And there were really, actually really eloquently, 172 00:17:51,030 --> 00:17:56,730 but this young people largely eloquently explaining what the development plan was going to look like. 173 00:17:56,730 --> 00:18:02,280 What are we going to do? One after the other saying there was a perfect plan, Frank Culture World Bank would have been proud of it, 174 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:07,290 but it was, you know, they were doing it, saying sorry, they were telling us this what they were going to do. 175 00:18:07,290 --> 00:18:13,990 And the education made a lot of sense the health plans and say, Look, and I remember thinking, Wow, this is actually, you know, you know, 176 00:18:13,990 --> 00:18:19,860 I've had some markets, you know, if I in the next day or so and what I should be doing for good development were all the locks. 177 00:18:19,860 --> 00:18:24,540 And I remember walking out of this room and thinking, Yeah, and nothing will come out of it. 178 00:18:24,540 --> 00:18:31,380 I've been I've seen a performance. I've seen theatre. Now, that's what I think in the DRC. 179 00:18:31,380 --> 00:18:34,890 Meanwhile, six months later, with less than four months later, 180 00:18:34,890 --> 00:18:41,130 I was in Ethiopia and it was explained to me as a small retreats with some quite high level prime 181 00:18:41,130 --> 00:18:47,160 ministerial advisers and some people land rank of minister the things they were going to do in Ethiopia. 182 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:54,250 We're talking about 2012 2013. And actually, I just think, you know, the economics is not really quite sound. 183 00:18:54,250 --> 00:19:01,510 And the rules say. I remember walking out of it, these plans, they were bit tricky and I was really worried about some things, 184 00:19:01,510 --> 00:19:05,770 and this probably go wrong when this goes wrong with the macro economics and so on. 185 00:19:05,770 --> 00:19:09,220 I remember walking out, Wow, this will work. 186 00:19:09,220 --> 00:19:16,510 This actually probably will be delivered, and it's just this basic confidence that after a bit, you get in the DRC. 187 00:19:16,510 --> 00:19:18,940 This was all show and Ethiopia. 188 00:19:18,940 --> 00:19:25,720 This was going to be the difference and and in a way, what the book is about is actually trying to articulate what is it that? 189 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:31,960 What is it that at some point Ethiopia ends up delivering the fastest growth in the world and very fast poverty reduction? 190 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:36,100 Yes. OK. Until until 2020 with the conflict. 191 00:19:36,100 --> 00:19:41,800 But where the DRC actually was probably going nowhere at the moment, at least, 192 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:46,360 maybe with the new government, Prime Minister Tshisekedi maybe is a bit of hope. 193 00:19:46,360 --> 00:19:54,140 You know, we'll have to see now to try to start thinking about. 194 00:19:54,140 --> 00:19:59,810 One book that gave me quite a lot of inspiration was actually Douglas North with Wallace and Wineglass, 195 00:19:59,810 --> 00:20:01,520 and not necessarily for all the detail in the book. 196 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:10,270 He's an economic historian, Nobel prise winner, but actually a very simple thing that I knew and had not and not quite remember. 197 00:20:10,270 --> 00:20:18,960 But you know, basically how as an economic historian, as an economist, economic and economic historian, he thinks about the state. 198 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:30,390 And so he sees the state as essentially a creation to solve the underlying problem that you have lots of gangs that are roving over the 199 00:20:30,390 --> 00:20:40,230 landscape and trying to plunder and soil and say with actually saying rather than having little militias and gangs doing it to actually saying, 200 00:20:40,230 --> 00:20:47,820 look, states emerge when actually different gangs or militias decide, well, actually, it's probably better to have peace and stability here, 201 00:20:47,820 --> 00:20:53,370 and we'll probably make more money and controlling the resources than actually just trying to steal from each other. 202 00:20:53,370 --> 00:21:00,840 OK, so the whole idea of it's something to do with elite groups that somehow make a deal around not to have violence, 203 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:08,520 but actually having more states that actually has security. 204 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,930 And then actually, let's use the resources that we have. 205 00:21:10,930 --> 00:21:18,390 So in my book, I simplified and I know there will be economic historians worries about how I try to communicate this, 206 00:21:18,390 --> 00:21:22,470 but is the way I like to actually think about many states. 207 00:21:22,470 --> 00:21:30,190 I think of the state essentially as only parking as a deal between those who have power or influence in a society. 208 00:21:30,190 --> 00:21:38,170 And whereby the elite are those who have power and influence, you know, this is the people, 209 00:21:38,170 --> 00:21:45,700 it's not necessarily a large group, but it can be it can be quite open or it can be quite closed. 210 00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:47,470 It can be whatever it is. 211 00:21:47,470 --> 00:21:54,880 But I like to think of any state a bit like this as somehow an elite power gain of those who actually can make things happen. 212 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,410 And it goes in some places it's more accessible, more open. 213 00:21:59,410 --> 00:22:01,780 In some places it may be more closed. 214 00:22:01,780 --> 00:22:10,610 But it's the idea that there is somehow a state on the rise, some kind of deal, and the lying elite bargain is, to me, quite quite tempting. 215 00:22:10,610 --> 00:22:20,240 And at a minimum, it's a coalition for peace and stability, just in the sense that across north have it actually as a way of of managing violence. 216 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:24,710 Now if you start looking at it, it typically would have a political deal. 217 00:22:24,710 --> 00:22:29,450 Who controls the state, you know, is the few people. There's a lot of people. 218 00:22:29,450 --> 00:22:33,320 Is it is it by election? Is it open elections, fair elections? 219 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:39,200 It's quite close to whatever it is, but it is a deal amongst the elite. How are we going to run the state politically? 220 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,580 And on the other hand, on the economic side, an economic deal, you know, 221 00:22:43,580 --> 00:22:49,760 who actually is allowed to use resources and who gets what from the benefits from it? 222 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:55,640 Well, I have just a few big landowners that basically don't have tenants, and yet you have to pay. 223 00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:01,220 You'll get maybe a little bit of the money or maybe groups of people who can't own property 224 00:23:01,220 --> 00:23:06,140 or you have a lot of inheritance that basically you can never really stop and so on. 225 00:23:06,140 --> 00:23:12,980 That's basically all societies and I think ours as well. It is the way in economic and political deal about who has access to the state 226 00:23:12,980 --> 00:23:17,030 and who controls it and who has access to the resources and distribution. 227 00:23:17,030 --> 00:23:23,560 And I use the simple framework to think a little bit different types of states can exist. 228 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:29,620 And the different types of states that can exist, you know, they can be very open. 229 00:23:29,620 --> 00:23:35,350 They can be quite open. They can be a bit close. They can be cleared to list, as we say, 230 00:23:35,350 --> 00:23:43,540 which basically would mean that most of what the states does is trying to give benefits for those who keep them in power. 231 00:23:43,540 --> 00:23:52,240 You can be, you know, patrimonial as ever talked about a small bit chief basically being in charge and determining everything. 232 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,870 It can be quite open by close to can be ethnically controlled. 233 00:23:55,870 --> 00:24:01,690 It can be, you know, whatever the deal is, it can be happening and we could have different ways of getting different states. 234 00:24:01,690 --> 00:24:07,060 It can also be a kleptocratic state where the state is basically organised just to steal from the people. 235 00:24:07,060 --> 00:24:08,860 And and doing that, 236 00:24:08,860 --> 00:24:19,480 you can have plea bargains where let's say some oligarchs seem to be well connected to those in charge of the of the state and its military, 237 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:24,460 and creates a narrative around that that everything is fine and so on. 238 00:24:24,460 --> 00:24:25,800 In fact. 239 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:32,670 Using Russia these days as an example of an elite bargain of a particular type probably helps to think about how you can think of a lot of states, 240 00:24:32,670 --> 00:24:38,610 but again, think of ours as well in that sense. So how you don't get growth and development? 241 00:24:38,610 --> 00:24:42,900 Well, it's actually an elite parking where it matters. 242 00:24:42,900 --> 00:24:48,870 We're actually fundamentally and I call this a development parking where one of the underlying 243 00:24:48,870 --> 00:24:53,880 features elite parking is that actually they're trying to get growth and development. 244 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,820 They're actually trying to get progress in the economy. 245 00:24:56,820 --> 00:25:04,020 They use the resources not to distribute to their friends, but actually trying to make them work to actually make make the country richer. 246 00:25:04,020 --> 00:25:06,690 And they use it also in some developmental thing. 247 00:25:06,690 --> 00:25:15,630 This is not about perfect equality or whatever, but something is happening that we recognise as economic growth and progress in development outcomes, 248 00:25:15,630 --> 00:25:22,260 lower poverty, health, education for a broad part of the population and so on. 249 00:25:22,260 --> 00:25:23,790 And so what are the characteristics? 250 00:25:23,790 --> 00:25:31,950 Well, you can't forget about the peace and stability, but it's the fundamental thing of leapfrogging because otherwise the state will disappear. 251 00:25:31,950 --> 00:25:40,930 And in fact, I've learnt to be quite sympathetic to the speechwriters of Chinese ministers when they go around the world because they've got used to. 252 00:25:40,930 --> 00:25:44,940 And of course, they've been told to always has the first paragraph to talk about it. 253 00:25:44,940 --> 00:25:52,870 The most important thing is peace and stability. And I remember listening to that and thinking, you're probably right. 254 00:25:52,870 --> 00:26:01,850 Actually, it's a crucial feature of a successful society that actually we sought out that there is a certain degree of peace and stability, 255 00:26:01,850 --> 00:26:07,160 but it is more than if you want to be a state that has a developed embarking. 256 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:17,630 You want to make sure that you have Southwest states that basically is in the service of growth and development and not just tries to have big ideas. 257 00:26:17,630 --> 00:26:24,170 That development should be state run or something, but actually self-aware of what it can to encounter. 258 00:26:24,170 --> 00:26:30,750 And if you look across countries, some states are pretty capable and other ones are pretty lousy. 259 00:26:30,750 --> 00:26:38,420 OK. China 2000 Here's a centralised taxation and centralised bureaucracy. 260 00:26:38,420 --> 00:26:44,130 Not surprising that I can make centralised planning work reasonably well. 261 00:26:44,130 --> 00:26:50,310 But not surprising that Bangladesh probably shouldn't try. 262 00:26:50,310 --> 00:26:57,180 It has actually a very weak state and it's a young state, and it doesn't quite have this kind of capability to do that. 263 00:26:57,180 --> 00:27:02,910 So you get in Bangladesh, progress is being made actually despite the states, 264 00:27:02,910 --> 00:27:10,170 but it's a self-aware state in the South in that sense that it's allowed, you know, private sector NGOs. 265 00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:18,370 In fact, eight play a big part in its development. And so he could actually do that, so you get different ways of getting to that. 266 00:27:18,370 --> 00:27:24,770 But then the final bit should never forget. It's not about ideology and then just staying the course. 267 00:27:24,770 --> 00:27:32,130 You know. We don't know the recipe of growth and development in general, let alone in any specific context. 268 00:27:32,130 --> 00:27:36,420 We know the ingredients, you better try it out, try the recipe out. 269 00:27:36,420 --> 00:27:41,430 And this important thing is to be willing to actually have some form of error correction, 270 00:27:41,430 --> 00:27:46,350 bureaucratic, politically, some learning process of accountability and so on. 271 00:27:46,350 --> 00:27:50,360 So keep in mind, I'm not asking for perfection. 272 00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:55,080 This is not why nations fail. If you don't have perfect institutions, you do. 273 00:27:55,080 --> 00:28:00,430 I know they don't quite say that, but sometimes the impression is created. You don't have perfection. 274 00:28:00,430 --> 00:28:06,720 You know, there may be corruption, it may be possible the way to keep peace and stability your society, that actually to settle things up. 275 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:13,580 Now I'm not saying this is great. But actually, maybe it's part of that trajectory where you go through. 276 00:28:13,580 --> 00:28:18,740 Of course, you don't want to approve of it and you want to find ways of dealing with that. 277 00:28:18,740 --> 00:28:23,630 But it's not about expecting this perfection straightaway. It's definitely not all. 278 00:28:23,630 --> 00:28:29,480 We have to have a marketing economy or statement economy. If you look at these relative successes, they're quite diverse. 279 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:35,510 In fact, the main thing is that actually you're being smart in terms of to what extent you use the 280 00:28:35,510 --> 00:28:41,000 state and those who don't always overreach in terms of what their own state capability is. 281 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:48,110 It's quite healthy. So don't go around Africa saying in every country the state should lead the economy because I'm sorry. 282 00:28:48,110 --> 00:28:53,360 States are not very strong. They have a very they can have a very clear and list nature. 283 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:57,150 They can have a very much where jobs are given to keep people in power. 284 00:28:57,150 --> 00:29:02,180 Now that's not necessarily an effective state. Don't expect them to run the whole thing. 285 00:29:02,180 --> 00:29:10,730 And finally, it's not about just elections or something. Malawi has had elections for a long time, and I'm sorry, not much is happening in Malawi. 286 00:29:10,730 --> 00:29:14,990 This is not an elite ball game for for development. 287 00:29:14,990 --> 00:29:23,180 This is not a live ball game for growth. So going through the motions of democracy is not necessary against autocracy, you know? 288 00:29:23,180 --> 00:29:25,570 I'm not saying, Oh, we must have a strong leader. 289 00:29:25,570 --> 00:29:31,490 So, you know, you have plenty of these countries on that list who don't have that and actually do quite well. 290 00:29:31,490 --> 00:29:37,200 So it's not quite a choice that we can come back to in discussions. But the important thing here, it's a gamble. 291 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,760 When you start doing it, you don't know how it will end. And actually, it is actually quite tricky, 292 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:50,600 and that's quite helpful to briefly tell the Ethiopian story for a few more minutes and then to get towards the end, which is. 293 00:29:50,600 --> 00:30:00,200 You know, the DRC, you know, plea bargain is clearly what it used to be totally kleptocratic under Mobutu the Kabila. 294 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:04,460 I'm not quite sure what it is, but it definitely is not developmental. 295 00:30:04,460 --> 00:30:12,950 It is very much still recurring features of big natural resource contracts who are captured by small cabal linked to the family. 296 00:30:12,950 --> 00:30:17,720 And you get all these kind of things. These resources are not ploughed back into the economy. 297 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:23,500 They cannot keep peace and stability. You can't trust the Congolese army in eastern Congo at the moment. 298 00:30:23,500 --> 00:30:27,500 They are part of the problem there, not a solution and so on. 299 00:30:27,500 --> 00:30:29,510 So you have all these things there in terms. 300 00:30:29,510 --> 00:30:38,270 It's not even the preconditions for peace and stability, a state that is purely jobs for the friends or, you know, for the ghosts, actually. 301 00:30:38,270 --> 00:30:40,610 Lots of people, lots of jobs that don't really exist, 302 00:30:40,610 --> 00:30:47,370 but just a rent seeking system of payment and definitely very little correction or learning going on. 303 00:30:47,370 --> 00:30:53,180 Ethiopia in this period say between twenty five and twenty twenty. 304 00:30:53,180 --> 00:31:00,920 It was very much really totally looking for legitimacy of the regime through development, through growth and development. 305 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:08,420 It was very much seeking legitimacy to actually getting that it actually had a reasonably capable state. 306 00:31:08,420 --> 00:31:13,820 Maybe it was over stretching it, but it was definitely trying to really learn from its errors. 307 00:31:13,820 --> 00:31:18,500 And you have a lot of small tinkering going on and learning from it. 308 00:31:18,500 --> 00:31:20,000 Of course, it was a gamble, 309 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:29,020 and the simple interpretation would be that if an elite bargain for development has to involve a political deal and an economic deal, 310 00:31:29,020 --> 00:31:33,830 it may be focussed too much on that economic deal, on that progress. And they just somehow couldn't. 311 00:31:33,830 --> 00:31:42,620 That underlying political deal consultants and actually proved very fragile and it imploded basically the different groups that were represented. 312 00:31:42,620 --> 00:31:46,940 People sometimes forget these were all brothers in arms, the ones that are fighting now. 313 00:31:46,940 --> 00:31:50,990 They were all together in the coalition at first. 314 00:31:50,990 --> 00:31:56,330 And so, yeah, and that's the risk we have. 315 00:31:56,330 --> 00:32:00,110 So in the book, I talk about lots of countries, the stories of all these different countries. 316 00:32:00,110 --> 00:32:06,050 This is where I put them. I'm not going to put my hand in fire for exactness here, but this is what we do. 317 00:32:06,050 --> 00:32:13,820 And I'll finally, what can we don't do as outsiders is what we want like to hear, you know, can we do something about it, though? 318 00:32:13,820 --> 00:32:16,310 Throughout the book, I use the word outsiders, you know, 319 00:32:16,310 --> 00:32:22,490 and this is very helpful for someone like me who sits in the inside of Whitehall for a long time. 320 00:32:22,490 --> 00:32:26,480 We tend to forget we are outsiders in the development community. 321 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:31,250 We love to tell them what to do, whether in Washington or in London and so on. 322 00:32:31,250 --> 00:32:37,070 We should just be conscious that a lot of these things countries need to find a way amongst their own, 323 00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,270 the people of power and influence of how to actually change things. 324 00:32:41,270 --> 00:32:43,910 Now you can still don't think maybe we can do certain things. 325 00:32:43,910 --> 00:32:52,720 And of course, you could say, well, we couldn't get them to ride the big shared commitments to big contract on development. 326 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:59,590 I used to start looking at little bits. This kind of this is actually the picture of the Millennium Declaration in 2000. 327 00:32:59,590 --> 00:33:01,780 You just look at who's in the picture. 328 00:33:01,780 --> 00:33:10,270 I mean, Vlad is there, but there's more people there as well who all were going to make a world of peace and prosperity and development. 329 00:33:10,270 --> 00:33:17,560 And this is basically the declaration that is the basis of the Millennium Development Goals that later on became the Sustainable Development Goals. 330 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,110 These are the people that signed it originally. 331 00:33:20,110 --> 00:33:28,540 I can assure you the several people that are now indicted by the International Court, the International Court of Justice, 332 00:33:28,540 --> 00:33:36,080 the criminal courts that are on the sanctions list for good reasons over in the world. 333 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:44,480 That's not the way to go about it, it's nothing credible about as a way to actually do this, nothing wrong with it, but not a credible way. 334 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:48,320 Then the final thing here is like, you know, so what do you then do? 335 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:56,900 Well, if a country doesn't let you leave bargain for development, actually, it is easy because you just support them, you provide finance. 336 00:33:56,900 --> 00:34:02,440 I'm not saying it's always like that, but if you just support them and you just do that. 337 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:08,770 And, you know, and and that's yeah, that's what you can do, it is easy. 338 00:34:08,770 --> 00:34:12,950 And so you you should actually support them. 339 00:34:12,950 --> 00:34:18,760 But what you do with with the countries without developed embarking on, what's the point of AIDS, you can actually ask yourself, 340 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:23,660 you have to be willing to be really critical if within the country they don't 341 00:34:23,660 --> 00:34:28,430 really trying to actually make something sustainable growth development from it, 342 00:34:28,430 --> 00:34:36,110 you have to be really a bit more critical about what you do. And so that's a little bit way I get to, but not entirely this things you can do here. 343 00:34:36,110 --> 00:34:44,190 The book talks more about it. You can do things that actually strengthens doors, those in the leads that actually want to pray fairly so. 344 00:34:44,190 --> 00:34:53,570 Yeah, we of works a lot on on illicit finance. These are good things to fight because actually they sustain a lot of bad political outcomes. 345 00:34:53,570 --> 00:34:57,110 You can also get elite bargains that are supportive of growth, for example, 346 00:34:57,110 --> 00:35:02,450 those who are really trying the hard way to grow their economy rather than from natural resources and export stuff. 347 00:35:02,450 --> 00:35:10,010 Or in any case, you know, just make sure you understand the politics deeply and find ways of AIDS to nudge pockets. 348 00:35:10,010 --> 00:35:15,240 So finally, here. For those looking to exist, you know? 349 00:35:15,240 --> 00:35:18,620 Actually, my book is trying to be a positive story. 350 00:35:18,620 --> 00:35:25,550 The fact that there is so much progress in these countries, it means there's more and more countries where we start getting the lead bargain, 351 00:35:25,550 --> 00:35:31,460 where actually something is happening and we should be willing to support them and do this now. 352 00:35:31,460 --> 00:35:35,210 We should be aware that we shouldn't say everywhere in the world things are going good. 353 00:35:35,210 --> 00:35:37,950 So don't be naive about the politics. 354 00:35:37,950 --> 00:35:44,730 And definitely don't try to say you have the silver bullet there of some magic bean or some technocratic solution. 355 00:35:44,730 --> 00:35:52,430 As academics, as researchers. You know, we will be far more effective if we really try hard. 356 00:35:52,430 --> 00:35:56,900 What what is it and where are we working here? What's going on here? What are we doing? 357 00:35:56,900 --> 00:36:03,740 Is there actually a chance that this is actually sustainable and not thinking, Oh, well, we have nothing to do with politics? 358 00:36:03,740 --> 00:36:11,570 I tell all the economists that I work with you better understand politics this fall because you won't be a good economic adviser. 359 00:36:11,570 --> 00:36:24,460 I'll stop you. Thank you. So I just, you know, I couldn't in. 360 00:36:24,460 --> 00:36:28,720 Thank you, Stephanie. And can you hear me? Yeah. 361 00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:34,600 And I'll pass the words to Melinda for the first set of comments. 362 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:45,470 So is that OK? So my name's Melinda Berhad, and it's really, really nice to be here in front of you and to have the chance to support Stefan, 363 00:36:45,470 --> 00:36:54,140 who has been a colleague for decades and who I've learnt a great deal from and who I must say I marvel 364 00:36:54,140 --> 00:36:59,960 at your patience and your creativity in the way in which you can convey such complex ideas simply. 365 00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:07,310 And I really commend the book. I had a few thoughts on the train up here that I wanted to to put to you all and looking out into the audience. 366 00:37:07,310 --> 00:37:12,780 I imagine many of you are development studies, economists, political researchers in one form or other, 367 00:37:12,780 --> 00:37:18,230 so no doubt have your head deep in theory and counter theory about development and progress. 368 00:37:18,230 --> 00:37:23,720 So in what way is this conversation? In what way is this book helpful to you in that quest? 369 00:37:23,720 --> 00:37:26,810 And the first thing to say about me is So I am, I am. 370 00:37:26,810 --> 00:37:37,550 And I sort of bring the perspective of someone who has, like Stefan, been a practitioner in the field and who advises ministers on policy. 371 00:37:37,550 --> 00:37:41,380 And I'm also a strategist by career. 372 00:37:41,380 --> 00:37:51,560 So that's a skill and I've developed over time. And I'm bringing all of that to bear in this conversation in the context of Stefan's theory. 373 00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:59,890 I find a huge amount of what Stefan says completely compelling in a way that integrates all of those things, which I'll go on to explain. 374 00:37:59,890 --> 00:38:01,880 And I mean, exactly, Stefan says. 375 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:10,280 Over the twenty three five years that I've been working on, international development had a passion for it from very early on in my life. 376 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:14,510 The change and the progress has been really incredibly humbling. 377 00:38:14,510 --> 00:38:20,270 I mean, it was illustrated, I think, up there in the graph to start with the downward trends on extreme poverty. 378 00:38:20,270 --> 00:38:24,830 You know, when I was what was in 1980 was at 45 percent of the world was in extreme poverty. 379 00:38:24,830 --> 00:38:32,090 Even before you get to the early 90s and some of those trends that you can then start to see in that graph unconceivable today for all of you, 380 00:38:32,090 --> 00:38:36,500 I imagine to to experience to live in a world with that level of extreme poverty and 381 00:38:36,500 --> 00:38:42,170 the change that has been wrapped around that in terms of social progress technology, 382 00:38:42,170 --> 00:38:50,450 the shift in the world all different to multipolarity at the end of the Cold War, climate change and global public goods, 383 00:38:50,450 --> 00:38:57,770 and the ways in which we think about the challenges of poverty reduction and development have been really, really, really incredible. 384 00:38:57,770 --> 00:39:07,280 Actually, I mean, China's China's progress on poverty has been huge and a huge story and an incredibly humbling story. 385 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:19,700 Since then, since Millennium Development Goals were agreed. Nevertheless, it is also true that poverty remains in the world and and many, many people, 386 00:39:19,700 --> 00:39:23,720 even if they have escaped extreme poverty, still hover around the poverty line. 387 00:39:23,720 --> 00:39:30,680 Many, many countries hover around the low income middle income poverty line, so this isn't a challenge that's gone away. 388 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:37,430 And I would argue that the moral imperative to do something about it is still as presented as it ever was. 389 00:39:37,430 --> 00:39:41,720 And what's more, it's more than morality, the security, the national security. 390 00:39:41,720 --> 00:39:47,810 How do we want to promote the national interest argument is as compelling. Even more compelling, perhaps than a type of work was. 391 00:39:47,810 --> 00:39:53,600 We live in such a rich world. It is ridiculous that people still live in these conditions. 392 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:59,690 So I would say that development studies as a social science, which you can call it, 393 00:39:59,690 --> 00:40:08,150 that has really has struggled over the years to make sense of all of this, that, you know, the theory and the counter theories. 394 00:40:08,150 --> 00:40:13,430 Stefan showed you a picture of all the books. I'm sure you've read them and you read them, and I'm sure you've read many more besides. 395 00:40:13,430 --> 00:40:18,920 But it is hard to read in between the lines of many of those books and say with certainty that 396 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:24,830 we understand why poverty still exists in the world and why development is such a complex story. 397 00:40:24,830 --> 00:40:27,860 And with that in mind, I just really commend the first part of the book, Stefan, 398 00:40:27,860 --> 00:40:33,890 where you kind of go through these four propositions and then align different, different authors to each of those propositions. 399 00:40:33,890 --> 00:40:41,300 For anyone that's studying for development takes on that is your cheat sheet. You can sort of map your own sort of analysis of who sits where, 400 00:40:41,300 --> 00:40:48,740 but it really is a really good and brave attempt to to categorise who thinks what's now. 401 00:40:48,740 --> 00:40:51,500 The challenge is, of course, and you mentioned it, Stefan, 402 00:40:51,500 --> 00:40:57,440 is that the risk with all of that is that you take one theory over another, and what it gives rise to is fascism. 403 00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:02,210 And this has been really true. I think in development and certainly in my experience, this is going to work. 404 00:41:02,210 --> 00:41:06,050 This can really work actually. Now, if we just change it, that's going to work. 405 00:41:06,050 --> 00:41:14,930 Girls education, golden thread of corruption in democracy and it's so easy to politicise that it's so easy to become one of the sort of the campaign 406 00:41:14,930 --> 00:41:20,960 that jumps jumps on the bandwagon or drink the Kool-Aid or however you want to express it because development is so complex, 407 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:28,190 why not? The human mind just reaches for those easy solutions or those those political light motifs and really runs with them in a very, very emotive. 408 00:41:28,190 --> 00:41:34,550 But I I must caution you all against it, because that simply is not how it works. 409 00:41:34,550 --> 00:41:38,800 I find that development studies and development theory still does. 410 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:47,020 Fail to answer the question, what is it that we should prioritise and why do some countries and some people remain poor? 411 00:41:47,020 --> 00:41:48,040 So what's my conclusion? I mean, 412 00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:57,640 I agree with Stefan very much that what we need is is a dynamic framework that helps us make sense of why some countries succeed and why others don't. 413 00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:01,480 Over time, you can have two countries with more or less the same starting position. 414 00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:05,890 One takes off, the other does not. And the story is even more complex than that. 415 00:42:05,890 --> 00:42:12,190 When you look into in the countries, some populations take off, some populations succeed and others don't. 416 00:42:12,190 --> 00:42:16,930 So rather than having a framework which says, of course, it's all about this, it's all about that, 417 00:42:16,930 --> 00:42:21,820 we need a framework which just helps us to think about and understand the challenge for what it is. 418 00:42:21,820 --> 00:42:27,880 And it is a messy and the complex story. And things go wrong in you and you. 419 00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:34,120 I'm sure with as professionals, as researchers working on development, you will try things that go wrong. 420 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:41,770 You will take risks that don't work out and you will understand how messy and complex the process is and the bad news that it can generate. 421 00:42:41,770 --> 00:42:45,610 So, you know, political economy is not a new concept, right? 422 00:42:45,610 --> 00:42:50,560 I mean, people have been talking about governance and political economy and development terms for a long time. 423 00:42:50,560 --> 00:43:00,550 But the way in which the story is told in this book, I think, does really give us a quite a unique sense of how to bring these things together. 424 00:43:00,550 --> 00:43:06,880 It's not a policy prescription. And I would really caution no one to look for that policy prescription and then stand behind it. 425 00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:10,660 Because, as you put it into practise, as I say, it's far more complicated than that. 426 00:43:10,660 --> 00:43:16,090 It's a way of understanding the world, which sounds sort of quite logical, I suppose, 427 00:43:16,090 --> 00:43:24,430 but it is a way of understanding the sort of set of competing interests and factors that affect a country's development in a messy and complex way. 428 00:43:24,430 --> 00:43:31,030 And I find, you know, and you will all know this from working in development that you know quite often you can feel 429 00:43:31,030 --> 00:43:35,650 guilty about combining the politics and the economics in the social capital and the environmental. 430 00:43:35,650 --> 00:43:40,630 You know, sometimes you're kind of the way in which you read into things will push you down one avenue or another. 431 00:43:40,630 --> 00:43:44,740 And I really urge you and caution you all to really resist that and sort of fall into the trap of saying, 432 00:43:44,740 --> 00:43:49,030 I'm going to bring this toolkit and that alone, because I think that's the thing that's going to work. 433 00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:52,990 And this theory, this framework that Stephane offers, gives us a way out of that. 434 00:43:52,990 --> 00:43:58,540 I think it gives us a way to understand the multi-disciplinary nature of development and what it and what it means. 435 00:43:58,540 --> 00:44:05,170 And also and this is really critical. The internal and the external balance is not only what goes on inside a country, 436 00:44:05,170 --> 00:44:11,290 it's a way in which that country interacts with the rest of the world and rather than seek to ascribe blame or causality from, 437 00:44:11,290 --> 00:44:12,670 it's all about the internal politics, 438 00:44:12,670 --> 00:44:20,320 but the external factors proving that colonialism or war with Russia between Russia and Ukraine, whatever it is, you might argue actually, 439 00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,860 what we really need to understand is how those two things impact each other over time, 440 00:44:23,860 --> 00:44:29,780 how domestic politicians are reacting to international pressures and international intervention, and vice versa. 441 00:44:29,780 --> 00:44:32,470 There are some surprises in this, and I'm sure as you read it, 442 00:44:32,470 --> 00:44:36,550 there'll be things that you don't want to agree with or you're reading for the first time. 443 00:44:36,550 --> 00:44:44,680 So, for example, I found the analysis of China's and China experimentation and successes and failures in the very early learning from that. 444 00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:50,200 It reminded me it really resonated from the early 90s when we were working on China, the late 90s rather. 445 00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:55,000 And we're working on China from DFAT perspective and thought that China had the most fantastic development model. 446 00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:59,470 It tried and tested. And then it rolled out what worked. Goodness, look where we are today, 447 00:44:59,470 --> 00:45:04,840 but also the other really rich stories in the from the technocracy in Ethiopia and the 448 00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:09,340 expertise on FDI and attracting that into the country all the way through to what I thought 449 00:45:09,340 --> 00:45:12,820 was a brilliant elucidation of what happened in Bangladesh with the social capital 450 00:45:12,820 --> 00:45:18,520 India and the sort of the bravery to experiment and use evidence of what really works. 451 00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:22,930 So there's all there's something in that for everyone, no matter how much you think you know, a country. 452 00:45:22,930 --> 00:45:26,450 And also, it allows us to see that even within those countries and examples, 453 00:45:26,450 --> 00:45:33,010 there are multiple drivers going on at the same time as whether it's sort of peace and stability on the one hand, which you say is a precondition. 454 00:45:33,010 --> 00:45:34,360 I certainly agree with that. 455 00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:45,090 But that can sit alongside quite difficult and competing factions inside a government arguing for a fight for capturing elites, capturing rents. 456 00:45:45,090 --> 00:45:51,910 You know, the tendency toward instability and towards the governance challenge is always there, even when you have peace and stability. 457 00:45:51,910 --> 00:45:54,430 Now, none of this makes life easier for policymakers, right? 458 00:45:54,430 --> 00:45:58,840 Wouldn't it be great if we did have a silver bullet and we could all jump on one particular bandwagon? 459 00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:07,660 And as I say, what we need really as we approach development is a framework for understanding what goes well and what goes wrong. 460 00:46:07,660 --> 00:46:11,890 Something that helps us bring order to the disorder even though we accept and are cognisant, 461 00:46:11,890 --> 00:46:17,890 that will always be sort of challenged in our endeavour of understanding what's happening in a particular country. 462 00:46:17,890 --> 00:46:25,510 But we do need a framework for which to start. And the more universal we can make that framework, the less patronising we are likely to be. 463 00:46:25,510 --> 00:46:30,460 You know, you will know this, that the terms that we can use in development can be extremely patronising. 464 00:46:30,460 --> 00:46:38,790 So let's have a framework which we can equally apply to our own country or European country or a western country as becomes a developing country. 465 00:46:38,790 --> 00:46:43,410 And puts away the hubris, actually one of the best of my abilities to get rid of the term global south and global north, 466 00:46:43,410 --> 00:46:49,900 I don't think that helps anybody, particularly not in this day and age, almost though interconnected anyway, so. 467 00:46:49,900 --> 00:46:53,640 So what does all of this mean? How do we put it into practise? I might. 468 00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:59,640 My three words I've written down here are patience, humility and bravery. 469 00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:05,010 And I think over the 20 years, if someone were to ask me if they were starting out now in a career and what do I really need? 470 00:47:05,010 --> 00:47:10,770 It's patience, humility and bravery and patience because these things take a long time. 471 00:47:10,770 --> 00:47:13,740 Humility, because you don't have the answer. 472 00:47:13,740 --> 00:47:20,520 We don't have the answer, but we just need to endeavour to try and understand what might work and bravery because there are very few people, 473 00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:27,030 particularly in government, when I say this in a very personal capacity. In the end, the brave to call out when things are going wrong. 474 00:47:27,030 --> 00:47:31,440 And that's why we've made many mistakes in development over the years because we haven't 475 00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:36,690 been willing to say when things are going wrong and learning from those mistakes. And I will. 476 00:47:36,690 --> 00:47:41,130 I'm sure there'll be questions about the sort of future of UK development policy, and I'm happy to take all of those. 477 00:47:41,130 --> 00:47:47,800 But again, in my personal capacity, you know, a big debate about whether development is part of foreign policy or should it be separated. 478 00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:52,620 You know, as you know, how do we integrate in the best way? 479 00:47:52,620 --> 00:47:56,460 Is this about money? Is it about nought point seven or is it about political influence? 480 00:47:56,460 --> 00:48:08,310 But I guess what I'd finish on is to say all of that aside, what I really hope we never lose as the UK, as you know, Oxford and other, 481 00:48:08,310 --> 00:48:14,510 you know, universities who have some of the best expertise in the world, we must not lose our intellectual leadership. 482 00:48:14,510 --> 00:48:21,970 And I do feel, as I said at the start, that development studies has lost a little bit of its intellectual rigour, rigour, 483 00:48:21,970 --> 00:48:31,530 but sort of and what it really means and stands for and how development studies is really contributing to our understanding of the world. 484 00:48:31,530 --> 00:48:37,050 Thinking like this really helps us advance that your own thinking, as you would as you absorb this, will really help to advance that. 485 00:48:37,050 --> 00:48:43,800 We need frameworks like this to help us not understand, not only understand what's happened in the past, but what's going to happen in the future. 486 00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:49,620 And so I sort of really, as I said, I commend the commander's analysis and what sits within it to all of you. 487 00:48:49,620 --> 00:48:55,170 And as you sort of think about career and development to try and keep that sense, if we don't know what's going to happen, it's messy. 488 00:48:55,170 --> 00:49:00,600 But we we do as a collective need to be thoughtful, brave and take risks. 489 00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:05,810 That's the best advice I can offer. David? 490 00:49:05,810 --> 00:49:10,100 So thanks very much for coming. Thanks so much for inviting me, so I really like this book. 491 00:49:10,100 --> 00:49:15,710 And partly because I think that you had a lot of Asian countries and African countries in the book, 492 00:49:15,710 --> 00:49:26,060 and it's a comparison that you don't often see, but one that I found very interesting, partly because I spent 15 years in Asia for the F.T. 493 00:49:26,060 --> 00:49:32,660 And one of the things that you realise when you spent a lot of time in Asia is that it's 494 00:49:32,660 --> 00:49:38,390 proof that you can go from being a poor country to become a middle income or a rich country. 495 00:49:38,390 --> 00:49:45,890 I mean, I lived in Japan for a long time, and the Japanese were told by the Americans after the Second World War, you should make beads and silk. 496 00:49:45,890 --> 00:49:51,740 That was the development advice to Japan. And they said, I think we'll make cars and electronics. 497 00:49:51,740 --> 00:49:57,800 And you saw lots of countries, you know, follow that model. You so Taiwan in Seoul, South Korea and China. 498 00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:03,530 Now, Singapore, Hong Kong and I come from Asia, where countries like the Philippines, 499 00:50:03,530 --> 00:50:09,050 for sure and even Malaysia were considered the kind of the failures and the basket cases. 500 00:50:09,050 --> 00:50:18,280 And then I arrived as Africa editor of the AFC and made this kind of Africa rising hype. 501 00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:26,230 Which I think it was, and I was struck in many countries that I visited, certainly not all, 502 00:50:26,230 --> 00:50:31,720 but by, in a sense, the kind of lack of seriousness and ambition of many of the elites. 503 00:50:31,720 --> 00:50:39,220 And I like this book that it pins things on the elite so that there's a caveat to that, which I'll explain later. 504 00:50:39,220 --> 00:50:47,260 But I was I was also struck by sometimes the kind of lack of seriousness or the gap between what was being said and the reality. 505 00:50:47,260 --> 00:50:57,250 So I remember and being a big sort of delegation from Nigeria talking about all the fabulous investment opportunities in Nigeria. 506 00:50:57,250 --> 00:51:03,040 But the truth that people who tried to invest in Nigeria know is that it's really, really difficult. 507 00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:06,490 There are all sorts of obstacles in your way. 508 00:51:06,490 --> 00:51:11,740 And there was just this kind of disconnect between the the narrative that was being told and the real story. 509 00:51:11,740 --> 00:51:21,340 I mean, once I was asked how Nigeria could get more tourists, one of my first answer was, Well, 510 00:51:21,340 --> 00:51:25,960 you need to put a box on your visa form that says tourists, because there's no such books. 511 00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:31,960 So you cannot go to Nigeria as a tourist, you have to be invited by somebody and says business. 512 00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:37,840 So this is kind of proof that there's a lack of sort of seriousness there. 513 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:45,730 Again, I'm not blaming Nigerian people at all and blaming the Nigerian elites, and I would like to quote Fela Kuti on VIPs who of course, 514 00:51:45,730 --> 00:51:50,980 are by the bones in power and unless proved otherwise, I think that's how they they need. 515 00:51:50,980 --> 00:51:55,180 They need to be seen. And I think that this book is a very hot. 516 00:51:55,180 --> 00:52:02,230 It's clinical and hardnosed book, and I like it for that because they can be too much kind of fluff around these questions. 517 00:52:02,230 --> 00:52:09,290 So, you know, we know when the country is doing well and what what I think Stefan's book is about is about take off. 518 00:52:09,290 --> 00:52:15,100 It's not about becoming, you know, a perfect liberal democracy and everyone having a wonderful time. 519 00:52:15,100 --> 00:52:22,780 It's about the conditions where you begin to take off as a nation going from poverty towards something that looks like you might be going somewhere. 520 00:52:22,780 --> 00:52:26,920 And how can you tell where you can tell through data you can tell through GDP per capita? 521 00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:34,930 I mean, I wrote a whole book about how GDP is a silly measure, but it does tell you something GDP per capita that tells you something. 522 00:52:34,930 --> 00:52:38,710 So does child mortality when that goes down fast. 523 00:52:38,710 --> 00:52:43,450 You know, things are improving and the fertility rate more controversial. 524 00:52:43,450 --> 00:52:47,470 But when the fertility rate goes down fast, that's a marker of all sorts of other things. 525 00:52:47,470 --> 00:52:58,760 Women's Education Agency, you know, access to education, all sorts of things. 526 00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:04,540 And I think that this is the I think I mentioned this book, but I certainly would mention it. 527 00:53:04,540 --> 00:53:10,810 I think, you know, the Amartya Sen definition of development is a very useful one. 528 00:53:10,810 --> 00:53:17,170 It's when people have agency over their lives, it's when they can do. They can make choices, what they want to do with their lives. 529 00:53:17,170 --> 00:53:22,030 And those choices are made for them because they don't have any opportunity or agency 530 00:53:22,030 --> 00:53:31,050 over their lives because they're too poor to blighted or to beset by instability or war. 531 00:53:31,050 --> 00:53:35,840 And so, so agency is the crucial measure, I think. 532 00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:41,290 And while I really liked the simplicity of the book in this and the theory, 533 00:53:41,290 --> 00:53:49,480 which is basically you need an elite organ that is driving towards growth and development. 534 00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:51,340 And I thought that was the strength of the book. 535 00:53:51,340 --> 00:53:58,120 However, I did kind of want to add two things that in my head, one of them was this idea of the nation state. 536 00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:05,080 And I think nations that have a kind of a strong sense of nation state have a huge advantage. 537 00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:13,990 And again, I kept saying this in Asia, a country like Vietnam, you know, Japan and Ireland, Korea, which wasn't China. 538 00:54:13,990 --> 00:54:19,330 I mean, you know, these sort of national mythologies are incredibly important. 539 00:54:19,330 --> 00:54:26,500 And of course, that is one explanation as to why many African countries are yet to to take off in this definition. 540 00:54:26,500 --> 00:54:31,090 I think because of course, they're the colonial constructs. 541 00:54:31,090 --> 00:54:41,860 And here, I think that the colonial legacy and what's been done to Africa by by principally Europe is of real concern. 542 00:54:41,860 --> 00:54:49,720 Of course we are where we are and leaders of, you know, Ghana or Sierra Leone or Cote d'Ivoire or wherever, 543 00:54:49,720 --> 00:54:53,320 you know, have to start where they are and make the best of it. 544 00:54:53,320 --> 00:55:00,650 But still, you know, this sense of nation state, I'm actually I think that the fact that, you know. 545 00:55:00,650 --> 00:55:07,460 Many, many countries that were, as I say, these kind of false constructs are beginning really to feel like nations and sort of, 546 00:55:07,460 --> 00:55:13,640 you know, you do get a sense of pulling together, I think is actually a hopeful sign. 547 00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:21,170 The second thing that I think is missing is too strong, but but something that I was aware wasn't there, let's say, is the people. 548 00:55:21,170 --> 00:55:30,860 And so this is definitely a book about elites. And as I say, I like that simplicity, and perhaps I have a kind of romantic romantic idea. 549 00:55:30,860 --> 00:55:34,250 But of course, people can help shape their governments. And you see it. 550 00:55:34,250 --> 00:55:41,280 So Ghana, one of the, you know, relative success stories in Africa, has an extremely strong civil society, 551 00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:45,260 and I've seen it in action during elections where they hold their elites to account. 552 00:55:45,260 --> 00:55:50,240 They say, you elites will not steal this election. We will vote for you. 553 00:55:50,240 --> 00:55:53,520 And if you're good, we'll vote for you again. If you're bad, will kick you out. 554 00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:58,790 It's a perfect definition of democracy. I heard that on the streets of Ghana again and again. 555 00:55:58,790 --> 00:56:04,400 So I think, you know, sure, I understand the elites and the powerful, you know, 556 00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:14,330 they have certain advantages, but I don't think we should forget and the people in all of this. 557 00:56:14,330 --> 00:56:19,510 Let me just end because I want to stick to my allotted time. 558 00:56:19,510 --> 00:56:27,410 And just to say, I think this is actually quite a hopeful book in a funny way. 559 00:56:27,410 --> 00:56:34,370 It looks very kind of hard and tough, but it's hopeful because it says, you know, some countries, 560 00:56:34,370 --> 00:56:41,740 Bangladesh being a very good example, actually, which we don't think of as success because we tend to have a sort of lagged. 561 00:56:41,740 --> 00:56:50,000 But Bangladesh, through textiles, you know, the tragedies of Rana Plaza, notwithstanding through remittances, 562 00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:54,960 the tragedy of people having to leave their home to send back money notwithstanding. 563 00:56:54,960 --> 00:57:05,840 And and some of the big NGOs, you know, like the Grameen Bank and so forth has led to, you know, 20 odd years of pretty fast growth. 564 00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:11,240 And if it's all you need is 30 years of fast growth and you were really in a different place, 565 00:57:11,240 --> 00:57:17,540 it's very hard, just a few people to to dominate that will that will tend to spread wealth. 566 00:57:17,540 --> 00:57:23,600 Of course, you know, there'll be unequal societies. I'm not claiming they'll be perfect societies, but if you have 30 years of growth, 567 00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:29,240 it's very hard for for, you know, a few people to to monopolise that. 568 00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:34,880 So I think this is a book actually of agency. 569 00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:41,930 It's a book that says no matter how bad and the history that you've been dealt 570 00:57:41,930 --> 00:57:48,140 and if certain things come together and if certain people make certain choices, 571 00:57:48,140 --> 00:57:55,070 things can happen. You can have, you know, these what we call economic miracles. 572 00:57:55,070 --> 00:58:00,050 They don't. Those economic miracles don't solve everything. There's a whole political democratic dimension. 573 00:58:00,050 --> 00:58:07,640 But they do begin to address the amounts of sense and a sense of agency. 574 00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:14,570 And once a country takes off and reaches a certain level of prosperity, you know, then then it can go further on. 575 00:58:14,570 --> 00:58:19,760 But at least it started on that journey. Thank you, David. Thank you. 576 00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:25,720 Stefan, we could either open the floor immediately or you can just address for two minutes if you want to quickly. 577 00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:30,440 No, I will simply say to thank these comments and it's actually really good. 578 00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:38,010 And Melinda, this advice I've received is down and I I totally see that actually. 579 00:58:38,010 --> 00:58:43,880 And the patience, humility, bravery you should definitely remember. 580 00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:51,170 It's really useful, but also the need for, you know, getting some universal frameworks because it's less patronising. 581 00:58:51,170 --> 00:58:55,820 And I think I'm really sympathetic with the view. 582 00:58:55,820 --> 00:59:02,120 And on David's point, one thing I don't do in the book and I accept that entirely. 583 00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:05,930 I'm just so really quite fun, actually the book, so I could have done more. 584 00:59:05,930 --> 00:59:12,200 But there is something that I also like your point on the the importance of a 585 00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:18,650 national narrative and of how it could be the nation's national national narrative, 586 00:59:18,650 --> 00:59:23,630 so to speak, about nationality, about the nation state. It could be another narrative. 587 00:59:23,630 --> 00:59:30,410 And there is there is really something there about, you know, how do you how amongst, you know, elite players, 588 00:59:30,410 --> 00:59:36,200 the communicators within it, how do they actually actually articulate and actually help to shape this? 589 00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:44,150 And there's more to be said about it. At the same time, I like your point and I totally take it on the role of the people and it's garner. 590 00:59:44,150 --> 00:59:52,220 Is this really interesting? People place there because, you know, and there is a lot of research and really good evidence that over time, 591 00:59:52,220 --> 00:59:58,850 within that development bargain that I think no doubt in the 90s was largely shaped by people in the lead. 592 00:59:58,850 --> 01:00:02,840 People are also responding by voting for the right people, so to speak, if I put it in inverted commas, 593 01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:09,350 the right people that became much more outcome based politics and so on. And then finally, both comments are being made. 594 01:00:09,350 --> 01:00:16,820 You know, there is a hopeful story there. You know, there's lots of places that suck at actually places that looked really bad. 595 01:00:16,820 --> 01:00:24,860 You know, Henry Kissinger used to call, or at least the adviser calls Bangladesh a basket case as late as nineteen seventy nine. 596 01:00:24,860 --> 01:00:31,890 Nothing was going to come from this place. And you know, a lot of things that some of the more surprising places can do. 597 01:00:31,890 --> 01:00:41,240 OK, thank you. We have just under half an hour for questions, so it should give us enough time for interesting exchanges. 598 01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:48,170 Please keep your questions to make them very brief and preferably questions rather than comments. 599 01:00:48,170 --> 01:00:56,880 But whatever you do, just keep them. Keep them brief. And we'll start with you, Molly, who's just the microphone? 600 01:00:56,880 --> 01:01:01,310 Yeah, thank you. From the Oxford Department of International Development. A great book, 601 01:01:01,310 --> 01:01:07,730 and I think in a way you take the focus away from a binary distinction between autocracy 602 01:01:07,730 --> 01:01:12,170 and democracy or extractive versus inclusive institutions and bring politics back. 603 01:01:12,170 --> 01:01:19,370 But I have two questions very quickly. One is that there is prior work on the role of coalitions and political science. 604 01:01:19,370 --> 01:01:27,500 There's work in development economics by people like Mushtaq on political settlements, land projects. 605 01:01:27,500 --> 01:01:34,460 In what ways is your work really different or is it just repackaging some some of those similar ideas? 606 01:01:34,460 --> 01:01:40,730 And of course, some of the challenges that we have for the prior literature might also appear in your work. 607 01:01:40,730 --> 01:01:49,160 For example, we know very little about how countries make institutional transitions from poor to good institutions. 608 01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:57,800 How do countries move from one type of leapfrogging to another rents the idea of rents for sort of missing because of course, 609 01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:01,370 rents are crucial to sustain elite bargains. Right. 610 01:02:01,370 --> 01:02:04,100 And also for four dominant coalitions. 611 01:02:04,100 --> 01:02:14,270 The second question very quickly is that you mentioned outsiders now in a lot of context that I study outsiders insiders. 612 01:02:14,270 --> 01:02:19,070 They reinforce plea bargains. I mean, Lebanon is a classic case study. 613 01:02:19,070 --> 01:02:26,580 It's very difficult to form a government and it doesn't form, usually without some outside intervention. 614 01:02:26,580 --> 01:02:30,950 And there's, of course, asset mobility. Ricardo works on that topic today. 615 01:02:30,950 --> 01:02:35,510 There's a great paper by Gabriel Zuckerman who talks about offshore tax havens. 616 01:02:35,510 --> 01:02:46,190 Now this asset mobility sustains. Elite bargains in some ways are fragile post-conflict states where some outside settlement is important. 617 01:02:46,190 --> 01:02:51,140 So how does your work really engage with those questions? 618 01:02:51,140 --> 01:02:56,930 Thank you. These are huge questions and really, really important ones. 619 01:02:56,930 --> 01:03:03,020 So we pick up three questions and then we'll. Hi, can you introduce yourself? 620 01:03:03,020 --> 01:03:07,010 Hi, Stephan, my name is on my page in international development. 621 01:03:07,010 --> 01:03:14,390 The question is quite quick, so you talk about some of the alleged bargains that might be growth or development in using. 622 01:03:14,390 --> 01:03:20,630 And I wonder in the countries you study what makes certain countries, the elites in certain countries, 623 01:03:20,630 --> 01:03:30,770 more disposed to settling on elite bargains that might develop induce development as opposed to ones that may retard the development? 624 01:03:30,770 --> 01:03:34,280 Thank you. And another one and one from one line. 625 01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:42,290 Yes, Cowboy, you will have. Nigel says the implications of the lecture is that there is a binary division between countries, 626 01:03:42,290 --> 01:03:46,430 governments who have a development bargain and those that don't. 627 01:03:46,430 --> 01:03:55,510 Clearly, this is simplistic. How do you draw the line and what does that mean for overseas aid budgets? 628 01:03:55,510 --> 01:04:04,760 Those online questions are always yes. Yes. 629 01:04:04,760 --> 01:04:14,240 So, look, these are all very, very, very big, big questions, and maybe others here on the panel will help you out. 630 01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:18,310 So, so, so on the points that the deal makes. 631 01:04:18,310 --> 01:04:28,770 Actually, it's interesting that all the authors that you citing the XDR, they are used in the book and there are definitely parts of it. 632 01:04:28,770 --> 01:04:33,860 And then I mean, all the way from from www.shutterstock.com to Zuckman and so on. 633 01:04:33,860 --> 01:04:43,850 And you know, the. But but it's I think there's three key things. 634 01:04:43,850 --> 01:04:48,410 The idea of rents within the system is, of course, crucial. OK. 635 01:04:48,410 --> 01:04:53,370 And I think I tell the story of Indonesia. 636 01:04:53,370 --> 01:05:09,270 Where in the nineteen seventies, early 1970s, where coming out of conflict as well and lack of legitimacy of the new president, 637 01:05:09,270 --> 01:05:14,580 there's a real balancing act in terms of opening up for the Japanese investors. 638 01:05:14,580 --> 01:05:21,490 And at the same time, keeping the old elite on side. Indonesia remains a very corrupt country. 639 01:05:21,490 --> 01:05:27,640 You can definitely understand it as actually as a way you needed to get these two parts to work together because on the one hand, 640 01:05:27,640 --> 01:05:33,610 you open up the alley parking, you allow it to gradually shift and in fact, Suharto. 641 01:05:33,610 --> 01:05:41,980 It's almost like kamikaze, because by 1979, it had opened up so much that he was kicked out as well. 642 01:05:41,980 --> 01:05:50,360 But you need to do that, you know, you need to do that, so you need to keep. The Alderley there, and all was the best example is. 643 01:05:50,360 --> 01:06:04,300 The wives also have to. Who is called Madam 10 cent, which 10 cent actually 18 cent in Dutch, the old colonial master means actually 10 percent. 644 01:06:04,300 --> 01:06:07,360 And so she was nicknamed Madam 10 percent. 645 01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:14,890 So actually, to keep this transition going, 10 percent of all the infrastructure projects have to keep flowing to their. 646 01:06:14,890 --> 01:06:23,080 So you have parts of it. So I I answer in that sense, trying to answer at least one go two questions to some extent. 647 01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:31,820 You know, these plea bargains evolve. But the important thing and what I sometimes find a bit hard in someone's political settlement work. 648 01:06:31,820 --> 01:06:36,820 Is a sense of predestination, as if there's just one equilibrium that you should settle on. 649 01:06:36,820 --> 01:06:41,740 Now, one of the things is, and I was really glad that that tells us that the panel picked it up as well. 650 01:06:41,740 --> 01:06:47,630 There is agency here. Now, it's not it's really hard to make coalitions. 651 01:06:47,630 --> 01:06:54,800 But coalitions are being made, and I I'm not a big monster of how to make the perfect coalition, 652 01:06:54,800 --> 01:07:01,840 but actually those countries that are actually masterful in terms of manoeuvring their parking. 653 01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:08,320 Knowing this kind of spirit of political error correction knows of how to actually do this, and that's what we see now again. 654 01:07:08,320 --> 01:07:12,840 I can't be prescriptive and say this is the ingredients for the perfect coalition. 655 01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:21,240 But I have admiration for those who actually make this, and in fact, in the book, it's another piece that hopefully will come out soon as well. 656 01:07:21,240 --> 01:07:24,360 It's actually technocrats play an important role there, 657 01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:31,950 so very key technocrats who can almost name them in many of these countries, who wasn't in Indonesia, who wasn't in Ethiopia, 658 01:07:31,950 --> 01:07:36,900 who were the ones that actually the ones that broke or treat our kids and let it evolve and 659 01:07:36,900 --> 01:07:42,270 actually make the links with the outsiders who actually can be infecting many of these countries. 660 01:07:42,270 --> 01:07:50,220 These were economists linked with the IMF sometimes and played the game of the IMF very sensibly when crisis came and so on. 661 01:07:50,220 --> 01:07:55,620 So there is actually agency here, I can say more and so on. I refer to the book, but it's there. 662 01:07:55,620 --> 01:07:58,470 But finally and finally, we can talk. 663 01:07:58,470 --> 01:08:04,830 Talk more about it there, but link to this this other the second question in terms of, you know, where do they then come from? 664 01:08:04,830 --> 01:08:07,140 You know, where do what? How does a country central from? 665 01:08:07,140 --> 01:08:12,960 So I give you a suggestion already is because they're individuals and they don't have to be Lee Kuan Yew. 666 01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:14,610 They don't have to be the leader. 667 01:08:14,610 --> 01:08:21,930 They can often be people in the in the in the backrooms and so on who actually forge the coalitions that can actually be sustained. 668 01:08:21,930 --> 01:08:26,790 You know, and you know, Ghana is not simply Jerry Rawlings delivering this plea bargain. 669 01:08:26,790 --> 01:08:28,890 Absolutely not. It's politicians. 670 01:08:28,890 --> 01:08:36,390 In the end, learning and finding a way of within the confines of the Constitution get political transitions to work and so on. 671 01:08:36,390 --> 01:08:39,600 But there's other things as well. Bangladesh, definitely. 672 01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:47,340 It came out of conflict and chaos in the 1970s that actually choices were being made, and I have to be careful with other people know more about this. 673 01:08:47,340 --> 01:08:51,630 I think there is an element of that tension. I definitely it is. 674 01:08:51,630 --> 01:08:58,380 They're coming out of crisis. But also how ask yourself, how does the Communist Party survive? 675 01:08:58,380 --> 01:09:02,700 And it needs to seek legitimacy so you can actually coming out of conflict. 676 01:09:02,700 --> 01:09:07,770 These are moments. There's plenty of countries come out of conflict and don't do anything with it. 677 01:09:07,770 --> 01:09:12,840 Actually, some countries will come out of conflict and actually it's the moment, you know? 678 01:09:12,840 --> 01:09:18,090 I would say let's hope Ukraine can come out of conflict at some point and take its moment. 679 01:09:18,090 --> 01:09:24,360 It's not guaranteed given the history of Ukraine and the nature of the society, but you would hope so and you can see that, you know, 680 01:09:24,360 --> 01:09:31,080 this is a moment coming out of conflict at some point that you can take it, but it can also be because you look for legitimacy. 681 01:09:31,080 --> 01:09:38,550 Ethiopia was speaking both times of conflict, but actually relatively speaking, a very small ethnic group came to power. 682 01:09:38,550 --> 01:09:45,780 The game is represented at the time, and I have to be careful if they don't like you two to describe it, 683 01:09:45,780 --> 01:09:50,550 but you know, they are ultimately linked to a particular ethnic group and so on. 684 01:09:50,550 --> 01:09:55,290 So you can actually go developmental because you are looking for legitimacy and so on. 685 01:09:55,290 --> 01:10:02,430 So finally, yes, it's simplistic. Look, I was complimented on the panel of actually trying to actually be relatively simple 686 01:10:02,430 --> 01:10:07,620 in terms of communicates with the way the framework and I do this consciously. 687 01:10:07,620 --> 01:10:14,070 There is no country that is a perfect development bargain in a perfect non-development backing and these elements. 688 01:10:14,070 --> 01:10:20,730 In fact, I talk in the book about Kenya, Uganda and I put actually a table there in the middle that seems to be evolving. 689 01:10:20,730 --> 01:10:26,610 I actually just want to appeal that you actually question yourself and actually saying, you know, where is this? 690 01:10:26,610 --> 01:10:33,090 And how do we think about the politics? And I'm actually happier if people start debating and saying, this is not trying to right here. 691 01:10:33,090 --> 01:10:39,570 And maybe it's more rungs here, especially those who as outsiders get involved rather than simplistically saying, 692 01:10:39,570 --> 01:10:44,850 Oh, this is perfect or this is not perfect and an analogy to Africa. 693 01:10:44,850 --> 01:10:48,210 Thank you. And we'll go for another round of questions. 694 01:10:48,210 --> 01:10:58,590 I wanted to remind the audience that there will be books for sale outside black holes is there and there will be drinks, most importantly, at 6:30. 695 01:10:58,590 --> 01:11:08,150 Who would like to? So there's a question there. 696 01:11:08,150 --> 01:11:08,900 Hello, yes. 697 01:11:08,900 --> 01:11:16,820 James Dixon from the Transport Studies Unit, So my question might be doing it down a little bit, but this is around around the the early bargaining. 698 01:11:16,820 --> 01:11:22,070 So I just wondered, and to what extent does it matter who the elite are? 699 01:11:22,070 --> 01:11:25,600 So we've been speaking in terms of of. 700 01:11:25,600 --> 01:11:33,340 Perhaps the social elite in the case of Nigeria, from whom you quoted Fela Kuti and we've been talking in terms of things, 701 01:11:33,340 --> 01:11:40,990 as you mentioned Russia and I guess that of the formation of what we'd call the oligarchy and in fact, the guy for whom your institute is named. 702 01:11:40,990 --> 01:11:46,420 I guess you could call these a form of elite bargaining tools and I guess flash forward a few centuries. 703 01:11:46,420 --> 01:11:54,220 And we have these massively powerful multinationals and I guess our elites are now the angel investors and the for want of a better word. 704 01:11:54,220 --> 01:12:01,000 Silicon Valley grows who are moving vast swathes of capital around the globe for these things. 705 01:12:01,000 --> 01:12:06,160 And I guess to contextualise this, I was privileged enough to spend a week and a bit in Nairobi last month, 706 01:12:06,160 --> 01:12:09,250 and I was meeting a lot of people in in start-ups, 707 01:12:09,250 --> 01:12:16,030 I guess, who were involved in this, specifically the immobility of electric motorbikes, electric mini buses in in Kenya. 708 01:12:16,030 --> 01:12:22,300 So and it dawned on me that none of the people I met in the senior positions with these countries were Kenyan. 709 01:12:22,300 --> 01:12:26,910 They were all from America or Britain or Sweden or Germany or whatever. 710 01:12:26,910 --> 01:12:36,430 And this kind of is making me think in reflection of the talk you've given us to, to to in this instance, are they the elites making these bargains? 711 01:12:36,430 --> 01:12:40,630 And to what extent does does it matter who it is? 712 01:12:40,630 --> 01:12:46,680 Thank you. It's a good question. Is there another question from the audience? 713 01:12:46,680 --> 01:12:53,470 I'm sorry, there's one here, and then we'll get the next the third question. 714 01:12:53,470 --> 01:12:59,830 Thank you. Hi, timidly, I'm a. Consultants. 715 01:12:59,830 --> 01:13:13,870 No one, you you hesitated there. I'm trying to think of a grand title, but I don't have one former defence which informs my question, 716 01:13:13,870 --> 01:13:21,760 so I haven't read the book, but I will and I'll go and I'll go and get one for me. 717 01:13:21,760 --> 01:13:24,110 The framework you're talking about, I think, is very interesting. 718 01:13:24,110 --> 01:13:31,060 A lot of it resonates with my own experience and kind of understanding of how the aid sector operates. 719 01:13:31,060 --> 01:13:39,350 And I really like also that the patient's humility, bravery, kind of the key takeaways. 720 01:13:39,350 --> 01:13:48,170 I think for me, one of the things that really resonated from what you're saying was around the ability to course correct the 721 01:13:48,170 --> 01:13:56,900 ability to kind of recognise when things are working and not working and and kind of adapt as we're going along. 722 01:13:56,900 --> 01:13:59,900 My question and you kind of touched on it, 723 01:13:59,900 --> 01:14:08,990 but I'd be interested to hear a little bit more is how well do you feel that the international aid system embodies those 724 01:14:08,990 --> 01:14:23,510 kinds of principles and and you is set up to genuinely actually kind of incentivise that kind of developmental action? 725 01:14:23,510 --> 01:14:32,630 Thank you. Thank you. And I'll use my prerogative as chair just to ask a quick sort of writer on that when you speak about outsiders. 726 01:14:32,630 --> 01:14:39,200 Stephan, I'm thinking of specifically a couple of people you put up there. 727 01:14:39,200 --> 01:14:48,290 It's not just that their policies failed is that their policies were malevolent in terms of the consequences for the societies, 728 01:14:48,290 --> 01:14:57,770 sometimes out of sheer ignorance and arrogance, often because of ulterior motives and also thinking of the centrality of, for instance, 729 01:14:57,770 --> 01:15:03,680 of illicit financial flows and in particular the role of the City of London and 730 01:15:03,680 --> 01:15:12,320 its overseas territories in scooping up a lot of money from the global south. 731 01:15:12,320 --> 01:15:15,690 I won't use the expression too much. 732 01:15:15,690 --> 01:15:27,530 So beyond is there a strong do no evil agenda which would be as central to our actions as the actual proactive actions themselves? 733 01:15:27,530 --> 01:15:33,110 And if so, how do we look over the last 20 and 30 years of actual? 734 01:15:33,110 --> 01:15:42,020 If you will see the quote unquote western policy on those big issues of development that your book focuses on? 735 01:15:42,020 --> 01:15:48,740 And Claire, I've got two quick questions on elite bargains online. 736 01:15:48,740 --> 01:15:55,160 One asks How do you know that you're defining the leapfrogging for development independently of successful outcomes? 737 01:15:55,160 --> 01:16:00,470 And the other is a related to David's comment on people holding their leaders to account. 738 01:16:00,470 --> 01:16:08,810 Does the book book engage with development agencies and international institutes propping up failed Alipay bargains? 739 01:16:08,810 --> 01:16:22,280 Did that make sense? It did. Maybe not for me, but I'm good at the so I leave the last question until this answer because I didn't quite hear it well, 740 01:16:22,280 --> 01:16:26,500 but so, so so so the first question. 741 01:16:26,500 --> 01:16:32,870 It's interesting to get to the Kenya example, of course, and you know, the venture capitalist space in Kenya, it is shocking. 742 01:16:32,870 --> 01:16:38,830 You know, 60 70 percent of the venture capital goes to Americans in Kenya. 743 01:16:38,830 --> 01:16:46,330 So we all say it's a massively dynamic place, but it's basically people come in there and capture all of the money. 744 01:16:46,330 --> 01:16:51,310 But if you ask a really good question, who is the elites? And but you also qualify that. 745 01:16:51,310 --> 01:17:00,760 So does it matter who it is? Now I have a I think I can define the first one and the second one I find intriguing for myself, 746 01:17:00,760 --> 01:17:04,870 and I'm not sure that I have a clear answer, and I don't think I answer this in the book. 747 01:17:04,870 --> 01:17:09,430 So the first thing is, you know, who is the elite was people with power and influence. 748 01:17:09,430 --> 01:17:15,010 But the main reason why I want to talk about the elites that I don't want to talk about the politician, 749 01:17:15,010 --> 01:17:18,370 the leader, the minister of policy, politics and so on. 750 01:17:18,370 --> 01:17:19,720 I don't want to reduce it there. 751 01:17:19,720 --> 01:17:26,320 That's why I keep on actually sleazy people in the economy that just this past, because the politics and the economics is totally connected. 752 01:17:26,320 --> 01:17:31,420 It can be the other people there in the military and so on. And so so that connectivity needs to come out. 753 01:17:31,420 --> 01:17:36,220 So that's why I actually went for the idea of talking about it rather than actually seeing the 754 01:17:36,220 --> 01:17:41,530 political class or the politician because it is broader at this people with power and influence. 755 01:17:41,530 --> 01:17:46,510 And then we can start defining who are they? But also, how do you get into it? 756 01:17:46,510 --> 01:17:49,180 And I alluded to it earlier. It evolves all the time. 757 01:17:49,180 --> 01:17:55,900 And in fact, to help them bargain, I think typically will involve opening the door for newcomers to come in. 758 01:17:55,900 --> 01:17:59,020 If you if you really strongly want to go, 759 01:17:59,020 --> 01:18:04,870 say in the land picture kind of worlds of thinking about it where he used this classification and a little bit like, 760 01:18:04,870 --> 01:18:09,520 Oh, you make it open and now it's all will start happening. I think it's a bit more gradual. 761 01:18:09,520 --> 01:18:14,020 It's a bit more it gets it's built in. But again, that example, Indonesia, 762 01:18:14,020 --> 01:18:19,420 they actually fundamentally probably started undermining the early bargain that was actually 763 01:18:19,420 --> 01:18:24,010 that existed by getting all these new investors in in Bangladesh is a great example. 764 01:18:24,010 --> 01:18:31,570 Initially, the government investors were outside this, very much so, and they it took them 20 years to become the insiders. 765 01:18:31,570 --> 01:18:38,560 And now actually, a lot of people say Bangladesh is maybe not going to continue to be a success, and I'm not going to speak out on that. 766 01:18:38,560 --> 01:18:46,810 I don't know. But actually, now the garment industry is probably now the most blocking in terms of economic policy and economic renewal. 767 01:18:46,810 --> 01:18:55,240 So that's 25 years later. And so you get this so you get this evolving thing of of who is in, who is out and so on. 768 01:18:55,240 --> 01:19:00,430 It's there. But but I appreciate this question. I'm not fully answering it and I get it. 769 01:19:00,430 --> 01:19:07,240 So the second question is the party, the international community ability, a willingness and so on and then ask for is actually short. 770 01:19:07,240 --> 01:19:13,570 You know, you ask me how to look back at this and their ability to do it and then say, Oh, the terrible, it's fast. 771 01:19:13,570 --> 01:19:21,850 And it's not because of will end or hopefully not with me, but it's actually, you know, it's you know, we are when we are, we did it. 772 01:19:21,850 --> 01:19:26,140 And I think, you know you and if we would recognise all the time that you know, 773 01:19:26,140 --> 01:19:31,660 you get pushed to magic beans, to silver bullets, to grandstanding, to all kinds of things. 774 01:19:31,660 --> 01:19:39,010 And it's actually really hard to do this kind of patient work with humility because everything has to be a success. 775 01:19:39,010 --> 01:19:43,900 You know, there's no humanity possible. It has to be declared to success even before anything is done. 776 01:19:43,900 --> 01:19:47,980 And then the final thing could it's yeah, this commander is on the course correction. 777 01:19:47,980 --> 01:19:51,250 I think the crucial thing is actually not the outsiders, the aid. 778 01:19:51,250 --> 01:19:57,670 I mean that that that in the book is a kind of a minimal part that the whole thesis of the book really is. 779 01:19:57,670 --> 01:20:03,550 This happens internally. It can be helps nudge the loan. 780 01:20:03,550 --> 01:20:08,980 It could certainly be hindered by outsiders, but it's basically it's an internal pact. 781 01:20:08,980 --> 01:20:17,950 And on the course correction, I mean, there are two two things to quote. One is banks helping, you know, crossing the river by filling the stands. 782 01:20:17,950 --> 01:20:21,770 You know, this is very much so. They didn't know what was going to happen. 783 01:20:21,770 --> 01:20:27,550 They felt the stones as they as they went along. And that was they slipped up and they they mucked up. 784 01:20:27,550 --> 01:20:32,470 And but they, you know, headed towards the other side, at the very least. 785 01:20:32,470 --> 01:20:38,810 And the other very important thing is data, which you mentioned in your book Bangladesh very strong data. 786 01:20:38,810 --> 01:20:41,620 You know, if you don't know what's happening or if you don't care what's happening, 787 01:20:41,620 --> 01:20:51,820 if you don't count who's dying and of what or how many mothers die in childbirth or whatever, then you don't have a policy. 788 01:20:51,820 --> 01:20:54,960 So data is very crucial for course, correction. 789 01:20:54,960 --> 01:21:02,080 And that's why it's great to have people on the panel to actually give you the better answer than I was because actually aids, 790 01:21:02,080 --> 01:21:05,890 even though I talk at the end about what outsiders can do, it doesn't happen. 791 01:21:05,890 --> 01:21:11,460 It doesn't appear until then until very much towards the end the stories of these countries. 792 01:21:11,460 --> 01:21:16,710 These are largely about what's happening in there, and it has to be done about it, so. 793 01:21:16,710 --> 01:21:27,610 So maybe they are just commentaire on the on the, you know, first of all, I do not subscribe of the ignorance thesis of of about policy making. 794 01:21:27,610 --> 01:21:30,450 It is deliberate deliberately most of the time. 795 01:21:30,450 --> 01:21:37,140 I think a lot of of the bats of the malevolent policy maker, it's it's deliberate and not makes it even worse. 796 01:21:37,140 --> 01:21:45,840 And I think in order to do no evil and calling them out, and I hope in the book to give let me just name a DRC in Nigeria, 797 01:21:45,840 --> 01:21:52,110 Malawi and Sierra Leone a hard time because I do think, you know, there is huge responsibility there. 798 01:21:52,110 --> 01:21:57,390 And at the same time, of course, what you talk about, you know, us making, it's making history for it. 799 01:21:57,390 --> 01:22:01,560 I was I was this morning thinking of how do I get a bit more of this thing on Twitter? 800 01:22:01,560 --> 01:22:03,120 And I was thinking of running a quiz, 801 01:22:03,120 --> 01:22:10,650 and one of the questions is going to be which London firm was most complicit in the Gupta brother scandal in South Africa? 802 01:22:10,650 --> 01:22:15,430 Which is exactly. That's the answer. Every day is fine. 803 01:22:15,430 --> 01:22:19,830 Any, any, any law firm or accountancy firm was involved. 804 01:22:19,830 --> 01:22:23,670 So. So I have not named it. So I have not live with myself. 805 01:22:23,670 --> 01:22:32,940 So that's right. But the thing, OK, there is there is the comment here about the successful outcome of a defined it. 806 01:22:32,940 --> 01:22:36,780 You know, look, I'm actually now going to use the Ethiopian defence. 807 01:22:36,780 --> 01:22:45,680 I will still say that Ethiopia has in 2005 to 2020 develop a party, even though possibly it will all unravel. 808 01:22:45,680 --> 01:22:51,320 A conflict came and the plea bargain wasn't strong enough. But I do think that they were trying to do it. 809 01:22:51,320 --> 01:22:56,450 It wasn't inclusive and there was all kinds of issues with it and politically it didn't look it looked quite ugly. 810 01:22:56,450 --> 01:23:01,490 So when the question comes, you know, how do you know the risks? One, you know, that's the first thing you all. 811 01:23:01,490 --> 01:23:08,360 You know, you don't know. You think recognised, but maybe more important to come back to the gambling points. 812 01:23:08,360 --> 01:23:13,670 Why don't you use the benefit of the doubt and actually gamble on a few more and actually give them a chance? 813 01:23:13,670 --> 01:23:19,260 And actually, I find it very striking that if I look at this stuff for a moment, look at international sides. 814 01:23:19,260 --> 01:23:23,930 We're very good at very quickly categorising places in particular camps. 815 01:23:23,930 --> 01:23:30,890 I spent two weeks in Cambodia until last week. You know, it's vilified and it's not a very good place. 816 01:23:30,890 --> 01:23:38,120 But my God is in development indicators. The progress is actually really striking and I don't know one LDC country that 817 01:23:38,120 --> 01:23:44,450 probably will graduates out of LDC status with income poverty as low as Cambodia has. 818 01:23:44,450 --> 01:23:48,140 But meanwhile, everybody has sanctioned them left, right and centre. 819 01:23:48,140 --> 01:23:52,550 And so then you ask yourself, you know, are you actually willing to give them a chance to gamble? 820 01:23:52,550 --> 01:23:56,690 And yes, they're not perfect and all kinds of things wrong with it. But you want to do this? 821 01:23:56,690 --> 01:24:02,300 And then the final question that you all understood and I did and maybe someone else, 822 01:24:02,300 --> 01:24:10,520 I thought the final question from the online audience was whether that of accountability 823 01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:17,360 also included the foreign agencies that come in and blunder about basically. 824 01:24:17,360 --> 01:24:23,090 I think that that was the gist of the question is, yes, they do blogging about it. 825 01:24:23,090 --> 01:24:30,470 And are they accountable? That's the, you know, it's a really good question. 826 01:24:30,470 --> 01:24:37,730 I think I'm often just to say I'm thinking of the conversation we had briefly before coming specifically 827 01:24:37,730 --> 01:24:44,120 about about post-Soviet economic policies and some of the people you put up on your slide. 828 01:24:44,120 --> 01:24:49,700 What does accountability look like when we know what that trajectory was like? 829 01:24:49,700 --> 01:24:56,960 We know we can name people who advise the Russian governments to do the liberalisation at the time and that particular way, 830 01:24:56,960 --> 01:25:03,590 and they happened to be someone who wrote a book both ends of poverty and and it includes some others as well. 831 01:25:03,590 --> 01:25:07,130 So, you know, there is. Is there any accountability for that? 832 01:25:07,130 --> 01:25:12,410 No, and we should be very careful. And I think it's all advisors who we have. 833 01:25:12,410 --> 01:25:16,940 We, as academics, typically have very limited accountability for anything we do. 834 01:25:16,940 --> 01:25:23,600 And maybe I'm not saying we should put anyone on trial, but there is a sense of, you know, 835 01:25:23,600 --> 01:25:31,820 being willing to accept that actually you don't do the right thing and agencies probably will do that as well at times and qualitatively. 836 01:25:31,820 --> 01:25:38,450 So you don't have a good example, and I've diplomatically mentioned it's one of them. 837 01:25:38,450 --> 01:25:43,620 Yeah, I think we have the time just for a very quick round of questions. 838 01:25:43,620 --> 01:25:52,910 So there are three questions here. If you can make them extremely brief because we have to wrap up. 839 01:25:52,910 --> 01:26:02,240 Students at Kellogg, Peter Hinton's My Name. And can I just refer back to Dambisa Moyo, who I think in 2010 in her book, 840 01:26:02,240 --> 01:26:09,950 which was on your screen, it is that advocated stopping aid altogether and seeing what happens. 841 01:26:09,950 --> 01:26:19,220 Do you think the panel, whether we'd be better off actually saying, let's have a five year period of no aid and seeing what happens? 842 01:26:19,220 --> 01:26:23,090 Thank you. The other one and then the final one here. Thank you. 843 01:26:23,090 --> 01:26:26,720 I'm wired. I'm a postdoc. Here was. 844 01:26:26,720 --> 01:26:35,060 My question is if in 10 years, we will come back to another session asking why countries are not striking a development bargain? 845 01:26:35,060 --> 01:26:46,040 Why not? Why aren't they gambling on it? Because we have had this round of one wish every decade sometimes. 846 01:26:46,040 --> 01:26:54,120 Why aren't countries gambling on if we can predict if there are some answers to that? 847 01:26:54,120 --> 01:27:03,570 And there's one here and is there one online as well? OK, I just want to go back to the slides where you had the books and. 848 01:27:03,570 --> 01:27:06,480 Fortunately, unfortunately, I've actually read all those books. 849 01:27:06,480 --> 01:27:13,950 And one thing that I keep picking up a thread that I keep picking up is the fact that there's a great disconnect between, 850 01:27:13,950 --> 01:27:18,720 you know, writing the book and speaking to all the policymakers and writing the book and speaking to, 851 01:27:18,720 --> 01:27:25,060 for example, I'm Nigerian, speaking to Nigerians who are on ground, who are the beneficiaries or victims, depending on where you're standing. 852 01:27:25,060 --> 01:27:29,490 Said policies So one thing I'm starting to question every time someone comes up with a new book 853 01:27:29,490 --> 01:27:36,540 is to what extent do you go beyond engaging with the vice president and actually engage with, 854 01:27:36,540 --> 01:27:38,880 you know, the people on the streets? 855 01:27:38,880 --> 01:27:47,520 I don't know what a better way to put that is, but to to actually engage with the people who suffer or enjoy the, you know, 856 01:27:47,520 --> 01:27:53,620 the development policies that are made versus, say, you know, the vice president who's just, you know, doing whatever. 857 01:27:53,620 --> 01:27:56,670 Very good. Thank you, Clara. And a quick one on line. 858 01:27:56,670 --> 01:28:04,920 Jane has asked, What are your thoughts on inclusive wealth as a measurement of economic growth as opposed to GDP? 859 01:28:04,920 --> 01:28:11,240 And might this change any of the patterns of growth observed across developing regions? 860 01:28:11,240 --> 01:28:20,180 So we just ask Linda and also David and an end with things and so any any final comments or any answers to these. 861 01:28:20,180 --> 01:28:28,400 So I like the why not gamble question. I mean, I think at least don't gamble when they don't need to when they've got a perfectly good thing going. 862 01:28:28,400 --> 01:28:33,020 You know, I remember being in the Philippines and being someone's house and there were like 50 servants. 863 01:28:33,020 --> 01:28:37,640 And I remember just thinking, why would this guy want these people to be wealthy? 864 01:28:37,640 --> 01:28:40,620 You know, he likes them exactly where they are. 865 01:28:40,620 --> 01:28:48,560 And, you know, if the elites have it good and is the kind of stability, I think they carry on in a simple way. 866 01:28:48,560 --> 01:28:57,560 I mean, elite leapfrog and the growth and development is let's make the pie bigger. 867 01:28:57,560 --> 01:29:03,440 But that's a gamble. It's a gamble because it may mean that you then lose power because all these new people come in and kick you out. 868 01:29:03,440 --> 01:29:09,500 And the other bit of the gamble is it may not work. I suppose the inclusive wealth, as I say, I wrote a whole book on this. 869 01:29:09,500 --> 01:29:15,570 I mean, you know, for sure, you know, you know, if you have, you know, 870 01:29:15,570 --> 01:29:20,600 the GDP per capita doesn't tell you anything because you don't know how it's distributed. 871 01:29:20,600 --> 01:29:27,710 So you know, you can look at mean income or you can look at some of these other statistics that I mentioned, you know, child mortality, et cetera. 872 01:29:27,710 --> 01:29:35,120 I mean, if all the wealth is going to a certain number of people, well, that's not, you know, and the country's growing very fast. 873 01:29:35,120 --> 01:29:43,970 Equatorial Guinea is not a bad example. You know, that was oil and three people spent it all and sends it to Paris and Switzerland and wherever. 874 01:29:43,970 --> 01:29:47,420 You know, that's not an elite bargain worth having. 875 01:29:47,420 --> 01:29:54,860 That's just extraction. And so, yes, absolutely. If growth is not inclusive to some extent, it's not going to be perfect. 876 01:29:54,860 --> 01:30:05,670 It's not perfect in Britain. God knows. But if it's if it means that more people have a chance of agents, it's come back to that. 877 01:30:05,670 --> 01:30:12,860 Whatever you want to say, a dignified life and then some, then you know, you know, something's working. 878 01:30:12,860 --> 01:30:21,350 So I wanted to take the question about, do we think that it be a good idea to just switch off aid for five years, will that be a good idea? 879 01:30:21,350 --> 01:30:31,380 So I definitely don't think that fiscal transfers in the form of free money from donors to developing countries is the answer. 880 01:30:31,380 --> 01:30:40,980 But I equally think that development, investment, development, finance, particularly climate finance investments, is really important. 881 01:30:40,980 --> 01:30:45,420 I also think that when the humanitarian crisis or disasters strike, you really, 882 01:30:45,420 --> 01:30:53,100 really want to make sure that you have a risk pool so that the pool that supports people when they're going through the worst forms of suffering. 883 01:30:53,100 --> 01:31:01,950 So it's not a yes or no. I guess I would say the industry that's built up on the notion that developed 884 01:31:01,950 --> 01:31:06,380 countries owe a certain amount to developing to pay for their development is wrong. 885 01:31:06,380 --> 01:31:13,470 That's that's over. And it should be. And in its place, we need an answer, which is more about the development finance system, 886 01:31:13,470 --> 01:31:19,950 which supports sustained growth, sustained and sustainable growth. 887 01:31:19,950 --> 01:31:29,550 And this has become so politicised, as you know. So the question and the challenge for us all is how do we get from what was to what needs to be? 888 01:31:29,550 --> 01:31:32,090 And I also just wanted to quickly ask the question on accountability. 889 01:31:32,090 --> 01:31:39,240 So it was a great question that the Nigeria case, I mean, and colleagues in the room who I recognise have worked with us on this. 890 01:31:39,240 --> 01:31:45,680 Goodness, how have we tried to bring in forms of accountability to the way in which we design aid programmes that just goes beyond those 891 01:31:45,680 --> 01:31:51,800 conversations we have with government into the conversations that you need to have with such a broad range of stakeholders? 892 01:31:51,800 --> 01:31:58,010 And this is where the data point is really key, actually, because data tells you so much of that story. 893 01:31:58,010 --> 01:32:06,230 And you just need to be extremely skilled and and have the presence on the ground and really savvy people that know 894 01:32:06,230 --> 01:32:12,170 what they're doing to get out of the clutches of those sort of captured conversations into a conversation about, 895 01:32:12,170 --> 01:32:18,170 is this intervention or is this policy making a real impact? And how do we know it's the really the best form of investment? 896 01:32:18,170 --> 01:32:22,250 And many people far wiser and more experienced than I have tried and bashed the head against a brick wall. 897 01:32:22,250 --> 01:32:28,400 But I mean, for exactly the point, you raise the hypocrisy of not doing that, just to say this is really critical. 898 01:32:28,400 --> 01:32:34,070 Thank you, Stefan. Final words. So just quickly, flex your quickly on this in this point. 899 01:32:34,070 --> 01:32:39,830 So. So the final one on the growth in the wealth, I think David Answer did very well. 900 01:32:39,830 --> 01:32:42,530 You know, in the book, I work with the data I have, 901 01:32:42,530 --> 01:32:51,120 but there's all the time trying to emphasise the the other indicators of of of of do with poverty, with health, education, fertility and so on. 902 01:32:51,120 --> 01:32:56,570 You want to do this focus on increasing wealth, if we could measure it, if we could have the data, I would love to do it. 903 01:32:56,570 --> 01:33:00,740 It's there at the eight. No. Eight is an interesting point. 904 01:33:00,740 --> 01:33:08,640 So. So you know, there is definitely in countries where there is some kind of development bargain going on. 905 01:33:08,640 --> 01:33:12,590 You know, actually, it is quite beneficial. I will I will. 906 01:33:12,590 --> 01:33:19,190 I mean, there's no I mean, Hussein I've seen wrote an excellent book The Eight Club on Bangladesh. 907 01:33:19,190 --> 01:33:23,780 It's a great book and actually AIDS is part of the success story of Bangladesh. 908 01:33:23,780 --> 01:33:27,980 It is actually really being being part of it, Ghana. 909 01:33:27,980 --> 01:33:32,480 It was very important as well. So we want to be very careful. 910 01:33:32,480 --> 01:33:37,190 I want to be more careful and find ways of being sensible and selective. 911 01:33:37,190 --> 01:33:42,200 I don't think we should have given to do that much with Kabila in the DRC. 912 01:33:42,200 --> 01:33:49,940 We I would be cautious in Nigeria to actually spends a lot on health because the government can't be bothered spending anything on health. 913 01:33:49,940 --> 01:33:55,970 And I actually worry about that. You actually give them an excuse. So I want to be more careful and saying conditionality. 914 01:33:55,970 --> 01:33:59,180 In the book, I write a lot about that that I really don't like that. 915 01:33:59,180 --> 01:34:05,170 But you want to think more carefully about what is the impact of the things that I will be doing so. 916 01:34:05,170 --> 01:34:09,560 So, you know, is there still some time for it? I think yes. 917 01:34:09,560 --> 01:34:15,440 Not least at this point. I then said earlier, these technocrats that you have there, you can actually strengthen with the aid. 918 01:34:15,440 --> 01:34:21,770 If you're being very careful, you can actually support them with the things they really want to do and the kind of productive things. 919 01:34:21,770 --> 01:34:26,360 But just be very, very careful. So should we be doing this in 30 years from now? 920 01:34:26,360 --> 01:34:30,120 I probably don't think so. So you kind of think, you know, it comes back. 921 01:34:30,120 --> 01:34:35,430 But why is it? It's not not gambling. It's disruptive. And why should you? 922 01:34:35,430 --> 01:34:43,610 You know, if I have about $500 per capita of oil rents in Nigeria per person in two minutes and 20 million people, 923 01:34:43,610 --> 01:34:53,910 you know, if I can divide it up amongst 100000 people, I'll be really rich amongst the 100000 and I've defined Nigeria. 924 01:34:53,910 --> 01:34:59,270 You know, why should I do anything else? I have a wonderful life. I have these rents that I can capture. 925 01:34:59,270 --> 01:35:05,870 Come to it. Do I talk enough to ordinary people? You know, it's actually really glad you asked me because I was this afternoon looking for 926 01:35:05,870 --> 01:35:10,760 pictures and I realised that I never liked when I went to the villages and 927 01:35:10,760 --> 01:35:15,140 doing the studies and talking to people actually to have pictures taken because 928 01:35:15,140 --> 01:35:18,590 it's always the white person with a with the well-dressed into the village. 929 01:35:18,590 --> 01:35:25,660 And I never I don't seem to have them. But actually, one point I always made a difference and I don't want to sound saintly. 930 01:35:25,660 --> 01:35:32,060 It's for self interest. That's why I like to show you. But if I visited the capital, I always said, I want to be in the village as well. 931 01:35:32,060 --> 01:35:36,530 And I would only go to a country if I get the chance to actually go in the village. I'm a cultural economist. 932 01:35:36,530 --> 01:35:41,240 I love hanging out and talking about the livelihoods of people who I consult. 933 01:35:41,240 --> 01:35:45,830 I don't know whether I can do. I give them a voice? I hope here and there as well. 934 01:35:45,830 --> 01:35:49,730 But it's it's it's a good point and others have commented on it. 935 01:35:49,730 --> 01:35:55,490 And I think it's the kind of thing, you know, I think I take away actually from this, you know, 936 01:35:55,490 --> 01:36:01,040 probably the next book, let me probably turn the tables and actually the one, and it should be about. 937 01:36:01,040 --> 01:36:08,050 And what do the non-elite now do? And I will be very happy to to talk about this file and I think have some good stories too. 938 01:36:08,050 --> 01:36:18,860 But meanwhile, the book is what it is for now, and I hope you enjoy. Thank you very much. 939 01:36:18,860 --> 01:36:26,150 This has been such a such a great panel. Stefan, congratulations again on your fascinating book. 940 01:36:26,150 --> 01:36:32,030 And thank you to the panellists. It's been a really pleasure. 941 01:36:32,030 --> 01:36:41,952 Drinks and books are also. Thank you for us.