1 00:00:00,330 --> 00:00:13,170 So Professor Steve Carell has come up from the University of Sheffield to you come down to talk to us, as you can see by the title, 2 00:00:13,170 --> 00:00:16,620 about the long term effects of Thatcherite social and economic policies since 3 00:00:16,620 --> 00:00:20,519 the project he's been working on for a few years already and will continue, 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:28,650 I think, because I think he's about to work on that. And in the past is what's the system, some persistent longitudinal study of probation officers. 5 00:00:28,660 --> 00:00:34,320 And for those of us who were in Oxford 100 years ago, Fair Fight was very much his thing. 6 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:44,639 And Steve was with us at the centre, I think it was then, and he might like to make three one to 6 to 29, 6 to 2000. 7 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,940 And I seem to recall being your internal examiner. 8 00:00:48,270 --> 00:00:51,490 Yes, that's right. Yeah. Which makes me feel very old. 9 00:00:53,130 --> 00:01:00,210 I can't remember which was one. So it's nice to see another photograph in Oxford and we're very much looking forward to this talk. 10 00:01:00,420 --> 00:01:07,310 And a variation of this talk is published in the ABC Collection Council for Criminal Justice, which I had to sit with notables. 11 00:01:07,370 --> 00:01:13,020 And so if you're up to 25,000 sessions, you've got to read about it in that book. 12 00:01:14,220 --> 00:01:18,200 It's called Your Friends the Way. 13 00:01:20,700 --> 00:01:24,389 Well, okay, lovely. Thank you very much for the invitation. 14 00:01:24,390 --> 00:01:28,230 I'm going to be doing all of the talking. But so far, Mr. Cowling, it is. 15 00:01:28,230 --> 00:01:36,670 And we're glad you also spoke to her so much. Played a part in this this project, too. 16 00:01:37,060 --> 00:01:45,660 So what am I going to look at? The thing I'll never go. So I'm going to talk a bit about the motivations for the project, 17 00:01:46,290 --> 00:01:59,250 and then I'm going to talk about the extent to which the social economic policies of the 1980s were related to crime, 18 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:04,810 particularly going to focus on property crimes in this case, well within 5:00. 19 00:02:04,830 --> 00:02:10,820 Well, when we can explore what happens when crime rates rise, that's quick response. 20 00:02:10,830 --> 00:02:15,540 And then I'm going to start to move towards a conclusion of of sorts. 21 00:02:15,540 --> 00:02:19,739 So onto the motivations. 22 00:02:19,740 --> 00:02:29,490 And I've got a bit of a beef really with not just criminologists but a lot of other social scientists as well, 23 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:43,080 about banging on all the talk about neo liberalism and all of the experts to some degree focus on neo liberalism, 24 00:02:43,770 --> 00:02:57,659 not exclusively to dismiss, to disregard conservatism, but certainly highlight neo liberalism at the expense of neo conservatism. 25 00:02:57,660 --> 00:03:01,530 And they become the best exemplar I can give of. 26 00:03:01,530 --> 00:03:06,390 This is a book by Mark Hayes, which is for his book The Scientist, 27 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:12,600 and which is called something like the New Right in Britain, in America in the 1980s. 28 00:03:13,050 --> 00:03:22,860 So no small book that deals with the way in which people are approaching the new right in the 1980s. 29 00:03:22,860 --> 00:03:28,920 And the book has two parts to it, and the first part is neoconservatism, and the second part is called neo liberalism. 30 00:03:29,790 --> 00:03:33,600 And we as a community of scholars, I think, 31 00:03:33,900 --> 00:03:45,900 have focussed unnecessarily closely on neo liberalism and have kind of forgotten about the other aspects of that kind of new right approach, 32 00:03:45,900 --> 00:03:53,640 which was the neo conservative aspects. Now that in itself is a bit of a shame, I think, to look at one side of the coin, 33 00:03:54,030 --> 00:04:03,209 but I think that's particularly erroneous in the context of criminology because it's the neo conservative aspects of the 34 00:04:03,210 --> 00:04:11,490 right thinking that I think really drive criminal justice policy because it's the neo conservative stuff that's it's about, 35 00:04:11,490 --> 00:04:21,690 if you like, the Moral Majority, the respect for the law, the upholding of obligations and obedience with kind of norms. 36 00:04:22,110 --> 00:04:32,790 So one of my motivations was really to to do something that would allow us to explore the degree to which neo liberal and 37 00:04:32,790 --> 00:04:39,689 neo conservative aspects of new right thinking can decrease the kind of think you can teach them a thought philosophically, 38 00:04:39,690 --> 00:04:48,329 but can you also teach them a part in a way that is relevant to an empirical project and that in some respects as well? 39 00:04:48,330 --> 00:04:59,880 I'm not going to to to show you here, I mean, particularly with regard to David Garland's book and the book by Joe Young, there's actually very. 40 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:07,310 Little reference to any political administrations occasionally get a mention of Reagan or Thatcher, 41 00:05:08,090 --> 00:05:14,629 but there doesn't seem to be any reference to particular policies below economic or social policies. 42 00:05:14,630 --> 00:05:22,700 And there doesn't seem to be really any sort of focus on the kind of individual political actors who may 43 00:05:22,790 --> 00:05:31,160 have been involved in drafting or developing those kind of policies and then putting them into practice. 44 00:05:32,750 --> 00:05:40,310 One of the other things that are part of a slowly come to take more and more is the concept of like modernity, 45 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:47,180 because in some respects you can't know that it's late because we don't know that it's ended or when it's going to end. 46 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,980 So this talk, I gather, is scheduled to end. Is it five or plus? 47 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:55,610 This is what season five thought. So I'm going to guess because it's a five. 48 00:05:55,850 --> 00:05:59,120 You will know he's later on in the talk, we'd like to say, 49 00:05:59,270 --> 00:06:03,680 but we can't say that just because we don't know when it's going to end or even in some respects, 50 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:08,150 hopefully when it starts to happen, we can know that it's not paternity or why it should be late. 51 00:06:08,330 --> 00:06:14,120 Does it strike you that this strikes me as being, well, unfathomable? 52 00:06:14,810 --> 00:06:17,120 One of the other things which I find. 53 00:06:18,180 --> 00:06:26,340 Ought particularly and every time every time I do this talk, I have to go back to Golden's culture, cultural control and just check. 54 00:06:26,790 --> 00:06:31,290 But what I'm about to say is actually right. I did it yesterday and I was right, 55 00:06:32,010 --> 00:06:41,340 is that there's a mention in the index in terms total control of the middle class and there's no mention of the working class. 56 00:06:41,850 --> 00:06:50,450 Now, I'm not suggesting for one moment that all working class people can because of the middle class doing because I suggest that isn't true. 57 00:06:50,460 --> 00:07:01,230 But it does seem strange to talk about a period of North American and British history, sort of the sort of the sixties through to, 58 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:08,370 I guess the early noughties in the late 1990, writing that book without mentioning the working class, 59 00:07:08,670 --> 00:07:19,590 since in some respects they were the, the section of society for whom that period of change would have would have been, 60 00:07:19,780 --> 00:07:24,720 would have felt most dramatic and I suspect probably worse. 61 00:07:25,290 --> 00:07:30,620 So that's the kind of preamble as to what got me thinking about all of these things. 62 00:07:30,630 --> 00:07:37,320 What I want to do now is to look at the way in which those things that you might 63 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:43,400 refer to as Thatcherite social policies were related to quite small society, 64 00:07:43,890 --> 00:07:48,930 particularly poverty, crime. I mean, none of this would be news to any of you, I hope, 65 00:07:49,350 --> 00:07:57,600 but this is the kind of thing for the period that we're most most interested 66 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:03,450 in that comes in 79 leaves in late 1999 and John Major for about seven years. 67 00:08:03,450 --> 00:08:09,360 And at the peak, I suppose in the in the period with John Major's in office, 68 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:22,680 and that's kind of mirrored in both official statistics and the British Congress, which doesn't start at 92, that therefore we have lots of people. 69 00:08:23,310 --> 00:08:29,700 So that's that's well, that's that's in some ways the kind of profile that we've been trying to explore. 70 00:08:30,270 --> 00:08:33,380 And the things that you as a, as a, 71 00:08:33,860 --> 00:08:43,950 a project we've focussed on have been really four big areas of policy and policy change and I'm going to take 72 00:08:43,950 --> 00:08:52,500 them in this order because sequentially this is a chronologically this is the order in which they took place. 73 00:08:53,280 --> 00:09:02,810 So Thatcher comes in 79 and we have a focus on really two big policy areas that we're interested in, economic policy, 74 00:09:02,820 --> 00:09:07,080 which you have to you have to focus on economic policy because winning the 79 75 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:11,160 election was based on sorting out the economic mess that the country was in. 76 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:20,850 Housing policies, that is to say extending the right to buy scheme was essentially about showing up the contrast with working class votes. 77 00:09:21,390 --> 00:09:27,780 We then have a kind of a period in the last year of the second term of office, 78 00:09:28,090 --> 00:09:35,490 the Tories expected to lose the last 83 general elections in the United States in an election manifesto to massively 79 00:09:36,100 --> 00:09:44,339 de-radicalize conservatives referred to as the second term of office from 83 to 87 the lost administrations in this election, 80 00:09:44,340 --> 00:09:49,870 which they won't be able to do much because it's a massively de-radicalize their policies. 81 00:09:49,930 --> 00:09:53,420 Well, you know, there was still a minor strike that took place in 2011. 82 00:09:53,670 --> 00:09:56,100 So it's not as if they were sitting there twiddling their thumbs for years. 83 00:09:56,850 --> 00:10:04,620 Then early, early on, we had in the middle place we have the Social Security Act. 84 00:10:05,850 --> 00:10:14,429 Then we have right towards the end of Thatcher's played in office, changes in education policies particularly well. 85 00:10:14,430 --> 00:10:18,120 There was really we're interested in other ones which relate to compulsory education, 86 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:26,190 but of course there were lots of changes in university funding as well at around about that time. 87 00:10:26,340 --> 00:10:31,770 So let's take these thing in order, starting with the economic changes. 88 00:10:32,610 --> 00:10:37,530 So we have, although this was already starting to happen on the old labour, 89 00:10:37,680 --> 00:10:45,040 for want of a better word, we have a movement away from a commitment to full employment to more. 90 00:10:45,050 --> 00:10:48,540 It's a commitment to full unemployment, as I think it was. 91 00:10:48,540 --> 00:10:51,450 Norman Fowler puts it in a slip of the tongue. 92 00:10:51,750 --> 00:11:02,459 So we have a movement away from, if you like, Keynesian economics towards something that was kind of a bit like monetarism, 93 00:11:02,460 --> 00:11:08,250 but they didn't do monetarism for very long and that really only lasted to allow this to actually walk, 94 00:11:08,250 --> 00:11:17,570 but certainly a move away from the aspiration of full employment and state ownership of. 95 00:11:17,780 --> 00:11:28,070 Numerous different sections of the economy most famously buses, trains, steel, coal, housing, etc. But even Thomas Cook was once state owned. 96 00:11:28,670 --> 00:11:33,890 So we see this kind of massive restructuring as a result of those policies. 97 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:38,450 And it wasn't surprising to know or maybe it will surprise you to learn. 98 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,920 We see a shift in or change in levels of unemployment. 99 00:11:43,790 --> 00:11:47,810 So I think this is a camel's back in folklore. 100 00:11:48,380 --> 00:11:51,620 So you mentioned the stunning sight on two counts of two loves. 101 00:11:51,620 --> 00:12:00,260 So some of them are named walks of life. So we see a huge lump of unemployment, if you like, during such as period. 102 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:05,940 So that is mainly blue collar workers from the Midlands. 103 00:12:06,500 --> 00:12:11,060 So from about 60 miles north of the county upwards. 104 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:24,750 And of course, whilst you have widespread unemployment, the most sharp peak in Major's period is results of what's referred to as the loss of. 105 00:12:25,010 --> 00:12:26,239 So basically the economy overheats, 106 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:37,790 its interest rates hit about 15% and I think also there was a restructuring in the financial services to walk away from them. 107 00:12:38,180 --> 00:12:43,010 Kind of like a pyramid shaped management structure to one that was much flatter. 108 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:51,950 So lots of white collar workers in the southeast are caught up in bad growth and unemployment and lack of them. 109 00:12:52,310 --> 00:12:59,540 I grew up in the south east, a dreadful little commuter town for business, which is still dreadful with a long commute to town. 110 00:13:00,530 --> 00:13:05,359 And I have friends whose parents lost their jobs, and I suspect they were working in the city. 111 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,260 I suspect that was that was driven by part of those kind of processes. 112 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:15,410 So we have an increase in the unemployment rate and of course, a decline. 113 00:13:15,430 --> 00:13:22,940 Now, what this does is this increases levels of economic inequality, but it does it in two ways to begin with, 114 00:13:23,030 --> 00:13:30,649 the increases in levels of economic inequality, that is to say, for the first part of the 1980s, are driven by levels of unemployment. 115 00:13:30,650 --> 00:13:36,020 So more unemployed people equals a greater level of economic inequality. 116 00:13:36,260 --> 00:13:43,200 And that's fairly common because unemployed people get benefits, but they don't get as much as they would do if they were working. 117 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:48,850 It's not a French model where they give you 90% of what you were looking for, particularly at the top. 118 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:56,000 However, levels of economic inequality continue to grow throughout the 1980s and the growth. 119 00:13:56,300 --> 00:14:02,810 The second part of the 1980s is driven knock out levels of economic outlook to not quite levels of unemployment, 120 00:14:02,930 --> 00:14:10,249 but rather by changes in the tax system away from a progressive tax system whereby wealthy people were on the tack, 121 00:14:10,250 --> 00:14:15,950 were taxed more towards a regressive system. What people pay are similar levels of taxation. 122 00:14:15,950 --> 00:14:24,680 So we see the shift from taxation that point K towards VAT too, which is at the point of consumption. 123 00:14:25,490 --> 00:14:30,850 So with that, we then see an increase in levels of economic inequality. 124 00:14:30,860 --> 00:14:38,780 What's in this is the Gini coefficient, which is the standardised measure of economic inequality. 125 00:14:39,260 --> 00:14:51,110 If you if I traced this back using this back to the 1990, the 1920s, which are somewhere over there, 126 00:14:51,410 --> 00:14:55,640 the curve is basically dropping all the way down until you get to 78. 127 00:14:55,940 --> 00:15:02,149 And at that point it starts to come off. I read something in the newspaper yesterday and this morning we've now reached levels of economic 128 00:15:02,150 --> 00:15:09,080 inequality under Theresa may that were similar to those that we experienced with such a success. 129 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,710 But probably now round about here. 130 00:15:13,460 --> 00:15:19,710 They came down on the on the Gordon Brown excuse me came down under Gordon Brown, but not to mention it very much. 131 00:15:19,910 --> 00:15:30,410 Last good. So in a paper which relied on officially reported data. 132 00:15:30,950 --> 00:15:34,790 Well, Jennings at Southampton, I talked to Sean Statham, 133 00:15:34,850 --> 00:15:44,130 and I found a number of this insignificant relationship between unemployment and poverty problems. 134 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:53,900 We're only talking about 45, so we find a strong relationship, busy times to walls between the unemployment rate and poverty crime rate. 135 00:15:53,900 --> 00:15:57,500 That's fairly standard. You get that in lots of different countries. 136 00:15:58,490 --> 00:16:02,570 But what we find using and that's a little thing called rolling windows regression, 137 00:16:02,630 --> 00:16:09,590 which allows you to take, if you like, 25 years worth of data, just move forward one year at a time. 138 00:16:09,590 --> 00:16:17,480 So you've got blocks of 25 and you may think, for example, a 50 year period we find that the coefficient the relationship between unemployment and. 139 00:16:17,550 --> 00:16:21,330 Property rights strikes. The coalition gets small. 140 00:16:23,070 --> 00:16:27,720 So not only was there a relationship, it was a relationship that was becoming stronger. 141 00:16:28,710 --> 00:16:34,860 We find economic inequality just outside levels of significance that would be prepared to accept. 142 00:16:36,270 --> 00:16:42,890 I don't think that means we kind of qualify. It's the unemployment rate that's driving both economic inequality and the property crime rate. 143 00:16:42,900 --> 00:16:47,100 So it is about economic policy doesn't fit inside the model doesn't worry me 144 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:52,890 terribly much to talk about the fact that both being driven by unemployment. 145 00:16:53,730 --> 00:17:00,420 Okay, let's talk about unemployment. Let's look at housing because that's often one that well, you know, well, 146 00:17:00,450 --> 00:17:05,490 six actually what we were interested in things our housing policy and school policies. 147 00:17:05,820 --> 00:17:12,180 People look at me and scratch their heads. My interest in that sort of stuff, you know, what was this anyway? 148 00:17:12,180 --> 00:17:15,060 But then what? It's a housing policy. 149 00:17:15,470 --> 00:17:33,330 Now, the, the not quite the majority, but an incredibly large proportion of houses in the UK, even as late as 1979, were owned by local states. 150 00:17:35,070 --> 00:17:43,410 So I grew up in a in a council house. For example, some local authorities were running what was known as a right to buy scheme. 151 00:17:43,950 --> 00:17:49,740 So in fact, actually, everybody had the right to ask their local authority if they could buy the house. 152 00:17:50,370 --> 00:17:55,560 And the local authority had had the rights to say, no, sorry, we're not selling it to you. 153 00:17:55,800 --> 00:18:01,770 In some places, Birmingham City Council, I think was one of them, were starting to sell off some of their council stock. 154 00:18:01,770 --> 00:18:09,570 In fact, it soon became a Labour Party policy after a fire in either 7775 that that, you know, 155 00:18:09,780 --> 00:18:14,310 people should have the right to buy their council house property and that should be no more. 156 00:18:15,030 --> 00:18:20,610 It's one of the things that Thatcher kind of left off in order to do a number of different things. 157 00:18:20,620 --> 00:18:25,350 First of all, it shored up political support from the actual working class. 158 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:30,810 And secondly, of course, it too eroded the power of local sources. 159 00:18:31,620 --> 00:18:42,060 What happened over time, however, was that this created a residual ization in existing council owned stock, 160 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:51,030 and that happened for a number of different blocks. So the kind of housing the local authorities aren't. 161 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:57,500 Well, they had some totally detached houses on some of the best estates. 162 00:18:57,510 --> 00:19:03,649 There weren't many of them. They had a reasonable amount of semi-detached houses again and some of the better estates. 163 00:19:03,650 --> 00:19:06,320 But, you know, there were more of them, but not terribly many. 164 00:19:06,890 --> 00:19:14,660 And then they had rows and rows and rows, literally rows and rows and rows of low rise terraced houses. 165 00:19:15,020 --> 00:19:24,170 And I think what they also had, particularly in some of the bigger cities like Glasgow and Manchester and some parts of London, 166 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:33,260 and typically in the inner cities like Glasgow, there were corners, lots and lots of high rise flats that nobody really much like living in. 167 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:42,320 So when people when people want to buy a house or when they want to buy accommodation, they want to buy a house, 168 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:51,770 they want to buy a house a deal on its own with a small garden, and they want a bigger garden at the back for the kids to play. 169 00:19:52,070 --> 00:19:59,390 Okay. So that housing stock was semi detached and the fully detached houses that fitted that model. 170 00:19:59,920 --> 00:20:10,130 Wait, you have to remember that New York style loft living in a flat wasn't really very popular in the 1970s and 1980s because we had it was France. 171 00:20:10,610 --> 00:20:20,990 Okay. But France comes in things check. The next set of houses that went in terms of the popularity were the houses. 172 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:27,500 But the ones I grew up in which were kind of small, three bedroom, if you like, modern terraced houses. 173 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,220 Okay. Nothing particularly exciting about them at all. And they went fairly quickly as well. 174 00:20:32,060 --> 00:20:39,290 The stuff that didn't go well was high rise flats or indeed any flats or maisonettes. 175 00:20:39,290 --> 00:20:44,810 And that's partly because Councillor Mason acts particularly designed for disabled or elderly people. 176 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:52,729 And the House of Lords injected into the 1918 Housing Act a subclause that meant the 177 00:20:52,730 --> 00:20:57,890 houses that had been specially adapted were exempt from the right to buy scheme. 178 00:20:58,370 --> 00:21:05,359 So we had a massive selloff of houses, but not randomly higgledy piggledy particular types of housing. 179 00:21:05,360 --> 00:21:13,070 Which particular types of housing didn't go. There was also upon the pump a follow your neighbour effect. 180 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:20,000 So places where lots of people bought houses, lots of people bought houses and places where nobody was buying houses, nobody's buying houses. 181 00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:26,239 And that's probably driven by the fact that we were moving to a situation following economic 182 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,530 changes whereby you had lots of people in one place earn money because there were lots of places, 183 00:21:30,530 --> 00:21:37,940 people somewhere else who were earning money because they were unemployed and therefore couldn't afford to buy their houses. 184 00:21:38,810 --> 00:21:47,090 So we have a, if you like, residual ization of housing over time, at least a sort of containerisation of housing over time. 185 00:21:47,390 --> 00:21:52,970 The other thing that happened just before this in 1977 was a thing called the Homeless Persons Act, 186 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:57,170 which massively extended the definition of homelessness and actually brought 187 00:21:57,290 --> 00:22:03,770 lots more people into local authority house and made them more eligible for it. 188 00:22:04,010 --> 00:22:11,240 So it's a massive growing game of need, if you like, massive acceleration in need or increase in need. 189 00:22:11,570 --> 00:22:18,890 And then if you are turning off of what was there because it was being sold off the receipts from the sales. 190 00:22:19,790 --> 00:22:22,790 Local authorities were not allowed to put back into housing. 191 00:22:23,210 --> 00:22:28,790 So the housing was there. Over time, aid wasn't replenished because the new ones were there. 192 00:22:28,790 --> 00:22:30,980 Theresa may now seems to be rethinking that policy. 193 00:22:31,670 --> 00:22:41,570 And secondly, the housing that was still owned there wasn't as much for the budget to maintain it in terms of the the the condition of the housing. 194 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:53,990 So over time, using data from the British Fire survey which us what it is it's already oh this is a British 195 00:22:53,990 --> 00:22:56,950 time survey these are the owners these are the renters I appreciate and probably says, 196 00:22:57,260 --> 00:23:05,120 well, you see unemployment levels rise and then decline for the people who own the houses, 197 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:10,160 those people who are social renters, which does include people in housing associations, 198 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:14,870 but there wouldn't have been very many of them social renters that they say it really does mean council tenants. 199 00:23:15,410 --> 00:23:18,740 It starts higher and it just keeps on going. 200 00:23:18,770 --> 00:23:24,170 Of course, that's the sort of thinking unemployment we saw earlier, but it doesn't fade out as quickly. 201 00:23:25,490 --> 00:23:31,129 When you look at British social attitudes, data for owners and social assistance for low income households, 202 00:23:31,130 --> 00:23:34,850 you see similar trends adjusted to run down stock. 203 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,660 Question from the British Funds Survey. Short run. 204 00:23:40,430 --> 00:23:43,430 Not particularly discernible, but there's clearly shifts there. 205 00:23:43,790 --> 00:23:51,500 And living close or living in a high turnover area, you see similar trends in terms of renters and. 206 00:23:53,170 --> 00:24:04,300 So housing over time will cancel. Housing stock becomes ritualised and effectively becomes the accommodation of last resort. 207 00:24:04,570 --> 00:24:15,420 For many people, it also, if it starts to become accommodation that has increasing levels of ethnic minority concentrations. 208 00:24:15,430 --> 00:24:20,530 And of course at this point ethnic minorities were amongst the lowest paid in the UK 209 00:24:20,770 --> 00:24:25,360 and it has all sorts of other kind of problems which been documented in the past, 210 00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:28,550 but it's also a definition of criminology. 211 00:24:29,300 --> 00:24:36,850 So think Britishness. What does all of this do to domestic property crime? 212 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,740 Well, because the British concept, it didn't start until 1982. 213 00:24:42,220 --> 00:24:45,410 The government says, well, we can't rely on the British chancellor. 214 00:24:45,490 --> 00:24:57,520 However, the general household survey, which is fair, did ask a question about theft from home in 72, 73 and 80. 215 00:24:58,330 --> 00:25:03,520 And you can see for the owners, this is has it ever happened to you in the past year or has it happened in the past year? 216 00:25:04,060 --> 00:25:13,650 It's a pretty standard, pretty, pretty stable one. About 2% of owners have had something stolen from their houses for the avensis. 217 00:25:13,930 --> 00:25:19,930 So the social renters, it's about about 3% and again pretty staggering when you look, 218 00:25:20,110 --> 00:25:24,040 it's not just whether it has happened or not, but the number of times it has happened. 219 00:25:24,490 --> 00:25:37,899 You see again a fairly standard pattern, so very small number of average thefts from the home values and a small number but back 220 00:25:37,900 --> 00:25:42,550 double back for the social rented as those those differences are statistically significant. 221 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:51,370 But what you can see from that, it's pretty much a steady state. So we have inequality excuse me, but we have steady state inequality. 222 00:25:51,370 --> 00:26:00,459 It's not getting better. It's not getting worse. It's just that when we move to using the British concept of data and of course the British Council, 223 00:26:00,460 --> 00:26:03,910 the data is a much better measure of these sorts of things. 224 00:26:03,910 --> 00:26:09,130 I think that's just one question that we're looking at there from a general household survey. 225 00:26:09,140 --> 00:26:15,790 But women, it's the first months that I think we can have lots of like five or six different domestic property crime type things, 226 00:26:16,120 --> 00:26:19,149 having a shed by between 200 to half broken into and stuff like that. 227 00:26:19,150 --> 00:26:22,990 So those sorts of things we see a different picture. 228 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:33,100 So again, the onus at the top, you can say an increase decrease so that an associates is at the bottom. 229 00:26:33,100 --> 00:26:39,940 I always they start behind the think is there so a lot of difference there in terms of has 230 00:26:39,940 --> 00:26:46,360 it happened to you in the past year but when you look at the counts data at the bottom, 231 00:26:46,390 --> 00:26:59,200 yeah. So this is the average for each group. You see for the owners, it is at about .13 at the start of the run and doesn't change much by the end. 232 00:26:59,380 --> 00:27:06,210 Yeah. Okay. Those you expect fairly fast outlook for the social renters. 233 00:27:06,340 --> 00:27:09,790 It rises and it gets a little bit higher. 234 00:27:09,790 --> 00:27:18,369 But here look at the difference here in the proportions it's almost you're almost twice as likely to be a victim of 235 00:27:18,370 --> 00:27:26,529 some kind of domestic property crime if you are in rented accommodation than if you were an owner of your own house. 236 00:27:26,530 --> 00:27:32,650 And we've explained why that might be the case in the in the BJC article. 237 00:27:33,340 --> 00:27:39,130 So of course we have a complex situation at the beginning of the period because there were some 238 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:45,100 castle housing estates that were used by council housing officers as basically dumping grounds. 239 00:27:45,100 --> 00:27:49,240 The one in Basingstoke was a place for Copley, so I'm glad to say I didn't list, 240 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:55,440 but it was widely known that that was not in state that you wanted to, to, to, to move to. 241 00:27:55,930 --> 00:28:06,820 But we see a concentration over time of social and economic need and then, rather unsurprisingly, a concentration of crime over time as well. 242 00:28:08,910 --> 00:28:16,830 Social Security. So the Social Security system is incredibly complicated, but it is even more complicated. 243 00:28:17,250 --> 00:28:29,219 In the late seventies and early 1980s, I'm always staggered at the sorts of stuff you could get grants or money from the local government for. 244 00:28:29,220 --> 00:28:34,560 When you look back at that stuff, you know what was on offer at that particular time. 245 00:28:34,590 --> 00:28:38,850 It's not to say that it shouldn't be an offer. It's just I'm surprised that there was well, I was prepared to do that. 246 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,450 The Conservative Party knew what they wanted to do, 247 00:28:42,870 --> 00:28:50,670 but the system was so complicated that actually they weren't really able to produce the effects that they wanted. 248 00:28:51,270 --> 00:28:56,400 And so there were a number of different acts early on in the Thatcher administrations, 249 00:28:56,970 --> 00:29:03,660 which were actually rather benign or in fact actually quite generous to welfare recipients. 250 00:29:03,660 --> 00:29:07,860 Partly that's the kind of legislative hangover they were passing to acts. 251 00:29:07,860 --> 00:29:14,190 So they were tidy up acts that had been drafted by civil servants working under labour. 252 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:25,950 But eventually the arsenal of failure to undertake a review of Social Security, which they completed by 1984. 253 00:29:26,190 --> 00:29:29,310 And it's known as the Founder Review. 254 00:29:30,180 --> 00:29:36,990 Not a lot of thought went into that, but I suspect that then became the 1986 Social Security Act. 255 00:29:37,470 --> 00:29:41,880 But that didn't actually become law until the 1st of April 1998. 256 00:29:42,300 --> 00:29:47,910 So there's actually an incredibly long lag in terms of turning around a tanker. 257 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:52,200 Okay. It's not turning around the minute you are turning around the supertanker. 258 00:29:52,500 --> 00:29:57,210 And so it is going to take literally years to understand what's going on, to legislate, 259 00:29:57,390 --> 00:30:02,580 to get that through the House of Parliament and then to actually get that operationally working. 260 00:30:03,090 --> 00:30:12,930 Now, what happens was that although Social Security spending went through the roof throughout the 1980s, there were far more mouths literally to feed. 261 00:30:12,930 --> 00:30:17,309 And so people were getting an increasingly small slice of that pie. 262 00:30:17,310 --> 00:30:23,460 So the actual payments to individual welfare recipients went down. 263 00:30:24,780 --> 00:30:30,749 Now there's evidence to suggest that when you take those social skills payments, 264 00:30:30,750 --> 00:30:41,850 you see increases in crime while in which paper actually relates to Scotland and is based on housing expenditure of the federal expenditures. 265 00:30:41,850 --> 00:30:42,989 It's a bit of a bit of an awful lot, 266 00:30:42,990 --> 00:30:53,280 but it's not a lot coming from the paper that well challenged supermini growth suggests using Social Security spend. 267 00:30:53,580 --> 00:31:00,420 So when you increase Social Security spending, you see a decrease in property crime. 268 00:31:00,420 --> 00:31:08,129 And similarly, when you cut social spending, you see an increase in property crime like we did have a figure if you wanted to spend in order to 269 00:31:08,130 --> 00:31:13,530 reduce one third or you need to spend X pounds or comparable is but it's it's it's in the paper. 270 00:31:14,700 --> 00:31:17,030 So this too was passed. 271 00:31:18,540 --> 00:31:28,460 If what is too strong a word but denuded people in need of further income which would have increased the levels of economic inequality. 272 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:36,480 Also, we would all be driven up politics and our return to education. 273 00:31:37,210 --> 00:31:44,700 So one of the things that Margaret Thatcher and the governments were really, really keen on was choice. 274 00:31:45,450 --> 00:31:50,070 So people were to be given choice in all sorts of different things. 275 00:31:52,020 --> 00:31:58,890 But the problem with choice is that you need some benchmark by which to make a choice. 276 00:31:59,190 --> 00:32:08,070 So you walk into the walk into a local restaurant or sandwich shop, and all they have on sale is ham sandwiches. 277 00:32:08,490 --> 00:32:17,250 You have no choice. You have to buy a ham sample book out, I guess. So they needed to create choice in the education agenda, in the education sector. 278 00:32:17,310 --> 00:32:24,060 And the way to do that was to publish information about how well each school 279 00:32:24,060 --> 00:32:31,200 was doing in terms of getting people through the GCSE set a certain benchmark. 280 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:36,690 Okay. So I think it's a percentage of children at that school with five or more GCSE. 281 00:32:36,690 --> 00:32:40,740 Is it great agency? Is that correct? They created this league table. 282 00:32:41,250 --> 00:32:48,180 And of course, anyone that has been involved in the rest, which is essentially a league table. 283 00:32:48,420 --> 00:32:53,760 Right. Anybody who's involved in the ref knows if a league table, you know, will come forward, but you will come towards the top, 284 00:32:54,540 --> 00:32:59,189 even if there's no chance of getting relegated, it doesn't really matter if you can bottom with the ref in any particular sense. 285 00:32:59,190 --> 00:33:05,010 It's not like somehow you have to go and play. Being an academic in Bolivia or somewhere, you know, you don't get relegated. 286 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:09,180 You just look a bit silly in front of your mates. So you want to get to the top of the table. 287 00:33:09,330 --> 00:33:11,170 So that means there's a whole lot of game playing. 288 00:33:11,190 --> 00:33:16,650 Of course it's all of the game playing and we're good at it, but like it doesn't really know how to massage things. 289 00:33:17,070 --> 00:33:21,520 People will make careers on this stuff and the same thing happens with school they take. 290 00:33:21,570 --> 00:33:23,790 That's not to say that the results falsified, 291 00:33:24,210 --> 00:33:36,210 but rather what happened was that the focus on league tables gave head teachers a ready made purpose to exclude unruly kids. 292 00:33:36,750 --> 00:33:40,139 Because the unruly kids of the ice rink. It's a concern really. 293 00:33:40,140 --> 00:33:41,490 Well, that there are some of those. 294 00:33:42,510 --> 00:33:48,360 The unruly kids are the kids who are probably in the lower school, a lot of students who are causing trouble in schools. 295 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,140 That's why you can throw them out and be, hey, they won't. 296 00:33:52,380 --> 00:33:59,430 I think it's because we've excluded them. So what you see is a massive increase in school exclusions. 297 00:33:59,430 --> 00:34:03,570 Now, prior to the 1980s, I haven't got authority. 298 00:34:04,500 --> 00:34:12,120 There were so few exclusions, legitimate exclusions here, not truancy, so few exclusions in England. 299 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:20,940 Wales, that nobody bothered to count them. The best guesses are that there may have been a few hundred, but nobody really knows for sure. 300 00:34:21,310 --> 00:34:23,790 But there were so few that nobody bothered to count. 301 00:34:24,630 --> 00:34:32,820 We start counting school exclusions in the academic year 1991, and it's around about three or 4000. 302 00:34:32,970 --> 00:34:40,170 In England and Wales, it reaches a peak in 9697 at about 13,000. 303 00:34:40,650 --> 00:34:49,080 There was a massive increase in less than a decade's worth of exclusions from school. 304 00:34:49,620 --> 00:34:54,300 Now, the great thing about sitting kids in school, if you had a teacher, is that they're not your problem. 305 00:34:55,440 --> 00:35:01,650 But kids don't just vanish. They still exist as entities. 306 00:35:02,550 --> 00:35:03,480 Where do they go? 307 00:35:03,870 --> 00:35:17,670 Well, they kind of hang around the local area, which is what's Home Office report number 71 found that actually kids hanging around on the street, 308 00:35:18,030 --> 00:35:23,940 getting into trouble was a major increase of anti-social behaviour, 309 00:35:23,970 --> 00:35:30,870 which is hardly really particularly surprising because they were doing this stuff in school and it wasn't getting recorded by the police. 310 00:35:30,870 --> 00:35:40,409 Nobody was finding out that teachers were caning them, but it wasn't getting into the criminal justice system as soon as they're in a public space, 311 00:35:40,410 --> 00:35:45,180 which of course they would be, because a lot of the school certainly not sit at home because they didn't have Xboxes, anything to play with. 312 00:35:45,450 --> 00:35:52,559 And daytime telly in the 1980s was atrocious. They went out, quite frankly, around that place and got into trouble. 313 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,910 And you can detect that in the British concert. 314 00:35:56,020 --> 00:36:04,350 There's a dramatic jump from 8% of people in 2001. 315 00:36:04,500 --> 00:36:09,480 So the local kids hanging around were a problem, too, 30%. 316 00:36:09,930 --> 00:36:13,319 The teacher that I look today, she's not so well. They must be wrong. 317 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,610 We've changed the question wording. They changed the scale from a four to a five. 318 00:36:17,820 --> 00:36:21,059 They put it in a different part. The question we can find none of those things. None of those things. 319 00:36:21,060 --> 00:36:23,860 It would make you say, oh, they just stuffed up the question. You know, 320 00:36:23,900 --> 00:36:29,610 don't believe the data that seems I think that calls it's three or fourfold almost fourfold increase 321 00:36:29,610 --> 00:36:38,050 then actually seems to be a real thing rather than a mythological artefact of dodgy concepts. 322 00:36:39,190 --> 00:36:46,620 Lots to some anyway. Which ones are they visiting? Now of course, all these kids hanging around was manna from heaven. 323 00:36:46,830 --> 00:36:55,890 For Tony Blair to use that as the flagship or least as the basis for the flagship companies all about, 324 00:36:55,910 --> 00:36:58,560 because that would tackle anti-social behaviour. 325 00:36:59,010 --> 00:37:08,460 And of course we do have, we did have I think an increase associated with this concept of anti-social behaviour. 326 00:37:10,900 --> 00:37:13,330 One of the other things that we've been doing as part of the project, 327 00:37:13,330 --> 00:37:19,899 and this is the size I'm going to show you now, we've kind of superseded by thinking about it slightly differently, 328 00:37:19,900 --> 00:37:27,370 but I wanted to show you them anyway because I think that just quite interesting is to think about the period of change 329 00:37:27,370 --> 00:37:36,910 that we're talking about from 73 to the to the or from legislatively to well into the noughties as a kind of social storm. 330 00:37:37,780 --> 00:37:42,009 This is a term I stole from Dan George when he used to work Oxford. 331 00:37:42,010 --> 00:37:46,780 He now is here in geography. 332 00:37:46,990 --> 00:37:51,850 And so what we try to do is to think about what kind of things a social storm. 333 00:37:52,090 --> 00:37:58,600 So this is, if you like, massive societal disruption of all sorts. 334 00:37:58,720 --> 00:38:05,049 Okay, that might be associated with crime. So we produced a this is game time. 335 00:38:05,050 --> 00:38:10,360 Susan Morgan says a dynamic factor analysis of the retail price index, the level of unemployment, 336 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:15,790 the Gini coefficient, and the rates of suicide, divorce and abortion, 337 00:38:17,050 --> 00:38:21,700 housing repossessions, and the number of children taken into care, which interestingly, 338 00:38:22,300 --> 00:38:28,930 there was data going back to back to 1952, all those things we found. 339 00:38:29,830 --> 00:38:30,970 We've changed the model slightly. 340 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:40,900 We talk about social and an economic storm, but those things, when we put them into the two to a model, explains all of this. 341 00:38:41,620 --> 00:38:41,949 Okay. 342 00:38:41,950 --> 00:38:51,340 So the number of all crimes recorded in British courts over the number of property crimes, the number of all violent forms, the number of victims, 343 00:38:51,460 --> 00:38:59,110 all of them, the number of property forms and the number of sort of property evicted and the number of violence victims as well. 344 00:38:59,110 --> 00:39:09,290 So this thing seems that the social storm, at least for that model, seems to have to all sorts of different levels of crime. 345 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,540 We would say that that wasn't coincidental. 346 00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:19,930 So I talked about, well, showing you the stuff that you do, the crime. 347 00:39:20,260 --> 00:39:26,649 And then that fellow I tried to explain how that might be related to four different areas 348 00:39:26,650 --> 00:39:34,180 of social and economic policies pursued by the governments of the 1980s and early 1990s. 349 00:39:34,180 --> 00:39:38,080 What then happens when crime rates rise? 350 00:39:39,430 --> 00:39:41,560 It's not as if people just sit there and do nothing. 351 00:39:42,190 --> 00:39:57,610 So we find that there is not just a rise in crime, as he has demonstrated, but also there's a rise in the fear of violence arising from, 352 00:39:57,610 --> 00:40:05,349 again, a rise in the fear of crime, which makes up so let's call it a street crime, but not quite in the same axes. 353 00:40:05,350 --> 00:40:10,480 But you can say that the fear of crime tracks pretty closely the rise of crime. 354 00:40:11,860 --> 00:40:20,620 What we also have, which I think is interesting, but I'm not sure many other people have necessarily thought about this, 355 00:40:20,620 --> 00:40:24,210 is we have an increase in punitive opinion now. 356 00:40:24,580 --> 00:40:32,350 We take it out of debt. That's it for this one because when you put in the death penalty, so the model you mention is punitive, 357 00:40:32,350 --> 00:40:44,200 let's just kind of flat down because over time in the UK, people have been becoming less and less convinced the death penalty is appropriate. 358 00:40:44,710 --> 00:40:48,430 Interestingly, we've used the British social attitudes data, which is book. 359 00:40:48,580 --> 00:40:55,360 So what we've done there is a genuine vulture effect, the last straw, I think you might say, around about 20 years. 360 00:40:56,080 --> 00:41:06,760 So support for the death comes. It's coming down this ten fold day and then it goes up and then it comes down and it takes about 361 00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:12,910 20 years to get it down again to where it was before turning culture was abducted and murdered. 362 00:41:13,240 --> 00:41:17,319 So you let restrict out the death penalty from this. 363 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:24,640 And you can see that there is a fairly strong relationship to a punitive opinion such as the Dark Line and the Coorong, 364 00:41:24,700 --> 00:41:30,280 which is the Dutch one that's been published in a paper in government. 365 00:41:32,830 --> 00:41:38,110 So increase in crime, increase in fear of crime, increase in punitive measures. 366 00:41:38,110 --> 00:41:45,250 We've also tracked in the Government's paper an increase in the attention devoted to law and order in the Queen's Speech. 367 00:41:45,610 --> 00:41:52,239 So the whole of the scientists who calculate the percentage of the Queen's Speech is always about 1500 words. 368 00:41:52,240 --> 00:42:00,280 They calculate percentage of outputs related to law and order limits criminal law, administrative law, housing, all those sorts of different things. 369 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:05,140 And you can see a relationship between what the Queen talks about when she's given that Queen's speech, 370 00:42:05,260 --> 00:42:08,740 if she is doing what it says she feels if you take off. 371 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,030 The Queen doing it. She told me that the Bible says, one son says, find them up. 372 00:42:13,030 --> 00:42:25,810 And so in the case and we can find a relationship between the, let's say, executive, legislative partner, the expressed executive legislation, 373 00:42:25,930 --> 00:42:36,870 especially the Queen's Speech, and finally also finds that in hands off as well, you can search hands off from sunlight 1841 to mostly March 2007. 374 00:42:36,900 --> 00:42:42,940 It just stops the problem. So why should stop? Maybe they just haven't got any further movement at the moment. 375 00:42:42,940 --> 00:42:48,490 But you can you can you can track all these trends and lots of different concerns as well. 376 00:42:49,870 --> 00:42:58,659 So what happens, of course, is that we see, Michael, how he rather unexpectedly he gets ahead, becomes home secretary. 377 00:42:58,660 --> 00:43:07,030 He talks up for Michael Howard had never spoken about fight in the House of Commons at all. 378 00:43:07,870 --> 00:43:13,510 And he we interviewed him the past of the project. 379 00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:24,970 He told us that he was sat down by the senior civil servants at the home office and said, look, it's going to go up 5% per annum each year. 380 00:43:25,870 --> 00:43:32,620 Don't raise expectations, don't say you're going to get it down, just hold on and try not to get fired. 381 00:43:32,860 --> 00:43:38,500 In those days, the Home Office had a Ministry of Justice that were separate entities. 382 00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:44,379 I think it's interesting to think that actually we see far fewer home secretaries have 383 00:43:44,380 --> 00:43:48,750 to resign or get sacked since the Ministry of Justice got taken out of the Home Office. 384 00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:55,330 I don't know that that's a coincidence. So I just wondered, is the Minister of Justice for Home settling the fate of the Home Office? 385 00:43:55,570 --> 00:43:58,389 Let me try to administer. Justice was, in some respects a bit of a hostage to fortune. 386 00:43:58,390 --> 00:44:04,420 It could have it could all go horribly wrong and cause them to Tony to resign. 387 00:44:04,430 --> 00:44:12,520 And for it was after Eddie Howe talks tough on crime as at 27 or 28 point list 388 00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:17,470 of things that he's going to do well at the Conservative Party conferences. 389 00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:29,770 And just by saying things like prison works, we have an increase in receptions into prison, which is probably because that's a is on hypothesising. 390 00:44:29,770 --> 00:44:35,410 This one last question. I thought what he says it was supposed to be was and so for the seven more people to prison, 391 00:44:35,620 --> 00:44:41,199 we also have rises or increases in the average prison sentence length, 392 00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:47,229 which appears to be due to strict enforcement of time and mandatory minimum sentences. 393 00:44:47,230 --> 00:44:51,490 And the prison population grows quite, quite dramatically. 394 00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,480 Now, we already have one clock for Carolyn. 395 00:44:55,660 --> 00:45:04,400 Our foot is another. This is a slide which is in the book and the can't read should be good for science to deliver for this guy. 396 00:45:04,460 --> 00:45:15,770 But what I've done here and you'll have to take a good it I see it these columns for years and the years of 397 00:45:15,790 --> 00:45:21,980 different representing different acts so that the years of different acts were passed into legislation centre. 398 00:45:22,150 --> 00:45:28,059 On the very far left we have the 1982 Criminal Justice Act and Case the Prosecution of 399 00:45:28,060 --> 00:45:33,810 Offenders and Drug Trafficking Offences Act in 86 of the Three Criminal Justice Act. 400 00:45:33,820 --> 00:45:38,260 And then somebody saying in the early nineties, oh, 401 00:45:38,340 --> 00:45:41,410 was not going to get this one going to be another criminal justice act so long the minute 402 00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:49,420 buses with so 8591 and 93 of all criminal justice act but not before we get four to them. 403 00:45:49,420 --> 00:45:52,480 So it's called the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act. 404 00:45:53,020 --> 00:46:04,839 Just for change. Then we have the really Modern Handbook of Criminal Proceeds and Investigation Act in 96 Crimes Sentences 405 00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:12,160 Act passed in the dying days of John Major's administration in 97 and the latest block disorder at that. 406 00:46:13,540 --> 00:46:19,540 The top half of the table is listed up here. 407 00:46:21,310 --> 00:46:25,600 Charles attempts, if you like, to decrease primitiveness. 408 00:46:25,720 --> 00:46:29,800 So if you like not to shine a light on to try to be nice to people. 409 00:46:30,130 --> 00:46:36,820 Okay. So we see attempts in the IOC to limit the use of imprisonment, which actually works. 410 00:46:37,060 --> 00:46:42,170 When Thatcher came into office, the daily prison count was 39,000. 411 00:46:42,190 --> 00:46:46,420 Within a couple of years, an adult to about 37,000. 412 00:46:46,810 --> 00:46:50,860 Jim Many people think to the 1982 Criminal Justice Act to be safe. 413 00:46:51,580 --> 00:47:01,809 People have other accounts that. We have a price increase lots of suspects and limits to the police force that's also pulled out of this 414 00:47:01,810 --> 00:47:09,969 glass box here in some respects represents a period during which this looks like none of these you know, 415 00:47:09,970 --> 00:47:17,050 if if you did this that way, you'd probably find something similar, a period during which there's a there's attempts to reduce the punitive aspects 416 00:47:17,230 --> 00:47:21,160 also of the punitive aspects of the criminal justice system that stops here. 417 00:47:21,870 --> 00:47:29,920 I think also on this this big black line is simply to signify the point at which Thatcher is no longer in power. 418 00:47:31,720 --> 00:47:39,520 And we see the highlight of the 91 act, which would have taken some time to draft the dark box, 419 00:47:40,990 --> 00:47:50,420 which on some sites has written in red empty represents the fact that all of us were deputed to not. 420 00:47:51,100 --> 00:47:54,969 What we're doing, you can talk about is not permissiveness. Try not to be punitive. 421 00:47:54,970 --> 00:48:00,970 I'm not sure what the synonym for legal that costs stops around about. 422 00:48:01,180 --> 00:48:10,930 Yeah. Now the bottom half the table represents increases in incidence and the gang of six represent the things that will happening. 423 00:48:10,930 --> 00:48:18,129 That is just therefore not to suggest that we didn't see that sense of being punitive at that time, 424 00:48:18,130 --> 00:48:25,000 but over time there is an increasing number of them, which is what the dashed line represents. 425 00:48:25,270 --> 00:48:37,090 So we are seeing simultaneously, if you like, a moving away from being not punitive. 426 00:48:38,350 --> 00:48:48,639 That term doesn't make it is possible and simultaneously an increase towards being more punitive then lots of different whites. 427 00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:54,430 So if you like an attempt to to find new ways of smacking more or bottoms okay. 428 00:48:56,470 --> 00:49:01,960 Which I think is kind of interesting in its in itself. 429 00:49:03,340 --> 00:49:13,270 So what do the Labour Party do presented with all of this and the memory of the 83 general election? 430 00:49:13,930 --> 00:49:19,200 They move to the political process starts fairly often, fairly early on. 431 00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:30,040 So it's really up to Neil Kinnock but really comes to a head with Tony Blair and he's fighting this match of tough on crime, 432 00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:33,910 tough on the causes of crime. We have a focus on young offenders. 433 00:49:35,260 --> 00:49:41,530 I want to do the debates, which that's not related to the school exclusions that we discussed earlier. 434 00:49:41,650 --> 00:49:45,790 Just, you know, people associated with school are under the age of 16. 435 00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:53,170 And, of course, Labour didn't oppose the crime sentences, despite the fact that there were people actually, quote, 436 00:49:53,680 --> 00:50:04,120 draconian measures in it, which they may at other points have elected to at least discuss rather than just acquiescing. 437 00:50:05,500 --> 00:50:14,410 Wendy Carlisle Labour have to do something about crime, they have to do something about it for a number of reasons. 438 00:50:14,710 --> 00:50:17,980 The crime place in 94. They've come in in 97. 439 00:50:18,370 --> 00:50:23,320 It takes a while for the Home Office to turn around those numbers and turn them out. 440 00:50:23,770 --> 00:50:34,900 So the initial inkling of a crime drop took several years actually to be widely recognised 441 00:50:35,260 --> 00:50:42,370 and of course about 20 years for the public to notice that the control had happened. 442 00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:49,930 So Labour needed to do something about it because it was still a problem, almost perceived to be a problem. 443 00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:55,299 They also needed to do something about crime because they didn't want to be accused 444 00:50:55,300 --> 00:51:01,600 of being soft on crime and left to later left equally had said tree huggers. 445 00:51:02,140 --> 00:51:09,610 So they had to do something about finally hatch with void being seen to have gone soft on crime. 446 00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:20,800 Okay, I'll talk a little so enough, but I'm going to persist at least a few more slots, so I'll move now towards. 447 00:51:21,820 --> 00:51:28,350 Okay. So, I mean, well, the criminologist saw this in the social sciences, like it or not. 448 00:51:28,590 --> 00:51:37,790 I think there's enough evidence. I'm thinking from political science that Thatcherism represented a mix of both liberalism and neoconservatism. 449 00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,550 And in some times these things pulled apart. 450 00:51:42,150 --> 00:51:48,270 So somebody trading, for example, some news for those of you who want to launch in the 1980s were tediously dull. 451 00:51:48,300 --> 00:51:52,620 You couldn't buy a thing unless it was about to go off perishable goods so you could buy milk and eggs. 452 00:51:52,910 --> 00:52:02,940 And that was about it. Everything else that the libertarian right, the neoliberals wanted to change some of the trading laws, 453 00:52:03,240 --> 00:52:06,420 but none of the some of the trade rules so that we could throw stuff to people. 454 00:52:06,420 --> 00:52:14,160 By the day of the week, you got all these fixed overhead costs, you got Woolworth's shut up for no good reason for people stuff. 455 00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:20,310 The neoconservatives, on the other hand, thought that was absolutely appalling. 456 00:52:20,340 --> 00:52:25,440 The song is a special letter going to church and praying for Margaret Thatcher's next election. 457 00:52:25,620 --> 00:52:30,180 So I just had a post. So there were times when the neo liberals and the neo conservatives face different ways. 458 00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:36,959 Same thing happens for soft judges. Well, if you like the cross hairs a line, then it was very strong. 459 00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:45,210 And there was there was a reason for for the effort for pursuing the same agenda when the neoliberals and the neo conservatives, 460 00:52:45,420 --> 00:52:49,260 as it were, sort of agreed on the vanities. 461 00:52:50,400 --> 00:53:02,219 Now, I think that in some respects, a lot of the changes brought about by the Conservative government, the 1980s, 462 00:53:02,220 --> 00:53:08,250 which were, if you like, neo liberal or mainly neo liberal, it's not just the cold clear the water between the two. 463 00:53:08,610 --> 00:53:14,430 Was it a mainly neo liberal about housing, about employment, about Social Security? 464 00:53:15,150 --> 00:53:22,380 Were the factors which helped contribute to the rising crime, particularly, for example, unemployment for if not the rises in crime, 465 00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:29,850 then the concentration of crime amongst particular social sections, which is what you get with housing policy changes. 466 00:53:31,020 --> 00:53:36,390 You then see a rise in fear and punitive loss amongst the general population, 467 00:53:37,230 --> 00:53:48,010 which is latched on to by particular politicians who political scientists have a term for which is policy entrepreneurs. 468 00:53:48,030 --> 00:53:54,990 So if you like Howard and Blair were policy entrepreneurs in terms of the crime or criminal justice agenda, 469 00:53:55,500 --> 00:54:04,740 and they articulate solutions and we enter that, if you like, an arms race of nastiness between those as opposed to individuals in particular. 470 00:54:05,070 --> 00:54:12,360 But generally that leads to increased levels of punitive mass number. 471 00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:23,100 The side that you couldn't see or complete over time, which resulted in actually are more than suggests crime falling down. 472 00:54:23,910 --> 00:54:31,200 So the things in our model for property crime like the credit card increases, 473 00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:38,490 portfolio increases and subsequent decreases decreases of the economy and the incarceration rates. 474 00:54:38,940 --> 00:54:47,700 So actually sending more people to prison did help reduce crime, but we weren't just sending more people to prison. 475 00:54:48,660 --> 00:54:54,209 We started off sending. Well, when Margaret Thatcher came in, just under 40,000 people in prison in one day, 476 00:54:54,210 --> 00:55:05,160 that rose to about 46,000 on any one day by the time Michael Howard came into office to write these figures down and may not be absolutely correct, 477 00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:15,240 but they're now at around about 87,000 per day in England and Wales, but never seven or 8000 in Scotland, I believe. 478 00:55:15,810 --> 00:55:17,850 So this isn't just prison works. 479 00:55:18,180 --> 00:55:26,610 This is massively increasing the number of people, doubling the number of people in any one day that you are holding in prison. 480 00:55:26,620 --> 00:55:28,460 Now, I think it's pretty harsh. 481 00:55:28,470 --> 00:55:38,610 I can't think of very much in terms of social policy that if you didn't double wouldn't have to some discernible impact. 482 00:55:38,970 --> 00:55:45,990 So if you double the number of GP or nurses, that's going to have some impact on health care policy. 483 00:55:45,990 --> 00:55:51,600 That's Labour had a waiting time watching this drive in the late 1990s, 484 00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:55,700 but basically everybody got as much over time as they wanted to try and bring down quite 485 00:55:55,710 --> 00:56:02,280 soon that if you increased the number of security guards working in particular devices, 486 00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:07,709 that's going to have some kind of impact. If you doubled the number of teachers that you have, that would have some kind of impact. 487 00:56:07,710 --> 00:56:09,780 Might take you 15 or 16 years to spot that. 488 00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:17,190 But doubling things is going to do something to whatever it is that you're you're, you know, the kind of key output. 489 00:56:17,460 --> 00:56:20,310 So it isn't to suggest that prison works, but rather. 490 00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:27,580 If all you care about is reducing crime and no other interests in any of the social and economic policies, 491 00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:32,890 then sending an awful lot of people to prison. He's going to do something to you or your crime, right? 492 00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:37,960 Of course, there are huge consequences socially and for the individuals involved. 493 00:56:38,230 --> 00:56:40,540 If you go to court, if you go down that route. 494 00:56:41,860 --> 00:56:50,380 So I would argue that Thatcher did have a legacy, but he does have a legacy for the criminal justice system and crime. 495 00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:56,030 We saw huge increases in crime throughout the eighties and nineties. 496 00:56:56,050 --> 00:57:02,920 We had changes in public sentiments about crime and about the way in which we should respond to crime. 497 00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:10,600 And then we had a clearly toughened criminal justice system as a response to that. 498 00:57:10,990 --> 00:57:16,450 We have the creation of a new consensus on crime and how we should treat offenders. 499 00:57:17,260 --> 00:57:24,550 But as I think I have repeatedly said, neo liberalism is only part of that story in some respects. 500 00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:34,870 You need the kind of neo conservative elements, as well as with other social attitudes, which we model this kind of need plans. 501 00:57:35,140 --> 00:57:41,799 We need these New Labour governments to come along and basically accept and in some 502 00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:47,380 respects deepen the Thatcherite settlement for this stuff to pass and purchase. 503 00:57:48,730 --> 00:57:53,080 Well, offside is to tell you about another. 504 00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:56,770 It's also policies which will generally be soft in a few months time. 505 00:57:58,570 --> 00:58:05,110 We're going to be analysing the influence on crime amongst two first cohort. 506 00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:08,650 So the UK has a number of different first cohorts. 507 00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:16,760 The first was in 1946 called the 46th birth cohort, which you can't actually really get access to anymore because it's got so much medical data. 508 00:58:17,500 --> 00:58:24,220 The next one is the 58 first cohort, the National Child Development Study. 509 00:58:24,550 --> 00:58:35,650 All of these were designed to be 12 years apart. The one that we're particularly interested in is what's called the birth cohort study 1470, which, 510 00:58:35,650 --> 00:58:40,630 if you like, of Thatcher's children, at least these couples in some respects, all of us as children. 511 00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:49,330 There should have been another birth cohort in 1982, but I guess she tells me that that conference. 512 00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:55,390 And then, of course, we have the Millennium Cohort much, much more recently. 513 00:58:55,390 --> 00:59:00,040 So we explore the extent to which individuals in those cohorts is about. 514 00:59:00,520 --> 00:59:05,349 There were about 17,000 births in those two cohorts. 515 00:59:05,350 --> 00:59:12,430 And I think I followed up the question which economic policy statement, the social policies that we have discussed. 516 00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:18,590 Can be found, 11 of them. In fact, the next phase of the crime can be found amongst those those groups. 517 00:59:19,370 --> 00:59:26,770 We're also going to run a survey in Chicago to assess the relevance of Thatcherite ideologies. 518 00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:34,400 Today we've got 236 on about a school of law they will be associated with. 519 00:59:34,550 --> 00:59:38,690 That's over a two year research assistant post. 520 00:59:39,020 --> 00:59:46,460 All of which should be advertised by soon, since the paperwork's sort of lost because I like doing it because it's kind of fun. 521 00:59:46,850 --> 00:59:50,780 We're going to make a short film for Teacher first. Okay. 522 00:59:51,020 --> 00:59:59,280 Thank you very much. Thank you very much.