1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:03,240 All right. Good evening, everybody. So nice to see a lot of people here. 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:10,380 Welcome to the guest lecture, which is part of the module introductions to study, design and research. 3 00:00:10,700 --> 00:00:16,320 Welcome. And then I'd like to introduce Professor Paul Aviat, 4 00:00:16,470 --> 00:00:21,000 who is Professor of Behavioural Medicine in the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, 5 00:00:22,590 --> 00:00:29,020 and he's going to talk to us today about how we change behaviour and what each school thinks about it. 6 00:00:30,420 --> 00:00:33,840 Thank you. Okay. Hello everybody. 7 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:40,530 Thanks for coming along today. And if you want to ask me things as we go, that's okay too. 8 00:00:40,770 --> 00:00:44,070 Otherwise, I will try and leave some time for questions at the end as well. 9 00:00:45,390 --> 00:00:49,170 Right. So just to say, we do work with commercial companies. 10 00:00:49,170 --> 00:00:53,450 We have no personal financial entanglement with these companies. 11 00:00:53,510 --> 00:00:59,010 That was we don't profit from this work, but we do work with them now. 12 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,659 When my mum was at school, this was in the 1940s. 13 00:01:03,660 --> 00:01:11,790 And what was that in the girls grammar school? She On the wall of the classroom, it was this kind of map, a map of the British Empire. 14 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:18,059 And she used to look up at that and feel terribly proud about, you know, look, 15 00:01:18,060 --> 00:01:22,740 there's little old Britain here and it kind of has got all that sort of land. 16 00:01:23,130 --> 00:01:29,520 And we wouldn't necessarily look at that sort of map today with that kind of ethos. 17 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:37,830 But back in the 1940s, that's how people looked at it. This is a map of contemporary British colonisation. 18 00:01:38,010 --> 00:01:42,120 I don't know if any of you can guess what it is and I'll tell you about it in a moment. 19 00:01:42,780 --> 00:01:47,370 But while we do, I want to just tell you a story. I was giving a public lecture in Oxford. 20 00:01:47,370 --> 00:01:49,380 It was about smoking, smoking cessation. 21 00:01:50,340 --> 00:01:56,850 And as part of that, I went to Radio Oxford and was chatting about the lecture to the presenter and what it was about. 22 00:01:56,850 --> 00:02:01,409 And we had one of our patients, as we tend to call them, in our smoking cessation research, 23 00:02:01,410 --> 00:02:08,190 come along and talk through what it was that they, you know, why did you suddenly stop smoking? 24 00:02:08,190 --> 00:02:09,720 This is a man who'd had cancer. 25 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:16,800 And of course, what you said to me was, you know, what made the difference was, you know, getting the support from the nurse, using the medication. 26 00:02:17,610 --> 00:02:23,610 But when the presenter asked him, you know, so you've tried to stop smoking before, what was it that made the difference this time? 27 00:02:23,610 --> 00:02:27,060 He said, This time I really wanted it. 28 00:02:27,930 --> 00:02:33,479 And that he's not alone in that. If you talk to people who stop smoking, they say, Well, yes, of course, 29 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:39,390 I tried to stop lots of times before, but the last time was the time that I really wanted it. 30 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:46,260 And that brings me back to this map, because I don't know if you know, 31 00:02:46,260 --> 00:02:53,760 but all the countries coloured out of blue or turquoise have all taken the British TV show The X Factor. 32 00:02:54,510 --> 00:02:55,770 We can all be very proud. 33 00:02:57,390 --> 00:03:07,260 So and that reminded me of that when that patient said that because and actually what happens in the early rounds of X Factor, 34 00:03:07,260 --> 00:03:13,559 I used to watch it with my kids because they were young teenagers once and they said, you know, everybody watches it. 35 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:20,549 So we all watched it. And what they what you see in the early rounds is the hopeful presenters come along and they say to, 36 00:03:20,550 --> 00:03:25,620 you know, whoever was presenting and say, you know, I really want this, I really want this. 37 00:03:26,010 --> 00:03:30,630 And when they open their mouths to sing, you realise that wanting it is not always enough. 38 00:03:33,660 --> 00:03:39,150 And that's really the lesson that we learn from science of behaviour change. 39 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,860 We think that motivation is the main story involved. 40 00:03:43,950 --> 00:03:53,249 It's that that drives people onwards. It's the story so kind of leitmotif of our society and we might ask ourselves if we were clever sociologists, 41 00:03:53,250 --> 00:03:55,230 we might say, Well, where does that belief come from? 42 00:03:55,800 --> 00:04:03,959 Maybe it's from the kind of as a clever sociologist who might want to wonder whether this belief that wanting 43 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:11,550 it is enough is sort of sustains and reflects the kind of neoliberal economic society that we live in. 44 00:04:12,300 --> 00:04:18,060 You know, people will say, well, it was all out there for you, but you didn't want it enough. 45 00:04:18,660 --> 00:04:22,180 And maybe we can speculate that, but we're not clever sociologists. 46 00:04:22,180 --> 00:04:28,169 So I'm going to move on and go back to our story and remind you about the British cycling team, 47 00:04:28,170 --> 00:04:34,740 because they've come from nowhere to world beaters over the last few years, last ten years or so. 48 00:04:35,280 --> 00:04:42,150 And why was that? Well, it was the law of aggregate marginal gains, as David Brailsford said. 49 00:04:42,540 --> 00:04:48,720 He said, in other words, if we can make small improvements in every aspect of our preparation, 50 00:04:49,020 --> 00:04:52,860 then we can get the world championship and the Olympic medals and so on. 51 00:04:52,860 --> 00:04:57,989 And so it proved and the science of understanding behaviour change is very much like that. 52 00:04:57,990 --> 00:05:07,350 We can learn to make small. I could get gains across a range of things and not rely on this belief that you've got to really want it to achieve it, 53 00:05:07,650 --> 00:05:12,170 because that's not what science tells us. All right. 54 00:05:12,180 --> 00:05:19,470 So I'm going to tell you now about one of our trials. And in a way, I'm just going to recreate this trial here. 55 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:24,810 This is a trial from the 1970s. It was published in 1980, 1979. 56 00:05:25,140 --> 00:05:29,100 It's the citation classic, meaning it's been cited more than a thousand times. 57 00:05:31,190 --> 00:05:32,960 And in this trial, what doctors. 58 00:05:33,500 --> 00:05:42,050 What happened was researchers went along to the waiting room full of patients waiting to see a GP and they recruited them into a study. 59 00:05:42,740 --> 00:05:46,790 And then they went to see the doctor and the doctor. These were all people who smoked. 60 00:05:46,790 --> 00:05:51,200 And the doctor said, Either you really ought to stop smoking, it's terribly bad for you, or they didn't. 61 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:56,930 And then when they were followed up a year later and Lo, it showed that that sort of thing was effective. 62 00:05:58,190 --> 00:06:01,580 Now, what we did in this trial was went to recreate it. 63 00:06:01,910 --> 00:06:07,430 And you can ask yourselves and when I present this to GP's they say to me, well why, why did you do that? 64 00:06:07,430 --> 00:06:15,170 Really, because you're just putting the responsibility. So in our trial we did it on weight loss for people who were overweight. 65 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,750 I said, You're just putting the responsibility on society. Now, I wanted to. 66 00:06:19,940 --> 00:06:24,350 It made me think as I looked at this 1970s trial about my life. 67 00:06:24,950 --> 00:06:32,540 So I was born in the 1960s and lived and grew up through the 1970s, and that's where I spent most of my time. 68 00:06:32,540 --> 00:06:36,290 That was my primary school there at the bottom. Is this a pointer? 69 00:06:36,740 --> 00:06:40,790 It doesn't work. It doesn't work on there. That's that's my primary school. 70 00:06:41,030 --> 00:06:48,650 I was going across the road here. There's a little corner shop and we used to go out after school if we had some money and buy some sweets. 71 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:55,970 One of the things that we used to really love to buy were these, and these were not banned until the 1980s. 72 00:06:57,260 --> 00:07:03,350 This is 1970s. TV famous actor Richard Burton talking to Michael Parkinson. 73 00:07:03,350 --> 00:07:07,309 Those who are much younger and live in Britain will recognise him. 74 00:07:07,310 --> 00:07:10,370 Now he sells insurance for funerals. 75 00:07:11,750 --> 00:07:17,080 But the thing that you might notice on here is that he's smoking away. 76 00:07:17,090 --> 00:07:21,380 BBC One Prime Time TV The time when there were only three channels on TV. 77 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,520 Lots of people used to watch this show and there is smoking. 78 00:07:25,700 --> 00:07:30,050 Unthinkable today. Life has completely and radically changed. 79 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:39,620 We've got to a situation that looks like this where you queue for tobacco that sold in ugly plain packets behind closed doors. 80 00:07:39,860 --> 00:07:45,530 How did we go from a society where smoking was normal to one that was looking like this? 81 00:07:46,250 --> 00:07:51,230 And how, for that matter, might we get to a society that also looks like that? 82 00:07:52,790 --> 00:08:01,069 Well, I want to suggest that part of the rationale for these kind of far reaching reforms that encroach 83 00:08:01,070 --> 00:08:07,010 on personal freedom is the fact that we all accept that smoking is terribly bad for us. 84 00:08:07,250 --> 00:08:14,450 And if we can accept that being overweight is also bad for us and the things that we might be doing about it personally that might 85 00:08:14,450 --> 00:08:24,620 support and sustain those rather more wide ranging types of policy changes that I think we need to see in the world of tackling people, 86 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:29,310 tackling obesity as a problem. Right. 87 00:08:29,510 --> 00:08:37,010 So let me tell you now about the trial itself. So we we we did exactly what they did back in the 1970s. 88 00:08:37,010 --> 00:08:44,299 We replicated their methods more or less entirely. And we went along to waiting rooms. 89 00:08:44,300 --> 00:08:52,940 We waited and measured people. And if they had a BMI over 30 or 25, we tried to enrol them in their trial and then they went to see the doctor. 90 00:08:53,150 --> 00:08:54,830 And the doctor did one of two things. 91 00:08:54,830 --> 00:09:01,370 Either they said at the end of they treated them for their sort of a cough, whatever it was they saw the doctor for. 92 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:07,370 At the end of that, they said the doctor said, well, you know, in the control condition, 93 00:09:07,370 --> 00:09:11,270 the doctor said it really helped your health if you could lose some weight. 94 00:09:12,050 --> 00:09:19,430 So why don't you give that a go, something like that. And in the active intervention, they did three things high. 95 00:09:20,180 --> 00:09:23,149 They they said, you know, 96 00:09:23,150 --> 00:09:31,610 the best way to lose weight is to go along to something like Slimming World or Weight Watchers and that's available free on the NHS. 97 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:37,600 Why not give it a go? And then they said and then the person would go, Yeah, okay. 98 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:43,190 And then they walk and the doctor would say, Great, what I want you to do is take this form, 99 00:09:43,340 --> 00:09:48,560 give it back to the person who weighed you and then book you into a support group right now. 100 00:09:49,250 --> 00:09:55,040 But come and see me again. That's the third part. Come and see me again in a few weeks, because I know it's tough to lose weight. 101 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,969 I want to see how you getting on. So that's what we asked them to do. 102 00:09:58,970 --> 00:10:03,170 And the idea was that in both cases, the doctor could do this within 30 seconds. 103 00:10:03,530 --> 00:10:12,950 The reason one of the reasons, many reasons that doctors say they don't talk to people about being overweight is because it takes too long. 104 00:10:12,950 --> 00:10:20,599 So we aimed for this to be done in 30 seconds. What I explain to you is what happened now? 105 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:26,450 Why did we do that? Well, we did it. When you design interventions, you do it for a number of reasons. 106 00:10:26,450 --> 00:10:29,840 But one of the things that you meant to do is look at what if? 107 00:10:30,070 --> 00:10:33,280 Of things that we know already. And so we've done this review already. 108 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:39,250 This was on smoking, for which there are now lots and lots of trials of these what's called brief interventions. 109 00:10:39,910 --> 00:10:44,319 And we contrast the two types of interventions, one where the doctor said, you know, 110 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:51,700 smoking's really terrible for you but will help your health if you gave up with the ones where they said and there's lots of great ways to give it up, 111 00:10:51,820 --> 00:10:56,080 why not try one of them? So and it turns out that that second one, 112 00:10:56,080 --> 00:11:04,540 that offering support why actually is more effective in motivating people to have a go and supporting them to stop smoking. 113 00:11:06,310 --> 00:11:11,560 The second thing we did was the doctor said, take this form outside and we'll book you into a clinic. 114 00:11:11,560 --> 00:11:17,110 Right now, what most people will say to me is I'll say, you know, 115 00:11:17,110 --> 00:11:23,380 if a person's not prepared to go and book their own appointment simply by ringing up a weight loss program, 116 00:11:23,590 --> 00:11:27,010 there is no way they are motivated enough to lose weight. 117 00:11:27,610 --> 00:11:33,159 This is a trial of actually smoking cessation now, not our trial, 118 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:40,540 but the reason we involved this was based on this sort of study where actually people were randomised to two conditions, 119 00:11:40,540 --> 00:11:47,230 one where the patient, the doctor said Great, you want to stop smoking, go and ring the quit line, that's that condition. 120 00:11:47,500 --> 00:11:50,500 Or the doctor said, It's great, you want to stop smoking. 121 00:11:50,500 --> 00:11:57,760 I'll get the Quitline to call you. And this is looking at the proportion of people that enrolled in a treatment program to help them stop smoking. 122 00:11:58,060 --> 00:12:05,260 And it's much higher in that second condition. And thirdly, we said, come and see me again soon. 123 00:12:05,530 --> 00:12:10,540 And that's because lots of reasons to think that just somehow being responsible to 124 00:12:10,540 --> 00:12:16,360 another person for what you're about to do boosts your motivation and keeps you on track. 125 00:12:17,290 --> 00:12:20,349 All right. So we went to all of these different surgeries. 126 00:12:20,350 --> 00:12:27,760 There were 137 different doctors involved in the trial, each of them delivering these brief interventions, much as I've told you. 127 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:32,859 And we weighed and measured 8403 people. 128 00:12:32,860 --> 00:12:40,120 That's that lot. And this group here, about a third of them had a BMI in our category, which we classified as obese. 129 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:46,569 We didn't use that word when talking to people and we asked them to take part. 130 00:12:46,570 --> 00:12:51,910 And the people in blue said, no, thank you very much. And all of the rest said, Yeah, I'll take part. 131 00:12:52,300 --> 00:12:58,360 And we excluded that group, doctors excluded that group, and we enrolled that group. 132 00:12:59,230 --> 00:13:06,340 And I'll just press on, except to say that the main reason we excluded people was because they were already doing something about their weight. 133 00:13:06,610 --> 00:13:12,820 We were after the unmotivated majority of people, not those who are already being active. 134 00:13:14,020 --> 00:13:17,499 Who did we enrol where we enrolled? People who were just waiting to see a GP. 135 00:13:17,500 --> 00:13:23,680 So an average there, their age was in their mid-fifties, their BMI was about 35. 136 00:13:24,370 --> 00:13:30,519 There were slightly more women than men because more women than men go to the doctors, that kind of thing. 137 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:32,950 But there is an exceptional group of people. 138 00:13:35,570 --> 00:13:44,450 Now, the other reason doctors say I can't possibly talk to people about their weight is because they worry that it will be upsetting for people, 139 00:13:44,450 --> 00:13:48,270 that if you go in with a sore tone, the doctor says, Oh, while you're here, 140 00:13:48,590 --> 00:13:53,480 can I just talk to you about your weight, that that might be intrusive and unwanted. 141 00:13:54,110 --> 00:13:57,470 And so we were careful to assess that in this trial. 142 00:13:57,750 --> 00:14:01,520 We asked people, you know, fill in a short questionnaire, and we asked them two questions. 143 00:14:01,850 --> 00:14:09,950 How appropriate was that or how inappropriate and how helpful or unhelpful was that on a 144 00:14:09,950 --> 00:14:15,320 scale from very unhelpful to very helpful and very inappropriate to very help appropriate. 145 00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:28,610 Come in. So here we are in the next two slides you'll see the graphs and green is helpful or appropriate and red is unhelpful and neutral is amber. 146 00:14:29,030 --> 00:14:32,150 And for those a red green colour band, green is at the top. 147 00:14:33,260 --> 00:14:38,300 So that's appropriate. And us, you see the red band is quite small and that's helpful. 148 00:14:38,750 --> 00:14:46,010 The Red Band is quite small. And what's surprising to us was that just telling people that they ought to lose some 149 00:14:46,010 --> 00:14:51,800 weight was had quite this was seen as helpful as offering them help to support weight. 150 00:14:52,910 --> 00:14:57,740 Now most people who thought this is inappropriate thought it was helpful and vice versa, 151 00:14:58,130 --> 00:15:07,610 meaning that only one in 500 people thought it was both inappropriate and unhelpful and no one thought it was very inappropriate and very unhelpful. 152 00:15:07,940 --> 00:15:15,590 So surprisingly positive results there, while more than eight in ten thought it was both appropriate and and helpful. 153 00:15:17,450 --> 00:15:23,480 All right. So the 2000 $64,000 question, of course, is what effect did that have on people? 154 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:28,130 And we weighed them at three months. This is the difference then. 155 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:32,760 So the people who heard the message, this is not people who went to the weight loss coach. 156 00:15:32,820 --> 00:15:40,730 Remember, the the intervention was the best way to go. And then they were referred for 12 weeks to Slimming World or Rosemary Connolly. 157 00:15:41,780 --> 00:15:48,730 That's not necessarily people who go that's everybody who heard that message and that's everybody who heard the advice message. 158 00:15:48,740 --> 00:15:57,979 So you see a 1.8 kilo difference. So at that point and then at 12 months, this group had more effectively there was less weight loss here, 159 00:15:57,980 --> 00:16:01,910 as you can see, but still a highly significant difference. 160 00:16:03,620 --> 00:16:08,569 It's not massive weight loss. It's 2.4 kilos versus one kilo, not massive weight loss. 161 00:16:08,570 --> 00:16:14,750 And you say, well, why is that any good? And that's just showing five and 10% weight loss. 162 00:16:15,170 --> 00:16:16,520 Why is that any good? Well, 163 00:16:16,850 --> 00:16:26,030 one of the things that we've done is done some modelling of this to look at what would happen to the population if GP's were to do this as a routine. 164 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:35,600 Let's suppose that once a year so anybody who came along who was suitable, they did a brief intervention of the kind we proposed suggesting advice. 165 00:16:36,290 --> 00:16:40,310 Now in the first bit of modelling, I'll show you that's not happening. 166 00:16:40,460 --> 00:16:47,870 All we're doing is looking at trends in the prevalence of obesity, a BMI over 30 without any intervention. 167 00:16:48,170 --> 00:16:58,190 And what we think will happen over the next 20 years if current trends continue, is the prevalence will go from that 25% to just over 30% in the UK. 168 00:16:58,460 --> 00:17:05,780 So that's what the prevalence of obesity is set to do over 20 years and that will add of course to increased pressures on the NHS. 169 00:17:06,950 --> 00:17:13,430 If doctors were to do this once a year, we think it will get less than half that prevalence. 170 00:17:14,120 --> 00:17:21,229 So dramatically drop. This assumes this model that people who have been will regain the weight back 171 00:17:21,230 --> 00:17:26,209 to zero unless they happen to go again for a second time over five years, 172 00:17:26,210 --> 00:17:29,240 which is what we think is is the natural course of events. 173 00:17:30,230 --> 00:17:34,080 So and that will save about half a percent of the NHS budget. 174 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,400 So as far as we can calculate over this period. 175 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:47,420 So a substantially it's cost saving and improves outcomes in quite a dramatic way from small changes delivered at scale. 176 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:52,040 Of course the key will be to get GP's to behave and that is another question. 177 00:17:54,140 --> 00:17:59,629 Right? Where did this idea come from? Well, I don't know if you've seen these these type of characters around. 178 00:17:59,630 --> 00:18:06,020 These are chokers, as we say in Britain, charity muggers or people who work for charities. 179 00:18:06,020 --> 00:18:14,680 More charitably, and I don't know about you, but I'm pretty immune to sugars on the street. 180 00:18:14,690 --> 00:18:19,310 That's because I give regularly through my various direct debits and so forth. 181 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:25,310 But when they come to the door, then I find that a difficult encounter because I feel like I'm trapped by that. 182 00:18:26,360 --> 00:18:34,190 And the idea for this intervention sort of came from my experience of being chucked on my doorstep by the British Heart Foundation. 183 00:18:34,330 --> 00:18:39,390 It happens. Now, I actually gave most of my all my or almost all of my giving. 184 00:18:39,660 --> 00:18:46,680 As you'll hear in a minute, is to charities that work in low and middle income countries like Oxfam and so forth. 185 00:18:47,460 --> 00:18:51,570 And and this is British Heart Foundation. 186 00:18:51,570 --> 00:18:57,600 So I didn't wasn't inclined to give them my direct debit. 187 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:04,230 But of course, the conversation proceeded in such a way that in the end, I was there signing the direct debit. 188 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,519 And it's gotten me to thinking that there's something in the way that those 189 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:14,190 conversations are structured and managed that leads to that kind of outcome. 190 00:19:15,990 --> 00:19:26,970 And also, I said, I showed you this early, and just as the facts look compared with advice, offering support is more effective. 191 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,800 P values and whatnot on there. But take it from me that there, there. 192 00:19:32,700 --> 00:19:34,950 But why? What is it that's happening? 193 00:19:35,820 --> 00:19:45,330 And so over the once we did the trial, we not only did we, we measured the outcomes, we also recorded the consultations. 194 00:19:45,330 --> 00:19:53,430 And I didn't know why at the time, but I've now got a student whose picture I meant to put up there called Charlotte Albury, 195 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:59,760 who's working with me looking at these consultations and using this thing called conversation analysis, 196 00:20:00,090 --> 00:20:05,700 where essentially she's looking at how that consultation is going, the flow of the consultation, 197 00:20:06,060 --> 00:20:13,740 and you can tell whether people are responding to you in a positive way or not so positive if you listen to that consultation. 198 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:19,709 So, for example, if the person says, oh, do you want to go to Weightwatchers or Slimming World or something like that? 199 00:20:19,710 --> 00:20:23,730 And there's a longish pause and then they go, Yes, that's generally means no. 200 00:20:23,820 --> 00:20:27,300 Right? So that's that's what conversation analysis is. 201 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:32,100 Whereas if you said you want to get to slimming world, yes, that means yes. 202 00:20:32,490 --> 00:20:34,860 So that's sort of what she's been doing. 203 00:20:34,860 --> 00:20:40,920 But I've oversimplified it to make a point, I think because it's taken her three years, I hope she's done a bit more than that. 204 00:20:42,780 --> 00:20:45,360 So that's what she's doing. 205 00:20:45,510 --> 00:20:54,480 And this is some of the things that she's found that are consistently associated not just with positive signs in the consultation, 206 00:20:54,660 --> 00:21:00,630 but from what we know about what happened to the patients, because we followed them up to see whether they actually went and so forth. 207 00:21:00,660 --> 00:21:10,530 And these are the things that are associated with success, as in you offer people a weight loss program and they go, that's what she means by success. 208 00:21:11,490 --> 00:21:15,750 So and the key thing is it's this good news thing. 209 00:21:15,900 --> 00:21:17,790 It's fairly obvious when you put it like this, 210 00:21:17,790 --> 00:21:25,770 but it's amazing how commonly the doctors in this thing would give it a kind of, well, you're not really a bit overweight. 211 00:21:26,610 --> 00:21:31,709 And what we normally do is send people to this, you know, not give it a thing. 212 00:21:31,710 --> 00:21:34,770 Like I'm pleased to say it's a good opportunity. 213 00:21:34,950 --> 00:21:38,700 It's fully funded on the NHS, some good news delivery, 214 00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:46,290 somehow just getting across the fact that you're pleased to offer them something is associated with a person taking action. 215 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:53,669 Secondly, in this context, people I think think that things like weightwatchers and slimming world are expensive. 216 00:21:53,670 --> 00:21:56,850 They're not particularly expensive. They're about £5 a week. 217 00:21:57,270 --> 00:22:01,829 But note saying that it's free was absolutely crucial. 218 00:22:01,830 --> 00:22:06,120 If you if if you said, oh, what, you can go to slimming world and they say, 219 00:22:06,120 --> 00:22:12,269 oh no, then then saying it's free later on in the consultation didn't rescue it. 220 00:22:12,270 --> 00:22:21,180 You've got to say upfront. Right delivering successful asking the question there's all sorts of ways you can crunch claim. 221 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,540 You could say would you be willing to give it a go? 222 00:22:24,930 --> 00:22:34,500 And if you think about that for a moment, why would that work better than saying, do you want to go to slimming world or why not? 223 00:22:35,430 --> 00:22:37,020 What about giving it a try? 224 00:22:37,930 --> 00:22:48,240 The reason that would you be willing is such a powerful construction is because it creates this expectation of a person saying yes, 225 00:22:48,270 --> 00:22:53,190 what sort of person would be unwilling to give it even a go like that? 226 00:22:53,310 --> 00:22:57,330 So that's why that you get more people saying yes and more people turning up. 227 00:22:58,260 --> 00:23:06,420 It's not just that they say yes, but once they say yes, they're kind of half locked in collaboration. 228 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,389 There's a lot self consultation styles. 229 00:23:09,390 --> 00:23:16,490 Motivational interviewing is the most classic example that people think you should use in this thing, which is about collaboration with your patients. 230 00:23:16,500 --> 00:23:21,360 Obviously, you can't tell people what to do, and I none of us want to do that. 231 00:23:21,930 --> 00:23:27,899 But actually what we're talking about is just paraphrasing the patient saying, you know, 232 00:23:27,900 --> 00:23:33,690 you were telling me earlier on about your knees or as you were saying and just using these idioms. 233 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:39,900 And phrases in the way that you're talking. When you're talking about this, you're sort of drawing the person in. 234 00:23:41,010 --> 00:23:45,120 If you notice, when I did my little spiel, I probably said, Did you know? 235 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:50,430 You sort of again, it's just that did you know that the best way to lose weight is to go, too? 236 00:23:51,210 --> 00:23:55,400 So it's sort of drawing them in as their partners in this. 237 00:23:55,410 --> 00:23:57,270 But you're sort of providing information. 238 00:23:57,270 --> 00:24:05,460 You're not necessarily asking them what their ideas are about ways to lose weight, which is sort of the approach in motivational interviewing. 239 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:19,940 One of the things that we noticed in the consultations with doctors were at pains to distance themselves from what they were saying to the patient. 240 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,260 We asked them, Make it sound like it's coming from you. 241 00:24:23,890 --> 00:24:29,470 What they did was they would say, The trial thinks you should go to slimming world, right? 242 00:24:29,650 --> 00:24:33,570 These folks out there, they're nutters who go on about obesity all the time. 243 00:24:33,580 --> 00:24:42,760 They want you to go. But actually, if they said if they got resistance and they said, well, actually, I think this would be really good for you. 244 00:24:42,910 --> 00:24:53,020 That sort of phrase was a powerful sort of thing that they could use to overcome resistance in the consultation and was associated with attendance. 245 00:24:53,830 --> 00:24:58,780 All right. Here's some things that they should not do based on Charlotte's research. 246 00:24:59,140 --> 00:25:05,170 And the first is rather on a rather surprising, which is to link weight and health. 247 00:25:06,100 --> 00:25:13,000 There are ways to do this. If you use that collaboration frame that I talked about earlier, some of those phrases, you can do this successfully, 248 00:25:13,330 --> 00:25:21,880 but it is a high risk thing to do both in the case of people doing this in smoking cessation interventions and with weight loss interventions, 249 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:29,260 linking weight and health from a doctor, strangely enough, tends to lead to resistance. 250 00:25:29,650 --> 00:25:35,379 So it might be a good idea. Some obvious no no's don't say obesity or obese. 251 00:25:35,380 --> 00:25:37,600 It has a lay meaning and a technical meaning. 252 00:25:37,810 --> 00:25:47,890 Doctors clearly meaning it technically, but it's understood in a different term don't sound hesitant or negative, obviously. 253 00:25:48,260 --> 00:25:53,320 But again, because doctors would do things for the first few times in their lives, they often did so. 254 00:25:53,620 --> 00:25:57,070 And that was associated with a very bad outcome. 255 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,780 So that's just a summary slide. Okay. 256 00:26:02,770 --> 00:26:07,670 The final thing I want to draw your attention to is I mentioned this already with this other trial. 257 00:26:07,690 --> 00:26:14,110 This isn't one of our trials. This is a trial in Denmark, but it's a forum randomised trial. 258 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:19,300 And these two arms here, these are the crucial ones I want you to think about. 259 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:27,850 The first one, they were these were people who were somewhat ambivalent about stopping smoking involved in this trial. 260 00:26:28,450 --> 00:26:31,530 And they were randomised to two types of interventions. 261 00:26:31,540 --> 00:26:39,189 Either the clinic would phone them up or the counsellors would phone them up regularly every week for a course of let's say five sessions. 262 00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:44,930 I think it's five sessions. You have five sessions of support in to make a quit attempt, right? 263 00:26:44,950 --> 00:26:50,410 That sort of like if you went to a smoking cessation clinic in Britain, that's what it would look like. 264 00:26:51,580 --> 00:26:58,660 This group here, they were left to make their own calls. They could ring up for help and were told, oh, yeah, well, why don't you bring in next week? 265 00:26:59,530 --> 00:27:07,630 And what we're looking at in the grey bar here is the proportion of people that did one call, at least 74% plays 9%. 266 00:27:08,110 --> 00:27:14,950 And this is the number of people who completed treatment, 25% or a quarter versus nobody at all. 267 00:27:16,060 --> 00:27:21,730 And most crucially of all, this prolonged 12 months of abstinence. 268 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,960 So long term cessation, four or five fold higher. 269 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:34,720 As I said, what people say is, well, if you can't be bothered to make your own appointments, you surely won't be able to stop smoking. 270 00:27:35,110 --> 00:27:36,820 But actually, the reverse is true. 271 00:27:37,030 --> 00:27:44,890 Somehow or other, we as humans can accomplish marvellous things for ourselves if only somebody makes the arrangements for us to do so. 272 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,350 Oops. What happened there? Right. 273 00:27:52,030 --> 00:28:00,180 Okay. And the reason I'd want to draw your attention to this is because in my world behaviour change world, we have a thing called a taxonomy. 274 00:28:00,190 --> 00:28:05,709 It's like the atoms of what counselling or support or other sorts of behavioural interventions, 275 00:28:05,710 --> 00:28:12,070 including policy interventions, look like the kind of micro micro components. 276 00:28:12,580 --> 00:28:21,730 And there's one which is this one called social support, which is I'm going to arrange for you to get your, your weight loss supports. 277 00:28:22,270 --> 00:28:28,900 And that can either be advice on, such as what you should do is give them a ring or arrange. 278 00:28:29,590 --> 00:28:38,980 Those are considered as the same thing. But actually, if you go back to this slide here, the difference between those two two strategies is immense. 279 00:28:39,940 --> 00:28:46,810 And if there's one single thing you take away from this lecture as a sort of single Best Buy in behavioural 280 00:28:47,020 --> 00:28:53,740 behavioural interventions is probably this just somehow organise for people to do things for themselves. 281 00:28:54,340 --> 00:29:01,720 Right. The upshot was when the doctor said wine, you know, the best way to lose weight is to go to slimming world. 282 00:29:02,260 --> 00:29:06,850 Why not give it a go? Well, when they said that to. 283 00:29:06,990 --> 00:29:13,229 Almost all comers. These are just all people who turned up nearly well more than three quarters. 284 00:29:13,230 --> 00:29:16,560 Nearly 80% of people said, yes, I will do. Dr. 285 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,570 Amazingly high proportion. You think about why that is. 286 00:29:21,610 --> 00:29:27,390 I guess if you were just talking to your friend, that wouldn't be the case. 287 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,590 Know if you turned around to your friend and said, you know, the best way to lose weight is to go to slimming world. 288 00:29:31,950 --> 00:29:40,890 Why don't you go? He or she would likely not say yes, but because it's in the context of consultation. 289 00:29:41,130 --> 00:29:44,130 That's what patients do with doctors. They tend to say yes. 290 00:29:44,790 --> 00:29:52,370 And of course, in real life, they don't always mean it. They take their prescriptions and they think, screw it up and throw that away outside. 291 00:29:52,380 --> 00:29:55,710 But they don't say that. That's an idiotic idea to give me that prescription. 292 00:29:56,940 --> 00:30:00,690 But of course, they then we ask them to make an appointment. 293 00:30:01,170 --> 00:30:06,900 This little group here, they forgot their diary or made other excuses as to why they weren't making their appointment. 294 00:30:07,170 --> 00:30:11,640 This little group made an appointment but didn't turn up, and this group actually turned up. 295 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,920 And this group completed the treatment course this group didn't. 296 00:30:17,250 --> 00:30:24,780 Now, this ratio between completers and non completers is the same as we see in motivated populations. 297 00:30:25,770 --> 00:30:33,990 It's as though motivation was enough to get them through the door and what happened next depended upon what was behind the door. 298 00:30:34,170 --> 00:30:39,720 In this case, the door was the door of the slimming world or Rosemary Connolly group that they got referred to. 299 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:46,140 So that's what takes over. So it's not this intrinsic motivation that's carrying people through, 300 00:30:46,500 --> 00:30:52,620 but simply whether they got on with or did not get on with that form of support to lose weight. 301 00:30:54,930 --> 00:30:57,540 Right. And this is why the treatment works. 302 00:30:57,540 --> 00:31:05,429 If we look at the control intervention, here are the people who did nothing at all and a slightly higher proportion than in the group who were given. 303 00:31:05,430 --> 00:31:15,839 They suggested a referral. But the main difference is this group here who tried to lose weight on their own is very much larger than that group. 304 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:23,459 And what we've done primarily is take this group of people who would have tried to lose weight and given them a more effective way to do that, 305 00:31:23,460 --> 00:31:27,300 which was to go along to the slimming world or Rosemary Connolly group. 306 00:31:27,630 --> 00:31:37,920 And that's primarily why it worked. It's that high uptake of that support that drove it about four in ten people who heard the message. 307 00:31:37,930 --> 00:31:42,630 Why not go along to Rosemary? Connie or Slimming World did so. And that's what's driving that. 308 00:31:44,790 --> 00:31:53,880 Okay. One of the things that we think of in our society, particularly over the last 15 years, has become a sort of political mantra. 309 00:31:54,030 --> 00:32:04,200 Is choice, right? No. Know in lots of areas, we think that choice is really important and surely to goodness it's importance in behaviour change. 310 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:08,670 But I want to suggest to you that it probably is a lot less important than you imagine. 311 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:14,489 This was one of the trials we did quite a few years ago is one that shows that the best 312 00:32:14,490 --> 00:32:17,820 way to lose weight is to go along to one of these commercial weight management groups. 313 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:25,200 This is a trial that shows that you can see these are highly significant differences for those who worry about that kind of thing. 314 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,240 And here are some NHS owned brand alternatives. 315 00:32:30,750 --> 00:32:36,550 No better than no intervention there. And here's the Choice group, which did a bit better than everything else. 316 00:32:36,870 --> 00:32:40,980 But the reason it did so was because most people who were given a choice chose that. 317 00:32:41,790 --> 00:32:44,460 And to the extent that they didn't, they did worse. 318 00:32:45,030 --> 00:32:51,929 But if we if we look at the difference in people who chose that treatment compared with people who didn't choose that treatment, 319 00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:57,930 we just allocated it at random. This these guys, they did just exactly the same. 320 00:32:58,110 --> 00:33:04,590 There was no evidence of a difference. Choosing your treatment does not improve somehow commitments or carry through. 321 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:12,510 Here's another trial that I came across where they were randomised to a diet they chose. 322 00:33:12,540 --> 00:33:17,440 In other words, do you want to go on a vegetarian diet or a standard diet or the diet? 323 00:33:17,460 --> 00:33:21,330 They did not choose the opposite of what they chose. That's what they were randomised to. 324 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,770 And here is what they outcomes were. 325 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,900 So if they got that preference, that's the blues. 326 00:33:27,900 --> 00:33:34,200 And if they did got that the one they did not want and they didn't know they were going to be given the choice they didn't want. 327 00:33:34,940 --> 00:33:40,440 They, they, they did better. So choosing here is actually worse. 328 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:46,230 And the outcome for people, when you get what you choose, you do worse than if you get. 329 00:33:47,100 --> 00:33:50,700 When you get what you choose, you do worse than if you'd get the thing you didn't choose. 330 00:33:51,990 --> 00:33:57,860 All right. Where are we? Okay. Just to show how malleable choices can be, 331 00:33:57,870 --> 00:34:03,900 here's a randomised trial of some different types of nicotine replacement treatments for people stopping smoking. 332 00:34:04,140 --> 00:34:12,900 This is what people's preference was at the beginning. But if we look at one week into it, you see very little difference in preference. 333 00:34:12,910 --> 00:34:19,410 People who got gum, which was the least preferred choice. Their ratings of how good gums have shot up. 334 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:28,410 You know, Patch remained the most popular treatment choice in that trial, but it choices were modified easily by experience. 335 00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:37,520 Now, here's a trial. We did a smoking cessation trial where we randomised people to two ways to stop smoking, 336 00:34:37,530 --> 00:34:44,340 either to cut down first or to stop back like that without cutting down at all. 337 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,000 So we asked people at the beginning, Which do you prefer? 338 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,810 These groups had no preference. That group said, I want to quit. 339 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:59,120 Bang like that abruptly. Or these people said, I want to cut down first and sort of more natural way of doing it. 340 00:34:59,130 --> 00:35:03,120 On the whole, if you're building up your training, for example, you build up, don't you? 341 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:08,340 Don't you don't you don't do it all in one lit. So it seems a natural thing to do. 342 00:35:08,580 --> 00:35:17,100 It turns out. Oh, just to say the trial was funded by British Heart Foundation and thanks to my direct debit also by me, 343 00:35:19,110 --> 00:35:23,550 it turns out across the board doing it gradually was worse. 344 00:35:23,990 --> 00:35:29,460 I haven't shown you the overall trial results. These are 95% confidence intervals here. 345 00:35:29,610 --> 00:35:34,270 You can see they're all crossing the one line. But if we take this group as a whole. 346 00:35:34,710 --> 00:35:42,540 This is by split by baseline preference, then you'll see a significant improvement of abrupt over of a gradual. 347 00:35:43,050 --> 00:35:48,300 But you see absolutely no difference whether you get what you choose or you get what you don't choose. 348 00:35:48,540 --> 00:35:53,730 You have the same as it were, worse and outcome regardless of. 349 00:35:53,930 --> 00:36:03,980 Type across, whether you've got preference or not. But nonetheless, people who quit that way, it became really a popular choice. 350 00:36:04,430 --> 00:36:11,989 So what I want to try to suggest to you is that choices can be, you know, beguiling thing, 351 00:36:11,990 --> 00:36:17,090 but actually there's very little evidence that they make a difference to 352 00:36:17,090 --> 00:36:21,200 behaviour change and some evidence in some cases that they worsen the outcomes. 353 00:36:22,310 --> 00:36:27,320 Now if there's one area that surely makes a big difference is gender. 354 00:36:28,430 --> 00:36:38,510 You would think that choice is based on gender, a highly resistant to changing, as based as they are on sort of marked parts of our identity. 355 00:36:38,930 --> 00:36:43,370 And the classic example, of course, is weight loss. 356 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:48,170 So I've been saying the best way to lose weight is to go along to weight or slimming world. 357 00:36:48,740 --> 00:36:56,440 And if you do that, you will find that if you go as a man, you'll be one of very few men almost. 358 00:36:56,450 --> 00:37:03,260 This is the people who just choose to go by themselves. But 95% of women and 5% of men. 359 00:37:03,780 --> 00:37:09,280 So one in 20 men and 19 in 20 women of their own volition go there. 360 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:16,370 If instead you look at what GP's naturally do, then you can get that up. 361 00:37:16,550 --> 00:37:21,380 So about one in ten men and nine in ten women. 362 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:30,860 That's what those two right hand columns represent. And if you look at the websites of these organisations, this is weightwatchers. 363 00:37:31,010 --> 00:37:34,340 This is what at the time I put this slide together, that's what it looked like. 364 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:40,410 And slimming world, you say, well, no wonder women go and men don't go. 365 00:37:40,430 --> 00:37:47,389 This does not look like something that men are interested in. And this is, of course, this and more generally, 366 00:37:47,390 --> 00:37:56,490 any kind of weight loss intervention that consists of sort of behavioural support is a cause of anxiety and stress to those people in public health. 367 00:37:56,510 --> 00:38:01,999 Here's a big commissioned report saying, you know, look, we've got this problem. 368 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:06,020 Men don't go for support. We know that support really makes a difference to weight loss success. 369 00:38:06,020 --> 00:38:14,300 But men aren't going, what can we do about it? And we do sort of, you know, focus groups and all sorts of things. 370 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:27,370 Men like what men like. So what they want is sort of banter and sort of fun and some exercise and not at all like the Weight Watchers and stuff. 371 00:38:27,430 --> 00:38:34,010 Right. That's what they say. And that was just a commissioning brief. 372 00:38:34,460 --> 00:38:37,520 Now, this is as I said, I've showed you that already. 373 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:44,960 That's what we achieve naturally. And we did a trial where we wrote to people and said, Well, why not go? 374 00:38:45,460 --> 00:38:54,260 We wrote to everybody, men and women alike. Same letter. And actually, when you do that, you get a ratio of about 2 to 1. 375 00:38:54,830 --> 00:38:58,580 So instead of being 9 to 1, we get down to 2 to 1. 376 00:38:59,300 --> 00:39:06,379 And if we look in our trial, the brief interventions where the GP was offering support, this ratio of what these are, 377 00:39:06,380 --> 00:39:16,100 men versus women, you can see that about three in ten men take up the offer in about five in ten women do so about 1.6 to 1. 378 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:23,060 And that's sort of what it looks like. And if we say, well, look this, where are we? 379 00:39:23,330 --> 00:39:27,110 That's sort of gender, the slipped a bit, but that's gender neutrality. 380 00:39:29,510 --> 00:39:35,510 If you look at it simply by, say, a GP saying, you know, why don't you just give that a go? 381 00:39:36,050 --> 00:39:42,290 That's what you can get. You can get most of the way towards gender neutrality by that simple expedient. 382 00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:50,090 And maybe there is something to do with cultural adaptation towards men that can get the rest of it. 383 00:39:50,330 --> 00:39:53,540 Maybe that's that's something that we need to do. 384 00:39:53,870 --> 00:40:00,260 But actually, the reason men aren't going in this country to support us is because nobody's suggesting that they do. 385 00:40:00,650 --> 00:40:06,320 And men are men. And maybe we just don't get off our own bottoms and go ourselves. 386 00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,730 But if only somebody suggested to us to do so, we might. 387 00:40:12,380 --> 00:40:22,090 What happens to men when they get to these programmes? Or. This is a large trial that we've recently published which splits the outcomes. 388 00:40:22,100 --> 00:40:26,270 These were people referred. So these were brief interventions down here. 389 00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:30,890 This is 12 weeks of Weight Watchers and 52 weeks of Weight Watchers. 390 00:40:31,850 --> 00:40:37,910 No evidence at all that men and women were doing differently in these weight loss programs. 391 00:40:38,180 --> 00:40:46,880 When they get to Weight Watchers or slimming world, they do just as well as women do, and perhaps in broader literature, even slightly better. 392 00:40:47,690 --> 00:40:53,810 But in our trials, certainly no difference across the range of several of these sorts of trials now. 393 00:40:55,410 --> 00:41:08,940 So that's all I wanted to say to you. I wanted to sort of, I guess show that you can create behaviour, change opportunities relatively easily. 394 00:41:09,750 --> 00:41:15,659 I'm a GP so I can do it in the course of my my working day and that there are ways 395 00:41:15,660 --> 00:41:21,000 in which you can prompt people to take action that are not not too difficult, 396 00:41:21,330 --> 00:41:28,409 can easily be learned and that that will spur a lot of people who don't have high motivation into taking action. 397 00:41:28,410 --> 00:41:35,820 And if you gather around some of those forces about arranging things and creating some slight sense of accountability, 398 00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:43,080 then you can create behaviour change where you mightn't have expected it to occur because the person didn't really want it. 399 00:41:43,620 --> 00:41:44,880 Thank you very much for listening.