1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:06,900 Thank you for. Possibility the present of what is preservation will come back. 2 00:00:08,100 --> 00:00:12,720 Last time I was talking it was February I think allowance or something like a February. 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,800 I was talking about reflection, reflective emphasis within the. 4 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:23,860 But after a couple weeks after that, there's intention lots of changes in Ukraine, Crimea and in our region. 5 00:00:23,860 --> 00:00:29,819 And well now I'm presenting a bit different presentation where I have to be more positive about the field. 6 00:00:29,820 --> 00:00:39,959 And of course it's probably not critical, but we'll see how to proceed because after all we have to prepare for defence of maybe Russian attack 7 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:45,810 maybe we'll see are able broke through several broken broke break to rule some in this presentation. 8 00:00:45,810 --> 00:00:55,950 One is I don't like to give a slides, but I decided maybe to show some slides before because some numbers budget and force the size maybe better to 9 00:00:55,950 --> 00:01:03,300 see in the slides than to listen me because it's visual visualising is better one and the second one is small. 10 00:01:03,510 --> 00:01:06,299 I don't like to be how to say to play a politics, 11 00:01:06,300 --> 00:01:13,740 but the title is a little bit pull it politicised because I would guess that even here in the United Kingdom and in Western countries, 12 00:01:13,950 --> 00:01:20,550 there are people who think that there is no Russian-Ukrainian words freedom crisis, Crimea crisis, or I would call it in Lithuania. 13 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:30,899 It's plain, simple. It's a Russian war against the great. But that's all where I use political, let's say, some questions, etc. After that, 14 00:01:30,900 --> 00:01:36,180 I will try to be as much as possible objective and talk about numbers, about situations, about facts. 15 00:01:36,570 --> 00:01:41,130 But and that also reflects, let's say, mentality of Baltic states. 16 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:49,770 Because when Western countries are using, as I said, crisis management limited the war or something like that, 17 00:01:49,770 --> 00:01:56,970 it's sometimes perceived in our region like a defeat of some countries to soft position against Russia. 18 00:01:57,150 --> 00:02:06,780 And we are more harder position, more troops on the ground, more American troops in Baltic states, permanent bases, etc., etc. 19 00:02:07,590 --> 00:02:11,940 And well, we probably now that it's not sometimes so easy to do that. 20 00:02:11,940 --> 00:02:19,020 And Britain, America, Germany has maybe a much wider interpretation what has happened in Ukraine and Baltic states. 21 00:02:20,100 --> 00:02:25,680 Okay, so let's try to proceed so that first some geography, 22 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:33,239 it will be maybe important in the understand so Baltic states so simple question is imagine how you have to defend if you are, 23 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,770 let's say Germany, Poland or Norway, you have to send troops. 24 00:02:36,780 --> 00:02:42,959 The Baltic states only with 60 kilometres links between Lithuania in Poland is 25 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:51,000 direct land link with other NATO countries and that is between district and below. 26 00:02:51,900 --> 00:02:55,740 So in our military planners are saying if some if there will be some attack, 27 00:02:55,740 --> 00:03:01,110 you just very easily may attack this position and disconnects Lithuania and Baltic 28 00:03:01,110 --> 00:03:06,690 states from the Poland and the only way is by sea or air to reach our countries. 29 00:03:06,990 --> 00:03:13,020 And so Marva is important, 82% of population that is Russian. 30 00:03:14,790 --> 00:03:22,500 So if you talk about Crimea and scenario in Baltic states that probably the most often city which is named 31 00:03:22,710 --> 00:03:32,640 where is this scenario might be again done because 82% is a lot this local is it's around 70% Latvian cities, 32 00:03:32,640 --> 00:03:35,740 around 70% of Russian living in that city. 33 00:03:35,850 --> 00:03:40,829 And again, this border town, Lithuania, is more like it in this sense. 34 00:03:40,830 --> 00:03:45,479 You see some numbers. We have real, really smaller numbers of Russian minorities. 35 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:54,030 So in our case, it's a bit different, but we have more broader challenge from Canada as our country. 36 00:03:54,040 --> 00:04:01,740 So some numbers and we will go. So we see numbers are a little bit astonishing. 37 00:04:01,950 --> 00:04:09,510 Lithuanians managed to have small minority and that is, I would say, one of the positive legacy of our Lithuanian Communist Party, 38 00:04:09,570 --> 00:04:15,150 because it was a rational decision by a living communists in the late fifties 39 00:04:15,450 --> 00:04:20,910 not to give permission for Russians to enter the scene or limit the numbers. 40 00:04:21,810 --> 00:04:23,640 That was different with Astana and Latvia. 41 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:31,040 And now we all the countries are paying the price, are reaping the benefits of that decisions made in Soviet times. 42 00:04:32,280 --> 00:04:38,370 You can see the population size of all countries. Lithuania numbers are, I would say is in some kind of flux. 43 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:43,620 All official data saying that let's see that in Lithuania we have three and a half million people. 44 00:04:44,820 --> 00:04:45,899 Why I put this number? 45 00:04:45,900 --> 00:04:53,969 Because there's around 300,000 Lithuanians who are living in Norway, Ireland, Great Britain, United States, Germany at this moment. 46 00:04:53,970 --> 00:04:57,480 So very big migration. Estonia, not so much. 47 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:03,370 Latvia also has a lot of immigration, lots of Latvian. So. Living in Western European European Union countries, especially Britain. 48 00:05:04,630 --> 00:05:08,140 English. So this Russian immigration was put forward? Yes. 49 00:05:08,140 --> 00:05:15,310 Possible for true. Well, the Russians. Lithuania were lucky also in this sense, because the Russian Khrushchev, he was so generous. 50 00:05:15,310 --> 00:05:18,430 He was he gave away Crimea to Ukraine. 51 00:05:18,430 --> 00:05:25,509 And he was proposing for the Communist Party to to take our district and to unite as Lithuanians. 52 00:05:25,510 --> 00:05:28,570 They said, well, you know, we don't want that. 53 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,050 Keep it to yourself. I would say from looking from this perspective, 54 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:40,960 it was a wise decision because otherwise we will have a bigger territory with very big Russian minority, probably the biggest in that region. 55 00:05:41,990 --> 00:05:46,360 So and then so the problem is, again, this capital. 56 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:51,250 So in Vilnius, it's only 15%, but Riga 50%. 57 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:58,540 So if you will be in Riga, probably you will hear more often the Russian language and Latin language. 58 00:05:59,140 --> 00:06:06,520 But in the streets. In taxi drivers. On public transport. Tallinn 30% and is decreasing. 59 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:12,820 So I think the biggest challenges Latvia still is Latvia numbers are going down. 60 00:06:13,870 --> 00:06:18,310 I think it was in nineties, it was around 32% of Russian minority in Latvia. 61 00:06:18,580 --> 00:06:27,400 So some of them went then back to Russia. Some of them just decided to be enlightened citizens and to see to to take a new identity. 62 00:06:27,580 --> 00:06:36,850 But still, the big number is. So. So when we talking about little green man scenario and mind, let's say especially Crimea case, 63 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:42,099 there is some worries in Baltic states, especially in Latvia, that might happen in Lithuania. 64 00:06:42,100 --> 00:06:52,120 We have different challenge. We have 11% minority of Polish people and then we say within in Poland, strategic partners, yes and no. 65 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:56,110 Taking granted our difficult historical past. 66 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:06,070 We have a big tensions is Polish minorities, especially Lithuanian, Polish, Polish, Polish parties playing some unconventional political games. 67 00:07:06,430 --> 00:07:10,750 And it's clear that in some ways is financed by Russians. 68 00:07:11,020 --> 00:07:15,910 At least 30% of all budget of this part is paid by Russian embassy in Lithuania. 69 00:07:17,260 --> 00:07:19,690 So if we don't have Russian minority, 70 00:07:19,700 --> 00:07:28,049 so we have Polish minority which is used by Russians and that minority lives around capital area and around the border region with Belarus. 71 00:07:28,050 --> 00:07:34,870 So again, if you talk about secrets concealed movement of troops from Belarus to Vilnius, 72 00:07:35,530 --> 00:07:40,300 Lithuania territory, that region where public knowledge is living again, some had to exist. 73 00:07:41,980 --> 00:07:44,680 Okay, so that is number about population. 74 00:07:44,830 --> 00:07:53,410 And overall, we may see that it's around six and a half million people living in all three countries altogether. 75 00:07:53,830 --> 00:07:57,860 So. Not very big ones. 76 00:07:58,190 --> 00:08:04,310 Now, armed forces are numbers are difficult again. 77 00:08:04,340 --> 00:08:08,749 Actually, I have to say and I was checking military balance and all the Internet sites. 78 00:08:08,750 --> 00:08:17,030 So let's see what you can find is the newest edition of Military Balance is totally different from what a Minister of Defence are putting on site. 79 00:08:17,030 --> 00:08:20,890 So the question is who am I have to trust I'm looking for, 80 00:08:20,900 --> 00:08:24,650 I know exactly what the final number because they are playing the Putin live in minister 81 00:08:24,650 --> 00:08:32,770 defence site let's say and so again so regular forces in Lithuania 7800 in Latvia, 82 00:08:32,780 --> 00:08:35,780 5000 in Estonia. Also the 5000. 83 00:08:35,780 --> 00:08:42,299 Estonia 3800. Volunteer force, number one, what they have in mind. 84 00:08:42,300 --> 00:08:47,400 We have we don't have conscription. Conscription was ended in 2008, 85 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:55,770 but we have the so-called basic training course where younger people may voluntarily come to have a tactical training exercises for three months, 86 00:08:55,770 --> 00:09:00,240 and after that, they may go away and enter again civilian life or go to regular forces. 87 00:09:00,810 --> 00:09:03,629 So that number in one year, 88 00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:11,340 we are training around 1000 volunteer younger people and that is something the numbers of our conscription in 2005 for free. 89 00:09:11,350 --> 00:09:17,580 So we don't have a conscription, but the same number of people are coming voluntarily to have a basic tactical training. 90 00:09:18,210 --> 00:09:27,270 We have active reserve that is volunteers will volunteer. So number is not very big one 4000 we have as the rifle men union about seven. 91 00:09:27,270 --> 00:09:32,280 So that is paramilitary organisation. Oh, half of that organisation is youth. 92 00:09:33,620 --> 00:09:36,680 Under ages. So and there's now a big debate. 93 00:09:37,340 --> 00:09:40,280 Should we train them to use a weapon or not? Because you have. 94 00:09:40,310 --> 00:09:46,360 Then we have a 15 year old guy maybe training to use a serious military weapon and the big debate. 95 00:09:46,370 --> 00:09:52,670 But Russia's challenge may create such kind of conditions that we would start training even maybe children or schoolchildren. 96 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:57,979 Senior classes use weapons so that we still we have some political debates. 97 00:09:57,980 --> 00:10:05,000 And within about that. Latvia National Guard, something like active reserve plus paramilitary organisation. 98 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:11,480 So we have 10,000 regular forces, 5000. And Estonia has conscription, Latvia doesn't. 99 00:10:11,870 --> 00:10:15,019 So that is a big difference between all three Baltic states. 100 00:10:15,020 --> 00:10:21,500 And they have this volunteer defence league, which is also of in some way paramilitary organisation. 101 00:10:21,770 --> 00:10:23,240 Big numbers, 15,000. 102 00:10:24,350 --> 00:10:37,070 So overall, you can see that the plan is in Lithuania to increase irregular forces in up centre 22,020 to have around 11,000 to regular forces. 103 00:10:37,460 --> 00:10:42,440 From now on, such numbers are planned if we will have enough funding and will to find the money. 104 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,510 Astana is planning to expand the military up to 1000, 105 00:10:47,780 --> 00:10:56,320 up to 6000 regular forces and Astana is planning to have two operational brigades of land forces. 106 00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:59,960 That means to say they have almost double that number. 107 00:11:01,370 --> 00:11:07,370 And again, everything is planned up to 2020. So we will see how to proceed at least this year. 108 00:11:07,730 --> 00:11:14,390 Estonia expanded by 300 people and regular forces left and expanded by 200. 109 00:11:14,510 --> 00:11:17,540 So it's maybe small numbers, but they say that is additional. 110 00:11:17,540 --> 00:11:22,130 Money was found to recruit 200 people to give up weapons, equipment, everything. 111 00:11:22,850 --> 00:11:27,380 And next year will be higher numbers. But we'll see how we proceed. 112 00:11:27,620 --> 00:11:31,520 But I would say the average is around 15,000 right now. 113 00:11:31,820 --> 00:11:40,600 All now people under the arms, which may be called to in, I don't know, in one week or two weeks, we have a bigger reserve. 114 00:11:40,700 --> 00:11:43,069 See people who served in the army, living an army, 115 00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:48,889 all the thing that in Estonian there are some people still who have experience from Soviet times military service. 116 00:11:48,890 --> 00:11:50,600 So it's a bigger pool. 117 00:11:50,870 --> 00:11:59,689 But the question is, at least in Lithuania, we don't have enough weapons to supply all those people who may come in numbers, big numbers. 118 00:11:59,690 --> 00:12:02,749 But you have maybe 20,000 volunteers to do something. 119 00:12:02,750 --> 00:12:09,170 But you don't have equipment, you don't have nothing. So what is it? Why do you need such kind of numbers if you don't know how to use it? 120 00:12:10,670 --> 00:12:12,379 But so so you can imagine. 121 00:12:12,380 --> 00:12:23,900 Now, what about size, population and force the size we're talking about and compare with your own countries and compare with Russia, for example. 122 00:12:23,900 --> 00:12:31,850 And where Russia has I know statistics is around 900,000 overall soldiers in the armed forces. 123 00:12:32,870 --> 00:12:41,810 So it's comparable. So NATO's is essentially without NATO's even not on strategical level, but operational. 124 00:12:41,900 --> 00:12:52,460 So let's say when that is states send it now keeps up in each country, our company of infantry, around 150 soldiers in each country. 125 00:12:52,670 --> 00:12:56,420 That's a lot. Then you look in the numbers of our armed forces. 126 00:12:58,420 --> 00:13:04,060 Because I would say at least what lieutenant military is saying when the Americans are training these Lithuanians, 127 00:13:04,180 --> 00:13:12,710 one American company is one Lithuanian battalion and skills, equipment, etc. So they meet, train a lot. 128 00:13:12,730 --> 00:13:16,240 Our soldiers know how to fight special tactical level decisions. 129 00:13:16,750 --> 00:13:20,320 So it seems maybe minor decisions buy from United States. 130 00:13:20,740 --> 00:13:24,310 Then you're looking from the Baltic states perspective. They're not so minor. 131 00:13:24,940 --> 00:13:28,390 One good company, American soldiers. It makes a difference, actually. 132 00:13:29,470 --> 00:13:35,700 And when also Hungary is sending one company in Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and you have well, 133 00:13:35,740 --> 00:13:41,560 finish planning next year to have around 400 foreign soldiers serving within it for exercises, for training. 134 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:48,760 And lots of them started to be smaller numbers and to be as understand all Americans and some. 135 00:13:48,770 --> 00:13:52,490 Maybe Germany will send some soldiers, which will be at least around 200. 136 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,530 Soldiers in both of these countries. So it's still quite a lot. 137 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:03,960 No. And the last slide was numbers. That is finance. 138 00:14:05,670 --> 00:14:10,890 Not very nice, at least. First two, because Estonia is playing by the rules. 139 00:14:11,370 --> 00:14:17,159 One of the few countries in Natal who have has 2% of GDP of budget. 140 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:22,740 And you may see the exact number of that number numbers in euros, what kind of. 141 00:14:22,950 --> 00:14:26,219 But it is Lithuania was under two, I have to say. 142 00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:35,160 But it's changing very rapidly and fast because next year we will have we expand our defence budget by one third compared with this year. 143 00:14:35,580 --> 00:14:41,930 So it's a huge input of money and the plan is to keep on going up 2020. 144 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:47,250 Now again, Lithuania, Latvia, it was made a political decision signed by all political parties, 145 00:14:47,250 --> 00:14:59,220 an agreement that up till 2020 both countries who have defence budget of equal will be equal to 2% of GDP at least next year. 146 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:06,270 This is a decision. It will be fulfilled step by step. 147 00:15:06,510 --> 00:15:15,900 So let's say in 2016, within a military budget will be around €450 million and it will be expensive. 148 00:15:16,150 --> 00:15:21,030 Enterprise will be enough political will to keep that promise. 149 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:30,510 I have some serious doubts, especially if Russia will stop, be after, say, overtly aggressive in Ukraine, 150 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:36,590 because then you have less tensions and you have less of debates in both in the states, 151 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,839 in the media and pulled in say, well, nobody cares about what is happening. 152 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,559 Ukraine because Russia is not playing is not any more aggressive, let's say that. 153 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,590 So in some ways, thank God for Russia's open, 154 00:15:46,590 --> 00:15:50,559 aggressive aggression in eastern Ukraine because it keeps on going and it keeps 155 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:55,440 the debate and within and block in Estonia to keep pressure on our defence budget, 156 00:15:55,440 --> 00:16:01,500 on our militaries, to expand, to have a better quality, to buy better the better equipment. 157 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,300 Well, Latvia also so again, you may see the numbers. 158 00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:10,170 Numbers are more or less similar. It's around €400 million. 159 00:16:11,010 --> 00:16:20,730 Right now, the budget is flat. So you may compare this again with your own defence budget and ask yourselves what you can do with such kind of money. 160 00:16:21,630 --> 00:16:28,290 Having in mind to say the size of forces is probably the biggest question is what kind 161 00:16:28,290 --> 00:16:34,799 of equipment and weaponry you mean by having such money because and all countries 162 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:39,390 are following the rules of NATO's no more than 50% of personnel that will be kept 163 00:16:39,390 --> 00:16:43,680 under consideration and assume that all three countries are playing by the rules here. 164 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:56,220 So it means that at least Lithuania is planning to spend about one world, 54 to 9% for personnel and 30% for equipment and weaponry. 165 00:16:56,730 --> 00:17:02,100 So we'll see. So that is numbers. 166 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:07,440 Only maybe we'll leave the map because we will really discuss what I wanted to speak more about it. 167 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:13,709 So I will talk like a military doctrine. Planning is physical, moral and conceptual level. 168 00:17:13,710 --> 00:17:16,890 So I talk a little bit about physical components. 169 00:17:16,890 --> 00:17:24,180 So the biggest question is in now in the countries what to do with the size of armed forces that are too small. 170 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:34,110 For example, Latvia, right now, they have 5000 irregular forces, but they have ten battalions. 171 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,990 Can we have proper managed manned battalions with 5000 people? 172 00:17:40,470 --> 00:17:45,629 My I don't think so, because that means that we have a shortage of people like in Lithuania. 173 00:17:45,630 --> 00:17:51,810 To some battalions, he has only 30% of feelings of battalion capacity. 174 00:17:52,260 --> 00:17:59,940 We need more people. The question is how to get it, recruit them, provide a better salary, all come back to conscription. 175 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,740 That is one big debate now in living in Latvia, especially in Lithuania. 176 00:18:05,730 --> 00:18:14,130 Maybe it's time again to bring back conscription. And swell and try to. 177 00:18:14,370 --> 00:18:18,090 But again, political questions really have exceptions. 178 00:18:18,120 --> 00:18:22,209 What kind of exceptions will students be accepted? They won't go to military. 179 00:18:22,210 --> 00:18:26,590 If you don't send students, then you don't have a 50% off rolling of colour. 180 00:18:26,610 --> 00:18:31,980 That means that you have a waste of conscription and you have social inequality, 181 00:18:31,990 --> 00:18:36,600 etc. All these questions are coming back and there's no you have this. 182 00:18:37,230 --> 00:18:41,920 We have presidential elections, municipal elections, parliamentary elections. 183 00:18:41,940 --> 00:18:49,650 And politicians are very careful by playing that, because if you lose a voice mandate of youth, you won't be elected. 184 00:18:49,890 --> 00:18:53,040 And conscription is that is a question of the younger generation. 185 00:18:53,730 --> 00:19:02,370 And there's a big debate. Will the younger generation go to military if they will be conscripted because numbers are showing that every are moving? 186 00:19:02,370 --> 00:19:07,020 At least 1000 younger people are keen to go to military no more. 187 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:14,950 But 1000 is not enough having in mind again within a minute. 188 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,569 So but because the thing is made them up and work is for me for them that we have 189 00:19:18,570 --> 00:19:25,410 every rotation is of 500 people are leaving military 500 are entering military. 190 00:19:26,970 --> 00:19:33,030 Some people are retiring. Find new jobs. So let's say if we want to increase our armed forces, we need much more than 1000. 191 00:19:33,900 --> 00:19:42,870 Can we deliver or have to do we have to look for another way so that this conscription very, very big debate tends debate. 192 00:19:45,030 --> 00:19:48,970 Another one is volunteers and paramilitary. 193 00:19:48,990 --> 00:19:58,650 Again, if you want to have a more paramilitary organisations, what whether all useful paramilitary organisations do, they must have weapons or not. 194 00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:03,390 Should we train children schools to use weapons or not? 195 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:08,970 Should we establish military training exercises in schools? 196 00:20:09,750 --> 00:20:16,110 Like in Soviet times? I was born in Soviet times. I remember being in first grade during the physical exercise. 197 00:20:16,290 --> 00:20:21,149 I was trained to drop artificial grenade from seven years old. 198 00:20:21,150 --> 00:20:26,040 We were trained to be a soldier. One day I was lucky within and became independent. 199 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,750 I haven't used that school and I hope I won't never use that skill. 200 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:35,879 I still remember how to do that. So now in some way we are coming back to this question. 201 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:41,610 Should we bring such kind of training into the schools, especially senior classes, not youngsters, 202 00:20:41,610 --> 00:20:50,189 but let's say guys, especially guys six and seven year old Estonia are not doing that in school. 203 00:20:50,190 --> 00:20:58,770 They are using the same school. That teaching is not to say civic duty as teaching history, 204 00:20:59,070 --> 00:21:04,979 etc. And they if you want to have a better training, you belong to this foreign organisation in Lithuania. 205 00:21:04,980 --> 00:21:06,360 We saying that it's not enough. 206 00:21:06,360 --> 00:21:15,150 In Parameterisation we should go to the schools and teach about military history, encourage our morale but also provide some skills. 207 00:21:15,330 --> 00:21:19,440 Latvia is the same. So I was talking with the rub. 208 00:21:19,450 --> 00:21:27,810 So it's question for you. Now imagine because of Russia's aggression, we're trying to be more prepared to fight back Russia. 209 00:21:28,470 --> 00:21:32,100 We are increasing our training and morale, 210 00:21:32,490 --> 00:21:40,920 especially expansion of encouraging of morale by teaching younger generation how to fight wars and even training to use military weapons. 211 00:21:42,090 --> 00:21:45,510 It's is a challenge. And when we became more militaristic nations. 212 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,930 And that is by definition Russia. 213 00:21:48,930 --> 00:21:57,749 Do you that voice propaganda information or worse and that they will be showing it for British American people and in TV shows and saying, 214 00:21:57,750 --> 00:22:03,150 look, this fascist militaristic Baltic states are preparing and they're not democratic states anymore. 215 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:10,780 How British people will perceive Baltic states. Are we still members of the democratic countries, family or not? 216 00:22:11,410 --> 00:22:18,730 I was too willing to help us or not because that is a big debate, philosophical debate about national security versus democracy. 217 00:22:18,970 --> 00:22:28,450 Where to find this fine line and little thing in some cases, I would say we there are some proposals which are not so much democratic. 218 00:22:29,230 --> 00:22:30,300 And I hope that one, 219 00:22:30,460 --> 00:22:38,950 they won't be became a policy because then Russia will really have lots of material for its propaganda and for domestic and foreign. 220 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:48,120 But that is a challenge. Another one is a big debate about special forces. 221 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,400 That is to say, because we're small, we don't have a big army. 222 00:22:53,700 --> 00:23:00,980 Maybe let's invest in special forces. All three Baltic states have their own special forces on Lithuania has special forces. 223 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,270 Independent military service is a fourth military service. 224 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,090 I think it's only Poland has the same and that's only two countries in the world. 225 00:23:09,390 --> 00:23:19,890 We can say alongside land, air and Navy and Special Forces, a separate service, not some kind of operation, but that's all separate and autonomy. 226 00:23:20,700 --> 00:23:28,529 And there's lots of legends about Lithuanian, Polish for Latin and Stalin and Special Forces working with the British and Americans in Afghanistan. 227 00:23:28,530 --> 00:23:32,489 How we are brave, how we have good ones, etc., etc. I don't know. 228 00:23:32,490 --> 00:23:36,420 Maybe you may tell more because when you're sitting in Lithuania you kinda came 229 00:23:36,420 --> 00:23:41,060 to like this kind of stories that you have a really good soldier as a good ones. 230 00:23:41,070 --> 00:23:49,379 I don't know. It's probably British and Americans may say more objectively about that, but the solution is simple. 231 00:23:49,380 --> 00:23:55,860 It's the thing. Just expand our special forces. If they're so good, let's have more good soldiers. 232 00:23:56,700 --> 00:24:04,200 Because even if you look in the Crimea in scenario area, it's not conventional forces fighting, it's small paramilitary special forces fighting. 233 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:10,320 So you need more special forces buy more better equipment, better training. 234 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:20,160 And you may have a small armed forces, but if there will be more Special Forces style, that means that, say, smaller numbers, big in quality. 235 00:24:21,630 --> 00:24:24,830 Is it possible to deliver that? I don't know. 236 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:31,620 And what I'm looking and reading that say, following what is happening with some countries, I don't see that is the right decision if it will be made. 237 00:24:32,220 --> 00:24:40,650 Special Forces are special forces because they are small. You cannot have special forces on massive scale, at least for all countries. 238 00:24:41,580 --> 00:24:47,250 And that costs a lot of money, a physical component. 239 00:24:47,250 --> 00:24:53,010 Also, what is changing? There was changes in laws in Lithuania and Estonia. 240 00:24:53,580 --> 00:24:59,730 We have to say we changed our laws accordingly to Ukrainian situation that if we will have a green, 241 00:25:00,210 --> 00:25:06,000 little, little green men situation, that we could use armed forces in two or 3 hours. 242 00:25:08,250 --> 00:25:13,710 So that means in Lithuania, for example, if we have information that it might be something like in Crimea, 243 00:25:14,130 --> 00:25:24,030 our president may sign the document which will allow military forces to take on the control of particular region and do police work, 244 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:32,350 border control work and the fighting, if it's necessary. Kind of military rule or military law in that particular era. 245 00:25:34,150 --> 00:25:40,270 Estonians are more clarifying, let's say, the infrastructure and political structure who'll be in charge if everything happens, 246 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,050 so to say to increasing power of prime minister? Very much, actually. 247 00:25:45,190 --> 00:25:53,650 Also in Lithuania, we have we decided to have a rapid, rapid reaction forces to battlegroups each 800 people, 248 00:25:54,100 --> 00:25:59,860 which may be reacts from 2 to 24 hours duration in any place in the fairness. 249 00:25:59,860 --> 00:26:06,850 So Special Forces Unit must be in any place in Lithuania in 2 hours time if something happens. 250 00:26:07,310 --> 00:26:17,200 Other disaggregated units in 24 hour, 24 hours at the latest, and it's already on the move from 1st of November. 251 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:27,860 But that is a sad story because what does it mean at least in the that we manage only to have fully manned to battlegroups. 252 00:26:28,340 --> 00:26:35,870 That is how much we have equipment weaponry because we don't have we don't have the threat battle group. 253 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:43,220 We don't have enough people and we don't have enough weaponry to have the third battle group, which could react in 24 hours. 254 00:26:44,450 --> 00:26:53,270 So in some ways, we put everything what we have and we are preparing to use this force and we have all lost accordingly. 255 00:26:53,570 --> 00:26:56,810 But on the other hand, that's all what we have at this moment. 256 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,770 Well, we have we have Special Forces, one unit serving in Afghanistan. 257 00:27:02,780 --> 00:27:08,990 One unit is preparing for certain young guys. And so we may add up maybe another 100 soldiers. 258 00:27:09,650 --> 00:27:18,950 That's all. So that is a situation within and Lithuania is a bigger Lithuania has a bigger regular forces in the form for all three Baltic states. 259 00:27:18,950 --> 00:27:22,310 So you can ask yourself, what is the Latvian Estonian situation? 260 00:27:22,730 --> 00:27:27,770 Latvians are the worst because they don't have enough people and they don't have enough equipment. 261 00:27:27,980 --> 00:27:34,730 Estonians maybe don't have enough people, but they have kind of good equipment and weaponry because they they have a lot of money 262 00:27:34,730 --> 00:27:38,780 and they're spending kind of wisely and buying a new stuff like javelin stingers. 263 00:27:38,930 --> 00:27:45,280 We have, too. But for example, Estonians, they have a bigger stockpile of javelin, for example, than Lithuanians. 264 00:27:48,040 --> 00:28:00,609 So. So that is also a challenge in enlisting ends on a silver lining for the last year we have I don't know I just stopped counting. 265 00:28:00,610 --> 00:28:10,630 But around ten big training exercises, international ones, Americans, British, Germans, Denmark, Germany. 266 00:28:11,110 --> 00:28:19,620 I think now we have a year policing the planes from Portugal, Canada, Belgium, Poland. 267 00:28:19,630 --> 00:28:24,250 So Natal is sending a lot of people for athletes for training. 268 00:28:24,250 --> 00:28:27,880 And for the next year or so we'll have a lot of training actually. 269 00:28:28,420 --> 00:28:38,350 So it's in this case at least, our skills for soldiers are improved, improve very much right now in Lithuania and all the Baltic states, for example. 270 00:28:38,530 --> 00:28:44,019 So they're training with the American company and that companies are having their own striker. 271 00:28:44,020 --> 00:28:49,509 So to see Lithuanian soldiers can touch a real striker and do a tactical exercises 272 00:28:49,510 --> 00:28:54,700 in training because Americans and strikers and it's paid by American government. 273 00:28:55,090 --> 00:28:59,020 That's important, actually, when you start calculating on the costs. 274 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:08,409 And yesterday, Americans, they confirmed that Americans will remain on the rotational basis in Baltic states, 275 00:29:08,410 --> 00:29:13,660 at least for the next year, all the year, maybe even 2016. 276 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,470 It's it'll depend probably how everything will be happening in Ukraine. 277 00:29:19,660 --> 00:29:23,979 Another big task for Baltic states is because we are small, we don't have enough. 278 00:29:23,980 --> 00:29:29,320 People will need the help, we will be attacked. So some our allies will coming in many different ways. 279 00:29:29,530 --> 00:29:35,060 We have must have our infrastructure for. The host nation support facilities. 280 00:29:36,990 --> 00:29:43,319 Railway lines, port facilities, airports, bases, barracks, ammunition, arsenal, everything. 281 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:50,100 So in the next two years there will be just big constructions and buildings in all three Baltic states. 282 00:29:50,580 --> 00:29:53,930 They are happening right now actually. 283 00:29:54,810 --> 00:30:04,740 So for example, Lithuania. So you can imagine we have military bases all over the place, but our capital doesn't have almost nine soldiers. 284 00:30:05,700 --> 00:30:16,509 Military academy. And during all these years, we didn't have enough money or political will to build up somewhere here a military base, 285 00:30:16,510 --> 00:30:22,460 because Belarus is not a question of what is its role and its connections to Russia. 286 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:29,380 So it was decided from next year to build a big military base not far away from the capital. 287 00:30:30,910 --> 00:30:37,690 And that it would be the first Lithuanian original Lithuanian military base because all the other ones are from Soviet times. 288 00:30:38,350 --> 00:30:44,880 Even the buildings are still built by Soviets. And we just make some cosmetic there. 289 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:52,330 Construction that was this way. So. So for the next year, a couple of years, we will be spending a lot of money for host nation supports. 290 00:30:53,080 --> 00:31:03,100 So it's not mere defence intensive weaponry, but more let's say more buildings, more better roads, more railway lines, etc., etc., etc. 291 00:31:03,490 --> 00:31:10,720 Equipment, anti-tank weapons, antiaircraft weapons all through the countryside. 292 00:31:10,990 --> 00:31:16,180 Buying or will buy very soon are armoured personnel carriers. 293 00:31:17,590 --> 00:31:23,319 Estonians already buying. Latvians have an agreement with British company or with British something. 294 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:27,760 Operation Lafiya is have to make a decision next April. 295 00:31:28,540 --> 00:31:37,899 And for example, within is as big question big debate because we are planning to spend in Lithuania money of 1 billion litres that is 296 00:31:37,900 --> 00:31:48,250 around three €350 million actually that is to this year's annual budget of defence we want to spend for the vehicles. 297 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:55,530 So lots of money, lots of decisions, lots of questions about possible corruption. 298 00:31:56,940 --> 00:32:02,460 Do we need at all? That's a conceptual question. What we will do with this armoured personnel carriers? 299 00:32:03,150 --> 00:32:07,830 What is the necessity to have such kind of equipment? 300 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:13,230 Maybe. Let's buy more javelins and stingers. Maybe invest into special forces. 301 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:22,640 Or maybe buy some helicopters. For our Special Forces again, do we need this kind of care? 302 00:32:22,850 --> 00:32:30,950 That is conceptual question sexual. And the problem is that the Minister of Defence and the Armed Forces sometimes are not capable to answer. 303 00:32:30,950 --> 00:32:34,880 Why do we need such kind of equipment? What is the attitude? 304 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:45,320 They start discussing about tracks and wheels, about calibre and some old technical stuff, but no conceptual questions. 305 00:32:45,620 --> 00:32:50,179 Let's say you will have a conscription conscripts. How? 306 00:32:50,180 --> 00:32:54,410 We will connect and unite. Consequences new vis a vis new equipment. 307 00:32:55,760 --> 00:33:03,590 Can we train conscript soldiers to use this new personal care and do it as such coercion at all? 308 00:33:03,860 --> 00:33:10,430 Do we see everything in holistic terms or just we buying different platforms but not seeing to see how they will all unite? 309 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:19,430 That is the question. Estonians are the best ones in this because they spend a lot of money trying to understand how to say. 310 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,910 And in this conceptual level, Latvian Estonians a logical difference. 311 00:33:22,910 --> 00:33:29,810 And Latvians are worse on that. We still have problems with conceptualising some issues. 312 00:33:31,310 --> 00:33:38,870 Okay, maybe going to more moral components. So political will, at least for now, there is political will in all of the Baltic states. 313 00:33:39,170 --> 00:33:43,220 There were signed agreements, as I said, to increase budgeting. 314 00:33:44,310 --> 00:33:47,150 And that is happening in real terms in Lithuania. 315 00:33:47,190 --> 00:33:56,400 We increased even this year by €40 million from extra from our budget just to buy new equipment even this year. 316 00:33:56,860 --> 00:34:04,140 Next year will be more expensive. I feel so Estonians like just keep on going to keeping this 2% level. 317 00:34:04,710 --> 00:34:14,070 So we have a political will, but at least in Lithuanian case, I think a couple of years until it will disappear. 318 00:34:15,790 --> 00:34:18,400 Unless our president, which is a very strong leader, 319 00:34:19,390 --> 00:34:29,050 May said some angry words towards parliament and government and is forced to keep increasing because already we have discussions in Lithuania. 320 00:34:29,350 --> 00:34:33,850 So who will pay for the studies education? Who will pay for social services? 321 00:34:33,850 --> 00:34:39,140 Who will pay for health security? If we spending for the defence is it Russia? 322 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:44,860 So really big threat for us. That is really dangerous question. 323 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:52,900 Also the question of the societies. So that is very important about informational worth, very simple question, 324 00:34:53,110 --> 00:35:03,250 asking all three Baltic states in the media if Russia will attack us, how fast NATO's will send its forces to our help. 325 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:12,180 One day, two days, three weeks. It might be a technical question, but also it's very political question. 326 00:35:12,420 --> 00:35:17,390 If you see that Nader will send forces in three days or maybe a week. 327 00:35:17,940 --> 00:35:23,790 So the answer goes next month. So what the point to be made, though, because in three days we all are occupied. 328 00:35:23,790 --> 00:35:27,770 I all debt. So maybe it's not so good to be in. 329 00:35:29,130 --> 00:35:32,160 That is a Russian informational war in Baltic states. 330 00:35:33,240 --> 00:35:43,480 Constant message in media outlets. And you have to fight back and you have to bring conviction from NATO's headquarters, etc. 331 00:35:43,980 --> 00:35:47,309 We have contingency planning. We doing training. 332 00:35:47,310 --> 00:35:52,200 Everything is prepared. Everything is arranged. Don't be afraid. If there if what comes to worst? 333 00:35:52,500 --> 00:35:56,850 Germany, Poland and Norway, probably the first ones will come later on. 334 00:35:56,850 --> 00:35:59,880 Other countries will follow. But who knows? 335 00:36:01,380 --> 00:36:06,900 So the question of this morale of society is a big question. 336 00:36:06,900 --> 00:36:11,860 And the question is, again, if there will be occupation or some parts will be occupied. 337 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,150 What about the resistance? Should we train our societies? 338 00:36:16,460 --> 00:36:20,930 To be capable to make a resistance. Passive resistance and active resistance. 339 00:36:22,430 --> 00:36:28,700 Should you train that survival skills for the for people in Lithuania, for example? 340 00:36:28,700 --> 00:36:33,100 My generation, I didn't serve the military and I'm too old to serve in the military. 341 00:36:33,110 --> 00:36:37,520 So a younger generation, me maybe will go to military. We are conscription. 342 00:36:37,820 --> 00:36:41,360 The older generation have skills from Soviet times. What about my generation? 343 00:36:42,290 --> 00:36:50,060 How we will get skills to fight? Should we? Should government spend some money for training civilians? 344 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,510 Why not in. Not in volunteer forces, not in paramilitary force. 345 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:58,130 But I see some survival skills training. Should we do that or not? 346 00:36:58,460 --> 00:37:02,720 If yes, who will pay for that? How much money we need? Again, is it worth it? 347 00:37:02,780 --> 00:37:09,170 Is it not too militaristic? The same questions are asked in other two Baltic states. 348 00:37:11,510 --> 00:37:18,620 Estonians are again more. I say Estonians very consistently because they always work concentrated on territorial defence. 349 00:37:18,860 --> 00:37:24,500 They are more focussed on this civilian education of military skills. 350 00:37:24,830 --> 00:37:27,709 Latvia and Estonia didn't spend a lot of money doing that. 351 00:37:27,710 --> 00:37:34,760 And now we have a gap and we have a professional armed forces with some kind of small volunteer forces. 352 00:37:35,510 --> 00:37:42,260 The rest of society does not know how to survive, let's say, in a forest or in the city without electricity. 353 00:37:44,490 --> 00:37:54,120 Without credit cards. Maybe we all, all of us must have some cash at home just in case if everything went down. 354 00:37:55,100 --> 00:38:02,160 So again, so that is a question. And that goes to another big question about conceptual level. 355 00:38:02,580 --> 00:38:12,780 How what is the best way to defend? So in Estonia is having territorial defence reception and understanding. 356 00:38:13,140 --> 00:38:21,780 Latvia and Lithuania war was more on expeditionary forces and they changed their military accordingly in 2005, 2006. 357 00:38:22,530 --> 00:38:28,259 Now what we are debating that the best problem away will be fight back, Russian attack. 358 00:38:28,260 --> 00:38:31,350 It will happen in the cities or urban warfare training. 359 00:38:33,030 --> 00:38:40,709 But then you have a discussion bigger. So if we will fight back in our cities, what about the rest of the thing? 360 00:38:40,710 --> 00:38:44,430 You know, a lot of Estonia, what cities? You can defend everyone. 361 00:38:45,630 --> 00:38:51,000 So some of these probably areas will be left and permitted to be occupied. 362 00:38:51,540 --> 00:38:59,490 That a political question because politicians there must now explain for people maybe that is my native town that is 50 kilometres from Canberra. 363 00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:06,650 So. Looking into history. My town always was occupied in the first hours of. 364 00:39:06,650 --> 00:39:11,690 First of all, war is Second World War. It's Napoleonic wars when they were entering. 365 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:18,410 So basically, if Russia decide to attack, this town is gone, it's occupied. 366 00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:24,499 So you have to tell people living in that town that, you know, you must prepare to live under the Russian occupation, 367 00:39:24,500 --> 00:39:28,640 maybe for one day, maybe for two days, while nature will come, while we fight back. 368 00:39:31,150 --> 00:39:36,750 How to live. How to behave. Should be more active resistance or passive resistance. 369 00:39:38,580 --> 00:39:45,120 And is it politically correct to say that you will be left alone because we have to concentrate on strategic areas? 370 00:39:45,170 --> 00:39:51,079 Now, of course, because they are small ones and we are to fight in the cities is better because to fight in cities 371 00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:56,610 is you are winning time because it's not easy so easily to defeat the enemy in the urban area. 372 00:39:56,730 --> 00:40:00,360 And maybe if you need a one day or two, let's see, that is how you're buying time. 373 00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:12,360 Paul And because we have a history of active resistance against Soviet regime in the late forties, 374 00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,020 early fifties, we have another tradition we call this forest tradition. 375 00:40:16,530 --> 00:40:24,450 There's active resistance everywhere, ambushes, IEDs, whatever you want. 376 00:40:24,750 --> 00:40:27,840 And you have to train this population. 377 00:40:28,650 --> 00:40:33,070 Population must know how to fight active resistance insurgents. 378 00:40:34,220 --> 00:40:44,550 That's in the now more familiar territory. So let's say we have two different interpretations and separate city versus forest, as we call it. 379 00:40:45,510 --> 00:40:49,050 Which way is best? What's what kind of equipment to buy? 380 00:40:50,010 --> 00:40:54,270 Uh, and also that is only our region, but we are native. 381 00:40:54,270 --> 00:41:03,149 Native has a global perspective. If you want to be a good number of Nathan, you must see our forces, which we could be capable sent to out of now. 382 00:41:03,150 --> 00:41:08,310 Syria, Libya, Mali, western Iraq or wherever else. 383 00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:14,970 So how you find the balance between expedition capabilities and multilateral territorial capabilities, 384 00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:19,740 what you will see will be sent away from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, who will remain inside. 385 00:41:20,490 --> 00:41:23,850 What is the balance? 90% to ten 5050. 386 00:41:27,930 --> 00:41:32,160 Expedition expeditionary level. And that is a problem, conceptual problem in political, 387 00:41:32,190 --> 00:41:39,659 political and within that are politicians and some key players are tending to ignore with global perspective. 388 00:41:39,660 --> 00:41:45,030 Natal It seems that NATO's now concerned with the Russia and Ukraine as they keen to forget and ignore that, 389 00:41:45,030 --> 00:41:52,589 saying that NATO has also some some other issues on agenda and when they ignoring that they are not investing 390 00:41:52,590 --> 00:41:59,070 time and money and discussions into preparing some capabilities for global participation of NATO's activities, 391 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:09,780 and that may have some challenges because all countries are planning to send there are only 100 soldiers to an expedition outside their own countries. 392 00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:14,930 That's all. It's a small number, actually. 393 00:42:14,940 --> 00:42:20,640 One company, you may say. So that is our input into global natal agenda. 394 00:42:20,970 --> 00:42:24,660 And we would like that natal will send everything into our countries, not vice versa. 395 00:42:27,330 --> 00:42:31,500 And also there is another conceptual challenges. 396 00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:40,469 I was talking in the fab saying the thing that we don't have a very good tradition of theoretical, conceptual reflection on our military force, 397 00:42:40,470 --> 00:42:50,190 and I would say civil and sanitary, good at, let's say, studying, reading about military theories, military practice and discuss openly. 398 00:42:50,190 --> 00:42:53,490 Like in Britain, like, like we don't have such kind of seminars. 399 00:42:54,180 --> 00:42:57,800 It's difficult to have. And life isn't a science. 400 00:42:57,810 --> 00:43:04,110 They are good ones. They have for the last seven years a think tank which is working only on defence policy. 401 00:43:04,110 --> 00:43:08,760 Question Latvians in Lithuania doesn't have any of such. 402 00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,729 So we don't have a tradition of talking. So let's say when I came back from Oxford, 403 00:43:14,730 --> 00:43:23,370 so we managed to start tradition and Minister of Defence to have a Chatham House rules based discussions between officers, 404 00:43:23,370 --> 00:43:28,800 politicians, experts and media. So next week we will have the third one. 405 00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:35,400 And it's fruitful because for the first time you will see each other in one place and you're training and 406 00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:40,020 you're teaching special military to be more transparent because what happened after the Ukrainian crisis? 407 00:43:42,110 --> 00:43:45,500 Lt people became very interested in military issues. 408 00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:53,810 So for example, if you decide to buy armoured personnel carriers they will thought that will be just inside the military. 409 00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,770 The question solved now societies started asking questions. Why? 410 00:43:58,430 --> 00:44:03,740 Why so expensive? What kind of company and military was caught on guard? 411 00:44:03,770 --> 00:44:07,160 Oh, my God. Why are you asking this question? Just operational military stuff. 412 00:44:07,430 --> 00:44:10,690 No, no, no. People said that is taxpayer money. 413 00:44:10,720 --> 00:44:16,800 We would like to get some answers and we saying that the best way to fight back Russians is another way. 414 00:44:16,820 --> 00:44:19,340 So let's say we have a lot of now experts in military, 415 00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:27,350 former Soviet time officers and people by training in Soviet times or some would say people who were living in Ukraine, 416 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:33,470 United States during Soviet times, they have now they'll have a lot of expertise in saying, no, no, no, the best way is to fight this war. 417 00:44:33,510 --> 00:44:40,360 So let's say we have this now kind of discussion about military issues, open, transparent, 418 00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:48,650 but we have such men advise so many advisors and so radical advisors that sometimes it's difficult to sort it out what is best for us. 419 00:44:48,770 --> 00:44:55,460 But at least military is forced to be how to say more open, transparent, and military is first. 420 00:44:55,700 --> 00:44:59,720 And they now understand that this it's different ages now. 421 00:45:01,150 --> 00:45:03,450 Strategic level and even operational level. 422 00:45:03,460 --> 00:45:11,980 These questions will be discussed openly in society and military will be asked questions and military will be asked to provide answers. 423 00:45:13,030 --> 00:45:15,610 You cannot say that is top secret and I can say no. 424 00:45:17,140 --> 00:45:24,000 If you bring back conscription, if you are buying expensive equipment, you have to explain to society and society will demand. 425 00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,310 Media is furious when they. There are no answers. 426 00:45:29,300 --> 00:45:36,440 And we learning quite, quite fast, for example, very good example is Russia's challenges in the air space. 427 00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,579 Yes. You already hear about this air policing that is increasing in numbers every day almost. 428 00:45:40,580 --> 00:45:45,500 Russia is checking our borders. So it happened a couple of weeks ago. 429 00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:51,020 We find out that it's not Russian planes entering the Lithuanian airspace, 430 00:45:51,020 --> 00:45:56,780 but we find out that from Canadian media outlets because Canadians are now deployed 431 00:45:56,780 --> 00:46:03,109 in Lithuania and we started asking our military why we know about it from Canadians, 432 00:46:03,110 --> 00:46:09,320 why we don't know from our own Minister of Defence and that it was some small scandal and now it's very wise decision. 433 00:46:09,410 --> 00:46:19,200 Every Monday, Minister of Defence publishes a summary of the weekly events and challenges of Russia in airspace. 434 00:46:19,370 --> 00:46:23,870 So every Monday me check how many times the Russians were around our Lithuanian, Latin, Estonian borders, 435 00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:33,170 how many times air policing was activated and planes were sent into the air to check Russian planes that was transparent, 436 00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:42,620 that didn't that wasn't two weeks ago. Our commander in chief has its own Facebook site, which is Google, actually. 437 00:46:42,710 --> 00:46:44,150 And there is a lot of good information. 438 00:46:44,450 --> 00:46:50,480 But again, it was created only in September and if not Ukrainian events, I would say that this wouldn't happen. 439 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:55,670 So overall, oh, in the last one, the big debate and I have some questions about it, 440 00:46:55,670 --> 00:47:02,750 maybe you answer for me the biggest trend and six, a topic now in all Baltic states is a hybrid warfare, 441 00:47:04,550 --> 00:47:14,000 how to fight the hybrid warfare, what is it and etc. and I think it's too much fetishism in this war is put in and nature is using that. 442 00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:20,870 But those I think it's it's became a buzzword which didn't explain nothing but everybody is using now. 443 00:47:20,870 --> 00:47:28,070 Everybody knows hybrid warfare and everybody is kind of experts in hybrid warfare because everybody knows little green man in Crimea. 444 00:47:28,310 --> 00:47:33,740 And they imagine that that that if something will happen, it will be like in Crimea. 445 00:47:33,740 --> 00:47:40,620 And that is hybrid warfare. And I think it's to reduce perspective, to narrow perspective, 446 00:47:40,620 --> 00:47:50,760 and it creates its own problems when people are starting interpreting the fighting and warfare military policy on such little context. 447 00:47:51,870 --> 00:47:59,639 But I will stop here. So it was more factual. But you see that overall in the last eight, nine months, 448 00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:07,379 there is so many changes in all three Baltic states which you can see in for the last ten years ago when we're entering NATO, 449 00:48:07,380 --> 00:48:11,040 there was big movements of soldiers, money, etc. 450 00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:17,010 Now for ten years, we just examined this and it'll be a crucial year fall for the Baltic states. 451 00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:21,600 It's changing radically changing perception, mentality are all armed forces. 452 00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:27,900 And I think some some lesson decisions will be made, already made because of what is happening in Ukraine. 453 00:48:28,230 --> 00:48:35,360 We existential afraid of Russia. Simply put, we are afraid that they will come because it won't be the first time. 454 00:48:35,370 --> 00:48:39,210 And we know from our history how it looked like when they were here.