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Today, I'm delighted to introduce our speaker microphone to our Shaumbra.

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He is former U.N. assistant secretary general political affairs.

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He has 43, 34 years of experience working for the U.N., but also the OSCE.

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And he was in many of the world's trouble spots, and that includes Haiti.

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He's got his start in Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Sierra Leone.

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He also had assignments in Syria, Somalia, the Balkans.

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And it's I have read his index on the ground, knowledge of all those conflicts that we are studying.

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And he's experienced in a range of different U.N. activities that include both the development side,

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the humanitarian side, but obviously also political affairs and peacekeeping.

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And most importantly, he's also a former CCW visiting fellow.

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So without further ado, I'd like to give you the hook,

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and I think you very much think about for arranging it and think of how much for you all to come.

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You know, the argument I want to make today is that the time of war among states is basically finished.

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That's at least what the statistic indications are. What we have to deal with in the future, especially now, is all intrastate wars.

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The intrastate might be a misconception because it goes across often back across

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the border because it defined as wars between government and non-state actors.

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non-State actors very often being 16121 recognised borders.

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So we have often this big regional, a cacophony of intra state loss.

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What I want to say in this one is ORZULAK has become so dominant, and I think in future it will become even more dominant because of climate change,

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because of population increases, because of the economic inequalities, because of the limited resources since all of a sudden 11 billion people.

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But I think with this type of conflict, we can take more. The second argument I want to make this really where I want to spend my time on

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is that we have not found in our response how to deal with intrastate countries.

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That's at least what I would argue. I'm stuck on the other side. So I will talk to you in three levels.

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First of all, tell you what I think is really the difference between war among the states, two wars within states.

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And the second thing is, I will look at the main sort of typical interventions we do in intrastate wars, and maybe none of them really as successful.

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And finally, I will make some conclusions. Why is it that we haven't found the answers to the things?

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And what I suggest, what has to be done in the future?

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I want to emphasise that the first two parts I would call you might not agree with it.

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But I would call on it because they are all political.

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Whatever you think politically, I think that is in my view, you have to see what the discussion would be on the undertaking for growth.

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The last point is long political. And I hope by this time you have not all left the room.

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And you listen to me what I have to say in my offices on the Politico before I saw this,

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when I wanted to make three points about my presentation, because here in Oxford,

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I'm not an academic,

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I'm coming from the practical world and the so I have not made a stretch of all these industry contracts and made some statistics and the whole thing.

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And all of what I do is basically having been 34 years in one country and the other,

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so what have I accumulated some knowledge and I will also bring here most examples from countries I've actually been into,

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not countries that when you have sort of discussed things like this one and I would still say despite all the diversity we have in this,

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in each one, our country is of course, very different.

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And that what I'm saying, I would argue and you argue that I'm wrong, but I think to take a position on this one,

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that these points are applied to all interesting conflicts in one way or another.

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And I can only say that's based on experience, not based on academic research, but that's why we have CCW.

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And let's say something you about CCW. And just this last point I want to make that I believe they often speak about me.

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I usually in many presentations, I get back at least 5 million views on something that is one that I want to emphasise.

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And also the critique I have of course involves me too.

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I was also believing that certain things would happen a certain way and I was actually also an agent for all of these type of things.

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So I was part of this whole thing and also therefore part of the development of the thinking.

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So I when I speak about me, I generally mean the rest.

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It is made class countries. It is not is a critique of the West.

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It's not an obligation you find a conclusion from it is that we have to change our

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policies across the board to so much change how we deal with confidence about us.

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You first say a few things about you. The first time my life apart, you know, it wasn't Iraq, I said.

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But we see the American military. You have lost the war in Iraq based benchmarks and PowerPoint presentations because you can't meet

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an American general without immediately coming to the parliament because some allergic impact.

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Since you paid for my flight, I think I have to bring something it.

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So this is this is a Taylor which comes from the abstract because the data program, they usually are the people who sort of register armed conflict.

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So that was it is very interesting that you see that it starts from the end of the Second World War Two almost today.

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You see that the blue line, we don't have any more of these type of wars.

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These are basically colonial wars. Yes, they are not anymore.

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But the problem, the thing that is worse among states and you see they are less and less.

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We always think that this is actually our problem,

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whereas this one and the grey one that was interesting was this one is where the washed up is out front and dimensions.

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This is where you have a form of dimension that they all intrastate.

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So you see already, right, this is only numbers. How many was defined as having, I think 25 deaths per year or more?

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That's not much. And you see that. But what is not in such a statistics and very often statistics of course,

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like is great is of course one thing is doesn't reflect and that is the Cold War after this time.

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We had a Cold War. Now, we had always assumed these are proxy wars.

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These are just signals that they were no longer proxy wars from here on.

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And the interesting thing is, if I remember that at the time of the UN,

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what we had expected in the political department is that vis a vis a breakdown of the UN system between the Soviet system and the Western system,

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the grip on countries with. And when you think,

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for instance on the Syria only conflict now America didn't want to intervene in a more the you

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can for ask why might solve it wrong and we thought it would increase of wars among states.

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They were suddenly free to settle their borders, their conflicts, their rights.

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Whose resources and order. It's really astonishing what's happened there that actually intrastate wars increased.

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Now they would tell us why, but it's simply a fact of life.

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The interesting thing was it was today a big issue not once among states.

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And for anybody who wants to criticise, the U.N. should not forget the U.N. was created all to prevent wars and nice things,

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never interesting and that we don't have any war anymore.

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This is actually also something to do with the U.N. charter, although getting get much of the second.

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The next one is the technology to make this just click on the right one.

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This is very difficult to read, but it's also a table from them. This is looks now at a time post Cold War.

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And what you see this blue line here.

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These are people killed because you can say, okay, we have so many wars that many of these wars, very few people don't always say.

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Sad about that. Very important. How many people give the indication of the intensity of wars?

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Now you see that it is since 2004, completely flat.

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Never happened in history before for such a long time.

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What do you really have? A second Gulf War from the first Gulf War?

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What this one is this is basically the Eritrean Ethiopian conflict which killed a lot of people.

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In my definition, I would have put it under I'm interesting countries because this is a war after

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they separated from one country where they fought over the problem of the borders.

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It's a typical follow up on a conflict which is actually interesting.

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It only happens that both became members of the U.N. and then statistically we would fall into this line.

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But from the whole type of conflict, this should really be there.

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Then you see that typically the the the traditional wars among states with proper armies are only these little heaps since then.

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So since the end of the Cold War. Wars among states have basically not the economic system they want, not the prime thing.

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And it's the first time in human history that entire states was, of course, always existed.

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And it's the first time that two things happened that they are now becoming the sole concern for security.

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The second thing is that what happens in intrastate conflicts because of globalisation will affect us all.

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Before what happened in Ethiopia, what happened maybe after the revolution, Russia really didn't catch us too much.

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But what happens now? It will catch us all. So it has become interesting, the issue for international peace and security.

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Now let me say a few things about the differences and that this is the most stupid thing I'm doing,

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things like this one because you can't read it, but maybe people one time afterwards, some of it.

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I want to talk, not how to prevent war or armed conflicts.

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I would only talk how to respond.

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Once interstate war in the world, wars emerge or sort of explode into a full fledged wars.

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So it is a response to something that already happens that's very important.

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Prevention would be a completely different thing. Now, what do we do if we have a war?

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So called was always interested in armed conflicts between states and among states.

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The biggest issue is that when you want to end the war among states, you separate armies and you separate populations.

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That usually comes along because it's usually on the borderline anyway. You cannot do that in intrastate wars.

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How do you bring peace to Aleppo? You have the Christians, you have sweet Sunni Arabs and Muslims.

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As Sunni Arabs, you have Shiite are all sort of different religions and groups in the average fight each other.

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You have to find a way to integrate this, and that is far more difficult than this one.

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And because of this one, then you look, for instance, of all the U.N. peacekeeping operations which deal with wars,

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and they are basically only in the first before the Cold War, they were all cease fires.

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You have not a single peace agreement here.

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You always have tried to achieve a peace agreement, a peace agreement,

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because we had to find a way how people who fought each other before can live together without killing their neighbours.

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We shouldn't forget this moment, but it was not.

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The other problem is when you want to end things in this war and I've come afterwards Iran-Iraq war,

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and here in Sierra Leone, there was no negotiations between governments.

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So you had people who had that unique authority over what is decided, usually to sometimes more.

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But Iran-Iraq was what do you do? So the biggest issue was government to government here.

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It's very unclear. First of all, it's governments, non-government actors and are often several months of them also from the government side.

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On the government side, you have very often to the also illegal militia forces and things like this one.

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So the whole thing becomes extremely complicated.

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And on this type of war, the military command and control structure is relatively clear and reliable.

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If Iran decides to end the war, it's a war because their military structure, they would have internal problems and things are not that easy.

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But it is a clear military command control structure.

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You will never have that on the side. And this comes back to the peace agreements by peace agreements falls so quickly apart.

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This is a clear issue of which we don't know how to deal with.

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The other thing, it's international. You see this in wars among states.

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We have a clear international law, relatively clear. It's a U.N. charter and it's a humanitarian law and so on.

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And many other it's somehow defined. And these countries or these governments, we have a number of these international conventions.

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They might not apply to them, but they're still involved. Once you come to the other type of conflict,

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you have a lot of parties which that which would not recognise international law because they have never signed up to it.

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They say that's a Western saying that's, you know, whatever that's to to push us down, whatever.

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There is no international law for intrastate conflicts.

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We try somehow ICC to apply humanitarian law, but it has not gone anywhere.

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Really. It's not automatic with this. Yes.

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There's never signed the U.N., U.N. human rights conventions or you want to take off.

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That means very often that the government acts accordingly.

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You know, that's it also goes outside things.

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The next point, which is so difficult, I say, from the point of view from the U.N., is the role of the U.N.

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Assuming you have the U.N. in this type of wars, it depends on impartiality.

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So in the Iran-Iraq war, we have not ruled out what happens politically in both countries.

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We are focusing of separating the army, someone who technically still thinks impartiality and watching for respect for the U.N. flag,

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because both sides have agreed that we should do that. And therefore, the monitors are very few and very likely out here.

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The U.N. is always party to the country. The U.S. had peacekeepers into the fray of Mali or other things.

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Your party, your party or even the civilians.

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And if you remember the bombing of the UN canal in Baghdad, in two bombings of it, it was in a way illegitimate, actually.

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I mean. Because the Sunni Arabs who opposed what we did saw as being invited by a not legitimate government which was put in place by the U.S.,

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by the by occupation forces. So we were there illegally in this country, and we would take the side of the government of the cross.

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Those I think it's called administrative council at the time being and all of those things and the occupying forces.

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So we were actually part of the enemy.

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And if you have always this discussion before anybody ever accepted to you and flat and now they don't do it anymore.

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And the reason is that before we had many conflicts between states.

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Now we have conflict inside states. The aftermath of the conflict, Mali, everywhere we are, conflict.

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And of course, the U.N. is not more armed.

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You have increased the mandate of peacekeepers and they could forcefully defend the mandate to not only be lightly armed,

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it has my not my, in my view, a great mistake. Then the second was his indicated and their ceasefire agreement.

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We never bother about the post-conflict peacekeeping or anything like this one.

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You just leave these countries.

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You're not going to India and Pakistan to redo their administrations or you don't give humanitarian aid or something like this one,

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this, this, this, this, this doesn't this doesn't exist in this one here.

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It does. And that means here a conflict always means that you want to reform the government or establish a government, maybe a security sector reform,

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then judicial reform, creating human rights commissions and the electoral commissions and all these sort of gadgets.

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And, of course, a lot of development aid and a lot of humanitarian aid here.

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Often the humanitarian development aid is larger than the cost of a U.N. force in Iraq.

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You would never have such. So it's worked much better.

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Also from the internal U.N. unit is, of course, an organisation where every department has institutional interest.

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The conflict in your own back among the U.N. agencies didn't exist because everybody had to work.

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They didn't have anything to develop inside, did nothing do with it. Now we have to work together.

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And that's what goes so terribly bad here.

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It's working together among different parts of the U.N., which have different operating principles and different interests.

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And you have so. That's the only time you look at me, Gordon Dixon.

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We give you this an example. Maybe it becomes clear because these are the two things I was involved in Iran and going off the Iran-Iraq war and.

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And of course, also to Syria out of typical cease fire agreement accepting of U.N. Security Council Resolution five, nine, eight.

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It was accepted and the war ended. There was no fighting anymore afterwards.

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You know, peacekeepers there, about 2400 of them.

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400 of them. No peacekeeper was killed in action during the time because both sides accepted it.

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The population involved to end the war is 85 million.

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Those people who were killed you couldn't get decent enough who were killed in this war was here about 700,000.

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Here we have an impartial U.N. mission. Didn't care about the human rights abuses in Iraq like Iraq.

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Simply nothing better than what would happen politically, even when we had our counterparts on the Iraqi side,

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something the genuine some of the disappeared that we assumed was taken prisoner that were not trusted by Saddam anymore.

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He would never say a word if it was simply focusing on making sure that in certain areas that do move 20 kilometres from the border,

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the other 50 kilometres from the border,

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depending on the type of weapons and things like this one that could be easily monitored by them, by helicopter and things like this one.

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This was, of course, the last the last Cold War.

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I think we should not forget our Western special U.S. involvement on the Iraqi side.

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It would never have been a chemical warfare was taking.

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I've seen it on the other side. It was awesome. Now, look at scenario one.

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They signed a peace agreement with one of the worst peace agreements you could imagine.

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And it was also accepted by the parties. But these parties were meeting outside the country.

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That's not necessarily what the people thought inside. We had here for the country, which had a population of only 6 million people.

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We had 17,000 U.N. peacekeepers, 17,000 compared to 85,000,004 hundred peacekeepers.

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You see how deep the huge differences in this country.

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70,000 people died. So all estimates, he had ten times as many.

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How likely this whole thing was, how easy it was. And that was peacekeeping actually done for?

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It was never done for this type of thing, although we got very, very involved in the Congo and things like this one.

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And of course, here we were part of the conflict actually. The U.N. took over the entire security of the entire country until 2005.

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All the provinces, all the borders. It was all U.N. force. There was no police.

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There was no army anymore. We dissolved police. We dissolved the army.

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We decommissioned everybody.

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We've been decommissioning was so successful that afterwards the town complained that they couldn't protect their fields again by any means anymore.

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And then during the four years I was there, there was only one person killed by a fire.

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And four years in a country before killing was basically a thing of the day.

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I was very successful in doing that, but it was, of course, enormous.

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I mean, if we drafted the Constitution, we did the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

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It has a huge, massive humanitarian assistance to sort of the population that left to be there.

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They have to be brought back there. I mean, it was a massive operation.

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In addition to the peacekeeping and of course, there was all these government institutions, there was nothing like we did here.

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It is so completely different.

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And if you read the latest article from Sydney this year about peacekeepers, then I think she has never been in these missions.

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She seems to ignore that. That goes from one type of peacekeeping to the other.

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She doesn't realise that you're talking about completely different things when you talk about interesting.

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It's just a sort of a continuum. It is not a continuum. It is a huge break.

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And we, of course, tried to introduce a Western model of governance which wasn't here.

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We want to know is based on how many successful elections evolve and whether it's wise to change the political party within government.

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But that happens very rarely. So what I wanted to say was these two of these tables and that's my first point,

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is you have to understand that we talk about two very, very different things, and that really scared you.

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What I want to say to you is. You can't read this all.

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But I just said you know maybe somehow I think for issues here and begin each down into on which I want to

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see what we do with intrastate conflicts and why it doesn't work for us is military based interventions.

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And I really distinguishes between military intervention, direct interventions like the U.S. National Peace Corps and Peacekeeping.

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And I will talk about how we relate with local parties and religion to see if the government and the recognition of armed non-state actors.

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And then I will speak about the challenges to this new nation state,

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nationhood and national various government sovereignty, the issue of sovereignty and the issue of self-determination.

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And finally, I want to talk about peace agreements, elections and the constitution.

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If you don't. The ripple fact, you see.

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In the last ten years, the most severe interventions and intrastate conflicts are from military operations.

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According to the Office of the Conflict Peace Conflict, there are countries that they can program the country.

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You simply looks at our research in 1919 and in 2015, 92% and 93% of the figures of all those people killed in intrastate wars,

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in wars went in those wars where the foreign power had 93%, 11,091%, and last percent, 70, I think estimate was the 89%.

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So around 90% of all people are killed in those four speaking.

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Intervene has something to do with parties that wasn't more important.

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But I think it has a lot to do by interventions, people in a completely different military and government, and especially the American government.

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And, you know, soon those people killed. It's by some estimates, 40,000.

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And it's all by an effort by the Russians.

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I mean, whoever. I don't like the CIA who doesn't. This is the thing.

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Now, if you look at it, there is no international law which justifies human intervention.

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Just in context. I would argue not. Putin would say no, but I would cite past.

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And then we look at this where.

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And you look at the UN charter document. It says for me, what is the revolutionary about the charter?

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Then it says You should not use military force anymore because of our countries.

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But it seems very clearly it is only somewhere.

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It's only for international relations if the territorial integrity of another state is in jeopardy.

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That's how they define conflict. They don't define that this interesting conflict is one such a thing.

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And so it is only the UN Charter is only if you always forget this.

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What we do today is not covered by the charter. The Charter was to prevent wars among states, and we don't have them anymore.

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So if Russia goes into Syria or the United States goes into Syria or whatever, they all do at the time, the justification, the charter even clear.

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I don't know why I don't have enough these documents and they seem clear on the whole thing as it and and it saves.

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You have to trust the Member States to refrain from the any in the international relations as a relation with the nation

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state of from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.

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That's nothing. This is nothing interesting. Edition. Then it says nothing of the president.

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Chavez should authorise the U.S. to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state.

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That means it has to even exclude it deliberately that we intervene in the interest of countries.

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Now, there's always a trick, and that's a trick we used. It's Article 51 and article.

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Article 51 says nothing in the present charter shaped impair the inherent right of individual or collective.

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Not secure the collective self-defence. If any armed conflict occurs against a member state, the species.

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The right to self-defence. This one means that the country is attacked by an outside force.

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It does not justify that the government says, oh, I have a, you know, position I can't get rid of.

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Maybe. Maybe you come in and have me to to to to deal with this opposition.

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It's not the problem we have always used because in the conditioning it was only the West to intervene.

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We have always used this argument saying that collectively, in the eyes of justification, the government,

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government has in mind has to become we have to abide by the charter because I said you might now change your mind,

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because now I shall have to say he is message to Saudi Arabia.

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Turkey doesn't say. I mean, you have many other things on the other stuff.

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You might have to rethink our position on. Especially now that Trump's withdrawing troops from these countries,

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that maybe the West is tired of giving military alternatives to a deep sea field open to others.

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If they would only use the argument you always have used to intervene in other countries militarily, like in the Balkans.

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I mean, what would have happened, James? So I think we have to be hopefully.

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Let me come to peacekeeping. They are involved in peacekeeping now.

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Peacekeeping is not fighting the Chinese. That's not where peacekeeping doesn't exist.

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No. Oh, really? Okay.

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Peacekeeping? No, at the time we have a great deal and don't have a great problem.

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How can an organisation which just rejected always to all involved in conflicts, invite the military to help them to maintain cease fires?

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So they came as a great idea that we have to find people.

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We don't call them soldiers anymore. You call them peacekeepers, which is already a misnomer because peacekeeping, there was no peace to keep.

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It was always a cease fire to keep a peacekeeping force on effect.

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So we called them peacekeepers, but they invented three principles impartiality, mutual agreement and minimum use of force.

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If you think what I said about the Iran-Iraq war, both governments agreed it didn't matter what happened politically.

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Most people are impartial and b they're actually after their money.

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Just want you to sign arms in intrastate conflicts.

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You don't have that. These three principles make absolutely no sense.

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There is no way we would get an agreement from this or from from from other opposition groups.

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That would be very clear. We would never, ever reach an agreement and we are never impartial.

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And of course, we have to be heavy on some types of like which I think is a grave mistake.

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So this what do you do now? And we almost all our interventions now in interesting countries,

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we live on guiding principles for us, which makes absolutely no sense, but we have never changed it.

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Because of the timing, sir, if you go down this one there, we'll have the same problem.

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You know why elections don't work? Why constitutions don't work?

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Why the. Why do you have a problem of sovereignty?

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That's me talking about what state do you know that sovereignty, national sovereignty is not once mentioned in the U.N. charter.

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You know. You always so to mention some of you are trying to you solve with your own you haven't is an adjective but it's one says sovereign equality.

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But it means that all countries have a say you say which they must look at it.

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So it. But it doesn't say that these sovereign. So state sovereignty.

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So we have made this up as the job is far more advanced than we ought to have it.

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The other thing is the whole thing about self-determination.

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It actually was invented by Trotsky, but then propagated by Wilson in the First World War and was not one of the 14 points,

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but basically it was the argument to it to dissolve also an Indian empire and then the politics of Germany after that.

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But we don't know what it means. It never sees it.

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When Woodrow Wilson called by the self-determination of races because there tends to be an issue of peoples not in the UN charter.

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Difficult. A lot of people would, and it's a huge problem because many of the non-state actors are separate movements.

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Let me also take this one very quickly, because it's so important which government is legitimate that if we interview, that's a real issue.

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When does a government is legitimate and doesn't lose its legitimacy?

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Think about Yemen and Yemen. Saudi Arabia says they are invited by President Hadi to go there, but by that time, Hadi wasn't president anymore.

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You ceased to be president in 2012. What happened is that his ambassador still sits in the General Assembly,

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but it's simply because nobody wanted to make a decision against it, because it's not an important country.

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I think reality Hadi is not on that.

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If I understand correctly, on the house arrest in Saudi Arabia, how can we say that he justifies us to intervene in the country under Article 51?

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This is a real issue, but the biggest issue is non-state actors. Nowhere in international law you define non-state actors.

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How do you stop state actors? This is a huge problem today.

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If you look at the world of today, I would say up to 50% of the population in this world live under governments and.

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Think, by the way, one number. It's estimated by 230 that 50% of all city dwellers drift in flux, and that is 3 billion people.

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That's not even substandard houses like in the surroundings of Marseilles or.

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If he calls these people who coach wants him to stay.

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That's a big problem. How do we deal with this ongoing fight with the rest of society?

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Can we really have a society organised which is based with 11 million people,

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half of them organised by principle, which doesn't apply to any congressional, to any new order.

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This is a really big a huge problem. We have to do this. No, let me just make a conclusion here before.

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I've been shocked by you know, everybody is right now I'm waiting for closure and this conclusion today.

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Why do you think we have not responded properly to.

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If this is the end of the. At this time.

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I too we all believed that we are now.

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The only remaining political system is no competition. Everybody would move along except our system with some adaptation or something like this one.

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We've already basically we had the model how to deal with all states who failed.

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And the second thing that we have to solve, we have the power to do with economic military power to do this.

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And I think what we have to realise that a post Cold War area is finished and probably the best time for it is President Trump.

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It's a finish line. It's not that I can write anything. I just want to finish time.

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It means we have to find a different model and why.

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We saw after 91 Life in the West that we didn't need to do it.

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We never spoke about the youth shop anymore. I saw him today, the German foreign minister in the General Assembly.

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And I have to speak the this based on which you mean, of course.

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But whatever just wrote for us and it will be us or there's no global agreement on this future for this.

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And I would say that very well, because we have to stop that.

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Know the other countries we have a problem is a huge population.

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And the chaos that we have to come to terms with that we have to work with other greater powers Russia, China, India, Brazil, whatever.

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You have to come to terms. It's a one that's only one organisation that can do it, and that's the United Nations.

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The charter of the United Nations was meant for countries with different political systems to come together on certain things,

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to accept that war is not the answer, and to accept that some basic human rights, which is the relationship between the states and the citizens.

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So what I want to say to you, we have we have stop.

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That's what I feel. And I think that we have in our interests to make civil war again.

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Why? Because we have. Forget Naples.

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12% of the world's population and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is for.

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You can have so many platforms that you have that you would not accept as far as we have to it, that we cannot dominate the world anymore.

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We cannot tell anyone what we do. We can have these operations.

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We call them operations. Freedom across this country is going to kill people. It is not the the the other things.

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I'm also a strong believer that our liberal values has to be basically developed in the West.

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Free speech responsible for government is in Pakistan.

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This will slowly go forward, but it would not go through its libertarian direction to not go with a regime change agenda.

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Something like this one. If you go into. I think that's because we have to talk about these.