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Today's session, slight difference for the end of term, we all talk a little bit about this book today,

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this instruction three per cent. The challenge for now. So thank you all so much for coming.

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And I have great pleasure energy seeing my colleague, young heart of McClary,

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who's professor of international politics and Department of Physical Science

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at University in Oslo and the Norwegian National Defence University College.

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But she specialises, particularly in European foreign and defence policy and in international security.

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Her work is on the polarisation and fragmentation of modern European politics.

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So we have a bit of work today. Once she aims to better understand the visions of European democracies today and

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what causes them to become divided between you subjects close to of our hearts.

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Importantly, between 1997 and year 2000, Yona served as the deputy foreign minister in Tokyo,

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partner the to the Christian Democratic government when she took that position.

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She was the first woman to hold a high government post Norway since apparently the Protestant Reformation,

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and that's politically important for her because she's not supported after her work as deputy foreign minister.

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She served on the Norwegian Parliament Commission is also proposing changes to Norwegian Constitution for its 200th anniversary.

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She's worked as a member of the National Defence Commission of Norway, sits on the board of Trustees for the Oslo Centre for Peace and Human Rights.

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She's a prolific author. I won't go through quite all of the books, but I did want to mention just a couple.

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One in particular was the United Kingdom's defence.

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After Brexit, Britain's alliances, coalitions and partnerships, which she co-edited with some lunatic,

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called Robert Johnson, and I came out with Palgrave Macmillan in 2011.

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She's also written a really significant work hold power in hard times.

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Can Europe act strategically? Which came out the same year? She's have prolific and hard working.

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Yanna really is. She's also written on Ukraine and the security challenges to Europe and indeed on intervention to human rights in Europe.

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Back in 2002,

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she's the holder of the St Benedict prise convert conferred by Benedict to increase its Financial Italia for her work on European culture,

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politics and 2009. The Pope appointed her a lifelong member of the Pontifical Academy of Science Social Sciences branch.

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She served on the Council for Justice and Peace and consults with the Council for the Family with the Vatican.

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So you have an extraordinary, rich pedigree, Joanna, and more importantly,

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your great colleague really good would have some type of staff with of the century.

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We are going to have some interventions, I hope, from others. Let's see on this page.

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One of our authors on Shauna, who also is one of our authors from the volume.

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I am not going to say anything because make it too long a session, but perhaps you can kick us off that we started.

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Thank you. So thank you very much for all that sounded like a very interesting person you are introducing, as, I think, really amazed.

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Oh, I can counter these or meet these expectations that have now raised tremendously.

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But I will try to say something about how this book was produced and the idea behind it, the rationale behind it.

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And as Rob said, we have we have to expect colleagues from the staff colleagues of Norway, one in the flesh,

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in the room commando as they are to shift from the Navy and the other one who is from air.

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The Air Force is going to join us also digitally.

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So I'm here in Oslo. I know it's edited.

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I spoke with Rob.

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It became a large book of 24 chapters, and the general idea was to discuss what is military strategy today, especially in the European context.

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Do states do strategy all state leaders, governments able to think strategically,

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if at all in a way, is political strategy something that the politicians still do?

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Or is that a foreign notion? Almost. And then, of course, the key question related to that just military strategy making a difference.

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Does it exist in various native countries?

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Does it really matter because we often see that as citizens that it is argued in his book of war from the ground up?

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The tactics seem to be. In a way where strategy ought to be on politics becomes the result of that,

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what happens on the ground is something that hasn't been thought through strategically.

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There is no specification of a meaningful and state political and state for the use of force or for other kinds of strategic activity.

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And we think that this is so important that these days increasingly important because other states use force also increasingly for political ends.

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What I will refer to as political warfare.

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But whether that's a term that is so if we can just look at the sort of layout of the book to the three parts of the book,

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if I'm not mistaken, it's a book with 24 chapters authors from various countries.

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It's it has contains three parts.

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One is the generic part of what you strategy.

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The second one is the part on how how should we think about strategy that challenges the risks of threats today, particularly for Nature Europe?

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And the third part is on the individual native countries not selected for in the way of full

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representation that the major states of Europe are that the United United States naturally,

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is that a NATO strategy is in a prominent chapter in that third part.

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And in the third part, we ask all the country authors to to pose the question Does my country or this country I'm writing about?

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Does it do? Military strategy in any meaningful way?

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Does it matter? Is it just the sort of pro-forma exercise of planning or is there really strategic thinking that matters to the country question?

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And as you can imagine, the replies to all the outcomes of these chapters varies a lot.

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Uh. Well, then of course, you are going to ask, hopefully.

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And I think logically, what do I mean by strategy and what do we mean by strategy?

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And that's the first part of the book The Generic The Part.

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And of course, we have a standard definition of strategy. Ways and means strategic interaction being key.

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That's planning is one thing. It's a linear activity.

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It's a means to an end. But his strategy there will be competitors, adversaries and even enemies.

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Therefore, strategic planning is risky as I develop in my chapter in that in the past, and the risks are not welcome to most politicians,

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but also a strategy is difficult because the outcome the end will never be as the strategy has or date.

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Yet without a strategy, one is completely clueless in the midst of battle in a way.

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And we also discuss then and to what extent can one plan?

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There seems to be an inherent contradiction in strategic planning,

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emphasising plan and then the versatility of a strategy, the need for being able to adapt.

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So we have two chapters in that first section on the so-called adaptive strategy,

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and one can raise the question to what extent is that something you at all?

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Is it a new line in old bottles or is it an heightened awareness of the need for adaptation that it's very difficult to specify a political end goal,

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for instance, for Afghanistan, but it's not being a good example of the lack of a better strategy.

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A lot of tactical operational planning, a lot of good outcomes at the tactical and operational level, at least for quite some time.

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Then sort of the major problem from the very beginning of this 20 year old operation,

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namely the lack of a meaningful political goals for it and creating democracy, etc.

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Our colleague, Ivan the outgoing Typekit,

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wrote an article about Afghanistan entitled Afghanistan as a whole with h o l e and that was not a misspelling.

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So in a way, the the. Difficulty in the complex in complex environments says almost all are specifying a goal beforehand

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is something that preoccupies those that do research on this adaptive model of strategy.

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In the second part of the book, we try to analyse challenges, risks and threat picture.

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And I think here it's very interesting to note is that for Europe, on the one hand,

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there is a heightened sort of conventional risk with Russia massive forces for the

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second time this year on the Ukrainian border by more than a hundred thousand troops.

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This is conventional. I mean, the one that might argue that Russia is quite conventional.

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It's there isn't that big difference between conventional Article five kind of risk in France and great or so Article five of political warfare,

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a sign I will refer to it using George Kennedy's term for it.

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So in a way, we have a heightened conventional risk, so to speak, for NATO.

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So there's a need to deter Russia to to to be strong in the conventional strategic sense.

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But at the same time, there is an everyday warfare going on, which we could turn a political warfare.

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So Article five, which requires sophisticated strategic thinking,

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and I think that's where we find Europeans much less prepared and this is where Europeans are themselves in charge, so to speak.

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A good example is the testing of NATO countries pressures migrants as weapons,

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and that has been used by Russia twice and Norway, Finland, which is 60 now Lukashenko by Morocco and against Spain.

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It was last year a clear political political testing, political pressure sometimes bordering on using force.

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Military force, sometimes not. So is this very interesting picture of on the one hand, they hide the need for understanding the use of force.

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On the other hand, the heightened political nature of this.

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Even though I would say when Russia stirs tension in the US, it's still deniable.

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It's being denied. Yet the reason is not to own a piece of Ukraine.

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The reason is to have a negotiating card. So in the reason this ostensibly political, it's not tied to the territory yet.

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The meetings are very conventional military means of using the army and the special forces.

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So. So is Europe prepared for tackling this?

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Is the risk of cheating ability for dealing with what Ron Johnson and his real include chapter.

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In this part, I think it's Chapter six or nine.

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I'm not sure of where it has. This may take some states cooperate.

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Normal for Europeans, states compete. Also normal for European diplomacy, so to speak.

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But then is another see coercion and force, seeing confrontation and the conflicts of things.

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So there's a whole spectrum of interaction between states today that is not benign,

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but it's not classifiable as being cooperation or even competition, but is confrontation.

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And I think it's very clear that most European states not able to prepare really for this kind of political warfare.

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So in this chapter, we have in this part, we have chapters on nuclear risk threats,

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conventional risk threats, favourites or political terrorist threats, et cetera.

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And in the third part of the book, and a very interesting analysis of NATO's strategic thinking and work on a new military strategy,

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which is, of course, classified, but also the run up to the strategic concept and all the US role in NATO's.

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I think the conclusion to the book,

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the main conclusion has really been or is really that there's the need for strategic seriousness in Europe at present,

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and I have the last slide, if I recall from making them yesterday is really using Ukraine as an example of that euro to call Naito, Naito or Europe.

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I'm sure the state Senator Martin, a surly, doesn't have a strategy for Ukraine,

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Georgia and these states that Russia regarded within the sphere of interest, but which Western countries certainly cannot regard in this way.

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But we are not going to involve ourselves militarily, although there are complaints that the rumours in the press talk in nature.

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What I heard yesterday from an ambassador there of strong U.S. involvement on the military side by now.

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But that's beside my point.

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My point is simply that without them, the map of a strategy without having thought about strategy, to what extent will one get involved?

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On the one hand, one cannot say from the western side that it's OK to do as you please because these are not the EU and NATO members.

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On the other hand, and one doesn't want to owe Ukraine will get involved militarily.

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So a strategy has to be found where whereby western states use other means, economic means,

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political pressure, etc. and that has to be thought about before the package.

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Now we will maybe again be caught in a reactive mode, having to scramble to find the way forward.

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So the need for strategic thinking on the political side and for the use of force as the states ultimately will not always will ultimate.

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But the states too is indeed quite lacking in many European states,

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although France and Britain are certainly exceptions to this with a very recent comprehensive strategic documents.

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So Rome, I think that was my introduction, and I leave the floor to you and to the others, and I will be happy to discuss and take questions.

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You know, it's very, very kind of you. Thank you so much. I'm not sure who's going to go next, whether you can go.

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OK, so, so hold on others. We'll come to you quite soon.

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But let me introduce briefing sheets.

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Steinitz, also captain section head of military strategy and joint operations at the Norwegian Defence University and Staff College,

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and also lots of service, both in international and the Norwegian national staffs.

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He served a Norwegian joint headquarters, and I should just point out as well that he's been part of the UK's own maritime battle staff,

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combined joint operations, the Sea Centre of Excellence in Norfolk, Virginia. So he's had an American experience too.

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And it's we should probably just use the expression Ubiquiti, I think,

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to describe naval officers in future because you've served everywhere in every ocean.

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Do you want to just say a few words to a stone about your own work? You did, you know?

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And thank you very much for the nice introduction,

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and I have to add to that that I've just joined the staff colleagues from the joint headquarters when this book was sort of starting to to be.

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People want the idea and I was dragged into it, and I really it was a really, really interesting experience.

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I have to say and represent what this book actually is.

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I will have to say it's a nice piece of work that brings practitioners and academics

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together in order to have a balanced view on the challenges and the idea for this chapter,

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which was basically the maritime strategy, NATO's maritime strategy and challenges.

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It was captured when I was deployed on a German frigate doing an American led coalition

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operations CTF 150 in an operation Norway strategically didn't support CTF 150.

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Yes, hunting terrorists in the middle of the time where pirates and the pirate situation sort of bloomed in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean,

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and suddenly you came along and dared to counter piracy operations and Naito came along.

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And we all know that who is contributing, which ships to NATO and to EU and to American?

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LED coalition operations, it's more it's a lot of the same nations,

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and there is a challenge related to how do they do this and what they need to actually do.

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What was this? The target aim for Naito to be in in the Gulf of Aden?

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Unless, you know, it's all about being relevant, which probably is a good reason for why they did it.

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So that was the idea. I was curious about that.

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So, so and we have to remember that us, it's not that long ago, even though it is 1990.

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Admiral Kelso, CNO, U.S. Navy, said that we don't need a national strategy anymore.

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Cold War was over. There is no competition in the maritime domain.

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And when we did maritime security operations, the Naito Maritime Strategy is actually from 2011.

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So in the middle of the time when Naito and others were doing maritime security operations, they developed their strategy.

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So this it's no surprise that this strategy is very much focussing on on maritime security operations.

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So when the eu-nato on all of us, we're sort of hunting terrorists chasing pirates in the Gulf of Aden,

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Russian Navy was undergoing modernisation of process missiles, submarines and it was not paid a lot of attention to.

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It wasn't unknown, but it was not in the focus of people that develop strategies and plans.

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So. Yeah.

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Naito had a strategy from 2010 11, U.S., U.K. also, her maritime strategy is U.S. still have maritime strategy,

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and they're doing a little bit of comparing the demands on strategies in the chapter.

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And U.S. strategies are still naval, still maritime.

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UK strategies are sort of being brought in towards an all of government strategy looking into the total picture.

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Global Britain being may be the last piece in that respect.

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So when we looked into this, the question we asked What about technology?

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Is technology actually and adversary technology and developing of that I challenge solid submarines,

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long range missiles introduced by Russia and China.

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We look into those and basically they are they have an impact and that would have an impact on how we develop maritime strategies also in nature.

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But even the only Chinese not representing a direct threat to NATO, I mean, the U.S. is very focussed on China.

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And if the US is focussed on China, it will have an implication for NATO that it's out of the question.

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We think no. The conclusion we made to make this a short and brief romp is that the technology is definitely a challenge,

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but we ended up with the fact that gold plating maritime structures in nature and in the western world is extremely expensive.

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We have some examples in the chapter tied 42 to type 45 in the UK, 14 to six.

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There are several examples of the single class big ideas of 32 ships,

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ending up with three due to cost and challenges the Gerald Ford class carrier extremely expensive.

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You've had your discussions in the UK as well related to carriers, carrier strike groups and the consequences of having an operational carrier.

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Strike groups is brings basically with it the rest of the Navy.

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When you are deploying it, so technology high end front edge is expensive.

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Numbers are getting reduced. It leaves big gaps.

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Open gaps when Queen Elizabeth goes to the Far East.

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What is left in Europe, that is sort of questions where we are looking into and the challenge the biggest challenge relate to.

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Basically, we say it's about numbers, it's quantity versus quality.

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Mathematically, shapes can do the same when it comes to technology.

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Number of missiles, range and everything. But if you only have that number of ships, it gets very difficult for Naito to have a maritime strategy.

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And we have seen a lot of examples, all native not able to fill its standing naval groups.

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Why is that? Well, it can be priorities for four nations, but mainly it turns out again to be about numbers available.

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Numbers for native Norway had command of S&M and you want standing Naval Maritime Group one just recently.

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As of two many months of that year, the Norwegian frigate, the command ship,

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sailed alone with a German tanker going into the Baltic Sea, showing the flag.

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I don't know if that you think deterrence by that, but you know, very small group.

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And why isn't nations actually filling up as they are supposed to do?

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That's the question we are asking, and it turns out to be novice.

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I think I'll stop there. Thank you much to Super.

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A useful illustration of just one of the chapters and some of the dilemmas and problems that we sort of face on this.

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I'm hoping that you are on the line. Let me just briefings you see if you're still there. Anders is a colonel,

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currently associate professor in pedagogy at Norwegian Police University College and Norwegian Defence University College and DCU in Oslo.

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He's formerly been the research and development director of the Command of Staff College Pass Programme,

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director of the UK's Master's Programme in Military Studies.

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He's editor in Chief of the Spring, A Handbook of Military Sciences.

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He's the president of the International Society of Military Sciences.

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Is AMS as Wales, as a member of the Editorial Board of the journal Armed Forces and Society.

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And we've got all sorts of plans, some great plans underway, which we'll hear about this morning.

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Anders, do give us your pitch, please.

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Oh, Rob, and all the rest of you. Well, and as Robert saying at the time of death, the chapter of this book was developing.

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I was there. I was the programme director of the Master's Studies in Military Studies at Innovation Defence University College in Oslo.

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The reason why I'm mentioning this is because the chapter we wrote, making sure I have a short presentation of it and I'll do well before I start.

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So I hope you can see see the slides that we can.

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Yes, go ahead. So, so I'll accept it was the making of military strategy, the gravity of an equal dialogue.

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I co-wrote this with my colleague working on this, and the reason why we did it was partly because from our teaching, our staff,

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college students may just be coming to town colonels we had over the years under

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the impression that they were struggling with the concept of military strategy.

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What is it here? Doesn't belong to what we put into it?

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Where does it come in into action?

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So at the same time, many of our students had served in the Baltics, Iraq and Afghanistan, and they have sort of encountered,

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is this this mismatch between the political aims that they were reading about in the newspapers and the tasks they were given on the ground?

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So when you learn that the approach this project said that they wanted people to write in it, we suggested the chapter on on on this topic.

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So I'm not going to go to the chapter you are able to read about, but I'm just going to give you a quick teaser, enter into it,

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and I'm going to do this by showing you this sort of so you and to these small groups of figures that you draw within the group for

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the project and what you are talking about and the challenges that that are where they're just military strategy they belong to,

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to the political side of the discussion agenda, the political agenda between the military and the civilian society, or does it belong to the military?

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That was the first sort of issue that our our students were facing.

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And as you think about the military strategy seen from dawn to pass from a political perspective,

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military strategy is sort of just it's all over the bottom layers of deal of the day every day dealing with real conflicts.

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So they think about military strategy as something that they can department lies down to the military.

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Well, the military's military strategy becomes sort of the top echelon of operational art.

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So in the military, you stretch up tours. Then you talk about military strategy.

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So already there is a sort of a disconnect between how we talk about military strategy in those two communities.

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So we tried to kind of try to discuss a bit about it.

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How how, how is this and what are the consequences of such an understanding?

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So, so we think about military strategy in this chapter as containing both civilian and military elements,

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and they belong somewhere in the nexus between statecraft and operational art.

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So that's sort of our starting point. Let me try to look into some of them,

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some of the doctrines and to see if there is consistency in how we talk about it and how we and how it is to U.S. markets in the region.

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Joint Operation Doctrine describes describes military strategy as about translating politics and political ambitions into military strategy,

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objectives and ambitions. So if it sounds pretty much like survey ends ways and means discussion,

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but then in this sort of very talented Tony and we're looking at the divide between the civil society and military society.

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So the sense in the recent way of theorising about this is that there is a sort of a line drawn in the sand.

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It said it, it's like a war, but it's just it's a line drawn in the sand.

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You know, militaries don't cross it over to the civilian side and the civilians don't cross over to the military.

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Well, we of course, know that this is just an arc to.

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The goal they are looking at, it is not necessarily the way it is in reality, so so when we look further into it,

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for instance, we look at the UK perspective the way the UK sort of described it in their joint publications 001 from 2014.

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They say the military strategy has a role to play in developing policy through delivering military advice,

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including ultimately the advice delivered by Chief of Defence Staff to the Prime Minister.

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It's not that it's completely different from an invasion perspective, but it's it emphasises the military role as an adviser.

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And it depicts a much clearer responsibility to participate in the building of policy.

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Television innovation in the framing does so in a sense.

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We've actually talking more of something like this. So it crosses each other's boundaries, though,

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so it's more like a grey zone and and you call this sort of political ambiguity that we have to discuss.

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So in the chapter, we try to try to discuss the phenomenon of military strategy,

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and the last stories of the British perspective is much more like all of its perspective of how we see the British Intelligence Society.

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So this is basically what the chapter does. It discusses this way of looking at military strategy.

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Where does it belong? What does it entail and how?

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How do we make sense of it?

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I think I'll stop there from our role because I think that gives sort of a broad understanding of the chapter on and this very,

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very kind of been very clearly done us as classically you do.

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You've got a very thorough understanding of how theory can be understood through practise and vice versa, which is very useful.

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I'm not going to add anything at all to the bottom because these guys have done such a super job.

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It's no, well, I race where we're sort of up to time ready.

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We've had interesting discussion about military strategy.

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What is it? How is it implemented? Why is it missing in action, which I think was this time one of the phrases that you all use, right?

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The very beginning of all our projects. We've heard a bit about civil military.

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I'm not gonna say cooperation, but at least differences of policy, differences of perspective.

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And one of these, essentially there, is that there are always differences of primacy that's not new, regardless of the international situation.

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Civil servants, those unsung heroes and heroines of, you know, of the UK government and our governments, they the continuity people, you know,

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ministers may have particular agendas in a very short period of time, but they are they were important figures in in this process, too.

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And so that signature dialogue is not just in politicians and military personnel.

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Let's just keep that in mind as well. I think we got three things like we came out of this strategy we're hearing it's become rather defensive

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for Europeans and for most people whom I think might even have become no more than risk management,

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which is quite worried because that's not what it originally set out to be at all.

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It's used by some actors that risk management risk is used as leverage.

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And I think that's a really interesting problem for us to solve is how willing

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certain actors are in the world at the moment to use risk to their advantage.

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And we heard about political warfare in great depth. You know, George Cannon's work seems to echoed still down the ages for us.

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Suddenly, we was about strategy as executing policy for foreign policy goals, maximising freedom of action.

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Maximising choice, I think is important for Western democratic nations.

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And it's funny we have to wait and see. But this is the strategy is about decisions.

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And maybe the lack of strategy is a lack of courage to make really difficult decisions

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at the moment in a geopolitical environment because seven years since the 1990s,

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we've actually forgotten how to take these really, really tough decisions.

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But ultimately, if you excuse the fact the British prime minister thinks there's a Peppa Pig strategy, forgive me.

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Forgive me, forgive me. That actually is a reminder that war is far too serious.

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A business and strategy supports business to leave only to politicians.

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Military personnel have a role to play. But the encouraging one I want you to get away with is that actually,

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perhaps the reason there isn't a clear military strategy for native nations is because NATO's already won.

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It's already got what it wants, which is a peaceful world.

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Rules based international system, international by design and its military forces are rather like a fleet in being it exists.

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And that is itself the success story the nightmare been. Since 1949.

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So I want to say thank you to on Norwegian team, who are only one small fraction of the alliance effort.

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When is this potential? First, this short as we have our Canadian sort of attention with this is.

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So thank you to all of you for the project and particularly to the Norwegian government who actually put up the money to do this.

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So I'm really grateful for those are my fellow authors, particularly China.

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Anders Yang and all the others who are not here represent say thank you to Hearst as well.

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And if you are looking for a Christmas present for the price of a small bottle

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of wine or even a fraction of a bottle of champagne thirteen pounds on Amazon,

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apparently you can get yourself a military strategy in 21st century, the challenge for next time, and we're always happy to sign copies for you.

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Thank you very much. Thank.