1 00:00:00,540 --> 00:00:06,120 He writes, Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to make a start this evening. 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:10,440 I think it's probably about 11:30 at night. 3 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:18,750 Where you are, Roger. It's it's 17 01 by UK time. 4 00:00:18,750 --> 00:00:26,280 First of all, a warm welcome to everyone for this first seminar of CCW. 5 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:34,800 This is a very special seminar because it's a bit of a one off warm piece of Oxford has no events during the course of the year, 6 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:43,200 but this is the first time that we have had the opportunity to host it and certainly, obviously the first of 20 22. 7 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:51,150 This event really brings together several different organisations, not just CCW, 8 00:00:51,150 --> 00:01:00,960 but also crick the sense of the resolution of intractable conflicts led by Lord John Aldous and indeed Ox Peace as well, 9 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:06,630 who I'm delighted that some members of Oxbridge have actually joined us this evening for this call. 10 00:01:06,630 --> 00:01:13,770 Our speaker this evening is actually very distinguished and far too modest, often to admit it. 11 00:01:13,770 --> 00:01:18,930 Political Fairness Officer in the United Nations in the Department of Political Affairs and Peacebuilding, 12 00:01:18,930 --> 00:01:25,740 he's worked on reconciliation in Yunona, on an actual fans in NAMI. 13 00:01:25,740 --> 00:01:31,110 He's been a writer for foreign affairs and the national interest. 14 00:01:31,110 --> 00:01:39,300 Famously, he's also a reformer. He is a great believer in the reform of the United Nations perspective from a young person's point of view, 15 00:01:39,300 --> 00:01:46,260 but also in terms of its organisational management and cultural change as part of a team that looks at that, 16 00:01:46,260 --> 00:01:57,060 particularly in the peace and security area. What Roche has been doing is looking specifically when he first came to set ideas 17 00:01:57,060 --> 00:02:02,970 about narratives and how important narratives are in shaping modern conflicts. 18 00:02:02,970 --> 00:02:09,600 But this evening, [INAUDIBLE] be talking a lot more about the qualities of the character of peacebuilding. 19 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:16,850 So, Roger, thank you so much for joining us. You. 20 00:02:16,850 --> 00:02:20,390 Thank you so much, Rob, for that kind introduction. 21 00:02:20,390 --> 00:02:33,590 Uh, you know, I hope I'm audible to everyone, and I would very much love to do this presentation in person, but unfortunately even did not permit. 22 00:02:33,590 --> 00:02:40,370 But I'm glad that so many of so many colleagues at Oxford and perhaps elsewhere, 23 00:02:40,370 --> 00:02:48,250 are able to join today, thanks to the fact that it's being done remotely. 24 00:02:48,250 --> 00:02:58,560 I would like to just maybe I hope I can share my screen if you'll permit. 25 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:05,150 Please tell me if you can seat. 26 00:03:05,150 --> 00:03:11,500 Yes, that's coming up. Yes. Excellent. Thank you. 27 00:03:11,500 --> 00:03:21,370 You know, when Rob suggested that I speak, I was and I had, I came up with this with the phrasing of this topic. 28 00:03:21,370 --> 00:03:28,270 And I told a friend about the topic that I was going to speak on and this friend said, 29 00:03:28,270 --> 00:03:34,970 Really, the U.N. and what exactly does the UN bring to the table? 30 00:03:34,970 --> 00:03:50,030 And my impulsive response was, well, obviously the table so that I, you know, in fact, is something that has I find myself indoctrinated with, 31 00:03:50,030 --> 00:03:59,060 it's something I fervently believe in that the singular contribution of the United Nations to the 32 00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:07,760 cause of peace over the last two and four years has been in bringing the table itself for Bali, 33 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:16,200 for the police of Peace. But to take a step back and to look at. 34 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:26,560 Peace itself. You know, the ancient Romans used to believe that the war and peace are Janus like, and it's perhaps fitting, I thought, 35 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:37,720 since we are in January to reflect on this, how the Romans believed that we moved from war time to peace time. 36 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:43,300 So it's it's a pretty simple. It's a transition of sorts. 37 00:04:43,300 --> 00:04:50,540 And without attaching too much importance to either, this is indeed a fact of life. 38 00:04:50,540 --> 00:05:04,870 We have. Over generations come to look at war with all we see that war brings out the best and also the worst in us. 39 00:05:04,870 --> 00:05:10,750 We have, at the same time, come to believe that war is an anomaly. 40 00:05:10,750 --> 00:05:18,190 But what if it is not an anomaly? What if he studies the anomaly? 41 00:05:18,190 --> 00:05:30,960 I'm someone who. Believes strongly that in fact, we are if we look at things in the last 20, 25 years in the so-called long peace, 42 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:39,180 there hasn't been a single year when the world has not seen a war in one geography or another. 43 00:05:39,180 --> 00:05:48,570 So studying peace is indeed a critical need of courage, and just as victory in war is no accident. 44 00:05:48,570 --> 00:05:57,520 Victory in peacemaking. Is not it not, nor is it an accident, nor is it simple. 45 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:04,790 And this is where the one institution that in which. 46 00:06:04,790 --> 00:06:10,780 The world, the nations of the world have entrusted their fate. 47 00:06:10,780 --> 00:06:24,050 I have hope, which you could say embodies our faith that in the ideal that the suffering of one is the suffering of all and that all of us. 48 00:06:24,050 --> 00:06:33,140 Are bound to try every possible means before taking the violence to resolve disputes, 49 00:06:33,140 --> 00:06:44,200 and that we have a duty in fact towards the generations to come by pursuing the course of peace. 50 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:56,100 In fact, the preamble of the United Nations starts with these lines to save we the peoples of the world, having determined. 51 00:06:56,100 --> 00:07:03,810 To save succeeding generations from the skulls of our resolve that. 52 00:07:03,810 --> 00:07:08,150 Two schools of thought. And. 53 00:07:08,150 --> 00:07:22,850 For all of my esteemed friends in uniform, I think no one bears the brunt of the combat with the brunt of hostilities more than a soldier. 54 00:07:22,850 --> 00:07:27,920 In fact, you'll probably be able to testify to it the best. 55 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:38,810 But as a civilian who has also had some experience of living and working in war zones, I can say that war is ugly. 56 00:07:38,810 --> 00:07:47,540 War is a nasty, ugly, absolutely horrid business and discourse that it leaves behind. 57 00:07:47,540 --> 00:07:58,480 Stay with us for generations to come. But the way we understand war is often one of hostilities between our countries. 58 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:03,400 In fact, when the U.N. was set up, the whole, you know, in the shadow of World War Two, 59 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:16,870 there was this idea that the U.N. would act as a platform that would reduce the asymmetry of information between states and that member states would 60 00:08:16,870 --> 00:08:23,080 thereafter be bound by the resolutions of the Security Council and therefore 61 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:30,160 that we would perhaps be closing the curtains on interstate warfare itself. 62 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:36,940 Now, while that did not happen, as we've seen repeatedly over the last 25 years, 63 00:08:36,940 --> 00:08:44,900 what we did see is that the number of interstate wars as well as somewhere that intensity has. 64 00:08:44,900 --> 00:08:54,220 Reduced. Last year, there wasn't a single major interstate conflict. 65 00:08:54,220 --> 00:09:02,290 I hope I'm not when we're doing something, but there wasn't a single significant interstate conflict that happened in 2021. 66 00:09:02,290 --> 00:09:06,430 In 2020, we had the Armenia Azerbaijan conflict, but they did. 67 00:09:06,430 --> 00:09:16,330 But of course, our newspapers, our TV channels are as a social media was full of pictures of conflict and suffering. 68 00:09:16,330 --> 00:09:21,340 But these were coming from civil wars. 69 00:09:21,340 --> 00:09:31,000 Not so much interstate, but interstate wars. But this distinction is extremely important for the. 70 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:32,710 Suffering is, of course, the same, 71 00:09:32,710 --> 00:09:43,960 but the approaches that we take towards addressing them towards addressing hostilities and suffering is different when it when it comes to civil wars. 72 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,100 And this is why we have seen that today. 73 00:09:48,100 --> 00:10:01,420 In fact, 70 percent of U.N. peace operations are in fact located in geographies where, which, which have an environment of civil war. 74 00:10:01,420 --> 00:10:12,920 Civil wars are not only. More increasing in incidence now, but they're also lasting longer than ever before. 75 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:22,940 An average civil war. David Armitage, a very respected expert on this in this on civil wars. 76 00:10:22,940 --> 00:10:29,630 He has calculated civil war the last four times longer than an interstate war. 77 00:10:29,630 --> 00:10:34,730 And what we are seeing now is that these civil wars, whether it is Syria, whether it is Yemen, 78 00:10:34,730 --> 00:10:44,330 whether it is Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, these have increasingly become the norm. 79 00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:56,300 And what is more distressing is the nature is a characteristic of these civil wars. 80 00:10:56,300 --> 00:11:06,200 We are ever coming to see we have come to see certain developments in the way these wars were fought in the 90s. 81 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:15,890 For instance, we had the Civil War in Sierra Leone, Liberia and in the Balkans in the 90s. 82 00:11:15,890 --> 00:11:24,170 Now compare that with the ones that we see now, Yemen and Somalia, for instance. 83 00:11:24,170 --> 00:11:28,280 And we see a few major changes. 84 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:38,270 It's not just in the fact that we see that sometimes the use of air power. 85 00:11:38,270 --> 00:11:43,850 We there was some use of air power in Sri Lanka as well as we remember. 86 00:11:43,850 --> 00:11:57,380 But we see now that even air power has come to a quieter, you know, a different meaning altogether with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. 87 00:11:57,380 --> 00:12:05,090 We see that. The use of irregular forces was always there. 88 00:12:05,090 --> 00:12:15,530 But what we're now seeing is a case of the use of frankly mercenary groups such as in Mali and, you know, Libya, 89 00:12:15,530 --> 00:12:25,350 we see non-conventional warfare tactics, increased use of IEDs, especially in, for instance, in Mali, Somalia. 90 00:12:25,350 --> 00:12:34,460 The U.N. has in Somalia is the single biggest, single deadliest mission for U.N. peacekeeping anywhere. 91 00:12:34,460 --> 00:12:43,810 And. We are beginning to see that. Somewhere the lines between. 92 00:12:43,810 --> 00:12:55,360 What are perhaps in a civil war or civil war, perhaps that at the start with an insurgency and then, you know, acquired a larger dimensions? 93 00:12:55,360 --> 00:13:02,380 We see that the the lines between the use of terrorist tactics by an insurgent group and. 94 00:13:02,380 --> 00:13:06,430 Terrorist groups actively engaged in a civil war. 95 00:13:06,430 --> 00:13:14,590 Getting blurred and on top of this, we see. 96 00:13:14,590 --> 00:13:21,640 A retail ification of conflict. Which means that any number of actors. 97 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:35,890 Ah, it's become the cost of undertaking of running in Malaysia, the cost of engaging in conflict has gone down substantially. 98 00:13:35,890 --> 00:13:47,640 And all of this is being fodder. Fuelled through war economies and the advent of people financing. 99 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:54,630 We've seen this in some theatres along with other forms of illicit economies has made it. 100 00:13:54,630 --> 00:14:01,530 Increasingly difficult for sanctions and embargoes to work, 101 00:14:01,530 --> 00:14:13,380 these mechanisms that the international community had to tamp down on conflict seem are increasingly fragile. 102 00:14:13,380 --> 00:14:22,740 And last but not least, the increasing phenomenon of proxy wars by proxy wars are perhaps as old as warfare itself. 103 00:14:22,740 --> 00:14:30,690 But what we have seen now is that in nations undertaking. 104 00:14:30,690 --> 00:14:36,450 Proxy wars in geographies far beyond their own borders. 105 00:14:36,450 --> 00:14:45,540 And this was a capability that was perhaps available once upon a time, only to not too long ago, in fact, only two major powers. 106 00:14:45,540 --> 00:14:52,280 But now we see regional powers. 107 00:14:52,280 --> 00:15:01,870 And in fact, countries which are perhaps, you know, still large scale importers of arms themselves. 108 00:15:01,870 --> 00:15:13,180 Providing arms to in proxy wars to irregular forces in in a third country. 109 00:15:13,180 --> 00:15:19,600 So this has made proxy wars. These proxy wars, in fact, 110 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:29,560 have meant that attaining a consensus or attaining any kind of a conclusion to a conflict by 111 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:36,020 bringing the actors and that the local actors together has become increasingly difficult. 112 00:15:36,020 --> 00:15:51,640 Now, why you mentioned this is because today, in fact, most of the as I mentioned, most of the UN's work is. 113 00:15:51,640 --> 00:16:04,090 In fact, in geographies where we have civil wars, active civil wars, and we see that except perhaps, you know, for peacekeeping operations, 114 00:16:04,090 --> 00:16:15,040 the rest are all actually dedicated to looking at addressing conflicts that are actually at the various stages. 115 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:22,840 In other words, and this is that they are either they're nowhere close to a resolution. 116 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:30,470 They are, in fact, if at all they're getting, they're getting exacerbated by the DE. 117 00:16:30,470 --> 00:16:36,470 In 2018, the secretary general aware of this. 118 00:16:36,470 --> 00:16:43,240 Came up with the concept of sustaining peace. This is something that the UN and World Bank work together. 119 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:54,030 The sustaining peace is is a concept which involves the prevention of conflict at various phases. 120 00:16:54,030 --> 00:17:00,450 Whether it is outbreak, the continuation, the escalation or recurrence. 121 00:17:00,450 --> 00:17:06,090 Now, if you'll pardon my childlike scribble across the screen, this arrow, 122 00:17:06,090 --> 00:17:15,720 which is meant to show how there is no it's hardly a straight line from our outbreak to recurrence, as you know. 123 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:23,250 And at each stage the UN has tried to create. 124 00:17:23,250 --> 00:17:37,320 A mechanisms to address each phase of a conflict, for instance, the UN now increasingly uses preventive diplomacy, 125 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:47,550 which is a way off, which is often carried out behind the scenes, as some of you are aware we do. 126 00:17:47,550 --> 00:18:00,690 There is a standby mediation team, a team of experts at that the Secretary-General can tap into at a moment's notice and at any point in time. 127 00:18:00,690 --> 00:18:10,410 And we see and I'll come to how we observe and monitor conflicts when we see that there is a conflict in the offing. 128 00:18:10,410 --> 00:18:22,860 The standby team is put into is activated and they work together with the UN civil service in 129 00:18:22,860 --> 00:18:32,100 in addressing the conflict before it escalates to a point where active hostilities even start. 130 00:18:32,100 --> 00:18:44,600 Similarly. When it comes to when conflicts escalate to a level where they require active intervention, 131 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:49,980 the secretary general employs a variety of tools that just come through. 132 00:18:49,980 --> 00:19:00,250 And when? It looks like there are certain conflicts that are perhaps over, but not quite over, 133 00:19:00,250 --> 00:19:10,570 because sometimes conflicts as we know of go through tend to become chronic and they and it is very important 134 00:19:10,570 --> 00:19:18,640 to address the root causes of conflict in society and to prevent these cycles of conflict from continuing. 135 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:26,590 And in such cases, there is need, especially when perhaps international aid is not so forthcoming. 136 00:19:26,590 --> 00:19:40,540 There is need for active investment and to ensure development and to in such a direct in a directed way so as to prevent recurrence of conflict. 137 00:19:40,540 --> 00:19:49,630 And that's where the UN's Peacebuilding Commission and the Peacebuilding Support Office, their services are called in. 138 00:19:49,630 --> 00:20:00,610 The UN has something called the Peacebuilding Fund, in fact, which addresses a very rich puts and substantive amount of money through civil society, 139 00:20:00,610 --> 00:20:12,790 in particular in geographies which are fragile, which are just in the process of recovering from a conflict. 140 00:20:12,790 --> 00:20:15,220 Everyone knows about blue helmets. 141 00:20:15,220 --> 00:20:29,020 The UN is almost synonymous when they when anyone talks about the U.N. and peace operations, the first word that people think about is peacekeeping. 142 00:20:29,020 --> 00:20:36,460 So that's so I will not go too much into peacekeeping, but I'd like to talk about peacemaking without the peacekeeping. 143 00:20:36,460 --> 00:20:42,850 Peacekeeping is, in fact, increasingly not the norm. 144 00:20:42,850 --> 00:20:55,450 The Security Council over the last 20 years has become increasingly reluctant to authorise large footprint peacekeeping operations. 145 00:20:55,450 --> 00:21:12,310 In fact, I think Mali was MINUSMA in Mali was probably the last big peacekeeping operation with Blue Helmets that was authorised. 146 00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:23,300 Instead, what the U.N. is, what the Security Council is increasingly inclined to use to do low footprint missions. 147 00:21:23,300 --> 00:21:34,210 Now these low footprint peace operations, are they, of course, you know, they impose the cost less. 148 00:21:34,210 --> 00:21:38,710 They are easy to mobilise. They're quick to deploy. 149 00:21:38,710 --> 00:21:45,280 But they of course increase. They impose a pretty heavy burden. 150 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:53,990 In fact, the burden of expectations is probably the biggest on the UN secretariat. 151 00:21:53,990 --> 00:22:02,850 And the secretariat on the instructions of the secretary general can deploy. 152 00:22:02,850 --> 00:22:14,420 A range of, in fact, goes to the secretary general with a range of options to address a conflict. 153 00:22:14,420 --> 00:22:26,720 For instance, bustle on voice, there are cases where the Security Council, for one reason or another, has not put a conflict on its agenda. 154 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,060 Perhaps there is no consensus in the Security Council. 155 00:22:29,060 --> 00:22:36,920 Perhaps a conflict is not considered to be at a stage where it merits the Security Council's active interest. 156 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:45,170 And at the same time, it is a it is perhaps a conflict of concern and therefore the secretary general has the 157 00:22:45,170 --> 00:22:55,720 capacity to deploy a personal online without needing to go to go to the Security Council. 158 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,160 Similarly, there are special advisers. 159 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:12,660 For instance, the secretary general has a special adviser on Africa who broadly monitors conflicts across Africa and. 160 00:23:12,660 --> 00:23:25,750 Effectively exercises the secretary general's good offices in building trust between member states across the African continent. 161 00:23:25,750 --> 00:23:37,510 Then there are special envoys. And there is the there's a high representative as well, for instance, the. 162 00:23:37,510 --> 00:23:42,910 There is a high representative for landlocked, 163 00:23:42,910 --> 00:23:56,470 least developing and island states who report to the secretary general because this in the era of climate change. 164 00:23:56,470 --> 00:24:06,640 Island states, landlocked countries are seen to have the All-Seeing or all seem to have their all making common cause. 165 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:16,060 They even work together in the General Assembly often and therefore there is in fact even something called the Air Force, 166 00:24:16,060 --> 00:24:24,160 says the forum of small states. Countries with populations less than 10 million, 167 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:31,540 they all tend to in fact work together on many issues of the General Assembly and 168 00:24:31,540 --> 00:24:37,420 therefore a representative who engages with them and gives the secretary general informed. 169 00:24:37,420 --> 00:24:46,360 This high representative and there are special envoys the special envoys have increasingly become are becoming increasingly common. 170 00:24:46,360 --> 00:24:54,790 There is a special envoy, for instance, for Yemen, and there's a special envoy on Syria. 171 00:24:54,790 --> 00:25:01,850 A special envoy is someone who typically does not have to. 172 00:25:01,850 --> 00:25:12,120 He can only she can. She focuses exclusively on the peace and security issues related to that particular theatre and 173 00:25:12,120 --> 00:25:22,200 does not have to say oversee the operations of the UN agencies in the country such as UNICEF, 174 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:28,590 W.H.O., UNDP, etc. 175 00:25:28,590 --> 00:25:33,920 There are special representatives, these are. 176 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:46,610 Officials at the under secretary general level were appointed by the secretary general to the public in a very broad, 177 00:25:46,610 --> 00:25:59,110 all encompassing view of a conflict. And now this look like bureaucratic titles, but each title actually carries with it a certain weight, 178 00:25:59,110 --> 00:26:08,080 as well as a certain scope of responsibility and especially representatives also not only have to look at the peace and security dimension, 179 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:18,400 but also to look at the developmental dimension and then look at the intersection of peace and development in a certain country. 180 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:28,420 So, for instance, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, we have special representatives now. 181 00:26:28,420 --> 00:26:34,270 There are special representatives in some countries that also have special political missions Afghanistan and Iraq. 182 00:26:34,270 --> 00:26:43,010 Being along being classic examples, especially political mission, is quite similar to an embassy. 183 00:26:43,010 --> 00:26:53,300 Except that, of course, it does not represent any particular any one member States' interests or positions. 184 00:26:53,300 --> 00:27:00,230 A special political mission has, you could say, a broadly two rules one. 185 00:27:00,230 --> 00:27:04,190 In fact, it acts as an interface. I'll say it's two roles are two. 186 00:27:04,190 --> 00:27:14,120 Functions are to translate the Security Council's mandate and to put it into action. 187 00:27:14,120 --> 00:27:18,830 For instance, the Security Council has a mandate of protection of civilians. Then, 188 00:27:18,830 --> 00:27:28,880 when the special political mission in the Country X will work with all the security actors and 189 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:34,400 perhaps even non-state actors to ensure that civilians are protected in the course of the conflict. 190 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:45,230 At the same time, the special political missions has a function of representing the people of the country through the Security Council. 191 00:27:45,230 --> 00:27:53,030 So whenever there's a Security Council mandate for an SPM, as we say, there is. 192 00:27:53,030 --> 00:27:57,080 The Security Council calls for a brief every three months, 193 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:06,350 every six months by the special representative heading the SPM on what is a status, what exactly is going on in the country. 194 00:28:06,350 --> 00:28:09,440 Do we see the conflict, especially in the fog of war? 195 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:19,790 It's hard to ascertain whether the conflict intensity has increased or and who is responsible for, say, much of the violence. 196 00:28:19,790 --> 00:28:32,780 So these kind of very nuanced reading readings are actually done through these three monthly or six monthly briefs by the special representatives. 197 00:28:32,780 --> 00:28:38,780 Heading ISPs in parallel are what we see. 198 00:28:38,780 --> 00:28:47,480 Our special rapporteurs were typically appointed by the UN Human Rights Council, which, as you know, is not in the U.N. charter. 199 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:55,760 It was not originally the U.N. charter, but ever since it was set up in the 90s, it has been a useful forum. 200 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,020 It does not have. 201 00:28:57,020 --> 00:29:08,030 The UN Human Rights Council does not include the entire membership of the U.N. and at the same time, it's become a very important organ of the UN in, 202 00:29:08,030 --> 00:29:14,780 especially in formulation of international human rights law and special rapporteurs 203 00:29:14,780 --> 00:29:21,150 are independent of the work independently and to keep the Secretary-General informed. 204 00:29:21,150 --> 00:29:30,230 There's a special rapporteur, for example, on freedom of speech. There's a special rapporteur on freedom for practise of religion. 205 00:29:30,230 --> 00:29:35,810 So there is these kind of officials. 206 00:29:35,810 --> 00:29:38,270 They look at different dimensions of a conflict. 207 00:29:38,270 --> 00:29:50,180 And this is this is one value that the UN brings to the table in the sense that there, even if individual member states have, let's say, you know, 208 00:29:50,180 --> 00:30:03,830 they have ministers and tied ministries and, you know, looking at it, excuse me, addressing various dimensions of the conflict and trying to say, 209 00:30:03,830 --> 00:30:14,450 for example, there are countries such as Norway that how active mediation teams are and yet not not many are able 210 00:30:14,450 --> 00:30:23,060 to summon the kind of bandwidth the UN has in addressing the and all the dimensions to a conflict, 211 00:30:23,060 --> 00:30:32,720 for instance. So there are take you take any conflict that is raging in the world and any civil war that we see today. 212 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:39,500 And you will see that apart from those who are working on the peace and security dimensions there, 213 00:30:39,500 --> 00:30:46,550 there is a special envoy, special rapporteur who is working on children in armed conflict. 214 00:30:46,550 --> 00:30:51,800 There is a special envoy who is looking at the role of sexual violence in conflict, 215 00:30:51,800 --> 00:31:02,210 and therefore this ensures that no Weiss's are lost and that every a the voice of the people in 216 00:31:02,210 --> 00:31:10,880 the conflict consistently and makes it is consistently heard by the international community. 217 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:21,520 No. That's it. The challenges to peace are indeed manifold, and they are multiplying as we speak terrorism, 218 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:27,910 we already I'd mentioned and also but violent extremism and. 219 00:31:27,910 --> 00:31:32,490 Many people, in fact, talk. 220 00:31:32,490 --> 00:31:45,390 Of these two terms, perhaps together, in fact, even the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy speaks of violent extremism conducive to terrorism. 221 00:31:45,390 --> 00:31:52,470 But I separate this for a reason because what we're seeing today is is the rise of intolerance, 222 00:31:52,470 --> 00:32:03,690 which perhaps falls short of actively procuring explosives and wanting to attack people who disagree with you. 223 00:32:03,690 --> 00:32:11,070 But the question is no less violent and no less dangerous to our societies. 224 00:32:11,070 --> 00:32:27,030 Whether it is right wing extremism, whether it is the now we're even talking about the talk of intolerance on the grounds of fear for environmental, 225 00:32:27,030 --> 00:32:33,220 on the basis of environmental arguments. There is, and we have become. 226 00:32:33,220 --> 00:32:38,030 A world community where intolerance has foundered. 227 00:32:38,030 --> 00:32:49,370 Quite easy to proliferate, and perhaps it is the internet to blame, perhaps it is just the side geist of our times. 228 00:32:49,370 --> 00:33:04,490 But perhaps it's it. It is. It's just it is a reality that we are less willing to even look into the arguments of those that we disagree with. 229 00:33:04,490 --> 00:33:11,900 But violent extremism in particular has created the schisms in society. 230 00:33:11,900 --> 00:33:17,570 And that's where the UN has been working on social cohesion programming. 231 00:33:17,570 --> 00:33:23,240 This means that especially where you have majoritarianism on the rise, for instance, 232 00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:36,230 you cannot address it as an issue of anti-terrorism if you have the majority believing that a minority is is dominating and 233 00:33:36,230 --> 00:33:45,020 therefore that or that if there are a majority impulses in the society or if there is an apartheid like environment be developing, 234 00:33:45,020 --> 00:33:50,270 then in such cases what you need is social cohesion programming. 235 00:33:50,270 --> 00:33:54,530 It's again, something that sounds very uneasy when we put it. 236 00:33:54,530 --> 00:34:03,290 But at the grassroots level, a lot of work has been done by the UN in fostering trust between communities, 237 00:34:03,290 --> 00:34:12,230 in creating champions individuals who can act as agents of harmony within their community, 238 00:34:12,230 --> 00:34:19,640 who can assure the members of their community that, you know, let's give the benefit of doubt. 239 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:28,880 Let's take a step back. Let's act with empathy towards these other communities. 240 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:36,820 So. Similarly, we have this issue. 241 00:34:36,820 --> 00:34:48,170 Of. Information warfare, we have that it goes without saying fake news. 242 00:34:48,170 --> 00:34:57,530 Now this is where the UN has in fact, the U.N. is trying to find solutions to this issue, to this challenge. 243 00:34:57,530 --> 00:35:02,900 I don't think we yet did. But we are. 244 00:35:02,900 --> 00:35:14,450 In fact, the Secretary-General tweeted just last week about any time you see a piece of news, ask Who is it by? 245 00:35:14,450 --> 00:35:22,590 Where is it from? What could be the intent? So in other words, the critical reason? 246 00:35:22,590 --> 00:35:32,280 With Everett, in the case of every bit of news or information that that we come across, 247 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:37,110 and this is something that we are trying to address through education through, 248 00:35:37,110 --> 00:35:47,720 for instance, through unicycle and and and also through the US own strategic communications apparatus. 249 00:35:47,720 --> 00:36:00,020 Climate security, it's not something that is on which there is a consensus, whether climate change is a peace and security issue, 250 00:36:00,020 --> 00:36:05,420 but many people would say yes, the desertification of the Lake Chad basin. 251 00:36:05,420 --> 00:36:14,090 In fact, there's a U.N. fund for four specifically on this and to which many member states have contributed. 252 00:36:14,090 --> 00:36:26,060 And the desertification of Lake Chad has indeed given rise to enormous instability in West Africa and two waves of migration to go to Europe. 253 00:36:26,060 --> 00:36:38,540 And yet there is a fear amongst some member states that climate change is would it be used, perhaps or misused, 254 00:36:38,540 --> 00:36:49,310 say such in a manner similar to say right, right to protect in order to justify interventions in? 255 00:36:49,310 --> 00:36:57,920 In other member states, so clearly, there is quite a huge gap. 256 00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:07,790 There is a lot of mistrust on. On this issue, and even as we are face to face with the threat of climate change, 257 00:37:07,790 --> 00:37:16,790 there is a very recently the Security Council did not find consensus and including climate change on the agenda of the Security Council. 258 00:37:16,790 --> 00:37:23,810 So the UN civil service, for its on its part, is, however, 259 00:37:23,810 --> 00:37:32,870 studying this dimension actively and I personally have seen how climate change has contributed to a rise in, 260 00:37:32,870 --> 00:37:43,460 for instance, into tribal conflict in the south of Iraq and in many parts of the Middle East in particular. 261 00:37:43,460 --> 00:37:52,930 Cybersecurity is an issue that is that matters a lot for member states in the U.S. 262 00:37:52,930 --> 00:38:02,660 Like there's there's often a please don't quote me on this, but we like to believe that, you know, it's part of being an, you know, an open society. 263 00:38:02,660 --> 00:38:08,930 The price you pay for it is that it's very hard to lock information up. 264 00:38:08,930 --> 00:38:20,420 And yet cyber security and the toll that it can take on societies is something the U.N. is looking into. 265 00:38:20,420 --> 00:38:26,420 The secretary general has a new envoy on data. 266 00:38:26,420 --> 00:38:39,740 There's a special envoy for and the and the data strategy and who's role amongst whose mandate is also to look into the dimensions of cybersecurity. 267 00:38:39,740 --> 00:38:51,520 Now. One of the key issues is that we see today is rising inequality inequalities, perhaps at the bottom of most of the conflict in the world. 268 00:38:51,520 --> 00:39:04,690 It has been so for centuries. But for the U.N., this means that you cannot simply fix the conflict by merely bringing, you know, 269 00:39:04,690 --> 00:39:12,640 parties to the leaders of their political parties together and sitting them on the table and getting an agreement signed. 270 00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:20,770 In fact, you need to look at, you know, much deeper. And that's where we are now actively in two political economy monitoring. 271 00:39:20,770 --> 00:39:31,270 For instance, we have a group that looks at oil, the prices of the the price of oil and what that says. 272 00:39:31,270 --> 00:39:37,330 We are actively monitoring the price of oil and to see what impact it would 273 00:39:37,330 --> 00:39:45,760 make on countries that are both major producers as well as major consumers. 274 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:53,830 The as part of the Secretary-General's reforms in 2019, a role of chief economic adviser was created. 275 00:39:53,830 --> 00:40:01,300 The undersecretary general for economic and social affairs is going to be called his chief economic adviser to the secretary general. 276 00:40:01,300 --> 00:40:06,000 And this means that. Besides the World Bank and the IMF, 277 00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:21,940 the secretary general has direct access to it do to forecasting in a way of where the global political economic trends are going and. 278 00:40:21,940 --> 00:40:32,170 Quite important is the creation of the new resident coordinator system there for the longest time without a Security Council mandate, 279 00:40:32,170 --> 00:40:38,680 it's it was impossible for the UN and justifiably so for reasons of sovereignty. 280 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:45,130 But you will study what is happening in the country. Yes, there is some kind of passive monitoring, but not more than that. 281 00:40:45,130 --> 00:40:58,300 And it's very hard especially to communicate to a government, to you to say that, you know, perhaps the government may want to reconsider a certain, 282 00:40:58,300 --> 00:41:12,250 you know, move or a certain movie, a certain piece of legislation and so on now without actually intervening or in any country's democratic processes. 283 00:41:12,250 --> 00:41:19,540 The secretary general and we shared the creation of the resident coordinator system, the resident coordinator, this role that existed for a while, 284 00:41:19,540 --> 00:41:32,050 but now it has come in a in a in a very empowered as an empowered role and a resident coordinator in about 40 or 285 00:41:32,050 --> 00:41:38,380 countries that they understand coordinator who sits at the top of the pyramid of all the UN institutions in the country, 286 00:41:38,380 --> 00:41:43,420 all the UN agencies and this resident coordinator reported directly to the secretary general. 287 00:41:43,420 --> 00:41:51,640 So effectively, it's the closest thing that the U.N. would have would come to have to having an ambassador in each country. 288 00:41:51,640 --> 00:42:00,940 Now, of course, it's not there in every country in the world, but in about 40 odd countries where there is there is increasing facility, 289 00:42:00,940 --> 00:42:05,230 or perhaps there is some kind of there are cycles of conflict. 290 00:42:05,230 --> 00:42:15,460 There is this AC system exists and along with the ask, each of the resident coordinators, has a peace and development adviser. 291 00:42:15,460 --> 00:42:22,870 And this is also there in 44 countries who who looks at the who looks at not 292 00:42:22,870 --> 00:42:28,060 just about a very broadly about how the peace and security in the country is, 293 00:42:28,060 --> 00:42:37,180 but also about how the developmental trends in the country are likely to affect the peace and security situation. 294 00:42:37,180 --> 00:42:40,870 And these business development advisers, in some cases, 295 00:42:40,870 --> 00:42:48,040 the roles of peace and development specialists who advise the resident coordinators thus act as, 296 00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:52,120 quite frankly, has eyes and views, you know, and in some cases, 297 00:42:52,120 --> 00:43:04,060 hands for the Secretary-General to to address conflicts before they even erupt and irregular responses by 298 00:43:04,060 --> 00:43:10,090 states to non-conventional threats over something that that that's a major concern for for the U.N. today. 299 00:43:10,090 --> 00:43:18,610 This means the setting up of, for instance, of militias which perhaps seem to work in the Short-Term, 300 00:43:18,610 --> 00:43:21,790 but in the medium term that become a problem in themselves. 301 00:43:21,790 --> 00:43:34,360 So this is an area where the UN's DDR and necessary as you call them, disarmament, demobilisation reintegration and security sector reform. 302 00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:44,950 These two mechanisms, which were in their heyday in the 90s, were actively used to demobilise, for instance, rebel groups in West Africa and so on. 303 00:43:44,950 --> 00:43:50,050 Today we're having to act, you know, completely. 304 00:43:50,050 --> 00:43:58,720 Look at, you know, overhaul them, regrouped them so that we addressed this, the issue of these militias, 305 00:43:58,720 --> 00:44:11,680 so that we also are able to make these functions work in an environment where you have active terrorist groups. 306 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:25,780 So we have a new acronym that are dealing with which, which is armed by armed groups that are classified as terrorist actors. 307 00:44:25,780 --> 00:44:32,980 So it's it's a it's a complicated acronym, but it's essentially in how do we deal, for instance, with al-Shabab? 308 00:44:32,980 --> 00:44:40,090 And how do we make sure that groups that are sanctioned that are part of U.N. sanctions lists? 309 00:44:40,090 --> 00:44:48,970 And yet which are perhaps active insurgent, active insurgent insurgent groups in a country? 310 00:44:48,970 --> 00:44:59,140 How do we deal with them? How do we demobilise them? These are issues that the U.N. is increasingly concerned about and sees to it. 311 00:44:59,140 --> 00:45:07,010 And. Of course, the most important I would say. 312 00:45:07,010 --> 00:45:15,260 You could say walk in of you and thinking about technology has no dawn and that 313 00:45:15,260 --> 00:45:20,570 it's a need that the emphasis on innovation in the UN now is is quite high. 314 00:45:20,570 --> 00:45:32,720 And this is not just so much about the because it the UN has come from the Dr. Strangelove era, perhaps the Steve Jobs era, 315 00:45:32,720 --> 00:45:39,950 but it's actually the key to the cognition of the fact that peacemaking today 316 00:45:39,950 --> 00:45:48,650 requires the proactive use of technology and in ways that we do not imagine before. 317 00:45:48,650 --> 00:45:57,740 And that's where whether it's artificial intelligence and use of machine learning to give you one example that 318 00:45:57,740 --> 00:46:07,640 we use about one year ago when we were looking at Mosul and we wanted the after the liberation of Mosul, 319 00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:14,660 we wanted the Security Council to vote on resolutions for the reconstruction of the city. 320 00:46:14,660 --> 00:46:22,730 And one of our teams, some of our colleagues, went to Mosul and the the video took place. 321 00:46:22,730 --> 00:46:33,020 And basically, we created a virtual reality programme as an augmented reality programme for the members of the 322 00:46:33,020 --> 00:46:39,110 Security Council so that they could see what it feels like for an average citizen in the city. 323 00:46:39,110 --> 00:46:46,580 And this has these kind of innovations have made a significant difference. 324 00:46:46,580 --> 00:46:59,540 We similarly, when it comes to elections in which the UN plays a key role in many countries, the UN is called upon sometimes to monitor elections, 325 00:46:59,540 --> 00:47:12,680 but quite often, but almost always to support a technical assistance to support a member state electoral commission in these kind of cases. 326 00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:20,720 So we are increasingly using technology to make sure that the processes are as fair and free as possible, 327 00:47:20,720 --> 00:47:30,200 whether it is through setting up of a network called 1:2 in Kenya after the legitimate elections in 2010, 328 00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:36,110 which allowed for people to report on electoral malpractices almost in real time. 329 00:47:36,110 --> 00:47:49,640 Now, similarly, in behavioural insights, when it comes to preventing violent extremism, the the UN and the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism is using. 330 00:47:49,640 --> 00:48:03,110 It has in fact set up a centre in Doha to to study how behaviour bureau incites what they may see. 331 00:48:03,110 --> 00:48:12,860 But it comes violent extremism. Our predictive analytics and foresight, all of this and the as well as futures insight. 332 00:48:12,860 --> 00:48:23,120 This is all part of our efforts to improve the early warning for you and senior management. 333 00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:39,560 We have various mechanisms for risk management reviews through which all of UN insights on a certain region of the world are. 334 00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:45,950 They are combined and filtered and analysed. 335 00:48:45,950 --> 00:48:53,750 And while it's it's quite a mammoth process, the insights are quite valuable. 336 00:48:53,750 --> 00:49:07,340 And these this, I believe, has helped us in, you know, in taking a more scientific approach to peacemaking so that when especially blown noise, 337 00:49:07,340 --> 00:49:15,380 especially president of the of the general, we go now and sit with a activist in a conflict. 338 00:49:15,380 --> 00:49:22,160 They're not, you know, working merely on the basis of what has been told to them in the previous meeting on what's reported in the media. 339 00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:30,590 But they're actually going armed with a wealth of information and insight. 340 00:49:30,590 --> 00:49:34,790 I would like to leave the rest for question and answer, 341 00:49:34,790 --> 00:49:47,630 but I hope this has given you a little bit of insight into how the UN is keeping pace with the changing characteristics. 342 00:49:47,630 --> 00:49:53,420 As warfare has changed, so too has the need. 343 00:49:53,420 --> 00:50:04,340 So, so too has peacemaking, and the UN has increasingly come to see this and is trying to keep pace with these changes in peacemaking. 344 00:50:04,340 --> 00:50:16,180 Thank you. Roger Roger Superbowl, it was nice that you've ended by bringing together both matters to do with peacemaking, 345 00:50:16,180 --> 00:50:22,060 but with also the character of conflict because there was no joke made by a peace 346 00:50:22,060 --> 00:50:25,660 mediator that those studying peace are really actually having to study war. 347 00:50:25,660 --> 00:50:30,656 And those so-called war studies, people are always interested in peace, something that's broadly correct.