1 00:00:01,410 --> 00:00:11,680 We reached our ideas of being disappointed with the full Senate, which is amazing to see the mark of Maria. 2 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:17,340 Also, the subject hopes and I know have a sort of full exhibition of various biography exhibits. 3 00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:25,380 She's very nicely captured, right? But she manages to blend both a sort of private sector wrong with being a researcher, 4 00:00:25,380 --> 00:00:33,900 so we could probably all try this at some stage resurfacing research right here CCW. 5 00:00:33,900 --> 00:00:38,420 She has fought long and hard to become a busy research fellow, and here she is. 6 00:00:38,420 --> 00:00:43,890 I think is the subject of reflexive job is what is what we will carry with. 7 00:00:43,890 --> 00:00:49,050 It is founded around quite a bit. It's not very well understood. It's possibly exaggerated. 8 00:00:49,050 --> 00:00:57,960 It's possibly just good looking in the wrong place. And who better to help us take us through that concept of why it matters to you? 9 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:06,000 Thank you. So thank you all for being here. It's really nice to be able to give a talk like this in person. 10 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:16,140 It's been quite a while, and it's really nice to to do that here that I've really enjoyed my time so far since October, and it's been fantastic. 11 00:01:16,140 --> 00:01:25,590 And so this seminar will be about reflexive control, and it will be about what the theory is about because, as Rob mentioned, 12 00:01:25,590 --> 00:01:33,810 that's not actually as straightforward as one might hope or think an interwoven in me explaining what this theory is about. 13 00:01:33,810 --> 00:01:43,650 I have done a bit of cybernetic theory because cybernetic theory is at the root of what reflexive control theory is about, 14 00:01:43,650 --> 00:01:48,630 because the theory is really, really rather theorised in the West. 15 00:01:48,630 --> 00:01:54,510 We can't really call it a theory yet. It's more like a concept that we want to theorise. 16 00:01:54,510 --> 00:02:02,940 I also really want to make sure that we take a little bit of time to tell you about what we don't know about this yet. 17 00:02:02,940 --> 00:02:07,290 Just to make sure that you have a realistic idea of what it is and what it is 18 00:02:07,290 --> 00:02:13,740 and what we can use it for and what really needs a bit of development time. 19 00:02:13,740 --> 00:02:17,850 So what is reflexive, you know, and what is it about? 20 00:02:17,850 --> 00:02:27,210 The theory was first written about the early sixties in Soviet Russia by mathematical psycho psychologist Vladimir Lefevre, 21 00:02:27,210 --> 00:02:33,270 and it all originates and said from cybernetic theory. 22 00:02:33,270 --> 00:02:43,020 This cybernetic theory has a lot of overlap with what we more commonly known as complex systems theory, which might ring a little bit more of a bell. 23 00:02:43,020 --> 00:02:49,650 So as it says here, reflexive control is a means of conveying to partner or an opponent, 24 00:02:49,650 --> 00:02:57,960 specifically especially prepared information to incline him to voluntarily make the predetermined decision. 25 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:04,890 And the idea is the theory that you can make someone make a decision which they think is in their best interest. 26 00:03:04,890 --> 00:03:12,630 Whilst actually the situation or information was specifically prepared in such a way that they make the 27 00:03:12,630 --> 00:03:20,310 decision that was predetermined by you and is actually probably in your best interest and not theirs. 28 00:03:20,310 --> 00:03:28,200 And if reflexive control would be done well, it would mean that actually the other party was controlled wouldn't necessarily mean that they 29 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:36,180 have fallen into into a trap or that they made a decision that was predetermined by someone else. 30 00:03:36,180 --> 00:03:42,750 So that's very cool. I would say it reflects control is about changing someone's perceptions about 31 00:03:42,750 --> 00:03:51,720 their utility says make them misperceive what they think their best choices are. 32 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,530 And so I think it's good to know that those in the west and in the east, 33 00:03:55,530 --> 00:04:01,020 where this theory has developed a little bit in parallel the nature of of what 34 00:04:01,020 --> 00:04:05,910 reflexive control is and ideas about how it works have been evolving over the years. 35 00:04:05,910 --> 00:04:12,840 And actually few people have been researching this agree on what it is exactly and what it is not. 36 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:20,700 There's various definitions, and I actually really like the work of a very recent work by a Finnish analyst 37 00:04:20,700 --> 00:04:26,190 from the Finnish Defence Academy Defence University Sorry Antiperspirant, 38 00:04:26,190 --> 00:04:35,250 who uses quite a wide definition, which I'll explain a little bit. And the reason I liked this wider definition is because I think it gives us a bit 39 00:04:35,250 --> 00:04:41,670 more opportunity to see how we can use this theory and how we can learn from it, 40 00:04:41,670 --> 00:04:45,990 because I think that there's really a lot that we can learn from this theory. 41 00:04:45,990 --> 00:04:55,260 So if we look at the literature both written in Russian and in English, there are two types of reflexive control, 42 00:04:55,260 --> 00:05:00,930 and they're divided into constructive, reflexive control and destructive. 43 00:05:00,930 --> 00:05:10,800 The constructive control can be used in slow paced situations, but there's time to conduct in-depth analysis of the situation, 44 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:14,970 how the situation is perceived, what the goals are of the other. 45 00:05:14,970 --> 00:05:22,980 And in this form of reflexive control, the other will be influenced in such a way that they would voluntarily make a decision. 46 00:05:22,980 --> 00:05:28,980 There's no disruption or anything. Quite it looks like quite an organic process. 47 00:05:28,980 --> 00:05:32,280 And indeed, here the decision will be made voluntarily, 48 00:05:32,280 --> 00:05:40,110 and the decision would serve your interest without necessarily the other people realising that it serves your interest. 49 00:05:40,110 --> 00:05:50,190 So if we very, very carefully, because I really want to be very careful about this, very carefully link this to Western concepts. 50 00:05:50,190 --> 00:06:01,440 I would say that this is almost something like a systems theory approach to perception management on steroids with a lot of maths. 51 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:10,080 And I think this sort of reflects control will be more common in longer term situations like diplomacy, economic statecraft, 52 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:18,150 situations that linger on for quite some time and doesn't require a specific timestamp of which something needs to happen right now. 53 00:06:18,150 --> 00:06:25,770 So that's different from destructive, reflexive control, which actually can be used in fast paced situations, 54 00:06:25,770 --> 00:06:30,900 and this is very much focussed on disrupting decision making processes. 55 00:06:30,900 --> 00:06:39,960 And again, to link this carefully to a Western concept, I think this is really quite similar to deception. 56 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:48,810 It will still have the reflexive crisis involved. But if you think about what it practically means, I think we can compare this to deception. 57 00:06:48,810 --> 00:06:51,720 And I think this is this is a lot less subtle. 58 00:06:51,720 --> 00:07:00,600 People would normally probably quite quickly realise that they've been, that they've been trapped into a decision that they didn't want to make. 59 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:11,010 So I think this you would more commonly see in situations like either battlefield kinetic situation that wasn't necessarily planned or expected or, 60 00:07:11,010 --> 00:07:15,900 for example, something like an unexpected negotiation. 61 00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:25,890 So according again to literature, there are four broad steps that would have to be taken for a reflexive control operation. 62 00:07:25,890 --> 00:07:30,870 And the first one would be to build an understanding of the perception of the situation. 63 00:07:30,870 --> 00:07:37,710 How does this act to think that the situation looks night, which, as we'll talk about later, 64 00:07:37,710 --> 00:07:42,540 might be very much different from the question of what is the actual situation? 65 00:07:42,540 --> 00:07:44,970 Well, we'll get back to that in a little bit. 66 00:07:44,970 --> 00:07:53,610 Step number two would be to determine what the opponent's goals are and what these goals should be to meet those of the controlling party. 67 00:07:53,610 --> 00:07:58,320 So how can we change the goals of the control party to something that we like? 68 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:03,810 And if you would use more gave theoretical terms, you would say, you know, 69 00:08:03,810 --> 00:08:10,530 what are these persons utility sets and what do we need these utility sets to be? 70 00:08:10,530 --> 00:08:13,230 So step number three would be, as they call it, 71 00:08:13,230 --> 00:08:22,650 the introduction of a solution algorithm that requires a little bit of explanation because that I can imagine sounds really abstract. 72 00:08:22,650 --> 00:08:27,360 So would it would be because of the cybernetics background of the theory? 73 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:32,010 It would be sort of the algorithmic modelling of behaviour and decision making. 74 00:08:32,010 --> 00:08:40,170 And I think the best way to visualise this is to think of decision making trees, as you would sometimes see in in game theory. 75 00:08:40,170 --> 00:08:44,520 And this would also this prices would also involve thinking about where the weak spots 76 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:51,690 are in this decision making process and and how these weak spots could be exploited. 77 00:08:51,690 --> 00:09:00,270 And importantly for reflexive control, this step would also include thinking about the level of reflection that the other party could use. 78 00:09:00,270 --> 00:09:05,790 So in essence, what you think about, could the other party be using reflexive control on you? 79 00:09:05,790 --> 00:09:07,710 And should you take that into account? 80 00:09:07,710 --> 00:09:16,230 When you think about decision making force, there is a feedback loop and those who know a little bit about cybernetics. 81 00:09:16,230 --> 00:09:22,620 We get really excited maybe about this because that is one of the core ideas of cybernetic theory 82 00:09:22,620 --> 00:09:27,900 because you need to understand what decision has been made and why this decision has been made. 83 00:09:27,900 --> 00:09:34,950 And so as you probably think about, well, this is pretty close to how machine learning works is if you're wrong, 84 00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:38,430 you adjust your algorithm and you do it again. 85 00:09:38,430 --> 00:09:42,780 And so it becomes a continuous learning process. 86 00:09:42,780 --> 00:09:50,490 And because I think that this process shows very well the origins of this theory in cybernetic theory, 87 00:09:50,490 --> 00:09:59,820 I thought of just briefly mention the cybernetics and the while there are many definitions about what cybernetic theory is, and we have a couple of. 88 00:09:59,820 --> 00:10:07,890 People here and on the call who are far better qualified to talk to you about it, which I suggest you do because it's a fascinating topic, 89 00:10:07,890 --> 00:10:13,770 but for this specific lecture, I'd like to use the the definition of Gilmore Girls. 90 00:10:13,770 --> 00:10:24,180 This is one of the earlier definitions, and it's a definition of sujet cybernetics, which is not necessarily the same as Western cybernetics, 91 00:10:24,180 --> 00:10:31,770 because there was little communication until that until the 70s, especially after the Second World War. 92 00:10:31,770 --> 00:10:37,950 So, according to Komarov, cybernetics is the study of systems of any nature. 93 00:10:37,950 --> 00:10:43,830 So that could be humans, machines, animals, any system which are capable of receiving, 94 00:10:43,830 --> 00:10:51,810 storing and processing information so as to use it for control and again, to emphasise. 95 00:10:51,810 --> 00:10:56,730 It's good to mention that Soviet cybernetics developed in parallel to how it was developed 96 00:10:56,730 --> 00:11:03,390 in the West because there was little communication between the two areas in the time. 97 00:11:03,390 --> 00:11:10,860 And so those people who know a lot about Western cybernetics might disagree a little bit with this definition, and that's great. 98 00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:15,390 That's that's a great ground for a lot of discussion. 99 00:11:15,390 --> 00:11:18,000 If you are interested in Soviet cybernetics, 100 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:27,870 the author I just mentioned and wrote a really great chapter on it is the only work I know that is in English about Soviet cybernetics. 101 00:11:27,870 --> 00:11:31,680 I can highly recommend it anyway. 102 00:11:31,680 --> 00:11:43,380 I think a very important aspect of both cybernetics and thus reflects control is that it takes a systemic and holistic approach, 103 00:11:43,380 --> 00:11:50,250 and it emphasises interconnectedness and behaviours of various systems. 104 00:11:50,250 --> 00:12:01,530 And what I mean by that is that we're not looking at different systems or situations necessarily as separate on its own sending paths. 105 00:12:01,530 --> 00:12:06,210 It's more like it's a whole consisting of different systems within systems. 106 00:12:06,210 --> 00:12:12,660 And that sounds quite vague, but for understanding of the theory, that's quite useful to keep in mind. 107 00:12:12,660 --> 00:12:19,200 And again, I want to emphasise about the parallel development of cybernetics and so get science in general because 108 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:26,340 I don't want anyone to get the idea that reflects control is anything completely new or that is, 109 00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:30,930 if anything, it's really very old. And I'm I'm sure it happens in all parts of the world. 110 00:12:30,930 --> 00:12:40,050 It's just probably not called that. And also, I think that parts of it will definitely have been developed in in Western science, 111 00:12:40,050 --> 00:12:45,930 but it will be really nice to find out where they are in order so we can build this theory 112 00:12:45,930 --> 00:12:50,850 in a way that it sort of fits the requirements of what we hear in the West at the moment, 113 00:12:50,850 --> 00:12:55,320 see as a as a requirement for an academic theory. 114 00:12:55,320 --> 00:13:01,350 And actually, I would like you to think about this now for when we get to the question and answers 115 00:13:01,350 --> 00:13:07,290 and that if you have any theories that you think of whilst listening to this, 116 00:13:07,290 --> 00:13:14,580 which you think might actually fit in quite well with this or might talk to a specific part of the theory, 117 00:13:14,580 --> 00:13:18,240 let's talk about it, because that would be that would be great. 118 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:25,290 And this is ongoing research, and it'd be really nice to be able to build this theory as well as we can. 119 00:13:25,290 --> 00:13:32,100 What we don't want to do is to reinvent the wheel and pretend like we are doing something that is completely new. 120 00:13:32,100 --> 00:13:39,060 So if we think about the first three steps that are a couple of states ago, 121 00:13:39,060 --> 00:13:45,180 we say there's quite a bit of analysis that is done within these three steps in the famous 122 00:13:45,180 --> 00:13:52,440 work this these three steps are all done in what he calls the the model of the self. 123 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:59,010 And actually, I think you always need to make one model of self and one model also of the other. 124 00:13:59,010 --> 00:14:02,400 And you really need both because only if you have both, 125 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:11,910 you are able to really put the two together and see what that interaction might look like and how one might perceive the other. 126 00:14:11,910 --> 00:14:21,960 And also, you really need it in order to say something about, again, the probability that the other is using some sort of reflexive thinking on you. 127 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:29,550 So I think the model of the self is a really interesting concept, not because it's again, not because it's completely new or anything is in. 128 00:14:29,550 --> 00:14:33,450 There has never been thought about before, but I think what this does, 129 00:14:33,450 --> 00:14:40,380 it enables you to consciously think about your own perceptions, your own behaviour, 130 00:14:40,380 --> 00:14:45,990 your own vulnerabilities and also how you are being perceived by the other, which as well again, 131 00:14:45,990 --> 00:14:53,190 talk that might not necessarily be what the actual real, perfect information situation is. 132 00:14:53,190 --> 00:14:58,530 So yeah, and that might that sort of thing might sound like a like a basic thing, but it's it's really not. 133 00:14:58,530 --> 00:15:06,730 It's really quite. Difficult because actually, if you look at this and you think again carefully about what Western theories 134 00:15:06,730 --> 00:15:12,550 you could link this to would be a little bit like rational choice theory, 135 00:15:12,550 --> 00:15:25,900 but with a very important addition, extra bit and need before rational choice theory gets dismissed because it lost quite a bit of popularity. 136 00:15:25,900 --> 00:15:30,910 I think that many are quick to say that people don't make rational choices, 137 00:15:30,910 --> 00:15:35,650 and I don't necessarily think that is correct, especially in light of this theory, 138 00:15:35,650 --> 00:15:43,540 because on the basis I think is potentially not correct on the basis that rational and rational choice 139 00:15:43,540 --> 00:15:52,130 theory does not necessarily mean that people always choose the best possible actual possible option. 140 00:15:52,130 --> 00:15:58,300 It means that people choose the option they think is best for them based on their values. 141 00:15:58,300 --> 00:16:02,800 So if you would add sort of an extra layer of perception on that, 142 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:07,240 you could think about making the statement that people choose the option they 143 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,560 perceive is the best one for them based on the information available to them, 144 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:16,810 their their information bubbles and also based on their value values. 145 00:16:16,810 --> 00:16:27,070 So after having scanned through very many documents, I think and I'm sorry about this very bad font on the PowerPoint, 146 00:16:27,070 --> 00:16:35,620 I think these are the aspects of what should be in the model of the self, and this is very much still in development. 147 00:16:35,620 --> 00:16:42,040 So we would have in a hypothetical situation, we would have information about the information that the other has, 148 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:48,280 the information bubble that they're in and their value sets and their value sets would include, 149 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:54,100 for example, their ethical systems, what they think is good, what they think is bad, you know, 150 00:16:54,100 --> 00:17:01,330 does the end justify the means or does it not very important one and it would include their goals. 151 00:17:01,330 --> 00:17:09,400 What is it that they want to achieve and which timelines are they using to run in their thought processes? 152 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,080 So it would also include that week schools. 153 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:19,240 Where are they likely to be able to for their perception to be changed about what it is they think they want or they need? 154 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:20,590 And lastly, again, 155 00:17:20,590 --> 00:17:31,150 the the level of reflection that they think that you think that others might have on you or that others might think you are doing for them. 156 00:17:31,150 --> 00:17:36,100 So I just want to emphasise that in reflexive control, 157 00:17:36,100 --> 00:17:44,680 decision making is the idea that decision making depends on the information that is received and how it is perceived, 158 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,610 rather than on what the actual situation is. 159 00:17:48,610 --> 00:17:53,050 And this is a theory, not a concept from cybernetic theory. 160 00:17:53,050 --> 00:18:03,130 And what this means is that where is it or is it acknowledged that there is such a thing as a as a factual truth based on perfect information? 161 00:18:03,130 --> 00:18:08,560 It's up to you to recognise that that is there. There is a there is a truth out there. 162 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:18,340 It also acknowledges that actually, this is not normally the basis on which people base their decisions because often they don't have all the 163 00:18:18,340 --> 00:18:25,780 information and they view this information through that lens that that changes how they make their decisions. 164 00:18:25,780 --> 00:18:31,390 They behave according to the information they have and the information how the information is perceived. 165 00:18:31,390 --> 00:18:43,120 And this doesn't necessarily is not necessarily the same as what the actual factual, perfect information situation looks like. 166 00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:48,190 So this is actually not something that is completely unexplored in Western science. 167 00:18:48,190 --> 00:18:59,500 You don't see very often because it's, I think, will be very difficult to to model or to to measure, but it's not completely unexplored. 168 00:18:59,500 --> 00:19:04,720 So one, for example, five really interesting game theorists called Robert Axelrod. 169 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,390 You might have heard of him because he did. 170 00:19:07,390 --> 00:19:15,300 He was looking at two strategies for cooperation with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and he's he's also been sought to. 171 00:19:15,300 --> 00:19:23,590 And he's also thought to have been looking at reflexive control, which is, I think, an interesting little, little side note. 172 00:19:23,590 --> 00:19:33,280 But in his book Evolution of Cooperation, he describes that the assumption of individuals pursuing self-interest is far less 173 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:39,610 restrictive than it sounds because he says he uses work from evolutionary biology, 174 00:19:39,610 --> 00:19:45,190 and he cites the work of Robert Trivers and he says from amongst others. 175 00:19:45,190 --> 00:19:55,780 He says, actually, it can be proven that there are long term benefits, for example, for from cooperation or altruism in in evolution. 176 00:19:55,780 --> 00:19:59,810 And actually, altruism can definitely be used. 177 00:19:59,810 --> 00:20:06,410 In your own interest, and it sort of takes the altruism out of altruism. 178 00:20:06,410 --> 00:20:11,480 Another field in which this concept is explored is cognitive psychology. 179 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:21,560 For example, the work of Donald Hoffman, he did a lot of research about also doing theoretical simulations about whether in evolution, 180 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,610 perfect information or perceived information would give the best chance of survival. 181 00:20:25,610 --> 00:20:34,040 And actually, in his modelling, he used a perceived situation gives us some quite useful pointers for where we can go with this research. 182 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:43,250 So just wanted to give to common misconceptions about what this theory is about, but it's it's actually a little bit harmful. 183 00:20:43,250 --> 00:20:47,990 And that's because I think if you get these things wrong, 184 00:20:47,990 --> 00:20:55,160 it makes it seem like the theory is much more narrow and unrealistic and unachievable than it really actually is. 185 00:20:55,160 --> 00:21:00,680 And the first one, I think, is very important is reflex versus reflexive, right? 186 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:06,980 And people often think that with reflexive control, something needs to happen like it's a reflex, 187 00:21:06,980 --> 00:21:12,740 which implies that you would always have exactly the same response to particular stimuli. 188 00:21:12,740 --> 00:21:16,850 Like, for example, you if you touch something hot to you, you pull your hand back. 189 00:21:16,850 --> 00:21:20,170 And that is almost a little bit like a scientific law. 190 00:21:20,170 --> 00:21:29,060 And it almost means that if one thing happens, something else happens to you with almost the probability of one because you don't think about it. 191 00:21:29,060 --> 00:21:37,880 It's a it's a nerve reaction and say that then means, again, that there's no that there would be no thinking involved in reflex control. 192 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:45,830 So if you then again, look at the literature on the effects control, what you see is that at the beginning in the 60s and early 70s, 193 00:21:45,830 --> 00:21:50,180 people were indeed writing about reflex control in terms of it, a reflex. 194 00:21:50,180 --> 00:21:55,880 And interestingly, when it sort of when reflexive game theory starts developing more and more, 195 00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:03,800 we see actually that authors become quite more, quite a bit more happy to include thinking processes in it. 196 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:12,410 So I really don't think that reflexive control is solely about making someone reflects on something. 197 00:22:12,410 --> 00:22:18,620 I think it really also involves making someone think about something and still making the wrong decision. 198 00:22:18,620 --> 00:22:25,580 You just give them the wrong information. That brings me to the second misconception that's of control, 199 00:22:25,580 --> 00:22:31,910 and this theory was first written about in Russian and in Russian is called the reflexive. 200 00:22:31,910 --> 00:22:36,440 I apologise for that. My Russian is not good enough to be speaking any of it. 201 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:42,950 But importantly, Oprah blaming it could be translated indeed as control, 202 00:22:42,950 --> 00:22:52,340 but it could also be translated as management or command of command and control or governance. 203 00:22:52,340 --> 00:22:57,920 And if you think about if you would only think about reflex control as needing 204 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:03,560 that element of control and thinking that through in terms of probabilities, 205 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:08,240 if you would model that, that would make the theory really incredibly narrow. 206 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:17,840 But to make scientific laws, if not impossible to make scientific laws about human behaviour in such a way. 207 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:23,990 And if you would then also include a thought process or reflexive process in that, 208 00:23:23,990 --> 00:23:31,190 I think that would be unrealistic to think that you could really speak of control because control would mean, 209 00:23:31,190 --> 00:23:36,200 again, that you would make something happen with the probability of almost one. 210 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:46,280 And then that's yeah, I don't think that that's realistic. Or at least it's probably not realistic enough for it to be used in a wider context. 211 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:57,710 And I think that this is something we should try to do to see if we can learn from this theory and see how we can use it in a in a practical context, 212 00:23:57,710 --> 00:24:05,210 because I'm both an idealist and an academic, and I like things to actually be used if I work on something. 213 00:24:05,210 --> 00:24:09,920 So maybe next time you hear reflex control, maybe having to in the back of your head, 214 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:18,500 something that says reflexive management or reflexive steering or something like that don't focus too much on the control element, 215 00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:27,380 because that would make it really difficult to do anything with this theory so important as a set to spend 216 00:24:27,380 --> 00:24:34,250 a little bit of time talking about what it is we do not know about or control because it's quite a lot. 217 00:24:34,250 --> 00:24:38,750 As I said before, it's more like a concept rather than a theory. 218 00:24:38,750 --> 00:24:41,870 Most important thing is it's completely on the theorised, 219 00:24:41,870 --> 00:24:52,550 and nobody has built a practical model for a flex control and nobody has tested it, especially in the West. 220 00:24:52,550 --> 00:24:59,640 There is hardly any literature on reflex control, and there are three notable exceptions. 221 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:09,270 One paper in the 80s, which I can recommend by Dan Choi article that early work in the 2000s done by Timothy Thomas. 222 00:25:09,270 --> 00:25:13,200 And a recent paper which I already mentioned by Andy Serwer. 223 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,680 And again, these papers are really very good. 224 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:24,300 But what they are is either explorations of the philosophical or psychological 225 00:25:24,300 --> 00:25:30,750 backgrounds of the theory or they are amazing and elaborate literature reviews, 226 00:25:30,750 --> 00:25:37,260 which is incredibly useful, but it doesn't really help us in terms of what we can do with it practically. 227 00:25:37,260 --> 00:25:42,360 So it's all very theoretical. So that brings me to the other thing that we don't know, 228 00:25:42,360 --> 00:25:48,420 and I actually don't think that that is incredibly important, but it is important to to mention it. 229 00:25:48,420 --> 00:26:00,270 And that is we do not know if Russia, for example, is officially in a doctrine using reflexive control or indeed, 230 00:26:00,270 --> 00:26:04,800 if they have actually figured out formally how to how to do this, 231 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:12,570 or if it's maybe something that is a bit more subconscious, like a hunch is something that you just do. 232 00:26:12,570 --> 00:26:15,510 And there has been a little bit of research on this. 233 00:26:15,510 --> 00:26:25,800 Recently, Colonel John Bannister from the Dutch Army has done quite an extensive study on Musculos and how that works in terms of strategy, 234 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,700 tactical, but also in terms of doctrine. 235 00:26:29,700 --> 00:26:41,520 And he says that actually all of this disinformation, active measures and reflexive control would fall under the umbrella of a master, of course. 236 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,890 And I think that he could be right. 237 00:26:43,890 --> 00:26:54,180 But if so, I'd really like to add certain components, which would mean that actually, I think these things might not be completely separate. 238 00:26:54,180 --> 00:27:01,710 I think if it is indeed like that, if they are indeed using it in a way that is written down in doctrine, then I think there's a bit of overlap. 239 00:27:01,710 --> 00:27:08,790 So for example, if you would have an active measures operations, there would be aspects of the aspects of disinformation. 240 00:27:08,790 --> 00:27:15,150 There would be aspects of reflexive control. And I think that a bit of overlap there. 241 00:27:15,150 --> 00:27:21,930 But one possibility I'd really like to consider and I'd like you to think about is that maybe 242 00:27:21,930 --> 00:27:30,060 the idea of reflexive control and the way of thinking might just be merged into active measures, 243 00:27:30,060 --> 00:27:37,720 for example, it might be that there's not, you know, I have a closet. I haven't dived into the Soviet archives yet. 244 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:43,110 Might be that there's not such a thing as a doctrinally written down active measures. 245 00:27:43,110 --> 00:27:47,280 That doesn't mean it's not useful, though, because actually, if I look at active measures, 246 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:54,600 I think yet there's quite a bit in there that really resonates with this way of thinking. 247 00:27:54,600 --> 00:28:00,900 So I think that it doesn't really matter in practise where it's it's looked timely or fits. 248 00:28:00,900 --> 00:28:13,380 It's anywhere doctrine. And because I see reflexive control as a way, we could look at risk and as an approach to a problem that we have. 249 00:28:13,380 --> 00:28:23,370 When I say risk, I mean risk from any foreign government, not, you know, not just that of the of the government of Russia. 250 00:28:23,370 --> 00:28:27,810 And I think we could really benefit from properly theorising this approach. 251 00:28:27,810 --> 00:28:32,700 And more specifically, I think there are two concepts of reflexive control, 252 00:28:32,700 --> 00:28:41,400 which I think could be of a high value right now, even if the theory is still a bit more like a concept. 253 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:50,550 The first concept I'd like to see if we can develop more formally and practically are the models of the self and the other, 254 00:28:50,550 --> 00:28:56,760 because I think I think models like these can help us think about perception and interactions. 255 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:03,330 And I think these can help us define these perceived utility sets, S.A.C. says. 256 00:29:03,330 --> 00:29:06,930 It's not something I've come across in in any Western literature. 257 00:29:06,930 --> 00:29:11,160 If somebody has, please let me know because it would be great to to learn about it. 258 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:16,320 But I think really that could be explored further because if we can get a better, 259 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:29,460 more realistic idea of what these utility sets look like to us and also to our adversaries, that can really help us understand the situation better. 260 00:29:29,460 --> 00:29:37,590 And then secondly, if we have indeed very consciously thought about these utility sets and and how how these things 261 00:29:37,590 --> 00:29:43,090 work and how different actions are perceived and what is being perceived as good and what is that? 262 00:29:43,090 --> 00:29:48,030 And what do you could then in terms of that, expect into what somebody is going to do? 263 00:29:48,030 --> 00:29:49,800 This will really help us, I think, 264 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:59,710 to think more strategically about what our vulnerabilities are and which vulnerabilities could be used to exploit for others to get what they want. 265 00:29:59,710 --> 00:30:02,350 And how they could be exploited and in what way? 266 00:30:02,350 --> 00:30:11,230 Again, that the other would see that as appropriate, you know, would the end justify the means or not, things like that. 267 00:30:11,230 --> 00:30:13,450 And I think if you think about it like that, 268 00:30:13,450 --> 00:30:23,350 a theory like this could help us identify risk areas what you might not have previously really considered as risks. 269 00:30:23,350 --> 00:30:33,100 And so when I say identifying vulnerabilities, I really also mean vulnerabilities in our threat perception process. 270 00:30:33,100 --> 00:30:42,100 And I think it'd be fair to say that this is likely to come down to our vulnerabilities and recognising non-kinetic risks because I'm quite 271 00:30:42,100 --> 00:30:51,310 confident that we are much more skilled at identifying genetic risks because that is a really core component of what intelligence does, 272 00:30:51,310 --> 00:30:54,640 for example. But non-kinetic risks. 273 00:30:54,640 --> 00:31:05,860 We have a little bit of a bit of difficulty identifying that on a large scale, and we have even more difficulty doing something about it. 274 00:31:05,860 --> 00:31:16,750 So one thing I think is really important with non-kinetic risks is, for example, our vulnerability to economic statecraft, economic statecraft. 275 00:31:16,750 --> 00:31:24,070 You can basically define as the influence that a country can have over another country through through business. 276 00:31:24,070 --> 00:31:34,120 And I think if we would use reflects control strategically as a as a model of thinking about things, you can really help us think more strategically, 277 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:43,150 for example, about about what is business and what is really conflict or what is maybe not conflict in itself, but what is going to prepare? 278 00:31:43,150 --> 00:31:51,880 What's the preparation for conflict? And I think also, sadly, economic statecraft provide us, 279 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:57,050 especially at the moment with an interesting example of what I think is reflects 280 00:31:57,050 --> 00:32:01,870 control and if not at all mysterious and does not involve any deception 281 00:32:01,870 --> 00:32:13,060 and is actually really quite transparent because all the data is there in open source because in the past few weeks has become painfully apparent how, 282 00:32:13,060 --> 00:32:22,150 for example, many of Germany's critical supply chains depends on businesses that are linked to the Kremlin, 283 00:32:22,150 --> 00:32:30,400 and for the past few years, they have not reduce that dependence, but rather they have increased this for the longest time. 284 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,120 They really believed that that was in their best interest, 285 00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:42,100 and it would be something that would save money and they could close their nuclear facilities. 286 00:32:42,100 --> 00:32:52,180 There were opportunities with an art stream, too, and there might even have been have been a mention or two about normalising relations with Russia. 287 00:32:52,180 --> 00:32:56,530 And it's that that sounds a bit ridiculous right now, doesn't it? 288 00:32:56,530 --> 00:33:05,320 And it sounds very logical that that was a risk, but for years, it wasn't really something that anyone really was too worried about, 289 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:12,610 or at least not to the extent that they would do something about it. And it was also not something that they weren't warned about, either. 290 00:33:12,610 --> 00:33:21,850 They were warned about it often by many people, and they made the decision that actually these dealings were their best or their best option. 291 00:33:21,850 --> 00:33:31,060 These were the things that were in their best interest, and something like this makes sense if you get the gold completely wrong, right? 292 00:33:31,060 --> 00:33:42,940 If you believe that the Kremlin's goal has been for Russia to develop a strong economy and to be a reliable trade partner, then it makes sense. 293 00:33:42,940 --> 00:33:55,120 Exceptions, exceptions matter. So to conclude, I think we really need to start seeing conflict as a whole, something integrated to the system. 294 00:33:55,120 --> 00:34:03,970 And this means that we have to force ourselves to think more long term and more strategically about the decisions that we make. 295 00:34:03,970 --> 00:34:09,670 And it also means that we have to be realistic about what our vulnerabilities are. 296 00:34:09,670 --> 00:34:15,400 For example, you are our critical supply chains vulnerable, making us vulnerable? 297 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:21,070 Can our reliance on this on a specific country for certain critical infrastructure? 298 00:34:21,070 --> 00:34:33,220 And can that be used against us? Can that be used to to harm us or our supply chains, for example, financing something that can be used against us? 299 00:34:33,220 --> 00:34:43,270 And I do believe that there is such a thing as a glass battlefield, but I do think we can and have to become better at understanding it. 300 00:34:43,270 --> 00:34:49,310 And I think that reflects control theory can help us get better at this. 301 00:34:49,310 --> 00:35:04,810 Thanks. And I just look, this is, you know, what you do is take a look at the theoretical framework. 302 00:35:04,810 --> 00:35:11,470 Be absolutely clear about the architecture in which we are going to do the analysis. 303 00:35:11,470 --> 00:35:17,230 It's quite clear there's been attempts to do analysis of some of these frameworks differ, which is made. 304 00:35:17,230 --> 00:35:23,500 Things are difficult for some definitions that anyway. So it's like I say so hats off, Evans applauding say great. 305 00:35:23,500 --> 00:35:32,810 Keep going at the framework, because that's important. One of the really nice insights you gave us, which I think will go away if is about risk. 306 00:35:32,810 --> 00:35:39,680 Right. So there seems to be an inherent modelling of vulnerability risk that needs to be carried out. 307 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:45,790 So I think the if you think the opposite, some of us use the heck out of it. 308 00:35:45,790 --> 00:35:49,750 Is this the opposite of that risk tolerance? 309 00:35:49,750 --> 00:35:58,180 So how much leeway or elasticity is that in the systems either being used or for us to be resilient against them that we can start to think about? 310 00:35:58,180 --> 00:36:03,040 I use one of the projects we have here at sea study is Minerva projects. 311 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:12,650 It's been a long standing five year project on social fragmentation of this in Europe states some great results produced so far. 312 00:36:12,650 --> 00:36:20,350 It's all based on accurate modelling. So do under theorised question mark. 313 00:36:20,350 --> 00:36:28,690 I'm not sure that everyone agrees with you. I think some people hope Syria, which is great historians would say. 314 00:36:28,690 --> 00:36:33,280 I'll remember, Voltaire said about French approval to shoot one two seven Lebanon nine again. 315 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,610 Proportion, it is. All right. Make sure of it goes back into line. 316 00:36:37,610 --> 00:36:41,920 I mean, that is a form of reflexive controls, so we shouldn't be minding the store. 317 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:50,590 Instinct was mentioned. You know, if you that's that's you're right. Market economics came in at the end, and I think it's absolutely going on. 318 00:36:50,590 --> 00:36:54,790 These are really very important and lots of interesting questions about threat perception. 319 00:36:54,790 --> 00:37:03,850 We know it's hugely important and we can make some judgements when we misperceive a threat by some investing huge, 320 00:37:03,850 --> 00:37:07,270 massive sums of money into something which is not actually done. 321 00:37:07,270 --> 00:37:11,470 We're not stretching right back, so we need to kind of be very careful what we're doing. 322 00:37:11,470 --> 00:37:15,370 But I love sure the supply chains dependencies is also theoretical. 323 00:37:15,370 --> 00:37:22,690 We'll strike you. Of course, if your further studies one other person's got away with here is if there was 324 00:37:22,690 --> 00:37:28,840 an ethical version of what your framing could be applied to peacebuilding. 325 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:35,230 Could we take malpractice and hostile actors and do something on that perception on my mind, 326 00:37:35,230 --> 00:37:43,920 which draws them in to making better judgements by business decisions which mean they lay down their arms right now that we need it? 327 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:50,609 Thanks so much for.