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Several speakers at this time are speaking about the future.

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Several also speak about civil military relations. We also have speakers who cover regions of the world.

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In particular, the conflict regions gets sufficient area.

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Last week we heard about UN peacekeeping and the deployment of peacekeeping, but this is rather different.

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This is a more robust approach to say and in particular looking at the Caucasus.

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And it's like I said, if you see if you don't really know, first of all, if you talk to people fully, the Harvard Kennedy School now.

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Since 2012, the Islamic school government is very difficult because the list of your great accolades.

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But amongst them we should mention that she was originally a soldier.

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So she's a soldier scholar and is now a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Minorities at Risk Advisory Board, Responsibility Task Force, Carnegie Foundation.

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New York is a Fulbright scholarship in Norway, which has been the focus of our day.

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And a colleague discovered this reception bridge in Bonn. So this is very much a field of design amongst all of us.

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There are no books on this problem of war and religion,

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but also about populations and minorities and those who are oppressed wouldn't read the full list

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because it would take too long silence to say that this is connected to your most recent article,

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The Denial and Punishment of the as if others will affect the success of counterinsurgency with your support,

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which you will appear to have during this research.

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Monica, thank you so much for coming because this is the living link between Frontex and anyway that we very much people are doing well.

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Thank you and thank you for coming.

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So as Rob said, this is sort of an ongoing project that I'm doing with a brilliant graduate student at Harvard, Uri Zuckoff,

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and we've already published one article in JPR that sort of looks at counterinsurgency and counterinsurgency tactics by states,

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in this case Moscow, the Russian government, the Ministry of Defence.

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And what is the best way to sort of counterinsurgency given the tactics that they use?

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So that first piece has been published. It's out in the Journal of Peace Research.

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You can go ahead and read it. And in that piece, we didn't differentiate by insurgent type.

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We just assumed that all the insurgents were motivated with the same sorts of ideas and ideologies.

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We didn't really differentiate the target sets, what they said that they were doing this paper, we do that.

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So we're looking at and we have data that's refined enough to say that was a religiously

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inspired operation versus this was more of a nationalist inspired operation.

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And I'll get into the data in a second. I don't think this is working, so I'll just put it in the keyboard.

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So the central question to this paper is, does the motivations of insurgents matter for how an insurgency involved evolved?

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They think about Syria. We have just secular actors, nationalist actors trying to defend against a corrupt state, but we also have Islamists active.

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And the question is, is should we be thinking about as a Western community, as outsiders, about targeting them differently?

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Mali, you had a case where you had the Tuareg national self-determination movement,

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much to their chagrin, aligning themselves with Islamists and regretting it.

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And so the key question is we're trying to figure out is, does it matter?

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So if you're trying to counter the Mali insurgency, are there particular villages where you go in there?

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There's a nationalist insurgency. Do you use different tactics?

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If we're talking about force, we're actually using talking about use of force, not necessarily concessions at this point.

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And in this case, it makes sense because Moscow actually doesn't give a lot of concessions.

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Anybody familiar with how they engage insurgents, particularly in the caucuses,

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and then do they respond differently to different kinds of counterinsurgency operations?

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And Moscow did make some strategic or tactical differences, depending upon how you define that, sir, do you have particular definitions?

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But Moscow does choose when it has an operation with there's a violent episode.

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How to counter that? Some cases it does nothing. It lets it pass.

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Other cases it goes in and it will cordon off an entire village.

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And we talk about that in the first paper as denial.

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So they actually set up roadblocks and they do not allow people to the best that they can do that in and out,

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because the idea is you isolate the insurgents or they actually have enough intelligence and they have pretty good intelligence,

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pretty good intel coming from both sides. And they go in and they pick out somebody.

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So they pick out Sir Hugh and they say, you've done perpetrated this operation.

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They threatened this family. In that case, they're actually punishing an individual or a set of individuals that they know is part of a cell.

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And Moscow knows this, and you can actually choose which operation is going to do some cases.

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Its decision is constrained by the forces on the ground, how close it is to a federal base or whether it's close to a police base.

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We do. This is a very deep. Complicated statistical analysis.

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We actually have data on all of that. So, Rob, I'll do the books for you just to explain how I came to this.

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So this is three of my books. Would you explain where I came from and why I got to this topic?

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So my first book was on The Geography of Ethnic Violence. And you can see here this is a map of the Caucasus.

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And in that book I was concerned about under what conditions is ethnic conflict?

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So you have a society riven by ethnic cleavages. When will you get violence?

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And so there I did a statistical analysis of all ethnic groups worldwide,

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looked at their settlement patterns and their relationships to the central government to try and figure out,

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does it matter whether they're urban or rural?

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It turns out urban minorities tend not to rebel if they're part of a broader sort of imperial kind of state.

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That's not the case for rural. So you think about the wars of former Yugoslavia.

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It's pretty much rural areas that sort of were up for.

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But then I did in-depth case studies and actually in that case, there was a situation in which Moscow negotiated, and that was with the Tatars.

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Tatarstan was in literally parts when the Soviet Union was dissolved in Kazakhstan, declared that I just want a greater autonomy.

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And Moscow was actually willing to negotiate with thousand. And we ended up not having violence there.

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Not the case when dealing with the Chechens. Moscow wouldn't even really meet with them at all.

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It really put down the line and said, absolutely not. So that was the first book.

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Then my second book was looking at Civil War Termination, and there I was interested in how do you get a durable peace?

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And again, looking at sort of the force structure and the security sector of a country after war ends, it turns out to be a critical factor.

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And unfortunately, if you look at most negotiated settlement, although it may be a part of the negotiated settlement,

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DDR, demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration are usually always part of it.

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But the actual reconstitution, the true security sector reform of the military tends not to happen.

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They may be part of the provisions, but then it's not implemented.

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And so in that book, I looked at all kinds of civil war settlements from victory for negotiated settlement,

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and learned a lot about how different sides think about the use of force within the state and

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sort of the commitments that each side needs to make to one another in order to feel secure.

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Right. Tonight, sort of key forms of fake ceasefires and stalemates which actually turn out to be more stable than negotiated settlements.

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And as military types, you understand why you're less likely to go after somebody if they're armed, whereas a negotiated settlement,

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one side usually will disarm or made sort, and the other side is that side to abrogate an agreement,

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which is what happened in Sudan when going couldn't.

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And then the third book was on the global resurgence of religion, investigating whether indeed there is a global resurgence of religion.

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And then sort of what are the dynamics of that?

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And in that book we had that the co-author, Dr. Timothy Shaw of Georgetown, Danso, taught at Notre Dame.

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And in that book, we have a couple of case studies on civil wars and terrorism.

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And what's important and what matters for this topic today is it turns out that religious actors are transnational actors,

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do have networks and ties and ideas and institutions that flow across borders,

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making it more difficult for states to sort of control what's happening within their borders.

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And so going back to my first book, two things.

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The first thing is I didn't differentiate ethnicity, meaning that I treated it the way most people or scholars treat it as a one category.

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There could be differences in language, differences in race, differences in religion or differences in culture.

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I didn't bother to unpack it. I just assumed that their ethnic differences from the centre versus the periphery, that was enough.

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And I was irritated me because anybody who knows the point of politics in Chechnya in the first war,

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it really was a national self-determination struggle. Right.

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But after 96, when they sued for peace in general because of peace, Yeltsin was not very happy about it.

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Basically, the Chechens won that war from 96 to 99.

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That's when you started seeing religion coming in much more into Chechnya,

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in part because it was an anarchic situation and some resources were coming in, ideas were flowing.

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And so from 96 to 99, you started seeing religion take on a much greater role.

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Well, I wasn't able to explain that because I didn't bother in my first book to unpack that.

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I could explain other things, but I couldn't explain that. And so I have always wanted to do that.

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And so that's what I'm doing in this research is really trying to understand, do different types of motivations matter for violence?

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And I'm talking large scale violence.

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And so I've been working on trying to really understand the core difference between an insurgent, a person, a citizen.

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Ask me if I were motivated by nationalism.

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If I say, you know, I did defend the US Constitution, I raised my hand, I was a patriot.

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I wasn't necessarily fighting over American. What does that mean?

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What happens is that you're fighting for some sort of imagined community.

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There may or may not be blood ties. And the idea is that you are going to sacrifice yourself individually for a group.

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And there is no guarantee that we as an individual is going to benefit from that.

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It just means that my country, my nation is going to live on as a result of my sacrifice.

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That's there. And there's something good about that, about my nation that I'm willing to fight and die for.

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Moreover, you tend to be nationalism is within a confined territory, so you tend to be fighting over a particular set of lands or territories.

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When you're fighting a long national story, you're thinking about fighting along national lines.

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So immortality comes in, right? But it comes in for the group, for the nation.

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It's not the case for religious actors. So if you read the work of Mark Juergens Meyer, Jessica Stern,

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there really is a sense among some and I'm throwing that these are ideal types and being a very, very new person here.

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There is a sense that the person believes if they really are fighting and dying for religious tenets, that they're going to have to somehow be safe.

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Go to heaven here, implying that the Abrahamic traditions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity,

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where there's a sense of heaven, and it turns out that Judaism actually heaven and salvation don't play a larger role.

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But for Islam and for Christians, there is a sense of you're going to go to heaven and that you as an individual, your sacrifice,

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if you really believe that you're doing this for God, for some divine purpose,

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for some presidential reason, that your individual salvation will be there.

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So you believe that it's not the case. The other thing is that attachment to a particular territory.

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We know that there's Jerusalem.

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I've done a lot of work in Jerusalem, but the idea of when you're part of a religious community, that's different from a national community.

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Is that a true definition of a church is where your fellow members are?

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So the Catholic Church is actually global? Yes.

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There's Rome. Yes, there things that people say. But the real church is really where your members are.

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And so the attachment to a particular land or circumscribed land is broader than it is for nations.

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So you don't have this sort of self-contained. And we your united prophesies that this matters for how expansive a given fight

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is if you're countering religious insurgents versus nationalists or insurgents.

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So nationalist, we argue, would tend to be or tend to more readily look like defensive localised fights within a circumscribed territory.

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And anybody who's looked in the history of Europe, we can we will pick on the Hungarians and Hungarians here.

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You know, when the Hungarians pull out a map, they are always going to have a map that's the most expansive back to the 17th and 18th centuries.

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They don't go to the 20th century. And it's because nationals are trying that they have a sense of what the land is, but it's still sort of located.

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There's still a focal point about what constitutes the Hungarian homeland and most nations.

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There's a couple of exceptions. The Roma don't have a homeland, but we know about them precisely because they're an exception.

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So why Islamist insurgents are not picking on Islam.

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And in fact, I've written another whole book in an article on why I think it's Islam.

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I think it's where Muslim societies are in their sort of political development trajectory.

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And we can I can give you that whole argument about because Christianity back in the 40,

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50, 60 to 70 centuries was politicised and instrumentalized for political reasons.

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And we just seem to be in a phase or a historical period right now where Muslim societies

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are trying to figure out what the proper role of religion is within their societies.

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And there are some interpretations that are more extremist.

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And we can talk about sort of the reinterpretation of jihad, like YouTube and the idea that it's no longer an internal struggle,

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but external struggle and individuals wrong has an individual responsibility to go out and defend their who.

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So I've done a lot of work on civil wars and it turns out that most civil wars, upwards of three quarters, if you look at religiously inspired,

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religiously based civil wars,

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and that's where the combatants actually identify with the different faiths within the war or the fighting over religion.

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So you could stand there was a fight after the Soviet Union collapsed.

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Whether it was going to be a Sharia law, actually, Sharia law was going to be the main rule of the land.

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Whereas the war, the former Yugoslavia, it's still debated among scholars the degree to which religion was central.

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I think most scholars, if you had to really weigh in, just sort of a meta analysis,

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there's a sense it was more much more peripheral than it was, let's say, in Afghanistan or in the Yucatan.

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But if you so so there's peripheral and central. If you look at both types, nine out of ten of them involve Islam as one of the combatants, one side.

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And then two thirds of them are the ones where it's between sort of Muslims and Christians involved as Muslims as one side.

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And then if you look at terrorism, we know this itself. Muhammad has probably done the definitive study on this, broadly speaking, final piece,

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done the work on the suicide terrorism all about denies religion with anything to do with it.

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You know, a number of discussion point ones about it.

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If you look at it since 1981, most of the suicide terrorism episodes that we've witnessed, it is people who are inspired by Salafi jihadism.

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So this idea that you have an obligation to defend against outsiders, not only infidels, but apostates people,

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do you think that fellow Muslims who don't accept your interpretation of scripture and then if you look at jihadi suicide missions,

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most of them are committed by Islamists of the Salafi variant.

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So types of religious violence are just like we didn't really differentiating aggregate different kinds of ethnicity and ethnic violence.

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We didn't we were a little sloppy. Still is a field that feels like accumulation of knowledge we're getting there.

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Thomas Hegghammer, I think, was the first person to differentiate different kinds of religious violence to get our head around it.

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So there's the nationalist separatist. So this would be Chechnya after 99, right,

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where you really had people sort of trying to split off because they some of the Chechens felt as if they needed to be separate from Moscow.

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Then you have the pan religious. Some of the Chechens of Bucyrus would be sort of the national separatist, the more moderate era.

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It would be a more he's a pan jihadist after pictures of these guys,

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a pampered artist who thinks that all the Caucasus should be part of a caliphate that extends this arc across.

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And then there's a revolutionary. I see these guys as vigilantes.

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So these are the guys in the street, the kind of guys who are throwing acid in young women's faces.

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They're trying to correct behaviour, they're social, they're vigilantes.

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And so, again, looking at the data, we're trying to get a sense of if Moscow is facing different kinds of insurgents from a religious cut,

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from the religious law, what should they be doing and how should they be thinking about combating them?

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So again, sort of back to the introduction,

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we think we hypothesise in this paper that the basis of motivation may influence the strategy of the actors and influence their priorities.

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So what are they trying to achieve?

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Are they going to go after federal structures or are they going to go to a bathhouse where there's wine and drinking?

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Right. And so which one are they going to do?

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So, national interest, national separatist, they're more likely to attack police stations, government officials, assassinations, that sort of thing.

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But if they're more of this vigilante type,

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then they're more likely to go after where they see sort of moral corruption happening and attacks like here,

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the national cyber attack, Moscow, or anybody that they see as Representative Moscow or a proxy government that they think is sort of helping Moscow.

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PAN-ISLAMIC They'll attack Western Muslim transgressors.

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And then the revolutionary, the vigilantes will attack fellow Muslims, that they'll go after the apostates rather than the infidels.

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So the empirical questions. I'm a barefoot empiricist. I love data and I like data to help me to adjudicate theories and I participate.

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So that's why this paper is fun for me,

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because we can actually go in and ask these questions and then sort of let the data adjudicate whether you agree with the interpretations.

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It's different, but we have a number of empirical questions that we just did not know the answers to.

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So one, how fit all does religion shape the insurgency?

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What does it look like?

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If you can really take and just say this was an insurgent attack that was based in religious motivation, does it look differently than other kinds?

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Didn't know that question before we started the research. Do they fight differently from those with more traditional aims?

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And here I'm talking about nationalists, what we think of most civil wars or insurgencies.

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And then do they again select different types of strategies, targets and respond to different types of incentives?

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So are they more likely to respond differently with selective incentives?

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So the targeting sort of the punishment strategy, it turns out,

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is do not like it versus and but it turns out that selective sense of punishment of nationalists works better.

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And I think somehow it carries them better. And then the local global dimension of the fight.

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Is it the case that these are local fights that sort of have this overlay for greater legitimacy?

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Or is there really sort of a global pattern or global dynamics that are influencing?

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And we have some data that show that indeed, actually, among the religious insurgents,

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there does seem to be a connection to things happening globally or at least beyond the borders of the caucuses.

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So here this is Bob Pape, although this looks like a straw man argument,

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I think you guys agree Bob Gates argument is a strong argument, that religion has nothing to do with suicide terrorist campaigns.

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And I just don't you know, I think Assad my Hagedorn has written a really beautiful rebuttal, Bob, to say you're right on some.

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But the truth is there are many in many cases in which your argument that the religious dimensions are incredibly important for us to understand them.

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But the point is, is that Bob's argument is that all violence is local, it's about the local occupier.

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And if you remember when he published his first piece in the American Political Science Review, al Qaeda was not even part of the data set from 911.

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His involved scratching his head saying, oh, how do you how do I explain that?

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And what he ended up saying was that al Qaeda sees all of the Middle East as its homeland, which you could make that argument.

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But the problem is there's a lot of al Qaeda affiliates that don't necessarily see the Middle East as as as reminiscent of that.

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So this is one argument that's out there in the literature that all politics, all violence is local, all politics is local.

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But then there's another argument.

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And again, I think Assad has done a really nice job on this, but there are other people Kilcullen sort of marries the two,

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saying that there is they say that because there's a local or global sort of connection.

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But it's obvious that no, in this modern era, especially after 911.

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So what's nice about the piece is going to be through his book is that he says people can see prior to 2000, prior to 1995,

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but after 1995, there was a real shift where there seemed to be sort of this global community emerging to fight for global ideals.

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And so the idea was that there's a linking of leadership, personnel, resources, ideas across different fights.

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And so nobody has really adjudicated these two arguments empirically.

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And that's what we're doing is a very simple exercise that we're trying to do.

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Who who's more right and who's more wrong? It's not black and white.

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We actually in the paper, we end up concluding that Kilcullen is probably more right than both.

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And so, again, we're looking at the caucuses, the north caucuses, and pretty much the action happens in Chechnya.

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But it does start emanating out after 97, 98 into Dagestan and then Russia.

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And now we're actually seeing some of the violence going deeper into the Russian heartland, including in two, by the way, moderate Tatarstan.

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We're now starting to see moderate imams being targeted in Tatarstan,

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which is sort of it's a very tragic I told you I was going to show you some faces.

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So we've had Boris Yeltsin restore peace, swiping power from Gorbachev back in the late 1980s,

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early nineties, followed by Vladimir Putin, of course, the current president.

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This is do die of who was the first president, who was the first leader of the Chechen independence movement.

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He was an air force general, secular but pious. He was an Islamist.

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He was a muslim who he had faith but kept it private to himself.

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He was actually called back or called to Chechnya out of, I think it was Latvia with his unit.

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And so we really he had been watching the independence movements in the.

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And the Chechen independence movement asked him to lead it.

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And so he did end up becoming the leader of the Chechen independence movement.

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He ended up getting killed on the battlefield, committed national strike.

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He died on the battlefield. Moscow killed him. He was replaced by a sort of more pious man, but still believe that religion should be kept private.

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Was not interested in sort of imposing Sharia law throughout Chechnya because remember,

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a large portion of the population is still Russian speaking or ethnic Russian.

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It wasn't all Chechens. And on top of that, Chechnya, these espouse a particular kind of Islam, which is Sufi and very local.

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And so it's very controversial.

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And this idea of bringing in a Wahhabi Salafist Islam to a region that actually abides by a tradition, Islamic tradition, that's quite different.

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But they tried.

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And the guy who sort of initiated it was this guy, CIA, who had ran against McConnell for presidency and lost and was pretty upset about it.

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He was not pleased for having to play second fiddle. And so he's the one that sort of really ramped up.

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And so I had gone to Moscow and interviewed a lot of people who were associated with him to find

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out who was the committed nationalist and to ask the question in sitting in the interim hotel,

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which I think is now gone. And so was he a committed nationalist, or was did you really think that religion should be part of the public arena?

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And his closest interlocutors could not answer that question. Most of them thought that you probably you did want political power.

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He did run for president of Chechnya, but he was also religious and and deeply religious.

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And I say that not really understanding what that meant for him.

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I can't get in his mind, but it was a question mark. But in any event, he used religion, right?

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In one of my articles to talk about opening, why we start opening, we use religion to challenge.

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MISHLOVE And the thought of starting screaming to Putin, say, the Islamists, the Wahhabis are coming.

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I need your help. And Moscow would not listen similar to what they were doing the early nineties.

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They would not negotiate with the Chechens. So what did they do to kill them?

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So moderate, right? Killed him. He ends up getting killed.

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And so now we're stuck with this guy, Doku Umarov, who is trying to establish an Islamic caliphate across the Caucasus region.

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And Umarov really does.

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I have an interview about him, but his statements, if you go to the Kept Cause website, you can see clearly that they really do see themselves.

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And he is the leader of a global jihadist enterprise.

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All right. So why are the North caucuses a diversity of cases?

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So we've got multiple republics, multiple regions and lots of data.

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Moreover, we have variation across the region in terms of violence.

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Some villages are highly implicated. Of course, Grozny is the heart of it all, but some say the heart of it all.

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And then we have a variety of geographic socioeconomic factors, levels of unemployment.

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One of the most common arguments stuff is these are just men who don't have anything else to do, you know?

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So this is an opportunity structure so that they can go and fight.

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But we so we can control for that. And then, of course, Moscow has, you know,

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perpetrator where develop this narrative that this is sort of the heart or a heart of the global jihadist struggle,

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and that what they're fighting is global jihadis. And so we sort of question that.

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Is it the case? It might be the case. And actually there's some evidence to that, but it's not as strong as Moscow would have us believe.

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And then you have locals and actually, Medvedev, when he came in,

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he did actually say that a lot of this is locally driven and he helped develop a lot of Chechen

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infrastructure and roads rebuilding it after the the obliteration in 1999 and following.

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But the other thing is some people stress the local grievances more so the data.

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So this is all episodes of violence is reported from 2000 to 2012 is 31,000 reported episodes.

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So you can do a lot of you can play and really run a lot of different controls.

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There were 9200 episodes of rebel initiated violence.

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So we know that the rebels went in and they bombed the Republican House, but they would go into a federal police checkpoint.

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Right. And then the government had taken about 23,000 responses or counter responses or attacks.

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It's it's memorial, which is one of the most respected human rights organisations in Russia,

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collected all these data and coded them into reports that we then could extract and analyse,

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and they always gave the village name, the date, the time.

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And what's really striking, we think some of these insurgents really didn't watch too much Hollywood movies,

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is they often declare why they're doing what they're doing.

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They say why they're doing it. And so we have some reports where they say, you know, you're all sitting here thinking,

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why on this glorious afternoon, if we come back again, we're going to do this again.

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And so the reports, a good number of the reports, we actually do know why the insurgents are doing what they're doing or they've

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been captured and memorial has gotten hold of the jail records for the people.

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So the reports have all it's it's the wonderful data set from that perspective is terrible

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because the topic but it's a wonderful data set from that perspective and then they're geo coded.

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So one of the questions we're interested in is the spatial distribution of violence.

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And so we know exactly where pinpointing where each villages and we can see a village.

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Why had it not violent episode do we see it right next door and visit Rosie or does it go to Village D over there?

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And it turns out with the Islamists actually is more likely to go to Village D, whereas for the nationalists, it's more likely to go to the.

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So the actors there described or self-described, they say who they are sometimes with terms such as Muslim, Salafist, Mujahideen or Wahhabi.

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So again, we're looking for religious inspiration. What do you see you're fighting for?

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And then, are there terrorist attacks, hostage taking, kidnapping, firefights, ambushes?

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So we're looking at the actions and then the targets.

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And so in order for us to have coded as an episode of Islamist violence and how to have one in each of those three categories,

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so it's pretty we're pretty confident that we're doing that.

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And again, for us, we said if a village experienced one episode of Violence over then has done it,

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then in a month, then they were coded as a one in our analysis.

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So again, I was telling you about the sauna. It's like I said, I think they watch too much Hollywood TV.

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So to say, if we once again learn that drunkenness and debauchery, I mean, it's just great language take place here, we will leave anyone alive.

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And so there's sort of warning saying we control the town. This is a social vigilante, a moral vigilante.

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And then the group left the sauna without doing any harm. But the next time they come back and they move from a molotov cocktail at the at the sauna.

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All right. So the key findings and wrapping it up, although I have some interesting data to show to support each of these key findings,

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um, I'm going to run through each one of them.

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So it turns out one of the key findings is that this violence overall is really a small proportion of the violence.

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If you read the rhetoric coming out of Moscow, erm 97 let's say,

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although in 96 they already started issuing concern about is when it's coming into the region,

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but at least after 97, 98 you would think that all of the violence is, is in this,

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but it varies in range anywhere from about, you know, seven, it matches 90%.

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That's the most expansive definition we use. The intermediate is we're pretty confident that we that's actually capturing what we think of.

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But it ranges from 3% to 17% of all violence, which means the vast majority of violence in the region is, if you want to think about it,

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religiously inspired versus political, national separatist, get off our backs, get out of our territory.

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All right. So most of the violence is not religiously inspired.

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However, the violence that is religiously inspired is small, but it's increasing and it has been increasing over time and again.

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It is there is evidence we have data showing that there are jihadis, outsiders, foreigners coming in, tracking that over time.

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But you can see that over time the Islamist violence has been increasing over time.

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And then you can see where most of what's happening in lighting in here is terrible.

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So you can't really see. But Chechnya gets the bulk of it in terms of the both kinds of violence.

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And then the Islamist is more contained in the Dagestan in the Chechen region.

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But it has been spreading over time. And this is the number of events of 50, 100, 100, 200.

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Um. All right.

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Islamist attacks are more indiscriminate.

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So one of the hypotheses is that if you really think that you're going to die and then other people are apostates or infidels,

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you don't want to die and you don't want to take it out with you.

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And so some of my earlier research showed that civilians in religiously inspired civil wars tend to suffer more deaths,

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higher civilian casualty counts in religious civil wars.

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And we find that here and this is percentage, the 43%.

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Let's stick with the intermediate 36% of all Islamist inspired violent attacks kill civilians versus 29%.

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And that's statistically significant. So if you're in so what it means to us is, is they're going after softer targets.

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They're going after places where there's more civilians, cafes.

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So you're sitting there having a nice cup of coffee, espresso with your friends, and somebody comes and you're more likely to be a target.

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And Islamist violence, whereas nationalists, there's a sense that they circumscribe it.

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They're a little bit more careful about what they're targeting people around them.

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It's a tighter circle. And then again, Islamist violence is more deadly.

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Another finding from some earlier work I had done in that.

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Religiously inspired civil wars are more deadly overall, not just towards civilians, but overall.

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And they tend to last longer. They last about a year and a half longer. On average.

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This is all averages.

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And you can see that religiously inspired attacks really result in fatalities 36% of the time, whereas non-religious only 26% of the time.

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So they're more effective. I mean, if their job how is that any more conditional if their job is to kill,

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it turns out the Islamists are more effective in doing that and that that follows from sort of the indiscriminate nature they're more likely.

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So this is trying to get at the difference between nationalism and being tied to a particular land.

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And indeed, if you look, Chechnya has seen 60% of all attacks that we think is conducted by nationalists and 45% by Islamists.

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But what's interesting is the majority of Islamist attacks did not take place in Chechnya.

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It took in the rest of the region as well has been suffering from Islamist attacks as well.

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So Chechnya has bore the brunt of this, which makes sense is where the big push for national self-determination independence took place.

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But it is more widespread beyond the broader region.

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And the Islamist is is more widespread than the the nationalists.

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And then here this is actually looking from you have a village and then we wanted to see where did the next attack occur, how far away.

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And it's similar to the data about more expansive for the religious violence.

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The Islamist was more expansive, so there was 133 kilometres.

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So you imagine going and attacking a liquor store or a police station appearance and this made it clear why they're doing it.

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They then drive about 133 km and perpetrate their next attack, whereas the nationalists stay put,

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they only go 50 kilometres, 60 kilometres, so an hour away versus 2 hours away.

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And again, this one supports the idea that nationalists are more self contained or they stay more self contained.

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And then again, this is back to trying to adjudicate Magog Adam from hey, thinking that Colin is writing a secret.

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Colin is right and looking at the relationship to mean number of international suicide attacks.

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So this is using, um, the, the, um,

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the suicide database put together by the US government and tracking it to the violence episodes that we have in our data dataset.

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And you can see that the ism is violence more so tracks to global suicide attacks so and so the question is,

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is is there a sense of camaraderie when you witness a suicide attack?

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But this relationship, you can just see by the numbers, 16% to 40%.

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They're not as large as you know.

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They're still statistically significant, but there's not a huge relationship there, lending more support to the idea that it's more local.

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It's not the case for holidays. I was really shocked that actually this is so tied to the religious calendar.

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So Ron has in or has some interesting work really trying to track battles and wars based on what he sees.

383
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,900
His thinking is, is if you're really doing God's divine work,

384
00:36:11,260 --> 00:36:16,329
then you're going to be favoured by God during Rosh Hashanah or, you know, seven days or something.

385
00:36:16,330 --> 00:36:21,600
Right. And so he I think he we sent this paper to said, Monica, did you look at the religious calendar?

386
00:36:22,660 --> 00:36:26,020
Well, here it is. And actually, it's actually pretty tightly connected.

387
00:36:26,350 --> 00:36:33,940
And what's really interesting is that the target based ones, that they're the ones that those are sort of the vigilante guys.

388
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:36,340
They're the bad guys on the Hawks.

389
00:36:36,590 --> 00:36:41,919
I mean, they go out and there are you know, you could make a secular, very practical argument for why they're doing it.

390
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,129
They're off from work. Right. But I don't know.

391
00:36:45,130 --> 00:36:50,770
I think the idea the fact that it goes from the expanded definition of what constitutes an nuisance all the way down to the

392
00:36:50,770 --> 00:36:58,450
guys that we really think are doing it for the reasons that there's it seems to lend support that the more intense you are,

393
00:36:58,450 --> 00:37:03,820
the more that the religious calendar are you, the more it would be a theology of underpinning what you're doing.

394
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:10,470
And then this is back to sort of we're looking at this is a really complicated way.

395
00:37:10,740 --> 00:37:14,670
But is it the case that if you go in you attack individuals with intelligence,

396
00:37:15,060 --> 00:37:20,690
which is more effective against, um, know against Islamist than nationals.

397
00:37:20,700 --> 00:37:30,269
And it turns out that it's less effective against nationalists but more effective against Islamists, meaning that the nationalist,

398
00:37:30,270 --> 00:37:35,490
you can cow them more easily, you can actually nationalist, you can fight them more easily,

399
00:37:35,820 --> 00:37:39,120
that you can actually get them to sort of stop the violence.

400
00:37:39,420 --> 00:37:41,190
The Islamist, it's more difficult,

401
00:37:41,430 --> 00:37:46,800
which is good news and bad news because if it is the case that we're seeing and we're seeing more Islamist violence,

402
00:37:47,910 --> 00:37:51,720
the bad news is that governments are going to have a harder time fighting them.

403
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:56,430
It's worth going in and doing. Selective incentives.

404
00:37:56,640 --> 00:38:00,870
Actually going after Islamist is not as effective a strategy.

405
00:38:02,790 --> 00:38:06,510
So summary one of two and I'm finishing up now.

406
00:38:06,750 --> 00:38:09,959
So it turns out that globally religious belief and practice are on the rise.

407
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:16,830
There's exceptions Western Europe, but only corners of Western Europe for Danes have no faith at all.

408
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:23,400
These 11% believe in God today. Um, but beyond sort of you can read the God century,

409
00:38:23,420 --> 00:38:28,320
but we have lots of data on that sense and sort of people who are adhering to

410
00:38:28,530 --> 00:38:32,400
religious traditions is on the rise and also pushing it into the public arena.

411
00:38:33,810 --> 00:38:37,980
And then understanding the conditions under which conflicts would be framed in religious

412
00:38:37,980 --> 00:38:43,320
terms is therefore critical because I have a slide show here that since the 1970s,

413
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,100
the proportion of civil wars that had a religious ten to them has really gone up.

414
00:38:47,710 --> 00:38:55,770
And and so religious wars, they're not only increasing over time, half of all civil wars raging,

415
00:38:55,770 --> 00:39:04,319
although I haven't done a count since for two years I stopped in 210, 2010, then half of all civil wars had a religious turn.

416
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,160
I think it's probably more now with Syria, Mali and Libya.

417
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:13,200
I mean, where are we with Libya today? And then religious wars are nastiest of all types.

418
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:18,330
Again, I already told you that they're harder on civilians. They last longer, the harder to terminate.

419
00:39:18,660 --> 00:39:24,210
And by the way, they're more likely to recur. So if even if you get them ended, they're more likely to recur.

420
00:39:26,100 --> 00:39:32,549
And then within that's the broad general finding within the caucuses itself.

421
00:39:32,550 --> 00:39:36,720
Islamist violence is a small share. Overall, this is a really important finding.

422
00:39:36,720 --> 00:39:41,459
I presented this work in Moscow. They don't care. They say they see Islamists everywhere.

423
00:39:41,460 --> 00:39:47,550
But but it really is important because it really is going to call your attention to what we should do to be countering these.

424
00:39:47,850 --> 00:39:50,850
And I would hope just thinking about different kinds of motivations.

425
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:55,170
We won't be so lumpen in our approach to trying to combat and combat it.

426
00:39:55,950 --> 00:40:03,690
Most of the difference in sort of the targeting and the outcomes that we're witnessing is a difference in scale,

427
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:08,940
not kind, which again is very important. And you could think, well, Monica, why did you go through all this work?

428
00:40:09,180 --> 00:40:13,680
Well, we actually didn't know. We really thought that the Islamists were going to be these die hard.

429
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:17,190
You absolutely can't put them down. There's some truth to that.

430
00:40:18,060 --> 00:40:21,120
But it means that you're probably going to have to go even a little harder.

431
00:40:21,130 --> 00:40:23,280
I hate to say that you were advocating more violence,

432
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:33,780
but and then Islamist violence does follow suicide trends more closely than nationalist or non Islamist is more geographically dispersed.

433
00:40:33,780 --> 00:40:41,220
I think this is important because in a sense my looking at this sort of the play of what's happened in the Caucasus,

434
00:40:41,460 --> 00:40:47,880
Moscow has sort of in some ways created a more dispersed fight than might have been the case.

435
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,379
And then Islamist violence is less responsive to coercion,

436
00:40:52,380 --> 00:40:57,930
to this sort of selective incentive of going in and pulling somebody out and then, you know, good academic.

437
00:40:57,930 --> 00:41:02,390
But this is really the Caucasus. This data are really tiresome caucuses.

438
00:41:02,490 --> 00:41:05,879
And so I feel confident things about the Caucasus.

439
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,910
We really run the numbers and so does it hold.

440
00:41:09,390 --> 00:41:14,520
And I'd be curious to have a discussion about that. If anybody knows any other wars or conflicts,

441
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:18,719
are they seeing sort of similar dynamics or do they know of any other studies that can

442
00:41:18,720 --> 00:41:24,030
help us where we're starting to look at Syria and Mali because it's papers under review,

443
00:41:24,070 --> 00:41:30,750
people said, how generalisable is this? I think it is, but I can't say that with any confidence at this point.

444
00:41:31,740 --> 00:41:35,490
All right. Theoretical implications, motivations matter.

445
00:41:35,490 --> 00:41:37,860
And we think that different kinds of bids matter.

446
00:41:37,860 --> 00:41:44,400
So you watch the politics and we think that when religion enters the political arena, it can get very nasty.

447
00:41:45,300 --> 00:41:50,700
And so you try to do that and then you try to control that and tamp down on that.

448
00:41:52,380 --> 00:41:58,140
And then I do think the global aspects of transnational actors, such as religious actors matter.

449
00:41:58,140 --> 00:42:02,400
There's interpretations of texts, and those interpretations flow over Internets.

450
00:42:02,670 --> 00:42:08,700
We know about these sort of Internet ayatollahs and imams that are influencing people thousands of miles away.

451
00:42:09,930 --> 00:42:15,239
And then the north caucuses, successful leads made religious bids besides was successful.

452
00:42:15,240 --> 00:42:23,760
I hate to say it methodic was not now important because this interlocutor in Moscow did not listen and decided that assassination was a better option.

453
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:28,229
They were wrong. Methodic probably could have ushered in a period of peace in that region.

454
00:42:28,230 --> 00:42:32,850
It was really a lost moment. And so now we're going to probably live another generation.

455
00:42:32,850 --> 00:42:34,620
I mean, the violence is it's subdued.

456
00:42:34,620 --> 00:42:43,440
They've put in place to be more off this young man who's basically a thug and he's put in place a police state and he's got Moscow's backing.

457
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:52,410
But but there's very little political liberty and sustained peace in the region and then variations and outcomes.

458
00:42:52,890 --> 00:42:55,920
We think this is one of the clear conclusions in our paper.

459
00:42:56,100 --> 00:42:59,730
But again, it's variation and count comes in scale, not in kind.

460
00:42:59,790 --> 00:43:04,590
It's very important that we have to take these different kinds of motivations into account.

461
00:43:05,340 --> 00:43:10,860
Policy implications. I'm at the New School of Government, the Public Schools, so I'm going to talk about the policy implications.

462
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:18,659
So Islam is disproportionately implicated in violence of all sorts, but most of the violence is directed at apostates.

463
00:43:18,660 --> 00:43:22,559
As a great study done by West Point, try to wag its finger at al Qaeda.

464
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:28,980
And all its affiliates say that, you know, it is going to indicate you're trying to defend Islam.

465
00:43:29,370 --> 00:43:35,430
The killing of fellow Muslims predominantly, I think, is the findings of that 85% or 90% of the victims.

466
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:44,309
And then I think that really trying to understand why a conflict escalates and thinking about our models that we use.

467
00:43:44,310 --> 00:43:47,370
The security dilemma, the deterrence model. Spiral models.

468
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:52,650
Is it fear or is it greed is a combination of both. Why are the actors doing what they're doing?

469
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,680
So not all violence is local, but most of it is.

470
00:43:58,130 --> 00:44:03,020
We actually think, again, that, you know, this is the data showing the global connections.

471
00:44:03,020 --> 00:44:06,259
There are some relationships there, but they're not as strong, I think,

472
00:44:06,260 --> 00:44:12,770
as a staff who would like us to believe that Bob is not completely right, it's weird.

473
00:44:13,700 --> 00:44:17,040
And then we think governments are in a position to contain it, to make things worse.

474
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,450
So strategy matters, counterinsurgency tactics matter.

475
00:44:21,410 --> 00:44:25,160
And then the first paper, turning a blind eye.

476
00:44:25,790 --> 00:44:32,959
You actually do want to contain control borders. And so in the first paper, we do show that having more porous borders,

477
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:38,420
because it turns out the different republics have different border policies it actually can inflame.

478
00:44:38,420 --> 00:44:43,040
So one of the policy recommendations out of the first paper, which we sort of are seeing in this paper,

479
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:49,160
is that if you want to sort of close your border and not allow jihadists, why are they there to mark up trouble?

480
00:44:49,340 --> 00:44:55,520
So there we agree with Moscow or actually the republics was individual Republican leaders that decided to do border policy.

481
00:44:56,660 --> 00:45:04,819
And our argument, which we think the data support is that it can only sort of locally the global jihad if there's grievances on the ground.

482
00:45:04,820 --> 00:45:11,090
And, you know, in the case of the caucuses, of course, from the caucuses perspective, they think they'll be fighting a war for 300 years.

483
00:45:11,510 --> 00:45:17,270
Moscow's perspective, they supposed to be fighting for a couple weeks, but this has been ongoing for a long time.

484
00:45:17,270 --> 00:45:22,370
So history, you really have to understand the history and the grievances at play and respect them.

485
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:26,630
And starting in the nineties, at least we can talk about the modern Russian era.

486
00:45:27,650 --> 00:45:34,610
Moscow just was not interested in listening. Medvedev seemed to be a little bit more sympathetic, but he's not there anymore.

487
00:45:34,610 --> 00:45:38,420
And we've got Putin back, and Putin really does believe in an iron fist.

488
00:45:39,860 --> 00:45:42,660
And so I will end it there. But I think you.