1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,570 Today is Professor Thermo Fisher. 2 00:00:05,340 --> 00:00:14,910 He's a professor at the Economy to the Rescue, which, for those of you who do not know, is the French equivalent, as it were, to Sandhurst. 3 00:00:15,150 --> 00:00:23,960 He's a historian by training, but has been involved in teaching cadets, not just French cadets, in fact, but international graduates as well. 4 00:00:23,970 --> 00:00:32,100 Not just that since here but also previously the Ecole about his area of specialisation is Iraq. 5 00:00:32,430 --> 00:00:37,940 In fact, I'm watching thinking that you are fluent in Persian more or less as well. 6 00:00:37,950 --> 00:00:43,170 So there is linguistic competence here of a kind that some historians dream of. 7 00:00:43,740 --> 00:00:48,420 His latest works on Iran or Persian negotiation culture. 8 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:56,370 And then there's another couple of other books Russia, Iran, China, a New Mongol Empire. 9 00:00:56,910 --> 00:01:05,700 And finally, Iran Beyond Islamism. And the title of his talk this afternoon is Hassan Rouhani Strategy to Avoid War. 10 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,160 So without further ado, let's welcome the speaker. Mr. 11 00:01:11,420 --> 00:01:18,140 Thank you very much for your invitation and very happy to be out of here for two days and seeing uniforms everywhere. 12 00:01:18,170 --> 00:01:25,840 Even though I know there are a few fake civilians in the room, the initial lights produced by a nuclear explosion. 13 00:01:25,910 --> 00:01:35,510 A nuclear explosion causes flash blindness, a wound that can last up to 40 minutes by a game of mirrors and repetitions. 14 00:01:36,950 --> 00:01:41,780 The Iranian nuclear bomb has exploded virtually every day on our screens, 15 00:01:42,470 --> 00:01:48,110 and we have become self-deluded and incapable of understanding the Iranian 16 00:01:48,350 --> 00:01:55,460 strategies as they are so beyond artificial explosions and force eliminations. 17 00:01:55,850 --> 00:02:00,770 Let us let us search for the true lights. 18 00:02:01,340 --> 00:02:08,419 Dimming illuminates humour. Iranian strategies fascinate France since the Renaissance. 19 00:02:08,420 --> 00:02:13,670 And if you look at this Persian lady on the French Renaissance manuscript, 20 00:02:13,670 --> 00:02:18,440 and if you reverse the sheet she's holding, you will clearly distinguish a royal lady. 21 00:02:19,250 --> 00:02:28,610 So France. So Iran is has been seen in France as the Eastern Mirror as the other and eastern France in the same time. 22 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:37,520 The king of France is a new David. We we have forgotten these things. 23 00:02:37,730 --> 00:02:44,120 We have forgotten, for example, that the one of the heroes of Show Peru's fairy tale is the Musketeer. 24 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,390 GARBUS The cat is, in fact, Shah Abbas. 25 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:52,460 The current sovereign of the time. We have forgotten. But the Iranians have long memories. 26 00:02:54,770 --> 00:03:06,470 And Iran currently tries to apply the old French policy of equilibrium between the great powers India, China. 27 00:03:06,650 --> 00:03:11,120 The United States. What about Hassan Rouhani? 28 00:03:12,170 --> 00:03:18,200 Hassan Rouhani has been elected on the 15th of June and very quickly, within a few weeks, a few months, 29 00:03:18,590 --> 00:03:29,150 he has revisited the geopolitical situation of your own home in order to spare Iran from global war. 30 00:03:30,050 --> 00:03:38,450 Hassan Rouhani has chosen to apply a new strategy, what we would call a soft war, 31 00:03:39,350 --> 00:03:47,600 combining cultural influence, diplomatic offensives and peripheral proxy wars. 32 00:03:49,380 --> 00:03:53,610 Ronnie has perfectly drawn the lessons from the current wars of subversion. 33 00:03:54,270 --> 00:03:59,280 But he has gone beyond thanks to his main set imagination. 34 00:04:00,450 --> 00:04:08,190 A country wishing today to overwhelm Iran should not focus on the nuclear scientists, but on the poets. 35 00:04:09,030 --> 00:04:15,810 They are present everywhere, especially at the top, and Ronnie has been advised by political circles. 36 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:22,920 His strategy combines the sword and the world, the sword and the verb. 37 00:04:25,350 --> 00:04:31,320 So let us raise it. Three questions, three simple questions. 38 00:04:32,250 --> 00:04:36,270 What's the situation? In what situation? It is? Ronnie found Iran. 39 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:51,450 Some days after his election. What what has what have been his first steps to reverse the former situation and what are his chances of success? 40 00:04:54,340 --> 00:04:58,690 So what's the situation of Iran when it comes to power? 41 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,840 Well, Iran is the centre. 42 00:05:09,500 --> 00:05:15,470 It's the centre for for three reasons. First, it's the energetic centre. 43 00:05:16,370 --> 00:05:24,980 It's the energetic heart of the world, capable of exploiting simultaneously the oil reserves of the Caspian Sea and of the Persian Gulf. 44 00:05:27,130 --> 00:05:31,810 So obviously Iran is interesting for the world factories. 45 00:05:32,500 --> 00:05:42,610 It used to be Germany and we might be interesting to recall the the depression followed in 1940, 42, 46 00:05:43,330 --> 00:05:54,160 during which the Burma tried to seize the oilfields of the Caspian in the north and who made trying to seize the oil fields of of Iran. 47 00:05:54,820 --> 00:06:05,890 Iran swarming with German agents. So this was the case in 1942, and now the new factories is China. 48 00:06:06,940 --> 00:06:13,030 So we are in the same situation, except that the factory has changed. 49 00:06:13,630 --> 00:06:20,150 And so now we have an offensive by sea and known for. 50 00:06:20,350 --> 00:06:22,990 But but the centre is still the same. 51 00:06:24,850 --> 00:06:36,520 And we have today, as you all know, that the huge maritime and terrestrial thrust of China towards the factory, up towards the the oil reserves. 52 00:06:38,620 --> 00:06:50,560 Of course the sanctions have weakened Iran, but the sanctions have also stimulate stimulated the Iranian innovation. 53 00:06:50,860 --> 00:06:59,440 They have been bypassed. They've been bypassed by the guardians of the revolution while smuggling goods into their private harbours. 54 00:06:59,710 --> 00:07:04,180 80% of the Iranian harbours are owned by the goddess of the revolution. 55 00:07:05,770 --> 00:07:19,780 Anyway, Iran is the energy centre, but it's also more importantly, it's also the historical heart of Muslim innovation. 56 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,760 And let us not reduce innovation to mere technical improvements. 57 00:07:26,530 --> 00:07:31,420 Innovation goes some of the way in poetry, irrigated by spirituality. 58 00:07:33,140 --> 00:07:37,310 So what frightens us is not the Iranian nuclear bomb. 59 00:07:38,030 --> 00:07:41,360 What frightens us is the capacity of Iran to innovate. 60 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,730 We are frightened by poetry, and that's Iran's best asset. 61 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:54,080 In fact, that's the way in which Iran has resisted for 1000 years against foreign invasions. 62 00:07:54,800 --> 00:08:08,660 Thanks to literature. And thirdly, Iran is the centre obviously because it is the key to three main conflicts Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. 63 00:08:12,740 --> 00:08:18,620 Iran has been confined. What has been the response of Iran to confinement? 64 00:08:19,610 --> 00:08:33,590 Well, Iran has decided to. Iran has invented a new alliance with China and Russia in order to counterbalance confinement. 65 00:08:34,070 --> 00:08:41,240 Iran has moved closer to China and to Russia. This alliance is based on the Sino Iranian axis. 66 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,900 It is marked by mutual geopolitical support. 67 00:08:45,350 --> 00:08:51,140 By cooperation. By cooperation with the Russian hinterland. 68 00:08:51,620 --> 00:08:59,240 And it's also marked by a dissemination of a vision of the world which challenges our own stereotypes. 69 00:09:01,420 --> 00:09:10,930 Does Iran wish to build a new Mongol empire? You have on this map the borders of the employ of Genghis Khan in blue. 70 00:09:13,550 --> 00:09:19,580 And obviously the three countries are gathered today in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, 71 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:31,340 1.2 billion people, 26 million square kilometres, 50% of the world uranium 40% of the world coal. 72 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:39,830 Joint military exercises. Exchanges in the fields of nanotechnologies and in cyber defence. 73 00:09:42,990 --> 00:09:51,540 But this new empire and the alliance into which running has found Iran has three main weaknesses. 74 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:53,520 The first is demography. 75 00:09:54,060 --> 00:10:07,140 Iran, China and Russia are marked by a demographic decline with a simultaneous decrease in the birth rate and increase in the death rate. 76 00:10:08,130 --> 00:10:12,180 And the consequences of this demographic decline. 77 00:10:12,630 --> 00:10:19,170 With that would be a sharp decline in innovation and also that countries would 78 00:10:19,170 --> 00:10:23,460 have to increase productivity in order to make up for the manpower shortfall. 79 00:10:25,560 --> 00:10:36,180 Secondly, weakness in contrary to the 13th century, these three countries have not integrated the island off of Turkish, 80 00:10:36,300 --> 00:10:40,260 Mongol and Turkish civilisations, which once brought them together. 81 00:10:40,620 --> 00:10:45,690 They have rejected Turkey and the Turkish inheritance. 82 00:10:46,350 --> 00:10:56,009 The Chinese have problems with the ego and young the the Iranians in the north and the Russians around the Caspian Sea, 83 00:10:56,010 --> 00:11:01,620 so that they have rejected the only civilisation capable of uniting them. 84 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:08,550 Well, I think united in the past that this this this is a weakness. 85 00:11:10,660 --> 00:11:15,900 And third weakness, of course, the naval deficit. We have a we have an. 86 00:11:18,910 --> 00:11:23,560 We have the nightmare of America with a Continental Alliance. 87 00:11:25,540 --> 00:11:33,520 Good. And this explains, uh, the will of Russia, China and Iran to increase their naval potential. 88 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,570 Potential, because it's their main weakness rushing to the sea. 89 00:11:43,850 --> 00:11:51,800 That's the Russian map in which you see the new Mughal empire in under another perspective. 90 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:56,930 Uh, it's, it shows that through social networks in the world. 91 00:11:57,470 --> 00:12:08,510 Uh, so you see Facebook in blue and you see that distinctively the Russians, the Chinese and the Iranians have different social networks. 92 00:12:09,170 --> 00:12:14,330 So it's another way of looking at this reality. 93 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:30,810 Um. What's the Iranian vision of the world when Hassan Rouhani becomes president? 94 00:12:32,550 --> 00:12:43,560 Well, Iran Hassan Rouhani presents Iran as an anchor of stability in the notion of regional instabilities. 95 00:12:45,090 --> 00:12:51,990 And Rouhani identifies the United States as the main factor of structural violence. 96 00:12:54,570 --> 00:13:01,560 And I quote Rouhani Iran condemns the establishment of a monologue at the level of international relations. 97 00:13:03,180 --> 00:13:12,270 He condemns the diffusion of the propagandistic discourse, encapsulating imaginary threats such as the Iranian threat. 98 00:13:15,550 --> 00:13:23,470 So Ronnie points out an American state produced conspiracy theory Iran conspiring against the world. 99 00:13:26,470 --> 00:13:36,160 But simultaneously what's what's what's the vision of the world that the Iranians have for the Iranians? 100 00:13:37,660 --> 00:13:40,870 The United States feels that they are a declining empire. 101 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:48,310 They feel that the the economy, the factory of the world is quickly being deported to to China and India. 102 00:13:49,660 --> 00:14:01,420 And for the Iranians, the strategy of the United States is to separate the new factory of the world from the main oil and fuel tanks. 103 00:14:02,690 --> 00:14:18,620 To separate China from your own. As a consequence, for the Iranians, the United States must operate in three in three areas in the Persian Gulf. 104 00:14:19,550 --> 00:14:25,820 They must open the Persian Gulf. And this explains their strategic alliance with some Emirates. 105 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,050 The invasion of Iraq and the containment of Iran. 106 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:38,900 So opening of the Persian Gulf. That's the first move. Secondly, the Americans must prevent Russia from seizing the Caspian oil fields. 107 00:14:39,860 --> 00:14:46,130 And this explains the alliance of the United States with Turkey and the Republic of the Southern Caucasus. 108 00:14:47,030 --> 00:14:57,380 And thirdly, and most importantly, the Americans must disseminate the chaos between China and Iran for the Iranians. 109 00:14:57,860 --> 00:15:03,410 The Americans have won the war in Afghanistan not because they have been able to establish peace, 110 00:15:03,590 --> 00:15:10,550 but just the reverse, because they have been able to export the Pakistani's civil war into Afghanistan. 111 00:15:10,910 --> 00:15:16,130 They've been able to diffuse the chaos. And as a consequence, they have developed instability. 112 00:15:16,490 --> 00:15:24,650 And that's a victory for the Iranians. But for the Iranians, the United States has a problem. 113 00:15:25,130 --> 00:15:28,310 And it's the same thing for the European states. It's the debt. 114 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:34,280 And one of the problems is that the United States or Western countries could 115 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:40,670 become could become the mercenaries of their creditors of Saudi Arabia or Qatar. 116 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:51,320 They could be placed in the situation of the French Knights at the beginning of the 13th century, who would not enough money to pay the Venetians. 117 00:15:51,650 --> 00:16:03,110 And having become the indebted head to head to storm Constantinople instead of of waging war in Syria. 118 00:16:05,850 --> 00:16:12,659 And for the Iranians, the United States are clearly declining and declining and poised, 119 00:16:12,660 --> 00:16:17,670 as we know, are marked by desperate, offensive and chaotic foreign policies. 120 00:16:38,650 --> 00:16:40,570 So this was my first point. 121 00:16:40,630 --> 00:16:50,350 The situation in which Hassan Rouhani has phoned Iran, I'm now going to examine the strategy of Rouhani, the strategy of softball. 122 00:16:52,570 --> 00:17:00,550 Rouhani wishes to transform the confined island into a regional leader. 123 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,300 The press has described running as a reformer. 124 00:17:05,290 --> 00:17:17,620 But contrary to what we may think, the distinction between reformers and conservatives is not very efficient in Iran. 125 00:17:18,430 --> 00:17:28,750 The proof is that amongst the six candidates, the six candidates for the elections, five were described as conservatives by the Western press. 126 00:17:29,260 --> 00:17:35,680 So statistically speaking, mathematically, the Iranians had 83% of chances to elect a conservative. 127 00:17:37,270 --> 00:17:45,880 But we tend to forget that Iran has been haunted for centuries by a dream which is not conservative, 128 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,780 and this dream is namely the reform of the Muslim world. 129 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:59,960 And this underground dream haunts most Iranian statesmen, but it faces two obstacles. 130 00:17:59,980 --> 00:18:03,970 The Iranians are not Arab. They are not Sunni. 131 00:18:05,890 --> 00:18:08,980 Sue incapable of uniting the Muslim world. 132 00:18:09,490 --> 00:18:15,940 The Iranians are caught between two two trends either a shift towards the West, 133 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,980 the consulate consolidation of the ties with with the reopening of the relations 134 00:18:20,980 --> 00:18:26,560 with Europe and the United States or the consolidation of the ties with Asia. 135 00:18:28,030 --> 00:18:31,650 The Iranians see themselves things in themselves as Westerners. 136 00:18:31,660 --> 00:18:35,320 They believe we are their Western cousins. 137 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:44,370 But they have been forced by the sanctions to develop links with China and Russia, but also with India. 138 00:18:45,300 --> 00:18:49,680 So the question is not a debate between the conservatives and the liberals. 139 00:18:50,250 --> 00:18:54,600 The question is who is wrong between the oceans? 140 00:18:55,050 --> 00:19:02,910 Supporters of a reconciliation with the US maritime power and the judge's keenness want to tighten the links with Russia and China. 141 00:19:05,900 --> 00:19:14,390 In fact, the Iranians have chosen a third party. The Iranians wishing the return of a strong regional power. 142 00:19:15,980 --> 00:19:24,980 Hassan Rouhani embodies the Iranian ambitions. So his political aim is to transform the confined island into a regional leader. 143 00:19:25,700 --> 00:19:32,150 He has competitors at the regional level Saudi Arabia, but also Turkey and Israel. 144 00:19:33,710 --> 00:19:48,170 But in order to gain influence is Iran must transform the Israeli twin into an ally unless Israel magically adopts the attitude of a new Iran. 145 00:19:48,650 --> 00:20:01,150 And it's maybe what's happening today. The Iranians describe the strategy as of Rouhani as generally a soft war. 146 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,110 And this is soft war is also a strategy of the West. 147 00:20:08,650 --> 00:20:20,140 When the West has tried to contain Iran, thanks to financial penalties, the manipulation of medias, cyber attacks, 148 00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:35,170 the targeted elimination of adversaries, the soft war is discrete, and the number of losses due to the limited number of losses it causes. 149 00:20:36,940 --> 00:20:43,200 This covert war brings about little public opposition, and in the same time, it's a cheap war. 150 00:20:43,210 --> 00:20:47,650 It accommodates with the usual cuts in times of crises. 151 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:55,840 And this explains why soft wars multiply. Of course, this soft war has energetic aspects. 152 00:20:56,740 --> 00:21:10,690 As we know, there's a competition in the pipeline projects to get the gas of the Persian Gulf through the north or through through Syria. 153 00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:17,500 So Ronnie's looking for appeasement to loosen the sanctions. 154 00:21:18,310 --> 00:21:28,510 The first rule is to loosen the sanctions. And constructive talks were held since October with Iran. 155 00:21:28,540 --> 00:21:37,990 The discussions have been constructive. That's the that's what the Iranian thinks. 156 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,150 But that's also what the West thinks. 157 00:21:44,670 --> 00:21:51,690 So one of the questions in our discussion might be the first question could have been with what the French what was the abuse? 158 00:21:52,470 --> 00:21:57,330 What is the attitude of Fabius different and why has Fabius blocked the negotiations? 159 00:21:59,370 --> 00:22:04,080 The interpretation of the Iranians is that Fabius is making the game of Israel. 160 00:22:04,980 --> 00:22:07,440 I am not quite sure that this is true. 161 00:22:08,190 --> 00:22:22,380 The interpretation of the French is that you have successfully prevented America from from from from a reconciliation with a dangerous ally. 162 00:22:23,550 --> 00:22:27,540 I am not perfectly convinced of this argument. 163 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:36,870 We must not forget that when Obama came to power and Sarkozy simultaneously went and became president, 164 00:22:37,110 --> 00:22:42,420 there was a switch in the attitude of the United States and France towards Iran. 165 00:22:42,690 --> 00:22:55,440 France adopted a tough attitude on Iran, whereas Obama still Obama tried tried to invert its relationship with Iran. 166 00:22:57,300 --> 00:23:06,180 And the United States has exerted pressure on the French enterprises to get out of Iran, the oil companies, the car companies. 167 00:23:06,660 --> 00:23:14,250 So one of the explanations could be that Fabius is currently negotiating one part of the cage. 168 00:23:14,670 --> 00:23:22,680 And maybe mysteriously in a few weeks, Fabius will say that the Iranians and the Americans have become suddenly very wise. 169 00:23:24,810 --> 00:23:30,090 Negotiations with Iran between Iran and France have not always been easy. 170 00:23:31,860 --> 00:23:38,849 This is linked to all the different military cultures we have developed in France and in the West. 171 00:23:38,850 --> 00:23:49,950 In general culture based on inherited, inherited from the the Greek figure, the heroic warrior who is going to sacrifice his life to save his city. 172 00:23:50,700 --> 00:23:53,730 The Iranians have been invaded for 1000 years. 173 00:23:54,630 --> 00:24:06,780 As a consequence, the political elites have been castrated and they have been forced to develop very refined and very soft negotiation 174 00:24:06,780 --> 00:24:17,100 culture in order to ensure their political survival and to remain in power despite the occupation of Iran for 1000 years. 175 00:24:17,220 --> 00:24:21,540 And this has, of course, shaped their mentality. 176 00:24:24,630 --> 00:24:35,550 In the same time, we it would have been easier for us to negotiate with Iran to two centuries ago when time during 177 00:24:35,550 --> 00:24:44,550 which the the the links between France and Iran wear weight tighter because of the weight, 178 00:24:45,270 --> 00:24:48,930 because of several elements like the importance of conversation, 179 00:24:49,350 --> 00:24:56,340 the importance of the taste for illusions, the Baroque culture, but also in the Iranian culture. 180 00:24:56,580 --> 00:25:06,910 Importance of politeness of. Thought of. One of the questions today is when will these negotiations end up? 181 00:25:07,360 --> 00:25:10,240 Will it end up today, next week, in a few weeks? 182 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:18,940 I think that's a false question because we are shaped by a Roman culture according to which we negotiate, 183 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:24,670 and in the end, we sign an agreement and that becomes the law and we have to respect the law. 184 00:25:25,900 --> 00:25:37,420 This doesn't mean anything to the Iranians because it's meant something in the before the Islamic invasion. 185 00:25:38,020 --> 00:25:43,780 But today it doesn't mean anything because in Iran you negotiate before you sign the agreement 186 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:51,580 and you negotiate once you have signed the agreement till the death of the agreement. 187 00:25:51,940 --> 00:25:56,920 So the negotiations will never cease. It will never cease. 188 00:26:03,140 --> 00:26:08,840 Iran exerts pressure on three military fronts in Afghanistan, in Iraq and Syria. 189 00:26:12,290 --> 00:26:21,260 In Syria, Romney has condemned the pursuit of expansionist strategies, camouflaged behind humanitarian rhetoric. 190 00:26:23,540 --> 00:26:31,950 In fact, just as the United States Iran supports and advises the Syrian army, this building is trained in Iran. 191 00:26:32,930 --> 00:26:38,060 And these actions are likewise camouflaged under the pacifist rhetoric of Romney. 192 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:44,090 Syria is a level is a laboratory for the Iranians, a military laboratory. 193 00:26:47,950 --> 00:26:51,870 And it's important for your own to. 194 00:26:52,750 --> 00:26:57,970 It's very important for Iran to to be in Syria because. 195 00:27:02,700 --> 00:27:12,240 Because historically speaking, Iran was strong. Although the Achaemenid empire won its mustard, the nearby seas one half of the Mediterranean, 196 00:27:12,660 --> 00:27:18,360 the Persian Gulf, thanks to two two other populations of navigator. 197 00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:22,800 So geopolitically speaking, Iran has been strong when it was a naval power. 198 00:27:23,340 --> 00:27:29,520 This is why the Iranians are choosing the because this is why the nuclear fight with the Iranians is the wrong fight. 199 00:27:29,820 --> 00:27:35,400 The only good strategy for Egypt for for Iran is to become a real strong naval power. 200 00:27:40,190 --> 00:27:48,160 So Iran has not always been a besieged castle. Um. 201 00:27:54,270 --> 00:28:02,549 So after these first steps of running, after these first negotiations, regrouped, raised the thoughts of the first one. 202 00:28:02,550 --> 00:28:06,660 Third question Will you succeed and when will you succeed if it succeeds? 203 00:28:09,370 --> 00:28:24,800 There are three problems. This is a 19th century painting of Assyria as the king of Persia, crowning Estelle as humorous. 204 00:28:25,470 --> 00:28:28,550 Uh, well, there are several interpretations. 205 00:28:29,570 --> 00:28:34,160 Uh, is the wedding of Louis the 14th Amendment matter? 206 00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:37,970 No. Uh, but it's also, of course, the wedding of. 207 00:28:38,450 --> 00:28:42,830 Of Iran and Persia in order to succeed. 208 00:28:43,580 --> 00:28:48,320 Israel must not become a new year on the. 209 00:28:48,770 --> 00:28:52,070 The relations between Iran and and Israel are complex. 210 00:28:52,850 --> 00:28:56,060 But basically, is Israel and Iran behave as twins? 211 00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,810 They have a long history of cooperation. 212 00:29:00,770 --> 00:29:08,510 Let us not forget that the Jewish communities of Iran, of the eldest, the richest and the most numerous of the Middle East. 213 00:29:10,430 --> 00:29:16,190 In the same time, tensions have developed between the two countries during the last decades. 214 00:29:17,810 --> 00:29:26,570 So Rouhani is, of course, condemned the United Nations. The brutal repression of the Palestinian people in Israel. 215 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:36,320 Rouhani arouses simultaneously anxiety and fascination because behold the military and energy competition, 216 00:29:39,020 --> 00:29:49,670 Iran and competition, which has been revived by the discovery of huge oil fields in the eastern Mediterranean. 217 00:29:50,480 --> 00:30:02,450 Beyond this rivalry, Iran and Israel are to creative centres, cultivating this cultural singularity against the Arab world. 218 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:10,730 They both see themselves as a besieged island and more than a nuclear threat. 219 00:30:15,950 --> 00:30:23,480 It was discussing it a few days ago with Professor as I was visiting us in Tokyo and he was saying to me, What? 220 00:30:23,630 --> 00:30:27,860 We do not understand the Iranians very much. We never know what. 221 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:42,310 What they really think. So what Israel feels is an imaginative and unpredictable competitor able to dispute his strategic initiative. 222 00:30:44,770 --> 00:30:53,110 This uranium threat is also a good way to unite artificially a very divided Israel. 223 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,000 So I think that Israel and Iran behave as twins. 224 00:30:58,540 --> 00:31:12,800 It's either fusion or murder. But there's also a risk for Rouhani because if he's too kind in words with Israel, 225 00:31:13,250 --> 00:31:18,170 there's a risk of putsch led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. 226 00:31:18,620 --> 00:31:24,320 The risk of a coup by the Guardians of the Revolution has always existed in Iran. 227 00:31:24,830 --> 00:31:28,430 But it's it's it's it's growing, though. 228 00:31:32,610 --> 00:31:41,630 In these debates. The it was it has been very difficult for the intelligence services to to make a good analysis of the situation, 229 00:31:42,690 --> 00:31:48,810 because the intelligence services are crippled by short term analysis and by the absence of debate about Iran. 230 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:55,980 It's very difficult for them to foresee the evolutions of Iran and to foresee the next steps of running. 231 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,630 There are two main difficulties. First, they have a problem of rhythm. 232 00:32:02,310 --> 00:32:11,640 There's obviously a gap between the slow pace of the intelligence services and the acceleration prompted by the Iranian diplomacy. 233 00:32:12,660 --> 00:32:21,510 Rouhani is acting very quickly, and if we want to understand his movements, 234 00:32:21,510 --> 00:32:28,590 his movements, we must have some idea of the historical and cultural background. 235 00:32:29,250 --> 00:32:34,140 So most of the time, the intelligence services are drowned by forged informations. 236 00:32:35,370 --> 00:32:40,200 The second problem of the intelligence services is the problem of the politicisation of intelligence. 237 00:32:43,250 --> 00:32:49,430 The problem is that the notes written or corrected several times before arriving 238 00:32:49,550 --> 00:32:54,860 on the desks of the ministers and the risk is obviously self-censorship. 239 00:32:55,550 --> 00:33:03,950 The danger is that the intelligence comes to justify the choice of the politicians rather than to inform them of the risks. 240 00:33:04,310 --> 00:33:12,530 That's the very subversion of intelligence. What about time? 241 00:33:12,770 --> 00:33:17,360 What about the rhythm? The Iranians are playing with time. 242 00:33:21,380 --> 00:33:25,730 As if we have, of course, a very different conception of time. 243 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:35,570 Uh, in the West and in Rome, um, we have, we have been shaped by a Roman culture of short delays, 244 00:33:36,050 --> 00:33:42,230 accelerated by Christianity every moment chance to save, to make your own salvation. 245 00:33:42,230 --> 00:33:43,280 So you have to be quick. 246 00:33:44,210 --> 00:33:54,620 It's different in your Rome, where the elites have been have developed political inertia in order to resist against the conquerors for 1000 years. 247 00:33:55,190 --> 00:34:10,010 And it's also different because this has been also reinforced by the fact that, uh, in the Islamic world you, uh, precipitation is seen as something. 248 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:15,940 Mm. Which is not not not good is sometimes dangerous. 249 00:34:21,470 --> 00:34:26,830 It's so good to be slow. But if you are, you must be patient. 250 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:33,940 Patience is associated to Majesty. So Ronnie has to be patient is to show he's patient. 251 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:41,350 Time is playing in favour of your own because we have blocked your on. 252 00:34:42,530 --> 00:34:48,400 Iran has developed links between with you, with China, of course, and also with India. 253 00:34:49,060 --> 00:34:55,000 And he Iran is playing on the competition between Europe, between China and India. 254 00:34:57,250 --> 00:35:02,500 In a few years, America won't be able to to lead an independent policy in the Middle East. 255 00:35:04,490 --> 00:35:08,510 So the new choice, if Iran is still contained, would be India or China. 256 00:35:10,610 --> 00:35:17,300 We could have also we could have been in the Iranian alliance. 257 00:35:17,870 --> 00:35:23,870 Let us remember the Maurya dynasty, which formerly gathered India and Iran. 258 00:35:27,010 --> 00:35:33,820 So difficult the very difficult when you speak Persian plus in Hindi and they are of course very tight links between the two civilisations. 259 00:35:37,540 --> 00:35:43,809 So to conclude on this on this briefing, I would like to say that beyond the skill for this role, 260 00:35:43,810 --> 00:35:50,920 Rouhani has had the chance to write off a good moment after years of fruitful oppositions between the United States, 261 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:59,530 its maritime allies, the United Kingdom, Japan and the new Mughal empire formed by Iran, China and Russia. 262 00:36:00,310 --> 00:36:08,770 The United States have renounced an armed intervention of the three successive defeats in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. 263 00:36:10,150 --> 00:36:17,470 But the United States might have made for once the intelligent choice of dismantling the new Mughal empire with peaceful means. 264 00:36:18,910 --> 00:36:23,620 This would be costly, less costly, and more efficient than the previous policy. 265 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:29,350 They might try to revert the situation to their own benefit. 266 00:36:30,130 --> 00:36:37,570 The New Mughal Empire. No step. In order to open it, you have to touch Iran, the adductor muscle. 267 00:36:38,140 --> 00:36:45,310 And once you've cut it, the two shows. China and Russia fall apart and you can pick up the energy pill. 268 00:36:46,090 --> 00:36:52,690 And in the last months, the tensions have clearly appeared between Iran and Russia. 269 00:36:52,900 --> 00:37:04,200 Iran and China. But if the Americans bet on Iran, will they have to sacrifice Saudi Arabia and Turkey? 270 00:37:04,980 --> 00:37:09,450 Can they sacrifice a creditor to an ally? What about Israel? 271 00:37:10,310 --> 00:37:14,190 It would it would either have to follow the United States or to become a new your own. 272 00:37:16,050 --> 00:37:22,500 So if what we have seen was not an illusion, then it could be reshuffled in the Middle East. 273 00:37:23,970 --> 00:37:32,520 What is sure is that in order to to transform Iran into the new pivot of international relations, Romney will have to distribute the cards. 274 00:37:33,030 --> 00:37:39,450 He has already started in new direction. The the problem is to distinguish the true colours from the fake ones. 275 00:37:41,220 --> 00:37:49,470 But we must also consider this problem in the long run. In 2013, the United States, the Americans. 276 00:37:49,470 --> 00:37:57,690 We elect the first Latino president of the history on an isolationist, isolationist program. 277 00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:04,560 They would have become less dependent from Saudi Arabia thanks to the exploitation of their own shale gas. 278 00:38:05,310 --> 00:38:08,880 They will have withdrawn from the Middle East by that time. 279 00:38:09,270 --> 00:38:16,860 Russia unable to hold the shores of the Caspian, we have concentrated its efforts on the north eastern maritime route. 280 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:23,790 In this context, the Middle East will undergo profound changes in the north. 281 00:38:23,910 --> 00:38:33,750 Turkey will become a medium economic power. Arab states like Syria, Lebanon or Iraq will have collapsed or become failed states. 282 00:38:34,620 --> 00:38:41,730 On the east, however, Iran will surely be able to exert its long lasting influence on the region, 283 00:38:42,180 --> 00:38:45,990 thanks to a policy of balance between Turkey and India. 284 00:38:46,860 --> 00:38:52,920 As far as Israel is concerned, Iran might be its new promised land. 285 00:38:54,530 --> 00:38:55,400 Thank you very much.