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Dr. Peter Woodward is professor of politics at the University of Reading and program director of the Main Street Featured Site.

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He's a leading expert in politics and international relations in Africa, with special reference to Sudan in the Horn of Africa.

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He's been a visiting professor at the University Nichol in Durban and at the American University in Cairo.

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He is regularly consulted by the British about the U.S. State Department and also speaks frequently on the BBC World Service on World Africa issues.

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He has authored over 20 chapters and numerous articles and five books.

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Most recently, he was published in December 2012. Crisis in the World of Africa,

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and I've become intimately familiar with the 26 U.S. foreign policy the more about the past due to my dissertation this year.

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I'm here today to speak on new wars in the Horn of Africa is Dr. Woodward.

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Thank you very much. First personal apology.

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I have a bit of a chest, so the volume goes down.

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And to raise a hand at the back and remind me to speak up again.

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And also, I should have said most that introduction should be in the past tense.

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And I'd like to think I'm retired. That totally free time isn't always allowed to take over for me.

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Too many of these things come back from time to time,

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and I should say a little bit about the background of this presentation and indeed of the of the book.

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It was part of a programme on liberal approaches to war, Liberal Way of War,

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which was run by Alan CROMARTIE reading a large grant from the Leverhulme Trust and produced a variety of studies, a very eclectic bundle.

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And so this was part of it. And my bet really is concerned with the approach of liberal states to the conflicts of the Horn of Africa,

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and particularly since the end of the Cold War.

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We've seen a number of new developments in the in the discipline of politics,

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international relations, a number of which draw on events in that part of Africa.

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So I guess you've already discussed you will have quite a lot of pretty clear idea of what you think you will say about very, very clear events.

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And as you know, they involve lots of irregular forces and militias, things of that ilk, and they tend to have a heavy impact on civilian communities.

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They can involve themselves in ethnic cleansing and they tend to lack clear outcomes.

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And victories tend to struggle on from year to year, decade to decade.

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Very often they move from one form into another. As time goes on, they've given rise to Mary Kaldor, started using the term New Wars 15 years ago.

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They're not actually new you. I mean, plenty of wars of this kind around hitherto,

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but we've been so dominated by the Cold War that we tended to forget about new wars until they

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emerged as the major form of warfare around in so much of the world since the end of the Cold War.

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They're complex. I nearly always have a variety of local aspects.

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They have national dimensions. They have dimensions of international character which affect not only the wider international community,

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but in particular the states immediately surrounding them.

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So you get the growth of regionalism, which can be highly negative, as well as sometimes a positive experience.

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So new wars, there are lots of them around the Horn of Africa.

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But as I mentioned, and many of them were not really so new after all.

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And I knew I've been going there for 50 years, and they were there when I first started, and hopefully they'll be there after I'm gone.

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But there we are. And so what about this region?

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Why is it a region? In what sense is it a region? Very loosely.

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It's around centred around Ethiopia, as you can see from your your maps and its relations with the neighbouring states around it,

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its own internal political problems and the political problems in which it's become involved in neighbouring

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states and their internal problems and their involvement in Ethiopia generally on a reciprocal basis,

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often a rather negative and reciprocal basis. In 2009, after the confidential set of this part of Africa,

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the most dangerous corner of Africa is this north east horn where instability reigns and terrorism thrives on the antagonisms of its government.

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And not just about embraces all the things that I want to talk about this afternoon.

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And it is because they do have complex interconnections and they have regionalised so many of their problems over the last 50 years.

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We'll go back to the 19th century to longer than that.

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The kinds of issues that it's raised have given rise to a quite a lot of sub

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disciplinary development within politics and international relations here in Oxford.

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One of the earliest ones to take off was refugee studies and refugee studies up at Queen Elizabeth House.

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It is now largely began from connections with Africa, including a lot of strong Horn of Africa,

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as I mentioned, particularly in the late Ahmed Carey and his his work here.

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Feminist studies, too, had a big boost from if that's the right word for feminist studies.

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A big growth as a result of the famines in eastern Sahel,

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Ethiopia and Sudan in the early 1980s and 2000 others became the centre of a

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lot of studies relating to the famine that developed this whole literature.

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Of course, we've long had a literature on conflict and the horn generally popped up in one or more of the pieces about the conflict in Africa,

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or indeed often the world conflicts more broadly.

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And then, of course, we had optimistically conflict resolution that became a theme and lots of books on conflict resolution.

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And again, it popped up in various shapes and forms, one or other of the conflicts of the Horn of Africa.

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And more recently, we seem to be popping into the world of post-conflict studies, and post-conflict studies are taking off.

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And let us hope that there are many more post-conflict studies, because in the post-conflict situations it would be nice to think so.

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And anyway, that's also been a growing area.

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And I was in University Greenwich the other two ago and I saw a notice up for a conference on piracy studies and I thought,

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Oh, splendid, a new field piracy studies and very appropriate.

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It was Greenwich because it used to be the old Naval College, just just the place to have a gathering on conflict studies.

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And now the NSC cautioned all this, and they said something just simply called the Crisis States Research Centre.

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Well, you know, a much more than that. It's all in there, isn't it? Crisis States, Research Centre and whatever that means.

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It certainly encompasses parts of the horn because one of its major figures known as Oxford,

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David Keene, of course, cut his teeth on on the conflicts and.

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Sufferings of the famines of the 1980s in western Sudan and southern Sudan.

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So we can see all kinds of areas where academics have come together to look at things that are all too well illustrated from the Horn of Africa,

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as well as being incorporated into other case studies from around the world.

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Now what I'm particularly interested in today is the way in which the West and I mean essentially the West, we talk about the international community,

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but essentially the West I'm talking about loosely understood and has responded to in what it

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sees the liberal ways available to it in trying to tackle the problems of the of the horn.

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And it's been looking at those varying approaches and involvements that I want to control you and to hear your comments.

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Now, of course, the Cold War impact did very significantly on the Horn of Africa.

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And we always think of that nice, stable situation of Europe with the Iron Curtain across it and predictability

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and that the the the Cold War in the Horn of Africa was much more complex.

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Could you speak a little right. Turn up the volume taken, but keep reminding me if it slips again.

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Thank you. So the Cold War impacted very significantly, and some of you may be able to provide other examples of this.

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But at different times, the Soviet Union and the United States were allied with all of the following Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.

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They changed sides regularly through the through the Cold War, and generally not because the major powers sought to change sides,

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because what they were concerned about was trying to stabilise their positions in relation to the Red Sea and the Gulf,

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either to defend their interests or to seek to undermine their interests in the case of the Soviet Navy in that area.

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But because domestic politics basically and brought them in, check them out.

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As times changed in Egypt after Nasser, very much with the Soviet Union.

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Sadat told the Soviets to go and they did.

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In Sudan, we saw we went from the Americans to the Russians and then back to the Americans in the 19 by the late 1980s.

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And Ethiopia was the similar experience, first American and then Soviet involvement.

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And Somalia did likewise. It was involved with the Soviet Union and then later with the United States until the collapse of the Somali state.

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And all this imploded, of course, at the end of the Cold War in about 1919, 1991.

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And we see the dominoes as the rulers of the region fall, particularly Siad Barre in Somalia and Mengistu in Ethiopia.

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And it wasn't accidental.

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It all fitted into the way in which the region had been involved in international politics as it tried to resolve its own internal domestic issues,

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largely in relation to what those allies could supply supply.

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And that included, of course, supporting various conflicts that were taking place within the region in those days.

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The outcome of which was a general reduction in interest in the area after the end of the Cold War,

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when it was no longer a Soviet threat and in consequence,

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interests of the West were not so obvious as they had been when they had been the threat to the the naval channels of the Red Sea.

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So it always has to be said in a sense, partly within the context of the aftermath of the Cold War.

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It wasn't a nice, clear tabula rasa that was being shaped or not shaped as the case may be in the Horn of Africa after the end of the Cold War.

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Rather, it was what was left after the end of the Cold War across the region, including,

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amongst other things, and quite unusually in Africa, one completely new state.

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Eritrea, which hadn't been there before, which got its independence, but effectively from the time Mengistu went down.

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And then I think officially in about 1993, if I remember.

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Rightly so. These then left us with all kinds of problems famine, war, etc. ongoing.

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And what kind of response, if any, should there be from them to the victorious West in this context?

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And we've seen responses down the years under a variety of headings.

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And these headings I briefly want to run through now.

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And the first one, perhaps the most obvious one, because it happened so obviously is the use of military force.

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And it began kicked off really in Somalia in 1993 and with the response to what was essentially a humanitarian crisis,

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although there have been conspiracy theorists who tried to worsen it, I think it was a humanitarian crisis.

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And it was thought that the intervention of the UN, led by the US, would be a way of resolving this.

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The liberation of Kuwait had really gone quite easily with this great potential military force that would be used for good.

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This is an easy number and that was certainly the view in the American military when they advised and George Bush senior that it would be very doable,

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was their view. And so off they went leading the way.

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And of the 35,000 roughly deployed by the UN overall in Somalia, a number 27,000 Americans.

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So a large American presence pretty well recorded and the cameras of it were set up on the beach to film back

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to prime time American television landings taking place of the American troops and of the of the ships.

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And they entered into into it as if it were no problem at all.

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But next door in Kenya, there was a rather savvy American ambassador and very experienced journalist by the name of Smith Hampton.

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And he said, Think once, think twice, think three times before you embrace the Somali identity.

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Call this Somali. Black something or other come.

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The line I particularly like was, If you like Beirut, you'll love Mogadishu.

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And of course, that's what I soon learned, that Mogadishu was another Beirut for all kinds of very local reasons.

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And as we know, they're down to Black Hawk Down.

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Admiral, how thinking that you could just crush these small militias that seem to pop up all over the place, which, of course, you couldn't.

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And in the end, Clinton,

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having taken over this mess and being told it was going to be quite easy and out quite soon and got an experienced diplomat, Bob Oakley,

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simply to go in and negotiate with the warlords and get the American troops out,

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after which, of course, every other U.N. force was pulled out and pretty quickly as well.

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So the first military intervention.

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Not to be followed in that shape or form, possibly ever, but certainly not for a long while.

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And that, of course, Clinton was to admit, was one of the reasons why.

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LAND The following year, the genocide in Rwanda, there was so little support for significant U.N. action to prevent genocide from taking place.

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He went back to Africa at one point in his presidency and apologised for the wayward inaction in the Rwandan genocide,

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essentially as a result of the Somali experience that America was still trying to come to terms with.

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So did that mean the end of the end of the military?

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I've lost the page. I'm going to go. Oh, yes, I will.

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I'm not quite the end of the of the military. The first glimmerings began to emerge of terrorism and the terror in all of Africa,

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and especially with the attacks on the American embassies in 1998 in Tanzania and in Kenya.

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And they very nearly got away in Uganda as well. And I think intelligence would be better on that one.

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They managed to stop stopping and getting to the the Entebbe and Embassy in Uganda.

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But the realisation that there was something called terrorism was without that.

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And indeed in 2003,

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1993 for the US had put Sudan on the list of terrorist supporting countries because at that time Osama bin Laden had

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turned up there and was involving himself in the in the developments both there and across the region as far as he could.

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Military response to this? Well, in the end, it came down to missile strikes in 1998.

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The coincidence of the missile strikes on the northern border in Afghanistan narrowly missed him.

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And a missile strike on a pharmaceutical factory in Khartoum, north in Sudan, which was alleged to be connected to and to something nastier.

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But that's never been proven, um, generally regarded as a tactical error.

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The local officials in Sudan said, Well, yes, I can do this kind of thing, but you ought to aim for the President's Palace,

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not for the and for a pharmaceutical factory with no love for the president.

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There still isn't. Get your targets right.

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But anyway, that was that was the missiles. And they were kind of a we got to do something quick.

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We're not going to put your troops in. So bang, bang, bang.

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And that was pretty much the end of that in terms of that kind of usage of of missiles and bases.

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But it also brought us and capital money,

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AFRICOM and all the American military presence in Djibouti that's grown up as the central area for involvement in in the Horn of Africa area,

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much of North East Africa, which continues, but the importance of which is still open to discussion.

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We were discussing much,

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and I'm sure there are people here from the military who have far more knowledge than I do just what goes on out of the capital,

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the money and all that. And perhaps the most notable aspect of it was the decision of the US government to give military support for the first

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time since Somalia in crisis to the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006 to overthrow the Islamic Courts Union,

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which was then ruling it in Mogadishu. So that was a deployment and that involved American air support.

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And of course, what goes on in terms of covert operations, I'm no position to know, just overtly,

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this was the first time an American bombs have been loose again, and certainly since 1998, when the first time back in Somalia.

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It's been followed, as you know, by a continuing military support to the new government in Mogadishu,

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including the use of drones and all the issues that grow out of that.

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The ethical questions, the legal questions, the tactical questions, is it counterproductive?

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Is it productive? Well, it can come back and discuss that, if you like.

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I know I have no particular expertise in that area, but it clearly it is an ongoing issue now and will have to continue to be so.

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Is the support for the government in Mogadishu survives?

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Just as importantly, of course, there's been American military support to local allies and particular training programs for neighbouring countries.

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Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and others have been on in support of receipt of American training programs.

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And of course American intelligence also has quite close working relationships with the

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intelligence systems in place in those national governments and across the across the region.

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And then most recently we've had like somebody in the audience who've been involved in this on the work on the Pirates,

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in which the Navy have become involved. And this is involved not only the Americans, but Europeans and increasingly Asian navies as well.

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So we've got a splendid array of navies taking part in these activities on the whole, with a degree of success, at least at sea.

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And most of the Somali experts, of whom I'm not one, however, argue that the war on piracy, if there is such a thing, can never be won purely at sea.

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And it will come back to issues of how ground developments come on in time in in Somalia.

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And that, of course, we have yet to really start upon.

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The Mogadishu government hasn't got round to thinking about how to control its coastlines yet.

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That's a fair way of simply trying to build its own area of support in relation to the continuing threats of al-Shabab.

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Is quite sufficient, right enough of things military.

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And there are a lot of other things that go on as well. Forms of soft power of one kind or another that have been.

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Used by different outfits at different times.

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Again one could say the US led the way in this in the vein mentioned in 1983,

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putting the 1993 sorry, putting Sudan on the list of terrorist supporting states.

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It at the same time brought in American sanctions against Sudan.

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And these were followed by UN sanctions as well.

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Uh, the UN sanctions came on after the attempted assassination of Mubarak, Egypt's president, in Addis Ababa in 1996, which very nearly killed him.

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It certainly scared him and it went off and luckily didn't get driver was killed amongst others in that shootout.

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And if it had organised with organisational support from Sudan's security forces.

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It was carried out by Egyptians,

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but with the operations would not be possible without the involvement of the Sudan security and in the embassy and in a suburb.

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So as a result, you went on to the UN sanctions list as well.

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So they had widespread sanctions from the West which have gone on being in place.

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They were recently renewed. The American sanctions, I believe and are a nuisance, but really not that much more than a nuisance.

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I mean, they're a nuisance in that you can't use them for international financial routes that you would normally have.

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You have to go in with bucket loads of dollars and pay everything in cash and have no connection to any any kind of credit system.

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Or because for any company that's listed on a new stock exchange to to think of

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being involved in Sudan would be to lose their placement on the stock exchange.

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That has a big impact in that sense, very inconvenient.

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However, such has been the involvement of China and the Arab neighbours, particularly the Gulf states,

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that Sudan's economy has not gone flat on its back as a result of the sanctions and indeed thanks to the Chinese investment in particular,

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and to a lesser extent the Arabs.

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And until two or three years ago, it was one of the fastest growing economies in Africa, going along with it at 8 to 10% a year.

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From 1999, it became an oil exporter, most of the oil going to China and until two or three years ago,

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and they now run into problems about oil supplies. But that's another issue.

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And so sanctions have had a an impact, but they haven't been decisive.

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And given the attitude of and significance of the Chinese and Arab neighbours,

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there's no way they were going to be decisive in terms of significantly changing regime behaviour.

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The Chinese to get a bit embarrassed for a moment in time with the Genocide Olympics,

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which would happen to coincide with the Darfur crisis, which their allies,

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the Sudan government of course were meting out violence right,

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left and centre in in Darfur and the Chinese and got over that one and nobody boycotted in the in the Beijing Olympics.

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So important sanctions but not a decisive.

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This is how they continue to build American sanctions on the Sudan government.

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It was very hopeful that making peace in 2005 lead to the lifting of sanctions

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and they're getting all the Fed up with the way in which Americans just do this,

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just through this, just through this. And the sanctions will be off and they never are.

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There's always some reason why they they have reason to continue. And not least because the conflicts go on.

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There's also an. Appreciated.

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Understood. Particularly by.

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Lobbyists in and around Washington who are very keen to and have been for a long time to raise the issues from Sudan's conflicts in particular.

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Right. So sanctions has been a part of the kit and not a decisive part of the kit.

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Diplomatic efforts, political interventions towards conflict resolution.

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There's been an awful lot of this and around the around the area.

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And in fact, just about every country has got involved in this at one time or another.

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And lots of folk like me get drawn into this kind of thing, at least in the early stages,

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to try and advise on what seems possible and doesn't seem possible.

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The big one, I suppose, has been the Eritrean Ethiopian conflict, which began in 1998, 2000, and is still by far resolved.

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And there are still tensions. There is some hope in the aftermath and always there is.

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In Ethiopia, things may get a little easier.

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It certainly was a strong hostility between the sides and militia itself personally, which maybe made ammunition may help.

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We have yet to see signs of that.

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Meantime, there were attempts to try to end this war, one of the two largest conventional wars in Africa since World War Two.

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And Ethiopia was involved in the other one as well, which was the Somali invasion of Ethiopia in 1999, 1977, 78.

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And with Ethiopia, Eritrea, which took everyone by surprise,

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including I think the Eritreans and the Ethiopians and in 1998 was one in which it was thought that we can try and bring about agreement.

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And indeed there was an agreement in Algiers, the Algiers agreement, and but it has never been implemented.

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In particular, Ethiopia didn't like the outcome of the Algiers Agreement negotiations and Eritrea, on the other hand,

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was delighted and kept trying to push for them to the point where Eritrea has asked for

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the UN troops to be removed from the border and the border still stands there with

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dispute and to quite significant forces blowing up on either side across it and taking

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the temperature of the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea at any moment.

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And it's reflected in the kind of attitude they're striking respectively with regard to the border dispute, which goes on and on.

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Other interventions? Well, of course, Somalia has had lots of interventions at peace efforts.

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I was trying to remember at lunch time how many it is. It's either 15, 16 or 17 or something of that kind.

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And you go on to some 1991 to try and put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

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And Humpty Dumpty proved remarkably resistant to being being put back together.

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We had the most recent in so far, I have to say, one of the most successful efforts since the Ethiopian invasion in 2006.

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Bringing down the ICU. The. The Islamic Courts Union.

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But at the same time, of course, creating al-Shabab, it used to be the militia of the ICU.

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And before they were cast off by the overthrow of their political wing and.

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Now we've seen, as I mentioned earlier, that would be encouraging, particularly in the European Union, which took the lead on Somalia.

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There were efforts to get governments created and we now do have a government established in Mogadishu with a lot of open British support,

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particularly from the Prime Minister. Whether it will be able to stabilise itself is still a long way down the line.

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We can be sure that it won't be able to do so on its own.

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It will require continuing military support from the African forces that are essentially Western backed and trained on its own.

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And on the military front. It will require continuing aid of all kinds on other fronts if it's going to be successful.

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If it is, I mean, no better placed than anybody else to guess the likely outcome.

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And I think we're the first for a long time.

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And one limitation, which was I think another upsetting to Cameron and CO was that neither Somaliland nor Puntland, those two autonomous territories,

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took part in the Somali talks or however they wish to be connected to the Somali government, particularly Somaliland.

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Somaliland is probably the most democratic country in the Horn of Africa and twice change.

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Change of government at the ballot box. And the international community doesn't recognise it, largely because an African opposition.

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But it certainly got a better case to be an independent state in terms of any judgements of a state

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like South Sudan that became independent in 2011 and was accepted by the international community.

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I was mentioning the Somaliland delegation turned up wearing T-shirts saying Somaliland next the Juba independence of South Sudan.

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And they had reason to.

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I have yet to win international hearts and minds, particularly in Africa itself.

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So a variety of reasons.

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So Somalia is still very much in the balance and whether we'll see a stable government in the southern central areas of Somalia,

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whether we'll see any further integration between Somalia and Puntland and Somaliland is still a long way down the line.

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Bit more diplomacy. Well, South Sudan like a good one.

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It made peace there in 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

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And that seemed quite successful.

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And. It seemed to return the possibilities of democracy to both areas of one country, then Sudan and South Sudan.

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And that also included the right of South Sudan to choose independence.

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Should Sudan fail to implement a secular constitution?

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The government in Sudan did refuse to implement a secular constitution for all kinds of reasons.

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It stuck with its choice of an Islamic state. South Sudan overwhelmingly voted in the referendum for separation beginning in thousand and 11,

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which was to be delivered in July of that year, generally seen as an international success in terms of ending a war.

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But at the same time, it certainly wasn't the outcome the international community was hoping for.

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They had hoped there'd be a move toward national liberal democracy.

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Talk to any of the diplomats involved. Was there a Western diplomat that was there aimed to try and see the unity of Sudan retained

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and to see a power sharing develop in both South Sudan and in Sudan and more broadly,

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national governments and all that kind of thing. In the end, none of that transpired.

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It was about two armed camps who had negotiated and an outcome that they both thought they could live with.

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In 2005 and those two armed camps persist, but now is entirely separate camps and two separate states.

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And. And the state of conflict exists in both.

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And both are involved in the conflicts in a new neighbour.

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And so the usual pattern of internal and regional conflict involvement continues to present.

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And where do we go next? Oh yes,

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we had our two P popped up in particularly after Blair and his speech in Canada and we had the right to

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protect each other in international debates and discussions wasn't going to be a use of the right to protect.

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It seemed after all that I think it was very much focussed on ten years after the Rwandan

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genocide and this seemed like a new version for sovereignty and international involvement,

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the right to intervene internationally in the international community to protect

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citizens who state governments were clearly damaging to their their interests.

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Well, Darfur looked perfect for this kind of thing in terms of the obvious need.

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It was the crisis in the moment in 2004 and.

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Many thousands been killed,

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hundreds of thousands being internally displaced and sent off as refugees into neighbouring countries for the usual mix of local,

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national and regional politics. Which I haven't got time to go into now, but that that was, was there going to be an art movement?

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It soon became apparent that there clearly aren't going to be any Western boots on the ground.

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So who might do it?

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Well, the EU, the new African Union, decided this would be a good one for them because they hadn't done anything of this kind before.

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The old OAU did it once in the early 1980s in Chad, which was a disaster and gave up on that kind of thing after that.

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But we had the EU deciding to take the lead with a lot, of course, of support from the wider world.

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And it soon became clear that the African Union on its own was incapable of an operation of this kind.

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So we saw a new form, a hybrid UN African Union movement force established for peacekeeping and UNAMID, UN African mission in Darfur.

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In the I think about 2005, somewhere around there, one of the largest UN peacekeeping operations in the world.

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And it's still there. But is it doing anything?

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It's got 26,000 mostly African troops on the ground, a few Chinese engineers with the Chinese and a few along with engineers.

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But if you've been following these things, you'll know that in this year,

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the last five months have typically been a new round of fighting, 300,000 more internally displaced people.

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And clearly the UN and UNAMID can only peacekeeping when there's a keep peace to

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keep around a similar situation that's been found by the UN mission in South Sudan.

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Now I notice the the Lady Hilda Johnson, who heads the UN mission in South Sudan,

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saying last week and this can't be at least we don't think we can do the policing for you.

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Quite what they do too far from clear. And you know,

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they say we can't be the policeman with all kinds of essentially localised ethnic

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conflicts taking place in seven out of the present ten states of South Sudan.

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As we as we sit here. 402p.

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Understandable as an idea of a record. Not a great deal so far out of this this region of Africa.

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And then we had the ICC, the International Criminal Court.

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This was almost the Tweedledum and Tweedledee about who would pay and actually hold accountable.

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The rulers have been doing nasty things to their people, or indeed some of those people have been doing the nasty things.

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And and it kicked off, quite understandably and obviously in terms of propaganda with Joseph Kony the last minute in northern Uganda.

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And you've heard and you're probably aware Kony 2012 was one of the big campaigns in the United States last year.

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Well, it's 2013 now, and he's still out there and we're still arguing about who's helping and supporting him along the way.

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Maybe if things do turn out to change in eastern Congo, [INAUDIBLE] find life tougher there.

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He's always moved around from state to state in that in that region.

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And, well, we ain't got him yet.

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So when Joseph Kony was the first and still on the loose and haven't got any of the others who are clearly associated with large scale violence,

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particularly President Bashir of Sudan, and indicted over Darfur and a couple of others of his his government similarly indicted.

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And it does limit them freedom of movement, but it hasn't got hold of them.

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And it may have force, interestingly, have more impact in relation to Kenya and the Kenyan.

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Prime minister, will president, president and vice president, both of whom may have volunteered themselves for the court.

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But I suspect there'll be a lot of negotiating before they finish up in front of a of the court.

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Indeed, you are following the African Union and 50th anniversary meetings in Addis last week.

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It was general hostility all round towards the ICC, which was seen essentially as targeting Africans.

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I totally. 202i was on their list and I think looks like a more viable and believable, believable than it has been so far.

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So none of the characters the ICC has identified in relation to the broad Horn of Africa have yet turned up in May in The Hague.

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Aid and development. And all that. Well, there is a good deal of development, and development programs may often be very important and successful.

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They tend to be in areas that are not. My specialism is I don't want to comment on them and I certainly don't want to say they're all a waste of time.

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So some are better than others. But in relation to overall development across the region, I still regard the impact of the presence of the Chinese,

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in particular other Asian countries like South Korea, Japan, India especially, and the Arab Gulf states.

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I think everything every bit as important as anything that DFID, USAID or anyone else is doing in the region.

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And of course, they have rather different kinds of agendas and for the work that they're undertaking.

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But the good bit of development doesn't particularly interest me, I suppose,

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because my discipline is the good governance agenda and, and, and all that.

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And one has to say that on the whole, in relation to the good governance agenda is having many successes.

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We have a series of autocratic regimes that seem as autocratic as ever for the most part.

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I said earlier, the most and the nearest thing to a competitive system that seems to function as such is Somaliland and certainly Ethiopia.

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Since the shock of the 2005 elections was move in a less democratic or democratic direction.

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The hopes for democracy engendered in the Sudan process and peace of 2005 have not come about either in relation to Sudan or South Sudan.

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Eritrea goes on being the North Korea of Africa and on the whole, you know, these autocratic regimes are surviving.

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If there is a glimmer, it is that the Kenyan elections of 2013 are a lot better than the last elections in Kenya.

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And one has to hope that. But then Kenya has never been quite as autocratic.

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It was Kenya and all that, but in some ways it was a slightly more open system within strict constraints than some of its neighbours.

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Now it's time to move towards a conclusion. Well, first conclusions.

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No quick fixes.

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We all saw the Iraq program last Wednesday night and probably be watching it this Wednesday night and those first words uttered by Tony Blair.

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We needed really to remake the Middle East. Naivete.

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Arrogance. Combination of the two. You cannot remake regions of the world like that.

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And by sending in the troops and thinking that somehow we pop up democracies and not be colonies, just emerge from the woodwork.

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Life is much more complicated. In all these cases,

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I going to give you the historical traces that run right through the region and are much more relevant to the

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understanding of where we are in North East Africa now than anything that comes out of the textbook on good governance.

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The world is simply a lot more complicated and that a lot more historical and in character.

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I'm sure at least some of you here will attest.

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We do have all these various forms of approach that can be used, and many of them are valuable in particular circumstances.

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But you have to judge the circumstances. You have to decide when it's right to pursue one line of approach or another.

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There's no blueprint, no quick fix in any of them.

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And it's usually a combination of various approaches from a through diplomacy,

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through responsibility in various kinds, as well as perhaps help in building security within states.

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You can simply go to work out the mix. You've got to think also what you can do as opposed to what you'd like to do.

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Because the idea that we had this idea arose at the end of the Cold War.

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You can do whatever you like on it. It wasn't true then.

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It's even less true now, particularly because of the role being played by China and Asia more generally.

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And what is the continuing role of the Arab states?

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And you do have to try and work with them rather than against them in relation to any kind of hopes for a more peaceful age for for north east Africa.

389
00:45:16,940 --> 00:45:23,240
That's about. Look, in my mind, I think we have one more thing. We think before you embark on military intervention anywhere.

390
00:45:23,870 --> 00:45:29,900
Sit down and watch. Carry on up the Khyber. You probably think twice after that.