1 00:00:00,030 --> 00:00:04,430 It's my great pleasure to introduce our new change in character for Director Studies. 2 00:00:05,100 --> 00:00:17,040 So that's from a cast of millions. She was almost literally the action setting, and that is particularly impressive in so many different fields, 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:24,380 but really has connected with us in terms of looking at this problem, if that is what works of non-state actors find. 4 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:35,390 She has been a research associate at the first to try Graduate Institute for Central Conflict Development, Peace Building, Trust Fund, 5 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:41,910 custom research and personal inventories of conflict security, transnational organised crime of peacebuilding, 6 00:00:42,570 --> 00:00:45,960 and the role for violent non-state actors playing in those dynamics. 7 00:00:46,900 --> 00:00:53,240 What I think particularly interesting is not as she writes back saying this is not going to be studied, but she's actually being that done. 8 00:00:53,760 --> 00:01:00,720 She's going to act on some fieldwork in order to see further her knowledge of what should board 9 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:08,160 about this particular reference to Colombia and ongoing conflicts in that area and also the region. 10 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:13,590 She holds a master's degree in international relations with distinction Cold War studies at King's College, London. 11 00:01:14,550 --> 00:01:24,270 And you don't have a problem with assistants who are in other work, which are not referred to in terms of the UN work as well. 12 00:01:24,270 --> 00:01:27,990 But that will come, I think, through the course of our discussions anyway. 13 00:01:28,890 --> 00:01:32,250 And she is extraordinarily well published for her age. 14 00:01:33,420 --> 00:01:38,970 That's not supposed to be sexist or just simply meant to be a testament to your industry and achievement. 15 00:01:39,330 --> 00:01:42,330 Annette, thank you. 16 00:01:43,320 --> 00:01:51,270 Well, thanks, everyone, for coming this afternoon to my talk. I'm going to talk about arrangements of convenience mobile amongst directors. 17 00:01:51,990 --> 00:01:57,870 And the idea here is really to look at violent contexts that cannot be explained by only looking at conflict, 18 00:01:58,020 --> 00:02:00,900 just because there are many different actors in warfare, 19 00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:07,950 conflict actors, but also criminal actors, rebel groups on the one hand, commentaries on the other, but also drug cartels. 20 00:02:08,490 --> 00:02:12,629 And if we want to understand these conflicts, which are the case of many conflict areas, 21 00:02:12,630 --> 00:02:16,110 war zones, then we really have to know how they relate to each other. 22 00:02:16,650 --> 00:02:20,280 Now we know that these actors don't operate in isolation. 23 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:24,240 There's often cooperation among these actors, but then, on the other hand, also conflict. 24 00:02:24,870 --> 00:02:28,530 And what I find is that this is puzzling for for three main reasons. 25 00:02:29,130 --> 00:02:34,650 The first one is that we see ideologically opposed to actors that cooperate with each other. 26 00:02:34,830 --> 00:02:39,030 But then, on the other hand, also ideologically aligned actors that fight each other. 27 00:02:39,630 --> 00:02:47,910 Then the second point is that civil war scholars, like colleagues, for example, claim that these are just try for monopoly territory. 28 00:02:48,270 --> 00:02:51,450 But then often we see cases where different actors share territory. 29 00:02:51,990 --> 00:02:59,610 And then finally, if we think about the actors like the Mafia and criminal cartels, we would expect if we follow our own, 30 00:02:59,640 --> 00:03:05,400 for example, scholars like become better that they would try to reduce the costs, for example, through signalling. 31 00:03:05,670 --> 00:03:11,640 But then still, we see that these actors invest quite a lot of costly resources in fighting. 32 00:03:12,030 --> 00:03:17,040 So there are several puzzles which mean that we don't really understand how these actors interact with each other, 33 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,310 and as we went on to try and enhance that understanding, 34 00:03:20,820 --> 00:03:26,820 but then also in order to know what this means for security, what does it mean for people on the ground in conflict zones, 35 00:03:26,820 --> 00:03:35,250 in war zones, where there's presence of many, many different actors rather than just one stereotype of a rebel group versus the government, 36 00:03:35,850 --> 00:03:42,240 what this means for for people, how they perceive the security, and also how they're objectively affected by security. 37 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,600 So the idea really is to understand the relationships between these actors and 38 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:49,500 not just their presence or not just looking at one group and in isolation. 39 00:03:50,820 --> 00:03:58,590 And so the key points that I want to make today with my presentation is look at three different types of arrangements. 40 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,870 Can you actually see Russia switch off the light? Good, good, good. 41 00:04:05,350 --> 00:04:12,270 Okay. So at first, expand a bit more about the concept of arrangements, of commitments and how to conceptualise this. 42 00:04:12,780 --> 00:04:15,240 And then look at three different types of security impacts. 43 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:23,340 The first one is in the absence of an arrangement where I argue that there's violence, however, citizens can follow clear rules of behaviour. 44 00:04:23,910 --> 00:04:27,340 Then the second cluster are the short term arrangements. 45 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:32,250 These are arrangements among different by the non-state actors that change very quickly that are rather fragile. 46 00:04:32,580 --> 00:04:35,700 And here my main point is to say that, yes, there is selective violence. 47 00:04:36,210 --> 00:04:41,980 But what might have an even bigger impact on the long run is really the uncertainty that it causes among civilians. 48 00:04:41,980 --> 00:04:49,470 And I'll explain that later. And then finally, in long term arrangements, when the stable relationship between different set actors, 49 00:04:50,340 --> 00:04:54,540 this kind of leads to what I call shadow citizen security and shadow citizenship. 50 00:04:54,540 --> 00:04:59,760 And again, I'll come back to that later just so that you have the three key points right at the start. 51 00:05:01,100 --> 00:05:08,240 So I draw on the case of the Colombian borderlands for my analysis, and the reason is quite clear. 52 00:05:08,690 --> 00:05:13,160 First of all, that area, Colombia is obviously part of the America, 53 00:05:13,430 --> 00:05:19,130 which is the region with the highest homicide rates worldwide today, according to the last UNODC report. 54 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:27,560 In the unknown region in particular, Venezuela, for example, has a homicide rate of 54 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. 55 00:05:27,860 --> 00:05:31,730 Colombia is a bit over 30. Ecuador is a bit over 12. 56 00:05:31,940 --> 00:05:37,280 If we compare that to the UK, it's one. So it's high homicide rate, violent region. 57 00:05:37,820 --> 00:05:47,180 But then also in Colombia, as you know, there's a decades old armed conflict that started over 50 years ago. 58 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,240 So the country is a is a conflict zone. 59 00:05:50,930 --> 00:05:56,540 And importantly, the border areas are the areas that are particularly severely affected by that conflict. 60 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:06,890 Over the last decade, the security policies of the previous president in Colombia and President Uribe have actually made the big cities safer. 61 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:11,450 So in Bogota and Medellin, Cali, the security situation has improved. 62 00:06:11,780 --> 00:06:15,200 However, it also has pushed the conflict towards the periphery. 63 00:06:15,620 --> 00:06:25,010 So now the actors are quite concentrated and also well beyond the borderline on the Ecuadorian side in that case and on the Venezuelan side. 64 00:06:25,550 --> 00:06:29,120 And at the same time, these areas are strategic dark corridors. 65 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:34,340 There are the areas where coca is cultivated and processed or also in cocaine. 66 00:06:35,030 --> 00:06:42,680 And if you look at the Pacific Coast here and the Caribbean coast, these are the starting points of the major international trafficking routes. 67 00:06:43,130 --> 00:06:50,270 We know the US Pacific side, often via West Africa, towards Europe on the inside. 68 00:06:51,050 --> 00:06:59,580 So in a way it just sums up all the different dynamics that are attractive for better non-state actors income sources. 69 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,989 If we think about the drug trade but also other forms of organised crime and 70 00:07:02,990 --> 00:07:08,510 smuggling and also the way how they have their supplies in these border areas, 71 00:07:08,510 --> 00:07:12,650 they come from other regions, for example, ammunition and arms via Venezuela. 72 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:17,360 And then also it's it's an area of retreat for these actors. 73 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:22,730 It's the only area where they're still presence, whether of other states, is not very much present. 74 00:07:22,940 --> 00:07:27,410 So they can operate rather freely if compared to the to the more central areas. 75 00:07:28,100 --> 00:07:35,090 So this is the reason why I look at these these areas, because they represent a kind of good laboratory, 76 00:07:35,210 --> 00:07:39,860 if we say it like that, to analyse the interactions of different non-state actors. 77 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:47,030 Now, as Robert already mentioned, I've drawn quite a lot of feedback. 78 00:07:47,090 --> 00:07:53,930 I spend about a year in that area and conducted interviews and 433 interviews with different stakeholders, 79 00:07:53,930 --> 00:08:01,970 with ex-combatants, with traffickers, but also with refugees, indigenous leaders, military police officials. 80 00:08:02,690 --> 00:08:06,170 And basically what I did is this is mainly Colombia Ecuadorian border. 81 00:08:06,650 --> 00:08:14,900 So you can see that my route itinerary where I went to different villages really on the ground in order to talk to people. 82 00:08:16,190 --> 00:08:18,379 I did the same at the border with Venezuela. 83 00:08:18,380 --> 00:08:27,930 So this is the southern part and then went up to the to the most central part, Catatumbo, which is one of the hotspots of the Colombian conflict zone, 84 00:08:28,820 --> 00:08:35,510 and then also to the northern part of the Colombian Venezuelan border, where the dynamics are more shaped by local indigenous groups. 85 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:44,540 So here, for example, I stayed with the different families. So this helped me to know what's really going on, on the ground. 86 00:08:44,540 --> 00:08:51,230 And what I did is I tried to map the presence and the relationships that these different violent non-state actors have on the ground. 87 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:57,330 So what you can see on that map is each colour representing a different but a non-state actor. 88 00:08:57,350 --> 00:09:03,319 So that includes the rebel groups, the forest and the ELN, but it also includes right wing groups. 89 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:09,470 And these are smaller groups that emerged after the paramilitaries in Colombia were demobilised around 2006. 90 00:09:10,820 --> 00:09:16,729 There are groups like Les Negros and some of them were successors of the parties, 91 00:09:16,730 --> 00:09:21,650 but often there were also mergers with pre-existing drug cartels, with different groups. 92 00:09:22,310 --> 00:09:25,820 And then there also even one of the groups is the Sinaloa cartel. 93 00:09:25,820 --> 00:09:29,810 So the Mexican cartel has presence and smaller drug trafficking or criminal groups. 94 00:09:30,290 --> 00:09:35,419 And what I then can see with the numbers to try and identify how do they relate to each other, 95 00:09:35,420 --> 00:09:42,680 how how do they cooperate if they cooperate or if they're just coexisting in the same place? 96 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,850 And I did the same for the Colombian Venezuelan politics. Institute. 97 00:09:47,900 --> 00:09:53,180 And I'll just to come back why this is important not only to Colombia, but also other regions. 98 00:09:53,690 --> 00:09:57,739 As you can see here is the number of groups. And this is still relatively low. 99 00:09:57,740 --> 00:10:03,990 And these are the most important ones. But. If we think about places like DRC, there are over 50 different groups. 100 00:10:04,010 --> 00:10:08,890 If we think about places like Syria, apparently there are over 6000 different groups. 101 00:10:09,230 --> 00:10:14,030 So in other areas of the world, it gets more complex to find out how they relate to each other. 102 00:10:14,330 --> 00:10:19,730 But there definitely have some kind of relationship and do not operate in isolation. 103 00:10:20,420 --> 00:10:23,900 So it helps us to understand how how these groups operate on the ground. 104 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,620 Now, what I didn't do is in order to understand how they cooperate, 105 00:10:30,620 --> 00:10:35,480 draw on different kinds of literature, because it's not just Civil War actors, it's also other actors. 106 00:10:36,500 --> 00:10:42,710 I think we have to think about it more broadly. And what I found useful is to look at the literature on cooperation among states. 107 00:10:43,370 --> 00:10:47,090 But return cooperation. Mafias and organised criminals. 108 00:10:47,570 --> 00:10:55,100 And so in the case of the state, this is really also what's carrying this argument where we have cooperation in quasi anarchy. 109 00:10:55,640 --> 00:11:01,070 And these actors operate in some kind of quasi anarchy because there's no one institution that there was them. 110 00:11:02,030 --> 00:11:08,149 Then with regard to the Mafia. This is really useful to understand how they operate in a context of illegality, 111 00:11:08,150 --> 00:11:14,450 in a context where there's no law that imposes certain rules, which means that there's a lot of distrust between these different groups. 112 00:11:14,870 --> 00:11:15,439 So in a way, 113 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:23,660 they have to cooperate with each other and trying to reduce the distrust that exist because they're not necessarily on the same and the same line. 114 00:11:24,110 --> 00:11:26,749 And then finally looking at organised criminals, 115 00:11:26,750 --> 00:11:33,139 it really helps to understand the way in which they're drawn comparative advantages and in which they might have 116 00:11:33,140 --> 00:11:39,650 different kinds of approaches just in the way that legal businesses work in order to increase their benefits as well. 117 00:11:41,540 --> 00:11:45,859 So this leads me to a quite complex typology of arrangements. 118 00:11:45,860 --> 00:11:51,470 And here what is important over each of the three clusters in the absence of an arrangement, 119 00:11:51,830 --> 00:11:53,890 the short term arrangements and the long term arrangements. 120 00:11:53,900 --> 00:12:00,170 And that's where I cluster all the different types of arrangements that I've identified that you saw in the Met before. 121 00:12:01,070 --> 00:12:03,410 And just a bit of background on that. 122 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:11,750 These arrangements are really shaped by the mechanisms that are available to reduce distress so that they can actually cooperate with each other. 123 00:12:12,420 --> 00:12:18,920 Now, if you start here at the bottom, which is combat urban areas, it's what I call target relief. 124 00:12:19,340 --> 00:12:27,260 All the tents come this no distress reducing mechanism, which means that groups either fight each other or there's a tense calm. 125 00:12:27,260 --> 00:12:32,130 So there's not necessarily violence, but there's still no agreements of violence can break out any time. 126 00:12:32,150 --> 00:12:38,360 So if you think about it as a cycle of violence, that's just a different moment in that cycle and not necessarily where violence erupted. 127 00:12:39,470 --> 00:12:43,580 Now, the short term arrangements, they are being shaped by shared interests. 128 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:52,940 So, for example, two groups might engage in in a budget agreement where they exchange arms for drugs because they both have an interest in the deal. 129 00:12:53,270 --> 00:12:56,809 But that doesn't mean that in general trust each other. 130 00:12:56,810 --> 00:13:04,160 So there can still be high distrust. But for this specific deal, there's enough they reduce distrust sufficiently in order to cooperate. 131 00:13:04,940 --> 00:13:06,739 But it's also based on personal bonds. 132 00:13:06,740 --> 00:13:14,150 And that happens, for example, when two group leaders get along well, when two group leaders sit together and say, okay, we have a tactical alliance. 133 00:13:15,020 --> 00:13:21,530 But again, that doesn't mean that in general they would cooperate with each other and they are usually very short left and fragile. 134 00:13:21,560 --> 00:13:26,420 That can break down very quickly. That's why they're also on the short term arrangements. 135 00:13:27,170 --> 00:13:32,940 And then finally, we look at long term arrangements. They are different types of arrangements, some of them based on again, 136 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:39,320 I put it into the category, but this is really bonds with a third with a third party. 137 00:13:39,770 --> 00:13:44,060 So this comes back to if we think about states, international institutions, 138 00:13:44,420 --> 00:13:50,840 both third parties and third party sponsors that regulate the relationships between different groups. 139 00:13:51,410 --> 00:13:55,980 It can also be based on values, and that's quite obvious in the case of strategic alliances. 140 00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:01,520 So for example, when there are two rebel groups, the Island and the five, which are the major ones in Colombia right now, 141 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,389 that they would be able to cooperate with each other because they share, 142 00:14:05,390 --> 00:14:10,190 at least to some extent, similar ideology in other cases, similar religious beliefs. 143 00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:18,410 So that gives them a stronger basis to also share information and also engage in joint operations, joint activities often against the state forces. 144 00:14:19,100 --> 00:14:27,620 And then finally, power, which either means that one group really dominates over the others and achieves to separate the others, 145 00:14:27,620 --> 00:14:32,990 which makes it very stable. So this is just to give you an back on on the on the on the concept. 146 00:14:33,650 --> 00:14:40,970 And what is important here that these mechanisms, they are really based on general categories of motivation for for cooperation. 147 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:47,509 So they can apply here in this case to talk about it, non-state actors, but also in general to two social actors. 148 00:14:47,510 --> 00:14:54,470 Why would social actors cooperate with each other? Now, what does this mean for security? 149 00:14:55,190 --> 00:14:59,600 And here it's important to look at security, not only in terms of. 150 00:15:00,110 --> 00:15:06,739 Several us. So it's not only about violence, homicide rates and displacements, but it's also about the perception of security. 151 00:15:06,740 --> 00:15:12,200 And that's something that I find particularly important by drawing the feedback on there and by talking to people, 152 00:15:12,500 --> 00:15:15,330 because it shows that the impact is not always the same. 153 00:15:15,410 --> 00:15:23,750 If we look at depending on if we just measure it in terms of numbers or actually talk to people and ask them how do they feel about security. 154 00:15:24,770 --> 00:15:31,730 So in the first case, absence of an arrangement, my argument this was the key point at the beginning is that produces violence, 155 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:36,440 but it also means that civilians can achieve clear rules of behaviour. 156 00:15:36,950 --> 00:15:41,900 So what that means is that it's quite clear where the foreign fighters who's fighting against whom. 157 00:15:42,590 --> 00:15:48,680 And to give you an example, this is a quote of one of my interviews who says, 158 00:15:49,250 --> 00:15:54,410 you always have to be careful because talking openly about the paramilitaries or the guerrillas produces risks. 159 00:15:54,890 --> 00:16:01,400 It's not that we don't talk about this, but only with caution and social norms, certain norms, because we are in a conflict zone. 160 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,550 And what's interesting, this is someone from Ecuador, right, 161 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:10,549 who says that we are in a conflict zone because that's in the border area close to Colombia. 162 00:16:10,550 --> 00:16:14,660 But the conflict dynamics spill over to the to the Ecuadorian side. 163 00:16:15,110 --> 00:16:20,749 So what this reflects is that there are clear rules. The person knows that they should just not talk about it. 164 00:16:20,750 --> 00:16:30,800 And that helps maybe not to eliminate risk of insecurity, but at least to reduce certain risks in order to live in that in that particular region. 165 00:16:32,510 --> 00:16:40,570 Now, what we usually look at is really the clashes or combat between paramilitaries and rebel groups or in other it's not only non-state actors, 166 00:16:40,580 --> 00:16:44,030 also the state and rebel groups, but they are also kings, which are different. 167 00:16:44,030 --> 00:16:51,290 Rebel groups are in war with each other, and that's something that is rather neglected in the literature so far in Colombia. 168 00:16:51,290 --> 00:16:58,550 That happened in the Department of Roca, which is situated in the south east of the border with Venezuela, 169 00:16:58,850 --> 00:17:04,180 where between 2006 and 2010, the UN and the Iraq war in a in a guerrilla war. 170 00:17:04,190 --> 00:17:12,409 So they were fighting each other, although the island was supposedly supported by by the state to fight on the front. 171 00:17:12,410 --> 00:17:16,100 But it was in fact, it was a war between the two different guerrilla groups. 172 00:17:16,580 --> 00:17:23,230 And as you can see here from the from the slide, from my hope, you can see it in the back between 2000 620,000 tendencies. 173 00:17:23,750 --> 00:17:27,650 What was taking place? This is where the homicide rates went up. 174 00:17:28,100 --> 00:17:34,880 The kidnappings went up, landmine victims. So it was very clearly a very violent period in 2010. 175 00:17:35,180 --> 00:17:40,970 They had the agreement that they would not fight each other anymore here and they dropped afterwards. 176 00:17:41,930 --> 00:17:48,410 But here, what was interesting when I talk to people, yes, there was violence and that's something that they had experienced before. 177 00:17:49,140 --> 00:17:52,280 They you quite happy with the parliamentary as well. They were present there. 178 00:17:53,150 --> 00:17:59,930 But what was most disturbing was the fact that it did not make sense why these two rebel groups would fight each other. 179 00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:05,870 So previously then they knew that there were entrenched mines between the rebels and the authorities, on the other hand. 180 00:18:06,530 --> 00:18:10,240 But the rebels have historically been rather close to each other. 181 00:18:10,250 --> 00:18:19,879 Now having them fighting each other had a strong psychological impact on the population and on how to make sense of the war and how to make 182 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:28,220 up these new rules that you have to follow in order to understand what is actually going on on the ground and just to show what went on, 183 00:18:28,250 --> 00:18:33,770 what happened afterwards. So in 2010, they agreed they would not fight each other again anymore. 184 00:18:34,070 --> 00:18:40,970 And I went to Raqqa in 2012 so that the guerrilla war was over, but there was still presence of these groups. 185 00:18:41,330 --> 00:18:47,240 And this is how this president was affected in refugee camps, a conflict of the first year of the 11th. 186 00:18:47,660 --> 00:18:55,430 But since then, multinationals and multinationals out of Iraq and those who don't respect those declare themselves military objectives. 187 00:18:55,970 --> 00:19:01,490 So there was a clear demonstration of presence, but there was no threat to each other. 188 00:19:02,150 --> 00:19:07,460 However, there were new groups coming in, posted rights groups, rightwing groups that also had the presence there. 189 00:19:08,120 --> 00:19:13,849 And when I talk to people and ask, Well, how is the security situation? People were saying, well, it's it's the same as the guerrillas. 190 00:19:13,850 --> 00:19:17,450 Well, it hasn't improved. But the statistics show that it has improved. 191 00:19:17,450 --> 00:19:20,690 If you look at the Southern effects, homicide rates went down. 192 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:27,170 But the general perception was that there was still insecurity because it was not clear who was fighting on whom side, 193 00:19:27,770 --> 00:19:31,880 when might violence break out because it was this tense, calm with presence, 194 00:19:32,630 --> 00:19:38,870 but no clear indication of who's whose rules one should follow in order to to reduce insecurity. 195 00:19:41,180 --> 00:19:46,730 Now, this is the case of urban areas where I said at the beginning that that is different to rural areas. 196 00:19:47,030 --> 00:19:52,490 And in a way here the clear rules of behaviour become less clear simply because the lines are more blurred. 197 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:59,540 This is the case of Cucuta. It's a city on the Colombian Venezuelan border, which has around 800,000 inhabitants. 198 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,600 Not to be, but still. I'm sorry. An urban area. 199 00:20:04,380 --> 00:20:12,090 And it's very much shaped by the smuggling dynamics, but by dynamics also of organised crime. 200 00:20:12,570 --> 00:20:16,170 So on the one hand, this is small as we can see here, these are smugglers, 201 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:21,960 so-called Montero's just transporting goods from, from, from one side to the other side of the border. 202 00:20:22,470 --> 00:20:27,300 What you can see is gasoline tanks that are everywhere on the street. 203 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:36,299 But this is really on a smaller scale. However, it is all the strategic for for the larger truck business because it's exactly on a transit 204 00:20:36,300 --> 00:20:43,290 point for the route towards Venezuela and then which is the starting point to the to Europe. 205 00:20:44,100 --> 00:20:47,430 And on the other hand, gasoline is coming in from Colombia. 206 00:20:47,460 --> 00:20:54,540 So it's a very strategic location. And that's why there's a lot of dispute among different groups of who's controlling the area. 207 00:20:55,350 --> 00:21:01,740 Now, since it's urban, these groups do not wear uniforms as they do, for example, in rural areas. 208 00:21:02,310 --> 00:21:07,920 These groups usually are mixed with the with the civilian population, with the local people. 209 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:14,400 So it's very hard to distinguish who is actually a member of these groups, who's simply just a bystander. 210 00:21:15,060 --> 00:21:21,630 And what's happened in that area is that it used to be first FARDC stronghold, rebel stronghold. 211 00:21:22,050 --> 00:21:29,970 Then in the mid-nineties and 2000, there was a quite brutal parliamentary incursion after the demobilisation in 2006. 212 00:21:30,510 --> 00:21:34,680 There were still right wing groups first once called Aguilas Negras after that. 213 00:21:36,030 --> 00:21:43,860 And wasn't. When I was there the first time in 2011, it was when the Castros lost their monopoly on violence in the city. 214 00:21:44,100 --> 00:21:46,590 And another group, the so-called Romanus, came in. 215 00:21:47,130 --> 00:21:55,740 Now, the way they enter was not with the clashes and combat and fight, but what they did was they slowly started to kill civilians. 216 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:00,780 And the civilians were either messengers or informants of the rest of us. 217 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:07,710 So they slowly tried to eliminate these networks in order to impose their own information intelligence network in the city. 218 00:22:08,250 --> 00:22:12,629 And that meant that people would never know if people are killed because they're informants, 219 00:22:12,630 --> 00:22:17,459 because they are somehow involved or not, which created a lot of mistrust among the population. 220 00:22:17,460 --> 00:22:24,660 And it was simply not clear who's on whose side and how how one should behave in order to to reduce violence in a way. 221 00:22:27,780 --> 00:22:35,890 Now, the third moment or type of absence of arrangement is in the cycle of violence where there's no guns. 222 00:22:35,910 --> 00:22:43,080 So where there's a moment where this tense calm, where there's presence of different groups, but it's not very clear what's going on. 223 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:51,360 And this example is in Kenya, again, one of the cities which was in Colombia, but close to the Venezuelan border area. 224 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:59,040 And they I talked to local government officials. It was in April 2012, and they were telling me, well, yes, security has improved a lot. 225 00:22:59,550 --> 00:23:08,670 We've had 100 days without any homicide at all. But in the same sentence, the person was telling me, yes, in a way, which is something has to explode. 226 00:23:08,670 --> 00:23:11,420 Now, we don't we know what's going on underneath the surface. 227 00:23:11,430 --> 00:23:17,880 It's a very tense calm and but from from the statistics, it really looked like four months without any homicide at all. 228 00:23:18,450 --> 00:23:25,860 Now, shortly after I've left, these pamphlets were just in the city and here by the non-selective groups. 229 00:23:26,190 --> 00:23:32,969 They want the population that 27 people were on the list and they basically threatened social cleansing. 230 00:23:32,970 --> 00:23:38,550 So parents would have to make sure that their children or teenagers are at home after 11 p.m., 231 00:23:39,390 --> 00:23:44,560 that they would not drink alcohol, that they would refrain from doing certain things, certain things, and shortly after. 232 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,490 And so for the first three of these people were killed. 233 00:23:48,510 --> 00:23:55,890 At the same time, also in May, suddenly the different groups started attacks against the army, against police station again. 234 00:23:56,490 --> 00:24:00,330 So there was a period of tense, calm, without violence. 235 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:06,990 But people knew. And that's how the government officials told me that there was this tense calm, there was this presentiment of danger, 236 00:24:06,990 --> 00:24:10,920 that something would happen soon because they knew about the presence of these groups. 237 00:24:11,220 --> 00:24:15,210 It was just a question of time when it would break out and what exactly would happen. 238 00:24:15,810 --> 00:24:21,420 So if it's that moment in the in the cycle of violence, again, we don't see the violence however people feel it, 239 00:24:21,420 --> 00:24:27,750 and especially those who've lived there before and who've experienced the social cleansing before, they knew that something like this would come. 240 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,990 Now, the second key point wasn't on on the short term arrangements. 241 00:24:35,070 --> 00:24:41,630 And here the security impact is selective violence, but also the uncertainty and the short term arrangements. 242 00:24:41,660 --> 00:24:42,569 As I mentioned before, 243 00:24:42,570 --> 00:24:49,260 they're really fragile alliances between different groups based on the shared interests that they would want to engage in a certain business deal, 244 00:24:49,260 --> 00:24:52,650 for example, or also personal bonds between between leaders. 245 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:58,110 So, for example, they would use the same harbour in order to ship cocaine abroad. 246 00:24:58,800 --> 00:24:59,490 They would share in. 247 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:07,900 Halogens on stable operations because they know that one group has information on one specific part and the other one on another region. 248 00:25:08,230 --> 00:25:13,299 So they would share certain information, but only over a short period of time in order to have benefits, 249 00:25:13,300 --> 00:25:16,720 and then afterwards maybe just go separate ways again. 250 00:25:18,850 --> 00:25:24,820 Now, here, I would like to share this quote The armed actor damages the morality of civil society. 251 00:25:25,090 --> 00:25:31,060 This lonely beach break, the pearl, the pearl of the Pacific, the presence of a very hard and beautiful material. 252 00:25:31,570 --> 00:25:36,010 It is already scratched, almost certainly fractured, but it starts to be really fractured. 253 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:42,610 Now, this is a citizen of tomorrow, which is a harbour city at the Pacific Coast. 254 00:25:42,610 --> 00:25:46,180 And he refers with the part of the Pacific. He refers to that town. 255 00:25:46,540 --> 00:25:51,610 So he's saying that the actor is damaging the town, the society, the people, the community living in the town. 256 00:25:52,000 --> 00:26:01,569 And it becomes something fracture. And this just reflects the situation in that situation in that in the town, if you remember, 257 00:26:01,570 --> 00:26:07,630 this was the map that I showed at the beginning of time ago is situated here where there are many different colours, 258 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,520 there are many different groups and present and also different relationships. 259 00:26:11,530 --> 00:26:15,600 And if you look at that in terms of flows, rather than one of them, 260 00:26:15,610 --> 00:26:20,830 just the presence of these groups, we see that they mostly lead toward the Pacific Coast. 261 00:26:21,310 --> 00:26:28,810 So there's Coca-Cola Irrigation in the more central areas and processing, but that needs to be transported abroad, to be shipped abroad. 262 00:26:29,350 --> 00:26:37,629 So usually it's on rivers, but it was a road transport across to Macau, which is the important harbour city and that region. 263 00:26:37,630 --> 00:26:44,050 And from there it is shipped sometimes via the Galapagos Islands to Central America and then to to the US. 264 00:26:44,980 --> 00:26:49,660 So this is a very strategic point where many different groups have an interest and where many 265 00:26:49,660 --> 00:26:54,850 different groups want to have a share or to have benefits from from the illegal business. 266 00:26:55,900 --> 00:27:02,080 It also is an area that is particularly marginalised. The the poverty rates are really, really high. 267 00:27:02,470 --> 00:27:08,380 There are a lot of unemployed youth, especially young men. So there's a large supply of local groups, 268 00:27:08,590 --> 00:27:16,690 of local youth groups that then can be either subcontracted by the groups or they just form their own groups in order to engage in the business. 269 00:27:16,690 --> 00:27:22,269 And for example, say that they would assume one part of the transport of the cocaine to the next stage, 270 00:27:22,270 --> 00:27:28,600 or that they would provide intelligence on the state operations in order to make sure that the cocaine can be can be shipped abroad. 271 00:27:29,980 --> 00:27:38,440 So the strategic location, again, just to show the map of to market itself, it's made up of three different islands. 272 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:48,910 And in order to have access to the starting point, you have to get from this island of the bridge to the second one over here. 273 00:27:49,690 --> 00:27:56,260 And since there are so many different groups, each neighbourhood is controlled usually by different group or by alliances among different groups. 274 00:27:56,650 --> 00:27:57,520 So they are very, 275 00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:06,010 very micro dynamics that are happening in these urban areas with many different small gangs and groups that would control different areas. 276 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:12,100 And if someone, for example, wants to ship the cocaine from here over the bridge, 277 00:28:12,850 --> 00:28:17,770 the group might have to engage in an alliance with the one who controls the bridge and then move on. 278 00:28:18,130 --> 00:28:23,530 Now, the local population knows that, and they know, of course, that also this is often dependent on on again, 279 00:28:23,530 --> 00:28:28,120 on the person advance, on the leadership, which is very much also based on emotion. 280 00:28:28,140 --> 00:28:33,490 So one leader is betrayed by the other one. That can be a reason why why the alliance is simply broken down. 281 00:28:34,360 --> 00:28:37,270 And then that's why there's often in urban displacement. 282 00:28:37,330 --> 00:28:42,610 So people would leave their neighbourhood here, go to another neighbourhood where they might have family, 283 00:28:42,610 --> 00:28:46,540 where they might have friends because they know they are safe in the other area and it's easier 284 00:28:46,540 --> 00:28:50,799 for them than going just somewhere in a rural area where they're not skilled as farmers, 285 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:59,140 where they don't know how to start their new livelihood. Um, so it's dynamics that happen within the time, but that are not visible to the outside. 286 00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:02,590 That doesn't figure in the displacement statistics. 287 00:29:03,490 --> 00:29:08,680 The homicides are not necessarily high. There are no big massacres because it's more based on selective ones. 288 00:29:10,690 --> 00:29:15,190 And this is reflected in the dynamics on the ground, in the unpredictability of violence, 289 00:29:15,700 --> 00:29:20,380 where people don't know when something will happen because you don't know when the alliance will break down. 290 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:27,909 You don't know when if a certain neighbourhood is now controlled by the first group or if another group came in. 291 00:29:27,910 --> 00:29:32,380 So whose rules do you actually have to have to adhere to? 292 00:29:33,070 --> 00:29:38,980 So this means there's a lot of disorientation. There's uncertainty with regard to how people should behave. 293 00:29:39,370 --> 00:29:44,560 And there, again, is the presentiment of danger, which means that you never know when something might happen. 294 00:29:44,830 --> 00:29:48,480 But it's not captured in statistics. It's not in homicide rates affected. 295 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,920 It's not reflected in and displacement rates. 296 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:59,140 Now, this, again, is related also to the blurred lines or the ambiguity that exist between who's actually a member of Violent Monster. 297 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:09,100 Of these groups and citizens. And I think this is reflected quite nicely in that picture, which is a funeral procession that is into Michael. 298 00:30:09,460 --> 00:30:15,750 And I was interviewing someone at that point, and the person explained to me that you can see here this is a football team. 299 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,390 So it's quite likely that it was a young man who was killed at the time. 300 00:30:20,170 --> 00:30:25,210 This is a taxi, which is also quite common because often it's taxi drivers that are killed. 301 00:30:25,690 --> 00:30:31,330 Taxi drivers are the ones who are who are the informants, especially if it's motor taxi on motorbikes. 302 00:30:31,930 --> 00:30:35,530 They are circulating the city during the entire day. 303 00:30:35,770 --> 00:30:41,380 But this is a means of providing intelligence. They know exactly what are the movements of the city, who is coming in. 304 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,190 So obviously everyone. So when I came in, I'm not from there and someone else. 305 00:30:45,550 --> 00:30:50,920 And if other strangers come in, they suddenly they need to know who's present in the village. 306 00:30:51,130 --> 00:30:57,040 If something is changing, if there's an event taking place that usually doesn't take place and they provide the information. 307 00:30:57,670 --> 00:31:05,530 This means that they are particularly vulnerable of being killed because the other groups obviously know about the presence of these informants. 308 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:13,870 So what often happens is that civilians are used as informants, like in this case, often taxi drivers, but also as messengers. 309 00:31:14,020 --> 00:31:15,249 Even children, for example, 310 00:31:15,250 --> 00:31:22,330 children not just used to transport messages between different groups because they wouldn't be directly because they just trust each other, 311 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:29,230 or they are used to transport weapons in the school bags, even because it doesn't attract much attention. 312 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,320 And then civilians are also used as contract killers, 313 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:38,110 because there's always the need for selective violence in order to make sure that the others would 314 00:31:38,110 --> 00:31:43,060 adhere with their with the commitments or to make sure that an alliance does not break down. 315 00:31:43,660 --> 00:31:48,610 So in a way, there's not necessarily a territorial dispute because all the groups need each other, 316 00:31:49,900 --> 00:31:58,480 but there's often activity in retaliation if someone thinks that someone has provided information to the state and that's why they lost a shipment, 317 00:31:58,750 --> 00:32:02,380 that's a reason to kill the other person. Also pre-emptive killings. 318 00:32:03,340 --> 00:32:05,230 So that's why they need a lot of contract killers. 319 00:32:05,530 --> 00:32:10,990 And the way they are contracted is that people are told, okay, I give you money if you do the job for me. 320 00:32:11,500 --> 00:32:18,550 And then the person can say yes and receives the money, receives a group of friends, receive support and receive three free time. 321 00:32:19,060 --> 00:32:24,610 Or the person can say, no, I don't want to do the job and then has to flee or otherwise will be killed, him or herself. 322 00:32:25,030 --> 00:32:32,920 So in a way, it creates this environment of dependence of this group where it's very hard to get away from, 323 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,480 and which also fuels mistrust because you never know who has been contracted by 324 00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:41,860 someone else and you can't trust not even your your neighbour or close people, 325 00:32:42,340 --> 00:32:47,710 which then erodes the social fabric. People want not to try and take action together. 326 00:32:48,310 --> 00:32:52,660 People don't meet because they know that that attracts attention. 327 00:32:52,660 --> 00:32:55,750 People will see them and people don't don't trust each other. 328 00:32:58,570 --> 00:33:04,270 Now the final key point is on the long term arrangements where it's most stable and where, 329 00:33:04,690 --> 00:33:08,650 as I say, there's shadow citizen security and shadow citizenship. 330 00:33:09,250 --> 00:33:13,299 And what I really mean here is that if there's a stable relationship so for example, 331 00:33:13,300 --> 00:33:17,590 if there's a strategic alliance between different groups or even Pacific coexistence, of example, 332 00:33:17,590 --> 00:33:25,510 where different groups share the territory without necessarily sharing intelligence or when there's just one group present and dominating the area, 333 00:33:26,110 --> 00:33:28,240 this means that violence is low. 334 00:33:28,540 --> 00:33:37,630 So you wouldn't see massacres when you see displacements or high rates of violence because these actors have achieved to govern the area. 335 00:33:38,050 --> 00:33:43,500 So if you think about citizenship, not a legal concept, but citizenship really in terms of democratic theory, 336 00:33:43,950 --> 00:33:49,570 if we think about it as the relationship between the state and society as a social contract in these regions, 337 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:57,190 the non-state actors have taken over the role of the state. So violent non-state actors, especially rebel groups, provide governance functions. 338 00:33:57,190 --> 00:34:02,980 They provide services that can include infrastructure, health, security, justice. 339 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,970 And in return, the community would respect them. 340 00:34:07,180 --> 00:34:14,860 And obviously, it's often a fine line between fear and respect, but also often socially recognise them and and support them. 341 00:34:15,820 --> 00:34:23,470 And the provision of security then is the shadow citizenship security because of this relationship between the groups and the citizens. 342 00:34:24,700 --> 00:34:32,410 So this is just one example of a region where you see this this kind of shadow citizenship that is southern Colombia. 343 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,879 And here at the bottom part, you see Ecuadorians is Ecuador inside. 344 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,540 And this is more unofficial part of it, and that's in Colombia. 345 00:34:42,310 --> 00:34:45,970 This is the road infrastructure. This is the means of transportation. 346 00:34:46,510 --> 00:34:54,950 So it's a very marginalised area with little state prisons, with hardly any economic opportunities except what you can see. 347 00:34:54,950 --> 00:34:59,499 But the coca cultivation is the in the back and this is a way how these violent 348 00:34:59,500 --> 00:35:02,650 non-state actors also achieve and achieve the support of the local population. 349 00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,670 They provide economic opportunities in areas. 350 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:13,899 In Putumayo, for example, they've helped to build roads that help to build health centres and this is why people support 351 00:35:13,900 --> 00:35:18,940 them if they are in these marginalised areas and this is reflected in these calls as well. 352 00:35:18,970 --> 00:35:24,010 So the first one was a teacher saying we are in a war against the state, the state has abandoned us. 353 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:28,419 And the second one, when two neighbours have a dispute, they don't say, 354 00:35:28,420 --> 00:35:32,590 I call the police, they say I call the guerrillas or I call the paramilitaries. 355 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:34,390 This is how people threaten each other. 356 00:35:34,870 --> 00:35:42,549 So people themselves would resort to these justice mechanisms or security mechanisms rather than asking the state to help them, 357 00:35:42,550 --> 00:35:48,910 either because the state is not present or because they believe that the rebel group is more efficient in a way than the state. 358 00:35:49,390 --> 00:36:01,000 So, of course, security can be provided by undemocratic means, and it often also involves punishments with torture, for example, if theft is punished. 359 00:36:01,810 --> 00:36:05,320 But for these people, this is normalised. This is just the way things work. 360 00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:08,470 And at least there's order. That's a way how people can live together. 361 00:36:08,770 --> 00:36:14,740 And they've experienced that for a long time. So to them, this is the way their region is, is really government. 362 00:36:16,300 --> 00:36:20,090 Now, the outside perspective is something like this. 363 00:36:20,140 --> 00:36:23,950 This is, again, the area where we just saw the bridge between Ecuador and Colombia. 364 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,600 And the green areas are mass displacements. 365 00:36:27,610 --> 00:36:35,020 So this is where clashes between different armed groups have taken place and the bridge is probably around here. 366 00:36:36,130 --> 00:36:38,590 So the blank area would say, okay, there's no violence. 367 00:36:38,740 --> 00:36:44,110 Probably things are quite well, maybe there's still a poverty and not a lot of development, but things are in general quite fine. 368 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:51,250 However, these are exactly the areas where there's a lot of confinement and access restrictions. 369 00:36:51,610 --> 00:36:58,090 So what's going on in these territories is that there's no displacement because people are not allowed to leave the territory. 370 00:36:58,750 --> 00:37:02,889 These are the areas where we don't know about human rights violations because if people speak out, 371 00:37:02,890 --> 00:37:06,460 if people talk to humanitarian organisations, they are punished for doing that. 372 00:37:06,940 --> 00:37:10,720 So it's just complete silence about what's going on in these territories. 373 00:37:11,170 --> 00:37:15,100 It's not necessarily violent. That's why there's shadow citizen security. 374 00:37:15,100 --> 00:37:20,860 So the security provided by other means, but that's controlled by actors other than the state. 375 00:37:21,340 --> 00:37:26,860 In a way, this is probably quite dangerous to the state because the state is often not even aware of that, 376 00:37:27,010 --> 00:37:30,820 because we tend to look at the homicide rates, we tend to look at the mass displacements, 377 00:37:31,390 --> 00:37:33,790 but without knowing what's locally going on, on the ground, 378 00:37:34,060 --> 00:37:40,330 we don't know that these large regions of the country that are controlled by it, by other actors. 379 00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:46,030 So just to conclude, what does this all mean? 380 00:37:46,780 --> 00:37:56,020 So the first cluster, the absence of an arrangement, what is important here to note is really that there are rules of behaviour despite violence. 381 00:37:56,500 --> 00:37:59,510 So if we are. We look at the threats of violence. 382 00:37:59,510 --> 00:38:05,870 We don't know what this means to people on the ground. And sometimes they can feel relatively safe if they at least know. 383 00:38:06,290 --> 00:38:09,830 What are the mechanisms? How can they protect themselves by following certain rules? 384 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:16,850 Now, the second one in the short term, equipment arrangements with these airlines are shifting very quickly and are very fragile. 385 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:24,760 It means that perceptions of insecurity can erode the social fabric. So really this constant feeling of uncertainty, of not knowing what's going on, 386 00:38:24,770 --> 00:38:27,980 of not trusting anyone else because you don't know who's involved and who not. 387 00:38:28,910 --> 00:38:36,049 It means that people do not take collective action, that people are not trying to participate in something because they simply don't trust each other. 388 00:38:36,050 --> 00:38:39,230 And that's something that's eroding society on the long run. 389 00:38:39,830 --> 00:38:48,080 And then finally, the last point on the long term arrangements is that the illusory calmness can basically excuse security impacts. 390 00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:55,640 So we don't see violence happening in these areas. That doesn't mean that that everything is fine or that there's no presence of these armed actors. 391 00:38:55,970 --> 00:38:58,370 It can also mean that they are actually controlling the area. 392 00:38:58,370 --> 00:39:05,870 And that's why I would argue in favour of a shift from studying ungoverned spaces, the violent ones, 393 00:39:05,870 --> 00:39:10,210 the ones where we have the clashes and different groups and massacres to also studying 394 00:39:10,250 --> 00:39:14,600 illicitly governed spaces which are less visible and which we can't capture in numbers, 395 00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:19,820 but where they actually have to go on the ground, talk to people in order to understand what's what's actually going on. 396 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,040 Now, the relevance here is really on two levels. 397 00:39:24,050 --> 00:39:33,590 So first, obviously for Colombia, and I think that's something where I hope that tomorrow the troposphere or the Blavatnik school will 398 00:39:33,590 --> 00:39:39,140 address or should address because it's key to decide the post-conflict security policies in Colombia. 399 00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,620 There are currently peace negotiations between the government and the major rebel group, the Frog. 400 00:39:44,070 --> 00:39:48,590 And what we need to understand is that these different arrangements, 401 00:39:48,590 --> 00:39:54,950 these different relationships between actors, they are quite likely to represent, even if the fact demobilise. 402 00:39:55,220 --> 00:39:57,350 So even if one of these groups drop out, 403 00:39:57,890 --> 00:40:04,250 it means that there are still different kinds of relationship with other groups or with new groups that emerge that simply are reshuffling. 404 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:10,250 And something that happened, for example, over the course of my feeling was that when I started, there were no peace negotiations. 405 00:40:11,150 --> 00:40:16,880 So in a way, it was mostly about the absence, the first cluster and the second cluster. 406 00:40:17,300 --> 00:40:20,750 Then around the in the in the middle of my of my fieldwork, 407 00:40:21,050 --> 00:40:27,440 the peace negotiations started and the fact became actually stronger because they had to show strength also in the negotiations. 408 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,850 And then suddenly in areas like Tomoko, where when I was there, it was very fragile. 409 00:40:32,180 --> 00:40:35,630 They had gained more control and it became more stable relationships. 410 00:40:35,930 --> 00:40:39,380 Now, what can happen after the demoralisation is that there's a reshuffling again, 411 00:40:39,740 --> 00:40:45,800 that maybe it will drop again from the more stable relationships into the unstable relationships to fragile arrangements, 412 00:40:46,220 --> 00:40:51,590 which means that violence might increase. But that does not necessarily mean that there's more presence of these groups. 413 00:40:51,590 --> 00:40:59,120 So we have to understand how these relationships work in order to then address them and to see where are the entry points in order to address them. 414 00:40:59,900 --> 00:41:04,340 And now generally for the world, I think this is really important. 415 00:41:04,490 --> 00:41:10,100 If we look at other groups like Boko Haram, ISIS, Hamas, Al Shabab, 416 00:41:11,060 --> 00:41:16,460 because it means that in regions where we don't see a lot of violence, where these actors have been present before, 417 00:41:16,940 --> 00:41:24,170 it's likely that they just have settled into a stable relationship with another actor that they have achieved to govern a certain area, 418 00:41:24,500 --> 00:41:31,010 but not necessarily that they're not present anymore. Or in another area, we don't see massacres or we don't see mass displacement. 419 00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,820 That might mean that now there are fragile alliances between different groups, 420 00:41:35,060 --> 00:41:39,620 that they're kind of cooperating in certain business deals and organised crime, 421 00:41:39,620 --> 00:41:43,700 not necessarily drafting also on human smuggling and other forms of organised crime. 422 00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:49,579 And that's why there is more selective violence which then has an impact on the local population in terms of uncertainty, 423 00:41:49,580 --> 00:41:55,730 in terms of the social fabric, which is important to strengthen the society and to address these problems. 424 00:41:56,360 --> 00:42:00,530 So it's essential to understand the security impacts of these violent non-state actor 425 00:42:00,530 --> 00:42:05,450 relationships and not only their presence both in Colombia and also in other conflict settings. 426 00:42:05,870 --> 00:42:06,120 Thank.