1 00:00:00,210 --> 00:00:05,700 Thank you very much for having me. I'm sorry that I wasn't here to hear your talk and to be here for the other 2 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:09,930 discussions have been here this term and it won't happen in other countries. 3 00:00:10,380 --> 00:00:14,850 Some personal matters came up. It had to be resolved before I could come. 4 00:00:16,230 --> 00:00:18,750 Of course. Delighted to talk to you about this topic. 5 00:00:20,190 --> 00:00:27,510 I come from a tradition which is very simple to describe and tough minded, empirical, thoughtful science. 6 00:00:28,020 --> 00:00:37,200 And in five year retirement, I decided it was time for me to deal with an important part of an ethical issue that one should be concerned with. 7 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:45,060 And perhaps I could add some noise through coming out of the kind of background I come from now. 8 00:00:45,870 --> 00:00:54,629 This August will be the 20th year since the famous book by Rachel MADDOW was published 9 00:00:54,630 --> 00:01:01,380 for the United Nations on something had to be done about children and armed conflict, 10 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:09,270 and her writing had a tremendous impact on how the United Nations has acted. 11 00:01:09,900 --> 00:01:16,889 And we're going to look over some grand data about this topic. 12 00:01:16,890 --> 00:01:25,440 And I look at some general issues concerned with how to resolve the problem of children in armed conflict. 13 00:01:27,300 --> 00:01:31,560 Obviously using quite a bit of numbers that I'll be putting up on the board. 14 00:01:32,490 --> 00:01:34,320 It's all fairly preliminary, 15 00:01:34,890 --> 00:01:44,280 but I think I might as well make the justification right off the top that nations who spend literally millions and billions of dollars developing, 16 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:52,050 for example, the Human Development Index. But they don't have any security on military security issues, 17 00:01:52,500 --> 00:02:00,300 and they'll be having to therefore do some initial work in that field and hopefully can convince people to do a much better job. 18 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:15,770 The point that I want to begin with is how the situation is today in terms of children in armed conflict, in terms of the numbers of people involved. 19 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,760 And I'll be continuing to develop these numbers throughout the time. 20 00:02:21,470 --> 00:02:31,820 If you listen to there are between a quarter million to a half a million children involved in armed conflict around the world today. 21 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:38,180 And that means they are acting as child soldiers. We're not talking about the other issues related to children. 22 00:02:38,510 --> 00:02:42,800 Are they killed in warfare, hospitals destroy those kind of things. 23 00:02:42,830 --> 00:02:45,530 I will discuss what we're talking about. 24 00:02:45,980 --> 00:02:54,770 At least a quarter million children are actually employed around the world in some kind of military force or other. 25 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,910 Of course, there are various other ways to go at these numbers. 26 00:02:59,390 --> 00:03:02,990 There is at least 20 million children by children right now. 27 00:03:02,990 --> 00:03:06,410 I mean under 18. But I'll come back to the definitions later. 28 00:03:06,830 --> 00:03:12,770 There are only 20 million children who no longer can stay in their own homes, 29 00:03:13,340 --> 00:03:21,920 who have been sent all through out of their homes and into other parts of the country or into refugee camps in some other countries. 30 00:03:22,310 --> 00:03:31,820 But at least at the start of this talk, I'm only talking about the 300,000 people that are directly involved in working for either 31 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:39,920 government armed forces or for other armed groups or violent armed groups within the country. 32 00:03:40,670 --> 00:03:45,920 Now, the first most number biggest for me is that there are seven countries in the world. 33 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:54,310 By the way, the map you have is a consolidated map. When I'm done with the story before the map will make more sense for. 34 00:03:54,650 --> 00:04:03,620 Right now, there are seven governments that actually continue to employ children under 18 in is armed forces. 35 00:04:04,130 --> 00:04:09,740 It's also true that both countries also have some armed groups against them in their countries. 36 00:04:10,220 --> 00:04:15,590 So if we want to think in terms of what those countries are, you can see that although as someone said, 37 00:04:15,590 --> 00:04:20,460 it's only black Africa, it's not just black Africa, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Yemen. 38 00:04:21,020 --> 00:04:22,800 And then the standard one, Sudan. 39 00:04:22,820 --> 00:04:32,420 So Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo continue to have soldiers that are under 18 and often under 15 years of age. 40 00:04:33,740 --> 00:04:44,180 There also are 14 countries that have soldiers in their armed rebellion groupings, but those include the seven countries already mentioned. 41 00:04:44,570 --> 00:04:48,590 But and I maybe can put the picture up easier for you to see what happens here. 42 00:04:50,990 --> 00:05:00,230 All this modern stuff, of course, is there are the countries that have children, rebel groups of children and soldiers. 43 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,920 And of course, we're seeing now that it's not clearly a black African issue. 44 00:05:04,280 --> 00:05:08,840 Of course, we have the war in the Philippines, in Myanmar and so on. 45 00:05:09,380 --> 00:05:18,230 And if you add them all together, the United Nations calculates that there are at least 55 what they call situations that is, 46 00:05:18,740 --> 00:05:29,090 places or groups that together both or one of the partners uses armed forces or 55 different groups of them. 47 00:05:29,090 --> 00:05:33,170 And you can find out this with a detail. I haven't looked at it, 48 00:05:33,590 --> 00:05:38,629 but of course it is published by the United Nations and comes out of the fact that 49 00:05:38,630 --> 00:05:43,850 figures from the secretary general of the United Nations every year in the springtime, 50 00:05:44,750 --> 00:05:53,150 these groupings illustrate that the number of countries is profound. 51 00:05:53,540 --> 00:05:59,450 And when we go to another slide in this one, of course, will show you how confusing this stuff can be. 52 00:06:01,950 --> 00:06:05,660 Let's see if we can't go higher. You're never straight here. 53 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:19,890 Because there are countries that also have children in conflict who are neither government nor are the armed groups against the government, 54 00:06:20,130 --> 00:06:27,570 nor are they just armed groups inside the country. There's another group of countries which the secretary general is not sure where to put them. 55 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:38,070 We know that they do have soldiers in some groups within the countries, but the Security Council has not had to deal with this quite yet. 56 00:06:38,070 --> 00:06:42,959 We don't know each other quite well enough is the right word in the right strength of 57 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:49,670 character to say that these places should have to do something about their children. 58 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:55,680 They are a little bit afraid to take on countries like India and these kinds of issues, 59 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:59,700 even though they've managed to put it onto the longest list of all. 60 00:07:00,870 --> 00:07:06,720 Now I'm going to go on to talk about this, but I want to make sure that you all know where I come from. 61 00:07:06,810 --> 00:07:12,340 As I said this, I am not an expert in the case studies like that. 62 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:19,439 My brother's a member of this group. But for a number of children running this organisation who's a specialist in combination, 63 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:32,429 not an expert like you or I've just finished reading a book on Sierra Leone by a professor who studies pelican in King and he knows much more. 64 00:07:32,430 --> 00:07:36,180 Well, if you're a mom than I've ever been, Laura, or in her case, the first case. 65 00:07:36,810 --> 00:07:38,940 She's an expert in social processes. 66 00:07:39,420 --> 00:07:49,560 In the second case, he's an expert in psychological variables and how they might explain the kinds of action that people undertake in these countries. 67 00:07:50,100 --> 00:07:53,489 But this is not the kind of work that I am going to do. 68 00:07:53,490 --> 00:07:57,780 And I think we'd be better to say my work this close to the machinery of government 69 00:07:57,780 --> 00:08:03,240 kind of work than the study of individual countries and their social structures. 70 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:08,340 Now I want to make another general point before I start, 71 00:08:08,730 --> 00:08:19,740 is that much of the literature of this field comes from the work of the Economist School of Public and Social Development inside of countries. 72 00:08:20,430 --> 00:08:30,150 And the reason that that matters is because much of teaching in universities is and about the United Nations is related to economic variables. 73 00:08:30,540 --> 00:08:32,370 Is the human development index, 74 00:08:32,910 --> 00:08:42,479 is index in news and employers and should be rated for many of the people that have low human development in terms of the index 75 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:51,240 and so on and are literally I wouldn't say thousand hundreds of studies commissioned by the United Nations in this kind of field, 76 00:08:51,570 --> 00:09:01,650 and then none, generally speaking, in the field of security where everything becomes a study of case studies or a case studies of international law. 77 00:09:02,700 --> 00:09:06,810 We know that this is not a good argument. If you've read the book, the whole effect, 78 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:13,320 which I highly recommend you focus on fact argues that we can't really do economic 79 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:17,700 development without women security in the country do security of public and economic 80 00:09:17,700 --> 00:09:23,669 development that for too long the discipline has been divided into approaches to 81 00:09:23,670 --> 00:09:29,190 the discipline and rather than bringing the two together as needs to be done. 82 00:09:29,580 --> 00:09:31,710 Of course I belong to that school already. 83 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:41,310 In my short time that I begun this project, the interconnectedness of the variables, both the moral and empirical variables. 84 00:09:41,820 --> 00:09:47,490 The conflicting interests make it almost impossible to understand this whole subject. 85 00:09:48,270 --> 00:09:54,630 What's happening is people are fragmenting themselves in the country studies or one peacekeeping group studies, 86 00:09:55,110 --> 00:10:01,919 rather than understanding the totality of what the economists do when they talk about things like human 87 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:07,110 development indicators and how they can explain how money should be used within the United Nations. 88 00:10:08,650 --> 00:10:14,460 And so I do not come from that school, and I won't be able to enlighten you about it. 89 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:22,830 And I was hoping that at least one of you would be an expert on the these each of these countries, the perfect world. 90 00:10:23,550 --> 00:10:30,960 I would get together with people who are experts in this country in order to use the kind of work that I do to apply to these countries. 91 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:42,150 Now, one way to proceed to do this, as I said, is to try to examine the data of all the countries. 92 00:10:42,930 --> 00:10:46,680 And what I'm going to put up on the board now is going to do perhaps for you. 93 00:10:47,340 --> 00:10:54,150 And I have no objection at all if my my daughter teaches international security as a young person in the family. 94 00:10:54,480 --> 00:11:01,350 We've got a couple of grandchildren coming, you know, why not the heat of the storm and the feet, of course, 95 00:11:01,350 --> 00:11:07,200 immediately to get through everything or bother them, because one of the data really proved well. 96 00:11:09,770 --> 00:11:17,059 Think of it as the first effort of women or an effort to see what happens when you begin to 97 00:11:17,060 --> 00:11:24,410 look at all the huge variables that are involved in the study of data and these groupings. 98 00:11:24,410 --> 00:11:28,280 And I'll come back to other ways. You've thought about the topic in a minute, 99 00:11:28,550 --> 00:11:36,230 but I want to make sure this third nature of the third approach is just a list of the parties, and we come back to them. 100 00:11:37,940 --> 00:11:43,800 It's key to this one. But it seems a bit out of order. 101 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:49,980 I suppose it is. Am I going the wrong way around? Let's get to the data. 102 00:11:54,770 --> 00:12:02,900 Here. Now in order to determine whether there will be child soldiers. 103 00:12:03,110 --> 00:12:07,400 Not where they are today. And what to do about that before they even arrive. 104 00:12:07,970 --> 00:12:14,300 We have to do some kind of weak predictive kind of studies. 105 00:12:15,110 --> 00:12:21,040 This is a huge effort to do this for all countries in the world are listed on the UN. 106 00:12:21,050 --> 00:12:30,770 Those are listed on the left hand side. Then what I've done is taken all the major indices that are used in international relations. 107 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:36,200 So human development index, GDP per capita. 108 00:12:37,770 --> 00:12:46,800 Poverty Index, the human development index, equal freedom indexes, fragile state indexes. 109 00:12:47,070 --> 00:12:51,870 Because what's it now? This may be for you not don't take on my daughter's mistake and. 110 00:12:52,950 --> 00:12:59,280 None of the other ones pertaining to honour. It is only when you add them all together for dual name countries. 111 00:12:59,550 --> 00:13:04,910 Their economic development, whether they are free within that country, whether they have other problems. 112 00:13:05,140 --> 00:13:12,930 And as an all together, you get a score that actually will predict through to the countries that have this kind of global violence. 113 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,229 And we know I told already from the book lawyers, in fact, 114 00:13:16,230 --> 00:13:21,930 there's a lot of theoretical work coming up now about how development and security should be linked together. 115 00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:28,409 Look what happens here and it's likely to go with May. Although remember now women are at least come up with a better design. 116 00:13:28,410 --> 00:13:32,370 Give me a better way to do this. Do not today. Send me a note telling me how you would do it. 117 00:13:33,390 --> 00:13:38,760 But of course Monaco and Nauru in some regard totally irrelevant. 118 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,770 There's not enough data there. It's that not enough data to predict growth. 119 00:13:44,820 --> 00:13:49,350 But look what happened to work in that country that when you add all the scores together, 120 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,580 I don't think you want me to go through how this is done, but I'll send it to if you'd like. 121 00:13:54,060 --> 00:13:59,940 It ends up that the country with the worst set of variables so ends up being Somalia. 122 00:14:00,330 --> 00:14:07,410 And what does it have? It has no role with borders, and it has rebel jobs out in the countryside. 123 00:14:08,010 --> 00:14:11,150 In other words, it has the highest concentration of power. 124 00:14:12,810 --> 00:14:16,530 The next country, of course, doesn't fit at all because everything is kept secret there. 125 00:14:16,830 --> 00:14:23,760 So it's going to screw up the balance in one way or another. But what happens over the Central African Republic? 126 00:14:23,810 --> 00:14:28,560 Let me just use the example. It's 25th worst country in terms of corruption. 127 00:14:29,220 --> 00:14:34,500 It's the third most fragile state. It has the lowest GDP per capita. 128 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:40,020 It has the second worst in terms of human development. Is worst in terms of freedom. 129 00:14:40,260 --> 00:14:44,290 It's the worst grouping and it is the third time in terms of economic freedom. 130 00:14:44,290 --> 00:14:53,490 And guess what? It ends up the sixth. Already were predicting two countries that will have the possibility of having child soldiers. 131 00:14:53,850 --> 00:14:59,220 Now, of course, I cheated because what I should be doing to you is that you have had the blank table up here, 132 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,000 and then you should have said, well, you know, they've got Trump or they don't have. 133 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:08,910 And of course, India you'll see what I've got actually is the correlation or by the colour of the map. 134 00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:14,520 So all the countries that have orange have both government and rebel soldiers. 135 00:15:14,970 --> 00:15:21,510 All the countries that are just yellow have opposition forces, a violent, non-state actors. 136 00:15:21,930 --> 00:15:27,270 And the wounds of the ones that. Well, there's some debate about the Security Council, not about what happens. 137 00:15:27,900 --> 00:15:32,220 We're predicting almost every one of them. Let's move down here and see what happens now. 138 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:39,540 I'll be darned as the indicators get better. The number of them having child soldiers decreases. 139 00:15:39,540 --> 00:15:43,500 Right. And what should happen? They're fading right now. 140 00:15:43,620 --> 00:15:49,020 I'll be damned. And what's the last one? That is why I really wish in that was her. 141 00:15:49,350 --> 00:15:56,729 Because she was going to be my old player. She was going to look at this data and he was going to say, that is not you know, she said it doesn't work, 142 00:15:56,730 --> 00:16:02,520 Bob, because Colombia's relatively well-off compared to the others, but they do have problems. 143 00:16:04,530 --> 00:16:12,680 She would have forgotten to tell you that this past week. But they have negotiated a treaty, Security Council in Colombia. 144 00:16:13,410 --> 00:16:17,870 In effect, the day the pilot predicted something will happen, the future violence. 145 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,769 But one could make the argument that, in fact, 146 00:16:20,770 --> 00:16:30,589 this data predicted so well that we actually knew what country was going to get rid of children with arm arms and were acting against the government. 147 00:16:30,590 --> 00:16:30,950 Then. 148 00:16:30,950 --> 00:16:41,210 In fact, we have had in the past week an agreement between the park and the government and United Nations on getting rid of children armed conflict. 149 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,079 I wonder to see that, because you can see that we if we go on through it, 150 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:51,050 you'll see that there are three countries will never say none of them, that once you get a better index so you can see what happened, 151 00:16:51,350 --> 00:17:00,499 the lower your score or your score on my index by how much higher the probability is that you'll end up with children are either from 152 00:17:00,500 --> 00:17:07,640 the government or from the rebels who in fact are getting some data here that's looking about as good as you get in social sciences. 153 00:17:08,090 --> 00:17:12,620 And with a little respect to our economists to do other kind of work in the United Nations, 154 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:16,940 I think we're making better predictions than there are just on that data alone. 155 00:17:17,930 --> 00:17:28,520 Now, what's causing all this? Why is this such a easy set of variables to understand and to start to figure out what's going on in the world? 156 00:17:30,380 --> 00:17:34,490 Let me I think we have to be careful doing this. 157 00:17:35,510 --> 00:17:39,530 First of all, you'd have to start with what are the big global variables affecting the world? 158 00:17:40,010 --> 00:17:44,180 I'm going to skip that for now, but I would like you quickly to see this. 159 00:17:45,110 --> 00:17:50,270 That is the nature of the world has been changing, changing and changing. 160 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:58,100 And the literature of international relations and certainly of governments taking over and events departments have not been keeping up my opinion. 161 00:17:58,550 --> 00:18:04,220 Just take a look at this. This is my effort to typologies the old world and the new world. 162 00:18:04,730 --> 00:18:08,120 We still have state based territory, borders and resources. 163 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:15,170 I know we've got the left wingers who say, in fact, all countries, all over the states have in fact, a remain in place. 164 00:18:15,620 --> 00:18:23,630 But we have tremendous drive now of failed states, state of state and people ruthless inside and around state, 165 00:18:24,500 --> 00:18:27,200 where the state based territory borders and resources. 166 00:18:27,710 --> 00:18:33,710 Now we have identity based interests, ideological and the evil nation, that mystery, religion, global growth, 167 00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:40,970 all these kinds of other things that are crossing between states, states and no very easy way to see it. 168 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:45,260 State building of the police have always been have a hierarchical structure of one kind or another. 169 00:18:45,590 --> 00:18:50,840 But today we have many more movements networked rebels, individual, and we have kind of flat structure. 170 00:18:51,830 --> 00:18:56,050 The security dilemma everybody is ever taught. International relations begins heritage. 171 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:01,010 But then this country increases in security. It decreases other countries security. 172 00:19:01,340 --> 00:19:07,760 And the security dilemma was, in fact, very much involved in ill let's call it 911. 173 00:19:08,090 --> 00:19:14,390 Nobody after 9/11 dealt with the security dilemma, and ubiquitous insecurity is come as much more. 174 00:19:15,050 --> 00:19:20,390 But of course, we're always going back to asymmetric, symmetrical warfare, civil war, terrorism. 175 00:19:21,890 --> 00:19:23,240 Of course, until very recently, 176 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:31,100 most criminality was the inside of states and criminality with state based now and much more international crime and drugs, etc. 177 00:19:31,670 --> 00:19:38,300 I technology was the problem before, but now we have both I and will technology before minimising collateral damage. 178 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,950 Now we have macro. I think the damage is the total difference in the psychology. 179 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:51,770 Let's say with the Geneva Conventions, where are you trying to minimise the the collateral damage when people say, well, 180 00:19:52,100 --> 00:20:02,329 who gives a damn about them was just bomb or I have to fight terrorism, set off a bomb in downtown Cairo and kill many people. 181 00:20:02,330 --> 00:20:07,340 You're changing to a totally different notion of what is the world consists of. 182 00:20:07,790 --> 00:20:14,360 Before we're talking about countries having victories of defeat, then a revival of religious differences, normal global fanaticism. 183 00:20:14,990 --> 00:20:15,800 Before we said no, 184 00:20:16,010 --> 00:20:22,010 the weapons of mass destruction and some people even started to think now it would be acceptable to have weapons of mass destruction. 185 00:20:22,310 --> 00:20:28,820 I'm sure nobody in this room does. But still, the idea is more problem than it was just very recently. 186 00:20:31,970 --> 00:20:39,470 This, of course, leads to a whole bunch of new transnational threats, which I'm not going to discuss today because of the concentration on children. 187 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,000 But is the changing nature of security affecting the way we have to think about children? 188 00:20:44,750 --> 00:20:50,330 And of course, we know that terrorism is on the rise. Counterterrorism has been involved with diversity of armed actors. 189 00:20:51,260 --> 00:20:56,570 Organised crime and asset wars are now more problem. They were children are now seen as weapons of war. 190 00:20:56,990 --> 00:21:04,370 There's the proliferation of small light arms. The effect of cluster munitions of landmines is involved with children as much as adults. 191 00:21:05,750 --> 00:21:08,800 Just quickly going. Using. One of them as an example. 192 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:19,870 A AK 47 is light enough today, and that used to be the only grown mature man, not male to small group, still carrying an AK 47 round. 193 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:29,440 But now a child of ten years old, ten years of age, can strip the weapon, hold it and shoot people. 194 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,260 And you could very well be in trouble with all the difference of life. 195 00:21:33,670 --> 00:21:40,060 And this is true of not only this particular weapon, which I'm using example, but many other kinds of weapons as well. 196 00:21:41,350 --> 00:21:46,770 Children are smaller things are more things that have been your workers, companions and intelligence operation. 197 00:21:46,770 --> 00:21:50,260 They can be of all of them. Of course, this is not my kind of study for today, 198 00:21:50,470 --> 00:21:57,400 although I would tell you that the Security Council have now added to the special representative on children, 199 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:07,570 and we have now added a women and conflict, a women and exploitation new assistant to the secretary general as of a couple of months. 200 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:13,479 Revenge, suicide, terrorism. No more. Thorgan is very much on the rise and so on. 201 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:14,980 I think you've got the big picture. 202 00:22:15,340 --> 00:22:26,290 One can go from the changing variable about the world we live in to what is happening in terms of children now grave violations. 203 00:22:28,270 --> 00:22:34,960 From a United Nations point of view, there are six grave violations in this park. 204 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:43,180 And in most of the research and most of the writing and actually most of the work done by the United Nations, only one ends up being covered. 205 00:22:43,660 --> 00:22:51,690 This is the recruitment or use of child soldiers. Can't talk much about how to stop killing children in Syria. 206 00:22:53,100 --> 00:22:56,880 It's not that we don't want to do that. Is that how do you get it in advance of it? 207 00:22:58,410 --> 00:23:05,790 If you think of the International Treaty on Children and the protocol, 208 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:16,260 which tells you ages or when children can be in a military or be in a known government, terrorist movement or violent grouping. 209 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,310 Basically the rule of the fold is likely to be something like that for a long time. 210 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,320 Let's make sure we get it right on in terms of compulsory recruitment. 211 00:23:25,380 --> 00:23:31,950 They have to be 18 and above, but if they're volunteers, they can be between 16 and 18. 212 00:23:32,820 --> 00:23:36,690 The reason the data is skewed therefore, and people never quite get the message. 213 00:23:36,780 --> 00:23:41,400 I did not for a long time. Is that the ages 15 to 18? 214 00:23:41,970 --> 00:23:53,340 You're not supposed to put the children into armed conflict. So the American military, for example, criticises the age 18 and does admit people in 17. 215 00:23:53,670 --> 00:24:00,870 And I think that the British the military does well, but they're not supposed to be put in harm's way. 216 00:24:01,290 --> 00:24:08,100 So the recruitment and actual use of them in conflict and I think that's true in the UK, 217 00:24:08,430 --> 00:24:11,490 although I haven't had a chance to talk to you, but I'd be glad to do so. 218 00:24:12,150 --> 00:24:18,900 The the rest of these are all tied to international law, either humanitarian or human rights law, 219 00:24:19,140 --> 00:24:27,480 which I'll come to the second about abduction of children, attacks in schools or hospitals, and the denial of humanitarian aspects. 220 00:24:27,510 --> 00:24:41,490 Now, the numbers I used before, the 300,000, the listing done by the United Nations about these people does not include any of these. 221 00:24:45,530 --> 00:24:49,130 But my wife. I've been trying to discuss that at lunch. Why is that the case? 222 00:24:49,970 --> 00:24:53,210 Because everything is the case. Because the United Nations cannot make up the rules of war. 223 00:24:53,450 --> 00:25:02,060 Well, you can't bomb off them. We come on. But then somebody for bombing hospital or for using a school, for a shelter, for some platoon. 224 00:25:02,420 --> 00:25:07,309 We can do things to say the wrong and use the international law and practice it. 225 00:25:07,310 --> 00:25:10,820 Absolutely. The International Criminal Court later and something like that. 226 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:12,260 But in the short run, 227 00:25:12,260 --> 00:25:24,380 the only thing we keep coming up is how many children are actually recruited into a groupings either by the government or by its opponents opponents. 228 00:25:25,460 --> 00:25:29,270 Now, let me try one more crack at this. 229 00:25:33,990 --> 00:25:41,430 Practically everything I was do today has been evolving in the last 20 years. 230 00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:47,850 We don't have much of a history. You'll have your go to lecture next week. 231 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,120 So movement much more impact from the International Criminal Court than I am. 232 00:25:51,540 --> 00:26:00,510 But, you know, I think both of them you'll know everything about a human rights law, but not anything about what an AK 47 feels like. 233 00:26:01,740 --> 00:26:04,530 It is very hard to put the whole picture together. 234 00:26:04,900 --> 00:26:10,320 In the old days when I was a young Oxford student, we call the holistic approach, and nobody does that anymore. 235 00:26:10,740 --> 00:26:18,550 I get rid of all the fragmentary study because the role of intellectual was to put it all together, 236 00:26:18,630 --> 00:26:25,620 to put it all together and not part of the fragmenting it all into bits and pieces. 237 00:26:26,370 --> 00:26:31,320 So here we have an effort. I've already showed you all the groupings. 238 00:26:31,950 --> 00:26:35,130 Let me show you the data. But the group and then the game there. 239 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,070 The world is changing so rapidly that it's affecting the variable. 240 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:46,080 We're involved with Jordan in our conflict. Now I want to quickly go over what's happening in terms of all the rules about this 241 00:26:46,410 --> 00:26:50,340 and then conclude on one sec here and get your advice as to where to go next. 242 00:26:51,900 --> 00:26:56,730 First, in international law, international humanitarian law, international criminal law, 243 00:26:58,170 --> 00:27:02,100 the office of Protocol, which I've already said is the protocol, 244 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:13,170 which says what agencies are allowed is allowed to have in international law to hire children, what age I know or to compel them into the military. 245 00:27:15,180 --> 00:27:18,420 I don't intend to go through this. Are there any international lawyers in the room? 246 00:27:19,230 --> 00:27:24,300 Rather than have been, I was scared to death. There'd be somebody now the whole time on this topic. 247 00:27:24,570 --> 00:27:30,540 Clearly this was vital. This they have pushed further ahead because of topics like International Criminal Court. 248 00:27:31,050 --> 00:27:35,730 And so I'll come back to the International Criminal Court with all the different political scientists involved. 249 00:27:36,090 --> 00:27:43,719 But, of course, one would want to examine all of these laws and treaties and how they affect the world of international relations. 250 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,710 Obviously, I'm not trying to discount this guy or anything. 251 00:27:47,190 --> 00:27:52,530 What I am more interested in is the United Nations machinery itself about children in armed conflict. 252 00:27:53,810 --> 00:27:56,810 Everybody knows the Security Council has 15 members. 253 00:27:57,470 --> 00:28:02,690 Five have a veto. And that's going to affect all other subsidiary organs of the United Nations. 254 00:28:04,100 --> 00:28:07,280 But they don't know much about how the issue will end. 255 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:12,110 The children are in conflict as having heard the council sets up a working group. 256 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,310 Not working group is consist of 15 members. 257 00:28:17,540 --> 00:28:20,870 They meet privately. They don't like to tell us much about what they do. 258 00:28:21,470 --> 00:28:26,180 At the present time, Malaysia is the chair and Senegal of the vote. 259 00:28:26,180 --> 00:28:32,120 Here is my opinion. The present leadership is relatively weak in terms of getting things done. 260 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:41,120 When the French they control the security, they were driving it forward to a new set of responsibilities at the institutions. 261 00:28:41,630 --> 00:28:45,830 But at the present time, it's mostly status quo. 262 00:28:49,190 --> 00:28:57,280 It's difficult to get things done in that committee because there's always them from all of the countries are friendlier. 263 00:28:57,770 --> 00:29:02,750 So if you're committed and you'll have a country in the middle of 15, that's your friend. 264 00:29:03,230 --> 00:29:09,650 If you're from Yemen, you've got the country that's your friend and can prevent action because of the friendship. 265 00:29:10,460 --> 00:29:17,270 I'll come back to the friends another point later, but the point is that they operate on a unanimity principle. 266 00:29:17,700 --> 00:29:20,750 Essentially, it goes like this If you don't say anything, it's okay. 267 00:29:21,110 --> 00:29:23,090 But if you raise your voice, you criticise it. 268 00:29:23,270 --> 00:29:33,740 It's that, Oh, you're not going to get a lot of action of inactivity about the children armed conflict issues. 269 00:29:35,420 --> 00:29:40,370 Since 20 years now, we've had a special representative, the secretary general, 270 00:29:41,660 --> 00:29:48,530 whose whole career and job is to look after this issue for the secretary general. 271 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:53,059 She's now Nigerian. She's a wonderful lady. And you're ready for a one person. 272 00:29:53,060 --> 00:30:01,160 Got it right yesterday with my great moment. I'm going to be joining the huge volume of staff and the recordings of these people. 273 00:30:01,370 --> 00:30:08,660 How many people do you have working for? I mean, before I knew it, I used the government department radio in the department. 274 00:30:11,250 --> 00:30:14,370 No matter what department, no one's defence. 275 00:30:15,420 --> 00:30:18,239 That's not a good one for me. In my mind. 276 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:25,840 If my Department of eight professors now we think that they do know is exactly how many historians of the world. 277 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,870 And look at what it is. No, never mind. And. 278 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:47,379 She only has nine employees. All of international law, all of these countries are from 55 different instances. 279 00:30:47,380 --> 00:30:53,810 Right. In 24 different kinds of cases going on around the world. 280 00:30:55,160 --> 00:31:04,610 Every peacekeeping unit is told they must now look after questions related to children and our soldiers and most peacekeeping missions. 281 00:31:04,770 --> 00:31:11,120 They actually have a child protection officer with them actually assigned to go with the soldiers into the field. 282 00:31:11,630 --> 00:31:15,800 More than half of them have left. And all this reports back to her. 283 00:31:17,540 --> 00:31:21,650 I like her very much. I think she should have her staff quadruple. 284 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:28,309 Totally ridiculous. Now, what is she in charge of? Have to go the next fight to do. 285 00:31:28,310 --> 00:31:32,660 Apologise for this. We've got time to go a little bit more. Yeah. 286 00:31:32,930 --> 00:31:35,870 Here's what happens out in the field. If you've never seen this, I think you should. 287 00:31:35,870 --> 00:31:45,320 And most people here in the military, I think somebody in our in the military, the armed forces group, remember the 55 of them. 288 00:31:45,980 --> 00:31:50,930 They recruit and use some from the UN country team that's there. 289 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,350 It can be a peacekeeping mission. It can be a political mission. 290 00:31:54,800 --> 00:32:02,060 It could be as it was in Colombia. A it has a U.N. organisation. 291 00:32:02,060 --> 00:32:10,880 It may be a national official, but the senior U.N. person there will be in charge of a UN team, 292 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:18,140 and they are required to monitor and report on all acts of children armed conflict. 293 00:32:18,620 --> 00:32:22,370 That then is made into a system which then looks at it again, 294 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:30,200 and the rest is then published by the Secretary General in his annual report called The Shameless. 295 00:32:32,350 --> 00:32:42,250 This means that if you are a general in the Congo and you employ a child under 18, 296 00:32:44,350 --> 00:32:50,710 you might find her name listed in the Security Council annual register. 297 00:32:51,070 --> 00:32:58,630 And I'll be coming to this because sanctions are related to how we could treat you as a general in the Congo or you're pretty far. 298 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,640 Picking on other people. The UN country team recommends the Secretary-General. 299 00:33:05,910 --> 00:33:10,620 It puts him on the list. Well, this comes out once a year in April, May, June, 300 00:33:11,130 --> 00:33:20,850 and at least 55 entities are interested where child soldiers are being used by military around the world. 301 00:33:20,850 --> 00:33:21,870 As I mentioned before, 302 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:35,880 the woman in charge of that I just mentioned to you is the UN Special Representative for the General Panel on Children Armed Conflict. 303 00:33:36,150 --> 00:33:44,190 She has a staff of nine. She is also responsible to negotiate action plans with every government. 304 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:49,170 An action plan is a plan that the United Nations gets. 305 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:58,140 The soldiers of a particular area, of the government area to sign and say how they'll get rid of children by using armed conflict. 306 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,290 And so we give them some credit for what is happening. 307 00:34:01,890 --> 00:34:10,950 Every single government in the world which had armed children is now signed some kind of action plan. 308 00:34:12,030 --> 00:34:20,819 So we have some agreement. And Jan level I just heard from here on the agenda we over here but can actually escape from being named any more by 309 00:34:20,820 --> 00:34:28,770 signing an action plan government and until those action plans are part of the charter of forcing states to comply. 310 00:34:29,130 --> 00:34:31,740 Ours is a little harder to get an action plan now with the rebels, 311 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:40,830 some violent terrorist or anti-government group that are out in the jungle and who don't want you to tell them what to do. 312 00:34:42,570 --> 00:34:49,560 But we would like to get action plans with every one of these entities. 313 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:51,250 There are also some problems here. 314 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:57,270 The working group, the Security Council, doesn't want to give them enough money for them to go and investigate all the cases. 315 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,240 And everybody is nervous about them interviewing help. 316 00:35:01,590 --> 00:35:12,840 You can help me work this out. Under what circumstances should U.N. personnel or peacekeepers be given the job of going and interviewing violent, 317 00:35:13,650 --> 00:35:17,580 aggressive, non-state actors often take a route, make a deal. 318 00:35:18,390 --> 00:35:22,830 You don't have any children or anybody anymore. Now we all know that that's going to be a problem. 319 00:35:23,460 --> 00:35:30,600 Children played a major role, and all children were important in the Crusades. 320 00:35:31,590 --> 00:35:37,710 Children were given rewards by American presidents for fighting in the Civil War. 321 00:35:39,060 --> 00:35:42,750 Hitler gave a word for the union in the Second World War. 322 00:35:43,050 --> 00:35:49,560 And if you go through this, there are just thousands of cases where children are used in warfare and nobody said, hey, children. 323 00:35:49,830 --> 00:35:57,300 And also bear in mind that in the concept the teenager boy comes in of the 1930, so his years to be good enough. 324 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,730 We've changed our numbers here of what the definition of a child is wrong. 325 00:36:01,740 --> 00:36:05,670 Understand that we're trying to figure out we've agreed now to do something about the children. 326 00:36:06,180 --> 00:36:15,950 How are we doing? So this. This thing. And then we acted upon in theory and supposed to shame the people out of the country. 327 00:36:16,070 --> 00:36:22,940 And there's been some shaming. People don't like their name used and said that you get children killed or something like that. 328 00:36:24,410 --> 00:36:31,220 Of course, that was all U.N. peacekeeping and all other missions are involved in the country deemed the broke, 329 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:37,100 and they're now required when they go leave to work in the field to study, 330 00:36:37,310 --> 00:36:49,790 report, back, monitor and assess the use of children by the government or by the rebel groups and as required by the reporting technique. 331 00:36:50,870 --> 00:36:56,780 These are the monitoring, reviewing management techniques for task forces. 332 00:36:57,590 --> 00:37:02,749 Of course, we also have to remember what I said about something like that. We should get some sort of a moment. 333 00:37:02,750 --> 00:37:06,590 Canadian politics. But all of you, this has got to be looked at. 334 00:37:06,700 --> 00:37:13,430 International Labour Organisation. Hundreds of NGO is asking for money to help them do something. 335 00:37:13,850 --> 00:37:18,230 What's the what's to help people in poor countries? 336 00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:22,250 The friends since nobody actually trusts the working group. 337 00:37:22,820 --> 00:37:28,670 They're all sort of a group of friends in the United Nations, which makes it a job to watch the working group. 338 00:37:29,210 --> 00:37:35,480 And if you get from my accent, it's chaired by Canadians and always has been chaired by Canadian diplomat. 339 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:36,740 You wouldn't know it, I told you. 340 00:37:36,950 --> 00:37:44,760 And there's now a newer group and the French group, which is the one working group in Geneva with worldwide human rights issues. 341 00:37:45,260 --> 00:37:52,660 But you getting some egalitarian arguments put, you know, let's get to the key part of the lecture. 342 00:37:56,090 --> 00:38:05,090 The only way that the shame would work would be if it were sanctioned for that could. 343 00:38:08,190 --> 00:38:15,510 I guess sanctions are allowed in the United Nations under Chapter seven. 344 00:38:16,290 --> 00:38:21,780 Sanctions can push for embargo on countries. They can be put on individuals. 345 00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:28,340 They can be put one end to this. And many of us trade multiple times and say they usually fail. 346 00:38:29,390 --> 00:38:34,790 Well, when we talk about the sanctions regime, the number 16 sanctions committees, 347 00:38:36,020 --> 00:38:45,350 these committees are enforced today and they're putting sanctions on individuals that they will join alQaeda or terrorists who move money around. 348 00:38:46,190 --> 00:38:49,570 And this sanctions regime, though, can do other things besides targeting. 349 00:38:51,190 --> 00:38:56,260 They can control your assets or prevent you from getting arrested. 350 00:38:57,070 --> 00:39:00,430 They can stop you from getting a passport or travelling around the world. 351 00:39:01,540 --> 00:39:05,770 And this is now done to some degree. 352 00:39:06,910 --> 00:39:12,580 Thank you very much. This is done to some degree now around the world. 353 00:39:12,580 --> 00:39:24,550 And watch it now, though, right now. And this is fun to look into the 1100 individuals or discrete entities named by the United Nations. 354 00:39:25,030 --> 00:39:31,810 So what do you do with the United Nations? Consolidated sanctions with an even better name will pop up from every country. 355 00:39:31,990 --> 00:39:37,600 Well, how bad it got is, and you can't count for any more. Now, most of you are very familiar with that. 356 00:39:39,010 --> 00:39:43,010 The sanctions exist to try to control behaviour. 357 00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:51,370 And in recent years, the United Nations have moved from a fairly strategy of all to embargoes. 358 00:39:51,370 --> 00:39:55,940 And thank you picked out a country for that. 359 00:39:56,470 --> 00:40:01,570 We're going to put an arms embargo on you and then it doesn't work. We're going to put an economic embargo on it. 360 00:40:01,570 --> 00:40:07,420 It doesn't work. So we will have the literature is full of people like me writing, don't worry what I would argue. 361 00:40:07,420 --> 00:40:11,600 And then I would work anyway. And there's a lot of crap. You can always get the weapons. 362 00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:18,830 With for my money. And there's no problem. But in recent years, the U.N. has moved to what are called pardon of sanctions. 363 00:40:19,550 --> 00:40:26,860 Any one individual or name is the inside of that state and say, this is action, you're very good. 364 00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:35,660 You're no longer controlled. Now, these sanctions committee are probably where we should go in. 365 00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:42,410 Probably difficult coming. But the United Nations doesn't want to do what needs to happen. 366 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:50,590 They don't want to say that the committee, the working group that sets up the list that says Ruther, 367 00:40:50,590 --> 00:40:57,580 bad boy or bad girl, one world might be sanctioned. So they continue the whole statement. 368 00:40:58,090 --> 00:41:01,540 We're going to the voters. You're a bad person. We're going to say no. 369 00:41:02,050 --> 00:41:05,680 And then they do not follow through with the sanctions. 370 00:41:06,820 --> 00:41:10,550 And the only being all depends on definition. 371 00:41:10,580 --> 00:41:14,310 I won't spend a lot of time on that. Perhaps one person. Thank you. 372 00:41:14,380 --> 00:41:19,490 In these 20 years. Of course it's the way to go. 373 00:41:20,420 --> 00:41:24,470 Let me move the ICC and then we go back to the sanctions and then I'll stop. 374 00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,729 Of course, all kinds of other courts, tribunals. 375 00:41:28,730 --> 00:41:32,690 They all know both the tribunals of various countries, the domestic courts, 376 00:41:32,690 --> 00:41:37,070 an international criminal court, just say, I work with the International Criminal Court. There's a lot of talking. 377 00:41:38,870 --> 00:41:48,590 First of all, the problem with it is that both big countries, powerful countries, will join this kind of long Russia to form itself. 378 00:41:49,250 --> 00:41:53,000 And the reasons why we could discuss the International Criminal Court for some time. 379 00:41:53,450 --> 00:42:02,990 But for now, the point is that in order to get the international court to achieve something, I reduce the number of people involved in armed conflict. 380 00:42:04,070 --> 00:42:08,810 It would have to punish several people. It hasn't managed to do. 381 00:42:11,030 --> 00:42:14,700 It has. In all the years it's now been here before, 382 00:42:14,700 --> 00:42:20,390 even before cases come to a conclusion and three ended up with people guilty and 383 00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:24,720 none of the three only one were vanga could even be said maybe a little bit. 384 00:42:24,930 --> 00:42:29,720 He's involved in the children. Over 300,000 people. 385 00:42:31,110 --> 00:42:38,090 It's 55 different. And we only found. In 50 years, they only found one. 386 00:42:40,620 --> 00:42:48,960 Of course, the United Nations doesn't want to assess the notion of criminality from the UN system down to the individual. 387 00:42:50,830 --> 00:42:56,110 This is why sanctions might be the only place to go. You don't require criminality. 388 00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:06,429 You don't require the lawyers. And opposition to lead requires the sanctions committees which already exist, or a new sanctions committee, let's say, 389 00:43:06,430 --> 00:43:10,030 of the Working Group on Armed Conflict to have the ability to sanction people 390 00:43:10,300 --> 00:43:15,580 and they could make their naming and shaming list and some background to it. 391 00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:21,780 Of course, that's what the former French ambassador thought. 392 00:43:21,990 --> 00:43:29,160 If I do that, you're going to make this committee work. You've got to get rid of the horrible slogan, not your statement. 393 00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:38,700 You have to not deny them with their passport. Now, the skinny fingers of the rebels, they will bomb it here in the jungle of. 394 00:43:39,950 --> 00:43:43,730 Congo. You don't care too much about your past. I agree that some problem here. 395 00:43:44,870 --> 00:43:48,499 They don't want to travel anyway. But if you think of what's happened, for example, 396 00:43:48,500 --> 00:43:57,680 with the president of the that he's managed to escape being brought before the International Criminal Court before you've read in the paper, 397 00:43:58,100 --> 00:44:03,020 because none of the Arab countries will ever find one of the leaders, the International Criminal Court. 398 00:44:03,690 --> 00:44:10,940 And so he can fly into other countries in Africa, have a good time flying back to his home country and never have Interpol. 399 00:44:11,150 --> 00:44:14,150 Really? Please organisation pick him up and send him home. 400 00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:22,550 Somehow or other, we've got to go further than the listing of all the action plans we're working to represent, 401 00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:32,600 and the listing is working for a bit, but it's not strong enough to really make people frightened, to move aside, to effect behaviour. 402 00:44:33,500 --> 00:44:42,980 Why do we have an. I don't mind. You told me I'm 40. Just tell me, how do we affect the behaviour of the people whose names are on the team list? 403 00:44:44,210 --> 00:44:52,400 Who are part of the 55 situation where 300,000 people are employed against international law? 404 00:44:53,390 --> 00:44:59,870 Against all the rules that I has been we that they are unless they're nervous about what might happen. 405 00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:11,310 Let's end this. It's huge them, Jean-Marie. 406 00:45:13,340 --> 00:45:20,360 All these love and you can come repaired the Oxford University Electronics the likes 407 00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,860 of the next move on French foreign policy film next of the next week of the Congo. 408 00:45:25,490 --> 00:45:34,910 Little like through the next week on the army in Thailand. What is missing in the is this is the totality of what makes the whole system work. 409 00:45:36,220 --> 00:45:39,820 And how can we make it work better? You know.