1 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,000 Nice to be back and see such friendly faces, someone I haven't seen for a long time. 2 00:00:11,510 --> 00:00:17,270 So what I'm going to talk about today is the organisation of observations, how we organise observations for climate. 3 00:00:17,510 --> 00:00:22,100 And then some examples of where they come from in terms of satellite observations. 4 00:00:22,490 --> 00:00:29,510 So observations are clearly very important. And if you can imagine what we would have been doing with the Earth as a planet 100 years ago, 5 00:00:29,510 --> 00:00:32,780 you would have stuck a thermometer in its mouth and tried to decide from that 6 00:00:32,780 --> 00:00:37,940 whether it had liver cancer or lung disease or heart failure or whatever. 7 00:00:38,210 --> 00:00:44,840 But now we have many different systems and bit like you see the poor patient here is wide up in all sorts of different ways. 8 00:00:45,260 --> 00:00:50,600 And so we need to make so many different types of observations to better understand and predict what's actually going on. 9 00:00:51,170 --> 00:00:56,209 And there's been a long history of this, I guess, even before these dates. 10 00:00:56,210 --> 00:01:04,740 But the first observations, which really are useful are the ones which were made by Flamsteed and Cassini back in the late 17th century. 11 00:01:04,770 --> 00:01:06,770 The first observations of the numbers of sunspots. 12 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:14,600 And it was their observations which gave us the famous more than the minimum back in the late 19th century and have been related to this. 13 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:22,670 All right. But ever since Alexander von Humboldt was the famous explorer and geophysicist in the early 19th century, 14 00:01:23,030 --> 00:01:26,599 made enormous amounts of observations, particularly in South America. 15 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:33,820 And after him, mostly very reluctantly, he allowed the Humboldt current to the cold currents up the west coast of South America to be named after him. 16 00:01:33,830 --> 00:01:40,670 And he was very embarrassed by that. But it was Lieutenant Maury who was actually an American naval lieutenant who 17 00:01:40,670 --> 00:01:46,790 convened the first conference on consistent observations for Meterology in 1953, 18 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:54,020 and that subsequently led to the setting up of the International Meteorological Organisation, which is now the the World Meteorological Organisation, 19 00:01:54,470 --> 00:02:00,980 which had its Congress in the last few days, and then really starts modern observations, 20 00:02:00,980 --> 00:02:05,960 organised observations thought through the API of the International Geophysical Year 1957, 21 00:02:06,650 --> 00:02:13,610 first setting up of the World Weather Watch and the Global Atmosphere Research Program in the 1960s, the World Climate Conference. 22 00:02:13,610 --> 00:02:18,380 The first of those was in 1979, which set up the World Climate Program, the World Climate Research Program, 23 00:02:19,010 --> 00:02:22,520 and then a number of different events which led up to the Second World Climate 24 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:28,300 Conference in 1990 with the number of distinguished individuals sitting in the back. 25 00:02:28,310 --> 00:02:33,080 If you recognise some of I guess, and this is what set up the global climate observing system, 26 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:42,590 and that's the body which is responsible for defining the requirements which are needed for IPCC and for the UN after policy, 27 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,490 both of which have been set up in the previous climate conference. 28 00:02:47,420 --> 00:02:51,290 And I'm for it doesn't make the observations, 29 00:02:51,290 --> 00:02:57,290 but it works with organisations which do provide observations to make sure that they made in the right way with the right specification. 30 00:02:57,890 --> 00:03:01,670 And this is reflected in the actual the Convention on Climate Change, 31 00:03:01,670 --> 00:03:07,640 the text of the convention which has specific reference to systematic observations in a number of places, 32 00:03:08,090 --> 00:03:12,440 and this is reported formally back to the UN official policy. 33 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,940 Every year it's there conference of the parties and this is particularly important. 34 00:03:16,940 --> 00:03:25,399 One The first plan for observations was set up in 1995 under the first chairman of the of the steering committee, 35 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,920 which was John Horton later this parish. 36 00:03:29,150 --> 00:03:36,110 Some of you at least will remember and since then this has been implemented over a period of the last, what, 20 years? 37 00:03:36,470 --> 00:03:38,720 We're now on the third version of this plan, 38 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:47,920 and we have a status report which will be delivered to the COP21 in Paris towards the end of this year, which tells us where we stand today. 39 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,850 And on the basis of this, a new implementation plan will be delivered in a year's time. 40 00:03:53,300 --> 00:03:58,580 So this is a very comprehensive suite of observations that are needed for all aspects of climate understanding. 41 00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:01,040 And the status report will comprise two things, 42 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:08,030 which is a progress report against the last implementation plan set up five years ago, which has 140 actions in it. 43 00:04:08,780 --> 00:04:14,780 So we will be reporting on an individual basis against those, but also a broader assessment of where we stand, 44 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:21,370 even if we actually completed everything in the last plan, doesn't necessarily mean we have everything that we need to do. 45 00:04:22,020 --> 00:04:25,850 So there's a second element, which is an overall assessment of adequacy. 46 00:04:26,270 --> 00:04:31,580 This gets delivered at the end of this year and forms the basis for a new implementation plan next year. 47 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:38,420 And the next plan, I think, will be a little bit more broad, not necessarily in the content, but in the relevance. 48 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:46,610 And so there's an unstated and unofficial reference that really the observations, of course, 49 00:04:46,610 --> 00:04:51,710 have been responsible for up until now have been essentially for the science, the understanding of climate change. 50 00:04:51,740 --> 00:04:55,700 So it's basically what IPCC Working Group One has been responsible for. 51 00:04:56,540 --> 00:05:04,610 But increasingly, we're now asked to try and support the work of the other two working groups of IPCC, which is about adaptation and mitigation. 52 00:05:05,270 --> 00:05:07,890 And I'll share some of the observations. For that matter. 53 00:05:08,580 --> 00:05:14,400 But it's important, I think, to understand and I think we have a real problem with communication environment. 54 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:20,250 And one of the things we should be doing here is explaining what the importance of these observations to a broader community. 55 00:05:20,580 --> 00:05:22,590 So those working for adaptation and mitigation, 56 00:05:22,590 --> 00:05:28,200 which is much more to do with the everyday life and the effects of climate change adaptation in particular, 57 00:05:28,710 --> 00:05:30,810 how does it relate to things like climate services? 58 00:05:32,820 --> 00:05:43,170 How do we support the science that's going in the other aspects, not only in climate, energy cycle, the water cycle, carbon cycle? 59 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:50,190 How can we support the other conventions, the Convention on Biodiversity or the UN Convention for combating this occasion? 60 00:05:50,670 --> 00:05:53,819 And I think a lot there's a lot more relevance can be done with the observations 61 00:05:53,820 --> 00:05:57,540 we're making without necessarily expanding the list of observations greatly. 62 00:05:58,860 --> 00:06:07,200 And we also need to think about some of the other aspects of it supporting observations, the need for object restitution, the ultimate regional use. 63 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:11,219 Unless you have a very precise orbit underpinning that the need for global gravity 64 00:06:11,220 --> 00:06:17,840 measurements which also lead to better orbit restitution on a number of others. 65 00:06:17,850 --> 00:06:22,620 And I'll talk a little bit about vital science, and this comes back to the question of communication. 66 00:06:23,790 --> 00:06:26,669 You may have heard Keith Shine this morning on the radio. 67 00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:32,880 I don't know if you've heard him talking about the apparent changes in the hiatus, so I'll mention that live. 68 00:06:34,290 --> 00:06:41,700 And this is one point just by way of reference. You should be aware that in order to prepare for the next implementation plan, 69 00:06:42,540 --> 00:06:51,960 where there will be an international science conference hosted by G Cos in the Netherlands Royal Academy in the middle of in March next year. 70 00:06:52,350 --> 00:06:59,100 So this will be quite important understanding how to define the observations that are needed for the next generation of models and also for the, 71 00:06:59,730 --> 00:07:06,600 I think the much broader economic, political and social needs which are deriving from better information about climate. 72 00:07:07,050 --> 00:07:10,200 Now, that doesn't mean to say we're all suddenly going to turn into social scientists, 73 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:18,210 but I think we should be more aware of the relevance of what we're doing and help to guide a little bit more what the relevance of the science is. 74 00:07:18,930 --> 00:07:21,240 So that's really that's the bitmoji costs. 75 00:07:21,660 --> 00:07:28,530 And the upshot of all the work, which of course is done, is to produce a list of so-called essential climate variables. 76 00:07:28,950 --> 00:07:35,340 And these were developed in the the third, the second version of the implementation plan in 2003, 77 00:07:36,210 --> 00:07:44,130 and this is a list of what have been defined by a broad scientific consensus are the 50 important variables that are needed spanning the ocean, 78 00:07:44,130 --> 00:07:54,810 the atmosphere and the land roughly roughly a third each, which are needed to understand modern climate change and climate physics properly. 79 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:03,000 And this is being very powerful. I mean, it's a somewhat arbitrary set, but it is very important to actually define a set. 80 00:08:03,450 --> 00:08:09,900 And everybody from, you know, more than the 15 years that these have been in existence has had their own set. 81 00:08:10,530 --> 00:08:17,219 But if you wanted to have a coherent activity to try and address delivering the observations, 82 00:08:17,220 --> 00:08:23,459 you first will have to decide exactly what it is the observations are how you define the precision of those observations and so on. 83 00:08:23,460 --> 00:08:30,360 It's not just the name, but how frequently, on what physical scale, with what, what's precision and so on. 84 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:36,600 Each measurement is made. So setting up this rather somewhat arbitrary list of the science of climate variables 85 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:41,229 was actually a major step forward in allowing the people to respond to it. 86 00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:47,100 And this is the Disney version. You can see that distributed amongst the various different balance of the Earth system. 87 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,990 And satellites were a very important part of this. 88 00:08:52,260 --> 00:08:55,870 This is the first image taken from space of the Earth from July. 89 00:08:55,950 --> 00:09:00,540 Ross 1st April 1960. I always think it's very humbling when I see this, actually, 90 00:09:00,540 --> 00:09:09,449 because this is two and a half years after the first satellite was launched and within a few months of this, Yuri Gagarin was in space. 91 00:09:09,450 --> 00:09:15,750 Some nine years later, we have the man on the moon the way we progressed these days and still be thinking about a free phase, 92 00:09:15,900 --> 00:09:17,700 I think for the time this was coming. 93 00:09:18,180 --> 00:09:23,400 So it's a bit embarrassing sometimes to think that two and a half years after you able to send a beach ball up in space, 94 00:09:24,050 --> 00:09:29,010 you were producing something that gave you a pretty passable image of what weather looked like on the earth from above. 95 00:09:30,930 --> 00:09:36,390 And satellites have continued to be very important in responding to the the needs of g cost. 96 00:09:36,780 --> 00:09:41,400 So if we look back at the last implementation time, which is this one was in 2006, 97 00:09:42,420 --> 00:09:47,880 so we have the plan which tells us what you need to measure, how you need to measure them and what the definition should be. 98 00:09:48,210 --> 00:09:53,960 There are also a set of climate monitoring principles which are, in addition to the famous call principles on climate concrete, 99 00:09:54,510 --> 00:09:58,950 which tell you about the length of time you need to measure them, the type of decision you need to make, and so on. 100 00:10:00,660 --> 00:10:06,690 So they they are an important adjunct to the list of observations to be made so that when you. 101 00:10:06,740 --> 00:10:12,680 Write an implementation plan and very helpfully G Cos at the time wrote a supplement 102 00:10:12,680 --> 00:10:16,970 for this for the space agencies to say don't bother reading the whole plan. 103 00:10:17,420 --> 00:10:24,650 This is the bit that you need to concentrate on. So it's a very it was a subset of the overall plan which said what satellites should be delivering. 104 00:10:25,070 --> 00:10:34,460 And then the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites, which is the body which represents about 30, all the major space agencies worldwide, 105 00:10:34,820 --> 00:10:42,020 came up with a document which was essentially a plan for how to respond amongst all of them and between them to the needs for details. 106 00:10:42,530 --> 00:10:49,549 So again, this is part of a coherence system because you had the OECD, because you have a well defined requirement, 107 00:10:49,550 --> 00:10:53,660 you can have a a straightforward response to that and actually make some progress. 108 00:10:54,170 --> 00:10:59,570 So again, I emphasise how important it is to have a coherent set of requirements. 109 00:11:00,170 --> 00:11:03,600 And of course satellites are very important for all sorts of reasons, 110 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,640 and I just give some examples of the sort of data that you can see from satellites. 111 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:13,190 Earth observation. Sorry, sea level rise is clearly an extremely important parameter. 112 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:18,320 And so this is the sort of arguments that one gets from a suite of different activities we see 113 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:26,870 over here going back to 1991 with the Earth one year to and then through to far the latest one, 114 00:11:26,870 --> 00:11:36,650 which has been funded jointly by France and India. And you see that continuing pretty well and 1 to 5 point constant increases in sea level rise. 115 00:11:37,100 --> 00:11:40,850 I'll just point out this little bit here and I'll come back to that in a few slides time. 116 00:11:41,450 --> 00:11:45,889 But the interesting thing about satellites is that you can measure this one just as a global average, 117 00:11:45,890 --> 00:11:50,390 but you can disassociate it and disaggregated across the world. 118 00:11:50,960 --> 00:12:00,470 And you see that while the world is on average going up at about three millimetres the decade from here, then pretty much zero. 119 00:12:00,470 --> 00:12:04,670 So then that's not the same everywhere the West Coast, 120 00:12:04,670 --> 00:12:13,280 the United States and you actually have sea level is dropping in relation to the land as a result of by social to see another aspect going on. 121 00:12:13,790 --> 00:12:19,400 But in areas like this in the southeast and southwest Pacific in Southeast Asia, 122 00:12:19,910 --> 00:12:25,160 which is coincidentally and unfortunately some of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise, 123 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:30,950 you're actually seeing sea level increasing at about four or five times the rate of average global life. 124 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:37,610 And I gave this talk a couple of on this show, this slide a couple of months ago at a meeting of the UN after the sea. 125 00:12:37,610 --> 00:12:41,810 And the previous speaker was from the Solomon Islands Meteorological Agency. 126 00:12:42,020 --> 00:12:43,460 And these are the Solomon Islands. Yeah. 127 00:12:44,450 --> 00:12:51,979 So they were actually quite concerned about sea level rise because they're seeing something which is even by the minimum projections is going 128 00:12:51,980 --> 00:12:57,890 to be something like one and a half metres by the end of the century as opposed to the 30 centimetres minimum that we're seeing globally. 129 00:12:58,940 --> 00:13:01,190 So they are significantly worried about it. 130 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:09,740 So in order to respond to this in a more coherent way, the committee set up this this working group on climate data, 131 00:13:10,250 --> 00:13:18,470 which is now led by this guy here, Pascale Lecomte, who is actually based on all of this group as this photograph has taken out. 132 00:13:19,010 --> 00:13:23,630 And he's now the chairman of this in the climate, the climate office, which looks after these activities. 133 00:13:23,660 --> 00:13:29,780 But this is also done in Holland as well. So this is something else that we should try and build stronger links with. 134 00:13:30,350 --> 00:13:34,659 And this is now teamed up with the the group on meteorological satellite sea games. 135 00:13:34,660 --> 00:13:41,860 So this really encompasses all the space agencies, not just the research agencies like ISA and Ambassador, but also Noa. 136 00:13:41,990 --> 00:13:48,170 You met Sam, the Japanese, Chinese, Korean Indian Met Services, Russian Metservice and so on. 137 00:13:48,980 --> 00:13:57,680 And so we have a coherent plan to try and deliver these space observations to climate and in order to do that. 138 00:13:57,680 --> 00:14:05,990 And so we've set up a program called the ISA Climate Change Initiative, the ISA CCI, which is managed I could follow. 139 00:14:06,830 --> 00:14:11,450 And this involves a whole range of hundreds, 140 00:14:11,460 --> 00:14:19,010 literally hundreds of scientists worldwide looking at a range of different aspects of the OECD over a long term period. 141 00:14:19,020 --> 00:14:26,750 So this is funded at the level of about €100 million at the moment, and we're hoping to get upwards of another €100 million into this next year. 142 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:34,590 And so we're addressing a range of the different risks. So it works like this. 143 00:14:34,590 --> 00:14:43,280 We have all the satellite data, not just from ISA, but also from all the other space agencies we have for the different categories of objects. 144 00:14:43,290 --> 00:14:50,750 We're looking at developing a range of different equities for reanalysis, for modelling and for services. 145 00:14:51,110 --> 00:14:54,649 Now this is the way we looked at the fifties TVs and we said, 146 00:14:54,650 --> 00:15:00,120 which of these are directly accessible by satellites in terms of just about more than half but 147 00:15:00,170 --> 00:15:06,650 30 of them of those ISA had observations which were particularly relevant for not all of them. 148 00:15:06,730 --> 00:15:17,220 But for some of them. And so we chose the ones which are in in yellow that in the first coat we've implemented the ones in green and 149 00:15:17,230 --> 00:15:25,180 we're planning to implement the ones in blue as well in the next phase and the stage for the very sharp eyed, 150 00:15:25,180 --> 00:15:30,009 you'll notice that there's, there's one down here for land surface temperature, a present that isn't the ECB. 151 00:15:30,010 --> 00:15:35,559 It's been under debate for about ten years as to whether it should be along the list of climate variables. 152 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,920 And it's very likely to be in the next implementation plan. 153 00:15:39,430 --> 00:15:46,330 And there's been a lot of debate about it, mostly because many of us have argued that nobody knows really what land surface temperature actually is. 154 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:54,040 Everybody has a different if you have 20 people in the room, you've got 30 different definitions of it, but no way of holding it on a definition, 155 00:15:54,040 --> 00:16:00,340 which is to do with the radiant temperature of the radiant power coming from the land, which is what's important for driving climate. 156 00:16:01,090 --> 00:16:08,230 So this is what's being done by ISA and in the two phases, which last the first one was up until about 2013. 157 00:16:08,890 --> 00:16:14,440 We're in the middle of the second phase now. We've been looking at this suite of 40 of them all together. 158 00:16:14,980 --> 00:16:19,389 And really the thing that's changed as we've progressed is, is not the list of increase, 159 00:16:19,390 --> 00:16:25,150 but the period over which the measurements are being able to be made. So we're trying to extend to longer and longer periods, 160 00:16:25,570 --> 00:16:33,210 ideally climate records and this sort of the liturgy says that they are 30 records which are needed for climate. 161 00:16:33,220 --> 00:16:39,370 And clearly, if you haven't got 30 years and you have to make do with what you have, but you would like to have 30 years if you can. 162 00:16:40,930 --> 00:16:49,300 So these are the results of these have been quoted in the the last assessment report of the IPCC, particularly in this year. 163 00:16:49,630 --> 00:16:52,270 And there's one in particular which has been very important in that, 164 00:16:52,270 --> 00:16:58,270 which is the ice sheets CCAR, which is being led by Andrew Shepherd from Leeds University. 165 00:16:58,870 --> 00:17:05,920 And I'll show some examples of that now. We've also developed a number of for the science community in particular, 166 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,960 a number of different aspects of the programme which make the data much more easily accessible. 167 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:16,840 The whole suite of toolbox is there for people to be able to take the data and use them and visualisations. 168 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:21,460 And I'll show some animations in a moment and those are available as well, 169 00:17:21,940 --> 00:17:28,570 so they can be downloaded and taken away and used in teaching or lecture courses or whatever. 170 00:17:29,620 --> 00:17:34,240 So it wasn't just the datasets, it's also the accessibility and means of handling them. 171 00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:43,750 So this is one example and it's taken from the the MBT Ice Mass Balance and the comparison experiment that was funded by ESA, CCI along with NASA. 172 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,670 And this is the one led by Andrew Shepherd. 173 00:17:46,630 --> 00:17:53,320 And over the years, the last 20 years, there have been many different measurements of mass loss from Antarctica and from Greenland, 174 00:17:54,700 --> 00:17:57,999 and they've been made from four different techniques or three and a half different 175 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,350 techniques grew imagery that is just simply weighing how much mass is there, 176 00:18:04,270 --> 00:18:09,820 interferometry, which measures, how much mass is being lost by looking at the motions of ice coming off the ice sheet? 177 00:18:10,300 --> 00:18:16,990 And then two different types of altimetry, either by laser or by radar oximetry, which is actually looking at the director photography, 178 00:18:17,020 --> 00:18:21,460 the shape of the ice sheet rather precisely down to sort of centimetre sub centimetre level. 179 00:18:21,940 --> 00:18:30,820 And over the years with different techniques showing different colours have given lots of different results and all in consistently each other. 180 00:18:31,570 --> 00:18:36,790 And the strength of me was to take all these different results and to analyse how they were 181 00:18:36,790 --> 00:18:42,399 produced and to come up with the best analysis of of over the last 20 years to what was going on. 182 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:50,650 Similarly for Greenland, we have slightly more measurements. I think the Greenland you can see these are not necessarily consistent with each other, 183 00:18:51,130 --> 00:18:58,840 but like all the simulation techniques you take from each point you can and what you should come up with the best answer and this is what they found. 184 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,290 That's we've had a steady increase in the sea level contribution, 185 00:19:02,860 --> 00:19:08,440 the rise in sea level coming from both Greenland and Antarctica over the last 20 years. 186 00:19:08,830 --> 00:19:12,390 And it's it's increasing. So this is the total contribution you're seeing here. 187 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,480 So you'd expect it to increase, but the rate at which is increasing is also increasing. 188 00:19:16,930 --> 00:19:23,739 So we're going from about a quarter of a millimetre back in 1990 to around the millimetre you have that. 189 00:19:23,740 --> 00:19:29,830 So we are losing mass from the ice sheets more rapidly now than we were 20 years ago by a factor of about four. 190 00:19:29,990 --> 00:19:38,350 So this is a nice is what this is going to be able to work. 191 00:19:42,030 --> 00:19:48,090 And then problem my computer. The sports. 192 00:19:57,260 --> 00:20:01,010 Readers of Apple and Macintosh are not quite what they used to. 193 00:20:01,790 --> 00:20:09,320 This is a nice example, showing an animation of ice sheet transports from Greenland and from Antarctica. 194 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,860 This is primarily from the Interferometric method. 195 00:20:12,860 --> 00:20:20,360 So what you're seeing here is the the right foot, which must have been lost from the primary glaciers on the boundaries of the. 196 00:20:20,810 --> 00:20:29,570 In this case, the Greenland ice sheet. You see the losses coming all from the boundaries effectively. 197 00:20:29,590 --> 00:20:33,700 What's happening is that the ice sheet is slowly moving out towards the ocean. 198 00:20:35,170 --> 00:20:39,640 The centre is not decreasing. There's still accumulation in the centre. 199 00:20:40,190 --> 00:20:54,880 In fact. Is your phone in your pocket? 200 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:08,300 All right. So. 201 00:21:12,530 --> 00:21:15,590 Okay. Is that better? Yes. Sounds better to me. 202 00:21:17,300 --> 00:21:22,760 So while you are watching this, I'm sure whilst I was talking and now you see the same thing happen in Antarctica. 203 00:21:23,690 --> 00:21:26,210 In Antarctica, the situation is a bit more complicated. 204 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:32,960 The East Antarctic ice sheet, which is the main one you see on the towards the right of the screen, is pretty well stable. 205 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:38,240 There's not much happening there. It's a very, very slight loss, but almost within the error bars at zero. 206 00:21:38,810 --> 00:21:46,010 And there is loss which is taking place from the Western Antarctic ice sheet and from a particular small number of areas in particular. 207 00:21:46,370 --> 00:21:50,620 And these are the critical areas for I'm talking financial loss overall. 208 00:21:50,670 --> 00:21:53,810 The loss from Greenland is greater than that from Antarctica. 209 00:21:55,020 --> 00:21:59,360 Um, but it's a very complicated situation. There are different things happening in Antarctica as well. 210 00:21:59,610 --> 00:22:04,250 And Pine Island is the area which is losing the greatest amount of mass know Antarctica. 211 00:22:04,870 --> 00:22:10,590 I think you just about to get some numbers for that. Perhaps not. 212 00:22:30,870 --> 00:22:36,480 Now you see the duplication of the slide I showed you a few moments ago. 213 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:42,730 Okay. So that's one. 214 00:22:44,590 --> 00:22:50,770 So this is using the Interferometric method, you can actually measure the loss and this is just the same slide turned around north upwards. 215 00:22:51,310 --> 00:22:54,670 And this shows the loss of mass through the glaciers. 216 00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:01,330 Yeah. Moving downwards from the ice cap here down into the ocean to the west of Greenland. 217 00:23:01,780 --> 00:23:10,870 And this is at a rate of metres per day. So we're up to something like 10 to 15 metres per day of the glaciers moving into the ocean. 218 00:23:12,430 --> 00:23:17,709 So if we the benefit we have now of 20 years and more of observations from the 219 00:23:17,710 --> 00:23:24,040 US one year as to when we sat more recent ascent one Pterosaur Rex and so on. 220 00:23:24,100 --> 00:23:30,579 We can see here the evolution of the movement over the last 20 years or so from 1995, 221 00:23:30,580 --> 00:23:38,260 with the arrest on the left through 2008 with the Japanese Alice Instrument and Pterosaur Rex and 222 00:23:38,260 --> 00:23:43,510 the rate of increase of the ice speed and the mass loss has been increasing over that period, 223 00:23:43,510 --> 00:23:50,170 as you can see. So we're able to measure this, the mass loss from the major ice sheets rather precisely. 224 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:58,270 And there's a second animation here which looks at 30 years worth of observations of soil moisture. 225 00:24:01,550 --> 00:24:07,590 Again, this comes out of the soil moisture element of the climate change initiative of Easter, 226 00:24:08,150 --> 00:24:12,379 and you're incorporating data from this whole range of satellites that you saw there, 227 00:24:12,380 --> 00:24:16,550 about 15 different satellites starting off in the early eighties, 228 00:24:16,550 --> 00:24:21,800 I think it is, or even late seventies with the passive microwave radiometer sensors, 229 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,940 which were carried by a series of American military and civilian satellites, 230 00:24:26,300 --> 00:24:32,780 satellites, and then more recently with active solar systems scatter orbiters. 231 00:24:32,930 --> 00:24:37,690 And then in the last couple of years with dedicated satellites looking at saw moisture. 232 00:24:38,060 --> 00:24:44,780 So this just gives you the monthly averages and then will change in a moment to look at the anomalies, which is a bit more interesting. 233 00:24:45,410 --> 00:24:56,660 So this is a three monthly running total running average of the anomaly against the mean and you see the seasonal behaviour, 234 00:24:56,990 --> 00:25:05,389 but also you begin to pick up, you know, as time goes on you'll see it will identify particular events in different parts of the world and so on. 235 00:25:05,390 --> 00:25:08,030 Watch. It is extremely important for all sorts of reasons, 236 00:25:08,990 --> 00:25:13,910 not just because it's one of the the major factors governing agriculture and food production worldwide. 237 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,570 Apart from in Western Europe and some parts of North America, 238 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:23,770 agriculture worldwide is is essentially limited by the amount of water, which is in fact. 239 00:25:23,780 --> 00:25:30,470 So it's water limited. So so much is the key parameter for the value of agriculture, 240 00:25:30,890 --> 00:25:37,670 but also it's extremely important in terms of evapotranspiration and the energy balance and the whole aspect of the earth system. 241 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:51,260 So we now have 30 plus years with 40 years worth of improving measurements of soil moisture and able to identify specific events, 242 00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:55,310 flooding and droughts in different areas around the world as time goes on. 243 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:21,460 So there are a number of these animations which are being made available on the website and uh, 244 00:26:21,620 --> 00:26:27,470 they can be picked up and you can take them and use them yourself in presentations or in teaching or whatever. 245 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:40,830 If you wish. And it's put together by a company called Planetary Visions, which is based on in Bristol, uh, Media Company. 246 00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:55,589 Okay. More recently, we're able for the first time to start measuring direct measurements of CO2 in space. 247 00:26:55,590 --> 00:26:58,590 We were able to do that to some extent within business, but not very well. 248 00:26:59,250 --> 00:27:02,490 This is the last. Just some data from a few months ago. 249 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,960 The first orbiting Carbon Observatory, OCO satellite was launched by NASA. 250 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:12,330 OCO one didn't go very far. It failed on launch, wound up in the ocean. 251 00:27:12,660 --> 00:27:20,120 But OCO CO2 was launched last year and this is giving us the best observations of spatially differentiated CO2 measurements worldwide. 252 00:27:20,130 --> 00:27:26,700 And here you see the the major emissions coming from both manmade and also natural emissions in the different areas. 253 00:27:27,450 --> 00:27:31,409 This is clearly going to be something that's very important in the future, he says. 254 00:27:31,410 --> 00:27:36,390 Developing something called carbon soft, which if it's selected in a few weeks time, 255 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:42,950 will fly in the early 2020s with a rather improved resolution both the radiometric 256 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:47,430 being and spatially and able to attract for the first time individual sources of CO2. 257 00:27:49,140 --> 00:27:52,440 And these are clearly very important, not just for the physics of what's going on in the atmosphere, 258 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,590 but also for the politics of what's going in the atmosphere as well. 259 00:27:56,580 --> 00:28:02,970 So this is a very important dataset. We talked earlier also about sea level rise and sea level has a number of different components. 260 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,360 It has a component due to the thermal expansion of the ocean, 261 00:28:06,810 --> 00:28:12,690 due to mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mass loss from the land glaciers as well, 262 00:28:12,690 --> 00:28:17,760 which is substantial and also from the amount of water which is in the atmosphere or in groundwater. 263 00:28:18,060 --> 00:28:20,969 And one could even see and if we look at this diagram, 264 00:28:20,970 --> 00:28:30,540 it's a rather nice diagram which shows the correlation between El Nino events in the Pacific with land, water, groundwater storage and on land. 265 00:28:30,540 --> 00:28:40,410 So what you're seeing here is the Time series going from 1997 through to 2012, and it's essentially a line drawn across the equator from west to east. 266 00:28:40,590 --> 00:28:43,380 Yeah. And what happens to that line is in time. 267 00:28:44,100 --> 00:28:53,790 So in 1998 we had the big El Nino event, which we're seen here, and that is correlated with a great deal of land water storage in the Amazon basin. 268 00:28:53,790 --> 00:28:57,330 So we see an increase in land water then. 269 00:28:57,630 --> 00:29:05,430 And similarly when we have the ninos we do of presence and have had for the last seven or eight years of being a series of ninos, 270 00:29:05,910 --> 00:29:09,710 these are related to increase land water storage in Australia. 271 00:29:09,750 --> 00:29:14,790 You have a decrease here or an increase here and that consequence of that increased land water storage, 272 00:29:14,790 --> 00:29:22,170 particularly in the southern hemisphere, is what gave rise, if we remember to that dip in sea level in 2010 11. 273 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:29,760 This is caused by caused by the fact that we had so much water being stored on the land that it was taken out of the ocean. 274 00:29:30,330 --> 00:29:38,430 So the amounts of water which are transported are so large that you actually see it in the decrease of the global sea level rise. 275 00:29:39,690 --> 00:29:43,290 So these effects are extraordinarily powerful and really you hold them. 276 00:29:43,290 --> 00:29:46,800 The due process is one that governs much of much of global climate. 277 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,040 It's also related to CO2 anomalies in the atmosphere as well. 278 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,910 And this is just to show that everything is linked to everything else. 279 00:29:54,330 --> 00:29:59,670 So when you have El Nino years, then you have an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. 280 00:29:59,940 --> 00:30:02,220 When you have flooding you, yes, you have a decrease. 281 00:30:02,610 --> 00:30:07,019 It's to do with the fact you've got more vegetation in the northern hemisphere absorbing more CO2. 282 00:30:07,020 --> 00:30:16,900 When you have a La Nina, have the other CCI components also measured a number of different other parameters about the the earth and the ECB. 283 00:30:16,980 --> 00:30:24,420 So glacier inventories which are measured either by direct measurements of the two dimensional spread or by looking at the altimetry, 284 00:30:24,420 --> 00:30:27,989 by measuring the topography directly, 285 00:30:27,990 --> 00:30:32,520 using the digital elevation model, or by looking at displacement vectors, in other words, 286 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:36,569 seeing where the edge of the tail, the time of the glacier, and how is it progressing? 287 00:30:36,570 --> 00:30:40,559 Time So these are all different methods of doing that. For the first time. 288 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:48,480 We're now able after the CCI to be able to measure all 170,000 glaciers within the range of glacier inventory, 289 00:30:49,170 --> 00:30:55,590 many of which have never been measured before. So we have a complete inventory now of all the land glaciers worldwide and they 290 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,280 are a significant contribution to sea level rise comes from land glaciers. 291 00:30:59,850 --> 00:31:02,880 They are extraordinarily important. So in a very large fraction, 292 00:31:03,300 --> 00:31:14,120 over half the world's population is fed by water and based from on glaciers from the Himalayas and other high altitude areas and C and Arctic sea ice. 293 00:31:14,130 --> 00:31:18,660 I'm sure you all very familiar with the expansion and contraction over the years of 294 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,340 Arctic sea ice and the general decrease that we've seen over the last 30 years or so. 295 00:31:24,270 --> 00:31:30,780 And this is another way of looking at it, which is quite nice. This comes from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre website. 296 00:31:31,130 --> 00:31:36,870 And what you see here is the annual decrease going from January through to December. 297 00:31:37,170 --> 00:31:44,610 So you have northern winter and then the minimum comes in early September and then starts to increase again towards the towards the winter. 298 00:31:45,150 --> 00:31:52,270 So the solid line in the. Middle. Yeah, is the average over 30 years between 1980 and 2010. 299 00:31:52,270 --> 00:31:58,990 So that's the average cycle of the extent of sea ice in terms of square kilometre or millions of square kilometres. 300 00:31:59,530 --> 00:32:08,170 And the grey area is plus or minus two sigma on that. And what I've done here is to highlight the last ten years worth of those of cycles. 301 00:32:08,770 --> 00:32:14,740 And the minimum was the minimum minimum was in 2012, 2007, also in 2006. 302 00:32:15,610 --> 00:32:24,820 But what you see is that the last ten years have all been well below the average and well outside the two sigma band four for most of those years. 303 00:32:25,150 --> 00:32:32,950 And this is 2015 here which stops in May that so this is again, it's pretty well off the bottom. 304 00:32:33,580 --> 00:32:39,340 So what we're seeing is this is this is zero floating sea ice in the Arctic. 305 00:32:39,850 --> 00:32:48,850 And if we look at the trend of when this is likely, this continues to decrease and decrease, then we're looking at an ice free Arctic sometime around. 306 00:32:49,930 --> 00:32:54,639 Well, originally people thought the middle of this century, but it's likely to be rather fast than that. 307 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:58,090 So sometime after 2030, that has lots of consequences. 308 00:32:59,500 --> 00:33:01,840 Physical consequences changes the albedo, 309 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:08,919 the amount of energy which is reflected back into the back into the atmosphere and back into space from the Arctic 310 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:15,969 regions is clearly extremely different if you have very bright sea ice when albedo 4.8 or something of open water, 311 00:33:15,970 --> 00:33:23,290 which has no idea about oh point nought 50.1. So it has enormous physical effects, but it has lots of social effects as well. 312 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,260 And this is the using satellite. Airborne satellite, yes. 313 00:33:27,310 --> 00:33:29,950 Which is an automatic identification system for ships. 314 00:33:30,340 --> 00:33:38,890 This is the pattern of polar shipping traffic in the summer of 2014, 20 years ago, that would have been completely white in this area. 315 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:47,770 The first government using satellite data to navigate through the ice was done in 1992 with the the ship, 316 00:33:47,770 --> 00:33:55,240 the astrolabe, which was fed with data from here us one. But these are a few explorers tracks and so on across the actual pole. 317 00:33:55,570 --> 00:34:05,440 But most of this is commercial shipping now, which is able to cut something like this 50 or 60% of its distance between, well, say, London, 318 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:09,340 Rotterdam and Yokohama or whatever, by going across the north eastern passage, 319 00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:13,180 well through the Northwest Passage, rather than having to go all the way around. 320 00:34:13,540 --> 00:34:21,790 Okay, they can't get through the Suez Canal. So it has lots of effects in terms of in terms of society as well. 321 00:34:21,790 --> 00:34:24,220 And of course, this is opening up exploration. 322 00:34:24,910 --> 00:34:33,130 The area in Greenland now is the Chinese are building airstrips up here and giving all sorts of wonderful things to the local Greenland population. 323 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:41,410 And Greenland is becoming much more valuable as a source of rare earth elements in particular than it was in the past. 324 00:34:41,410 --> 00:34:48,250 And this is clearly going to have the Barents Sea up here is one of the most important areas for potential hydrocarbon exploration in the world. 325 00:34:49,450 --> 00:34:54,839 And everybody is now fighting and trying to plant their flag at the bottom of the North Pole, 326 00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,330 as you remember, perhaps two years ago, a Russian submarine. 327 00:34:59,260 --> 00:35:07,540 So that's going to be fine as well. And it was interesting that I had a quote from the American admiral who is responsible for the Pacific fleet, 328 00:35:08,500 --> 00:35:11,920 who regarded the biggest threat to peace in the Pacific, 329 00:35:12,190 --> 00:35:17,409 not the fact that China was building for the first time ever, a deep water fleet, deep water navy. 330 00:35:17,410 --> 00:35:25,690 It's never had before. It's not building one. He didn't regard that as a bigger threat as climate change in the Arctic to security in the Pacific, 331 00:35:28,330 --> 00:35:33,520 though I've talked up until now about the CCI and the OECD and the fact that they were essentially there to, 332 00:35:34,030 --> 00:35:38,109 uh, understand, model and predict what's going on in climate. 333 00:35:38,110 --> 00:35:44,230 But also there are aspects of satellite data which are important for mitigation and adaptation. 334 00:35:45,010 --> 00:35:50,020 One aspect of mitigation is REDD reduced emission from deforestation and forest degradation. 335 00:35:50,350 --> 00:35:56,110 And this is a scheme whereby some rich countries pay countries with forests not to chop that forest down. 336 00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:00,850 And so one program which I've been involved with is something called the Global Forest Observation Initiative, 337 00:36:01,210 --> 00:36:09,520 and this is a program which helps provide satellite observations along with the necessary technologies and expertise, 338 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:19,240 skills, algorithms and so on to countries who are developing their national monitoring, reporting inventory systems for payments on the road. 339 00:36:19,330 --> 00:36:25,770 So basically, if they don't cut their forests down, then rich countries pay them the equivalent income that they would have had. 340 00:36:26,710 --> 00:36:30,250 And so this is an important use of satellite data. 341 00:36:30,250 --> 00:36:33,459 It's using 2013 and 2014. 342 00:36:33,460 --> 00:36:38,110 This is the coverage that we've been getting of all the tropical forest countries in that time. 343 00:36:38,740 --> 00:36:42,700 It's been running now for seven or eight years. So we provide data. 344 00:36:42,700 --> 00:36:46,210 We provide method and guidance approved by the World Bank. 345 00:36:46,730 --> 00:36:52,820 By the unofficial policy, by the IPCC Inventories Bureau, etc. So it's a highly political activity as well as a technical one, 346 00:36:53,330 --> 00:37:01,790 capacity building and then delivery of the systems through Food and Agricultural Organisation, Clinton Foundation, World Bank and others. 347 00:37:04,130 --> 00:37:09,740 So just the sorts of things you can do is this is an example of what you can do from satellites with forests. 348 00:37:09,740 --> 00:37:14,980 So this is using data from L band 20 centimetre radar. 349 00:37:14,990 --> 00:37:20,090 So looking at this is a map in Kamchatka and actually in eastern eastern Siberia and this 350 00:37:20,090 --> 00:37:24,950 is a map of coherence and that can be translated into a map of forest and forest change. 351 00:37:24,950 --> 00:37:28,490 And if we look at this little area up here, it's blown up over here. 352 00:37:28,820 --> 00:37:32,240 You can see what you have here is areas which are forest, which are still forest. 353 00:37:33,500 --> 00:37:39,260 These are areas which have never been forest. These are areas which have been cut down and these are areas of regrowth. 354 00:37:39,770 --> 00:37:45,230 And it's if you all you want to do is to measure forest change, then you can do that pretty easily from space. 355 00:37:46,130 --> 00:37:53,780 We're hoping with a project called Biomass, which will launch for a much longer wavelength than 80 centimetre wavelength radar in 2020, 356 00:37:54,620 --> 00:37:58,399 to be able to model much more precisely the structure of the canopy and to get a much more 357 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:03,020 direct assessment of the standing biomass than simply by looking at forest and non forest. 358 00:38:03,770 --> 00:38:08,659 So that's a project which is being led by Sean Quiggin from Sheffield University. 359 00:38:08,660 --> 00:38:14,030 He's the principal investigator for it. Another nice example of what you can do, 360 00:38:14,060 --> 00:38:23,719 and this is something that Barry knows all about this using Interferometric data for monitoring manmade infrastructures and in this case, 361 00:38:23,720 --> 00:38:25,550 the the [INAUDIBLE] in the Netherlands. 362 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:33,230 So in 1953, this is an example of a devastating event which occurred on the East Coast of England and also in the Netherlands, 363 00:38:33,650 --> 00:38:43,700 a combination of weather and tides. So that was a serious, very serious flooding caused by a number of different techniques, 364 00:38:43,700 --> 00:38:47,120 if you like, over here on the right, as a result of which we have. 365 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:56,479 The [INAUDIBLE] system in the Netherlands was very much reinforced. And this is what you have there now in this 170,000 kilometres of water barriers. 366 00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,570 So very difficult to measure to routinely monitor. 367 00:38:59,570 --> 00:39:01,280 So this but it can be done from space. 368 00:39:01,790 --> 00:39:10,939 And so this is taking a series of radar interferometric images and using a technique called point source in Sampson. 369 00:39:10,940 --> 00:39:16,040 So you can measure the very small displacements on these [INAUDIBLE] in time. 370 00:39:16,340 --> 00:39:19,310 And we're talking about displacements of a few millimetres a year, 371 00:39:19,970 --> 00:39:25,700 but you can do that over a period of ten years and you can do it for every point along the [INAUDIBLE] system. 372 00:39:25,700 --> 00:39:29,929 So this gives you the sort of information that you could get from local satellite mapping, 373 00:39:29,930 --> 00:39:33,229 but you're getting it for 100 kilometres per 100 kilometres at a time. 374 00:39:33,230 --> 00:39:34,790 So it's a very cost effective way of doing it. 375 00:39:35,420 --> 00:39:40,549 And based on this information and based on predictions of climate change, the Netherlands, the it's very interesting. 376 00:39:40,550 --> 00:39:42,080 The Royal Rights Volunteer Stop, 377 00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:50,209 the Royal Water Management Organisation has changed their policy for the way they manage [INAUDIBLE] for the next hundred years and 378 00:39:50,210 --> 00:39:57,890 they've invested an extra €50 billion in raising their [INAUDIBLE] by an extra metre above what they had planned to do 20 years ago. 379 00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:05,810 So the results of predictions of climate and this sort of information has had a massive effect on the way that the Netherlands invests. 380 00:40:05,810 --> 00:40:09,200 And it's why somebody once said there's no such thing as land in the Netherlands. 381 00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:13,340 It's just dehydrated sea. And this is a way of keeping it dehydrated. 382 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:21,110 So where are we? That's some examples of where of what we've been able to do with satellite data from in Eastern and elsewhere. 383 00:40:21,650 --> 00:40:25,760 And this is just an overview of the overall ISA program at present. 384 00:40:26,210 --> 00:40:30,980 So we started off back in the 1970s with the very first video set, minutes at one. 385 00:40:31,460 --> 00:40:35,030 Then we had the US one in the US too, and then that. 386 00:40:35,690 --> 00:40:42,649 But at the same time we've now this was when we developed the concept of the envelope program in ISA, 387 00:40:42,650 --> 00:40:47,930 which would allow a much more coherent future planning for future missions. 388 00:40:48,230 --> 00:40:51,830 And this has evolved into three main families of missions now. 389 00:40:51,830 --> 00:40:55,129 So we have the research missions. So I talked about biomass. 390 00:40:55,130 --> 00:41:02,780 This is the P band Radar. We have Earth Care and Illness, which are both atmospheric missions which will fly in the next few years. 391 00:41:04,070 --> 00:41:12,620 We also have a much more sophisticated range of missions now being flown in conjunction with the US, sent back from the original media site. 392 00:41:12,650 --> 00:41:18,830 One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. She took us up to about 2002, the second generation of Mediasite, 393 00:41:18,830 --> 00:41:23,540 and we were in the middle of those now about to launch the fourth, the fourth in that series. 394 00:41:24,380 --> 00:41:29,240 And we're now developing the third generation images of video set for geostationary orbit. 395 00:41:29,750 --> 00:41:34,610 This will take us out to around 20, 2040, 2035, 2040. 396 00:41:35,150 --> 00:41:42,290 We also have developed polar orbiting which vertical satellites for the first time we've met up in 2004 I think it was. 397 00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:46,160 And that's we're now developing the second generation of those which are. 398 00:41:46,250 --> 00:41:54,470 Take us out again to 2035. Perhaps even more importantly or dramatically has been the advent of the so-called Sentinel series, 399 00:41:54,950 --> 00:42:01,820 and these came from the agreement with the European Union to provide long term commitment to environmental monitoring from space. 400 00:42:02,240 --> 00:42:05,390 So they evolved from essentially the research missions from back here. 401 00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:12,260 And we now have a total of six different series of central emissions for missions and each. 402 00:42:12,260 --> 00:42:20,209 So Sentinel one A-1, b1c, one DS. We have guaranteed repeat delivery of in-space campaign capability with all of these to 403 00:42:20,210 --> 00:42:25,100 give us again 30 years worth of guaranteed monitoring of the environment from space. 404 00:42:25,910 --> 00:42:32,150 This is really an extraordinary achievement, I think, to persuade the European Union to spend about €8 billion on this. 405 00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:40,820 And we continue to build the experimental research innovation missions over here as part of the budget. 406 00:42:41,780 --> 00:42:47,540 So we've gone from the old every five years to this whole range of different missions now. 407 00:42:47,540 --> 00:42:50,450 It's been a tremendous success in the last 25 years or so. 408 00:42:51,410 --> 00:42:57,560 So coming back to looking back at the Earth and this is a bit more speculative and coming back to the idea of of communication. 409 00:42:57,660 --> 00:43:01,240 I've been working with these two guys over here, David Victor and Charles. 410 00:43:01,250 --> 00:43:09,590 Colonel Charles kind of used to be the director of Earth Observation NASA now and then he was director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 411 00:43:09,710 --> 00:43:16,010 The higher David Victor is they're looking at know we have this vacuum in the public debate at present. 412 00:43:16,010 --> 00:43:20,419 And the discussion this morning actually was quite interesting with Keyshawn talking about what's 413 00:43:20,420 --> 00:43:25,370 happening with the hiatus and the poor old public is being presented with this one number. 414 00:43:25,370 --> 00:43:27,620 And it's a bit, like I said before, 415 00:43:27,650 --> 00:43:36,110 you stick a thermometer in the bowels of the earth and you're supposed to be able to tell from that whether it's got athlete's foot nor lung cancer. 416 00:43:36,530 --> 00:43:41,299 And it's not enough. And we need to have a much better, if only for the purposes of communication. 417 00:43:41,300 --> 00:43:45,140 We need to have a much better way of describing what's going on in the Earth system. 418 00:43:45,500 --> 00:43:49,520 Now we've got 50 CVS, which are great at what the scientists need. 419 00:43:49,550 --> 00:43:54,650 They are rather specific technical parameters that needed to understand what's happening in the Earth system. 420 00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:55,909 They're very good. 421 00:43:55,910 --> 00:44:04,010 Some of them are quite straightforward, like sea level rise and quite easily understood, but others are extremely abstruse and complex. 422 00:44:04,010 --> 00:44:09,950 And you need to have five pages of text of note to understand, to explain why they're important. 423 00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:15,649 So I think we need to think about some other indicators, some vital signs, the things that you can look at. 424 00:44:15,650 --> 00:44:19,820 If the Earth were a patient in the hospital bed, what would be on the floor of their bed? 425 00:44:20,250 --> 00:44:26,629 Wouldn't be their blood. It's blood pressure, it's temperature. But you would like to see something which gave you a quick snapshot about what's 426 00:44:26,630 --> 00:44:29,750 the state of the earth in order to make people understand what's going on. 427 00:44:29,810 --> 00:44:34,910 They're completely confused about the idea of whether there is a temperature rise or not. 428 00:44:36,230 --> 00:44:40,830 Even scientists this morning we were unable to explain in simple words what that meant. 429 00:44:40,850 --> 00:44:47,209 We saw that happening just this morning. And so we need to I think I think and this is something as I said, 430 00:44:47,210 --> 00:44:53,300 I was in Geneva this week and I happened to bump into the guy who's the director of communications for the IPCC, 431 00:44:53,930 --> 00:44:55,400 and I started talking to him about this. 432 00:44:55,550 --> 00:45:00,980 It's very interesting because the IPCC has just realised that they really need to communicate what they're doing better. 433 00:45:00,980 --> 00:45:04,850 So they're opening up a workshop and having a seminar to think about ideas for the future, 434 00:45:05,300 --> 00:45:10,840 because really we're spectacularly bad at this fantastically by some believable barrier. 435 00:45:11,240 --> 00:45:17,840 I don't understand why. Because scientists are not incoherent. They're not bad communicators per say when some are, but some are not. 436 00:45:18,290 --> 00:45:19,999 There's no reason why we should be so bad at it. 437 00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:25,760 And yet we've still failed to get over the message that something is happening this earth, and it's not a matter of opinion. 438 00:45:26,720 --> 00:45:31,850 So we need a better communication. We need a better dialogue. The 50 kvs are too complicated. 439 00:45:31,850 --> 00:45:39,590 There's too many of them. I don't understand. Half of them just taking one number is simplistic and misleading, 440 00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:43,820 and you end up having lots of arguments with people about whether it's happening or not. 441 00:45:44,090 --> 00:45:47,720 So I think we need to find half a dozen or something like that. 442 00:45:48,050 --> 00:45:51,410 Key parameters which would show what's happening to the Earth's system, 443 00:45:51,410 --> 00:45:56,150 which would be easily understood long term measurements, reliable, non-controversial, objective. 444 00:45:57,110 --> 00:46:00,679 You know, I don't know whether you can ever tell politicians anything they don't want to hear, 445 00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:05,270 but at least they have less excuse for ignoring it if we gave them better information. 446 00:46:06,050 --> 00:46:08,030 And as I say, this isn't an all original idea. 447 00:46:08,030 --> 00:46:16,610 If you go to actually the best web pages, the NOA web page for climate talks, which has a very nice suite of these things on it. 448 00:46:16,970 --> 00:46:21,820 But again, it's a bit like the argument about these TVs. 20 years ago, there wasn't one list of OECD. 449 00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:28,070 Everybody had their own pet list, which was defined differently. What we need is to have a more coherent approach to doing this. 450 00:46:29,060 --> 00:46:35,140 And so this is my list, which is not very original. So you surface temperature because you can't get away from that. 451 00:46:35,150 --> 00:46:41,930 We've been talking to people about it for 30 years. If we stop now, then we'll just be accused of picking winners. 452 00:46:42,590 --> 00:46:46,120 You can't ignore atmospheric CO2. That's what it's all about in the first system. 453 00:46:47,010 --> 00:46:52,860 Ocean Health. He content is probably the most important and I'll say something about that in a minute. 454 00:46:52,860 --> 00:47:00,450 That's my favourite sea level is sea level rise is tremendous because it's an integration of many different aspects of climate change, 455 00:47:01,290 --> 00:47:06,030 the oceans warming, mass loss, rise from the from glaciers and from the ice sheets and so on. 456 00:47:06,210 --> 00:47:09,840 So all these things have the same effect in the same direction on sea level. 457 00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,930 So it's very good for that. Solar Irradiance total. 458 00:47:12,930 --> 00:47:17,760 Solar Irradiance because we need to demonstrate that that hasn't changed radically over this period, which it hasn't. 459 00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,590 Then you get the ones which are not so sure about stratospheric ozone. 460 00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:28,200 I'm not so sure that's some arguments as to whether this is a good contra indicator of climate change or not. 461 00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:31,590 But I think you're beginning to get a bit complicated that this is a nice one, 462 00:47:31,650 --> 00:47:37,530 the number of three sigma hydro meteorological events a year, because most of these things don't change on a daily basis. 463 00:47:37,530 --> 00:47:41,010 You don't wake up in the morning and look at the thing. So it's sea level still rising. 464 00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,550 Yesterday's and then tomorrow. Is it still rising? It's going to rise. 465 00:47:44,610 --> 00:47:52,769 You need to measure that once a year or demonstrate it once a year. But things like this, a number of three sigma, some number of major hurricanes, 466 00:47:52,770 --> 00:47:57,929 typhoons, flood events, that's something which changes on a weekly basis at least. 467 00:47:57,930 --> 00:48:01,860 And that's something that you could actually covers a consistent indicator. 468 00:48:02,100 --> 00:48:10,290 Then there are others. Ice sheet, mass balance. We've already seen land glaciers, so but we need to find some less that we can agree on. 469 00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:15,480 Now, the problem with surface temperature, this is taken from the call paper that they discussed this morning. 470 00:48:15,900 --> 00:48:20,459 And basically what he was saying is that this was the accepted view in the past, 471 00:48:20,460 --> 00:48:28,590 that if you look at what the IPCC was saying, then the rate of temperature increases has decreased between 1951 to 2012. 472 00:48:28,710 --> 00:48:33,230 So it's less now than it was then. If you look at the way these temperatures are calculated. 473 00:48:33,240 --> 00:48:38,100 And what Carl was saying this morning is that the if you look at the global mean that in fact, 474 00:48:38,550 --> 00:48:42,030 there's been no change in the rate of increase of temperature over the last 70 years. 475 00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,850 And in fact, it's slightly, very slightly accelerating. 476 00:48:45,300 --> 00:48:51,630 So if you look over the last 15 years, this apparent hiatus in surface temperature increase is actually doesn't exist at all. 477 00:48:52,330 --> 00:48:57,390 It's all to do with the calibration of bucket measurements of surface temperature, sea temperature, 478 00:48:57,750 --> 00:49:04,200 coupled with measurements made on the inlet to exhaust manifolds, which is where most measurements of 89 ships. 479 00:49:04,740 --> 00:49:12,990 The difference between the calibration of body temperatures with ship temperatures and the distribution of of surface 480 00:49:12,990 --> 00:49:18,910 temperature measurements on the land into regions where we didn't have as many measurements in the past in Africa, 481 00:49:19,170 --> 00:49:25,140 Central Asia in particular. But this still doesn't take into account the fact we have a very badly distributed set of measurements. 482 00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:29,970 We have nothing, almost nothing of the Arctic, which is actually increasing the most rapidly of all. 483 00:49:30,420 --> 00:49:34,470 So there's a bias in here against increase in T already. 484 00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:40,259 So even though but you see this is an argument we still because we only have this one indicator 485 00:49:40,260 --> 00:49:44,190 this was suddenly big news this morning and there's a debate about it all over again. 486 00:49:44,220 --> 00:49:49,020 We need to have more than that. So I said my favourite was Ocean Heat Content. 487 00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:55,980 I'll just take a moment to explain why this is the most important diagram in the whole of the IPCC fifth assessment report. 488 00:49:56,430 --> 00:50:01,169 I managed now to persuade Thomas Stocker, who is the lead author, but it is as well. 489 00:50:01,170 --> 00:50:03,120 Now he uses it whenever he goes everywhere. 490 00:50:03,720 --> 00:50:11,370 This is the total energy system of the earth increasing over the last 50 years, sometimes called the ocean heat content. 491 00:50:11,910 --> 00:50:17,400 It's truly the earth system heat content. But because 95% of it is in the ocean, it's almost the same thing. 492 00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:22,530 So it's a number of things that you can see about this. First of all, it's increasing. 493 00:50:23,070 --> 00:50:25,110 Nothing is flattening off. Yeah, there's no hiatus. 494 00:50:25,620 --> 00:50:31,799 This is going you have a bit of a blip here with the El Nino event in 1998, but otherwise you have a nice, 495 00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:36,660 constant, monotonic, almost regular linear increase in the total energy system. 496 00:50:37,140 --> 00:50:41,310 So nothing stopping. This is also the content. 497 00:50:41,310 --> 00:50:45,600 This is the energy content. This is not a symptom of the energy content, which is surface temperature. 498 00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:52,950 This is what generates climate change. So it's the fundamental physics of what's going on in the system is what you see here. 499 00:50:53,970 --> 00:50:58,620 Okay, so the first thing is it's increasing. The second thing to notice is the error bars pretty small. 500 00:50:59,070 --> 00:51:04,200 There's no doubt about the fact it's increasing. The third thing to notice is the magnitude. 501 00:51:04,260 --> 00:51:09,570 Here. You see the increase over the last 50 years has been about 250, a bit more. 502 00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:15,420 Zeta-Jones Rosetta Joules is 10 to 21 joules. What does that mean? 503 00:51:15,750 --> 00:51:24,959 The total energy generated by mankind, by nuclear power, fossil fuels, renewables, transport, anything else is about half. 504 00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:31,710 Is that a Julia? In other words, the earth is warming up by ten times the amount of energy that mankind generates. 505 00:51:34,870 --> 00:51:38,290 And the next thing to understand about this sort of notice is where the energy is going. 506 00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:42,580 Most of it goes in the upper ocean between nought and 700 metres. 507 00:51:43,150 --> 00:51:49,440 That's that's what the upper ocean means. This is the ocean between 702,000 metres below 2000 metres. 508 00:51:49,450 --> 00:51:52,720 We don't really know what's going on because we have almost no measurements there. 509 00:51:53,140 --> 00:51:57,219 But probably any change there is going to be even slower than in the 2000 metre ocean. 510 00:51:57,220 --> 00:52:02,040 So probably not changing very much. This is so you can see that 90%, 511 00:52:02,050 --> 00:52:09,100 95% of the energy is going into warming up the ocean because that's where the interaction to the atmosphere and the system is easiest. 512 00:52:10,900 --> 00:52:14,560 Then the rest of it goes into the ice and cryosphere. 513 00:52:14,830 --> 00:52:17,940 So this is the heating of the ice sheets shelves. 514 00:52:18,790 --> 00:52:24,670 Then the bit goes into the land. Then down at the bottom, there's a bit. Just about the thickness of the pencil line is the atmosphere. 515 00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:30,580 And this is what we're using to tell everybody about how much climate is changing. 516 00:52:30,820 --> 00:52:34,170 You must be crazy. This is the last thing you use. 517 00:52:34,180 --> 00:52:40,390 It's a bit like seeing the top inch of a dog's tail walking past a window and somebody saying, Well, tell me what sort of dog that was. 518 00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:43,790 You've got almost no information on the atmosphere. 519 00:52:43,790 --> 00:52:50,950 And if you're using this as a key thing to discuss with the community, we should be using this diagram needs a bit of explanation. 520 00:52:51,550 --> 00:52:59,020 But it's it's also has the benefit of generating the physics of what's happening in climate, not being a consequence of it. 521 00:53:00,370 --> 00:53:05,080 So that's why I feel passionately about this diagram. It's the most interesting thing in the whole of our five. 522 00:53:05,950 --> 00:53:15,670 So I think I'll stop. There's just one thing I'd like to mention, and that's that we are about to launch a massively open online course on climate. 523 00:53:15,940 --> 00:53:24,670 It starts on June the eighth from Monday. It's been put together by I'm not sure who to a whole bunch of people this company Imperative Space. 524 00:53:25,750 --> 00:53:33,040 They've been doing the modules by all sorts of people, even people from Oxford, Matt Disney from UCL. 525 00:53:33,070 --> 00:53:39,970 Andrew Shepherd's the guy who talked about the ice sheets in Leeds. Angela Benedetti from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast. 526 00:53:41,050 --> 00:53:48,490 It's not just half dozen people, it's dozens and dozens and you can sign up for that at that website at the top here, 527 00:53:49,030 --> 00:53:53,980 or your students can sign up for it and you can take that and get a better understanding of what's going on. 528 00:53:54,100 --> 00:53:56,050 I think that's it. Okay. Thanks very much.