1 00:00:01,430 --> 00:00:08,150 These two gentlemen who are going to be speaking tonight have actually done serious, serious research on maritime and naval matters. 2 00:00:10,190 --> 00:00:19,070 Commodore Keith, was that commander facing what some have been the Hudson fellows at the program at Oxford University for this entire academic year. 3 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:24,920 So they have nine months for in-depth research into their projects and they are 4 00:00:25,130 --> 00:00:29,960 presenting the fruits of that research today in an exciting bubble presentation. 5 00:00:31,670 --> 00:00:39,560 We will begin with Commodore with Stanley to speak about the Indian Ocean, which as you can see is one of the largest. 6 00:00:40,160 --> 00:00:46,870 But he has travelled it in its entirety and most of all knows how to defend it. 7 00:00:48,090 --> 00:00:49,310 Yeah. Yeah. Thanks very much. 8 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:57,200 Whenever I speak to a military audience, I do so in the show knowledge that most of them are there with having no choice but of course, to go. 9 00:00:57,890 --> 00:01:06,650 For those of you who are non-military, I never cease to be pleasantly surprised when I talk to a civilian audience that anybody turns up at all. 10 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:14,240 So thank you from both of us. For those of you who have found or made the time to be here, I'm going to speak for about an hour between us, 11 00:01:14,900 --> 00:01:21,110 which is standard for these sort of Tuesday events and take questions at the end, 30 minutes or so. 12 00:01:21,110 --> 00:01:27,260 If I'm still talking in 40 minutes, I intend to just shut up and give the floor to Commander Vincent. 13 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,910 Okay. And I'll introduce the Indian Ocean in a bit more detail in a minute. 14 00:01:32,270 --> 00:01:37,700 But the national security strategy, a strong Britain in an age of uncertainty, 15 00:01:37,700 --> 00:01:45,950 was signed off jointly by the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister in October 2010, including the ABC's. 16 00:01:46,340 --> 00:01:55,040 It's 37 pages long and you can access it or even buy it online for those of you who have not had the opportunity to read it. 17 00:01:55,430 --> 00:02:09,620 I will save you the £14.75 that it costs and tell you that amongst many things it mentions the intercontinental reach of our time zone. 18 00:02:10,010 --> 00:02:16,610 It mentions the global force of our language, talks about the ingenuity of our people, 19 00:02:16,940 --> 00:02:21,950 and that our political, economic and cultural authority far exceeds our size. 20 00:02:22,670 --> 00:02:27,560 Interestingly, it contains no definition of what is meant by security. 21 00:02:28,020 --> 00:02:35,270 Rather more alarmingly, if you're a sailor or you live on an island, it contains no mention of maritime security at all. 22 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:42,890 What it does say is that a strategy is of little value without the tools to implement it. 23 00:02:43,670 --> 00:02:48,350 It does say that the National Security Council has reached a clear conclusion that Britain's 24 00:02:48,350 --> 00:02:54,380 national interest requires us to reject any notion of the shrinkage of our influence. 25 00:02:55,190 --> 00:03:04,820 It mentions that we benefit from and must continue to exploit a wide range of alliances and partnerships through which we achieve collective security. 26 00:03:05,030 --> 00:03:14,450 It talks about globalisation and the interconnectivity of technology, travel, migration and the trade in goods, security and capital. 27 00:03:14,870 --> 00:03:24,230 It specifically comments on how much harder it is to isolate the UK from shelves outside our own territory. 28 00:03:25,820 --> 00:03:29,250 Disruption of oil and gas supplies to the UK. 29 00:03:29,270 --> 00:03:37,610 Oil price instability and short to medium term disruption to international supplies of other resources. 30 00:03:38,180 --> 00:03:48,650 Both make the list of national security strategy priority risks excluding the United Kingdom and the United States of America. 31 00:03:49,400 --> 00:04:01,280 Seven other countries or in specific mention in the National Security Strategy, some of them more than once, and all of them feature on this slide. 32 00:04:02,270 --> 00:04:10,309 So what do I mean when I talk about maritime security? There are a number of complementary but subtly different definitions in existence. 33 00:04:10,310 --> 00:04:16,790 From a UK perspective, it can be defined as joint activity and I think that is significant. 34 00:04:16,790 --> 00:04:22,620 That's important. There is a maritime security as purely the affair of navies are long gone. 35 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:31,430 So joint activity coordinated with other government departments and international partners to deter and prevent illegal acts, 36 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,880 to contribute to the vision of a safe maritime environment. 37 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:43,850 And hence, in keeping with the statement in the National Security Strategy, reduce harm to the UK by tackling threats at arm's length. 38 00:04:44,420 --> 00:04:53,030 Maritime security operations cry out for collaboration, shared information, team efforts and a comprehensive approach. 39 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:58,670 This approach must be multinational, across governmental and interagency. 40 00:04:59,030 --> 00:05:03,750 It must leverage the experience. Skills, knowledge and resources of navies. 41 00:05:04,110 --> 00:05:11,670 Big and small. Coast Guard Air Forces. The offshore industry is not just oil and gas fishing agencies, 42 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:20,760 Houlton Harbour authorities and the full spectrum of commercial maritime shipping interests and companies both afloat and ashore. 43 00:05:21,510 --> 00:05:30,870 Now, this is a recurring theme in my analysis, and I make no claims that this is either a new or new and unique concept. 44 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:39,210 Over 100 years ago, American Seapower theorist Alfred Salmon called the Sea the Great Highway. 45 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:48,990 He observed that the global trading system that used it was delicate and needed cooperation and collaboration to police properly. 46 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:55,050 In many ways, in my view, that system is even more delicate now than it was then. 47 00:05:55,410 --> 00:06:03,990 More recently, in 2006, Admiral Mike Mullen, then the chief of Naval Operations for the US Navy and later chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, 48 00:06:04,350 --> 00:06:07,350 called for the creation of what he called a thousand ship Navy. 49 00:06:08,280 --> 00:06:12,860 The idea behind the Thousand ship Navy was that navies and other uses of the sea, 50 00:06:12,870 --> 00:06:17,280 such as the shipping companies and such of the organisations I've just briefly touched on. 51 00:06:17,790 --> 00:06:27,430 Should, regardless of their capabilities or technical sophistication, work to promote global maritime security by closer cooperation and. 52 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:33,690 And and cooperating to confront common problems such as arms smuggling and terrorism. 53 00:06:33,900 --> 00:06:37,020 And obviously, that concept has wider applicability. 54 00:06:37,650 --> 00:06:44,280 It's also now referred to as Global Maritime Partnership, and it's actually been first outlined about a year before Mullen's statement. 55 00:06:44,790 --> 00:06:49,380 In an article published in Proceedings in which pirates, human traffickers, 56 00:06:49,770 --> 00:06:55,589 drug smugglers and other organised current criminals were identified as being amongst the transnational 57 00:06:55,590 --> 00:07:02,040 threats that the power of concerted states and maritime organisations should be harnessed to confront. 58 00:07:03,420 --> 00:07:09,480 Now, what exactly does a ship, Navy or Global Maritime Partnership might mean in practice? 59 00:07:09,780 --> 00:07:18,269 Has been harder to determine and harder to deliver, partly because the US Navy has been at pains to stress the voluntary nature of any 60 00:07:18,270 --> 00:07:24,120 association and so has avoided explicit prescriptions of what it ought to cover. 61 00:07:24,300 --> 00:07:33,180 But in broad terms, the aim is to encourage information sharing to achieve a common awareness of the normal picture, 62 00:07:33,510 --> 00:07:43,739 and also to quantify, thereby quantify, help, quantify and and map illicit maritime activity at sea in order that maritime security assets, 63 00:07:43,740 --> 00:07:50,790 essentially ships and aircraft, may be positioned to deter such activity and disrupt such criminal and terrorist use. 64 00:07:50,790 --> 00:07:55,529 The sea now has most navies and certainly most regional navies and in the worst 65 00:07:55,530 --> 00:08:01,020 affected areas currently lack the capacity to act on such information effectively. 66 00:08:01,290 --> 00:08:06,510 The concept also extends to capacity building, and the suggestion has been made that major navies, 67 00:08:06,690 --> 00:08:11,010 the US Navy in particular, should provide support and assistance in that context. 68 00:08:12,090 --> 00:08:13,079 By my experience, 69 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:20,790 this has met with a mixed reception as although the US Navy has been at pains to emphasise its awareness of other nations sovereignty, 70 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:27,870 it has nevertheless met with accusations of playing what one commentator has called Globo Cop in the maritime arena. 71 00:08:28,710 --> 00:08:36,510 Global Maritime Partnership is a promising but as yet largely unrealised element of a security regime that is faced with the problems 72 00:08:36,510 --> 00:08:45,630 of maritime disorder that is growing rapidly as all kinds of exploitation of the sea intensify and illicit activity keeps pace. 73 00:08:46,620 --> 00:08:52,199 In this context, those who argue that the overall security of the maritime world can be ensured by 74 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:58,740 multilateral treaties or regimes in anything other than a limited or temporary sense. 75 00:08:59,010 --> 00:09:03,839 Without the leadership of a power such as the United States have, in my view, 76 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:10,200 scant evidence on which to base their faith in sharing in the sharing of information. 77 00:09:10,680 --> 00:09:19,320 This information sharing must overcome cultural differences, technological difficulties, and even in some instances, commercial self-interest. 78 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:23,430 For some, this will be outside their comfort zones. 79 00:09:23,850 --> 00:09:31,440 The question and challenge behind this issue is are we intellectually and culturally equipped and prepared for such transparencies? 80 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:38,370 Do our organisations or institutions, and even down to our muse support this? 81 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,540 Now, before I talk about the importance of the Indian Ocean, 82 00:09:43,170 --> 00:09:48,430 let me first define it in both for the purposes of the presentation, indeed in the context of my paper. 83 00:09:48,450 --> 00:09:52,580 As an observer noticed, it's a Bay Area. 84 00:09:52,590 --> 00:09:56,340 It's actually according to the International Maritime Organisation. 85 00:09:57,090 --> 00:10:00,540 Bigger than that, the boundary with the Pacific. 86 00:10:00,610 --> 00:10:12,900 For example, it comes south of Tasmania, the band of the Atlantic, south of South Africa and the northernmost pair area in Appals, 87 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:19,389 credited by the I.R.A. as being part of the Indian Ocean, is in fact Iranian. 88 00:10:19,390 --> 00:10:28,980 And it's the Iranian port of Bandera, Imam Khomeini, which is actually just off the slide at the very northern end of the Persian or Arabian Gulf. 89 00:10:28,990 --> 00:10:35,830 So the purposes for the purposes of the International Maritime Organisation, the Indian Ocean contains everything on that slide, 90 00:10:36,250 --> 00:10:40,540 plus a bit more and plus what most of you will have understood to be the Persian and Arabian Gulf. 91 00:10:42,490 --> 00:10:49,660 Now, pressures on the sea in general and worldwide have been mounting steadily since the end of the Cold War. 92 00:10:50,110 --> 00:10:58,749 And since that period, the incidence of piracy has increased both the transportation of legitimate goods and the smuggling of drugs, 93 00:10:58,750 --> 00:11:06,460 arms, natural resources, slaves and other illegal migrants by sea has increased substantially, 94 00:11:06,820 --> 00:11:12,460 and fish stocks at the same time have been depleted in some areas, almost to exhaustion. 95 00:11:13,060 --> 00:11:21,370 Exploration of the sea has now reached unprecedented levels, driven by the rapidly rising demand for resources and living space on land. 96 00:11:21,730 --> 00:11:24,850 Due to population growth and environmental degradation, 97 00:11:25,390 --> 00:11:29,920 states and corporations are turning to the sea more than ever before for energy in the form 98 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:35,410 of offshore oil and gas and structures that are capturing or tidal power and for minerals, 99 00:11:35,770 --> 00:11:39,280 drinking water distilled from the sea and even waste disposal. 100 00:11:39,820 --> 00:11:48,280 The sea is also being exploited more than ever before for food, both from increasingly depleted fish stocks and from fish farmed in sheltered waters. 101 00:11:49,330 --> 00:11:56,680 Added to these pressures is the exploitation of coastal areas by the wealthy portion of the world's population for tourism and leisure, 102 00:11:56,980 --> 00:12:02,590 including the building of structures such as the Palms, the Palm Island developments of Dubai. 103 00:12:03,220 --> 00:12:10,450 This is a trend that is likely to continue as the proportion of the world's population able to afford such privileges grows. 104 00:12:11,230 --> 00:12:18,040 Greater economic activity will create more targets for maritime crime and terrorism in the commercial sphere. 105 00:12:18,190 --> 00:12:26,020 As the trend for using fewer and larger cargo ships in a smaller number of giant ports continues. 106 00:12:26,380 --> 00:12:34,630 While a number of strategic choke points obviously remains the same and the quantity of goods in transit grows, 107 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:43,540 the opportunities for successful criminal interdiction will increase, a sea movements intensify, and coastal activity increases. 108 00:12:43,900 --> 00:12:49,060 Climate change is likely simultaneously to cause the sea to encroach upon the land. 109 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:55,030 These opposing pressures mean that the sea will become more contested, not less, in the future. 110 00:12:55,810 --> 00:13:01,000 Resource depletion and the loss of productive land to environmental damage will increase. 111 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:07,570 The economic and political pressures on the littoral regions and may well make may well make conflict more likely. 112 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:13,330 Currently, international law, in the form of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, 113 00:13:13,750 --> 00:13:19,720 sets the limits of territorial seas and determine the rights of states within exclusive economic zones, 114 00:13:20,140 --> 00:13:23,620 thereby imposing some degree of order on coastal regions. 115 00:13:24,230 --> 00:13:31,180 BUNKHOUSE was the product of a compromise between the often conflicting interests of coastal states and maritime powers. 116 00:13:31,390 --> 00:13:33,250 And there is a danger that in the future, 117 00:13:33,490 --> 00:13:40,660 political pressures exerted by sea with migration and rising sea levels and the attendant environmental and security 118 00:13:40,660 --> 00:13:48,370 concerns could create rifts between states such that Anglos is able to exert less and less force in practice, 119 00:13:48,850 --> 00:13:52,089 perhaps even to the point of fracture. Now, 120 00:13:52,090 --> 00:13:58,810 this context of an increasingly pressurised and potentially semi lawless and somewhat chaotic environment 121 00:13:59,260 --> 00:14:04,450 is the one in which possible developments in maritime criminality and terror must be must be assessed. 122 00:14:05,140 --> 00:14:09,580 Upward trends in population and economic activity and resulting rising demand 123 00:14:09,580 --> 00:14:14,469 for marine resources could aggravate three kinds of threat and vulnerability, 124 00:14:14,470 --> 00:14:18,520 in particular criminality and criminal terrorist cooperation. 125 00:14:19,180 --> 00:14:24,100 Weaknesses in the international trade system and the threat of maritime insurgency. 126 00:14:25,150 --> 00:14:30,729 In simple terms, you can think of the Indian Ocean is a driven geographical region where one third 127 00:14:30,730 --> 00:14:35,410 of the world's population lives in the 36 states across its rim or around its rim, 128 00:14:35,860 --> 00:14:42,309 interacting as neighbours and sometimes competitors outside powers pass through for economic and strategic 129 00:14:42,310 --> 00:14:49,330 purposes and resources vital to international trade and environmental stability must be managed and protected. 130 00:14:49,810 --> 00:14:55,330 The global quest for energy security, coupled with the continuing rise of Asian economies, 131 00:14:55,600 --> 00:15:00,220 have made this region even more critical for the stability of the international system system. 132 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,210 Population settlements with within. 133 00:15:04,420 --> 00:15:12,610 Virtually all countries in the world that have maritime access are often more concentrated in the coastal areas rather than the interior. 134 00:15:12,850 --> 00:15:18,730 And the Indian Ocean is no exception. Given the significant proportion of the world's population that live within it, 135 00:15:19,030 --> 00:15:27,490 and the fact that almost 40% of the globe's total coastline is in this region, the significance of the Indian Ocean becomes more and more profound. 136 00:15:28,330 --> 00:15:37,390 90% of world trade by weight and volume and 80% as measured by value, is carried by seaborne commerce. 137 00:15:37,990 --> 00:15:43,990 Globalisation may be seen as a significant demand factor in the rapid expansion of maritime commerce, 138 00:15:44,260 --> 00:15:49,480 but it is also it has been enabled and facilitated by these same developments. 139 00:15:49,750 --> 00:15:55,480 Increasingly sophisticated means for transporting large cargoes such as containerisation, 140 00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:01,300 or increasingly large vessels for specialised transport of liquid and dry cargoes in bulk. 141 00:16:01,780 --> 00:16:05,590 That has transformed the speed and efficiency of maritime commerce. 142 00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:13,270 It has. This has made possible the development of globally distributed supply chains and production processes, 143 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:18,670 and thus the efficient allocation of comparative advantage for the production of food, 144 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,450 other agricultural commodities, minerals and even finished goods. 145 00:16:22,690 --> 00:16:31,270 Investments in large specialised ships and in high speed cargo handling systems introduced economies of scale that made the cost per unit cheaper, 146 00:16:31,570 --> 00:16:36,040 even over a longer distance bus distances by sea than by land. 147 00:16:37,150 --> 00:16:44,350 This region represents a particularly heightened and concentrated form of the globalisation embodied in maritime commerce, 148 00:16:44,530 --> 00:16:50,410 witnessed it witnesses the transportation of a very significant proportion of the world seaborne trade. 149 00:16:50,770 --> 00:16:55,240 It simultaneously has a high concentration of the fastest growing economies in the world. 150 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,480 A high concentration. The most politically unstable. 151 00:16:59,380 --> 00:17:06,730 And a greater proportion of the Indian Ocean than any other ocean is occupied by significantly insular, 152 00:17:06,730 --> 00:17:13,330 insular nations, many with challenging population dynamics in terms of growth and age profiles. 153 00:17:14,020 --> 00:17:22,300 It's important to recognise or to emphasise that the Indian Ocean strategic economic value is linked primarily to global trade. 154 00:17:22,330 --> 00:17:26,320 Less than one quarter of its trade is amongst the states on the rim. 155 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,970 So arguably the world's most important trading crossroads. 156 00:17:31,300 --> 00:17:39,070 And this is married to the reality of globally significant deposits of primarily raw materials that are vital to the world's economy. 157 00:17:39,340 --> 00:17:42,850 Then I think the strategic importance of this maritime space becomes even clearer. 158 00:17:43,210 --> 00:17:45,940 The most obvious of those materials are obviously oil and gas, 159 00:17:46,360 --> 00:17:51,370 but the Indian Ocean and the Indian Ocean region also host a significant deposits of bauxite, 160 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:58,780 chromite, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, nickel, phosphates, titanium, tungsten, uranium and zinc. 161 00:17:59,260 --> 00:18:03,999 One fifth of the world's energy supply is now travelled across the Indian Ocean. 162 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:12,159 Largely, I have to say, from west to east, from the Persian Gulf to China, Japan and India in the reverse direction, 163 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:16,720 super ships carrying manufactured, manufactured goods from Asia to the Middle Eastern Europe. 164 00:18:17,170 --> 00:18:24,760 The majority of us in this room have unknowingly, I suspect, seen total seaborne trade more than quadruple in our lifetimes. 165 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:31,990 Singapore is the busiest container port in the world and is nearly one fifth of the world's container traffic. 166 00:18:32,500 --> 00:18:38,650 The independent linkages of shipping, ports and maritime trade across the Indian Ocean are expanding. 167 00:18:38,950 --> 00:18:48,160 And for example, the Port of Singapore Authority helps build and operate ports in Kuwait, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. 168 00:18:49,030 --> 00:18:53,440 Strategically, the region contains five of the world's global strategic choke points. 169 00:18:53,950 --> 00:18:59,620 Collectively and individually, they constitute a significant constraint on trade in the Indian Ocean, 170 00:19:00,070 --> 00:19:03,970 owing to the influence of particular countries upon them. 171 00:19:04,360 --> 00:19:09,549 Because of the existence of geopolitical tensions borne of physical proximity or 172 00:19:09,550 --> 00:19:15,190 competing interest in the freedom of navigation and due in part and in cases 173 00:19:15,430 --> 00:19:20,110 to the physical limitations on ships that can navigate some 33% of the bulk 174 00:19:20,110 --> 00:19:26,800 cargo and 66% of the containerised cargo of the world uses the Indian Ocean. 175 00:19:27,100 --> 00:19:32,290 There exists a huge Western dependence and a rapidly expanding Asian demand on 176 00:19:32,290 --> 00:19:37,990 energy supplies exiting the Gulf and this region via these strategic choke points. 177 00:19:38,410 --> 00:19:46,989 For example, with 60,000 shipping movements a year, 25% of all World Trade uses the Malacca Straits. 178 00:19:46,990 --> 00:19:52,180 That includes the transportation of 15 million barrels of oil per day. 179 00:19:52,390 --> 00:19:59,770 That's 18% of the global total. And 70% of China's oil imports go through the market straits. 180 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:09,920 MARTIN Communications routes see lines of communications narrow sees strategic strengths in economic zones, coastal seas, territorial waters, bays, 181 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:18,050 rivers and ports are all the very arteries that keep alive the economic well-being and security of every nation in this region and many outside it. 182 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:24,410 The sea itself, of course, is also an economic resource for fisheries to deep sea minerals, 183 00:20:24,980 --> 00:20:27,800 to the tourism that depends on tropical islands and coral reefs. 184 00:20:28,070 --> 00:20:33,920 The health of the maritime environment is essential to the sustainability of these economic activities. 185 00:20:34,130 --> 00:20:39,830 Yet the balance between resource exploitation for short term economic benefit and 186 00:20:39,830 --> 00:20:44,930 preservation of the maritime environment for long term value has not been achieved to date. 187 00:20:45,770 --> 00:20:49,980 Now the issues facing and in some instances threatening this region are complex. 188 00:20:49,990 --> 00:20:54,140 Some of them are obviously interrelated fishery and environmental concerns, for example, 189 00:20:54,320 --> 00:21:02,780 and some that seem unrelated and not such as the evolving role of great power navies in responding to human trafficking, piracy and drug smuggling. 190 00:21:03,170 --> 00:21:07,850 These interactions are not governed by well-established rules and protocols. 191 00:21:07,940 --> 00:21:08,630 The speed, 192 00:21:08,930 --> 00:21:17,600 transparency and economic consequences for diverse global interests have increased and thus merit new attention and cross-disciplinary analysis. 193 00:21:19,490 --> 00:21:28,430 The interactions therefore become increasingly pivotal also in the strategic calculus of outside economic, economic and political major powers. 194 00:21:29,390 --> 00:21:29,959 Furthermore, 195 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:37,670 the discernable acceleration of India and China's economic growth and the improvements at the beginning of the current century has unsurprisingly been 196 00:21:37,670 --> 00:21:42,110 matched by their drive to expand their military presence and power projection 197 00:21:42,110 --> 00:21:46,250 capabilities to ensure the integrity of their sea lines of communication. 198 00:21:47,120 --> 00:21:51,410 While there are a number of strategic trends that will impact on regional stability and security, 199 00:21:51,770 --> 00:21:58,130 a number of specific developments and threats manifest themselves significantly in the maritime environment 200 00:21:58,430 --> 00:22:03,080 and a force themselves on the attention of those concerned with security of maritime commerce. 201 00:22:03,710 --> 00:22:08,420 Potential conflict with Iran could be top of people some people's list, 202 00:22:08,660 --> 00:22:15,140 but I would add instability and insecurity in Somalia manifested by piracy and its effects throughout the western Indian Ocean. 203 00:22:15,650 --> 00:22:21,530 Human trafficking, most notably between Somalia and Yemen, but additionally between the Makran coast and Oman. 204 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,700 And narcotics trafficking. These are all cases in point. 205 00:22:25,910 --> 00:22:30,410 What becomes apparent is the scale of the problem and the diversity of the types of threat, 206 00:22:30,410 --> 00:22:36,320 not only in their nature, but also in their location, can only be addressed through wide scale cooperation. 207 00:22:36,740 --> 00:22:42,740 The multilateral approach to the conduct of maritime security in the Indian Ocean region involving small states, 208 00:22:43,010 --> 00:22:48,860 regional powers and extra regional major powers is a recurrent theme throughout this analysis. 209 00:22:52,070 --> 00:22:58,070 The Indian Ocean space is a broad spectrum of external security realities and potential concerns. 210 00:22:58,670 --> 00:23:02,780 These include critical criminal concerns that have already touched on illicit trafficking, 211 00:23:02,780 --> 00:23:06,650 narcotics, people, arms piracy and armed robbery at sea and terrorism. 212 00:23:07,250 --> 00:23:17,870 Insurgent and or terrorist activity within complex or weak and or failing or failed states and geopolitics, conflict and security in the Persian Gulf. 213 00:23:18,620 --> 00:23:23,330 In addition to those, my paper attempts to address the maritime security implications of piracy, 214 00:23:23,900 --> 00:23:28,790 maritime terrorism, maritime commerce, port technology and ownership. 215 00:23:29,210 --> 00:23:34,370 Regional actors, specifically the Chinese and the Indians in Somalia is a special case. 216 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,230 Maritime law on the Law of the Sea. International agreements and organisations. 217 00:23:39,740 --> 00:23:44,480 Naval Power. Knots. Deployments in the Indian Ocean. Trends in fleet size and composition. 218 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,870 Basing Power Projection. Roles of missions. 219 00:23:48,270 --> 00:23:52,370 I also cover non-energy related resources, notably minerals and fisheries. 220 00:23:52,760 --> 00:24:00,530 And finally, climate change and sea level. Clearly, I cannot and I'm not going to dwell on all of these in any great detail. 221 00:24:00,710 --> 00:24:08,630 This afternoon I'm going to touch very briefly on some shortly and then expand on piracy and say a little bit about maritime terrorism. 222 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:16,280 Some of you will notice that despite my brief mention of Iran, I've steered clear of stay clear of what could be termed the Iranian issue. 223 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,580 And I'm going to leave my colleague to talk about that in a few minutes. 224 00:24:21,170 --> 00:24:26,810 Before turning to piracy, then let me just say a few words about the other areas of highlighted Somalia. 225 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,070 Somalia is, in my view, worthy of detailed study and analysis in itself. 226 00:24:31,460 --> 00:24:35,180 My paper does not attempt to solve the problem that is Somalia. 227 00:24:35,690 --> 00:24:40,220 20 international conferences in as many years have failed to do that, 228 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,239 and I challenge anybody to demonstrate how the communique originating from the London 229 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,890 conference on the 23rd of February this year actually adds anything to the argument. 230 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:55,040 There are multiple complex factors at play here, including the Kenyan invasion on the 16th of October last year, 231 00:24:55,640 --> 00:25:00,350 a requirement to recognise the relationship between chronic and recurring refugees. 232 00:25:00,390 --> 00:25:09,379 He follows regional interests into strait state conflict and economic underdevelopment and the requirement for the efforts of the international 233 00:25:09,380 --> 00:25:18,020 community to suppress piracy to be accompanied by measures that provide for political stability and food security within the country. 234 00:25:18,170 --> 00:25:26,809 My paper only touches on the staggeringly huge and continuing refugee crisis on the Kenya Somali border and in that 235 00:25:26,810 --> 00:25:32,780 region on a similar but slightly less well known problem and crisis in the north on the border with Ethiopia. 236 00:25:34,580 --> 00:25:41,600 Maritime Law. Law of the Sea. The Law of the Sea Convention recognises National Authority over vast tracts of the sea in the seabed, 237 00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:47,600 except for a few of the most developed and of the developing nations in the region. 238 00:25:47,630 --> 00:25:57,590 This has not been matched by the development of planning, administrative, regulatory or enforcement capabilities to oversee the exploitation, 239 00:25:58,550 --> 00:26:01,700 to oversee the exploitation of the southern increase of their patrimony. 240 00:26:02,390 --> 00:26:11,570 The link between what is legal and what is illegal, licit and illicit behaviour and black and white markets frequently intersect in unexpected ways. 241 00:26:12,110 --> 00:26:20,120 International law is frequently a more useful and clearly drawn framework than is often assumed in popular discourse. 242 00:26:20,570 --> 00:26:26,210 Discourse. In particular, the provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on clause. 243 00:26:26,630 --> 00:26:34,340 That said, such legal provision that does exist still lacks the impact it might have in the case of counter-piracy, for example, 244 00:26:34,670 --> 00:26:41,660 because states are either unwilling to meet their obligations to enforce its provisions or they lack the capacity to do so. 245 00:26:43,610 --> 00:26:45,440 Naval Power Deployment in the Indian Ocean. 246 00:26:45,740 --> 00:26:50,420 The story of navies in the development of naval power both extra regional and regional in the Indian Ocean, 247 00:26:50,750 --> 00:26:59,000 is one of ongoing MSSA maritime security operations intended to confront the threats posed by maritime based and targeted terrorism, 248 00:26:59,270 --> 00:27:01,640 trafficking, piracy and vessel hijacked. 249 00:27:02,030 --> 00:27:10,430 Yet at the same time, the story is also about the potential contest for naval control and influence between Asia's rising major powers. 250 00:27:10,940 --> 00:27:17,299 Some analysts would argue that the rise and development of Indian and Chinese naval power and deployments in the Indian 251 00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:24,860 Ocean constitute the most important aspect of 21st century naval and maritime security developments in the region. 252 00:27:25,310 --> 00:27:32,420 Indeed, the individual ambitions and countermoves by the two dominant Asian powers are arguably more reflective 253 00:27:32,420 --> 00:27:39,590 of 19th century mahogany and naval geopolitics than 21st century maritime security concerns. 254 00:27:39,590 --> 00:27:45,620 And I say that knowing out of a retired engine Commodore and the audience to this mix must 255 00:27:45,620 --> 00:27:50,149 be added the position of the United States and the United States Navy and the conflicts, 256 00:27:50,150 --> 00:27:55,910 or as I see them, the apparent conflicts between a declared intent to shift focus to the Pacific 257 00:27:56,300 --> 00:28:01,370 and what Robert Kaplan posits in concise and incisive fashion in his book, 258 00:28:01,670 --> 00:28:11,059 The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power. When he he describes the Indian Ocean as the place is where the rivalry between the 259 00:28:11,060 --> 00:28:16,700 United States and China interlocks with the regional rivalry between China and India, 260 00:28:17,030 --> 00:28:26,090 and also with America's fight against Islamic terrorism in the Middle East, which includes America's attempt to contain Iran. 261 00:28:27,980 --> 00:28:31,250 A word, a brief word on climate change and sea level rise. 262 00:28:31,730 --> 00:28:36,920 Projections of rising sea levels due to global climate change are potentially serious implications 263 00:28:37,070 --> 00:28:41,930 for coastal cities and infrastructure that have implications for maritime jurisdiction. 264 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,650 As rising sea levels move maritime baselines inwards, 265 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:52,670 taking with them the territorial seas and the economic exclusion zones that are drawn from those baselines. 266 00:28:53,300 --> 00:29:01,520 More crucial, perhaps, is the threat to the very existence of small island nations where land territory may rise only metres above current sea levels. 267 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:10,310 The Maldives, where 80% of the country country territory has an elevation of one metre or less, is the perhaps the most obvious example. 268 00:29:10,550 --> 00:29:21,790 Sea level rise induced migration has already occurred within the Indian Ocean, with the submergence of Bangla, Bangladesh's Bhola Island in 1995. 269 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:29,450 However, the loss of those islands being located inside the coastal baseline did not affect the country's maritime jurisdiction. 270 00:29:30,550 --> 00:29:34,410 Okay, let me now turn to piracy. Let me start by saying it. 271 00:29:34,430 --> 00:29:37,399 Piracy is an extremely emotive subject to some. 272 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:46,010 It is the biggest threat to maritime security and the security of the safe transportation of vital resources to the entire region. 273 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:54,530 To some, it's seen as an attempt, an excuse the maritime powers to demand increasing resources in times of austerity. 274 00:29:55,430 --> 00:29:59,690 Some point out that less than 0.3% of the maritime. 275 00:29:59,900 --> 00:30:05,810 Military are affected by piracy and therefore as impacts are hugely exaggerated. 276 00:30:05,870 --> 00:30:15,230 Others claim the direct and indirect costs of piracy totalled somewhere just short of 7 billion USD per year. 277 00:30:15,710 --> 00:30:21,590 Some claim a link, although some claim to link piracy or at least piracy funding with terrorism, 278 00:30:21,980 --> 00:30:25,660 and many sadly a great many link piracy with al-Shabab in Somalia and 279 00:30:25,670 --> 00:30:29,930 misunderstand cause and effect in regard to the situation ashore in that country. 280 00:30:30,290 --> 00:30:35,080 What is probably not in dispute is that the root causes are ashore and not afloat. 281 00:30:35,090 --> 00:30:39,020 And of course, the truth is probably somewhere in between the extremes I've touched on. 282 00:30:39,950 --> 00:30:45,889 I make no secret of my own views on the subject as the in area UK naval commander in this 283 00:30:45,890 --> 00:30:51,950 region and the Coalition Deputy Commander from two years for two years from 26 to 28. 284 00:30:52,580 --> 00:30:58,309 I have to say, I accurately predicted the Pirates would adapt their tactics to operate further and 285 00:30:58,310 --> 00:31:02,870 further into the Indian Ocean and seas bigger and more financially attractive targets. 286 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:09,950 I make no bones about the fact I saw piracy as both a distraction and an opportunity. 287 00:31:10,190 --> 00:31:16,220 It was a distraction, in my view, in that it diverted assets from other, more important tasking, 288 00:31:16,610 --> 00:31:22,519 namely human trafficking and its ability to destabilise other states such as Yemen, 289 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:31,370 Oman and to a lesser extent, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and counter-narcotics operations, specifically targeting funding for al Qaeda and the Taliban. 290 00:31:31,670 --> 00:31:37,910 Those, in my view, were higher priorities, and yet it provided a significant opportunity, 291 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,900 an opportunity for closer cooperation with civilian organisations, 292 00:31:42,140 --> 00:31:43,820 including commercial shipping, 293 00:31:44,300 --> 00:31:56,090 and for closer interaction with navies who would otherwise not wish to join an Anglo US and predominantly US led coalition. 294 00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:03,080 Now, any piracy or armed robbery of seas in its contemporary form is a plot to bite right outright 295 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:09,170 or comparative terrestrial lawlessness and inadequate security on land and near the coast, 296 00:32:09,650 --> 00:32:18,110 or of a given state or territory combined with the proximate shipping lanes and high numbers of transiting cold and calling vessels, 297 00:32:18,410 --> 00:32:20,690 which essentially become targets of opportunity. 298 00:32:20,900 --> 00:32:29,210 And in the case of Somalia, the prerequisites for chronic levels of piracy and armed robbery of ships are without equal anywhere in the world. 299 00:32:29,630 --> 00:32:36,140 Indeed, the scale of the problem confronting the international shipping community and the regional states has resulted in the formation, 300 00:32:36,140 --> 00:32:45,140 as many of you will be aware of the largest international naval effort since the tanker war in the Gulf to help protect shipping in the region. 301 00:32:49,010 --> 00:32:54,050 But what do you think piracy costs? What does piracy actually costs? 302 00:32:54,470 --> 00:33:00,110 Some costs, such as ransom payments and increased insurance costs, are relatively easy to determine. 303 00:33:00,110 --> 00:33:11,240 Others are not. According to available data, 31 ransoms were paid in the last calendar year, amounting to a total of just under 160 million USD. 304 00:33:11,540 --> 00:33:15,170 Average ransom just under 5 million USD. 305 00:33:15,530 --> 00:33:26,150 While the success rate of pirate attacks in 2011 declined 27% successful in 2010, 13% successful in 2011, 306 00:33:26,540 --> 00:33:32,960 there has been an increase in both the number of attempted attacks as well as the ransom process. 307 00:33:33,110 --> 00:33:39,470 In other words, pirates have been securing equal or greater value for less hijacked vessels. 308 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,219 2011 last year also saw the highest ransom paid on record. 309 00:33:43,220 --> 00:33:50,480 In April, 13 and a half million US dollars was placed was placed to was paid sorry to at 310 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:56,480 least the Irene a very large crew carrier Greek flagged hijacked in February. 311 00:33:56,780 --> 00:34:06,710 She was carrying 2 million barrels of oil valued at 200 million USD, the equivalent of 20% of one day's worth of US crude imports. 312 00:34:07,340 --> 00:34:13,610 On average, it took 178 days or around six months or ransom to be negotiated and the ship released. 313 00:34:14,060 --> 00:34:19,280 Many vessels in the crew were held hostage off Somalia for distressing 12 months or longer. 314 00:34:19,940 --> 00:34:24,650 The two major forms of piracy related insurance of war, risk and kidnap and ransom. 315 00:34:25,100 --> 00:34:28,400 The insurance market has evolved throughout last year. 316 00:34:28,910 --> 00:34:35,990 The total cost of war, risk and kidnap and ransom insurance was approximately 635 million USD. 317 00:34:36,410 --> 00:34:43,100 Now team from the One Earth Foundation have attempted to calculate the true and full cost of piracy, 318 00:34:43,100 --> 00:34:46,520 and they published their working paper on the findings for 2011. 319 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:54,470 In February of this year, the study addressed the direct economic cost of nine different cost factors ransoms, insurance. 320 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:59,540 Which of the two I consider most reliable. Plus security guards and equipment rerouting. 321 00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:03,940 Increased speed. Labour prosecutions and imprisonment. 322 00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,390 Military operations and counter-piracy organisations. 323 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:13,950 They're working on the last seven areas are at least in part in my view, questionable. 324 00:35:14,130 --> 00:35:21,510 For example, they attribute the total cost of 30 different navies, contributing warships in this area, 325 00:35:21,630 --> 00:35:25,530 a gauge of the cost of piracy, which I think is stretching a point. 326 00:35:26,190 --> 00:35:37,090 However, the last they estimated by their calculations, the true cost of piracy to be somewhere between 6.6 and £6.9 billion. 327 00:35:37,110 --> 00:35:46,590 So $3 billion. Now, if at least for the moment one accepts their analysis in their figures, then of the total cost of circa 7 billion, 328 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:58,200 over 80% is being borne by the shipping industry, 19% by governments, and less than 1% by you and I in civil society. 329 00:35:58,650 --> 00:36:07,680 Furthermore, two of the total costs counter-piracy organisations and prosecutions could be considered developments in long term solutions to piracy. 330 00:36:08,250 --> 00:36:15,300 These two factors at 37 million account for about 1% of the total cost of piracy. 331 00:36:15,630 --> 00:36:24,390 The remaining 99% of the costs are therefore currently devoted to mitigating the symptoms and defending against 332 00:36:24,390 --> 00:36:31,530 pirate attack without adequate investments in long term sustainable solutions to the piracy problem in Somalia. 333 00:36:31,890 --> 00:36:39,990 The cost of mitigating the system, the symptoms of piracy are likely to be a perpetual expense for the shipping industry and for governments. 334 00:36:40,470 --> 00:36:45,000 From a cost benefit perspective, irrespective of the actual accuracy of the figures, 335 00:36:45,300 --> 00:36:54,150 this highlights a concerning dimension dimension of the cost of piracy, as funds are consistently spent by industry to treat the systems. 336 00:36:54,540 --> 00:36:57,750 Very little is invested in resolving the root causes. 337 00:36:58,110 --> 00:37:06,360 While the cost of piracy persists, whatever the final figure or total figure is, we are faced with an increasingly risky piracy model, 338 00:37:06,660 --> 00:37:13,590 inflicting more deaths and violence against seafarers, expanding its geographical reach and threatening, ultimately, the oil trade. 339 00:37:14,100 --> 00:37:23,640 Substantially reducing the economic and human cost of piracy will require a redirection of investment from short term symptoms to long term solutions. 340 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,180 Finally, just 2 minutes on maritime terrorism. 341 00:37:28,030 --> 00:37:35,220 And in the aftermath of the attacks by AQ maritime cells on American cells on the USS Cole in Aden in 2000, 342 00:37:35,670 --> 00:37:45,630 the very large crude carry M.V. Limburg off the coast of Yemen in 2002, an Al Qaida in Iraq attacks against the Iraqi oil terminals in April 2004. 343 00:37:45,990 --> 00:37:51,180 Maritime security has been concerned by the prospects of follow on attacks by al Qaeda 344 00:37:51,180 --> 00:37:56,729 and al Qaeda in Iraq against shipping and petroleum structure and infrastructure, 345 00:37:56,730 --> 00:38:01,680 specifically in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. Has she been slightly wider afield? 346 00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,079 You can add to this list the sinking of the super ferry, 347 00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:13,080 14 passenger ferry in Manilla by Philippine Islamists, Islamists which killed 116 people again in 2004. 348 00:38:13,090 --> 00:38:13,220 Now, 349 00:38:13,230 --> 00:38:22,410 images of a hole in the side of the USS Cole or the Limburg ablaze of Yemen are the most obvious manifestation manifestations of terrorism at sea. 350 00:38:22,710 --> 00:38:31,650 Instances of terrorism coming from the sea are, however, more recent terrorism attacks at sea have not occurred since 2004. 351 00:38:31,950 --> 00:38:40,740 But a real danger exists in an absence of attacks when coupled with competition for scarce resource and the high cost of comprehensive security, 352 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,440 will lead to institutionalised complacency. 353 00:38:44,070 --> 00:38:51,960 Even a brief analysis of the terrorist attack on Mumbai in late 2008 an attack from the maritime environment 354 00:38:52,380 --> 00:38:58,740 both illustrates the point and implies lessons that states and other areas in the region would do well to note. 355 00:38:59,130 --> 00:39:04,980 India suffered perhaps the greatest blow ever inflicted by seaborne terrorism when a handful 356 00:39:04,980 --> 00:39:10,560 of terrorists conducted a commando raid on central Mumbai in which 170 people were killed. 357 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:16,890 Now the attacks on Mumbai also reveal the vulnerabilities of the substantial financial, industrial, 358 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:22,140 nuclear and commercial infrastructures at risk in the northwest on the northwest coast of India. 359 00:39:22,620 --> 00:39:29,220 The question that arises is how highly influential business interests will seek to protect their facilities from such risk. 360 00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:34,140 At present, business appears to rely on private provision for security. 361 00:39:34,530 --> 00:39:39,209 However, in the absence of more complete domain awareness involving law enforcement, 362 00:39:39,210 --> 00:39:43,530 intelligence and the navies, the risk of terrorist attacks remains high. 363 00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:53,220 Certainly the terrorists who attacked Mumbai targeted symbols of Indians prosperity and her connection to the global culture and economy. 364 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,910 This fact will not be lost on other terrorists and terrorist organisations. 365 00:39:57,240 --> 00:40:04,700 In February 2010, the. Deputy commander of Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula side, 366 00:40:04,700 --> 00:40:10,700 Al Shaqiri publicly declared the group's interest in closing the Babur Mandeb Strait at the bottom of the Red Sea. 367 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,950 Not only declared the group's interest in closing the bubble mandate, 368 00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:20,450 but they also stated they wish to bring the straits under the protection of Islam. 369 00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:24,770 Now, while there were no hints of how this highly ambitious goal could be achieved, 370 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:30,680 it could not be done without some form of hijack or attack on transiting vessels. 371 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,700 That is, I think, 40 minutes. So I'm going to close there. 372 00:40:35,270 --> 00:40:40,280 I'm happy to take questions when we finish. But for the moment, I'll give the floor to Commander Vincent, 373 00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:47,090 who's going to look more closely at the sort of this area and level down manic dynamics from an Iranian point of view. 374 00:40:48,260 --> 00:40:57,000 Thank you very much. Okay. 375 00:40:57,070 --> 00:41:01,510 I'll try to get through this in as quickly and efficiently as I can. 376 00:41:01,900 --> 00:41:08,440 So I know we've got probably some questions that'll be we'll be taking entertaining here in the next few minutes. 377 00:41:10,750 --> 00:41:16,149 I'm essentially doing a what I consider kind of a subset of commenter when Stanley's brief, 378 00:41:16,150 --> 00:41:25,570 where he focussed on the macro level of security concerns facing the global community in and around the Indian Ocean. 379 00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:33,310 I intend to talk more about Iran and how they are modifying their Iranian strategy. 380 00:41:33,940 --> 00:41:37,750 Maritime ways to help build their. 381 00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:44,290 Their national security objectives. Before I get into the meat and potatoes of the brief, 382 00:41:44,290 --> 00:41:49,599 I just wanted to have throw up a couple of slides to indicate some of the differences 383 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:53,020 between some of the ships and some of the capabilities the Iranians have. 384 00:41:53,440 --> 00:42:00,249 What sometimes is not well understood with the Iranians as they essentially have two different militaries, 385 00:42:00,250 --> 00:42:07,390 they have a regular ground force or army, a regular air force and a regular navy. 386 00:42:08,140 --> 00:42:13,030 Additionally, they have a Revolutionary Guard Corps component to each one of those services. 387 00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:17,560 Now was designed out of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. 388 00:42:17,830 --> 00:42:24,100 It was specifically each force was intended to help provide additional security to the Islamic regime. 389 00:42:25,420 --> 00:42:32,079 So these slides here depict some of the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy platforms that 390 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:37,060 are currently operating in and around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. 391 00:42:37,390 --> 00:42:47,020 You can see they're very small, very manoeuvrable, carry short range rockets as well as surface to surface missiles. 392 00:42:47,710 --> 00:42:58,210 Many of them that they have been acquiring or building over recent years can achieve a speed of in excess of 60 miles an hour. 393 00:42:58,720 --> 00:43:08,530 Again, very manoeuvrable and maximises their capabilities in and around restricted waters such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. 394 00:43:09,130 --> 00:43:17,050 And it might be hard for some in the back to read it, but it says they have at least 100 of these attack boats and fast attack craft. 395 00:43:17,050 --> 00:43:21,730 And the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy consists of approximately 20,000 people. 396 00:43:23,050 --> 00:43:30,190 Now, on the other hand, the regular Navy or the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, referred to as the Orion, 397 00:43:31,540 --> 00:43:39,730 typifies more of the maritime forces that we see in the West and across the rest of the globe. 398 00:43:40,090 --> 00:43:45,250 Frigates, destroyers, amphibious craft, submarines and the like. 399 00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,070 And here's a snapshot of a few of them. 400 00:43:48,070 --> 00:43:57,670 You can see a kilo Russian based, Russian built submarine that the Iranians acquired in the 1990s, and then a number of other ones. 401 00:43:57,670 --> 00:44:09,309 And the want to talk to Jammer on is the an indigenous class frigate that the Iranians just put to put to sea in 2010. 402 00:44:09,310 --> 00:44:14,830 And they've been using it in and around their coastline as well as counter-piracy patrols in the last year or so. 403 00:44:16,180 --> 00:44:21,820 Proximately 58 ships and a slightly smaller composition of personnel, about 18,000. 404 00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:32,650 I titled my research that I've been conducting over the last year a new era Iranian navy strategy, expansion and soft power. 405 00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:43,030 Because I really think the Iranian navy is undertaking a larger mission with regards to its navy to support national security objectives. 406 00:44:43,720 --> 00:44:53,110 But in large part, we haven't seen a whole lot of this reflected in the press and in other reports in the last few years. 407 00:44:53,110 --> 00:44:54,850 But it started to gain some traction. 408 00:44:55,240 --> 00:45:03,049 You know, the geopolitical landscape really in the last decade has focussed on issues such as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 409 00:45:03,050 --> 00:45:10,390 And coming out with Stanley brought up climate change, which of course has been a huge issue, global economic crisis. 410 00:45:10,690 --> 00:45:17,920 But and even with regards to Iran, really the big issue over the past few years has been the nuclear program. 411 00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:23,830 What has largely gone under the radar is the Iranian naval strategy expansion. 412 00:45:24,910 --> 00:45:31,630 But as I mentioned, foreign policy and press reports have started to show some of their capabilities recently, 413 00:45:32,860 --> 00:45:35,590 particularly long range Iranian naval deployments, 414 00:45:35,860 --> 00:45:42,550 as well as some comments which I'll go into a couple of slides about some ongoing strategy changes that are currently undertaking. 415 00:45:43,720 --> 00:45:46,780 Just of note and comment on when Stanley brought up piracy. 416 00:45:47,830 --> 00:45:55,690 The Iranians felt it important enough after one of their Iranian released vessels was attacked by Somali. 417 00:45:55,810 --> 00:46:02,440 Pirates in late 2008, they decided to send their own flotillas down there, and they've been doing so the last four years. 418 00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:03,669 Additionally, 419 00:46:03,670 --> 00:46:13,090 you may have seen reports in February of last year and this year of Iranian flotillas heading through the Red Sea and up through the Suez Canal. 420 00:46:13,090 --> 00:46:20,680 In fact, February of last year was a first air in transit through the Suez since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. 421 00:46:23,140 --> 00:46:29,049 I won't belabour the Indian Ocean specifics too much because we just received a presentation on it, 422 00:46:29,050 --> 00:46:35,110 but it is no doubt in my mind that Tehran is viewing the maritime environment as 423 00:46:35,110 --> 00:46:39,969 key and essential to its own economic prosperity and maritime security as well. 424 00:46:39,970 --> 00:46:45,910 And it's not just the large powers such as China, the US and other Western nations that are recognising this. 425 00:46:46,300 --> 00:46:56,380 I put up one key bullet just to highlight the importance, which I think signifies the rationale for Iran's changing maritime strategy. 426 00:46:56,650 --> 00:47:03,850 87% of its imports and up to 99% of its exports are being conducted via the sea. 427 00:47:05,860 --> 00:47:17,739 Now, in terms of some of the things we've seen and heard over recent years with regards to this changing strategy and strange changing environment, 428 00:47:17,740 --> 00:47:27,410 with respect to the Iranian one key quote that came out of an interview with two key individuals within the IRGC and Admiral Sari, 429 00:47:27,460 --> 00:47:37,660 who is the in the US terms, would be equivalent to their chief of naval operations and a deputy director of operations for the Iranian Rear Admiral. 430 00:47:37,660 --> 00:47:45,190 Admiral or somebody indicated in an interview that by expanding their presence within that strategic triangle 431 00:47:45,190 --> 00:47:51,849 and you can see how large it is extending from the Strait of Hormuz down to the southwest to the Gulf of Aden, 432 00:47:51,850 --> 00:47:54,940 and then farther to the southeast over the Malacca Strait. 433 00:47:55,660 --> 00:48:01,510 They will be able to completely oversee the transit of the world's energy and at the same time protect their own interests. 434 00:48:03,460 --> 00:48:06,490 Very, very large swath of the ocean, as you can tell. 435 00:48:06,970 --> 00:48:18,130 Just of note, the Iranian coastline, which extends from up near the border with Iraq all the way to the coast of Pakistan, is about 1100 miles. 436 00:48:19,030 --> 00:48:24,880 The distance between the Gulf of Aden and the Malacca Strait is about three and a half times out of nearly 4000 miles. 437 00:48:24,890 --> 00:48:29,740 So much larger body of water that they aim to cover. 438 00:48:31,660 --> 00:48:42,460 Another key mission said that was identified through press reports this morning a little bit earlier in February 2009 by Admiral Sari. 439 00:48:43,210 --> 00:48:52,000 He highlighted some of the objectives which the Iranian was planning to undertake as a result of this new mission set. 440 00:48:52,750 --> 00:48:59,230 And again, you can I'm not going to read every single bullet, every single word, but you can take some key words out of there. 441 00:49:00,100 --> 00:49:09,190 Security, superior, superior military power, expanding their presence throughout the region. 442 00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:20,469 Highlights, again, not only the defensive and the deterrence factor, but also the the importance of expanding that operation, 443 00:49:20,470 --> 00:49:29,920 extending that defence perimeter beyond their traditional confines of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, further south into the Indian Ocean. 444 00:49:32,260 --> 00:49:38,650 Now, operationally, I don't want to get too much into the weeds with this, but just to highlight a few details, 445 00:49:39,490 --> 00:49:52,660 what we tend to follow a lot in the US Navy when we when you look at Iranian naval operations, is where the Iranian and IRGC and units are operating. 446 00:49:53,060 --> 00:49:59,740 And in back in about 2007 was when we first started to notice changes to the operating areas. 447 00:50:00,550 --> 00:50:02,520 And then since 2007, 448 00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:14,349 and this has really been the composition of the areas of responsibility in which we're identifying the Iranian and IRGC and prior to 2007, 449 00:50:14,350 --> 00:50:22,629 really operated interchangeably throughout that entire body of water in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, 450 00:50:22,630 --> 00:50:29,320 and then out outwards into the Gulf of Oman. But with this new change in maritime strategy, 451 00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:39,010 what we've seen is the Iranian is really taking a foothold within the Persian Gulf and the IRGC is conducting its operations outside the Persian Gulf. 452 00:50:40,570 --> 00:50:44,590 I think this is a well founded strategy for them because as I mentioned earlier, 453 00:50:44,590 --> 00:50:49,780 when I showed you the slides of the pictures of the platforms that the Iranian and IRGC in, 454 00:50:49,780 --> 00:50:55,690 and it caters to the capabilities of both service the IRGC and will be allowed. 455 00:50:55,740 --> 00:51:00,299 To operate in more manoeuvrable are less manoeuvrable and more restricted waters. 456 00:51:00,300 --> 00:51:05,220 Whereas the Orion can conduct missions outside the Gulf where there's larger bodies 457 00:51:05,220 --> 00:51:10,620 of water and conduct soft power missions in support of the national objective. 458 00:51:11,790 --> 00:51:26,069 But one operational thing that does complicate a bit of the Orion operation is that two key primary or two key Orion bases in particular, 459 00:51:26,070 --> 00:51:32,930 the one that we share but also monitor a boss lies within the operating area of the IRGC. 460 00:51:32,950 --> 00:51:38,099 And so what that will mean is whenever they have to go out into this blue area and conduct their patrols, 461 00:51:38,100 --> 00:51:41,520 they'll have to transit through IRGC and footprints. 462 00:51:42,780 --> 00:51:44,549 Not a huge deal, I don't think. 463 00:51:44,550 --> 00:51:53,580 But it does add to the complexion of the manoeuvre, adds more time to being able to respond to particular challenges or threats that may be out there. 464 00:51:56,700 --> 00:51:58,620 Changing gears a little bit here, 465 00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:05,640 and this is where I get into the soft power focus and some of the mission sets that the Iranian navy may be undertaking. 466 00:52:06,090 --> 00:52:12,210 Don't want to. I'll let you guys read the definition that I got from Joseph Nye on Soft Power, 467 00:52:13,230 --> 00:52:23,400 especially as it competes with the hard power definition that the military's typically focus on, which is coercive and based operations. 468 00:52:23,850 --> 00:52:30,930 But why? Why would the Iranians change their operations and build a navy to support it? 469 00:52:31,230 --> 00:52:39,900 Well, I think overall, we're seeing Tehran's ambition to create greater conditions for prosperity and economic diversity. 470 00:52:40,170 --> 00:52:42,899 There, largely still an oil oriented economy. 471 00:52:42,900 --> 00:52:50,760 But I think over time, they're going to want to stray away from that and have a more diverse economic base to gain additional revenue streams. 472 00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:58,890 And Navy could help support that. Also is the regime's desire to counter military and diplomatic encirclement by the West. 473 00:52:59,220 --> 00:53:11,010 If you look on a map, you'll see the Iranians operating around Iraq, Afghanistan, as well as GCC countries that are largely western leaning. 474 00:53:11,340 --> 00:53:18,329 So I think allowing the Iranian navy to move outside that Persian Gulf and Gulf of 475 00:53:18,330 --> 00:53:25,550 Oman area allows them to essentially leapfrog and focus on areas outside the areas, 476 00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:29,070 particularly around the periphery of the Indian Ocean, to build their relationships. 477 00:53:29,700 --> 00:53:36,809 And then finally, one of the things that has really put their efforts into fruition is their 20 year vision plan, 478 00:53:36,810 --> 00:53:48,660 which was implemented in 2005 by the President Ahmadinejad's government with the aim to be the region's pre-eminent leader in science, 479 00:53:48,660 --> 00:53:52,980 technology as well as economics by the year 2025. 480 00:53:53,010 --> 00:53:59,760 So essentially what we have here is an aim by the Iranian navy to match this 2025 vision 481 00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:06,440 and put its ships to sea to support that mission set all across that strategic triangle. 482 00:54:06,450 --> 00:54:17,700 By that time frame, the significance of maritime soft power is becoming more and more important, especially within Western navies. 483 00:54:17,700 --> 00:54:24,960 But the Iranian could also be ambassadors in support of a larger soft power ambitions for Tehran as well. 484 00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:30,930 Humanitarian aid response is obviously a big mission, said we've had U.S., 485 00:54:30,930 --> 00:54:37,889 as well as China and other larger countries support earthquakes and tsunamis and 486 00:54:37,890 --> 00:54:45,990 other areas to supply food and other other provisions to support needy citizens. 487 00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:56,400 Also, medical and dental civic action projects have been in the forefront of the U.S. military and more recently with the PLA Navy. 488 00:54:56,520 --> 00:55:04,620 Back in 2010, they commission their first hospital ship in which they coined it the Peace Ark. 489 00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:09,149 They went on a four month deployment throughout eastern Africa, in the Indian Ocean, 490 00:55:09,150 --> 00:55:17,970 to help provide additional soft power support in support of its China's mission or political objectives, 491 00:55:18,390 --> 00:55:25,200 and then more traditional missions, which we can provide basic seamanship and vocational training programs, 492 00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:31,620 whether it's navigation, intelligence and information sharing, small arms training and the like. 493 00:55:33,390 --> 00:55:40,920 The Iranian can certainly do that in support of its larger objectives and then exercises traditionally more 494 00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:52,470 of a hard power approach with supporting exercises at a multilateral or a bilateral type of environment. 495 00:55:52,830 --> 00:55:55,850 But again, it's part of that trust. Building. 496 00:55:57,020 --> 00:56:06,110 And and and basically a ability to build mutual trust among partners and build those partnerships. 497 00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:15,320 And it must be noted as well that the Irish traditionally are considered very strong and capable seamen. 498 00:56:15,620 --> 00:56:20,120 So they will be able to, you know, if they're called upon to do some of these things, 499 00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:25,130 would be likely good ambassadors to support these soft power missions. 500 00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:32,150 This slide really probably deserves its own set of its own lecture on its own. 501 00:56:32,150 --> 00:56:41,750 But just to highlight a few things in terms of some of the soft power initiatives that the Iranian government has taken over the last several years, 502 00:56:41,750 --> 00:56:47,840 it's really global in nature. But because I tended to focus on the Indian Ocean, 503 00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:55,160 you can see a lot of effort that the Iranian regime has undertaken over the last few years to cover, 504 00:56:55,520 --> 00:57:03,110 especially East Africa and to a smaller extent in the South and Southeast Asia, in particular, Djibouti. 505 00:57:03,410 --> 00:57:10,310 2010, they signed a naval cooperation memoranda with the Djiboutian Navy to help provide additional training, 506 00:57:10,940 --> 00:57:21,890 as well as support to their territorial waters and support to fishermen in and around their their economic zone. 507 00:57:22,550 --> 00:57:33,680 Kenya Relationships between Tehran and Kenya have been largely economic and industrial in nature, providing a lot of agricultural support, 508 00:57:34,310 --> 00:57:44,810 manufacturing, building those relationships in the larger areas in and around Mombasa and Nairobi. 509 00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:55,010 But there is a potential for a bilateral free trade zone, in particular through the maritime scheme between Bonner, Abbas and Mombasa. 510 00:57:55,670 --> 00:57:57,620 Haven't seen that materialise yet, 511 00:57:57,620 --> 00:58:09,200 but that could prompt the Irene to conduct patrols farther south from that strategic triangle from the Gulf of Aden down to Kenya coast into Mombasa, 512 00:58:10,220 --> 00:58:16,910 Somalia. Aside from the counter-piracy patrols that have taken place over the last three and a half, four years. 513 00:58:17,300 --> 00:58:24,230 There's also been a number of maritime humanitarian aid shipments to needy citizens in and around Mogadishu. 514 00:58:24,230 --> 00:58:31,790 And between September and December of last year, upwards of 20 shepherd shipments have taken place. 515 00:58:32,390 --> 00:58:38,360 And then farther to the south and southeastern part of Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia, 516 00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:47,330 some economic and trade development aspirations between those countries and Tehran are taking place. 517 00:58:47,630 --> 00:58:57,400 However, there's also a possibility of additional counter-narcotics track of trafficking prevention, which could materialise in the next few years. 518 00:58:57,410 --> 00:59:05,899 There have been reports indicating there were concerns, particularly among officials in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, 519 00:59:05,900 --> 00:59:10,639 that indicate that illicit drug trafficking taking place, 520 00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:15,799 which starts from the coast of Iran in Pakistan and across the Indian Ocean and 521 00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:23,600 into the coasts of Malaysia and Indonesia have risen about 300% since 2004. 522 00:59:23,610 --> 00:59:30,680 So that could prompt additional maritime military involvement with the Iranian navy. 523 00:59:31,070 --> 00:59:34,340 We haven't seen that come to fruition yet, but it is possible. 524 00:59:34,610 --> 00:59:38,720 And then, of course, India, a lot of economic trade taking place. 525 00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:43,160 But again, as Commodore One, Stanley mentioned as well, 526 00:59:45,410 --> 00:59:51,170 common concerns exist between the two countries, in particular piracy, as well as maritime terrorism. 527 00:59:51,500 --> 00:59:57,620 So there could be an opportunity to build those relationships where they have those issues of common concern. 528 01:00:00,020 --> 01:00:11,180 Switching gears once again before I conclude. 2025 is the timeline in which the Iranians want to put this plan in place. 529 01:00:11,630 --> 01:00:17,270 They're in the process of doing it right now. But as you can see by that map that I showed earlier, 530 01:00:17,270 --> 01:00:24,170 there's a huge swath of the maritime environment covering a large chunk of the Indian Ocean, which they'll have to cover. 531 01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:31,100 Again, that 4000 mile stretch between the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Malacca is pretty large. 532 01:00:32,060 --> 01:00:35,670 And, you know, historically, the Iranians have not been doing that. 533 01:00:35,690 --> 01:00:42,140 They've been covering an area roughly one third, one fourth that size during their history. 534 01:00:42,890 --> 01:00:47,390 So what are they going to need to do to help make this implementation possible? 535 01:00:47,810 --> 01:00:54,470 They're in need to not only maintain, but build additional ships and acquire even more personnel to help. 536 01:00:55,240 --> 01:01:02,980 Or that mission set within that strategic triangle. What we're not seeing right now, though, is that rate of modernisation and procurement, 537 01:01:03,370 --> 01:01:13,060 which is not meeting the pace of those expanding footprints and mission sets that they have the desire to cover. 538 01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:20,650 Just as an example, during those four years that the Iranians have been conducting the counter-piracy missions, 539 01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:25,209 they've only cycled through eight ships and one submarine to conduct those. 540 01:01:25,210 --> 01:01:31,960 What what'll happen is usually they'll send a flotilla of two or three ships out of under Abbas, 541 01:01:32,380 --> 01:01:41,050 travel around the Arabian landmass, and just set up their operation in the Gulf of Aden and monitor activity, 542 01:01:41,050 --> 01:01:46,780 particularly taking close making close attention to those Iranian leased vessels 543 01:01:46,780 --> 01:01:52,630 that are transiting through the Baba Mandeb and heading to Iran or vice versa. 544 01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:59,410 They've only cycled through nine total ships out of about 58 of their total inventory. 545 01:01:59,420 --> 01:02:08,830 So that indicates to me that they may have some challenges that are in place for those long duration missions that they intend to cover. 546 01:02:09,940 --> 01:02:13,719 And additionally, to do this, you can't send all your ships out. 547 01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:19,330 You've got to maintain the ability to to monitor activities in and closer to your coast. 548 01:02:20,140 --> 01:02:26,050 So they're going to have to find a good mix of those long duration patrols with those defensive coastal missions. 549 01:02:27,340 --> 01:02:34,330 If they don't do that, they risk operational overreach and they won't be able to respond to everything they should, 550 01:02:34,450 --> 01:02:38,540 should a crisis occur, should a threat pop up closer to the coastline? 551 01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:43,540 And then, of course, I haven't mentioned too much about the quality of life of personnel, 552 01:02:43,540 --> 01:02:48,459 but as you saw on that second slide, 18,000 personnel doesn't seem like a whole lot. 553 01:02:48,460 --> 01:02:54,190 And it really isn't if you've even if you have only 58 ships, but, you know, 554 01:02:54,190 --> 01:02:59,860 you risk that lower unit morale and lower readiness if you continue to send your ships 555 01:02:59,860 --> 01:03:04,120 to sea and they don't have time to rest and recuperate and get additional training. 556 01:03:06,910 --> 01:03:13,630 This slide just shows the order of battle that the Orion currently has. 557 01:03:13,850 --> 01:03:22,719 It's not for memorisation or anything like that. Just to highlight, I got this from basically I compiled it from ISIS website, 558 01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:30,070 from the military balance from this year that just came out in March, took a snapshot of that and put it in this tabular format. 559 01:03:30,370 --> 01:03:37,300 But if you take a look at that, you can see that they've got a fairly good mix of submarines, 560 01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:43,749 frigates, Corvettes, and then down to the bottom some of your support ships, 561 01:03:43,750 --> 01:03:50,770 replenishment ships, tenders and things like that to help provide additional support for some of the frigates and submarines. 562 01:03:51,310 --> 01:03:59,950 But if you look at the right column, you'll see that most of them, especially the ones farther down the bottom, are fairly old. 563 01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:04,570 Seventies vintage, some eighties vintage. 564 01:04:05,050 --> 01:04:06,459 Not that you can't maintain them. 565 01:04:06,460 --> 01:04:13,330 You can maintain a ship for quite a while, for several decades, and still have it operational and operating in good fashion. 566 01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:18,550 And it could this could be the case through 2025 and beyond. 567 01:04:18,940 --> 01:04:25,719 However, again, this is meeting what I assess to be the current state, which is minimal, 568 01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:31,240 the long range deployments and more focussed on operations in and around their coastline. 569 01:04:34,420 --> 01:04:45,820 So where are we now? Well, Tehran is using its navy to build its influence throughout the region. 570 01:04:46,150 --> 01:04:51,219 They're orienting their strategy southward to the Indian Ocean, 571 01:04:51,220 --> 01:04:58,660 whereas in the previous years they had really been focussed in and around the Persian Gulf and around its neighbours. 572 01:04:59,260 --> 01:05:06,520 But it's clear to me that they see economic prosperity and especially maritime security, is paramount to their national security interests. 573 01:05:08,290 --> 01:05:16,120 The model that they developed for the Iranian and IRGC and I think is well-founded, is that it suits the capabilities of each service. 574 01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:23,350 Again, you have the small attack craft and smaller boats operating in those more confined waters of the Gulf. 575 01:05:23,770 --> 01:05:28,360 And you have the Iranian stretching out into the Indian Ocean. 576 01:05:29,260 --> 01:05:39,340 But again, I think their plan to do this by 2025 is a bit ambitious unless they come up with additional personnel and additional procurement 577 01:05:39,970 --> 01:05:48,400 processes to build up their navy so they have more state of the art equipment to help conduct these missions on a persistent basis. 578 01:05:49,120 --> 01:05:54,310 And then finally, I think U.S. and Western planners would all agree that we need to. 579 01:05:54,930 --> 01:05:59,820 Being more and more aware of the Iranian operations, 580 01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:10,530 especially as they expand farther out through the Indian Ocean and consider continuing the three security cooperation activities that we have 581 01:06:12,120 --> 01:06:22,470 to identify and help consider additional efforts on behalf of the United States and the West to support some of these countries as well. 582 01:06:22,890 --> 01:06:27,420 And with that, I will conclude and if so, I guess it's time to entertain questions.