1 00:00:08,930 --> 00:00:14,270 Welcome to the Future of Journalism, a podcast from the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. 2 00:00:14,270 --> 00:00:23,420 I'm Fredricka Roubini, the head of leadership development at the Institute. 3 00:00:23,420 --> 00:00:31,400 Earlier this month, we published our annual report about the trends that will shape journalism in 2022, authored by Nick Neumann. 4 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:39,200 It is based on a survey of 246 news leaders from 52 countries and includes insights about revenue models, 5 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,880 social media and new technologies such as A.I. and the Metaverse. 6 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:45,980 Nick is joining us for this episode to albums, 7 00:00:45,980 --> 00:00:53,090 navigate the report and unpack the issues shaping the future of the media industry worldwide and, more specifically, the year ahead. 8 00:00:53,090 --> 00:00:57,350 Nick, welcome and thank you for being with us today. It's a pleasure, Fredricka. 9 00:00:57,350 --> 00:01:04,400 Good to be here. So you say in the report the 2022 will be a year of careful consolidation for the 10 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:09,710 news industry after a couple of years of relentless intensity over the news agenda, 11 00:01:09,710 --> 00:01:18,920 which honestly feels much longer. You say this could be the year of when journalism takes a breath, focuses on the basics and comes back stronger. 12 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:27,920 So if we start with the general outlook, then how do media leaders view the year ahead and the prospect of the industry and their companies? 13 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:32,160 Well, I mean, it's hard to generalise because we have a wide range of publishers in our services, 14 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:38,300 legacy print and broadcasters and digital born and in a range of different countries and context. 15 00:01:38,300 --> 00:01:44,480 But you know, some are pretty confident, you know, confident about the business and confident about journalism. 16 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:50,030 And then there's, you know, others who are really struggling and who are not even sure they're going to make it through the year. 17 00:01:50,030 --> 00:01:54,920 So I think it's kind of a mixture of realism and trepidation, some trepidation. 18 00:01:54,920 --> 00:02:03,080 And also, you know, real focus focussed more because of COVID, more focussed on digital and more respectful of audiences, I think. 19 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:08,030 And then just the other sort of theme to stress at the beginning is that people, I think, 20 00:02:08,030 --> 00:02:13,040 are also really worried about their own staff about that relentless news cycle. 21 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:20,330 You know, working from home during COVID reporting on this, this very distressing story and also being part of it. 22 00:02:20,330 --> 00:02:24,080 And that's really that comment about, you know, taking a breath. 23 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:31,070 I think people are really thinking about what what their news organisations need to be on the other side of COVID, if you like. 24 00:02:31,070 --> 00:02:36,800 And I think this will be a year when they'll try and make that real on the business side. 25 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:42,920 Many of the survey respondents reported growing revenue, but falling audience numbers. 26 00:02:42,920 --> 00:02:48,260 Can you tell us more about the situation there? Yeah, I mean, it was a bit of a surprise. 27 00:02:48,260 --> 00:02:55,280 I think that certainly in our in our data, given that the narrative is that, you know, 28 00:02:55,280 --> 00:03:01,310 COVID has sort of crushed the news industry that actually 60 percent, almost 60 percent said that revenues had increased in the last year. 29 00:03:01,310 --> 00:03:03,030 Only eight percent said they'd gone down. 30 00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:10,940 And I think that obviously reflects the fact that more people have taken out digital subscriptions during COVID, 31 00:03:10,940 --> 00:03:14,090 but also actually digital advertising has come back really, really strongly. 32 00:03:14,090 --> 00:03:23,420 It's been growing at the fastest rate ever, and I think that's, you know, because we spend more time online and we're spending more money online. 33 00:03:23,420 --> 00:03:27,500 So that's revenue side, which is positive, I think on the intention side. 34 00:03:27,500 --> 00:03:34,670 We do see, you know, traffic to new sites falling in some countries in particular by, you know, very significant amounts to 30 percent. 35 00:03:34,670 --> 00:03:42,170 And in the U.S. and U.K., for example, for some publishers and you know, some of this has to do with the news cycle. 36 00:03:42,170 --> 00:03:47,870 But I think underneath it, there's a much wider problem of which is linked to trust. 37 00:03:47,870 --> 00:03:54,080 It's linked to, you know, news, fatigue, disenchanted with politics in general. 38 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:59,000 So all of these things, I think, you know, the challenge is how do we re-engage people, 39 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:04,250 particularly those people who who who sort of came in for COVID and have disappeared again? 40 00:04:04,250 --> 00:04:12,980 You mentioned several different revenue models. Which ones are considered the most important by media leaders in your survey, so. 41 00:04:12,980 --> 00:04:21,140 So obviously that that I mean, most people are focussing on a range of models, but they either lead with subscription or they leave with advertising. 42 00:04:21,140 --> 00:04:29,060 And, you know, subscription is now at the top. So 79 percent say that subscription will be important or very important in this year. 43 00:04:29,060 --> 00:04:34,910 And then different kinds of advertising events, you know, interestingly, 44 00:04:34,910 --> 00:04:39,270 contributions from platforms is becoming more important and has become more important. 45 00:04:39,270 --> 00:04:44,300 So this is big platforms like Facebook and Google paying directly to licence content. 46 00:04:44,300 --> 00:04:50,880 So that's another sort of increasingly important part of the picture. 47 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:52,560 And you mentioned paywalls, 48 00:04:52,560 --> 00:05:01,080 and let's talk about the fact that half of the news leaders surveyed think that journalism is super serving reach and more educated audiences. 49 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:06,960 Do you think this is a real problem as many quality papers are embracing increasingly harder paywalls? 50 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:13,120 Or will it depend on the free option available in each country and each market? 51 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:22,150 Well, I think there's no question that, you know, educated richer audiences have this enormous range of possibilities now. 52 00:05:22,150 --> 00:05:23,290 There is so much, you know, 53 00:05:23,290 --> 00:05:30,280 high quality content available in any language on any topic for people who are really interested and people are willing to pay for content. 54 00:05:30,280 --> 00:05:33,850 It was a lively discussion earlier in the week. Ben Smith, formerly of The New York Times. 55 00:05:33,850 --> 00:05:41,680 Justin Smith, formerly The Wall Street Journal. So they were launching a new news product aimed at educating global audiences. 56 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,310 And you know, there was a whole load of people on Twitter were talking about, 57 00:05:45,310 --> 00:05:50,450 Well, that is the audience that really doesn't need any, any any more news. 58 00:05:50,450 --> 00:05:54,070 But I think, you know, we can also overemphasise this. 59 00:05:54,070 --> 00:06:00,550 I think in many parts of the world, there is, of course, still a lot of high quality free content and much of Europe, 60 00:06:00,550 --> 00:06:05,770 you know, strong public service broadcasters, for example, offering it free at the point of use. 61 00:06:05,770 --> 00:06:09,670 And then there's many others that are following that path. And it's not just about subscription. 62 00:06:09,670 --> 00:06:16,570 So in research that we've done, we know that a lot of people who are not very interested in news that really come across the paywall, 63 00:06:16,570 --> 00:06:19,390 so it's not so much of an issue for them. 64 00:06:19,390 --> 00:06:27,310 I think a bigger problem is the one that I talked about earlier is sort of disconnection from news entirely or sort of liked Connexions, if you like. 65 00:06:27,310 --> 00:06:35,650 And you know, more and more people relying on unreliable sources in social media or through face-to-face networks, 66 00:06:35,650 --> 00:06:39,640 I think that's that's that's a more significant problem right now. 67 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:48,490 Mm-Hmm. And you also talk about a creator economy in the report and the so-called battle for talent in 2022. 68 00:06:48,490 --> 00:06:52,780 What do you see happening there? Well, last year was really interesting. 69 00:06:52,780 --> 00:06:55,720 So you had the so-called Substack phenomenon. 70 00:06:55,720 --> 00:07:04,810 But even before that, where individual journalists left mainstream publications with the promise of delivering, you know, 71 00:07:04,810 --> 00:07:12,970 riches, untold riches from directly getting subscriptions and building up these these subscription newsletters primarily. 72 00:07:12,970 --> 00:07:17,830 And some of them did indeed make lots of money. What we saw last year was some of them actually going back to news organisations 73 00:07:17,830 --> 00:07:22,360 because they realised that actually being part of something bigger was also important. 74 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:27,350 And maybe there wasn't as much money. It was a bit more taxing than they thought running their own business in this way. 75 00:07:27,350 --> 00:07:31,000 I think this year we're going to see more halfway houses. 76 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:35,770 If you like sort of more journalists, collectives, this one called Park in the U.S. that's just started. 77 00:07:35,770 --> 00:07:40,000 And, you know, they're trying to get the best of sort of being entrepreneurial and getting some of the rewards, 78 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:44,530 but at the same time, being part of something else with these lower infrastructure costs. 79 00:07:44,530 --> 00:07:49,120 And I think that that's that's a really interesting phenomenon. We're going to see a lot more of. 80 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:54,790 And then I think the other aspect of it is the platforms themselves have released a lot of interesting new features, 81 00:07:54,790 --> 00:07:59,350 like just to take one example, super follows in Twitter. 82 00:07:59,350 --> 00:08:05,080 So, you know, you could have your your normal feed and then you can provide bonus content and get rewarded for it. 83 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,730 So that again, is interesting for the town's economy, as you know how our publishers is going to react to that. 84 00:08:09,730 --> 00:08:14,740 Are they going to let individual talent earn money on the side of that? 85 00:08:14,740 --> 00:08:23,560 So so yeah, that battle for star talent between individuals or collectives or different companies is one side of it. 86 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:30,820 But I think also how the rewards are going to work when they're more visible and evident, it's going to be an interesting theme. 87 00:08:30,820 --> 00:08:39,580 Mm-Hmm. And let's move to social media how a news lead us thinking about social media in the year ahead. 88 00:08:39,580 --> 00:08:45,970 Who in the industry is having an innovative approach that we should be pay attention to? 89 00:08:45,970 --> 00:08:53,890 Assocham is a big, a big area, but I think one of the one of the standout data points from slides is that 90 00:08:53,890 --> 00:08:59,020 publishers say they're going to be putting a lot more effort into tick tock, 91 00:08:59,020 --> 00:09:07,240 into Instagram and into YouTube, and they're going to focus a lot less on Facebook and on Twitter. 92 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:13,840 And I think that kind of reflects the sort of innovation in format which is come out of TikTok, which, you know, 93 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:19,730 all the other social platforms are reacting to, actually, and we'll react to this year in terms of formats, 94 00:09:19,730 --> 00:09:29,200 you're seeing sort of Facebook really trying to innovate and reels both on Instagram and on Facebook now in similar ways, 95 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:35,410 trying to capture the same wave of entertainment and increase the information in some of these short videos as well. 96 00:09:35,410 --> 00:09:43,120 And YouTube shorts being another example of it. So I think, you know, going to see a lot of publishers trying to get involved in that, obviously. 97 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:48,970 Just a couple of examples you asked about, you know, good interesting practise. 98 00:09:48,970 --> 00:09:52,120 There's a start up in Spain called Actuality, 99 00:09:52,120 --> 00:10:00,640 which works on Tik Tok and other platforms doing these very sort of entertaining, youth focussed news round ups. 100 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:04,810 And you also have slightly longer ones as well explainer formats. 101 00:10:04,810 --> 00:10:13,000 How TOS work really well as we have the BBC's Ros Atkins, who does a daily monologue of about 10 minutes, 102 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:17,800 something like that seven to ten minutes on a big issue, which is kind of engaging. 103 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:25,300 It's designed for social media, but it's also, you know, impartial and the ones, for example, 104 00:10:25,300 --> 00:10:34,690 on sort of Boris Johnson's Christmas party has got something like 11 million views, which is a huge number, a huge amount of engagement. 105 00:10:34,690 --> 00:10:39,310 If you compare that with conventional television, so I think that's what we'll see this year is, you know, 106 00:10:39,310 --> 00:10:45,840 some of those video formats that are facts and evidence based competing with obviously 107 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:54,460 the huge amount of partisan content that's out there on social media as well. I'm scared to ask, is this a pivot to video, too? 108 00:10:54,460 --> 00:11:01,360 Well, I think I did use the word pivot to video chat. You may remember pivot to video one. 109 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:11,230 And yeah, I think that both the combination of short form video and the new efforts are going to that. 110 00:11:11,230 --> 00:11:13,510 Also, actually longform is really interesting as well. 111 00:11:13,510 --> 00:11:21,010 Again, COVID has made more of us sort of watch these long form video on our computer screens or on a mobile phones. 112 00:11:21,010 --> 00:11:30,940 And so there are publications trying to take advantage of that. So CNN, for example, is launching a premium CNN Plus video longform channel this year. 113 00:11:30,940 --> 00:11:36,010 You have you have a lot of media companies trying to use Twitch for longform. 114 00:11:36,010 --> 00:11:37,990 And of course, in many of these environments, 115 00:11:37,990 --> 00:11:46,330 you already have personalities and influencers creating a lot of value already with long form and community. 116 00:11:46,330 --> 00:11:51,340 It's that sort of combination of the network and longform video. Mm-Hmm. 117 00:11:51,340 --> 00:11:55,510 You mentioned before when we were talking about the creator economy newsletters, 118 00:11:55,510 --> 00:12:02,590 and the report highlights an increased focus on loyalty forming channels, podcasts, newsletters. 119 00:12:02,590 --> 00:12:12,040 What will happen this year in this area? And will do you think we're getting to a point where there is too much supply for the current demand? 120 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:19,450 Yeah, it's a good point. I think I think the reason that publishers have been focussing on both podcasts and 121 00:12:19,450 --> 00:12:25,600 newsletters is because the data tells them that they build connexion and they build loyalty. 122 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,050 And so, you know, if you're trying to increase engagement, 123 00:12:29,050 --> 00:12:35,080 this is obviously critical if you're trying to reduce churn as a subscription publisher, that's also critical. 124 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:41,110 And so many publishers are either sort of refreshing or trying to iterate and improve those products. 125 00:12:41,110 --> 00:12:43,300 But as you say, the problem is one of scale and retention. 126 00:12:43,300 --> 00:12:47,800 And so the more people piling in with great content, the more difficult it is to attract an audience. 127 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:53,260 And I mean, in podcasts, I think, you know, the explosion of content is unbelievable in Spotify. 128 00:12:53,260 --> 00:12:57,490 I think three million different podcast shows now. 129 00:12:57,490 --> 00:13:04,600 And so how you stand out is really interesting and this is really where platforms and distribution is going to become much, 130 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:12,460 a much bigger story because, you know, those platforms are often the gateways to getting that attention. 131 00:13:12,460 --> 00:13:17,750 And that's where, you know, exclusive deals with Spotify might help or with or with Apple. 132 00:13:17,750 --> 00:13:24,940 So I think the role of platforms in the tussle between content and platforms is going to be a big, seamless yet. 133 00:13:24,940 --> 00:13:31,330 Another big theme and a key theme for the year ahead is generational change. 134 00:13:31,330 --> 00:13:39,330 Can you tell us more about what you mean by this generational change and how we're publishers thinking about younger audiences? 135 00:13:39,330 --> 00:13:45,320 I mean, in conversations we've had with publishers, I would say this is the number one issue right now. 136 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:49,560 And you know, it's important if you know, for example, if you're a if you're a public service broadcaster, 137 00:13:49,560 --> 00:13:52,950 you need to serve all audiences and younger audiences be dropping away. 138 00:13:52,950 --> 00:14:00,030 And if you're a subscription publisher, I think, you know, five percent or less of your subscribers are under 30. 139 00:14:00,030 --> 00:14:04,170 So you know you've got a real problem of the next generation. 140 00:14:04,170 --> 00:14:07,770 And I think the big question is, can you how do you do that? You change your core product. 141 00:14:07,770 --> 00:14:12,300 Is it possible to change your core product or do you need to build a different one? 142 00:14:12,300 --> 00:14:19,240 And you know, some publishers, you know, are essentially saying what we need to do is just change everything in our core product. 143 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:25,830 So assume less knowledge and create more visual formats that we know work with younger people. 144 00:14:25,830 --> 00:14:29,790 Maybe write more content for four different life stages. 145 00:14:29,790 --> 00:14:35,730 You know, if you're getting a mortgage or getting married or whatever, but other people feel you just need a completely different approach. 146 00:14:35,730 --> 00:14:42,820 You actually have to create bespoke content for specific platforms that is designed for a very specific younger audience. 147 00:14:42,820 --> 00:14:49,710 Of course, there's many different younger audiences. There's Gen Z, there's Gen Gen Y, so you need to be quite deliberate about it, 148 00:14:49,710 --> 00:14:55,240 I think and publishers are really thinking about that, and some of them have some really strong strategies for this year. 149 00:14:55,240 --> 00:15:00,630 I think an issue that plays and resonates particularly with younger audiences 150 00:15:00,630 --> 00:15:05,610 and is one of the most defining issues of why one generation is climate change. 151 00:15:05,610 --> 00:15:09,790 What's the thinking from media leaders in this area? 152 00:15:09,790 --> 00:15:13,020 What can we expect to see in the survey? 153 00:15:13,020 --> 00:15:18,780 We asked them how good they thought the coverage was, and only about a third said that the coverage was currently good. 154 00:15:18,780 --> 00:15:27,240 So there's clearly a bit of a gap in terms of reasons why they felt that climate change could be better. 155 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,650 They talked about, you know, it's just a really difficult subject because, you know, 156 00:15:31,650 --> 00:15:37,800 the slow nature of development means it's just a poor fit with the news cycle on the one hand. 157 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:47,610 They also say that actually, people often don't read the stories, perhaps because it's too depressing and make people feel powerless. 158 00:15:47,610 --> 00:15:55,080 And partly as a result, there isn't a business case to hire those, you know, specialist journalists who can explain the science. 159 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:59,160 So I think, you know, this year we're seeing publishers are trying to address that skills gap, 160 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:07,080 sometimes with foundation funding or other sources of funding. We're going to see more solutions based coverage to try and get away from that, 161 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:14,640 that that sort of sense of negativity and also giving people a sense and more of a sense of what they can personally do. 162 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:23,820 So I think more so service journals around climate. And then I would like to see more more data skills as well in newsrooms. 163 00:16:23,820 --> 00:16:25,920 I think this is one story that really could help, you know, 164 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:33,720 something like the The Rainforest Investigations Network has done an amazing job in documenting real time data about what forests are burning, 165 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,840 where and then driving investigations on that and visualisations. 166 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:44,880 And I think there's a lot of scope to use some of the techniques we saw uncovered to enhance and make climate change more engaging. 167 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,060 And the final thing is I would point to, you know, cooperation. 168 00:16:48,060 --> 00:16:53,460 I think where we're seeing people realise this is such a big story you can't do on your own. 169 00:16:53,460 --> 00:17:02,550 So if you, for example, facilitation exchanges of information between different countries, 170 00:17:02,550 --> 00:17:09,300 our own Reuters institute taking part in the Oxford Climate Change and network for really 171 00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:15,870 trying to understand the issue better and coming up with solutions to these problems, I think climate is a big focus for lots of reasons. 172 00:17:15,870 --> 00:17:24,930 Of course, we couldn't possibly close an interview about trends in prediction without talking about what comes next with technology and the web. 173 00:17:24,930 --> 00:17:30,980 What can we expect in this area? Will I be interviewing you in the Metaverse next year? 174 00:17:30,980 --> 00:17:38,480 Absolutely. Absolutely. We could have done an instrument less worse this year if we put our heads headsets on. 175 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:46,550 And I think by this time next year to be a lot more headsets and hopefully they'll be a bit more a bit lighter and more usable. 176 00:17:46,550 --> 00:17:51,470 But yes, I think more relevant to journalism immediately. 177 00:17:51,470 --> 00:17:58,520 I think the other probably the different applications of artificial intelligence, different A.I. technologies. 178 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:05,510 And I think that, you know, that they're relevant to recommendations, more relevant recommendations to engage people. 179 00:18:05,510 --> 00:18:16,100 That's the number one usage this year, according to a survey, but also commercial uses as well and newsroom automation. 180 00:18:16,100 --> 00:18:22,160 So we're seeing in automation, we're seeing a lot more product tools around transcription, 181 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:30,150 around SUMMARISATION, around optimisation or automation and text to speech as well. 182 00:18:30,150 --> 00:18:42,560 And I think why that's important as it enables publishers to package up content in different ways that it can then a conversion more more easily. 183 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,510 And you know, when we talk about personalisation, 184 00:18:44,510 --> 00:18:51,620 I think that sort of format innovation and how you can package things is going to be a key part of the future. 185 00:18:51,620 --> 00:18:58,760 And then finally, I think we're going to hear a lot more about the next iteration of the internet this year, so-called Web3. 186 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:03,440 So the first iteration of the internet was about publishers making most of the content and making most of the 187 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:10,550 money web to users start to create and then platforms take up that and become the sort of dominant power. 188 00:19:10,550 --> 00:19:14,690 And in Web3, the potential of Web three is sort of more decentralised. 189 00:19:14,690 --> 00:19:23,060 Approach is built on sort of blockchain technologies and cryptocurrencies, and in theory, 190 00:19:23,060 --> 00:19:30,230 that gives content creators and publishers potentially more control over intellectual property over data, over making money. 191 00:19:30,230 --> 00:19:32,870 So that's kind of we're going to hear a lot more about that. 192 00:19:32,870 --> 00:19:38,060 Whether it pans out is a completely different matter and whether it has any relevance to journalism is a different matter. 193 00:19:38,060 --> 00:19:45,800 But we'll certainly hear a lot more hype about Web3 as well as know lots to keep looking and looking forward for this year. 194 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:52,100 Nick, thank you so much for joining us today. Our guest today was Nick Neumann, author of the Generals, 195 00:19:52,100 --> 00:19:59,900 Media and Technology Trends and Prediction 2022 report and lead author of the digital news report that comes out every June. 196 00:19:59,900 --> 00:20:05,750 Make sure to follow our podcast channel on Spotify or Apple podcast so you don't miss the next episode. 197 00:20:05,750 --> 00:20:08,060 And if you don't want to miss any news from the institute, 198 00:20:08,060 --> 00:20:14,510 subscribe to our weekly newsletter by clicking the link on our Twitter bio or on a home homepage. 199 00:20:14,510 --> 00:20:29,352 Thank you for listening to field of journalism. I'm very happy to be will be back soon.