Trickling in, let me welcome you all to this special session on Tajikistan,
an online event sponsored by the Asian Studies Centre at St Antony's College, Oxford.
It's a pleasure to have our four speakers with us today and I shall introduce them very soon.
Before doing so, I just want to lay out the procedure for this event,
so we will conduct it as a conversation and then open up to questions from the audience.
And depending on your preference, you can write in your questions anonymously in the Q&A box and someone will read them out.
I imagine you can write them in Tajik or Russian.
English is the language I will be reading often and or you can raise your hand function and appear on screen to speak,
and we have a professional translator here as well.
So feel free to ask your questions in a language that is comprehensible to the person you're asking the question to.
So that is, as far as the procedure is concerned, this event is being recorded and it will be available online.
So if you do not want to be identified, please make sure that when you're writing your questions,
do so under the designation anonymous and you don't have to introduce yourself if you're asking verbally or on screen.
So with that,
let me begin with the introductions we have with us a really wonderful stellar panel of experts on Tajikistan and on various regions within it.
So to begin with, we have this term within committee,
who is chairman of the National Alliance of Tajikistan and chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan,
the main opposition party in the country. We also have our live shows a month, also an opposition politician from that part of Tajikistan.
We shall be discussing, in particular the province of Colon Badakhshan, which has gone under a government clampdown over the last few weeks.
We also have from the United States to experts. We have Dr. Susan Levy Sanchez,
who is a non-resident fellow School of International Service University and retired with 10 year associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College.
And Dr. Edward Lemmon, research assistant professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.
And our panellists have various levels and kinds of expertise, both in terms of can plan as a country and, as I said, on specific regions.
So before turning to the conversation,
what I want to do for those who may not know the country or the region well is to just start off with a short introduction.
Tajikistan came out of the collapse of the Soviet Union in a very brutal way because it came out through the process of Civil War,
a very destructive, violent civil war which came to an end in the late 1990s.
When I first started going to the country and it came to an end in a negotiated settlement,
which, as far as I can tell, left the old regime in power since then,
and I would imagine at least since nine eleven and the war on terror,
at which point democratisation was put off the table and authoritarian states had more room for manoeuvre.
You have the Tajik state as it were trying to regain its or consolidate its power over the whole country.
And one of the places this happens is the apparently or ostensibly autonomous province of corn about action a highly
a lot the largest province in the country but very sparsely populated with a very sensitive border with Afghanistan.
And there have been several instances of government clampdown, including the one that is just that is in progress now.
And so we want to discuss both what is happening there and place that contemporary
current struggle within the larger context of post-Civil War politics in Tajikistan.
So let me begin then with within Kabila.
If you could tell us something about your role and the role of the opposition in Tajikistan since the Civil War.
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you got to go down one strategy carry out.
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since Lander Toshack reminds us of what's on the minds of voters. Kelly Mamnoon.
I like IBD Ed, can I turn to you?
Obviously, we cannot translate the entirety of what Mr. Carberry has just said,
but he has gone through the history of the Civil and post-Civil War dispensation and budget.
As Don noted, the role of its president in in resigning from his democratic commitments in
conditions where large numbers of Tajik citizens have to be outside the country,
economic crisis and then the clampdowns in different parts of the country.
So, you know, I wonder if you could pick up on some of these themes and give us your your reactions to them?
Well, thank you and welcome to Frank, who's here with us today.
So I will not translate what Mr. Gaviria said,
but I will make a very similar comments and talk about how we have got to the situation where in 30 years after Tajikistan's independence,
we have a country that remains the poorest in Central Asia.
In fact,
GDP per capita with the rising population and stagnating incomes is actually at a 10 year low reached a 10 year low during the pandemic in 2020.
We have a president who's ruled the country since 1992 and Amodu, where the longest serving president in the former Soviet Union.
We have over a million plus citizens living outside the country, mostly migrant seasonal labours working in Russia,
Turkey, elsewhere, and we have one of the most migration dependent countries in the world.
We have a regime that rules using repression, a highly authoritarian regime and a highly corrupt and kleptocratic regime.
The president has nine children and various others have married into his extended family,
and they've carved up large swathes of the economy, along with dominating the political situation in the country.
His daughter is his chief of staff.
His son and supposed heir, Stan, is the mayor of the capital city Dushanbe, and also was elected in 2020 to be speaker of the parliament,
which means that he should his president, should his father become incapacitated, would step into the role of the presidency.
So according to the Constitution, he is next in line to rule the country, and we're seeing an attempted transition of power from father to son.
To keep this kleptocratic system that's controlled by the family.
So where do we get? How did we get here? To summarise what Mr. Capillary has just said,
that you guessed on course was the only country in the region to experience Civil War after gaining independence 30 years ago.
Without going into the complexities and details of that conflict, I think it's important to remember that this conflict came to an end by a negotiated
settlement between both the current government and president and the opposition.
They came together with the support of external partners.
And they negotiated a settlement to this conflict by which the opposition were allocated 30 percent
of the posts within the government that the Islamic Renaissance party of which was to be a leader,
was legalised in 1999 and then from 2000 till 2015, was elected to parliament and had two deputies.
That at least signalled that there was some sort of some sort of signalling that reconciliation and peace building had taken place.
But as Mr. Cadbury explained over the past since the end of the Cold War,
which anniversary of the Civil War, sorry, which anniversary will come next year or later this year?
Sorry, we've seen the morning gradually consolidating his power.
We've seen him targeting the various warlords that put him into power at the height of the Civil War.
We've seen him gradually trying to take control of different parts of the country that were outside of his control,
such as Threshed Valley and also Badakhshan. But I think the next two speakers will follow.
And at the same time, we've seen him eventually cracking down on the opposition.
Yes, we have evidence from something called practical 30 to 20 that the security services had a plan.
Government had a plan to eventually marginalise and ban the opposition party, which they achieved in 2015,
blaming it for a supposed coup attempt and labelling it a terrorist organisation, arresting many of the leading members and forcing others into exile.
So by 2015, we had the end of the post reconciliation period in the country.
At the same time, we had the president himself changing the Constitution and becoming leader of the nation,
legally immune president for life and able to control the country even after he leaves supposedly potentially leaves the presidency.
He would still retain that role of leader of the nation. Of course, we've seen in Kazakhstan how that transition hasn't worked out so well,
but I think if we can firmly place his son in power, then he will be more assured of his indeed will stay within power.
So through these various methods of combining repression against elite members of
the elite purging the opposition from the country and promoting his own allies,
he's managed to consolidate his power within the country over the past, certainly over the past twenty five years.
At this point, we've ended up with the situation where we have very authoritarian country,
ultimately, ultimately the needs of the people of Tajikistan, in many cases, not being met.
But we will finish the handover in the next week.
Thank you very much. And. But.
You know, there's a lot, obviously, the can be said about the of the larger.
Issues at play here in the country as a whole, but I'm glad you brought up Kazakhstan because of course,
what's happening right now before our very eyes is the absorption of what appeared initially to be a kind
of separate Tajik situation into a much larger set of conflicts and crises that include Kazakhstan,
certainly, but also, to some degree, Ukraine in the post-Soviet space.
And it'll be interesting to see how these two other conflicts tell upon what's happening in Beijing as thought and sort of policy directed towards it,
both by great powers Russia in the immediate neighbourhood, in the United States and the EU, and perhaps smaller countries like Turkey.
But, you know, we'll come back to that. I want I want to go now to Mr shows a monolith to tell us something at first.
What's happening now in horror and in the rest of Badakhshan?
And then perhaps you might link what's happening now to earlier instances in which the government has clamped down
on that region and the justification it has given for these clowns and what you think of their justification.
So when Mr. shows amount of speaks, you know, he will speak in maybe a couple of sentences and the translator will then translate directly.
OK. Yes, Mr. Shows on. But is there something in this law?
Yeah, young. In my book, I read the statement about such the theory that Illumina, which group would reach.
Thank you very much, Mr. Feisal. And thank you for the opportunity to speak.
I will try to be as brief as possible. Yeah, that's new.
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when the with the brutal murder of a 29 year old could fit into a bag of subsequent killing
of two of the young man to additional shore and the Greens are declared by the special a
unit of golf that belongs to the tragic KGB and which basically provoked the confrontation
between the central government and the population of potential autonomy in the Eastern.
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and they should stay active danger and sustaining the summit of a niche escalate comforts amongst them.
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But there's a renewed sense that I need someone to restrain and attack.
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Yeah. Stanley Khalique. I mean that sushi. This was probably the fifth or the sixth act of intimidation by Shin Bet against the
ethnic confessional indigenous minority since the the peace agreement in 1997 was signed.
And after the execution of the Afghan people and took the bodies to the central square in Holbrooke,
demanding that those who were responsible for the murder would be brought into justice.
But regrettably, the peaceful protest were also fired upon by the security forces,
resulting in the 17 people injured, three of whom had severe injuries and left with permanent physical disabilities.
First look to them, they actually brought the last provincial element in name.
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live less than read have been in this area to is the idea that I'm ashamed I,
the objective never slid. When you cut these small additional bits tacky that can write me my you.
After the four day protest, the authorities agreed came to an agreement with protesters to include their representatives
and representatives from the civil society into the Joint Investigation Team.
They had to objectively investigate the killings, and however, the authorities kept referring to the protests and demonstrations as miscreants.
So basically, they agreed to investigate the verdict.
But at the same time, they kept naming, labelling the protesters and the demonstrate peaceful, peaceful demonstrations and mass graves.
So mentioned this led to the beaches undermines the Nizami mindset as sled running will be struck in between as your big way to
get flooded is going to cheat in the scans in three remaining rats when the revenue changes such that I need practise to reach.
To date, the investigative authorities practically do not investigate the cases of murder.
However, they are fully concentrated on the offences committed by the protesters.
The in a group of Australian non-essential travel and Selena at Terminal Trust, think of active protests,
don't just let you beat this Iranian in the way the stupid economy punish me is a solution.
In addition, for almost two months, the authorities there have been harassing and demonising the population and the protesters,
including those who were assassinated and injured, labelling them as criminals who deserved punishment.
I'm really not an activist, but ActionScript is not going to give us the balance in the political and indigenous coverage of that.
He just give up my training for to raise the of all that ideas running after
he thought he was escaping the Nazi leadership with rhenium is at this time.
Let's listen to a couple of months of just thank.
Hunter has been declared for activists of British origin in Russia and other countries who are critical of the security forces in one way or another.
Arbitrary detentions are taking place in the territory of the Russian Federation.
The subsequent expulsion from this country and ending up in prisons in Tajikistan.
I think, Mr. Kish, some literature, but something I thought of with the Iran and these are secrets out-of-body experience office with.
And that is that you can stand really there for family was getting ready to go to the estimates of the dead cat caches.
When I see those for me, it's never Mr. McCaslin. It's usually all what she certainly not.
One one such case is and chosen to be chosen, the person who was deported from Russia on December 30th.
And today he's in pre-trial detention facility of the Minister of Interior, mostly just another person and a renowned leader of the youth in Russia.
I'm reading a literally was forcibly was subjected to enforced disappearance in Russia, and it's been 18 days to do that for years and years.
He has disappeared and nobody knows his whereabouts and whether he is actually alive or not.
So industrialist who is a strong proponent of Virginia's theory of living in Botswana.
They got them fixed and don't use them as a rule, then we might ask them.
That's why I used to drive around this stupid little patrol. But I don't know.
Today, the security forces are forcing budgetary employees to speak on local production on television.
And as per the pre prepared texts, which they also announced the names of certain citizens labelling them as leaders of criminal gangs and pork.
Do my conflict this one.
This maternal touchstone plus laughs.
It's difficult, but it needs to stay the same, since none of you have two major conflicts, correct with one such challenging the Australian federal.
That's to say nothing of value production, and ultimately it's a facility it will just run as that's going to continue that.
But that shows you somebody that you're on the cover of to stop.
What actually caused the conflict? I think despite the specific attributes of the region,
I tend to think that the conflict was caused due to social systems, social and settlements in the first place.
There's external as a whole is in the last four countries of the Central Asian continent in terms of GDP per capita,
where production is the poorest region of Tajikistan. That August 12, Badakhshan time, if not, that'll be.
But the find it hard to sustain emotional scars, that's to and that's nip.
I don't know. Tacoma and the Dustoff Kangaroos, a product of their own, and we must.
Said, look, it's a unit of budget cuts that no reduction is central by Rick Horrow, God don't usually use the produce to auction that.
The internal roads in the region or in the worse possible condition,
it's it's basically off road driving towards work and the delivery of goods to this part
of the Republic becomes very expensive and from core onwards to the distant areas,
gets even more expensive. It's just not soul searching, these guys brought us to New Badakhshan just after to try to feed them a fortune.
Nisga'a got us nowhere near the is pretty modest belching bacteria.
We can only get back in morale. So in the new day, I don't know what's the other two sets of rules.
In the end, we see Martin is trying to eliminate the subterranean radical and yet the fortune that fortune.
Especially the same. Internet communication is very expensive, and the traffic speed is very low, and we are also very often deprived of it.
Whether Sean has been without the internet for a while, which for almost two months now,
which has caused huge damage to the economy of the region, as well as in a psychological manner when parents could not reach their children.
It's also psychologically damaged people. Regular Simon is no coherent Islam gets into proximity to this creature or shed its public gardens,
comes out the and not only does the fact that the nonsense as the use of the chaplain is to all bless it so we can understand that.
The region has the highest rate of unemployment and interest rates on loans of several percent higher than the national rates.
People don't have access to finances and this one gets the impression that the region is an economic blanket blockage
that each of us and not several other hopelessly connected just given to me from standing constitution that last
blast better than I will get back in as much whenever Daniel Parihaka equatorial catering for the exclusive throne
ancillaries to become addicted and burn down never stubborn as much as the mystical needs that are not built.
He practises gives them blessed the three three afternoon meet at the Oregon.
Since 2018, there has been virtually no constitutional authority in the region.
Power has been placed in the hands of the so called into the Continental Commission on Establishing Law and Order,
which includes the law enforcement agencies. The Deputy Minister of Interior Interior was appointed as the head of this commission and
practically all the authority on the territory of the autonomy belongs to this general.
Lisa, is it our regular features captured in Glass, this glitch in the ratings interest, did somebody get combat status?
You think that might be a Serrano said the more of them flood the country with political rumours,
but it's said that a little in deletion, I mean others, and they might think of those launches that hit them.
We don't write something that's on that.
That's a very good listener. It's OK to read procuratorates, criminal imagery, you're whatever for religion.
It's not law Zabka, a black guy. My father, I was 34, bitter about the cigarette.
You touched it. I know it's a heroism currently not carrying my most.
People from and from these areas are practically alienated from power,
and State Committee for National Security has an exclusive trust of the Centre for All Decisions of the Senate made in coordination with this body.
Even the personnel policy, the human resources policy in the region, the chairman of the region only nominally occupies his position,
and this is one of the reasons why there is still tension in the region.
Our structures, prosecutors, office and courts are interested in criminal image of the region.
Firstly, it increases the so-called bribe taking base.
And secondly, the experience of working in the hotspots like Badakhshan becomes, for those persons, a good springboard for career growth.
Yes, until now, the nation that such a linear. Now, some may find mischievous.
United Nations calls that the standards set for regional partnership statute without approval.
In fact, which involved the spirit world and the Moon.
Is this? I intended initially to talk about the reasons of such confrontation between the centre and the economy,
but since the format of our session does not allow this, I think it would be best to stop right here.
Well, thank you very much. This shows Amano and the translator.
We'll come back to these other issues, but I want to move now to Dr. Levy Sanchez.
Suzy, if I may. You have worked in this region that Mr. Shares Amano has been describing.
And I wonder if you could tell us your.
Impressions of what's going on there and how you think the region's history during
the Civil War and its geographical location play into the politics of Panopto,
basically that the region has been suffering. Thank you for the question, and it's an honour to be here today.
You know, I feel humbled to be in this group and to have a leader who knows the region much better than I do here in company with me,
but I I think I have a different or maybe an outsider's perspective.
The last time I was there, just to be clear, was the end of 2015, and it was a much different place at that time.
So I'm going to briefly go through my interpretation of sort of the history from the Civil War and then into today.
So during the time of the Civil War, as as there was a war, maybe right at the sort of 1993 94,
there was what some would say a genocide against the primaries in the armies in the country.
And then they had to. There was also economic warfare that caused mass hunger and starvation in the region and the cut off of the region.
And that was that was used to get to the area under control.
And then there was a group of commanders that developed during that time to work with the people,
and they also worked across the border to get weapons and whatnot to both try to get supplies as well as fight the government.
And so that occurred. And then the peace accords, which people have talked about.
The 16th session that occurred and the settled negotiation negotiated agreement was supposed to allow
going to Badakhshan to still have semi-autonomy as a region which it had had during the Soviet period,
as well as participation in the government, which did not occur.
And this this semi-autonomy for the region has been a contentious issue ever since.
And as President Rahmon has tried to consolidate power more and more throughout the region,
he has managed in various areas that were a little bit autonomous to clamp down, kill local leaders and then gain control.
And he has now continued to try to do that in going about option.
And in 2012, there was a conflict. 2014 2018.
And now, today and since 2018, I think it's gotten significantly worse.
So, you know, in 2012, in my opinion, it was largely over control over the.
Economy of the area and competition over the drug, trade and other, there were some other shenanigans underneath as well.
2014 it was the government once again trying to clamp down and killed two of the local leaders and then tried to use that as a ruse to get more.
During both the 2012 and 2014 conflicts, there were.
Again, settled agreements between civil society leaders. And the government and the agreements always work.
The government said if you disperse, we will not go after the civil society leaders or the protesters.
And the civil society leaders, which were branded as.
Criminals or part of criminal gangs, we're actually most of them were not.
In fact, I don't know that any of them were. Some of them had served in the Taji government.
Some had been politicians like Aleem. And I think that.
Instead of leaving them alone, they chased many of them out of the country.
They put them on lists. There were black lists during the 2012 protests.
There were pictures of people in the airport on the black list 2014.
They went after several of the protesters. And recently, in 2020, the same thing happened.
So in 2014, they threat. There was protesters in the main square that had camped out for 12 days, and the government threatened.
If they did not disperse, they would shoot into the group.
So Commander Care came out and he said, you know, along with the civil society leaders and said,
we've come to a settled agreement, you need to disperse now. But the government did not follow through on any of the agreements come to 2020.
This time, they actually did shoot into the crowd, as people had feared would be kind of like an undeserving, you know, in.
Uzbekistan and I think. They promised once again that they would investigate the the the two murdered Gulbadin Zeo back off
and they promised they would restore internet and they promised to not go after the protesters.
This time different from last time they've actually gone after more of the civil society leaders as well as the commanders,
and they've even then gone, and they in the primaries in Croke have gotten support from both neighbouring districts as well as from Moscow.
And so I think that there was a thought that they had some safe passage for safe space in Moscow,
which has turned out not to be true because I'm reading in many ways had united the youth there.
To help protest against what was going on in Iraq, and now he's been kidnapped basically or arrested at the border of Ukraine and silenced.
So bringing it into today. I think that right now.
From what I've heard, there's competition within the Tajik government for power and control on various levels,
and the Palmyra's in some ways are being used as a pawn in that game to an extent.
I think the other big challenge for today's conflict that I, I find very concerning is both China and Russia's role.
Russia allegedly has the Wagner Group in the former Qarabag area in the hills, and forget the new name Shaheen Shamsuddin herself, the new name.
And but also, you know, China allegedly is building this funding a new base and education, and then it has a base in above more gob.
And it is allegedly.
During joint trainings as as Russia is, and I think the fear there is that both Putin and Xi Jinping are supporting the authoritarian regime,
and there is a desire to gain control of what President Ramon keeps saying are these criminal gangs
and these hooligans and they're going to join with Janmaat Ansarullah and become Islamic extremists,
which, you know, of course there is not. And then recently, a few days ago,
His Highness the Aga Khan actually came out in support of peace in the region and asked the people to respect peace and to.
Not engage in rumour or fighting, et cetera. And.
You know, in his in his talk, I have I I suspect that he had had a conversation, potentially with the president of Tajikistan.
And but I don't know that. And that there may have been some kind of negotiated something.
And so for now, there might.
Not be the military incursion that many have feared, but others fear that the KGB is not in the region is not what the G can be,
is not completely in line with the current government. So there's there's it's hard to say what will happen.
And then I think lastly, the Afghan side of the border that plays into this.
I don't think that the Afghan side of the border posé in the Taliban government is any actual real danger to Tajikistan at this point.
But that clearly does not stop Russia,
China and the Tajik government from stating that it is and using it and exaggerating what is there and what is going on.
I think I'm going to leave it there. Thank you very much. That really is fascinating.
You know what you say about the Archons possible negotiations with the government?
And of course, in a way that's kind of the repetition of what did happen earlier on in the last days of the Civil War.
And it seemed to have held the peace for a bit, but was gradually, as you yourself describe it, winnowed away.
So it's not clear whether a future negotiations will do anything more than, you know, hold an ever more precarious peace.
The other thing you mentioned,
which is really fascinating because of the internationalisation of the conflict and in the 90s it was not internationalised,
at least not in the same way. Just, yeah, a little bit.
Of course, that was the those are the last days of the Taliban, but it's in their first incarnation and of in the back.
So there's a strange logic of repetition here going on.
But of course, I suppose the big difference is that today, unlike in the 90s, you have a relatively speaking,
an extensive Palmyra diaspora in many parts of the world that always existed in Russia,
perhaps to even more in Russia than they are than they were at the time.
And we see that they actually take to the streets and protest in front of Tajik embassies in different parts of the world in the EU and the U.S.,
et cetera. So it's it's difficult to keep that genie in the bottle again.
But I wonder if you could say something about the combination of these two things
that there is now a vocal and relatively youthful diaspora internationally.
And secondly, that the international situation you mentioned Russia, China, et cetera, has on the one hand,
it seems to, as you say, support the government's view on Badakhshan, on the other hand.
One wonders if there's any possibility of the internationalisation of the region going in another direction,
and I want to bring ED in on this as well later.
And then of course, you know, Mr. Shows a lot of that.
Mr. Kamberi on whether it might be possible as happened in the past when there was
conceived to be a special relationship between the Palmeiro's and Russia that,
you know, is Russia always likely to side with the government?
Or might it also be interested in? Assuming the role of a mediator to deal with this conflict, I mean, that's an entirely open question,
but perhaps if you can, Susan, just say something about the novelty of the current situation with the diasporan, etc.?
Yeah, I mean, there's I think there's several layers, right? The primaries in Moscow, particularly under unredeemed.
Oh, it's joy of. Had grown more powerful, and I think that from what I understand,
talking to various people that this is going to continue and that there are there's a pretty active group there that is organising.
And I also had heard when the phone lines were cut in the area that that some of
the primaries had coordinated with those in Moscow to begin to send supplies,
medical food, et cetera, to the area in case they cut it off completely.
So I think that Diaspora is very strong.
I also think there's the Diaspora, which is within the larger academic community in the UK and Canada, U.S., Germany.
And there's there's various activists and scholars from the region, as well as from Tajikistan, like Kabir's position and alliums that that.
And you know, and those how people have strong voices and they're not going to just let it go and they also have some protection,
but they're also on at the same time at great risk.
Obviously, you know, we had the the killing in the streets in Turkey and and this recent kidnapping of a couple of leaders.
So that's one thing. The other thing is, will Russia provide a mediation role?
I'm going to read the tea leaves because I have no idea, but I think that it's possible for sure.
I think that Russia has often. Almost.
Played both against the other to have control in the region.
And while that's a negative,
it could become a positive in the sense that they want to have more control and so they're not going to give over to one or the other completely.
And they also want to have a say in what in some of the trade coming out of Afghanistan, I think is also part of it.
So they have to work both with the Tajik government, but they also don't want to see complete civil unrest because that would disrupt.
Both the stability in the region as well as the flow of trade and whatnot.
So it may not make sense. China has very different, I think, goals in the region.
It wants stability and wants complete control. It wants to feel, I mean, in my opinion, it wants to feel like the region is part of its larger.
Outer periphery, it wants to gain control of the mineral resources,
and I think it will support the government's both the Taliban and the government of
Tajikistan to get the amount of stability it needs to be able to get the resources it wants.
And I think it will do that by any means necessary, in my opinion, given how the figures are being treated.
And I think the fear of the, you know,
the fear of some kind of translation of the wigger situation into the primaries depending on the influence of China,
I don't think is completely unfounded, but I also think it's almost impossible there.
And the last thing I'll say about that is the Aga Khan.
His influence, as well as the Aga Khan development network,
institutions in the region provide a balance to the authoritarian cloud that covers the region, and I do think many in the region are scared that.
This will be chased out because the authoritarian dictators don't want that influence in the region.
On the other hand, it provides an infusion of stability and funding and development to the region that nobody else is providing.
And it would cause instability at the border if there were to be rid of that.
It's does that. I hope that I'm sorry if I rambled. No, no.
I think that's, you know, that's what's very interesting.
So in a way, so much depends upon what happens in Afghanistan, U.S. policy towards the new Taliban government.
And you know what the Chinese and Russians do there, because that's the border that, of course, directly abuts.
But the Chinese, so it really is inevitably an international situation now.
And we couldn't place this curious role of being both as it were inciting the suspicions of the government,
while at the same time trying to tamp down on any civil society protests.
Therefore, strangely seems to represent both the government on the one hand and civil society on the other,
which is an impossible role for any NGO to play.
But can I move on to Mr. Carberry on this, on this very question of Russian intervention and mediation?
So can I just add one tiny thing to the Arcadian situation?
One sentence, which is I think there's a split inside the ones who support the government and the ones who are trying to maintain neutrality,
and that's been a struggle for a while. Interesting.
Mr. Kabeer, any more thoughts on Russia and whether you will have any interactions with them on this matter?
Thank you. Press on the I didn't fully agree with Suzanne what she said a little bit about Russia's role.
I want to add that Russia is not interested just in.
The new conflict in post-Soviet area after Kazakhstan, where levels of crime and you.
Conflict in Tajikistan, and I think that it's just too much for for Russia to be to be everywhere with troops as mediator,
although, for example, in Kazakhstan there wasn't no mediation and there was direct to operate operation.
So it will be very difficult to control the situation in our region.
But it doesn't mean that there are not any cooperation between Russia and Tajikistan on primaries or on its activities.
You know, this two case was just shown before, and it shows us that they are very good.
Good cooperation between security borders for touch from Tajikistan and Russia without Russia's intelligence service, which is tragic.
Dortmund could not kidnapped boss and or deported Tajiks.
So I think that Russia play now two games, one good cooperation with the tragic governments on security and against all activists,
opposition groups and same time Russia will keep stability in the region.
And let us not forget that Russia and Russia,
its very unique and special question because before it ended a period in before Bush's Russia in Terror had limited troops,
military groups in Badakhshan, so many of Russian expressed till now speaking about this historical moment.
So I think that so to Russia.
I am not sure that Russia can play the role of moderator also to bring both sides of the table
because Rahman is not really talking to any third party to be involved in Tajik groups just now.
Thank you very much. Yes, no, it's a series of conundrums, isn't it?
You know what can and cannot be done?
You know, the paradox is, on the one hand, the German government cannot survive, as you say, without Russian support.
On the other hand, the Russians are unable to actually impose themselves or perhaps unwilling to impose themselves on Tajikistan,
perhaps unless the situation in Afghanistan warrants it.
Ed, what do you think? Do you have any view on this sort of larger international dimension of the conflict?
I think Russia would. If it had to intervene in a conflict in horror,
if it was a conflict between the local population and the government, it would be in a difficult position.
I think Russia remains popular in the country for the most part, especially since, as Suzanne said.
And if Russia was seen to be intervening against the Tajik population, I think that would present it with with the challenges going forward.
I think Russia is more likely to intervene in the case of a spill-over of terrorism from Afghanistan.
And certainly, there were fears at the time of the situation,
recent situation in Kazakhstan that there would be a similar operation in hock that the government would effectively launch some sort of provocation.
They would frame the incident as being a spill-over from Afghanistan and that they would call on their international partners to intervene.
I think that obviously hasn't happened, but I think, you know, unless unless it was framed as some sort of spill-over from Afghanistan,
I think Russia and Russia would struggle to justify its intervention in what could be framed as a domestic domestic dispute.
No, thanks. I mean, one wonders also going back to what Mr. Chavez was saying earlier about,
you know, how much air is left in this narrative of Islamic militancy,
given the decline of the kind of war on terror and the the strange happenings in Afghanistan where the Taliban now to be or,
I assume, will be recognised as a government. In any case, these negotiations with all kinds of powers, including the United States,
saw what seemed to worked after 9-11 to label both the Renaissance party as an Islamist party,
which is laughable, of course, but also to gesture towards Afghanistan and what is happening there and the commanders that Susie was speaking about.
You know, I don't know.
I'm sure many people didn't believe any of it in the region, but I wonder how believable any of this is in internationally any longer, either.
So, you know, one wonders if there's a new narrative that's necessary or maybe there isn't,
you know, maybe the government will just soldier on with what it has, and it doesn't.
It doesn't matter. I think if recent events in Kazakhstan are anything to go by where the government blamed the unrest on 20000 terrorists,
foreign sponsored terrorist, that was how they obviously legitimised the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
Intervening with that, peacekeeping forces at least Russia and China in their posturing and their narrative very much fought,
publicly bought into that reason reaffirmed by those who say they actually believe that,
or whether the people on the ground in these countries believe it as well is probably less likely.
But certainly, it seems that outwardly at least the two great powers on the borders of the region,
Russia and China are happy to continue to turn this narrative of extremists and terrorists.
And we've seen the government continuing governments throughout the region,
continuing to use this spectre of terrorism and extremism to legitimise various arrests and clamp down on opposition.
So certainly, we've seen the continued politicisation of counter extremism.
I wouldn't think it's going to go anytime soon. Yes, of course you're right.
And the Chinese also do that in Xinjiang.
Susie was mentioning, We have a question till most talansky.
Would you like to ask it in person or do you want me to read it out?
OK, I will read it out, since I don't. Hear from you.
So thanks to all speakers, I have a question to the production experts.
What is your interpretation of the glorifies soaps dismissal as governor of going about action?
I have heard context in the region talk about his impending political comeback.
Others have referred to his dismissal as final and perhaps a reappearance in the icon institutions.
I would appreciate your opinion on this. Many thanks. So shall we begin with Mr. shows the monologue and then move on to your comments, Susie.
I think they should interpret the question to the element that would.
Yes, please respond. I deal most to landscapes, brush with the movie.
I'd be silly. Well, who'd you'd go to? Pfizer is buster of a good old in the summer on some issues,
still use to use nuclear stone was most very notes of political games lukewarm as that one was in contravention in the bush,
who is politically has moved on the notion that Rambo two was on a visit to Kabul, who went on board.
The new political group at the venue will political, you could even take the.
It's a it's a controversy for. It's a it's a little controversial.
A person can return to politics if he was actually in politics, but in case of the other phase, he wasn't part of the politics of thought.
He was just appointed as a figure which didn't really decided on wilful tenure of the candidate will last.
It's interesting. Plus this British is just over good. Those they would not forget the.
You should the Shinya, probably me, Harold.
The central government is trying to find a force for a simple way of solving the the problems in Coral in Gordon, but offshore since 2006.
It is that if don't just let that issue was in the kitchen to live that nuts, they were the ones who the you.
Jemmy Lee must have seemed to have some isolated promoters who.
So and in the same manner as it was in 2015 to 2018, and for this specific period of three years,
we have been demonised by the central government and law enforcement.
He is the last one, the ROG Phone three in the world and in many new voters on the scene in that area.
And when the president arrived in Hollywood in 2018, he officially demanded from law enforcements with the use of power to settle things down.
He told me to eat the Chiquita Summit meeting, Ramona Akinyele support to eat the rich leaked menu is shown in the first to show me the stuff.
That's not so much, to be sure.
Mid-Ulster that made it to its.
Narrow Zealand, certainly narrow.
You showed the premium left centre stack, this nifty showed the very same area through the lyrics and through the nostalgia.
Still, the bowling ball isn't an achievement.
They're not standards the ship probably wouldn't allow them. Back then,
someone from his advisers apparently assessed the situation and advised him that this is not a favourable
moment for us since the people is they do not really trust in the government and in law enforcement,
and it might not end up in a favourable way.
That's who we actually want to. He put a stop to your good faith, and that's led me.
Let's let the correct balance as a chuckle as Lightning, which I googled the viral video Serena has no we trust in the Selena.
It's incredibly blasted. Please go. Fans of four has not let that rule but get to the virtual dress leadership of a third party celebrity appearance.
Yes, what that's gonna do is that they let us now know we must have narrowed the affection, Naseeruddin.
So in this moment, your go to phrase,
it was basically used as a tool in order to win the trust of the general public towards the the central government.
So he was used to divide the the general masses from the so called the criminal gangs.
You and me, that's a bit of a go to should history go, that I need to finish thoughts on cities about this province,
not just the opposite mozna, but this part is not a sheep problem.
Still having the method, I mean, it does support life.
Five Mission in Chicago, which might have virtually any opinion on my group in the cylinder,
is sure and very nice to bring up British law, but it's the news that is troubling but has enough signal.
So since his appointment in 2018, and now it's been three years since the government decided that now it's a it's a high time
to to basically take on the military resolution of the problem and go on a better showing.
He was dismissed and apparently those in the government still believe that it's a good decision and they
keep demonising a certain portion of the public and keep using the force in order to solve the problems.
I nearly finished training the most nights, I don't imagine ferocious,
ferocious Ferrucci lasted longer than any patrol team have had the most emotional animal to method the means.
I start with the.
The study, Majesty Savoy, the period that gets in as part of the young you'll is not much exclusive arrogance, which I it's a perfectly.
So the government basically decided that they do not they know more needs this image will fade just and good government,
and they can use the power and order to put in place the order that they need,
which is contrary to the order of all of the state and per the Constitution and other
norms and the order that they managed to put in place in all the regions of Tajikistan.
But in Badakhshan, from time to time, they still face some resistance.
You what I need is surely you need a really strong and those votes, abortion votes negative, go to Facebook.
Cassettes of us were saying I would go to phase of any record.
I would go to phase of our political year that there was one to talk the on the future starter position.
Even though I'm not only it, the.
Very peacefully immune that.
In terms of the gold files, a return to politics, you can actually do that all in one case, if you will join the opposition forces.
In other cases, there will be no other chances for.
Thank you very much. Very, very interesting set of comments. I want to turn to you, Susie, for your views.
You know what Mr. Schurz Amano has been saying is?
Displays what you had suggested earlier, the internal cleavages within whether HD and or civil society.
I had heard that they may even be that approach from people in the bombers to the president's son, who is mayor, as Ed tells us of Dushanbe.
You know, so there seems to be an attempt to play off factions within the government itself.
So your factions on all sides of this fence? You know, what do you think is happening on this very particular question that Tim has asked?
Yet on Mutual says, I'm trying to figure out which parts to add in here, Alan gave a very fulsome answer.
I think your guard flies off. I completely agree with Elaine was more of a puppet or figurehead.
I think that the government from his embezzlement, you know, his issues prior from his prior position, they kind of had a complete hold over him.
So he was a perfect governor to have in place the current acting governor, governor of going about action, former General Myers and Myers.
No, Bartok's is a disciple from what I understand of the Optima. And that's where I think.
The internal split becomes important, and the problem is my information about the internal split is largely based on conjecture, rumour, et cetera.
So I go into my discussion of this with that caveat that that I don't have enough information, but I do think it's it's important to understand it.
I think there's a. From what I understand, the president's family was trying to push you to move out.
Yeah, Thomas was not going to be pushed out and has his own power.
In fact, from what I understand, he has his own. Network Connexions to Russia and China.
So, so he has some outside support and.
He. And we put this the.
There was also some competition over the illicit trade networks and your time off caused
some problems along those networks in order to show that he still had some authority.
And from what I understand, that was also part of the reason of bringing getting Pfizer out so that the prosecutor could
go in caused sort of a conflict in Iraq and distract from the issue of getting rid of Yatta.
If I'm making sense here. And what that did from what I understand is actually unite a Zada, the daughter and and the mayor rustam a little more.
And against Yakima, whereas they were not as united before and Mr. Marley may have been a little more of.
Someone to go to, I hadn't heard that the palm trees had gone to him, but I can I can understand that.
So I guess overall when I look at the picture size of was used as a puppet.
They put in someone else to have an excuse to say, now we're going to go after this guy, which caused a conflict.
It actually strengthened your team's position, which was weakened. United parts of the Tajik family and then.
Now, it's hard to say where that competition is going again, conjecture, rumour and.
And we're fired off whether he's coming back or not will depend on and there was a recent meeting with Pfizer still there,
asked Jamal's brother and the Tajik government about going to Badakhshan and about getting rid of these criminal leaders.
So far his office. And along with children, my office are deeply in that camp.
And and so I suppose it just depends on where your grandfather's office usefulness at this point would be,
and I think Eileen's point that if he's going to have any legitimacy. In terms of production at all.
I completely agree that he'd have to join the opposition, but.
That would be pretty tricky for him. Thank you very much so.
In the few minutes left.
If anyone has any questions, please write it in the Q&A box or raise your hand and I will call upon you should you want to speak.
You know this discussion as it has proceeded, it's very interesting because it shows where.
All the kind of doors off as little constitutional dissent are shut.
Opposition seems to move into families and operate through factions and through instrumental ization of various factions,
so it never entirely goes away as it were internalised and fragments.
Groups from within. And you know, Susie, one of the things you just mentioned now is it seems to be the major force
that allows all of these factional relations to splinter or to come together.
And that is the democratic civil society on the street kinds of demonstrations that we see in Krog,
which are extraordinary as far as I know, you don't see them much in post-Soviet space.
And they've been going on for a while for years.
Yeah. People managed to come together to cut down trees to stop, you know, armoured vehicles and all the rest.
In a society which itself otherwise seems to be quite actualised, my neighbourhood and language and all the rest, where is this tradition coming from?
It's, you know, it really is entirely extraordinary.
And and one reason why I defend myself personally to deprecate cause to, you know, let's not demonstrate and maybe things will get much better.
Is that rather, Nick, I agree with you. I don't think they will get better.
But also the demonstration allows for the splintering fragmentation and cut endoscopic remaking of relations all across the country.
And that's really something that you don't see anywhere else in the country, as far as I know.
So, you know, perhaps you could say something briefly about that, and I want to turn to Mr Carberry to respond to this as well.
Yeah, I think it is remarkable. I mean, I've written about what I call the informal organisations extensively,
but I think in general, they continually remake themselves with a courage and veracity.
Despite the crackdowns and the civil society leaders in combination with the Diaspora,
in combination with the commanders and the people within the community,
whether it's within the different with the educational community within these sort of under groups, within the akkadian.
And they do all come together. And you're right, the factionalism goes down to, you know, little fights between street leaders.
But when it comes to this, all those facts, they they transcend all of that and they have these demonstrations, which I agree is.
It's it's a form of. Civil society and public engagement that you wouldn't CNN authoritarian dictatorship,
and they're forcing almost a democratisation of the public sphere regardless of the risk.
It's it's it's I think it's pretty profound in a region where that that I mean, look at what happened in Kazakhstan.
People protested and they brought in Russia and the CSTO and everything else.
It's not like Tajikistan doesn't do that, but the people continue. If that I don't, I hope that answered your question.
Well, thank you, Mr. Comey. Do you think that?
The model of civil society resistance that you see in the primaries is impossible in other parts of the country
for various reasons because they are low lying and it much easier to get to and much easier to control.
Or do you think you know what happens in the primaries might have some influence in that lawn or in the car and more in other parts of the country?
You know, first of all, I'm not sure that's what happens in front of you, I'm here now for some couple of years.
Real soon we will have seen in other parts of Tajikistan cut blowing in some fashion or not.
I'm not sure, but it's first time. That's all projects robust.
I'm going to solve the Cooler Korea and Cutler, even from migration just.
All of these people, the first time their world behind or together with prime minister is just last last event, last November and December.
I think that it is a very important signal. That before was the problem of families is the problem.
I mean, this problem of, I repeat, it's the problem of identity and as a secular parties later it was in prison.
All of the parties groups said, OK, it is appropriate.
As I said, even in 2012, two thousand fourteen, the same problems problem was not so important, for example.
Well, I repeat, you find other opposition groups. But now this situation has changed so we can discuss why.
What is the five main factors?
But the fact is that all opposition groups of migrants and a lot of people in the in the struggle Zsa Zsa Zsa are trying to show their sympathy,
their support, moral support for families and.
So I think it's very important to get. That really is no, that's hugely consequential, I entirely agree.
Ed, perhaps you can say something about the effect or not effect of what's happening in the primaries,
in other parts of the country and whether you see the possibility or the desire for, if you will, more democratic governance.
But in terms of organisation in these in these different parts of the country.
You know, I think the grievances are certainly there.
You know, we've had decades of misrule, authoritarian governments, widespread corruption, and we've occasionally seen it spilling over into protests.
Small scale protests to protest in 2020 after being hit with a mudslide and the
lack of government response in headlong property that we see very occasionally,
mostly in the premier, you know, people mobilising against the government.
I think there's still this association in people's minds.
And I think even though now most people in the country don't have a living memory of this majority of the population born since independence.
But there is still this repeated, which you didn't mentioned in his opening remarks,
repeated idea that if you protest, that inevitably leads to instability.
Look at what happened with the Arab Spring in Syria and look what happened in Tajikistan in 1992,
where we had two opposing protests, eventually turning violent and leading to a civil war.
So I think there's still this attempt by the government to cultivate this idea that politics and engagement in politics is dangerous.
But citizens should be anti political associate politics with with violence.
And so I think that's been relatively successful. But as we've seen throughout history, these grievances are there.
They can often explode in ways that we wouldn't we wouldn't predict.
So I think there's certainly the potential there.
But at this point, we've seen the Typekit people being very resilient, very patient, putting up with a lot of hardships.
And so it may well be that they continue this quiet approach.
So I think there's potential. But I would say it's unlikely that we'll see mass protests anytime soon if we are to see protests horror.
The premier is the most likely place. Thank you, thank you very much.
Perhaps we should end with Mr Sharon as a man of a given what has been happening in Rogue and in the Palmers.
Perhaps you can say something about. What you expect to happen and what you would like to happen within the realm of the possible?
And maybe we should have the translator translate this first.
Yes. Which is a way to stop resisting for the neighbours to complete those two shows pre-school
commercial union to the only place credits and irresistable with village to raise a floor or movie.
Watch the nerdy cartoon and go to one party of the neighbourhood must be a democratic scheme first like monster.
Rick Santorum. Lucky you.
That's a man needs to be much more relaxed about the slow movement into the democratic steps that you need to know about the new nuclear regime.
It mentions the one the most severe, intrusive, bizarre questions.
At a was to ActionScript, when you can buy with what I would like to to have is a genuine democratic structure,
genuine democratic regime where all the national ethnic,
linguistic religious minorities could subsist freely, which is pretty impossible in any that altering autocratic regimes that we are right now in.
That's what I want to say to the seductive damage to property.
Beverly Beverly, the no good they should stress me, Beverly in any case, but that's tacky nearby that shrine that we discovered afterwards.
What is currently happening is that it's an unprecedented since 1992.
Do we see an unprecedented consolidation of this society, both within the nation itself and outside the sport for the production and.
It was done in satiety and immediate shots and.
Riley may have the will know whatever the suffering and new regime,
the regime athletes just wishes to suffer the myth of a regime, what it supports and new rule.
The two new Chapter three, the term in the Barabbas this news last night.
Well, that's neat. Neat to dole out from underneath Gaza must.
That's the key issues of the indigenous community of Kazakhstan.
And why not give him the other day?
Now she did a dig at in Selma.
Evoked the symmetry that fascinates me is the pieces just over go dark and the party suddenly Murdoch
and then releases them into circulation oblivion in the economic oblivion that unites a problem.
But I must stop. Genomic is still correct. Not yet.
The thumb probably only comes out of a atop the scope of what it means is that you stop all.
Even you talk about those.
That's a shame. [INAUDIBLE] capital of Badakhshan.
Tim Walsh. Under the current circumstances, it is unlikely that the government would take extreme measures.
However, with the preservation of the current regime,
the tension would remain since the region does not have any oil or gas or any other resources that could be easily extracted and benefited from.
I have noticed that since 2006, when the arcade and structure started to invest in the region and there was some substantial capital investments,
the interest of the centre toward the autonomy started to grow.
And nowadays, those authorities are trying to keep the inflow of investments under their
control so that all those millions would go through their hands and they would,
to a certain extent, benefit from them. Thank you very much.
I mean, at the very end of our session, you know, all of these new issues come up.
It's always the case that it's so that on the one hand, you have the poorest region of the country, which yet is capable of being a cash cow,
both through the the drug trade through Afghanistan, but also through money is received by NGOs and all the rest.
We also have I noticed from the chat. The sort of, if you will,
the international recognition of the toxic kleptocracy with the possible appointment of the president's daughter as as ambassador to the UK,
I don't know if this has happened yet or not.
And the you know, it has Odia and the and the appointment of a new a calf leader as well as Susie has written.
So all kinds of all kinds of things are happening.
Not very cheery news, unfortunately, but nevertheless quite different from the 1990s,
insofar as we are now talking about a situation which cannot just be confined and closed off altogether.
There is so much more of everything.
Violence, not of the genocidal kind that perhaps we saw the early 1990s, but more structured kind of by the state's diaspora,
a possible international interest or certainly internationalisation, which of course, always brings in the possibility of proxy wars.
Perhaps this is not a region, the farmers or even in Tajikistan, where that could happen very easily, but a whole range of issues yet to be discussed.
And I hope we can have another couple of sessions in coming weeks on budget Christiane, not only because of its own problems and possibilities,
but also because in some ways it tells us about the region in Central Asia as a whole and the post-Soviet space as a whole.
So. Thank you very much indeed to all our panellists today, it really has been a wonderfully informative session.
I have kept you very long, but you know my gratitude and my thanks.
The session will be recorded, it'll be put online and you will all receive links to it.
So with that and my best wishes for the future stability and peace of Badakhshan and of Tajikistan as a whole, thank you and goodbye.
Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Really, it's a pleasure seeing everybody an honour to be here.
Thank you so much. Thank you. Live by.