1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:11,850 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 11th annual restaurant of lecture, we're delighted to see several members of the Dondo family here as usual. 2 00:00:11,850 --> 00:00:19,920 As you know, this was originally going to be Dr. Condoleezza Rice, but due to the impact of the coronavirus, 3 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:25,440 which has also impacted us in other ways, she isn't able to come. 4 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:35,370 We are absolutely delighted both for the subject and for the person that Dr. Norbert 5 00:00:35,370 --> 00:00:41,280 Röttgen can deliver today's lecture because I think it will be true to say that second, 6 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:45,390 only to what happens in the United States next year, 7 00:00:45,390 --> 00:00:55,020 what happens in Germany next year and what direction Germany takes is of huge importance for the future of the West. 8 00:00:55,020 --> 00:01:06,480 Delighted in the person because Norbert Redken is not only one of Germany's leading politicians and expert on foreign policy and European policy, 9 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,020 the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag, 10 00:01:10,020 --> 00:01:16,140 former minister of the Environment, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 11 00:01:16,140 --> 00:01:25,470 He is also now a candidate to be leader of the CDU and therefore potentially the key to use candidate for chancellor when, 12 00:01:25,470 --> 00:01:29,890 of course, no, but you would be the leader of the free world, as we were told Greece. 13 00:01:29,890 --> 00:01:36,630 No, no, no, no, no pressure, no pressure. 14 00:01:36,630 --> 00:01:44,550 Now, I felt it was too much to ask Dr. Rudkin to give a full dress lecture at five 15 00:01:44,550 --> 00:01:52,200 days notice so he will be delivering what in German is called an impulse fall, 16 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:58,440 which does not mean an impulsive lecture or lecture given on impulse. 17 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:03,600 Why not just what you need when you are a candidate for the leadership? 18 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:12,000 It means a lecture which gives out impulses, intellectual and political impulses, 19 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:17,820 and to respond to the impulses were delighted to have Gideon Rachman, 20 00:02:17,820 --> 00:02:28,980 who is, I think, one of the two most influential commentators on international affairs in the English speaking world. 21 00:02:28,980 --> 00:02:40,020 The other being, of course, outstanding is alumnus Tom Friedman. That's the competition so far, be it from me, modest if. 22 00:02:40,020 --> 00:02:43,740 He won the Nobel prise, the European press prise. 23 00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:55,710 He's the author of two books Zero Sum World and most recently, Eastern Ization, War and Peace in the Asian Century, both of which, 24 00:02:55,710 --> 00:03:07,320 like much of his commentary, gives us actually a pretty sobering view of the role of Europe and indeed the West in today's world. 25 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:14,200 I will then make a few comments. We'll have a discussion amongst the three of us and then we'll go into Q&A. 26 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:34,360 Last point. Hashtag trend of 2020. Feel free to tweet away with that, please join me in welcoming this year's round of lecture. 27 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:45,430 The Tim Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, and I dare to say, dear friends, thank you so much, Tim, for the introduction for the invitation. 28 00:03:45,430 --> 00:03:50,350 Of course, it's a huge privilege for me to be here, 29 00:03:50,350 --> 00:04:02,140 and I have to say that that I had to reorganise my schedules in the last and the last days and weeks, 30 00:04:02,140 --> 00:04:06,190 but have never had to have cancelled trips abroad and something else. 31 00:04:06,190 --> 00:04:13,360 But I have never put into question my participation in this Darren dive colloquium 32 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:20,560 because I've always seen this as a huge pleasure and an honour to be part of it. 33 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:29,050 However, I have to say that a main reason for sticking to this will to participate was because I was 34 00:04:29,050 --> 00:04:39,100 so keen to listen to Condoleezza Rice and that now instead of listening to Condoleezza Rice, 35 00:04:39,100 --> 00:04:46,780 that I have to listen to my own words. I have to say it's quite a disappointment for me. 36 00:04:46,780 --> 00:04:57,700 I tried to limit the disappointment for you, but of course, there is a cost of this replacement of the lecturer and speaker. 37 00:04:57,700 --> 00:05:15,400 So without further ado, I would give it a start and try to deliver some thoughts on the topic of Germany, Europe and the West. 38 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:20,860 I think I should do it in reverse order because, for example, 39 00:05:20,860 --> 00:05:27,010 what a sensible role for German foreign policy is can only be understood if we 40 00:05:27,010 --> 00:05:32,800 have a understanding of the state of affairs of Europe and of world affairs. 41 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:46,630 So I should start by giving some analytical remarks how I see the state of affairs of world politics, Europe politics, 42 00:05:46,630 --> 00:05:57,640 and then I will give some ideas of how I could imagine and what I propose as the input and 43 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:07,210 impulse of German foreign policy regarding European and global politics and policies. 44 00:06:07,210 --> 00:06:17,110 So I start with the West. If you want to understand the West in our days, 45 00:06:17,110 --> 00:06:25,630 I think it would be a good idea to recall the great days of the West to understand 46 00:06:25,630 --> 00:06:32,440 what the West really was about and what the difference is compared to today. 47 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:46,900 And certainly the great period of the West was the Cold War, a time when everything was at stake, 48 00:06:46,900 --> 00:07:04,360 when it was about the survival not only of peoples of states but of mankind, because the ideological confrontation between the West and the East. 49 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:18,400 Well, that that it included that it included a military, the nuclear threat, and it included the destruction of the enemy. 50 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:26,110 And because this was a mutual threat, it included the self-destruction of mankind. 51 00:07:26,110 --> 00:07:46,220 So the West and the East were part of a confrontation which brought about the very physical existence of people, people and mankind. 52 00:07:46,220 --> 00:07:57,310 Both sides promised to deter, to contain and to defeat the enemy. 53 00:07:57,310 --> 00:08:04,090 I think this was the glue which forged the West. 54 00:08:04,090 --> 00:08:14,500 Of course, but also the shared values. But there were times when natal members were not democracies, they were not governed by the rule of law. 55 00:08:14,500 --> 00:08:24,100 So the relation forged by having an enemy, which was perceived as a threat to life. 56 00:08:24,100 --> 00:08:32,760 This was what forged the West. And by underlining this. 57 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:47,730 Characteristic, which constitute what all by underlining that the enemy constituted the West, we can see the very different situation we are in today. 58 00:08:47,730 --> 00:08:53,430 So the question is the West has to answer. 59 00:08:53,430 --> 00:09:00,840 Can the West, can we sustain without the enemy? 60 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:11,970 I consider this question dialectical, only seemingly paradoxical and only slightly provocative. 61 00:09:11,970 --> 00:09:19,260 Perhaps you could object that the question has been answered throughout the last 30 years, 62 00:09:19,260 --> 00:09:27,630 because in the last 30 years we did not have an enemy of the Soviet Union has collapsed. 63 00:09:27,630 --> 00:09:32,370 The Warsaw Pact does not exist any longer, and they too exists. 64 00:09:32,370 --> 00:09:39,750 The European Union exists. We have a G-7, so the institutions of the West have preserved. 65 00:09:39,750 --> 00:09:52,240 However, I would object to this. That for four to five years of the last 30 years, it was not. 66 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:58,780 There was no necessity that the West defines itself again because the 20 of the 67 00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:07,930 first 25 years of the last 30 years were characterised by the victory of the West. 68 00:10:07,930 --> 00:10:18,790 The West had survived. We have seen we had seen then a unilateral Western order and the global question, 69 00:10:18,790 --> 00:10:29,050 or the question of global order seemed to be answered by the West through the West and in favour of the West. 70 00:10:29,050 --> 00:10:44,200 We thought that after the end of the Cold War in 1899, we had achieved perpetual peace in Europe, at least a perpetual peace order. 71 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:54,520 And I think nobody could have imagined had imagined during this time of 25 years that this 72 00:10:54,520 --> 00:11:03,700 eternity would only last 25 years because we seem that we had learnt the lesson of history. 73 00:11:03,700 --> 00:11:13,750 The lesson out of the first half of the 20th century, which brought about militarism, nationalism, two world wars. 74 00:11:13,750 --> 00:11:22,330 So we thought that we had learnt the lesson of the first half of the 20th century. 75 00:11:22,330 --> 00:11:30,700 But it is now for only six years, and it started with a new Russian foreign policy. 76 00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:42,460 And then other events happened that the question of global order is back again on the table. 77 00:11:42,460 --> 00:11:50,470 It's only for the last few six years that the order question is back, 78 00:11:50,470 --> 00:11:59,530 and it is since then that we have started to ask ourselves again Does the West still exist? 79 00:11:59,530 --> 00:12:11,200 Is the West the same? Can you imagine the West as a simple continuation of the success model of the post war era, 80 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:20,200 which is more or less the general implication and suggestion when we talk about the West that we generally assume and suggest? 81 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:24,610 Yes, we know what the West is, we know the Western values. 82 00:12:24,610 --> 00:12:31,060 And so if there is the need to act as the West again, we just should do it. 83 00:12:31,060 --> 00:12:40,810 However, it is not as easy of that because the geopolitical circumstances have fundamentally changed and it is not 84 00:12:40,810 --> 00:12:51,520 the enemy which constitutes the West and defines the West as it was in the Cold War and the Cold War days. 85 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:59,680 What has changed is that we have seen and are seeing the unravelling of order. 86 00:12:59,680 --> 00:13:10,770 We see conflicts and violations of international law, which would not have been imaginable during the Cold War days, for example, 87 00:13:10,770 --> 00:13:18,430 of the intervention of one country into the into a neighbourhood country, the annexation of a part of a neighbouring country. 88 00:13:18,430 --> 00:13:30,160 This would not have been possible under the circumstance of the Cold War because it would have been seen as a major escalation and it would end. 89 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:38,830 It was avoided and not perpetrated because of the threat of the of the adverse power. 90 00:13:38,830 --> 00:13:48,820 So we see even more conflict. We see more a violation of international law human rights than in the Cold War days. 91 00:13:48,820 --> 00:14:02,020 This is because as a consequence of the unravelling of order and because of the loss and disappearance of 92 00:14:02,020 --> 00:14:12,820 the limits which the relationship of enemies has brought about that we see a new pattern of power conflict, 93 00:14:12,820 --> 00:14:18,400 which is characterised by the emergence of great power politics. 94 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:23,710 I do not see re-emergence because I consider this to be entirely new. 95 00:14:23,710 --> 00:14:27,940 So the emergence of great power politics, 96 00:14:27,940 --> 00:14:43,490 which conflates with regional conflicts and which makes these conflicts nearly unsolvable and which leads to a two to wars and conflicts which do not. 97 00:14:43,490 --> 00:14:55,490 No, any limits. And and any kind of limit in how to conduct these conflicts, we see it, particularly in the Middle East, 98 00:14:55,490 --> 00:15:10,760 we see in our days in Syria war crimes on a daily basis, and there is hardly any response to even the fact that the war crimes are perpetrated. 99 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:26,990 What is part of the new geopolitical situation, which puts the West into doubt, is that the former leader of the West, the United States of America, 100 00:15:26,990 --> 00:15:36,170 which had assumed a unique role in leading the world in shaping world order, 101 00:15:36,170 --> 00:15:47,030 have in the person of the president of this country deliberately, voluntarily abandoned exactly this role. 102 00:15:47,030 --> 00:15:58,070 So the West, without the former leader of the West, certainly is something different than before. 103 00:15:58,070 --> 00:16:09,860 So what are the implications of the new geopolitical set of circumstances being fundamentally different 104 00:16:09,860 --> 00:16:21,470 to the period when the West was forged and defined in a in a distinct way during the Cold War? 105 00:16:21,470 --> 00:16:32,240 I want to elaborate on this question briefly from both perspectives, from the United States and from the European perspective. 106 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:38,360 As I've already mentioned from the angle of the incumbent as president, 107 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:48,950 he has given an answer and the answer of the United States president is America. 108 00:16:48,950 --> 00:16:54,230 It's our country. It's Northern Alliance. 109 00:16:54,230 --> 00:17:01,880 It's a zero-sum perspective on how to win at the cost of the others. 110 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:14,000 And it's not a concept of the West. However, I think this policy has not yet become the starts. 111 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:19,520 Isn't there is on that tour of this country. 112 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:29,200 It does not resonate in Congress, so it is not an entrenched. 113 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:39,580 Policy and definition of the country is not being part of a defining west. 114 00:17:39,580 --> 00:17:43,030 The Western alliance, however, 115 00:17:43,030 --> 00:17:54,190 we should not be in any doubt even if a candidate of the Democratic Party were to be elected president at the end of this year. 116 00:17:54,190 --> 00:18:08,590 We, the Europeans, are certainly not to see any kind of a return of a status folding back or return of a status quo ante. 117 00:18:08,590 --> 00:18:15,070 So definitely on a bipartisan basis in the United States, 118 00:18:15,070 --> 00:18:21,790 there is a consensus that the Cold War is over and that the role the United States played 119 00:18:21,790 --> 00:18:31,210 in cooperation with the European partners will not come back in present and future times, 120 00:18:31,210 --> 00:18:52,630 perhaps. We, the Europeans, are going to see a new offer to the West to re-emerge by identifying an enemy successor. 121 00:18:52,630 --> 00:18:59,470 Perhaps the Americans are close to offer a new enemy. 122 00:18:59,470 --> 00:19:11,050 And of course, I'm talking about China. There is quite a bipartisan view in Congress and in the country that the Sino American 123 00:19:11,050 --> 00:19:22,540 competition constitutes the new dichotomy and that this constitutes the new rivalry. 124 00:19:22,540 --> 00:19:27,910 And perhaps we are asked to embrace as Europeans and allies. 125 00:19:27,910 --> 00:19:38,650 We are asked to embrace a kind of new Cold War within you competitor, a new enemy. 126 00:19:38,650 --> 00:19:54,880 I think it would be right to identify China as the single biggest challenge to the West in the new geopolitical environment. 127 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:59,680 However, I think the Europeans are not ready to embrace a new Cold War. 128 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:07,510 And I think we are not ready to engage in a relationship of hostility with vis-a-vis China. 129 00:20:07,510 --> 00:20:17,290 China is, from a European perspective, a compelling argument for the necessity of the West. 130 00:20:17,290 --> 00:20:22,540 But I think the European Commission, Mr President, 131 00:20:22,540 --> 00:20:35,500 put it right by defining China as everything at the same time for us as a partner with with with whom we deal necessarily. 132 00:20:35,500 --> 00:20:47,920 For example, when it comes to combat to combating climate change, it would be a a a a a a unwinnable battle against climate change. 133 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:58,480 If China would not be a part of this battle. China is a competitor for the Europeans, not always a fair competitor. 134 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:11,230 So this is our attempt, an endeavour to to a to insist on a fair relationship competitor relationship on the basis of reciprocity. 135 00:21:11,230 --> 00:21:20,650 And China certainly is a systemic rival, and there is no other country in the European Commission or any other institution of 136 00:21:20,650 --> 00:21:29,710 the European Union ever before has attributed the term systemic rival to anybody else. 137 00:21:29,710 --> 00:21:43,240 But to be clear, this these three levels will remain essential for the Europeans in dealing with China and this the the Europeans 138 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:49,960 should bring in this perception and analysis of China and proposal how to deal with China into a trance, 139 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:57,520 a necessary transatlantic dialogue between the Americans and the Europeans on how to deal with China. 140 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:08,290 One of the intellectual and political challenges we have to do as homework in the transatlantic alliance is to conduct the dialogue, 141 00:22:08,290 --> 00:22:12,970 the transatlantic dialogue on how to deal with China. 142 00:22:12,970 --> 00:22:20,260 But apart from that, for the Americans, 143 00:22:20,260 --> 00:22:31,180 irrespective of the party of which is represented in the White House and has majorities in both houses of Parliament, 144 00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:40,840 there might be a possibility, perhaps a perceived possibility that they can go it alone. 145 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:49,960 It's different to the times of the Cold War, where the West was seen as necessary in the national interest, 146 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:55,420 where the West, of course, was also a vehicle, an instrument of projecting power. 147 00:22:55,420 --> 00:23:06,040 Today, the question if the United States can go it alone and do not need the West to survive and sustain as a nation, 148 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:14,780 I think is not decided yet for the Europeans. 149 00:23:14,780 --> 00:23:25,280 The existence of the West is a prerequisite not only for remaining relevant in the world, 150 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:33,680 but it is a precondition of self or a condition of self preservation without being 151 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:43,340 embedded in the West without a vivid and strong and viable transatlantic relation. 152 00:23:43,340 --> 00:23:57,560 I'm quite sure the Europeans. Do not have the power and the sovereignty to sustain as a political entity. 153 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:07,320 So there is much talk about European sovereignty in these days, and there might be parts where sovereignty is possible, for example, 154 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:14,960 digital sovereignty by launching and implementing a 5G standard within the 155 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:22,880 European Union and at least including different countries of the European Union. 156 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:33,620 I think this is possible, but without the cooperation and alliance with the United States, 157 00:24:33,620 --> 00:24:38,570 I can't see that even regarding that, even in our neighbourhood. 158 00:24:38,570 --> 00:24:45,260 For example, speaking of the Middle East and of Northern Africa and the Sahel, 159 00:24:45,260 --> 00:24:55,970 the European Union and the Europeans would be able to exert their influence and we would be driven apart. 160 00:24:55,970 --> 00:25:03,470 So from it, you're not a from an American and European perspective. 161 00:25:03,470 --> 00:25:11,450 The continuation of the existence of the West is different to the Cold War. 162 00:25:11,450 --> 00:25:24,160 Times of a different existential has different existential dimension. 163 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:35,440 So my second remark is then in further developing the thought and the perspective of the Europeans, 164 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,880 given the description of their state of world affairs, unravelling of order, 165 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:51,070 abandonment of leadership, role of the United States, a different situation of interests we have seen, 166 00:25:51,070 --> 00:25:59,650 there is no doubt that this situation should mean that this is the hour of Europe. 167 00:25:59,650 --> 00:26:06,730 However, in this situation, which should be the hour of Europe to unite, 168 00:26:06,730 --> 00:26:17,950 to bring our act together, we know that Europe is as divided and paralysed as never before. 169 00:26:17,950 --> 00:26:29,980 Also that, I think, is only seemingly paradoxical because the same causes, 170 00:26:29,980 --> 00:26:43,180 which leads to the unravelling of global order are the causes which shake European societies and Western societies to the billions, 171 00:26:43,180 --> 00:26:51,280 the loss of certainties, the fragmentation of societies. 172 00:26:51,280 --> 00:27:05,020 Imbalances, the lack of the nation state to wield power, to halt, to state and to to stay in control of developments. 173 00:27:05,020 --> 00:27:18,250 All this has shaken our societies to the bones and has fundamentally changed the psyche of Western societies. 174 00:27:18,250 --> 00:27:27,430 So this means that in the hour where and when we should come together, we are weakened. 175 00:27:27,430 --> 00:27:36,970 And I would say even paralysed how to deal with this predicament. 176 00:27:36,970 --> 00:27:51,250 Which is constituted by the sheer necessity that the West exists in order to sustain ourselves was a new contribution of the Europeans as part 177 00:27:51,250 --> 00:28:05,080 of the West on the one side and on the other side that we have become so divided and even regarding the very foundations of the European Union, 178 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:10,840 which is our normative identity. Who are we? 179 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:18,310 The struggle between those who stick to the traditional identity and the definition of the European Union, 180 00:28:18,310 --> 00:28:28,150 the liberal democracy and those who argue and fight for illiberal democracy. 181 00:28:28,150 --> 00:28:31,810 And there is no compromise between liberal and illiberal. 182 00:28:31,810 --> 00:28:35,860 You can't be a little bit liberal. 183 00:28:35,860 --> 00:28:41,800 You can't be. You can't only have some portion of the rule of law. 184 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:50,020 So we are really struggling about what defines us in a fundamentally normative way. 185 00:28:50,020 --> 00:28:55,810 How should we and can we deal with this predicament? In my view, 186 00:28:55,810 --> 00:29:02,020 it's clear that the nation state and each individual European nation state 187 00:29:02,020 --> 00:29:08,110 is overstretched with the global challenges we are facing on the other side. 188 00:29:08,110 --> 00:29:18,610 I have unfortunately outlined that the EU 27 or the European Union, on the level of the 27 nation states, 189 00:29:18,610 --> 00:29:28,850 lacks the unity and cohesion to address and act on a global stage. 190 00:29:28,850 --> 00:29:44,240 I think the existential challenge for the European Union is to transfer itself from the very successful internal project into an external project. 191 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:53,330 In other words, the European Union has to become an actor in foreign policies, in foreign relations. 192 00:29:53,330 --> 00:30:04,580 We have not to confine ourselves within our borders, but we have to define our role in the world and vis-a-vis the world. 193 00:30:04,580 --> 00:30:12,230 How to do that. I think it can only be done by an avant garde group. 194 00:30:12,230 --> 00:30:19,160 It can only be done by nation states who progress, 195 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:35,600 who agree on several on different points of a foreign policy agenda and start doing exercising a common foreign policy. 196 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:42,140 The shaping countries of the European Union, France and Germany. 197 00:30:42,140 --> 00:30:54,020 And post-Brexit Britain, which unfortunately has left the European Union but not Europe, are asked and required to build the group, 198 00:30:54,020 --> 00:31:05,660 which does not create new institutions but just start doing foreign policy on set on a selective agenda, for example, 199 00:31:05,660 --> 00:31:17,750 in stabilising Iraq, for example, in agreeing on a on a on a common strategy vis-a-vis China and a few other things. 200 00:31:17,750 --> 00:31:28,310 I think this is a format which is ambitious, but which is without any alternative and is at least doable. 201 00:31:28,310 --> 00:31:37,460 It should not be confined to the E3, but it should be open to all members of the European Union. 202 00:31:37,460 --> 00:31:44,390 We should do everything in order to get the Poles as a part of this format. 203 00:31:44,390 --> 00:31:55,610 In order to avoid that, this foreign policy group could be criticised and disparaged as a Western First-Class European group, 204 00:31:55,610 --> 00:32:02,720 so it should try to bridge the gap to the middle and eastern European countries. 205 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:09,350 So it should be E3 plus, perhaps not always, including the same countries. 206 00:32:09,350 --> 00:32:18,080 Perhaps regarding Libya could be another group compared to other foreign policy challenges. 207 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:30,410 But it should in general be an E3 plus group. My final remark refers to Germany. 208 00:32:30,410 --> 00:32:46,640 For Germany, it's a different challenge because we have the disruption in our history because in the first decades after the war, 209 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:52,100 nobody asked for a leading role of Germany in foreign policy. 210 00:32:52,100 --> 00:32:54,320 Of course not. 211 00:32:54,320 --> 00:33:07,760 It was about the hope and chance to reintegrate into the international system, but not in any way to assume any kind of international role. 212 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:18,440 And after the Cold War, after 40 years and we've developed to be a reliable front state and after that exercise after 40 years, 213 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:31,730 nobody thought that now the time of a decisive, active, strong, assertive foreign policy were there. 214 00:33:31,730 --> 00:33:39,830 But instead of that, everybody thought now, as I mentioned earlier, we have achieved perpetual peace. 215 00:33:39,830 --> 00:33:50,840 We can take the peace dividend, we can demilitarise, and we have done so in Germany and in other countries. 216 00:33:50,840 --> 00:34:03,590 So for Germany, it's only for the last six years that we have been forced to face the demand that Germany is crucial. 217 00:34:03,590 --> 00:34:15,290 That's Germany is important for the emergence of a possible European format in foreign policy because without Germany, 218 00:34:15,290 --> 00:34:28,610 any kind of E3 format or any other imaginable format of acting together internationally is not imaginable is not conceivable. 219 00:34:28,610 --> 00:34:37,730 So Germany is confronted to assume a fundamentally different role in our times than in the time before. 220 00:34:37,730 --> 00:34:51,920 However, we have to accept this role because we have to accept the new reality, which consists in the fact that no other nation state is ready, 221 00:34:51,920 --> 00:35:00,530 willing and able to fund the security interests of the Europeans, including German interests. 222 00:35:00,530 --> 00:35:10,790 It is that the chancellor mentioned before the 2017 election, we have to take our security into our own hands together with our European partners, 223 00:35:10,790 --> 00:35:21,440 not against the United States, but we have to bring in a stronger European pillar in the transatlantic relations, in the transatlantic relation. 224 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,630 So for that, we have to be, we have to assume a strategic role. 225 00:35:26,630 --> 00:35:43,220 We have to be a driver in the development that Europe has to go beyond the borders in order to pursue our interests and to stand for our values. 226 00:35:43,220 --> 00:35:48,290 This is of an existential importance. It's not only strategic, 227 00:35:48,290 --> 00:35:57,890 but it is existential that Germany further develops its understanding and the idea of itself as a 228 00:35:57,890 --> 00:36:11,400 European partner state to be a part of a foreign policy acting forward in the in the European sense. 229 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:22,050 It's difficult for us, and I want to close with comments regarding recent developments in Syria, 230 00:36:22,050 --> 00:36:26,580 in the Middle East and in our southern neighbourhood by this, 231 00:36:26,580 --> 00:36:37,440 but I want to describe the situation in order to underline how necessary it is that we have to assume a policy. 232 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:43,170 Otherwise, we will only be the objective and the receiving part of the problems in our neighbourhood. 233 00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:50,910 And this is the emerging Syrian Turkish refugee crisis again. 234 00:36:50,910 --> 00:37:02,340 This crisis has not come in any way at a surprise because when the Syrian Russian attack started, 235 00:37:02,340 --> 00:37:10,140 when the two when Syria under Assad and Russia under Putin started to apply again, 236 00:37:10,140 --> 00:37:16,500 their vortex, its tactics they already applied and perpetrated in Aleppo. 237 00:37:16,500 --> 00:37:33,720 It was absolutely clear of what was going to happen. It was a it was a policy to bomb civilians to target civilians by air bombings in order to make 238 00:37:33,720 --> 00:37:42,240 people flee away from the area so that the Assad's troops can better fight on the ground. 239 00:37:42,240 --> 00:37:54,090 Now we have one close to one million refugees at the Syrian-Turkish border, and Europe has not assumed a policy until today. 240 00:37:54,090 --> 00:38:05,940 A policy would mean that we have to address the political course of what is happening in Syria, and this is the Russian bombing behind the refugees. 241 00:38:05,940 --> 00:38:12,120 If there were not a war, the participation of Russia, 242 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:18,360 we would not see a war in Syria because Assad would not be able to wage this war and 243 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:25,770 we would not see refugees causing problems for Turkey and for the European Union's, 244 00:38:25,770 --> 00:38:33,620 for the European Union. So this is another example that. 245 00:38:33,620 --> 00:38:50,930 The Europeans, Germany, France and others have to bring together their act in order to pursue a policy for our own interests. 246 00:38:50,930 --> 00:39:00,110 It's difficult for us, but in order to stand up for European values and for our interests, 247 00:39:00,110 --> 00:39:08,240 we have to further develop a European contribution to a Western policy. 248 00:39:08,240 --> 00:39:17,810 This is what the historic situation we are in demands and requires what we have to do. 249 00:39:17,810 --> 00:39:30,140 We have to talk about this. We have to make this a part of the public debate in order to inform our voters and people 250 00:39:30,140 --> 00:39:39,830 what the historic challenge is for European nation states and for the European Union. 251 00:39:39,830 --> 00:39:46,790 So the West is not only defined and cannot only be defined by the past. 252 00:39:46,790 --> 00:39:58,760 The West will not be what it was during the Cold War days, but the West has to be redefined and the fundamentally new geopolitical circumstances, 253 00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:05,510 and it has to be defined by a European nation states in order to further exist. 254 00:40:05,510 --> 00:40:10,520 It's a question for the Europeans of to be or not to be. 255 00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:29,730 Thank you for your attention. Came out of it for a very clear, strong and challenging impulse for Gideon. 256 00:40:29,730 --> 00:40:34,620 OK. I mean, you know that? 257 00:40:34,620 --> 00:40:41,520 Yeah, thank you very much. No, but I think we're all both sort of touched and impressed that in the middle of this important political fight, 258 00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,460 you took the time to come to Oxford. 259 00:40:44,460 --> 00:40:51,540 I'd like to reassure you that although some refer to Oxford as the home of lost causes in Britain, we prefer to see it as the route to power. 260 00:40:51,540 --> 00:40:55,950 So this is the time. 261 00:40:55,950 --> 00:41:05,880 But you gave a very stimulating account of of the challenges that we will jointly face in the West. 262 00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:14,430 I was very struck by your account of what a suggestion do we need an enemy for this whole enterprise to hang together? 263 00:41:14,430 --> 00:41:21,780 It struck me that we've actually been been through at least three potential enemies since the end of the Cold War. 264 00:41:21,780 --> 00:41:23,850 I mean, I remember after 911, 265 00:41:23,850 --> 00:41:32,100 the Americans trying to reinvent NATO and and the West as a whole as the key force in the battle against Islamist terrorism. 266 00:41:32,100 --> 00:41:40,110 And indeed, that led to the commitment to Afghanistan, which is not ending well if it if it ends at all. 267 00:41:40,110 --> 00:41:43,500 Then of course, you mentioned Russia plus Crimea. 268 00:41:43,500 --> 00:41:50,670 And I think for many in Europe, certainly and in Eastern Europe, that would remain the central challenge. 269 00:41:50,670 --> 00:41:59,790 That was that the old challenges, the new challenge, if you like. And then, of course, China and there. 270 00:41:59,790 --> 00:42:04,710 I mean, I think that the current debate about far away in the United Kingdom is very interesting. 271 00:42:04,710 --> 00:42:12,810 And I know you played a really important role in that debate in Germany because my expectation would 272 00:42:12,810 --> 00:42:18,330 have been that the British would have almost automatically gone with the Americans on Huawei. 273 00:42:18,330 --> 00:42:27,750 It's very interesting that they happened, and it suggests that if the Americans do have an idea, 274 00:42:27,750 --> 00:42:32,560 you to kind of try to enlist the Europeans into a joint struggle against China, 275 00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:39,750 that they're going to have to have difficulty because if even the UK, with its much vaunted special relationship, 276 00:42:39,750 --> 00:42:43,230 won't follow them, who will, you know, 277 00:42:43,230 --> 00:42:47,970 perhaps in the question and answer that you can elaborate on your own views on that because I know you've played and 278 00:42:47,970 --> 00:42:55,650 continue to play an important role in the Bundestag in trying to prevent Germany getting too enmeshed with Weiwei. 279 00:42:55,650 --> 00:42:58,710 Listening to you, though, I also wondered whether, you know, forth enemy one, 280 00:42:58,710 --> 00:43:08,520 a rather more difficult one to unite against is ourselves in the sense that the challenge to the West may be coming from within. 281 00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:17,190 You were, I thought, slightly dismissive of the idea that the West was about values. 282 00:43:17,190 --> 00:43:21,480 I mean, I think you quite correctly said, look, in the Cold War was more complicated than that. 283 00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:28,830 There were times, you know, most of the time Turkey was not a democracy, was an important member of NATO and so on. 284 00:43:28,830 --> 00:43:40,980 Nonetheless, I think in our kind of self-definition, the idea of the democratic west against the totalitarian authoritarian ethos was crucial. 285 00:43:40,980 --> 00:43:47,430 And the idea that the West represented universal values continued after 1989. 286 00:43:47,430 --> 00:43:49,590 Famously, you know, the end of Australia. 287 00:43:49,590 --> 00:43:57,900 And in a sense, I think that gave the West a brief sense of security that our values have triumphed and now that we're going to go global there. 288 00:43:57,900 --> 00:44:04,410 But I think part of the significance of Donald Trump is that some of it you talked about, 289 00:44:04,410 --> 00:44:10,170 which is the America First, which obviously is hugely challenging to the idea of alliances and so on, 290 00:44:10,170 --> 00:44:20,610 but also that he has dropped the idea of America and by extension, the West as morally superior to their adversaries. 291 00:44:20,610 --> 00:44:26,220 He doesn't really spend much time talking about human rights much, 292 00:44:26,220 --> 00:44:34,680 some at already or aughts or saying, you know that he expects democracy to triumph in China. 293 00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:38,820 None of that. On the contrary, he sees this as a great power bargain. 294 00:44:38,820 --> 00:44:43,920 And I think famously, and you know, in some ways, I would say full marks, 295 00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:50,100 but a couple of marks for honesty when he was asked in the campaign about somebody said, 296 00:44:50,100 --> 00:44:55,860 But you know, the Russians who you seem keen to relaunch with, look at all the people they've killed. 297 00:44:55,860 --> 00:45:05,310 And he said, Let me tell you, we've killed a lot of people. So he he actually could have his back against the idea of a moral difference. 298 00:45:05,310 --> 00:45:11,940 And of course, he's not alone. There are now within the European Union. 299 00:45:11,940 --> 00:45:21,640 There's the Hungarians, as you alluded to, that Orban's idea of a liberal democracy and indeed the EU now. 300 00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:28,390 Is at war too strong, struggling with a couple of its members, both Poland and Hungary, over these issues of fundamental values. 301 00:45:28,390 --> 00:45:37,330 And if the EU doesn't win that struggle, does it lose the sense of of itself or does it just have to try to reinvent itself as something else, 302 00:45:37,330 --> 00:45:43,450 not as a union of values that we all phrase we often hear in the EU, and I think probably dear to most people here. 303 00:45:43,450 --> 00:45:45,700 But just as an alliance, 304 00:45:45,700 --> 00:45:52,930 a group of countries that happen to be next door to each other face common enemies and maybe whatever their political differences, 305 00:45:52,930 --> 00:45:58,810 well, they'll just ignore those and they'll have to try to work together to push push back against them. 306 00:45:58,810 --> 00:46:07,660 Or is that actually going to be not enough to keep the Europeans together because they're they 307 00:46:07,660 --> 00:46:16,480 won't really agree on on what their common interests are if they're absent that glue of values? 308 00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:22,750 I think the West also defined its power briefly and again. 309 00:46:22,750 --> 00:46:30,400 You alluded to that. But this idea of predominance that we were with one not only won the Cold War, but we were then able to save the world. 310 00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:36,340 And I think another thing that is eroding the sense of the value of the West is certainly in Europe, 311 00:46:36,340 --> 00:46:42,040 a sense that that period is ending and the confusion about how to respond to that. 312 00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:45,910 Do you adapt to a rise in China? Do you confront a rising China? 313 00:46:45,910 --> 00:46:49,420 Do you confront a rising China with the United States, 314 00:46:49,420 --> 00:46:58,600 even as the United States at times seems to regard the European Union as as much of a challenge as China, at least on the trade front? 315 00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:07,990 So I think that is a confusion, and I just to end with this very intriguing suggestion you made of the E.U. three, which of course, 316 00:47:07,990 --> 00:47:17,920 will be music to Britain's is at a time when the British are very worried about sliding off the kind of diplomatic relevant stage for that, 317 00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:29,620 for a for a leading German politician to come over to Britain and say, actually, on the contrary, we want to incorporate you into an EU £3 billion. 318 00:47:29,620 --> 00:47:33,820 But I wonder, I think there are obvious practical questions. 319 00:47:33,820 --> 00:47:36,040 You know what, that split the EU? 320 00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:44,650 How will the Italians and the Spanish and everyone else respond to that in making that effort reaching out to the UK? 321 00:47:44,650 --> 00:47:53,950 Do you risk losing what you've already got, which is actually the unity of the European Union without actually gaining a functioning alternative? 322 00:47:53,950 --> 00:47:59,410 I don't want to discourage you too much because obviously it's an attractive idea from the British point of view. 323 00:47:59,410 --> 00:48:06,760 But I think a finished by coming back to the question that you started with, which is this idea of the common enemy. 324 00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:14,950 Let's say you can get over the difficulties of the institutional difficulties, the organisational difficulties do. 325 00:48:14,950 --> 00:48:25,180 The British, the French and the Germans have even this group of three countries have a common analysis of the challenges that they face. 326 00:48:25,180 --> 00:48:29,620 And I don't think that they yet do. Maybe they will. But after all, 327 00:48:29,620 --> 00:48:35,140 part of what led Britain to Brexit was that a large part of the Conservative Party 328 00:48:35,140 --> 00:48:39,520 believed that the biggest threat to Britain was the European Union was indeed. 329 00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:45,940 You know, if you talk to build parts of Germany, they may be getting over that and they may feel that they're beyond that. 330 00:48:45,940 --> 00:48:51,310 But it's possible that if there's a very difficult struggle over this trade agreement, 331 00:48:51,310 --> 00:48:58,420 that that antagonism to the European Union will continue to loom largest in the minds of at least some important Brits, 332 00:48:58,420 --> 00:49:09,070 the ones who actually happen to be in government at the moment, then you know, for France, who do they really see as the threat? 333 00:49:09,070 --> 00:49:11,050 You know, at the moment they're reaching out to Russia. 334 00:49:11,050 --> 00:49:18,490 I think some of the old globalist ideas about equidistant between the United States and Russia, 335 00:49:18,490 --> 00:49:22,660 Europe as a third force of coming back, maybe they make more sense in the modern context. 336 00:49:22,660 --> 00:49:27,220 But I'm not sure that that is somewhere where Germany would would yet be prepared to go. 337 00:49:27,220 --> 00:49:36,670 So the E.U. three would be a great idea, but I'm not sure that we yet have the common analysis that you need to underpin it. 338 00:49:36,670 --> 00:49:43,990 And maybe it will require some big external event, a shock that that Britain, 339 00:49:43,990 --> 00:49:50,200 France and Germany all interpret in the same way to make that a real, workable proposition. 340 00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:55,776 Thank you very much.