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Thank you, technical staff. Welcome, everyone. What I think is going to be a very exciting part of the process is quite possible.

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This college can always see a future that's going to mean something great on the walls of the college.

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It's my great pleasure to welcome you here to what is both International College and Oxford students come this

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year for 73 different countries and now want to bring in people from around the world to study the world.

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We have a number of settings attached to the college. The impression of an emerging centre, which is what I mean.

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That's right.

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And I think we have here conversations about major issues in the world and we have people who know a great deal about this part of the world.

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And I'm very lucky tonight to be having that. I like to call and Coach Hasty, who is the director of the Russian process, says, this is our chair.

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We hope that the Russian and Iranians these sentiments and I'd like to welcome all of you to this year's lecture.

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Jeffrey is generous sponsors of the activities of the centre and through that support

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were able to stage events like this for many several times throughout the year.

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We would like to thank the Chancellor and the distinguished members of the panel for joining us this evening.

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We would also like to thank you. I'm the pinch of foundation for making this event possible.

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Unfortunately, as you know,

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the current situation in Ukraine and the escalation of events has meant that Mr. Pinchuk was not able to attack on this occasion.

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This year's lecture deals with a very important time issue from when we first proposed this seminar, Baku, September.

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The situation, of course, is very different than the main question concern the building of it among the prospects for European integration.

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Today, the concern is Ukrainian territorial integrity, especially in light of the referendum being held in Crimea this Sunday.

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So now we might consider the ways in which the outcome of this referendum is likely to affect relations internationally and in the region.

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We very much look forward to hearing your views and to those of all speakers on these questions.

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And you should note this event will be broadcast. So if you ask your question, I'm afraid you'll need to sign a consent form.

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I've been told that will be available from all student helpers.

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Emily, I'm Stephanie. That is Stephanie and I will be available after the seminar.

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Thank you. Thank you very much indeed.

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And I'd like to underline, as the warden has done,

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the my congratulations to the centre on showing such a timely sense in choosing the subject for today's discussion.

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And I'd just like to also underline the fact that all those of you who signed the consent form or also, as you probably know,

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resigning from any commitments which incidentally the Government may have made under the health and safety.

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So you lose out on that as well. I just want to very briefly to introduce the three panellists and then to say one thing and to offer a

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couple of brief anecdotes which sort of illustrate aspects of what we'll be talking about this evening.

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But first of all, to introduce the panellists, first of all in Victor Pinchuk Place is Professor Gwyn Sensei from Nuffield,

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and I think before that who perhaps contemporaneously as Anthony,

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who is a great expert on the matters that we're going to be discussing, not least the Ukraine and Crimea,

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but has also written about post-communist transitions, about the process of democratisation,

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about migration, about the European Union's neighbourhood policy brackets,

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what that close brackets and other issues which we'll be debating, I'm sure, during the course of this afternoon and evening.

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We're obviously delighted that President Kwasniewski is with us today.

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We first met at a discussion in Kharkov about two years ago when I was there with Timothy and others.

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He was elected, as you know, twice as president of Poland.

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And he helped to secure Poland's such a very good transition into the European Union and into later helped to anchor a democracy in Poland.

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And to put Poland on its course to spectacular economic growth in comparison with the

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rest of the European Union is also a very valuable contribution to the scene because he,

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of course, worked in the Ukraine after the Orange Revolution and helped to make what seems to be the a hopeful beginning of the Orange Revolution.

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It's going to be interesting to hear what went wrong and why the reactions to what recently happened in Ukraine have been so different,

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not least in the Russian. And it's particularly happy chance that my old friend and colleague have you.

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Solana is also here because he too was involved in working after the Orange Revolution to secure what seemed to be a stable future for Ukraine.

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How he is a scientist, as you know, an academic minister, the secretary general of NATO's high representative to Europe's foreign and security policy,

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and a very distinguished diplomat with a huge reputation on both sides of the Atlantic and indeed both sides of the Pacific.

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So a great pleasure that he's back in Oxford today.

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Just three short points I wanted to make.

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And. I guess I've read most of Conrad over the years.

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Conrad born just southwest of here, the first bit of Conrad manuscript that exists is a handwritten note from Joseph Conrad, aged seven,

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writes to his grandmother to thank her for sending him some cakes, and after the expressions of gratitude, he signed Joseph Conrad's grandson.

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I was joking,

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and it's a reminder of the way in that borderland the territory has moved from one sovereignty to another over the over the years to anecdotes.

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First of all have you and I were EU Ukraine summit and I guess about 2002 with President Kuchma.

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And the summit took place in Yalta at the villa,

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which had been a which had provided meeting rooms for the Great Summit towards the end of the

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war between the allied leaders when they began to talk about the carving up in post-war Europe.

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And it was a lovely evening, and we had a great feast after the talks, which it got absolutely nowhere.

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But a great feast, not least because it was President Kuchma birthday.

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And I remember we had industrial sized clumps of caviar and each place its own.

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Kara, a wonderful ice vodka.

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And halfway through this birthday piece, Cushman, who had his personal phone on the table next to him and picks it up as it rings.

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And says, hello, Vladimir Putin fanning out to wish him a happy birthday.

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And I think both of them were making a point. Yes.

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The FSB. I think President Putin was making a point when I suspect that President Kuchma was making a point as well,

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that he had other fish, which he could provide. And the other anecdote, which has had, in a sense, sad consequences,

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is that my very first meeting as a European Commissioner for External Relations was with the then Ukrainian Foreign Minister Lankov.

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And what it tells you, what sort of turn, turn about over territory.

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And I saw him with a couple of my officials.

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And he asked me if I could describe.

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European Neighbourhood Policy.

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So I told him that at the heart of it, as far as the Ukraine was concerned, was that the European Union recognised Ukraine's European vocation.

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And he said, Could you say exactly what that European vocation is?

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And under pressure, I fessed up. That's the one thing it didn't include was actually being a member of the European Union.

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So I said, You're telling me that you accepted Turkey as a European country, but not Ukraine?

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At the end of the meeting after one of my German officials said it's quite embarrassing for people like me said both my

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parents were born in what is now the Ukraine and my father worked for the railways in what is now Ukraine for many years.

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So I hope that during the evening, when will doubtless talk about what the European Union should do in response to what's happened in Ukraine.

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When we talk about what Russia is likely to do.

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We can just consider, among other things, how Europe is treating its neighbourhood.

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Enlargement, after all, helped to secure the stability of Europe around our borders.

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And the things of the European Neighbourhood Policy have meant that we don't have that stability alone.

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The real challenge for the future of European policy.

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Nobody can blame Europe for what's happening in North Korea, and I think we should have been rather better around our own borders.

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And I think the first speaker is going to be president and then having a similar and then subsequent.

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Thank you very much for this opportunity to speak about such a hot topic like Ukraine and the future of this country.

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But for me, this was easy because I'm also the specialist, historian, politician, etc.

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It's not easy to say something what is not well-known for you, but please allow me to say some of my very personal remarks to the politician.

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And as a man who was involved in Ukrainian issues from the very beginning of the independence of Ukraine and throughout the course of the President,

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I collaborated very closely to construct and then of course, the abuse of the Ukrainian government.

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We were special envoys of European Union to find a solution in the so-called war on terrorism.

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And it was our idea to to to manage this this conflict and this crisis for

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all those terms about what was absolutely not according to the Constitution,

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that was a good solution for this political situation.

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And last months, many months before Vilnius Summit, I was a special envoy,

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together with former President of the European Parliament, Peskov, a special envoy of Parliament to Ukraine.

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And we try to eliminate the last obstacles before the signing of association agreement.

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And our task was, first of all, to to watch all this judiciary reforms.

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First, the cases of political prisoners, especially Madam Tymoshenko.

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And in this capacity, I visited together with parts of Ukraine 27 times.

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We spent 18, 18 months we spent with President Yanukovych, for example.

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War is an unforgettable 50 hours and of many, many talks.

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And, of course, our feeling when Ukraine decided or Yanukovich decided to make this U-turn was deepest frustration.

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But of course, the French speaking. We did it in.

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Predict that this situation can develop in such a way.

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And so we not not some sympathy and believe me, this is the dynamic of the process which we can observe since November last year.

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And I would like to organise my remarks with three elements because we have a conflict with some kind of film.

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We have Ukraine, we have Russia in the West and not only European Union,

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but the EU and the United States and Canada is quite important partner for all these

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things because in front of that we have quite a big and influential Ukrainian diaspora.

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Well, some words about Ukraine. Ukraine is is a special place in the world.

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It's a special country and a special state, because this is a state with a very, very proud history of all the state of independence.

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We can speak about independent Ukraine for some almost months after World War One.

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And now we can speak about 23 years of independence after 91.

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And this independence was to some extent a surprise to remember, because decision about independence was decided by referendum in December 1912.

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If I'm correct and I remember my talk, it's not true, because this time the leader of Ukraine and are going to Moscow,

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who was a leader of Soviet Union, and for both of them, the result of this referendum was absolutely suppressed.

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Gorbachev was sure that in this question, where Ukraine wants to stay in this reformed Soviet Union Commonwealth of independent

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states because of the new concept of Gorbachev or they want to be independent,

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his expectation was 55 to 45 in favour of this new, new Soviet Union to CIA for two preferences.

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But this was different. This the Nixon was 55 for independence, 45 for this experience.

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The result was surprisingly low was turnout was something around almost 90% and the result was 90.7% for independence.

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All the rest for this is yes, of course.

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Today when we discuss about this referendum is necessary to underline this independence for many voters,

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different substance for many of them was important for many of them.

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But the life of many of them was an escape from from Soviet Union sphere, etc., etc.

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But it necessary to say that 91 the independence of Ukraine was founded quite soon and the huge support of the 90% of voters,

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a huge part of of the society. And I think the first mistake in Russian perception of Ukraine is started in this moment,

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because they still think a lot of us I would say some were small, but they still think that that's at least 50% of Ukrainians.

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We are Russians and they are for Russians people. They think this is this is a wrong, wrong.

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And the first independence of Ukraine is quite fresh.

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24 years is not a very long time. And after this 23 years,

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we can say about some strength of this country and a lot of much more weaknesses of these guys to the strength of this country, in my opinion.

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Two elements. First is the identity,

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the national identity of Ukraine develop and strength in this 23 years much they really we can

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speak about Ukrainian nation and about much more about Ukraine than they do as 23 years ago.

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And this is very important next element of thinking about the future of this country.

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They are the identity, roughly speaking, the identity of Ukrainians.

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Is that absolutely much more stronger as, for example, Belarus.

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And the next point, which is the element of the process in the last 20 years, is increasing role and developing civil society.

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In my opinion,

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civil society of Ukraine is the strongest one among all post-Soviet countries in we have the first to signal on the strength of the civil society.

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It was the Orange Revolution to for 2005. And after this Orange Revolution, the process of of establishment of civil society, accelerated development.

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And today it is necessary to say that we have not only in Kiev, not only in western part of Ukraine, but also in eastern.

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And I visited many places of the east, like Donetsk, Petrovsky or Kharkiv.

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And this civil society maybe not so strong as in Kiev, but is existing and is important factor of everything.

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What is what is the. We have them.

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And then of course, the list of some positives elements is almost finished,

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unfortunately, and then is necessary to say about the weaknesses of the country.

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And among these weaknesses of the country is a law. The first is that this country is really historically, economically, very divided.

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And normally we speak about this division between East and West, Russian speaking,

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part of Ukraine speaking far more humanistic and more pro-Russian, etc.

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And this line is, of course, quite important.

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But unfortunately, this is not only one line of Ukraine, because now we see the next line of division of Crimea and the continent.

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And then we have a huge division between metropolis and problems, but affairs of the country.

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We have a huge difference between old generation, much more homeless of people's generation and young generation,

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much more westernised generation, which is better educated with a lot of experience from many places of the world, especially Poland.

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But not only they are travelling with us in many languages,

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etc. and we have of course the problem with the rich people and poor people because everything will happen in the last four years.

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This is something what is maybe the source of next dramatic tensions in this stuff.

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But one example, Poland and Ukraine stop the 23rd wealthiest and more or less from the same level.

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The GDP per capita was almost two today for a country that is 3.5 times bigger as Ukraine.

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But the regions for the regions business in Poland has no chances to be among first than Ukraine.

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The richest Ukrainians are extremely rich and the poor Ukraine.

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Our opportunity is to report and in my opinion, this is the next element of the tensions which can be very dramatic.

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The next in next month's, the next problem of the country, in the next weakness of this country is the weakness of the institutions of the state.

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And that is, of course, a complicated issue.

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But I think to allow the political elites in Ukraine, they are fighting against each other from the very beginning, in fact,

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only in very short period after the independence,

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who had some kind of bipartisan approach or such a common approach to main strategic elements of Ukraine.

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First, and this is the next difference between, for example,

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for my country and the EU and Poland for remain strategic goals like NATO's European Union, we have very wide bipartisan or many partisan support.

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Yesterday, the Senate celebrated 52 year anniversary of our new commitment,

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and especially with new circumstances and new situation, we realise how important it is for us to be in this position.

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But it was possible, but from the very beginning, main goals of our policy,

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strategic goals of foreign policy were accepted and supported by very wide spectrum of political forces in Ukraine.

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Unfortunately not. We have a very divided and spectrum of of of political parties, of politicians.

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And frankly speaking, especially since 2002, we have never ending war between these two main groups of politicians,

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pro-Western and pro-nuclear, and besides Yushchenko, Yanukovich and Yanukovich Tymoshenko last years.

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That is a such a very spectacular example of this never ending fight.

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And the talk of of Ukrainian parliament and the next evidences of this weakness of the state is corrupt.

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Corruption really in Ukraine is is is dramatic.

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And even more important is the corruption in Ukraine, especially during this time, was systematic,

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was it was an element of the system organised and conducted and led by the president of the country.

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And that is something what is what was true even when he was the president.

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And now we have a lot of information and a lot of them know that he was the leader of of this wall system, the corruption,

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state corruption, which is on all levels of of the society and under all levels of the of the public institutions in Ukraine.

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And, of course, next weakness of Ukraine is economy, which is very.

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Michael Stipe is not enough reformed in the last 20 years, is not modernised, is very much independent of the Russian market.

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And, of course, for the future of Ukraine, the modernisation of this whole structure,

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the entire structure of the economy is is a must is something what they have to do in very difficult social and political conditions,

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which we have now, and which, in my opinion, you are a little bit lost through the years.

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So Ukraine is in very difficult, internal, very difficult situation.

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And of course, this decision to go to the east or to the west is one of the strategic decisions of the country,

197
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but is very much combined with many of other elements which create such a complicated and quite dark picture of the situation in Ukraine.

198
00:26:14,430 --> 00:26:17,170
Then next element of this triangle, Russia,

199
00:26:17,850 --> 00:26:27,420
both Russia and we say some simple words because in mind that I was asked many times if I understand the politics of Putin, what he's doing.

200
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:40,590
I'm so sorry that my answer would be so simple. Let me be an honest person that Putin has one goal.

201
00:26:40,770 --> 00:26:45,600
And this goal is to create euro zone, to create new superpower.

202
00:26:45,900 --> 00:26:50,500
And for this superpower, he needs Ukraine. He needs in time.

203
00:26:51,580 --> 00:26:55,720
He needs, of course, Crimea is a part of Ukraine. He needs eastern Ukraine is a part of it.

204
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:01,270
But his main goal is to have Ukraine entire Ukraine as a part of this.

205
00:27:01,450 --> 00:27:04,750
His main idea, main project is new.

206
00:27:05,020 --> 00:27:10,910
Why he's fighting so much for Eurasian Union, because that's his main element in his mind, too,

207
00:27:11,140 --> 00:27:20,140
to be one of the most influential historical leaders of this country after the treatment of the great Joseph Stalin.

208
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,940
And he would be number four. This is not a child in 2000 quotes.

209
00:27:24,940 --> 00:27:28,300
Sounds like a joke, but this is not a joke. This is this is his dream.

210
00:27:28,310 --> 00:27:31,770
This is his politics. And this is his determination.

211
00:27:32,050 --> 00:27:39,280
And this is what we have to understand and not to be naive and not believe in something because there's no losers.

212
00:27:40,390 --> 00:27:48,010
And of course, he was very close to have entire Ukraine in this concept for Europe as a rule because.

213
00:27:50,740 --> 00:27:56,950
You decided not to sign the Association Agreement and the plan prepared by Putin.

214
00:27:56,950 --> 00:28:02,649
Yanukovich was followed not to sign an association agreement to support Ukrainian

215
00:28:02,650 --> 00:28:08,260
economy by 15 billion U.S. dollars to support Yanukovich in the election 2015,

216
00:28:08,650 --> 00:28:15,940
and to have Yanukovich in the hands of Russia next year, 4050, the next year, and the next step would be exact.

217
00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:18,250
Now. March, April 2014.

218
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:27,040
To change the status of Ukraine in Customs Union from the Status of Observers into status of of a full member of the Customs Union and then

219
00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:39,270
Ukraine as a member of customs union will be the the one of the founders of Eurasian Union 2050 or 2016 together with Russia and Kazakhstan.

220
00:28:39,670 --> 00:28:48,399
And this was and was very close to who to fulfil this that the problem what is the problem of all the leaders of post-Soviet region is that

221
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they they don't understand what means in society and they don't understand what means the real need of the people and how the people.

222
00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:03,400
Sometimes we can go to demonstrate something that is absolutely out of the imagination of these leaders, because for them,

223
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if some who's going to protest or to demonstrate something should be paid by CIA or other intelligence from the world.

224
00:29:11,050 --> 00:29:19,320
It cannot be spontaneous movement, which is a reaction and some disappointment and humiliation, frustration, etc., etc.

225
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:24,450
Demonstration, who I doubt was the result of this U-turn of Yanukovich,

226
00:29:24,700 --> 00:29:33,700
which was absolutely not explained to the people because communication between the government and the people in the society was something ground zero.

227
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,940
And of course the frustration because of the lack of this association agreement

228
00:29:40,330 --> 00:29:46,450
started to change suddenly and in the frustration of the quality of leadership,

229
00:29:46,450 --> 00:29:53,110
of corruption, of the frustration that social situation, the economy, etc., etc.

230
00:29:53,350 --> 00:30:00,340
This is mentioned in process of some student demonstration protest which we know very well for a Poland.

231
00:30:00,350 --> 00:30:10,220
So we is it in 1991 it's exactly the same procedure and the same process and the same change of of arguments and expectations, etc., etc.

232
00:30:10,870 --> 00:30:14,220
And of course. This project collapsed.

233
00:30:14,950 --> 00:30:20,080
Is this idea because Yanukovich is, you know, one of the stars finally escape?

234
00:30:20,530 --> 00:30:26,260
And today we have a new situation for Russia, which Russia, in my opinion, was the manager of following way.

235
00:30:26,350 --> 00:30:30,640
First, Crimea is the first element of this, the newest nation of of Ukraine.

236
00:30:31,300 --> 00:30:34,540
And, of course, premier is today practically in Russian hands.

237
00:30:34,930 --> 00:30:38,680
And so maybe even my colleagues, they have some idea what we can do.

238
00:30:39,340 --> 00:30:48,729
And I'm quite pessimistic. I don't know what we can do without having Russian troops going to the bases of unstable and the

239
00:30:48,730 --> 00:30:58,330
referendum which will have a result 90% in favour of of of of of of of Russia and as it was,

240
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:08,110
very small group. And the next step of of of Putin is this the immunisation of eastern Ukraine, especially before election 25th of May,

241
00:31:08,890 --> 00:31:15,760
because for him is very important to say that he cannot become the new president of Ukraine because this election was not fair,

242
00:31:16,090 --> 00:31:22,630
not free, that we have an election, only 60, 70% of polling station.

243
00:31:22,870 --> 00:31:28,960
And this destabilisation would be the permanent element of Ukraine of Russian policy towards Europe.

244
00:31:29,380 --> 00:31:32,820
The next step after 24 years away would be to continue this.

245
00:31:34,090 --> 00:31:42,400
And this is very easy because with subsidies the problem, the new government will have not so much time to solve these problems.

246
00:31:42,430 --> 00:31:46,149
Not enough money to do it. And we will have the government of Yeltsin.

247
00:31:46,150 --> 00:31:53,950
You can be president when we have an enormous pressure from the side of Maidan, from the side of the people,

248
00:31:54,190 --> 00:32:01,660
to show some positive effects of what happened in this revolution, 2013, 2040.

249
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,680
And in my opinion, the idea of putting today is to wait.

250
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,840
We don't know when it will happen. The new government will collapse.

251
00:32:11,170 --> 00:32:16,600
And this Maidan number two, because Maidan number one was always the one that was my number two is Maidan.

252
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:25,209
Number two would be replaced by my number three, which will be very much against Maidan number two and will open some possibilities to create

253
00:32:25,210 --> 00:32:31,780
more pro-Russian government and to create some new possibilities to say also to Europeans,

254
00:32:31,780 --> 00:32:35,800
look, this country's fallen. This country is not predictable.

255
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,600
You have no chances to be serious partner to solve the problems of Ukraine.

256
00:32:40,780 --> 00:32:44,370
And we are another place that is my enemy.

257
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:50,740
This and knowing quite well this region knowing quite well my partner's from from our past is for Russia.

258
00:32:50,980 --> 00:32:57,490
I almost drew that this scenario will go on this way and we will not be the last point very strongly,

259
00:32:57,490 --> 00:33:01,180
because much of the discussions of European Union and Korea,

260
00:33:02,470 --> 00:33:08,590
European Union and the West, we are of course in extremely difficult situation because we are not a democratic structure.

261
00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:13,890
We cannot use the methods which are against our values, our tradition.

262
00:33:14,770 --> 00:33:18,670
And frankly speaking, we have not enough instruments,

263
00:33:19,460 --> 00:33:28,180
even even these democratic useful because to organise huge support the financial support for for for Ukraine it needs time,

264
00:33:28,180 --> 00:33:39,459
it needs a lot of discussions, etc. But my suggestion and I discussed with almost everybody in Europe what I could say.

265
00:33:39,460 --> 00:33:49,180
So, first of all is to understand the investigation is necessary to understand that this Ukrainian crisis is not for days,

266
00:33:49,180 --> 00:33:52,059
not for weeks, not for months. This is a question for four years.

267
00:33:52,060 --> 00:33:58,480
Then the next, if we want to react correctly, is necessary to understand what Russia wants to do.

268
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:09,219
And secondly, it is necessary to prepare us in which will be very common, very and prepared from from all the West,

269
00:34:09,220 --> 00:34:20,510
including USA and the government, because solidarity in this case Libya is more valuable as even some elements of this of this problem we have.

270
00:34:20,530 --> 00:34:27,880
Because if if Russia because this is the next president of Russia very from day sides with quite politics.

271
00:34:28,240 --> 00:34:33,970
They want to play various plays with different elements of strength of the west.

272
00:34:34,540 --> 00:34:43,850
I will saying many times for Russia doesn't exist one European police they have 28 plus one European policy.

273
00:34:44,500 --> 00:34:51,399
This plan to this and current bilateral contacts with European countries members

274
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:56,710
of EU with some of them privileged with some of them and some of them like that.

275
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:02,470
And this plus one is the less important policy. This is towards Brussels, towards European institutions also.

276
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:12,070
And of course we should understand that this is Russian contact contact concept in front and we should propose something with more common policies.

277
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:20,340
A lot of solidarity and actions and understanding the situation is serious and can be.

278
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,880
Thank you very much. The president and everyone who like to read.

279
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:47,780
Okay. Okay. So thank you very much for coming to be with us today.

280
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:57,860
Thank you very much. We appreciate it. And thank you very much for all that you're working with you and Mary Margaret, thank you very much here.

281
00:35:58,010 --> 00:36:04,549
You know how much I admire you and I read your books and how much I want to drive through one of your books.

282
00:36:04,550 --> 00:36:14,510
Very important, because you must make it very difficult to do say something meaningful, like after Alexander Graham.

283
00:36:14,510 --> 00:36:20,030
Yes, it was a school, but I would try to say something to try to make it mean.

284
00:36:20,870 --> 00:36:25,100
I think to begin with, a little history with Ukraine,

285
00:36:26,420 --> 00:36:32,719
because I think we understand that probably we will understand a little bit better is the relation

286
00:36:32,720 --> 00:36:37,910
between Ukraine and Russia and Russia in the European Union and the Ukraine and the European.

287
00:36:39,050 --> 00:36:42,730
The first time I was in Ukraine investigation, which one?

288
00:36:43,650 --> 00:36:49,610
It was two years after the sentence, the first time in 2002, three years ago.

289
00:36:50,930 --> 00:37:05,240
And I had constructed a very good, strong relationship with them and I was very, very attached to Ukraine and I'd be doing that.

290
00:37:06,710 --> 00:37:11,810
I think, in my view, two or three dates in my life with Ukraine, which I think are important to understand.

291
00:37:13,370 --> 00:37:21,320
The first thing is that when they signed the 1994 agreement for the recording session with Ukraine,

292
00:37:22,070 --> 00:37:32,940
remember that he was signed by your country like Russia, then by the United States, and there it was absolutely recognised.

293
00:37:33,050 --> 00:37:39,080
They were intended to train as an independent country and to defend.

294
00:37:39,890 --> 00:37:45,350
But a few years after that I happened to be in Sebastopol.

295
00:37:46,190 --> 00:37:50,450
Sebastopol was the closest nobody for them to into to Moscow.

296
00:37:50,450 --> 00:37:53,690
Mm. Then I left, I was 53, you old.

297
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:58,100
And I put into Sebastopol. In Sebastopol.

298
00:37:58,100 --> 00:38:04,790
The impression, by God, this for me, unforgettable. He was there to have two things, truly.

299
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:17,449
One, to notice that they been separated a few years before that and we were very lucky we're not to spectacular of maybe to go into control in the

300
00:38:17,450 --> 00:38:31,399
world really basically dismantled basically somewhere in 1750 but to to really something that you have to give your life in the same place

301
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:41,890
we were to live one them great things yeah we would rough it the people that were in the Russian and Ukraine they were but in fact because

302
00:38:41,970 --> 00:38:50,209
we belong to the same so and we go back to do it the other day the other day when the the new version of the Republic of the American is,

303
00:38:50,210 --> 00:38:54,890
of course, they abandoned appointed the new chief of military staff.

304
00:38:55,280 --> 00:39:02,870
It was maybe if you send me to the sabbatical and then when he found cancel is impossible

305
00:39:03,220 --> 00:39:08,450
to leave will say goodbye to you and I will be part of the people of Sebastopol.

306
00:39:08,690 --> 00:39:16,339
What different options were there? So these people since Mr. Ferry to understand what is in this world what is the

307
00:39:16,340 --> 00:39:20,300
relationship is still look the generation particularly areas of military people

308
00:39:21,470 --> 00:39:26,410
who simply so close together which is difficult to see what is a separate and

309
00:39:26,420 --> 00:39:31,580
separate and part of a simple thing that they want to tell you is September 11th,

310
00:39:32,780 --> 00:39:35,930
3:00 in the afternoon, I was 18.

311
00:39:36,530 --> 00:39:45,270
Well, it wasn't great. I think it was one day in the mountains in the old house of Rosneft, having lunch with that person.

312
00:39:46,740 --> 00:39:55,819
And when the telephone rang saying that September 11th, the big catastrophe taking place, he didn't know anything.

313
00:39:55,820 --> 00:39:57,380
You came to me.

314
00:39:57,710 --> 00:40:06,650
And from there on you can imagine that we had a fantastic experience of having lived together, so I constructed a pretty good relationship with them.

315
00:40:07,130 --> 00:40:11,810
Now I want to tell you something which is very important to understand when they will say,

316
00:40:11,810 --> 00:40:15,980
because we don't make it, we tend to expand means at the least.

317
00:40:16,970 --> 00:40:27,650
Remember that day in 1989 when the integration of Germany, the most difficult part, one of the most difficult part was to get this reunified.

318
00:40:27,650 --> 00:40:42,260
Germany, it made. Because if all devastated it was moving to the east and then we get to Nazis and they go to some members of the forest and blacks,

319
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,210
and we were to move a game in that least.

320
00:40:47,300 --> 00:40:57,050
And I thought that time and everybody understood, Americans understood and understood that that could not be done without having a conversation.

321
00:40:57,060 --> 00:41:00,050
We would say no to the compensation question.

322
00:41:01,770 --> 00:41:10,850
And that was a very easy thing to do, really convince the Russians that we are going and we were going to continue moving the border towards east,

323
00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:15,650
that we started negotiating with Primakov at the time, foreign minister,

324
00:41:15,650 --> 00:41:19,670
then prime minister and very interesting personalities, very focussed on that.

325
00:41:20,270 --> 00:41:26,570
And I would tell you what happened that day was 27th of January 1997,

326
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:34,860
and I was in the dacha in Moscow we speak and the delegation of the of the nation very,

327
00:41:34,860 --> 00:41:49,550
very and after two or three vodkas and when you have to remember his father's life and and father and I presented my kit,

328
00:41:50,210 --> 00:41:55,550
my case and well, we are going to this and we want to do it in cooperation.

329
00:41:56,990 --> 00:42:05,600
And I explain what was the deal, etc. And he took a walk and said, Come here, let's go for a walk.

330
00:42:05,900 --> 00:42:12,710
What's not? And we went for a walk alone without any policeman or anything.

331
00:42:13,190 --> 00:42:16,640
And the duct tape was down on the floor.

332
00:42:17,390 --> 00:42:24,620
And I thought I would first to do exactly the message, Come here, I'm going to accept this.

333
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:29,240
But I want to tell you what for me would be an asset.

334
00:42:31,270 --> 00:42:40,510
For me, it would be unacceptable that any threats from the far right will be taking sides.

335
00:42:41,290 --> 00:42:42,040
So I'm sorry.

336
00:42:43,070 --> 00:42:52,510
You to me, something I can read that will depend on how well we are able to relate that to NATO and the European Union and Russian Federation.

337
00:42:52,510 --> 00:43:01,970
And we look at what we can do that we train together and without complication, we will not sit down.

338
00:43:03,490 --> 00:43:13,300
Ukraine was at the heart of his heart and heart and heart because his life troubles that was born in Kiev.

339
00:43:13,630 --> 00:43:17,590
So my life passes and he is in my.

340
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:25,270
Exactly. And he was obsessed with me since the day that we had one moment.

341
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:31,460
It was very, very important because I did something very important for me.

342
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:40,510
We said the same moment at the same time. He took me to the lodge and took place in which we signed an agreement with Russia.

343
00:43:41,110 --> 00:43:48,490
We had an agreement, Ukraine with 35 Ukraine as an important player, and we wanted to give him that.

344
00:43:48,700 --> 00:43:54,900
To give him that because we promised a serious country, a big country for Geneva people.

345
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,100
So from the very beginning, we have been dealing with it.

346
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:07,020
He is in the grave with great respect and really this was not going to be the question,

347
00:44:07,030 --> 00:44:16,960
but we knew we wanted to live that and have done so often that to the extent has talked about it involved the Orange Revolution,

348
00:44:17,590 --> 00:44:20,560
the Vietnam Revolution. I would like to underline two things.

349
00:44:21,130 --> 00:44:30,760
One, that was really the 9th of December knowing all and people were there really very, very, very committed.

350
00:44:30,990 --> 00:44:37,480
We were truly making simple unity.

351
00:44:38,430 --> 00:44:45,459
Okay. Making example had been what we said not long ago, not only three months.

352
00:44:45,460 --> 00:44:53,470
We think all year he was really somebody with a tremendous time because of this very difficult time.

353
00:44:53,950 --> 00:45:00,240
And then you had a fantastic leader that it was really of the masses really was.

354
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,610
And we do that, but we solved the problem.

355
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:11,100
And let me underline, once we solved that problem in the roundtable roundtable, even with the European Union.

356
00:45:11,290 --> 00:45:21,790
Let me gentlemen, myself, the Russians were represented by ten women and the chairman of the do good and good

357
00:45:21,790 --> 00:45:26,800
man who has left me one who one election four days and what we wanted to change

358
00:45:27,340 --> 00:45:36,219
because the nation fear and the U.S. so then to the two presidents they want a full

359
00:45:36,220 --> 00:45:42,070
and voluntary change for Vietnam because the next year the Russians the Europeans

360
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:48,130
stop thinking about that because peace is something that we should've done this time

361
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:55,450
it roundtable of I think we have not been a we talk you and me sometimes we spend

362
00:45:55,450 --> 00:46:01,239
one day in Milan doing all those last weeks talking about how we could create the

363
00:46:01,240 --> 00:46:07,330
conditions to recuperate and the spirits and that we solved the crisis in 2000.

364
00:46:07,330 --> 00:46:15,410
And now from 2000 and 2007, from 2004 to 2004.

365
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:26,260
Ten, ten years in those ten years, in my opinion from the opinion Ukraine has wasted dramatically.

366
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:40,870
It's time with people and economic political because they feel able to construct a political party system they don't have in a single army,

367
00:46:41,350 --> 00:46:52,600
because we, despite the immediate fighting started, we couldn't make the okay and you need to make impossible to become capable.

368
00:46:53,320 --> 00:47:00,640
So we stand here for me has been the most frustrating being in relation with Ukraine, because I talk to them.

369
00:47:01,300 --> 00:47:03,280
You talk to them. Yes. To Moldavia.

370
00:47:03,370 --> 00:47:11,590
They can see after we have we have made in the over the last year how we will be and is full is that this is 60 but

371
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:18,790
that they said and they want to you because this is to what I said in the constitution which are taking place now.

372
00:47:18,790 --> 00:47:23,490
The situation today fast as of the time they have said is very, very difficult.

373
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:30,100
But I think two mistake you make the first mistake they lost.

374
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:39,020
Not to go for the risk of the three ministers not to have died before they went.

375
00:47:40,700 --> 00:47:46,970
That's been taken a week before. The situation is still ready to make it.

376
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,800
The agreement the president made.

377
00:47:50,390 --> 00:47:59,200
You see, the Russians were there and we made some friends with Russian President Putin, who was the president of the commission,

378
00:47:59,210 --> 00:48:04,760
also the Foreign Office of the Foreign Relations that's known as the ombudsman of Russia.

379
00:48:05,210 --> 00:48:11,840
He said somebody constructive and he was effective in the conversation, but it was impossible to implement.

380
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,649
The agreement was very,

381
00:48:15,650 --> 00:48:29,420
very good when and they will do it in the right political at the end of the year 2000 and this year in which we have not ended Putin,

382
00:48:29,420 --> 00:48:35,060
as we have said to the court, that is.

383
00:48:35,510 --> 00:48:38,330
But we cannot say that for sure.

384
00:48:38,870 --> 00:48:50,840
But it seems to me that Yanukovich last because Putin told me, is this operation, do you think ever can we do that in the state?

385
00:48:51,740 --> 00:48:57,469
The situation will continue to be much worse because it was in a way very favourable

386
00:48:57,470 --> 00:49:05,060
to the leader because the total of the unity in elections before the end of the year.

387
00:49:06,620 --> 00:49:18,950
So that's one mistake. And the second mistake, he was in the same time not having to take the agreement of 1994,

388
00:49:20,060 --> 00:49:32,750
agreement where by agreement you remember a country which is a big, big chocolate of the missiles of Russia.

389
00:49:33,230 --> 00:49:40,240
And the agreement would be taken by Russia with the signature of the United States of Russia in your country.

390
00:49:40,250 --> 00:49:46,260
As I said before, the signatories had the obligation to do article.

391
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,200
I don't remember that one.

392
00:49:48,200 --> 00:50:00,080
I completely agree on guaranteeing the integrity of Ukraine, the security of Ukraine written down there in south in it for more than we want to spend.

393
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:09,200
How much how many hours we spent on that one night in the in that will remember another name that I don't know three

394
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:17,360
or four maybe we spend together to try to mobilise that that degree to Putin partners agreement and find a solution.

395
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:27,380
Right let's continue in Russia, the United States and European and think that if we could have done that,

396
00:50:28,130 --> 00:50:32,440
we could have presented all for us open economic help.

397
00:50:33,500 --> 00:50:37,970
The situation is in Ukraine is in default.

398
00:50:39,650 --> 00:50:42,770
The European Union does have money to give them up.

399
00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:46,790
The Americans don't have the money at this point of law.

400
00:50:46,790 --> 00:50:59,569
One reason that Russia has the money, and I am concerned about that they continue that they are met with absolutely impossible to accept.

401
00:50:59,570 --> 00:51:04,570
My country got very difficult to do that because of Argentina.

402
00:51:04,820 --> 00:51:13,400
And so they are maybe maybe coming back now and that time that we need to call for an agreement of that nature.

403
00:51:13,820 --> 00:51:25,040
We will we will allow to have a brain getting out of the crisis into political control or attitude of time lending.

404
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:31,160
The loan was given by the states, Russia and the European Union controlling that, too.

405
00:51:31,580 --> 00:51:38,780
So that was the thing that we were not good enough or rotten enough or didn't have influence with both of us.

406
00:51:38,780 --> 00:51:49,100
We don't have any power, but it was not done. And I think there's still a momentum of time instead of what was done is statements.

407
00:51:49,850 --> 00:51:57,770
And this included Maiden Minister, which I don't see the role of the ministers from both who might not believe.

408
00:51:57,770 --> 00:52:03,790
So today in the face. I don't think the prime minister in a situation like this.

409
00:52:04,460 --> 00:52:13,370
Oh, no. I mean, I tell you the consequence from I think we have had a very complicated situation for President Bush.

410
00:52:14,150 --> 00:52:26,960
US and the Chinese have said one best, and Putin wants a customs union in the customs union with Ukraine because otherwise he would be a leader of it.

411
00:52:26,990 --> 00:52:30,020
That's the kind of thing wants to have a European you.

412
00:52:30,180 --> 00:52:37,830
What he needs, right. Importing people sophisticated to try to see into that.

413
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:43,530
Now he will get we've got a staff and you follow the news of the last days.

414
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:54,890
One which is really funny is that you can really see himself now in a very complicated situation ID to do stuff,

415
00:52:54,980 --> 00:53:01,940
software, something similar or something more dramatic or he's the only one who is.

416
00:53:02,020 --> 00:53:12,630
If he looks now in Ukraine, he's not in the customs union and [INAUDIBLE] be the leader of a customs union and he doesn't want to be.

417
00:53:12,910 --> 00:53:18,510
They've got to solve their problems. Then we get past the United States of Europe.

418
00:53:19,410 --> 00:53:31,170
I think that the crisis in Ukraine last, the crisis in the last negotiation from that last party standing fast,

419
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:45,580
maybe it is too much and maybe that pressure from the right, from the Tea Parties are going to put on hold on Obama may mean that he has a reaction.

420
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:54,930
We still don't know when, but I think the situation this the global situation now has changed very much,

421
00:53:54,930 --> 00:53:58,650
much more than we think for the situation in Ukraine.

422
00:53:59,130 --> 00:54:05,820
Now, for the Europeans, we want to look at Ukraine as a problem of the big powers.

423
00:54:07,270 --> 00:54:16,000
Both would prefer to solve this problem as a drawing between the European Union and one of the most important neighbours.

424
00:54:17,470 --> 00:54:28,660
If we enter today into any conflict, I think that would be very difficult because this is a zero sum game for some people.

425
00:54:29,500 --> 00:54:40,360
Now if we can substantive can't afford this and try to bring it to a situation of regional European Union peacefully in Russia,

426
00:54:40,510 --> 00:54:44,160
not in terms of American, not in terms of the big powers.

427
00:54:44,170 --> 00:54:50,680
But, you know, I think there is still some possibility to resolve this in a much better manner.

428
00:54:51,220 --> 00:54:54,670
And this is not it's not like that is not important.

429
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:58,130
It's not. We have to find the will to do that of now.

430
00:54:58,420 --> 00:55:06,940
And so I think this can because it's and it has to move from the details of the situation.

431
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:18,610
I think that today, my my my impression today from the meeting which is taking place right now between the Curley and Lavrov.

432
00:55:19,730 --> 00:55:26,900
There is a chance that something may come out of this conversation in the formation of something,

433
00:55:27,110 --> 00:55:36,800
possibly not an offshoot of a contact group, a contact group which may help move that forward.

434
00:55:37,220 --> 00:55:48,280
The first contact between Putin and the government of Kiev, which link him not talking to each other and contact for feedback,

435
00:55:48,290 --> 00:55:59,250
would be the the envelope for some contact between Putin, somebody and somebody from Kiev and things like that.

436
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:11,540
We are really very critical of some places for this particular problem, also for Syria, because they will not be easy and control Syria.

437
00:56:11,810 --> 00:56:16,720
We felt so insecure in May and then you put on it.

438
00:56:16,820 --> 00:56:23,440
The problem that we have dealt with on this May, you mentioned earlier, it's a big complication.

439
00:56:23,450 --> 00:56:34,940
All the elements of some of the maybe the only solution is you may move an intervention to the Eastern Ghouta is that we can you know,

440
00:56:35,540 --> 00:56:39,050
I insist we want something that we don't insist enough.

441
00:56:39,410 --> 00:56:45,560
What Putin wants is that, you know, the Free Syrian Army.

442
00:56:46,340 --> 00:56:54,230
That's the do you know very well the difference between a free trade agreement, that Europe is a free trade agreement, which is what we offer.

443
00:56:54,500 --> 00:56:57,130
We offer a free trade agreement plus.

444
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:05,359
But basically the association agreement and a free trade agreement based and the other side is a custom you know,

445
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:17,630
from good is much better but from trade is very very bad because you are in fact the union you have the tariff bank lending.

446
00:57:17,810 --> 00:57:22,300
You says the whole country is fixed by the union.

447
00:57:23,930 --> 00:57:31,040
That means it will be fixed. But to make it possible to Russian so great in a customs union is incompatible.

448
00:57:32,450 --> 00:57:37,130
It went with a free trade agreement with the European.

449
00:57:37,850 --> 00:57:46,260
So the question is this is more tricky than when we reset because I mean, the idea you don't have to choose, okay?

450
00:57:46,670 --> 00:57:49,680
You don't have to choose. But even the offer isn't custom.

451
00:57:49,700 --> 00:57:54,559
You union, you are choosing in a way that you will not have economic relations with the

452
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:59,060
third parties because you will not have the freedom to seek to have tariffs.

453
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:05,300
And that is a delicate point, and nobody looks into that.

454
00:58:05,630 --> 00:58:09,890
But it's not a free trade agreement, the free trade agreement.

455
00:58:10,490 --> 00:58:17,900
So that complicates the issue very much. Also for the European Union, for us, we want to have good relations with Ukraine.

456
00:58:18,410 --> 00:58:27,170
We like to have at least a free rein in that it will be very difficult to achieve if they have a part in that.

457
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:39,020
Okay. Thank you very much. Professor.

458
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:43,940
Thank you. Thanks for inviting me to be on this panel. A Late Edition, I realise.

459
00:58:43,940 --> 00:58:56,900
But I do think that today we've heard a lot about real insights into crisis situations and particularly the present when negotiations took place.

460
00:58:57,320 --> 00:59:00,740
As an academic, I haven't been in those situations.

461
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:08,180
So I listen to events, both possibly on what's happening today from the sidelines, from outside.

462
00:59:08,540 --> 00:59:15,980
But perhaps one can provide an overall context. So make us maybe also closing for some lessons might be already today.

463
00:59:17,390 --> 00:59:20,690
Maybe the middle of a crisis is not a lot of good moments to pause.

464
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,620
But I think a few elements are already clear.

465
00:59:24,710 --> 00:59:27,630
I want to talk a little bit about Ukraine,

466
00:59:27,630 --> 00:59:34,520
the lessons that she's saying about Ukraine's transition and then following up on what we heard already and with a few comments on Crimea,

467
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,760
and I'm sure that you're eager to to launch into the discussion.

468
00:59:38,870 --> 00:59:47,540
I think one of the key things that we see today is how risky, ambivalent policies have been.

469
00:59:47,870 --> 00:59:53,510
And I'm not suggesting to you today that the U.S. to blame for what we're currently seeing in Ukraine and Crimea.

470
00:59:53,990 --> 01:00:00,860
But I think while constructive ambiguity might be needed in a few crisis situations,

471
01:00:01,820 --> 01:00:11,180
vagueness about where some process is going know for many years that the EU Ukraine relationship has been like.

472
01:00:11,180 --> 01:00:17,390
That also entails risks. Political events can capitalise on that.

473
01:00:17,750 --> 01:00:22,820
So I think without it obviously being part of the design of the vagueness that

474
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:29,600
has surrounded both the EU's institutional set up of its commitment to Ukraine,

475
01:00:29,630 --> 01:00:40,670
the reasons for all those things y y that racism fair and also on the other hand, a lack of unified political will in Ukraine.

476
01:00:40,970 --> 01:00:46,250
So to pursue closer relations with the EU on the EU's terms,

477
01:00:46,250 --> 01:00:51,530
in terms of how it can structure relationships with a neighbouring country like your client.

478
01:00:52,400 --> 01:01:00,910
So what I want to put out there is that I think Western institutions, Western states, but also the EU is part of what we're seeing now.

479
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:06,530
So it raises the process, raises expectations which may not actually be managed.

480
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:11,330
It raises a whole range of different motivations and aspirations.

481
01:01:11,970 --> 01:01:17,180
Firstly, like you said, the protest in the Maidan was about something like European aspirations.

482
01:01:17,190 --> 01:01:23,670
That doesn't necessarily mean EU membership. For me and Ukrainian, that meant a whole range of expectations.

483
01:01:24,460 --> 01:01:27,310
One, it's easy to see why that be the case. Again,

484
01:01:27,770 --> 01:01:37,099
I think how the EU has also structured the relationship and for Ukraine has tried to say for the collective or not to collective on a particular line,

485
01:01:37,100 --> 01:01:47,290
this is just part of the story. So I think that should make us pause and also reflect on the consequences of the Western policies.

486
01:01:48,830 --> 01:01:50,030
On Ukraine briefly.

487
01:01:50,870 --> 01:01:58,570
I think that I pick up on something that Mr. Carney has already said, given Ukraine's history, given the regional diversity of this country,

488
01:01:58,700 --> 01:02:03,799
and the fact that this is a country that is for the first time in its foreign borders,

489
01:02:03,800 --> 01:02:09,470
putting together the Ukrainian state since 91, Ukraine has come quite a long way.

490
01:02:09,590 --> 01:02:16,490
And I think at the moment, we are mainly perceiving, obviously, a crisis of weaknesses.

491
01:02:17,270 --> 01:02:22,909
I we should see, for example, I see in other regions in the south and East as an imminent danger for that.

492
01:02:22,910 --> 01:02:29,240
For the whole country to look to the soul for. For Russia actively seeking to incorporate other parts of Ukraine.

493
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:37,310
So I think the Ukrainian statement has evolved as it has become stronger than we might think at the moment.

494
01:02:37,910 --> 01:02:44,989
That doesn't mean that some situations can't be destabilised and it will take a while to even fall for the rest of it,

495
01:02:44,990 --> 01:02:49,010
playing out for the south and east to find a new political balance.

496
01:02:49,370 --> 01:02:53,720
But ultimately, I think we should not lose sight of how far Ukraine has come.

497
01:02:54,170 --> 01:03:01,670
And part of that success story, I would say, is also that a previous conflict in Crimea was avoided.

498
01:03:02,780 --> 01:03:06,080
And in the 1990s we might have almost forgotten about this now.

499
01:03:06,410 --> 01:03:14,239
But there were there was a real potential for conflict in Crimea along to further along different dimensions and into a regional conflict,

500
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:20,870
a centre periphery conflict with Kiev, Russian-Ukrainian relations actually at the time and so on.

501
01:03:21,170 --> 01:03:26,690
And that was diffused by a combination of a very drawn out constitution making process,

502
01:03:26,690 --> 01:03:34,940
both at the national and regional level in Ukraine that enshrines equitably, politically entirely weak autonomy status for Crimea.

503
01:03:35,210 --> 01:03:41,660
But that process of engaging all the key actors at the time is perhaps something that we should look at again.

504
01:03:41,660 --> 01:03:49,640
And that whole process, I've view and a half have argued in mind we set up to conflict potential out of the situation.

505
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:55,910
So that might be much more important than the final institutional fix and the final institutional outcome.

506
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:01,210
A few thoughts on what we see at Raymond's arms.

507
01:04:01,550 --> 01:04:07,250
Adding perhaps to the figure is that Mr. Cross ask again for support for Ukraine independence.

508
01:04:07,490 --> 01:04:14,660
Just to also remind ourselves that in 91, 54% finance also voted in favour of Ukrainian independence.

509
01:04:14,930 --> 01:04:22,320
And that was without without the commentators being a political force in Crimea.

510
01:04:22,510 --> 01:04:26,180
The would have supported it, but they have thought up range of life in great numbers.

511
01:04:26,900 --> 01:04:32,870
So few things can move over time, but I think that's a figure that's probably important to to remember.

512
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:44,689
Other things today were a lot less clear about. And if this referendum on Sunday could be a free and fair referendum and again academic speaking

513
01:04:44,690 --> 01:04:50,690
that interesting to actually see what the preferences of finance are to anyone wanting to see that.

514
01:04:50,690 --> 01:04:53,839
And the results can be easily manipulated by volume.

515
01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:57,080
And if you notice and you suggest already figures for the result,

516
01:04:58,390 --> 01:05:06,440
but it's not only a matter of how high the support will be and what kind of figure looks looks like may be credible.

517
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:12,200
But if we look at we had a lot of other these days about the census figures of 2001.

518
01:05:12,530 --> 01:05:17,690
Oh, that's 58% for Russian ethnic Russians. And for me, about 24% of Ukrainians.

519
01:05:17,990 --> 01:05:25,310
And 12th, about 12% of them you talk this various divisions, with the exception of the commentators,

520
01:05:26,210 --> 01:05:34,400
don't really tell us all that much about what communists think about why Crimea's place is, first of all, self majority altogether.

521
01:05:34,660 --> 01:05:42,830
And also most of the Ukrainians are Russian speakers. They have not been politically mobilised in a particular way since the 1990s.

522
01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:52,669
Yes, there is a general cultural political sentiment, but that is not until very recent events very radically shifted.

523
01:05:52,670 --> 01:06:00,710
This translated into a coherent pro-Russia movement in Crimea that died very quickly in 1984,

524
01:06:00,950 --> 01:06:06,800
when in fact that movement also failed to address other concerns from the inside, in particular on the economy.

525
01:06:08,180 --> 01:06:14,700
So that, I think, is one one factor to keep in mind. There are by now obviously generational differences.

526
01:06:14,700 --> 01:06:21,680
So the younger generation in other parts of Ukraine has still not with the notion of being part of the Ukrainian side.

527
01:06:22,100 --> 01:06:27,290
You can be aware of many examples around the world becoming part of the state for us in a specific region,

528
01:06:27,290 --> 01:06:34,220
a specific a specific history perhaps needs to be treated differently in terms of the institutional up,

529
01:06:34,430 --> 01:06:42,709
but that doesn't mean that you go against the state. And I also think that many Ukrainians, Russians are different age groups.

530
01:06:42,710 --> 01:06:49,640
But again, past and present in particular, the younger generation knows how to distinguish between the messy but more or

531
01:06:49,640 --> 01:06:55,130
less democratic transition process in Ukraine that saw some extreme moments,

532
01:06:55,370 --> 01:06:58,489
but always most to correct that it's been messy.

533
01:06:58,490 --> 01:07:01,700
It's not pursued reforms as quickly and efficiently,

534
01:07:02,330 --> 01:07:06,500
but at the same time it has avoided some of the extremes on the transition process that Russia saw.

535
01:07:06,860 --> 01:07:12,620
And I think people also make a choice do we want to make the choice to have the chance to speak out what they want

536
01:07:12,620 --> 01:07:19,580
to join Putin's Russia today as a political system versus something that is still obviously be built in Ukraine?

537
01:07:19,910 --> 01:07:26,120
Unfortunately, we won't find out now. We are not sure whether you will ever find out what the what the real preferences are.

538
01:07:26,990 --> 01:07:35,540
But just to remind you that the person we currently see as a premier prime minister, his party was elected with 4% in the last regional elections.

539
01:07:36,230 --> 01:07:42,140
The terms speak of somebody in Crimea, some of these actually for the parliament officially opposing the constitution.

540
01:07:42,500 --> 01:07:50,090
He hasn't announced it for a while. I've seen nothing very recently under the umbrella of the party of Regional Reform.

541
01:07:50,090 --> 01:07:55,520
Just party concerns the reach in the heart pretty much of the rest.

542
01:07:56,660 --> 01:08:00,680
So I think at this point I want to point out we are beginning to hear a bit more about them,

543
01:08:00,690 --> 01:08:03,800
often struck by the media coverage of this in this country,

544
01:08:04,100 --> 01:08:09,120
how little attention has been on the economy and talk its way forward in the last week or so.

545
01:08:09,140 --> 01:08:14,840
But more about them, I think from one day all of a they will become the absolutely important and decisive factor in the region.

546
01:08:15,950 --> 01:08:25,980
12% of a small place is already quite something. They are united by the by memory of the deportation and of starting because a lot.

547
01:08:26,300 --> 01:08:30,870
Yes, exactly. They've also become more than 20% by now from 2000 to 13%.

548
01:08:30,870 --> 01:08:36,949
Also the younger generation, again, a higher proportion than also that they and they have acted and in particular when

549
01:08:36,950 --> 01:08:41,450
put under pressure as a much more unifying force and they are politically organised,

550
01:08:41,450 --> 01:08:44,450
they have the very well-organised political structures.

551
01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:54,230
So I think the key issue now will be there are attempts going on to to buy them off, to offer them economic support and political representation.

552
01:08:54,590 --> 01:09:04,690
But by definition, if you talk to us. Given that history will be sceptical of the long term nature of such promises and that will be put to a test.

553
01:09:04,840 --> 01:09:12,100
Here is how how united a group based on all that can come from are also different social, economic and political interests among them.

554
01:09:12,370 --> 01:09:17,440
And the control of the leadership may also not be in control of what certain groups do.

555
01:09:17,650 --> 01:09:24,970
There are more than twice clues to why the government has so far not been the most important strand of the fighting to talk up a movement as such.

556
01:09:25,180 --> 01:09:30,100
But that could very quickly change. 1.1 maybe I disagree slightly with you.

557
01:09:31,950 --> 01:09:37,290
I cannot believe that Russia has an interest in seriously destabilising the situation in Crimea itself.

558
01:09:37,300 --> 01:09:45,970
So I get a sense that there will be some break and see how the Crimean Tatars react because it would not only look bad if not this region,

559
01:09:46,750 --> 01:09:52,819
if violence kicks off in protest by some of the social violence or some sort of insurgency in Crimea,

560
01:09:52,820 --> 01:10:01,870
I think if they don't want us to to offer them something, to keep them quiet or even kickstarting a new migration route, among many others.

561
01:10:02,140 --> 01:10:04,090
So I think that is one of the factors.

562
01:10:04,690 --> 01:10:13,960
You can watch them, unfortunately, still watching as well, which leaves together with you just the first the meeting today with Senator Kerry.

563
01:10:14,590 --> 01:10:19,360
One thing that has come already on that is a certain timeline.

564
01:10:19,450 --> 01:10:22,749
But also, I think said, if I remember correctly,

565
01:10:22,750 --> 01:10:34,030
that Poland and Russia will not and will not incorporates Crimea is writing to the Russian Federation next week very quickly.

566
01:10:34,030 --> 01:10:44,920
It will be a gradual process. So again, I can be read as a as a window for a certain positive political process and maybe align with this the best.

567
01:10:45,730 --> 01:10:52,660
Any Western actor I can really hope for is that it becomes possible to move it also a political cost and

568
01:10:52,660 --> 01:10:57,640
probably that and that might be the lesson from the minorities in Crimea where the end result is open.

569
01:10:57,850 --> 01:11:04,570
So maybe the results were Crimea leaves Ukraine, but hopefully on a different on a different footing.

570
01:11:04,900 --> 01:11:08,110
And maybe there are other examples of our efforts.

571
01:11:08,800 --> 01:11:14,080
Think of a process that has different stages built into it and then choices at various points.

572
01:11:14,080 --> 01:11:18,549
And no, no, no site knows exactly what the choice will be,

573
01:11:18,550 --> 01:11:25,720
but they commit to this in principle and ultimately I think a lot of surveillance and explains part of why is the best

574
01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:35,110
escalation so quickly that Russia is reacting to the regional balance in Ukraine having been lost through the demonstrations.

575
01:11:35,710 --> 01:11:43,810
If we think of the EU proposed agreement on migration to later this summer to place, I think several times you used part of the years,

576
01:11:44,050 --> 01:11:49,630
but it's not that long and it was so quickly overtaken because we have talked about a national unity government,

577
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:57,850
but that would have included representatives of the southern eastern regions or the party of regional or whoever I would have spoken for for that.

578
01:11:57,940 --> 01:12:05,470
That's clearly not what we've seen. So for both Russia as well as politically interesting in the east and south of Ukraine,

579
01:12:06,190 --> 01:12:10,299
looks as if the pendulum has swung far too much to one side and part of Ukraine.

580
01:12:10,300 --> 01:12:12,600
That's part of the problem of the your frustration,

581
01:12:13,360 --> 01:12:19,500
but also part of what has held Ukraine together across all these two to sort of those two sides of this.

582
01:12:19,510 --> 01:12:26,589
It's actually two simplifying both. But there are different regional forces that need to be represented in the same thing in Kiev.

583
01:12:26,590 --> 01:12:33,910
So the other quick thing I think Ukraine needs to do is not only move towards present things, but also parliamentary elections,

584
01:12:34,330 --> 01:12:41,140
probably especially from regional elections and forming a government because at the moment, also from a youth point of view to push ahead,

585
01:12:42,160 --> 01:12:47,950
which is, I think what has been agreed so far that part of the association agreement I need to try to bring that to for

586
01:12:47,950 --> 01:12:56,020
later and do that with an interim government seems not like a recipe but going from the suppression the that.

587
01:13:05,380 --> 01:13:12,850
They really like one word. I sent it up to a referendum, put you in this terrible situation, etc.

588
01:13:13,540 --> 01:13:20,140
And he studied the situation for years, hoped that for him will be very important to say, look, after referendum.

589
01:13:20,230 --> 01:13:24,790
Everything was okay. And even I can imagine if you give some money for some resistance,

590
01:13:24,790 --> 01:13:32,500
that someone would be necessary for infrastructure because all the supplies of water when you think are coming for you.

591
01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:44,350
So that's the end. But the real point for me to do with this, the decision of of the Ukrainian parliament to be a part of Russian Federation.

592
01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:51,460
And I expect that he will not decide that he's ready to accept, because it would be really the beginning of the Cold War,

593
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:55,360
because then, given the space for some diplomatic and political manoeuvres,

594
01:13:55,400 --> 01:14:07,719
is better than that agreement that you have been developing time we thought here in a way that was applied in the really

595
01:14:07,720 --> 01:14:19,240
in the future to the meetings that the always the heads were out of recognising everybody but talking in the body,

596
01:14:19,250 --> 01:14:31,390
something that can be repeated to prevent to do something dramatic were the after in which really is no exit possible.

597
01:14:32,110 --> 01:14:38,160
And I think that would be a way that we play our cards well.

598
01:14:38,170 --> 01:14:56,340
There may be a way out. But again, if what Putin does want is to have with customs union, with the Ukrainians that is active in red,

599
01:14:56,350 --> 01:15:00,310
gone, being rejected from time to see how we can dismantle them.

600
01:15:01,450 --> 01:15:07,359
Presumably if if Putin has his eye on the long game, as you were suggesting,

601
01:15:07,360 --> 01:15:15,220
president and the option available to him is not to actually do anything dramatic after the referendum,

602
01:15:15,700 --> 01:15:22,600
but to treat Crimea like Charles in Eastern Europe, like South Ossetia.

603
01:15:23,230 --> 01:15:28,360
And you know, he'd like to ask the first question.

604
01:15:29,140 --> 01:15:32,950
Yeah, perhaps you can just say who you are. Andrew Thank you.

605
01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:40,710
Complete microphone. Come. It was one of her roles.

606
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:47,750
So. I would actually like to ask you a question, Chancellor, if I may, but the other members of the panel might like to post a comment.

607
01:15:47,750 --> 01:15:54,050
I thought your account of your conversation with the Foreign Minister was very interesting.

608
01:15:55,100 --> 01:16:00,230
When you had to tell us a European vacation did not mean membership of the EU,

609
01:16:00,680 --> 01:16:06,290
and he told you that his meaning the Ukraine was being discriminated against as compared to Turkey?

610
01:16:07,160 --> 01:16:15,860
Well, I can say that the Turkish path has not proved to be exactly the event graves that you

611
01:16:15,890 --> 01:16:21,600
just said it's being made a candidate for having against nations formally opened.

612
01:16:21,630 --> 01:16:25,250
It doesn't guarantee a happy outcome,

613
01:16:25,550 --> 01:16:32,600
but I wonder if you meant to imply that it would have been a possible and be

614
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:39,740
desirable for the EU to treat Ukraine at least on the same level as Turkey?

615
01:16:41,510 --> 01:16:45,140
At about the time that I had that meeting with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister,

616
01:16:45,710 --> 01:16:54,110
the Commissioner for Enlargement and very capable Center-Left politician called into the hall.

617
01:16:54,120 --> 01:17:03,200
You made a speech in Ukraine saying get real and whatever else we offer you, we're not offering you membership of the European Union.

618
01:17:04,400 --> 01:17:13,729
I think that was a terrible mistake. I happen to be of the view that we should have been serious about Turkish membership of the

619
01:17:13,730 --> 01:17:19,790
European Union and that that might have have an effect on what Turkey is like at the moment.

620
01:17:20,840 --> 01:17:29,810
I think that we should be have been more serious about our relationship with Ukraine and very much agreed with the point that

621
01:17:30,230 --> 01:17:38,570
Professor Cessé made extremely diplomatically about the lack of clarity about what exactly it was that we were offering.

622
01:17:38,930 --> 01:17:42,140
And member states I mean, states around our borders.

623
01:17:42,380 --> 01:17:48,080
I'm not one of those who thinks that being opaque is always the best diplomacy.

624
01:17:49,200 --> 01:17:52,610
So my answer to your question will not be opaque. Yes.

625
01:17:53,090 --> 01:17:58,430
My answer to your question is, is I would have preferred the answer to both questions to have been yes.

626
01:18:00,530 --> 01:18:06,370
And I mean, you know, we know very well what is the meaning of the situation.

627
01:18:06,380 --> 01:18:17,730
Really, the situation that we have to offer we've got to do is not going to offer French recognition and therefore, universally,

628
01:18:17,750 --> 01:18:25,260
completely, maybe you look what you make an agreement in education agreement is for somebody we can help the door open.

629
01:18:25,290 --> 01:18:37,640
Remember a people want to be seen and to know that the youth can these guys and send them to these men's lives and they signed it today.

630
01:18:41,960 --> 01:18:43,250
Yes and yes and no,

631
01:18:43,260 --> 01:18:55,640
because I remember we were all signed The Situation Room in 91 and until we started to be in full force after 13 years of the situation,

632
01:18:55,650 --> 01:19:01,130
even for a lot of people on the street, means it's some day they can be under a photo of you.

633
01:19:01,310 --> 01:19:06,410
This is such a lateral thinking politically. It doesn't mean that you are not going to ever.

634
01:19:07,010 --> 01:19:20,299
And that format is not the reason. I think this is why you find that you know that you are one this time they will figure it out on the other.

635
01:19:20,300 --> 01:19:25,130
On the other hand, the position with Turkey is that we can offer the membership of the European Union,

636
01:19:25,280 --> 01:19:28,630
but they suspect that none of us really mean to.

637
01:19:32,050 --> 01:19:38,850
This is important point because, of course, why the reaction of the people in Kiev were so strong,

638
01:19:38,870 --> 01:19:44,060
why the you know, the world was speaking about the 500,000 others?

639
01:19:44,070 --> 01:19:52,920
Because 700,000 I heard with about 1 million people in Maidan and demonstrating in favour of European Union, European values.

640
01:19:52,920 --> 01:20:00,460
And so because of this before really the Europe, despite the association agreements, the free trade agreement, no difference.

641
01:20:00,480 --> 01:20:04,110
And this is really important thing. This is a value.

642
01:20:04,110 --> 01:20:06,630
This is something what what is the dream of of Ukraine?

643
01:20:07,120 --> 01:20:14,850
But then many, many years before Maidan, one of the Ukrainians, when Ukraine is they want to all the renovation off of the apartment.

644
01:20:15,180 --> 01:20:21,510
They have two types of innovation a question of of of of the fuels slowly the cars away to remove

645
01:20:21,600 --> 01:20:33,660
any other goods good renovation or euro and lose something bad is usual very much in Soviet style.

646
01:20:34,650 --> 01:20:39,540
So we were in relation with the final to have a flat like in Europe.

647
01:20:40,590 --> 01:20:47,579
This is something which is animating all these people living in Ukraine and the politically, diplomatically speaking,

648
01:20:47,580 --> 01:20:58,950
of course maybe or in my opinion that we didn't say during this long time of association agreement negotiations that finally after association,

649
01:20:58,950 --> 01:21:04,649
which is the first step after many, many years, after a lot of effort, after huge homework,

650
01:21:04,650 --> 01:21:11,330
which is necessary to make sure that one day Ukraine can be the fulcrum of European political influence.

651
01:21:11,680 --> 01:21:20,070
Let me I do not know. This is very real, but I'm describing what I think from the needs of Madam Chancellor Merkel.

652
01:21:20,520 --> 01:21:33,090
Not long ago we said the Ukrainians this membership and please notice this is this is and if I didn't say that we were like

653
01:21:33,900 --> 01:21:45,410
we were formally said to not know at this stage because I think that it is a disagreement and I don't disagree with you,

654
01:21:45,810 --> 01:21:51,240
but it is worth noting that when we first when negotiating with Austria,

655
01:21:51,630 --> 01:22:02,280
Sweden and Finland for membership of the European and for that relationship with the European Union,

656
01:22:02,550 --> 01:22:07,530
we were offering them, as it were, limited membership.

657
01:22:07,530 --> 01:22:11,340
We were offering them the opportunity of playing on weekdays, but not at weekends.

658
01:22:12,540 --> 01:22:17,459
And they threw that out of the plan, incredibly, understandably.

659
01:22:17,460 --> 01:22:23,310
And I think it's I think it's very difficult to come from the area of take to agree with you about the legality.

660
01:22:23,310 --> 01:22:27,630
And what they signed up to would be that the area between is quite.

661
01:22:29,100 --> 01:22:35,270
Marshy? Yes. Thank you, Chancellor.

662
01:22:35,540 --> 01:22:39,190
My name is Rami. I'm from Georgia, but I'm student here in Oxford.

663
01:22:39,200 --> 01:22:50,270
I'm public policy. So my question would be, a, what do people have heard me said about the energy policy and Russia's role within the energy policy?

664
01:22:50,480 --> 01:22:58,160
I think this is one of the main reasons why Russia is so keen to talk about Ukraine and have the pro-Russian

665
01:22:58,370 --> 01:23:04,430
leader in Ukraine always look historically because Ukraine is transport of Russian gas to rest of Europe.

666
01:23:05,300 --> 01:23:08,330
Do you think and I think my question goes to Mr.

667
01:23:08,330 --> 01:23:16,819
Mr. Solar. Do you think one of the main reasons why you always fight with Russia is change policy and the vagueness?

668
01:23:16,820 --> 01:23:22,610
And the professor has been talking about the vagueness of the policy of of EU talk towards Russia.

669
01:23:22,710 --> 01:23:41,600
Development is all about energy and gas is not the only but is very important in Germany that part of this gas is from the South,

670
01:23:41,600 --> 01:23:47,770
from the Rhine, from the north and we are still in bad winter with the grain.

671
01:23:48,920 --> 01:23:56,120
People of the north of Germany need to continue and they got from the roof of this house.

672
01:23:56,870 --> 01:24:11,989
But the end game is 60% of the coal exports of Russia, 30% on the fortune of the United States of the European Union,

673
01:24:11,990 --> 01:24:16,550
but only all the country from different group itself based on bad business.

674
01:24:17,510 --> 01:24:30,310
Got it from one from Russia, from the EU according to what is now being talk and isn't going to talk since the use of customers.

675
01:24:30,320 --> 01:24:41,600
I can say this and make this question now about how we can get to it at a very short notice.

676
01:24:41,870 --> 01:24:55,279
Then I think that to be able to put the sanctions on the past of the Great Recession and that is something this

677
01:24:55,280 --> 01:25:04,840
is being calculated and been studied and there is some possibility of rapid sign if things go wrong very fast.

678
01:25:07,020 --> 01:25:21,530
It is only 30% of our concern for Russia is a 60% in the next gentleman here and then gentleman yes, I want to but Robert service Russian Russian.

679
01:25:21,530 --> 01:25:28,040
So I want to put a question about how clever Putin is.

680
01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:33,499
And I was very taken by what President Wisniewski was saying.

681
01:25:33,500 --> 01:25:38,690
But I wonder if in the longer term, Putin is really quite so clever,

682
01:25:40,040 --> 01:25:48,830
if he if if if any of this instability in Kiev spreads to Moscow, he could be in big trouble.

683
01:25:50,750 --> 01:25:59,810
If he gets this customs union with Ukraine, it will be a non modernised, non diversify economy.

684
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:05,840
And what sort of position is Russia ever going to have piece of the China and

685
01:26:05,840 --> 01:26:11,810
if the instability continues in this part of the world for very much longer,

686
01:26:12,110 --> 01:26:18,380
how long is it going to be before the North Caucasus, which was only conquered 150 years ago?

687
01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:26,080
I mean, let's think about how long the Irish think about my father was Irish.

688
01:26:28,080 --> 01:26:31,760
These visa. He's not so clever.

689
01:26:32,630 --> 01:26:42,000
I mean, I completely agree with you and I agree that the only possibility of Russia is in the East,

690
01:26:43,010 --> 01:26:46,730
its enemies and going to the borders and developing the borders.

691
01:26:46,930 --> 01:26:53,840
And the thing is that east, the Far East and demanded that we kind of we don't have the money to do it.

692
01:26:54,890 --> 01:26:59,180
So this is a risky battle for Russia in the medium term.

693
01:26:59,570 --> 01:27:04,330
And they may say, well, you are absolutely correct.

694
01:27:04,520 --> 01:27:06,110
I have been also much more clever.

695
01:27:06,110 --> 01:27:17,330
Politics would be modernisation of the Russia modernisation, not only the economy but all the nation to stay in the creation of civil society.

696
01:27:17,350 --> 01:27:22,670
A number and I think we could put in an amazing. Oh, I asked him about civil society democracy.

697
01:27:22,880 --> 01:27:26,840
His answer was no, this is impossible because we have no tradition of the school.

698
01:27:28,340 --> 01:27:32,500
And this is going to stop one day. There's no.

699
01:27:33,850 --> 01:27:35,860
He wasn't ready for it, I'm afraid.

700
01:27:36,310 --> 01:27:46,750
Putin is 14 years in power and his feeling today really is that I can do what I want and I don't care very much about this future for the next 20,

701
01:27:46,750 --> 01:27:55,480
30 years. I want to finish my legacy, which says that I will say one day to my countrymen, look, we are a superpower again.

702
01:27:55,710 --> 01:27:58,810
We go to fight. We are superpower. And this is his goal.

703
01:27:58,810 --> 01:28:04,750
And he organised for that many events since he the first elected world championship in soccer.

704
01:28:04,780 --> 01:28:07,780
The next event to be that we have all this.

705
01:28:08,230 --> 01:28:16,810
He didn't expect to this situation in Ukraine. He was sure that he's very close to the victories which we see on the part,

706
01:28:17,350 --> 01:28:21,610
of course, his and this is not only his, that is a nightmare of Lukashenko.

707
01:28:21,610 --> 01:28:31,420
This indictment of of it is, of course, made up because this type of reaction of the people, they don't like it, then they are very much afraid.

708
01:28:32,050 --> 01:28:41,670
But of course, as far as they will have for the idea that all this protest are organised by foreign forces,

709
01:28:42,110 --> 01:28:50,159
and then they will be mistaken again because one day it can happen and it means in Moscow or even maybe not in Iceland.

710
01:28:50,160 --> 01:29:00,160
Number one of the that's that's you saw possible 14 years in and the top of such country is the problem.

711
01:29:00,520 --> 01:29:06,219
Last point, you know, I was before my presidency, I was chairman of Constitutional Committee of National Assembly,

712
01:29:06,220 --> 01:29:09,930
which the party of Constitution of Poland and of the 97.

713
01:29:09,940 --> 01:29:14,950
And in this constitution, we have a rule about two terms of of president.

714
01:29:15,640 --> 01:29:19,060
If you step back to normal, the Polish president can be twice elected.

715
01:29:19,600 --> 01:29:28,030
And when I finished my second term, I had thought of a visit in Washington and my good friend George W asked me why we are so good guy.

716
01:29:28,060 --> 01:29:38,200
What idiot prepared such constitution in both of the world because this idiot is sitting.

717
01:29:41,080 --> 01:29:48,430
This is fantastic that the food that I can travel without problems, without sanctions, without the frozen comments.

718
01:29:50,680 --> 01:29:58,620
I think most of the states in the world, such as the West and this is but I never I never dreamt about you, a superpower.

719
01:29:58,630 --> 01:30:03,280
And that's something we should understand.

720
01:30:04,920 --> 01:30:12,680
Yeah. I'm not disappointed.

721
01:30:12,680 --> 01:30:16,570
You don't have a yard. Thank you.

722
01:30:19,130 --> 01:30:25,820
My question is about an element of this dreadful crisis, which I find really extraordinary hasn't been covered.

723
01:30:26,960 --> 01:30:32,360
And it's the evidence which finds itself really into the very unusual problem area.

724
01:30:32,840 --> 01:30:42,170
And that is because Putin has deployed his military in a way that in my four decades of military government service,

725
01:30:42,410 --> 01:30:53,900
I've never seen a free zone of deploying of force, only on foot, using the most fundamental element of your armed force no tanks,

726
01:30:54,470 --> 01:30:59,750
artillery, no drones, individual soldiers, but incredibly well,

727
01:30:59,840 --> 01:31:09,290
easily uniformly equipped in brand new police combat uniforms who were working through a very,

728
01:31:09,290 --> 01:31:14,990
very carefully controlled plan with excellent level of radiance, a personal level.

729
01:31:15,590 --> 01:31:17,300
I've never seen anything like it.

730
01:31:17,750 --> 01:31:29,540
Now, I believe Putin in this area was formed because he worked out that this is something which is impossible to counter in in in Crimea anyway.

731
01:31:30,290 --> 01:31:37,670
It is impossible for the Ukrainian military in Crimea to counter and it's impossible for anybody outside the country.

732
01:31:37,970 --> 01:31:46,640
And I believe he worked this out, although maybe it was deployed more or less spontaneously because we I'm afraid if we look at Georgia,

733
01:31:46,640 --> 01:31:55,460
he here a couple of years later that actually he planned the assaults a year and a half in advance.

734
01:31:55,850 --> 01:32:03,290
And I would like your opinion, first of all, on what I believe was an extremely effective military tactic,

735
01:32:03,500 --> 01:32:08,390
which has proved an absolute winner with impossible precedents in the future.

736
01:32:08,900 --> 01:32:13,970
And secondly, how could a stuntman do this, doing this again?

737
01:32:14,810 --> 01:32:21,070
Because it worked. Thank you. There are, as you know, 50,000 Russian waiters in London just waiting.

738
01:32:26,930 --> 01:32:32,120
I was waiting, was done with it. I don't have enough. You know, it was well done, unfortunately.

739
01:32:32,120 --> 01:32:41,629
And I think that is difficult. It would be difficult to repeat such a scenario in eastern Ukraine because the situation is different in Sevastopol.

740
01:32:41,630 --> 01:32:44,780
They have a base in eastern Ukraine now. Then of course,

741
01:32:45,680 --> 01:32:50,749
in Crimea it was possible to say because of the structure of the population that they are

742
01:32:50,750 --> 01:32:57,560
not the Russian sort of self defence units well equipped in some shops in Simferopol are.

743
01:33:00,740 --> 01:33:09,870
It is, of course, impossible to do anything. And don't let go of your book, especially because you know this in this place, as you've read,

744
01:33:09,870 --> 01:33:15,950
it has much more audience at the end today, especially after Crimea and the experience there.

745
01:33:16,070 --> 01:33:20,059
But the professional and the self defence concept was, I think,

746
01:33:20,060 --> 01:33:28,050
such political very of to say and especial also beauty of this self-defence that people

747
01:33:28,430 --> 01:33:35,690
made up that was a little bit polemic from his side for this content of self-defence.

748
01:33:36,530 --> 01:33:41,969
Yes. Yes, that's great. I think that's also a source of optimism as well,

749
01:33:41,970 --> 01:33:50,890
that this is not a scenario from how maybe the response plans of someone else and gender knocks on the door.

750
01:33:50,900 --> 01:33:56,120
We have not heard enough from a woman yet. Yes, there's one hit the woman with her left arm.

751
01:34:01,280 --> 01:34:11,930
So I put a short comment on a short question, I'm quite sure, because it's often criticised that the pendulum swung too far.

752
01:34:12,140 --> 01:34:17,660
I think it's still worth remembering that in that time, which was very remote,

753
01:34:17,660 --> 01:34:21,920
the head of the population said that we would refuse, actually participate in the new government.

754
01:34:22,760 --> 01:34:28,350
But at the same time there are two factions that form from the remnants of the all parties in the voting

755
01:34:28,500 --> 01:34:36,470
coalition and also that was the court appointed with the highest number of votes from parliament in Ukraine.

756
01:34:37,370 --> 01:34:42,859
This was a legitimate secret interim government. Actually, it's pretty, pretty high.

757
01:34:42,860 --> 01:34:49,160
But I believe there should be fresh parliamentary elections. My question is more about events yesterday in Vienna,

758
01:34:49,870 --> 01:34:59,780
the arrest and I really to the panel's opinion on how that fits in to what's unfolding here and how far it's connected or not.

759
01:35:00,230 --> 01:35:11,590
I think some of us hope the next gesture will be the closing down of Chelsea Football Club, but that is not the answer.

760
01:35:11,720 --> 01:35:17,270
Look, there's difficult with Gaza because we were surprised also by this information.

761
01:35:17,630 --> 01:35:28,280
And what I read that means that the free press is arrested long because of this last week in the theatre of events about something from the year 2008.

762
01:35:28,700 --> 01:35:32,020
And it is the iron issue is out of.

763
01:35:33,110 --> 01:35:39,379
Well I think that the oligarchs demand speaking to they are very difficult situation some of

764
01:35:39,380 --> 01:35:45,850
them which we are not close to or to do we have a problem do not expect to step into a room,

765
01:35:46,310 --> 01:35:52,799
for example. They are they can be relaxed because they are doing good on the job.

766
01:35:52,800 --> 01:35:57,710
They tend to they have, of course, the problems with the Russian market, etc. but this is different.

767
01:35:57,950 --> 01:36:03,290
But some people call it three plus one was one of the closest supporters of the young.

768
01:36:03,610 --> 01:36:10,129
I have met them. Yeah, they of course they left some problems with new government, but in my opinion,

769
01:36:10,130 --> 01:36:15,650
the main fear for oligarchs today is that the next stage of this revolution in Kiev,

770
01:36:15,650 --> 01:36:27,379
in Ukraine will be really not now against the politician because it's happened, but against rich people because of this social situation in Ukraine.

771
01:36:27,380 --> 01:36:31,010
I think there's a huge differences between rich and poor people.

772
01:36:31,170 --> 01:36:36,190
This is a source of wealth. A lot of persons that is going to be the real problem for let's face.

773
01:36:38,740 --> 01:36:43,060
According I think, to the morning's Financial Times, it must be true.

774
01:36:43,720 --> 01:36:50,950
The oligarch we mentioned is represented in this country by the grandson of a former prime minister,

775
01:36:50,950 --> 01:36:59,070
Lord Oxford, and he was also a former member of The Friends.

776
01:36:59,080 --> 01:37:07,059
And I think do we think if I were to come back to a crucial point made by Clinton presidency,

777
01:37:07,060 --> 01:37:13,719
which I would reformulate your comment as follows The crucial struggle that begins

778
01:37:13,720 --> 01:37:17,890
the day after the Crimea referendum on Sunday is not the struggle for Crimea.

779
01:37:18,280 --> 01:37:25,849
It is a struggle for Eastern Ukraine, where 90% of the Western media coverage would be about Crimea, Russia and the West sanctions new Cold War.

780
01:37:25,850 --> 01:37:31,180
And of course, that would be happening, as Ben Foster reminded us, that the crucial struggle is eastern Ukraine.

781
01:37:31,720 --> 01:37:36,220
Will there actually still be elections on the 25th of May?

782
01:37:36,220 --> 01:37:42,130
Will lose elections happening across the country. Will eastern Ukraine be part of a national political process?

783
01:37:42,370 --> 01:37:48,070
If yes, then not only is the independence of the rest of Ukraine secured,

784
01:37:48,640 --> 01:37:55,660
but Ukraine is back on a unambiguously constitutional democratic track with the at the moment.

785
01:37:55,960 --> 01:38:05,620
So my question to all is what should the politicians and actors on the ground do to make sure that that comes about,

786
01:38:05,620 --> 01:38:12,610
that the elections go ahead and Ukraine is part of them and what we do in the West to help them in that.

787
01:38:14,330 --> 01:38:21,940
Well, I think you have the 25th of May would be absolutely crucial date.

788
01:38:21,940 --> 01:38:33,790
And I hope that because one of the elements we got going, I think, about Lavrov, Senator Kerry talks about the information is that nothing is missing.

789
01:38:33,790 --> 01:38:34,520
What is it for?

790
01:38:35,560 --> 01:38:48,700
I mean, the Globe said during a press conference for Russia today they they stay with their own position and they do not agree with the Americans.

791
01:38:49,150 --> 01:38:56,040
So there'll be no conclusions going to come off as it was impossible to predict such result.

792
01:38:56,430 --> 01:39:04,360
So I think them is and I hope that the change of the day, the postponement of election is not an element of the deal,

793
01:39:04,510 --> 01:39:11,860
because it would be mistake, it might have been, you know, to wait longer for some constitutional stability,

794
01:39:12,610 --> 01:39:20,439
because having the president and having such a very special kind of government and the old style in the parliament,

795
01:39:20,440 --> 01:39:26,090
this is what I think this president elect the 25th will see who will be elected.

796
01:39:26,140 --> 01:39:34,450
This is the next point of this. My advice for leading politicians in Ukraine will be not to make this campaign very tough.

797
01:39:34,450 --> 01:39:38,359
It's not to fight each other so much as we know from the history.

798
01:39:38,360 --> 01:39:43,410
It's us, neither of which would be quite possible like that.

799
01:39:43,990 --> 01:39:48,219
And of course the is very important to have the election that we to have these elections

800
01:39:48,220 --> 01:39:52,840
well organised with a lot of international observers and in eastern part of of,

801
01:39:52,930 --> 01:40:03,040
of Ukraine. And of course the main problem is how to eliminate all these possible occupational acts of violence from, from various sides.

802
01:40:03,040 --> 01:40:12,009
Because all those people about themselves, the Russians have enough the groups in Ukraine which are interested in the violence.

803
01:40:12,010 --> 01:40:17,680
Also today, for example, I was informed before this meeting with two persons who were killed in Banyas

804
01:40:17,680 --> 01:40:23,890
through some devastation between the pro-Russians and pro-Ukrainian groups.

805
01:40:24,280 --> 01:40:30,400
So if you have more and more such such a situation, you do that.

806
01:40:30,940 --> 01:40:34,220
And then of course what today the Ukrainian government can do.

807
01:40:34,240 --> 01:40:44,290
I think the most important is to to start very active politics towards eastern part of Ukraine because, you know, two or three days ago,

808
01:40:44,650 --> 01:40:49,960
it was information that one of the former government of how to keep looking

809
01:40:50,470 --> 01:40:55,420
was the rest how who wants to be this pro-Russian candidate in the election?

810
01:40:55,930 --> 01:41:02,750
Now, I don't he's not the hero of my story, as I mentioned, because this would have to do with the the day.

811
01:41:03,100 --> 01:41:13,690
But I think for me, it's it's mistake if if in in eastern Ukraine this feeling that really the country's split and we have

812
01:41:13,690 --> 01:41:19,980
no chances for the dialogue will increase and this action of of of arrest this is something that,

813
01:41:19,990 --> 01:41:26,540
in my opinion, would be good to have warned the Russian government in this election would be much better not only to have people,

814
01:41:26,560 --> 01:41:34,150
candidates for Maidan in such nice, very comfortable situation who would be okay with just this is wrong.

815
01:41:34,510 --> 01:41:42,120
So I think this throughout Eastern. Yes. America is a very clever man, and I think you understand the situation very well.

816
01:41:42,420 --> 01:41:46,740
And he's absolutely able to make some gesture to towards instant.

817
01:41:46,980 --> 01:41:54,460
And that is necessary one day to go so necessary for these guys, one day to go physically to the be appropriate to ask him to organise.

818
01:41:54,990 --> 01:42:01,460
The only one who has enough courage is to do it was to stop the party for two days.

819
01:42:02,490 --> 01:42:05,700
Well, what is it for? For the European Union?

820
01:42:05,700 --> 01:42:11,589
Important in Rome? I couldn't I couldn't say again. But the first idea is not the end of the story.

821
01:42:11,590 --> 01:42:17,730
It is the presumption beginning because we have visited situation Crimea.

822
01:42:18,000 --> 01:42:25,889
And my feeling is necessary to expect this and the continuation of destabilisation of eastern part

823
01:42:25,890 --> 01:42:32,520
of of without military forces because the Russia doesn't need military forces in this place.

824
01:42:33,030 --> 01:42:36,149
They have enough organised group, they have enough support.

825
01:42:36,150 --> 01:42:43,770
There is not, in my opinion, to win, which is not. You shouldn't speak about millions, but, you know, thousands and those who speak.

826
01:42:44,130 --> 01:42:53,820
And this is enough to destabilise the situation. And of course, we should say openly that the Crimea is is is a problem.

827
01:42:54,060 --> 01:42:59,549
And Russia can you know, we have noticed very, very few new districts of de-escalation.

828
01:42:59,550 --> 01:43:03,030
So we expect not escalation, but some kind of de-escalation.

829
01:43:03,330 --> 01:43:05,490
It is necessary to use some some instruments.

830
01:43:05,880 --> 01:43:14,340
The main problem for you is how to describe how to define what kind of instruments we can use and for what kind of instrument we can have consensus.

831
01:43:15,090 --> 01:43:18,300
Because here we have. The problem.

832
01:43:18,320 --> 01:43:25,090
MacLeod From the moment I spoke about this kind of courage,

833
01:43:25,090 --> 01:43:31,390
I think here at this point to entertain thoughts about some ideas of decentralisation and centralisation,

834
01:43:31,840 --> 01:43:34,960
whatever you want to call it, and you don't want to use the word said, it was my way.

835
01:43:35,320 --> 01:43:39,490
I think that would be a very clever strategy at this point, because it could actually ultimately,

836
01:43:39,760 --> 01:43:46,100
although a lot of people inside and outside the party would not like to have said this will say a lot of things so that it could I wanted to,

837
01:43:46,120 --> 01:43:50,430
I think, strengthen Ukraine internally and also protect it from further Russian intervention.

838
01:43:51,490 --> 01:43:53,980
I would hope, following what you said, President,

839
01:43:54,340 --> 01:44:00,969
that there are already plans in place for deploying an EU monitoring mission and with some the very distinguished

840
01:44:00,970 --> 01:44:07,330
figure and really I think the president or Pat Cox or somebody who already knows all about Ukraine.

841
01:44:09,680 --> 01:44:17,890
Ellen Darren Duff it may well be true that Putin has a long term plan.

842
01:44:19,060 --> 01:44:24,220
Great Russia again. And you disagree.

843
01:44:24,940 --> 01:44:33,040
But we've only heard about Russia as Putin, his offensive intentions.

844
01:44:33,790 --> 01:44:38,680
Is it inconceivable that there's also a defensive element?

845
01:44:39,130 --> 01:44:42,970
My question is to Mr. Solana. I prefer broker.

846
01:44:42,970 --> 01:44:53,240
As NATO's meeting in 2008, there was a declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would become members of NATO.

847
01:44:53,800 --> 01:45:01,010
Now, the Russians took that seriously. I've read that this wasn't taken seriously by NATO.

848
01:45:01,060 --> 01:45:11,080
It was just to make George Bush happy, if it were true or was that he didn't want to be close to the truth.

849
01:45:14,800 --> 01:45:19,840
I happened to be in that lunch. I was not.

850
01:45:20,230 --> 01:45:25,840
I had nothing to do with nature. But I haven't seen a little bit of the vibe.

851
01:45:26,950 --> 01:45:30,720
And it was very clear that nobody wanted to make that mistake.

852
01:45:30,850 --> 01:45:35,950
In fact, in my view, the continuation of that would never do that.

853
01:45:36,190 --> 01:45:49,400
Then there was met. And after that, until the battle of Georgia, I think that nobody wanted to and minority didn't want that decision to take.

854
01:45:51,250 --> 01:45:59,530
Well, I think the native membership today is not the topic and for the Ukrainians in today's government.

855
01:46:00,400 --> 01:46:04,490
They are not interested in this because they, first of all, did that.

856
01:46:04,490 --> 01:46:07,780
The people there are not very much in favour of it.

857
01:46:08,230 --> 01:46:15,850
You know, the figure is better. But my feeling is that today for European unity, we have about 50% in favour.

858
01:46:15,880 --> 01:46:22,880
We have 10% against that, 90% who are looking forward for something and permit.

859
01:46:23,020 --> 01:46:26,230
I think we have more and more 30% in favour.

860
01:46:26,810 --> 01:46:29,950
So I think the nature is that is not the point.

861
01:46:30,340 --> 01:46:35,980
Now, you said if Russia tries to explain all this action because they are afraid that you could

862
01:46:36,220 --> 01:46:42,020
be the next the last a member of NATO's that is not very well received from Bucharest.

863
01:46:42,040 --> 01:46:46,389
I remember also quite well the statement of the sentence of Mr. Putin,

864
01:46:46,390 --> 01:46:51,910
and this is very sentence because in Bucharest he said that for Ukraine's artificial state.

865
01:46:53,820 --> 01:46:55,300
And that's,

866
01:46:55,330 --> 01:47:08,650
I think means this means that it is difficult to accept the independence of Ukraine if you've seen or you treat this country as artificial.

867
01:47:10,290 --> 01:47:21,320
Last question. My name is Keith Mack, and I'm a lawyer who for many years worked in Central Europe and in Ukraine.

868
01:47:23,380 --> 01:47:34,510
One important element, I think, in creating an independent Ukraine is the involvement of the oligarchs.

869
01:47:35,500 --> 01:47:39,460
You mentioned how wealthy they are.

870
01:47:39,670 --> 01:47:46,720
There's about ten or 12 people who basically control the whole of the economy in Ukraine.

871
01:47:49,550 --> 01:47:54,980
Nearly all of those people are actively involved in in politics.

872
01:47:56,100 --> 01:47:59,640
Nearly all of them finance political parties.

873
01:48:00,090 --> 01:48:09,210
There really isn't any political force that is independent of these ten, 12 individuals.

874
01:48:10,620 --> 01:48:16,050
Some of those individuals are naturally aligned with Russia.

875
01:48:16,940 --> 01:48:22,460
Perhaps not for conviction, but for economic reasons.

876
01:48:23,150 --> 01:48:30,200
The others may be leaning towards what we've got in all the West.

877
01:48:30,830 --> 01:48:35,540
The one thing's for sure is that they've been fighting each other since.

878
01:48:36,540 --> 01:48:41,850
Today Ukraine was established and they're fighting each other right now.

879
01:48:43,080 --> 01:48:55,860
And after each election in Ukraine, a new corrupt kleptocracy steps into power.

880
01:48:56,280 --> 01:49:03,330
And one of the things they do, apart from enrich themselves, is actually punish the opponents.

881
01:49:03,540 --> 01:49:09,310
So you have a very atomised society, ongoing conflict.

882
01:49:09,440 --> 01:49:14,310
The problem here is that you've got very rich and powerful men in a conflict.

883
01:49:15,180 --> 01:49:27,509
And I think part of what the international institutions need to do now is to recognise that there will be no person to negotiate any

884
01:49:27,510 --> 01:49:41,430
treaty with or have any meaningful post election state or withdrawal of political institutions unless these people voluntarily.

885
01:49:43,400 --> 01:49:56,060
Disengage from politics and turn it into some sort of concord amongst each other whereby they they recognise that they'd done well,

886
01:49:56,780 --> 01:50:07,820
that vastly wealthy, but they can't continue in the way they have because it's effectively like dealing with barons in the Middle Ages,

887
01:50:08,300 --> 01:50:18,620
but they have to voluntarily step back the way of forcing these people to do it and the benefits will come down the line.

888
01:50:20,360 --> 01:50:29,990
Every chance of having a strong economy and not economy will afford those rich men many further riches going forward.

889
01:50:30,440 --> 01:50:35,870
I cannot. But without that, I don't think it's going to change all this.

890
01:50:36,170 --> 01:50:49,700
This is a great topic. It probably will invite us again to discuss this this problem, because I agree with the structure of Ukraine.

891
01:50:49,700 --> 01:50:55,760
This combination of of money and politics, oligarchs in power is very dangerous.

892
01:50:56,810 --> 01:51:02,120
This is the problem of all old post-Soviet states.

893
01:51:02,540 --> 01:51:09,320
This is the same system we have. Of course, the differences that they start the same centuries in Russia.

894
01:51:10,460 --> 01:51:15,340
I hope that we are close to this situation, like what you described,

895
01:51:15,370 --> 01:51:24,900
that they are ready voluntarily to limit own power and only influence because they are very sure that everything will happen.

896
01:51:24,920 --> 01:51:31,850
This was a shock. And before you know, because I met all of them when we discussed the Situation Room,

897
01:51:32,270 --> 01:51:38,810
majority of them usually very condemned, were very much in favour of association and European Union and all the things.

898
01:51:39,320 --> 01:51:47,420
And I asked them metaphors of why we are so much poorer for all this, because he understood finally, after 20 years of,

899
01:51:47,480 --> 01:51:58,580
let's say, one of the capitals, that he needs rules of law, he needs the security for own money, for own property, for own life.

900
01:51:58,580 --> 01:52:02,840
For him. He needs to continue to be a more normal business.

901
01:52:03,290 --> 01:52:07,040
People will move on with their world because it enough needs.

902
01:52:07,880 --> 01:52:13,580
And then now it seems to be more longer as he was in the last 20 years.

903
01:52:14,510 --> 01:52:20,180
Of course, he's much more popular. I know he does because he decided to buy Russia from women.

904
01:52:20,180 --> 01:52:26,330
It's not so healthy with civil society.

905
01:52:26,960 --> 01:52:37,040
And so I think now they are close to understand they need rules of law, they need the change of this situation inside.

906
01:52:37,550 --> 01:52:42,320
They and they are ready more and more to limit opposition.

907
01:52:42,320 --> 01:52:52,280
But still, they have a lot of details. The first one, frankly speaking, I don't understand maybe this issue with some deeper background to make sense,

908
01:52:52,550 --> 01:52:58,030
but to propose for two oligarchs that to be new governor of Donetsk and to call

909
01:52:58,040 --> 01:53:03,910
voice for the new governor of this is something quote is absolutely against 17

910
01:53:03,920 --> 01:53:08,870
what you said because it means again that we have this combination of of money

911
01:53:08,870 --> 01:53:12,979
of all you have for political if Washington will be elected as a new president,

912
01:53:12,980 --> 01:53:21,890
if he's a new task can be that good. We haven't the real oligarchs but it might a sweet or you are to see the problem.

913
01:53:22,370 --> 01:53:34,400
I think without the set of control service from both sides, politicians and oligarchs and to its good new constitution,

914
01:53:34,610 --> 01:53:41,210
which is absolutely important and with such understanding that after the second Maidan,

915
01:53:41,570 --> 01:53:49,690
it certainly will be disaster for them because first time is okay, second time is then the third time is disaster.

916
01:53:50,270 --> 01:53:56,470
You cannot repeat the same stage during 20 years because then of course it is new because of this.

917
01:53:57,290 --> 01:54:01,130
So hopefully we have a chance for that. But this is very, very difficult.

918
01:54:01,840 --> 01:54:09,370
And and I think with a lot of ups and downs, a lot of of of of terrorism, this this.

919
01:54:10,700 --> 01:54:18,380
Probably to some quite some o'clock if you ask a really telling dramatic question, you've been asking him about the question.

920
01:54:18,420 --> 01:54:22,040
Okay. So just very short, very interesting question.

921
01:54:22,040 --> 01:54:25,700
I wrote the originally from Moscow, a Russian.

922
01:54:26,510 --> 01:54:30,500
You know what I want to say first? Oh, no, no question.

923
01:54:30,620 --> 01:54:37,099
Okay. I just thought. It's not only Putin, by the way, not only Putin, you'll be surprised within the volume,

924
01:54:37,100 --> 01:54:42,860
those of people who are in the position in Russia, they're not commenting because those are very neutral.

925
01:54:42,860 --> 01:54:44,150
So it's important to understand,

926
01:54:44,300 --> 01:54:50,540
for some reason there is a consumption within Russian elites that what Putin is doing is possibly right, but it's up for discussion.

927
01:54:50,960 --> 01:54:54,830
And that was the question. I am from the city I studied here.

928
01:54:54,830 --> 01:55:01,950
Did you feel I saw a lot of research recently, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Goldman Sachs, American banks, which are saying why Russia,

929
01:55:02,330 --> 01:55:07,100
especially the next week or the week after, were Russian shares because everything cheap since like next, of course.

930
01:55:07,380 --> 01:55:10,910
So Crimea was difficult. It's not, of course, relax.

931
01:55:10,910 --> 01:55:16,220
There'll be some sanctions. Someone who lose their property in Chelsea with nothing else, do it.

932
01:55:16,520 --> 01:55:17,500
So do you agree with that?

933
01:55:17,530 --> 01:55:24,940
I think that you know this so present scenario and target the sanctions on look actually what we are talking about that there

934
01:55:24,950 --> 01:55:31,790
will be acceleration of the speech and it opens up a new sort of economic standoff with very serious implications for Moscow.

935
01:55:32,060 --> 01:55:40,430
What's your first impression about how to handle this is what you think?

936
01:55:43,790 --> 01:55:53,920
Well, I wouldn't bet. You know, I think the Goldman Sachs I.

937
01:55:54,110 --> 01:55:59,370
I think this is a beginning. This is not the first time.

938
01:56:00,980 --> 01:56:08,300
Okay. And can I I think that was even better than I'd hoped it was going to be.

939
01:56:08,510 --> 01:56:12,470
And I think the panel were absolutely terrific.

940
01:56:13,520 --> 01:56:21,560
That was a wow factor Oxford event. And I'd like you all to express your gratitude in the customary way.

941
01:56:21,890 --> 01:56:44,590
Not with a crouching, but with a standing of it. Through it.