1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:08,260 Thank you, technical staff. Welcome, everyone. What I think is going to be a very exciting part of the process is quite possible. 2 00:00:09,780 --> 00:00:17,920 This college can always see a future that's going to mean something great on the walls of the college. 3 00:00:17,950 --> 00:00:24,730 It's my great pleasure to welcome you here to what is both International College and Oxford students come this 4 00:00:24,810 --> 00:00:33,030 year for 73 different countries and now want to bring in people from around the world to study the world. 5 00:00:33,330 --> 00:00:38,819 We have a number of settings attached to the college. The impression of an emerging centre, which is what I mean. 6 00:00:38,820 --> 00:00:39,540 That's right. 7 00:00:39,930 --> 00:00:47,309 And I think we have here conversations about major issues in the world and we have people who know a great deal about this part of the world. 8 00:00:47,310 --> 00:00:55,980 And I'm very lucky tonight to be having that. I like to call and Coach Hasty, who is the director of the Russian process, says, this is our chair. 9 00:01:01,500 --> 00:01:09,330 We hope that the Russian and Iranians these sentiments and I'd like to welcome all of you to this year's lecture. 10 00:01:10,230 --> 00:01:19,500 Jeffrey is generous sponsors of the activities of the centre and through that support 11 00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:24,690 were able to stage events like this for many several times throughout the year. 12 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:32,880 We would like to thank the Chancellor and the distinguished members of the panel for joining us this evening. 13 00:01:33,870 --> 00:01:41,250 We would also like to thank you. I'm the pinch of foundation for making this event possible. 14 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:43,349 Unfortunately, as you know, 15 00:01:43,350 --> 00:01:52,560 the current situation in Ukraine and the escalation of events has meant that Mr. Pinchuk was not able to attack on this occasion. 16 00:01:54,230 --> 00:02:03,080 This year's lecture deals with a very important time issue from when we first proposed this seminar, Baku, September. 17 00:02:03,620 --> 00:02:12,770 The situation, of course, is very different than the main question concern the building of it among the prospects for European integration. 18 00:02:13,730 --> 00:02:25,370 Today, the concern is Ukrainian territorial integrity, especially in light of the referendum being held in Crimea this Sunday. 19 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:37,190 So now we might consider the ways in which the outcome of this referendum is likely to affect relations internationally and in the region. 20 00:02:38,500 --> 00:02:44,980 We very much look forward to hearing your views and to those of all speakers on these questions. 21 00:02:45,790 --> 00:02:56,110 And you should note this event will be broadcast. So if you ask your question, I'm afraid you'll need to sign a consent form. 22 00:02:57,220 --> 00:03:02,110 I've been told that will be available from all student helpers. 23 00:03:02,110 --> 00:03:10,720 Emily, I'm Stephanie. That is Stephanie and I will be available after the seminar. 24 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:20,519 Thank you. Thank you very much indeed. 25 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:27,420 And I'd like to underline, as the warden has done, 26 00:03:28,830 --> 00:03:39,150 the my congratulations to the centre on showing such a timely sense in choosing the subject for today's discussion. 27 00:03:40,410 --> 00:03:49,620 And I'd just like to also underline the fact that all those of you who signed the consent form or also, as you probably know, 28 00:03:50,430 --> 00:03:57,110 resigning from any commitments which incidentally the Government may have made under the health and safety. 29 00:04:00,210 --> 00:04:10,680 So you lose out on that as well. I just want to very briefly to introduce the three panellists and then to say one thing and to offer a 30 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:17,640 couple of brief anecdotes which sort of illustrate aspects of what we'll be talking about this evening. 31 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:29,849 But first of all, to introduce the panellists, first of all in Victor Pinchuk Place is Professor Gwyn Sensei from Nuffield, 32 00:04:29,850 --> 00:04:34,500 and I think before that who perhaps contemporaneously as Anthony, 33 00:04:34,890 --> 00:04:41,580 who is a great expert on the matters that we're going to be discussing, not least the Ukraine and Crimea, 34 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:50,159 but has also written about post-communist transitions, about the process of democratisation, 35 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:58,710 about migration, about the European Union's neighbourhood policy brackets, 36 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:09,060 what that close brackets and other issues which we'll be debating, I'm sure, during the course of this afternoon and evening. 37 00:05:10,260 --> 00:05:14,520 We're obviously delighted that President Kwasniewski is with us today. 38 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:25,560 We first met at a discussion in Kharkov about two years ago when I was there with Timothy and others. 39 00:05:26,730 --> 00:05:30,360 He was elected, as you know, twice as president of Poland. 40 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:46,980 And he helped to secure Poland's such a very good transition into the European Union and into later helped to anchor a democracy in Poland. 41 00:05:47,130 --> 00:05:56,580 And to put Poland on its course to spectacular economic growth in comparison with the 42 00:05:57,030 --> 00:06:04,829 rest of the European Union is also a very valuable contribution to the scene because he, 43 00:06:04,830 --> 00:06:17,930 of course, worked in the Ukraine after the Orange Revolution and helped to make what seems to be the a hopeful beginning of the Orange Revolution. 44 00:06:17,940 --> 00:06:27,540 It's going to be interesting to hear what went wrong and why the reactions to what recently happened in Ukraine have been so different, 45 00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:34,570 not least in the Russian. And it's particularly happy chance that my old friend and colleague have you. 46 00:06:34,590 --> 00:06:48,600 Solana is also here because he too was involved in working after the Orange Revolution to secure what seemed to be a stable future for Ukraine. 47 00:06:49,530 --> 00:07:01,950 How he is a scientist, as you know, an academic minister, the secretary general of NATO's high representative to Europe's foreign and security policy, 48 00:07:02,940 --> 00:07:13,290 and a very distinguished diplomat with a huge reputation on both sides of the Atlantic and indeed both sides of the Pacific. 49 00:07:14,070 --> 00:07:18,300 So a great pleasure that he's back in Oxford today. 50 00:07:19,170 --> 00:07:22,320 Just three short points I wanted to make. 51 00:07:24,110 --> 00:07:28,930 And. I guess I've read most of Conrad over the years. 52 00:07:29,620 --> 00:07:44,460 Conrad born just southwest of here, the first bit of Conrad manuscript that exists is a handwritten note from Joseph Conrad, aged seven, 53 00:07:44,470 --> 00:07:57,150 writes to his grandmother to thank her for sending him some cakes, and after the expressions of gratitude, he signed Joseph Conrad's grandson. 54 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,140 I was joking, 55 00:08:03,370 --> 00:08:23,290 and it's a reminder of the way in that borderland the territory has moved from one sovereignty to another over the over the years to anecdotes. 56 00:08:25,910 --> 00:08:36,470 First of all have you and I were EU Ukraine summit and I guess about 2002 with President Kuchma. 57 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,170 And the summit took place in Yalta at the villa, 58 00:08:43,350 --> 00:08:51,329 which had been a which had provided meeting rooms for the Great Summit towards the end of the 59 00:08:51,330 --> 00:08:58,350 war between the allied leaders when they began to talk about the carving up in post-war Europe. 60 00:08:59,820 --> 00:09:06,480 And it was a lovely evening, and we had a great feast after the talks, which it got absolutely nowhere. 61 00:09:07,470 --> 00:09:11,170 But a great feast, not least because it was President Kuchma birthday. 62 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:20,640 And I remember we had industrial sized clumps of caviar and each place its own. 63 00:09:20,670 --> 00:09:24,030 Kara, a wonderful ice vodka. 64 00:09:25,490 --> 00:09:34,850 And halfway through this birthday piece, Cushman, who had his personal phone on the table next to him and picks it up as it rings. 65 00:09:35,870 --> 00:09:44,210 And says, hello, Vladimir Putin fanning out to wish him a happy birthday. 66 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:50,130 And I think both of them were making a point. Yes. 67 00:09:55,350 --> 00:10:05,160 The FSB. I think President Putin was making a point when I suspect that President Kuchma was making a point as well, 68 00:10:05,190 --> 00:10:15,840 that he had other fish, which he could provide. And the other anecdote, which has had, in a sense, sad consequences, 69 00:10:16,380 --> 00:10:30,450 is that my very first meeting as a European Commissioner for External Relations was with the then Ukrainian Foreign Minister Lankov. 70 00:10:30,450 --> 00:10:37,100 And what it tells you, what sort of turn, turn about over territory. 71 00:10:38,190 --> 00:10:41,910 And I saw him with a couple of my officials. 72 00:10:42,980 --> 00:10:46,850 And he asked me if I could describe. 73 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:49,780 European Neighbourhood Policy. 74 00:10:51,640 --> 00:11:03,940 So I told him that at the heart of it, as far as the Ukraine was concerned, was that the European Union recognised Ukraine's European vocation. 75 00:11:05,690 --> 00:11:09,470 And he said, Could you say exactly what that European vocation is? 76 00:11:11,350 --> 00:11:18,670 And under pressure, I fessed up. That's the one thing it didn't include was actually being a member of the European Union. 77 00:11:19,090 --> 00:11:25,810 So I said, You're telling me that you accepted Turkey as a European country, but not Ukraine? 78 00:11:28,890 --> 00:11:37,680 At the end of the meeting after one of my German officials said it's quite embarrassing for people like me said both my 79 00:11:37,680 --> 00:11:48,240 parents were born in what is now the Ukraine and my father worked for the railways in what is now Ukraine for many years. 80 00:11:49,260 --> 00:11:57,209 So I hope that during the evening, when will doubtless talk about what the European Union should do in response to what's happened in Ukraine. 81 00:11:57,210 --> 00:12:00,660 When we talk about what Russia is likely to do. 82 00:12:01,230 --> 00:12:08,310 We can just consider, among other things, how Europe is treating its neighbourhood. 83 00:12:09,570 --> 00:12:17,250 Enlargement, after all, helped to secure the stability of Europe around our borders. 84 00:12:17,970 --> 00:12:24,720 And the things of the European Neighbourhood Policy have meant that we don't have that stability alone. 85 00:12:25,050 --> 00:12:28,590 The real challenge for the future of European policy. 86 00:12:28,590 --> 00:12:37,410 Nobody can blame Europe for what's happening in North Korea, and I think we should have been rather better around our own borders. 87 00:12:38,450 --> 00:12:48,690 And I think the first speaker is going to be president and then having a similar and then subsequent. 88 00:12:57,590 --> 00:13:05,120 Thank you very much for this opportunity to speak about such a hot topic like Ukraine and the future of this country. 89 00:13:06,170 --> 00:13:13,660 But for me, this was easy because I'm also the specialist, historian, politician, etc. 90 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:25,310 It's not easy to say something what is not well-known for you, but please allow me to say some of my very personal remarks to the politician. 91 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:35,000 And as a man who was involved in Ukrainian issues from the very beginning of the independence of Ukraine and throughout the course of the President, 92 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:42,990 I collaborated very closely to construct and then of course, the abuse of the Ukrainian government. 93 00:13:43,910 --> 00:13:49,570 We were special envoys of European Union to find a solution in the so-called war on terrorism. 94 00:13:49,580 --> 00:13:57,309 And it was our idea to to to manage this this conflict and this crisis for 95 00:13:57,310 --> 00:14:04,400 all those terms about what was absolutely not according to the Constitution, 96 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,670 that was a good solution for this political situation. 97 00:14:08,090 --> 00:14:15,020 And last months, many months before Vilnius Summit, I was a special envoy, 98 00:14:15,020 --> 00:14:21,829 together with former President of the European Parliament, Peskov, a special envoy of Parliament to Ukraine. 99 00:14:21,830 --> 00:14:29,450 And we try to eliminate the last obstacles before the signing of association agreement. 100 00:14:30,380 --> 00:14:36,050 And our task was, first of all, to to watch all this judiciary reforms. 101 00:14:36,620 --> 00:14:41,000 First, the cases of political prisoners, especially Madam Tymoshenko. 102 00:14:41,390 --> 00:14:47,390 And in this capacity, I visited together with parts of Ukraine 27 times. 103 00:14:47,390 --> 00:14:55,680 We spent 18, 18 months we spent with President Yanukovych, for example. 104 00:14:55,680 --> 00:15:02,570 War is an unforgettable 50 hours and of many, many talks. 105 00:15:02,930 --> 00:15:10,860 And, of course, our feeling when Ukraine decided or Yanukovich decided to make this U-turn was deepest frustration. 106 00:15:10,940 --> 00:15:13,950 But of course, the French speaking. We did it in. 107 00:15:15,140 --> 00:15:18,440 Predict that this situation can develop in such a way. 108 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:26,960 And so we not not some sympathy and believe me, this is the dynamic of the process which we can observe since November last year. 109 00:15:27,530 --> 00:15:34,840 And I would like to organise my remarks with three elements because we have a conflict with some kind of film. 110 00:15:34,970 --> 00:15:39,140 We have Ukraine, we have Russia in the West and not only European Union, 111 00:15:39,140 --> 00:15:44,860 but the EU and the United States and Canada is quite important partner for all these 112 00:15:44,870 --> 00:15:50,840 things because in front of that we have quite a big and influential Ukrainian diaspora. 113 00:15:51,830 --> 00:15:56,090 Well, some words about Ukraine. Ukraine is is a special place in the world. 114 00:15:56,090 --> 00:16:05,360 It's a special country and a special state, because this is a state with a very, very proud history of all the state of independence. 115 00:16:05,870 --> 00:16:11,269 We can speak about independent Ukraine for some almost months after World War One. 116 00:16:11,270 --> 00:16:15,620 And now we can speak about 23 years of independence after 91. 117 00:16:16,220 --> 00:16:30,440 And this independence was to some extent a surprise to remember, because decision about independence was decided by referendum in December 1912. 118 00:16:31,580 --> 00:16:38,360 If I'm correct and I remember my talk, it's not true, because this time the leader of Ukraine and are going to Moscow, 119 00:16:38,420 --> 00:16:44,780 who was a leader of Soviet Union, and for both of them, the result of this referendum was absolutely suppressed. 120 00:16:45,740 --> 00:16:55,309 Gorbachev was sure that in this question, where Ukraine wants to stay in this reformed Soviet Union Commonwealth of independent 121 00:16:55,310 --> 00:17:00,860 states because of the new concept of Gorbachev or they want to be independent, 122 00:17:01,190 --> 00:17:09,950 his expectation was 55 to 45 in favour of this new, new Soviet Union to CIA for two preferences. 123 00:17:09,950 --> 00:17:15,950 But this was different. This the Nixon was 55 for independence, 45 for this experience. 124 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:27,650 The result was surprisingly low was turnout was something around almost 90% and the result was 90.7% for independence. 125 00:17:28,010 --> 00:17:33,020 All the rest for this is yes, of course. 126 00:17:33,020 --> 00:17:40,520 Today when we discuss about this referendum is necessary to underline this independence for many voters, 127 00:17:41,030 --> 00:17:45,430 different substance for many of them was important for many of them. 128 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:51,320 But the life of many of them was an escape from from Soviet Union sphere, etc., etc. 129 00:17:51,620 --> 00:18:01,490 But it necessary to say that 91 the independence of Ukraine was founded quite soon and the huge support of the 90% of voters, 130 00:18:01,730 --> 00:18:10,040 a huge part of of the society. And I think the first mistake in Russian perception of Ukraine is started in this moment, 131 00:18:10,610 --> 00:18:20,689 because they still think a lot of us I would say some were small, but they still think that that's at least 50% of Ukrainians. 132 00:18:20,690 --> 00:18:25,280 We are Russians and they are for Russians people. They think this is this is a wrong, wrong. 133 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:29,059 And the first independence of Ukraine is quite fresh. 134 00:18:29,060 --> 00:18:32,690 24 years is not a very long time. And after this 23 years, 135 00:18:32,690 --> 00:18:40,310 we can say about some strength of this country and a lot of much more weaknesses of these guys to the strength of this country, in my opinion. 136 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:45,200 Two elements. First is the identity, 137 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:52,729 the national identity of Ukraine develop and strength in this 23 years much they really we can 138 00:18:52,730 --> 00:18:59,629 speak about Ukrainian nation and about much more about Ukraine than they do as 23 years ago. 139 00:18:59,630 --> 00:19:04,010 And this is very important next element of thinking about the future of this country. 140 00:19:04,130 --> 00:19:07,970 They are the identity, roughly speaking, the identity of Ukrainians. 141 00:19:07,970 --> 00:19:12,170 Is that absolutely much more stronger as, for example, Belarus. 142 00:19:12,210 --> 00:19:22,610 And the next point, which is the element of the process in the last 20 years, is increasing role and developing civil society. 143 00:19:23,300 --> 00:19:24,020 In my opinion, 144 00:19:24,020 --> 00:19:34,429 civil society of Ukraine is the strongest one among all post-Soviet countries in we have the first to signal on the strength of the civil society. 145 00:19:34,430 --> 00:19:48,700 It was the Orange Revolution to for 2005. And after this Orange Revolution, the process of of establishment of civil society, accelerated development. 146 00:19:48,860 --> 00:19:59,420 And today it is necessary to say that we have not only in Kiev, not only in western part of Ukraine, but also in eastern. 147 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:05,270 And I visited many places of the east, like Donetsk, Petrovsky or Kharkiv. 148 00:20:05,570 --> 00:20:12,229 And this civil society maybe not so strong as in Kiev, but is existing and is important factor of everything. 149 00:20:12,230 --> 00:20:15,690 What is what is the. We have them. 150 00:20:17,580 --> 00:20:21,750 And then of course, the list of some positives elements is almost finished, 151 00:20:21,750 --> 00:20:25,829 unfortunately, and then is necessary to say about the weaknesses of the country. 152 00:20:25,830 --> 00:20:33,600 And among these weaknesses of the country is a law. The first is that this country is really historically, economically, very divided. 153 00:20:34,290 --> 00:20:38,369 And normally we speak about this division between East and West, Russian speaking, 154 00:20:38,370 --> 00:20:43,380 part of Ukraine speaking far more humanistic and more pro-Russian, etc. 155 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,350 And this line is, of course, quite important. 156 00:20:46,350 --> 00:20:54,720 But unfortunately, this is not only one line of Ukraine, because now we see the next line of division of Crimea and the continent. 157 00:20:55,380 --> 00:21:01,530 And then we have a huge division between metropolis and problems, but affairs of the country. 158 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:09,389 We have a huge difference between old generation, much more homeless of people's generation and young generation, 159 00:21:09,390 --> 00:21:17,490 much more westernised generation, which is better educated with a lot of experience from many places of the world, especially Poland. 160 00:21:17,490 --> 00:21:21,209 But not only they are travelling with us in many languages, 161 00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:34,440 etc. and we have of course the problem with the rich people and poor people because everything will happen in the last four years. 162 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:40,200 This is something what is maybe the source of next dramatic tensions in this stuff. 163 00:21:41,460 --> 00:21:49,860 But one example, Poland and Ukraine stop the 23rd wealthiest and more or less from the same level. 164 00:21:50,730 --> 00:21:58,560 The GDP per capita was almost two today for a country that is 3.5 times bigger as Ukraine. 165 00:22:00,120 --> 00:22:07,020 But the regions for the regions business in Poland has no chances to be among first than Ukraine. 166 00:22:08,110 --> 00:22:11,790 The richest Ukrainians are extremely rich and the poor Ukraine. 167 00:22:11,820 --> 00:22:18,840 Our opportunity is to report and in my opinion, this is the next element of the tensions which can be very dramatic. 168 00:22:19,290 --> 00:22:30,060 The next in next month's, the next problem of the country, in the next weakness of this country is the weakness of the institutions of the state. 169 00:22:31,230 --> 00:22:34,290 And that is, of course, a complicated issue. 170 00:22:34,290 --> 00:22:45,029 But I think to allow the political elites in Ukraine, they are fighting against each other from the very beginning, in fact, 171 00:22:45,030 --> 00:22:47,670 only in very short period after the independence, 172 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:56,990 who had some kind of bipartisan approach or such a common approach to main strategic elements of Ukraine. 173 00:22:57,030 --> 00:22:59,910 First, and this is the next difference between, for example, 174 00:22:59,920 --> 00:23:12,930 for my country and the EU and Poland for remain strategic goals like NATO's European Union, we have very wide bipartisan or many partisan support. 175 00:23:13,500 --> 00:23:20,430 Yesterday, the Senate celebrated 52 year anniversary of our new commitment, 176 00:23:21,030 --> 00:23:31,679 and especially with new circumstances and new situation, we realise how important it is for us to be in this position. 177 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,759 But it was possible, but from the very beginning, main goals of our policy, 178 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:43,409 strategic goals of foreign policy were accepted and supported by very wide spectrum of political forces in Ukraine. 179 00:23:43,410 --> 00:23:50,640 Unfortunately not. We have a very divided and spectrum of of of political parties, of politicians. 180 00:23:50,970 --> 00:24:01,110 And frankly speaking, especially since 2002, we have never ending war between these two main groups of politicians, 181 00:24:02,190 --> 00:24:11,159 pro-Western and pro-nuclear, and besides Yushchenko, Yanukovich and Yanukovich Tymoshenko last years. 182 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,240 That is a such a very spectacular example of this never ending fight. 183 00:24:15,540 --> 00:24:23,580 And the talk of of Ukrainian parliament and the next evidences of this weakness of the state is corrupt. 184 00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:27,870 Corruption really in Ukraine is is is dramatic. 185 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:34,409 And even more important is the corruption in Ukraine, especially during this time, was systematic, 186 00:24:34,410 --> 00:24:40,710 was it was an element of the system organised and conducted and led by the president of the country. 187 00:24:41,490 --> 00:24:46,200 And that is something what is what was true even when he was the president. 188 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:55,679 And now we have a lot of information and a lot of them know that he was the leader of of this wall system, the corruption, 189 00:24:55,680 --> 00:25:08,190 state corruption, which is on all levels of of the society and under all levels of the of the public institutions in Ukraine. 190 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:14,010 And, of course, next weakness of Ukraine is economy, which is very. 191 00:25:14,370 --> 00:25:23,700 Michael Stipe is not enough reformed in the last 20 years, is not modernised, is very much independent of the Russian market. 192 00:25:24,210 --> 00:25:30,630 And, of course, for the future of Ukraine, the modernisation of this whole structure, 193 00:25:30,630 --> 00:25:39,810 the entire structure of the economy is is a must is something what they have to do in very difficult social and political conditions, 194 00:25:39,810 --> 00:25:47,790 which we have now, and which, in my opinion, you are a little bit lost through the years. 195 00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:53,250 So Ukraine is in very difficult, internal, very difficult situation. 196 00:25:53,730 --> 00:26:01,530 And of course, this decision to go to the east or to the west is one of the strategic decisions of the country, 197 00:26:01,830 --> 00:26:13,440 but is very much combined with many of other elements which create such a complicated and quite dark picture of the situation in Ukraine. 198 00:26:14,430 --> 00:26:17,170 Then next element of this triangle, Russia, 199 00:26:17,850 --> 00:26:27,420 both Russia and we say some simple words because in mind that I was asked many times if I understand the politics of Putin, what he's doing. 200 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:40,590 I'm so sorry that my answer would be so simple. Let me be an honest person that Putin has one goal. 201 00:26:40,770 --> 00:26:45,600 And this goal is to create euro zone, to create new superpower. 202 00:26:45,900 --> 00:26:50,500 And for this superpower, he needs Ukraine. He needs in time. 203 00:26:51,580 --> 00:26:55,720 He needs, of course, Crimea is a part of Ukraine. He needs eastern Ukraine is a part of it. 204 00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:01,270 But his main goal is to have Ukraine entire Ukraine as a part of this. 205 00:27:01,450 --> 00:27:04,750 His main idea, main project is new. 206 00:27:05,020 --> 00:27:10,910 Why he's fighting so much for Eurasian Union, because that's his main element in his mind, too, 207 00:27:11,140 --> 00:27:20,140 to be one of the most influential historical leaders of this country after the treatment of the great Joseph Stalin. 208 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,940 And he would be number four. This is not a child in 2000 quotes. 209 00:27:24,940 --> 00:27:28,300 Sounds like a joke, but this is not a joke. This is this is his dream. 210 00:27:28,310 --> 00:27:31,770 This is his politics. And this is his determination. 211 00:27:32,050 --> 00:27:39,280 And this is what we have to understand and not to be naive and not believe in something because there's no losers. 212 00:27:40,390 --> 00:27:48,010 And of course, he was very close to have entire Ukraine in this concept for Europe as a rule because. 213 00:27:50,740 --> 00:27:56,950 You decided not to sign the Association Agreement and the plan prepared by Putin. 214 00:27:56,950 --> 00:28:02,649 Yanukovich was followed not to sign an association agreement to support Ukrainian 215 00:28:02,650 --> 00:28:08,260 economy by 15 billion U.S. dollars to support Yanukovich in the election 2015, 216 00:28:08,650 --> 00:28:15,940 and to have Yanukovich in the hands of Russia next year, 4050, the next year, and the next step would be exact. 217 00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:18,250 Now. March, April 2014. 218 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:27,040 To change the status of Ukraine in Customs Union from the Status of Observers into status of of a full member of the Customs Union and then 219 00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:39,270 Ukraine as a member of customs union will be the the one of the founders of Eurasian Union 2050 or 2016 together with Russia and Kazakhstan. 220 00:28:39,670 --> 00:28:48,399 And this was and was very close to who to fulfil this that the problem what is the problem of all the leaders of post-Soviet region is that 221 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:56,440 they they don't understand what means in society and they don't understand what means the real need of the people and how the people. 222 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:03,400 Sometimes we can go to demonstrate something that is absolutely out of the imagination of these leaders, because for them, 223 00:29:03,410 --> 00:29:10,690 if some who's going to protest or to demonstrate something should be paid by CIA or other intelligence from the world. 224 00:29:11,050 --> 00:29:19,320 It cannot be spontaneous movement, which is a reaction and some disappointment and humiliation, frustration, etc., etc. 225 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:24,450 Demonstration, who I doubt was the result of this U-turn of Yanukovich, 226 00:29:24,700 --> 00:29:33,700 which was absolutely not explained to the people because communication between the government and the people in the society was something ground zero. 227 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,940 And of course the frustration because of the lack of this association agreement 228 00:29:40,330 --> 00:29:46,450 started to change suddenly and in the frustration of the quality of leadership, 229 00:29:46,450 --> 00:29:53,110 of corruption, of the frustration that social situation, the economy, etc., etc. 230 00:29:53,350 --> 00:30:00,340 This is mentioned in process of some student demonstration protest which we know very well for a Poland. 231 00:30:00,350 --> 00:30:10,220 So we is it in 1991 it's exactly the same procedure and the same process and the same change of of arguments and expectations, etc., etc. 232 00:30:10,870 --> 00:30:14,220 And of course. This project collapsed. 233 00:30:14,950 --> 00:30:20,080 Is this idea because Yanukovich is, you know, one of the stars finally escape? 234 00:30:20,530 --> 00:30:26,260 And today we have a new situation for Russia, which Russia, in my opinion, was the manager of following way. 235 00:30:26,350 --> 00:30:30,640 First, Crimea is the first element of this, the newest nation of of Ukraine. 236 00:30:31,300 --> 00:30:34,540 And, of course, premier is today practically in Russian hands. 237 00:30:34,930 --> 00:30:38,680 And so maybe even my colleagues, they have some idea what we can do. 238 00:30:39,340 --> 00:30:48,729 And I'm quite pessimistic. I don't know what we can do without having Russian troops going to the bases of unstable and the 239 00:30:48,730 --> 00:30:58,330 referendum which will have a result 90% in favour of of of of of of of Russia and as it was, 240 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:08,110 very small group. And the next step of of of Putin is this the immunisation of eastern Ukraine, especially before election 25th of May, 241 00:31:08,890 --> 00:31:15,760 because for him is very important to say that he cannot become the new president of Ukraine because this election was not fair, 242 00:31:16,090 --> 00:31:22,630 not free, that we have an election, only 60, 70% of polling station. 243 00:31:22,870 --> 00:31:28,960 And this destabilisation would be the permanent element of Ukraine of Russian policy towards Europe. 244 00:31:29,380 --> 00:31:32,820 The next step after 24 years away would be to continue this. 245 00:31:34,090 --> 00:31:42,400 And this is very easy because with subsidies the problem, the new government will have not so much time to solve these problems. 246 00:31:42,430 --> 00:31:46,149 Not enough money to do it. And we will have the government of Yeltsin. 247 00:31:46,150 --> 00:31:53,950 You can be president when we have an enormous pressure from the side of Maidan, from the side of the people, 248 00:31:54,190 --> 00:32:01,660 to show some positive effects of what happened in this revolution, 2013, 2040. 249 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,680 And in my opinion, the idea of putting today is to wait. 250 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,840 We don't know when it will happen. The new government will collapse. 251 00:32:11,170 --> 00:32:16,600 And this Maidan number two, because Maidan number one was always the one that was my number two is Maidan. 252 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:25,209 Number two would be replaced by my number three, which will be very much against Maidan number two and will open some possibilities to create 253 00:32:25,210 --> 00:32:31,780 more pro-Russian government and to create some new possibilities to say also to Europeans, 254 00:32:31,780 --> 00:32:35,800 look, this country's fallen. This country is not predictable. 255 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,600 You have no chances to be serious partner to solve the problems of Ukraine. 256 00:32:40,780 --> 00:32:44,370 And we are another place that is my enemy. 257 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:50,740 This and knowing quite well this region knowing quite well my partner's from from our past is for Russia. 258 00:32:50,980 --> 00:32:57,490 I almost drew that this scenario will go on this way and we will not be the last point very strongly, 259 00:32:57,490 --> 00:33:01,180 because much of the discussions of European Union and Korea, 260 00:33:02,470 --> 00:33:08,590 European Union and the West, we are of course in extremely difficult situation because we are not a democratic structure. 261 00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:13,890 We cannot use the methods which are against our values, our tradition. 262 00:33:14,770 --> 00:33:18,670 And frankly speaking, we have not enough instruments, 263 00:33:19,460 --> 00:33:28,180 even even these democratic useful because to organise huge support the financial support for for for Ukraine it needs time, 264 00:33:28,180 --> 00:33:39,459 it needs a lot of discussions, etc. But my suggestion and I discussed with almost everybody in Europe what I could say. 265 00:33:39,460 --> 00:33:49,180 So, first of all is to understand the investigation is necessary to understand that this Ukrainian crisis is not for days, 266 00:33:49,180 --> 00:33:52,059 not for weeks, not for months. This is a question for four years. 267 00:33:52,060 --> 00:33:58,480 Then the next, if we want to react correctly, is necessary to understand what Russia wants to do. 268 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:09,219 And secondly, it is necessary to prepare us in which will be very common, very and prepared from from all the West, 269 00:34:09,220 --> 00:34:20,510 including USA and the government, because solidarity in this case Libya is more valuable as even some elements of this of this problem we have. 270 00:34:20,530 --> 00:34:27,880 Because if if Russia because this is the next president of Russia very from day sides with quite politics. 271 00:34:28,240 --> 00:34:33,970 They want to play various plays with different elements of strength of the west. 272 00:34:34,540 --> 00:34:43,850 I will saying many times for Russia doesn't exist one European police they have 28 plus one European policy. 273 00:34:44,500 --> 00:34:51,399 This plan to this and current bilateral contacts with European countries members 274 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:56,710 of EU with some of them privileged with some of them and some of them like that. 275 00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:02,470 And this plus one is the less important policy. This is towards Brussels, towards European institutions also. 276 00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:12,070 And of course we should understand that this is Russian contact contact concept in front and we should propose something with more common policies. 277 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:20,340 A lot of solidarity and actions and understanding the situation is serious and can be. 278 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,880 Thank you very much. The president and everyone who like to read. 279 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:47,780 Okay. Okay. So thank you very much for coming to be with us today. 280 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:57,860 Thank you very much. We appreciate it. And thank you very much for all that you're working with you and Mary Margaret, thank you very much here. 281 00:35:58,010 --> 00:36:04,549 You know how much I admire you and I read your books and how much I want to drive through one of your books. 282 00:36:04,550 --> 00:36:14,510 Very important, because you must make it very difficult to do say something meaningful, like after Alexander Graham. 283 00:36:14,510 --> 00:36:20,030 Yes, it was a school, but I would try to say something to try to make it mean. 284 00:36:20,870 --> 00:36:25,100 I think to begin with, a little history with Ukraine, 285 00:36:26,420 --> 00:36:32,719 because I think we understand that probably we will understand a little bit better is the relation 286 00:36:32,720 --> 00:36:37,910 between Ukraine and Russia and Russia in the European Union and the Ukraine and the European. 287 00:36:39,050 --> 00:36:42,730 The first time I was in Ukraine investigation, which one? 288 00:36:43,650 --> 00:36:49,610 It was two years after the sentence, the first time in 2002, three years ago. 289 00:36:50,930 --> 00:37:05,240 And I had constructed a very good, strong relationship with them and I was very, very attached to Ukraine and I'd be doing that. 290 00:37:06,710 --> 00:37:11,810 I think, in my view, two or three dates in my life with Ukraine, which I think are important to understand. 291 00:37:13,370 --> 00:37:21,320 The first thing is that when they signed the 1994 agreement for the recording session with Ukraine, 292 00:37:22,070 --> 00:37:32,940 remember that he was signed by your country like Russia, then by the United States, and there it was absolutely recognised. 293 00:37:33,050 --> 00:37:39,080 They were intended to train as an independent country and to defend. 294 00:37:39,890 --> 00:37:45,350 But a few years after that I happened to be in Sebastopol. 295 00:37:46,190 --> 00:37:50,450 Sebastopol was the closest nobody for them to into to Moscow. 296 00:37:50,450 --> 00:37:53,690 Mm. Then I left, I was 53, you old. 297 00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:58,100 And I put into Sebastopol. In Sebastopol. 298 00:37:58,100 --> 00:38:04,790 The impression, by God, this for me, unforgettable. He was there to have two things, truly. 299 00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:17,449 One, to notice that they been separated a few years before that and we were very lucky we're not to spectacular of maybe to go into control in the 300 00:38:17,450 --> 00:38:31,399 world really basically dismantled basically somewhere in 1750 but to to really something that you have to give your life in the same place 301 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:41,890 we were to live one them great things yeah we would rough it the people that were in the Russian and Ukraine they were but in fact because 302 00:38:41,970 --> 00:38:50,209 we belong to the same so and we go back to do it the other day the other day when the the new version of the Republic of the American is, 303 00:38:50,210 --> 00:38:54,890 of course, they abandoned appointed the new chief of military staff. 304 00:38:55,280 --> 00:39:02,870 It was maybe if you send me to the sabbatical and then when he found cancel is impossible 305 00:39:03,220 --> 00:39:08,450 to leave will say goodbye to you and I will be part of the people of Sebastopol. 306 00:39:08,690 --> 00:39:16,339 What different options were there? So these people since Mr. Ferry to understand what is in this world what is the 307 00:39:16,340 --> 00:39:20,300 relationship is still look the generation particularly areas of military people 308 00:39:21,470 --> 00:39:26,410 who simply so close together which is difficult to see what is a separate and 309 00:39:26,420 --> 00:39:31,580 separate and part of a simple thing that they want to tell you is September 11th, 310 00:39:32,780 --> 00:39:35,930 3:00 in the afternoon, I was 18. 311 00:39:36,530 --> 00:39:45,270 Well, it wasn't great. I think it was one day in the mountains in the old house of Rosneft, having lunch with that person. 312 00:39:46,740 --> 00:39:55,819 And when the telephone rang saying that September 11th, the big catastrophe taking place, he didn't know anything. 313 00:39:55,820 --> 00:39:57,380 You came to me. 314 00:39:57,710 --> 00:40:06,650 And from there on you can imagine that we had a fantastic experience of having lived together, so I constructed a pretty good relationship with them. 315 00:40:07,130 --> 00:40:11,810 Now I want to tell you something which is very important to understand when they will say, 316 00:40:11,810 --> 00:40:15,980 because we don't make it, we tend to expand means at the least. 317 00:40:16,970 --> 00:40:27,650 Remember that day in 1989 when the integration of Germany, the most difficult part, one of the most difficult part was to get this reunified. 318 00:40:27,650 --> 00:40:42,260 Germany, it made. Because if all devastated it was moving to the east and then we get to Nazis and they go to some members of the forest and blacks, 319 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,210 and we were to move a game in that least. 320 00:40:47,300 --> 00:40:57,050 And I thought that time and everybody understood, Americans understood and understood that that could not be done without having a conversation. 321 00:40:57,060 --> 00:41:00,050 We would say no to the compensation question. 322 00:41:01,770 --> 00:41:10,850 And that was a very easy thing to do, really convince the Russians that we are going and we were going to continue moving the border towards east, 323 00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:15,650 that we started negotiating with Primakov at the time, foreign minister, 324 00:41:15,650 --> 00:41:19,670 then prime minister and very interesting personalities, very focussed on that. 325 00:41:20,270 --> 00:41:26,570 And I would tell you what happened that day was 27th of January 1997, 326 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:34,860 and I was in the dacha in Moscow we speak and the delegation of the of the nation very, 327 00:41:34,860 --> 00:41:49,550 very and after two or three vodkas and when you have to remember his father's life and and father and I presented my kit, 328 00:41:50,210 --> 00:41:55,550 my case and well, we are going to this and we want to do it in cooperation. 329 00:41:56,990 --> 00:42:05,600 And I explain what was the deal, etc. And he took a walk and said, Come here, let's go for a walk. 330 00:42:05,900 --> 00:42:12,710 What's not? And we went for a walk alone without any policeman or anything. 331 00:42:13,190 --> 00:42:16,640 And the duct tape was down on the floor. 332 00:42:17,390 --> 00:42:24,620 And I thought I would first to do exactly the message, Come here, I'm going to accept this. 333 00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:29,240 But I want to tell you what for me would be an asset. 334 00:42:31,270 --> 00:42:40,510 For me, it would be unacceptable that any threats from the far right will be taking sides. 335 00:42:41,290 --> 00:42:42,040 So I'm sorry. 336 00:42:43,070 --> 00:42:52,510 You to me, something I can read that will depend on how well we are able to relate that to NATO and the European Union and Russian Federation. 337 00:42:52,510 --> 00:43:01,970 And we look at what we can do that we train together and without complication, we will not sit down. 338 00:43:03,490 --> 00:43:13,300 Ukraine was at the heart of his heart and heart and heart because his life troubles that was born in Kiev. 339 00:43:13,630 --> 00:43:17,590 So my life passes and he is in my. 340 00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:25,270 Exactly. And he was obsessed with me since the day that we had one moment. 341 00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:31,460 It was very, very important because I did something very important for me. 342 00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:40,510 We said the same moment at the same time. He took me to the lodge and took place in which we signed an agreement with Russia. 343 00:43:41,110 --> 00:43:48,490 We had an agreement, Ukraine with 35 Ukraine as an important player, and we wanted to give him that. 344 00:43:48,700 --> 00:43:54,900 To give him that because we promised a serious country, a big country for Geneva people. 345 00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,100 So from the very beginning, we have been dealing with it. 346 00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:07,020 He is in the grave with great respect and really this was not going to be the question, 347 00:44:07,030 --> 00:44:16,960 but we knew we wanted to live that and have done so often that to the extent has talked about it involved the Orange Revolution, 348 00:44:17,590 --> 00:44:20,560 the Vietnam Revolution. I would like to underline two things. 349 00:44:21,130 --> 00:44:30,760 One, that was really the 9th of December knowing all and people were there really very, very, very committed. 350 00:44:30,990 --> 00:44:37,480 We were truly making simple unity. 351 00:44:38,430 --> 00:44:45,459 Okay. Making example had been what we said not long ago, not only three months. 352 00:44:45,460 --> 00:44:53,470 We think all year he was really somebody with a tremendous time because of this very difficult time. 353 00:44:53,950 --> 00:45:00,240 And then you had a fantastic leader that it was really of the masses really was. 354 00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,610 And we do that, but we solved the problem. 355 00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:11,100 And let me underline, once we solved that problem in the roundtable roundtable, even with the European Union. 356 00:45:11,290 --> 00:45:21,790 Let me gentlemen, myself, the Russians were represented by ten women and the chairman of the do good and good 357 00:45:21,790 --> 00:45:26,800 man who has left me one who one election four days and what we wanted to change 358 00:45:27,340 --> 00:45:36,219 because the nation fear and the U.S. so then to the two presidents they want a full 359 00:45:36,220 --> 00:45:42,070 and voluntary change for Vietnam because the next year the Russians the Europeans 360 00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:48,130 stop thinking about that because peace is something that we should've done this time 361 00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:55,450 it roundtable of I think we have not been a we talk you and me sometimes we spend 362 00:45:55,450 --> 00:46:01,239 one day in Milan doing all those last weeks talking about how we could create the 363 00:46:01,240 --> 00:46:07,330 conditions to recuperate and the spirits and that we solved the crisis in 2000. 364 00:46:07,330 --> 00:46:15,410 And now from 2000 and 2007, from 2004 to 2004. 365 00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:26,260 Ten, ten years in those ten years, in my opinion from the opinion Ukraine has wasted dramatically. 366 00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:40,870 It's time with people and economic political because they feel able to construct a political party system they don't have in a single army, 367 00:46:41,350 --> 00:46:52,600 because we, despite the immediate fighting started, we couldn't make the okay and you need to make impossible to become capable. 368 00:46:53,320 --> 00:47:00,640 So we stand here for me has been the most frustrating being in relation with Ukraine, because I talk to them. 369 00:47:01,300 --> 00:47:03,280 You talk to them. Yes. To Moldavia. 370 00:47:03,370 --> 00:47:11,590 They can see after we have we have made in the over the last year how we will be and is full is that this is 60 but 371 00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:18,790 that they said and they want to you because this is to what I said in the constitution which are taking place now. 372 00:47:18,790 --> 00:47:23,490 The situation today fast as of the time they have said is very, very difficult. 373 00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:30,100 But I think two mistake you make the first mistake they lost. 374 00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:39,020 Not to go for the risk of the three ministers not to have died before they went. 375 00:47:40,700 --> 00:47:46,970 That's been taken a week before. The situation is still ready to make it. 376 00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,800 The agreement the president made. 377 00:47:50,390 --> 00:47:59,200 You see, the Russians were there and we made some friends with Russian President Putin, who was the president of the commission, 378 00:47:59,210 --> 00:48:04,760 also the Foreign Office of the Foreign Relations that's known as the ombudsman of Russia. 379 00:48:05,210 --> 00:48:11,840 He said somebody constructive and he was effective in the conversation, but it was impossible to implement. 380 00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,649 The agreement was very, 381 00:48:15,650 --> 00:48:29,420 very good when and they will do it in the right political at the end of the year 2000 and this year in which we have not ended Putin, 382 00:48:29,420 --> 00:48:35,060 as we have said to the court, that is. 383 00:48:35,510 --> 00:48:38,330 But we cannot say that for sure. 384 00:48:38,870 --> 00:48:50,840 But it seems to me that Yanukovich last because Putin told me, is this operation, do you think ever can we do that in the state? 385 00:48:51,740 --> 00:48:57,469 The situation will continue to be much worse because it was in a way very favourable 386 00:48:57,470 --> 00:49:05,060 to the leader because the total of the unity in elections before the end of the year. 387 00:49:06,620 --> 00:49:18,950 So that's one mistake. And the second mistake, he was in the same time not having to take the agreement of 1994, 388 00:49:20,060 --> 00:49:32,750 agreement where by agreement you remember a country which is a big, big chocolate of the missiles of Russia. 389 00:49:33,230 --> 00:49:40,240 And the agreement would be taken by Russia with the signature of the United States of Russia in your country. 390 00:49:40,250 --> 00:49:46,260 As I said before, the signatories had the obligation to do article. 391 00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,200 I don't remember that one. 392 00:49:48,200 --> 00:50:00,080 I completely agree on guaranteeing the integrity of Ukraine, the security of Ukraine written down there in south in it for more than we want to spend. 393 00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:09,200 How much how many hours we spent on that one night in the in that will remember another name that I don't know three 394 00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:17,360 or four maybe we spend together to try to mobilise that that degree to Putin partners agreement and find a solution. 395 00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:27,380 Right let's continue in Russia, the United States and European and think that if we could have done that, 396 00:50:28,130 --> 00:50:32,440 we could have presented all for us open economic help. 397 00:50:33,500 --> 00:50:37,970 The situation is in Ukraine is in default. 398 00:50:39,650 --> 00:50:42,770 The European Union does have money to give them up. 399 00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:46,790 The Americans don't have the money at this point of law. 400 00:50:46,790 --> 00:50:59,569 One reason that Russia has the money, and I am concerned about that they continue that they are met with absolutely impossible to accept. 401 00:50:59,570 --> 00:51:04,570 My country got very difficult to do that because of Argentina. 402 00:51:04,820 --> 00:51:13,400 And so they are maybe maybe coming back now and that time that we need to call for an agreement of that nature. 403 00:51:13,820 --> 00:51:25,040 We will we will allow to have a brain getting out of the crisis into political control or attitude of time lending. 404 00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:31,160 The loan was given by the states, Russia and the European Union controlling that, too. 405 00:51:31,580 --> 00:51:38,780 So that was the thing that we were not good enough or rotten enough or didn't have influence with both of us. 406 00:51:38,780 --> 00:51:49,100 We don't have any power, but it was not done. And I think there's still a momentum of time instead of what was done is statements. 407 00:51:49,850 --> 00:51:57,770 And this included Maiden Minister, which I don't see the role of the ministers from both who might not believe. 408 00:51:57,770 --> 00:52:03,790 So today in the face. I don't think the prime minister in a situation like this. 409 00:52:04,460 --> 00:52:13,370 Oh, no. I mean, I tell you the consequence from I think we have had a very complicated situation for President Bush. 410 00:52:14,150 --> 00:52:26,960 US and the Chinese have said one best, and Putin wants a customs union in the customs union with Ukraine because otherwise he would be a leader of it. 411 00:52:26,990 --> 00:52:30,020 That's the kind of thing wants to have a European you. 412 00:52:30,180 --> 00:52:37,830 What he needs, right. Importing people sophisticated to try to see into that. 413 00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:43,530 Now he will get we've got a staff and you follow the news of the last days. 414 00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:54,890 One which is really funny is that you can really see himself now in a very complicated situation ID to do stuff, 415 00:52:54,980 --> 00:53:01,940 software, something similar or something more dramatic or he's the only one who is. 416 00:53:02,020 --> 00:53:12,630 If he looks now in Ukraine, he's not in the customs union and [INAUDIBLE] be the leader of a customs union and he doesn't want to be. 417 00:53:12,910 --> 00:53:18,510 They've got to solve their problems. Then we get past the United States of Europe. 418 00:53:19,410 --> 00:53:31,170 I think that the crisis in Ukraine last, the crisis in the last negotiation from that last party standing fast, 419 00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:45,580 maybe it is too much and maybe that pressure from the right, from the Tea Parties are going to put on hold on Obama may mean that he has a reaction. 420 00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:54,930 We still don't know when, but I think the situation this the global situation now has changed very much, 421 00:53:54,930 --> 00:53:58,650 much more than we think for the situation in Ukraine. 422 00:53:59,130 --> 00:54:05,820 Now, for the Europeans, we want to look at Ukraine as a problem of the big powers. 423 00:54:07,270 --> 00:54:16,000 Both would prefer to solve this problem as a drawing between the European Union and one of the most important neighbours. 424 00:54:17,470 --> 00:54:28,660 If we enter today into any conflict, I think that would be very difficult because this is a zero sum game for some people. 425 00:54:29,500 --> 00:54:40,360 Now if we can substantive can't afford this and try to bring it to a situation of regional European Union peacefully in Russia, 426 00:54:40,510 --> 00:54:44,160 not in terms of American, not in terms of the big powers. 427 00:54:44,170 --> 00:54:50,680 But, you know, I think there is still some possibility to resolve this in a much better manner. 428 00:54:51,220 --> 00:54:54,670 And this is not it's not like that is not important. 429 00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:58,130 It's not. We have to find the will to do that of now. 430 00:54:58,420 --> 00:55:06,940 And so I think this can because it's and it has to move from the details of the situation. 431 00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:18,610 I think that today, my my my impression today from the meeting which is taking place right now between the Curley and Lavrov. 432 00:55:19,730 --> 00:55:26,900 There is a chance that something may come out of this conversation in the formation of something, 433 00:55:27,110 --> 00:55:36,800 possibly not an offshoot of a contact group, a contact group which may help move that forward. 434 00:55:37,220 --> 00:55:48,280 The first contact between Putin and the government of Kiev, which link him not talking to each other and contact for feedback, 435 00:55:48,290 --> 00:55:59,250 would be the the envelope for some contact between Putin, somebody and somebody from Kiev and things like that. 436 00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:11,540 We are really very critical of some places for this particular problem, also for Syria, because they will not be easy and control Syria. 437 00:56:11,810 --> 00:56:16,720 We felt so insecure in May and then you put on it. 438 00:56:16,820 --> 00:56:23,440 The problem that we have dealt with on this May, you mentioned earlier, it's a big complication. 439 00:56:23,450 --> 00:56:34,940 All the elements of some of the maybe the only solution is you may move an intervention to the Eastern Ghouta is that we can you know, 440 00:56:35,540 --> 00:56:39,050 I insist we want something that we don't insist enough. 441 00:56:39,410 --> 00:56:45,560 What Putin wants is that, you know, the Free Syrian Army. 442 00:56:46,340 --> 00:56:54,230 That's the do you know very well the difference between a free trade agreement, that Europe is a free trade agreement, which is what we offer. 443 00:56:54,500 --> 00:56:57,130 We offer a free trade agreement plus. 444 00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:05,359 But basically the association agreement and a free trade agreement based and the other side is a custom you know, 445 00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:17,630 from good is much better but from trade is very very bad because you are in fact the union you have the tariff bank lending. 446 00:57:17,810 --> 00:57:22,300 You says the whole country is fixed by the union. 447 00:57:23,930 --> 00:57:31,040 That means it will be fixed. But to make it possible to Russian so great in a customs union is incompatible. 448 00:57:32,450 --> 00:57:37,130 It went with a free trade agreement with the European. 449 00:57:37,850 --> 00:57:46,260 So the question is this is more tricky than when we reset because I mean, the idea you don't have to choose, okay? 450 00:57:46,670 --> 00:57:49,680 You don't have to choose. But even the offer isn't custom. 451 00:57:49,700 --> 00:57:54,559 You union, you are choosing in a way that you will not have economic relations with the 452 00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:59,060 third parties because you will not have the freedom to seek to have tariffs. 453 00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:05,300 And that is a delicate point, and nobody looks into that. 454 00:58:05,630 --> 00:58:09,890 But it's not a free trade agreement, the free trade agreement. 455 00:58:10,490 --> 00:58:17,900 So that complicates the issue very much. Also for the European Union, for us, we want to have good relations with Ukraine. 456 00:58:18,410 --> 00:58:27,170 We like to have at least a free rein in that it will be very difficult to achieve if they have a part in that. 457 00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:39,020 Okay. Thank you very much. Professor. 458 00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:43,940 Thank you. Thanks for inviting me to be on this panel. A Late Edition, I realise. 459 00:58:43,940 --> 00:58:56,900 But I do think that today we've heard a lot about real insights into crisis situations and particularly the present when negotiations took place. 460 00:58:57,320 --> 00:59:00,740 As an academic, I haven't been in those situations. 461 00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:08,180 So I listen to events, both possibly on what's happening today from the sidelines, from outside. 462 00:59:08,540 --> 00:59:15,980 But perhaps one can provide an overall context. So make us maybe also closing for some lessons might be already today. 463 00:59:17,390 --> 00:59:20,690 Maybe the middle of a crisis is not a lot of good moments to pause. 464 00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,620 But I think a few elements are already clear. 465 00:59:24,710 --> 00:59:27,630 I want to talk a little bit about Ukraine, 466 00:59:27,630 --> 00:59:34,520 the lessons that she's saying about Ukraine's transition and then following up on what we heard already and with a few comments on Crimea, 467 00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,760 and I'm sure that you're eager to to launch into the discussion. 468 00:59:38,870 --> 00:59:47,540 I think one of the key things that we see today is how risky, ambivalent policies have been. 469 00:59:47,870 --> 00:59:53,510 And I'm not suggesting to you today that the U.S. to blame for what we're currently seeing in Ukraine and Crimea. 470 00:59:53,990 --> 01:00:00,860 But I think while constructive ambiguity might be needed in a few crisis situations, 471 01:00:01,820 --> 01:00:11,180 vagueness about where some process is going know for many years that the EU Ukraine relationship has been like. 472 01:00:11,180 --> 01:00:17,390 That also entails risks. Political events can capitalise on that. 473 01:00:17,750 --> 01:00:22,820 So I think without it obviously being part of the design of the vagueness that 474 01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:29,600 has surrounded both the EU's institutional set up of its commitment to Ukraine, 475 01:00:29,630 --> 01:00:40,670 the reasons for all those things y y that racism fair and also on the other hand, a lack of unified political will in Ukraine. 476 01:00:40,970 --> 01:00:46,250 So to pursue closer relations with the EU on the EU's terms, 477 01:00:46,250 --> 01:00:51,530 in terms of how it can structure relationships with a neighbouring country like your client. 478 01:00:52,400 --> 01:01:00,910 So what I want to put out there is that I think Western institutions, Western states, but also the EU is part of what we're seeing now. 479 01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:06,530 So it raises the process, raises expectations which may not actually be managed. 480 01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:11,330 It raises a whole range of different motivations and aspirations. 481 01:01:11,970 --> 01:01:17,180 Firstly, like you said, the protest in the Maidan was about something like European aspirations. 482 01:01:17,190 --> 01:01:23,670 That doesn't necessarily mean EU membership. For me and Ukrainian, that meant a whole range of expectations. 483 01:01:24,460 --> 01:01:27,310 One, it's easy to see why that be the case. Again, 484 01:01:27,770 --> 01:01:37,099 I think how the EU has also structured the relationship and for Ukraine has tried to say for the collective or not to collective on a particular line, 485 01:01:37,100 --> 01:01:47,290 this is just part of the story. So I think that should make us pause and also reflect on the consequences of the Western policies. 486 01:01:48,830 --> 01:01:50,030 On Ukraine briefly. 487 01:01:50,870 --> 01:01:58,570 I think that I pick up on something that Mr. Carney has already said, given Ukraine's history, given the regional diversity of this country, 488 01:01:58,700 --> 01:02:03,799 and the fact that this is a country that is for the first time in its foreign borders, 489 01:02:03,800 --> 01:02:09,470 putting together the Ukrainian state since 91, Ukraine has come quite a long way. 490 01:02:09,590 --> 01:02:16,490 And I think at the moment, we are mainly perceiving, obviously, a crisis of weaknesses. 491 01:02:17,270 --> 01:02:22,909 I we should see, for example, I see in other regions in the south and East as an imminent danger for that. 492 01:02:22,910 --> 01:02:29,240 For the whole country to look to the soul for. For Russia actively seeking to incorporate other parts of Ukraine. 493 01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:37,310 So I think the Ukrainian statement has evolved as it has become stronger than we might think at the moment. 494 01:02:37,910 --> 01:02:44,989 That doesn't mean that some situations can't be destabilised and it will take a while to even fall for the rest of it, 495 01:02:44,990 --> 01:02:49,010 playing out for the south and east to find a new political balance. 496 01:02:49,370 --> 01:02:53,720 But ultimately, I think we should not lose sight of how far Ukraine has come. 497 01:02:54,170 --> 01:03:01,670 And part of that success story, I would say, is also that a previous conflict in Crimea was avoided. 498 01:03:02,780 --> 01:03:06,080 And in the 1990s we might have almost forgotten about this now. 499 01:03:06,410 --> 01:03:14,239 But there were there was a real potential for conflict in Crimea along to further along different dimensions and into a regional conflict, 500 01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:20,870 a centre periphery conflict with Kiev, Russian-Ukrainian relations actually at the time and so on. 501 01:03:21,170 --> 01:03:26,690 And that was diffused by a combination of a very drawn out constitution making process, 502 01:03:26,690 --> 01:03:34,940 both at the national and regional level in Ukraine that enshrines equitably, politically entirely weak autonomy status for Crimea. 503 01:03:35,210 --> 01:03:41,660 But that process of engaging all the key actors at the time is perhaps something that we should look at again. 504 01:03:41,660 --> 01:03:49,640 And that whole process, I've view and a half have argued in mind we set up to conflict potential out of the situation. 505 01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:55,910 So that might be much more important than the final institutional fix and the final institutional outcome. 506 01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:01,210 A few thoughts on what we see at Raymond's arms. 507 01:04:01,550 --> 01:04:07,250 Adding perhaps to the figure is that Mr. Cross ask again for support for Ukraine independence. 508 01:04:07,490 --> 01:04:14,660 Just to also remind ourselves that in 91, 54% finance also voted in favour of Ukrainian independence. 509 01:04:14,930 --> 01:04:22,320 And that was without without the commentators being a political force in Crimea. 510 01:04:22,510 --> 01:04:26,180 The would have supported it, but they have thought up range of life in great numbers. 511 01:04:26,900 --> 01:04:32,870 So few things can move over time, but I think that's a figure that's probably important to to remember. 512 01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:44,689 Other things today were a lot less clear about. And if this referendum on Sunday could be a free and fair referendum and again academic speaking 513 01:04:44,690 --> 01:04:50,690 that interesting to actually see what the preferences of finance are to anyone wanting to see that. 514 01:04:50,690 --> 01:04:53,839 And the results can be easily manipulated by volume. 515 01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:57,080 And if you notice and you suggest already figures for the result, 516 01:04:58,390 --> 01:05:06,440 but it's not only a matter of how high the support will be and what kind of figure looks looks like may be credible. 517 01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:12,200 But if we look at we had a lot of other these days about the census figures of 2001. 518 01:05:12,530 --> 01:05:17,690 Oh, that's 58% for Russian ethnic Russians. And for me, about 24% of Ukrainians. 519 01:05:17,990 --> 01:05:25,310 And 12th, about 12% of them you talk this various divisions, with the exception of the commentators, 520 01:05:26,210 --> 01:05:34,400 don't really tell us all that much about what communists think about why Crimea's place is, first of all, self majority altogether. 521 01:05:34,660 --> 01:05:42,830 And also most of the Ukrainians are Russian speakers. They have not been politically mobilised in a particular way since the 1990s. 522 01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:52,669 Yes, there is a general cultural political sentiment, but that is not until very recent events very radically shifted. 523 01:05:52,670 --> 01:06:00,710 This translated into a coherent pro-Russia movement in Crimea that died very quickly in 1984, 524 01:06:00,950 --> 01:06:06,800 when in fact that movement also failed to address other concerns from the inside, in particular on the economy. 525 01:06:08,180 --> 01:06:14,700 So that, I think, is one one factor to keep in mind. There are by now obviously generational differences. 526 01:06:14,700 --> 01:06:21,680 So the younger generation in other parts of Ukraine has still not with the notion of being part of the Ukrainian side. 527 01:06:22,100 --> 01:06:27,290 You can be aware of many examples around the world becoming part of the state for us in a specific region, 528 01:06:27,290 --> 01:06:34,220 a specific a specific history perhaps needs to be treated differently in terms of the institutional up, 529 01:06:34,430 --> 01:06:42,709 but that doesn't mean that you go against the state. And I also think that many Ukrainians, Russians are different age groups. 530 01:06:42,710 --> 01:06:49,640 But again, past and present in particular, the younger generation knows how to distinguish between the messy but more or 531 01:06:49,640 --> 01:06:55,130 less democratic transition process in Ukraine that saw some extreme moments, 532 01:06:55,370 --> 01:06:58,489 but always most to correct that it's been messy. 533 01:06:58,490 --> 01:07:01,700 It's not pursued reforms as quickly and efficiently, 534 01:07:02,330 --> 01:07:06,500 but at the same time it has avoided some of the extremes on the transition process that Russia saw. 535 01:07:06,860 --> 01:07:12,620 And I think people also make a choice do we want to make the choice to have the chance to speak out what they want 536 01:07:12,620 --> 01:07:19,580 to join Putin's Russia today as a political system versus something that is still obviously be built in Ukraine? 537 01:07:19,910 --> 01:07:26,120 Unfortunately, we won't find out now. We are not sure whether you will ever find out what the what the real preferences are. 538 01:07:26,990 --> 01:07:35,540 But just to remind you that the person we currently see as a premier prime minister, his party was elected with 4% in the last regional elections. 539 01:07:36,230 --> 01:07:42,140 The terms speak of somebody in Crimea, some of these actually for the parliament officially opposing the constitution. 540 01:07:42,500 --> 01:07:50,090 He hasn't announced it for a while. I've seen nothing very recently under the umbrella of the party of Regional Reform. 541 01:07:50,090 --> 01:07:55,520 Just party concerns the reach in the heart pretty much of the rest. 542 01:07:56,660 --> 01:08:00,680 So I think at this point I want to point out we are beginning to hear a bit more about them, 543 01:08:00,690 --> 01:08:03,800 often struck by the media coverage of this in this country, 544 01:08:04,100 --> 01:08:09,120 how little attention has been on the economy and talk its way forward in the last week or so. 545 01:08:09,140 --> 01:08:14,840 But more about them, I think from one day all of a they will become the absolutely important and decisive factor in the region. 546 01:08:15,950 --> 01:08:25,980 12% of a small place is already quite something. They are united by the by memory of the deportation and of starting because a lot. 547 01:08:26,300 --> 01:08:30,870 Yes, exactly. They've also become more than 20% by now from 2000 to 13%. 548 01:08:30,870 --> 01:08:36,949 Also the younger generation, again, a higher proportion than also that they and they have acted and in particular when 549 01:08:36,950 --> 01:08:41,450 put under pressure as a much more unifying force and they are politically organised, 550 01:08:41,450 --> 01:08:44,450 they have the very well-organised political structures. 551 01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:54,230 So I think the key issue now will be there are attempts going on to to buy them off, to offer them economic support and political representation. 552 01:08:54,590 --> 01:09:04,690 But by definition, if you talk to us. Given that history will be sceptical of the long term nature of such promises and that will be put to a test. 553 01:09:04,840 --> 01:09:12,100 Here is how how united a group based on all that can come from are also different social, economic and political interests among them. 554 01:09:12,370 --> 01:09:17,440 And the control of the leadership may also not be in control of what certain groups do. 555 01:09:17,650 --> 01:09:24,970 There are more than twice clues to why the government has so far not been the most important strand of the fighting to talk up a movement as such. 556 01:09:25,180 --> 01:09:30,100 But that could very quickly change. 1.1 maybe I disagree slightly with you. 557 01:09:31,950 --> 01:09:37,290 I cannot believe that Russia has an interest in seriously destabilising the situation in Crimea itself. 558 01:09:37,300 --> 01:09:45,970 So I get a sense that there will be some break and see how the Crimean Tatars react because it would not only look bad if not this region, 559 01:09:46,750 --> 01:09:52,819 if violence kicks off in protest by some of the social violence or some sort of insurgency in Crimea, 560 01:09:52,820 --> 01:10:01,870 I think if they don't want us to to offer them something, to keep them quiet or even kickstarting a new migration route, among many others. 561 01:10:02,140 --> 01:10:04,090 So I think that is one of the factors. 562 01:10:04,690 --> 01:10:13,960 You can watch them, unfortunately, still watching as well, which leaves together with you just the first the meeting today with Senator Kerry. 563 01:10:14,590 --> 01:10:19,360 One thing that has come already on that is a certain timeline. 564 01:10:19,450 --> 01:10:22,749 But also, I think said, if I remember correctly, 565 01:10:22,750 --> 01:10:34,030 that Poland and Russia will not and will not incorporates Crimea is writing to the Russian Federation next week very quickly. 566 01:10:34,030 --> 01:10:44,920 It will be a gradual process. So again, I can be read as a as a window for a certain positive political process and maybe align with this the best. 567 01:10:45,730 --> 01:10:52,660 Any Western actor I can really hope for is that it becomes possible to move it also a political cost and 568 01:10:52,660 --> 01:10:57,640 probably that and that might be the lesson from the minorities in Crimea where the end result is open. 569 01:10:57,850 --> 01:11:04,570 So maybe the results were Crimea leaves Ukraine, but hopefully on a different on a different footing. 570 01:11:04,900 --> 01:11:08,110 And maybe there are other examples of our efforts. 571 01:11:08,800 --> 01:11:14,080 Think of a process that has different stages built into it and then choices at various points. 572 01:11:14,080 --> 01:11:18,549 And no, no, no site knows exactly what the choice will be, 573 01:11:18,550 --> 01:11:25,720 but they commit to this in principle and ultimately I think a lot of surveillance and explains part of why is the best 574 01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:35,110 escalation so quickly that Russia is reacting to the regional balance in Ukraine having been lost through the demonstrations. 575 01:11:35,710 --> 01:11:43,810 If we think of the EU proposed agreement on migration to later this summer to place, I think several times you used part of the years, 576 01:11:44,050 --> 01:11:49,630 but it's not that long and it was so quickly overtaken because we have talked about a national unity government, 577 01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:57,850 but that would have included representatives of the southern eastern regions or the party of regional or whoever I would have spoken for for that. 578 01:11:57,940 --> 01:12:05,470 That's clearly not what we've seen. So for both Russia as well as politically interesting in the east and south of Ukraine, 579 01:12:06,190 --> 01:12:10,299 looks as if the pendulum has swung far too much to one side and part of Ukraine. 580 01:12:10,300 --> 01:12:12,600 That's part of the problem of the your frustration, 581 01:12:13,360 --> 01:12:19,500 but also part of what has held Ukraine together across all these two to sort of those two sides of this. 582 01:12:19,510 --> 01:12:26,589 It's actually two simplifying both. But there are different regional forces that need to be represented in the same thing in Kiev. 583 01:12:26,590 --> 01:12:33,910 So the other quick thing I think Ukraine needs to do is not only move towards present things, but also parliamentary elections, 584 01:12:34,330 --> 01:12:41,140 probably especially from regional elections and forming a government because at the moment, also from a youth point of view to push ahead, 585 01:12:42,160 --> 01:12:47,950 which is, I think what has been agreed so far that part of the association agreement I need to try to bring that to for 586 01:12:47,950 --> 01:12:56,020 later and do that with an interim government seems not like a recipe but going from the suppression the that. 587 01:13:05,380 --> 01:13:12,850 They really like one word. I sent it up to a referendum, put you in this terrible situation, etc. 588 01:13:13,540 --> 01:13:20,140 And he studied the situation for years, hoped that for him will be very important to say, look, after referendum. 589 01:13:20,230 --> 01:13:24,790 Everything was okay. And even I can imagine if you give some money for some resistance, 590 01:13:24,790 --> 01:13:32,500 that someone would be necessary for infrastructure because all the supplies of water when you think are coming for you. 591 01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:44,350 So that's the end. But the real point for me to do with this, the decision of of the Ukrainian parliament to be a part of Russian Federation. 592 01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:51,460 And I expect that he will not decide that he's ready to accept, because it would be really the beginning of the Cold War, 593 01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:55,360 because then, given the space for some diplomatic and political manoeuvres, 594 01:13:55,400 --> 01:14:07,719 is better than that agreement that you have been developing time we thought here in a way that was applied in the really 595 01:14:07,720 --> 01:14:19,240 in the future to the meetings that the always the heads were out of recognising everybody but talking in the body, 596 01:14:19,250 --> 01:14:31,390 something that can be repeated to prevent to do something dramatic were the after in which really is no exit possible. 597 01:14:32,110 --> 01:14:38,160 And I think that would be a way that we play our cards well. 598 01:14:38,170 --> 01:14:56,340 There may be a way out. But again, if what Putin does want is to have with customs union, with the Ukrainians that is active in red, 599 01:14:56,350 --> 01:15:00,310 gone, being rejected from time to see how we can dismantle them. 600 01:15:01,450 --> 01:15:07,359 Presumably if if Putin has his eye on the long game, as you were suggesting, 601 01:15:07,360 --> 01:15:15,220 president and the option available to him is not to actually do anything dramatic after the referendum, 602 01:15:15,700 --> 01:15:22,600 but to treat Crimea like Charles in Eastern Europe, like South Ossetia. 603 01:15:23,230 --> 01:15:28,360 And you know, he'd like to ask the first question. 604 01:15:29,140 --> 01:15:32,950 Yeah, perhaps you can just say who you are. Andrew Thank you. 605 01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:40,710 Complete microphone. Come. It was one of her roles. 606 01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:47,750 So. I would actually like to ask you a question, Chancellor, if I may, but the other members of the panel might like to post a comment. 607 01:15:47,750 --> 01:15:54,050 I thought your account of your conversation with the Foreign Minister was very interesting. 608 01:15:55,100 --> 01:16:00,230 When you had to tell us a European vacation did not mean membership of the EU, 609 01:16:00,680 --> 01:16:06,290 and he told you that his meaning the Ukraine was being discriminated against as compared to Turkey? 610 01:16:07,160 --> 01:16:15,860 Well, I can say that the Turkish path has not proved to be exactly the event graves that you 611 01:16:15,890 --> 01:16:21,600 just said it's being made a candidate for having against nations formally opened. 612 01:16:21,630 --> 01:16:25,250 It doesn't guarantee a happy outcome, 613 01:16:25,550 --> 01:16:32,600 but I wonder if you meant to imply that it would have been a possible and be 614 01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:39,740 desirable for the EU to treat Ukraine at least on the same level as Turkey? 615 01:16:41,510 --> 01:16:45,140 At about the time that I had that meeting with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, 616 01:16:45,710 --> 01:16:54,110 the Commissioner for Enlargement and very capable Center-Left politician called into the hall. 617 01:16:54,120 --> 01:17:03,200 You made a speech in Ukraine saying get real and whatever else we offer you, we're not offering you membership of the European Union. 618 01:17:04,400 --> 01:17:13,729 I think that was a terrible mistake. I happen to be of the view that we should have been serious about Turkish membership of the 619 01:17:13,730 --> 01:17:19,790 European Union and that that might have have an effect on what Turkey is like at the moment. 620 01:17:20,840 --> 01:17:29,810 I think that we should be have been more serious about our relationship with Ukraine and very much agreed with the point that 621 01:17:30,230 --> 01:17:38,570 Professor Cessé made extremely diplomatically about the lack of clarity about what exactly it was that we were offering. 622 01:17:38,930 --> 01:17:42,140 And member states I mean, states around our borders. 623 01:17:42,380 --> 01:17:48,080 I'm not one of those who thinks that being opaque is always the best diplomacy. 624 01:17:49,200 --> 01:17:52,610 So my answer to your question will not be opaque. Yes. 625 01:17:53,090 --> 01:17:58,430 My answer to your question is, is I would have preferred the answer to both questions to have been yes. 626 01:18:00,530 --> 01:18:06,370 And I mean, you know, we know very well what is the meaning of the situation. 627 01:18:06,380 --> 01:18:17,730 Really, the situation that we have to offer we've got to do is not going to offer French recognition and therefore, universally, 628 01:18:17,750 --> 01:18:25,260 completely, maybe you look what you make an agreement in education agreement is for somebody we can help the door open. 629 01:18:25,290 --> 01:18:37,640 Remember a people want to be seen and to know that the youth can these guys and send them to these men's lives and they signed it today. 630 01:18:41,960 --> 01:18:43,250 Yes and yes and no, 631 01:18:43,260 --> 01:18:55,640 because I remember we were all signed The Situation Room in 91 and until we started to be in full force after 13 years of the situation, 632 01:18:55,650 --> 01:19:01,130 even for a lot of people on the street, means it's some day they can be under a photo of you. 633 01:19:01,310 --> 01:19:06,410 This is such a lateral thinking politically. It doesn't mean that you are not going to ever. 634 01:19:07,010 --> 01:19:20,299 And that format is not the reason. I think this is why you find that you know that you are one this time they will figure it out on the other. 635 01:19:20,300 --> 01:19:25,130 On the other hand, the position with Turkey is that we can offer the membership of the European Union, 636 01:19:25,280 --> 01:19:28,630 but they suspect that none of us really mean to. 637 01:19:32,050 --> 01:19:38,850 This is important point because, of course, why the reaction of the people in Kiev were so strong, 638 01:19:38,870 --> 01:19:44,060 why the you know, the world was speaking about the 500,000 others? 639 01:19:44,070 --> 01:19:52,920 Because 700,000 I heard with about 1 million people in Maidan and demonstrating in favour of European Union, European values. 640 01:19:52,920 --> 01:20:00,460 And so because of this before really the Europe, despite the association agreements, the free trade agreement, no difference. 641 01:20:00,480 --> 01:20:04,110 And this is really important thing. This is a value. 642 01:20:04,110 --> 01:20:06,630 This is something what what is the dream of of Ukraine? 643 01:20:07,120 --> 01:20:14,850 But then many, many years before Maidan, one of the Ukrainians, when Ukraine is they want to all the renovation off of the apartment. 644 01:20:15,180 --> 01:20:21,510 They have two types of innovation a question of of of of the fuels slowly the cars away to remove 645 01:20:21,600 --> 01:20:33,660 any other goods good renovation or euro and lose something bad is usual very much in Soviet style. 646 01:20:34,650 --> 01:20:39,540 So we were in relation with the final to have a flat like in Europe. 647 01:20:40,590 --> 01:20:47,579 This is something which is animating all these people living in Ukraine and the politically, diplomatically speaking, 648 01:20:47,580 --> 01:20:58,950 of course maybe or in my opinion that we didn't say during this long time of association agreement negotiations that finally after association, 649 01:20:58,950 --> 01:21:04,649 which is the first step after many, many years, after a lot of effort, after huge homework, 650 01:21:04,650 --> 01:21:11,330 which is necessary to make sure that one day Ukraine can be the fulcrum of European political influence. 651 01:21:11,680 --> 01:21:20,070 Let me I do not know. This is very real, but I'm describing what I think from the needs of Madam Chancellor Merkel. 652 01:21:20,520 --> 01:21:33,090 Not long ago we said the Ukrainians this membership and please notice this is this is and if I didn't say that we were like 653 01:21:33,900 --> 01:21:45,410 we were formally said to not know at this stage because I think that it is a disagreement and I don't disagree with you, 654 01:21:45,810 --> 01:21:51,240 but it is worth noting that when we first when negotiating with Austria, 655 01:21:51,630 --> 01:22:02,280 Sweden and Finland for membership of the European and for that relationship with the European Union, 656 01:22:02,550 --> 01:22:07,530 we were offering them, as it were, limited membership. 657 01:22:07,530 --> 01:22:11,340 We were offering them the opportunity of playing on weekdays, but not at weekends. 658 01:22:12,540 --> 01:22:17,459 And they threw that out of the plan, incredibly, understandably. 659 01:22:17,460 --> 01:22:23,310 And I think it's I think it's very difficult to come from the area of take to agree with you about the legality. 660 01:22:23,310 --> 01:22:27,630 And what they signed up to would be that the area between is quite. 661 01:22:29,100 --> 01:22:35,270 Marshy? Yes. Thank you, Chancellor. 662 01:22:35,540 --> 01:22:39,190 My name is Rami. I'm from Georgia, but I'm student here in Oxford. 663 01:22:39,200 --> 01:22:50,270 I'm public policy. So my question would be, a, what do people have heard me said about the energy policy and Russia's role within the energy policy? 664 01:22:50,480 --> 01:22:58,160 I think this is one of the main reasons why Russia is so keen to talk about Ukraine and have the pro-Russian 665 01:22:58,370 --> 01:23:04,430 leader in Ukraine always look historically because Ukraine is transport of Russian gas to rest of Europe. 666 01:23:05,300 --> 01:23:08,330 Do you think and I think my question goes to Mr. 667 01:23:08,330 --> 01:23:16,819 Mr. Solar. Do you think one of the main reasons why you always fight with Russia is change policy and the vagueness? 668 01:23:16,820 --> 01:23:22,610 And the professor has been talking about the vagueness of the policy of of EU talk towards Russia. 669 01:23:22,710 --> 01:23:41,600 Development is all about energy and gas is not the only but is very important in Germany that part of this gas is from the South, 670 01:23:41,600 --> 01:23:47,770 from the Rhine, from the north and we are still in bad winter with the grain. 671 01:23:48,920 --> 01:23:56,120 People of the north of Germany need to continue and they got from the roof of this house. 672 01:23:56,870 --> 01:24:11,989 But the end game is 60% of the coal exports of Russia, 30% on the fortune of the United States of the European Union, 673 01:24:11,990 --> 01:24:16,550 but only all the country from different group itself based on bad business. 674 01:24:17,510 --> 01:24:30,310 Got it from one from Russia, from the EU according to what is now being talk and isn't going to talk since the use of customers. 675 01:24:30,320 --> 01:24:41,600 I can say this and make this question now about how we can get to it at a very short notice. 676 01:24:41,870 --> 01:24:55,279 Then I think that to be able to put the sanctions on the past of the Great Recession and that is something this 677 01:24:55,280 --> 01:25:04,840 is being calculated and been studied and there is some possibility of rapid sign if things go wrong very fast. 678 01:25:07,020 --> 01:25:21,530 It is only 30% of our concern for Russia is a 60% in the next gentleman here and then gentleman yes, I want to but Robert service Russian Russian. 679 01:25:21,530 --> 01:25:28,040 So I want to put a question about how clever Putin is. 680 01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:33,499 And I was very taken by what President Wisniewski was saying. 681 01:25:33,500 --> 01:25:38,690 But I wonder if in the longer term, Putin is really quite so clever, 682 01:25:40,040 --> 01:25:48,830 if he if if if any of this instability in Kiev spreads to Moscow, he could be in big trouble. 683 01:25:50,750 --> 01:25:59,810 If he gets this customs union with Ukraine, it will be a non modernised, non diversify economy. 684 01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:05,840 And what sort of position is Russia ever going to have piece of the China and 685 01:26:05,840 --> 01:26:11,810 if the instability continues in this part of the world for very much longer, 686 01:26:12,110 --> 01:26:18,380 how long is it going to be before the North Caucasus, which was only conquered 150 years ago? 687 01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:26,080 I mean, let's think about how long the Irish think about my father was Irish. 688 01:26:28,080 --> 01:26:31,760 These visa. He's not so clever. 689 01:26:32,630 --> 01:26:42,000 I mean, I completely agree with you and I agree that the only possibility of Russia is in the East, 690 01:26:43,010 --> 01:26:46,730 its enemies and going to the borders and developing the borders. 691 01:26:46,930 --> 01:26:53,840 And the thing is that east, the Far East and demanded that we kind of we don't have the money to do it. 692 01:26:54,890 --> 01:26:59,180 So this is a risky battle for Russia in the medium term. 693 01:26:59,570 --> 01:27:04,330 And they may say, well, you are absolutely correct. 694 01:27:04,520 --> 01:27:06,110 I have been also much more clever. 695 01:27:06,110 --> 01:27:17,330 Politics would be modernisation of the Russia modernisation, not only the economy but all the nation to stay in the creation of civil society. 696 01:27:17,350 --> 01:27:22,670 A number and I think we could put in an amazing. Oh, I asked him about civil society democracy. 697 01:27:22,880 --> 01:27:26,840 His answer was no, this is impossible because we have no tradition of the school. 698 01:27:28,340 --> 01:27:32,500 And this is going to stop one day. There's no. 699 01:27:33,850 --> 01:27:35,860 He wasn't ready for it, I'm afraid. 700 01:27:36,310 --> 01:27:46,750 Putin is 14 years in power and his feeling today really is that I can do what I want and I don't care very much about this future for the next 20, 701 01:27:46,750 --> 01:27:55,480 30 years. I want to finish my legacy, which says that I will say one day to my countrymen, look, we are a superpower again. 702 01:27:55,710 --> 01:27:58,810 We go to fight. We are superpower. And this is his goal. 703 01:27:58,810 --> 01:28:04,750 And he organised for that many events since he the first elected world championship in soccer. 704 01:28:04,780 --> 01:28:07,780 The next event to be that we have all this. 705 01:28:08,230 --> 01:28:16,810 He didn't expect to this situation in Ukraine. He was sure that he's very close to the victories which we see on the part, 706 01:28:17,350 --> 01:28:21,610 of course, his and this is not only his, that is a nightmare of Lukashenko. 707 01:28:21,610 --> 01:28:31,420 This indictment of of it is, of course, made up because this type of reaction of the people, they don't like it, then they are very much afraid. 708 01:28:32,050 --> 01:28:41,670 But of course, as far as they will have for the idea that all this protest are organised by foreign forces, 709 01:28:42,110 --> 01:28:50,159 and then they will be mistaken again because one day it can happen and it means in Moscow or even maybe not in Iceland. 710 01:28:50,160 --> 01:29:00,160 Number one of the that's that's you saw possible 14 years in and the top of such country is the problem. 711 01:29:00,520 --> 01:29:06,219 Last point, you know, I was before my presidency, I was chairman of Constitutional Committee of National Assembly, 712 01:29:06,220 --> 01:29:09,930 which the party of Constitution of Poland and of the 97. 713 01:29:09,940 --> 01:29:14,950 And in this constitution, we have a rule about two terms of of president. 714 01:29:15,640 --> 01:29:19,060 If you step back to normal, the Polish president can be twice elected. 715 01:29:19,600 --> 01:29:28,030 And when I finished my second term, I had thought of a visit in Washington and my good friend George W asked me why we are so good guy. 716 01:29:28,060 --> 01:29:38,200 What idiot prepared such constitution in both of the world because this idiot is sitting. 717 01:29:41,080 --> 01:29:48,430 This is fantastic that the food that I can travel without problems, without sanctions, without the frozen comments. 718 01:29:50,680 --> 01:29:58,620 I think most of the states in the world, such as the West and this is but I never I never dreamt about you, a superpower. 719 01:29:58,630 --> 01:30:03,280 And that's something we should understand. 720 01:30:04,920 --> 01:30:12,680 Yeah. I'm not disappointed. 721 01:30:12,680 --> 01:30:16,570 You don't have a yard. Thank you. 722 01:30:19,130 --> 01:30:25,820 My question is about an element of this dreadful crisis, which I find really extraordinary hasn't been covered. 723 01:30:26,960 --> 01:30:32,360 And it's the evidence which finds itself really into the very unusual problem area. 724 01:30:32,840 --> 01:30:42,170 And that is because Putin has deployed his military in a way that in my four decades of military government service, 725 01:30:42,410 --> 01:30:53,900 I've never seen a free zone of deploying of force, only on foot, using the most fundamental element of your armed force no tanks, 726 01:30:54,470 --> 01:30:59,750 artillery, no drones, individual soldiers, but incredibly well, 727 01:30:59,840 --> 01:31:09,290 easily uniformly equipped in brand new police combat uniforms who were working through a very, 728 01:31:09,290 --> 01:31:14,990 very carefully controlled plan with excellent level of radiance, a personal level. 729 01:31:15,590 --> 01:31:17,300 I've never seen anything like it. 730 01:31:17,750 --> 01:31:29,540 Now, I believe Putin in this area was formed because he worked out that this is something which is impossible to counter in in in Crimea anyway. 731 01:31:30,290 --> 01:31:37,670 It is impossible for the Ukrainian military in Crimea to counter and it's impossible for anybody outside the country. 732 01:31:37,970 --> 01:31:46,640 And I believe he worked this out, although maybe it was deployed more or less spontaneously because we I'm afraid if we look at Georgia, 733 01:31:46,640 --> 01:31:55,460 he here a couple of years later that actually he planned the assaults a year and a half in advance. 734 01:31:55,850 --> 01:32:03,290 And I would like your opinion, first of all, on what I believe was an extremely effective military tactic, 735 01:32:03,500 --> 01:32:08,390 which has proved an absolute winner with impossible precedents in the future. 736 01:32:08,900 --> 01:32:13,970 And secondly, how could a stuntman do this, doing this again? 737 01:32:14,810 --> 01:32:21,070 Because it worked. Thank you. There are, as you know, 50,000 Russian waiters in London just waiting. 738 01:32:26,930 --> 01:32:32,120 I was waiting, was done with it. I don't have enough. You know, it was well done, unfortunately. 739 01:32:32,120 --> 01:32:41,629 And I think that is difficult. It would be difficult to repeat such a scenario in eastern Ukraine because the situation is different in Sevastopol. 740 01:32:41,630 --> 01:32:44,780 They have a base in eastern Ukraine now. Then of course, 741 01:32:45,680 --> 01:32:50,749 in Crimea it was possible to say because of the structure of the population that they are 742 01:32:50,750 --> 01:32:57,560 not the Russian sort of self defence units well equipped in some shops in Simferopol are. 743 01:33:00,740 --> 01:33:09,870 It is, of course, impossible to do anything. And don't let go of your book, especially because you know this in this place, as you've read, 744 01:33:09,870 --> 01:33:15,950 it has much more audience at the end today, especially after Crimea and the experience there. 745 01:33:16,070 --> 01:33:20,059 But the professional and the self defence concept was, I think, 746 01:33:20,060 --> 01:33:28,050 such political very of to say and especial also beauty of this self-defence that people 747 01:33:28,430 --> 01:33:35,690 made up that was a little bit polemic from his side for this content of self-defence. 748 01:33:36,530 --> 01:33:41,969 Yes. Yes, that's great. I think that's also a source of optimism as well, 749 01:33:41,970 --> 01:33:50,890 that this is not a scenario from how maybe the response plans of someone else and gender knocks on the door. 750 01:33:50,900 --> 01:33:56,120 We have not heard enough from a woman yet. Yes, there's one hit the woman with her left arm. 751 01:34:01,280 --> 01:34:11,930 So I put a short comment on a short question, I'm quite sure, because it's often criticised that the pendulum swung too far. 752 01:34:12,140 --> 01:34:17,660 I think it's still worth remembering that in that time, which was very remote, 753 01:34:17,660 --> 01:34:21,920 the head of the population said that we would refuse, actually participate in the new government. 754 01:34:22,760 --> 01:34:28,350 But at the same time there are two factions that form from the remnants of the all parties in the voting 755 01:34:28,500 --> 01:34:36,470 coalition and also that was the court appointed with the highest number of votes from parliament in Ukraine. 756 01:34:37,370 --> 01:34:42,859 This was a legitimate secret interim government. Actually, it's pretty, pretty high. 757 01:34:42,860 --> 01:34:49,160 But I believe there should be fresh parliamentary elections. My question is more about events yesterday in Vienna, 758 01:34:49,870 --> 01:34:59,780 the arrest and I really to the panel's opinion on how that fits in to what's unfolding here and how far it's connected or not. 759 01:35:00,230 --> 01:35:11,590 I think some of us hope the next gesture will be the closing down of Chelsea Football Club, but that is not the answer. 760 01:35:11,720 --> 01:35:17,270 Look, there's difficult with Gaza because we were surprised also by this information. 761 01:35:17,630 --> 01:35:28,280 And what I read that means that the free press is arrested long because of this last week in the theatre of events about something from the year 2008. 762 01:35:28,700 --> 01:35:32,020 And it is the iron issue is out of. 763 01:35:33,110 --> 01:35:39,379 Well I think that the oligarchs demand speaking to they are very difficult situation some of 764 01:35:39,380 --> 01:35:45,850 them which we are not close to or to do we have a problem do not expect to step into a room, 765 01:35:46,310 --> 01:35:52,799 for example. They are they can be relaxed because they are doing good on the job. 766 01:35:52,800 --> 01:35:57,710 They tend to they have, of course, the problems with the Russian market, etc. but this is different. 767 01:35:57,950 --> 01:36:03,290 But some people call it three plus one was one of the closest supporters of the young. 768 01:36:03,610 --> 01:36:10,129 I have met them. Yeah, they of course they left some problems with new government, but in my opinion, 769 01:36:10,130 --> 01:36:15,650 the main fear for oligarchs today is that the next stage of this revolution in Kiev, 770 01:36:15,650 --> 01:36:27,379 in Ukraine will be really not now against the politician because it's happened, but against rich people because of this social situation in Ukraine. 771 01:36:27,380 --> 01:36:31,010 I think there's a huge differences between rich and poor people. 772 01:36:31,170 --> 01:36:36,190 This is a source of wealth. A lot of persons that is going to be the real problem for let's face. 773 01:36:38,740 --> 01:36:43,060 According I think, to the morning's Financial Times, it must be true. 774 01:36:43,720 --> 01:36:50,950 The oligarch we mentioned is represented in this country by the grandson of a former prime minister, 775 01:36:50,950 --> 01:36:59,070 Lord Oxford, and he was also a former member of The Friends. 776 01:36:59,080 --> 01:37:07,059 And I think do we think if I were to come back to a crucial point made by Clinton presidency, 777 01:37:07,060 --> 01:37:13,719 which I would reformulate your comment as follows The crucial struggle that begins 778 01:37:13,720 --> 01:37:17,890 the day after the Crimea referendum on Sunday is not the struggle for Crimea. 779 01:37:18,280 --> 01:37:25,849 It is a struggle for Eastern Ukraine, where 90% of the Western media coverage would be about Crimea, Russia and the West sanctions new Cold War. 780 01:37:25,850 --> 01:37:31,180 And of course, that would be happening, as Ben Foster reminded us, that the crucial struggle is eastern Ukraine. 781 01:37:31,720 --> 01:37:36,220 Will there actually still be elections on the 25th of May? 782 01:37:36,220 --> 01:37:42,130 Will lose elections happening across the country. Will eastern Ukraine be part of a national political process? 783 01:37:42,370 --> 01:37:48,070 If yes, then not only is the independence of the rest of Ukraine secured, 784 01:37:48,640 --> 01:37:55,660 but Ukraine is back on a unambiguously constitutional democratic track with the at the moment. 785 01:37:55,960 --> 01:38:05,620 So my question to all is what should the politicians and actors on the ground do to make sure that that comes about, 786 01:38:05,620 --> 01:38:12,610 that the elections go ahead and Ukraine is part of them and what we do in the West to help them in that. 787 01:38:14,330 --> 01:38:21,940 Well, I think you have the 25th of May would be absolutely crucial date. 788 01:38:21,940 --> 01:38:33,790 And I hope that because one of the elements we got going, I think, about Lavrov, Senator Kerry talks about the information is that nothing is missing. 789 01:38:33,790 --> 01:38:34,520 What is it for? 790 01:38:35,560 --> 01:38:48,700 I mean, the Globe said during a press conference for Russia today they they stay with their own position and they do not agree with the Americans. 791 01:38:49,150 --> 01:38:56,040 So there'll be no conclusions going to come off as it was impossible to predict such result. 792 01:38:56,430 --> 01:39:04,360 So I think them is and I hope that the change of the day, the postponement of election is not an element of the deal, 793 01:39:04,510 --> 01:39:11,860 because it would be mistake, it might have been, you know, to wait longer for some constitutional stability, 794 01:39:12,610 --> 01:39:20,439 because having the president and having such a very special kind of government and the old style in the parliament, 795 01:39:20,440 --> 01:39:26,090 this is what I think this president elect the 25th will see who will be elected. 796 01:39:26,140 --> 01:39:34,450 This is the next point of this. My advice for leading politicians in Ukraine will be not to make this campaign very tough. 797 01:39:34,450 --> 01:39:38,359 It's not to fight each other so much as we know from the history. 798 01:39:38,360 --> 01:39:43,410 It's us, neither of which would be quite possible like that. 799 01:39:43,990 --> 01:39:48,219 And of course the is very important to have the election that we to have these elections 800 01:39:48,220 --> 01:39:52,840 well organised with a lot of international observers and in eastern part of of, 801 01:39:52,930 --> 01:40:03,040 of Ukraine. And of course the main problem is how to eliminate all these possible occupational acts of violence from, from various sides. 802 01:40:03,040 --> 01:40:12,009 Because all those people about themselves, the Russians have enough the groups in Ukraine which are interested in the violence. 803 01:40:12,010 --> 01:40:17,680 Also today, for example, I was informed before this meeting with two persons who were killed in Banyas 804 01:40:17,680 --> 01:40:23,890 through some devastation between the pro-Russians and pro-Ukrainian groups. 805 01:40:24,280 --> 01:40:30,400 So if you have more and more such such a situation, you do that. 806 01:40:30,940 --> 01:40:34,220 And then of course what today the Ukrainian government can do. 807 01:40:34,240 --> 01:40:44,290 I think the most important is to to start very active politics towards eastern part of Ukraine because, you know, two or three days ago, 808 01:40:44,650 --> 01:40:49,960 it was information that one of the former government of how to keep looking 809 01:40:50,470 --> 01:40:55,420 was the rest how who wants to be this pro-Russian candidate in the election? 810 01:40:55,930 --> 01:41:02,750 Now, I don't he's not the hero of my story, as I mentioned, because this would have to do with the the day. 811 01:41:03,100 --> 01:41:13,690 But I think for me, it's it's mistake if if in in eastern Ukraine this feeling that really the country's split and we have 812 01:41:13,690 --> 01:41:19,980 no chances for the dialogue will increase and this action of of of arrest this is something that, 813 01:41:19,990 --> 01:41:26,540 in my opinion, would be good to have warned the Russian government in this election would be much better not only to have people, 814 01:41:26,560 --> 01:41:34,150 candidates for Maidan in such nice, very comfortable situation who would be okay with just this is wrong. 815 01:41:34,510 --> 01:41:42,120 So I think this throughout Eastern. Yes. America is a very clever man, and I think you understand the situation very well. 816 01:41:42,420 --> 01:41:46,740 And he's absolutely able to make some gesture to towards instant. 817 01:41:46,980 --> 01:41:54,460 And that is necessary one day to go so necessary for these guys, one day to go physically to the be appropriate to ask him to organise. 818 01:41:54,990 --> 01:42:01,460 The only one who has enough courage is to do it was to stop the party for two days. 819 01:42:02,490 --> 01:42:05,700 Well, what is it for? For the European Union? 820 01:42:05,700 --> 01:42:11,589 Important in Rome? I couldn't I couldn't say again. But the first idea is not the end of the story. 821 01:42:11,590 --> 01:42:17,730 It is the presumption beginning because we have visited situation Crimea. 822 01:42:18,000 --> 01:42:25,889 And my feeling is necessary to expect this and the continuation of destabilisation of eastern part 823 01:42:25,890 --> 01:42:32,520 of of without military forces because the Russia doesn't need military forces in this place. 824 01:42:33,030 --> 01:42:36,149 They have enough organised group, they have enough support. 825 01:42:36,150 --> 01:42:43,770 There is not, in my opinion, to win, which is not. You shouldn't speak about millions, but, you know, thousands and those who speak. 826 01:42:44,130 --> 01:42:53,820 And this is enough to destabilise the situation. And of course, we should say openly that the Crimea is is is a problem. 827 01:42:54,060 --> 01:42:59,549 And Russia can you know, we have noticed very, very few new districts of de-escalation. 828 01:42:59,550 --> 01:43:03,030 So we expect not escalation, but some kind of de-escalation. 829 01:43:03,330 --> 01:43:05,490 It is necessary to use some some instruments. 830 01:43:05,880 --> 01:43:14,340 The main problem for you is how to describe how to define what kind of instruments we can use and for what kind of instrument we can have consensus. 831 01:43:15,090 --> 01:43:18,300 Because here we have. The problem. 832 01:43:18,320 --> 01:43:25,090 MacLeod From the moment I spoke about this kind of courage, 833 01:43:25,090 --> 01:43:31,390 I think here at this point to entertain thoughts about some ideas of decentralisation and centralisation, 834 01:43:31,840 --> 01:43:34,960 whatever you want to call it, and you don't want to use the word said, it was my way. 835 01:43:35,320 --> 01:43:39,490 I think that would be a very clever strategy at this point, because it could actually ultimately, 836 01:43:39,760 --> 01:43:46,100 although a lot of people inside and outside the party would not like to have said this will say a lot of things so that it could I wanted to, 837 01:43:46,120 --> 01:43:50,430 I think, strengthen Ukraine internally and also protect it from further Russian intervention. 838 01:43:51,490 --> 01:43:53,980 I would hope, following what you said, President, 839 01:43:54,340 --> 01:44:00,969 that there are already plans in place for deploying an EU monitoring mission and with some the very distinguished 840 01:44:00,970 --> 01:44:07,330 figure and really I think the president or Pat Cox or somebody who already knows all about Ukraine. 841 01:44:09,680 --> 01:44:17,890 Ellen Darren Duff it may well be true that Putin has a long term plan. 842 01:44:19,060 --> 01:44:24,220 Great Russia again. And you disagree. 843 01:44:24,940 --> 01:44:33,040 But we've only heard about Russia as Putin, his offensive intentions. 844 01:44:33,790 --> 01:44:38,680 Is it inconceivable that there's also a defensive element? 845 01:44:39,130 --> 01:44:42,970 My question is to Mr. Solana. I prefer broker. 846 01:44:42,970 --> 01:44:53,240 As NATO's meeting in 2008, there was a declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would become members of NATO. 847 01:44:53,800 --> 01:45:01,010 Now, the Russians took that seriously. I've read that this wasn't taken seriously by NATO. 848 01:45:01,060 --> 01:45:11,080 It was just to make George Bush happy, if it were true or was that he didn't want to be close to the truth. 849 01:45:14,800 --> 01:45:19,840 I happened to be in that lunch. I was not. 850 01:45:20,230 --> 01:45:25,840 I had nothing to do with nature. But I haven't seen a little bit of the vibe. 851 01:45:26,950 --> 01:45:30,720 And it was very clear that nobody wanted to make that mistake. 852 01:45:30,850 --> 01:45:35,950 In fact, in my view, the continuation of that would never do that. 853 01:45:36,190 --> 01:45:49,400 Then there was met. And after that, until the battle of Georgia, I think that nobody wanted to and minority didn't want that decision to take. 854 01:45:51,250 --> 01:45:59,530 Well, I think the native membership today is not the topic and for the Ukrainians in today's government. 855 01:46:00,400 --> 01:46:04,490 They are not interested in this because they, first of all, did that. 856 01:46:04,490 --> 01:46:07,780 The people there are not very much in favour of it. 857 01:46:08,230 --> 01:46:15,850 You know, the figure is better. But my feeling is that today for European unity, we have about 50% in favour. 858 01:46:15,880 --> 01:46:22,880 We have 10% against that, 90% who are looking forward for something and permit. 859 01:46:23,020 --> 01:46:26,230 I think we have more and more 30% in favour. 860 01:46:26,810 --> 01:46:29,950 So I think the nature is that is not the point. 861 01:46:30,340 --> 01:46:35,980 Now, you said if Russia tries to explain all this action because they are afraid that you could 862 01:46:36,220 --> 01:46:42,020 be the next the last a member of NATO's that is not very well received from Bucharest. 863 01:46:42,040 --> 01:46:46,389 I remember also quite well the statement of the sentence of Mr. Putin, 864 01:46:46,390 --> 01:46:51,910 and this is very sentence because in Bucharest he said that for Ukraine's artificial state. 865 01:46:53,820 --> 01:46:55,300 And that's, 866 01:46:55,330 --> 01:47:08,650 I think means this means that it is difficult to accept the independence of Ukraine if you've seen or you treat this country as artificial. 867 01:47:10,290 --> 01:47:21,320 Last question. My name is Keith Mack, and I'm a lawyer who for many years worked in Central Europe and in Ukraine. 868 01:47:23,380 --> 01:47:34,510 One important element, I think, in creating an independent Ukraine is the involvement of the oligarchs. 869 01:47:35,500 --> 01:47:39,460 You mentioned how wealthy they are. 870 01:47:39,670 --> 01:47:46,720 There's about ten or 12 people who basically control the whole of the economy in Ukraine. 871 01:47:49,550 --> 01:47:54,980 Nearly all of those people are actively involved in in politics. 872 01:47:56,100 --> 01:47:59,640 Nearly all of them finance political parties. 873 01:48:00,090 --> 01:48:09,210 There really isn't any political force that is independent of these ten, 12 individuals. 874 01:48:10,620 --> 01:48:16,050 Some of those individuals are naturally aligned with Russia. 875 01:48:16,940 --> 01:48:22,460 Perhaps not for conviction, but for economic reasons. 876 01:48:23,150 --> 01:48:30,200 The others may be leaning towards what we've got in all the West. 877 01:48:30,830 --> 01:48:35,540 The one thing's for sure is that they've been fighting each other since. 878 01:48:36,540 --> 01:48:41,850 Today Ukraine was established and they're fighting each other right now. 879 01:48:43,080 --> 01:48:55,860 And after each election in Ukraine, a new corrupt kleptocracy steps into power. 880 01:48:56,280 --> 01:49:03,330 And one of the things they do, apart from enrich themselves, is actually punish the opponents. 881 01:49:03,540 --> 01:49:09,310 So you have a very atomised society, ongoing conflict. 882 01:49:09,440 --> 01:49:14,310 The problem here is that you've got very rich and powerful men in a conflict. 883 01:49:15,180 --> 01:49:27,509 And I think part of what the international institutions need to do now is to recognise that there will be no person to negotiate any 884 01:49:27,510 --> 01:49:41,430 treaty with or have any meaningful post election state or withdrawal of political institutions unless these people voluntarily. 885 01:49:43,400 --> 01:49:56,060 Disengage from politics and turn it into some sort of concord amongst each other whereby they they recognise that they'd done well, 886 01:49:56,780 --> 01:50:07,820 that vastly wealthy, but they can't continue in the way they have because it's effectively like dealing with barons in the Middle Ages, 887 01:50:08,300 --> 01:50:18,620 but they have to voluntarily step back the way of forcing these people to do it and the benefits will come down the line. 888 01:50:20,360 --> 01:50:29,990 Every chance of having a strong economy and not economy will afford those rich men many further riches going forward. 889 01:50:30,440 --> 01:50:35,870 I cannot. But without that, I don't think it's going to change all this. 890 01:50:36,170 --> 01:50:49,700 This is a great topic. It probably will invite us again to discuss this this problem, because I agree with the structure of Ukraine. 891 01:50:49,700 --> 01:50:55,760 This combination of of money and politics, oligarchs in power is very dangerous. 892 01:50:56,810 --> 01:51:02,120 This is the problem of all old post-Soviet states. 893 01:51:02,540 --> 01:51:09,320 This is the same system we have. Of course, the differences that they start the same centuries in Russia. 894 01:51:10,460 --> 01:51:15,340 I hope that we are close to this situation, like what you described, 895 01:51:15,370 --> 01:51:24,900 that they are ready voluntarily to limit own power and only influence because they are very sure that everything will happen. 896 01:51:24,920 --> 01:51:31,850 This was a shock. And before you know, because I met all of them when we discussed the Situation Room, 897 01:51:32,270 --> 01:51:38,810 majority of them usually very condemned, were very much in favour of association and European Union and all the things. 898 01:51:39,320 --> 01:51:47,420 And I asked them metaphors of why we are so much poorer for all this, because he understood finally, after 20 years of, 899 01:51:47,480 --> 01:51:58,580 let's say, one of the capitals, that he needs rules of law, he needs the security for own money, for own property, for own life. 900 01:51:58,580 --> 01:52:02,840 For him. He needs to continue to be a more normal business. 901 01:52:03,290 --> 01:52:07,040 People will move on with their world because it enough needs. 902 01:52:07,880 --> 01:52:13,580 And then now it seems to be more longer as he was in the last 20 years. 903 01:52:14,510 --> 01:52:20,180 Of course, he's much more popular. I know he does because he decided to buy Russia from women. 904 01:52:20,180 --> 01:52:26,330 It's not so healthy with civil society. 905 01:52:26,960 --> 01:52:37,040 And so I think now they are close to understand they need rules of law, they need the change of this situation inside. 906 01:52:37,550 --> 01:52:42,320 They and they are ready more and more to limit opposition. 907 01:52:42,320 --> 01:52:52,280 But still, they have a lot of details. The first one, frankly speaking, I don't understand maybe this issue with some deeper background to make sense, 908 01:52:52,550 --> 01:52:58,030 but to propose for two oligarchs that to be new governor of Donetsk and to call 909 01:52:58,040 --> 01:53:03,910 voice for the new governor of this is something quote is absolutely against 17 910 01:53:03,920 --> 01:53:08,870 what you said because it means again that we have this combination of of money 911 01:53:08,870 --> 01:53:12,979 of all you have for political if Washington will be elected as a new president, 912 01:53:12,980 --> 01:53:21,890 if he's a new task can be that good. We haven't the real oligarchs but it might a sweet or you are to see the problem. 913 01:53:22,370 --> 01:53:34,400 I think without the set of control service from both sides, politicians and oligarchs and to its good new constitution, 914 01:53:34,610 --> 01:53:41,210 which is absolutely important and with such understanding that after the second Maidan, 915 01:53:41,570 --> 01:53:49,690 it certainly will be disaster for them because first time is okay, second time is then the third time is disaster. 916 01:53:50,270 --> 01:53:56,470 You cannot repeat the same stage during 20 years because then of course it is new because of this. 917 01:53:57,290 --> 01:54:01,130 So hopefully we have a chance for that. But this is very, very difficult. 918 01:54:01,840 --> 01:54:09,370 And and I think with a lot of ups and downs, a lot of of of of terrorism, this this. 919 01:54:10,700 --> 01:54:18,380 Probably to some quite some o'clock if you ask a really telling dramatic question, you've been asking him about the question. 920 01:54:18,420 --> 01:54:22,040 Okay. So just very short, very interesting question. 921 01:54:22,040 --> 01:54:25,700 I wrote the originally from Moscow, a Russian. 922 01:54:26,510 --> 01:54:30,500 You know what I want to say first? Oh, no, no question. 923 01:54:30,620 --> 01:54:37,099 Okay. I just thought. It's not only Putin, by the way, not only Putin, you'll be surprised within the volume, 924 01:54:37,100 --> 01:54:42,860 those of people who are in the position in Russia, they're not commenting because those are very neutral. 925 01:54:42,860 --> 01:54:44,150 So it's important to understand, 926 01:54:44,300 --> 01:54:50,540 for some reason there is a consumption within Russian elites that what Putin is doing is possibly right, but it's up for discussion. 927 01:54:50,960 --> 01:54:54,830 And that was the question. I am from the city I studied here. 928 01:54:54,830 --> 01:55:01,950 Did you feel I saw a lot of research recently, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Goldman Sachs, American banks, which are saying why Russia, 929 01:55:02,330 --> 01:55:07,100 especially the next week or the week after, were Russian shares because everything cheap since like next, of course. 930 01:55:07,380 --> 01:55:10,910 So Crimea was difficult. It's not, of course, relax. 931 01:55:10,910 --> 01:55:16,220 There'll be some sanctions. Someone who lose their property in Chelsea with nothing else, do it. 932 01:55:16,520 --> 01:55:17,500 So do you agree with that? 933 01:55:17,530 --> 01:55:24,940 I think that you know this so present scenario and target the sanctions on look actually what we are talking about that there 934 01:55:24,950 --> 01:55:31,790 will be acceleration of the speech and it opens up a new sort of economic standoff with very serious implications for Moscow. 935 01:55:32,060 --> 01:55:40,430 What's your first impression about how to handle this is what you think? 936 01:55:43,790 --> 01:55:53,920 Well, I wouldn't bet. You know, I think the Goldman Sachs I. 937 01:55:54,110 --> 01:55:59,370 I think this is a beginning. This is not the first time. 938 01:56:00,980 --> 01:56:08,300 Okay. And can I I think that was even better than I'd hoped it was going to be. 939 01:56:08,510 --> 01:56:12,470 And I think the panel were absolutely terrific. 940 01:56:13,520 --> 01:56:21,560 That was a wow factor Oxford event. And I'd like you all to express your gratitude in the customary way. 941 01:56:21,890 --> 01:56:44,590 Not with a crouching, but with a standing of it. Through it.