So it's really, really a great pleasure for me to introduce our speaker to say Professor Murray Luddy, a full body,
was the professor of demography and social sciences and the director of research at the National Centre for Scientific Research Centres in Paris.
She also is a member of the Centre for Turkish, Ottoman, Balkan and Central Asian Studies.
Settle back. That's which she has joined since 2001 19.
The main focus of Professor Laddies research is on relations, the relationship between demographic changes and socio political transformations,
using that as a lens to look at other changes which are taking place in the society and.
One of the main areas of her research has been on women and young people as agents of change,
political change in Iran, which is she's going to present part of that research today to us.
And I'm delighted to say that this is about basically the Iranian population policies, that the state's population policies in Iran,
which had very successfully managed to bring down population growth back in the 80s and 90s,
and now they have turned the clock back on or adopting a pro nativist policy.
So a marriage is going to talk to us today about how the new policies are going to affect women's rights in Iraq.
And she has published extensively in the airport list of publications is too long for me, a visit to the Internet.
We'll show you what she has been working on over the years.
But she recently had a book published on the island called Puplick Islamic Dulong Voodoo Land Tavio, which was published in 2020.
Can you show the book, please? It is in French. And it kind of looks lovely.
And one of her latest articles in the Journal of Iranian Studies has been The
Islamic Republic of Iran's New Population Policy and Recent Changes in Fertility,
which was published in March twenty twenty one. So my daughter, further ado, I am.
And please do remember to mute your camera as everybody.
You can send your questions, write them and send them to me at the end of the talk and we will raise your questions, which many will answer.
Thank you very much, Mary. Thank you very much.
Sorry for this introduction. Before starting, I'd like to thank you for the invitation.
I'm really very pleased to contribute the talk to this research seminar.
So in my email to Twitter, put me at 14 on the pretext of the threat of an ageing population due to birth control and the drop in fertility.
The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, drew up a strategic programme in the Fortune article they created called Population Control Policies.
It did. It is the matter of deploying all means possible to reverse Canada's infertility and
especially to reach a target population of one hundred and fifty million people.
The first question is whether this Neil population policy justified.
Is Iran on the brink of widespread ageing? And the number he called declined the analysis of the demographic situation and of population.
Perspective provides some clear answers.
Over the past two decades, the age structure of the Iranian population has changed significantly as a result of very rapid fertility transition.
According to the 20 see, a 16th census out of 18 million inhabitants, only 24 percent were under fifteen.
While the proportion of the working age population, age 50 to 64, reached a very high percentage of 70 percent.
Those 65 and all, they're represented only six percent of the total population.
That's the ratio the ratio of economically active population to economically inactive population was at a crucial moment of demographic change.
This demographic window or gift thus offers an exceptional historic opportunity.
To encourage economic growth. Provided that the states succeed in creating a favour.
Well, in I want a moment. For job recovery.
But the Islamic Republic was wasting its active population potential.
And instead of recommending the establishment of even primaries, it proved Missouri policies.
Conducive to taking advantage of this demographic opportunity to sell property there has chosen to highlight the ageing of the population.
And of course, this an imminent ageing of the population is real, it is real and will.
We'll see. This situation demands the urgent implementation of social social convert.
For the elderly, for instance, retirement, perks, pension, all age insurance and Special K.
In no way this population policy will constitute an adequate response to the current ageing of the population,
according the U.S. population projection, in 2050,
Iran reached one hundred and three million inhabitants remain one of the most populous countries in the war between 78 and 19 place at this date,
20 50. Nearly a quarter of the population will be 65 or older, but the share of working age population will still be the largest at 60 percent.
These contests, that data show that in the foreseeable future,
Iran will certainly not be trying to beat decline their population or Danish generational.
No real new. This conflict.
Hypothesis that the new population policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, initiated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and confirmed by the supreme leader.
Response foremost to political and ideological considerations.
So what does these concentration pristinely?
There are 14 article that decree called General Population Policies are drawn up in a key word,
quote, term, which may give rise to different applications depending on the context.
For example, the target of reaching a population of one hundred and fifteen million is not specifically state.
But the first article stipulates that it is necessary to promote the dynamic growth and youthfulness of the population.
Why an increase in fertility which should be above the replacement threshold without space?
It is specifying the level of fertility target.
According to certain policymakers, the figure is trade children.
Why? For others, it is five to six children.
Article two, amongst others, insist on the need to remove obstacles to reducing age at marriage.
Yet no practical indications are given. Several of the decrease in article refer to the need to cover the cost associated
with pregnancy and maternity for infertility treatment for men and women,
and for nutrition and health needs, too,
including lessons in public schooling about funding families and the merits of so doing and so on and so forth.
All six articles seems to focus on demographic considerations.
Six others reveal the ideological turner after recommendations.
First one, promoting and institutionalising the Islamic and Iranian way of life to counter undesirable aspects of Western life,
sex, to be enforcing the competence and the competence of national identity, which are Iranian, Islamic and revolutionary.
Three, creating new settlement zones, particularly in the island along the coast of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman for managing.
Immigration and immigration in concert with general population policies, five, promoting consensus and social integration.
Across the territory, in particular, in the border zones, in the mark, Iranian expatriates.
And finally,
six encouraging Iranian expatriates to return and invest in the country and thereby benefit from the possibilities and capabilities in it,
being well aware that the predominant family model in Iran is no is to marry late and have a small nuclear family.
The Islamic Republic's policy makers also know that the prospect of reaching a target
population of one hundred and fifty million Iranians in the new in the near future is utopian.
This, to my mind, is what the decree never explicitly mentioned, this target.
Why, no, the hinting at the IDF people in the entire territory, by means other than rising Iranian fertility rate.
The first man could be expectorate Iranians, as mentioned in Article twelve of the decree.
Ever given that the majority of this expatriate Iranians oppose the Islamic regime,
assuming they are they agree to return to Iran, they might instead end up causing political unrest for the regime.
This is why it is unlikely that this policy will be a priority of the regime.
Why mention is made of managing immigration and immigration in compliance with
general population policies without any practical indication on this matter.
It mate, it may be supposed that the Islamic Republic could envisage, including greeting the Iranian population,
the couple of million Afghans living in Iran as refugees and or as undocumented migrant.
Especially as since 2014. Afghans enlisted by the Revolutionary Guards are wrong as militiamen called for two million to fight
alongside the Syrian army have received Iranian industrial morality for themselves and their family.
So it is very likely that by Iran and expatriates, the government.
I mean, Slavic Republic of Iran referred to these Afghans recently.
Naturaliste. This mess policy of taking in migrants and integrating them may also concern Shiite militia recruited by their pastor in Pakistan.
Called They Love You and fighting alongside the Revolutionary Guards in Syria.
This practise by the pastor, Ron, seems fairly close to the spirit of the twenty fourteen decree and suggest
that where that where immigrant population included in the Iranian population,
that prime benefits years would be Shiite.
Furthermore, these recommendations are for border zones.
That's very fair pay for all regions.
People up need by Souness.
In so far as this soon, particularly those boarding Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east and Iraq and Turkey to the west seem per porous with intense,
regular, two way secret circulation of populations from the same ethnic,
linguistic and religious group, the state appears determined to kerb these flows.
In light of this Article 13 of the decree, which calls to reinforce the competence of Iranian Islamic Andrew Woloshin,
that a national identity and promote consensus and social integration across the territory,
in particular in the waters and amongst Iranian expatriates, takes on its full meaning.
The objective is, above all, to provide Iran with a large population,
but additionally one who adders to the values of the Islamic Republic defined as the components national identity.
It is most likely that the Islamic Republic follows this path.
And for these reasons, the new population policy of the Islamic Republic may be defined as population ist.
Does the actual yet concealed objective of the new population policy of the Islamic Republic is in reality to boost population growth,
to reach one hundred and fifty million inhabitants with an Iran of one million, 50 million inhabitants?
Right to call the state hopes to cure a demographic weapon to exert influence in the region.
It would indeed be destress if we open.
That would be crucial for regime engaged in this protocol dispute with the immediate neighbours and with the West.
And one can fail, not can.
And one cannot fail to note it.
Coherence between this population is the direction and Iran's ambition, too.
Ambitions for regional hegemony. Excuse me.
Because exactly of this ideological and political objective.
I must emphasise that the Islamic Republic took some incentive Culver City and aggressive to an
aggressive measures in order to accelerate the process of reversing the downward trend in fertility.
It goes without saying that these measures were taken in violation of women's right.
And, of course, their reproductive rights.
In other words, to achieve this new population policy.
The Islamic Republic of Iran sees the women's body.
Let's take a look at the most significant and important incentive and aggressive measures implemented in Iran since 2009 10.
First, instinctive measures encouraging Iranians to marry and found families Vedi York.
In November to tell us two to 10, 2010, Ahmadinejad expressed recommended marriage at the precocious age.
During a meeting in tribute to the actors and benefactors of Marriott.
Get the glass I put. For me, the ideal age for women to marry is between 16 and 18.
And for men between 19 and 21.
What I remind you, in two thousand and six, the mean age at first married for women was twenty twenty two point seven.
And for men, twenty six point five. Ahmadinejad went on to state that I called, okay?
We need to move towards simple marriage and support it.
I believe a simple and dignified, dignified Compte marriage has priority over employment and housing issues and cut the expression simple marriage.
You was used by the head of government to mean a marriage celebrated by an inexpensive ceremony and doree of a primary symbolic value.
For example, 40 gold coins. The name of the fourth did she Shiite any collates.
Ahmadinejad just proposed launching an initiative to conduct pullup hunger.
Now four simple early Megahed to this and the minister of the interior set up a foundation called
the National Foundation for Marriage between the ministry's department for women's efforts.
This foundation was tasked with coordinating all the state active activities for the marriage of young people supporting bodies.
What activities cause to stop infertility, isolating fat, syndicating marriage, and helping set up new structure to monitor these goals.
In addition, since to two thousand nine, the government grants and interest free loan to Iran young people in order to.
It is to Mary, Mary, Yonke. At the beginning, the amount was about one to three million.
Two months. But today it is between 70 to 100 million for months to assess the impact of this measure.
It is necessary to carry out a field survey, which is not possible under current conditions in Iraq.
Nevertheless, it is legitimate to assume that these measures, when these financial incentive seems significant,
have encouraged young people from disadvantaged strata, particularly in rural sectors, to get married young.
Did he upset that there probably single women aged 15 to 24 in Arlen Spectre?
And aged fifteen to twenty nine in rural sectors after steady rising for three decades, has dropped from 2006 to 2016.
In this fissure, especially in the rural sectors, the first the women of this.
Edge, at first, the mean age, at first,
marriage passed off fall from two twenty three point eight in 2006 to twenty two point seven in twenty twenty sixteen.
This can be explained in part by the impact of the state campaigns promoting marriage at very young ages.
Moreover, the change in age at Marriott.
Sim's. To be in line with the fertility trend between 2012 and total in 2012 and 2016, should you indeed who are there for a TV deal was stablish.
At a fair lot lower one point nine children per woman between 2010.
One and two. Twenty eight than. Has started to rise slightly.
Between 2012 and 20, see 16 at around two point one and two point two children per woman.
Now, look, we look at cuirass, it seems an aggressive measures holding this through version of a free con contraceptive in August.
2012. Taking advantage of a speech by the supreme leader during a meeting in which the professor.
He emphasised that if the population council policy continues, the population will grow.
Progress will be older and the population will ultimately decline.
Ahmadinejad mocked, blocked the family planning budget for the purchase of contraceptive in 2013 following recommendations by supreme leader.
The Family Planning Centre's budget was drastically reduced.
Consequently, these centre definitely halted the distribution of free contraceptives and stopped offering families and tubal ligatures.
As of 2013, of course, contraceptive admittedly still on sale in pharmacies.
But given the serious economic crisis and soaring inflation data, price rose steadily, making them unaffordable for disadvantaged classes.
Additionally, since these state pro-government media, including newspaper,
radio, television, together with clear, clear colourist during Friday prayers,
how this started its systematic offensive against contraceptive after and pupil open Yanta, the often very dangerous side effects for women helped.
The suspension of the distribution of contraceptive affects, in particular the families from the disadvantaged,
disadvantaged and mothers as to who ought to then could benefit from their various service
of the family planning centre to cultural or programme the calendar of their fertility.
Again, in the absence of appropriate data,
Michon marriages assume that this aggressive measure has affected fertility and possibly caused
on what that birth and consequently a slight increase in the fertility of married couples.
More importantly, women were deprived of their right to choose whether to have a child or not and their
reproductive health right would have been violated in case of unauthorised abortion.
The second course, active, even aggressive measure is an article of a draught.
No court population and to and this of the family, it concerns employment.
According to this article, the parliament, uranian, parliament gives employment priority in both the public and private sector to first.
Married men, Rete, Children, Segan, married man without children.
And Leslie Terk, two married women with children.
In the absence of married applicant, it is possible to employ qualified, unmarried individuals.
Men first, then remit. Given that the evolution of the main determinants of fertility in here is contributing to birth control.
I assume that this discriminatory, low hitting singles, especially women, has influenced the behaviour of married couples and young singles.
Given the severity of the economic situation in Europe and the high rate of unemployment,
young couples are likely to have changed their family project and the young men and women may
have decided to marry in order to increase the chances of accessing stable out of treatment.
It is possible that couples in particular have reduced their interval between marriage and the first,
third or between births if they have already tried.
Of course, until now, no data available laws to prove this hypothesis.
However, in the current state of knowledge of the social and economic situation of the country,
it seems to be the most likely experimentation of the slight increase in fertility between 2012 and 2016.
Since then, the worsening economic conditions,
mainly due to U.S. sanctions having significantly reduced the government's ability to continue both its coercive,
too coercive and an incident in sensitive measures have led to a continued decline in marriage.
And therefore the decline in birth and fertility.
After a slight rise between 2012 and 2016,
the fertility is started falling to one point nine to run in twenty eight eighteen and to one point seven in twenty nineteen.
To conclude, I would cut the paragraph seven point three of the International Conference on Population and Development Programme of actions.
It says, I quote, Reproductive rights are based on the right of couples and individuals to decide.
Free from discrimination, coercion and violence, whether to have children, how often and when to do so.
Having been necessary information and means to make such a decision.
It is also connected with gay rights to the highest attainable standard of sexual and reproductive health.
So you see, all the measure taken in Iran shows clearly that the Islamic Republic for this tragic take necessary.
I I must to emphasise the survival of the regime depends on it, did not hesitate to violate once again in a different way.
The human rights of women.
What you meant by reappropriating their fertility succeeded in coming out of the male state of the nation and they're switching dignity and equality.
They again find themselves subject to injunctions that will let their reproductive health rights and thereby human rights.
Thank you for your attention. Thank you very much, Marie.
Thank you. That's very, very rich.
It needs a lot of support for being in fact, some people have already asked me whether they could have the script of your paper.
If that is available, I you. Is there any way where they can access the written take your written text?
I think that the most important things that I talk about,
they can find in my article on the Journal of Iranian study I mentioned the article that Marty is referring
to is called The Islamic Republic of Iran's New Population Policy and Recent Changes in Fertility.
It's on the issue of March 20 21. So you will get all the figures that you are asking for that article.