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It's a really great pleasure for me to introduce our speaker to their professor Murray,

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lady of lady was the professor of demography and social sciences and the director

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of research at the National Centre for Scientific Research Centres in Paris.

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She also is a member of the Centre for Turkish, Ottoman, Balkan and Central Asian Studies.

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Settle back that. That's which she has joined since 2001 19.

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The main focus of Professor Laddies research is on relations, the relationship between demographic changes and socio political transformations,

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using that as a lens to look at other changes which are taking place in the society.

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On one of the main areas of her research has been on women and young people as agents of change,

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political change in Iraq, which is she's going to present part of that research today to us.

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And I'm delighted to say that this is about basically the Iranian population policies, that the state's population policies in Iran,

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which had very successfully managed to bring down population growth back in the 80s and 90s,

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and now they have turned the clock back on or adopting a pro nativist policy.

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Also, a marriage is going to talk to us today about how the new policies are going to affect women's rights in Iran.

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And she has published extensively in the airport list of publications is too run for me a visit to the Internet.

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We'll show you what she has been working on over the years.

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But she recently had a book published called Puplick Islamic Dulong, Voodoo Land Tapio, which was published in 2020.

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Can you show the book, please? It is in French. It looks lovely.

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And have one of her latest articles in the Journal of Iranian Studies has been the

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Islamic Republic of Iran's New Population Policy and Recent Changes in Fertility,

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which was published in March. Twenty twenty one.

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So my daughter, further ado, I am and please do remember to mute your cameras, everybody, and you can send your questions,

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write them and send them to me at the end of the talk and we will raise your questions, which Marie will answer.

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Thank you very much, Marie. Thank you very much for your this introduction.

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Before starting, I'd like to thank you for your invitation. I'm really, really pleased to contribute the talk to this research seminar.

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So in my email, PUDNEY 14 on the pretext of the threat of an ageing population due to birth control and the drop in fertility.

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The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, drew up a strategic programme in the Fortune article that created called The Population General Hollister's.

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It did. It is the matter of deploying all means possible to reverse Qantas infertility and

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especially to reach a target population of one hundred and fifty million people.

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The first question is whether this Neil population policy justified.

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Is Iran on the brink of widespread ageing and the numerical decline?

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The analysis of the demographic situation and population are sportive provides some clear answers.

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Over the past two decades, the age structure of the Iranian population has changed significantly as a result of very rapid fertility transition.

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According to the 2016 census, out of 18 million inhabitants, only 24 percent were under fifteen.

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While the proportion of the working age population, age 55 to 64 reached a very high percentage of 70 percent.

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Those 65 and all they're represented.

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Only six percent of the total population.

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Does the ratio of economically active population to economically inactive population was at a crucial moment of demographic change?

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This demographic window or gift thus offers an exceptional historic opportunity to encourage economic growth.

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Provided that the states succeed in creating a favour.

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Will in I wonder moment for job recovery. But the Islamic Republic was wasting its active population potential.

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And instead of recommending the establishment of even pro Missouri policies conducive to taking advantage of this demographic opportunity,

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the supreme leader has chosen to highlight the ageing of the population.

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Of course, this imminent ageing of the population is real and will we'll see.

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This situation demands the urgent implementation of social convert.

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For the Albury, for instance, retirement, part pension, all age insurance and Special K.

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In no way this population policy will constitute an adequate response to the

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current ageing of the population according the U.S. population projection in 2015.

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Iran reached one hundred and three million inhabitants. Remain one of the most populous countries in the war.

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It's been seven things and the 19 place. At this date, 20, 50, nearly a quarter of the population will be 65 or older.

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But the share of working age population will still be the largest at 60 percent.

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These uncontested data show that in the foreseeable future,

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Iran will certainly not be threatened, that bit decline their population or Danish generational?

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No real new. This confirms the hypothesis that the new population policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran,

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initiated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and confirmed by the supreme leader.

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Response foremost to political and ideological considerations.

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So what are these concentration pristinely?

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Therefore, 14 article decree called General Population Policies are drawn up in a key word,

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quote, term, which may give rise to different applications depending on the context.

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For example, the target of reaching a population of one hundred and fifteen million is not specifically state.

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But the first article stipulates that it is necessary to promote the dynamic growth and youthfulness of the population.

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Why an increase in fertility which should be above the replacement threshold without specifying the level of fertility target?

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According to certain policymakers, the figure is trade children.

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Why? For others, it is five to six children.

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Article two, amongst others, insist on the need to remove obstacles to reducing age at marriage.

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Yet no practical indications are given. Several of the decrease article referred to the need to cover the cost associated

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with pregnancy and maternity for infertility treatment for men and women,

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and for nutrition and health needs, including lessons in public schooling about funding families and the merits of so doing.

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And so on and so forth. What is six articles seems to focus on demographic considerations.

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Six others reveal the ideology car turner after recommendations.

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First one, promoting and institutionalising the Islamic and Iranian way of life to counter undesirable

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aspects of Western life aspects to reinforcing the competence of Nasrallah identity,

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which are Iranian, Islamic and revolutionary.

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Three, creating new settlement zones, particularly in the island along the coast of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman for managing.

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Immigration and immigration in concert with general population policies, five, promoting consensus and social integration.

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Across the territory, in particular, in the border zones and the mark, Iranian expatriates.

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And finally, six encouraging Iranian expatriates to return and invest in the country and thereby benefit from the possibilities and capabilities.

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And it being well aware that the predominant family model in Iran is to marry late and have a small nuclear family.

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The Islamic Republic's policy makers also know that the prospect of reaching a target

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population of one hundred and fifty million Iranians in the near future is utopian.

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These, to my mind, is what the decree never explicitly mentioned, this target.

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Why? No, the hinting at the idea of people in the entire territory by means other than rising Iranian fertility rate.

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The first man could be expectorate Iranians, as mentioned in Article twelve of the decree.

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Ever given that the majority of this expatriate Iranian oppose the Islamic regime,

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assuming they agree to return to Iran, they might instead end up causing political unrest for the regime.

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This is why it is unlikely that this policy will be a priority of the regime.

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Why mention is made of managing immigration and emigration in compliance with

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general population policies without any practical indication on this matter.

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It may be supposed that the Islamic Republic could envisage, including within the Iranian population,

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the couple of million Afghans living in Iran as refugees and or as undocumented migrant.

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Especially as since 2014.

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Afghans enlisted by their Revolutionary Guards strong as militiamen called for two million to fight alongside the Syrian army,

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have received Iranian nationality for themselves and their family.

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So it is very likely that by Iran and expatriates, the government I mean, Slavic Republic of Iran referred to these Afghans recently.

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Naturaliste. This mess policy of taking in migrants and integrating them may also concern Shiite militia recruited by the pastor in Pakistan.

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Called They Love You and fighting alongside the Revolutionary Guards in Syria.

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This practise by the pastor on seems fairly close to the spread of the twenty fourteen

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decree and suggest that their immigrant population included in the Iranian population,

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the prime benefits years, would be Shiite.

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Furthermore, these recommendations are for border zones.

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Thus pay for out regions, people may by Sunnis.

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In so far as this one, particularly those boarding Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east and Iraq and Turkey to the west

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seem porous with intense regular to weigh the circulation of populations from the same ethnic,

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linguistic and religious group, the state appears determined to kerb these flows.

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In light of this Article 13 of the decree, which calls to reinforce the competence of Iranian Islamic Andrew Woloshin,

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that a national identity and promote consensus and social integration across the territory,

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in particular in the mortar stores and amongst Iranian expatriates, takes on its full meaning.

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The objective is, above all, to provide Iran with a large population,

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but additionally one who adders to the values of the Islamic Republic defined as the components national identity.

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It is most likely that the Islamic Republic follows this path.

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And for these reasons, the new population policy of the Islamic Republic may be defined as population ist.

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Does the actual yet concept objective of the new population policy of the Islamic Republic is in reality to boost population growth,

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to reach one hundred and fifty million inhabitants with an Iran of one million, 50 million inhabitants?

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Tell Rikako the state hopes to cure a demographic weapon to exert influence in the region.

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It would indeed be destroy if we open.

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That would be crucial for it. Regime engaged in this protocol, dispute with the immediate neighbours and with the West.

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And one cannot fail to note it, coherence between this population, this direction and Iran's ambitions for a generally hegemony.

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Because exactly of this ideological and political objective, I must emphasise that the Islamic Republic took some incentive,

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Culver City and aggressive measures in order to accelerate the process of reversing the downward trend in fertility.

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It goes without saying that these measures were taken in violation of women's right.

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And, of course, their reproductive rights.

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In other words, to achieve this new population policy.

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The Islamic Republic of Iran sees the women's body.

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Let's take a look at the most significant and important incentive and aggressive measures implemented in Iran since 2009 10.

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First, incentive measures encouraging Iranians to marry and found families ladyhawke.

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In November 2010,

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Ahmadinejad expressed recommended marriage at the precocious age during a meeting in tribute to the actors and benefactors of Marriott.

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Hit the glass. I caught for me, the ideal age for women to marry is between 16 and 18.

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And for men between 19 and 21.

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What I remind you, in two thousand and six, the mean age.

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At first, married for women was twenty two point seven.

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And for men, twenty six point five. Ahmadinejad went on to state that I called, okay?

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We need to move towards a simple marriage and support it.

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I believe a simple and significant marriage has priority over employment and housing issues and got the expression simple marriage.

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You was used by the head of government to mean a marriage celebrated by an inexpensive ceremony and a doree of primarily symbolic value.

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For example, 14 gold coins. The name of the fourth.

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Did she write any collates? Ahmadinejad just proposed launching an initiative to conduct pullup hunger.

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Now four simple early Megahed to this and the minister of the interior set up a foundation called

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the National Foundation for Marriage between the ministry's department for women's efforts.

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This foundation was tasked with coordinating all the state activities for the marriage of young people,

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supporting bodys course activities cause to step in facts indicating marriage and helping set up new structure to monitor these goals.

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In addition, since 2009, the government grants and interest free loan to Iran young people in order to entice them to marry very young Yonke.

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At the beginning, the amount was about one to three million.

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Two months. But today it is between 70 to 100 million plemons.

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To assess the impact of this measure, it is necessary to carry out a field survey, which is not possible under current conditions in Iraq.

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Nevertheless, it is legitimate to assume that these measures, when these financial incentive seems significant,

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have encouraged young people from disadvantaged strata, particularly in rural sectors, to get married young.

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Indeed, he observed that there probably shouldn't single women aged 15 to 24 in urban sector and

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aged fifteen to twenty nine in rural sectors after steady rising for three decades,

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has dropped from 2006 to twenty sixteen.

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In this, especially in their rural sectors, the middle age,

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at first marriage passed far from two twenty three point eight in 2006 to twenty two point seven.

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In 2016. This can be explained in part by the impact of the state campaigns promoting marriage at very young ages.

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Moreover, the change in age at Marriott.

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Seems to be in line with the fertility trend between 2012 and 2016.

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Indeed, while their Furtiva deal was stablish it at a fair la Loba,

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one point nine children per woman between 2001 and 2011 has started to rise slightly

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between 2012 and 2016 at around two point one and two point two children per woman.

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Now we look at Quested said, save an aggressive measures doing this through version of a free contraceptive.

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In August 2012,

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taking advantage of a speech by the supreme leader during a meeting in which he emphasised that if the population control policy continues,

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the population will grow. Progress will be older and the population will ultimately decline and muddiness are blocked.

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The family planning budget for the purchase of contraceptive in 2013,

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following recommendations by supreme leader, the Family Planning Centre's budget was drastically reduced.

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Consequently, these centre definitely halted the distribution of free contraceptives and stopped offering Rezac families and tubal ligatures.

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As of 2013. Of course, contraceptive.

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Admittedly, it's still on sale in pharmacies.

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But given the serious economic crisis and soaring inflation data, price rose steadily, making them unaffordable for disadvantaged classes.

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Additionally, since these state pro-government media, including newspaper, radio, television, together with colourist during Friday prayers,

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have started it systematic offensive against contraceptive after and pupil open Yanta, the often very dangerous side effects for women hepped.

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The suspension of the distribution of contraceptive affects,

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in particular the families from the disadvantaged and mothers as to who ought to then could benefit from their

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various service of the family planning centre to cultural or programme the calendar of their fertility.

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Again, in the absence of appropriate data, Michon marriages assume that this aggressive measure has affected fertility and possibly caused

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on what that birth and consequently a slight increase in the fertility of married couples.

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More importantly, women were deprived of their right to choose whether to have a child or not and their

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reproductive health right would have been violated in case of unauthorised abortion.

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The second course, active, even aggressive major, is an article of the draught no court population.

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And this of the family. It concerns employment.

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According to this article, the parliament, uranian, parliament gives employment priority in both the public and private sector to first.

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Married men, Rete Children, Segan, married man out to right and Leslie Leithead to married women with children.

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In the absence of married applicant, it is possible to employ qualified, unmarried individuals.

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Men first, then remit. Given that the evolution of the main determinants of fertility in Europe is contributing to birth control.

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I assume that this this criminally low hitting singles, especially women, has influenced the behaviour of married couples and young singles.

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Given the severity of the economic situation in Europe and the high rate of unemployment,

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young couples are likely to have changed their family project and young men and women may

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have decided to marry in order to increase the chances of accessing stable employment.

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It is possible that couples in particular will have reduced their interval between marriage and the first,

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third or between births if they have already tried.

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Of course, until now, no data available laws to prove this hypothesis.

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However, in the current state of knowledge of the social and economic situation of the country,

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it seems to be the most likely experimentation of the slight increase in fertility between 2012 and twenty.

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Since then, the worsening economic conditions,

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mainly due to U.S. sanctions having significantly reduced the government's ability to continue both its coercive and incentive measures,

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have led to a continued decline in marriage and therefore the decline in birth and fertility after a slight rise between 2012 and 2016.

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The fertility started falling to one point nine to run in twenty eighteen and to one point seven in twenty nineteen.

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To conclude, I would cut the paragraph seven point three of the International Conference on Population and Development Programme of actions.

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It says, I quote, Reproductive rights are based on the right of couples and individuals to decide.

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Free from discrimination, coercion and violence, whether to have children, how often and when to do so.

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Having been necessary information and means to make such a decision,

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it is also connected with gay rights to the highest attainable standard of sexual and reproductive health.

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So you see, all the measure taken in Iran shows clearly that the Islamic Republic for this tragic take necessary.

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I must emphasise the survival of the regime depends on it, did not hesitate to violate once again in a different way.

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The human rights of women. What Iranian women, by reappropriating their fertility, succeeded in the coming out of the male sphere of the nation.

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And they're switching dignity and equality.

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They again find themselves subject to injunctions that violate their reproductive health rights and thereby human rights.

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Thank you for your attention. Thank you very much, Mary.

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Thank you. That's very, very rich. It needs a lot of hope.

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And in fact, some people have already asked me whether they could have the script of your paper.

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If that is available, is there any way where they can access your written text?

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I think that the most important things that I talk about, they can find in my article on the Journal of Iranian study I mentioned,

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it's like the article that the mother is referring to is called The Islamic Republic of Iran's New Population Policy and Recent Changes in fertility.

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It's on in the issue of March 20 21. So you will get all the figures that we are asking for that article.

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Well, I really very much enjoyed the inflammation. Thank you very.