1 00:00:05,810 --> 00:00:14,300 Welcome everyone. My name is Michael Willis, I'm the director of the Middle East Centre here at St. Anthony's College at the University of Oxford, 2 00:00:14,300 --> 00:00:19,280 and it gives me great pleasure to welcome you to the Middle East Centre webinar series. 3 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,480 This is a new series of events that will be running occasionally to address 4 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:28,550 significant issues that have arisen recently in the Middle East and North Africa. 5 00:00:28,550 --> 00:00:33,560 Now, the main purpose of these seminars is to provide a platform for experts on these 6 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:38,870 issues to discuss and explain what is happening in the region on a particular issue, 7 00:00:38,870 --> 00:00:42,440 and to help put developments in some wider context. 8 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:50,480 Our first webinar of the year focuses on Tunisia and looks at events that have occurred in the country over the last four months, 9 00:00:50,480 --> 00:00:58,520 particularly since July. The. That was when President CageSide Sayeed announced he was dismissing the government's suspending 10 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:03,320 the national parliament and lifting the immunity from prosecution for members of Parliament. 11 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:10,220 Now, this move was welcomed by many in Tunisia as a much needed shake up of the system, but have become corrupt and inefficient, 12 00:01:10,220 --> 00:01:17,210 in which it's signally failed to deal with both the COVID pandemic and Tunisia's deep economic problems. 13 00:01:17,210 --> 00:01:24,980 On the other hand, there were others in Tunisia who saw the move as a dangerous power grab by the president that threatened to uproot the democratic 14 00:01:24,980 --> 00:01:34,730 system that had been put in place in the aftermath of the popular uprising against President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, 15 00:01:34,730 --> 00:01:40,940 and thus in this way, possibly heralding the end of the one democracy that had been put in place as 16 00:01:40,940 --> 00:01:45,860 a result of the uprisings of what became known as the Arab Spring that year. 17 00:01:45,860 --> 00:01:49,580 Now, barely four months on, this debate continues. 18 00:01:49,580 --> 00:01:56,870 And to help explain and understand what has happened, we have invited two of the most prominent commentators on an analysts, 19 00:01:56,870 --> 00:02:02,270 the Tunisian political affairs, to discuss this issue. Our first speaker will be Yusuf Sharif. 20 00:02:02,270 --> 00:02:08,480 Yusuf is a Tunis based political analyst and runs the Columbia Global Centres in Tunis, 21 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,710 the North and West African Research Centre at Columbia University in the States. 22 00:02:12,710 --> 00:02:18,680 He is a member of Carnegie Civic Activism Network and has worked with a number of leading research centres and think tanks, 23 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:25,680 producing papers and commenting in the media. You regularly see yourself commenting across media in English, French and Arabic. 24 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:31,760 Yusuf Assaults of the editor of the book The Modern Arab State A Decade of uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, 25 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:39,740 which came out just this year. Second speakers Dr and Wolff, who is a fellow at All Souls College here at the University of Oxford. 26 00:02:39,740 --> 00:02:49,100 She is the author of a 2017 book Political Islam in Tunisia The History of Anata, which won the Choice Outstanding Academic Title, 27 00:02:49,100 --> 00:02:58,670 and she's well on my way to a second book based on her PhD thesis, which is entitled Ben Ali's Tunisia Power and Invention in an Authoritarian Regime. 28 00:02:58,670 --> 00:03:06,470 She is forthcoming with Oxford University Press, and so the title we're going to ask and put to both Youssef and Anne is the 29 00:03:06,470 --> 00:03:11,840 political crisis the end of democracy now before I hand over to our speakers. 30 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:16,790 I just want to say that both speakers will be speaking for about half an hour in total. 31 00:03:16,790 --> 00:03:25,610 We then will be turning over to questions and discussion. And if you would like to put a question to our speakers, you are very welcome to do so. 32 00:03:25,610 --> 00:03:31,940 If you're see on the Q and a question and answer function on Zoom, if you click the back, 33 00:03:31,940 --> 00:03:39,620 you can enter your question in the box there and then we will go through back and pick out questions and hopefully you'll get your questions. 34 00:03:39,620 --> 00:03:46,790 Asked if we have time in in the session? You're welcome to put your name down or if you're also very welcome to remain anonymous. 35 00:03:46,790 --> 00:03:54,380 Either way is fine by us, so to please put any questions you have to our speakers and we will discuss it in the second half of the webinar. 36 00:03:54,380 --> 00:04:01,050 So therefore I'm delighted to turn over to our first speaker, Youssef Sharif Youssef. 37 00:04:01,050 --> 00:04:06,150 Thank you very much, Michael. Hi, everyone. So I will start with a brief introduction. 38 00:04:06,150 --> 00:04:09,840 Go through this socio economic and political roots of the current crisis, 39 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:16,320 expand on the situation of Tunisia today and with the international dimension of this crisis. 40 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:25,530 So to start with, I would say that a decade of democratic transition left Tunisians unhappy about their country's economic and bureaucratic decline, 41 00:04:25,530 --> 00:04:34,380 or how it affects how many people perceive the last decade. They are extremely sceptical of the political and economic elites of the country, 42 00:04:34,380 --> 00:04:41,040 and vocal about what I mean by vocal about it is that thanks to the freedoms gained in the last decade, 43 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:46,110 Tunisians are allowed to express themselves openly and in the public sphere. 44 00:04:46,110 --> 00:04:52,320 So whatever problems there were and there are many of them, they were amplified and debated by everyone. 45 00:04:52,320 --> 00:05:00,250 This doesn't mean that we should neglect the nature of the problems or the structured nature of the. 46 00:05:00,250 --> 00:05:07,690 So views that Tunisia's economic situation has deteriorated in the last 10 years, this has affected most citizens. 47 00:05:07,690 --> 00:05:17,410 The pandemic only worsen the issues. And in summer 2021, just two months ago, a particularly violent, committed way to Tunisia, 48 00:05:17,410 --> 00:05:22,210 leaving thousands sick and that this is the background of President I. 49 00:05:22,210 --> 00:05:28,060 It's July 25th sauerkraut. And here is a short summary of where Tunisia is today. 50 00:05:28,060 --> 00:05:36,610 The president has monopolised most powers. Parliament is suspended and so are important articles of the Constitution. 51 00:05:36,610 --> 00:05:44,260 A number of dubious arrests took place and military units have become more active against civilians. 52 00:05:44,260 --> 00:05:49,330 The president happens to be the country's most popular politician and political entity. 53 00:05:49,330 --> 00:05:56,170 In fact, some think that he's more popular than all other politicians and political parties put together. 54 00:05:56,170 --> 00:06:01,120 So again, here at this news is important because with all of this happening, 55 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:09,490 one has to recognise that he is extremely popular and that when he says that he has the popular legitimacy he's not really like. 56 00:06:09,490 --> 00:06:14,140 Tunisia is under pressure by its traditional partners USA, the UK, the EU, 57 00:06:14,140 --> 00:06:22,010 most G7 countries, and it is frequently urged to return to the democratic US presidents. 58 00:06:22,010 --> 00:06:26,410 However, he seems to have a better reputation amongst the Saudis, the Emirates, 59 00:06:26,410 --> 00:06:30,130 but not necessarily strong supporters, and that will come back to this. 60 00:06:30,130 --> 00:06:38,770 The Algerians, the French and the Italians are also more willing to listen to various views, but also without fully backing him. 61 00:06:38,770 --> 00:06:47,110 Neither. And most importantly, the country's economic problems have ended on July 23, 2021. 62 00:06:47,110 --> 00:06:52,990 Now, day after day, idealism is being slowly replaced by reality. 63 00:06:52,990 --> 00:06:55,990 The president, who has all the powers, needs to deliver, 64 00:06:55,990 --> 00:07:03,820 but he's facing a pile of issues and from what we can see, discontent is mounting in the streets. 65 00:07:03,820 --> 00:07:12,610 Now I can go maybe later in the Q&A and see some figures that explain the economic problems that the country is going through. 66 00:07:12,610 --> 00:07:20,990 And it's actually, if you take a graph between 2010 and 2021, you see very clear decline on all aspects. 67 00:07:20,990 --> 00:07:31,120 So that actually explains why many, so many people feel unhappy about the last days of their economic situation really went down. 68 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,110 And because of, again, of the freedoms of expression they gained, 69 00:07:35,110 --> 00:07:40,750 they can complain about it to each other and see actually the mess in which they are. 70 00:07:40,750 --> 00:07:46,780 And therefore all Tunisians are aware of the big economic problems that the country is going through. 71 00:07:46,780 --> 00:07:54,220 And of course, the first ones to blame are the rulers, the elite political elite, the economic elite. 72 00:07:54,220 --> 00:08:02,110 And again, this is what happened. There is also a feeling amongst the population that corruption is endemic and that corruption is spreading. 73 00:08:02,110 --> 00:08:10,360 This is, of course, this was the case before 2011, but it continued, and most Tunisians have the perception at least. 74 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:20,080 I don't know if that's true, but at least the perception is that corruption became much more widespread after the revolution after 2011 than before. 75 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:29,950 So consequently, we see a large section of the population for whom democracy is synonymous with state collapse and by democracy. 76 00:08:29,950 --> 00:08:35,620 I mean the constant problem in political parties, political debates, constitution, etc. 77 00:08:35,620 --> 00:08:39,790 So think of the Tunisian constitution that especially in the West, 78 00:08:39,790 --> 00:08:45,640 people praised as one of the most advanced constitutions in the region or even in the world. 79 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:55,180 And so many conferences and so many stories were made about this constitution and so many articles, both academic and journalistic. 80 00:08:55,180 --> 00:08:59,630 Then you go and ask Tunisians and they would tell you, No, no, no, no. This constitution is nonsense. 81 00:08:59,630 --> 00:09:06,400 This constitution is useless, and they will tell you about corruption, etc. Again, here I am talking not about all Tunisians, 82 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:16,030 but a majority of Tunisians, and definitely not the supporters of another or of the few political parties, but a majority of Tunisian school. 83 00:09:16,030 --> 00:09:25,040 Today we see them supporting both sides. So these are actually the citizens who celebrated the president's power grab 84 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:30,470 and who tell you that whatever happens now and whatever happens in the future, 85 00:09:30,470 --> 00:09:36,060 it can't be worse than where the country was three months ago. 86 00:09:36,060 --> 00:09:41,530 They will tell you that I'm not sure they will say the same thing in three or six months from now. 87 00:09:41,530 --> 00:09:50,440 Now, moving from the economic and social situation to the political situation today, we see all of them are related, obviously. 88 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:55,570 Today we see the army encircling the parliament and we see the president ruling by decrees. 89 00:09:55,570 --> 00:10:02,350 So we are tempted to describe the situation in black and white democracy versus authoritarians. 90 00:10:02,350 --> 00:10:09,070 But this is misleading because political parties in Tunisia represent only a few handfuls of protests, 91 00:10:09,070 --> 00:10:13,460 even enough number that was seen as so powerful and so influential. 92 00:10:13,460 --> 00:10:20,140 It proved actually very weak. When you look on July 25th, when you know when the power grab happened, 93 00:10:20,140 --> 00:10:26,380 we haven't seen what we saw in Turkey, for instance, during the failed coup against Erdogan. 94 00:10:26,380 --> 00:10:33,340 We haven't seen and now partisans in the streets calling for a return of the parliament and so on. 95 00:10:33,340 --> 00:10:43,090 We haven't seen another party since predicting another. So even if not approved, actually a much weaker political party than most observers thought, 96 00:10:43,090 --> 00:10:49,240 and the parliament is actually home to many employees who are completely disconnected from their constituencies. 97 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,720 The governments that ruled Tunisia in the last decade were mostly the result 98 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,620 of informal negotiations that had little to do with the elections results. 99 00:10:56,620 --> 00:11:03,670 So just take the example of the last Prime Minister Masisi. He disappeared for a few days after July 25th. 100 00:11:03,670 --> 00:11:09,550 And as far as I know, no one really knew. For him there were no demonstrations calling for his return. 101 00:11:09,550 --> 00:11:14,630 No, not even a Facebook campaign asking for him to reappear. 102 00:11:14,630 --> 00:11:20,740 So the political parties and the economy interest groups that have controlled Tunisian politics during the last decade, 103 00:11:20,740 --> 00:11:24,790 they ignored the fact that election after election year after year, 104 00:11:24,790 --> 00:11:35,410 the number of voters decreased and the number of those polled and claiming that they feel underrepresented by the political class continued to grow. 105 00:11:35,410 --> 00:11:43,030 And this is a reminder that the country was actually facing a major crisis of legitimacy political legitimacy on July 25th, 106 00:11:43,030 --> 00:11:49,870 when the president decided to act now. Does it mean that the president has more legitimacy than those? 107 00:11:49,870 --> 00:11:57,820 Not necessarily. The president is extremely popular today, but that's because the ruling clique, he is widely hated. 108 00:11:57,820 --> 00:12:02,440 And also because Tunisia was suffering from the COVID pandemic this summer, 109 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:07,660 as I mentioned earlier, until the vaccines came by the end of July and in August. 110 00:12:07,660 --> 00:12:17,110 So in the perception of many Tunisian side, you see presidents seen as the one who brought the vaccines and who saved lives. 111 00:12:17,110 --> 00:12:23,500 But I think once the euphoria is over, once the economic realities of the country come to the fore, 112 00:12:23,500 --> 00:12:27,190 the president himself will have to confront the fact that he like it was, 113 00:12:27,190 --> 00:12:34,870 he dismissed, doesn't have any real constituency and that his legitimacy may vanish in a matter of days. 114 00:12:34,870 --> 00:12:41,260 So now going to Tunisia today to legitimise his move, 115 00:12:41,260 --> 00:12:46,840 president side uses the populist narrative of speaking in the name of the people and acting for the people. 116 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,630 And as I said, he's very so. 117 00:12:49,630 --> 00:12:58,600 In the last few months, there were a number of actions that were taken with the umbrella of being taken in the name of the people. 118 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,110 So a lot of dormant corruption cases were reported. 119 00:13:02,110 --> 00:13:12,340 Several MPC politicians and businessmen face trial or are in jail, and actually many of these trials were shelved or postponed. 120 00:13:12,340 --> 00:13:17,680 In the last decade, because of political settlements and for a few weeks after his power grab. 121 00:13:17,680 --> 00:13:24,430 Then were travel bans imposed on many politicians and businessmen without further explanation, so it was somewhat arbitrary. 122 00:13:24,430 --> 00:13:31,570 But by the way, they were released, assistance for any criticism is fame in the country by the president and his supporters. 123 00:13:31,570 --> 00:13:36,610 So this is the atmosphere actually also recent. 124 00:13:36,610 --> 00:13:40,030 Just recently, there is a group called Tunisians against the coup. 125 00:13:40,030 --> 00:13:46,390 They wanted to set up a press conference and then they were told that they cannot hold press conference. 126 00:13:46,390 --> 00:13:52,330 These days, there is a garbage crisis in something Tunisia and its facts around facts. 127 00:13:52,330 --> 00:13:58,150 And the response of the president was to send in the police, which used teargas. 128 00:13:58,150 --> 00:14:03,100 Actually, this was the first tests of face to face an angry mob. 129 00:14:03,100 --> 00:14:05,890 And he reacted just like his predecessors. 130 00:14:05,890 --> 00:14:14,320 So there are a lot of troubles happening now in the country, and demonstrations are expected to continue and increase over time. 131 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:19,090 Whether side will continue to refuse dialogue and use the police extend our conversations. 132 00:14:19,090 --> 00:14:24,010 We still don't know. Now on on a slightly more positive note, 133 00:14:24,010 --> 00:14:29,470 we see that there is a civilian government that was just appointed not at security government 134 00:14:29,470 --> 00:14:36,490 and not then not a government that responds to political whims of this or that group. 135 00:14:36,490 --> 00:14:43,000 We see also that there are no attacks in the country. I mean, again, compare with Egypt in 2013. 136 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:51,160 You can compare it on barely no immediate or very serious threat to the freedom of expression. 137 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:56,080 You know, for instance, the day after the power up and jazeera offices were raided, 138 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,310 but Al Jazeera journalists are free to operate and broadcast live from Tunisia. 139 00:15:00,310 --> 00:15:07,000 The group Tunisians against the Coup were not able to state their press conference in the hall. 140 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:08,890 They were able to do it in the streets, 141 00:15:08,890 --> 00:15:15,220 and they actually got more publicity because they were in the street and cameras were filming and it was on Facebook and so on. 142 00:15:15,220 --> 00:15:20,230 There are regular and outside demonstrations organised in the country, 143 00:15:20,230 --> 00:15:27,910 and the usually the main labour union has resumed its strikes and demonstrations without being harassed. 144 00:15:27,910 --> 00:15:35,350 So to answer the title of this webinar, I would say that democracy hasn't ended yet in Tunisia, 145 00:15:35,350 --> 00:15:39,790 and I will just finish with the international dimension, I think. 146 00:15:39,790 --> 00:15:45,400 I only have maybe two minutes left. We can discuss this later, maybe the Q&A. 147 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:52,030 So I would say that while no Western government consolidates power, grab coup or impose sanctions, 148 00:15:52,030 --> 00:15:55,870 we see that Tunisia is under pressure to revert back to its democratic past. 149 00:15:55,870 --> 00:16:01,600 As I say as the EU, especially Germany, the IMF and World Bank, 150 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:10,480 and all and most of the G7 countries are kind of worried about where Tunisia is going and they are exerting pressure on the 151 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:19,720 country and society is actually the president and his supporters are very easily offended by the criticism coming from abroad. 152 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:27,340 But again, another another nuance here. He's very careful not to predict Tunisia's ties with these foreign partners. 153 00:16:27,340 --> 00:16:34,930 So we haven't seen any ambassador being withdrawn nor ambassador, nor embassies closed and no projects were cancelled. 154 00:16:34,930 --> 00:16:40,970 Negotiations with the IMF continue. The appointed government is rather cosmopolitan. 155 00:16:40,970 --> 00:16:49,030 I mean, the ministers are rather cosmopolitan. We don't see radical nationalists or radical revolutionaries, or I mean, maybe some of them are, 156 00:16:49,030 --> 00:16:57,190 but the majority of them are more cosmopolitan figures who lived abroad, worked with international organisations and so on. 157 00:16:57,190 --> 00:17:03,520 So this is this is one part. These are the angry ones now, the ones who are not very unhappy. 158 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:10,510 We see that the Saudis, the Emiratis, the Egyptians keep praising president on their outlets. 159 00:17:10,510 --> 00:17:16,030 They send secretary laudatory invoice to Tunisia in the days following the power grab. 160 00:17:16,030 --> 00:17:21,520 And they have also sent important COVID aid and vaccines in July and August. 161 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:29,830 And they actually through that. They contributed in modelling the image of the saviour that the president enjoys today. 162 00:17:29,830 --> 00:17:37,660 The Algerians, the French and the Italians seem to also give side effects, they barely issue any criticism. 163 00:17:37,660 --> 00:17:42,760 Whether another nuance here, three months after four months after the power grab, 164 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:50,740 we haven't seen any one of these countries offering Tunisia and the billions it actually the billions of dollars it needs to pass the winter. 165 00:17:50,740 --> 00:17:59,330 Their support is so far moral and not physical, I can say, which means that actually outside is not their guy. 166 00:17:59,330 --> 00:18:07,240 He's his own guy, a very stubborn nationalist leader with a very idealist mindset who is hard to go. 167 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:15,070 This leaves Tunisia in some no man's land, neither east nor west, but desperately in need of support. 168 00:18:15,070 --> 00:18:21,010 It's neither a democracy nor an authoritarian regime, but it's somewhere in Graystone. 169 00:18:21,010 --> 00:18:24,670 Until when can this last? This is an open question. 170 00:18:24,670 --> 00:18:28,360 Thank you very much. Thank you very much. 171 00:18:28,360 --> 00:18:34,750 You set for a remarkably clear and concise treatment of what has happened over the last four months. 172 00:18:34,750 --> 00:18:38,800 And thank you particularly for adding more nuance. As you indicated, 173 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:44,350 a lot of the coverage and discussion has fallen very clearly into one of two rather 174 00:18:44,350 --> 00:18:48,640 polarised positions seeing it as something very good or something very damaging, 175 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:53,410 and it's very good to hear it. Actually, it's a much more makes them much more nuanced picture. 176 00:18:53,410 --> 00:18:58,600 So thank you very much. Now turn to and pose the same question to you. 177 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:04,090 Is it the end of end of democracy in Tunisia and. Thank you very much, Michael. 178 00:19:04,090 --> 00:19:13,690 I'm afraid I'm a little bit more in the more damaging camp, so a little bit more critical than yourself, and I will explain in a minute why. 179 00:19:13,690 --> 00:19:17,940 Just going to start the presentation. 180 00:19:17,940 --> 00:19:27,390 So I'm going to focus my talk on Karzai at his rise and political project and and specific, I'm going to focus on three main points. 181 00:19:27,390 --> 00:19:35,430 The first is Karzai, its background and rise to power. Second, his political vision and strategies of power consolidation. 182 00:19:35,430 --> 00:19:40,780 And lastly, the challenges he faces and possible future scenarios. 183 00:19:40,780 --> 00:19:45,790 But first, I would like to start with a few quotes of him, and I'm not going to discuss them in much detail, 184 00:19:45,790 --> 00:19:53,170 but just wanted to put them out as I do think they can be quite well his political ambitions and ideas. 185 00:19:53,170 --> 00:20:03,460 First in April, so even before what I would refer to as the cool Karzai had claimed, I'm the commander of the security forces, not just of the army. 186 00:20:03,460 --> 00:20:05,410 However, according to the Constitution, 187 00:20:05,410 --> 00:20:12,490 he is just a commander of the Army and the National Guard and the police under the command of the prime minister. 188 00:20:12,490 --> 00:20:16,680 But Karzai not accept this division of power. 189 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:24,360 Then in June, so again, before the coup, he talked about his plan to change the Constitution and to install a presidential system. 190 00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:29,620 And he stated that they are those who will adhere to the new political system as well. 191 00:20:29,620 --> 00:20:37,110 Those who would persist in the fallacious methods be sure that they would end up in the dustbin of history. 192 00:20:37,110 --> 00:20:41,970 In his 25 July statement, when he announced yet taking over power and suspend parliament, 193 00:20:41,970 --> 00:20:50,130 the government he threatened if anyone fires a single bullet against the security forces there will respond by a rain of bullets. 194 00:20:50,130 --> 00:20:56,640 And a month later, he declared that the exceptional measures would be extended until the new order. 195 00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:03,210 And I said, of course, being the one deciding what the new order is and when it will be achieved. 196 00:21:03,210 --> 00:21:09,030 And I personally don't think there's anyone, anyone much ambiguity about Kasowitz intentions, 197 00:21:09,030 --> 00:21:14,940 namely that he wants to rule alone and that he doesn't accept any opposition to his rule. 198 00:21:14,940 --> 00:21:19,860 Indeed, he even threatens to use force against any challenges. 199 00:21:19,860 --> 00:21:25,890 And I would just like to briefly revisit Kasai, its 2009 electoral campaign, so this slide. 200 00:21:25,890 --> 00:21:29,040 The picture you see is from 2019. 201 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:38,840 And my main point here is that he never really hit his intentions to instigate deep changes to Tunisia's political institutions. 202 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:45,570 And just a little bit of background for those of you who are not very familiar with Tunisian politics in 2019, 203 00:21:45,570 --> 00:21:48,410 OK, say it basically appeared out of nowhere. 204 00:21:48,410 --> 00:21:57,470 He's a professor in constitutional law and ran a grassroots campaign back then with almost no advertisement and no party apparatus behind him. 205 00:21:57,470 --> 00:22:04,370 His key message were youth empowerment, the fight against corruption and socioeconomic redistribution. 206 00:22:04,370 --> 00:22:12,530 And he portrayed himself as the president of the people of the disenfranchised and to marginalised, especially young Tunisians. 207 00:22:12,530 --> 00:22:16,760 And the fact that he wasn't a part of the political establishment and hardly spent 208 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,930 any money at all on campaigning was seen as evidence that he's trustworthy, 209 00:22:20,930 --> 00:22:28,650 clean and honest, very different from how the political elite at that time was seen by the people. 210 00:22:28,650 --> 00:22:37,060 And the main controversies back then were really about his conservative positions on a number of issues, such as women's rights. 211 00:22:37,060 --> 00:22:48,760 He spoke out against equality in inheritance, homosexuality, which he wanted to criminalise, as well as his support of the death penalty. 212 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:56,290 But interestingly, in his positions on Tunisia's political system did not draw as much attention back then at all, 213 00:22:56,290 --> 00:23:00,850 and this was despite the fact that he openly said that he would like to change the Constitution, 214 00:23:00,850 --> 00:23:05,380 introduce a political system and change the electoral laws. 215 00:23:05,380 --> 00:23:14,350 However, these ideas were back then commonly portrayed in a way as yet the idealist, the utopian beliefs of a professor. 216 00:23:14,350 --> 00:23:21,340 And I think this image today very much prevails amongst some sectors in Tunisia. 217 00:23:21,340 --> 00:23:25,570 And I did find the testimony of one of his former students in 2019, 218 00:23:25,570 --> 00:23:31,540 which you can see on the bottom right corner of the slide, I found it actually very interesting. 219 00:23:31,540 --> 00:23:37,390 The student described cageside in 2019 as a man haunted by an idea who has some 220 00:23:37,390 --> 00:23:44,800 reservations about representative democracy as it is practised and experienced in Tunisia. 221 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,010 And I did find the adjective haunted very powerfully, 222 00:23:48,010 --> 00:23:54,760 because it does convey the extent to which political change has been sent to him for a very long time. 223 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,340 It's almost as if the student wants to tell us he has been obsessed by it. 224 00:23:59,340 --> 00:24:08,190 And really, what has characterised Tisci ever since you took power was his complete unwillingness to compromise on his political vision. 225 00:24:08,190 --> 00:24:08,550 Indeed, 226 00:24:08,550 --> 00:24:20,390 an unwillingness to engage with any other political tendencies on anything at all or to even engage with them in any meaningful or constructive way. 227 00:24:20,390 --> 00:24:28,100 And I think what we saw on the 25th of July when he suspended Parliament of Parliament and the government is 228 00:24:28,100 --> 00:24:36,740 in a way the culmination of this tendency of no compromise and engagement with other political tendencies. 229 00:24:36,740 --> 00:24:43,260 So now, fast forward, desired since twenty 25 of July. 230 00:24:43,260 --> 00:24:53,280 On the top left, you see him surrounded by top security officers as he announced that he has suspended Parliament of the government on the top right. 231 00:24:53,280 --> 00:25:04,830 You can see him during a speech to the public while holds up some posters featuring scenes of disturbance and quarrels in parliament, 232 00:25:04,830 --> 00:25:12,330 and he uses that to show to what extent in peace and instigators of violence, 233 00:25:12,330 --> 00:25:13,110 according to him, 234 00:25:13,110 --> 00:25:22,650 and basically to justify him shutting parliament down and referring to it as useless and not representative of the people on the bottom left. 235 00:25:22,650 --> 00:25:29,430 You can see through side protesters and the picture on the bottom right I find particularly interesting. 236 00:25:29,430 --> 00:25:35,310 You can see Karzai at behind and with the new Prime Minister Natalegawa then 237 00:25:35,310 --> 00:25:42,360 and I find a symbolism of this picture actually very powerful and interesting. 238 00:25:42,360 --> 00:25:50,220 Say it behind his beautiful desk, looking very much presidential like and the prime minister sitting in front of him, 239 00:25:50,220 --> 00:25:59,310 looking up on a simple chair almost as if he was a student looking at a professor pool waiting for instructions and guidance. 240 00:25:59,310 --> 00:26:04,910 And I do think that reflects the dynamics between the two of them very well. 241 00:26:04,910 --> 00:26:13,550 As Joseph mentioned, parricide remains extremely popular with the people this power grab was initially when called by many political actors. 242 00:26:13,550 --> 00:26:17,890 Indeed, according to the latest polls, which I just checked before. 243 00:26:17,890 --> 00:26:25,490 About 80 percent of the people are still satisfied with him today, and that's really, really massive and important. 244 00:26:25,490 --> 00:26:32,850 This is also due to what can be referred to as populist strategy of power consolidation. 245 00:26:32,850 --> 00:26:36,790 I say it portrays him, says of the leader of Tunisia's revolution. 246 00:26:36,790 --> 00:26:44,500 He says that the previous political leaders hijacked the revolution, and he wants to finally do justice to people's revolutionary demands. 247 00:26:44,500 --> 00:26:53,590 He denounces political parties as that corrupt, and he barges to introduce an element of local democracy that gives power back to the people. 248 00:26:53,590 --> 00:27:01,010 Supposedly, of course, I don't think what we're seeing here right now is really going into the democratic direction. 249 00:27:01,010 --> 00:27:04,610 I say it really positions themselves as the spokesman of the people, 250 00:27:04,610 --> 00:27:13,600 the only one who knows what the people want and the way he thinks he is, the one who can read and realise people's demands. 251 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:18,430 So when people ask him what is political project is he commonly replies, 252 00:27:18,430 --> 00:27:24,010 I want what the people want if he's being asked a follow up question, what do the people want? 253 00:27:24,010 --> 00:27:29,290 He says that people know what they want. So not very useful. 254 00:27:29,290 --> 00:27:37,690 He also plays on people's nationalist sentiments and commonly denounces foreign interference, as Joseph has mentioned his words. 255 00:27:37,690 --> 00:27:46,120 And of course, this nationalism or revolution of populism are common strategies of domination amongst wannabe dictators or strongmen, 256 00:27:46,120 --> 00:27:53,080 especially those who take power at wider political and economic crisis and promise to correct past wrongs. 257 00:27:53,080 --> 00:28:04,240 So it's really not that exceptional in this respect. And I think I say it also implies another common strategy of power consolidation, 258 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:10,990 which is the instigation of confusion and general vagueness about what comes next. 259 00:28:10,990 --> 00:28:17,230 Some people often say that, you know, he can say it might not know him, said what he wants and what's next. 260 00:28:17,230 --> 00:28:24,460 But I think he has shown very clearly over the past weeks, months and even years that he knows what he wants. 261 00:28:24,460 --> 00:28:31,970 He has always envisioned a strong presidency, and he should not be underestimated because of that. 262 00:28:31,970 --> 00:28:40,490 And he's deliberately instigating, to some extent, a confusion about his project, because if by some time and when people are confused, 263 00:28:40,490 --> 00:28:48,230 they are also not organising as forcefully against him because they still have hope that something positive will come out of this crisis. 264 00:28:48,230 --> 00:28:55,340 And even now is facing increasing opposition from the political class and from some civil society groups, 265 00:28:55,340 --> 00:29:03,740 many key actors are still waiting for something to happen. They are hoping that this will end in the way they they want. 266 00:29:03,740 --> 00:29:11,420 But say has been using this time to place many of his allies in strategic positions to pursue structural changes, 267 00:29:11,420 --> 00:29:21,620 nominating a prime minister and a government that he largely controls, as well as imprisoning some opposition figures. 268 00:29:21,620 --> 00:29:30,480 So the question is really what is this plan? What kind of regime does you want and what kind of regime is she trying to construct? 269 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:35,650 And obviously, it's too early to be sure in the next weeks and months will be pivotal in that respect, 270 00:29:35,650 --> 00:29:41,580 but I do think he has some kind of what we call hybrid or competitive authoritarian regime in mind. 271 00:29:41,580 --> 00:29:51,570 So an autocratic system that retains some democratic features, but that does not pose any real challenge to the leader, so to himself. 272 00:29:51,570 --> 00:29:59,250 So this could, for example, consist of introducing some kind of local democratic elections, even presidential elections, 273 00:29:59,250 --> 00:30:06,950 which you would obviously be certain to win at this stage given the massive popular support he has. 274 00:30:06,950 --> 00:30:13,130 The real question really is with Karzai, it succeeds in his project. 275 00:30:13,130 --> 00:30:18,890 And I've heard a lot of comparisons between Egypt and Tunisia over the past weeks and months, 276 00:30:18,890 --> 00:30:22,010 and there are some obvious parallels in the sense that in both countries, 277 00:30:22,010 --> 00:30:30,680 the coups that happened after the Arab uprising had the backing of the army and of the range of anti-democratic and anti Islamist forces. 278 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:35,540 But I also do things like Youssef also mentioned that the comparison in many ways is limited. 279 00:30:35,540 --> 00:30:39,980 The main political actors in Tunisia and Egypt very different. 280 00:30:39,980 --> 00:30:45,390 The power balance is different, and the main political stakeholders are very distinct. 281 00:30:45,390 --> 00:30:52,290 However, I do think that the comparison between cageside and Benali when Benali took power is quite insightful, 282 00:30:52,290 --> 00:30:57,570 as it can reveal some of the main challenges that lie ahead for science. 283 00:30:57,570 --> 00:31:07,650 Just some background here in 1987, but Ali also conducted what back then was similarly termed a constitutional coup that was supported by the army. 284 00:31:07,650 --> 00:31:17,040 And Ben Ali back then was also a relative political newcomer, and he took power during a time of wider political and economic crises. 285 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:22,880 So though obviously not as accurate as it was in Tunisia the summer. 286 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:32,570 And similar to Sayid, Ben Ali employed a rhetoric of wanting to correct past political and economic wrongs, 287 00:31:32,570 --> 00:31:40,940 and the main difference between the two of them was really that I say it obviously is very popular and Ben Ali has a military background, 288 00:31:40,940 --> 00:31:46,170 which is very significant. However, how did Ben Ali consolidate power? 289 00:31:46,170 --> 00:31:55,930 What did he do? He employed a very different approach, he got that a very broad support coalition that included all the main political actors, 290 00:31:55,930 --> 00:32:05,350 the utility workers union, the ruling party's secular opposition parties, even representative of the Islamist movement. 291 00:32:05,350 --> 00:32:08,050 So Ben Ali decided to reach out to all of them. 292 00:32:08,050 --> 00:32:18,300 And once he had accumulated enough power the space of two years, he began to slowly crack down on his main challenges. 293 00:32:18,300 --> 00:32:22,410 And from a competitive research and also in politics with politics, 294 00:32:22,410 --> 00:32:30,360 we know that such broad coalitions are most conducive to power consolidation of strongman or wannabe dictators. 295 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:41,460 However, I say it is very different in that respect. I say it is vilifying indeed slandering all major political parties, national organisations, 296 00:32:41,460 --> 00:32:46,800 calling them, for example, drunken and denouncing the corrupt and liars. 297 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:54,960 Even those that initially supported him. And as a result is becoming increasingly political, isolated. 298 00:32:54,960 --> 00:33:00,330 And this will be a major challenge, especially in the medium and long term. 299 00:33:00,330 --> 00:33:07,110 I'm not aware of any main political party or national organisations still supporting them, 300 00:33:07,110 --> 00:33:15,480 and I say it will not be able to approach this popular support base forever in part of this political isolation. 301 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:19,860 Also, he's acknowledges himself that he's not good with numbers and economy. 302 00:33:19,860 --> 00:33:24,680 He does not have a magic solution to solve Tunisia's economic problems. 303 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:30,300 And if anything, the current political crisis will just make him much worse. 304 00:33:30,300 --> 00:33:39,280 And this, in turn, does make his political future very much dependent on the support he receives from the army. 305 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:44,500 And to conclude, I would like to outline three main scenarios for the future. 306 00:33:44,500 --> 00:33:52,450 The most optimistic one and the one I believe of hope will happen is that domestic and international pressure 307 00:33:52,450 --> 00:34:00,490 will increase and gradually force Kasia to come to agree to some kind of roadmap with all key political actors. 308 00:34:00,490 --> 00:34:11,830 And so a solution to the crisis would be found. However, I have to say that at this point in time, he has categorically refused such a path. 309 00:34:11,830 --> 00:34:15,700 The second one is that he will consolidate more and more power, 310 00:34:15,700 --> 00:34:23,380 and we will see more and more restrictions on political freedoms, especially as his popularity will gradually fade. 311 00:34:23,380 --> 00:34:27,700 Basically, he will join the ranks of populist dictators around the world. 312 00:34:27,700 --> 00:34:37,920 And judging from the picture on the slide, which has been circulating on social media, that's what some Tunisians seem to believe is happening. 313 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,850 And in a third scenario, the army takes over. 314 00:34:41,850 --> 00:34:50,310 This could happen, for example, of major violence erupts between its supporters and the opposition, or simply the economic crisis will worse. 315 00:34:50,310 --> 00:34:58,500 And so we see many more instances of social unrest and demonstrations as is happening and sparks quite something at the moment. 316 00:34:58,500 --> 00:35:06,270 So officers might decide to step in in this scenario, even if just for a transitional period. 317 00:35:06,270 --> 00:35:12,840 So as you can see, a little bit more bleak, my presentation and my talk compared to Yousef's and I will leave it here for now. 318 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:18,250 But I look very much forward to discussing with all of you during the Q&A. 319 00:35:18,250 --> 00:35:23,830 Thank you very much indeed. And they say it has been a bit of a mystery figure, 320 00:35:23,830 --> 00:35:32,680 I think even since he was elected and you've gone some way to trying to demystify who he is and what he's about, so thank you very much. 321 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:40,810 We now move on to looking questions and answers, and I encourage you again to use the questionable assumption if you want to 322 00:35:40,810 --> 00:35:44,860 pose a question to real speakers or a more general question to both speakers. 323 00:35:44,860 --> 00:35:49,720 So I do encourage you to do that. So that's in the Q&A. You just click on the Q&A function. 324 00:35:49,720 --> 00:35:51,760 You can then type in your question. 325 00:35:51,760 --> 00:36:02,110 I would like to begin with a question I have about speakers, and it comes back to something that was a quote from an ice site, said. 326 00:36:02,110 --> 00:36:08,350 And he said he seems to have reservations about representative democracy as it's practised in Tunisia. 327 00:36:08,350 --> 00:36:15,070 Now it seems to me that this reservation is substantially shared with a large part of the Tunisian population. 328 00:36:15,070 --> 00:36:20,710 They both have reservations about representative democracy as it's practised in Tunisia. 329 00:36:20,710 --> 00:36:24,460 And my question is really to focus on that last emphasis. 330 00:36:24,460 --> 00:36:33,730 Is it a reservation about representative democracy in the way it's being practised and introduced in Tunisia over the last 10 years? 331 00:36:33,730 --> 00:36:41,140 Or is it actually a more profound reservation they share about representative democracy as a way of running Tunisia? 332 00:36:41,140 --> 00:36:44,680 In other words, it's not just the way it's been done, it's just the general principle. 333 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,760 And if so, what sort of ways out of the sky site has a view of what? 334 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:53,770 What could replace this more traditional form of representative democracy? 335 00:36:53,770 --> 00:37:02,060 So perhaps go first to use upon that use it. So the issue here is that no one is actually giving an alternate. 336 00:37:02,060 --> 00:37:11,310 Yes, he has reservations. Many people have reservations, but then ask them, Why do you suggest? 337 00:37:11,310 --> 00:37:13,980 What you hear usually is, oh, we need the presidential system, 338 00:37:13,980 --> 00:37:22,500 because that's how Tunisia was ruled for most of its post-colonial era, and many consider that it works. 339 00:37:22,500 --> 00:37:31,050 But then is there something like a very clear guidebook on where we're going and how we should go there? 340 00:37:31,050 --> 00:37:34,480 No. Even President Fireteam himself, it doesn't. 341 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:41,610 If you look for his programme during the elections, you have some speeches, but you don't have something concrete. 342 00:37:41,610 --> 00:37:46,440 So the plan that many people are talking about today doesn't exist. 343 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:52,980 It's being put in place now, probably by some groups around him, but it's not there yet. 344 00:37:52,980 --> 00:38:03,210 While the parliamentary or semi parliamentary system that we had is something that a lot of experts sat together and put in place. 345 00:38:03,210 --> 00:38:06,900 And yeah, and so that's how how it was created. 346 00:38:06,900 --> 00:38:14,480 So it's not something that was imposed. Like many people who are critical of the period before the United States. 347 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:22,230 So my my fear here, when we when many Tunisians say that they want another political system. 348 00:38:22,230 --> 00:38:29,920 My fear is that one there is nothing clear concrete. So the thing that they're heading to that the country is headed to is when and 349 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:37,710 describe something of the more maybe hybrid democracy or hybrid authoritarian system, 350 00:38:37,710 --> 00:38:40,710 but actually something that is less democratic than where we were. 351 00:38:40,710 --> 00:38:47,340 And as we know from many examples in the world, you can take any dictatorship, call it a democracy and move on. 352 00:38:47,340 --> 00:38:48,540 But actually, it's a dictatorship. 353 00:38:48,540 --> 00:38:56,250 I mean, China or North Korea or even Russia, they call themselves democracy, and they I mean the concept of sovereign democracy in Russia. 354 00:38:56,250 --> 00:39:02,130 So we have something similar in Tunisia and then present it as a democracy. 355 00:39:02,130 --> 00:39:10,920 That's that's a risk. And I mean, I agree with many points that the state but for other reasons that are. 356 00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:17,670 I mean, the balance of power in the country. I still think that we're not going there yet. 357 00:39:17,670 --> 00:39:22,470 And I still think that four months after the power grab, we don't have an eternity. 358 00:39:22,470 --> 00:39:29,820 And so I mean, there needs to be a solution, and I think the solution needs to be negotiated. 359 00:39:29,820 --> 00:39:32,880 Thank you, Yousef. And yeah, if I could just jump in. 360 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:42,600 I think one of the key problems here is really that we have seen over the past six years, really only I remember in 2013, 361 00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:48,840 I think it really started in Tunisia that I was struck by the growing scepticism against political parties, 362 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:57,100 by the people and scepticism that has been amplified on media by the media that has been focussing on the quarrels between the politicians. 363 00:39:57,100 --> 00:40:05,160 So, so so the concept of political parties as mediator of the will of the people has become. 364 00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:11,460 It's become an extremely question and say it has really been feeding into this to the scepticism, 365 00:40:11,460 --> 00:40:20,190 an almost like hatred of political parties and politicians who are increasingly associated with with just their own interest. 366 00:40:20,190 --> 00:40:27,270 And already in 2013 14, I remember people talking and they wish that the army would take over, which back then, 367 00:40:27,270 --> 00:40:34,650 you know, well, a lot of people in Western universities were still celebrating the Tunisian experiment. 368 00:40:34,650 --> 00:40:42,000 So this really very much clashed with the perception of the Tunisian model that we were celebrating here. 369 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:50,940 There's growing scepticism of the of the political system that we have in Tunisia and calls for an alternative. 370 00:40:50,940 --> 00:41:00,700 Increasing talk about just about a third way, something in between the political system that we are having and a strong dictator. 371 00:41:00,700 --> 00:41:10,360 And that, again, I think society is exploiting by trying to introduce some kind of hybrid or competitive authoritarian system. 372 00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,560 Thank you very much. Move now to the questions that are coming in on the Q&A. 373 00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,420 Bob, thank you very much for taking your questions. 374 00:41:16,420 --> 00:41:22,390 We've got a lot of very distinguished and knowledgeable people on North Africa who follow us and follow Tunisia very well. 375 00:41:22,390 --> 00:41:24,370 So delighted to have them join us. 376 00:41:24,370 --> 00:41:32,170 And the first of those is Habib Saleh, who is, many of you will know has been writing on North Africa in the British national press for many years. 377 00:41:32,170 --> 00:41:34,750 Welcome Hebert, and thank you very much for joining us. 378 00:41:34,750 --> 00:41:44,350 And Heather's question is, was the situation before July the 25th in Tunisia sustainable and did it have the ability to self-correct? 379 00:41:44,350 --> 00:41:45,310 And I think happened? 380 00:41:45,310 --> 00:41:52,560 If want to rephrase that, this question is saying, really, was it unavoidable, but something had to happen to the crisis that come to power? 381 00:41:52,560 --> 00:42:01,600 Or was it or did Teesside's intervention actually really interfere in something that we could have actually self-directed again, go faster? 382 00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:05,350 You say first, this is an easy and difficult question. 383 00:42:05,350 --> 00:42:10,240 And actually, I look back at some articles I wrote or some comments I made before July 25th. 384 00:42:10,240 --> 00:42:14,770 At some point I would say, Well, this is not a sustainable situation, and we'll explore that at some point. 385 00:42:14,770 --> 00:42:20,770 They say, Well, this is how democracy works and this status quo, will we stay forever? 386 00:42:20,770 --> 00:42:25,060 But what is sure is that there was a crisis before July 25th. 387 00:42:25,060 --> 00:42:29,020 Everyone was unhappy. I mean, the president would decide something. 388 00:42:29,020 --> 00:42:35,590 The prime minister would decide something against it. The parliament would vote, would vote something and the president would say no. 389 00:42:35,590 --> 00:42:45,640 So there was a blue cash and right. And now a lot of people in each side put their responsibility on the other and there was a blue card. 390 00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:50,410 So I think I think something needed to happen, but something more. 391 00:42:50,410 --> 00:42:52,510 Any elections rather than this. 392 00:42:52,510 --> 00:43:02,790 But this is what what happened and I think what happened is actually the pessimistic scenario and not the natural scenario, which was an election. 393 00:43:02,790 --> 00:43:12,150 And. Yeah, I agree with Yusef that obviously the there was a major crisis which wasn't just about the health crisis, 394 00:43:12,150 --> 00:43:18,070 the economic crisis, that was the political crisis between the president, the prime minister and the head of parliament. 395 00:43:18,070 --> 00:43:22,080 On top of that, there was another major crisis which we haven't actually talked about yet, 396 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:26,850 which was a crisis within the largest political party in Tunisia within and after, 397 00:43:26,850 --> 00:43:32,940 which has to some extent has served as a counterbalance or as the balancing force. 398 00:43:32,940 --> 00:43:37,350 Ever since the Tunisian uprisings and after has always been there. 399 00:43:37,350 --> 00:43:45,090 All other parties have a lot of parties been created, a lot of them a collapse, but not on a win in a way was a stabilising factor. 400 00:43:45,090 --> 00:43:50,490 And this wasn't so much the case anymore this summer for a variety of reasons. 401 00:43:50,490 --> 00:43:59,280 One of them is that the head of another country took the leadership of the parliament, but he's a very controversial figure. 402 00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:06,420 And one of the most or the most distrusted person in Tunisia. So he amplified political crisis. 403 00:44:06,420 --> 00:44:14,430 At the same time, the crisis was also internal with an investor because she was trying to accumulate more power within the party, 404 00:44:14,430 --> 00:44:20,940 didn't want to see the leadership of the party, even though the party charter told him to do so. 405 00:44:20,940 --> 00:44:26,710 So as a result, actor was gradually imploding from the inside. 406 00:44:26,710 --> 00:44:35,220 A lot of statements criticism between rival factions to an extent actor is never seen before in and the entire history it was, 407 00:44:35,220 --> 00:44:41,220 or it is still the biggest crisis and not has ever seen the one force that has, 408 00:44:41,220 --> 00:44:46,890 in a way, stabilised political transformation in Tunisia in the past decade, 409 00:44:46,890 --> 00:44:52,300 even though it has been very much criticised and sometimes rightfully, sometimes not rightfully. 410 00:44:52,300 --> 00:45:01,040 And I think the crisis of Tunisia today is to some extent also reflective of the crisis within another. 411 00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:06,530 Thank you very much. And thank you for saying something about NADA again, you haven't been referred to much in your original presentations, 412 00:45:06,530 --> 00:45:12,740 and they're obviously a crucial part of this jigsaw and that helps explain things very nicely. 413 00:45:12,740 --> 00:45:17,120 Next question we get to somebody else who follows a nose, Tunisia, very well done, is this in line? 414 00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:22,330 Welcome, Danny. Very nice to have you join us. And Danny's question is about the army. 415 00:45:22,330 --> 00:45:28,990 How influential powerful is the Tunisian army today? Unlike Egypt, the army in Tunisia was always marginal to political life. 416 00:45:28,990 --> 00:45:30,100 And indeed, 417 00:45:30,100 --> 00:45:39,400 that was one of the explanations for why the revolution succeeded in Tunisia often stayed and could be army really be able interested to intervene? 418 00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:45,980 And you referred to the army, perhaps go to you first to mention about whether we will see the army introduced, 419 00:45:45,980 --> 00:45:51,760 which is really not played a political role for post-independence history and quite unremarkable in a quite a remarkable way. 420 00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,900 Whether that might change, I think that's a really important question. 421 00:45:55,900 --> 00:46:02,290 Indeed, one of the key questions right now, and I'm not sure I have one very obvious answer to this. 422 00:46:02,290 --> 00:46:08,350 That would be very easy, but I don't. But just to put maybe the rule of the army or demystify a little bit, 423 00:46:08,350 --> 00:46:14,860 I think it has the the degree of neutrality and apolitical position of the Tunisian army. 424 00:46:14,860 --> 00:46:23,050 I do think it has been overstated. There's also been overstated that the army is very weak and other countries with an 425 00:46:23,050 --> 00:46:30,520 army compared to the or as like a fourth army force comparable to the size of Tunisia. 426 00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:36,520 Military coups have happened, so it's not the, you know, Tunisia's army is this week marginalised. 427 00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:44,020 For us, that's the first point I want to make. And the other point is that I want to make is that this is how the army has been misportrayed. 428 00:46:44,020 --> 00:46:56,140 Also during the Tunisian revolution, when the narrative circulated that the army defected from Ben Ali and in a way sided with the Tunisian people, 429 00:46:56,140 --> 00:47:02,920 which is, it's been quoted dozens and dozens of times, but it's unfortunately not what happened. 430 00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:07,930 What actually happened back then is that the army did not do anything because Ben Ali, 431 00:47:07,930 --> 00:47:12,250 at least not until Ben Ali left because Ben Ali had never asked the army. 432 00:47:12,250 --> 00:47:15,250 There were contacts and the officers asked him what to do. 433 00:47:15,250 --> 00:47:26,440 So in a way, the army was following Ben Ali, but until the end, but basically following what he had asked him to do, which is not much at that time. 434 00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:33,760 So where does that leave us? Basically, the army is a very disciplined organisation who like hierarchy. 435 00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:38,620 Many of the officers were appointed by Ben Ali rolls through Ben Ali. 436 00:47:38,620 --> 00:47:44,200 A lot of them are highly sceptical of Islamists, which everyone knows was already talked to. 437 00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:52,660 Some of them. I think already in 2013, with the events in Egypt, some of them it is privately like the idea. 438 00:47:52,660 --> 00:47:59,770 If I may say that, that something similar would happen in Tunisia, but so we don't know what's going to happen in the future. 439 00:47:59,770 --> 00:48:05,080 I'm not saying the army. There's going to be certainly a military dictatorship. I think that would be way too far fetched. 440 00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:13,960 But I do think they had a choice when I it invoked Article 80, which if you read the article, you can you can. 441 00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:17,500 You just mean you don't need to be an expert of constitutional law. 442 00:48:17,500 --> 00:48:21,160 The key is just need to be a simple person like we are. 443 00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:27,850 Read the article and you can see it's not constitutional because the parliament is very clearly the parliament should be in session. 444 00:48:27,850 --> 00:48:33,070 What army did they actually blocked people from entering the parliament? 445 00:48:33,070 --> 00:48:41,320 So basically they decided to follow the orders of Tisci it, even though he was not working any minor legal frame. 446 00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:45,550 And I do think by that, the political neutrality collapsed. 447 00:48:45,550 --> 00:48:51,370 They agreed to follow orders of someone who did not operate any more within the constitutional frame. 448 00:48:51,370 --> 00:48:56,950 So I don't think we can describe the army at this point as neutral or as they have clearly taking sides. 449 00:48:56,950 --> 00:49:01,830 The question is just what they will do in the future. And this I cannot answer. 450 00:49:01,830 --> 00:49:07,460 Thank you, use a few of you. No, I agree with on that. 451 00:49:07,460 --> 00:49:13,790 The army is not that neutral in Tunisia like any country by the end of the day. 452 00:49:13,790 --> 00:49:16,500 It's part of the political spectrum. 453 00:49:16,500 --> 00:49:26,930 But one thing is that even when the parliament, it's one thing with the Tunisian army is that they rarely confront citizens. 454 00:49:26,930 --> 00:49:29,780 So even on July 25th, they were sitting there. 455 00:49:29,780 --> 00:49:37,160 It would tell people not to enter, but they would not shoot on people and for the future when the army is an option, 456 00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:42,800 but also in a place like Tunisia, where police and the minister of Interior are actually very influential. 457 00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:48,380 And for decades, they were the ones actually pulling the strings more than the army itself. 458 00:49:48,380 --> 00:49:56,030 They are another important player then, that can want to take take up more war powers. 459 00:49:56,030 --> 00:50:02,990 But I think one the army today is more powerful than where it was 10 years ago, and so it is actually perhaps as important. 460 00:50:02,990 --> 00:50:07,550 It's a bit more important than here. So there is a balance of power there. 461 00:50:07,550 --> 00:50:17,390 And also, I think if the army or the police, they don't see themselves as being able to control the whole country for a long period of time. 462 00:50:17,390 --> 00:50:23,540 And so so far, I don't see them really moving in and taking power. 463 00:50:23,540 --> 00:50:28,550 But as I've said, I mean, this is this is an open question. 464 00:50:28,550 --> 00:50:36,710 Thank you. You said. This question is, again, dealing with significant actors outside of a formal political realm, 465 00:50:36,710 --> 00:50:40,250 and it deals with this comes from an anonymous anonymously. 466 00:50:40,250 --> 00:50:46,330 She's absolutely fine and it deals with the Yugi team, which is the main trade union federation. 467 00:50:46,330 --> 00:50:52,130 As many of you know, Tunisia well. Tunisia has an extremely powerful trade union movement. 468 00:50:52,130 --> 00:50:56,780 Probably the most powerful in the Arab world, but did play a significant role in the revolution. 469 00:50:56,780 --> 00:51:02,060 And the question is, what do you think the role of the Bugti will be in the next weeks or months? 470 00:51:02,060 --> 00:51:10,370 Both the already made some references. Did they have the ability to slow or even stop Kai side's ascension? 471 00:51:10,370 --> 00:51:15,110 So on the road of the unity, and perhaps you'd like to go first on that? 472 00:51:15,110 --> 00:51:22,130 Yes, sure. So maybe you should start by the position of the utility on what has happened at the beginning, 473 00:51:22,130 --> 00:51:28,910 like many other organisations and political parties, is what actually is mean. 474 00:51:28,910 --> 00:51:36,050 Maybe I should start by clarifying that not one utility, it's a massive organisation, obviously with many different factions. 475 00:51:36,050 --> 00:51:44,630 And so the position right now, what I'm just referring to is the position, the official position, as discussed by the president. 476 00:51:44,630 --> 00:51:46,010 So at the beginning, 477 00:51:46,010 --> 00:51:55,970 the unity was very favourable and nobody was even trying to reach out on my side because what the utility wanted some kind of real 478 00:51:55,970 --> 00:52:03,860 influence on taking a major role within this particular crisis and draughting some kind of movement on how to get out of it. 479 00:52:03,860 --> 00:52:07,400 So they initially declared they supported him, 480 00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:15,680 then they even themselves draughted a roadmap of how they envisioned to get out of the crisis in very detailed way, 481 00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:20,900 similar to they envisioned a similar process that they had together with the quartette. 482 00:52:20,900 --> 00:52:24,530 But even now, of course, they are not engaged with this. 483 00:52:24,530 --> 00:52:32,720 So it's he's very in that sense, I think, not very strategic in the sense that he, 484 00:52:32,720 --> 00:52:41,300 even though forces the political parties or national organisations that strongly spoke out in favour of him at the beginning. 485 00:52:41,300 --> 00:52:49,910 He is not reacting to them and trying to integrate them any way in this political limbo that he actually created. 486 00:52:49,910 --> 00:52:55,580 So. So what we're seeing now is the unity becoming more and more critical of him. 487 00:52:55,580 --> 00:53:05,870 Many people speaking out calling this a coup and being afraid also that we will turn to the times like they were under Ben Ali. 488 00:53:05,870 --> 00:53:11,870 I mean, no one actually really knows Case Sayyid, and that makes him extremely unpredictable. 489 00:53:11,870 --> 00:53:19,370 And I think all the major national organisations and political parties are realising that they placed his hope in this idealistic, 490 00:53:19,370 --> 00:53:25,340 utopian professor and still hoping that he's an idealist as opposed to a dictator. 491 00:53:25,340 --> 00:53:34,940 But I think they're increasingly realising they're actually having to having to deal with an idealist dictator, which is not a contradiction in terms. 492 00:53:34,940 --> 00:53:38,540 Thank you, Youssef. Yeah, actually, on the day, 493 00:53:38,540 --> 00:53:45,890 I think the main reason why they supported ISIS on July 25th is because their grassroots are supportive of feeding their grassroots. 494 00:53:45,890 --> 00:53:51,800 Many of them are very much opposed to another. Most of them work in the public sector. 495 00:53:51,800 --> 00:54:01,010 So have I mean, they have in their system. And I still believe that what Tunisia needs is a strongman and not the parliament and so on and so on. 496 00:54:01,010 --> 00:54:06,170 So the grassroots and also because of this very anti-imperialist narrative and discourse. 497 00:54:06,170 --> 00:54:11,000 So he seduced them now. They had to follow that way. 498 00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,730 I mean, the leadership rigidity. But slowly, 499 00:54:13,730 --> 00:54:23,420 they started criticising him as weeks went by because actually the leadership they feel is aside doesn't necessarily want to deal with them. 500 00:54:23,420 --> 00:54:27,590 As I said, I mean, he alienated almost everyone, and he doesn't. 501 00:54:27,590 --> 00:54:34,670 He considers himself the embodiment of everything right and leanness, et cetera. 502 00:54:34,670 --> 00:54:38,910 And he probably considers some either as corrupt. 503 00:54:38,910 --> 00:54:43,190 So is it that they actually are the leadership opposite that they found itself 504 00:54:43,190 --> 00:54:49,760 sidelined by him and possibly accused by him of all people around him of corruption? 505 00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:58,340 So they are afraid of what will happen if he continues that they are afraid also that if he continues monopolising power, 506 00:54:58,340 --> 00:55:02,390 they won't be able to negotiate with the government as they used to do before, 507 00:55:02,390 --> 00:55:09,660 to get higher wages and better salaries and better conditions for their members who work in the public sector. 508 00:55:09,660 --> 00:55:13,700 So they are worried about what will happen to them. 509 00:55:13,700 --> 00:55:23,630 But now that they see that his popularity may be decreasing, not that much, but some people start questioning what he's doing. 510 00:55:23,630 --> 00:55:28,760 You see that more and more you see more and more strikes organised by you. 511 00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:36,640 It is very. Very small, but it's growing in number, and I think we we spoke about the army or the police, 512 00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:43,060 but I think it is the other big player much more important than any political party and much more. 513 00:55:43,060 --> 00:55:47,920 Mean it has actually a much more solid basis than any political party can do. 514 00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:49,000 It's not political party. 515 00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:59,320 So in the future, I think we will see a kind of we aims to use it more and more vocal against a side and the less popular the East, 516 00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:07,240 the if they will speak up. And once the economic crisis that most people expect gets deeper, 517 00:56:07,240 --> 00:56:13,630 I think that they will have a much important role to play in the country and to obliging him to negotiate 518 00:56:13,630 --> 00:56:20,670 or or we will see some kind of like there between you and the president and whoever is around. 519 00:56:20,670 --> 00:56:26,010 Thank you, use, if we have time for one more question, apologies to all of the wonderful questions. 520 00:56:26,010 --> 00:56:31,390 Great question. It would be nice to extend this session. We have time for one more question. 521 00:56:31,390 --> 00:56:36,720 One last question comes from one of the master's students here Middle East Centre Riley Sanborn. 522 00:56:36,720 --> 00:56:45,360 And Riley's question is prior to the events of July, the expressly anti-democratic and authoritarian, nostalgic party historian Liberal. 523 00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:51,090 The three the story historian party led the opinion polls in a hypothetical next election. 524 00:56:51,090 --> 00:56:56,220 What does this say about the attitudes of the Tunisian public leading into the current crisis? 525 00:56:56,220 --> 00:57:04,090 Does popular support for such a party, but was nostalgic about the past reflects growing anti revolutionary sentiments? 526 00:57:04,090 --> 00:57:09,840 Or is this more a product of popular anti-elite attitudes? 527 00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:13,810 And first? OK, a very long question. 528 00:57:13,810 --> 00:57:22,970 So basically, if I understood correctly, it's about what the rise of of Morsi has to say about the current situation, 529 00:57:22,970 --> 00:57:29,290 so that's probably not doing justice to the question. But yeah, I think um. 530 00:57:29,290 --> 00:57:32,680 And whether or not it was anti-Russian, really sorry. 531 00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:40,060 I might have missed the past, but I think I mean, the rise of I've been most to has in a way foreshadowed. 532 00:57:40,060 --> 00:57:41,650 I mean, it's easy to say in retrospect, 533 00:57:41,650 --> 00:57:48,490 but this has been foreshadowing shadowing this anti-regulatory movement that we're now witnessing, I think for a very long time. 534 00:57:48,490 --> 00:57:52,510 I mean, Morsi has been embodying in a way. 535 00:57:52,510 --> 00:58:01,460 Well, I try to unite the different factions until missionary factions, though not all of them would describe themselves as anti revolutionaries. 536 00:58:01,460 --> 00:58:08,920 That's also important to note. So she is looking or she's trying to unite has long unite. 537 00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:17,920 For example, members of the former ruling party of finale to our city, but also other forces, especially anti Islamist forces. 538 00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:23,810 So, yeah, I mean, these are also the people who many of them are now backing. 539 00:58:23,810 --> 00:58:28,840 Say it. So I think there's a little bit of a continuity in this respect. 540 00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:36,790 And the question is now just what what is actually going to happen with Abdul Morsi and her party? 541 00:58:36,790 --> 00:58:45,100 And I think it's quite interesting how she reacted. And Youssef can maybe tell us more about that, how how this is being played out on the ground. 542 00:58:45,100 --> 00:58:48,580 But the way I've been seeing it is that actually at the beginning, 543 00:58:48,580 --> 00:58:57,310 she took a long time to react because in a way that reflects many of the or reflects 544 00:58:57,310 --> 00:59:02,740 many of the project that she has been striving to achieve herself in Tunisia. 545 00:59:02,740 --> 00:59:06,250 So ideologically, they're very much close, but politically they are competitors. 546 00:59:06,250 --> 00:59:12,280 So put on a very difficult situation because she could not now suddenly say she's not supporting her, 547 00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:19,750 say it because she has been saying for a long time she would like that the Islamists disappear, 548 00:59:19,750 --> 00:59:25,360 and she's been using a lot of extremely violent anti-Islamic rhetoric. 549 00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:29,650 So what we saw after you took power on that, actually, she waited for a long time. 550 00:59:29,650 --> 00:59:32,410 A lot of other political parties already published statements. 551 00:59:32,410 --> 00:59:38,560 She waited, sometimes you need clearly, you needed some time to think about how to approach this very difficult political dilemma. 552 00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:44,710 And then she spoke out in support of him, also expressing the hope that finally, 553 00:59:44,710 --> 00:59:53,110 the Muslim Brotherhood, as she derogatorily calls Anata in that she means that derogatorily. 554 00:59:53,110 --> 00:59:58,900 I'm not saying that I find it derogatory, but it also does not identify the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. 555 00:59:58,900 --> 01:00:04,750 So she in a way, try to celebrate it in a way against the Islamist establishment in Tunisia. 556 01:00:04,750 --> 01:00:12,670 But now now fast forward a few months later, she, like many other people, are also speaking out. 557 01:00:12,670 --> 01:00:19,360 Of course, say it because in the in the in the political future that society is trying to draw here. 558 01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:27,820 There's also no room for a business. He and her fellowship is just room for cageside and the people and everyone else in between is disappearing. 559 01:00:27,820 --> 01:00:33,520 And that poses a problem for all political parties, all tenancies, no matter how close the case. 560 01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:40,960 And that leaves them increasingly isolated and vulnerable, as also outlined in my talk. 561 01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:43,300 Thank you, Youssef. 562 01:00:43,300 --> 01:00:56,650 So I think the main reason why a lot of people supported Morsi before July 25th and why many people support side is not because of their energy. 563 01:00:56,650 --> 01:01:05,230 Is that Muslim or because they're anti democracy perspective, but because they came against another where many Tunisians, 564 01:01:05,230 --> 01:01:12,010 at least if we take those who are supportive of the party dystonia and even class those who are supportive of my side, 565 01:01:12,010 --> 01:01:19,930 we can call them a majority of Tunisians, and that represents the last 10 years represent the ruling power of the last things. 566 01:01:19,930 --> 01:01:27,730 So in a way, I mean, I mentioned earlier the fact that, you know, that was criticised for right or wrong. 567 01:01:27,730 --> 01:01:31,660 Many times a lot of fake news against another. But actually for the majority of Tunisians, 568 01:01:31,660 --> 01:01:39,910 another is representative of those 10 years representative of the state collapse of the economic problems, corruption, et cetera. 569 01:01:39,910 --> 01:01:44,470 And so whoever comes and goes another day would come with him or with her. 570 01:01:44,470 --> 01:01:46,720 And this is actually what happened 10 years ago. 571 01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:53,120 I mean, the reason why many people went out against Ben Ali and because people who are opposed to Ben, 572 01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:57,730 he is because they simply represented something else and different from Ben. 573 01:01:57,730 --> 01:02:04,360 So it would be wrong to describe this as pro-democracy after democracy revolution 82 pollution. 574 01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:11,400 I mean, frankly, another, especially in recent years, and they had alliances with people who would represent the elite. 575 01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:16,340 Of the Ben Ali regime and the people who are known to be corrupt, 576 01:02:16,340 --> 01:02:25,050 then this tornado is not anymore more Revolutionary Party and not also that Islamist classical Islamist party. 577 01:02:25,050 --> 01:02:29,220 But it became an opportunist party that, like all political parties, actually. 578 01:02:29,220 --> 01:02:32,700 And so, as I say to me, for many people, it doesn't represent. 579 01:02:32,700 --> 01:02:39,390 It does embody the last 10 years, the failures of the last 10 years, and then people went for a side and the party story. 580 01:02:39,390 --> 01:02:47,310 And the reason may be why before July 25th is that people did not really see something like what happened in July 20. 581 01:02:47,310 --> 01:02:52,560 So the only option they saw out of another was to go for elections and vote for something else. 582 01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:55,710 And there's something else was the party this morning, Ali. 583 01:02:55,710 --> 01:03:04,020 Now that side of this power grab and that democracy is on standby and that people don't know when the next elections will take place. 584 01:03:04,020 --> 01:03:08,730 Many people who are supportive of party discipline are now supportive of sides. 585 01:03:08,730 --> 01:03:16,290 But again, this is happening now. It's been four months, but in six months from now, I think we'll see a completely different picture. 586 01:03:16,290 --> 01:03:20,130 And now that I is the one who's in charge of everything, 587 01:03:20,130 --> 01:03:27,060 people will blame him for everything because I don't think the socioeconomic situation will improve in the upcoming months. 588 01:03:27,060 --> 01:03:33,180 We will see people criticising him and opposing him in a few months from now, a few years from now, 589 01:03:33,180 --> 01:03:40,660 but not so long the way they are now opposing another and the way they oppose Ben Ali, you. 590 01:03:40,660 --> 01:03:47,650 Thank you, use it. Thank you. I'm afraid the clock is against this, which means we must draw the session to a close, 591 01:03:47,650 --> 01:03:53,590 and I apologise again for all the people who post questions we weren't able to post and we would like to have gone through all of them. 592 01:03:53,590 --> 01:03:58,630 But thank you very much for joining us and I want to thank all two speakers this evening. 593 01:03:58,630 --> 01:04:03,490 And an I had found it a very confusing situation of what had happened since July. 594 01:04:03,490 --> 01:04:06,430 And I feel even though I don't quite understand everything yet, 595 01:04:06,430 --> 01:04:13,390 I feel a lot better equipped to try and understand what is happening in Tunisia and to see how things unfold from here. 596 01:04:13,390 --> 01:04:17,050 So thank you very much to both of you. And thank you to all of you attending. 597 01:04:17,050 --> 01:04:21,160 And I look forward to you joining us on another occasion. Thank you very much and have a very nice evening. 598 01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:35,252 Thank you. Bye bye.