1 00:00:05,220 --> 00:00:14,400 Welcome everyone. My name is Michael Willis, I'm the director of the Middle East Centre here at St. Anthony's College at the University of Oxford, 2 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:20,040 and it gives me great pleasure to welcome you to the Middle East Centre webinar series. 3 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:24,420 This is a new series of events that will be running occasionally to address 4 00:00:24,420 --> 00:00:30,720 significant issues that have arisen recently in the Middle East and North Africa. 5 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:36,240 Now, the main purpose of these seminars is to provide a platform for experts on these 6 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:42,270 issues to discuss and explain what is happening in the region on a particular issue, 7 00:00:42,270 --> 00:00:47,130 and to help put developments in some wider context. 8 00:00:47,130 --> 00:00:56,640 Our first webinar of the year focuses on Tunisia and looks at events that have occurred in the country over the last four months, 9 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:05,580 particularly since July the 26th. That was when President Kayce Saeed announced he was dismissing the government's suspending 10 00:01:05,580 --> 00:01:10,770 the national parliament and lifting the immunity from prosecution for members of Parliament. 11 00:01:10,770 --> 00:01:17,710 Now, this move was welcomed by many in Tunisia as a much needed shake up of the system but have become corrupt and inefficient, 12 00:01:17,710 --> 00:01:26,250 which in signally failed to deal with both the COVID pandemic and Tunisia's deep economic problems. 13 00:01:26,250 --> 00:01:34,020 On the other hand, there were others in Tunisia who saw the move as a dangerous power grab by the president that threatened to uproot the democratic 14 00:01:34,020 --> 00:01:43,740 system that had been put in place in the aftermath of the popular uprising against President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, 15 00:01:43,740 --> 00:01:50,880 and thus in this way, possibly heralding the end of the one democracy that had been put in place as a result of the 16 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:57,420 uprisings of what became known as the Arab Spring that year now form nearly four months on. 17 00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:08,430 This debate continues. And to help explain and understand what has happened, we have invited two of the most prominent commentators on an analysts, 18 00:02:08,430 --> 00:02:14,110 the Tunisian political affairs, to discuss this issue. 19 00:02:14,110 --> 00:02:23,260 Our third speaker will be Yusuf Sharif, Yusuf is a Tunis based political analyst and runs the Columbia Global Centres in Tunis, 20 00:02:23,260 --> 00:02:28,540 the North West, North and West African Research Centre of Columbia University in the States. 21 00:02:28,540 --> 00:02:35,080 He's a member of the Carnegie Civic Activism Network and has worked at a number of leading research centres and think tanks, 22 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:44,880 producing papers and commenting in the media. You regularly see yourself commenting across media in English, French and Arabic. 23 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:50,950 Yusuf Results of the editor of the book The Modern Arab State A Decade of Uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, 24 00:02:50,950 --> 00:03:00,760 which came out just this year. Second speakers Dr. and Wolf, who is a fellow at All Souls College here at the University of Oxford. 25 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:10,900 She is the author of a 2017 book Political Islam in Tunisia The History of Anata, which won the Choice Outstanding Academic Title, 26 00:03:10,900 --> 00:03:21,640 and she's well on my way to a second book based on her PhD thesis, which is entitled Ben Ali's Tunisia Power and Invention in an Authoritarian Regime. 27 00:03:21,640 --> 00:03:30,640 She's forthcoming with Oxford University Press, and so the title we're going to ask and put to both Youssef and Anne is the political 28 00:03:30,640 --> 00:03:36,940 crisis the end of democracy now before I hand over to our speakers and speakers. 29 00:03:36,940 --> 00:03:42,880 I just want to say that we both speakers will be speaking for about half an hour in total. 30 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:53,110 We then will be turning over to questions and discussion. And if you would like to put the question to our speakers, you're very welcome to do so. 31 00:03:53,110 --> 00:04:03,400 If you're see on the barbecue and a question and answer function on Zoom, if you'd click the back, you can enter your question in the box there. 32 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:07,480 And then we will go through back and pick out questions and hopefully you'll get your questions. 33 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:16,330 Asked if we have time in in the session? You're welcome to put your name down or if you're also very welcome to remain anonymous. 34 00:04:16,330 --> 00:04:17,690 Either way is fine by us. 35 00:04:17,690 --> 00:04:25,150 So to please put put it away any questions you have to our speakers and we will discuss it in the second half of the webinar. 36 00:04:25,150 --> 00:04:33,080 So therefore I'm delighted to turn over to our first speaker, Yusuf Sharif, using. 37 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:38,870 Thank you very much, Michael. Hi, everyone. So I will start with a brief introduction. 38 00:04:38,870 --> 00:04:42,560 Go through the socio economic and political roots of the current crisis, 39 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:49,040 expand on the situation of Tunisia today and with the international dimension of this crisis. 40 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:59,030 So to start with, I would say that a decade of democratic transition left Tunisians unhappy about their country's economic and bureaucratic decline, 41 00:04:59,030 --> 00:05:03,530 or how that's how many people perceive the last decade. 42 00:05:03,530 --> 00:05:08,540 They are extremely sceptical of the political and economic elites of the country, 43 00:05:08,540 --> 00:05:15,170 and vocal about what I mean by vocal about it is that thanks to the freedoms gained in the last decade, 44 00:05:15,170 --> 00:05:20,240 Tunisians are allowed to express themselves openly and in the public sphere. 45 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:27,830 So whatever problems there were and there are many of them, they were amplified and debated by everyone. 46 00:05:27,830 --> 00:05:36,680 This doesn't mean that we should neglect the nature of the problems or the structure of nature. 47 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:43,940 So it's obvious that Tunisia's economic situation has deteriorated in the last 10 years. 48 00:05:43,940 --> 00:05:53,390 This has affected most citizens. The pandemic only worsen the issues, and in summer 2021, just a few months ago, 49 00:05:53,390 --> 00:06:02,000 a particularly violent way to Tunisia leaving thousands sick, and that this is the background of president. 50 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:08,360 I say it's July 25th sauerkraut. And here is a short summary of where Tunisia is today. 51 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:17,330 The president has monopolised most powers. Parliament is suspended and so are important articles of the Constitution. 52 00:06:17,330 --> 00:06:25,910 A number of dubious arrests took place and military units have become more active against civilians. 53 00:06:25,910 --> 00:06:31,010 The president happens to be the country's most popular politician and political entity. 54 00:06:31,010 --> 00:06:37,850 In fact, some think that he's more popular than all other politicians and political parties put together. 55 00:06:37,850 --> 00:06:42,980 So again, here and this nuance is important because with all of this happening, 56 00:06:42,980 --> 00:06:52,970 one has to recognise that he is extremely popular and that when he says that he has the popular legitimacy he's not really like. 57 00:06:52,970 --> 00:06:57,620 Tunisia is under pressure by its traditional partners the US, UK, the EU, 58 00:06:57,620 --> 00:07:05,480 most G7 countries, and it is frequently urged to return to the democratic US presidents. 59 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:11,470 However, it seems to have a better reputation amongst the Saudis, the Emiratis, the. 60 00:07:11,470 --> 00:07:15,700 But not necessarily strong support. And that will come back to this. 61 00:07:15,700 --> 00:07:27,120 The Algerians, the French and the Italians are also more willing to listen to various views, but also without fully backing him neither. 62 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:35,470 And most importantly, the country's economic problems haven't ended on July 25th, 2021. 63 00:07:35,470 --> 00:07:41,320 Now, day after day, idealism is being slowly replaced by reality. 64 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:47,650 The president, who has all the powers, needs to deliver, but he's facing a pile of issues. 65 00:07:47,650 --> 00:07:53,290 And from what we can see, discontent is mounting in the streets. 66 00:07:53,290 --> 00:08:00,730 Now I can go maybe later in the Q&A and see some figures about the economic 67 00:08:00,730 --> 00:08:06,070 problems that that extend the economic problems that the country is going through. 68 00:08:06,070 --> 00:08:16,270 And it's actually if you take if you take a graph between 2010 and 2021, you see very clear decline on all aspects. 69 00:08:16,270 --> 00:08:24,250 So that actually explains why many, so many people feel unhappy about the last days. 70 00:08:24,250 --> 00:08:28,930 Their economic situation really went down. 71 00:08:28,930 --> 00:08:40,420 And because of again, of the freedoms of expression they gained, they can complain about it to each other and see actually the mess in which they are. 72 00:08:40,420 --> 00:08:46,840 And therefore all Tunisians are aware of the big economic problem that the country is going through. 73 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:55,460 And of course, the first ones to blame are the rulers, the elite political elite, the economic elite. 74 00:08:55,460 --> 00:09:05,140 And again, this is what happened. So there is also a feeling amongst the population that corruption is endemic and that corruption is breeding. 75 00:09:05,140 --> 00:09:14,890 This is, of course, this was the case before 2011, but it continued, and most Tunisians have the perception, at least I do not have. 76 00:09:14,890 --> 00:09:25,450 I don't know if that's true, but at least the perception is that corruption became much more widespread after the revolution after 2011 than before. 77 00:09:25,450 --> 00:09:35,860 So consequently, we see a large section of the population for whom democracy is synonymous with state collapse and by democracy. 78 00:09:35,860 --> 00:09:41,560 I mean the constant problem in political parties, political debates, constitutional, etc. 79 00:09:41,560 --> 00:09:47,020 So think of the Tunisian constitution, but especially in the West, 80 00:09:47,020 --> 00:09:54,340 people praised as one of the most advanced constitutions in the region or even in the world. 81 00:09:54,340 --> 00:10:05,290 And so and so many conferences and so many stories were made about this, this constitution and so many articles, both academic and journalistic. 82 00:10:05,290 --> 00:10:09,760 Then you go and ask Tunisians and they would tell you, No, no, no, no, this constitution is nonsense. 83 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:17,230 This constitution is useless, and they would tell you about corruption, etc. Again, here I am talking not about all Tunisians, 84 00:10:17,230 --> 00:10:27,370 but a majority of Tunisians and and and and definitely not the supporters of another or of a few political parties, 85 00:10:27,370 --> 00:10:34,660 but a majority of Tunisians school. Today we see them supporting president, both sides. 86 00:10:34,660 --> 00:10:39,400 So these are actually the citizens who celebrated the president's power grab 87 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:44,860 and who tell you that whatever happens now and whatever happens in the future, 88 00:10:44,860 --> 00:10:49,930 it can't be worse than where the country was three months ago. 89 00:10:49,930 --> 00:10:56,390 But they will tell you that I'm not sure they will say the same thing in three or six months from now. 90 00:10:56,390 --> 00:11:07,430 Now moving from the economic and social situation to the political situation today we see mean all of them are related, obviously. 91 00:11:07,430 --> 00:11:12,560 Today we see the army encircling the parliament and we see the president ruling by decrees. 92 00:11:12,560 --> 00:11:19,340 So we are tempted to describe the situation in black and white democracy versus authoritarianism. 93 00:11:19,340 --> 00:11:26,360 But this is misleading because political parties in Tunisia represent only a few handful of protests, 94 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:33,740 even in that's that was seen as so powerful and influential proved actually very weak. 95 00:11:33,740 --> 00:11:39,290 When you look on and on July 25th, when you know when the power grab happened, 96 00:11:39,290 --> 00:11:45,650 we haven't seen what we saw in Turkey, for instance, during the failed coup against Erdogan. 97 00:11:45,650 --> 00:11:54,050 We haven't seen and now the partisans in the streets calling for a return of the parliament and so on. 98 00:11:54,050 --> 00:11:58,880 We haven't seen another party since predicting another. So even if not approved, 99 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:07,250 actually a much weaker political party than most observers and the parliament is actually 100 00:12:07,250 --> 00:12:11,570 home to many employees who are completely disconnected from their constituencies. 101 00:12:11,570 --> 00:12:15,410 And the governments that ruled Tunisia in the last decade were mostly the result 102 00:12:15,410 --> 00:12:19,490 of informal negotiations that had little to do with the elections results. 103 00:12:19,490 --> 00:12:24,340 Just take the example of the last Prime Minister Masisi. He will. 104 00:12:24,340 --> 00:12:30,200 He disappeared for a few days after July 25th. And as far as I know, no one really knew. 105 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,800 For him there were no demonstrations calling for his return. 106 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:41,540 No, not even a Facebook campaign asking for for him to reappear. 107 00:12:41,540 --> 00:12:48,350 So the political parties and the economy interest groups that have controlled Tunisian politics during the last decade, 108 00:12:48,350 --> 00:12:52,400 they ignored the fact that election after election year after year, 109 00:12:52,400 --> 00:13:03,410 the number of voters decreased and the number of those polled and claiming that they feel underrepresented by the political class continued to grow. 110 00:13:03,410 --> 00:13:09,800 And this is a reminder that the country was actually facing a major crisis of legitimacy and political legitimacy. 111 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:14,210 On July 25th, when the president decided to act now. 112 00:13:14,210 --> 00:13:19,520 Does it mean that the president has more legitimacy than those? Not necessarily. 113 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:25,820 The president is extremely popular today, but that's because the ruling clique, he is widely hated. 114 00:13:25,820 --> 00:13:30,860 And also because Tunisia was suffering from the COVID pandemic this summer, 115 00:13:30,860 --> 00:13:36,680 as I mentioned earlier and in the vaccine scheme by the end of July and in August. 116 00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:46,130 So in the perception of many Tunisians side, you see President Sign, it is seen as the one who brought the vaccines and who saved lives. 117 00:13:46,130 --> 00:13:52,520 But I think once the euphoria is over, once the economic realities of the country come to the fore, 118 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:57,290 the president himself will have to confront the fact that he'd like to see this and this 119 00:13:57,290 --> 00:14:05,330 doesn't have any real constituency and that his legitimacy may vanish in a matter of days. 120 00:14:05,330 --> 00:14:13,220 So now going to Tunisia today to legitimise his move, 121 00:14:13,220 --> 00:14:19,370 president side uses the populist narrative of speaking in the name of the people and acting for the people. 122 00:14:19,370 --> 00:14:22,640 And as I said, he's indeed very so. 123 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:33,500 In the last three months, there were a number of actions that were taken with the umbrella of being taken in the name of the people. 124 00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:37,010 So a lot of dormant corruption cases were reopened. 125 00:14:37,010 --> 00:14:48,710 Several and politicians and businessmen face trial or are in jail, and actually many of these trials were shelved or postponed. 126 00:14:48,710 --> 00:14:57,740 In the last decade, because of political settlements and after a few weeks, I mean, for a few weeks after his power grab, 127 00:14:57,740 --> 00:15:02,820 there were travel bans imposed on many politicians and businessmen without further explanation. 128 00:15:02,820 --> 00:15:13,640 It was somewhat arbitrary. But by the way, they were released, assistant foreign criticism is came into the country by the president supporters. 129 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:22,790 So this is the atmosphere, actually. Also recent just recently there is a group called Eunice's against the coup. 130 00:15:22,790 --> 00:15:31,400 They wanted to set up a press conference and then they were told that they cannot hold a press conference. 131 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:37,370 These days, there is a garbage crisis in something Tunisia and its facts around facts. 132 00:15:37,370 --> 00:15:43,820 And the response of the president was to send in the police, which used teargas. 133 00:15:43,820 --> 00:15:48,770 Actually, this was the first test of a side to face an angry mob. 134 00:15:48,770 --> 00:15:56,800 And he reacted. Just like his predecessors. So there are a lot of troubles happening now in the country, 135 00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:02,230 and the demonstrations are expected to continue and to increase over time whether 136 00:16:02,230 --> 00:16:06,580 side will continue to refuse dialogue and use the police to find that information. 137 00:16:06,580 --> 00:16:17,210 We still don't know. Now on on a slightly more positive note, we see that there is a civilian government that was just appointed, 138 00:16:17,210 --> 00:16:26,950 not security government and not then not a government that responds to political whims of this or that group. 139 00:16:26,950 --> 00:16:34,060 We see also that there are no attacks in the country. I mean, again, compare with Egypt in 2014. 140 00:16:34,060 --> 00:16:43,990 You can compare it on barely no immediate or very serious threat to the freedom of expression. 141 00:16:43,990 --> 00:16:48,940 You know, for instance, the day after the Al-Jazeera offices were raided, 142 00:16:48,940 --> 00:16:54,490 but Al Jazeera journalists are free to operate and broadcast live from Tunisia. 143 00:16:54,490 --> 00:17:02,050 The Tunisians against the coup were not able to sustain their press conference in the hall. 144 00:17:02,050 --> 00:17:03,970 They were able to do it in the streets, 145 00:17:03,970 --> 00:17:10,930 and they actually got more publicity because they were in the street and cameras were filming and it was Typekit, Facebook and so on. 146 00:17:10,930 --> 00:17:15,940 There are regular empty side demonstrations organised in the country, 147 00:17:15,940 --> 00:17:23,620 and usually today the main labour union has resumed its strikes and demonstrations without being harassed. 148 00:17:23,620 --> 00:17:31,600 So to answer the title of this webinar, I would say that democracy hasn't ended yet in Tunisia, 149 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:38,890 and I will just finish with the international dimension. I think I only have maybe two minutes left. 150 00:17:38,890 --> 00:17:48,310 We can discuss this later, maybe the Q&A. So I would say that while no Western government power photographed coup or impose sanctions, 151 00:17:48,310 --> 00:17:53,830 we see that Tunisia is under pressure to revert back to its democratic path. 152 00:17:53,830 --> 00:18:02,320 As I say by the U.S., the EU, especially Germany, the IMF and World Bank, 153 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:14,320 and all and most of the G7 countries are kind of worried about where Tunisia is going and they are exerting pressure on the country 154 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:23,380 and society is actually the president and his supporters are very are easily offended by the criticism coming from abroad. 155 00:18:23,380 --> 00:18:32,320 But again, another another nuance here. He's very careful not to preach, not to break Tunisia's ties with these foreign partners. 156 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:40,210 So we haven't seen any ambassador being thrown at no embassies closed and no projects were cancelled. 157 00:18:40,210 --> 00:18:46,660 Negotiations with the IMF continue. The appointed government is rather cosmopolitan. 158 00:18:46,660 --> 00:18:52,960 I mean, the ministers are rather cosmopolitan. We don't see radical nationalists or radical revolutionaries. 159 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:59,650 I mean, maybe some of them are, but the majority of them are more cosmopolitan figures who lived abroad, 160 00:18:59,650 --> 00:19:07,140 worked with international organisations and so on. So this is this is one now. 161 00:19:07,140 --> 00:19:12,330 These are this is these are the angry ones now, the ones who are not very unhappy. 162 00:19:12,330 --> 00:19:20,130 We see that the Saudis, the Emiratis, the Egyptians keep praising president fired on their media outlets. 163 00:19:20,130 --> 00:19:25,650 They send a laudatory invoice to Inusah in the days following the photographs, 164 00:19:25,650 --> 00:19:33,960 and they have also sent important COVID aid and vaccines in July and August, and they actually through that. 165 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:40,110 They contributed in modelling the image of the saviour that the president enjoys today. 166 00:19:40,110 --> 00:19:49,350 The Algerians, the French and the Italians seem to also give side best, they barely issue any criticism, 167 00:19:49,350 --> 00:19:54,450 whether another nuance here three months after four months after the power grab. 168 00:19:54,450 --> 00:20:03,150 We haven't seen any one of these countries offering Tunisia and the billions it actually the billions of dollars it needs to pass the winter. 169 00:20:03,150 --> 00:20:11,740 Their support is so far moral and not physical, if I can say, which means that actually each side is not their guy. 170 00:20:11,740 --> 00:20:19,650 He's his own guy, a very stubborn nationalist leader with a very idealist mindset who is hard to co-opt. 171 00:20:19,650 --> 00:20:27,480 This leaves Tunisia in some no man's land. Neither is Norwest, but desperately in need of support. 172 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:35,700 It's neither a democracy nor an authoritarian regime, but it's somewhere in agrees on until when can this last? 173 00:20:35,700 --> 00:20:40,000 This is an open question. Thank you very much. 174 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:48,460 Thank you very much, Yousef, for a remarkably clear and concise treatment of what has happened over the last four months. 175 00:20:48,460 --> 00:20:59,080 And thank you particularly for adding more nuance. As you indicated, a lot of the coverage and discussion has fallen very clearly into one or two, 176 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:05,740 one or two rather polarised positions, seeing it as something very good or something very damaging, and it's very good to hear it. 177 00:21:05,740 --> 00:21:09,340 Actually, it's a much more makes them much more nuanced picture. 178 00:21:09,340 --> 00:21:15,370 So thank you very much. Now turn to and pose the same question to you. 179 00:21:15,370 --> 00:21:21,600 Is it the end the end of democracy in Tunisia and. Thank you very much, Michael. 180 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:30,960 I'm afraid I'm a little bit more in the more damaging camp, so little bit more critical than Yusef and I will explain in a minute. 181 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:36,170 Why just going to start the presentation? 182 00:21:36,170 --> 00:21:45,920 So I'm going to focus my talk on Karzai at his rallies and political project and and specific, I'm going to focus on three main points. 183 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:53,930 The first is Karzai, its background and rise to power. Second, his political vision and strategies of power consolidation. 184 00:21:53,930 --> 00:22:02,900 And lastly, the challenges he faces and possible future scenarios. 185 00:22:02,900 --> 00:22:07,880 But first, I would like to start with a few quotes of him, and I'm not going to discuss them in much detail, 186 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:15,260 but just wanted to put them up as I do think they can be quite well his political ambitions and ideas. 187 00:22:15,260 --> 00:22:19,910 First in April, so even before what I would refer to as the coup. 188 00:22:19,910 --> 00:22:26,390 Karzai had claimed I'm the commander of the security forces, not just of the army. 189 00:22:26,390 --> 00:22:28,340 However, according to the Constitution, 190 00:22:28,340 --> 00:22:35,750 he is just a commander of the army and the National Guard and the police under the command of the prime minister. 191 00:22:35,750 --> 00:22:39,940 But Karzai not accept this division of power. 192 00:22:39,940 --> 00:22:47,620 Then in June, so again, before the coup, he talked about his plan to change the Constitution and to install a presidential system. 193 00:22:47,620 --> 00:22:52,880 And you stated that they are those who will adhere to the new political system as well. 194 00:22:52,880 --> 00:23:02,570 Those who would persist in the fallacious methods be sure that they would end up in the dustbin of history. 195 00:23:02,570 --> 00:23:07,430 In his 25 July statement, when he announced he had taken over power and suspend parliament, 196 00:23:07,430 --> 00:23:15,590 the government he threatened if anyone fires a single bullet against the security forces there will respond by a rain of bullets. 197 00:23:15,590 --> 00:23:22,100 And a month later, he declared that the exceptional measures would be extended until the new order. 198 00:23:22,100 --> 00:23:30,680 And I said, of course, being the one deciding what the new order is and when it will be achieved, and I personally don't think there's anyone, 199 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:40,400 anyone much ambiguity about Karzai its intentions, namely that he wants to rule alone and that he doesn't accept any opposition to his rule. 200 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:48,080 Indeed, he even threatens to use force against any challengers. 201 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:57,890 And I would just like to briefly revisit Science 2009 electoral campaign, so the slight the picture you see is from 2019. 202 00:23:57,890 --> 00:24:08,100 And my main point here is that he never really hit his intentions to instigate deep changes to Tunisia's political institutions. 203 00:24:08,100 --> 00:24:15,070 And just a little bit of background for those of you who are not very familiar with Tunisian politics in 2019, 204 00:24:15,070 --> 00:24:18,270 OK, say it basically Typekit out of nowhere. 205 00:24:18,270 --> 00:24:27,810 He's a professor in constitutional law and ran a grassroots campaign back then with almost no advertisement and no party apparatus behind him. 206 00:24:27,810 --> 00:24:35,730 His key message were youth empowerment, the fight against corruption, socioeconomic distribution, redistribution. 207 00:24:35,730 --> 00:24:45,960 And he portrayed himself as the people, as the president of the people of the disenfranchised and to marginalised, especially young Tunisians. 208 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,530 And the fact that he was not part of the political establishment. 209 00:24:49,530 --> 00:24:54,570 And have you spent any money at all on campaigning was seen as evidence that he's trustworthy, 210 00:24:54,570 --> 00:25:03,320 clean and honest, very different from how the political elite at that at that time was seen by the people. 211 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:12,800 And the main controversies back then were really about his conservative positions on a number of issues, such as women's rights. 212 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:25,270 He spoke out against equality in inheritance, homosexuality, which he wanted to criminalise, as well as his support of the death penalty. 213 00:25:25,270 --> 00:25:32,800 But interestingly, in his positions on Tunisia's political system did not draw as much attention back then at all, 214 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:37,360 and this was despite the fact that he openly said that he would like to change the Constitution, 215 00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:41,890 introduce a political system and change the electoral laws. 216 00:25:41,890 --> 00:25:51,940 However, these ideas were back then commonly portrayed in a way as yet the idealist, the utopian beliefs of a professor. 217 00:25:51,940 --> 00:26:00,230 And I think this image there today very much prevails amongst some sectors in Tunisia. 218 00:26:00,230 --> 00:26:04,460 And I did find the testimony of one of his former students in 2019, 219 00:26:04,460 --> 00:26:10,700 which you can see on the bottom right corner of the slide, I found it actually very interesting. 220 00:26:10,700 --> 00:26:16,790 The student described becauseit in 2019 as a man haunted by an idea who has some 221 00:26:16,790 --> 00:26:24,780 reservations about representative democracy as it is practised and experienced in Tunisia. 222 00:26:24,780 --> 00:26:29,430 And I did find that A. appointed a very powerful because it does convey the 223 00:26:29,430 --> 00:26:34,740 extent to which political change has been sent to him for a very long time. 224 00:26:34,740 --> 00:26:40,020 It's almost as if the student wants to tell us he has been obsessed by it. 225 00:26:40,020 --> 00:26:48,840 And really, what has characterised Tisci ever since you took power was his complete unwillingness to compromise on his political vision. 226 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:49,200 Indeed, 227 00:26:49,200 --> 00:27:01,050 an unwillingness to engage with any other political tendencies on anything at all or to even engage with them in any meaningful or constructive way. 228 00:27:01,050 --> 00:27:12,230 And I think what we saw on the 25th of July, when he suspended Parliament of Parliament, the government is in a way. 229 00:27:12,230 --> 00:27:21,920 The culmination of this tendency of no compromise and engagement with other political tendencies. 230 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:28,880 So now fast forward Science and 25th of July. 231 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:39,470 On the top left, you see him surrounded by top security officers as he announced that he has suspended parliament and the government on the top right. 232 00:27:39,470 --> 00:27:54,030 You can see him doing a speech to the public while holds up some some posters featuring scenes of disturbance and quarrels in parliament, 233 00:27:54,030 --> 00:28:01,520 and he uses that to show to what extent in peace and instigators of violence, 234 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:02,300 according to him, 235 00:28:02,300 --> 00:28:12,710 and basically to justify him shutting parliament down and referring to it as useless and not representative of the people on the bottom left. 236 00:28:12,710 --> 00:28:21,020 You can see ProCase side protesters and the picture on the bottom right I find particularly interesting. 237 00:28:21,020 --> 00:28:29,270 You can see Karzai at behind and with the new Prime Minister Natalegawa then and I find a symbolism 238 00:28:29,270 --> 00:28:38,150 of this picture actually very powerful and interesting to say it behind his beautiful desk, 239 00:28:38,150 --> 00:28:42,530 looking very much presidential like and the prime minister sitting in front of him, 240 00:28:42,530 --> 00:28:52,100 looking up on a simple chair almost as if she was a student looking at a professor pool waiting for instructions and guidance. 241 00:28:52,100 --> 00:29:01,210 And I do think that reflects the dynamics between the two of them very well. 242 00:29:01,210 --> 00:29:09,820 As Joseph mentioned, parricide remains extremely popular with the people in this power grab was initially when called by many political actors. 243 00:29:09,820 --> 00:29:14,170 Indeed, according to the latest polls, which I just checked before. 244 00:29:14,170 --> 00:29:22,150 About 80 percent of the people are still satisfied with him today, and that's really, really massive and important. 245 00:29:22,150 --> 00:29:30,760 And this is also due to what can be referred to as populist strategy of power consolidation. 246 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:34,690 I say it portrays and says of the leader of Tunisia's revolution. 247 00:29:34,690 --> 00:29:38,050 He says that the previous political leaders hijacked the revolution, 248 00:29:38,050 --> 00:29:45,820 and he wants to finally do justice to people's revolutionary demands to denounces political parties as they are corrupt, 249 00:29:45,820 --> 00:29:51,490 and he vouchers to introduce an element of local democracy that gives power back to the people. 250 00:29:51,490 --> 00:29:57,040 Supposedly, of course, I don't think what we're seeing here right now is really going into the democratic 251 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:02,830 direction because they had really positioned themselves as the spokesman of the people. 252 00:30:02,830 --> 00:30:11,800 The only one who knows what the people want and the way he thinks he is, the one who can read and realise people's demands. 253 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:17,140 So when people ask him what is political project is he commonly replies, 254 00:30:17,140 --> 00:30:22,690 I want what the people want if he is being asked a follow up question, what do the people want? 255 00:30:22,690 --> 00:30:28,000 He says that people know what they want. So not very useful. 256 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:36,370 He also plays on people's nationalist sentiments and commonly denounces foreign interference, as Yusuf has mentioned this well. 257 00:30:36,370 --> 00:30:45,070 And of course, this nationalism or revolution of populism are common strategies of domination amongst wannabe dictators or strongmen, 258 00:30:45,070 --> 00:30:52,060 especially those who take power amid wider collective economic crisis and promise to correct past wrongs. 259 00:30:52,060 --> 00:31:03,190 So it's really not that exceptional in this respect. And I think I say it also implies another common strategy of power consolidation, 260 00:31:03,190 --> 00:31:09,940 which is the instigation of confusion and general vagueness about what comes next. 261 00:31:09,940 --> 00:31:16,180 Some people often say that, you know, he could say it might not know him, said what he wants and what's next. 262 00:31:16,180 --> 00:31:23,410 But I think he has shown very clearly over the past weeks, months and even years that he knows what he wants. 263 00:31:23,410 --> 00:31:30,930 He has always envisioned a strong presidency, and he should not be underestimated because of that. 264 00:31:30,930 --> 00:31:39,450 And he's deliberately instigating, to some extent, a confusion about his project, because if by some time and when people are confused, 265 00:31:39,450 --> 00:31:47,190 they are also not organising as forcefully against him because they still have hope that something positive will come out of this crisis. 266 00:31:47,190 --> 00:31:54,300 And even now is facing increasing opposition from the political class and from some civil society groups, 267 00:31:54,300 --> 00:32:03,330 many key actors are still waiting for something to happen. They are hoping that this will end in the way they they want. 268 00:32:03,330 --> 00:32:11,010 But scientists been using this time to place many of his allies in strategic positions to pursue structural changes, 269 00:32:11,010 --> 00:32:21,450 nominating a prime minister and a government that he largely controls, as well as imprisoning some opposition figures. 270 00:32:21,450 --> 00:32:30,310 So the question is really what is this plan? What kind of regime does you want and what kind of regime is she trying to construct? 271 00:32:30,310 --> 00:32:35,480 And obviously, it's too early to be sure in the next weeks and months will be pivotal in that respect, 272 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:42,490 but I do think he has some kind of a what we call hybrid or competitive authoritarian regime in mind. 273 00:32:42,490 --> 00:32:52,510 So an autocratic system that retains some democratic features, but that does not pose any real challenge to the leader, so to himself. 274 00:32:52,510 --> 00:33:00,190 So this could, for example, consist of introducing some kind of local democratic elections, even presidential elections, 275 00:33:00,190 --> 00:33:08,290 which you would obviously be certain to win at this stage given the massive popular support he has. 276 00:33:08,290 --> 00:33:16,980 The real question really is. This week, I say it succeed in his project. 277 00:33:16,980 --> 00:33:22,770 And I've heard a lot of comparisons between Egypt and Tunisia over the past weeks and months, 278 00:33:22,770 --> 00:33:25,890 and there are some obvious parallels in the sense that in both countries, 279 00:33:25,890 --> 00:33:34,830 the coups that happened after the other Arab uprisings had the backing of the army and of the range of anti-democratic and anti Islamist forces. 280 00:33:34,830 --> 00:33:43,290 But I also do things like Youssef also mentioned that the comparison in many ways is limited to main political actors in Tunisia and Egypt. 281 00:33:43,290 --> 00:33:50,670 Very different. The power balance is different, and the main political stakeholders are very distinct. 282 00:33:50,670 --> 00:33:57,840 However, I do think that the comparison between cageside and Ben Ali when Ben Ali took power is quite insightful, 283 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:04,230 as will it can reveal some of the main challenges that lie ahead for case. 284 00:34:04,230 --> 00:34:14,670 Just some background here in 1987, but Ali also conducted what back then was similarly termed a constitutional coup that was supported by the army, 285 00:34:14,670 --> 00:34:24,060 and Ben Ali back then was also a relative political newcomer. And he took power during a time of wider political and economic crisis. 286 00:34:24,060 --> 00:34:29,910 So though obviously not as accurate as it was in Tunisia, the summer. 287 00:34:29,910 --> 00:34:39,600 And similar to Sayid, Ben Ali employed a rhetoric of wanting to correct past political and economic runs, 288 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:48,060 and the main difference between the two of them was really that I say it obviously is very popular and Ben Ali has a military background. 289 00:34:48,060 --> 00:34:53,200 It's very significant. However, how did Ben Ali consolidate power? 290 00:34:53,200 --> 00:35:02,960 What did you do? He employed a very different approach, he got a very broad support coalition that included all main political actors, 291 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:12,380 the utility workers union, the ruling party, secular opposition parties, even representative of the Islamist movement. 292 00:35:12,380 --> 00:35:20,480 So Ben Ali decided to reach out to all of them, and once he had accumulated enough power the space of two years, 293 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:29,450 he began to slowly crack down on his main challenges. And from a competitive research and also attend politics with politics, 294 00:35:29,450 --> 00:35:37,750 we know that such broad coalitions are most conducive to power consolidation of strongman or wannabe dictators. 295 00:35:37,750 --> 00:35:48,850 However, I say it is very different in that respect. I say it is vilifying indeed slandering all major political parties, national organisations, 296 00:35:48,850 --> 00:35:54,190 calling them, for example, drunken and denouncing them as corrupt and liars. 297 00:35:54,190 --> 00:36:02,350 Even those that initially supported him. And as a result is becoming increasingly political, isolated. 298 00:36:02,350 --> 00:36:07,720 And this will be a major challenge, especially in the medium and long term. 299 00:36:07,720 --> 00:36:16,010 I'm not aware of any main political party or national organisations still supporting them. 300 00:36:16,010 --> 00:36:26,330 And I say it will not be able to approach this popular support base forever and part of this political isolation also, 301 00:36:26,330 --> 00:36:30,260 he's acknowledges himself that he's not good with numbers and the economy. 302 00:36:30,260 --> 00:36:35,070 He does not have a magic solution to solve Tunisia's economic problems. 303 00:36:35,070 --> 00:36:41,330 And if anything, the current political crisis will just make him much worse. 304 00:36:41,330 --> 00:36:53,280 And this, in turn, does make his political future very much dependent on the support he receives from the army. 305 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:59,500 And to conclude, I would like to outline three main scenarios for the future. 306 00:36:59,500 --> 00:37:10,210 The most optimistic one and the one, I believe use of hope will happen is that domestic and international pressure will increase and 307 00:37:10,210 --> 00:37:16,300 gradually force decided to come to agree to some kind of roadmap with all key political actors, 308 00:37:16,300 --> 00:37:28,340 and so a solution to the crisis would be found. However, I have to say that at this point in time, he has categorically refused such a path. 309 00:37:28,340 --> 00:37:32,180 The second one is that you will consolidate more and more power, 310 00:37:32,180 --> 00:37:40,910 and we will see more and more restrictions on political freedoms, especially as his popularity will gradually fade. 311 00:37:40,910 --> 00:37:45,230 Basically, he will join the ranks of populist dictators around the world. 312 00:37:45,230 --> 00:37:55,650 And judging from the picture on the slide, which has been circulating on social media, that's what some Tunisians seem to believe is happening. 313 00:37:55,650 --> 00:37:59,610 And in a third scenario, the army takes over. 314 00:37:59,610 --> 00:38:08,010 This could happen, for example, if major violence erupts between Karzai supporters and the opposition or simply the economic crisis. 315 00:38:08,010 --> 00:38:16,680 We're worse, and so we see many more instances of social unrest and demonstrations as is happening and slex quite something at the moment. 316 00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:25,380 So officers might decide to step in in this scenario, even if just for a transitional period. 317 00:38:25,380 --> 00:38:33,420 So as you can see, a little bit more bleak, my presentation and my talk compared to Yousef's and I will leave it here for now. 318 00:38:33,420 --> 00:38:39,010 But I look very much forward to discussing with all of you during the Q&A. 319 00:38:39,010 --> 00:38:45,850 Thank you very much indeed. And Kai, say it has been a bit of a mystery figure, 320 00:38:45,850 --> 00:38:55,600 I think even since he was elected and you've gone some way to trying to demystify who he is and what he's about, so thank you very much. 321 00:38:55,600 --> 00:39:04,480 We now move on to looking questions and answers, and I encourage you again to use the questionnaire as a function if you want to 322 00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:08,500 pose a question to liberal speakers or a more general question to both speakers. 323 00:39:08,500 --> 00:39:13,700 So I do encourage you to do that. So that's in the Q&A. You just click on the Q&A function. 324 00:39:13,700 --> 00:39:17,050 You can then type in type in your question. 325 00:39:17,050 --> 00:39:27,700 I would like to begin with the question I have about speakers, and it comes back to something that was a quote from an ice site said. 326 00:39:27,700 --> 00:39:33,970 And he said he seems to have reservations about representative democracy as it's practised in Tunisia. 327 00:39:33,970 --> 00:39:40,660 Now it seems to me that this reservation is substantially shared with a large part of the Tunisian population. 328 00:39:40,660 --> 00:39:46,330 They both have reservations about representative democracy as it's practised in Tunisia. 329 00:39:46,330 --> 00:39:50,090 And my question is really to focus on that last emphasis. 330 00:39:50,090 --> 00:39:59,950 Is it a reservation about representative democracy in the way it's being practised and introduced in Tunisia over the last 10 years? 331 00:39:59,950 --> 00:40:07,360 Or is it actually a more profound reservation they share about representative democracy as a way of running Tunisia? 332 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,900 In other words, it's not just the way it's been done, it's just the general principle. 333 00:40:10,900 --> 00:40:14,980 And if so, what sort of ways out of this guy site has a view of what? 334 00:40:14,980 --> 00:40:20,950 What could replace this more traditional form of representative democracy? 335 00:40:20,950 --> 00:40:26,390 So perhaps go, go, go first to use on that, you said. So. 336 00:40:26,390 --> 00:40:31,770 The issue here is that no one is actually giving an alternate. 337 00:40:31,770 --> 00:40:41,070 Yes, he has reservations. Many people have reservations, but then ask them, Why do you suggest? 338 00:40:41,070 --> 00:40:43,740 What you hear usually is, oh, we need the presidential system, 339 00:40:43,740 --> 00:40:53,790 because that's how Tunisia was ruled for most of its post-colonial era, and many consider that it works. 340 00:40:53,790 --> 00:41:02,340 But then is there something like a very clear guidebook on where we're going and how we should go there? 341 00:41:02,340 --> 00:41:06,210 No. Even President side said it doesn't. 342 00:41:06,210 --> 00:41:15,180 If you look for his programme during the elections, you have some speeches, but you don't have something concrete. 343 00:41:15,180 --> 00:41:21,630 This is not so the plan that many people are talking about today doesn't exist. 344 00:41:21,630 --> 00:41:28,200 It's being put in place now, probably by some groups around him, but it's not there yet. 345 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:33,000 While the parliament, the parliamentarian, 346 00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:45,700 parliamentary or parliamentary system that we had is something that a lot of experts sat together and put in place and and. 347 00:41:45,700 --> 00:41:50,390 Yeah, and so that's how how it was created, so it's not something that was imposed. 348 00:41:50,390 --> 00:41:56,660 Like many people who are critical of the period before the United States. 349 00:41:56,660 --> 00:42:04,960 So my my fear here, when we when many Tunisians say that they want another political system. 350 00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:12,670 My fear is that one there is nothing clear concrete. So the thing that they're heading to that the country is heading to is one and 351 00:42:12,670 --> 00:42:20,440 describe something of the more maybe hybrid democracy or hybrid authoritarian system, 352 00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:26,080 but actually something that is less democratic than where we were and as we know from many examples in the world. 353 00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:30,070 You can take any dictatorship, call it a democracy and move on. 354 00:42:30,070 --> 00:42:35,380 But actually, it's a dictatorship. I mean, China or North Korea or even Russia, they call themselves democracy. 355 00:42:35,380 --> 00:42:45,490 And they, I mean the concept of sovereign democracy in Russia. So would we have something similar in Tunisia, then presented as a democracy? 356 00:42:45,490 --> 00:42:51,750 That's that's a risk. And I mean, I agree with many points that the unsafe but. 357 00:42:51,750 --> 00:42:58,560 For other reasons that are, I mean, the balance of power in the country. 358 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:06,420 I still think that we're not going there yet, and I still think that four months after the power grab, we don't have an agenda. 359 00:43:06,420 --> 00:43:14,990 And so I mean, there needs to be a solution, and I think the solution needs to be negotiated. 360 00:43:14,990 --> 00:43:19,310 Thank you, Yousef. And yeah, if I could just jump in. 361 00:43:19,310 --> 00:43:29,030 I think one of the key problems here is really that we have seen over the past two years, really only I remember in 2013, 362 00:43:29,030 --> 00:43:35,270 I think it really started in Tunisia that I was struck by the growing scepticism against political parties, 363 00:43:35,270 --> 00:43:43,530 by the people and scepticism that has been amplified on media by the media that has been focussing on the quarrels between the politicians. 364 00:43:43,530 --> 00:43:51,590 So and so so the concept of political parties as mediator of the will of the people has become. 365 00:43:51,590 --> 00:43:57,890 It's become an extremely question. And that has really been feeding into this to the scepticism, 366 00:43:57,890 --> 00:44:07,640 an almost like hatred of political parties and politicians who are increasingly associated with with just their own interest. 367 00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:14,690 And already in 2013 14, I remember people talking and I wish that the army would take over which back then, 368 00:44:14,690 --> 00:44:22,400 you know, well, a lot of people in Western universities were still celebrating the Tunisian experiment. 369 00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:29,750 So this really very much clashed with the perception of the Tunisian model that we were celebrating here. 370 00:44:29,750 --> 00:44:38,690 This growing scepticism of the of the political system that we have in Tunisia and calls for an alternative. 371 00:44:38,690 --> 00:44:48,830 Increasing talk about this about a third way, something in between the political system that we are having and a strong dictator. 372 00:44:48,830 --> 00:44:59,830 And that, again, I think side is exploiting by trying to introduce some kind of hybrid or competitive authoritarian system. 373 00:44:59,830 --> 00:45:06,700 Thank you very much. And move now to the questions that are coming in on the Q&A, but thank you very much for typing in your questions. 374 00:45:06,700 --> 00:45:12,670 We've got a lot of very distinguished and knowledgeable people on North Africa who follow it and follow Tunisia very well. 375 00:45:12,670 --> 00:45:19,840 So delighted to have them join us. And the first of those is the head of Salah, who, as many of you will know, 376 00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:24,160 has been writing on North Africa in the British national press for so many years. 377 00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,340 Welcome, Heather, and thank you very much for joining us and have us. 378 00:45:27,340 --> 00:45:33,550 Question is, was the situation before July the 25th and Tunisia sustainable? 379 00:45:33,550 --> 00:45:40,480 And did it have the ability to self-correct and I think have a default of rephrase that this question is saying really? 380 00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:46,990 Was it unavoidable, but something had to happen that the crisis that come to power or was it or did I say this 381 00:45:46,990 --> 00:45:53,890 intervention actually really interfered in something that we could have actually self-directed again? 382 00:45:53,890 --> 00:45:57,690 Go faster, use it first. 383 00:45:57,690 --> 00:46:04,320 This is an easy and difficult question, and actually, I look back at some articles I wrote or some comments I made before today, 384 00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:09,420 but at some point I would say, Well, this is not a sustainable situation and we'll explore that at some point. 385 00:46:09,420 --> 00:46:16,950 They say, Well, this is how democracy works, and it's and and this status quo, will we stay forever? 386 00:46:16,950 --> 00:46:21,840 But what is sure is that there was a crisis before July 25th. 387 00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:25,800 Everyone was unhappy. I mean, the president would decide something. 388 00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:32,400 The prime minister would decide something against it. The parliament would vote, would vote something and the president would say no. 389 00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:36,390 So there was a blue cash and white. 390 00:46:36,390 --> 00:46:42,420 And now a lot of people in each side puts their responsibility on the other. 391 00:46:42,420 --> 00:46:51,720 But there was a blue card. So I think the what I mean, I think something needed to happen, but something more. 392 00:46:51,720 --> 00:46:53,790 Any elections rather than this. 393 00:46:53,790 --> 00:47:07,960 But this is what what happened and I think what happened is actually the pessimistic scenario and not the next scenario, which was an election and. 394 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:16,600 Yeah, I agree with Yusef that obviously the the there was a major crisis which wasn't just about the health crisis, 395 00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:22,510 the economic crisis, that was the political crisis between the president, the prime minister and the head of parliament. 396 00:47:22,510 --> 00:47:26,530 On top of that, there was another major crisis which we haven't actually talked about yet, 397 00:47:26,530 --> 00:47:31,300 which was a crisis within the largest political party in Tunisia within and after, 398 00:47:31,300 --> 00:47:42,250 which has to some extent has served as a counterbalance or as the balancing force ever since the Tunisian uprisings and after has always been. 399 00:47:42,250 --> 00:47:46,120 There are all other parties, have a lot of parties been created. 400 00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:50,260 A lot of them have collapsed, but and not underwent in a way was a stabilising factor. 401 00:47:50,260 --> 00:47:53,440 And this wasn't so much the case anymore. 402 00:47:53,440 --> 00:48:03,640 This summer, for a variety of reasons, the reasons one of them is that the head of another country took the leadership of the parliament, 403 00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:10,090 but he's a very controversial figure. One of the most or the most distrusted person in Tunisia. 404 00:48:10,090 --> 00:48:14,920 So he amplified political crisis. 405 00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:22,930 At the same time, the crisis was also internally with an investor because she was trying to accumulate more power within the party, 406 00:48:22,930 --> 00:48:29,920 didn't want to see the leadership of the party even go the party charter told him to do so. 407 00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:35,500 So as a result, and afterwards gradually imploding from inside, 408 00:48:35,500 --> 00:48:43,900 where a lot of statements criticism between rival factions to an extent and not as never seen before in India's entire history, 409 00:48:43,900 --> 00:48:49,870 it was too or it is still the biggest crisis and US has ever seen the one force that 410 00:48:49,870 --> 00:48:57,220 has in a way stabilised the political transformation in Tunisia in the past decade, 411 00:48:57,220 --> 00:49:02,830 even though it has been very much criticised, sometimes rightfully, sometimes not rightfully. 412 00:49:02,830 --> 00:49:11,580 And I think the crisis of Tunisia today is to some extent also reflective of the crisis within another. 413 00:49:11,580 --> 00:49:17,070 Thank you very much. And thank you for saying something about NADA again, you haven't been referred to much in your original presentations, 414 00:49:17,070 --> 00:49:19,950 and they're obviously a crucial part of this jigsaw, 415 00:49:19,950 --> 00:49:27,040 and I believe that that helps explain things very nicely for unexpected forgetting somebody else who follows and knows Tunisia very well. 416 00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:33,420 Danny, decent wine. Welcome, Danny. Very nice to have you join us. And Danny's question is about the army. 417 00:49:33,420 --> 00:49:40,050 How influential powerful is the Tunisian army today? Unlike Egypt, the army in Tunisia was always marginal to political life. 418 00:49:40,050 --> 00:49:41,170 And indeed, 419 00:49:41,170 --> 00:49:51,660 as that was one of the explanations for why the revolution succeeded in Tunisia opposite and could be army really be able and interested to intervene? 420 00:49:51,660 --> 00:49:58,230 And you referred to the army, perhaps go to you first to mention about whether we will see the army introduce it, 421 00:49:58,230 --> 00:50:03,990 which is really not played a political role throughout post-independence history and quite an unremarkable in a quite a remarkable way. 422 00:50:03,990 --> 00:50:06,930 Whether that might change. 423 00:50:06,930 --> 00:50:15,780 Yeah, I think that's a really important question and one of the key questions right now, and I'm not sure I have one very obvious answer to this. 424 00:50:15,780 --> 00:50:21,810 That would be very easy, but I don't. But just to put maybe the rule of the army or demystify a little bit, 425 00:50:21,810 --> 00:50:28,350 I think it has the the degree of neutrality and apolitical position of the Tunisian army. 426 00:50:28,350 --> 00:50:38,370 I do think it has been overstated. It has also been overstated that the army is very weak in other countries with an army 427 00:50:38,370 --> 00:50:45,180 compared to it off as like a fourth army force comparable to the size of Tunisia. 428 00:50:45,180 --> 00:50:52,140 Military coups have happened, so it's not that Tunisia's army is weak marginal force. 429 00:50:52,140 --> 00:50:59,970 That's the first point I want to make. And the other point is that I want to make a snap is the how the army has been misportrayed. 430 00:50:59,970 --> 00:51:12,330 Also during the Tunisian revolution, when the narrative circulated that the army defected from Ben Ali and in a way it sided with the Tunisian people, 431 00:51:12,330 --> 00:51:19,140 which is, it's been quoted dozens and dozens of times, but it's unfortunately not what happened. 432 00:51:19,140 --> 00:51:24,150 What actually happened back then is that the army did not do anything because Ben Ali, 433 00:51:24,150 --> 00:51:28,470 at least not until Ben Ali left because Ben Ali had never asked the army. 434 00:51:28,470 --> 00:51:35,040 There were contacts and the officers asking what to do so in a way that army was following Ben Ali, 435 00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:44,100 but until the end, but basically following what he had asked him to do, which is not much at that time. 436 00:51:44,100 --> 00:51:51,870 So where does that leave us? Basically, the army is a very disciplined organisation who like hierarchy. 437 00:51:51,870 --> 00:51:58,020 Many of the officers were appointed by Ben Ali, ruled through Ben Ali. 438 00:51:58,020 --> 00:52:03,540 A lot of them are highly sceptical of Islamists, which everyone knows was already talked to. 439 00:52:03,540 --> 00:52:12,030 Some of them. I think already in 2013, with the events in Egypt, some of them it is privately like the idea, 440 00:52:12,030 --> 00:52:16,440 if I may say that, that something similar would happen in Tunisia. 441 00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,830 Um, so we don't know what's going to happen in the future. 442 00:52:19,830 --> 00:52:25,110 I'm not saying the army, there's going to be certainly a military dictatorship. I think that would be way too far fetched. 443 00:52:25,110 --> 00:52:35,430 But I do think they had a choice when a it invoked Article 18, which if you read the article, you can you can you just meet. 444 00:52:35,430 --> 00:52:42,120 You don't need to be an expert on constitutional law like he is, just need to be a simple person like we are. 445 00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:50,550 Read the article and you can see it's not constitutional because the parliament says very clearly that parliament should should be in session. 446 00:52:50,550 --> 00:53:01,590 What the did? They actually blocked people from entering the parliament and and so basically they decided to follow the orders of Pisi it, 447 00:53:01,590 --> 00:53:06,480 even though he was not working anymore in legal frame. 448 00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:10,710 And I do think by that, the political neutrality collapsed. 449 00:53:10,710 --> 00:53:16,830 They agreed to follow orders of someone who did not operate any more within the constitutional frame. 450 00:53:16,830 --> 00:53:22,410 So I don't think we can describe the army at this point as neutral or as they have clearly taken sides. 451 00:53:22,410 --> 00:53:27,960 The question is just what they will do in the future. And this I cannot answer. 452 00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:34,580 Thank you, you your view. No, I agree with on that. 453 00:53:34,580 --> 00:53:40,820 The army is not that neutral in Tunisia like any country by the end of the day. 454 00:53:40,820 --> 00:53:51,070 I mean. It's part of the political spectrum, but one thing is that even when they went to Parliament, 455 00:53:51,070 --> 00:53:56,430 that's one thing with the Tunisian army that they rarely confront citizens. 456 00:53:56,430 --> 00:54:03,430 So even on July 25th, they were sitting there. They would tell people not to enter, but they would not. 457 00:54:03,430 --> 00:54:11,290 Shooting people and for the future when the army is an option, but also in a place like Tunisia, 458 00:54:11,290 --> 00:54:16,330 where the police and the Minister of Interior and actually very influential and for decades, 459 00:54:16,330 --> 00:54:21,760 they were the ones actually pulling the strings more than the army itself. 460 00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:28,040 There are another important player that that can. 461 00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:33,260 Want to take take up more war powers. 462 00:54:33,260 --> 00:54:42,140 But I think one the army today is more powerful than where it was 10 years ago, and so it's its place is actually perhaps as important. 463 00:54:42,140 --> 00:54:46,700 It's a bit more important than it is to consider. So there is a balance of power there. 464 00:54:46,700 --> 00:54:58,190 And also, I think the army or the police, they don't see themselves as being able to control the whole country for a long period of time. 465 00:54:58,190 --> 00:55:05,540 And so so far, I don't see them really moving in and taking power. 466 00:55:05,540 --> 00:55:11,110 But as I said, I mean, this is this is an open question. 467 00:55:11,110 --> 00:55:13,600 Thank you. You said enough. 468 00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:23,110 This question is again dealing with significant actors outside of a formal political realm, and deals with this comes from an anonymous anonymously. 469 00:55:23,110 --> 00:55:30,830 She's absolutely fine, and it deals with the Yugi team, which is the main trade union federation. 470 00:55:30,830 --> 00:55:36,640 As many of you know, Tunisia well. Tunisia has an extremely powerful trade union movement. 471 00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:41,800 Probably the most powerful in the Arab world, but did play a significant role in the revolution. 472 00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:47,080 And the question is, what do you think the role of the team will be in the next weeks or months? 473 00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:55,390 Both the already made some references. Did they have the ability to slow or even stop Kai side's ascension? 474 00:55:55,390 --> 00:56:01,000 So on the road of the unity, and perhaps you'd like to go first on that? 475 00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:09,550 Yes, sure. So maybe you should start by the position of the utility on what has happened at the beginning, 476 00:56:09,550 --> 00:56:15,460 like many other organisations and political parties, is what actually is. 477 00:56:15,460 --> 00:56:19,240 I mean, they maybe I should start by clarifying this not one utility. 478 00:56:19,240 --> 00:56:24,370 It's a massive organisation, obviously, with many different factions. 479 00:56:24,370 --> 00:56:35,320 And so, so the position right now. What I'm just referring to is the position, the official position, as as discussed by the president. 480 00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:39,940 So, um, so at the beginning, the unity was very favourable. 481 00:56:39,940 --> 00:56:50,650 But and the was even trying to reach out to my side because what do you think wanted some kind of a real influence 482 00:56:50,650 --> 00:56:59,230 on on taking a major role within this political crisis and draughting some kind of roadmap on how to get out of it? 483 00:56:59,230 --> 00:57:02,980 So they initially declared they supported him, 484 00:57:02,980 --> 00:57:12,820 then they even themselves draughted a roadmap of how they envisioned to get out of the crisis in a very detailed way, 485 00:57:12,820 --> 00:57:18,940 similar to what they envisioned a similar process that they had together with the quartette. 486 00:57:18,940 --> 00:57:28,300 But even though they did not engaged with the so it's he's very in that sense, I think, 487 00:57:28,300 --> 00:57:34,690 not very strategic in the sense that he even though forces political parties or 488 00:57:34,690 --> 00:57:39,700 national organisations that strongly spoke out in favour of him at the beginning. 489 00:57:39,700 --> 00:57:49,690 He is not reacting to them and trying to integrate them any way in this political limbo that he actually created. 490 00:57:49,690 --> 00:57:55,390 So. So what we're seeing now is utility becoming more and more critical of him. 491 00:57:55,390 --> 00:58:06,100 Many people speaking out calling this a coup and being afraid also that we will turn to the times like they were under Ben Ali. 492 00:58:06,100 --> 00:58:12,100 I mean, no one actually really knows case yet, and that makes him extremely unpredictable. 493 00:58:12,100 --> 00:58:19,600 And I think all the major national organisations and political parties are realising that they placed his hope in this idealistic, 494 00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:26,050 utopian professor and still hoping that he's an idealist as opposed to a dictator. 495 00:58:26,050 --> 00:58:37,000 But I think they're increasingly realising that actually having to having to deal with an idealist dictator, which is not a contradiction in terms. 496 00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:40,600 Thank you, Yousef. Yeah, actually on is it the day, 497 00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:48,280 I think the main reason why they supported ISIS on July 5th is because their grassroots are supportive of seeing their grassroots. 498 00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:54,700 Many of them are very much opposed to another. Most of them work in the public sector. 499 00:58:54,700 --> 00:59:03,910 So have I mean, they have in their system and still believe that what the nation needs is a strong man and not the parliament and so on and so on. 500 00:59:03,910 --> 00:59:09,520 So the grassroots and also because of this very anti-imperialist narrative and discourse. 501 00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:14,320 So he seduced them now. They had to follow that way. 502 00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:26,140 I mean, the leadership. But slowly, they started criticising him as weeks went by because actually the leadership they feel feels that isYou 503 00:59:26,140 --> 00:59:32,320 doesn't necessarily want to deal with them and say that he had united that almost everyone and he doesn't. 504 00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:39,400 He considers himself the embodiment of everything right and clean, et cetera. 505 00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:43,640 And so he probably considers some either as corrupt. 506 00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:48,550 So is it that they actually the leadership of that they found itself sidelined 507 00:59:48,550 --> 00:59:55,450 by him and possibly accused by him of all people around him of corruption? 508 00:59:55,450 --> 01:00:04,060 So they are afraid of what will happen if he continues that they are afraid also that if he continues monopolising power, 509 01:00:04,060 --> 01:00:08,530 they won't be able to negotiate with the government as they used to do before, 510 01:00:08,530 --> 01:00:15,790 to get higher wages and better salaries and better conditions for their members who work in the public sector. 511 01:00:15,790 --> 01:00:20,350 So they are worried about what would happen to them. 512 01:00:20,350 --> 01:00:33,070 But now that they see that his popularity may be decreasing, not that much, but some people start questioning what he's doing. 513 01:00:33,070 --> 01:00:38,490 You see them on a more critical. You see more and more strikes organised by you. 514 01:00:38,490 --> 01:00:43,690 It is very limited, very small, but it's growing in number. 515 01:00:43,690 --> 01:00:53,480 And I think we spoke about the army or the police. But I think it is the other big player much more important than any political party and much more. 516 01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:58,450 And it has actually a much more solid basis than any political party can do. 517 01:00:58,450 --> 01:00:59,550 It's not political party. 518 01:00:59,550 --> 01:01:12,010 So in the future, I think we will see a kind of we to use it more and more vocal against aside and let the less popular the East. 519 01:01:12,010 --> 01:01:21,070 The more is it that they will speak up and once the economic crisis that most people expect gets deeper. 520 01:01:21,070 --> 01:01:28,270 I think that they will have a much important role to play in the country and to oblige him to negotiate 521 01:01:28,270 --> 01:01:36,320 or or we will see some kind of like there between you and the president and whoever is around. 522 01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:42,170 Thank you, use, if we have time for one more question, apologies to all of the wonderful questions. 523 01:01:42,170 --> 01:01:47,570 Great question. It'd be nice to extend this session. We have time for one more question. 524 01:01:47,570 --> 01:01:52,880 One last question comes from one of the master's students here Middle East Centre Riley Sanborn. 525 01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:59,030 And Riley's question is prior to the events of July, the expressly anti-democratic and authoritarian, 526 01:01:59,030 --> 01:02:07,250 nostalgic party historian Liberal, the three that the story and party led the opinion polls in a hypothetical next election. 527 01:02:07,250 --> 01:02:12,410 What does this say about the attitudes of the Tunisian public media into the current crisis? 528 01:02:12,410 --> 01:02:20,960 Does popular support for such a party, but was nostalgic about the past reflects growing anti revolutionary sentiments of all? 529 01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:27,320 Or is this more a product of popular anti-elite attitudes? 530 01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:30,110 And first, OK, a very long question. 531 01:02:30,110 --> 01:02:41,910 But so basically, if I understood correctly, it's about what the rise of Abdel Mmusi has to say about the current situation. 532 01:02:41,910 --> 01:02:48,950 So that's probably not doing justice to the question. But yeah, I think um. 533 01:02:48,950 --> 01:02:54,530 And whether or not it was anti revolutionary elites, sorry, I might have missed the past, 534 01:02:54,530 --> 01:02:59,690 but I think I mean, the rise of Abu Mazen is a bit has in a way foreshadowed. 535 01:02:59,690 --> 01:03:01,280 I mean, it's easy to say in retrospect, 536 01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:08,120 but this has been foreshadowing shadowing this anti revolutionary movement that we're now witnessing, I think for a very long time. 537 01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:18,380 I mean, Morsi has been embodying in a way will try to unite different factions, anti revolutionary factions. 538 01:03:18,380 --> 01:03:22,760 So not all of them would describe themselves as anti revolutionaries. That's also important to note. 539 01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:28,910 So she is looking or she's trying to unite has long unite. 540 01:03:28,910 --> 01:03:37,430 For example, members of the former ruling party of Benali, the RCD, but also other forces, especially anti Islamist forces. 541 01:03:37,430 --> 01:03:48,350 And so. So yeah, I mean, these are also the people who who many of them are now backing, say it. 542 01:03:48,350 --> 01:03:53,000 So I think there's a little bit of a continuity in this respect. 543 01:03:53,000 --> 01:04:01,790 And the question is now just what what is actually going to happen with Abdul Morsi and her party? 544 01:04:01,790 --> 01:04:10,100 And I think it's quite interesting how she reacted. And Youssef can maybe tell us more about how how this is being played out on the ground. 545 01:04:10,100 --> 01:04:13,610 But the way I've been seeing it is that actually at the beginning, 546 01:04:13,610 --> 01:04:23,300 she took a long time to react because in a way I say it reflects many of the uh or or 547 01:04:23,300 --> 01:04:29,330 reflects many of the project that she has been striving to achieve herself in Tunisia. 548 01:04:29,330 --> 01:04:32,840 So ideologically, they're very much close, but politically they are competitors. 549 01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:38,750 So put on a very difficult situation because she could not now suddenly say she's not supporting. 550 01:04:38,750 --> 01:04:45,560 I say it because she has been saying for a long time she would like that the Islamists 551 01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:51,950 disappear and has been using a lot of extremely violent anti-Islamic rhetoric. 552 01:04:51,950 --> 01:04:56,240 So what we saw after he took power that actually she waited for a long time. 553 01:04:56,240 --> 01:04:59,420 A lot of other political parties already published statements. She waited. 554 01:04:59,420 --> 01:05:06,410 Sometimes you need till you needed some time to think about how to approach this very difficult political dilemma. 555 01:05:06,410 --> 01:05:13,310 And then she spoke out in support of him, also expressing the hope that finally, 556 01:05:13,310 --> 01:05:22,460 the Muslim Brotherhood, as she derogatorily called, is an actor in that she means that derogatorily. 557 01:05:22,460 --> 01:05:28,220 I'm not saying that I find it derogatory, but an actor does not identify the leadership as the Muslim Brotherhood. 558 01:05:28,220 --> 01:05:37,610 So she, she she in a way tried to celebrate it in the way against the Islamist establishment in Tunisia. 559 01:05:37,610 --> 01:05:45,530 But now now fast forward a few months later, she, like many other people, are also speaking out. 560 01:05:45,530 --> 01:05:52,220 Of course it because in the in the in the political future that society is trying to draw here. 561 01:05:52,220 --> 01:06:00,680 There's also no room for a business he and her fellowship, there's just room for cageside and the people and everyone else in between is disappearing. 562 01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:06,410 And that poses a problem for all political parties, all tenancies, no matter how close the case. 563 01:06:06,410 --> 01:06:15,680 And that leaves them increasingly isolated, isolated and winners also outlined in my talk. 564 01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:25,940 Thank you, Youssef. So I think the main reason why a lot of people support the support of supported Morsi and the activists really 565 01:06:25,940 --> 01:06:36,870 before July 25th and why many people support their side is not because of their anti-Semitism or because. 566 01:06:36,870 --> 01:06:42,960 Empty democracy perspectives, but because they came against another war, many Tunisians. 567 01:06:42,960 --> 01:06:49,740 At least if we take those who are supportive of the party dystonia and evil, plus those who are supportive of our side, 568 01:06:49,740 --> 01:06:57,660 we can call them a majority of Tunisians, and neither represents the last 10 years represent the ruling power of the last years. 569 01:06:57,660 --> 01:07:02,130 So in a way, I mean, I mentioned earlier and the fact that, you know, 570 01:07:02,130 --> 01:07:07,350 that was criticised for right and wrong many times there are a lot of fake news against another, 571 01:07:07,350 --> 01:07:09,390 but actually for the majority of Tunisians, 572 01:07:09,390 --> 01:07:17,640 another is representative of those 10 years representative of the state collapse of the economic problems, corruption, etc etc. 573 01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:24,150 And so whoever comes and goes another day would come with him or with her. 574 01:07:24,150 --> 01:07:35,910 And this is actually what happened 10 years ago. I mean, and the reason why many people went out against Ben Ali and because people who are opposed to 575 01:07:35,910 --> 01:07:42,300 Ben and it is because they simply represented something else and different from from Ben. 576 01:07:42,300 --> 01:07:48,750 So it would be wrong to to describe this as pro-democracy anti-democracy revolution. 577 01:07:48,750 --> 01:07:52,080 Russian, I mean, frankly, another, especially in recent years, 578 01:07:52,080 --> 01:08:02,700 they had alliances with people who would represent the elite of the Ben Ali regime and the people who are known to be corrupt. 579 01:08:02,700 --> 01:08:13,020 Then this scenario is not anymore. That Revolutionary Party or that and not also that Islamist classical Islamist party. 580 01:08:13,020 --> 01:08:17,640 But it became an opportunist party like all political parties, actually. 581 01:08:17,640 --> 01:08:21,120 And so, as I say to me, for many people, it doesn't represent. 582 01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:24,780 It does embody the last 10 years, the failures of the last 10 years, 583 01:08:24,780 --> 01:08:31,710 and then people went for side and the party is still really the reason may be why before 584 01:08:31,710 --> 01:08:36,810 July 25th is that people did not really see something like what happened in July 22. 585 01:08:36,810 --> 01:08:43,590 So the only option they saw out of another was to go in for elections and vote for something else. 586 01:08:43,590 --> 01:08:46,050 And there's something else was the party. 587 01:08:46,050 --> 01:08:56,370 This really now that sided this power grab and that democracy is on standby and that people don't know when the next elections take place. 588 01:08:56,370 --> 01:09:01,980 Many people who are supportive of party obviously are now supportive of it. 589 01:09:01,980 --> 01:09:10,140 But again, this is happening now. It's been for months, but in six months from now, I think we'll see a completely different picture. 590 01:09:10,140 --> 01:09:16,320 And now that I will is the one who is in charge of everything people will blame. 591 01:09:16,320 --> 01:09:23,940 Lay blame him for everything because I don't think the socioeconomic situation will improve in the upcoming months. 592 01:09:23,940 --> 01:09:30,660 We will see people criticising him and opposing him in a few months from now, a few years from now, 593 01:09:30,660 --> 01:09:38,130 but not so long the way they are now opposing another and the way they finally finish. 594 01:09:38,130 --> 01:09:45,780 Thank you, use it. Thank you. I'm afraid the clock is against us, which means we must draw the session to a close, 595 01:09:45,780 --> 01:09:52,380 and I apologise again for all the people who post questions we weren't able to post and we would like to have gone through all of them. 596 01:09:52,380 --> 01:09:57,890 But thank you very much for joining us. Now I want to thank all two speakers this evening. 597 01:09:57,890 --> 01:10:03,600 And an I had found very in a very confusing situation of what had happened since July. 598 01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:06,540 And I feel even though I don't quite understand everything yet, 599 01:10:06,540 --> 01:10:14,340 I feel a lot better equipped to try and understand what is happening in Tunisia and to see how things unfold from here. 600 01:10:14,340 --> 01:10:18,000 So thank you very much to both of you. And thank you to all of you attending. 601 01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:22,120 And I look forward to you joining us on another occasion. Thank you very much and have a very nice evening. 602 01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:32,404 Thank you. Bye bye.