1 00:00:05,560 --> 00:00:10,540 Good evening. Welcome to our Friday lecture series at the Middle East Centre. 2 00:00:10,540 --> 00:00:14,560 The theme this term is Environment. My name is Walter Armbrister. 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:20,140 I'm one of the founders of the Middle East Centre, and our speaker this evening is Dr. Manal Zahabi. 4 00:00:20,140 --> 00:00:24,400 She is an applied economist with expertise and economic energy resource, 5 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:31,030 sustainability and policy making and resource dependent economies focussing on the Middle East and the Gulf regions. 6 00:00:31,030 --> 00:00:35,260 Her work involves economy-wide modelling and political economy, 7 00:00:35,260 --> 00:00:43,780 and she uses these methods to contribute to scholarship on economic and energy diversification and policy alternatives and gulf hydrocarbon economies. 8 00:00:43,780 --> 00:00:48,050 Following the energy transition and oil price volatility. 9 00:00:48,050 --> 00:00:53,330 Dr. Shabby is a frequent presence in media as a commentator or discussant on Gulf energy issues. 10 00:00:53,330 --> 00:01:01,520 She's been on Sky News, Arabic, Al-Arabiya TV, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Radio Oman and numerous podcasts, 11 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:08,630 and she's also been interviewed and cited in Time Magazine, Al Jazeera, Al-Akhbar newspaper and a web. 12 00:01:08,630 --> 00:01:15,820 She's a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and currently also an academic visitor at St. Anthony's, 13 00:01:15,820 --> 00:01:21,950 a status which dramatically understates her lively presence at our events over the past few years. 14 00:01:21,950 --> 00:01:28,950 A level of participation that I must say, goes far beyond the economies in energy politics of Gulf states. 15 00:01:28,950 --> 00:01:30,630 In her most recent academic writing, 16 00:01:30,630 --> 00:01:39,750 Dr. Shehab has addressed such topics as the long term impact of COVID on the economies of oil producing states and in forthcoming articles, 17 00:01:39,750 --> 00:01:46,740 the potential impact of hydrogen production in the Gulf, including both blue hydrogen and green hydrogen. 18 00:01:46,740 --> 00:01:49,470 And I'll leave it to her to explain the difference between them. 19 00:01:49,470 --> 00:01:56,550 I gather there's also grey, pink and yellow hydrogen, and I mentioned hydrogen because it's a good segue way to tonight's lecture, 20 00:01:56,550 --> 00:02:02,670 which examines both energy diversification in the Gulf and the state of the environment the region. 21 00:02:02,670 --> 00:02:08,280 I should also mention that she is going to be going to the COP26 conference next week, 22 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:14,820 so she is on the ground floor on the ground, zero of environmental issues of our times. 23 00:02:14,820 --> 00:02:21,870 The title of her lecture is environment, discounted energy and economic diversification plans in the Gulf. 24 00:02:21,870 --> 00:02:29,970 And I should mention that as usual, you should use the Q&A function of Zoom to send us questions. 25 00:02:29,970 --> 00:02:34,500 If you asked to remain anonymous, then we won't reveal your name. 26 00:02:34,500 --> 00:02:39,330 Otherwise, we'll reveal the names of the speakers as we ask the questions. 27 00:02:39,330 --> 00:02:44,460 So without further ado, I will turn it over to Dr Monalisa. Happy. 28 00:02:44,460 --> 00:02:49,710 Many thanks for this very kind introduction, and I'm delighted to be here with you today. 29 00:02:49,710 --> 00:02:53,850 And also very happy that the theme of the webinar series this term is on the 30 00:02:53,850 --> 00:02:58,800 environment so that it won't be discounted as kind of the title of my presentation. 31 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:08,500 I'm going to go ahead and share my screen with everyone now. So for today's talk, as Walter had said in the introduction, the title is environment, 32 00:03:08,500 --> 00:03:12,070 discounted energy and economic diversification plans in the Gulf. 33 00:03:12,070 --> 00:03:16,900 And in this talk, it's based on a paper that I'm working on at the moment. 34 00:03:16,900 --> 00:03:20,590 But a lot of the background is also really the culmination of research that I've 35 00:03:20,590 --> 00:03:26,050 been involved in for years now as part of this larger project on sustainability, 36 00:03:26,050 --> 00:03:30,100 both energy and economic and resources in hydrocarbon economies in the Gulf. 37 00:03:30,100 --> 00:03:36,260 And I think I should probably say that it was really compelling, and I chose the date today to speak. 38 00:03:36,260 --> 00:03:39,970 I was completely not paying attention to the fact that COP will be taking place this week. 39 00:03:39,970 --> 00:03:43,930 So the timing is completely serendipitous here today. 40 00:03:43,930 --> 00:03:50,260 And with the country's going through a little bit of the scope of what today's talk will be when we think Gulf states, 41 00:03:50,260 --> 00:03:59,650 everybody thinks oil and gas exporters, which is true. But for purposes of my talk today, I want to exclude Iraq and Iran because for obvious reasons, 42 00:03:59,650 --> 00:04:04,390 Iraq has had political instability lately, which directly affects its economy in Iran. 43 00:04:04,390 --> 00:04:09,790 Of course, it sanctions so very heavy emphasis or impact of exaggerates variables. 44 00:04:09,790 --> 00:04:16,120 So I'm shooting them for purposes of this talk, and I'm focussing mostly on countries that are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 45 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:21,070 Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 46 00:04:21,070 --> 00:04:28,450 And just for everyone's kind of, I think, a reference point to think of how relevant these countries are. 47 00:04:28,450 --> 00:04:32,350 Aside from them being, you know, large oil and gas producers and consumers, 48 00:04:32,350 --> 00:04:37,240 they're also have one percent of the world population but produce significant portion twenty 49 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:42,850 five percent of global oil exports and or global oil production and 11 percent of natural gas. 50 00:04:42,850 --> 00:04:54,180 And they also have very large potential for producing renewable energy would also be leading if they choose to. 51 00:04:54,180 --> 00:04:59,430 I also want to give you, but basically what my talk today, the point going off will be. 52 00:04:59,430 --> 00:05:06,270 So if we look at the transitioning away from fossil fuels, that's been kind of sweeping a lot of economies in the world. 53 00:05:06,270 --> 00:05:11,200 The main point of that, or the drive of that have been has been protecting the environment, 54 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:16,050 reducing climate change and mitigating the effects of global warming on the planet. 55 00:05:16,050 --> 00:05:21,030 But I'm arguing today that actually this is different in the Gulf. 56 00:05:21,030 --> 00:05:27,540 Specifically, if you look at the role of the environment and energy and economic development plans and the Gulf, 57 00:05:27,540 --> 00:05:30,930 both in terms of the emissions, but also the recent climate commitments. 58 00:05:30,930 --> 00:05:36,360 I'm arguing that the role of environment has been limited because it has not been unlike other countries. 59 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:44,280 That hasn't been the main motivator for a change, but rather as a motivator has been really more protecting energy exports and also 60 00:05:44,280 --> 00:05:49,090 protecting a leading role in the global energy market and global economy in general. 61 00:05:49,090 --> 00:05:55,930 Having said that, though, and despite numerous improvements on the environment front and the Gulf states really maximising 62 00:05:55,930 --> 00:06:02,020 economic and energy sustainability requires put in the environment as a central point in policy making. 63 00:06:02,020 --> 00:06:07,260 So this is pretty much the point of my talk, and I wanted to give this to you ahead. 64 00:06:07,260 --> 00:06:10,660 I go because I want to take you to give you a bit of the background, 65 00:06:10,660 --> 00:06:14,860 but also the evidence of the arguments I make in order to take you through a bit of a journey, 66 00:06:14,860 --> 00:06:23,050 so to speak with me on recovering a bit of the background for the energy and economic diversification of the Gulf and where the environment stands. 67 00:06:23,050 --> 00:06:29,890 Then I'll delve into a little bit on the visions that can make development plans more recent development, particularly on the climate. 68 00:06:29,890 --> 00:06:36,820 And then I'll conclude with how the environment has been discounted. And I also must say that the time limitations. 69 00:06:36,820 --> 00:06:38,410 This will not be conclusive. 70 00:06:38,410 --> 00:06:46,360 I'll be picking examples and I apologise in advance of a country that one from one is interested in might not be discussed in detail, 71 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:57,690 but I'm more than happy to take it in a Q&A. OK, so let me just give you a bit of a background on the need for economic and energy diversification. 72 00:06:57,690 --> 00:07:02,620 So I've mentioned that oil and gas, and I think this is probably very well known to everyone. 73 00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:05,100 Both states are overdependence on hydrocarbons, 74 00:07:05,100 --> 00:07:11,820 oil and gas and what I mean by over in waste to that because look, as a percentage of natural resource, 75 00:07:11,820 --> 00:07:20,530 they tend on average to be higher than the rest of the world, including other states that export oil and gas, such as Russia. 76 00:07:20,530 --> 00:07:25,050 And I'm going to go ahead and just use a laser pointer here of this line here in purple, 77 00:07:25,050 --> 00:07:30,300 for example, which when you have Libya and Iraq in yellow Iran, while for example, 78 00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:38,880 Russia and even Venezuela with both hydrocarbon exporters tend to have lower share of GDP and in a sense, 79 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:44,520 that being part of GDP or what I show here in the slide as part of your ad for me, 80 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:49,680 for the presence of hydrocarbons is not just in GDP, but really its share of exports. 81 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:55,400 So these states tend to have over 80 percent of their exports coming from exports to oil or gas. 82 00:07:55,400 --> 00:08:05,490 They're also the majority of their government revenue. And even, for example, in, for example, we only have 42 percent of its GDP coming from oil. 83 00:08:05,490 --> 00:08:10,450 85 to 90 percent of exports and government revenue comes from hydrocarbon sectors. 84 00:08:10,450 --> 00:08:17,430 So what I mean is there is a huge reliance of the economy on oil, of course, or oil and gas. 85 00:08:17,430 --> 00:08:24,810 Also all of the time you really shifts with oil and gas movements, oil and gas movements and performances on gas industry. 86 00:08:24,810 --> 00:08:30,300 And for example, here are examples from Kuwait and Arabia. 87 00:08:30,300 --> 00:08:39,690 If you look at the red line here with the of full price, while the PDP movement and the Green Line with the blue lines of production did pretty much 88 00:08:39,690 --> 00:08:44,850 moved consistently with oil price on the same look at net foreign assets from Saudi Arabia, 89 00:08:44,850 --> 00:08:54,770 but also we do other economic indicators. One of the women in this is that the fact oil and gas are obviously very volatile, they move quite a lot. 90 00:08:54,770 --> 00:09:00,630 And what that means is that the economy becomes exposed to boom and bust very quickly. 91 00:09:00,630 --> 00:09:04,460 This problem obviously isn't new, but it became really problematic. 92 00:09:04,460 --> 00:09:14,570 And I guess the Gulf states, particularly in 2014 mid-2014, when the oil price collapsed from over 130 or so by, you know, 93 00:09:14,570 --> 00:09:21,920 inferences that were thirty dollars per barrel and that all of a sudden kind of created or increased the urgency, 94 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:31,370 really for Gulf states to think about role of oil and gas and the economy and to really advance at least verbally advanced projects 95 00:09:31,370 --> 00:09:38,870 for diversifying their economy so that they're less reliant on exports of oil and gas and less reliance on this volatile source, 96 00:09:38,870 --> 00:09:41,120 which makes their economies very volatile. 97 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:47,510 And another instance where it was also very volatile was last year after the COVID spike, when prices also collapsed. 98 00:09:47,510 --> 00:09:52,280 And the grey line here is the volatility index is quite high. 99 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,900 Now, as a response to this, even though, as I mentioned, overdependence is not new. 100 00:09:56,900 --> 00:10:05,300 It really was after the oil price collapse in 2014 that a more significant policy shift took place in the Gulf, 101 00:10:05,300 --> 00:10:09,860 one of which included reducing or reforming energy subsidies. 102 00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:15,680 Prior to that were some of the highest in the world. For example, Iran and Kuwait patronage. 103 00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:20,600 They had some of the highest subsidisation rates of energy mystically. 104 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:27,080 And this obviously with reforms at various levels of success between 2015 and 2016. 105 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:27,740 But then on the note, 106 00:10:27,740 --> 00:10:36,560 there were also a policy response wants to really advance its economic and development plans in the form that I should say these are not new. 107 00:10:36,560 --> 00:10:42,680 Like many states, Gulf states have also had five or 10 year development plans and different visions. 108 00:10:42,680 --> 00:10:50,460 Change to happen after 2014 was really quite significant because the new visions would put you give you really 109 00:10:50,460 --> 00:10:56,540 an idea of what the country would look like at a certain point in the future 20 30 to 20 40 years away. 110 00:10:56,540 --> 00:11:06,380 It really represented kind of like a transformation of the economy away from oil and gas into economies that have more diversified sectors, 111 00:11:06,380 --> 00:11:11,540 economies that have high renewables, but also the role of the private sector. 112 00:11:11,540 --> 00:11:20,990 And employment is higher and R&D or higher. So it's really almost like a complete change from the previous economic structure to speak. 113 00:11:20,990 --> 00:11:25,140 And even in the case of Kuwait, for example, they even called it New Kuwait 20 five. 114 00:11:25,140 --> 00:11:32,600 So that gives you an idea of the strength or the emphasis on the transforming the economy in those visions. 115 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:42,330 This will be one of the things that I'll discuss briefly a few minutes. Now, why does this sense or this urgency for economic diversification persist, 116 00:11:42,330 --> 00:11:48,270 such as the collapse of oil price, which had significant fiscal implications? 117 00:11:48,270 --> 00:11:56,520 And then there's also another important find, which was the energy energy transition what basically means global effort or attempt to consume 118 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:02,430 less fossil fuels and hydrocarbons and go towards more clean energy sources such as hydrogen, 119 00:12:02,430 --> 00:12:05,280 which is mentioned in the beginning, but also renewables, et cetera. 120 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:13,330 And there are different estimates of what size of or what demand really will be for different energy sources in the future. 121 00:12:13,330 --> 00:12:21,240 Current estimates do suggest more conservative, but also more optimistic suggests that oil and gas man will be significantly lower, 122 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:26,880 including information from the IEA and the world energy outlook last year, as well as this year, 123 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:33,480 are suggesting that a consumer movement away from fossil fuels toward clean energy alternative. 124 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:41,340 This basically means big effect on the main source of or the main engine of Gulf economies. 125 00:12:41,340 --> 00:12:43,480 This has been used as the main challenge, 126 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:50,460 but there's other main challenges that I think are also really stressing the availability of oil and gas exports, 127 00:12:50,460 --> 00:12:59,640 one of which is the fact that domestic consumption of oil and gas is also rising at a rate that is significantly higher than the growth in production, 128 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:07,650 which is, you see the growth in production in Oregon, as well as the growth in domestic energy. 129 00:13:07,650 --> 00:13:12,390 So that means that less availability of hydrocarbon resources for export, 130 00:13:12,390 --> 00:13:18,550 no firm islands also is the fact that we just don't know oil prices in the future. 131 00:13:18,550 --> 00:13:26,640 Some states are well for every state, which means they have very generous welfare distributive measures by way of subsidies and other assistance. 132 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:35,460 And very few here are also very public sector that employs a lot of the citizens and that has a very big public wage problem. 133 00:13:35,460 --> 00:13:42,600 So what that means is these states require high price of oil just to balance their budget and the oil they expected. 134 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:47,460 Oil price is expected to be lower than the price required to balance the budget. 135 00:13:47,460 --> 00:13:57,270 So then it's really there is a it was me an urgency to diversify the economy and have other sources of income and the diversification. 136 00:13:57,270 --> 00:14:04,650 If you remember from my early slide, there was existing non oil sector in GDP, so that's not really the emphasis that these states require. 137 00:14:04,650 --> 00:14:08,460 What they require is a diversification of the export source. 138 00:14:08,460 --> 00:14:15,330 So other exports and sources that can generate sufficient revenue that the governments and the budgets required. 139 00:14:15,330 --> 00:14:19,570 And part of the reason that I'm sharing the slide here because I think we need to kind of start, 140 00:14:19,570 --> 00:14:25,530 we often we think of just energy transition and the effect of oil price and global and U.S. economies. 141 00:14:25,530 --> 00:14:34,200 But we need to also consider much. The existing oil and gas sectors is also concerned locally how that affects the local energy portfolio, 142 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:42,480 the effect of that on the environment, which as well how that goes back to how much oil and gas are available for exports, 143 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,670 the revenues that then goes into funding, 144 00:14:44,670 --> 00:14:54,180 social development and labour and even environmental infrastructure or even economic diversification projects. 145 00:14:54,180 --> 00:15:04,070 There is a very direct. We cannot ignore it between what happens domestically for the environment and of course, what happens internationally. 146 00:15:04,070 --> 00:15:08,360 OK, so now this is probably when I Segway to take you a little bit before describing the 147 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:13,190 discounted role of the environment in the economic and energy development plans. 148 00:15:13,190 --> 00:15:19,540 I just want to give you a very brief idea of the state of the environment in the goal. 149 00:15:19,540 --> 00:15:23,900 And there's a lot of literature on this, this is not anything that I've come up with. 150 00:15:23,900 --> 00:15:30,500 But it kind of helps contextualise the challenges that we're looking at here when it comes to the environment. 151 00:15:30,500 --> 00:15:35,840 Firstly, I assume everyone knows this is the Gulf area, which I'm highlighting here. 152 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,250 But if you look at this graph, 153 00:15:37,250 --> 00:15:45,380 this is about basically how arid landscape area of the Gulf as other parts of the Middle East region are also quite arid. 154 00:15:45,380 --> 00:15:49,910 And there's obviously a lot of this fortification with that as well. 155 00:15:49,910 --> 00:15:54,190 And this is an environmental challenge to begin with. 156 00:15:54,190 --> 00:16:01,570 Another challenge this in itself is not an environmental challenge, but it's basically the high per capita consumption of energy in Gulf states, 157 00:16:01,570 --> 00:16:05,980 I should mention, are extremely abundant and in hydrocarbon resources. 158 00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:11,300 But they also have had historically very generous subsidies, with water desalination, 159 00:16:11,300 --> 00:16:18,370 electricity being provided almost for free and also other best sources, I should say. 160 00:16:18,370 --> 00:16:29,230 With that in mind, is these the lighter? The colour in the map basically means a higher capital energy or a kilogram of oil equivalent, basically. 161 00:16:29,230 --> 00:16:34,450 And you see that they have some of the highest per capita usage of energy domestically. 162 00:16:34,450 --> 00:16:40,600 And the reason that matters is because it's conservative to some of the highest emissions per capita, 163 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:46,930 as well as one of the highest emissions level per GDP. And this is data from the World Bank, it says 2014. 164 00:16:46,930 --> 00:16:52,150 But the data varies, unfortunately, when it comes to a lot of developing states, including the Gulf. 165 00:16:52,150 --> 00:16:58,390 Often there is a lag in that variability of the trends of who needed to be the same with Qatar, 166 00:16:58,390 --> 00:17:05,860 for example, being the highest emitter of carbon CO2 carbon dioxide emissions globally. 167 00:17:05,860 --> 00:17:11,920 And then the Gulf states are just as high point here as Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, I. 168 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:22,390 It's much more than double, for example, far more than double that have protected the emissions in the United States. 169 00:17:22,390 --> 00:17:30,480 Now also look at rural emissions per country. I have to say that the Gulf states are not high emitters compared to other states. 170 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:36,160 You know, the world's largest emitters are China and India and the US, you Australia, et cetera. 171 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:41,410 States are not, ah, as I mentioned on the highest per capita emitters. 172 00:17:41,410 --> 00:17:46,360 If we look at our overall overall mission, we see that emissions come mostly from things. 173 00:17:46,360 --> 00:17:50,590 If anything, it has nothing to do with oxidise over time. 174 00:17:50,590 --> 00:17:58,540 And second, the second source is a transport system, and if anyone had gone to the Gulf, you will see the lifestyles kind of supports this. 175 00:17:58,540 --> 00:18:04,910 For example, you have multiple cars and a household houses that have air conditioning that because obviously 176 00:18:04,910 --> 00:18:13,090 there's it's hot climate air conditioning that runs sometimes all the time and other very subsidised, 177 00:18:13,090 --> 00:18:18,730 almost free energy that is consumed during electricity consumed by different sectors as well. 178 00:18:18,730 --> 00:18:24,550 So from the consumer perspective, from the industrial perspective. Energy drinks and I contribute to high emissions. 179 00:18:24,550 --> 00:18:31,510 But these reason I won't share this with you because then this gives us an idea of the scope of where emission reductions would be, 180 00:18:31,510 --> 00:18:34,630 which then would be kind of what the target, so to speak, 181 00:18:34,630 --> 00:18:41,450 in the energy diversification and economic diversification plans that would also be pro-environment. 182 00:18:41,450 --> 00:18:43,640 And I'm not going to go into this next graph here, 183 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:49,820 but this is an example of the challenge of greenhouse gas emissions from Kuwait, and they're not by accident, 184 00:18:49,820 --> 00:18:58,610 but they're methane and other emissions as well as there's levels of detail at that level for the different countries now, 185 00:18:58,610 --> 00:19:03,920 because as I mentioned, there's been high consumption and high emissions that also contributed to high pollution. 186 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:09,170 And that also contributes to global low air quality compared with the rest of the world. 187 00:19:09,170 --> 00:19:12,080 And this is data from the World Health Organisation, 188 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:22,220 where the Pakistan has basically a level of pollution and PM2.5 concentrations of the Boltons that are some of the highest in the world, 189 00:19:22,220 --> 00:19:26,480 significantly higher than the World Health Organisation's guidelines. 190 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:31,730 So this clearly would be an environmental concern, but also, of course, it's a health concern, 191 00:19:31,730 --> 00:19:38,740 and it also matters when it comes to productivity and it has an economic cost as well. 192 00:19:38,740 --> 00:19:43,420 I can't talk about the Middle East without talking about water, because the GCC, 193 00:19:43,420 --> 00:19:48,760 the Gulf states are significantly challenged when it comes to fresh water, there's a huge shortage. 194 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:56,710 A lot of the water that they use comes from desalination, the sea water, and they have some of the world's largest desalination programmes. 195 00:19:56,710 --> 00:20:01,720 But at the same time, they have some of the most unique soil and marine environments. 196 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,230 And part of the problem with this is that it increases the climate change. 197 00:20:05,230 --> 00:20:09,730 An increase of global temperature also affects the acidity of the water. 198 00:20:09,730 --> 00:20:16,390 It affects the ecosystems. It affects the quality of the coastal and marine environment. 199 00:20:16,390 --> 00:20:24,160 Also, silent ocean. There's a lot of pumping of extra chemicals sometimes, as well as saline solutions back into the water, which also affects us. 200 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:30,400 So this has a significant really future term environmental problem. 201 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,870 And this matters. The environment matters for multiple reasons. 202 00:20:34,870 --> 00:20:38,980 The MENA region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. 203 00:20:38,980 --> 00:20:47,920 Also, the rise in temperature means that we will over time require more energy inputs for the same amount of demand that we have. 204 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:56,370 So that means lower energy efficiency, but also there's increasing demand purely because the populations are growing. 205 00:20:56,370 --> 00:21:04,050 And that will, in turn, means increase demand and pressure on the water resources and the other differently sources that are available. 206 00:21:04,050 --> 00:21:10,920 Also not just for desalination, which is expected to go forth in full, but also the cooling requirements. 207 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,900 It also has an economic cost. 208 00:21:12,900 --> 00:21:19,170 I would mention very briefly effects on health and productivity and what that means with rising health costs and the school cost. 209 00:21:19,170 --> 00:21:27,930 But it also affects GDP. And just as an example, this the data from the World Bank that says the expected economic losses from this climate 210 00:21:27,930 --> 00:21:34,410 related water scarcity is between six to 14 percent loss of GDP between now and mid-century. 211 00:21:34,410 --> 00:21:39,990 So if you compound that effect of over the different sources of where the environment is challenged, 212 00:21:39,990 --> 00:21:49,870 we can expect the cost to be very high at various different levels and you can see why the challenge of the environment is really serious. 213 00:21:49,870 --> 00:21:59,020 Now we get to maybe kind of showing you a little bit more of these visions that I mentioned earlier and where or if the environment fits in them. 214 00:21:59,020 --> 00:22:03,790 So I did mention those visions. I'll mention them quite briefly. 215 00:22:03,790 --> 00:22:07,720 What I want to mention here in the section, I'm going to go over the visuals in detail. 216 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:14,440 I'm just gonna give you a brief idea of what language they use and where the war of environments in them. 217 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:20,350 And I must say that they're aligned with sustainable development goals of the United Nations. 218 00:22:20,350 --> 00:22:27,400 And if you look at the Sustainable Development Goals, of which there are 17 are few that mention the environment for the environment. 219 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:34,690 The climate like below water on land, but also in things like sustainable cities as well as clean water as well. 220 00:22:34,690 --> 00:22:42,220 So in goals and the SDGs environment is featured across multiple goals and vision. 221 00:22:42,220 --> 00:22:49,990 However, the environment comes usually as one element or one pillar and a most of the guess. 222 00:22:49,990 --> 00:22:57,310 The environmental regulatory framework comes not so much from the visuals, but really from the different ministries that exist, 223 00:22:57,310 --> 00:23:02,920 that concern or have the mandate of taking care of anything and environment related. 224 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:09,030 But here, I just want to give you a couple of examples. It says on the left hand side vision. 225 00:23:09,030 --> 00:23:12,300 Twenty twenty one vision 2021 from the UAE. 226 00:23:12,300 --> 00:23:21,900 You see, the priorities have, for example, preserving diversity, safe and fair judiciary, knowledge, economy, 227 00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:27,880 education and health care, and only one over here which promises sustainable environment and infrastructure. 228 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:36,040 Look at the one on the right, there is part and that also has mostly social human development and economic development, 229 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:40,360 and then the environment and sustainability comes as one killer. 230 00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:47,320 Here's an example of if you look at books, we read the text of the visions, there is a bit usually a paragraph or so on the environment. 231 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:57,100 And here's an example from Vision 2030 from Saudi Arabia, where it says the following says achieving environmental sustainability has a goal, 232 00:23:57,100 --> 00:24:02,300 and they want to do that by driving for environment and natural resources, 233 00:24:02,300 --> 00:24:08,890 the environment and natural resources, then very reason as part of our responsibility for future generations. 234 00:24:08,890 --> 00:24:17,680 It mentions this incident of waste management, recycling projects and fighting pollution and sophistication. 235 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,780 It also talks about water. 236 00:24:19,780 --> 00:24:26,200 And then finally, of course, renewable water basically means taking renewable energy and using that to desalinate the water. 237 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:34,940 And then the final bit here, which I didn't mention or it didn't clear in blue or green, which is basically because a natural reserve from Ireland. 238 00:24:34,940 --> 00:24:43,410 So this is really a framework, even though it's a bit vague, but there is some element of the environment that is mentioned. 239 00:24:43,410 --> 00:24:49,500 If we really look at the and read them one by one, we find that the visions have no reference to climate change, 240 00:24:49,500 --> 00:24:53,970 except for a man that you do not mention reducing carbon footprint. 241 00:24:53,970 --> 00:24:59,440 There's very limited references to pollution, and the example from Saudi Arabia that I mentioned is one. 242 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:03,700 Also, if you're really more frames in times of even the environment, 243 00:25:03,700 --> 00:25:10,300 it's more frames in terms of how it shoots and supports the national economy and supporting and or alleviating, 244 00:25:10,300 --> 00:25:18,520 I could say it's social and economic concerns. But there's also an emphasis, which I believe is really the main Vladamir. 245 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:26,440 And a lot of the projects that have followed these mission is this big emphasis on really having great economies, great economies, 246 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:34,870 not just in oil and gas anymore, but also being gateways for trade, finance, tourism and really important links to the rest of the world. 247 00:25:34,870 --> 00:25:37,060 And this positioning is very clear, 248 00:25:37,060 --> 00:25:44,530 and I'll show you in a little bit really kind of being positioned as really leaders and not just regionally, but also globally. 249 00:25:44,530 --> 00:25:49,600 And that really seems to be the drive of why divisions are created and why 250 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:55,600 the economic diversification plans are really what they're trying to achieve. 251 00:25:55,600 --> 00:26:00,520 Is the one that augments vision, I should say, is the one that occurs the most to the environment. 252 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:06,260 Because of that, I want to give you examples of how environmental looked at in the magnificent. 253 00:26:06,260 --> 00:26:11,690 And the environment and natural resources specifically are listed as a national priority. 254 00:26:11,690 --> 00:26:19,340 Mostly, what really matters is, again, we see the wording of support the mastic economy, the national economy. 255 00:26:19,340 --> 00:26:20,570 There is a balance, of course, 256 00:26:20,570 --> 00:26:27,770 between what the environment needs as well as the performance of collective Reykjavik needs is really interesting about this is that in Richmond, 257 00:26:27,770 --> 00:26:30,710 once in the last era, 258 00:26:30,710 --> 00:26:40,820 the last quick point to lead the aim is actually move towards the use of raw materials and manufacturing goods instead of exporting them, as is. 259 00:26:40,820 --> 00:26:47,090 What that means is instead of exporting natural resources, they want to use them in manufacturing and export the manufacturing. 260 00:26:47,090 --> 00:26:52,820 So again, the use of the raw materials is not being to preserve it, so to speak, and that is preserving the environment, 261 00:26:52,820 --> 00:26:58,670 but really using it for diversification purposes and producing or exporting other goods. 262 00:26:58,670 --> 00:27:05,170 Manufacturing in this case other than oil and gas. Here's another example from the UAE. 263 00:27:05,170 --> 00:27:12,310 The reason I thought it would be good to mention the UAE because the UAE has perhaps been a 264 00:27:12,310 --> 00:27:19,600 leader across the states in trying to preserve the environment and having more carbon friendly. 265 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:25,870 Let me say projects before the other states in this case in the UAE. 266 00:27:25,870 --> 00:27:31,760 Again, there is an importance of protecting the environment protection and ensuring 267 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,500 the state or the government country is attracting business and investment. 268 00:27:35,500 --> 00:27:40,780 So you can see again, we're looking at what how we as a country look to the outside world. 269 00:27:40,780 --> 00:27:44,500 There is a reference to in the past and nurturing a sustainable environment, 270 00:27:44,500 --> 00:27:51,280 but a lot of this is really linked to family cohesion, values rather than the actual environmental resources. 271 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:57,190 And then there's also a lot of linked with preserving the natural environment for national initiative. 272 00:27:57,190 --> 00:28:04,660 So it is important that the target isn't necessarily protecting the domestic resources to the point that they should be. 273 00:28:04,660 --> 00:28:12,680 But really, how do we meet international initiatives and kind of appear to be conscientious from a global perspective? 274 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,330 So this is another example from Saudi Arabia and the. 275 00:28:17,330 --> 00:28:25,320 And here you can see know it's probably very small, maybe something I cannot see them amongst the various different targets I did mentioned earlier, 276 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:32,210 the performance was listed in the foggy vision is to be achieved. 277 00:28:32,210 --> 00:28:41,540 For example, number one wants our current position at twenty five top of trees on the Global Competitiveness Index. 278 00:28:41,540 --> 00:28:45,980 So a lot of the language and this is an example of the language certain around positions 279 00:28:45,980 --> 00:28:50,870 and then obviously projects that have been achieved or after as a result of the visions. 280 00:28:50,870 --> 00:28:55,640 A lot of the language is kind of basically centring around achieving a status. 281 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,460 As one of the largest economies in the world, one of the most competitive. 282 00:28:58,460 --> 00:29:05,570 But it also has things like, you know, increasing competitiveness, localisation of energy production management, 283 00:29:05,570 --> 00:29:12,860 expanding the role of the oil and gas industry and even the growing gas industry also still being an important part. 284 00:29:12,860 --> 00:29:19,880 Which one would understand being an important parts even in this new vision of energy and economic diversification? 285 00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:25,460 And there's a limited environmental references, but as I mentioned before, it's mostly to waste management and pollution. 286 00:29:25,460 --> 00:29:33,800 But a lot of the projects don't seem to be achieving or targeting a lot of the issues that I mentioned earlier with the environment, 287 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:41,050 whether they were high emissions, for example, or the issue of water shortages or even pollution. 288 00:29:41,050 --> 00:29:46,900 Can we see another emphasis again on economic achievement from global near how we rank at a global perspective, 289 00:29:46,900 --> 00:29:56,890 and here is an example for from bottom left hand side from Bahrain, where Bahrain celebrating the fourth most improved economy. 290 00:29:56,890 --> 00:30:04,000 And with Qatar an important showing or displaying excellent sustainability at the World Cup in 2022. 291 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:11,410 And then obviously for Saudi Arabia, there's also examples of Saudi Aramco's strategic transformation programmes and 292 00:30:11,410 --> 00:30:18,190 the idea when basically enlarging its FDI and natural transformative programmes. 293 00:30:18,190 --> 00:30:28,110 So again, we see that giving this large scale economy or economic achievement is really a driver in the in the vision. 294 00:30:28,110 --> 00:30:35,940 I hope now that the point of this past section was really to kind of show that the role of the environment in the visions has been really limited, 295 00:30:35,940 --> 00:30:39,360 even though the environment has features as as a goal, 296 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:46,440 but it often kind of is just part of a longer vision or idea of a sustainable living without really 297 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:53,550 big emphasis on improving the quality of the environment and resources that exist in the Gulf. 298 00:30:53,550 --> 00:30:57,760 However, there have been some recent developments that are very positive on the environment front, 299 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:02,310 and so this is I don't want to come across as on, you know, this is doom and gloom. 300 00:31:02,310 --> 00:31:06,390 Not necessarily. But part of the recent developments that I want to show, 301 00:31:06,390 --> 00:31:15,810 because they're really very much important and also in the right direction that I think helps the environment and overall sustainability. 302 00:31:15,810 --> 00:31:20,940 So example again, this is not a comprehensive list of examples. 303 00:31:20,940 --> 00:31:29,040 In the U.S., for example, there has been the most upsetting with the first zero carbon city in the world, and this is not new. 304 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:34,860 I think it's from about 2000, and so it's kind of been going on for for some time. 305 00:31:34,860 --> 00:31:47,210 Also in the U.S., there's a nuclear power plant also known to increase the share of clean electricity in the domestic economy. 306 00:31:47,210 --> 00:31:52,580 For example, Saudi Arabia is the new city, Neom is a giga project. 307 00:31:52,580 --> 00:31:54,410 Billion dollars project, very massive. 308 00:31:54,410 --> 00:32:00,620 But the idea of just creating a whole city that is pretty much self-sustaining and also very carbon neutral and friendly, 309 00:32:00,620 --> 00:32:07,820 and there have been some projects with the name that have been, for example, hydrogen projects I'll talk about in a little bit. 310 00:32:07,820 --> 00:32:11,450 But a hydrogen project that also is a green hydrogen project. 311 00:32:11,450 --> 00:32:17,780 So producing or creating a new source of energy that is also clean and can be exported importantly. 312 00:32:17,780 --> 00:32:25,820 So it hits that economic diversification target. It's also the green initiative that was announced in March 2021, 313 00:32:25,820 --> 00:32:34,070 whereby Saudi Arabia committed to planting kindling queens in the desert and there's about like one percent that's been achieved so far. 314 00:32:34,070 --> 00:32:39,770 It's also got 40 million or so to this point and also across the Middle East. 315 00:32:39,770 --> 00:32:43,610 Again, very positive going forward in Kuwait. 316 00:32:43,610 --> 00:32:51,620 This won't be one of my favourite examples because there has been a very domestic project and aimed at not really exports, 317 00:32:51,620 --> 00:32:57,920 but just really improving the domestic livelihood of transforming a tyre graveyard to a smart city. 318 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:04,760 And this was in the news about a month ago or so with the idea of having over 20000 houses that will be built on the city. 319 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:10,400 So again, we see and this is obviously a very important from the environmental perspective, but also the economic perspective. 320 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:15,950 Because tires pollute the environment, they're when they're burned, they're really bad for pollution, et cetera. 321 00:33:15,950 --> 00:33:21,650 And also they just exist there. So what do you do with them unless you transform them to something usable and recyclable? 322 00:33:21,650 --> 00:33:29,150 And then finally, you know, man, there's been initiatives for cleaning natural reserves and water and ocean, 323 00:33:29,150 --> 00:33:32,840 which have date back, I think, from 2016 onwards, as far as I know. 324 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:41,610 But it's possible that they've actually started before that. So there's some recent achievements and really good achievements that I exist. 325 00:33:41,610 --> 00:33:45,750 Another achievements as well for a mention of the very beginning, the hydrogen stuff, 326 00:33:45,750 --> 00:33:51,210 and I've written quite a bit on this, but I just want to give you an idea of what hydrogen is and how it fits in this. 327 00:33:51,210 --> 00:33:57,870 So hydrogen is know we it's one of the most abundant, actually the most abundant elements on Earth. 328 00:33:57,870 --> 00:34:06,750 But hydrogen has been known to be very useful in energy applications because it can be used for energy. 329 00:34:06,750 --> 00:34:10,830 It solves that aircraft carrier or even a storage medium, and it can be. 330 00:34:10,830 --> 00:34:20,460 It has various different applications, and importantly, because hydrogen and nature exist by itself, it exists with other elements. 331 00:34:20,460 --> 00:34:27,870 For example, it would water. It's H2O can remember middle school forestry or with hydrocarbons, it's with the carbon. 332 00:34:27,870 --> 00:34:33,210 Basically, what that means is that hydrogen can be separated from the different elements that we have. 333 00:34:33,210 --> 00:34:40,410 So that means that we can also use water, for example, to separate the hydrogen from it using green renewable power. 334 00:34:40,410 --> 00:34:47,310 And if we use that the renewable power through a process called electrolysis to get a hydrogen that is called green hydrogen. 335 00:34:47,310 --> 00:34:52,140 So this is the cleanest hydrogen, if you will. But then we can also use hydrocarbons, 336 00:34:52,140 --> 00:34:57,570 the oil and gas and natural coal and oil and natural gas and hydrogen with just 337 00:34:57,570 --> 00:35:02,940 a moment probably the most about 90 percent of the world's hydrogen this way. 338 00:35:02,940 --> 00:35:05,400 But then that emits a lot of carbon. 339 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:13,710 If we capture that carbon through apologies of carbon capture and sequestration and storage, then that becomes blue. 340 00:35:13,710 --> 00:35:23,030 What that means is we can still use hydrocarbons to get a hydrogen, a clean hydrogen, and we actually have a solution for the carbon. 341 00:35:23,030 --> 00:35:31,640 Because of these properties and the ability to use hydrogen in local consumption for decarbonisation purposes, but also for exports, 342 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:42,250 hydrogen has become really an important as kind of been looked at as the golden solution, so to speak, for future energy needs. 343 00:35:42,250 --> 00:35:47,100 That meets the world's needs for clean energy, but also energy in general. 344 00:35:47,100 --> 00:35:51,300 But here's the batch and quite tricky thing of last year, 345 00:35:51,300 --> 00:35:58,950 there was about 20 countries in the world that have had either established hydrogen projects or established 346 00:35:58,950 --> 00:36:05,820 hydrogen strategies of how to develop markets and export them or use the hydrogen and domestic industries. 347 00:36:05,820 --> 00:36:11,280 Gulf countries have been really lagging and behind, but we see them starting to catch up. 348 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:22,170 So in Saudi Arabia in 2020, I did mention the large city of Neom with this idea of green hydrogen and the clean hydrogen from renewable energy. 349 00:36:22,170 --> 00:36:28,200 Also, importantly, there was a blue ammonia cargo that, with the pan ammonia, 350 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:33,120 also carries nitrogen and hydrogen so the ammonia can be then shipped to Japan. 351 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:38,160 And it's Japan separated what we call cracks to separate the hydrogen from it. 352 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:47,480 So here is an example again, where hydrogen opportunity is being used for the export market and not decarbonising the domestic system. 353 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:53,240 And then also, Saudi Arabia did adopt a hydrogen strategy a few months ago, and by August of this year, 354 00:36:53,240 --> 00:36:58,760 the UAE also has had some of the largest energy projects across the region, 355 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:03,380 but also it included the region's first industrial scale green hydrogen project that 356 00:37:03,380 --> 00:37:09,020 was also announced in twenty twenty one and then also has a hydrogen economy strategy, 357 00:37:09,020 --> 00:37:17,210 as well as projects to advance the hydrogen again. A green hydrogen project with the idea of most of these will be targeting the export market. 358 00:37:17,210 --> 00:37:21,650 And then finally, in Kuwait, there has been a white paper towards a national hydrogen strategy, 359 00:37:21,650 --> 00:37:25,550 but without actual projects announced or a strategy put forth. 360 00:37:25,550 --> 00:37:32,690 But again, what what this shows is the the Gulf states are really catching up to kind of not 361 00:37:32,690 --> 00:37:37,520 just do what was in the visions of having financial centres and tourist centres, 362 00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,090 et cetera, in their economic diversification plan. 363 00:37:41,090 --> 00:37:50,150 But really looking at how do we join the energy transition process and use a diversification of energy as also a source of economic diversification, 364 00:37:50,150 --> 00:37:53,270 which someone economic perspective makes a lot of sense, of course. 365 00:37:53,270 --> 00:37:59,360 But the role of that in the domestic environment remains to be very little at the moment. 366 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:06,890 Will be the most remarkable change that has happened related to the environment in the Gulf states as the recent historic 367 00:38:06,890 --> 00:38:14,040 announcements of net zero emissions commitments by the UAE to achieve that to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, 368 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:24,890 followed by Saudi Arabia in 2016, Bahrain and 2060. Now, of course, there is a cop going on and I'll be joining them tomorrow, as you have heard. 369 00:38:24,890 --> 00:38:35,210 But with that with the cop, these like old states, this is not just the Gulf states have had to submit new commitments, so to speak to the UNFCCC. 370 00:38:35,210 --> 00:38:42,200 So with new intended nationally determined contributions and in them committing to what they believe they will. 371 00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,560 How much they will reduce their emissions by. 372 00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:54,080 And what's interesting in the new indices submission is that the emphasis there is still on the role of hydrocarbons that still 373 00:38:54,080 --> 00:39:01,880 exist as an important role in the economy and focussing on diversifying the domestic economy as a way to reduce emissions, 374 00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:09,110 as well as using carbon capture mechanisms as well. So there really, I think, needs to be more details on how that will happen. 375 00:39:09,110 --> 00:39:18,170 But it sounds that there isn't this idea that is presented of having completely transformative or completely new projects to save the environment, 376 00:39:18,170 --> 00:39:24,830 so to speak, but more on kind of just addressing emissions and diversification. 377 00:39:24,830 --> 00:39:34,380 Another important element to this whole carbon emissions story, which is the circular carbon economy, and this is not a new idea at all, 378 00:39:34,380 --> 00:39:45,360 but I'm mentioning it in a separate slide because in Saudi Arabia's announcement of reducing emissions by or achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, 379 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:49,620 a big part of the way that they will achieve that will rely on circular carbon economy. 380 00:39:49,620 --> 00:39:57,540 And what that means is basically ways to be able to continue to use fossil fuels and other methods that emit carbon. 381 00:39:57,540 --> 00:40:05,580 But then finding technologies that can capture that carbon that is emitted and then either finding different uses for it or storing it in oil wells, 382 00:40:05,580 --> 00:40:09,960 for example, or using it for other purposes. And think about this. 383 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:15,140 This was adopted also with the E20 that was held in Saudi Arabia last year. 384 00:40:15,140 --> 00:40:21,270 And the thing about this is that it offers a kind of a flexible approach of handling 385 00:40:21,270 --> 00:40:25,680 or for different countries to really target and have a solution for carbon. 386 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:32,460 There also, as you said, that the Green Initiative Forum and I've mentioned that the the his quote here, 387 00:40:32,460 --> 00:40:39,520 there's still an emphasis on not going away from fossil fuels, but continuing to use fossil fuels in the picture. 388 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,350 We're going to conclude now, 389 00:40:41,350 --> 00:40:48,970 so I just want to give you an idea of even though I have now shown you how the environment has had a limited role in the vision, 390 00:40:48,970 --> 00:40:58,180 and even though we have had no very recently more pro-environment or more pro climate developments on the energy and economic diversification front, 391 00:40:58,180 --> 00:41:05,500 I still believe environment is discounted. And I'm going to give you a couple of examples here because remember environment that I'm talking about 392 00:41:05,500 --> 00:41:11,350 here is not just a contribution to the rest of the world in terms of what we export being green, 393 00:41:11,350 --> 00:41:20,350 but also how it affects the domestic environment. And I'll give very briefly a few ideas to make my point as evidence. 394 00:41:20,350 --> 00:41:26,610 First one is very requirements and harmonisation regulatory framework in these states and across all the states, 395 00:41:26,610 --> 00:41:33,220 across the different domains of carbon. There's either a lack of implicit regulation or lack of regulation altogether. 396 00:41:33,220 --> 00:41:38,930 And sometimes when there is regulation, it can be quite inadequate. 397 00:41:38,930 --> 00:41:44,090 In addition, there is low research and development furnitures on low carbon energy, 398 00:41:44,090 --> 00:41:47,840 and this is important as a driver for the hydrogen economy that I described, 399 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:53,660 as well as all the circular carbon economy that I also mentioned, which can be a fantastic solution. 400 00:41:53,660 --> 00:42:01,250 They're really driven by improvements in technology, and there was very was so really behind the technologies, 401 00:42:01,250 --> 00:42:07,400 particularly to make hydrogen a low carbon energy options price competitive with fossil fuels. 402 00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:16,010 The Gulf states have historically and still have very low a share of GDP being spent on R&D development. 403 00:42:16,010 --> 00:42:21,200 And if you compare that to the highest in the world between banks 10 from Korea to the US, 404 00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:25,850 ranging from four point three to approximately three percent of GDP in the Gulf, 405 00:42:25,850 --> 00:42:30,830 it has exceeded one percent, except for the UAE in the past couple of years. 406 00:42:30,830 --> 00:42:38,980 And the same when it comes to green hydrogen acknowledges. In addition, the third reason is, even though we have these massive plans, for example, 407 00:42:38,980 --> 00:42:44,470 to establish green hydrogen, which relies on renewables, renewable energy still remains very, 408 00:42:44,470 --> 00:42:49,840 very low and the Gulf states there are ambitious plans as part of this vision, 409 00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:55,750 relying on hydrogen cities on renewables anywhere from 15 percent in the case of Kuwait, 410 00:42:55,750 --> 00:43:00,250 all the way to about forty five percent in UAE and Saudi then. 411 00:43:00,250 --> 00:43:07,470 At the moment, we saw about less than three percent on average of installed capacity being from renewables. 412 00:43:07,470 --> 00:43:11,180 So there's really slow development. 413 00:43:11,180 --> 00:43:18,590 Another reason is that we saw of a slow progress on a lot of the programmes within visions are particularly environment driven. 414 00:43:18,590 --> 00:43:22,490 And here's one example, and various provisions are maybe ahead of others. 415 00:43:22,490 --> 00:43:29,210 But this is an example from Kuwait looking at the different projects they have for the sustainable living environment pillar. 416 00:43:29,210 --> 00:43:32,690 And you see, when it comes to the air quality and the renewable energy, 417 00:43:32,690 --> 00:43:40,460 they're very much behind in terms of the progress achieved to meet the project completion by the day and driven. 418 00:43:40,460 --> 00:43:45,920 There's it seems to be when it comes to sewage and waste management, a bit more advancements on that front. 419 00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:55,250 But overall will, so they're still behind schedule. And that also leads me to the other point that environment remains in a state of degradation. 420 00:43:55,250 --> 00:44:04,700 And for example, even though the UAE had lost the city, which was the first carbon neutral city in the world by stands, 421 00:44:04,700 --> 00:44:13,310 one of the as the most polluted city in the Gulf, but also the other cities across the region Ahmadi, Riyadh or Baghdad. 422 00:44:13,310 --> 00:44:20,450 There are also very few cities, and at the moment, even the greenhouse gas emissions remain very high. 423 00:44:20,450 --> 00:44:28,130 I admit that there seems to be improvement in the eye and I.R.A. the commitments submitted to the UNFCCC, 424 00:44:28,130 --> 00:44:33,240 but still, there is no real example of how that will affect the environment. 425 00:44:33,240 --> 00:44:39,630 And then finally, I should say another challenge is the fact that there is financial constraints on the 426 00:44:39,630 --> 00:44:45,180 financial constraints means less money that could support projects that help the environment. 427 00:44:45,180 --> 00:44:49,260 And then finally, for a final fund, which is the subsidies, 428 00:44:49,260 --> 00:44:53,820 because if you continue to have subsidies, particularly if you have subsidies for clean energy, 429 00:44:53,820 --> 00:45:01,740 then what that would mean it would reduce the existing part that could be exported, expand the part that is used domestically. 430 00:45:01,740 --> 00:45:09,720 But the cost of that will be obviously fiscal costs. So this will be what we call the distortion from in the economic literature. 431 00:45:09,720 --> 00:45:20,540 And that would also not necessarily achieve the best ideal use of resources that could also maximise the role of or the protection of the environment. 432 00:45:20,540 --> 00:45:26,440 In summary, I guess the environment has not been necessarily despite large improvements, 433 00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:31,600 it hasn't been the primary motivator to date in terms of economic and energy diversification. 434 00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:41,300 However, I think it remains an important element that needs to be addressed, particularly for to maximise energy and economic sustainability. 435 00:45:41,300 --> 00:45:49,930 Thank you very much for listening to this long fox, and I would very much love to hear your questions and discuss them. 436 00:45:49,930 --> 00:45:54,100 OK, we have my colleague, Michael Willis, has been curating the questions, 437 00:45:54,100 --> 00:45:57,280 so I'm going to turn it over to him to bring our questions from the audience. 438 00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:03,010 I have a couple of questions of my own, but we do have audience questions, so I think we should give priority to those. 439 00:46:03,010 --> 00:46:09,310 Thank you very much. Well, thank you very much. Meanwhile, we have about I think we'll be about 10 minutes the questions. 440 00:46:09,310 --> 00:46:11,770 So I'll go through some of the questions here. 441 00:46:11,770 --> 00:46:20,390 The first one really deals if something you deal with right on your last screen, which focuses on the international dimension of this. 442 00:46:20,390 --> 00:46:24,730 And this comes from Yacine Yildirim. Thank you for your question. 443 00:46:24,730 --> 00:46:31,180 And the question is by considering the green theory in international relations to overcome most common environmental 444 00:46:31,180 --> 00:46:39,850 problems in the Gulf is relying on intra regional collaboration amongst Gulf nations a realistic or convenient way? 445 00:46:39,850 --> 00:46:47,020 Or do we need more effective method like global cooperation processes with the contribution of other middle nations? 446 00:46:47,020 --> 00:46:52,700 Quite possibly under the supervision of the United Nations? Very much for the question, 447 00:46:52,700 --> 00:47:01,130 I think part of the problem is a lot of the UN or international level mandates or regulation are not really compulsory, right? 448 00:47:01,130 --> 00:47:04,670 There is an issue of regulatory compliance here, 449 00:47:04,670 --> 00:47:13,820 but I do very much believe that a lot of the the region as a whole and despite the the borders of the nation state has the same challenges. 450 00:47:13,820 --> 00:47:19,580 And I think that will benefit significantly if there's cooperation, both in terms of particularly, 451 00:47:19,580 --> 00:47:23,750 for example, when it comes to oceans and waters that are open across the countries. 452 00:47:23,750 --> 00:47:29,360 I think there will be significant benefit when it comes to having or targeting that from a regional level. 453 00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:37,370 But I also believe, particularly with the point that I mentioned earlier on the low R&D point, as well as the fiscal restraint. 454 00:47:37,370 --> 00:47:44,270 I also think there's probably an opportunity for a regional collaboration similar this across Europe, 455 00:47:44,270 --> 00:47:49,070 but to see it across the two states where they pull resources together and also 456 00:47:49,070 --> 00:47:55,040 focus that on maybe having a region wide R&D centre or region wide hydrogen centre, 457 00:47:55,040 --> 00:48:01,930 cetera. And I'll stop here as I'm cognisant of other questions and almost. 458 00:48:01,930 --> 00:48:08,230 Thank you very much. Meanwhile, we're getting quite a few questions that people are actually fascinated by the data that 459 00:48:08,230 --> 00:48:15,310 you've been putting off and whether your slides in the presentation will be available. That's to let you know that we will be making it available. 460 00:48:15,310 --> 00:48:22,810 A recording will be put out both a sound recording on SoundCloud and on the YouTube channel that will take a little while, just edits and puts out. 461 00:48:22,810 --> 00:48:28,180 So do keep an eye on the Middle East Centre social media outputs where that will come through on that. 462 00:48:28,180 --> 00:48:33,610 So to those, if you ask me about that because there's a lot of information about absolute fascinating information. 463 00:48:33,610 --> 00:48:40,150 OK, another question Sami Fahmy asks You looked at the hydrogen issue and he wants to know 464 00:48:40,150 --> 00:48:47,450 is the hydrogen cost competitive in the economies that you've been looking at tonight? 465 00:48:47,450 --> 00:48:55,370 An excellent question, because if it's not competitive, then it would not make sense to get into it from an economic diversification perspective. 466 00:48:55,370 --> 00:49:02,090 So I have to say that clean hydrogen at the moment in general across the world is not competitive with oil and gas, 467 00:49:02,090 --> 00:49:08,660 and with that in coal, what that means is oil and gas and coal are cheaper to us than green hydrogen. 468 00:49:08,660 --> 00:49:14,360 Having said, though, Gulf region, compared to other regions, have a comparative potential, 469 00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:17,900 I should say potential comparative advantage in the production of both blue hydrogen, 470 00:49:17,900 --> 00:49:23,390 which is hydrogen from fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration technology, 471 00:49:23,390 --> 00:49:29,330 as well as a potential comparative advantage in the production of green hydrogen, which relies on renewables. 472 00:49:29,330 --> 00:49:35,210 And I didn't really mention the fact that renewables, even though I mentioned they're low, 473 00:49:35,210 --> 00:49:40,100 but the quality of the renewable resources that exists in the Gulf is amongst the best in the world. 474 00:49:40,100 --> 00:49:45,890 And also what that means is that they're able to produce some of the lowest renewable energy globally. 475 00:49:45,890 --> 00:49:48,320 And because of that, this will also translate, 476 00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:55,340 particularly for green hydrogen and producing low hydrogen costs very competitive with the rest of the world. 477 00:49:55,340 --> 00:50:00,620 But yet there are the challenges that I mentioned in terms of the there is not enough 478 00:50:00,620 --> 00:50:05,480 renewables at the moment to be used for producing green hydrogen and for blue hydrogen. 479 00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:13,220 I think Saudi Aramco particularly is trying to really be the world leader in blue hydrogen space. 480 00:50:13,220 --> 00:50:19,100 And they do have a potential comparative advantage because of their comparative advantage in the hydrocarbon space. 481 00:50:19,100 --> 00:50:25,880 But for that to compete with fossil fuels and completely replace them, I think we need to either see carbon taxes, for example, 482 00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:34,000 or some sort of a different structure and the change sorry at a structural change in the price of energy sources. 483 00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,780 Thank you very much, man, Allan, next question coming from Becky Evans, 484 00:50:37,780 --> 00:50:43,660 who comes from Ursula's college, I hope I'm pronouncing that and the sign of a sign of somebody. 485 00:50:43,660 --> 00:50:44,890 Thank you very much. 486 00:50:44,890 --> 00:50:51,340 Yeah, as you can gather, the man now knows that because she's an alumnus of that college, and Becky is very proud to play me with such. 487 00:50:51,340 --> 00:51:00,490 So very pleased to have a question. Then Becky's question is, does the commitment to low carbon energy sources and environmental sustainability depend 488 00:51:00,490 --> 00:51:06,280 on the willingness of individual leaders of GCC countries to embrace such approach? 489 00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:10,570 Does domestic and or global public opinion play an influential role? 490 00:51:10,570 --> 00:51:17,930 So in other words, what are going to be the drivers of change internationally, or do we have to rely on the leaders within the states themselves? 491 00:51:17,930 --> 00:51:23,900 Greetings from Oxford scientists and hello to Becky, and thanks for the question. 492 00:51:23,900 --> 00:51:31,850 Yes, actually, this is a very important question because it does go into the point of the drive or the motivation for low carbon technologies. 493 00:51:31,850 --> 00:51:36,980 I think if you listen, for example, to the Saudi announcement, 494 00:51:36,980 --> 00:51:43,220 there has been a lot of talk about or use of language like we want to be leading in the world, 495 00:51:43,220 --> 00:51:50,420 we want to be known for being the leaders and in climate technologies and or circular carbon economy. 496 00:51:50,420 --> 00:51:57,770 So there's definitely an emphasis or interest of moving, joining really the energy transition step, 497 00:51:57,770 --> 00:52:03,590 which has started to scale already and kind of joining that from being not only oil and gas leaders, 498 00:52:03,590 --> 00:52:06,500 but to energy transition leaders and also their reputation. 499 00:52:06,500 --> 00:52:14,000 And this is really came across very vividly in the past month or so with the net zero emission targets. 500 00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:18,650 What's been really interesting in that is also this it's not just the reputation. 501 00:52:18,650 --> 00:52:21,740 I think that's important, but this position as global leaders. 502 00:52:21,740 --> 00:52:28,400 And also another thing that's interesting in terms of the part of the question is that in the Gulf, 503 00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:35,360 the individual leaders tend to be the decision makers are obviously very important in achieving a lot of the change. 504 00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:42,920 So I think they if a lot of the change has to come from the top down, we see Kuwait, for example, 505 00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:49,250 where the parliament has more of a prominent role being really lagging in terms of achieving change. 506 00:52:49,250 --> 00:52:58,580 So I think it's interest of both the reputational interest leading the world and being the global leader in this, as well as the reputation for sure. 507 00:52:58,580 --> 00:53:05,000 Thank you. Now a couple of questions that sort of look at very similar themes about to what extent, 508 00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:09,290 what is the the moves that have been made on the environmental issue. 509 00:53:09,290 --> 00:53:12,660 A really about an image to the external world. 510 00:53:12,660 --> 00:53:16,100 We have Matteo Renzi, very good friend of the centre, 511 00:53:16,100 --> 00:53:24,150 former graduate of a centre who asked all the sort of measures been introduced what you could call ornamental environmentalism. 512 00:53:24,150 --> 00:53:33,390 And we have. That's an Alkhawaja who says all the plans for carbon neutrality really just to appease global calls for climate change. 513 00:53:33,390 --> 00:53:38,360 So is it really about maintaining an external image or is this something more than you've answered that a little bit, 514 00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:43,700 but I'd like you be nice to hear something very direct on this. OK, something very direct. 515 00:53:43,700 --> 00:53:50,180 I think what's been really interesting is the Gulf states have been considered, have been fighting, 516 00:53:50,180 --> 00:53:58,220 so to speak, to preserve the role of fossil fuels in climate negotiations and in UNFCCC circles, et cetera. 517 00:53:58,220 --> 00:54:03,140 And some have even called them trying to obstruct, so to speak, at climate negotiations. 518 00:54:03,140 --> 00:54:13,100 And we really see a 180 degree change in this year where I think there are clearly realising the world is moving towards an energy transition sphere. 519 00:54:13,100 --> 00:54:17,930 The world is really moving towards less fossil fuel consumption and more green. 520 00:54:17,930 --> 00:54:26,600 So let's join that phase. I think a big part of it, then one could argue that a lot of the projects that have been passed for sure are parts, 521 00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:33,680 and this is actually the theme of my talk is it's not really driven by the domestic interest of protecting the environment domestically, 522 00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:38,660 but really protecting this leading role as leading in the energy sphere. 523 00:54:38,660 --> 00:54:46,730 And now energy is inseparable from climate. So to be in leading in the energy sphere, you have to be a leading in the in the climate sphere as well. 524 00:54:46,730 --> 00:54:55,340 So there's definitely parts of that. But you can also read in the subtext when things say, for example, we will continue to use fossil fuels. 525 00:54:55,340 --> 00:55:04,370 There is this, I think, point that we well, the Gulf states will join the climate and be not obstructionist anymore, 526 00:55:04,370 --> 00:55:09,980 but will drive reduction in emissions, for example, and improvement of the climate conditions. 527 00:55:09,980 --> 00:55:14,030 But at the same time, it's going to be on their own terms of what they want to achieve, right? 528 00:55:14,030 --> 00:55:21,350 So one could also then there say that maybe some of the projects that the programmes are really an ornament is, as Matteo said. 529 00:55:21,350 --> 00:55:26,150 And I think there's two points to this question or two points in my answer, I should say. 530 00:55:26,150 --> 00:55:33,770 One is, I think there's definitely more. There's has to be a significant change to the way energy has been consumed, 531 00:55:33,770 --> 00:55:38,630 to the way the economy has been structure and also to a lot of the projects that exist now that really 532 00:55:38,630 --> 00:55:43,910 require significant changes for that to achieve the climate targets that these countries have made. 533 00:55:43,910 --> 00:55:48,230 And there could one could also argue, are these projects really just an ornament? 534 00:55:48,230 --> 00:55:52,400 But in their defence, we've yet to see the proof of the pudding, so to speak. 535 00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:56,570 We've yet to see what will happen in twenty thirty or twenty twenty five, for that matter. 536 00:55:56,570 --> 00:56:04,610 Will the countries be on target? I think even if they are a bit of an ornamental facade, we do see improvements on the climate front. 537 00:56:04,610 --> 00:56:08,510 So even if their motivation isn't necessarily protecting the environment, 538 00:56:08,510 --> 00:56:12,350 but to appease the rest of the world vision, they will still help the environment. 539 00:56:12,350 --> 00:56:19,390 But I don't think that would be the most productive for the environment, obviously, and most efficient for maximising sustainability. 540 00:56:19,390 --> 00:56:25,610 I hope that was direct enough for your purposes. Yes. Well, thank you very much. I hope you will say I'm sure our audience appreciate it. 541 00:56:25,610 --> 00:56:33,730 Thank you. Perhaps this will be our last question, and it addresses something that's brought up in other countries as a way of dealing. 542 00:56:33,730 --> 00:56:42,550 Environmental issue is the issue of food, particularly food waste and changing patterns of consumption, particularly reducing meat consumption. 543 00:56:42,550 --> 00:56:47,920 Has this had any presence at all in the countries that you've been looking at? 544 00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:55,470 I suspect on evidence to back it up in the air. Not that I know of and there are, you know, food consumption baskets, for example. 545 00:56:55,470 --> 00:56:59,310 I think parts of the Bhutan's of that have also included meat products. 546 00:56:59,310 --> 00:57:08,340 And that thing with that was food that is really important is the fact that most of the food consumed in Gulf states is actually imported, right? 547 00:57:08,340 --> 00:57:15,750 It is not all the domestically grown. And so then there is not just the level, at least if we talk from an environmental, 548 00:57:15,750 --> 00:57:18,510 let's say, emissions, but I think the question was on emissions level. 549 00:57:18,510 --> 00:57:22,710 The emissions from the food then, is not just the fact that whatever comes from the meat consumption, 550 00:57:22,710 --> 00:57:26,820 but also the transportation of that and securing the imports into the country. 551 00:57:26,820 --> 00:57:30,840 So that, to my knowledge, is definitely not hasn't been something that's been addressed, 552 00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:35,070 but also a number of these states, as I mentioned, are welfare states. 553 00:57:35,070 --> 00:57:42,990 Even subsidy reform has been very contentious. So also reforming or telling people, now we're going to give you less support welfare, 554 00:57:42,990 --> 00:57:47,730 but also you should start changing your your behavioural patterns when it comes to food, 555 00:57:47,730 --> 00:57:52,930 I think will be quite shocking and an environmental perspective. But there are very small. 556 00:57:52,930 --> 00:57:59,430 Not within divisions, but there are small groups within grassroot efforts, so to speak, that talk about, for example, 557 00:57:59,430 --> 00:58:04,830 sustaining the fish that comes out of the ocean because it's not sustainable and those kind of efforts, 558 00:58:04,830 --> 00:58:08,880 but nothing at a division level, as far as I know. Thank you very much. 559 00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:14,430 Unfortunately, we're rapidly approaching the end of our time, so we haven't been able to answer all the questions. 560 00:58:14,430 --> 00:58:23,930 But I'll hand you back to Walter. OK. Yes, I'm sorry that I didn't get a chance to ask my question, but I've already gone to the end. 561 00:58:23,930 --> 00:58:30,350 So on behalf of the Middle East Centre and on behalf of our very lively and competitive audience, 562 00:58:30,350 --> 00:58:35,060 I want to thank you enough for an excellent presentation. My absolute joy. 563 00:58:35,060 --> 00:58:52,344 It's been wonderful to be with all of you and many thanks for the audience and your name for hosting me today.