1 00:00:00,270 --> 00:00:06,870 Good evening and welcome to the first meeting of the Virtual Seminar of the 2 00:00:06,870 --> 00:00:12,540 Middle East Centre examining political options following the Gaza conflict. 3 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,100 My name is Eugene Rogan and as Director of the Middle East Centre. 4 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,260 It's a particular pleasure to see so many of you joining us tonight. 5 00:00:23,100 --> 00:00:27,150 Just warning of what we have in store for us for the remainder of this term. 6 00:00:32,900 --> 00:00:38,060 Does everybody have a space? This room's on the steps coming down and. 7 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:51,580 On the 7th of October 2023, following detailed plans at least two years in the making. 8 00:00:52,780 --> 00:01:00,160 Hamas disabled the perimeter fence that sealed off the Gaza Strip to launch a dawn surprise attack. 9 00:01:01,450 --> 00:01:11,740 An unconfirmed number of Hamas militiamen overrun Israeli towns, kibbutz and military bases, as well as an overnight music festival, 10 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:20,290 killing an estimated 1200 people and seizing some 240 hostages who were taken back to Gaza. 11 00:01:21,310 --> 00:01:31,840 Hamas achieved total surprise, reminiscent of the Egyptian attack on Israeli lines that had occurred on the 6th of October 1973. 12 00:01:32,530 --> 00:01:36,640 Exactly 50 days, 50 years of one day earlier. 13 00:01:38,500 --> 00:01:48,010 It took days for the Israeli army to respond and retake the towns and bases, killing some 1500 Hamas fighters in the process. 14 00:01:50,150 --> 00:01:57,140 For Israel. The scale of the horror of the attack drew immediate comparisons to America on 911. 15 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,680 If anything, the scale is far worse for Israel. 16 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:12,710 With 1500 killed or captured from a population of 7 million, compared to 3000 casualties of 911 from an American population in excess of 300 million. 17 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:21,740 Everyone knew someone who's killed or wounded or captured. People felt betrayed by their government and by their army who failed to protect 18 00:02:21,740 --> 00:02:27,080 civilians from the worst single day's losses in the history of the state of Israel. 19 00:02:27,410 --> 00:02:30,650 And the worst loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust. 20 00:02:32,420 --> 00:02:39,380 Most of all, they were horrified by what Hamas had done the indiscriminate killing of men, women and children, young and old, 21 00:02:39,980 --> 00:02:45,320 the horrors of rape and sexual violence and the seizure of civilians taking them 22 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:50,750 as hostages to share the dangers of the predictable Israeli retaliation in Gaza. 23 00:02:51,770 --> 00:02:54,770 Israel was plunged overnight into deep mourning. 24 00:02:55,310 --> 00:02:58,730 And is there still Israel? 25 00:02:58,730 --> 00:03:08,180 Friends and allies condemn the Hamas attack as terrorism reaffirmed Israel's right to self-defence and in the case of the United States, 26 00:03:08,630 --> 00:03:18,200 agreed to provide the munitions to assist Israel in their stated aim of eradicating Hamas as a movement once and for all. 27 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:26,250 The retaliation that followed soon eclipsed the horrors that Israel had suffered on seven October. 28 00:03:27,150 --> 00:03:31,560 An unprecedented level of carpet bombing of the Gaza Strip, 29 00:03:32,370 --> 00:03:41,220 often with £2,000 bombs that the American authorities objected were not designed for use in densely populated areas. 30 00:03:41,730 --> 00:03:46,020 Nothing that stopped America from resupplying those £2,000 bombs. 31 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:52,440 This led immediately to alarming casualty figures in Gaza. 32 00:03:53,490 --> 00:04:01,380 The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had dropped 29,000 bombs, munitions and shells by mid December 2023. 33 00:04:02,670 --> 00:04:08,970 The United States dropped only 3678 munitions in Iraq between 2014 2010. 34 00:04:09,300 --> 00:04:10,770 To give you an order of magnitude, 35 00:04:11,190 --> 00:04:17,610 I say only if we would have said that what America had done to Iraq was an irresponsible and disproportionate level of destruction. 36 00:04:18,300 --> 00:04:25,470 But 36, 78 shows of munitions dropped by the Americans, 29,000 by the Israelis on the Gaza Strip. 37 00:04:27,300 --> 00:04:33,270 Today, the health authorities in Gaza report nearly 24,000 Gazans killed by Israeli action. 38 00:04:33,900 --> 00:04:39,060 The majority of them are children. A figure that American officials believe is actually understatement, 39 00:04:39,420 --> 00:04:43,800 given the numbers believed to still be buried under the rubble of the destroyed houses. 40 00:04:46,460 --> 00:04:55,760 There are many destroyed houses. The Financial Times estimates over 68% of the structures in north Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. 41 00:04:56,690 --> 00:04:58,009 To flee the bombardment, 42 00:04:58,010 --> 00:05:06,500 85% of the residents of Gaza have been displaced from their homes and are suffering from exposure as they live in makeshift shelter. 43 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:14,390 Their plight is compounded by the destruction of hospitals, the lack of medication and the loss of power. 44 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:19,640 The loss of mobile connectivity and networks to the outside world. 45 00:05:20,420 --> 00:05:24,890 The loss even of access to clean water for drinking and washing and the lack of food. 46 00:05:25,790 --> 00:05:31,190 The U.N. reports that two thirds of Gazans are in immediate danger of starvation. 47 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,450 That's happened in 100 days, 101. 48 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:46,060 Not since the Second World War have we witnessed a territory emerged into such a deep humanitarian crisis at such speed. 49 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:53,930 And of course, if Israel is deep in mourning for its losses of the 7th of October, 50 00:05:54,950 --> 00:06:02,870 then one must think about what 20 times the casualty figures means for a population smaller than one third the size of Israel's in 101 days. 51 00:06:03,590 --> 00:06:06,740 So I would put to you that the Palestinians are deeply in mourning. 52 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:10,850 And what has been accomplished by military means. 53 00:06:12,070 --> 00:06:17,740 Hamas has shattered Israeli security and Israel's citizens confidence in their government and their army. 54 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:24,070 If that was an objective that was encouraging Israel by its response to attacks by Hamas, 55 00:06:25,420 --> 00:06:31,600 has effectively turned Arab public opinion against Israel, scuttling any further initiatives for normalisation. 56 00:06:32,170 --> 00:06:35,320 Notably those between Saudi Arabia and Israel. 57 00:06:37,300 --> 00:06:42,610 Hamas has also demonstrated to a complacent international community that Palestinians 58 00:06:42,610 --> 00:06:47,050 are not reconciled to living under open ended Israeli occupation or domination. 59 00:06:47,650 --> 00:06:51,010 The Palestine question cannot be overlooked. It must be addressed. 60 00:06:52,990 --> 00:06:58,270 Israel, for its part, has inflicted unprecedented damage on Hamas through its militia, 61 00:06:58,840 --> 00:07:02,890 to its arms stores, to its weapons, to its weapon making capacity. 62 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,610 Its extensive network of underground tunnels. 63 00:07:09,230 --> 00:07:17,870 But its overall aim of the destruction of Hamas remains elusive and the methods it is using come at two higher 64 00:07:17,870 --> 00:07:25,580 cost to civilians for most of the international community to continue to support Israel's campaign indefinitely. 65 00:07:29,300 --> 00:07:32,840 Wallace remains in deep mourning over its losses of seven of October. 66 00:07:33,590 --> 00:07:38,480 The unresolved fate of over 100 hostages believed to be remain in Hamas's hands. 67 00:07:39,290 --> 00:07:42,980 They faced growing opposition in the streets of some of its closest allies. 68 00:07:43,700 --> 00:07:48,799 As Palestinian casualties exceed 20 times Israel's losses, not counting the wounded, 69 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:56,870 the amputees and just another huge demonstrations protesting the human cost of the Gaza war that filled the streets of London, 70 00:07:57,260 --> 00:08:04,130 Washington, New York, Paris and many of the scenes, let alone across the Arab world in the General Assembly. 71 00:08:05,420 --> 00:08:10,760 The United Nations has condemned Israel's response as disproportionate and called for an immediate cease fire. 72 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:20,720 Last week, Israel was forced to defend itself against a carefully crafted South African accusation of violations of the 1948 73 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:27,080 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide before the United Nations highest tribunal, 74 00:08:27,740 --> 00:08:37,120 the International Court of Justice. Moreover, what began as an Israel I'm sorry, and Israel Gaza war risks regional escalation. 75 00:08:37,870 --> 00:08:41,949 Already in October, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement fired on northern Israel, 76 00:08:41,950 --> 00:08:48,640 provoking civilian flight and a build-up of Israeli troops, threatening the opening of a two front war. 77 00:08:49,540 --> 00:08:57,189 Israel has struck targets in Beirut and Syria. America has struck targets in Iraq, and the Houthis have all been closed. 78 00:08:57,190 --> 00:09:05,110 The Red Sea to international shipping. As we saw last weekend, the U.S. and the United Kingdom attacked 20 installations in Yemen. 79 00:09:05,470 --> 00:09:10,750 So the escalation of this conflict is happening at a pace which is certainly 80 00:09:10,750 --> 00:09:14,920 a cause of concern for all who would like to see not just the end of Gaza. 81 00:09:15,810 --> 00:09:18,330 But to see the end of conflict in the region. 82 00:09:20,470 --> 00:09:28,120 As Israel faces increasing isolation in international public opinion and growing calls for a cessation of hostilities, 83 00:09:28,540 --> 00:09:33,700 it will eventually yield to a permanent cease fire. This cannot be a never ending war. 84 00:09:33,970 --> 00:09:41,520 It is a war that will end. Now, I confess that I did not believe that the war could endure this long. 85 00:09:41,550 --> 00:09:45,150 I did not think we would have 100 days of such intense violence. 86 00:09:46,020 --> 00:09:53,760 And we organised in our seminar series for this term. I'd imagine we'd already be assessing a post-war reality in Gaza. 87 00:09:55,530 --> 00:10:03,150 I should note that some of my colleagues, Walter Armbrust in particular, were sceptical, and although some afraid he's been proven right. 88 00:10:03,570 --> 00:10:12,120 The war is still with us. But we think it important for us as scholars engaged in the study of the field on this region, 89 00:10:12,900 --> 00:10:17,879 to consider the political landscape and the options before the Israelis and Palestinians and the 90 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:24,990 international community in the aftermath of this devastating war so that it might never be repeated. 91 00:10:27,930 --> 00:10:35,220 The Gaza war has raised real questions about the role of universities in deeply divisive conflicts. 92 00:10:36,180 --> 00:10:44,760 Leading American research universities have been devastated by the politics of the different sides in the Israel Gaza war. 93 00:10:46,170 --> 00:10:50,610 The debates have spilled out of the classroom into the boardroom with accusations 94 00:10:50,610 --> 00:10:56,520 of genocide and anti-Semitism levelled at faculty and administrators alike. 95 00:10:57,900 --> 00:11:06,480 Donors and board members have pressured universities to clamp down on anti-Israel activism, threatening to withhold major gifts. 96 00:11:07,710 --> 00:11:12,750 Students resourced for their pro-Palestinian and or anti-Israeli activism. 97 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:18,080 Columbia suspended two pro-Palestinian student organisations, 98 00:11:18,860 --> 00:11:26,270 Jewish Voices for Peace and Students for Justice in Palestine for all of the autumn semester of 2023. 99 00:11:27,050 --> 00:11:30,120 I don't actually know if they've been allowed to resume their activities in Columbia. 100 00:11:31,950 --> 00:11:36,149 The presidents of Penn and Harvard were forced to resign following a heated 101 00:11:36,150 --> 00:11:40,860 congressional testimony in which they included questions about anti-Semitism on campus. 102 00:11:41,850 --> 00:11:46,830 Last week, a group of Harvard students filed a lawsuit against Harvard on grounds of anti-Semitism. 103 00:11:47,790 --> 00:11:56,340 One might argue on the weight of this evidence that universities should steer clear of such deeply divisive political issues. 104 00:11:58,290 --> 00:12:05,910 We disagree. In our view, universities should be free of debate and the exchange of divergent views. 105 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:14,220 Not many free for all sex yet, but done with intelligence, compassion, reason. 106 00:12:15,870 --> 00:12:25,500 We recognise that the current situation is deeply divisive, but that the situation requires each of us to make the effort to listen to each other. 107 00:12:27,250 --> 00:12:34,300 To better understand where the other is coming from. At times we will need to agree to disagree. 108 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,490 We recognise the need to preserve free speech and academic freedom, 109 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:45,880 but we also believe deeply in our responsibility to preserve our community and the ties that bind us. 110 00:12:47,970 --> 00:12:52,860 Organise in support of the causes you believe in. Without naming or blaming or shaming. 111 00:12:56,090 --> 00:13:02,120 Demonstrate but don't hate. Nothing we do at Oxford will impact the situation in Gaza ultimately. 112 00:13:02,570 --> 00:13:08,720 But we can do such damage to the integrity of this community in which we all have a stake. 113 00:13:09,020 --> 00:13:16,820 Which he also Europe. We see that happening in universities like ours in America, and it's an experience none of us wish to repeat. 114 00:13:18,580 --> 00:13:19,090 Moreover, 115 00:13:19,090 --> 00:13:28,900 we believe that university should be a forum for the incubation of new ideas and thinking outside the box to help address the world's problems, 116 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:33,760 whether it's in science or medicine, but in politics and diplomacy too. 117 00:13:35,140 --> 00:13:39,370 We are neutral territory where parties from disputing countries can meet and 118 00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:43,630 talk behind closed doors in a way that they cannot do on their own territory. 119 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:53,770 For a number of years, Sydney's Middle East Centre hosted a program in Sudanese studies and provided just such a neutral territory and brought all 120 00:13:53,770 --> 00:14:01,520 the disputing partners parties from North and South Yemen to have the conversation in Oxford that they could not have ensued. 121 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:09,610 I'm sorry, North and South Sudan, North and south yet to come to honestly to have the conversation they could not have and had to forge what 122 00:14:11,650 --> 00:14:17,740 we believe in Oxford could play a similar role given our strong ties to Palestinian and Israeli academics. 123 00:14:19,850 --> 00:14:29,750 In that spirit, we have convened this church seminar to consider the possible outcomes in the aftermath of the war in Gaza. 124 00:14:31,540 --> 00:14:38,680 We decided to shift the day in which we hold our seminars from its traditional Friday slot to Mondays 125 00:14:39,100 --> 00:14:44,620 so that it wouldn't clash with show up and so that we might provide an open forum for Palestinians, 126 00:14:44,630 --> 00:14:46,680 Israelis observant Jews across the world. 127 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:56,750 We chosen to privilege Palestinian and Israeli speakers, recognising that the conflict will be resolved by Israelis and Palestinians. 128 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:02,030 Though of course, with international support and perhaps a little bit of international pressure. 129 00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:09,460 And we've invited speakers who could address the range of possible outcomes following the Cold War. 130 00:15:10,570 --> 00:15:19,180 They're not all good outcomes. Let's be clear. There could be a return to some form of the status quo with Gaza, the West Bank, 131 00:15:19,180 --> 00:15:26,160 under some form of Israeli control or occupation, a scenario many in the current Israeli government openly advocated. 132 00:15:28,770 --> 00:15:35,400 Or there could be prospects of Palestinian statehood, 133 00:15:36,060 --> 00:15:42,870 a scenario that the Biden administration and many Arab states have called for in the old formula of a two state solution. 134 00:15:44,730 --> 00:15:50,700 There remains on the table the alternative of a binational state in which Israelis 135 00:15:50,700 --> 00:15:55,470 and Palestinians would live together as citizens of an undivided landmass. 136 00:15:56,590 --> 00:16:04,420 Given the spate of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the seeming impossibility of framing a genuine, viable Palestinian state remains. 137 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:11,460 Or indeed, there may be options that people have yet to put forward in the public domain, 138 00:16:12,030 --> 00:16:19,410 but have been contemplated by the scholars and activists who make up our distinguished speakers with a mission to overcome. 139 00:16:20,690 --> 00:16:29,060 So that's the agenda behind this term, seven houses and the remainder of this evening's opening session. 140 00:16:29,660 --> 00:16:35,390 I'm going to invite my colleagues to take to the podium to do something we didn't do all of last year, 141 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:42,680 which is to speak to our community about an issue of common concern at a time where we hope that we will 142 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:47,780 be moving from analysing something about which none of us has anything of particular knowledge to say, 143 00:16:47,780 --> 00:16:50,930 which is to say the strategic conduct of a war. 144 00:16:52,340 --> 00:16:57,500 But instead to be talking about something that I feel each of us is on slightly more comfortable ground, 145 00:16:57,830 --> 00:17:07,740 which is talking about the politically imaginable coming out of what has been acts of horror that were unimaginable until the seventh. 146 00:17:09,660 --> 00:17:13,290 I would now like to turn to my colleague, Ehud. 147 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:29,590 Who will. Speaker. Thank you. Thank you very much, Jane. 148 00:17:32,190 --> 00:17:37,650 These are terrible times. And I don't know why I decided to quit. 149 00:17:37,830 --> 00:17:47,310 You know, it's it's it's really, really quite difficult to describe the horrors of October seven. 150 00:17:47,940 --> 00:17:56,130 But also, there are no words to describe the horrors unfolding in us today. 151 00:17:57,120 --> 00:18:02,340 I know I don't have much time to discuss, you know, perhaps how did we get to them. 152 00:18:02,360 --> 00:18:07,050 And I think that is something that maybe we can talk about in the Q&A. 153 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:16,650 But I wanted to do what I wanted to do is discuss, you know, understanding alliances, 154 00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:22,590 particularly when we look at the dynamics of alliances between Hamas and other actors. 155 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:29,669 So there would be, you know, important questions that we will discuss later in the Q&A. 156 00:18:29,670 --> 00:18:33,000 But at the moment, I feel that perhaps to provide context, 157 00:18:33,060 --> 00:18:41,580 maybe we can try and understand alliances and looking at Hamas's relations with other regional actors. 158 00:18:43,220 --> 00:18:46,970 So, of course, you know, we all know that Hamas is a Sunni movement. 159 00:18:47,930 --> 00:18:52,250 It is an Islamic resistance movement that emerged in the 1980s. 160 00:18:52,370 --> 00:18:58,550 It found its inspiration in the Muslim Brotherhood method of social and political actions. 161 00:18:59,090 --> 00:19:07,430 And although Hamas shared close relations with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the group is not identical to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. 162 00:19:08,120 --> 00:19:13,940 Here, local context play an important role in understanding Hamas's motivations. 163 00:19:14,460 --> 00:19:21,320 So the main goals of the main goal of Hamas is the end of occupation and the liberation of Palestine. 164 00:19:22,190 --> 00:19:27,950 All of Palestine. And Hamas has not engaged in actually territorial conflicts. 165 00:19:28,070 --> 00:19:32,360 It has primarily focussed on the Palestinian cause. 166 00:19:33,170 --> 00:19:36,470 It is known for its refusal to recognise Israel. 167 00:19:37,130 --> 00:19:46,700 This is enshrined in the group's charter. But over the years the group has also hinted at accepting the 1967 borders. 168 00:19:47,300 --> 00:19:49,670 So in 1912, in 2017, 169 00:19:49,670 --> 00:20:00,979 Hamas announced its revised charter mission at a press conference in Doha stated that Hamas considers the establishment of a full, 170 00:20:00,980 --> 00:20:10,040 sovereign and independent Palestinian state with a Jerusalem as its capital, along the lines of the 4th of June 1967. 171 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:19,250 With the return of the refugees and the displaced of their homes from which they were supposed to be a formula of national consensus. 172 00:20:23,220 --> 00:20:30,090 In the revised chart, though it also tried to distinguish between Jews and Judaism and modern Zionism. 173 00:20:31,050 --> 00:20:35,490 Hamas said its fight is not against Judaism or Jews. 174 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:43,860 And the updated charter also removed some of antisemitic language of the 1998 and 1988. 175 00:20:44,370 --> 00:20:50,620 And of course, Israel rejected Hamas's statement in response to the revised charter. 176 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:57,660 Netanyahu announced that Hamas is attempting to deceive the world, but it will ultimately fail. 177 00:20:58,590 --> 00:21:06,270 So how do we understand Hamas's alliances or regional alliances so both Sunni and 178 00:21:06,270 --> 00:21:11,010 Shia Islamists support the Palestinian struggle and are sympathetic to Hamas? 179 00:21:11,550 --> 00:21:19,650 So when we talk about Islamists, we are referring to Islamists that originated from the non-violent political trend, 180 00:21:19,980 --> 00:21:23,460 like the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. 181 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:29,700 We are also referring to hybrid Islamist groups like Hezbollah and the Sadrists in Iran. 182 00:21:30,120 --> 00:21:36,359 So when we mention hybrid groups, they engage in legitimate political actions, 183 00:21:36,360 --> 00:21:42,630 including participating in elections while maintaining militant and armed options. 184 00:21:43,380 --> 00:21:48,780 And when we say Islamist, really referring to both Sunni and Shia Islamist groups. 185 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,650 So Sunni Islamist groups include the Muslim Brotherhood. 186 00:21:52,740 --> 00:21:59,520 They include the Salafi groups in the Arab world, including from Kuwait to Jordan to Egypt to Morocco. 187 00:21:59,820 --> 00:22:05,610 And Shira, Islamists, on the other hand, include groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, 188 00:22:06,300 --> 00:22:10,470 Hezbollah in Lebanon, in Lebanon and the Iranian Islamist government. 189 00:22:11,910 --> 00:22:18,240 So it is also interesting to note that jihadi Islamist groups of Sunni orientation like 190 00:22:18,250 --> 00:22:24,360 uncovered the in ISIS also call for the liberation of Al-Aqsa and the Palestinians. 191 00:22:24,750 --> 00:22:28,920 So they make the Palestinian cause as one of their main goals. 192 00:22:29,370 --> 00:22:34,560 However, support for Hamas differs when it comes to these jihadi groups. 193 00:22:35,250 --> 00:22:38,880 So ISIS, for example, Hamas is not Islamic enough. 194 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:48,570 Hamas's relations with Shiite actors like Hezbollah and Iran are seen as problematic as ISIS declares the infidelity of Shia practice. 195 00:22:49,860 --> 00:22:55,740 With the rise of ISIS in 2014, for example, ISIS sympathisers were also operating in Gaza. 196 00:22:56,220 --> 00:23:02,400 And in 2019, ISIS targeted Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad security offices. 197 00:23:02,790 --> 00:23:06,360 So Hamas then launched a campaign against ISIS in Gaza. 198 00:23:07,380 --> 00:23:16,260 And conventional assumptions would assume that Shiite-Sunni alliances do not seem plausible, especially after the invasion of Iraq, 199 00:23:16,590 --> 00:23:24,510 followed by the Iraqi civil war, by the Syrian civil war, and even the rise of ISIS in 2003. 200 00:23:25,230 --> 00:23:31,500 And these events gave an impression of excessive Sunni-Shia tensions in the region. 201 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:40,950 And of course, the American Eurocentric views then, due to the events in the region, are sectarian, which is really problematic and simplistic. 202 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:51,330 But more importantly, when it comes to the Palestinian question, Islamist groups and Muslim populations in general in various parts of the world, 203 00:23:51,540 --> 00:23:58,050 in these Sunni beat Shia have deep sympathy and affinity with the Palestinians. 204 00:23:58,590 --> 00:24:04,770 The view that Palestinians are an oppressed people and the view that the liberation 205 00:24:04,770 --> 00:24:11,040 of Al Aqsa is a legitimate cause unify most Islamists and their political support. 206 00:24:11,370 --> 00:24:18,960 The Islamist is extended to Hamas. The Palestinian Authority is seen as authoritarian, corrupt and impotent. 207 00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:28,110 And today, Shia Islamist groups are the most ardent and unrelenting supporters of Hamas and the Palestinian cause. 208 00:24:28,710 --> 00:24:37,590 However, tensions along Sunni-Shiite lines have at times affected relations between Shia Islamist axis and Hamas. 209 00:24:38,070 --> 00:24:42,840 Hamas came out in support of the Syrian uprising in 2012, 210 00:24:43,260 --> 00:24:52,230 and despite the fact that the Syrian regime was part of Hamas's orbit of support network, Hamas sided with the protesters. 211 00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:59,700 In February 2012, Admission abandoned his longtime base in Damascus and moved to Qatar. 212 00:25:00,300 --> 00:25:02,520 And it was only in 2000. 213 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:11,070 Now, in 2022, in October 2022, that Hamas resumed ties with Bashar al Assad's regime, which is not really a Shia Islamist government. 214 00:25:11,070 --> 00:25:19,770 It is predicated on secular ideals but has been backed by Iran and Hezbollah, as well as Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq. 215 00:25:20,250 --> 00:25:25,440 There are a number of reasons to understand. And Hamas is, you know, the reasons for this change. 216 00:25:25,930 --> 00:25:33,690 One, although Hamas opposed the Syrian regime, its relations with Iran and Hezbollah were not severely affected. 217 00:25:34,140 --> 00:25:38,100 It was still part of Iran in Hezbollah's orbit of resistance. 218 00:25:38,610 --> 00:25:47,249 Second, despite the fact that Hamas enjoyed good relations with regular with Morsi's government in 2012 and in fact, 219 00:25:47,250 --> 00:25:52,560 Ismail Haniyeh was a regular visitor to Cairo during Morsi's brief tenure. 220 00:25:52,980 --> 00:25:57,780 Relations with Egypt deteriorated significantly under President Sisi. 221 00:25:58,140 --> 00:26:02,490 Sisi launched a campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups. 222 00:26:02,670 --> 00:26:08,190 And in 2014, Sisi closed down 99% of Hamas's tunnels. 223 00:26:08,850 --> 00:26:15,300 And said Sunni Arab leaders, normalisation with Israel is another contributing factor. 224 00:26:15,450 --> 00:26:20,430 Hamas needed solid allies. She had asked us more reliable. 225 00:26:21,060 --> 00:26:30,360 And following October, seven Shia actors are vocal and some have taken military actions to support Hamas as well as the Palestinians in general. 226 00:26:30,930 --> 00:26:36,239 This is not only motivated by the a sense of duty towards Palestinian liberation, 227 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:42,300 but also to legitimise their own resistance and bolster their own credentials. 228 00:26:42,630 --> 00:26:47,400 And Hezbollah and Syria have their own grievances when it comes to Israel. 229 00:26:47,940 --> 00:26:55,830 And having said that, I think by all accounts, Hezbollah does not seem to want to escalate the conflict with Israel. 230 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:04,709 And what I can see is that they are committed to low intensity war of attrition with Israel and Iran and differences, 231 00:27:04,710 --> 00:27:11,940 despite the geographic distance from Israel and Palestine, have made the issue a moral cause to be champion. 232 00:27:12,420 --> 00:27:21,060 Mariam will be looking at Iran, but I'm hoping that we'll be able to look at things to understand what's unfolding in the region. 233 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:28,830 So who is these rebel groups from the north of Yemen who adhere to the same these sect? 234 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:36,390 The group fought against Yemen's longtime ruler, Ali Abdullah Saleh, on the basis of economic neglect in the north. 235 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,510 And Saleh has relations with the United States, 236 00:27:39,930 --> 00:27:49,080 the founder of the Houthi movement for and who's the was extremely critical of U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. 237 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:55,410 And Saleh, you know, cooperated with the U.S. in the American counterterrorism efforts in Yemen, 238 00:27:55,860 --> 00:28:03,480 which ended the Houthis and bedridden until he was killed by Solis army in September 2004. 239 00:28:03,750 --> 00:28:10,170 And his brother took over the leadership of the group and renamed the movement, the Houthi movement under his name. 240 00:28:10,170 --> 00:28:20,100 And Saudi Arabia also played an important role in the conflict in 2009 in support of Saleh and to protect its border, 241 00:28:20,730 --> 00:28:24,110 but withdrew later in September 2014. 242 00:28:24,120 --> 00:28:29,190 The Houthis successfully took Yemen's capital, and both the Saudis, 243 00:28:29,730 --> 00:28:35,940 Saudi Arabia and the UAE participated in the conflict to contain the Houthis, which led to the Yemen civil war. 244 00:28:36,510 --> 00:28:41,880 So the food is a support for the Palestinians is predicated upon several factors. 245 00:28:42,450 --> 00:28:52,060 One, the anti-American, anti-Israeli position may never fail to show that the Saudi bombing campaign uses American weapons. 246 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,860 They never failed to talk about American airstrikes in Yemen. 247 00:28:56,730 --> 00:29:00,330 Second, that sense of solidarity with the Palestinians. 248 00:29:00,660 --> 00:29:08,790 So they are also quite pragmatic in some ways because they want to bolster and consolidate their position in power in Yemen. 249 00:29:09,150 --> 00:29:13,470 The actions in the Red Sea have boosted their legitimacy. 250 00:29:14,010 --> 00:29:14,459 However, 251 00:29:14,460 --> 00:29:23,310 many Yemeni activists also highlight their disdain for the Houthis as they have also engaged in war crimes against Yemenis during the civil war. 252 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:28,530 And it must be noted that Hamas's relations with the Houthis are also quite limited. 253 00:29:29,430 --> 00:29:33,990 So we've looked at the Shia actors and the alliances with Hamas. 254 00:29:35,100 --> 00:29:40,350 What I'm hoping to do is also, you know, perhaps try to understand, as I've mentioned earlier, I mean, 255 00:29:41,070 --> 00:29:48,030 Hamas needed solid allies when it comes to Hamas, its relationship with Sunni majority governments in the region. 256 00:29:48,810 --> 00:29:53,400 That varies. Unlike Iran, Hezbollah or the who's these? 257 00:29:53,400 --> 00:30:01,470 The Sunni governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have adverse relations with Hamas. 258 00:30:01,770 --> 00:30:06,540 And there are several reasons for their antagonistic behaviour towards Hamas. 259 00:30:06,990 --> 00:30:14,220 One, these governments are anti Islamists in general, the anti Shia Islamist there and is Sunni Islamist. 260 00:30:14,340 --> 00:30:18,120 And who are these? They're anti Hezbollah and largely Iran. 261 00:30:18,780 --> 00:30:22,080 They also favour the Palestinian Authority over Hamas. 262 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:31,720 Many of these many of these countries have shown arguably little interest in the Palestinian question over the years. 263 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:36,750 They are pursuing their own economic and diplomatic interests in the region. 264 00:30:36,780 --> 00:30:43,770 If anything, the Palestinian question for them has not been a priority, and that is putting it mildly. 265 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:49,560 And these countries have also normalised relations with Israel, including the UAE. 266 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:56,340 In January 2021, Bahrain in September 2020, Morocco in December 2020, 267 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:02,820 and Saudi Arabia was in negotiations to normalise until the events of October seven. 268 00:31:03,390 --> 00:31:06,480 So Jordan and Egypt mobilised decades earlier. 269 00:31:07,380 --> 00:31:10,860 So these Sunni majority countries are seen as U.S. allies. 270 00:31:11,220 --> 00:31:18,030 Many host US bases in the region and these countries are now under a lot of pressure domestically. 271 00:31:18,390 --> 00:31:24,900 So you have regular protests and regular protests are held in Jordan and Morocco and even in Bahrain, 272 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:35,700 in a pool of Saudis conducted recently, 96% of Saudis believe that Arab countries should cut ties with Israel over its war on Gaza. 273 00:31:36,300 --> 00:31:43,230 And countries like Qatar and Turkey, on the other hand, have kept the Palestinian cause alive and relevant to a large extent. 274 00:31:43,620 --> 00:31:46,200 Turkey is also sympathetic to Hamas. 275 00:31:46,500 --> 00:31:55,860 But having said that, Turkey still maintains healthy economic relations with Israel, despite its rhetorical fire in 2022. 276 00:31:56,040 --> 00:32:00,780 Turkey's bilateral trade with Israel was worth 8.9 billion. 277 00:32:01,170 --> 00:32:08,220 Iran has actually called upon Turkey to end its economic ties with Israel in November last year. 278 00:32:08,430 --> 00:32:14,880 Turkey ignored the call, but on the other hand, provides financial support for Hamas's government in Gaza, 279 00:32:15,150 --> 00:32:20,370 including providing aid and paying for the reconstruction of Gaza after successive Israeli 280 00:32:20,370 --> 00:32:25,889 military campaigns on the Strip And other countries have also done the same when it comes to, 281 00:32:25,890 --> 00:32:31,560 you know, contributing to the reconstruction of Gaza, the financial backing. 282 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,760 And this is one thing that has been debated as well in the media. 283 00:32:35,820 --> 00:32:39,960 The financial backing receives full support from the Israeli government. 284 00:32:40,260 --> 00:32:50,850 It goes through the Israeli government. Similarly, Qatar has also hosted the political leadership of Hamas in Doha after Hamas left Damascus in 2012. 285 00:32:51,300 --> 00:33:01,230 And this move by Qatar was at the request of the Obama administration to create an indirect channel of communication with Hamas. 286 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:11,070 So hosting Hamas is also consistent with Qatar's efforts to project this soft power in the region as a go to mediator in various conflicts, 287 00:33:11,070 --> 00:33:20,280 including Russia and Ukraine. So last year, for example, Ukrainian children who returned from Russia through Qatar of Qatar in mediation. 288 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:27,990 So in conclusion, I'm sure there's so many questions, and I don't know whether you're going to be able to answer all the questions. 289 00:33:28,140 --> 00:33:33,150 Probably going to have to stay back until ten is its conclusion. 290 00:33:33,450 --> 00:33:36,210 Alliances in the region are not static. 291 00:33:36,420 --> 00:33:44,970 They are complex, and circumstances in the region influence how these alliances are shaped, maintained and fostered. 292 00:33:45,450 --> 00:33:48,900 Ideological and religious considerations may play a role, 293 00:33:49,380 --> 00:33:57,360 but they cannot be the only factors we consider when we try to understand Hamas and its relations with other actors in the region. 294 00:33:57,750 --> 00:34:10,280 Thank you. Hello, everyone. 295 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:19,160 My name is Marian Wilkinson and it's a pleasure to be amongst so many of you tonight because as summer ends, 296 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:29,540 when our feelings are about the situation where and I think it's cause to celebrate that so many of us are willing to think, 297 00:34:29,540 --> 00:34:36,860 talk, discuss, learn and find solutions, even if only in our that's not going to be answered. 298 00:34:37,490 --> 00:34:41,090 I think it's still good reason to be happy. 299 00:34:42,260 --> 00:34:49,790 So I'm going to talk about Iran's propaganda and action with regard to the Israel-Palestine issue. 300 00:34:50,990 --> 00:34:57,920 For about 45 years now, the Islamic Republic government in Iran has produced the most radical anti-Israel propaganda. 301 00:34:58,340 --> 00:35:04,040 No match is to be found across the globe, even in Palestine, I dare say, for this propaganda. 302 00:35:04,370 --> 00:35:09,200 Iran after 1979 has been the more has been more radical, in their words, 303 00:35:09,650 --> 00:35:13,670 than even the largest Palestinian resistance groups throughout history who have, 304 00:35:13,670 --> 00:35:15,709 at some point in their trajectory, 305 00:35:15,710 --> 00:35:23,650 acknowledged the need to recognise the Israeli state and have even worked towards a two state solution unsuccessfully. 306 00:35:24,410 --> 00:35:29,300 I would like to start my comments by showing you some examples of this propaganda in Iran. 307 00:35:30,020 --> 00:35:34,280 Do not argue that it has barely gone beyond empty words. 308 00:35:34,670 --> 00:35:43,580 We look further into it and then in this context I discuss how we should approach the topic of some of their own proxies in the region. 309 00:35:44,690 --> 00:35:50,000 So as an example, take Tehran's meeting on the Palestine and Palestine Square. 310 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:58,590 It's an historic site in terms of Iran's ties to Israel and Palestine under a different name. 311 00:35:58,870 --> 00:36:04,350 Cost, which means houses in Gaza, in homes in Israel by the sea before the 1979 revolution. 312 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,290 After the revolution, the building that was, say, 313 00:36:07,330 --> 00:36:16,310 the square was handed over to Yasser Arafat and his team has the Palestinian embassy in the square became known as fantasy. 314 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:25,080 The back story of a picture that I want to show you is that in 2015, shortly after the Iran nuclear deal deal was signed, 315 00:36:26,130 --> 00:36:30,140 some members of the Israeli government stated that would they run with your deal? 316 00:36:30,150 --> 00:36:33,660 They will feel more comfortable in the next 25 years or so. 317 00:36:33,990 --> 00:36:42,690 Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, reacted by saying, quote, Inshallah, in 25 years there will be no such thing as the Zionist regime, 318 00:36:42,690 --> 00:36:48,780 which is how Israel is referred to in the Iranian government governmental cadre. 319 00:36:49,380 --> 00:36:58,230 It was then when Tehran City put up this electronic countdown billboard out, and unacceptable does not begin to describe it. 320 00:36:58,230 --> 00:37:03,690 But here it is. So at the top, you see an electronic countdown. 321 00:37:03,780 --> 00:37:09,700 At this point, it says 8382 days remaining to the destruction of Israel. 322 00:37:09,720 --> 00:37:18,090 I don't know if the English is legible left before destruction of Israel on every day and would go one down. 323 00:37:18,090 --> 00:37:28,290 So 25 days in years was put up after the supreme leader had said if Iran only has 25 years and then they put out this banner and still there, 324 00:37:28,290 --> 00:37:32,910 I suppose there are like updated videos of it. It's now at 6000 something. 325 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:40,680 And sometimes the electricity is cut, it just dies and comes back right in the end, some number. 326 00:37:41,790 --> 00:37:48,210 So yeah, that's one example more relevant to the ongoing war on Gaza. 327 00:37:49,050 --> 00:37:56,520 Of course, the government is using the unspeakable situation in Gaza to further propagate its anti-Israeli stance. 328 00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:01,680 One example is that they created this portal. I'll explain what this is. 329 00:38:02,550 --> 00:38:09,390 They randomly message citizens in Iran non-stop, inviting them to join the campaign. 330 00:38:09,390 --> 00:38:12,930 That translates roughly into I am your match or I'm the match. 331 00:38:12,930 --> 00:38:20,760 You will meet Heidi Feldman. They claim that it now has 10 million plus subscribers. 332 00:38:21,300 --> 00:38:26,490 And what it is is that sign up to go to Gaza to fight Israel basically, 333 00:38:26,490 --> 00:38:34,110 and that the website was it's either down or inaccessible from here because like two days ago I saw it. 334 00:38:34,380 --> 00:38:39,630 It says like 10 million plus Iranians love to go fight Israel, 10 million plus Iranians. 335 00:38:41,130 --> 00:38:47,820 Something that translated into love to see Israel destroyed, I think was the warning. 336 00:38:47,910 --> 00:38:49,700 It actually said it in Hebrew as well. 337 00:38:51,570 --> 00:38:59,620 And there were several pieces of evidence that show that that number is just like an effective it's not a genuine number. 338 00:39:00,570 --> 00:39:11,550 If anything, the Iranians have, like Hamas, the grassroots have been more like leaning towards Israel side. 339 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:19,420 There are some like disturbing and alarming signs of Islamophobia that is like being activated against Palestinians. 340 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:26,010 So if anything, the Iranian population is showing those trends. 341 00:39:26,340 --> 00:39:31,710 But this is what the government is doing. Have they actually sent anyone to Gaza? 342 00:39:31,830 --> 00:39:34,940 Of course not. It's all symbolic, they even say. 343 00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:40,530 But I want to argue that they humans haven't mustered all of their symbolic effort. 344 00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:41,400 Why? 345 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:53,969 So while pro-Palestinian marches are erupting across the world in the hundreds of thousands, this is the kind of crowd that the Iranian government, 346 00:39:53,970 --> 00:40:02,040 which is actually quite experienced in force, mobilising supporters and even mercenaries into pro-government demonstrations. 347 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,490 This is what they produced. This is one example. 348 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:11,550 This is another example. This is Tehran's Mahmoud Airport. 349 00:40:11,820 --> 00:40:19,049 A group went there as a symbolic to show their will to go fight in Gaza. 350 00:40:19,050 --> 00:40:29,890 Symbolically, they even printed tickets. The airport is actually only for domestic flights, but that was supposed to air on there. 351 00:40:30,900 --> 00:40:39,090 That's where this population gathered with government support actually for their own more important purposes. 352 00:40:39,090 --> 00:40:46,140 In their own eyes, the government is able to gather pretty impressive crowds and they have done that over the years. 353 00:40:49,210 --> 00:40:52,240 So do I have more pictures? 354 00:40:52,670 --> 00:40:59,410 Yeah. Okay. What is to be taken from this propaganda, if not its face value? 355 00:40:59,830 --> 00:41:05,980 The fact of the matter is, Iran knows very well that it cannot survive direct confrontation with Israel, 356 00:41:06,340 --> 00:41:11,040 let alone annihilating it as a counter billboard and many other pieces of propaganda. 357 00:41:11,490 --> 00:41:18,940 Is why Iran has played the role of a strong an enemy for Israel, handing Israel the perfect opportunity, 358 00:41:18,940 --> 00:41:23,950 of course, with this type of radical rhetoric to treat it as such. 359 00:41:24,910 --> 00:41:30,370 Iran doesn't even need Israel as a strong enemy because they have the U.S. for that, the Great Satan. 360 00:41:30,580 --> 00:41:35,590 And so Israel, that the animosity towards Israel, in my opinion, 361 00:41:35,590 --> 00:41:42,460 is mostly for domestic consumption and for a like smallish little body that they have. 362 00:41:45,500 --> 00:41:51,139 So what Iran has resorted to over the years in practice as the militarily, 363 00:41:51,140 --> 00:41:56,210 politically and financially weaker state has been Iraq, of plausible deniability. 364 00:41:56,780 --> 00:41:57,290 They have. 365 00:41:57,650 --> 00:42:07,880 And that is engaging with Israel or actually mostly with the American forces in the Middle East, not even Israel, to preserve its regional interests. 366 00:42:09,110 --> 00:42:12,259 So I'm sorry, my contacts are giving me a hard time, I think. 367 00:42:12,260 --> 00:42:17,300 Very. See? I'm not that near-sighted. 368 00:42:21,050 --> 00:42:30,260 So given that Iran lacks a superpower abilities to preserve its interests, on the one hand, 369 00:42:30,260 --> 00:42:40,760 it needs to keep a military challenge is minimal and indirect, enough to preserve and economic lifeline, not to cut itself completely out. 370 00:42:41,030 --> 00:42:46,759 On the other hand, so on this, the first time they have to negotiate with the US. 371 00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:53,930 Every once in a while they make amends with the Saudis just before the 7th of October attack, as we all know. 372 00:42:54,750 --> 00:42:59,930 And on the other hand, Iran needs to counter forces of normalisation to a certain degree as well, 373 00:43:00,740 --> 00:43:03,830 whether it's with the West or with Israel in the region. 374 00:43:03,830 --> 00:43:14,510 I mean, not for Iran itself in particular, because otherwise it would be completely isolated because of the radical foreign policy that it pursues. 375 00:43:15,950 --> 00:43:22,680 So what we know as Iran proxies today were created and supported not with the purpose of exporting the revolution. 376 00:43:22,700 --> 00:43:27,799 I've actually done historical work on this. Whatever that means, exporting their revolution. 377 00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:35,090 But for enacting such minimal engagement and preservation of interests in a quasi rational way, 378 00:43:37,340 --> 00:43:42,260 then what is the nature of Iran's relationship with these militias in this life? 379 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:50,930 And wisdom, and especially the Israeli narrative, portrays the proxies as sort of an Iran empire across the Middle East include a variety of 380 00:43:50,930 --> 00:43:56,510 militias with unshakeable loyalty to their patron and a stable political relationship with it. 381 00:43:56,990 --> 00:44:04,520 I like the challenge this picture in three ways, along the lines of emphasising that there's a gap between ideology and practice. 382 00:44:05,150 --> 00:44:11,600 So first, not all of these proxies have similarly close ties to Iran. 383 00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:19,130 Take Hezbollah, for instance. It has the most consistent and most congruent relationships with Iran in terms of its ideological goals. 384 00:44:19,610 --> 00:44:26,690 It was created in the image of Iran's IRGC and it was created in a very fertile context. 385 00:44:26,720 --> 00:44:36,350 In fact, there were more than one Iran proxy ish or one Iran allied militias in Lebanon at the time, 386 00:44:36,350 --> 00:44:40,820 and Hezbollah was propped up in order to counter one of them. 387 00:44:41,060 --> 00:44:49,400 So basically different people have different proxies in different people in Iran had different proxies in Iran. 388 00:44:49,430 --> 00:44:55,610 So Hezbollah's one of Hezbollah's functions was to was to counter immense influence to some degree. 389 00:44:55,820 --> 00:45:02,210 So that's how favourable to Iran was the formation of Hezbollah. 390 00:45:03,620 --> 00:45:10,639 So the similarity in ideological goals, as well as the structural is amorphous, so, so to speak, 391 00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:20,870 between Hezbollah and the IRGC has enabled perhaps the most consistent ties between Iran and Hezbollah among all militias. 392 00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,920 But this is not the case with houses or Hamas, for instance. 393 00:45:25,130 --> 00:45:31,640 And that takes me to the second sort of challenge, to the prevalent understanding, 394 00:45:32,270 --> 00:45:40,250 and that is the relationship between Iran and either of these proxies is not constant, as Iran was pointing out, too. 395 00:45:40,580 --> 00:45:54,220 It's not stable over time. So, for instance, there's Hamas as a break with Iran, Syria, solar over the Syrian civil war there. 396 00:45:54,320 --> 00:46:02,879 I think like beyond that. The Iran's reaction to the October seven attacks. 397 00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:13,370 And it's basically being left out of the intel circle was hit Iran pretty hard. 398 00:46:13,380 --> 00:46:17,510 It was it caused some discontent in the Iranian government. 399 00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:27,690 Iran was obviously caught by surprise. The second interesting instance came up with when the IRGC spokesperson came 400 00:46:27,690 --> 00:46:32,249 out and said that Hamas attack was part of the retaliation for our presence. 401 00:46:32,250 --> 00:46:40,260 Any money killing back in 2020. Hamas immediately issued a declaration and said, no, don't fix things. 402 00:46:41,070 --> 00:46:45,629 We have consistently said that this is our agenda. 403 00:46:45,630 --> 00:46:54,600 This is against Israel's occupation. So they're not really like best friends around this attack. 404 00:46:54,840 --> 00:47:05,299 That's the narrative. And the third and last point I'd like to make, and perhaps most importantly, is that these militias, 405 00:47:05,300 --> 00:47:13,790 after being either created or officially supported by Iran, have found a life of their own independently of Iran. 406 00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:19,130 And each, to a certain extent, again, not all of them follow the same line. 407 00:47:20,140 --> 00:47:32,210 How Shelby, for instance, has grown pretty independent of Iran because of how fractured and how kind of diverse it is on the ground itself. 408 00:47:32,390 --> 00:47:39,500 Some of you may have heard Rudolph Dr. Rudolph, who was speaking about this last year in this seminar, 409 00:47:39,770 --> 00:47:46,960 and she had amazing data showing actually, you know, people are explicitly saying how Iran is not their agenda. 410 00:47:46,970 --> 00:47:51,680 They are following their own political interest and ideology. 411 00:47:54,540 --> 00:47:59,260 More relevant perhaps to the events transpiring today is Iran's relationship with overseas. 412 00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:05,260 The big question on media and in everyone's mind is how much of it is independent of domestic action? 413 00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,700 How much of it is decided by Iran? 414 00:48:09,780 --> 00:48:12,840 My vague final answer is I don't know. 415 00:48:13,370 --> 00:48:18,419 Obviously, Iran is, I think, 416 00:48:18,420 --> 00:48:26,549 genuine in its assertion that they do not want the conflict escalated further because of the reason I mentioned in the beginning. 417 00:48:26,550 --> 00:48:31,620 They are well aware that they are not capable of inviting such a confrontation. 418 00:48:31,980 --> 00:48:45,690 On the other hand, the Red Sea involvement is perhaps far enough from Iran to be a safe distance to just like not threaten Iran immediately. 419 00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:54,450 But again, it's not like Iran and the UK and other allies were directly and indirectly participating in 420 00:48:54,450 --> 00:49:01,499 the counterattacks against forces who don't have the ability to be in more than one place. 421 00:49:01,500 --> 00:49:09,090 At the same time, one of the first moves, military moves that the U.S. made after October seven was to send an aircraft 422 00:49:09,090 --> 00:49:14,710 carrier to the Mediterranean explicitly with the purpose of deterring Iran. 423 00:49:14,730 --> 00:49:26,280 So I would air on the side of saying Iran would still not fully endorse this escalations that these are effectively imposing. 424 00:49:26,730 --> 00:49:34,440 And this could be seen as one of the examples of the again, take action of one of these so-called proxies. 425 00:49:35,460 --> 00:49:41,070 But regardless of our take on don't cease or any of the other interactions in the region, 426 00:49:41,070 --> 00:49:46,910 I think the complex and toxic relationship between Iran and these militias should be taken to. 427 00:49:47,500 --> 00:50:01,160 Thanks. Okay, It isn't. 428 00:50:01,780 --> 00:50:10,350 My name is not Ernest. That's your Middle Eastern studies and the activation of Middle Eastern studies. 429 00:50:11,340 --> 00:50:18,660 Normally, my research focuses on Egypt. And I'm going to use Egypt as an entry point to talk to you about Gaza. 430 00:50:19,230 --> 00:50:23,100 But most of what I'm going to say will focus on Gaza. 431 00:50:24,150 --> 00:50:32,460 Egypt administers the crossing between Gaza and the rest of the world in the context of Israel's military campaign against Hamas. 432 00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:41,010 The Sinai Gaza border would be a minor detail except for the steady drumbeat of Israeli statements in favour of ethnic cleansing. 433 00:50:41,970 --> 00:50:46,230 Egypt is the most frequently mentioned destination for displaced Gazans. 434 00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:51,600 These statements by Israelis have been well publicised and I won't repeat them. 435 00:50:52,380 --> 00:50:54,860 Aside from genocide, the statements, 436 00:50:54,870 --> 00:51:04,290 the conduct of Israel's military campaign against Gaza is more consistent with ethnic cleansing than it is with keeping our students in place. 437 00:51:05,130 --> 00:51:10,140 Until there is substantive change in Israeli discourse and actions, 438 00:51:10,470 --> 00:51:16,200 we should take ethnic cleansing as a possible outcome, whether it's been stated as official policy or not. 439 00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,170 We should not, however, assume. Ethnic cleansing is. 440 00:51:23,370 --> 00:51:27,300 There is real international pressure against the expulsion of Palestinians. 441 00:51:27,570 --> 00:51:34,320 The genocide case, South Africa is brought to the International Court of Justice is the most prominent and meaningful instance 442 00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:40,950 of it because it implicitly puts the hypocrisy of the toothless response by Western governments on trial. 443 00:51:42,030 --> 00:51:50,880 Otherwise, the pressure exerted on Israel comes mainly from increasingly negative public opinion, which is manifested in huge protests. 444 00:51:52,230 --> 00:51:58,050 I want to talk briefly about two scenarios. The first scenario is complete Palestinian surrender. 445 00:51:58,950 --> 00:52:01,140 What happens when the bombs start falling? 446 00:52:02,070 --> 00:52:10,920 There have been statements and speculation about some entity other than Hamas or Israel governing the Palestinian Authority, 447 00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:14,490 perhaps, or a multinational U.N. force. 448 00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:20,069 But any outside force would still have to articulate with Gaza say so. 449 00:52:20,070 --> 00:52:23,550 The continued presence of Hamas will remain an issue, 450 00:52:23,910 --> 00:52:30,090 given that Israel's goal in the campaign is to eliminate Hamas and Israeli 451 00:52:30,090 --> 00:52:36,149 post-military strategy might consist of some sort of de-Nazification in which 452 00:52:36,150 --> 00:52:40,920 decisions are made about whether giving the surviving prisoners ties to Hamas 453 00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:45,120 mattered enough and protection gone from having any role in reconstruction. 454 00:52:46,290 --> 00:52:52,770 But clearly, no fine grained distinctions have been made even between civilians and possibly Canadians, 455 00:52:53,070 --> 00:52:58,400 let alone between Palestinians who may have been affiliated with Hamas and non-violent capacities, 456 00:52:58,620 --> 00:53:01,620 for example, teaching hospitals and clinics, 457 00:53:01,770 --> 00:53:09,360 managing wastewater as opposed to political roles bearing arms and committing or planning terrorist attacks. 458 00:53:10,470 --> 00:53:17,400 Much riding on Hamas sees it as a unified and disciplined entity in which non-combatant roles 459 00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:23,700 function as indoctrination and recruitment for the military and political wings of the organisation. 460 00:53:24,510 --> 00:53:30,030 A few scholars have argued instead that Palestinian Islamist organisations have been deeply 461 00:53:30,030 --> 00:53:36,150 involved in social welfare long before they articulated political nationalist aspirations. 462 00:53:36,660 --> 00:53:43,350 I recommend ceremonies for Hamas and civil society in Gaza engaging the Islamist social sector. 463 00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:48,870 Boys who did years of fieldwork in Gaza views the political and militant side of 464 00:53:48,870 --> 00:53:54,120 Palestinian Islamism as having emerged most clearly during the first intifada, 465 00:53:54,900 --> 00:54:01,530 the militant wing and preceded during the Oslo era, but became dominant again during the second Intifada. 466 00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:11,930 Once Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, it became the only game in town for anyone who wanted to ease the circumstances of the blockade. 467 00:54:12,890 --> 00:54:17,450 Roy claims there was a clear separation between Islamist workers in health care, 468 00:54:17,720 --> 00:54:22,940 social services and educational sectors and the political and military elements of Hamas. 469 00:54:23,750 --> 00:54:27,290 It's worth quoting from a book which was published in 2011. 470 00:54:28,580 --> 00:54:36,470 This is the quote. There can be no credible peace process with the Palestinian government that excludes the party elected by Palestinians to govern. 471 00:54:37,310 --> 00:54:44,930 Hamas not only remains open to sharing power, it also has a history of non-violence, accommodation and political adaptation. 472 00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:51,470 Ideological reflexivity. The transformation and political pragmatism that the West welcomes. 473 00:54:52,310 --> 00:54:59,840 The alternative portends disaster as it threatens to strengthen the more regressive elements within Hamas, 474 00:55:00,230 --> 00:55:08,030 radicalised Palestinians overall, further destabilise the situation that is already fraught with unbearable tension. 475 00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:13,060 The alternative Roy mentions is exactly what happened. 476 00:55:13,900 --> 00:55:22,780 There are historical comparisons one might draw on de-Nazification in Germany, de-Baathification in American occupying Iraq, 477 00:55:23,350 --> 00:55:27,850 or the illustration of Communist Party members in East European states after the Cold War. 478 00:55:28,750 --> 00:55:31,720 de-Baathification is possibly the most apt parallel. 479 00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:38,590 America did it by terminating the employment of all Iraqis who had been affiliated with Saddam Hussein's party. 480 00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:47,560 That had the dual effect of first sidelining large numbers of Iraqis who knew how to do the ordinary work and running by the institutions, 481 00:55:47,950 --> 00:55:52,720 and second, fearing resistance to the occupation, making violence. 482 00:55:53,740 --> 00:55:57,580 I have no confidence that Israel has thought about such matters. 483 00:55:58,210 --> 00:56:03,220 The conduct of Israel's military campaign not to be confused with the stated goal of 484 00:56:03,220 --> 00:56:08,710 limited us can be applied on a spectrum ranging from brute revenge to cleansing. 485 00:56:09,490 --> 00:56:14,650 There's no evidence of fine grained planning to reconstruct Gaza because of having the place. 486 00:56:15,250 --> 00:56:21,250 Indeed, Gaza is already uninhabitable unless the massive relief campaign can be organised quickly. 487 00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:25,000 The years the blockade before the military onslaught, 488 00:56:25,060 --> 00:56:32,610 Gaza was sustained at a minimum level by something like 500 trucks a day where for the goods in January, 489 00:56:32,630 --> 00:56:39,640 according to the Washington Post, the daily average number of trucks entering Gaza each day is 126. 490 00:56:40,210 --> 00:56:44,710 Yet the needs of Gaza's civilian population are measurably greater than before. 491 00:56:45,460 --> 00:56:53,620 There's little undamaged housing or infrastructure, inadequate fuel, food and drinking water, and hardly any remaining health services. 492 00:56:53,950 --> 00:57:01,600 If the bombs are falling, people will continue to die. At this point, it might take thousands of trucks a day just to stabilise Gaza. 493 00:57:02,530 --> 00:57:10,240 If either the destruction of Hamas or de-Nazification are preconditions for this happening, then how can Israel do it? 494 00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:17,260 How are they going to sort through thousands of Palestinians who have connections to Hamas decide who can work, 495 00:57:17,590 --> 00:57:26,860 who they think should be incarcerated or bus crew? Mind you, I'm not advocating that Israel should make such decisions, even if it could. 496 00:57:27,490 --> 00:57:34,660 I can't imagine Palestinians agreeing to it. And if they don't, any new arrangements lack legitimacy to fail. 497 00:57:35,710 --> 00:57:38,590 I don't think anyone else can do it on his behalf. 498 00:57:39,220 --> 00:57:46,600 Israel just has to acknowledge that in any non genocidal scenario, it will have to negotiate with Hamas. 499 00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:52,240 Full stop. Plenty of pundits and academics have already said this, and it's reasonable. 500 00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:57,820 Even if one considers Hamas in the context of its worst actions, 501 00:57:57,820 --> 00:58:04,639 particularly de facto the sudden terrorist attack, its Israeli interlocutors will be no less racist. 502 00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:09,520 The members of Hamas might be no less guilty of murdering innocent civilians, 503 00:58:10,030 --> 00:58:17,890 though the Arab Israeli interlocutors will have done this on a vastly greater scale than their Hamas counterparts. 504 00:58:18,820 --> 00:58:26,590 Now, let me turn to the second scenario ethnic cleansing. I won't talk about consequences of it, which would undoubtedly be horrific. 505 00:58:27,430 --> 00:58:30,040 I want to talk about what might keep it from happening. 506 00:58:31,210 --> 00:58:40,120 Stirring public statements from officials and backstage diplomacy probably won't dissuade the Israeli government from trying to carry out genocide. 507 00:58:40,990 --> 00:58:47,560 I think the only sure way to prevent genocide through meaningful international pressure in the form of sanctions. 508 00:58:48,310 --> 00:58:53,920 Sanctions against Israel are often particularly as the Boycott, Divestment sanctions campaign. 509 00:58:54,790 --> 00:58:58,239 Since we're speaking at a college, it's worth noting that in this country, 510 00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:03,700 BDS can't be implemented in colleges and universities because they're are charities. 511 00:59:04,150 --> 00:59:08,350 British law prevents registered charities from adopting political positions. 512 00:59:09,070 --> 00:59:16,960 Nonetheless, advocating IDs, even if it can't be adopted, is a non-violent DIY tactic to pressure not Israel, 513 00:59:17,230 --> 00:59:22,960 but rather our own governments to do what logically, morally and politically should be done. 514 00:59:23,740 --> 00:59:31,090 One might quickly reject sanctions as a tool of statecraft, but if you do, it's still a fact that our governments don't. 515 00:59:32,020 --> 00:59:38,290 Israel uses sanctions as a tool of statecraft, not against the state, but against the population under its control. 516 00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:43,390 The European Union and American sanctions. So does the UK. 517 00:59:43,750 --> 00:59:50,560 You can go to the FCO website and download a file listing all the individuals and entities sanctioned by the UK. 518 00:59:51,340 --> 00:59:55,270 Documented, single spaced and 11.4 months. 519 00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:58,810 It is 1155 pages long. 520 01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:07,660 One frequently voiced objection to sanctioning Israel is the claim that Israel is being singled out for doing what many other countries do. 521 01:00:08,930 --> 01:00:13,520 And sanctions as anti-Semitic because we're not advocating the same thing for everyone. 522 01:00:14,390 --> 01:00:21,890 I could not disagree more vehemently. We don't have to advocate sanctions against Iran, for example, because we already do. 523 01:00:22,730 --> 01:00:31,160 In fact, the UK sanctions list targets all the individuals, entities and countries with which Israel sees itself in conflicts. 524 01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:33,980 All of the senior Hamas figures are on the list. 525 01:00:34,310 --> 01:00:41,090 So are large numbers of Iranian individuals and entities specifically for their involvement the acts that threaten Israel. 526 01:00:42,050 --> 01:00:46,280 If there is exceptionalism, it is wildly skewed in Israel's favour. 527 01:00:46,700 --> 01:00:54,620 Not against, in my opinion, no case to be made that the human rights abuses committed by Iran since 1979 528 01:00:54,950 --> 01:00:59,570 are more egregious and the human rights abuses committed by Israel since 1967. 529 01:01:00,700 --> 01:01:05,680 I'm not naive. I know that human rights are only a pretext to sanction Iran. 530 01:01:07,990 --> 01:01:11,380 And that sanctions are actually aspect of geopolitical alliances. 531 01:01:11,980 --> 01:01:16,840 But I reject geopolitical configurations that make Iran sanctionable. 532 01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:21,130 Not Israel. Sanction them both. Or sanction neither of them. 533 01:01:21,370 --> 01:01:26,890 But don't try to tell me that the human rights abuses of Iran are worse than those in Israel. 534 01:01:28,450 --> 01:01:34,970 We all know the government's view sanctioning Israel is beyond the scope of the possible Holocaust guilt. 535 01:01:35,020 --> 01:01:42,370 There are military contracts. There are a host of other commercial and trade relations that our governments have no intention of disturb, 536 01:01:43,330 --> 01:01:49,600 and there is ambiguous and hypocritical but very powerful discursive traditions of the West, 537 01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:53,590 including Israel and the defacto brotherhood of civilised societies. 538 01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:56,740 Photograph of favourable trade and mobility conditions. 539 01:01:57,460 --> 01:02:04,270 Consequently, Israel's undeniably violent and illegal occupation carried out over many years, is ignored. 540 01:02:05,470 --> 01:02:11,050 Bottom line is we know full well that our governments have no intention to be held accountable. 541 01:02:12,010 --> 01:02:16,630 One of the few means we have to bring our governments to account is protests. 542 01:02:17,110 --> 01:02:18,100 It's an uphill battle. 543 01:02:18,790 --> 01:02:27,460 On a single day in 2003, somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million people demonstrate in London against the impending invasion of Iraq. 544 01:02:27,850 --> 01:02:33,010 On what many believe then and now know for certain were false pretences. 545 01:02:33,670 --> 01:02:39,250 Globally, as many as 30 million people marched against the war, that the protests were ignored. 546 01:02:39,820 --> 01:02:47,740 The number of Iraqi civilian deaths caused by the invasion and occupation is somewhere between 200,000 and 600,000, 547 01:02:48,130 --> 01:02:57,460 depending on whether you calculate deaths caused directly through violence or by excessive protests against the genocide trajectory. 548 01:02:57,700 --> 01:03:02,800 I've also been on a massive scale. Again, our governments are ignoring us. 549 01:03:04,180 --> 01:03:07,960 I do not wish to be interpreted as saying there is no value in protesting. 550 01:03:09,070 --> 01:03:14,650 People talk to each other protests. They do alliances and that helps to keep people mobilised. 551 01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:20,710 Contrary to Iraq and Gaza, at least thus far, activism does cause change. 552 01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:28,550 It takes time. One can feel depressed, point to the anti-Iraq protests and say that protest won't work for Gaza, 553 01:03:29,220 --> 01:03:33,390 or one can take the position that the protest doesn't work until suddenly it does. 554 01:03:33,750 --> 01:03:41,750 You keep marching. This is a slightly positive note and an otherwise sombre presentation. 555 01:03:42,650 --> 01:03:46,340 I've made lots of notes on other aspects of the current situation. 556 01:03:46,640 --> 01:03:50,510 Lots more on Egypt for example, and a bit about the US as well. 557 01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:57,170 But we need to keep our faces short. And so I leave other issues from the Q&A.