1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:08,410 [Auto-generated transcript. Edits may have been applied for clarity.] Welcome to, uh, some companies. My name is Chris Cavanaugh. I'm the current agricultural professor in the study of the Arab world. 2 00:00:08,650 --> 00:00:11,740 Um. Uh, I'm very happy. Delighted to see you all here. 3 00:00:11,950 --> 00:00:19,330 Uh, tonight. I'm even happier to welcome, uh, doctor and a handful to, uh, to the centre and to San Francisco. 4 00:00:19,660 --> 00:00:24,280 Thanks very much for being here. Uh, you're back to one of your multiple homes. 5 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:29,860 Uh, you you, uh, did your PhD here, but not something this college, uh, after. 6 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:38,140 And you also hold a limb. What is it? It's a masters in law field in, um, Harvard Law School. 7 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:45,640 Um, and you're currently at Harvard. You're a research fellow at the Belfer in the Belfer Centre. 8 00:00:45,970 --> 00:00:48,550 Uh, the Middle East initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School. 9 00:00:49,180 --> 00:00:54,730 And you were also, uh, prior to this, uh, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. 10 00:00:55,270 --> 00:01:00,280 And you were teaching at NYU of the, um, uh, University of Exeter. 11 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,780 It's a pleasure to be here with you tonight. It's a pleasure to have you here. 12 00:01:05,140 --> 00:01:13,450 Um, you're going to talk about your book, uh, which you'll find copies of, uh, the out of this, uh, session right outside the door. 13 00:01:13,450 --> 00:01:17,080 And I, um, I hear that you're going to sound some of it. Happy to. 14 00:01:17,410 --> 00:01:20,500 Uh, so the book is called the Abraham Accords. 15 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:26,440 The Gulf States, Israel, and the Limits of Normalisation. Uh, I started reading it yesterday night, and it's awesome. 16 00:01:26,860 --> 00:01:31,030 Thank you very much for being here. Please join me in giving out a moment of your. 17 00:01:40,290 --> 00:01:42,030 Okay, let me make sure you have. Can you hear me? 18 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:49,480 All right, so first of all, thank you so much to Beasley Centre and the organisers for having me here today, especially Hogan. 19 00:01:49,860 --> 00:01:54,390 Um, I'm just so happy to be back in Oxford, where I did my film some years ago. 20 00:01:54,660 --> 00:01:56,820 And it's a great pleasure to be invited back here. 21 00:01:57,330 --> 00:02:03,780 Um, let us know a little bit about my choice of topic and how and why I wrote this book before getting into specifics. 22 00:02:04,260 --> 00:02:11,670 Um, as Pascoe noted, the title is, um, The Deborah Accords The Gulf States, Israel, and the Limits of Normalisation. 23 00:02:12,150 --> 00:02:18,060 Um, I began writing this in the summer of 2020. We were in the fourth or fifth month of the pandemic. 24 00:02:18,070 --> 00:02:21,540 Um, I was teaching at NYU at the time. 25 00:02:21,540 --> 00:02:26,500 I was working at, uh, the Transfer Crisis Group as well, and most things moved online. 26 00:02:26,530 --> 00:02:31,259 It was the kind of time where we everybody was locked up in this pandemic. 27 00:02:31,260 --> 00:02:35,690 And out of nowhere, this tweet came out, um, by President Trump. 28 00:02:35,700 --> 00:02:43,980 Um, not huge announcements, immediate capital letters, peace between our two great capitalist friends, Israel and the UAE. 29 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:50,310 And this came as a massive surprise only because we were in the middle of this pandemic, but because, um, 30 00:02:50,850 --> 00:02:55,920 I think no observer or academic of the region could have predicted, uh, these agreements at the time. 31 00:02:56,220 --> 00:03:00,600 It was widely understood that there were covert ties between some Gulf states and Israel, 32 00:03:00,900 --> 00:03:05,880 but almost no indication that they were on the cusp of a public, um, normalisation agreements. 33 00:03:06,540 --> 00:03:10,590 Um, two months later, agreements were signed um, between behind the UAE, 34 00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:16,290 the states and Israel in Washington, D.C. the text of the agreements also said very good. 35 00:03:16,300 --> 00:03:22,030 So there are about 3 to 4 pages long. They talked about a new culture of peace. 36 00:03:22,050 --> 00:03:25,980 They talked about a new culture, but a new a new time with prosperity and trade. 37 00:03:26,460 --> 00:03:32,220 Um, but for those of you who have studied, uh, the peace agreements between Israel and Egypt and Israel and Jordan, 38 00:03:32,610 --> 00:03:39,630 those were full of detail and annexes on ending the conflict between the two sides on border issues, land issues, water issues. 39 00:03:39,990 --> 00:03:44,430 But because these countries had not been in an active space conflict, there was none of that to talk about. 40 00:03:44,850 --> 00:03:49,020 Um, and so just an outline of kind of your ambitions, uh, on this new chapter. 41 00:03:49,770 --> 00:03:56,640 Um, over the next few months, I began to carry out more fieldwork and interviews to understand the significance of these agreements, 42 00:03:57,060 --> 00:04:02,460 and then spent, um, three years writing the book. It's Exeter University after leaving their organisation. 43 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:09,150 Um, the new focus of the book is not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is now back into focus after October 7th, 44 00:04:09,450 --> 00:04:16,440 but more so on Arab-Israeli normalisation in the years leading up to to the war and its implications for the conflict. 45 00:04:16,470 --> 00:04:20,520 So what I'll do is begin, um, with some history. 46 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:26,370 Not too much, uh, to tell the story of Israel's relationship with the Gulf states and why it matters now. 47 00:04:27,470 --> 00:04:34,250 So if you go back to 1948, this was the year that Israel was founded, um, out of the first Arab-Israeli War. 48 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:43,340 Um, as part of this, the mass expulsion of Palestinians resulted in 750,000 Palestinians had to leave their homes, 49 00:04:43,340 --> 00:04:48,840 450 towns were emptied, and roughly 45,000 Zionists were also killed in this conflict. 50 00:04:48,860 --> 00:04:54,580 But this was basically a victory, uh, for the Zionist movement because it led to the founding of the State of Israel. 51 00:04:55,590 --> 00:05:02,340 For the purpose of the Gulf states in normalisation. The next significant moment of the timeline is 1967, the third after the war. 52 00:05:03,090 --> 00:05:11,010 This is when Israel increased its land mass by 3 to 4 times by occupying the Golan Heights from Syria, the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, 53 00:05:11,010 --> 00:05:18,060 as well as the West Bank and Gaza, which had been earmarked under the UN partition plan for the future Palestinian states. 54 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:23,700 Um, now the Gulf states for the first time participated indirectly in this conflict in several ways. 55 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:29,370 That's your which inside of the UAE, who would go on to found the UAE and the United States into a single country, 56 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,659 um, sends humanitarian aid support to the Arab states that were fighting in Israel. 57 00:05:33,660 --> 00:05:43,300 And the conflict holds itself. So it's a contingent of troops that participated directly in the war under Egyptian command after the conflict. 58 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:50,040 Um, the U.N. Security Council issued resolution 242, which became the basis of international law on the conflict. 59 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,300 And it stressed two things. 60 00:05:51,750 --> 00:05:58,410 The first is Israel's withdrawal from the occupied territories, but also the rights of every state in the region to exist in peace. 61 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:05,280 And this was meant to create the foundation for a settlement, um, for agreed peace through this exchange of land for peace. 62 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:12,750 And it becomes the position that the Arab states take collectively meant to be a collective position, um, land for peace. 63 00:06:13,710 --> 00:06:20,430 In 1973, we have the fourth Arab-Israeli war, and the Gulf States participates in an Arab oil embargo. 64 00:06:20,460 --> 00:06:23,500 They stop selling oil to the U.S. and other states that supports Israel. 65 00:06:23,500 --> 00:06:30,660 And therefore. And the role becomes pretty significant at this juncture as a source of economic pressure on the US and on Western states. 66 00:06:30,930 --> 00:06:38,150 Supporting. After 1973, there's the beginning of a period of U.S. led diplomacy to resolve the conflict. 67 00:06:38,510 --> 00:06:42,280 And it's interesting that I think this is born partly out of the Arab oil embargo. 68 00:06:42,290 --> 00:06:42,619 Um, 69 00:06:42,620 --> 00:06:50,900 Kissinger and others in the United States began to see how the conflict can actually directly impact U.S. oil prices and U.S. interests in the region. 70 00:06:51,170 --> 00:06:54,710 And so it drives a real interest in resolving the conflicts. 71 00:06:55,130 --> 00:06:59,510 Um, in 1979, there's the first breakthrough with Egypt and Israel. 72 00:07:00,290 --> 00:07:05,450 Egypt, um, Israel withdraws from the Sinai Peninsula in exchange for peace with Egypt. 73 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:10,400 Um, this is under President Carter and then in Jordan in 1994. 74 00:07:10,460 --> 00:07:16,730 Later on, uh, there's a peace agreement between Israel and Jordan, um, which also is based partly on land for peace, 75 00:07:16,730 --> 00:07:20,960 in the sense that the border areas between the two states are also finalised. 76 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:31,820 Um, I just a. By the mid 1990s. 77 00:07:31,820 --> 00:07:34,010 There's the Oslo process. 78 00:07:34,010 --> 00:07:42,530 Um, and it's, it looks like as a result of this diplomatic process that a Palestinian state may be on the horizon in the mid 90s. 79 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:47,900 And this is where we see, um, what I call in the book, the first wave of realisation with Israel. 80 00:07:48,260 --> 00:07:53,960 Several Gulf states begin to open their doors to Israel. But this is done on the basis that a kind of Syrian state is in the works. 81 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,610 So a couple hundred or more on both sets of preliminary trade offs to trade with Israel. 82 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:04,969 Meanwhile, the UAE also begins to engage Israeli officials and diplomats behind the scenes in 83 00:08:04,970 --> 00:08:09,770 Washington at a time when it's looking to acquire F-16 fighter jets from the United States. 84 00:08:10,130 --> 00:08:13,730 And its engages in this kind of backchannel diplomacy with Israelis, 85 00:08:13,730 --> 00:08:21,080 asking them not to block the sale of F-16s, um, in Washington and for the UAE and the Gulf states generally. 86 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:28,910 This really reflects the view that Israel is a useful interlocutor in Washington and a useful route to gaining more access and power in Washington. 87 00:08:29,510 --> 00:08:33,220 But what happens is, um, the Oslo peace process collapses. 88 00:08:33,950 --> 00:08:40,970 There's not there's no Palestinian state that's born out of this. And instead there's a second wave emerges, which is a fascinating uprising. 89 00:08:41,570 --> 00:08:45,410 And as a result, both Gulf states gathered in Amman close their offices. 90 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:53,630 Um, and this is partly also result of pressure from Saudi Arabia and Iran at the time, uh, and this first wave of organisation totally collapses. 91 00:08:54,470 --> 00:09:03,770 In 2001. Next is the Arab Peace Initiative. This is a Saudi led initiative that proposes normalisation from 22 members of the Arab Arab League, 92 00:09:04,190 --> 00:09:09,380 um, in exchange for an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. 93 00:09:09,770 --> 00:09:15,889 Other conditions include the rights of return of Palestinian refugees, but no Israeli either accept such terms. 94 00:09:15,890 --> 00:09:20,480 Um, and consistently until this point, I think even when the first wave of customisation, 95 00:09:20,750 --> 00:09:25,790 which we can see as votes normalisation, is linked to Palestinian statehood, that that may be the case. 96 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:35,090 Things change. I think very clearly in the year 2006, and there are four kind of events that bring the two sides into closer convergence. 97 00:09:35,630 --> 00:09:42,780 Um, the first kind of reasons for this, um, is on the basis of, again, two regional events. 98 00:09:42,780 --> 00:09:48,229 So what happens in 2006? It's the year that Iran announces the strength of its nuclear program. 99 00:09:48,230 --> 00:09:51,590 It's announces that it has enriched uranium for the very first time. 100 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:58,010 Uh, as well, Hezbollah is assumed to be victorious in its conflict with Israel in Lebanon. 101 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:05,780 And these two, um, these two events really do ring alarm bells in Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Bahrain. 102 00:10:06,230 --> 00:10:10,880 Um, the Gulf states began to take even more seriously their competition with Iran. 103 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:17,480 And what they see is an expanding Iranian influence in the region, which also was 3003 invasion of Iraq. 104 00:10:18,230 --> 00:10:23,810 Um, that's the first kind of factor is, is these these events where you want to seem to be ascendant. 105 00:10:24,380 --> 00:10:30,470 The second event that triggers a new convergence with Israel is the rise to power of a new generation of leaders. 106 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:37,670 So I spoke about the founder of the UAE, who passed away in 2004, but he had been an ardent supporter of the Palestinians. 107 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:44,270 Um, he had donated for the construction of a massive housing complex, massive housing complex in Gaza City, 108 00:10:44,270 --> 00:10:48,680 and had provided much aid to the Palestinian leadership and underwent over the years. 109 00:10:49,460 --> 00:10:59,150 Um, he's replaced by a younger leader who is less committed to the Palestinians and, and eventually, um, uh, against that later, uh, 110 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:08,870 the other change is in power also passes away a few years later or third year and is replaced, um, by a younger, uh, king and then crown prince. 111 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,700 And these two figures are less committed to principles of Arab unity and Arab rationalism. 112 00:11:13,970 --> 00:11:18,920 They're just preoccupied by seeing the question of Palestine as central to the future of the Arab world. 113 00:11:19,250 --> 00:11:24,770 They are instead much more concerned by the regional rise of Iran, and they feel far more threatened by that. 114 00:11:25,100 --> 00:11:28,249 Um, but especially at the time, wants to be closer to the US. 115 00:11:28,250 --> 00:11:33,049 And that's a function of its very pro-Western conference with U.S educated, um, 116 00:11:33,050 --> 00:11:38,360 and who personally sees the deepening of the U.S security and pressure as crucial to behind survival. 117 00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:46,310 Um, in 2009, he writes an Op-Ed in The Washington Post saying that there should be a dividend for states that are willing to take risks for peace. 118 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:53,630 He describes the main fight in the Mideast as one second place between extremists and between moderates who wouldn't have a problem with Israel. 119 00:11:54,260 --> 00:12:00,139 And this actually mirrors much of Israeli discourse, uh, of the conflict, because it takes occupation out of the question. 120 00:12:00,140 --> 00:12:03,800 And it's framed as a religious conflict between two religions. 121 00:12:04,310 --> 00:12:09,890 And, uh, following the publication of this, although there's quite a bit of outrage in behind, um, over it. 122 00:12:10,670 --> 00:12:15,860 Um, so that's actor number two, the rise to power of these new leaders who are really less committed to the cause. 123 00:12:16,550 --> 00:12:19,610 Uh, the third factor down the line is the Arab Spring. 124 00:12:20,420 --> 00:12:24,020 Um, what we see initially out of the Arab Spring was the first year. 125 00:12:24,020 --> 00:12:30,980 Looks like the rise of governments and places like Egypt, um, there are emboldened populist democratic movements. 126 00:12:31,340 --> 00:12:37,130 And the Gulf states also begin to fear a loss of influence to these two currents that appear to be empowered across the region. 127 00:12:37,610 --> 00:12:41,810 And they feel that a change in regional order might also threaten their long term survival. 128 00:12:42,470 --> 00:12:49,820 Uh, this, of course, this view of kind of being sceptical of these movements and social movements, um, is shared by this in Yahoo, 129 00:12:49,820 --> 00:12:55,040 the prime minister of Israel at the time, who compares the Arab Spring to the Iranian revolution of 1979. 130 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,960 So this shared good perception is really the third factor that brings them closer together. 131 00:13:02,550 --> 00:13:09,660 The fourth and final factor, um, is the signing of the JCPoA or the Iran nuclear deal in 2015? 132 00:13:10,170 --> 00:13:15,480 Both, um, those features and obviously the features from three states, especially three Saudi Arabia, 133 00:13:15,750 --> 00:13:21,840 the UAE and Bahrain, those three together, um, express their frustration that they haven't been included in these talks, 134 00:13:22,140 --> 00:13:27,000 that the talks or the agreements in its final form does not cover Iran's missile program, 135 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,180 which they see as even more threatening that Iran's nuclear program. 136 00:13:30,660 --> 00:13:35,970 Um, for Netanyahu, it's that these talks don't go far enough in preventing you from acquiring a nuclear weapon. 137 00:13:36,300 --> 00:13:41,970 He travels, of course, um, to the Congress and to the U.N. to make the case that this agreement is just not good enough. 138 00:13:42,510 --> 00:13:48,900 Um, but this event also creates, I would say, the last factor for a strategic convergence between the two sides, 139 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:54,480 Iran's shared good perception and a desire to influence U.S. policy towards the region. 140 00:13:55,140 --> 00:13:57,750 Um, let's talk a little bit about Netanyahu and his approach. 141 00:13:57,750 --> 00:14:04,950 Um, so for him, purity, uh, he he's made the case that the disappearing does not go far enough in eliminating Iran's nuclear program. 142 00:14:05,310 --> 00:14:10,620 Netanyahu had come to power in 2009, uh, being very opposed to a two state solution. 143 00:14:10,620 --> 00:14:17,370 He did not want to deal with the Palestinians at all. Um, wanting to avoid that kind of diplomacy that might lead to a two state solution. 144 00:14:17,670 --> 00:14:20,670 Instead, what he preferred was an outside an approach, uh, 145 00:14:20,670 --> 00:14:26,790 what is called peace for peace based on this idea that if Israel strengthens itself economically and militarily, 146 00:14:26,790 --> 00:14:31,320 the Arab states will want peace for its own sake, without any settlement for the Palestinians. 147 00:14:31,740 --> 00:14:39,600 Um, under his watch, unsurprisingly, the number of settlements, uh, reached 750,000 settlements by the year 2019, 148 00:14:40,020 --> 00:14:45,540 whereas there had been the last 100,000 settlers, uh, during the peace process of the 1990s. 149 00:14:45,540 --> 00:14:53,549 So there's an explosion of settlers in the West Bank which effectively create the conditions, uh, or remove the conditions for statehood, 150 00:14:53,550 --> 00:15:00,450 because it becomes increasingly impossible to consider those things out of a lack of land for spacious. 151 00:15:01,020 --> 00:15:08,640 Um, under Netanyahu, Israeli Israel's occupation becomes a permanent, permanent occupation that is effectively entrenched. 152 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:14,820 Um, he also uses Helen's visa as a pretext to stop talks with the Palestinian Authority. 153 00:15:15,180 --> 00:15:20,129 Um, understanding was, well, you know, Qatar is allowed to to send money to Gaza, 154 00:15:20,130 --> 00:15:25,620 which is just enough to keep Hamas in power and maintain this kind of a quick equilibrium between the two sides. 155 00:15:25,950 --> 00:15:30,599 Um, one of the Prime Minister's now been heavier, um, back when he was, uh, 156 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:35,940 just a number of Knesset is known for making the statement that when it comes to a two state solution, 157 00:15:35,940 --> 00:15:39,930 the Palestinian Authority is a liability, but Hamas is an asset. 158 00:15:40,730 --> 00:15:44,180 So this is what Israel looks like under the crown. Um. 159 00:15:45,270 --> 00:15:54,950 Uh, talk about the the Hoover Corporation that picks up in the year 2006, which I identify as, like the beginning of this convergence in 2007, 160 00:15:54,950 --> 00:16:01,400 the year after that, um, UAE begins to acquire Israeli technology for an internal traffic management system. 161 00:16:02,180 --> 00:16:07,970 Uh, that senior it's cooperates with an Israeli firm to procure satellite data on Iran's nuclear program. 162 00:16:08,270 --> 00:16:16,940 This is done through two satellite systems. Um, in 2010, the UAE starts pitching to host the headquarters of Iryna, 163 00:16:17,330 --> 00:16:24,470 the International renewable energy Agency, which is a multilateral agency, um, on renewable energy. 164 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:29,629 And it's it again engages in conversations with Israeli officials and confirms to them 165 00:16:29,630 --> 00:16:33,530 that they will be allowed to attend events in the UAE as long as they don't block. 166 00:16:33,950 --> 00:16:39,600 Uh, the UAE use case for obtaining, uh, the mandate to host them in the UAE. 167 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:46,430 So again, this is a perception that, uh, you know, the UAE can get along with Washington or even internationally with Israeli support. 168 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:48,610 Um, at the same time, 169 00:16:48,620 --> 00:16:56,570 the UAE also asks Israeli officials for assistance in making the case for the UAE to acquire civilian nuclear technology from the United States. 170 00:16:56,900 --> 00:17:00,950 And this is another key points of engagement between the two sides. Around the 2000 and. 171 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,610 Um, prior to Obama's signing of the Iran nuclear deal. 172 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:10,650 Uh, the UAE engages in joint lobbying with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and Israel to 173 00:17:10,650 --> 00:17:15,030 convince Obama's officials to take a stance on Iran and its nuclear program. 174 00:17:15,450 --> 00:17:20,270 Um, and this is documented pretty extensively in Wikileaks, actually, um, uh, 175 00:17:20,310 --> 00:17:24,210 some prior to this period and really trying to push Obama to take a tougher stance. 176 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,070 All of this happens in the lead up to the Trump administration. 177 00:17:30,250 --> 00:17:33,370 Sorry if I might have a little bit of sort of anticipating all of this. 178 00:17:33,700 --> 00:17:39,820 Um, if all of this happens in the lead up to the Trump administration, when Trump is elected to power for the first term. 179 00:17:40,270 --> 00:17:45,340 Uh, his, his administration really do enable and accelerate this convergence between the two sides. 180 00:17:45,700 --> 00:17:50,200 And I think much of that happens out of the advisers that Trump surrounds himself with. 181 00:17:50,230 --> 00:17:56,500 It's not really that, in my view, Trump is necessarily committed to Israel, but his advisors certainly were committed to Israel. 182 00:17:57,010 --> 00:18:01,480 Um, one of them is David Friedman. Um, Friedman was formerly Trump's lawyer. 183 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:08,080 Early on, he becomes Trump's adviser in the campaign, and he shoots the Republican Party platform on Israel and Palestine. 184 00:18:08,380 --> 00:18:14,080 He throws out previous language endorsing a two state solution and a points of bipartisan consensus. 185 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:18,640 Instead, he replaces that with language criticising underdog for being anti-Semitic. 186 00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:25,000 He himself is heavily pro-Israel. He's the head of an organisation that does fundraise for illegal settlements. 187 00:18:25,330 --> 00:18:30,250 Um, and he becomes, uh, ambassador to Israel Jared Kushner as well as is, uh, 188 00:18:30,250 --> 00:18:33,520 somebody that we push as pro-Israel policies in the Trump administration. 189 00:18:33,940 --> 00:18:37,360 Uh, his family are long term friends of Prime Minister Netanyahu. 190 00:18:37,360 --> 00:18:42,339 There's a story in his biography about him being evicted from his bedroom as a teenager, 191 00:18:42,340 --> 00:18:45,520 in order to make room for Netanyahu to come and stay over the summer. 192 00:18:46,090 --> 00:18:49,540 Um, Mike Pompeo, as well is appointed secretary of state. 193 00:18:49,540 --> 00:18:53,530 He becomes the first secretary of state to visit a settlements in Israel. 194 00:18:54,010 --> 00:19:02,620 Um, I mean, having read perhaps within a year to, um, what's interesting from Pompeo and Friedman, 195 00:19:02,980 --> 00:19:09,490 particularly in Friedman's biography, is their use of divine language to justify Trump's, uh, presence as as the president. 196 00:19:09,490 --> 00:19:14,230 Um, both speak about Trump being sent, possibly from God, to protect the states of Israel. 197 00:19:14,530 --> 00:19:19,089 And they really see themselves as on this kind of divine mission, uh, to do God's work. 198 00:19:19,090 --> 00:19:25,420 Um, very early on in the administration, Trump's advisers tell him that the Palestinians don't want peace, 199 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,930 that they're the beneficiaries of much international aid, 200 00:19:28,930 --> 00:19:32,590 and they don't want to change the status quo, and they really shouldn't be dealt with at all. 201 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:37,420 Uh, instead, they push the president to adopt very pro-Israel policies and a series of them. 202 00:19:37,870 --> 00:19:43,300 These include when he gets into Jerusalem, they include walking back on the unsealed memorandum, 203 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,230 which is a U.S. position that, uh, that settlements already go. 204 00:19:47,260 --> 00:19:51,700 Um, so he rolls this back, um, in consultation with a team of Israeli lawyers. 205 00:19:51,700 --> 00:20:00,669 That's our friends. And I said, you know, he cuts aid to under, um, um, supposed to be the refugee agency, which is a longtime goal of this. 206 00:20:00,670 --> 00:20:05,140 And Yahoo was and all of this together leads to a boycott from the Palestinians. 207 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:11,709 Um, nonetheless, Kushner is interested in developing a legacy, um, and wants to be, 208 00:20:11,710 --> 00:20:14,560 you know, sort of the person who resolves the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 209 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:19,780 So he puts together, along with other advisors, a plan for resolving the conflict. 210 00:20:20,260 --> 00:20:25,540 Um, and this gets delivered several junctures, partly because Netanyahu is running for re-election, 211 00:20:25,900 --> 00:20:28,450 and it's just not the right time to release this kind of gun. 212 00:20:28,870 --> 00:20:35,500 Um, but eventually it does get released into components, uh, as an economic peace plan and a political peace plan. 213 00:20:35,890 --> 00:20:41,709 And from the beginning, the Palestinians decline to participate and say this administration is heavily against us, 214 00:20:41,710 --> 00:20:43,540 and we don't want to have anything to do with this plan. 215 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:50,650 Um, so what happens is, is that rather than bring the two sides together, it's the Gulf states that get drawn into this process. 216 00:20:51,100 --> 00:20:58,270 When the economic components of the Pistons release, it's it's releases in Bahrain, actually during a kind of a hot summer evening. 217 00:20:58,690 --> 00:21:03,070 Um, and drawing the Gulf States into this marks a change from the past. 218 00:21:03,130 --> 00:21:12,310 Um, and and partly if I, if I go through some of the components, um, when the political component does eventually get released. 219 00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:19,299 This is the second part of this. It's enables Israel to annexe one third of the West Bank and proposes landforms for the 220 00:21:19,300 --> 00:21:24,520 Palestinian sensitive territory in the West Bank when they're offered a land in the Sinai desert. 221 00:21:25,120 --> 00:21:28,599 Um, and the Gulf states are identified as some of the main parties, 222 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:36,219 along with various hedge funds that are going to fund some of this, including heights, high speed rails connecting Sinai in the west. 223 00:21:36,220 --> 00:21:42,550 And, um, in exchange for this, the Palestinians don't get a state, but they get a freeze on settlement construction for a few years, 224 00:21:42,910 --> 00:21:46,300 during which they can decide whether they want to continue talks or not. 225 00:21:47,020 --> 00:21:49,989 Um, so this is rejected, of course, by the Palestinians. 226 00:21:49,990 --> 00:21:56,230 But at the same time, uh, as these plans are being unrolled, in fact, the deal of the political components is unrolled. 227 00:21:56,650 --> 00:22:02,380 Netanyahu announces a plan to annexe the West Bank. And there's a frustration from the Trump administration. 228 00:22:02,740 --> 00:22:11,469 Again, not not that their plan doesn't include annexation, but this annexation is larger, um, than the one proposed by the Trump administration, 229 00:22:11,470 --> 00:22:17,590 takes up more land to annexe um, takes place outside any kind of settlements or any framework for the settlements. 230 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:23,559 As Netanyahu is threatening to annexe. And I mean, this causes the Trump administration's pretty split on this. 231 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:29,020 I think figures like Kushner are unhappy with it. Friedman is, of course, happy to go along with pretty much anything. 232 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:33,610 So as this is kind of unravelling, um, the UAE steps, um, 233 00:22:34,420 --> 00:22:44,290 and the MRC ambassador to Washington publishes an editorial in London's European newspapers, uh, and he says annexation is not acceptable. 234 00:22:44,290 --> 00:22:51,940 But he also dangles the possibility of peace by saying countries like the UAE, Ian Israel, have more in common than they have differences. 235 00:22:52,540 --> 00:22:57,280 Um, and as the pandemic is kind of going on in Syria, who's threatening to annexe and, 236 00:22:57,490 --> 00:23:04,240 and this part partly comes out of his this pandering to very rightwing settlement groups, which he needs in order to win the election. 237 00:23:05,050 --> 00:23:09,550 And he and, and Kushner travel to Israel at that point to convince him not to go ahead. 238 00:23:10,210 --> 00:23:13,720 Um, but the scenario was pretty determined, at least in his rhetoric to us. 239 00:23:14,290 --> 00:23:21,159 And that's what they begin to think of an alternative scheme. Um, they call it a latte, but and say, what about normalisation? 240 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:28,600 What about normalisation between Israel and the UAE in exchange for that same Yahoo stopping annexation or forgoing annexation. 241 00:23:29,110 --> 00:23:33,579 And this becomes the basis of the agreements? Um, the idea didn't come out of nowhere. 242 00:23:33,580 --> 00:23:37,960 And I had previously mentioned to Kushner that the UAE wouldn't be interested in normalising. 243 00:23:38,290 --> 00:23:42,939 But I think this becomes a very convenient vehicle, um, for it to take place. 244 00:23:42,940 --> 00:23:46,870 And that's exactly what happens, um, and actually gets published. 245 00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:52,390 Um, that's the beginning. Um, I want to talk about what these agreements have accomplished. 246 00:23:55,360 --> 00:24:01,059 There's been a lot in the way of trade ties. So trade between the UAE and Israel, especially, um, 247 00:24:01,060 --> 00:24:08,190 reached 1 billion in their first year and 2 billion in their second year in the first year of free trade agreements signed between the two sides, 248 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:17,200 um, removing tariffs on 2% of trade of goods, um, much of trade is in is in diamonds, um, and all kinds of goods that can be re-exported. 249 00:24:17,590 --> 00:24:21,550 But much of the trade is also centred on delivering Israeli tech to the UAE. 250 00:24:22,210 --> 00:24:28,120 Uh, this in particular is driven by massive investments by the UAE and Israeli technology companies. 251 00:24:28,420 --> 00:24:34,270 So, uh, some of the biggest and lot of the sovereign wealth funds started pouring in a lot of money into Israeli firms. 252 00:24:34,360 --> 00:24:37,840 Um, and that becomes a bulk of the trade between the two sides. 253 00:24:38,380 --> 00:24:45,220 Um, for trade value, um, it takes more than a year for the security aspects of these agreements and the lights on the first year, 254 00:24:45,220 --> 00:24:48,460 a year and a half, there's really not so much talk of security or defence. 255 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:54,850 And I think it's I mean, that's really basically comes out of your desire to de-escalate with Iran. 256 00:24:55,300 --> 00:25:02,200 Uh, at the time, UAE is also interested in not antagonising Iran, uh, and escalating hostilities. 257 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:08,170 And so it downplays any security cooperation with Israel. The rhetoric is really about peace, prosperity and tolerance. 258 00:25:08,650 --> 00:25:15,850 Um, but in January 22nd, you were hit by several missile attacks, uh, suspected terrorist groups in Yemen. 259 00:25:15,850 --> 00:25:20,200 And that's the moment when the defence aspect of the relationship really comes to the surface. 260 00:25:20,650 --> 00:25:26,680 Um, as a result of that attack, the Union fires two missile defence systems from Israel, including the dock system. 261 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:32,290 They had asked for Iron Dome, but Iron Dome was not, uh, was not, uh, approved. 262 00:25:33,010 --> 00:25:36,090 Um, but it does receive these these, uh, missile defences. 263 00:25:37,290 --> 00:25:41,339 I think from a heart especially, there's been a reputational aspect to the Abraham Accords, 264 00:25:41,340 --> 00:25:48,130 which has been useful since the Arab Spring but has been accused in Washington of sectarianism for the prediction. 265 00:25:48,180 --> 00:25:52,680 It's been really fighting to show that it's not sectarian or doesn't have these policies. 266 00:25:52,990 --> 00:25:59,459 The courts have been very useful because behind has effectively conflated normalisation with tolerance towards the Jewish people, 267 00:25:59,460 --> 00:26:03,150 and really use that to improve its image in Washington. 268 00:26:03,430 --> 00:26:09,059 Um, so there's been that reputational benefits, I think, particularly from behind, um, in the United States, 269 00:26:09,060 --> 00:26:13,800 there's been a bipartisan push to deepen cooperation between the normalising states and Israel. 270 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:21,090 And I'm speaking to a colleague earlier who was making the point that, you know, a year or two after normalisation, 271 00:26:21,090 --> 00:26:26,340 everything in the U.S., every conversation you have would have to have an element about the Abraham Accords or normalisation. 272 00:26:26,340 --> 00:26:33,659 And I agree, I think I think that's still partly true. Um, the US is there's a bipartisan excitement around this. 273 00:26:33,660 --> 00:26:43,440 Um, and I think a goal to draw, uh, these two states is Sunni Arab Gulf states into Israel, with Israel into a new regional security architecture. 274 00:26:43,890 --> 00:26:46,320 Um, and there have be concrete steps to make this happen. 275 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:54,180 So one of them was moving Israel from the European zone of command, um, into Centcom, uh, which encompasses all the Arab states. 276 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:59,820 Um, and this has enabled Israel to advance its security cooperation, not only with normalising states, 277 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,810 but with those that don't have relations with it's under the umbrella of Sansome. 278 00:27:04,410 --> 00:27:08,310 Um, Biden very much continued on the path set out by Trump. 279 00:27:08,730 --> 00:27:12,510 He made normalisation with Saudi Arabia a key pillar of Middle East policy. 280 00:27:12,870 --> 00:27:17,519 Um, and we heard nothing from him about resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 281 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:23,760 which was totally, uh, recognised as a relevance, um, within the Gulf itself. 282 00:27:24,020 --> 00:27:30,150 I would say there was some trepidation towards normalisation. If you look at popular polls and data on the topic. 283 00:27:30,450 --> 00:27:37,349 I think initially the moments after the Accords were signed, there was some optimism, certainly, that maybe this this can get some more positive. 284 00:27:37,350 --> 00:27:46,440 But the 2020, 2021 Israel, uh, Gaza attacks, that brief period of hostilities, uh, kind of pushed the numbers down. 285 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:52,620 And of course, October 7th pushed them even further down to to a very, really low numbers. 286 00:27:52,620 --> 00:27:54,809 Um, we can see this in tourism as well. 287 00:27:54,810 --> 00:28:04,710 So in the first two years, um, of relations, 450,000 Israeli tourists in the UAE, which is massive, half a million out of a population of 7 million. 288 00:28:05,070 --> 00:28:09,780 Um, by comparison, the numbers of people last season behind these visiting Israel is much lower. 289 00:28:10,110 --> 00:28:18,780 It was, according to Israel's Ministry of Tourism, 3600 losses in the first two years, and the numbers of attendees were too small to mention. 290 00:28:19,380 --> 00:28:26,910 Um, uh, so the the that's a more, uh, sober seventh I think has chilled, but not the normalisation. 291 00:28:27,180 --> 00:28:32,760 There's been massive public outrage towards, um, Israel's actions after the war, some protests. 292 00:28:33,210 --> 00:28:38,130 But I think where you can really see opposition is in the boycott movement that is taking place across the Gulf. 293 00:28:38,610 --> 00:28:45,450 Um, when asked, 71% of Saudi citizens, uh, said that they were engaged or supportive of this boycott, 294 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:51,569 96% believed that the Arab states or Arab states should cut ties with Israel in response to the war. 295 00:28:51,570 --> 00:28:58,270 It's it's a huge number. Um. I'll just wrap up because of time. 296 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:05,290 But I think if you can think about several kind of themes or confusions, I talked about the limits of normalisation in the book, 297 00:29:05,290 --> 00:29:10,260 and what I mean by that is that these agreements have not addressed, um, 298 00:29:10,270 --> 00:29:15,580 or did little to kind of lead to the resolution of the core conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. 299 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:23,990 In fact, the entire logic, it's our premise of the ethical accords is based on the sidelining of the conflict and built on a fatigue of diplomacy, 300 00:29:23,990 --> 00:29:27,010 you know, not only in the Arab states and in Israel, but also in the US. 301 00:29:27,370 --> 00:29:32,349 Where are you? The goal of expanding normalisation has effectively replaced the resolution of the 302 00:29:32,350 --> 00:29:36,610 Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the main focus of U.S. policy towards the region. 303 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:44,110 The consequence of this is the entrenchment of the conditions that gave rise to the October 7th attacks, uh, and Israel's reprisal. 304 00:29:45,300 --> 00:29:53,020 Um, there's also the the democracy angle, the idea that normalisation rests on a lack of democracy in the Arab world. 305 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,480 These are unpopular agreements, and they're only sustained because citizens don't have a choice. 306 00:29:57,750 --> 00:30:03,510 I think they also show us a lot about the fracturing of the old Arab order, the decline of Arab nationalism. 307 00:30:03,990 --> 00:30:09,550 Um, and they also shatter this. I mean, I think what we've seen now is with without seventh, 308 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:15,060 an end to this myth that Israel can maintain its occupation without consequences for its own security. 309 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:20,130 But it's also shattered the myth that the region can just forget about this conflict and move on and move forward. 310 00:30:20,550 --> 00:30:23,520 Um, we're seeing the cost of that way of thinking today. 311 00:30:23,850 --> 00:30:31,140 Um, what's needed is the right kind of diplomacy not oriented towards expansion of normalisation, but diplomacy to resolve the conflict sometimes. 312 00:30:31,530 --> 00:30:38,070 Um, and in a final way and holistically, um, that serves the interests of justice, um, for both sides. 313 00:30:51,770 --> 00:30:57,410 Thank you very much for the talk. Um. Uh, so I'm going to start with with a couple questions. 314 00:30:57,500 --> 00:31:06,020 Um, I guess the one question I had when opening the book was, I mean, it's a silly question, but is why why the Abraham Accords? 315 00:31:06,710 --> 00:31:10,190 Who are the perverse idea to call these the Abraham Accords? 316 00:31:10,630 --> 00:31:15,680 Yeah, it's a great question, actually. And it's mentioned, um, in one of their biographies, I think Kushner's biography. 317 00:31:16,070 --> 00:31:22,280 Um, they were sitting down right before the announcement was made by a day or two, I'm thinking about what to call them. 318 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:28,879 And then a general came and, like, walked in through the door and they posed the question to him, and he said, how about the Abraham Accords? 319 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,120 Because those involved are all of the Abrahamic faith. 320 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,809 And this brings together, um, you know, two of the major Abrahamic faiths. 321 00:31:35,810 --> 00:31:39,200 And then they thought that was a brilliant idea and went with it. 322 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:48,290 So, like a lot. But like much of what happens, I think reading these biographies of Trump's officials, so much of it is spur of the moment. 323 00:31:48,290 --> 00:31:53,120 So much of it is, you know, just a personal kind of thing that's happened. 324 00:31:53,150 --> 00:31:56,959 Someone has an idea, someone else has something, and it's executed. 325 00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:04,290 And so that's exactly what happened. All right. Who do we have the name of that I can get? 326 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:12,979 I know, um, my other question is, um, I mean, you mentioned that the those both at the, at the end of your talk and I was, you know, uh, 327 00:32:12,980 --> 00:32:21,770 listening to you, I was thinking about domestic politics in, in countries and, and also of how much of a difference there is between, 328 00:32:22,130 --> 00:32:29,750 you know, the 1973, uh, embargo and, and the fact that King Faisal was, was really not only out of his own convictions, 329 00:32:29,810 --> 00:32:36,350 uh, but also responding to to what he perceived was was a very strong current in Saudi public opinion. 330 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:45,500 So, so moving forward, 50 years later, right before, uh, October 7th, there's there's it's a massive shift. 331 00:32:45,500 --> 00:32:50,420 Right. So how do you I guess there are several, you know, letters to that question, right? 332 00:32:50,420 --> 00:32:59,569 I mean, um, what? Yeah. What what do you think is happening right now in terms of public opinions in the Gulf that basically, like, emboldens, uh, 333 00:32:59,570 --> 00:33:05,150 Gulf rulers and Gulf leaders to, to to side with, with with with with Israel, 334 00:33:05,330 --> 00:33:09,320 uh, or to and I'm talking about again like before and before October 7th. 335 00:33:09,410 --> 00:33:18,490 Yeah. And and then, you know, the other layer is, uh, I think it's in the book that you and you talked about it a little bit in the talk, 336 00:33:18,500 --> 00:33:22,219 uh, the, the Israel washing of authoritarianism. 337 00:33:22,220 --> 00:33:32,870 Right. Um, and how, uh, you may, uh, kill you, but then, you know, if you play nice with, with the potential idea of one day, uh, 338 00:33:33,260 --> 00:33:39,350 speaking to Israeli officials and it it might you might think that it's it's going to be forgotten at the very same time when, 339 00:33:39,350 --> 00:33:46,990 when, uh, gulf regimes have been using Israeli, uh, tools to actually enhance their repression and, 340 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:51,110 um, and surveillance of, uh, and I'm thinking of the UAE, you know, using all these, all these. 341 00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,610 All these digital tools to to to to to surveil. 342 00:33:55,640 --> 00:34:00,560 And so yeah, I mean I know it's not a very clear question, but it's really about internal politics. 343 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:05,210 Like what can you tell us more about what's going on in the various countries and especially in Saudi Arabia? 344 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:11,750 Yeah, sure. So so the internal dynamics, I think are fairly straightforward, um, although it may not have appeared. 345 00:34:11,750 --> 00:34:20,090 So I think by 2019, I think the, the Gulf states were just had Iran on the top of their list and I think. 346 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:25,390 Uh, as I mentioned in the talk, you know, all of the kind of convergence that took place, 347 00:34:25,750 --> 00:34:28,510 the relations that took place behind the scenes in the lead up to this. 348 00:34:28,720 --> 00:34:37,170 Much of this was centred around, you know, dealing with Iran, like joint lobbying against Iran or acquiring technology in order to Syria, Iran. 349 00:34:37,180 --> 00:34:41,140 And then there's the domestic element, too, which is the spyware sales that we know about, 350 00:34:41,350 --> 00:34:49,260 which were intended to sort of as a as a domestic, uh, for domestic and domestic security, um, uh, concerns. 351 00:34:49,270 --> 00:34:56,470 Um, and so I think that the, the driver of this really was kind of this fear of Iran when it comes to the populations. 352 00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:02,589 Um, I think there was a sense of any kind of upset from the populations could be managed. 353 00:35:02,590 --> 00:35:08,559 It could be managed in two ways. It could be managed by selling this as something positive and selling. 354 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:14,200 This is something that was in the interest of the Palestinians, which is sort of what happened with the UAE, at least for this brief moment. 355 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,030 This idea of we're doing this for the Palestinians and to stop annexation. 356 00:35:18,430 --> 00:35:24,100 I think that was a key point that was, you know, made early on, um, as a way of selling this agreement. 357 00:35:24,310 --> 00:35:31,320 But the other way to sustain it was to simply just. You know, be aware that you could repress any protest that took place. 358 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,530 And then behind that is what's happened. There's an element of repression, too. 359 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:39,120 I mean, it's, uh, it was Covid. I think, conveniently enough, it was Covid. 360 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:45,180 And so you couldn't have that many protests. But I think there was very much an understanding that if this got too much out of hand, 361 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:49,650 it could be repressed the same way the Arab Spring movements were successfully repressed. 362 00:35:49,650 --> 00:35:53,940 And so the I think there's a two part, uh. Thinking around that. 363 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:58,110 Um. I think you asked me about Saudi Arabia. 364 00:35:58,710 --> 00:36:04,770 I don't know if you could be more specific. Like. Is it about, uh, the cost of normalisation now or. 365 00:36:05,820 --> 00:36:11,639 I mean, I guess I'm struck by the, you know, there are there are parallelism, 366 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:17,640 right between between, uh, between the Saudi situation, especially since 2015. 367 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:22,290 Right. And, um, what happens between Israel and Palestine and Israel? 368 00:36:22,290 --> 00:36:22,980 Palestine. Right. 369 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:31,170 I mean, you're the, uh, maybe maybe, you know, I'm imagining too much here, but, um, yeah, the war in Yemen has been really striking us all as. 370 00:36:31,380 --> 00:36:34,550 Yes, as as as a moment. 371 00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:43,090 Right. Or, uh, yeah. A moment of militarisation, of unleashing, you know, uh, violence against against, uh, thy neighbour. 372 00:36:43,110 --> 00:36:46,990 Yes. Uh, uh, almost a little more populist than you. 373 00:36:47,010 --> 00:36:51,930 I mean, there's there's that whole demographic dynamics between between Saudi Arabia and Yemen that, that fear of. 374 00:36:52,400 --> 00:37:00,450 So I don't know. No, I understand, I think I think, I guess what you're trying to go to, um, Saudi Arabia at that in those years is kind of post. 375 00:37:01,170 --> 00:37:09,479 And as the war in Yemen unfolded, got a lot of heat in Washington, I think Saudi Arabia became very isolated in Washington, I think. 376 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:14,280 Whereas if you think of its previous stature, it was, um, pretty powerful actor in DC. 377 00:37:14,370 --> 00:37:22,920 Um, there became an I think the culmination of this was Biden's vow to isolate, um, conference Mohammed bin Salman and make him a pariah. 378 00:37:23,190 --> 00:37:32,819 I mean, I think that really showed how how, uh, Saudi Arabia had lost ground in DC, um, by kind of entering this kind of pathway to normalisation. 379 00:37:32,820 --> 00:37:39,149 You can see how Saudi Arabia totally turned it around. Um, it became the renewed focus of the Biden administration. 380 00:37:39,150 --> 00:37:44,490 I mean, I think up until October 7th, its main priority was bringing Saudi Arabia into the accords. 381 00:37:44,730 --> 00:37:52,560 You had Blinken and others sent there regularly to try and engage in these talks and a massive turnaround, I think Saudi Arabia. 382 00:37:52,650 --> 00:37:56,250 It's interesting to kind of note that it hasn't changed anything, really, 383 00:37:56,250 --> 00:38:01,410 but by entering this conversation, it managed to completely change its reputation in Washington. 384 00:38:01,590 --> 00:38:04,860 You don't hear anything about Saudi Arabia being isolated anymore. 385 00:38:05,310 --> 00:38:10,950 Um, I think even with it's interesting to see, like even with Germany has done so. 386 00:38:10,950 --> 00:38:16,050 Germany temporarily suspended arms sales to Saudi Arabia after and because of the war in Yemen, 387 00:38:16,350 --> 00:38:23,470 and they resumed arms sales, um, I think around a year ago, citing its, uh, favourable attitude towards normalisation. 388 00:38:24,510 --> 00:38:30,470 So even towards places like Germany, Saudi Arabia has gained a lot by merely entertaining these talks and no more. 389 00:38:30,500 --> 00:38:32,990 Yeah, thanks. Thanks very much for.