1 00:00:01,060 --> 00:00:08,500 Thank you very much. I'm probably one of the few economists here, and you might ask yourself quite rightly, 2 00:00:08,500 --> 00:00:14,410 what economists have got to contribute to the whole topic of war and peace. 3 00:00:14,410 --> 00:00:22,600 So let me tell you, T.J., a little bit about what Paul and I have been doing for the last 10 years. 4 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:29,170 So, first of all, we started by studying war, not peace. 5 00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:39,340 So what type of war? If you sort of look at how many wars there are, so this is just simply the number of wars. 6 00:00:39,340 --> 00:00:45,400 And then this is the end of the Second World War. And this is sort of more or less up to today. 7 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,780 The Upsala prio dataset gives you the numbers. 8 00:00:49,780 --> 00:00:54,230 And this very light coloured one colonial war. 9 00:00:54,230 --> 00:00:59,170 So obviously they've sort of run out of from fashion because they know colonies any longer. 10 00:00:59,170 --> 00:01:05,710 And then they're international wars are the dark ones. They're very, very few of those. 11 00:01:05,710 --> 00:01:10,780 And the overwhelming majority of large scale violent conflict. 12 00:01:10,780 --> 00:01:16,750 So we're looking at conflicts that cause a thousand battle related deaths a year. 13 00:01:16,750 --> 00:01:26,380 These are military and civilian deaths. So civil war is the most common form of large scale violent conflict. 14 00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:31,720 So if you're looking only at those civil wars, again, I'm just looking at the numbers here. 15 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,680 And then they were quite a few at the after the Second World War. 16 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:40,930 And then it's sort of built up and reached peak in 92. 17 00:01:40,930 --> 00:01:51,610 And since the end of the Cold War, basically the world has become a safer place in terms of large scale, violent internal conflict. 18 00:01:51,610 --> 00:01:59,060 And for those of you who are in particularly interested in Africa, it's sort of Miro's very much the sort of global development. 19 00:01:59,060 --> 00:02:06,640 So, yes, the chance of the universities. Right. The world is now safer then than it previously was. 20 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:15,910 So is an economist. I can sort of give you those sort of numbers and data handling sort of what I do day in, day out. 21 00:02:15,910 --> 00:02:24,340 So my research always centres on civil war. And we're looking at what causes the civil war. 22 00:02:24,340 --> 00:02:28,720 Why do civil wars break out once they've broken out? 23 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:33,010 What is their duration and then what happens? War. 24 00:02:33,010 --> 00:02:40,060 So let me just sit and talk you through those. There's a diff different issues. 25 00:02:40,060 --> 00:02:43,060 So I'd start with the onset of civil war. 26 00:02:43,060 --> 00:02:54,850 And Paul and I have come up with a model of civil war which aims to sort of estimate which factors make a country more prone to civil war than others. 27 00:02:54,850 --> 00:03:00,970 And the method we are using is a global panel study. 28 00:03:00,970 --> 00:03:08,260 So let me be quite clear about this, because this is important to me that you understand how we work. 29 00:03:08,260 --> 00:03:13,060 So we basically borrow a method from medical science. 30 00:03:13,060 --> 00:03:19,990 So, for example, you can study what determines what makes a person prone to having a heart attack. 31 00:03:19,990 --> 00:03:24,520 So you can score people. You can sort of say heart attack, yes or no. 32 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:31,510 And then you can sort of see does this person look at does this person smoke? 33 00:03:31,510 --> 00:03:34,870 What's the exercise regime? What's their cholesterol? 34 00:03:34,870 --> 00:03:42,640 And then you can sort of calculate which factors are most important at determining the risk of a heart attack. 35 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:51,550 And this is exactly the same what we did with countries. So we've got all countries and we sort of look at did a war break heart, yes or no? 36 00:03:51,550 --> 00:04:04,390 And then what sort of characteristics does this does this country have said this was them? 37 00:04:04,390 --> 00:04:13,740 It's really a string of papers, but in particular this greed and grievance in civil war paper. 38 00:04:13,740 --> 00:04:20,920 So these explanations of civil war onset. So what sort of characteristics might make a country more conflict prone? 39 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:28,180 We were sort of agnostic. We looked at economics as as one way of explaining it, because for us, 40 00:04:28,180 --> 00:04:38,080 the key in organising and maintaining large scale violent conflict is that you have to recruit and maintain a private army. 41 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:43,000 And you need money for this and finances. So we sort of thought it must have something to do with economics. 42 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:56,620 But we also look at political science. Explanations to democratic countries have less of a proneness, choose large scale bomb conflict sociology. 43 00:04:56,620 --> 00:05:00,420 So the difference between people in terms of religion or. 44 00:05:00,420 --> 00:05:09,960 Message to your class. Does that make a difference in the probability of experiencing a war history if you've already had a civil war, 45 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:15,840 does that make you more conflict prone geography if you're more mountainous? 46 00:05:15,840 --> 00:05:23,250 If you a country's population is dispersed in a particular way, maybe more concentrated or more dispersed. 47 00:05:23,250 --> 00:05:31,590 Does that matter? So we do which predictive Gnostic and such are looking at what makes a country more conflict prone? 48 00:05:31,590 --> 00:05:44,530 If I give you a few conclusions from this onset model, we find very little evidence that the things that we can measure as grievances. 49 00:05:44,530 --> 00:05:51,870 So diversity in society, but that matters of religious or ethnic diversity matters. 50 00:05:51,870 --> 00:05:59,980 Income inequality also does not matter to does not make a country more conflict prone on average. 51 00:05:59,980 --> 00:06:10,560 Yeah, I'm stressing on average because we all know Uncle Joe, who should have turned 90 and smoked three packs a day and didn't have a heart attack. 52 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,400 So there can always be a case, you know, where this is different. 53 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:24,090 But this is on average economic factors are very important, sets the level, the growth and the structure of income that we found to be important. 54 00:06:24,090 --> 00:06:30,450 So first of all, the poorer you are, the more likely you are to have a civil war. 55 00:06:30,450 --> 00:06:34,470 So poverty really matters. And so that's the level of income. 56 00:06:34,470 --> 00:06:45,450 And if you've experienced a recent growth decline, then you're also more likely to have civil war. 57 00:06:45,450 --> 00:06:50,130 And these might have something to do with what we call opportunity costs. 58 00:06:50,130 --> 00:07:05,910 So you've got nothing to lose. You know, you might as well join a rebel army because there's very little other employment, formal employment possible. 59 00:07:05,910 --> 00:07:12,930 And you can sort of gain from taking part in this in this in this civil war. 60 00:07:12,930 --> 00:07:17,690 It might also give you access to education and might give you access to medical help. 61 00:07:17,690 --> 00:07:25,320 There are all sorts of different reasons why people might want to join a civil war movement. 62 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:29,850 So the structure of income, what I mean here is sort of in particular, 63 00:07:29,850 --> 00:07:36,000 we found that if your country is rich in natural resources, then you're very conflict prone. 64 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:41,700 So one example, of course, are the blood diamonds in Sierra Leone and Angola. 65 00:07:41,700 --> 00:07:47,040 But there are other examples of timber in Liberia. 66 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:51,120 And think of the drugs in Afghanistan and Colombia, 67 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:58,500 which have been financing those those wars fought for a long time and said these are very important. 68 00:07:58,500 --> 00:08:07,320 So these sort of sources of income are very important. Well, we also found was that if you have a large diaspora community, 69 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:12,930 your wars have more conflict prone because these diaspora communities, for example, the Tamils. 70 00:08:12,930 --> 00:08:21,960 But also the Kurds. I mean, a lot of diaspora populations basically tax their population and send the money back home. 71 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,520 And the hard currency actually can buy you a lot of weapons. 72 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:35,820 And in particular, the case of the Tamil Tigers. That's very well documented. And this is very intuitive. 73 00:08:35,820 --> 00:08:40,320 The past conflict makes the country more conflict prone. 74 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:49,710 So these are the cycles of violence that we heard and heard about just now. 75 00:08:49,710 --> 00:08:57,870 The good news is if you can maintain the peace for longer, the risk of a new civil war breaking out declines. 76 00:08:57,870 --> 00:09:06,590 So if you can manage to sort of stabilise the peace for longer and longer, longer, the better are the chances that it will continue to. 77 00:09:06,590 --> 00:09:16,590 That the country will remain peaceful. So this was more on the on the onset of of civil war. 78 00:09:16,590 --> 00:09:21,700 But what determines once the war is broken out, how long it lasts? 79 00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:22,470 So, first of all, 80 00:09:22,470 --> 00:09:32,340 we found that all these sort of factors that I've just gone through are not very important in determining the length of the civil war. 81 00:09:32,340 --> 00:09:39,990 In fact, there are very few variables that we could really nail down a sort of at explaining the duration of civil war. 82 00:09:39,990 --> 00:09:50,760 One thing that was quite important was natural resource prices. So if they, for example, go up, then the war continues for a bit longer. 83 00:09:50,760 --> 00:10:00,440 Statistically speaking, that's all I wanted to say about the duration of war for the for the moment because. 84 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:04,730 I do not only study war, but I do want to study peace as well. 85 00:10:04,730 --> 00:10:10,430 So from my point of view, there are two main post-conflict challenges. 86 00:10:10,430 --> 00:10:20,900 One is the economic recovery. And one is the risk reduction of risk reduction in the sense of really peace building. 87 00:10:20,900 --> 00:10:26,300 How do you maintain the peace? So I'm first, can you talk about the economic recovery? 88 00:10:26,300 --> 00:10:30,710 And then I'm going to talk about the reduction of risk. 89 00:10:30,710 --> 00:10:35,300 And of course, this this is the development and this the security. 90 00:10:35,300 --> 00:10:37,880 And one cannot happen without the other. 91 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:45,110 So Kofi Annan's sort of no security, without development, no development, without security is certainly right. 92 00:10:45,110 --> 00:10:52,070 But the instruments with which we obtain one or the other might not be the same. 93 00:10:52,070 --> 00:11:00,150 But these two are interdependent. Said the economic recovery. 94 00:11:00,150 --> 00:11:07,790 We first of all ask ourselves, is there a peace dividend after all, these countries are not spending all this much on killing each other any longer. 95 00:11:07,790 --> 00:11:14,730 And if there is such a spontaneous recovery process, is there teep peace dividend? 96 00:11:14,730 --> 00:11:21,840 And can the outside world help? Does aid increase the growth post-conflict? 97 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:26,910 And does policy improve growth post-conflict? 98 00:11:26,910 --> 00:11:30,240 So if you're making reforms, these sort of windows of opportunity, 99 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:37,500 some was talking about these sort of drivers of of of change in a post-conflict world. 100 00:11:37,500 --> 00:11:47,520 Do they actually help growth? And we were able to do an empirical analysis of post-conflict societies. 101 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:53,460 There are not many studies of this ilk about. And as Simon already alluded to it, 102 00:11:53,460 --> 00:11:58,170 you are only really able to study this since the end of the Cold War because 103 00:11:58,170 --> 00:12:02,350 it was just too overlaid with all sorts of ideological problems previously. 104 00:12:02,350 --> 00:12:12,930 So I'm always facing a data problem in the sense that I can only look at relatively few post-conflict societies. 105 00:12:12,930 --> 00:12:21,270 I do find for the ones that I can study that there is about one per cent extra growth per year. 106 00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:31,050 And the good news is that you can, with aid, increase this extra growth. 107 00:12:31,050 --> 00:12:41,340 Interestingly, the timing is important here. It happens three to seven years after the end of the conflict. 108 00:12:41,340 --> 00:12:47,640 That aid can increase growth. But traditionally, this is not what donors have done. 109 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,510 Just think what donors typically do, that the conflict stops. 110 00:12:51,510 --> 00:12:58,050 And there's been some sort of negotiated settlement and they all try come in with a lot of money. 111 00:12:58,050 --> 00:13:01,440 But the economy is really, really on its knees. 112 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:13,110 So the absorptive capacity is just simply not there to sort of really use this aid in a growth enhancing away. 113 00:13:13,110 --> 00:13:16,140 Traditionally, those have also gone out really quickly. 114 00:13:16,140 --> 00:13:27,600 So it's sort of like they've ever won this country with a lot of aid and then the next disaster happens and they go into the next problem country. 115 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:33,030 So our message has been quite clear. Go in slowly, build it up slowly. 116 00:13:33,030 --> 00:13:37,050 There is a deep dividend that you can reap an increase. 117 00:13:37,050 --> 00:13:43,830 And if the peace is maintained for about 10 years, then this poor country is just like any other poor country. 118 00:13:43,830 --> 00:13:48,510 And you can treat it like that as an aid donor. 119 00:13:48,510 --> 00:13:52,620 But you're really in there for the long haul. We're not talking to use here. 120 00:13:52,620 --> 00:14:01,740 We're talking 10 years. And that's been quite, quite a potent suggestion to policymakers. 121 00:14:01,740 --> 00:14:06,900 And we sort of looked at we, again, were gnostic about it. 122 00:14:06,900 --> 00:14:10,740 What sort of policies are particularly important? 123 00:14:10,740 --> 00:14:18,690 Is it the type of monetary inflationary sort of policies that the post-conflict people from the IMF would advertise? 124 00:14:18,690 --> 00:14:20,220 Or is it structural policies? 125 00:14:20,220 --> 00:14:30,270 The World Bank knows you go after trick, get your trade right, or you end sort of saying you have to really work on social inclusion. 126 00:14:30,270 --> 00:14:39,210 And that little bit of data I have for this is sort of tends to indicate that the growth 127 00:14:39,210 --> 00:14:44,730 process post-conflict is particularly sensitive to improvements in social policies. 128 00:14:44,730 --> 00:14:53,160 Probably no surprise to an audience like this. So this has been on economic recovery. 129 00:14:53,160 --> 00:15:02,940 So it's really important to sort of because we know we reduce the risk of a new conflict breaking out when people have opportunities, 130 00:15:02,940 --> 00:15:10,950 when they have employment, when they have some sort of prosperity or at least hope that it will get better. 131 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:16,620 One, when there is sort of growth in this sort of trickle through process. Okay. 132 00:15:16,620 --> 00:15:21,570 But can you actually sort of can we actually say something about the reduction 133 00:15:21,570 --> 00:15:31,810 of the risk through military expenditure that we just think for a minute? 134 00:15:31,810 --> 00:15:36,690 The the risk of having a renewed conflict is really high. 135 00:15:36,690 --> 00:15:44,370 You have about a 40 percent, 40 percent of all peace processes collapse within a decade. 136 00:15:44,370 --> 00:15:54,140 And so my question, one of my questions will be, can you actually reduce this risk by spending on the army? 137 00:15:54,140 --> 00:16:04,560 And important, I looked at this. And we actually find that if the country increases military spending and post-conflict, 138 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:12,000 that it does exactly the opposite, it doesn't bring the rest down. So the idea I deter the rebel movement, 139 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:19,920 either the old one or this or any new ones by sort of increasing my military expenditure, that simply doesn't work. 140 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:26,700 It's also really tragic that a lot of post conflict governments do exactly that. 141 00:16:26,700 --> 00:16:29,820 They do increase their military expenditure. 142 00:16:29,820 --> 00:16:39,270 It's obvious to you that during the war, military expenditure goes up, but after the war's ended, it does not go back to the pre-war level. 143 00:16:39,270 --> 00:16:40,840 And these are extremely poor countries. 144 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:48,990 We're talking about countries that have enormous needs in terms of health and education and infrastructure needs. 145 00:16:48,990 --> 00:16:58,980 So this is really sad and it does not deter new rebellions breaking out. 146 00:16:58,980 --> 00:17:06,780 So what about U.N. peacekeeping or coalitions of the willing? 147 00:17:06,780 --> 00:17:14,400 Do they actually help to prolong the peace? Said coalitions of the willing. 148 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:18,820 I have got no data on. But what I can. Lockhart and what. 149 00:17:18,820 --> 00:17:26,880 What we didn't look at were U.N. peacekeeping operations. 150 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:38,010 So at the moment that there is very little that there are very few studies cross country on peace building efforts. 151 00:17:38,010 --> 00:17:45,900 I'm sort of trying to think a little bit through what typically happens in post-conflict practise. 152 00:17:45,900 --> 00:17:52,680 And this is a sort of very rough sketch. And people who do this in more detail might be unhappy with this. 153 00:17:52,680 --> 00:18:00,600 But I sort of think there's some typically there's a negotiated settlement. 154 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:04,200 About half of all conflicts end with a negotiated settlement. 155 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:10,140 A quarter of one by the government outright and a quarter are one by rebels. 156 00:18:10,140 --> 00:18:14,860 So negotiated settlements is the sort of most typical. 157 00:18:14,860 --> 00:18:25,800 And two to two war. Then there is very often a light presence of peacekeeping troops and there's some effort of pump priming democracy. 158 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:30,840 And the external actors maintain the light footprint. 159 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:36,790 Then you have post-conflict elections and then you have democracy and you can withdraw everybody. 160 00:18:36,790 --> 00:18:44,820 So this is sort of my caricature of what seems to happen in a lot of post-conflict situations. 161 00:18:44,820 --> 00:18:58,830 So we started this statistically. So we had these 68 post-conflict episodes and as had 40 percent of all of these conflicts record with in the decade, 162 00:18:58,830 --> 00:19:06,450 says a really important issue to sort of get this get get this right. 163 00:19:06,450 --> 00:19:12,540 So what did we find from statistical results? So what prolongs the peace? 164 00:19:12,540 --> 00:19:18,300 First of all, there is really no safe period in the first decade. 165 00:19:18,300 --> 00:19:21,860 It's not that once you've had two years of peace, you're in a much safer place. 166 00:19:21,860 --> 00:19:25,740 Or once you've had four years of peace, you're a much safer place. 167 00:19:25,740 --> 00:19:33,150 You really. There's no such thing. You really have to sort of be in there for that for for the long haul. 168 00:19:33,150 --> 00:19:40,680 Keep in mind that the U.N. typically budgets for two years for for peacekeeping operations. 169 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:47,160 So this is certainly not enough. So growth is very important. 170 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:55,680 So a stagnant economy has a bout of a 42 percent risk of having another conflict. 171 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,610 But if you manage 10 percent income growth might seem very high to you. 172 00:19:59,610 --> 00:20:04,470 But places like Uganda have come close to this. 173 00:20:04,470 --> 00:20:11,340 Then you really substantially reduce the risk of of having another conflict. 174 00:20:11,340 --> 00:20:21,450 So it's from goes from 40 to 27 percent. Elections, elections are always really featured is incredibly important. 175 00:20:21,450 --> 00:20:28,590 And unfortunately, I must say very often also as a departure date for peacekeeping troops to withdraw. 176 00:20:28,590 --> 00:20:34,050 So what do the elections do? The post-conflict risk? Nothing. 177 00:20:34,050 --> 00:20:40,200 Statistically speaking, nothing. Just before the election, the risk is slightly down. 178 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:47,880 And after the elections, the risk is slightly up. But overall, there's no effect. 179 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:56,740 I haven't got that many subsequent elections. But they don't seem to have a different effect either of the few that I have. 180 00:20:56,740 --> 00:21:10,780 Peacekeeping rarely works. If we double expenditure for for a post-conflict country, this risk of 40 percent is reduced to 31 percent. 181 00:21:10,780 --> 00:21:17,200 So let me just sort of come up with some sort of ideas on the post-conflict. 182 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:24,100 General, general ideas about the post-conflict challenges. They are very fragile. 183 00:21:24,100 --> 00:21:31,160 We've heard that term from Simon already. But, you know, the statistics are very clear on this 40 percent or so high, 184 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:44,920 a high proportion of post-conflict peace efforts that collapse democracy and elections are obviously intrinsically desirable, 185 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:56,650 but they don't give you peace. So would you have come to the conclusion that you really need a package of military 186 00:21:56,650 --> 00:22:06,380 and economic assistance and you need this for a considerable period of time, 187 00:22:06,380 --> 00:22:14,830 10 years? This is this is what, you know, international agency judges should be looking at. 188 00:22:14,830 --> 00:22:21,100 Of course, our results are exclusively statistical. 189 00:22:21,100 --> 00:22:30,550 And you really have to apply this knowledge to the local situation. 190 00:22:30,550 --> 00:22:40,040 And I think this is very often being misunderstood. So, for example, we get military people who sort of come and sort of say to us, 191 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:46,900 you've got these models where you can predict that the peace will break down or that a conflict breaks out. 192 00:22:46,900 --> 00:22:51,340 Countries sort of just give us an estimate of this in this country. 193 00:22:51,340 --> 00:22:54,730 And I'm always sort of aghast. You know, people want to use our model line. 194 00:22:54,730 --> 00:23:00,790 This, of course, I can crank the data through this, but it isn't a particularly useful way of. 195 00:23:00,790 --> 00:23:08,200 It's not an early warning system. And you know what? Through your foreign office and all your other sort of channels of information, 196 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:13,750 you should be much better placed to sort of find out about these things than using a relatively 197 00:23:13,750 --> 00:23:21,010 crass and crude method of of of conflict prediction and the call you have for a model. 198 00:23:21,010 --> 00:23:26,580 So it's not very good about predicting the individuals countries risk. 199 00:23:26,580 --> 00:23:30,370 Yeah. For example, if you wanted to find about your heart attack risk, 200 00:23:30,370 --> 00:23:35,950 you don't go through this sort of big public health model because you know much more about that. 201 00:23:35,950 --> 00:23:43,150 It's much more detailed information. You know, you know, whether your brother has died of a heart attack, you know the family history. 202 00:23:43,150 --> 00:23:49,810 You'd know an awful lot more things than this sort of big mortal could sort of ever look at. 203 00:23:49,810 --> 00:23:53,290 But for public health prescriptions, the model, 204 00:23:53,290 --> 00:24:02,830 the heart attack model that I sort of laid out is very important because then you can sort of decide as a public policymaker, 205 00:24:02,830 --> 00:24:11,750 how much money do I want to earmark towards reducing smoking and other visibly other health initiatives? 206 00:24:11,750 --> 00:24:19,060 And this is exactly how I think people have to sort of see the statistical efforts that we're pursuing. 207 00:24:19,060 --> 00:24:27,720 It does inform your agencies like the World Bank or defeat to whoever is interested in it to sort of see it. 208 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:33,850 Is there a peace dividend on average? You. Do we have to treat post-conflict countries differently? 209 00:24:33,850 --> 00:24:41,730 Because you might laugh about this, but until relatively recently, the World Bank did not make allowances for post-conflict countries. 210 00:24:41,730 --> 00:24:54,070 They were just treated like other poor countries. There were no special countries, country packages for them. 211 00:24:54,070 --> 00:25:03,730 So to my mind, these are going to be my concluding remarks on such a security and development is the problem of failing states. 212 00:25:03,730 --> 00:25:10,090 Everybody's got different names for these. So some people call them are failing, some fragile. 213 00:25:10,090 --> 00:25:14,560 Some call them low income countries under stress, like US countries. 214 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:19,000 That's the World Bank. Countries in difficult partnerships. 215 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,840 But I think we all know sort of what it means. 216 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:35,890 And if I just sort of come up what sort of very broad definition these are countries that are not able to do basic things for their citizens. 217 00:25:35,890 --> 00:25:47,890 So, for example, they are unable to provide security to to their citizens and they're not able to end or they're not able to provide public goods. 218 00:25:47,890 --> 00:25:55,580 What do I mean by that said? These are they're not able to provide a framework that. 219 00:25:55,580 --> 00:25:59,240 And Abels people to lift themselves out of poverty. 220 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:13,520 So these people who live in failing states are trapped in this cycle of poverty, underdevelopment and insecurity. 221 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:19,190 And this is an awful lot of people, because when you look at these sort of countries and again, 222 00:26:19,190 --> 00:26:24,350 every agency is different, agency defines some differently. 223 00:26:24,350 --> 00:26:32,210 Most development agencies never publish a list because, you know, Haiti and Angola obviously in there. 224 00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:36,140 But what about Papua New Guinea? 225 00:26:36,140 --> 00:26:37,560 Is that in or out? 226 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:47,330 Soren's who they don't want to have those sort of public discussions about it and they don't want to help sort of blacklists of of countries. 227 00:26:47,330 --> 00:26:53,750 But about one billion people in this world live in these failing states. 228 00:26:53,750 --> 00:27:07,220 And I've done some sort of statistical analysis on these states. And if we look at the countries that are low income, 229 00:27:07,220 --> 00:27:17,030 so failing states in this definition sort of includes countries that are providing really bad policies like Belarus and and a couple of other places, 230 00:27:17,030 --> 00:27:25,490 but they're actually not low income. So if you only look at the low income countries, then seven percent of the world's population live in those. 231 00:27:25,490 --> 00:27:32,720 So that's the Haiti's an Angola's. But 15 percent of the world's poor live in those countries. 232 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:38,220 And over the last 15 years, they've had either zero growth or slightly negative growth rate. 233 00:27:38,220 --> 00:27:48,580 So they are stagnant. And think of what happened to the other countries that have got a lot of poor people like India and China in the last 15 years. 234 00:27:48,580 --> 00:27:57,080 Zoom. Yeah. They've zoomed ahead. So this is sort of decoupling effect is a divergence effect in the in the in the global economy, 235 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:04,460 where people who live in the failing states and in particular ones in the in the in the very low income ones, 236 00:28:04,460 --> 00:28:08,960 they are sort of lagging further and further behind. 237 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:17,390 And if this trend continues, we estimate that about 30 percent of the world's poor are going to live in these countries. 238 00:28:17,390 --> 00:28:26,060 And so on the topic of building political will, it's just a humanitarian concern. 239 00:28:26,060 --> 00:28:39,980 You know, we we we cannot allow that these countries disconnect that much from being from the worlds from the rest of the world's development. 240 00:28:39,980 --> 00:28:45,170 So since we economists, we've also put sort of a high price tag on this. 241 00:28:45,170 --> 00:28:53,280 So we think that it costs the world about this at two hundred and seventy billion U.S. dollars. 242 00:28:53,280 --> 00:29:01,490 Sorry, I forgot the dollar sign there per year. So these are the costs that are just generated by failing states. 243 00:29:01,490 --> 00:29:08,030 What are these costs, you might ask yourself? Well, short war causes a lot of costs. 244 00:29:08,030 --> 00:29:18,650 People get killed, but people don't only get killed. That also get you know, they have disabilities, which affects their sort of future lives. 245 00:29:18,650 --> 00:29:25,370 You're losing income. But you're also causing poverty. 246 00:29:25,370 --> 00:29:34,190 So the costs of war and poverty in the country. That's already quite a large cost. 247 00:29:34,190 --> 00:29:37,550 But these costs also spill-over into the region. 248 00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:47,120 Think of all the refugees and all the problems that bring this sort of typically they just people just walk across the border. 249 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:55,160 So it's poor countries like Pakistan that have had to cope with millions of Afghani refugees over the years. 250 00:29:55,160 --> 00:30:06,200 So the highest. The overwhelming part of the of these costs of state failure are two countries in the region. 251 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:13,250 And I think that actually raises a big and uncomfortable issues about the sovereignty of nations. 252 00:30:13,250 --> 00:30:20,330 So if their problems spill-over into the region and we didn't even try and attempt to look at the costs through the world, 253 00:30:20,330 --> 00:30:24,920 through drugs, because they're basically do come from very, 254 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:35,050 very few places that are not Colombia and in Afghanistan, where a large parts of the country are not within, 255 00:30:35,050 --> 00:30:40,700 where the state monopoly of violence is sort of broken down. And this is where the drugs are produced. 256 00:30:40,700 --> 00:30:48,180 You get human trafficking, you get huge migration, forced migration from from those areas. 257 00:30:48,180 --> 00:30:54,920 Worldwide, I say you've got enormous sort of spill-over cost. 258 00:30:54,920 --> 00:31:01,680 And how does. Compared to the assistance that the world is at the moment giving to countries, 259 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:11,100 so aid to these countries is about 80 billion U.S. dollars at moment per year. 260 00:31:11,100 --> 00:31:24,180 And even if donor countries fulfil their U.N. target of giving point seven percent of their annual income to to development aid, 261 00:31:24,180 --> 00:31:32,370 then at the moment this is only a few countries that actually do this, like Norway and Sweden and the Netherlands. 262 00:31:32,370 --> 00:31:35,580 Canada's sort of quite close to that. 263 00:31:35,580 --> 00:31:43,240 But anyhow, if if we don't a country did this than we had, then we would have one hundred and thirty billion U.S. dollars. 264 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:48,840 You say it's nowhere near, you know, the sort of cost, just as a comparison. 265 00:31:48,840 --> 00:32:00,600 What state failure costs the world? So we really have to tackle this issue because unless we break this cycle of sick development. 266 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:11,610 And and while underdevelopment and large scale violent conflict, these countries are going to fall further and further behind. 267 00:32:11,610 --> 00:32:18,547 And I'll stop that. Thank you.