1 00:00:00,180 --> 00:00:10,290 Thank you, Tim. Thank you very much for having me. I stand here somewhat trepidatious and certainly humble because I'm not an expert on Ukraine. 2 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:15,000 I haven't been to Ukraine and I'm humbled before the fact there are actually Ukrainians here. 3 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:23,210 And I believe passionately in my politics that the determination of what happens to a country should be in the hands of the people themselves. 4 00:00:23,220 --> 00:00:34,080 And that is what my talk is, in fact, about. But let me start by setting the scene on where we are today in terms of a prospective peace process. 5 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:41,639 The consensus among military and diplomatic pundits is that the conflict will grind on through this year and into next, 6 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,270 with no decisive military victory for either side. 7 00:00:44,700 --> 00:00:51,060 According to the pundits, much will depend on the success or failure of Ukraine's expected spring offensive. 8 00:00:51,630 --> 00:00:57,510 But no one seems to think it likely that either Ukraine or Russia will achieve their overall war aims. 9 00:00:57,930 --> 00:01:02,130 The first of removing the aggressor from all Ukrainian sovereign territory. 10 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:07,800 The second, the defeat and the destruction of the so-called fascist regime in Kiev. 11 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:16,470 According to the recently leaked US intelligence documents, the US does not expect peace negotiations in 2023, 12 00:01:16,830 --> 00:01:23,310 even if Ukraine secures significant territorial gains and unsustainable losses on the Russian side. 13 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:30,690 According to the leaked US assessment, neither side is likely to secure significant advantage over the other. 14 00:01:31,470 --> 00:01:39,540 There is also seeming expert consensus that both sides are running out of ammunition in a battle of logistics and reduced resources. 15 00:01:39,930 --> 00:01:48,750 Perhaps this will provide an impetus to negotiate, but the nasty fact remains that Russia occupies some 20% of Ukrainian territory. 16 00:01:49,170 --> 00:01:54,540 Ukraine's economy is in ruins and the country has lost perhaps 100,000 casualties. 17 00:01:55,110 --> 00:02:01,530 Ukraine's military capabilities are sustained by outside countries, a situation that cannot endure indefinitely, 18 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:09,150 particularly as ammunition stocks are run down and material production is vastly exceeded by expenditure. 19 00:02:09,780 --> 00:02:15,960 It is less clear, but Russia too may not be able to sustain the current level of conflict or casualties. 20 00:02:16,350 --> 00:02:19,890 Although Putin's rhetoric suggests that he is ready for a long war. 21 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,190 But intelligence assessments aside, 22 00:02:23,640 --> 00:02:30,750 we can see a lot from the statements of the parties where neither side is indicating anything approaching readiness to discuss peace terms, 23 00:02:31,260 --> 00:02:39,150 though neither side rules it out. No war will end until both parties want it to or are pressurised into wanting to. 24 00:02:39,870 --> 00:02:45,299 Examining Zelensky's ten point peace plan and the Russians indications that they want, quote, 25 00:02:45,300 --> 00:02:51,990 recognition, unquote, of new, quote, territorial realities, unquote, i.e., Russian occupation. 26 00:02:52,410 --> 00:02:57,360 It's clear that there is a gulf between the parties on what would constitute an acceptable peace. 27 00:02:58,350 --> 00:03:03,090 There are, moreover, many indications that Russia would be content with half a peace, 28 00:03:03,510 --> 00:03:11,040 a ceasefire or armistice that would preserve a frozen conflict, a status quo that it perpetuated in Georgia, 29 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:17,700 in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Transnistria and Moldova, and to a degree in Syria and of course, 30 00:03:17,910 --> 00:03:24,870 in Ukraine itself since 2014 when it first occupied Crimea and large portions of eastern Ukraine. 31 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,850 Foreign Minister Lavrov has said as much in terms this might be acceptable, 32 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:35,040 acceptable to Russia, it would not be to Ukraine or its major ally, the US. 33 00:03:35,310 --> 00:03:38,430 As the US Secretary of State has recently confirmed. 34 00:03:39,030 --> 00:03:49,170 Similarly, continued long term, low level conflict as Ukraine has endured since 2014 may also be an acceptable result for Russia, 35 00:03:49,590 --> 00:03:57,450 leaving Ukraine in a perpetually weakened and destabilised condition with a significant proportion of its territory under foreign occupation. 36 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:03,870 Like it or not, these possibilities remain, however, very plausible medium term outcomes. 37 00:04:04,380 --> 00:04:12,690 In either case, Ukraine would be hobbled, unable to rebuild its economy or advance towards its goals of EU or NATO membership, 38 00:04:13,110 --> 00:04:22,260 and thus to secure a more prosperous future. Given the likelihood of sustained military stalemate, yet enormous costs and casualties on both sides, 39 00:04:22,710 --> 00:04:26,460 it is foreseeable that others will increase the pressure for a peace deal. 40 00:04:27,060 --> 00:04:32,970 Speculation about a peace deal tends to focus on what kind of territorial division might be agreed. 41 00:04:33,630 --> 00:04:39,060 I do not want to guess what the terms of any peace might be, but this focus on territory alone, 42 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,870 which is all too typical amongst those negotiating peace deals, 43 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:49,379 is too reductive and ignores many elements that will need to be considered if any negotiation 44 00:04:49,380 --> 00:04:54,960 and thus resulting deal is to be comprehensive and therefore effective and enduring. 45 00:04:55,740 --> 00:04:58,890 One key aspect is who is actually going to be at the table? 46 00:04:59,310 --> 00:05:02,600 This framework. Work begins to dictate what the outcome might be. 47 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:10,790 At the core of any negotiation, of course, will be Russia and Ukraine themselves, but no one pretends that others will not be closely involved, 48 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:18,410 namely the US and NATO on Ukraine's side and China on Russia's, even if it is not directly supplying weapons to China. 49 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:26,240 China, sorry, weapons to Russia. China's so-called peace plan or two clearly indicates its partisanship in this conflict. 50 00:05:27,170 --> 00:05:34,730 These proximate groupings might be involved in offering guarantees for any resulting agreement, given the lack of trust between the parties. 51 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:40,130 Perhaps others, such as others of the so-called BRICS, will be loosely involved. 52 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:49,220 Although the likes of India and Brazil have hitherto only been peripherally engaged, it's in neither interests or predilections to take sides. 53 00:05:49,790 --> 00:05:56,630 Turkey will doubtless demand a role that would be better without the cynical and repressive Erdogan in charge. 54 00:05:57,410 --> 00:06:02,420 Perhaps the UN will be involved, but Putin is unlikely to allow a substantive role, 55 00:06:02,690 --> 00:06:09,950 given that Secretary-General Gutierrez has so clearly condemned Russia's aggression and thereby shown himself to be not neutral, 56 00:06:10,190 --> 00:06:15,080 but instead rightly positioned himself as the defender of the UN Charter. 57 00:06:16,190 --> 00:06:21,920 But if there is to be a cessation of hostilities somewhere, someone will need to monitor it and report. 58 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:29,990 But to whom? A UN Security Council ruled by a divided permanent five where one warring party holds a veto. 59 00:06:30,860 --> 00:06:36,559 Perhaps on a messy, messy, tendentious, multinational affair will monitor any peace. 60 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:42,800 Instead, any agreement between the parties, perhaps based on territorial compromise, 61 00:06:43,250 --> 00:06:48,830 will need to be framed within a broader understanding of the regional and institutional context. 62 00:06:49,430 --> 00:06:56,840 Ukraine has repeatedly expressed its wish for NATO membership, and NATO's, for its part, has indicated its eventual willingness for that. 63 00:06:57,290 --> 00:07:00,560 But this is likely to be the reddest of red lines for Putin. 64 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:08,360 If so, and in turn, Ukraine will then reasonably require substantial guarantees of its security from other states, 65 00:07:08,810 --> 00:07:14,390 NATO's or a group of militarily credible countries led above all by the US. 66 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:24,680 More plausible and still highly valuable to Ukraine is EU membership, although more likely than NATO's membership, 67 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:31,940 it is much harder to achieve as it involves much more than mere willingness on both sides the EU and Ukraine, 68 00:07:32,300 --> 00:07:37,040 but also the alignment of Ukraine's laws and procedures with the so-called acquis, 69 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:45,080 the voluminous body of practice and regulation of every sector of the economy required of all Member States, including new ones. 70 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:50,030 This will be a long road. A longer road still is a longer road. 71 00:07:50,030 --> 00:07:55,399 Still is the one towards a new European security structure which might replace the 72 00:07:55,400 --> 00:08:00,500 antagonistic postures of NATO and Russia with something more collaborative and inclusive. 73 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:05,100 But this must await a new democratic Russia, which looks like a long wait. 74 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:10,610 Indeed, there are other elements of any agreement which will have to be somehow addressed. 75 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:17,930 What happens to Ukraine's nuclear power facilities? How will they be secured if near to any territorial dividing line? 76 00:08:18,140 --> 00:08:22,430 Or worse, if they remain in occupied territory? What about grain exports? 77 00:08:22,670 --> 00:08:25,790 A major interest, of course, to outside countries, too. 78 00:08:26,330 --> 00:08:35,210 How will these be facilitated and guaranteed? What happens to Ukraine's millions of refugees, including from currently occupied areas? 79 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:40,610 And not least what of war crimes? How are these to be accounted for and justice delivered? 80 00:08:41,150 --> 00:08:46,280 Then there is compensation and reparations for the massive damage that has been inflicted on Ukraine. 81 00:08:47,690 --> 00:08:52,160 But in all this international discussion, there are groups of people who must not be ignored. 82 00:08:52,730 --> 00:08:55,670 I have spent many years working on conflicts around the world, 83 00:08:55,910 --> 00:09:02,540 and it's clear to me that if you ignore the needs of those most affected by dispute and war, you will not have sustainable peace. 84 00:09:02,990 --> 00:09:05,990 The seeds of future conflict and instability will remain. 85 00:09:06,620 --> 00:09:13,309 I spent four and a half years on the UN Security Council discussing everywhere from Iraq to Palestine and Western 86 00:09:13,310 --> 00:09:19,340 Sahara and the one group of people you could almost guarantee you would not be in the room were the people, 87 00:09:19,340 --> 00:09:21,590 of course, from the place we were discussing. 88 00:09:22,310 --> 00:09:30,010 It's impossible to imagine a sustainable peace in Yemen without accounting for the wishes for self-determination of the people of South Yemen, 89 00:09:30,020 --> 00:09:30,740 for instance. 90 00:09:31,340 --> 00:09:40,070 They should not be a dispensation for a collective peace in Syria without accounting for the wishes of the Kurds in northeast Syria for autonomy. 91 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:46,819 Likewise, there will be no sustainable peace in Kosovo until there is an adequate mechanism to address the 92 00:09:46,820 --> 00:09:52,730 human rights and political wishes of Serbs in northern Kosovo and other enclaves of Kosovo. 93 00:09:54,470 --> 00:09:59,570 Inclusion in this case, in Ukraine's case, requires consideration and in. 94 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:08,870 Ideally consultation, if not inclusion of those living in in occupied territories in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. 95 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:13,860 The Tatars are a significant minority who have been oppressed during the years of Russian occupation. 96 00:10:14,460 --> 00:10:17,700 Their hostility to Russia and occupation is clear. 97 00:10:18,420 --> 00:10:23,790 Likewise, perhaps the 25% or so of the population who identify as Ukrainian. 98 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:33,840 But this is the easiest of guesses. There is more, moreover, no evidence that the majority of the population wishes to live under Russian sovereignty. 99 00:10:34,230 --> 00:10:41,610 Even if they're Russian, even if their mother tongue might be Russian, the wishes of this population should be taken into account. 100 00:10:42,150 --> 00:10:47,639 A black or white determination in any peace deal of Russian or less likely Ukrainian 101 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:53,010 sovereignty clearly would not do justice to the ethnic and political diversity of the region. 102 00:10:53,490 --> 00:10:58,660 Although such an outcome, alas, is all too likely in the Donbass. 103 00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:06,209 In 2014, the pro-Russian unrest that followed the Maidan revolution and the declaration of the Donetsk and Lugansk 104 00:11:06,210 --> 00:11:12,630 independent republics led directly to armed conflict between the separatists and Ukrainian government forces, 105 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,820 which in turn triggered the inclusion of Russian forces into Ukrainian territory. 106 00:11:18,420 --> 00:11:23,340 It is, of course, a complicated historical picture which I cannot in a short time do justice to. 107 00:11:23,850 --> 00:11:30,150 But these events with the direct anti-Semitic antecedents of the conflict that we see today, today. 108 00:11:30,420 --> 00:11:33,420 Popular sentiment in the Donbass region is a mystery. 109 00:11:33,900 --> 00:11:42,720 Referendums under occupation, which pointed towards separation of the Eastern territories, are neither legitimate nor meaningfully indicative, 110 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:49,350 especially when a large proportion of the population, mostly the pro-Ukrainian portion, has been displaced. 111 00:11:50,220 --> 00:11:55,080 There is almost no reporting, at least in the West, from these areas during the current conflict. 112 00:11:55,710 --> 00:12:01,260 The most recent census identifying the ethnicity of the population of Donetsk and Lugansk took place 113 00:12:01,260 --> 00:12:07,950 over 20 years ago and before the massive displacements that the Russian occupation and ethnicity is, 114 00:12:07,950 --> 00:12:11,430 in any case, a poor indicator of true political preference. 115 00:12:11,970 --> 00:12:21,720 The wishes of the local population are a cipher. Any peace deal will will require a re examination of the Minsk agreements, 116 00:12:22,020 --> 00:12:28,380 which included a degree of autonomy for the Donbass regions within the united Ukraine, within its sovereign borders. 117 00:12:29,010 --> 00:12:35,220 But a prerequisite will be some kind of democratic process so that the true wishes of the affected population, 118 00:12:35,550 --> 00:12:39,570 including the many displaced during the years of occupation, can be determined. 119 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:45,660 It is wrong to determine the status of any territory without consultation of the people concerned. 120 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:50,100 This is an error all too often made in the rush to conclude a peace deal. 121 00:12:50,730 --> 00:12:59,370 The continued tensions in Bosnia and Kosovo are in part a result of territorial parcelling out that was performed as a result of peace. 122 00:12:59,370 --> 00:13:08,340 Deals with the democratic wishes of the local populations was set to one side in favour of a crude, ethnically based territorial division. 123 00:13:09,510 --> 00:13:12,570 But without such, there will be no long term stability. 124 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:21,480 The failure to implement the Minsk agreements with one precursor to the current conflict, though nothing can excuse Putin's shameless aggression. 125 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:30,270 These populations in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are and are invisible in the current discourse around the war and possible peace. 126 00:13:30,630 --> 00:13:34,680 They should not remain so. How should they be included? 127 00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:40,920 Regrettably, subject populations do not in this world yet have the same status as state governments. 128 00:13:41,340 --> 00:13:45,270 States seeking others like themselves. Preference and a firm. 129 00:13:45,270 --> 00:13:50,280 Other states legitimising the very world that gave rise to monsters like Vladimir Putin. 130 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:56,760 So. So it will be states sitting at the table regardless of the views of their populations. 131 00:13:57,270 --> 00:14:03,690 At least one is democratic. Though Kiev cannot claim to represent the wishes of populations from eastern Ukraine. 132 00:14:04,650 --> 00:14:08,610 But outsiders like how should insist that the different minorities who whose 133 00:14:08,610 --> 00:14:13,080 futures are at play should be consulted if not represented in these talks. 134 00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:19,680 We should also insist that some mechanism needs to be agreed so that their voices are allowed to determine their future. 135 00:14:20,340 --> 00:14:25,680 What would such a mechanism be? Obviously it needs to be a democratic process of some kind. 136 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:35,490 Equally obviously, elections or referendums are not going to be possible in situations of conflict or the immediate post-conflict conflict period. 137 00:14:36,090 --> 00:14:39,960 Populations are displaced and under severe political and economic stress. 138 00:14:40,500 --> 00:14:43,890 Exercises in democracy must await more stable times. 139 00:14:44,430 --> 00:14:51,540 But this does not mean they are impossible. It's conceivable to imagine a peace agreement which contains provisions for the democratic 140 00:14:51,540 --> 00:14:56,580 consultation of populations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine on their future status. 141 00:14:57,180 --> 00:15:03,290 Unfortunately, with the current status quo of the. These populations will likely remain under Russian occupation. 142 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:09,620 Russia is extremely unlikely to allow refugees to return if they are Ukrainian and is 143 00:15:09,620 --> 00:15:14,750 extremely unlikely to allow a meaningful and fair vote on the future status of these regions. 144 00:15:15,770 --> 00:15:23,780 Instead, outside states such as the EU should propose that more creative ideas are on the table for the future of Ukraine overall. 145 00:15:24,350 --> 00:15:30,950 Is a federal or confederal state out of the question? Surely this would be a harder proposition for Russia to claim. 146 00:15:31,340 --> 00:15:37,850 The Russian speaking populations were marginalised, undermining Putin's sole argument for continued occupation. 147 00:15:38,450 --> 00:15:42,740 It would also provide a framework for lasting political stability in Ukraine. 148 00:15:43,940 --> 00:15:50,659 In contrast, the sort of territorial carving up that pundits talk about as a potential solution or compromise 149 00:15:50,660 --> 00:15:56,360 between Ukraine and Russia would not solve these deeper issues of self-determination, 150 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:04,790 political choice and belonging. Ukraine claims all the territory that Russia has occupied since 2014, but to do so credibly, 151 00:16:04,790 --> 00:16:14,150 it must offer some answer to what will happen to those who do not wish to remain Ukrainian, of whom there is undoubtedly a significant population. 152 00:16:15,380 --> 00:16:22,730 It is striking that in Zelensky's otherwise impressively detailed ten point peace plan, there is no mention of this aspect, 153 00:16:23,180 --> 00:16:28,310 which is certainly one political conflict controversy that any peace settlement will have to address. 154 00:16:28,970 --> 00:16:36,200 Zelensky is no doubt aware of this. It does not fit easily into his demand for the complete restitution of Ukrainian territory. 155 00:16:36,770 --> 00:16:46,850 But privately there must be some consideration in Kiev of what kind of compromise, such as limited autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk or confederation. 156 00:16:47,150 --> 00:16:53,720 Ukraine might be prepared to accept, if indeed it does secure control of all of Ukraine's sovereign territory. 157 00:16:54,560 --> 00:17:01,090 Perhaps this is already being discussed privately among the supporters of Ukraine, but I fear this is not the case. 158 00:17:01,100 --> 00:17:07,280 While the discourse of territorial division and the all or nothing rhetoric of both sides continues to dominate. 159 00:17:08,180 --> 00:17:15,590 It is arguably time to start introducing these important elements into the discussion of what a peace agreement might consist of. 160 00:17:16,220 --> 00:17:24,200 Right now, according to polls, Ukrainians are understandably committed to the narrative of complete control of all of Ukraine's territory. 161 00:17:24,890 --> 00:17:34,070 But some nuance in this debate will be necessary if an agreed and enduring peace, rather than a temporary and unstable ceasefire, is to be possible. 162 00:17:35,390 --> 00:17:39,230 Above all, we need to support the principle in this conflict. 163 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:46,730 As for all that the most affected, those with the most at stake should be included in the discussion of the future. 164 00:17:47,540 --> 00:17:53,120 If we attend to their requirements, we are more likely to achieve a lasting and sustainable deal. 165 00:17:53,510 --> 00:17:58,490 But more than that, it is the right thing to do. No decision about us without us. 166 00:17:59,120 --> 00:17:59,570 Thank you.