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First of all, thank you very much to the OCS team.

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Um, for the invitation.

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Um, second, I'm going to say that, uh, I am so, so pleased to actually be, um, in the room and sort of on a panel and with the morning speakers.

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Uh, we're, we're kind of thinking through very similar issues from slightly different angles.

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And so, um, it's I feel like these days it's, uh, almost, uh, exception when you end up on a panel where people actually speak about the same topic.

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So, uh, congratulations to the organisers for pulling together people.

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Um, and, uh, that actually is thinking through the same, um, uh, issues.

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Um, the next thing I'm going to say is that I have an immense pleasure and I will say, uh, for an academic in particular that is,

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uh, such a privilege to be working with a group of young researchers, uh, who are all involved in this project.

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Um, and so I want to acknowledge them sort of, because there are, um, heavily contributing to, uh, sort of the way, uh, my thinking can shaped,

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uh, about this, but also in terms of how we're implementing and, and I'll try to show you some of the tools, um, that we're developing.

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So the project that I am doing, um, is kind of trying to capture peacemaking peacebuilding processes in the era of global fragmentation.

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And so it's very much kind of touching on the issues we've been discussing this morning.

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Um, and we're kind of guided by two overarching lines of inquiry, um, why,

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when and how different third party actors intervene in conflicts and how they see themselves contributing to reduction of conflict,

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um, and the risks of conflict, relapse. And, um, one of the sort of the early lessons, uh, that we got, uh,

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out of sort of commissioning sort of studies on sort of how Russia is thinking about sort of conflict management,

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how China's thinking about conflict management. Qatar, Turkey.

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Uh, so these would have been studies in sort of 2020 was exactly that.

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Some of the vocabulary that we're using is completely useless when you go into other contexts.

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Um, and so it's basically trying to figure out even what are the words, uh,

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that we are looking for when thinking about sort of conflict management in general,

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but sort of what are kind of the priorities that are thrust in order, justice development, what is kind of thought of these, um, logics?

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So that's one of the things that we're trying to look at,

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sort of how the interveners themselves are thinking about it, how they're kind of approaching it.

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Um, and then the other question that we're kind of trying to explore in parallel is how are let's call them local actors navigating, um,

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this multiplicity of mediators, peace builders, uh, investors, uh, and so on and so forth,

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and how this is shaping the conflict outcomes in post-conflict governance.

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And so in this line of inquiry, we're looking, uh, both in sort of how, for example, the political elites, uh, today are able to form shop, uh,

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who is going to be the preferred mediator, who is going to be the preferred peace builder or the investor,

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which sort of 15 years ago might not have been an option.

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But we're also looking at sort of how the civil society is impacted in sort of, uh,

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through this processes, when some of the political elites or belligerents are able to, um, form shop.

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So it's kind of looking at a very broad spectrum of questions.

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Um, and we're approaching it through sort of different dynamics.

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Um, so I'm not going to run you through too much in the interest of time on sort of what we know in terms of the research.

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Um, because we've had a bit of a discussion about this already,

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but essentially it's not going to come as a surprise to this room that peace mediation processes,

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peacebuilding, conflict management, conflict resolution, whatever word you want to choose, um, is fundamentally changing.

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And this has been kind of the change that we are seeing over the last decade.

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Um, it's been growing and increasing and accelerating. Um, so the interesting aspect of it and a Roger, um, in the morning, very, uh, nicely put out.

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We have so much peace architecture. Right. So there's so many international organisations working on it.

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But in a lot of ways we're seeing is that's the less influential in a lot of these contexts that it might be the geopolitics, uh, driving it.

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We see kind of multiple disconnected efforts.

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Sudan example, uh, which we've seen is going to it was talking about uh, this morning but also yesterday.

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The discussion shows how essentially we have multiple parallel processes running, uh, in sort of trying to address single conflicts.

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Um, and basically because of that, we're probably getting less comprehensive, um, agreements.

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Um, there's kind of more conflict management. There's a lot of actors interested in sort of some reduction of the conflict,

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potentially for investments like the way that we're thinking about China before, um, and this kind of less conflict resolution.

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So this idea that the complex or just protracted,

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the other thing that we know is that the actors and I'm going to you're going to see that I'm very uncomfortable with the vocabulary that we're,

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uh, adopting. In all of these authors, we call them non-Western, emerging new, um, sort of a lot of things, um, guilty of contributing to these, uh,

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debates and labelling is but essentially these actors are introducing something different to conflict with the conflict management.

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Um, and then the last thing I'm going to stress, because I think this is important for the way I've been, um,

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sort of conceptualising some of the discussions about contemporary conflict management is

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that increasingly we're seeing third parties who are actually involved as peacemakers,

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peace builders. They're actually often also conflict parties.

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Um, so it's very difficult to draw a line on sort of parties, sort of supplying weapons,

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but at the same time trying to mediate the conflict between parties.

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So we're seeing there's there's bit of a changing, uh, landscape to it.

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And so the way I've started thinking about the conflict management today is that essentially that's kind of three aspects of,

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um, that at least in my mind, we need to understand much, much better.

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Um, and this is sort of something that my team has been kind of looking at.

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On one hand, uh, we're seeing an increasing diversification of approaches, uh,

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with the we're kind of beyond that idea of now that liberal peacebuilding was ever a unified approach, but it had some logic, uh, in it.

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So we're seeing sort of increasingly diverse logics of peacemaking, conflict management coming into, uh, the field today.

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The second thing that we're seeing, and this is not equal across all of the, um, uh, across different sort of conflict sites, uh, but in a,

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in more and more states is we're seeing a congestion of efforts,

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parallel efforts running in parallel with less efforts to kind of bring them together under one architecture.

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And that is resulting in kind of delayed solutions. Um, so Roger was mentioning this morning, for example, much, much more local peace agreements.

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Uh, uh, now in relation to sort of a lot of the conflict sort of management of sort of partial solution,

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uh, instead of sort of looking for comprehensive agreements.

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So what I'm going to talk about, uh, today, uh, and sort of what we are doing in sort of the project, it's, it's,

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uh, multiple people, uh, involved and multiple authors, um, of, um, sort of different boards that we're writing.

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So on one hand, we're kind of producing, trying to produce dedicated case studies as part of our, uh, Global transition, uh, series.

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And so these studies have looked at sort of how, for example, Qatar is approaching,

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how Turkey is approaching conflict management sort of more generally,

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how what the philosophy is that they're doing, but it also sort of much more specific cases,

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for example, how China is engaging with the liberal peace process in Bosnia.

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Right? So it's like looking at sort of, um, very dedicated, um, studies.

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But the exciting thing, at least the exciting thing for me, um,

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at the moment is that in addition to sort of much more kind of granular, uh, cases that we're looking at and producing,

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sort of which are kind of growing and growing, we're now trying to kind of develop two complementary data sets,

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which will allow us to compare, um, uh, sort of, uh, the trends and explore trends much more systematically.

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So the two data sets, I'm going to speak about one of them in particular today, because there's some fun visualisations, uh, involved.

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Uh, and those have been developed already are the third parties and peace agreements.

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So and particularly we're relying on the Pax data set, which is at the out of our university.

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And we have extrapolated, uh, essentially from the 1992.

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The last data that we have is for 2023, um, is essentially looking at somebody who is actually signing peace agreements.

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Right. So who are the third parties, international actors signing?

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Because based on that, we're actually able to see sort of the diverse approaches of third parties.

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We're actually I'm going to walk you through some of the comparison between Russia and China, uh, today.

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But essentially we're able to see the diversity that we often, um, sort of, uh, sort of brush aside the other,

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uh, data set that we're developing and this is a much more comprehensive and much deeper,

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uh, data set is looking at mediation and looking at much more sort of granular mediation events,

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uh, which is going to allow us to explore those two other aspects.

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I was talking about congestion at Layer Rank. Um, and just to sort of for those of you that have much more in the data, uh, in the room, for example,

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the third party is in peace agreements because the peace agreements have become such a, such a priority, uh, in recent years.

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This, for example, has five peace agreements related to Sudan in 2022 and 2023.

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Those are mostly ceasefires, right? So they're not anything sort of big.

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But through the mediation data set, we've identified over 300 different mediation, uh,

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initiatives, uh, by third parties, which will allow us to kind of look at a bit more granular.

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What is actually happening. Uh, in mediation data field.

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But what I'm going to talk about today is a diversification, because I think this is one of the most important thing, uh,

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to kind of wrap our heads around, uh, as both scholars, but as also as people who are interested in finding productive ways of engaging, um, actors.

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We usually don't engage. Um, and so in general, we tend to think, I'm going to say we tend to think as academics.

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Uh, but it's also my experience that a lot of the policymakers, especially at the governmental level, will tend to think of, uh,

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sort of interveners in a very kind of dichotomous way,

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sort of Western versus non-Western liberal versus a liberal, the old way smoulders, um, versus the new voters.

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Right. So that's the way we tend to think about it. And we do actually have quite good research in sort of international relations

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as a discipline that is kind of trying to pull together what might be kind of,

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uh, differentiating, um, aspects between, um, the two groups.

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Right. So there's a lot there's a lot of discussion and a particularly discussion between sort of liberal and chorley's, uh,

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approach and sort of the idea of how important is to go through state institutions, sort of like norms of non-intervention.

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Right? So if we think about it, how we write about global governance, it's the permanent three sort of France, UK, US versus Russia and China.

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Um, so the idea is that it's about norms of non intervention.

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Right. That's differentiated too.

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And then sort of related to that and sort of how important is accountability accountability participatory processes and governance.

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Right. So who do you need to include um as part of peace processes.

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Who do you send money through. Uh, sort of all of those, uh, issues seem to be sort of the discussion about that.

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There's a big differentiation between the West and the US.

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Um, and then the last one which has come, uh, very that's a substantial it makes a substantive difference that has been identified,

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um, in research is to what extent is development prior to democracy or the other way around?

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So not enough second guess. I'm going to basically not contribute it to these debates.

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I'm going to say that we need to move beyond this, uh, because one of the things that we are trying to actually do in, uh,

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this project is to kind of show how dangerous it is to think of West versus non-Western Western actors and how dangerous it is to actually,

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uh, sort of have these sort of hands when engaging in these projects.

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So obviously, conceptually, this is, uh, morally problematic.

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We don't live in a bipolar world. Actors don't have a choice between one or the other.

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Um, and so the idea is that it's actually very bad for our theorising of sort of the contemporary conflict management.

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Um, and you will see. So I encourage you to kind of look at some of the, uh, discussions of sort of in sort of top international relations journals,

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but it will be guilty of this is like because we need to generalise, uh, things.

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And so the idea is that we're still constructing the idea of a bipolar world.

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But I think more important, especially because I'm speaking with some of you in the room,

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like a lot of us care about this, a lot of us, uh, are sort of practitioners, uh, in some way back in heart.

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It's actually practically also problematic, uh, in particularly because by thinking through the world, through this bipolar dichotomy,

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uh, lens, we kind of this entry points for collaboration with these new actors, new entrants, uh, things that act.

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And this is crucial in an era. Just think of sort of the peace processes that are even on the international agenda today.

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Is many of these processes mediation peaceful because he's building, uh, sort of efforts are not spearheaded by the so-called Western actors anymore.

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And so it does matter that you understand sort of the granularity of working with Turkey in Ukraine,

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working with Egypt in Gaza, do working with African actors, or saw this in sort of Sudan and so inconsistent.

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And so what I wanted to show I, I think, uh, I will I won't speak too much of it, but I think it's an exciting tool,

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um, that we've been developing is exactly kind of trying to compare sort of China.

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Okay. So this work. Oh, well.

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After defending your. Do something about.

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Somebody might actually help me. How about us? Uh, working on it.

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Oh, we should work. Uh, it's kind of looking at some of the, uh, comparisons between the the full version of the clean version.

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Uh, how, um, sort of how different, uh, the two actors that we very commonly put in just in one basket as Russia and China,

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um, uh, are actually engaging in peace. Uh, agreement.

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I'm just going to select Russia first, just because I think it's, uh, it's a lot more.

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There's a lot more to show. Primarily because Russia is a signatory to much more, uh, peace agreements.

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But and you can actually see the trends, uh, sort of separately on the, uh, to it.

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So the interesting aspect, I'll just kind of very quickly let's see how the visualisation goes through,

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uh, is that the Russia is actually after the United Nations.

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So this would have been probably surprised. A lot of you is the second most prolific signatory of peace agreements.

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So it sits at the table when peace agreements are signed.

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So this it actually beats the United States, beats European Union, beats African Union in terms of the number of peace agreements signed.

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So this is not going to be slightly less surprising when I tell you that the

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reason why that's the case is that because it signs mostly peace agreements.

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And so the former Soviet Union. So those are the white dots, uh, here.

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So it's very much a regional, uh, sort of actors. It's how it's kind of acts as a guarantor, uh, in its neighbourhood.

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Um, however, what we also been noticing, and this is something that I think it's, it's kind of interesting to see, is that while in sort of the 1990s,

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most of the peace agreements that were signed were in the former Soviet Union, and those continue being on is since around 2013 or so.

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So with Vladimir Putin is a lot of the agreements.

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And these are the white dots here relate to the international internationalised

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conflicts where Russia has actually kind of supporting one of the parties.

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So in Libya and Syria, Central African Republic.

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And so that kind of reflects a tiny bit sort of the interests of Russia as a sort of as a peacemaker, let's call it a peacemaker.

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Uh, be generous and, uh, to it. And so the interesting thing is I'm going to quickly skip through this,

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is that in some of the years, Russia actually signed some more agreements that United Nations.

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Uh, so United Nations tends to be at the table at the end just signing things.

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I'm not saying that they're most influential, but they do tend to cite some things, uh, to it.

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And this well, sort of we would kind of expect that sort of active Break-Up of Soviet Union.

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That would be the trend.

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The interesting thing that is also happening is that there's kind of a couple of recent years where Russia has actually signed more,

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has been much more active in signing peace agreements with the United Nations.

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So we are seeing some of the, the, the sort of the trends.

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But what is interesting to me, I'll skip this one, is that while overall and so this is one of the graphs that, uh, it requires a tiny bit, um,

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of explanation, while overall, um, around 30% of agreements that are in our database are kind of pre negotiation and 18% ceasefire agreements.

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Um, the reason why I'm pointing this this out is that what is interesting is that Russia tends to kind of sign

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more agreements that are kind of about the military aspects of the pre negotiation ceasefire agreements,

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and is far less involved in sort of comprehensive and implementation agreements compared to sort of the overall, uh, data set, uh, that we have.

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I'm pointing this out because, uh, when it gets to China, it's exactly the opposite, um, to it.

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So I'll skip through this, um, and have sort of just the geography kind of looking at it is, uh, where Russia ends up being involved.

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So we're kind of seeing two things. On one hand, Russia is involved kind of around the world because it is a permanent five member.

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And so it gets to be at the table. Uh, in the end, the reality is that most agreements that are signed are kind of in its immediate vicinity,

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um, to it, um, and sort of the internationalised conflicts that I was mentioning.

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So some of our research, again, going on China, these are all the tools that we have available now.

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Um, so, so the kind of exciting, uh, for us, uh, in terms of the, the stories that we tell.

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And if I just compare this very briefly with China and we can have a bit of discussion about this,

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especially because our colleagues at Super World spoke so much about, uh, China.

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So the first thing to notice is that when we kind of look at so, um, so China loading it is, uh,

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John, so unlike Russia, which was involved in 100 plus agreements, China is at least until 2021.

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Uh, so we don't have some of the recent agreements. Enter into this, um, visualisation app.

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Uh, China is actually involved in much less, uh, peace agreements.

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So it's actually by far the least prolific actor of the permanent five as a as a signatory.

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Um. Um, in terms of frequency, it actually signs as many agreements as kind of Egypt, Kenya,

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Nigeria, sort of reflecting kind of the status, um, that we're kind of seeing it.

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But the difference is that so unlike sort of Russia, who gets involved primarily through sort of, um, through, um,

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sort of in mediation efforts in sort of its immediate vicinity and it conflicts and it's actually militarily involved.

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China is primarily involved in, um,

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peace agreements have kind of resolved all the major international conflict conferences that are result of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

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Sort of conflicts such as Cambodia, Bosnia, um, Libya, sort of these big peace conferences.

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Um, so it tends to sign these. So the only kind of international conference that China has not gotten involved.

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Um, that other P-5 would have been involved have been conflicts in relation between Israel and Palestine.

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So that's the only kind of big exception.

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And so the interesting thing is that most agreements that China has signed, and so this kind of shows you the entry points of collaboration.

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And non collaboration actually includes either the UN or all other permanent five.

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All right. So all of the white bubbles. So the the the purple bubbles that are primarily regions of their conflicts in Myanmar.

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And some of them uh, just don't include, uh, France.

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Uh, and that's something for everybody else. Uh, but France in the South Sudan conflicts, for example, would be some of those.

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Um, but so I already pre uh, uh, kind of highlighted this before, but I think for me,

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the probably the most different difference in the approach that we're seeing in sort of the last 30 plus years between,

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uh, China and Russia, is this, this is for example, the um, the, uh, the big kind of the difference, uh, in it is that China primarily.

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So the why 32% here is China formally gets involved in implementation status of agreements.

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I mean, so one of the examples.

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So for example, for example, if you think about how, um, the Saudi Arabian deal was written about in sort of the Western media,

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um, you know, sort of taking this place in the United States as a big actor, uh, in the Middle East.

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One of the interesting aspects of this is that, uh, China came in at kind of the last stage.

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While most of the details of that, um, deal were actually negotiated, negotiated by Iraq, uh, and Oman.

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Right.

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So in a lot of ways, one of the things that we're seeing so this is not, uh, represented in this, um, and these, uh, kind of graphs that we have.

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But one of the things that we are seeing is that China, unlike Russia, puts a really great premium on having the neighbouring states involved,

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um, in the peace agreements, sort of like making sure that the initiatives are regionally.

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Right. So I say this not not to kind of say that, uh, this, this kind of data can give us, um, complete answers and sort of in particular,

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it can't sort of highlight, um, sort of what are the strategies of the two states, uh, or other states are changing,

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but I think it does highlight to us quite a lot on similarities and differences,

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and it highlights kind of the dangers of looking at sort of the I'm going to,

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again, use, uh, the dreaded words of non-Western actors as kind of the block that is on the other side that we need to negotiate.

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And it does show us that it is actually dangerous to say, um,

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kind of put everybody in one basket because this kind of closes the opportunities for cooperation.

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And I will try to end on that semi positive. Uh.