1 00:00:00,630 --> 00:00:04,470 Well, I want to talk today about about migration, 2 00:00:04,470 --> 00:00:11,860 it tends to be rather a neglected area in demography for reasons which I'll describe and expand on later on, 3 00:00:11,860 --> 00:00:19,650 it is becoming really very important as the major factor in population dynamics in rich countries. 4 00:00:19,650 --> 00:00:27,660 And this is something relatively new and to which demographers perhaps haven't properly adapted themselves yet. 5 00:00:27,660 --> 00:00:34,830 So what I want to talk about is migration in the broader context of demographic thought and demographic analysis, 6 00:00:34,830 --> 00:00:41,010 the importance of migration or the non importance of migration in population change and various other things. 7 00:00:41,010 --> 00:00:44,940 The difficulties of migration theory, which are great. 8 00:00:44,940 --> 00:00:50,880 You may think that fertility on migration is confused and indecisive. 9 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:58,800 Wait till you hear about migration theory and then you will think that fertility analysis is really quite straightforward. 10 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:06,360 I want to also descriptively about the process and diversity of migration in the modern world and the volume of migration. 11 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:10,270 Just to give us an idea about its magnitude, its trend, where it comes from, 12 00:01:10,270 --> 00:01:13,740 where it might be going in the future to talk about also its consequences, 13 00:01:13,740 --> 00:01:18,900 demographic, economic and ethnic, which is an awful lot to get through in 50 minutes. 14 00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:26,490 So I better get cracking without further ado, one of the first difficulties I'm sorry to begin with difficulties, 15 00:01:26,490 --> 00:01:30,600 but it's important to have to give some health warnings about migration. 16 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:35,670 One of the great difficulties is the data on the whole and generally speaking, the developed world. 17 00:01:35,670 --> 00:01:39,990 Anyway, data on births and deaths are pretty good. 18 00:01:39,990 --> 00:01:41,850 Very, very high coverage, 19 00:01:41,850 --> 00:01:49,590 ninety nine point seven percent coverage of births and deaths usually connected with all sorts of fairly reliable information about about data, 20 00:01:49,590 --> 00:01:54,210 location, age, mother. Circumstances of that kind with migration is different. 21 00:01:54,210 --> 00:01:57,880 And that's because migration is so much a more complicated business. 22 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:05,790 It's not just the the convenient ones for all biological beginning points and end points of getting born and dying, which everyone really does wants. 23 00:02:05,790 --> 00:02:11,400 Well, with one or two exceptions, perhaps over migration, it's quite different to migration. 24 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,840 You do it many times. It happens at enormous volume. 25 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:20,820 There are over 100 million passenger movements into and out of the UK every year 26 00:02:20,820 --> 00:02:24,940 over which some proportion are migrants in the demographic sense of the word. 27 00:02:24,940 --> 00:02:30,870 But the great majority are not sifting out the ones of demographic interests, those who are coming for a long time, 28 00:02:30,870 --> 00:02:36,810 intending to stay for a long time, those who are leaving for a long time and seem to be away for a long time is very difficult. 29 00:02:36,810 --> 00:02:39,600 And this is true of all countries in the world. 30 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:47,060 And of course, people also fundamentally only get born and die for other specific reasons for migration. 31 00:02:47,060 --> 00:02:53,940 There's a whole range of reasons why people move from all sorts of different places and different places where they go to as well. 32 00:02:53,940 --> 00:03:00,710 So it's a much more heterogeneous process than the firm by the beginning and end points of birth and death, 33 00:03:00,710 --> 00:03:09,210 which demographers tend to feel rather more at home. So first of all, some some moans about data, as you see here. 34 00:03:09,210 --> 00:03:15,630 First of all, as I tried to expand briefly a few seconds ago, it is rather a fuzzy category, ill defined variable, 35 00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:23,460 but present an enormous volume, the data on migration, although attempts are being made to harmonise them via the European Union, 36 00:03:23,460 --> 00:03:29,280 via various international conferences organised by the United Nations and other bodies, 37 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:35,940 the definition of migration and the way that it's counted soon depends very much upon national legal procedures. 38 00:03:35,940 --> 00:03:43,830 Migration in and out of a country in the long term is a process which most countries governed by means of laws with varying degrees, 39 00:03:43,830 --> 00:03:46,800 of course, of reliability and precision. 40 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:53,550 Those laws differ between countries because countries have different views about the place of migration in their national life, 41 00:03:53,550 --> 00:03:55,300 in their economy and all the rest. 42 00:03:55,300 --> 00:04:02,460 Some try to restrict it, some try to encourage it, at least in respect of particular kinds of streams and particular kinds of people. 43 00:04:02,460 --> 00:04:10,230 This generates lots and lots and lots of different international national rather laws about who may enter, 44 00:04:10,230 --> 00:04:15,870 who, who may leave, even under what circumstances they may stay. Harmonising these data has not been easy. 45 00:04:15,870 --> 00:04:19,680 It is getting better, but it's still very far from being perfect. 46 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:30,120 I mentioned that the the process of migration were were very few people enter or leave a whole lot of reasons for for labour as asylum seekers, 47 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:36,240 as spouses, as children, as dependents of students, all sorts of reasons for leaving and coming. 48 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:44,790 And these are not necessarily correlated with each other. Two particular examples. 49 00:04:44,790 --> 00:04:52,320 The first thing is when you see migration data presented to you in neat tables by Eurostat or some other body, 50 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:56,910 these migration data are usually not actually migration data at all. 51 00:04:56,910 --> 00:05:03,840 They are not, for the most part, people being counted in or counting out as they enter or leave the borders of the country concerned. 52 00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:12,900 For the most part, they are derived from population registers of the kind which are common in continental Europe and and do not exist in Britain. 53 00:05:12,900 --> 00:05:19,740 And the migration is derived from a comparison of the register of foreigners in one year and the register of foreigners in the 54 00:05:19,740 --> 00:05:26,070 other year in the belief and assumption that those who enter the country legally will register on the foreigners register, 55 00:05:26,070 --> 00:05:31,170 those who leave will register. The difference is going to be net migration. 56 00:05:31,170 --> 00:05:36,990 There are also direct accounts of those coming in, those being given legal leave to enter. 57 00:05:36,990 --> 00:05:42,660 The trouble is that most countries don't restrict immigration. The communist countries did until 1989. 58 00:05:42,660 --> 00:05:47,010 Certain other authoritarian dictatorships forbid their citizens leave. 59 00:05:47,010 --> 00:05:51,450 Most free democratic countries do not forbid anyone to leave except criminals. 60 00:05:51,450 --> 00:05:57,270 And therefore county in this is done accurately according to laws about admission and settlement. 61 00:05:57,270 --> 00:06:03,600 Counting out tends to be very much more feeble. So therefore we have gross inflows based on counts. 62 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:10,530 We have net flows based upon comparison of registered data and of course for demographic purposes, it's often the net flows, 63 00:06:10,530 --> 00:06:13,470 the difference between people coming in and people going out, 64 00:06:13,470 --> 00:06:18,330 which has the effect of on population, size, population, age, structure and also on the economy. 65 00:06:18,330 --> 00:06:23,180 Is that what you're most interested in and that which we tend to have, at least of all? 66 00:06:23,180 --> 00:06:27,910 Secondly, if one's looking not the flow of migrants, 67 00:06:27,910 --> 00:06:34,400 that the so-called stock I don't like using that no name is wrong suggests that one to engage in the grocery trade. 68 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,710 But that is that is the term of art in migration. 69 00:06:36,710 --> 00:06:44,360 The stock of migrants is the number of people of migrant origin, born overseas, living in a country a particular time estimating that which of course, 70 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:51,530 is also important as well as the flow is difficult because of the process of naturalisation. 71 00:06:51,530 --> 00:06:57,420 Generally speaking, countries are interested in counting foreigners rather than immigrants in terms of their population. 72 00:06:57,420 --> 00:07:06,560 That is to say that those who are non-citizens compared with those who are citizens, irrespective of where they were born in the past, naturalisation, 73 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:12,350 the accusations of citizenship by migrants tended to be a rather slow process and 74 00:07:12,350 --> 00:07:17,720 was a consequence of having been settled peacefully in a country for many years. 75 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:23,420 Having adapted to that country, speaking its language, understanding its laws and so on are not a very easy process, 76 00:07:23,420 --> 00:07:32,180 particularly in the German speaking countries where the sanguinis was the principle and where it was possibly born in that country of foreign parents, 77 00:07:32,180 --> 00:07:38,760 but not be a citizen because the Suli, the right of citizenship arising out of birthplace, did not apply. 78 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:43,670 That is changing. But it has meant that there been some some that some alteration about the 79 00:07:43,670 --> 00:07:48,530 relationship between migration on the one hand and foreign citizenship on the other. 80 00:07:48,530 --> 00:07:54,830 More recently, naturalisation. The granting of citizenship has been used as a kind of not, as it were, 81 00:07:54,830 --> 00:07:58,910 as a reward for integration, as a means to integration has been greatly accelerated. 82 00:07:58,910 --> 00:08:03,590 What this tends to mean is that in some countries, the pace of naturalisation has been so great. 83 00:08:03,590 --> 00:08:10,010 That is about the same as the pace of migration. So even though the number of migrants entering the country each year may be very great, 84 00:08:10,010 --> 00:08:16,480 the total stock of foreigners remains constant because so many of the migrants are naturalised very rapidly. 85 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,160 You may feel this is a perfectly right and proper thing to do, 86 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:26,960 but it does mean there's a growing mismatch between estimates of the number of of a foreign population, 87 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:33,950 foreign origin, population based upon citizenship on the one hand, and estimates of that based upon migration on the other. 88 00:08:33,950 --> 00:08:39,080 Here's a not untypical case from the Netherlands. 89 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,860 In the Netherlands, which has a population register, like so many continental countries, 90 00:08:42,860 --> 00:08:49,340 it's possible to work out from the register where people were born and where their parents were born. 91 00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:54,800 Those who say, well, they are immigrants or the children of immigrants as well as whether they are citizens or not. 92 00:08:54,800 --> 00:09:02,360 The orange line at the bottom is the data normally cited when you look up Eurostat fault for foreign population, 93 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,970 and that's often taken to be the same as immigrant population. 94 00:09:04,970 --> 00:09:15,810 As you see, the foreign population in the Netherlands has been hovering around 600000 ever since about 1992 or so and is not showing any upward trend. 95 00:09:15,810 --> 00:09:22,710 If you look at the number of people born abroad, which is first, which is the red line, you will see, 96 00:09:22,710 --> 00:09:27,120 in fact, it's been increasing constantly, but lots and lots of them have been naturalised. 97 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:32,160 The foreign population in the Netherlands is about one point six million, not 600000. 98 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,730 If you look at the foreign origin population, that is to say, the population, 99 00:09:35,730 --> 00:09:42,240 which which the Dutch categorised on the basis of of the background of parents as well as the immigrants, then this is the total here. 100 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:48,010 It's about three point four million, and that's out of a population of 70 million people. 101 00:09:48,010 --> 00:09:51,930 So it's a very substantial proportion of the total, about 20 percent. 102 00:09:51,930 --> 00:10:02,520 And this is not an indication of the number of people of foreign birth or foreign origin in the Netherlands or in Sweden or in France or in Britain. 103 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:08,670 Very important to realise that the Syrians of migration has varied hugely over the course of time. 104 00:10:08,670 --> 00:10:16,410 In the beginning, we have all migrants, migrants in the short term and migrants in the long term, because, of course, until about 10000 years ago, 105 00:10:16,410 --> 00:10:24,930 all our ancestors were hunters and gatherers who had no fixed abode, fixed broad territory for sure, over which they would tend to wander, 106 00:10:24,930 --> 00:10:31,770 no settled home because hunters and gatherers, with very, very few exceptions, as you will know very well from anthropology, 107 00:10:31,770 --> 00:10:36,510 tend to exhaust the resources of the local area within a week or two weeks or a month, 108 00:10:36,510 --> 00:10:42,600 then move on somewhere else within a very, very wide area, eventually coming back to that first place. 109 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:49,770 Once, once game, once routes, once berries have had a chance of regenerate in one, two or many years later on. 110 00:10:49,770 --> 00:10:56,760 So migration is an essential survival strategy, not only for all human populations over the greater part of our existence, 111 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:00,660 but also, of course, as a survival strategy for most animal populations. 112 00:11:00,660 --> 00:11:02,970 Animals migrate about. 113 00:11:02,970 --> 00:11:12,930 Sometimes the migrations are well known in animals from point of view of moving to Africa for the for the winter, as Swifts and swallows do. 114 00:11:12,930 --> 00:11:16,530 Otherwise, it's much more localised, but it is normal. 115 00:11:16,530 --> 00:11:25,470 Migration is a normal state of affairs for early humans and for and for animals and other slightly different kind of migration, 116 00:11:25,470 --> 00:11:31,710 which has been of enormous importance, is a kind of once for all colonisation, invasion, migration, 117 00:11:31,710 --> 00:11:38,640 whereby the world is populated by human beings, starting, as we all know, out of Africa in two waves, 118 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:46,080 one of whom erectus, one of whom are a lot, as it were, and then succeeded by other kinds of colonisation later on, 119 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:53,280 which I will which I will point to large scale movements of people of all kinds of ones for all kind well, 120 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:59,190 intermittently characteristic of human history, and dominated it to some extent, right until the 15th century, 121 00:11:59,190 --> 00:12:02,880 something which is now more or less not seen anywhere in the world, 122 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:07,500 but this so-called folklore of underarm period which extended up to the 15th century, 123 00:12:07,500 --> 00:12:11,760 if you include the Mongols and the Turks, was powerful in changing cultures. 124 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,270 And also the origins of population were huge areas of the world. 125 00:12:15,270 --> 00:12:23,910 And if you like, it continued into the 19th century. If you include in that the enormous migrations of Europeans out of Europe, into the Americas, 126 00:12:23,910 --> 00:12:32,850 into the activities and elsewhere, which still continues, which was which is primary in the 18th and 19th centuries. 127 00:12:32,850 --> 00:12:38,340 And what this leads to, of course, is globalisation, globalisation of people, globalisation of diseases, 128 00:12:38,340 --> 00:12:42,180 perhaps eventually through different processes, globalisation of culture as well. 129 00:12:42,180 --> 00:12:47,620 But globalisation is a very, very ancient process been going on for for 30000 years. 130 00:12:47,620 --> 00:12:55,320 It is not something which is new. Oh, just an example of some of our early migrant ancestors. 131 00:12:55,320 --> 00:13:00,120 This is the only, I promise you, a picture of a naked lady actually showing the entire course of lectures. 132 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:08,520 Here are some recent, more recent migrants that the Bushmen of Botswana, the Kunsan now, alas, forced to settle down and wear trousers. 133 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:13,530 But this is a picture of them in the natural hunting habitat with their family, 134 00:13:13,530 --> 00:13:21,210 while the pathetic bows which are equipped with thank goodness for them with poison tips, as I'm sure you will know this, 135 00:13:21,210 --> 00:13:28,020 is that the conventional diagram of this great colonisation of the world population out of Africa starting perhaps 100000 years ago, 136 00:13:28,020 --> 00:13:31,470 extending to various different parts of the world at different points in time. 137 00:13:31,470 --> 00:13:38,000 The estimates of the of the time period by which this happened are, of course, subject to modern research and revision. 138 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:41,160 This is now thought to be rather older than thirteen thousand years. 139 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:49,260 That older than 20000 years are some evidence, this uncertainty about what went on in Australia, but clearly earlier than in the Americas. 140 00:13:49,260 --> 00:13:56,550 And before then, there were no Homo sapiens in those areas at all is a completely new pattern of settlement with huge consequences, 141 00:13:56,550 --> 00:14:01,860 as we all know, for for population ecology and all the rest. 142 00:14:01,860 --> 00:14:06,930 This still, if I can add a footnote, this still leaves traces in the genes. 143 00:14:06,930 --> 00:14:16,590 You will know, I'm sure, from from Christine Capelli and others that that is still possible to trace the evidence for these settlements of Europe 144 00:14:16,590 --> 00:14:22,980 restudy over time by looking at the gene frequency distributions of contemporary modern living human populations. 145 00:14:22,980 --> 00:14:31,080 These gene frequencies are of no social importance of any kind, but they do give a shadow of the past, 146 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:43,080 showing how a population of Europe extended itself in this north westerly direction, starting from from the Middle Eastern Anatolia. 147 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:52,350 It's even possible if you if you look at the material in sufficient detail to reconstruct the map of Europe solely using this evidence. 148 00:14:52,350 --> 00:15:01,920 On the left, you see the a diagram of the the first two principal components of a of the analysis of a great deal of genetical data gathered. 149 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:08,220 Lots and lots and lots of different human populations in Europe, they're all labelled, you probably can't see this is it for Italy. 150 00:15:08,220 --> 00:15:19,140 This says yes for Spain, this says Hungary that says IIF Ireland, that's where the individual came from, from which the sample was taken. 151 00:15:19,140 --> 00:15:26,220 And this is where they're located on these two principal components solely on the basis of statistical evidence of the gene distribution. 152 00:15:26,220 --> 00:15:33,990 As you can see, it does somewhat replicate the maths. This is the same colour coding of the map itself of here in Spain in purple. 153 00:15:33,990 --> 00:15:42,240 This is where most of the Spaniards end up. Here is Ireland in red and this is where most of the Irish end up and so on. 154 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:52,010 So it's a very considerable interest from a genetic point of view, even though it doesn't have any social significance at all. 155 00:15:52,010 --> 00:15:59,750 Once upon a time, there was a European Union which extended over, as you see, much more than the present European Union, 156 00:15:59,750 --> 00:16:03,830 although if Europhiles have their way, then the European Union will, of course, 157 00:16:03,830 --> 00:16:10,130 include Turkey and the southern the northern shores of Africa and so on. 158 00:16:10,130 --> 00:16:19,040 And that is an example of something which was not so much created by migration, but by military conquest and control, 159 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:25,880 but which was disrupted by the migration processes that I'm about to talk about in the course of this lecture, 160 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:32,810 because this is the Roman Empire, around about 120 A.D. This is the Roman Empire. 161 00:16:32,810 --> 00:16:38,210 About 300 years later, the eastern part often neglected, still going strong and going strong, 162 00:16:38,210 --> 00:16:42,290 although and diminished form for another thousand years based on Constantinople, 163 00:16:42,290 --> 00:16:50,840 the western Roman Empire, fractured, fragmented, then under the control of other non Roman authorities, 164 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:58,040 deriving from populations like the Oscar aghost, the Visigoths, the Vandals and the Lombards, the fracks, 165 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:05,210 the two tons of various others carving up Europe in this way, not replacing or destroying the original populations, 166 00:17:05,210 --> 00:17:10,460 although the numbers did indeed go down, but certainly changing their culture, radically changing their population mix. 167 00:17:10,460 --> 00:17:12,800 And that certainly wasn't the end of the story. 168 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:20,450 If I were to start on that story, it would go on for a long time because this character caricaturing myself and something like 10, 169 00:17:20,450 --> 00:17:27,320 66 and all that, a lot of history at this time was indeed successive waves of people who are called barbarians. 170 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,970 Sometimes, it seems to me with some justice. 171 00:17:30,970 --> 00:17:41,980 One is that visible is one small, even smaller footnote we will excuse this doesn't wipe out local differences. 172 00:17:41,980 --> 00:17:47,470 This is a map to maps put together by Longly and his colleagues at University College 173 00:17:47,470 --> 00:17:53,530 London showing the distribution of Surname's Look up your own surnames on longlines. 174 00:17:53,530 --> 00:17:59,410 What a website and see where people live with your surname are geographically concentrated. 175 00:17:59,410 --> 00:18:06,980 This is a geographical concentration of a surname which happens to be derived from a unique place name in Lancashire. 176 00:18:06,980 --> 00:18:10,490 That place name is Ramsbottom now. 177 00:18:10,490 --> 00:18:17,360 First point here is a Ramsbottom as a place name has nothing to do with Rams and the Bottoms Rams is the old fashioned word. 178 00:18:17,360 --> 00:18:23,990 For a while, Garlick still occasionally used bottom is a word of Norse origin, meaning? 179 00:18:23,990 --> 00:18:27,980 So Ramsbottom means Valley of the wild garlic, not something more comic. 180 00:18:27,980 --> 00:18:32,660 Anyway, this is where most of the Ramsbottom were in 1881. 181 00:18:32,660 --> 00:18:38,390 And this is a surname originating probably, certainly in the early Middle Ages and possibly earlier on than that. 182 00:18:38,390 --> 00:18:41,480 These are the Ramsbottom, even in 1998. 183 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:47,870 These are the most powerful concentrations that you would find them all over the place, but still remarkably concentrated, 184 00:18:47,870 --> 00:18:53,210 although diffusing despite one and a half millennia or certainly one millennium of that place, 185 00:18:53,210 --> 00:18:56,960 name originating in one small spot somewhere around that. 186 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:04,250 So not everything gets wiped out by the process of migration in history. 187 00:19:04,250 --> 00:19:10,220 There was a time much about 30 years ago when democracy didn't pay much attention to migration, 188 00:19:10,220 --> 00:19:19,010 the illustrious journal Population Studies under the managed guardianship of the illustrious Eugene grabbing on the Hill, 189 00:19:19,010 --> 00:19:26,930 refused to take papers on migration, the sort of an unsuitable subject for demography, best left to geographers and other such folk. 190 00:19:26,930 --> 00:19:34,790 This has all changed, not the least because, of course, of the enormous importance of migration as its pattern has changed. 191 00:19:34,790 --> 00:19:36,320 This neglected two things. 192 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:42,230 First of all, it neglected the very important paper by Kingsley Davis and followed up by others, which pointed out that migration, 193 00:19:42,230 --> 00:19:49,760 as I was trying to suggest right at the beginning, was a very important element of flexible response to demographic change. 194 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:55,820 In other words, that if population started to grow in some way, which was which was causing difficulties, 195 00:19:55,820 --> 00:20:01,460 then there were three options not to not only could you die as a consequence of the population pressure, 196 00:20:01,460 --> 00:20:08,150 not only could you reduce your birth rate, which of course was the normal pattern assumed to be the case in the demographic transition, 197 00:20:08,150 --> 00:20:10,790 but also you could migrate and people often did migrate. 198 00:20:10,790 --> 00:20:20,280 And this is part of a repertoire of responses which tends to be neglected for various reasons in demographic thought and still is, I think. 199 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:26,160 Migration was relatively minor once the the great movement of peoples was over 200 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:31,570 by the 16th century between settler states at peace with each other in Europe, 201 00:20:31,570 --> 00:20:36,150 and that's one reason why it tended not to be not to be studied very much. 202 00:20:36,150 --> 00:20:39,660 What really mattered that the big actors were birthrates and death rates, 203 00:20:39,660 --> 00:20:43,890 particularly birth rates, particularly the contrast with the two in the demographic transition, 204 00:20:43,890 --> 00:20:45,180 the demographic transition, 205 00:20:45,180 --> 00:20:53,130 enormous rates of population growth are rising because of the prior decline of the death rate compared with the birth rate. 206 00:20:53,130 --> 00:20:58,950 Migration did take place almost out of Europe, not into Europe, and therefore it tends to be ignored. 207 00:20:58,950 --> 00:21:07,350 However, what the demographic transition in Europe did was in generating large numbers of much larger numbers of people than previously had existed. 208 00:21:07,350 --> 00:21:16,590 It facilitated outflows to the rest of the world. These outflows, of course, it started in 1992, but accelerated to enormous levels. 209 00:21:16,590 --> 00:21:26,880 By the end of the 18th of the 19th century, about 54 million Europeans are believed to have left Europe between 1850 and 1914 to live elsewhere. 210 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,030 A lot of them in the Americas, but also in other parts of the world as well. 211 00:21:30,030 --> 00:21:34,410 Now, of course, for every migration flow, as always, account of some of those people came back. 212 00:21:34,410 --> 00:21:37,750 We don't know how many, maybe as many as a third of those who came back. 213 00:21:37,750 --> 00:21:43,740 Some have gone back again. It wasn't absolutely fixed. Business migration is hence partly its difficulty. 214 00:21:43,740 --> 00:21:52,560 Nonetheless, an enormous outflow, which may have been rather ignored in terms of demographic analysis and interest until recent times, 215 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:58,410 have had a huge impact, of course, on the populations into which of those Europeans moved. 216 00:21:58,410 --> 00:22:05,730 Typically populations in North and South America, a much simpler culture or much less resilient culture, highly vulnerable to European diseases, 217 00:22:05,730 --> 00:22:13,500 vulnerable to European military prowess in Australia, in the North and South America, enormous population losses. 218 00:22:13,500 --> 00:22:17,490 The matter is still controversial and somewhat heated, 219 00:22:17,490 --> 00:22:24,450 but it's thought that the population of the Americas was reduced to maybe 10 percent of its previous level amongst the indigenous population, 220 00:22:24,450 --> 00:22:28,740 even though the European population was expanded very rapidly. 221 00:22:28,740 --> 00:22:35,880 So not to be ignored if you were living in that part of the world. 222 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,890 As far as theory is concerned, 223 00:22:37,890 --> 00:22:46,680 I didn't know where to start because there's a lot of it about and it would take really a couple of lectures even even to touch scratch the surface. 224 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:55,080 Probably much migration theory is quite properly devised by economists using economic considerations 225 00:22:55,080 --> 00:23:01,770 and assuming that economic pressures and economic advantages are the primary motivation of migration, 226 00:23:01,770 --> 00:23:06,070 which may well not be the case, I think it is not the case despite its importance. 227 00:23:06,070 --> 00:23:12,210 Essentially, the idea is that insofar as there is free movement or easy movement from one population to another, 228 00:23:12,210 --> 00:23:19,050 that migration will take place if wages in the receiving country are higher than wages in this country. 229 00:23:19,050 --> 00:23:28,910 If the. There is an abundance of capital in the receiving country and a shortage of capital in the sending country, 230 00:23:28,910 --> 00:23:33,520 and that migration will will will take place between the two until these things are accelerated, 231 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:40,220 where the availability of capital and the level of wages are about the same in both places under those circumstances. 232 00:23:40,220 --> 00:23:48,080 Net migration, anyway, will cease and population flows will come to an end and population change, therefore will come to an end. 233 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,630 Well, that sort of works, 234 00:23:50,630 --> 00:23:58,640 but it there are so many exceptions to it that it's it's not a very reliable guide to predicting migration or to analysing it. 235 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,760 One has to think of a number of other things that the way in which labour 236 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:06,710 markets can become segmented between jobs for immigrants and jobs for natives, 237 00:24:06,710 --> 00:24:11,030 the way in which migration can be a household financed business. 238 00:24:11,030 --> 00:24:14,770 The costs of migration are not negligible very often, 239 00:24:14,770 --> 00:24:21,080 but migration is regarded in poor countries as a kind of investment into which the whole family and other members can perhaps, 240 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:26,870 or even villages would invest money into a migrant in the expectation that we'll will send back 241 00:24:26,870 --> 00:24:32,780 remittances from the very much higher wages which you can see in the richer countries to which is moving. 242 00:24:32,780 --> 00:24:41,690 For example, on top of that, given that most large scale migration over the last several decades has been from poor countries, the rich ones. 243 00:24:41,690 --> 00:24:46,820 And given that most of those poor countries are countries of families, cultural kinship is important. 244 00:24:46,820 --> 00:24:54,800 Family size, large of household, such a complex that there is naturally a tendency once once individuals have moved from one country, 245 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:59,720 no one from poor country to a rich one from a more families country to a more 246 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:06,050 individualised country for that person to to seek to bring their relatives across, 247 00:25:06,050 --> 00:25:15,470 to marry someone of origin in that country and therefore of dependable culture and not of the different alien culture in which they move and so on. 248 00:25:15,470 --> 00:25:23,330 That generates very large volumes of continual network based chain migration, cumulative causation, 249 00:25:23,330 --> 00:25:29,990 as Doug Massey calls, who was one of the great theories of of of migration theory, 250 00:25:29,990 --> 00:25:35,720 which can which in theory can go on and on and on and on with more people arriving, 251 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,230 generating more flows and more people arriving and generating more flows. 252 00:25:39,230 --> 00:25:44,330 It does eventually, as it seems, comes to an end, but certainly hasn't come to an end so far. 253 00:25:44,330 --> 00:25:54,140 And over the last few decades, most movement into European countries has been arising out of out of dependence spouses, 254 00:25:54,140 --> 00:25:58,370 new new spouses and existing spouses, children and all the rest. 255 00:25:58,370 --> 00:26:01,580 Not so much the level of migration that was earlier on. 256 00:26:01,580 --> 00:26:14,240 And all that continues that has been added to this enormous impetus from from a chain migration arising out of family and kin connexions. 257 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:21,500 There are also other important factors which we have to keep into into consideration. 258 00:26:21,500 --> 00:26:29,300 One of the reasons, of course, why these disparities arise in the first place is because of the historically unequal pace of development and 259 00:26:29,300 --> 00:26:33,620 economic growth in different parts of the world and with population growth in different parts of the world. 260 00:26:33,620 --> 00:26:39,140 If all the world had grown rich, more or less at the same time, if the demographic transition had not taken place, 261 00:26:39,140 --> 00:26:44,180 first of all in the West and later on outside Europe and the Western countries, 262 00:26:44,180 --> 00:26:48,130 then these migration flows would have been would have been very much more modest. 263 00:26:48,130 --> 00:26:51,860 And there have been of the kind that one sees all the time between countries of roughly 264 00:26:51,860 --> 00:26:56,930 equivalent demographic characteristics and roughly equivalent economic status. 265 00:26:56,930 --> 00:27:04,280 Geographical proximity matters a lot as well. It's not just a question of you can't vanish the effects of distance. 266 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:09,470 Thus, in earlier times anyway, most European migrants into Britain came from Ireland. 267 00:27:09,470 --> 00:27:13,040 Most European migrants into Sweden came from Finland, 268 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:19,820 which is next door and was indeed part of Sweden at one time, just as Ireland was part of the UK at one time. 269 00:27:19,820 --> 00:27:25,610 These political and social connexions are very important. That's why looking rather further afield, 270 00:27:25,610 --> 00:27:30,290 migrants into into into France in recent years have tended to come from French colonies 271 00:27:30,290 --> 00:27:37,160 in Africa and from the neighbouring countries on the northern shore of of North Africa, 272 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:42,710 Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, which were once French colonies. You can think of many other examples. 273 00:27:42,710 --> 00:27:48,620 I'm sure state policy must not be ignored. Migration does not take place in a policy vacuum. 274 00:27:48,620 --> 00:27:58,310 There are all countries, almost all countries maintain controls on migration and some maintain controls on immigration as well as the. 275 00:27:58,310 --> 00:28:05,300 These are of varying effectiveness and change from time to time and rather an erratic way according to the unpredictable outcome of elections. 276 00:28:05,300 --> 00:28:11,600 For example, in Britain recently in nineteen ninety seven, 277 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:20,330 the question of migration hardly featured in the in the general election 1997 and what Mr Blair departure within two or three years, 278 00:28:20,330 --> 00:28:26,510 the Blair government to radically change the migration policy away from being restrictive one into being a much more permissive one, 279 00:28:26,510 --> 00:28:31,730 believing that economic growth and social change were beneficial would happen if migration 280 00:28:31,730 --> 00:28:35,870 could be expanded with the consequence of a very considerable increase in flows, 281 00:28:35,870 --> 00:28:45,080 which was not forecast or expected expected by anyone. And the reversal in 2010, of course, has brought the coalition government to power, 282 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:51,560 which seeks to control that migration more than was the case in the past, with what success we will see in due course. 283 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:56,600 Also very important for the post-war revolutions in transport and information and in rights, 284 00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:01,280 transport and information which created the possibility, previously non-existent, 285 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:07,280 of people moving from from South Asia, from remote parts of Africa, from all over the world into Europe, 286 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:12,860 which is previously cut off effectively by the cost of transport and the weakness of information. 287 00:29:12,860 --> 00:29:19,310 On top of that, of course, the enormous increase in consideration for human rights arising out of the horrors of the Second World War, 288 00:29:19,310 --> 00:29:25,490 which binds together countries by the through the European Court of Human Rights, which you heard about in our papers today, 289 00:29:25,490 --> 00:29:32,630 to to to undertake to respect the right of the family and various other rights of migrants, 290 00:29:32,630 --> 00:29:40,900 which is greatly restricted the powers of most European countries in what they can do with their own domestic migration policy. 291 00:29:40,900 --> 00:29:46,390 Here are some of the examples of diversity in migration. This is a graph from the OECD. 292 00:29:46,390 --> 00:29:50,920 It's 2003 is all up to date, but it shows you how diverse things can be here. 293 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,330 They have broken up gross migration flows. 294 00:29:54,330 --> 00:29:58,660 This inflow only not net flow into three major components. 295 00:29:58,660 --> 00:30:08,260 In pale blue are asylum seekers and refugees. In deep blue is family reunification and new as far as migration and pale. 296 00:30:08,260 --> 00:30:12,740 Are people entering for purposes of work. And you see that in Australia, Switzerland that time, 297 00:30:12,740 --> 00:30:22,690 UK workers were predominant in France to the United States, Sweden, Denmark, essentially family was dominant. 298 00:30:22,690 --> 00:30:30,400 In fact, in Sweden in 2003, only three percent of persons entering Sweden lawfully did so for purposes of work. 299 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:35,710 Almost all the rest were either seeking asylum or as family members of one kind or another. 300 00:30:35,710 --> 00:30:40,390 Huge variation over time. And this is just one example from France. 301 00:30:40,390 --> 00:30:48,070 It's impossible to present all the data from all the countries, not not least because it is not, is it not produced in comparable fashion? 302 00:30:48,070 --> 00:30:52,660 This is just some data from France, very much simplified in 2005, 303 00:30:52,660 --> 00:30:58,450 showing the proportion of people entering France again, this gross migration inflow only. 304 00:30:58,450 --> 00:31:07,180 We don't know what the pattern or balance would be for for the net flow of coming into France from the European economic area. 305 00:31:07,180 --> 00:31:10,880 That's the EU plus Switzerland, Norway and lots of other countries. 306 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:20,620 And this is from outside Europe. Only three percent of those entering France from Iowa were students, but. 307 00:31:20,620 --> 00:31:22,300 Thirty seven percent were workers. 308 00:31:22,300 --> 00:31:27,850 That's the single biggest category apart from other which includes retired people and all sorts of other categories. 309 00:31:27,850 --> 00:31:32,680 Quite different for those entry from Europe. A quarter of those were students. 310 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:42,070 Only five percent were workers, half were family. And and so you see this enormous contrast with about 80 percent of the inflow 311 00:31:42,070 --> 00:31:46,870 coming from outside Europe and 20 percent coming from from inside Europe. That's not not untypical. 312 00:31:46,870 --> 00:31:50,290 I think it's fair to say what goes on in the rest of Europe. 313 00:31:50,290 --> 00:31:55,690 I just happen to have these data for France. 314 00:31:55,690 --> 00:32:05,980 This shows the some of the underlying possibilities for for future flows you see here, the most developed countries are in are in red. 315 00:32:05,980 --> 00:32:14,620 This is the United Nations projection from 1950 up to 2050, almost in global terms, almost no change. 316 00:32:14,620 --> 00:32:21,340 This is the least developed countries, the poorest countries where where problems of poverty are at their most acute, 317 00:32:21,340 --> 00:32:23,220 starting off in really quite modest levels. 318 00:32:23,220 --> 00:32:32,080 The 1950s are mostly African countries, but also others now up to approaching two billion and of course, likely to be. 319 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:37,330 These are the ones where the demographic transition is least advanced and therefore the numbers are going to increase most rapidly. 320 00:32:37,330 --> 00:32:45,820 As you said, there's no sign of any tailing off in the rate of growth here, whereas in this is the world, in the in the less developed world, 321 00:32:45,820 --> 00:32:55,960 excluding those, there's a stabilisation going on as we see the reduction in the birth rate in China and India and various other countries. 322 00:32:55,960 --> 00:33:03,550 The economic disparities which which helped to drive migration are certainly 323 00:33:03,550 --> 00:33:09,670 great and are or certainly were increasing at least up to the end of this graph. 324 00:33:09,670 --> 00:33:20,530 This line here is the GDP per head in US dollars for various European countries as France, Italy, Spain and Germany. 325 00:33:20,530 --> 00:33:31,060 In this group here, down here is Turkey, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt showing growth, but not catching up at all with what's going on. 326 00:33:31,060 --> 00:33:42,390 That is despite improvements and progress. And here is a more focussed example of the difference, difference in pattern of growth, 327 00:33:42,390 --> 00:33:48,090 the red line here is a population of the North African countries which which send migrants to France and Italy particularly, 328 00:33:48,090 --> 00:33:53,220 but also elsewhere, showing that they were about the same size as those in southern Europe. 329 00:33:53,220 --> 00:34:01,110 That's the blue line in 1990 and according to the United Nations, are likely to diverge in this very remarkable fashion. 330 00:34:01,110 --> 00:34:06,540 The scale starts at 130. So it's not this is not zero. That's 100 million. 331 00:34:06,540 --> 00:34:14,370 Something similar with Turkey on the scale are 20 million at the bottom is not zero. 332 00:34:14,370 --> 00:34:20,040 In 1950, France, Italy and the U.K. had twice the population of Turkey. 333 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,550 By 2050, almost certainly because of population momentum. 334 00:34:23,550 --> 00:34:30,540 They will have half the population of Turkey and Turkey will overtaken Germany on its way down, which which has which is sandwich, 335 00:34:30,540 --> 00:34:35,130 which has some bearing upon the negotiations to allow Turkey to join the European Union, 336 00:34:35,130 --> 00:34:45,530 which in due course, of course, would be a free movement of labour. What proportion of the world's population are immigrants? 337 00:34:45,530 --> 00:34:53,930 It has gone up, but not by all that much. The global proportion as estimated by the United Nations, and you can imagine the problems of doing that. 338 00:34:53,930 --> 00:34:59,750 So don't put too much weight on it. Is this flat line in purple with the little squares. 339 00:34:59,750 --> 00:35:02,390 And as you can see, it's been going up. 340 00:35:02,390 --> 00:35:09,260 It started off at about two percent or just over two percent in 1960 is now gone up to just about three percent. 341 00:35:09,260 --> 00:35:12,930 That, of course, represents quite a large increase in the total number of people. 342 00:35:12,930 --> 00:35:16,790 This represents getting on for about 170 million people. 343 00:35:16,790 --> 00:35:23,870 Nonetheless, as a proportion of the world's population, it's important to realise it is not great and is only increasing modestly. 344 00:35:23,870 --> 00:35:33,290 Surprisingly, perhaps, the pattern of population proportion in Latin America and in Asia that are migrants has not been increasing very much. 345 00:35:33,290 --> 00:35:39,740 This is Latin America. This is Asia. These data are probably the least reliable of those on this graph. 346 00:35:39,740 --> 00:35:46,760 Nonetheless, that's what the data tell us insofar as there are any data the increase has been in North America, 347 00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:53,180 which is here, which, you know, and also in Europe, the European graph is exaggerated. 348 00:35:53,180 --> 00:35:58,130 And once again, I've got to revert to this tiresome topic of the unreliability of migration data, 349 00:35:58,130 --> 00:36:02,840 this big jump which has been smoothed by the graphing programme. 350 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:08,510 This big jump here is not an unusually large upsurge of migrants into Europe. 351 00:36:08,510 --> 00:36:12,320 Instead, it arises out of the collapse of the Soviet Union. 352 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:22,310 In 1991, there were 25 million people living in the non Russian republics of the Soviet Union who had so-called Russian nationality. 353 00:36:22,310 --> 00:36:28,730 This is an official category in Soviet terms, which which is a kind of official ethnic origin label. 354 00:36:28,730 --> 00:36:35,510 And those individuals had Russian nationality. Suddenly, when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, they became foreigners. 355 00:36:35,510 --> 00:36:42,470 They became foreigners instead of citizens in Afghanistan, in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, 356 00:36:42,470 --> 00:36:49,430 Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Belarus, 25 million in all. 357 00:36:49,430 --> 00:36:54,070 Some went back, some did not. But those were then counted as foreign. 358 00:36:54,070 --> 00:37:01,130 And that's that's why the graph jumps up. In fact, had the Soviet Union not collapsed, one might assume the graph would be like this going up, 359 00:37:01,130 --> 00:37:13,530 but not with this enormous increase of a sudden kind. This is an example of long, long term migration just to show how erratic migration can be. 360 00:37:13,530 --> 00:37:17,520 This is the trend of migration to the Asian states. Again, this is inflow. 361 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:24,770 There are no net migration data from the US. Going back to 1820 is one of the longest sequences of reasonably reliable data. 362 00:37:24,770 --> 00:37:30,270 Got, as you probably realise, increasing considerably. 363 00:37:30,270 --> 00:37:39,360 The erratic way as time went on. Also realised the United States had a very restrictive policy on migration after 1922, 364 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:46,080 not wishing to see the proportion of people of different origins change beyond the census that the census of I think nineteen hundred. 365 00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:50,940 And that brought it down to a level which very gradually recovered until the passage 366 00:37:50,940 --> 00:37:57,630 of legislation in the 1960s facilitated this major increase to the present level, 367 00:37:57,630 --> 00:38:07,530 which is about one million, roughly speaking, one million net gross inflow of legal migrants to the US with several hundred thousand illegal migrants. 368 00:38:07,530 --> 00:38:13,950 Also this huge spike here. Yes, I'm sorry, another tedious example of misleading data. 369 00:38:13,950 --> 00:38:17,850 This arises from the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, 370 00:38:17,850 --> 00:38:26,370 whereby very large numbers of persons who had entered illegally were legalised and they were then counted as immigrants in that year, 371 00:38:26,370 --> 00:38:35,160 even though they've been in the US for many years previously. So this spike is fake and refer to migration back here, which is not counted. 372 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:48,870 We'll see something like that later on. This is net migration into the UK from 1963, the first time that data are available up to 2009, 373 00:38:48,870 --> 00:38:56,070 the present level of net 240000, a quarter of a million extra people added per year as a result of international migration. 374 00:38:56,070 --> 00:39:00,690 And this is that divided by citizens. These are. 375 00:39:00,690 --> 00:39:08,410 UK citizens below, in in blue and in green, almost invariably negative, continuing the pattern of emigration from the UK, 376 00:39:08,410 --> 00:39:16,150 it's been going on ever since the 17th century or earlier, and the foreign citizens in red and in and in orange. 377 00:39:16,150 --> 00:39:22,840 I'm sure a very considerable increase, up to about 300000 net inflow per year and this divide and the need to have it in two 378 00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:27,610 different colours is because there's a discontinuity in migration statistics in 1991, 379 00:39:27,610 --> 00:39:32,890 which means that we don't exactly parallel or other comparable. 380 00:39:32,890 --> 00:39:41,740 And this is just to show that the the net immigration into the EU 15 is roughly the same magnitude as the gross inflow into the US. 381 00:39:41,740 --> 00:39:48,940 The EU 15 here is in blue and black. The person accepted the settlement in the US, the gross inflow is in red. 382 00:39:48,940 --> 00:39:56,740 EU, of course, has a bigger population in the U.S. Nonetheless, it's not the case that the US is way ahead of Europe in terms of migration flows. 383 00:39:56,740 --> 00:40:05,710 It isn't and probably won't be in the future. Also important to realise that migration can go down as well after reverse, 384 00:40:05,710 --> 00:40:13,930 the usual financial services health warning, this is migration into Germany from 1954 up to 2007, 385 00:40:13,930 --> 00:40:23,650 enormous inflow around about 1990 arising out of partly out of the collapse of communism and the rise of the inflows of persons of German origin. 386 00:40:23,650 --> 00:40:28,900 Alcivar into into Germany arising out of the German basic law. 387 00:40:28,900 --> 00:40:33,220 Also huge numbers of persons fleeing from the collapse of Yugoslavia around that time. 388 00:40:33,220 --> 00:40:37,170 That's one of the reasons why this is peaked at that time. 389 00:40:37,170 --> 00:40:46,020 Legal changes and the return of some kind of peace, Yugoslavia allowed that decline and migration to Germany has in some years actually been negative. 390 00:40:46,020 --> 00:40:54,010 This is zero. And here it is down down below zero in two thousand seven. 391 00:40:54,010 --> 00:41:00,040 This is overall migration, net migration in Europe in 1997, 2008, 392 00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:06,130 you can see in red the decline in migration to Germany, which I just described in the previous slide. 393 00:41:06,130 --> 00:41:13,900 The orange is is that to the UK showing the increase of from the 1990s up to the present time, which I mentioned. 394 00:41:13,900 --> 00:41:20,430 These, of course, are overall numbers looked at in percent, the pattern somewhat different. 395 00:41:20,430 --> 00:41:28,620 The levels of inflows into Switzerland and the Netherlands, for example, are very high in some countries higher than in Britain. 396 00:41:28,620 --> 00:41:37,860 Nonetheless, the growth figures are so the overall terms of in terms of people are not percent are, as far as we know, like that. 397 00:41:37,860 --> 00:41:42,000 I left these two out of that graph because otherwise they are distorted to scale. 398 00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:48,180 These are extraordinary levels of migration into Spain and Italy from 1997 onwards. 399 00:41:48,180 --> 00:41:51,960 In the past, Spain and Italy sent migrants to other European countries. 400 00:41:51,960 --> 00:42:00,150 Spain and Italy were on the the poorer fringe, especially in southern Italy of the the European industrial heartland. 401 00:42:00,150 --> 00:42:05,880 Lots of migrants went from from Spain and Italy, also Greece and Portugal into Germany, 402 00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:14,370 the Netherlands and France in the 1960s and 70s in order to work at the end of of. 403 00:42:14,370 --> 00:42:15,660 That period of time, 404 00:42:15,660 --> 00:42:22,800 the economy in those countries have grown so much that many of them went back and said that this great outflow of workers from those countries, 405 00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:27,960 from the poor periphery into the richer core stopped and was reversed. 406 00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:32,550 They were countries immigration, all that turned around in the 1990s. 407 00:42:32,550 --> 00:42:36,300 They become countries of immigration, particularly immigration from North Africa, 408 00:42:36,300 --> 00:42:44,430 much of it uncontrolled, informal, irregular or illegal, depending on which adjective you prefer. 409 00:42:44,430 --> 00:42:50,360 Eventually, these huge inflows were recognised progressively through amnesties initially, 410 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:55,690 which is why the the more people were counted, the numbers went up. 411 00:42:55,690 --> 00:43:01,800 So this is Spain and Italy, and most of this huge increase, up to 600000, 412 00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:09,360 is a result of people who have who previously not counted as having been in the country, 413 00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:13,870 being recognised naturalised, put into the data and therefore pushing up the numbers. 414 00:43:13,870 --> 00:43:14,600 This is enormous. 415 00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:23,130 Well, it's since gone down quite considerably, but that's a that's a whole order of magnitude different from the inflows into the rest of Europe, 416 00:43:23,130 --> 00:43:30,560 almost as much as that moving into the US for a few years. What are the consequences? 417 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:34,730 Very considerable, I'll skip that graph because I'm running out of time. 418 00:43:34,730 --> 00:43:42,380 First of all, nowadays, compared with the number of births, net migration is very large indeed is no longer statistically weak. 419 00:43:42,380 --> 00:43:49,670 Sister of demographic change. It is the paramount Egypt in population dynamics. 420 00:43:49,670 --> 00:43:55,130 What matters here are the solid numbers in the right hand column. You can ignore this. 421 00:43:55,130 --> 00:44:03,140 This shows the number of the number of net migration into that country in respect to the number of births. 422 00:44:03,140 --> 00:44:08,450 And there were 44 percent more migrants into Spain in 2007 than there were births. 423 00:44:08,450 --> 00:44:11,660 This is not it with the natural increase is comparing it with births. 424 00:44:11,660 --> 00:44:16,040 So more people are moving into Spain via migration, that they were born into Spain, 425 00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:23,570 about the same number in Switzerland and Italy, large numbers in Norway and Belgium, rather small numbers elsewhere. 426 00:44:23,570 --> 00:44:30,980 So a very important component of a population growth in population addition in those countries, 427 00:44:30,980 --> 00:44:34,280 in some countries facilitating further increase in numbers, 428 00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:43,760 in other countries slowing down or stopping or reversing population decline, which there are low birth rates would otherwise have generated in the UK. 429 00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:49,670 Migration is projected by the Office of National Statistics, a very, very powerful effect upon population size. 430 00:44:49,670 --> 00:44:54,290 Here we are in 2000 and about 63 million people. 431 00:44:54,290 --> 00:44:59,960 This blue line is the central projection that they are their basic idea about what's 432 00:44:59,960 --> 00:45:05,090 going to happen as a consequence of TFR remaining at one point eight for migration, 433 00:45:05,090 --> 00:45:11,270 assumed to be net 180000 per year, and mortality declining in some gradual fashion, 434 00:45:11,270 --> 00:45:19,490 increasing, as you see, to about 77 million by this century and eighty six million by 2030. 435 00:45:19,490 --> 00:45:27,050 While 2081 is an awful long time in demography of the one certain thing is that this will not happen in detail. 436 00:45:27,050 --> 00:45:32,510 But this is the implication of what will happen if the population continues in that pattern. 437 00:45:32,510 --> 00:45:37,320 And of course, we know now that that migration of the last few years has not been 180000. 438 00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:45,350 80000 is not in this one. It's been about 240000. That happens to be roughly the high migration estimate of of the UN. 439 00:45:45,350 --> 00:45:50,780 And this is what the population trajectory would be were migration to remain in net terms 440 00:45:50,780 --> 00:45:55,220 at the present level at TFR Tramaine at one point eight four and one point ninety five, 441 00:45:55,220 --> 00:45:58,970 in fact, even higher than that. I'm sure this will not come to pass, 442 00:45:58,970 --> 00:46:05,390 but it does show rather powerfully what the implications of migration are and how important migration is compared to the natural increase. 443 00:46:05,390 --> 00:46:14,060 This is the the natural change projections showing what would happen if there were no migration in or out. 444 00:46:14,060 --> 00:46:21,290 Some increase, as you see, thanks to population momentum, then returning to the present level by about two thousand sixty one or all the rest of the 445 00:46:21,290 --> 00:46:26,690 increase is the direct and indirect consequences of international migration as projected. 446 00:46:26,690 --> 00:46:35,330 Same thing in Sweden. Age structure, this is a diagram from the EU showing in percentage terms, 447 00:46:35,330 --> 00:46:41,720 the age distribution of migrants into the EU, into the EU compared with the settled population into the EU. 448 00:46:41,720 --> 00:46:48,560 It is not a diagram showing the relative size of the population and the relative shapes of the population is very important to realise. 449 00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:51,290 These are the migrants, this is the settled population. 450 00:46:51,290 --> 00:47:03,190 And you can see that it looks as though migration will will rejuvenate population because it is not, for the most part, involved older people. 451 00:47:03,190 --> 00:47:11,060 Migrants are moving in roughly at sort of peak working age that this is this is age 25 here. 452 00:47:11,060 --> 00:47:18,260 And therefore, that should be a very considerable benefit to the potential workforce and also should be a brake on population ageing. 453 00:47:18,260 --> 00:47:20,570 Well, it certainly is a brake on population ageing. 454 00:47:20,570 --> 00:47:27,740 And there was about 15 years ago a tremendous interest in the possibility of encouraging migration in order to stop population ageing, 455 00:47:27,740 --> 00:47:38,360 so-called replacement migration, which was provoked by a very interesting publication of Native Nations in in the 2000. 456 00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:43,430 You can't actually solve population ageing by migration is very important to realise, 457 00:47:43,430 --> 00:47:47,930 and that is now taken take it for granted in all learnt publications, 458 00:47:47,930 --> 00:47:52,880 even though journalists and politicians occasionally bring the idea up from time to time. 459 00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:58,340 This is what would happen to the UK potential support ratio at different levels of migration. 460 00:47:58,340 --> 00:48:06,830 The black line is what would happen to it at the what was then the level of migration of 95000 back in 1998. 461 00:48:06,830 --> 00:48:11,030 I think it was this is what would happen with a million migrants per year. 462 00:48:11,030 --> 00:48:18,290 As you see, it greatly increased. It greatly improves the support ratio, the ratio of people of working age to people of retirement age for a while. 463 00:48:18,290 --> 00:48:25,100 But eventually it goes down and will eventually reach quite low levels. 464 00:48:25,100 --> 00:48:30,050 This is inevitable. And as to any population at any level of migration, 465 00:48:30,050 --> 00:48:36,500 and this is the level of migration which you require in order to keep that line at the four point two level, 466 00:48:36,500 --> 00:48:42,290 which we saw before in terms of in terms of the consequences of migration, 467 00:48:42,290 --> 00:48:48,470 you need increasing numbers of migration to take the UK population up to 100, 120 million by the century. 468 00:48:48,470 --> 00:48:53,570 Three hundred and six million by the end of the century and so on, upwards into the stratosphere. 469 00:48:53,570 --> 00:48:59,380 It moderates ageing. It can't solve it. Nothing can solve it. 470 00:48:59,380 --> 00:49:06,700 The economic arguments for for large scale migration have been well rehearsed over the last 15 years. 471 00:49:06,700 --> 00:49:11,020 I have spent too much time on other topics to be able to deal with these. 472 00:49:11,020 --> 00:49:18,310 Even in the simplest outline. Essentially, the case for it is for an increase in gross domestic product, which undoubtedly does, 473 00:49:18,310 --> 00:49:27,760 because that's a function of population that it brings a tax benefit over, which is bigger than the welfare cost that is required for labour needs. 474 00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,360 And it does the natives no harm in terms of employment or standard of living. 475 00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:36,250 Some of these things are true. Some, I think are not true. 476 00:49:36,250 --> 00:49:43,480 Generally speaking, a lots of stories appear to show the fiscal effect is rather small and maybe negative. 477 00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:50,320 The balance between the tax benefit of migration and the welfare costs of migration that. 478 00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:54,880 The result depends very much on where the migrants come from, migrants from poor countries, 479 00:49:54,880 --> 00:50:01,420 from poor countries on the whole, generate a deficit of migrants from rich countries, on the whole generate a surplus. 480 00:50:01,420 --> 00:50:09,620 And the balance depends upon the balance of migration and various other things between those two major categories of person. 481 00:50:09,620 --> 00:50:18,350 I've put some some examples here which you might want to follow up later on legal migration, the case, I think, is stronger. 482 00:50:18,350 --> 00:50:25,730 There are many frictional processes and shortages which which make people find labour 483 00:50:25,730 --> 00:50:31,820 migration attractive or even essential for filling unfilled vacancies that can't be denied. 484 00:50:31,820 --> 00:50:39,440 Nonetheless, at the end of the day, we still find that unemployment is higher amongst first and second generation migrants. 485 00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:45,890 In most European countries, labour force participation rates are lower, particularly amongst women, amongst such persons. 486 00:50:45,890 --> 00:50:52,880 And that has got to be to remember the controversy rumbles on and the literature on it is very great. 487 00:50:52,880 --> 00:51:00,690 And so I'm like, so am I reading this? Have got have got references to that. 488 00:51:00,690 --> 00:51:08,880 There's a strategic problem in the sense that easy access to Labour, which naturally any sensible self respecting employee will want, 489 00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:16,980 will want to encourage irrespective of origins, may not be very good for the for the conditions of life of poorer, 490 00:51:16,980 --> 00:51:24,990 badly educated people in the receiving countries. This is one of the great centres of controversy at the present time. 491 00:51:24,990 --> 00:51:27,540 And if there is a constant supply of labour, 492 00:51:27,540 --> 00:51:35,850 then the awkward need to make semi unemployable young people in in the rich countries have had a very bad education. 493 00:51:35,850 --> 00:51:42,000 We have a very bad work ethic to make them into potential workers. It can be ignored because you can you don't need them. 494 00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:52,670 You can get them from overseas. And that is, I think, a kind of moral hazard or political hazard of too easy access to labour from from for employers, 495 00:51:52,670 --> 00:52:02,550 other beneficial for them and for the migrants. It may be finally continued migration from one population rather naturally at the end of the day, 496 00:52:02,550 --> 00:52:10,500 particularly if receiving population has below replacement levels of fertility will replace one population with another. 497 00:52:10,500 --> 00:52:15,450 This is very difficult to avoid. This is what is happening at the present time. 498 00:52:15,450 --> 00:52:21,720 This is a projection of the long term ethnic change in the UK and a different migration scenarios 499 00:52:21,720 --> 00:52:28,980 showing the decline of the projection of the of the population of the so-called white British origin. 500 00:52:28,980 --> 00:52:32,880 This is this, as you know, is is one of these rather unpleasant, 501 00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:37,560 awkward categorisations of people which people are invited to label themselves with in the 502 00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:42,840 census and in a wide variety of other national government and local government enquiries. 503 00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:46,500 And this this shows the trend downwards. 504 00:52:46,500 --> 00:52:55,080 This is the trend upwards in a number of different projections made by various European statistical offices showing the percentage of people 505 00:52:55,080 --> 00:53:05,460 of foreign origin in European countries going up from between 8000 and 18 percent at the present time in various European countries, 506 00:53:05,460 --> 00:53:13,890 up to 20 or 30 percent by mid century. Assuming, like the previous projection, that migration rates remain as they are so very considerable, 507 00:53:13,890 --> 00:53:17,280 ethnic change likely to take place has already indeed happening. 508 00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:23,160 Happened where 25 percent of births in Britain, Germany and France are two persons born abroad. 509 00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:34,680 So some conclusions. And so to have not lived up to my expectation of ending it at five to migration is a very, very heterogeneous process. 510 00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:40,830 This makes very difficult. It makes data difficult and puts in a slightly different category from births, deaths. 511 00:53:40,830 --> 00:53:46,560 Now, the primary driver of population change in developed countries and is is stopping 512 00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:50,310 population decline in some countries and greatly accelerating in others. 513 00:53:50,310 --> 00:53:58,990 Like Britain, like the US, like like like Sweden. Some countries still have very modest levels of migration, despite being very rich in the world. 514 00:53:58,990 --> 00:54:06,240 Japan, for example, has been resistant to migration, although many say that it needs it has very low birthrate and its increasing 515 00:54:06,240 --> 00:54:12,030 labour shortages and the economic consequences are mixed and controversial. 516 00:54:12,030 --> 00:54:18,330 Its demographic consequences are that it can moderate but certainly can't solve any more than kind of high fertility population ageing. 517 00:54:18,330 --> 00:54:25,950 But it does continue at the present time will lead to a very substantial transformation of population in terms of origin of a permanent kind. 518 00:54:25,950 --> 00:54:30,089 Thank you.