1 00:00:10,250 --> 00:00:15,710 I hope I didn't elaborate too much why I think it is that population matters in the world, 2 00:00:15,710 --> 00:00:21,800 these are the kind of topics which are normally cited when when thinking about population, 3 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:27,410 its challenges, its problems, its opportunities and all problems. After all, pressure on resources, very obvious point. 4 00:00:27,410 --> 00:00:35,810 When world population has reached now seven billion and is increasing by 70 or 80 million people per year, a diminishing number, of course. 5 00:00:35,810 --> 00:00:42,290 But nonetheless, it's still quite a challenge, particularly when global population is almost certain to add another three billion to 6 00:00:42,290 --> 00:00:47,180 that six billion with all kinds of questions as to the adequacy of of resources water, 7 00:00:47,180 --> 00:00:53,690 particularly in global climate change, but also food and other aspects of resources. 8 00:00:53,690 --> 00:01:00,320 These are on problems of security because this growth will not be equally distributed between different parts of the world. 9 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,350 Some parts of the world will grow, other parts of the world will shrink. 10 00:01:03,350 --> 00:01:07,430 The balance of power, therefore, will correspondingly change for demographic reasons. 11 00:01:07,430 --> 00:01:13,160 As we will see, urban growth is remarkable. We already have megacities of 20 million people. 12 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,300 These are going to grow even further in due course. 13 00:01:15,300 --> 00:01:22,670 And one wonders just how far they can grow before certain aspects of the infrastructure start breaking down or their governance starts breaking down. 14 00:01:22,670 --> 00:01:30,380 Other security problems arise of the kind which we've already seen here on television screens from time to time. 15 00:01:30,380 --> 00:01:34,650 There are also broader problems, as you will discover over the next two terms. 16 00:01:34,650 --> 00:01:39,500 There are some fundamental aspects of demography about which we are still ignorant. 17 00:01:39,500 --> 00:01:44,540 We don't really know why people in educated societies go on to have babies. 18 00:01:44,540 --> 00:01:49,220 We don't know how long we can continue to live longer and longer and longer and longer, 19 00:01:49,220 --> 00:01:52,450 which is what we are doing in the developed world at the moment. 20 00:01:52,450 --> 00:01:59,680 Seems to be life without end in a way, or at least survival in old age without end anyway. 21 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:05,980 What we think we know is this, we know, of course, as you will know, that all population projections are always wrong. 22 00:02:05,980 --> 00:02:12,940 This may, of course, be a statement which you may think requires me to leave the stage at once and even go on to something more amusing. 23 00:02:12,940 --> 00:02:19,960 The problem is that they're always wrong in detail. I don't think that matters as long as the approximate picture is about right. 24 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:25,450 And there are various ways which is usually right, as I hope I can go on to explain. 25 00:02:25,450 --> 00:02:31,390 And I put a lot of money on these propositions that follow on the three billion increase in world population. 26 00:02:31,390 --> 00:02:38,260 Almost inevitable. Almost all that increase is going to be in the developing world, not the rich countries, almost all of it in cities, 27 00:02:38,260 --> 00:02:46,270 not in the countryside, where many countries, even poor ones, population growth in the urban and rural areas have ceased. 28 00:02:46,270 --> 00:02:53,860 All birthrates will either stay low ish, round about two or not more than two, or get lower and lower populations. 29 00:02:53,860 --> 00:03:00,010 Almost all populations are getting older. Those, I think, are some certainties for the future. 30 00:03:00,010 --> 00:03:05,710 And what this means is, of course, that we have two problems at once in demography. 31 00:03:05,710 --> 00:03:11,670 Customs, I'm sure, to reading in the papers, first of all, about rapid increase in poor countries, 32 00:03:11,670 --> 00:03:16,090 about how that problem has been replaced by the problem of population ageing in 33 00:03:16,090 --> 00:03:21,520 richer ones as a consequence of low birthrates and media attention being what it is. 34 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,820 The first problem is that were displaced by the second problem. 35 00:03:24,820 --> 00:03:28,780 What the media have got to realise is you can you can actually have two problems at once. 36 00:03:28,780 --> 00:03:34,570 And we do have two problems at once. We have rapid growth in the poorest parts of the world, particularly in tropical Africa. 37 00:03:34,570 --> 00:03:44,200 We have rapid ageing and decline in richer ones Japan, Russia, Ukraine, most of Eastern Europe, Germany and elsewhere. 38 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,410 What we know we don't know are these things, 39 00:03:47,410 --> 00:03:55,320 we don't know what the effects of global warming or global climate change are actually calling on, population are going to be. 40 00:03:55,320 --> 00:04:00,840 The general expectation is that these these these effects will be deleterious, possibly highly deleterious, 41 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:05,130 if they make already hot and arid countries even more hot and even more added, 42 00:04:05,130 --> 00:04:10,050 it may make part of them incapable of sustaining any kind of human agricultural output and therefore 43 00:04:10,050 --> 00:04:18,690 provoke either a higher death rates or mass migration or some combination of difficulties of that sort. 44 00:04:18,690 --> 00:04:25,840 On the other hand, of course, other parts of global climate change make areas wetter, as we've seen probably this summer in England. 45 00:04:25,840 --> 00:04:28,680 That may be the future for the climate in this country. 46 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:34,890 Miserable jetstream whose displacement by Arctic warming you'll have heard all about in the papers. 47 00:04:34,890 --> 00:04:42,570 As I mentioned, we don't know why people in your kind of cities, highly educated, knowing about family planning, ever bother to have any children, 48 00:04:42,570 --> 00:04:46,470 given the enormous expense, given the 20 years of partial house arrest, 49 00:04:46,470 --> 00:04:52,110 which it involves, and all the rest of the inconvenience to one's career and fun? 50 00:04:52,110 --> 00:04:57,660 And also, we don't know whether the increase in lifespan, which we're experiencing one year after the other, 51 00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:02,740 is going to end every year you live, you get a bonus of two or three months extra life. 52 00:05:02,740 --> 00:05:08,900 And this has been going on for the last 20 or 30 years in countries like ours. 53 00:05:08,900 --> 00:05:14,360 One of the reasons why I've been so cocky about about being certain about the level or the 54 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:18,560 approximate level of future population growth is what you might call the demographers friend, 55 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:28,070 which is population momentum. That is the same. What happens in population is to a very considerable extent, determined by the existing age structure. 56 00:05:28,070 --> 00:05:32,240 And that, of course, is relatively unchangeable in the short run. 57 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:38,050 Two examples here on the left. You have got to Toivo. 58 00:05:38,050 --> 00:05:42,820 Yes, on the left, you've got the population pyramid in Uganda, that's in 1991, 59 00:05:42,820 --> 00:05:50,150 it's more than 20 years ago, it's still very much the same as much wider at all points. 60 00:05:50,150 --> 00:05:58,160 Now, about almost half of the population of Uganda is aged under 15, if the ladies of Uganda who present how about six children, 61 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,240 each on average decide tonight to have not more than two babies each. 62 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:11,990 The population of Uganda would still more than double. That's because there are so many potential young mothers coming on stream for the next 20, 30, 63 00:06:11,990 --> 00:06:17,300 40 years that they will generate more and more babies in proportion to the numbers of new mothers, 64 00:06:17,300 --> 00:06:24,710 even though they're only having two each so slow that momentum is guaranteed underwriting very substantial population growth. 65 00:06:24,710 --> 00:06:33,500 Unless the Ugandan government adopts the sort of Chinese one child or half child policy that would cut down the meant, nothing else is able to do it. 66 00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:37,710 Initially, there is negative momentum here. We have Italy in 1998. 67 00:06:37,710 --> 00:06:44,540 It's even worse now. As you can see, lower birth rates to produce smaller and smaller numbers of young people coming on stream. 68 00:06:44,540 --> 00:06:48,410 That means with AIDS eventually decide to have two children each. 69 00:06:48,410 --> 00:06:54,440 From now on, from tonight onwards, as opposed to their current output of roughly one point three, one point four, 70 00:06:54,440 --> 00:07:02,450 then the population of Italians in Italy will still continue to decline for the next 20 or 30 years before stabilising at a lower level. 71 00:07:02,450 --> 00:07:08,420 The Italian population itself may not do so because, of course, this large scale immigration into Italy, but of Italians, 72 00:07:08,420 --> 00:07:16,010 the number has been shrinking for some time and will continue to shrink until such time as the ladies of Italy decided to have their two child quota, 73 00:07:16,010 --> 00:07:19,790 which is the kind of replacement level in low mortality populations. 74 00:07:19,790 --> 00:07:27,650 So there is there are some underpinning to my rather strong comments about what's likely to happen here, there and everywhere. 75 00:07:27,650 --> 00:07:35,030 Nonetheless, uncertainty remains. These are the latest United Nations projections of world population. 76 00:07:35,030 --> 00:07:39,110 Demographers always hedge their bets and produce a central projection, 77 00:07:39,110 --> 00:07:46,880 which I think is the most likely outcome of future developments in population birthrates and population death rates and also say, 78 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:56,810 well, maybe it'll be higher, maybe a bit lower. And up here we have a medium variant so-called, which is this this blue line here. 79 00:07:56,810 --> 00:08:06,770 That's what the United Nations thinks is going to happen. Here are the the ten billion people coming up from from about three billion back in 1950, 80 00:08:06,770 --> 00:08:14,960 from today's seven billion in 2010 and twelve, and probably levelling out at about 10 billion. 81 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:20,010 But it might be higher or lower if birthrates decline more slowly than the UN supposes, 82 00:08:20,010 --> 00:08:26,570 then this is their estimate for the likely upper level of population size. 83 00:08:26,570 --> 00:08:33,590 If birth rates decline faster or if death rates go up unexpectedly, then this this one here is what they think may happen. 84 00:08:33,590 --> 00:08:39,170 Note, incidentally, that this one includes population decline on a global level. 85 00:08:39,170 --> 00:08:43,490 Most of my colleagues believe that global population will actually be declining because 86 00:08:43,490 --> 00:08:47,630 of generally falling birth rates by about two thousand and sixty two thousand seventy, 87 00:08:47,630 --> 00:08:52,990 hopefully, therefore, within your lifetimes. And that really is on the cards. 88 00:08:52,990 --> 00:09:01,960 It's already happening in populations totalling 500 million people in in Russia, in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, in general, Japan, Germany and elsewhere. 89 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:08,430 So a population decline may be a very interesting global phenomenon. Not everywhere, of course, but overall on average. 90 00:09:08,430 --> 00:09:12,520 And this is the average figure. 91 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:18,130 If things continue as they are, if there's no change, further change in birthrates or death rates. 92 00:09:18,130 --> 00:09:22,630 This is what will happen, an exponentially increasing population. 93 00:09:22,630 --> 00:09:30,310 Our analysis at constant rates going up to 25 billion by the end of the century and then in government as well. 94 00:09:30,310 --> 00:09:37,230 In the longer term future, that is not going to happen for one reason or another. 95 00:09:37,230 --> 00:09:47,220 Very briefly to note that while those are so-called deterministic projections, you have the structure, you choose a rate of change of the birth rate, 96 00:09:47,220 --> 00:09:52,020 a rate of change of the death rate, and you make a projection in a way that we will do later on this term. 97 00:09:52,020 --> 00:09:59,740 And you get a particular specific result if you introduce an element of uncertainty, a stochastic principle, into population projection. 98 00:09:59,740 --> 00:10:03,060 So there's a chance element in the variation of birth and death rates. 99 00:10:03,060 --> 00:10:09,980 Then you've got a so-called probabilistic projection becoming very fashionable in demographic circles and they give you an increasing, 100 00:10:09,980 --> 00:10:14,310 widening range of possibilities as time goes on naturally. 101 00:10:14,310 --> 00:10:21,780 The further you go into the future, the greater the level of uncertainty. And this fan shaped diagram illustrates this. 102 00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:32,580 The the average median level of population here, according to my my colleague, Wolfgang Knutson's associates in Vienna, is here in the red line. 103 00:10:32,580 --> 00:10:37,650 As you see, they think it will be declining from about two thousand and seventy onwards. 104 00:10:37,650 --> 00:10:45,150 But these these coloured bands indicate increasing levels of uncertainty as to where the population will be. 105 00:10:45,150 --> 00:10:49,170 And, of course, if you go into the future, this uncertainty gets bigger and bigger and bigger. 106 00:10:49,170 --> 00:10:54,030 Not terribly useful for planners because it doesn't really tell you what the demographers think is going to happen. 107 00:10:54,030 --> 00:10:57,930 But it does underline the uncertainty of population projection and the way in which 108 00:10:57,930 --> 00:11:05,470 estimates expand in uncertainty as you look further and further into the future. 109 00:11:05,470 --> 00:11:10,270 More interesting, perhaps, than looking at the global total look at the regions, the regions, of course, 110 00:11:10,270 --> 00:11:16,330 have their own specific age structures and their own specific patterns of birth and death rates, as you might imagine, 111 00:11:16,330 --> 00:11:21,940 low birth and death rates in the rich countries, high birth and death rates in the poorer ones, but always nowadays, 112 00:11:21,940 --> 00:11:28,390 much higher birth rates and death rates or death rates have gone down everywhere, thanks to modern medicine and development. 113 00:11:28,390 --> 00:11:38,410 And you see at the bottom here the lines of of Brazil, of the USA, of Japan, ingratiatingly decline. 114 00:11:38,410 --> 00:11:41,460 India, the pale blue line. 115 00:11:41,460 --> 00:11:49,500 Surpassing surpassing China in the not too distant future, but then projected probably to to start declining before the end of the century. 116 00:11:49,500 --> 00:11:58,710 China itself in red, almost certain to start declining by about 2035, even if the one child family policy is reversed, 117 00:11:58,710 --> 00:12:03,720 which is likely to be overtaken by India as the world's biggest population around this time. 118 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:11,460 But sub-Saharan Africa, which of course is not one country but many where birth rates remain very high, declining only slowly, 119 00:12:11,460 --> 00:12:21,570 scheduled to become the world's biggest major region by far abided by by mid century with no clear pattern of destabilisation. 120 00:12:21,570 --> 00:12:26,910 Even by the end of the century, he's assumed that population in tropical Africa will will eventually stabilise, 121 00:12:26,910 --> 00:12:30,210 will have to for one reason or another. But it's not really in sight yet. 122 00:12:30,210 --> 00:12:39,120 And as you can see, the demographic dynamics of the 21st century are going to be increasingly Africa going from quite small numbers back in 1950, 123 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,120 up to about three and a half billion. 124 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:48,450 But by the end of the century and the global total of about 10 billion, about a third of the world will be African by by the end of the century. 125 00:12:48,450 --> 00:12:56,020 On these assumptions, they're not likely to be hugely wrong short of some cataclysmic. 126 00:12:56,020 --> 00:13:04,630 These are just a list of some countries which are projected to grow fast and those operations decline substantially, 127 00:13:04,630 --> 00:13:08,560 this PowerPoint, by the way, like all of them, will be available on weblog. 128 00:13:08,560 --> 00:13:12,290 So there's no need for you to try and scramble desperately to write these numbers down. 129 00:13:12,290 --> 00:13:15,910 If that's not not necessary. 130 00:13:15,910 --> 00:13:20,230 Just just pick up the point that some countries are still growing very fast. 131 00:13:20,230 --> 00:13:25,930 Most of the ones in the left hand block, as you see, are in tropical Africa, Mali, Niger, 132 00:13:25,930 --> 00:13:31,720 especially projected to increase four times by the United Nations just by mid century, 133 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:40,220 despite the fact that, as you see in the papers quite often, Niger is in a terrible situation to the point of view of its sustainability. 134 00:13:40,220 --> 00:13:46,110 And overall, those populations increasing about three times in their present size between now and the century, 135 00:13:46,110 --> 00:13:52,850 on the other side, countries in population decline, mostly in Eastern Europe, also increasingly some in the Far East, 136 00:13:52,850 --> 00:14:03,740 the the ultra developed countries of the far eastern industrial areas, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, either already in population decline as Japan is, 137 00:14:03,740 --> 00:14:10,130 or about to tip into it, as Taiwan and South Korea are going to do with very severe levels of population ageing. 138 00:14:10,130 --> 00:14:16,340 But these are very much more prosperous situation than some of the countries in Eastern Europe, like Romania and Bulgaria, 139 00:14:16,340 --> 00:14:21,950 where the situation is very much worse and where death rates are considerably higher than the population. 140 00:14:21,950 --> 00:14:26,450 Ageing in Korea and Japan is made even worse by the extraordinarily long life of people 141 00:14:26,450 --> 00:14:34,820 in Japan arising out of their diet and social homogeneity and all the rest of it. 142 00:14:34,820 --> 00:14:39,260 What's certain is the demographic future is not European in the past. 143 00:14:39,260 --> 00:14:47,660 Europe, in the broad sense, Europe from Iceland to the Urals, has been about a fifth world population. 144 00:14:47,660 --> 00:14:53,870 That was true until sometime towards the end of last century. 145 00:14:53,870 --> 00:15:02,060 That's going to change. Europe's population is likely to end up as about seven percent, not 20 percent of world population. 146 00:15:02,060 --> 00:15:08,930 It's difficult to see how this can come about without a very considerable alteration of global economic power, 147 00:15:08,930 --> 00:15:14,550 military power, political influence and all the rest of it, some of which we are already beginning to see. 148 00:15:14,550 --> 00:15:28,690 And what we what we got here in subsaharan Africa, again in blue China, again in red Europe, is is this Europe in the broad sense? 149 00:15:28,690 --> 00:15:36,490 As is this great line here with the red squares on it, as you see more or less levelling out, 150 00:15:36,490 --> 00:15:39,820 they're still growing somewhat, partly because of population momentum, 151 00:15:39,820 --> 00:15:49,570 partly because of immigration from overseas and scheduled to decline slowly, by marked contrast to North America, 152 00:15:49,570 --> 00:15:59,660 which continues to grow considerably, as we will see in due course, thanks to high birth and thanks immigration. 153 00:15:59,660 --> 00:16:04,880 There's much talk, as those of you who read The Economist and other papers will have noticed, 154 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:14,660 about the way in which the vigorous populations of North America are overtaking in every sense demographic, 155 00:16:14,660 --> 00:16:20,840 economic, political and everything else, the ageing populations of so-called old Europe. 156 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:28,370 And this is somewhat true. The USA medium variant projection here in green. 157 00:16:28,370 --> 00:16:34,280 Shows the US already exceeding its first 300 million, which it did a few years ago, 158 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:43,130 heading for its first half billion by mid century and possibly going on to add another half billion by the end of the century, 159 00:16:43,130 --> 00:16:47,010 part because its birth rate remains quite buoyant and about two children per woman. 160 00:16:47,010 --> 00:16:51,110 And therefore, momentum keeps on driving the population up, partly because, of course, 161 00:16:51,110 --> 00:16:57,050 it's tended to hoover up large parts of the population of Latin America and also Asia. 162 00:16:57,050 --> 00:17:01,310 Immigration into the US is roughly about a million people per year, 163 00:17:01,310 --> 00:17:07,180 although for Mexico that's curiously gone into reverse, it would appear very recently. 164 00:17:07,180 --> 00:17:12,640 Europe, of course, is the European Union keeps on growing by adding more countries. 165 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:21,220 So while the United States has the same territory as more people, the European Union adds more territory and more people. 166 00:17:21,220 --> 00:17:27,040 Unfortunately, the additional countries from a population point of view of the point, who of any kind of population? 167 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:32,770 The countries which the European Union adds to itself are a dead loss from the point of view of population growth. 168 00:17:32,770 --> 00:17:38,440 They tend to be relatively poor countries in Eastern Europe, where death rates are relatively high, birth rates are very low. 169 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:42,460 Now one point two, one point three children per woman, 170 00:17:42,460 --> 00:17:54,230 and therefore they merely add to as a future projected levels of population decline unless something interesting happens, which it may. 171 00:17:54,230 --> 00:18:02,740 The Americans, not unreasonably, given the complexity of three dozen European countries rather prone to talk about Europe as a one place, 172 00:18:02,740 --> 00:18:05,480 well, there's no such thing as Europe, demographically speaking. 173 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:13,970 It's highly varied in the northern part of Europe and Scandinavia here, Ireland, possibly France, if you call that a northern Europe. 174 00:18:13,970 --> 00:18:19,010 Birth rates are quite robust, as close as is likely ever to be reached to replacement level. 175 00:18:19,010 --> 00:18:23,330 That is to say, one point nine five two point one, something of that kind. 176 00:18:23,330 --> 00:18:31,520 And consequently, northern Europe is projected to grow. That's the brown line at the bottom, partly because of its very buoyant birthrate, 177 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:40,010 partly because of the level of migration which which contributes very substantial to population growth in Britain and in Scandinavia, 178 00:18:40,010 --> 00:18:50,670 less so in France, southern Europe projected to to to level out and decline Western Europe, which includes Germany and Austria. 179 00:18:50,670 --> 00:18:52,640 And that kind of projected to decline. 180 00:18:52,640 --> 00:19:01,100 And some of them are already starting to decline in Eastern Europe, markedly declining, especially since the end of communism in nineteen eighty nine. 181 00:19:01,100 --> 00:19:04,760 Nineteen ninety one has been downhill ever since. 182 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:13,070 In terms of population size, not much immigration. There is some to Russia birth rates well below the replacement level. 183 00:19:13,070 --> 00:19:19,160 Death rates are relatively high for European centres, shockingly so for males in Russia. 184 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:25,520 And so partly because mostly because of this this major effect of decline in Eastern Europe, 185 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:29,210 if you put you add them all together and create something called Europe, 186 00:19:29,210 --> 00:19:34,370 you tend to get a very stagnant looking looking population pattern, 187 00:19:34,370 --> 00:19:42,140 which gives a rather misleading picture, I think, to some commentators, particularly across the Atlantic. 188 00:19:42,140 --> 00:19:46,550 And if you look even closer, you increase the magnification even further. 189 00:19:46,550 --> 00:19:53,930 And look at individual countries, you see some interesting things happening there for the greater part of the 20th century, 190 00:19:53,930 --> 00:20:00,590 the population of Germany has been by far the biggest of any of the individual Western European countries. 191 00:20:00,590 --> 00:20:09,080 And about 80 million people, as you can see from here, is Germany in red up to about two thousand. 192 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:14,390 This line here. Germany's population has now slipped into decline, 193 00:20:14,390 --> 00:20:24,950 most particularly the U.K. in purple and France in this dark colour here appear to be engaged in the kind of population race, 194 00:20:24,950 --> 00:20:34,640 almost neck and neck to see who could who could be next with the extraordinary U.K. population will actually exceed that of Germany by about 2040, 195 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:39,970 something which, of course, something of a sensation in the newspapers when that projection was released. 196 00:20:39,970 --> 00:20:44,660 This is partly because the UK's birth rate is quite high and has actually been growing, 197 00:20:44,660 --> 00:20:49,580 as has most of them in Western Europe over the last few years, but also because immigration, 198 00:20:49,580 --> 00:20:51,590 especially since 1997, has been very, 199 00:20:51,590 --> 00:20:58,310 very high to about one hundred and fifty two hundred fifty thousand extra people per year in net immigration terms. 200 00:20:58,310 --> 00:21:02,270 So very major transitions happening in Europe. 201 00:21:02,270 --> 00:21:10,190 If these things come to pass, then of course, it will have an effect upon economic power and political power on the balance of 202 00:21:10,190 --> 00:21:14,810 voting in the European Union and all the rest of it on a sort of miniature scale, 203 00:21:14,810 --> 00:21:21,320 rather like the balance of power changing in the whole of the world in the way that I pointed out earlier on, 204 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:30,710 will put Italy in green again, down Spain, incidentally, leaping up in this rather unrealistic and implausible fashion here. 205 00:21:30,710 --> 00:21:35,450 That's mostly because of an enormous influx of migration into Spain, 206 00:21:35,450 --> 00:21:39,710 which initially wasn't counted because most of it was illegal when it was counted. 207 00:21:39,710 --> 00:21:44,900 Then, of course, it made a big jump, suddenly an artificial jump in the population, which is reported for Spain. 208 00:21:44,900 --> 00:21:52,460 Most of the people were there already, but they hadn't been counted as people of hence the peculiar pattern of the Spanish population curve, 209 00:21:52,460 --> 00:21:59,660 even though even there, though, the birth rates low and decline will be on the long term horizon. 210 00:21:59,660 --> 00:22:05,840 This is just a projection of UK population to underline the importance of migration in 211 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:10,190 population growth in Britain and also in Norway and on to other northern countries. 212 00:22:10,190 --> 00:22:15,530 The blue line is the Office of National Statistics Central Projections. 213 00:22:15,530 --> 00:22:24,140 What they expect to happen going from sixty three million up to an astonishing eighty five million by 2070 or so. 214 00:22:24,140 --> 00:22:28,160 Of course, two thousand seventy also is a very long time in the future. 215 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:37,310 All sorts of things can happen, particularly migration, because it is influenced, if only imperfectly, by national population policies. 216 00:22:37,310 --> 00:22:43,160 And you know, the present coalition government has promised to reduce migration from, quote, 217 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,930 hundreds of thousands, tens of thousands unquit whether it can do so with the rise of some scepticism. 218 00:22:47,930 --> 00:22:53,360 But certainly it has made some changes of a controversial nature, which you will have heard about, 219 00:22:53,360 --> 00:22:58,350 no doubt in respect of overseas students, for example, to try and bring the rate of growth down. 220 00:22:58,350 --> 00:23:02,930 However, this is what's implied by recent figures. This is what is implied. 221 00:23:02,930 --> 00:23:06,710 If there are no migration at all, in or out, some increase, 222 00:23:06,710 --> 00:23:13,280 even without migration arising out of our old friend population momentum and then the population going back to the present, 223 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,830 63 million in about in about 50 years time. 224 00:23:15,830 --> 00:23:24,370 So no danger of population decline in the UK unless something really peculiar happens in the unforeseeable sort. 225 00:23:24,370 --> 00:23:31,390 Very important to realise, particularly in respect of migration, that migration can go down as well as up, we tend to assume, 226 00:23:31,390 --> 00:23:39,730 not unreasonably, that forces propelling migration from poorer countries to richer ones are powerful and difficult to reverse, 227 00:23:39,730 --> 00:23:47,500 either by the natural economic development or by policies of the kind which the coalition, for example, is trying to impose at the present time. 228 00:23:47,500 --> 00:23:53,140 Nonetheless, migration does go down for a whole variety of reasons political, economic and elsewhere. 229 00:23:53,140 --> 00:23:59,900 This is Germany, which for most of the 20th century was Europe's major importer of population. 230 00:23:59,900 --> 00:24:03,400 About a third of all international migrants to Europe went to Germany. 231 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:12,700 About a third of all asylum claimants went to Germany. But even even there, the pattern of migration was very much a roller coaster. 232 00:24:12,700 --> 00:24:19,060 Net migration is the blue line, which is this one here. 233 00:24:19,060 --> 00:24:23,770 As you can see, going up and down here is zero and here is minus. 234 00:24:23,770 --> 00:24:34,300 Here is plus and minus 100000, peaking in the 1990s in a kind of crisis situation where about 800000 people moved into Germany. 235 00:24:34,300 --> 00:24:42,910 But now, as you see, going down to very much low levels. And so therefore, of all the three components of population change versus migration, 236 00:24:42,910 --> 00:24:51,560 migration is by far the most volatile and the most difficult to incorporate into population projections, as this graph I think illustrates. 237 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:57,800 Ignore this one. I think this is just a contrast between various pairs of countries in Europe and outside, 238 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:07,100 perhaps the most amusing one is this here this is a comparison of the United Nations projections for for Russia and for Uganda. 239 00:25:07,100 --> 00:25:17,500 This is Russia here going down here is Uganda coming up from very low levels, allegedly overtaking Russia by about. 240 00:25:17,500 --> 00:25:22,240 Sometime towards the end of the century, not really likely to happen, 241 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:32,490 but it may do and it just shows the power of population growth and birth rates are six compared with one and a half. 242 00:25:32,490 --> 00:25:35,040 The basic driver of population ageing, 243 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:44,340 which is one of the major sources of economic and social interest in in Britain and elsewhere in the developing world is, 244 00:25:44,340 --> 00:25:48,750 of course, birth rates, low birth rates meet populations older. 245 00:25:48,750 --> 00:25:54,060 It's very important to realise that the major cause of population ageing is low. 246 00:25:54,060 --> 00:26:03,300 Fertility has been low fertility. It will become be replaced by higher, longer survival in due course once birth rates have been stable. 247 00:26:03,300 --> 00:26:08,010 So low level for a long period of time. So the population age structure stabilises. 248 00:26:08,010 --> 00:26:15,810 Then after that, the continued improvement in expectation of life, if it carries on, will be the major driver of population ageing. 249 00:26:15,810 --> 00:26:18,540 But contrary to what you might expect at the moment, 250 00:26:18,540 --> 00:26:24,660 it's still the effects of low birth rates that cause population ageing more than the effects of longer life. 251 00:26:24,660 --> 00:26:31,920 Or this balance will change as time goes on. And you can see here that there's considerable divergence between the birth 252 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:37,110 rates of different major groups of countries in in Western Europe and the USA, 253 00:26:37,110 --> 00:26:44,490 rather, in Europe as a whole. And USA at the top is the US with a birth rate round about the level of replacement. 254 00:26:44,490 --> 00:26:51,810 Just over to here is northern Europe creeping up to about to northern Europe, including Britain and Scandinavia. 255 00:26:51,810 --> 00:26:58,620 Western Europe bumbling along at about one point six or so down here in the doldrums. 256 00:26:58,620 --> 00:27:06,240 And Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in Greece all down at one time to about one point three, 257 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:11,520 one point four, which which, if continue, would generate very severe levels of population ageing, 258 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:16,860 very substantial levels of population decline, which some of them are indeed already experiencing. 259 00:27:16,860 --> 00:27:24,420 But it just emphasises if you ignore all the spaghetti around here, this is very confusing. 260 00:27:24,420 --> 00:27:29,670 If you look at this, this relatively stable pattern over the last 20 or 30 years ago, A, 261 00:27:29,670 --> 00:27:35,700 it points out the enormous variety of birth rates in apparently similar European countries with all 262 00:27:35,700 --> 00:27:41,700 sorts of powerful implications for divergence in their population size and their population ageing. 263 00:27:41,700 --> 00:27:47,460 It it underlines the fact that there's no such thing as Europe, demographically speaking. 264 00:27:47,460 --> 00:27:55,560 It also points out that, generally speaking, what you read about in the media still to a large extent about Europe's falling birthrate is 265 00:27:55,560 --> 00:28:01,530 idiotic because birth rates in most parts of Europe have not been falling since the 1980s, 266 00:28:01,530 --> 00:28:05,760 for the most part, except for Eastern Europe, for all sorts of crisis reasons. 267 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:11,130 And in general, they've been increasing and this is creeping upward slowly. This has been creeping up as more substantially. 268 00:28:11,130 --> 00:28:16,530 The US has been holding, holding constantly, even down here, as you see, they've been going up rather than down. 269 00:28:16,530 --> 00:28:21,420 That's been brought to a temporary, probably temporary halt by the current economic crisis. 270 00:28:21,420 --> 00:28:28,320 If this graph were totally up to date, it would show a bit of a movement down. 271 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,930 Not yet a substantial one. Have to wait and see what happens. 272 00:28:30,930 --> 00:28:37,220 In theory, of course, economic crises do make people postpone births and postpone union formation. 273 00:28:37,220 --> 00:28:43,100 Um, just to emphasise my point, these are a number of countries where the birth rate has been creeping up, 274 00:28:43,100 --> 00:28:45,960 I chose and particularly to make my point, I make no pretence. 275 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:51,470 This is a random sample, is not this is to emphasise the point of birth rates do go up as well as down in Denmark, 276 00:28:51,470 --> 00:28:58,040 France, New Zealand, US, Norway, UK and others I could have put in that would confuse the graph. 277 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:06,550 Some countries, therefore, are heading for what can generally be regarded as a manageable levels of ageing. 278 00:29:06,550 --> 00:29:14,470 That is to say, ones where sensible changes in pension age, sensible changes in a pension structure, 279 00:29:14,470 --> 00:29:19,030 sensible changes in workforce participation can stop population ageing being the 280 00:29:19,030 --> 00:29:23,560 economic and demographic catastrophe which the press like to pretend it's going to be. 281 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:30,700 However, if the birthrates right down at one point to one point three or even lower as it is in Taiwan and Hong Kong and elsewhere, 282 00:29:30,700 --> 00:29:37,840 then it's much more difficult to manage that demographic problem by economic and political management. 283 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:47,490 These are the the lowest low facilities of the industrial far east of Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Japan itself. 284 00:29:47,490 --> 00:29:54,140 As you can see, hovering not much more over one, some signs of recovery in some of them, no signs of recovery. 285 00:29:54,140 --> 00:29:59,570 In others, the Taiwanese total fertility rate is about one point one at the moment. 286 00:29:59,570 --> 00:30:02,670 In Hong Kong, it's nought point nine. 287 00:30:02,670 --> 00:30:09,440 That really is a major problem with even their very powerful economies may have some difficulty in insurmountable. 288 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:17,570 We will see. I mentioned the longer life was was was the was the norm, not everywhere. 289 00:30:17,570 --> 00:30:24,380 Some parts of Africa, thanks to the impact of AIDS, have been have been very severely put into reverse, although AIDS is now diminishing. 290 00:30:24,380 --> 00:30:28,250 Generally speaking, as Simon Gregson, my colleague, an expert on these matters, 291 00:30:28,250 --> 00:30:32,600 will point out to you later on, generally speaking, things are getting better. 292 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:38,450 But again, it's highly, very. This is the distribution of exploitation of a life at birth. 293 00:30:38,450 --> 00:30:44,210 Around 2000, these are quintiles, generally speaking, the darker the better. 294 00:30:44,210 --> 00:30:51,410 So there's areas where it's, well, yellow or orange have the worst survival, the highest death rates. 295 00:30:51,410 --> 00:30:57,740 Those were dark brown, the ones where survival is very interesting. 296 00:30:57,740 --> 00:31:00,560 Gradients of survival going east and west. 297 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:06,170 There's also one going north and south of the rather erratic kind of is not so obvious in that particular map, 298 00:31:06,170 --> 00:31:11,510 but lots of variation in expectation of life, even in the so-called developed world. 299 00:31:11,510 --> 00:31:19,920 And here you can see the divergence. Of expectation of life at birth in different countries from 1945 up to almost the 300 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:27,150 present day at about 2009 with the blue countries at the top are Switzerland, 301 00:31:27,150 --> 00:31:35,470 Greece, Japan and France, the countries of the bottom are going down. 302 00:31:35,470 --> 00:31:43,390 This is, um, this one is, uh, it must be Russia, I would guess this is Russia. 303 00:31:43,390 --> 00:31:47,650 This, I think will be Ukraine and this one probably Belarus. 304 00:31:47,650 --> 00:31:53,860 And here interestingly, we have we have Hungary, um, after this is a long standing problem. 305 00:31:53,860 --> 00:31:58,270 This is not just to do with the end of communism, as you can see from the nineteen sixties, 306 00:31:58,270 --> 00:32:04,240 that the trend of survival in all of these Eastern European countries diverge from that of the West and Germans. 307 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:09,100 We can got worse. This is males, whether the position is much worse than females. 308 00:32:09,100 --> 00:32:18,120 Um. Once countries change their social and political and economic structure like Hungary, 309 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,440 left the communist system abandoned state control joined the European Union. 310 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,220 You will see a marked change in trend of survival. 311 00:32:26,220 --> 00:32:32,010 This is Hungary's and also that of the Czech Republic that Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe, 312 00:32:32,010 --> 00:32:35,740 which is no longer part of the communist bloc of exploration. 313 00:32:35,740 --> 00:32:43,080 Life is improving at the same sort of rate as you would have expected it to improve over the last 50 years or so. 314 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,650 But but 50 years too late? Well, 50 years later, 315 00:32:46,650 --> 00:32:55,890 that is the same trajectory that just a lot of the time to pick up those which are unreformed for the most part in terms of politics and economics. 316 00:32:55,890 --> 00:32:59,490 Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are still stuck in this terrible, 317 00:32:59,490 --> 00:33:06,480 really very deplorable level of high male mortality, which which is a kind of mediocre third world level. 318 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:14,370 Sixty two. Sixty three, sixty four. It's about 10 years, 10 years lower than the current world average, 319 00:33:14,370 --> 00:33:20,490 which is really quite extraordinary exponential growth going up in most other countries. 320 00:33:20,490 --> 00:33:29,470 This is repeating what I've done before. Um, let's turn back to population ageing. 321 00:33:29,470 --> 00:33:35,350 These problematic aspects of population ageing, the effects, I think are pretty well known. 322 00:33:35,350 --> 00:33:39,430 I've listed them here that there's that there's an imbalance, 323 00:33:39,430 --> 00:33:44,470 a growing imbalance between that part of the population, which is productive, which is active in the workforce, 324 00:33:44,470 --> 00:33:50,200 which is earning money, paying taxes, supporting therefore a state pension systems, 325 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:59,230 a growth in those who are less economically active, consuming money, consuming tax tax, tax revenues and so on. 326 00:33:59,230 --> 00:34:05,020 On top of that, there's a problem of possible labour shortages, possible inflation and wages. 327 00:34:05,020 --> 00:34:06,050 As a consequence, 328 00:34:06,050 --> 00:34:16,150 problems of finding the provision for care for the elderly in terms of getting people to do it and or and some claim a less creative older workforce. 329 00:34:16,150 --> 00:34:20,470 Of course, I'm deeply opposed to this notion of decline, creativity with old age. 330 00:34:20,470 --> 00:34:27,630 It applies much more, it seems, to manual work, I'm glad to say, than than to know manual work. 331 00:34:27,630 --> 00:34:32,910 The the balance between different countries between now and the future is likely to change a lot, 332 00:34:32,910 --> 00:34:39,420 as you'd expect, from a very different pattern of birth rates, which we have now and expect in the future. 333 00:34:39,420 --> 00:34:44,070 This is the potential support ratio of what is a very simple calculation. 334 00:34:44,070 --> 00:34:52,380 It's simply the number of people of normally working age for every individual of nominally pension age, says certain number of people, 335 00:34:52,380 --> 00:35:02,400 roughly speaking, between 20 and 65 for every one person who's 65 and over, making a big assumption about workforce participation. 336 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:08,520 But it's a demographic measure. The the current level is the pale blue. 337 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:14,580 The dark colour is is the projected level in 2060. 338 00:35:14,580 --> 00:35:22,500 And you can see that there's a there's bound to be a halving of support ratio even in countries or a reduction by a third, 339 00:35:22,500 --> 00:35:31,380 even in countries with the birth rates quite favourable, like in France and the UK halving in Japan, a major reduction in China and South Korea. 340 00:35:31,380 --> 00:35:37,620 Over here on this side of the graph showing that the severity of the population ageing problem, which those countries, 341 00:35:37,620 --> 00:35:45,510 particularly China, is likely to experience the problems of China, as it's often said, it risks becoming old before it's rich. 342 00:35:45,510 --> 00:35:52,980 At least these countries over here have got high GDP per head and can sustain pension systems are quite expensive, 343 00:35:52,980 --> 00:35:58,040 much more difficult in China, despite the fact they're making some progress there. 344 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,220 This is the pattern of population ageing, which we've experienced, 345 00:36:01,220 --> 00:36:08,000 this is for a for Austria is typical of what goes on in the more extreme cases in Europe 346 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:13,370 and what will happen also in the developing world as refugees go down on the left, 347 00:36:13,370 --> 00:36:14,750 it's nineteen sixty nine. 348 00:36:14,750 --> 00:36:23,400 This population pyramid, by the way, in case you aren't familiar with it, is a very basic diagram in demography that the vertical axis is age. 349 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:30,620 The horizontal axis is the number of peoples in each age group on the left, males on the right and females nineteen sixty eight. 350 00:36:30,620 --> 00:36:37,400 Sixty nine have here Austria before the demographic transition. Likewise in 1910 not change. 351 00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:42,980 Big difference by nineteen thirty four huge chunks beaten out by the low birth rates of the First 352 00:36:42,980 --> 00:36:49,730 World War and a big chunk out of the male population here by the casualties of the First World War. 353 00:36:49,730 --> 00:36:56,240 And then after the First World War, a reduction in birthrates generating the start of population ageing. 354 00:36:56,240 --> 00:37:00,500 Nineteen fifty one. And we have this, this. 355 00:37:00,500 --> 00:37:07,250 All these things have moved up. The birth death of the First World War is now considerably older. 356 00:37:07,250 --> 00:37:14,930 We have another birth death from the Second World War and continued population ageing from from smaller birth rates. 357 00:37:14,930 --> 00:37:19,220 And then we have the baby boom. Amazingly, what no one forecast the baby boom. 358 00:37:19,220 --> 00:37:26,900 All those things that takes demographers by surprise makes us feel very embarrassed because we didn't forecast it. 359 00:37:26,900 --> 00:37:32,000 This revival of birth rates, revival of marriage in the 1960s and 1970s, 360 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:38,640 generating all these babies and generating a bulge and the subsequent pattern of population 361 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:44,300 structure in many European countries has been slightly like a python that swallowed a goat. 362 00:37:44,300 --> 00:37:47,930 His just having been swallowed. Here is the goat. 363 00:37:47,930 --> 00:37:56,540 He moved up the gut, as it were, as time goes on, being replaced by the other cohorts from lower birth rate years. 364 00:37:56,540 --> 00:38:02,180 And here it is just about into retirement and of course, much worse. 365 00:38:02,180 --> 00:38:08,510 The pattern of population is you have this huge influx of people born in the 50s and 60s who 366 00:38:08,510 --> 00:38:14,300 contributed very favourably to the workforce when they were more youthful and improved support ratios, 367 00:38:14,300 --> 00:38:22,220 improved productivity and output. Then moving into the the older age group here is twenty and thirty, 368 00:38:22,220 --> 00:38:30,770 making an existing pattern of population ageing and much worse so that the voters were moved right up to the top of the of the gut eventually, 369 00:38:30,770 --> 00:38:38,720 like goats and pythons, that is removed in this case by by, uh, by death, 370 00:38:38,720 --> 00:38:46,400 so that the baby boomers will be cluttering up the pearly gates instead of retirement homes and hospital wards to be replaced by more, 371 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:53,060 even if birth rates remain constantly low to replace an even population ageing, 372 00:38:53,060 --> 00:38:59,480 we move as well from Christmas tree shape that we had in 1891 to a kind of coffin shaped which is 373 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:06,350 more appropriate for the population pyramids of of countries with low birthrates in Eastern Europe. 374 00:39:06,350 --> 00:39:12,290 This this is like like Austria. Like Germany is worse in Eastern Europe, better. 375 00:39:12,290 --> 00:39:21,710 Much better in northern and Western Europe. And of course, this is these are drawn to a size because I'm using percentages. 376 00:39:21,710 --> 00:39:24,350 The actual size is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. 377 00:39:24,350 --> 00:39:30,740 And eventually this narrow coffin shape will get thinner and thinner and thinner and then disappear like the Cheshire cat. 378 00:39:30,740 --> 00:39:36,140 Unless the Austrians pull their socks off and increase their birth rate they don't know how to do. 379 00:39:36,140 --> 00:39:45,150 Um, here is here is UK population projection, a slightly different pattern of but as you can see, not the same proportion. 380 00:39:45,150 --> 00:39:49,610 So it is difficult to compare it. But you can see it looks slightly more healthy, obese in the middle. 381 00:39:49,610 --> 00:39:59,370 That's because of the projection level of migration. Other countries much worse, here's Japan in Taiwan and Japan in 2050, by the way, 382 00:39:59,370 --> 00:40:04,710 this, which you often see in population permits is what some peculiarity of a female. 383 00:40:04,710 --> 00:40:08,790 So there are lots and lots more females aged 100, aged Asia. 384 00:40:08,790 --> 00:40:16,460 Ninety nine is because that's the top age group. So everyone age 100 and above is piled into this top level. 385 00:40:16,460 --> 00:40:21,330 And so really it ought to be shaped like that. So that's that's Japan. 386 00:40:21,330 --> 00:40:27,120 Unless things change in the Japanese projections are terribly pessimistic, amazingly pessimistic. 387 00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:37,980 Population projections published on official Japanese government websites showing the actual disappearance of the Japanese population by about 20 30. 388 00:40:37,980 --> 00:40:44,140 They got the last Japanese on their graph. This is this is gloom, which cannot be justified. 389 00:40:44,140 --> 00:40:51,510 Things that won't happen. What will happen, I can't tell. I'm quite sure that won't happen even worse in Taiwan. 390 00:40:51,510 --> 00:40:58,650 And see this, it doesn't come up very well. This is the so-called transition from the bonus to the onus in demography. 391 00:40:58,650 --> 00:41:07,020 The bulge in the Taiwanese population, which they still got in 2010 here, you see is highly beneficial for the workforce. 392 00:41:07,020 --> 00:41:09,940 As long as the infrastructure is there and the investment is there, 393 00:41:09,940 --> 00:41:15,390 a very high proportion of the population is in the working age groups and therefore highly 394 00:41:15,390 --> 00:41:20,550 productive with a small burden of dependency from the young and still a small dependency, 395 00:41:20,550 --> 00:41:29,280 a burden for the old. By the time we get to 2060, which is, I see it, this pale shape here, of course, 396 00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:38,430 this this current bonus has turned into a into a penalty because all these people once productive and now 397 00:41:38,430 --> 00:41:45,630 in the retired age groups being replaced by much smaller cohorts of people who have to support them. 398 00:41:45,630 --> 00:41:50,690 Hence this problem of population ageing. 399 00:41:50,690 --> 00:42:01,490 The doctor was drinking and holding steady, however, questions, can we solve this in the developed world by immigration? 400 00:42:01,490 --> 00:42:05,850 It sounds tempting because most immigrants are in the middle part of life. 401 00:42:05,850 --> 00:42:10,400 There is about 10 years younger than the average of the population into which they're moving. 402 00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:15,140 The trouble is that it's a once you start that it never ends. 403 00:42:15,140 --> 00:42:19,220 This is the red line here shows the population size, 404 00:42:19,220 --> 00:42:26,390 which you would have to have in the UK from immigration if immigration were devised so as to keep 405 00:42:26,390 --> 00:42:30,890 the potential support ratio constant at the present level of four point what as you can see, 406 00:42:30,890 --> 00:42:35,630 it would take the population from about 63 million now to about 110 million by the 407 00:42:35,630 --> 00:42:39,840 end of the century to three hundred and six million by two thousand one hundred, 408 00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:50,750 then right up into the stratosphere and to become infinitely large and in fact, exactly the same thing for the Republic of Korea. 409 00:42:50,750 --> 00:42:59,120 If if you try to contrive to stabilise the potential support ratio for the Republic of Korea by international migration, 410 00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:03,170 then we'll all have to pack our bags and go there because it would take a cumulative total 411 00:43:03,170 --> 00:43:08,270 of six point five billion people to to preserve the support ratio in Korea by mid century. 412 00:43:08,270 --> 00:43:12,830 That happens to be world population size. So that's a fantasy calculation is correct. 413 00:43:12,830 --> 00:43:18,200 But obviously it's a fantasy. It just underlines the impossibility of solving population ageing by migration. 414 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:25,760 You have moderated. The council population ageing by migration, they can solve it by any other demographic means, 415 00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:30,200 either you can't solve it by higher birth rates, it makes it better, but it doesn't solve it. 416 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:35,660 Population ageing is a fundamental fact of population security, and we've got to cope with it. 417 00:43:35,660 --> 00:43:41,570 You can't make it go away. And all I hate to say this demography is not everything in this context. 418 00:43:41,570 --> 00:43:47,030 What also matters is the policies you've got for retirement age. 419 00:43:47,030 --> 00:43:53,870 The later the better for workforce participation rates, the higher the better for rational systems of pension. 420 00:43:53,870 --> 00:43:59,060 We don't give to high pension replacement rates to people when they retire and so on. 421 00:43:59,060 --> 00:44:02,630 Put all those things together as Jackson and how in Washington have done. 422 00:44:02,630 --> 00:44:08,090 And we've got an ageing vulnerability index which shows Australia coming out top, which still is. 423 00:44:08,090 --> 00:44:14,600 The UK since then has had a really severe problem with its pension system and will not deserve that second rank. 424 00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:18,050 Nonetheless, the US is not doing too badly of not doing too badly. 425 00:44:18,050 --> 00:44:21,020 Curious enough, Japan, which you have thought would be rock bottom, 426 00:44:21,020 --> 00:44:29,060 is doing quite well because its retirement age is so is so late and its workforce participation is so high. 427 00:44:29,060 --> 00:44:35,270 In France, where the long is good, that stands worse because its retirement ages is so early. 428 00:44:35,270 --> 00:44:45,080 As you know, Mr Hollande has reversed Mr Sarkozy's policy to increase it by miserable two years to a sixty two and put it back to 60 for some workers, 429 00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:49,190 which is a very retrograde step. It should be getting for 65, 67, 68. 430 00:44:49,190 --> 00:44:55,430 So for that and other reasons, France doesn't do as well as its demography would lead one to expect. 431 00:44:55,430 --> 00:44:59,790 But I must press on. Let's get to that. 432 00:44:59,790 --> 00:45:06,410 And yes, this ageing thing will happen, of course, in the developing world as well. 433 00:45:06,410 --> 00:45:15,320 It will hit China particularly badly. And this shows the population by age group in China and India by 2050. 434 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:24,410 You can see the large number of people in China moving into retirement ages and making the dependency ratio quite bad in India, 435 00:45:24,410 --> 00:45:29,870 where birth rates are declining or the BOJ will still be in the middle of productive years. 436 00:45:29,870 --> 00:45:37,250 If the Indian economy and an infrastructure can cope with this bulge of potential workers, it will do very well indeed, 437 00:45:37,250 --> 00:45:45,020 although of course it will eventually age, same as China has done, although more or less severely, but much later in time. 438 00:45:45,020 --> 00:45:47,270 And we can forget the Russian Federation. 439 00:45:47,270 --> 00:45:52,890 One final point, which is worth pointing out is not only of the demographic transitions in birth and death rates. 440 00:45:52,890 --> 00:45:59,870 So a very intriguing kind, but all these consequences for decline, growth, ageing and so forth, but also of ethnic change. 441 00:45:59,870 --> 00:46:07,460 The populations of the world are changing because of the large scale of migration, which some of them have received, notably the US. 442 00:46:07,460 --> 00:46:19,370 The United States is the first country in the Western world, the first country that I know of where what you might call the historically majority 443 00:46:19,370 --> 00:46:27,560 population of white Americans is going to become a minority by about 2040. 444 00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:30,500 This appears to be more or less graven in stone. 445 00:46:30,500 --> 00:46:38,120 And this is the official U.S. Census Bureau projection over two thousand and forty, only about 30 years time or so. 446 00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:44,870 All the minorities in America, the Hispanic minority, the Asian minority, the black minority, the Native American minority, 447 00:46:44,870 --> 00:46:52,100 will together become more numerous that than that of white Americans, white, non Hispanic Americans, I should say. 448 00:46:52,100 --> 00:46:56,360 And it is already the case that the number of births to those populations last 449 00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,900 year exceeded the number of births to the white non Hispanic population, 450 00:46:59,900 --> 00:47:05,750 as the American terminology classifies it, something similar happening in the Netherlands, 451 00:47:05,750 --> 00:47:11,900 actually about 30 percent of first and second generation population of foreign origin in the Netherlands by by mid century. 452 00:47:11,900 --> 00:47:18,020 Similarly, in many other countries of Western Europe, as a consequence of migration, this is Germany, USA, Netherlands, Denmark, 453 00:47:18,020 --> 00:47:27,640 Sweden and Austria, similar sort of rate of change, different sorts of levels, depending on migration and when it started. 454 00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:37,930 Um, and. One of the complicating factors is, of course, that these categories of people, white, non, Hispanic, white, British, 455 00:47:37,930 --> 00:47:45,940 black, Caribbean and all the rest that are used in censuses and surveys and and enquiries of various kinds are not fixed. 456 00:47:45,940 --> 00:47:54,970 Not only can people change that identity if they are asked what they think they are and people do change their identity in response to questions. 457 00:47:54,970 --> 00:48:03,580 But also people of mixed origin become more and more common as a sex and love start to triumph, as it were, over bureaucratic categorisations. 458 00:48:03,580 --> 00:48:09,550 Large, larger and larger numbers of people are happy to say they are of mixed origin. 459 00:48:09,550 --> 00:48:11,830 In the 2001 census in this country, 460 00:48:11,830 --> 00:48:19,390 about six hundred and sixty thousand people who said that they were a mixed origin is much larger in the 2011 census. 461 00:48:19,390 --> 00:48:22,390 We haven't got the final figures yet. Here are three famous ones. 462 00:48:22,390 --> 00:48:30,460 The chap on the left you would probably recognise this is a prise racing driver, Mr. Hamilton from Britain. 463 00:48:30,460 --> 00:48:37,480 The lady up there was was, um, a contender for Miss France, and she is also a mixed race. 464 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,840 She was actually dismissed from her competition for some picadillo and I 465 00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:46,380 imagine she'd seek asylum in Britain from the cruelties of French bureaucracy. 466 00:48:46,380 --> 00:48:57,730 The populations of that kind of became more and more numerous. They will eventually, if that continues, fudges the edges of all these categorisations, 467 00:48:57,730 --> 00:49:05,020 different sorts of people, and and make ethnic classifications possibly meaningless and maybe redundant. 468 00:49:05,020 --> 00:49:11,620 So a few concluding points. Population ageing is inevitable. 469 00:49:11,620 --> 00:49:19,470 We can moderate it. We can't we can't stop it or solve it in the strict sense of the word solve in the. 470 00:49:19,470 --> 00:49:27,150 Different phases of demographic transition are going to generate a very considerable shift in population representation from Europe, 471 00:49:27,150 --> 00:49:34,860 from Asia, from Africa, with major demographic losers and and with us in the very long run, 472 00:49:34,860 --> 00:49:40,920 this is going to make a big difference in the power structures of the world, because in due course, 473 00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:50,700 as poorer countries become rich, economic military rank will become equivalent to population size, as it was in the past. 474 00:49:50,700 --> 00:49:55,590 The version of the Rancourt of the past will re-establish itself as wealth and power 475 00:49:55,590 --> 00:50:01,200 become more evenly distributed across the different populations of the world. 476 00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:10,080 There are still serious problems of fast growth in poor countries, as well as problems of ageing and decline in some rich ones. 477 00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:17,100 One of the major uncertainties, which I think is is a really big question mark over some of these graphs I will 478 00:50:17,100 --> 00:50:21,000 show you is the possible effects of climate change on some of these populations, 479 00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:24,780 which appears to be likely to make things worse for much worse. 480 00:50:24,780 --> 00:50:31,200 But for some of those in tropical areas, and even without the incorporation of climate change, 481 00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:35,220 the projections world population is expected to be in decline of twenty seventeen. 482 00:50:35,220 --> 00:50:40,740 It may be that climate change will make it decline even faster than we expect on that point. 483 00:50:40,740 --> 00:50:48,840 I will stop. What I propose we do is have a few minutes break and then I will resume the second half 484 00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:54,930 of this rather punishing schedule at about five past 11 or so and then about five, 485 00:50:54,930 --> 00:51:00,970 five to 12. Thank you very much.